1:00pm: Twins closer Jhoan Duran, lefty reliever Caleb Thielbar, and rotation hopeful Anthony DeSclafani will open the season on the 15-day injured list, tweets Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Duran is dealing with a “moderate” oblique strain, while Thielbar will head to the IL with a strained hamstring. DeSclafani has a more ominous forearm strain and is slated to meet with Dr. Keith Meister for further evaluation.
Beyond that trio of surefire big leaguers, the Twins will also see prospect Matt Canterino and roster hopeful Zack Weiss start on the injured list, tweets Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Canterino, long one of the organization’s most promising arms, will be on the Triple-A injured list after suffering a subscapular strain in his shoulder. Weiss, a waiver claim out of the Red Sox organization, has been rehabbing a teres major strain and will be on the major league injured list.
Losing Duran even for a short spell is painful for the Twins, given the flamethrower’s emergence as one of MLB’s premier relievers. Since making his big league debut on Opening Day 2022, Duran has pitched 130 innings of 2.15 ERA ball with 35 saves, 19 holds, a 33.2% strikeout rate, a 7.9% walk rate and a massive 63.4% ground-ball rate. He averaged a ludicrous 101.8 mph on his heater last season and 98.4 mph with his splitter/sinker hybrid (“splinker”). The good news for the Twins is that a moderate strain shouldn’t result in excessively lengthy absence, but even Grade 1 strains have been known to sideline players for upwards of a month. The team hasn’t formally announced a timetable for Duran’s expected return just yet.
Wit Duran sidelined, it’ll likely fall to Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart to handle save situations early in the season. Jax has become one of Duran’s top setup men in recent years and offers an above-average strikeout rate and strong command of a slider-heavy arsenal. Stewart returned from a yearslong MLB absence and multiple arm surgeries brandishing an upper-90s cutter that helped him punch out nearly 36% of his opponents while pitching to a 0.65 ERA in 27 2/3 innings for the Twins last saeson.
The 37-year-old Thielbar has flown under the radar since returning to affiliated ball following a five-year absence in 2020, but he’s quietly been one of the team’s most important relievers in that time. Over the past four seasons, the Minnesota native has given his hometown club 174 innings of 3.21 ERA ball, piling up 45 holds while punching out 30.2% of his opponents against a 7.4% walk rate. He struggled against right-handers last season, yielding a .258/.319/.621 batting line, but Thielbar didn’t have glaring struggles against righties from 2020-22. As with Duran, they’ll hope for a relatively brief absence, but the team hasn’t given any specifics on how long he’s expected to miss just yet.
Word of DeSclafani’s injury is the most concerning of the three. Acquired from the Mariners (who’d picked him up from the Giants previously) as part of the trade sending Jorge Polanco to Seattle, DeSclafani had been in the running to open the season as the Twins’ fifth starter. He was slowed early in camp by some discomfort and is now headed for evaluation with one of the sport’s more notable surgeons.
DeSclafani has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. He missed the entire 2017 season with a UCL sprain that never required surgery, pitched a mostly healthy year in 2018 and enjoyed one of the best seasons of his career with the Reds in 2019. A teres major strain hobbled him in 2020 and limited him to 33 2/3 innings of 7.22 ERA ball, however. DeSclafani bounced back with a bit 2021 season in San Francisco, working 167 2/3 frames of 3.17 ERA ball over a mostly full slate of 31 starts.
DeSclafani re-