Chourio, who was born in March 2004, will very likely be the youngest player in the majors. It’s nevertheless not all that surprising that he’s breaking camp after signing an $82MM extension in December. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, that’s by far the largest guarantee for a player who had yet to make his MLB debut. Chourio only has six games of Triple-A experience but turned in above-average numbers in the Double-A Southern League a season ago.
The right-handed hitter put together a .280/.336/.467 slash with 22 home runs and 43 steals over 559 plate appearances. That came against much older competition in a league where testing of the pre-tacked baseball led to increased break on pitches and proved a challenge for hitters. Chourio fared better in the second half after the league reverted to the traditional baseball, including a scorching .388/.447/.718 showing in July.
That firmly established him among the sport’s top handful of minor league talents. Chourio ranked second or third on Top 100 lists from Baseball America, FanGraphs, ESPN, The Athletic and MLB Pipeline this offseason. He’s a potential franchise center fielder with a rare combination of power and athleticism.
To the extent there’s risk with Chourio, it’s that he has shown an aggressive plate approach. He walked at a modest 7.3% clip in Double-A, although that’s hardly an overwhelming concern given his youth. Chourio kept his strikeouts to a solid 18.4% rate and showcased his physical gifts.
In 13 games this spring, he’s hitting .283/.313/.348. He has three doubles, no homers, and a 10:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. They’re not overwhelming numbers, but it has been an impressive enough performance to reaffirm to the front office that he’s ready for an aggressive major league assignment. There’d be little reason to call him up if the club weren’t confident he can hold down the everyday center field job.
The Venezuela native will be at the center of a talented outfield at American Family Field. Christian Yelich should see the bulk of his time in left field with sporadic work at designated hitter. Former first-round pick Garrett Mitchell could slide to right field, where Milwaukee could also turn to Joey Wiemer or Sal Frelick. Their stockpile of outfield talent was enough that the Brewers have considered moving Frelick to third base, although the acquisition of Joey Ortiz in the Corbin Burnes trade gives them the flexibility to keep the Boston College product on the outfield grass if they like.
With a pair of club options tacked onto the end of his eight-year guarantee, Milwaukee already controls Chourio well beyond his six-year service window. The Brewers could still benefit from the Prospect Promotion Incentive if he performs well enough to merit award consideration.
Assuming Milwaukee keeps him in the majors for a full service year, Chourio would earn the Brewers an extra draft pick at the end of the first round if he wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the top three in MVP balloting within his first three seasons. That’s certainly not an easy task. He faces an uphill battle in a Rookie of the Year race where Yoshinobu Yamamoto stands as the favorite and a top-three MVP finish is a tough ask of even the sport’s elite players.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
]]>It’s a massive hit to the Milwaukee bullpen two weeks before Opening Day. Williams made two appearances this spring before pausing his work as he battled back soreness. He visited a spine specialist this afternoon. That examination revealed the fractures. Fortunately, Passan indicates that Williams is expected to make a full recovery.
That the injury shouldn’t affect Williams throughout his career is a positive, but there’s no question it’s a significant loss for the first half of the upcoming season. The two-time All-Star is among the best relievers in baseball. He has turned in a sub-2.00 ERA in consecutive years, including a sparkling 1.53 mark over 58 2/3 frames last season. Williams shut down 36 games in 40 attempts in his first full campaign as a closer. He rode his patented wiffle ball changeup, the so-called Airbender, to a massive 37.7% strikeout percentage. Williams was named the National League’s Reliever of the Year for the second time in his career.
As is the case with virtually every Milwaukee player approaching free agency, Williams found himself in trade rumors during the offseason. That speculation returned after they dealt Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, but Milwaukee didn’t find a deal to their liking. They elected to keep him at the back of the bullpen instead. Williams should eventually return to the ninth inning, but he’ll now begin the season on the 60-day injured list and will be out of action at least into the middle of June.
It’s unclear if Milwaukee skipper Pat Murphy will go with a committee approach to the ninth inning or pick a defined closer while Williams is on the shelf. If they go the latter route, any of Joel Payamps, Abner Uribe or Trevor Megill could be candidates. Payamps was somewhat quietly one of the more productive relievers in the NL last season. The secondary piece acquired in the William Contreras/Sean Murphy three-team trade, Payamps turned in a 2.55 ERA with plus strikeout, walk and ground-ball numbers across 70 1/3 innings.
Uribe has more traditional closing stuff. One of the hardest throwers in the sport, he averaged a blistering 99.4 MPH on his sinker as a rookie. Uribe turned in a 1.76 ERA behind a 53% grounder percentage and a 30.7% strikeout rate over his first 30 2/3 MLB innings. It’s eye-popping stuff, but his command could keep him out of the ninth inning. Uribe walked more than 15% of opponents last season.
Megill, acquired in a minor trade with the Twins last April, struck out nearly 36% of batters faced as a Brewer. He worked to a 3.31 ERA through 32 2/3 frames. Megill averaged 99.1 MPH on his heater, which he paired with a wipeout curveball in the mid-80s. Having that trio of power arms means Murphy should still have a good relief group with which to work, yet there’s no one who can be expected to replicate the production that Williams posts on an annual basis.
Milwaukee controls Williams via arbitration through the 2025 season. He’s making $7MM this season. Milwaukee has a $10MM option for next year but could retain him in arbitration even if they opt for a $250K buyout instead of the option value. If Williams progresses as expected, he should be back on the mound before the deadline. There’s a chance he’d be a midseason trade candidate if the Brewers unexpectedly fall out of contention in the NL Central, but the offers they receive could be complicated by other teams’ trepidation about the injury.
]]>Turang, 24, was the No. 21 overall pick in the 2018 draft and ranked among Milwaukee’s top prospects for several years before making the 2023 Opening Day roster and debuting in the majors. He posted above-average but not elite numbers in Triple-A during the 2022 season prior to that MLB debut, but his first year in the big leagues highlighted some of the limitations in his game. Turang has long been touted as a plus defender and plus runner, but he hit just .218/.285/.300 in 448 plate appearances last season. The resulting 60 wRC+ suggests that Turang was a whopping 40% worse than average at the plate.
While Turang’s 21% strikeout rate was a bit lower than the league average and his 8.5% walk rate was sound, he also put together one of the weakest batted-ball profiles in the sport. Turang ranked in just the fifth percentile of MLB hitters in terms of barrel rate, per Statcast, while his 26% hard-hit rate landed in the fourth percentile and his 85.5 mph average exit velocity placed in only the second percentile. Turang’s sprint speed was elite, but even in spite of his wheels he batted just .268 on balls in play because of that penchant for feeble contact.
Even amid questions about his offensive outlook, the glove and speed will land him another Opening Day nod at second base. That sets the Milwaukee infield everywhere but the hot corner. Rhys Hoskins has first base locked down. Willy Adames will return at shortstop. Heading into camp, it looked like the third base job could be Joey Ortiz’s to lose, but Milwaukee’s decision to experiment with top outfield prospect Sal Frelick at third base has created more of a competition.
Murphy and Brewers infielder coordinator Matt Erickson have heaped praise onto Frelick for his work at third base this spring, writes Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. The 23-year-old has “immediately” checked every box the team would like to see in terms of his footwork in the infield, Erickson tells Hogg, expressing further confidence that Frelick’s mechanics on more difficult on-the-move throws can improve with experience. Erickson noted that the overall package of defensive skills at third base is still not on par with others in camp, but that’s to be expected for a player who didn’t even play at the hot corner in his amateur days. Moreover, both Erickson and Murphy are amazed that Frelick has already come as far as he has.
The result could be something of a split workload for Frelick between right field and third base. The Brewers acquired the slick-fielding Ortiz alongside left-handed rotation hopeful DL Hall in the trade sending ace Corbin Burnes to Baltimore. Ortiz, like Turang, is considered a plus defensive shortstop but won’t get much opportunity at that position due to the presence of Adames. He could log considerable time at the hot corner, though Adler suggests Ortiz could also see time at second base against left-handed pitching. He’s a right-handed bat and natural option to spell Turang, who hit just .188/.278/.188 (35 wRC+) against southpaws.
A strict platoon arrangement for the group might not be the answer, however. While Ortiz can play either third or second against lefties, both Turang and the lefty-swinging Frelick (.184/.279/.289, 59 wRC+) struggled greatly in limited action against left-handed pitching. Right-handed-hitting Andruw Monasterio turned in a .291/.387/.392 slash (118 wRC+) against lefties and could spend time at third base if/when Ortiz slides over to the keystone to spell Turang against southpaws. Similarly, outfielder Joey Wiemer (.267/.298/.517, 115 wRC+ against lefties) could potentially spell Frelick against lefties.
If anything, Frelick’s burgeoning versatility and the blend of right- and left-handed-hitting infield/outfield options only gives Murphy more fuel to play matchups against opposing pitchers. Importantly, all of Turang, Ortiz, Frelick, Wiemer and Monasterio grade as above-average to plus defenders at their respective positions (at least, in the case of the outfield with regard to Frelick). There’s considerable opportunity for all five to work their way into the lineup for semi-regular playing time, if not more.
As far as the Milwaukee rotation is concerned, there’s still some fine tuning to be sorted out, but one open question became clear this week when Murphy confirmed that right-hander Colin Rea will be in his rotation (via Adler) He’ll be penciled into a starting staff that also includes Freddy Peralta and Jakob Junis. Veteran Wade Miley has been behind schedule due to shoulder troubles but progressed to facing teammates in a simulated game today, tweets Hogg. A firm timeline for his return remains unclear and dependent on how he continues to progress.
Rea, however, will be assured a starting job. That’s a notable development for a journeyman right-hander who’s bounced from the Padres, to the Marlins, to the Cubs, to the Brewers, to Japan and back to Milwaukee. The 33-year-old pitched 124 2/3 innings for the Brew Crew in 2023, logging a 4.55 ERA with strong command and solid ground-ball tendencies but a slightly below-average strikeout rate. He’s been sharp so far in spring training, firing eight innings — including four no-hit frames his last time out — with a dozen strikeouts and just two walks.
Rea inked a one-year, $4.5MM deal back on Nov. 2. He’ll earn a $3.5MM salary in 2024 and is guaranteed that plus a $1MM buyout on a $5.5MM option for the 2025 season. He can also pick up an additional $500K of incentives each season, based on innings pitched, giving him the opportunity to earn $10MM over the next two seasons in Milwaukee.
]]>Williams, 29, has established himself among the game’s most elite closers in recent years. Though the right-hander made his debut late in the 2019 season, he retained rookie eligibility into the 2020 season, which saw him dominant to an superlative 0.33 ERA with a 0.86 FIP in 27 innings of work, a strong enough performance to earn him the NL Rookie of the Year award during the shortened season. Since then, he’s settled in as one of the most reliably dominant relief arms in the game, having compiled a microscopic 1.75 ERA and 2.26 FIP in 200 1/3 innings over the past four years while striking out a whopping 40.5% of batters faced.
He enjoyed a characteristically excellent season in 2023, posting a 1.53 ERA in 61 appearances while collecting a career-best 36 saves and striking out opponents at a 37.7% clip. That dominance led to some trade speculation this winter as the club parted ways with both manager Craig Counsell and ace right-hander Corbin Burnes, though no deal ever came together regarding Williams and it’s unclear if the Brewers even shopped their relief ace. The right-hander remains under team control in Milwaukee through the end of the 2025 season, so it’s possible the club could look to part ways with Williams at some point in the future, but for the time being the right-hander appears poised to return to his role as Brewers closer come Opening Day if he’s healthy enough to take the field.
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]]>Donaldson, now 38, took a winding path to the major leagues and was a late bloomer, but he nonetheless reached incredible heights as a big leaguer once everything aligned.
While playing third base at Auburn University, he began to learn how to catch. The Cubs then selected him as a catcher with the 48th overall pick in the 2007 draft. In July of 2008, he was traded to the Athletics, one of four players going to Oakland in exchange for Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin.
As he climbed the minor league ladder with his new club, his bat was considered ahead of his glove, an understandable situation given that he was relatively new to catching. He made his major league debut in 2010 but hit just .156/.206/.281 in his first 34 plate appearances.
He was stuck in the minors in 2011 and then spent 2012 being shuttled between the majors and the minors, gradually spending more time at third base over that stretch. His breakout season finally came in 2013, when Donaldson was 27 years old. Now done with catching for good, he got into 158 games for the A’s that year as their everyday third baseman. He hit 24 home runs and drew a walk in 11.4% of his plate appearances, only striking out at a 16.5% rate. His .301/.384/.499 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 147 and he got strong grades for his defense at the hot corner, leading to a tally of 7.3 wins above replacement from FanGraphs and 7.2 from Baseball Reference. He finished fourth in American League MVP voting.
Donaldson followed that up with a similarly excellent season in 2014 and the A’s made the postseason for a third straight year, but made a quick playoff exit all three times. The club decided to undergo a huge roster overhaul that winter, a frequent occurrence for the club and its persistent financial concerns. Going into 2015, the club traded away guys like Brandon Moss, Jeff Samardzija and also flipped Donaldson to the Blue Jays for a four-player package.
His first season in Toronto would eventually prove to be the best of his career. He launched 41 home runs and slashed .297/.371/.568 for a wRC+ of 154. The Jays won the A.L. East that year and Donaldson launched another three home runs in that year’s playoffs as the Jays advanced as far as the ALCS. He was graded as worth 8.7 fWAR and was voted as that year’s A.L. MVP, just ahead of Mike Trout.
He would go onto to have another excellent season for the Jays in 2016, hitting 37 home runs that year as they advanced to the ALCS yet again. He scored the winning run in the ALDS by dashing home from second on a fielder’s choice to secure an extra-inning victory over the Rangers.
But in 2017, injuries started to crop up, which would go on to be a key issue in the rest of his career. He was still excellent that season, slashing .270/.385/.559 while hitting 33 home runs, but was limited to 113 contests due to a calf strain. He and the Jays agreed to a $23MM salary for 2018, his final year of arbitration control. Since the Jays had fallen to fourth place the year prior, there were some trade rumors around Donaldson that winter but he ultimately stayed put.
He spent much of that year on the injured list due to shoulder and calf issues. With the Jays out of contention at the August waiver deadline, he was flipped to Cleveland for Julian Merryweather. Donaldson only played 16 games for Cleveland after that deal as he continued battling his injuries.
He finally reached free agency that winter, but with a limited amount of momentum. Thanks to his late-bloomer trajectory, he was going into his age-33 season and coming off an injury-marred campaign. Alex Anthopoulos, who acquired Donaldson when he was making decisions for the Blue Jays, had become the general manager in Atlanta prior to the 2018 campaign. He gave Donaldson a one-year “prove-it” deal worth $23MM.
Donaldson bounced back tremendously with Atlanta, getting into 155 games, walking in 15.2% of his plate appearances and hitting .259/.379/.521 for a 131 wRC+. He then rejected a qualifying offer from Atlanta and then signed a four-year, $92MM deal with the Twins. Issues with his right calf cropped up again in 2020, as he only played 28 games during that shortened season, but was able to get into 135 contests the year after and launch 26 home runs in the process.
With two years still left on that deal, the Twins flipped him to the Yankees alongside Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ben Rortvedt, with Gio Urshela and Gary Sánchez going the other way. Donaldson was healthy enough to get into 132 games in 2022 but his production tailed off. He only hit 15 homers and struck out at a 27.1% clip, leading to a line of .222/.308/.374. He spent much of 2023 on the injured list and was released at the end of August, joining the Brewers for the stretch run before returning to free agency this winter.
It wasn’t a storybook ending but Donaldson nonetheless managed to weave together quite a career. Despite not truly breaking out until the age of 27, he still managed to get into 1,384 games and rack up 1,310 hits. That latter figure includes 287 doubles, 12 triples and 279 home runs. He had matching tallies of 816 runs scored and runs batted in, stealing 40 bases in the process. He received an MVP award, three All-Star selections and two Silver Sluggers. His fiery personality which drove him to succeed also rankled some people around the game, as he often quarrelled with umpires, coaches and fellow players, but that combination of his talent and prickly character will likely lead him to being one of the more memorable players of his era. We at MLBTR salute him on his many accomplishments and wish him the best in whatever comes next.
]]>YESTERDAY: Brewers left-hander Wade Miley may not be ready for Opening Day, manager Pat Murphy tells Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Murphy said it’s a “50-50” shot that Miley is ready for the opener but declined to provide any details. “We’ll let you know more in about 10 days,” he said.
It’s a vaguely ominous update that comes out of nowhere, as there hasn’t been any previous reporting to suggest that anything was up with Miley. He hasn’t yet appeared in a Spring Training contest, but that’s true of a lot of pitchers at this relatively early stage of the spring.
Meaningful conclusions can’t be drawn without more information but the rotation depth in Milwaukee is weaker than it has been in a long time, so any kind of uncertainty will be concerning. Brewers fans have been able to enjoy a staff fronted by co-aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff for the past few years, but that won’t be the case in 2024. Burnes has been traded to the Orioles while Woodruff will be out for much of the year recovering from shoulder surgery.
On paper, the rotation now projects to be fronted by Freddy Peralta, followed by some combination of Miley, Jakob Junis, Colin Rea, DL Hall, Joe Ross, Aaron Ashby and Janson Junk, with plenty of uncertainty in that group. Junis has done some solid work of late but mostly in a swing role, having not topped 112 innings since 2019. Rea had a decent season in Milwaukee last year but that was his first meaningful big league action since 2016. Hall is not too far removed from being a notable prospect but there are concerns about his control and workload. Ross didn’t pitch in the big leagues in the past two years due to Tommy John surgery, the second of his career. Ashby missed all of last year after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his throwing shoulder. Junk has just 32 big league innings and a 4.42 ERA in his Triple-A work.
Amid all of that uncertainty, Miley was going to be one of the more reliable options, despite his own history. Now 37 years old, he hasn’t topped 170 innings since 2015. Only twice since 2017 has he thrown more than last year’s 120 1/3 innings. He missed time last year due to a left lat strain and left elbow discomfort but still made 23 starts, though elbow and shoulder issues limited him to just 37 frames the year prior.
While there’s no clarity on what’s currently holding back Miley or how serious it is, his personal injury history and the lack of established rotation options is undoubtedly a situation worth monitoring for the Brewers. Despite the losses of Burnes and Woodruff, the club still aims to contend this year, having spent money on players like Junis, Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sánchez to help them defend their division title.
If the club eventually decides it needs further additions, there are still options available in free agency at this late stage of the winter. It would be a shock to see the low-spending Brewers pursue a marquee name like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery but a run at someone like Michael Lorenzen, Jake Odorizzi or old friend Eric Lauer isn’t out of the question. RosterResource lists this year’s club payroll at $109MM. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club had an Opening Day payroll of $119MM last year and $132MM the year prior.
There could perhaps be some powder dry there for another move, even though we’re now in the month of March. Another alternative could be for the club to turn to its prospect depth. Robert Gasser and Jacob Misiorowski are two of the club’s most notable prospects, though neither is on the 40-man roster and Misiorowski has made just five starts above High-A.
]]>Herget became a minor league free agent at the start of last offseason. The 32-year-old had logged a career-high MLB workload with the Reds a season ago. He pitched in 14 games and tossed 24 1/3 innings of mostly low-leverage relief. He allowed 5.18 earned runs per nine with a well below-average 12.4% strikeout rate. Herget missed more bats at the Triple-A level, where he fanned 22.7% of opponents in 47 1/3 frames. His 5.13 ERA in the minors wasn’t far off his big league work, largely on account of an elevated home runs rate (1.52 HR/9).
A former 39th-round pick, Herget has spent a decade in professional baseball between five organizations. He first reached the majors two seasons back, making three appearances for the Rays. Herget has logged 31 1/3 innings of 5.74 ERA ball at the highest level. He owns a 4.25 mark over parts of six seasons at Triple-A.
Herget brings plenty of upper minors experience to Milwaukee camp. He’s likely to start the year as a long relief depth option at Triple-A Nashville. He still has a pair of minor league options remaining, so the Brewers could freely move him between the majors and Nashville if they add him to the 40-man roster at any point.
]]>A second-round pick by the Angels back in 2015, Jones is a former top-100 prospect who’s struggled in a trio of brief looks at the MLB level between Anaheim, Baltimore and Milwaukee. He’s taken just 90 turns at the plate in the big leagues and produced a .179/.233/.226 line with a dismal 36.7% strikeout rate.
The 26-year-old Jones is a more accomplished minor league hitter, however — as evidenced by a career .251/.377/.436 slash. He’s posted a far more manageable 21.9% strikeout rate at that level while also walking in a huge 15.4% of his 857 plate appearances. Jones has connected on 25 homers, swiped 25 bags and added 42 doubles and seven triples during his time in Triple-A. He’s a right-handed hitter who, in addition to more than 3400 career innings at second base, has logged nearly 1700 innings in center and more than 500 in left field.
Whether Jones sticks on the big league roster in New York is a fair question. He’s out of minor league options, meaning he can’t be sent to Triple-A Scranton without first passing through waivers. The Yanks could carry Jones on the bench in place of Oswald Peraza or Oswaldo Cabrera, opting to get either (likely Peraza) everyday playing time in the minors with a regular role not currently available on the big league roster. Alternatively, the Yankees might simply hope to turn around and pass Jones through waivers themselves, which would allow them to keep him on the Scranton roster as a depth piece who no longer commands a 40-man roster spot.
That same fate could await the 24-year-old Groshans. Like Jones, he’s a former top-100 prospect whose stock has dimmed in recent years. Groshans has just 65 MLB plate appearances and a .262/.308/.312 slash to show for it. His .253/.350/.322 output in 940 Triple-A plate appearances isn’t much better. He’s primarily played on the left side of the infield, splitting time in near even fashion between shortstop and third base, but Groshans does have more limited experience at second base (76 innings) and first base (396 innings) as well.
Groshans does have a minor league option year remaining, which could make him appealing to another club via waiver claim or minor trade. The Yankees will have a week to find a trade partner or complete the process of passing him through waivers. If he goes unclaimed, Groshans could be assigned outright to Triple-A and retained as a non-roster depth option. He lacks the major league service time and prior outright assignment to reject an outright from New York.
]]>Health is just one of many uncertainties hanging over India as he begins his fourth Major League season. Already the subject of frequent trade rumors due to Cincinnati’s plethora of up-and-coming infield talent, India looks to be moving into a utility role if he remains with the Reds, as he could be playing all over the infield, at DH, and perhaps in left field.
Other items from around the NL Central…
February 22: The Royals announced the signing of catcher Austin Nola to a major league contract. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (X links) first reported the deal. Kansas City placed Kris Bubic on the 60-day injured list to clear an opening on the 40-man roster.
Nola, a client of Paragon Sports International, had been in camp with the Brewers on a non-roster pact. GM Matt Arnold told reporters this evening that Milwaukee was granting him a release to pursue other opportunities (relayed on X by Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel).
Milwaukee indeed has a fairly crowded catching depth chart. Nola was never going to supplant William Contreras as the starter. At the time he agreed to his deal on January 5, the backup role was going to be held by Eric Haase. Milwaukee added a clearer #2 catcher this week when they signed Gary Sánchez. Haase remains on the roster and is out of options. There was little chance of Nola securing an MLB job in camp unless one or two of the players above him suffered an injury.
It’s the second straight year in which Sánchez has blocked Nola’s path to big league playing time. That’s largely on account of the latter’s recent struggles, particularly last season. He’d been the Opening Day catcher for the Padres in each of the last two years. He got off to a very poor start in 2023, hitting .146/.260/.192 over 52 games. San Diego optioned him to Triple-A in mid-July, relying on the tandem of Sánchez (whom they’d claimed off waivers a few weeks earlier) and Luis Campusano for the stretch run.
Nola only appeared in eight Triple-A contests. He spent some time on the minor league injured list. In September, he revealed that he’d been diagnosed with oculomotor dysfunction, a vision disorder. While that could’ve played a role in his dismal production, it was nevertheless an easy call for San Diego to non-tender him. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected him for a $2.35MM salary if he were offered an arbitration contract.
That ended an overall disappointing tenure in Southern California. The Padres acquired Nola at the 2020 trade deadline from the Mariners. While the LSU product had hit .280/.351/.476 in a limited sample with Seattle, he managed a .234/.314/.320 slash over 819 plate appearances as a Padre.
His formerly strong defensive marks also dropped precipitously. Nola had rated as an above-average framer and blocker early in his career. Over the past two seasons, he has received very poor grades in both departments. Nola has roughly average arm strength.
Despite the recent struggles, he gets a 40-man roster spot in Kansas City. The Royals have Salvador Pérez and Freddy Fermín as the two catchers on the 40-man. Fermín played well enough last year to hold the backup job. Nola still has one minor league option remaining, though, so K.C. could keep him at Triple-A Omaha as needed.
Nola has four years and 45 days of MLB service. Players with five years of service can no longer be optioned, so Nola would have the right to refuse additional minor league assignments once he crosses the five-year threshold. That won’t happen until the second half of next season at the earliest. The Royals could keep him around for 2025 via arbitration, so it could be a multi-year pickup if Nola finds his form.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
]]>Last year, the Brewers took the division fairly easily, going 92-70 and finishing nine games up on the second-place Cubs. But a lot has changed since then and there could still be more changes to come. The “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger remain unsigned, as do several other free agents. One of those players joining an NL Central club could change the calculation but let’s take a look at where things stand now, in order of last year’s standings.
Brewers: 92-70 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79
The reigning champions have undergone some significant changes, particularly in their rotation. Brandon Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery late last year, with the rehab putting his 2024 season in jeopardy. He was non-tendered and re-signed but won’t be a factor until late in the upcoming season, if at all. On top of that, the club traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, meaning they are now without both of their co-aces from recent years.
That makes the rotation clearly weaker than it has been in previous seasons, even though they did acquire some reinforcements. DL Hall came over in the Burnes trade and the Brewers will give him a chance to earn a rotation job. They also re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea in addition to bringing in Jakob Junis and Joe Ross to back up Freddy Peralta, who has now been vaulted to the top spot. Prospects Jacob Misiorowski and Robert Gasser could push for roles during the season.
While the starting rotation has clearly been diminished, the lineup should be better. They didn’t lose any core pieces from last year’s position player mix while they have signed free agents Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sánchez for some extra thump. Prospect Jackson Chourio should be up to make his debut this year while other young players like Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang will hopefully continue to take steps forward. Joey Ortiz, who came over in the Burnes deal alongside Hall, could seize a role on the infield.
Cubs: 83-79 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 80.8
The Cubs have been retooling for a few years but just narrowly missed a return to the postseason in 2023. Their finished 83-79, just one game behind the Diamondbacks and Marlins, who got the last two Wild Card spots. They then saw Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario and Marcus Stroman become free agents, subtracting two regulars from the lineup and a starter from the rotation. Candelario since jumped to the Reds and Stroman to the Yankees, though Bellinger is still out there.
In the rotation, Stroman has effectively been replaced by the signing of Shota Imanaga. The Cubs signed him in January and it’s hoped that he can supply at least some mid-rotation production to make up for the loss of Stroman, slotting in next to Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks. A bounceback from Taillon could arguably make the rotation even better this year. The same could be said about a step forward from rookie Jordan Wicks, who debuted last year.
In the lineup, the Cubs are hoping that Michael Busch can be a difference maker. Acquired from the Dodgers in an offseason trade, he has always hit well in the minors but was blocked from seizing a role on his previous club. He’ll take over the first base spot, which was a bit of a hole for the Cubs last year. Bringing back Bellinger to center field still seems possible, but until it happens, the plan appears to be to count on Pete Crow-Armstrong to seize a job. The youngster is considered a great defender but his bat is questionable. Mike Tauchman is on hand if PCA doesn’t make a case for himself.
Signing Chapman to take over third could be a logical move but it’s also possible the club could slot Christopher Morel there. He has an exciting amount of power in his bat and his throwing arm, but concerns about his defense and propensity for strikeouts. Still, the bar is not too high for him to be better than guys like Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom.
Reds: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 79 wins in 2024, PECOTA 78.7
A surge of young position player talent was almost enough to vault the Reds into the playoffs last year. They did that despite a team-wide ERA of 4.83 and and 5.43 mark from their starting rotation. No significant contributors to the 2023 club reached free agency, so even just a bit of internal improvement could make them a contender.
But the Reds weren’t just going to rely on their incumbent options, as they have been fairly active this offseason. They added Candelario to their position player mix despite already having plenty of bats for their lineup. That should give them some cover for any of their young players suffering some regression or an injury.
They also bolstered the pitching staff which, as mentioned, was an issue last year. Free agents Frankie Montas, Nick Martínez, Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter were all signed to the roster. Montas is coming off a lengthy injury absence but was quite effective the last time he was healthy. Martínez could be a back-end addition for the rotation or he might wind up in the bullpen with Pagán and Suter. They could also get better just via health, as no one on the club logged 150 innings last year as each of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft spent time on the IL, while Andrew Abbott didn’t debut until midseason.
Pirates: 76-86 in 2023, FG projects 77 wins in 2024, PECOTA 73
Somewhat similar to the Reds, the Pirates also rode a wave of young talent last year, though it didn’t have the same staying power. They were in first place in the division as late as June 15 but faded as the season wore on and finished outside contention.
They were facing almost no roster losses, as their most significant free agents from 2023 were Andrew McCutchen and Vince Velasquez. McCutchen re-signed while Velasquez only made eight starts last year anyway due to elbow surgery. But they faced other challenges as right-hander Johan Oviedo and catcher Endy Rodríguez both required UCL surgery this offseason and will miss all of 2024.
With Rodríguez out, the club is hoping Henry Davis can pivot back behind the plate and take over. They signed veteran Yasmani Grandal as a bit of insurance in case things don’t work out with Davis. They grabbed a couple of veteran starters as well in Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales, hoping that duo can over for the losses of Oviedo and Velasquez as well as the struggles of Roansy Contreras. The impending debut of prospect Paul Skenes could also help in that department as well, with Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler perhaps not far behind.
The lineup hasn’t drastically changed, with Rowdy Tellez brought in as a bounceback candidate. Perhaps their most impactful lineup upgrade could be the health of Oneil Cruz, who missed most of 2023 due ankle surgery. They also signed Aroldis Chapman to help David Bednar form a lockdown late-inning duo.
Cardinals: 71-91 in 2023, FG projects 83 wins in 2024, PECOTA 84.7
Many predicted the Cards to win the division last year but it clearly did not happen. Plenty of things went wrong, particularly on the pitching side of things, and they ended up in the basement. The team-wide ERA of 4.83 was better than just five teams in the majors, with the 5.08 rotation ERA even worse. Adam Wainwright’s swan song turned out to be ear-splitting while Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty also struggled. Depth guys like Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Jake Woodford were all bad to varying degrees.
Remaking the rotation was the clear priority this winter and they have been active in that department. They quickly signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson at the start of the offseason to replace Flaherty, Montgomery and Wainwright. Sem Robberse, Adam Kloffenstein, Tekoah Roby and Drew Rom were all acquired at last year’s deadline and could make the emergency depth stronger. Victor Santos was added this offseason as part of the Tyler O’Neill trade.
Not too much has changed on the position player side of things. As mentioned, O’Neill was shipped out but the club is hoping to replace him internally. The emergence of Masyn Winn at shortstop means that Tommy Edman is probably now an outfielder full-time, assuming Winn produces better results than he did in his debut last year. Bounceback performances, particularly from Nolan Arenado, will be key. In the bullpen, Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton were traded last summer. The Cards traded for Andrew Kittredge and signed Keynan Middleton to try to make up for those two departures.
Compared to the other divisions in the big leagues, this one is the hardest to decide on a clear favorite. The Brewers are the defending champs but have lost their two aces. Can the extra offense make up for that? Was it a rare blip that the Cardinals were so bad last year? Have the Cubs done enough to get over the hump? Can the Reds or Pirates get enough improvement from their young players to surge ahead?
What do you think? Have your say in the poll below!
]]>The Associated Press reports the specifics. Sánchez will make a $3MM salary and has a buyout on a 2025 mutual option. The buyout figure could rise as high as $4MM depending on how much time Sánchez spends on the MLB roster or injured list for a fracture or ligament tear in any area of the body other than his right wrist.
He’d receive the full $4MM buyout if he reaches 150 days on the active roster or IL for a notable non-wrist injury. That dips to $3MM for 120-149 days, $2MM for 90-119, and $1MM for 60-89 days. There’d be no buyout for 59 days or fewer. The deal also contains a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade.
Sánchez broke his right wrist when he was hit by a pitch while playing for the Padres last September. While that was the initially reported cause of the contract restructure, Sánchez told reporters this evening that he recovered fully from that incident (link via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Via translator, the catcher indicated he injured his hand while working out over the offseason, which he says was the cause of the team’s concern.
In any case, ironing out the issue positions Sánchez to serve as a backup catcher/DH for the Brew Crew. He joins first baseman Rhys Hoskins and trade pickups Jake Bauers and Joey Ortiz as offseason additions to a reworked offense. Jack Magruder of MLB.com writes that Ortiz, acquired from the Orioles in the Corbin Burnes deal, could see action at both second and third base.
Ortiz has played mostly shortstop in the minors but doesn’t have a path to regular playing time there in 2024, barring a surprising late Willy Adames trade. Brice Turang is the frontrunner for reps at the keystone, although he’s coming off a well below-average .218/.285/.300 batting line as a rookie. Turang is a former top prospect who played strong defense, so it’s likely the Brewers will give him another run. That’d leave Ortiz vying with Andruw Monasterio and perhaps Owen Miller at third base.
In other Brewers news, Milwaukee added a former big leaguer in a non-playing capacity. Justin Bour announced (on X) that he’s taking on a role in the player development department. Bour hit .253/.337/.457 in parts of six MLB seasons between 2014-19. He finished fifth in NL Rookie of the Year balloting when he hit 23 homers for the Marlins in 2015. Bour played in a few foreign leagues before announcing his retirement as a player last February.
]]>Milwaukee placed the righty on the 60-day injured list within a couple hours of announcing the deal. That created the necessary 40-man roster spot for Gary Sánchez, who also finalized his contract on Wednesday.
Woodruff, 31, has spent his entire career with the Brewers but it seemed like that relationship was perhaps going to end at some point. Not too long ago, the Brewers had three key players that were all on track to make eight-figure arbitration salaries in 2024 before reaching free agency. Woodruff was one of those, along with fellow righty Corbin Burnes and shortstop Willy Adames. Given the way the club operates, it was expected that at least one of that group would be traded for salary relief and to restock some future talent.
But Woodruff dealt with shoulder issues throughout 2023 and wound up requiring surgery in October, which put his 2024 season in jeopardy. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected the righty for a salary of $11.6MM, a hefty amount for a pitcher who may not throw at all this year, especially for a lower-budget club like the Brewers. They reportedly explored some trade scenarios but ultimately just non-tendered Woodruff, sending him out to free agency.
That gave every club the chance to sign him, with the Mets having reported interest at one point. Their new president of baseball operations David Stearns is plenty familiar with Woodruff, as his time with the Brewers began the year after the righty was drafted. But in the end, Woodruff will be returning to Milwaukee to continue his tenure as a Brewer.
A two-year deal was always the most likely scenario for Woodruff. Pitchers facing lengthy layoffs like this, usually due to Tommy John surgery, often sign such pacts. That time frame allows the player to collect a paycheck while injured, while also giving the club a chance to potentially get a healthy full season at a relatively discounted rate. Woodruff’s situation is slightly different since he’s coming back from shoulder surgery rather than elbow surgery, but the logic is the same.
When healthy, Woodruff has been one of the better pitchers in the game. He has a 3.10 earned run average in his career, having struck out 28.9% of batters faced, walked just 6.5% of them and kept 42.8% of balls in play on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 650 innings pitched since the start of the 2017 season, that ERA ranks sixth in the majors.
But staying on the mound has been a bit of an issue for him, as he’s yet to hit 180 innings pitched in any big league season. In his big league career, he’s gone on the injured list due to a strained left oblique, a right ankle sprain and the aforementioned shoulder problems from last year.
Regardless, the Brewers are surely happy to get Woodruff back into the fold, as his results have clearly been excellent when he’s been able to take the ball. They have subtracted Burnes from this year’s rotation, having traded him to the Orioles, leaving Freddy Peralta as the de facto ace. They also acquired DL Hall in that Burnes deal, with the lefty hoping to earn a rotation spot this year. They also re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea while adding Jakob Junis and Joe Ross into the mix via free agency.
If Woodruff can get healthy by the end of the year, he’ll jump into that mix and help the club for the stretch run. Looking ahead to 2025, there’s not a lot of certainty for the Milwaukee rotation. Peralta is entering the final guaranteed year of his contract, though he has $8MM club options for next year and the year after, with those a virtual lock to be triggered as long as he’s healthy. Miley and Junis have mutual options for next year, with those almost never picked up by both sides. The club has a ’25 option for Rea at a modest $5.5MM salary and $1MM buyout, making it a net $4.5MM decision, but it’s not a lock they would trigger that with his inconsistent track record. Hall still isn’t established as a capable big league starter.
Taking all of that into consideration, there’s very little that can be written in ink for next year’s rotation. There are some prospects near the majors who could step up, such as Robert Gasser and Jacob Misiorowski, but it makes a lot of sense to bring Woodruff back into the fold and hopefully have him come back healthy and effective by then. If that comes to pass, he and Peralta would give the club a strong front two next year, with three spots available for younger guys or future additions.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the Brewers were signing Woodruff to a two-year deal. The Associated Press reported the financial details and the no-trade clause.
]]>February 20: The Brewers and catcher Gary Sanchez agreed to terms on a one-year, $7MM contract in early February — but the team has yet to formally announce the signing. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic now reports that the Brewers had some concerns regarding Sanchez’s wrist, which he fractured in early September last season after being hit by a pitch, and that’ll likely lead to new financial terms. Sanchez will likely still be able to earn up to that same $7MM figure, per the report, but some of it will be contingent upon his wrist holding up. That implies that a lower base salary and incentives seem likely to be baked into the new-look contract arrangement.
While the financial terms of the deal seem likely to change, it doesn’t appear the concern was strong enough to torpedo the deal entirely. And, given that Sanchez was never expected to be the primary catcher on a roster featuring All-Star William Contreras anyhow, his role might not change much either. The veteran slugger will presumably operate as the primary backup to Contreras and also mix in at designated hitter a fair bit.
The Brewers could carry three catchers this season; they inked Eric Haase to a big league deal earlier in the winter. It’s a split contract, but he’s out of minor league options, so the minor league salary would only come into play if he first clears waivers. Rosenthal notes that the Brewers “plan to keep” Haase, though it’s at least possible they could simply be confident he’ll clear waivers and stick around as upper-level depth.
In particular, Sanchez will likely be in the lineup against left-handed pitchers as often as possible. The 31-year-old hit .267/.304/.680 against southpaws in 2023 and has generally posted better power numbers and a higher walk rate when holding the platoon advantage. Sanchez is just a .215 hitter against lefties in his career, but he’s reached base at a .314 clip and slugged .484 against them. Sanchez slotting in as a designated hitter against lefties could be used as a means of getting a breather for any of Milwaukee’s many lefty-swinging outfield/DH/first base options: Christian Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick or Jake Bauers.
The exact terms of the newly framed deal aren’t yet available, but the Brewers were projected for a $122MM payroll with Sanchez penciled in for his full $7MM guarantee (per Roster Resource). That was already about $10MM shy of their franchise-record mark, and shaving some of Sanchez’s guarantee off the books creates even more wiggle room. Of course, it’s still not known how much Brandon Woodruff will command on his new two-year deal to return to the Brew Crew, though it’ll presumably be quite backloaded given that he’s expected to miss the majority of the 2024 season following shoulder surgery.
However that pair of guarantees shakes out, the Brewers will likely still have some distance between their 2024 payroll figure and the previous franchise-high, established just two years ago in 2022. That could leave a bit of space for further additions to round out the roster, and for a team that already moved ace Corbin Burnes and saw its GM proclaim that he’s “open to more conversations,” the possibility remains that further changes to both the payroll and roster outlook could yet come together.
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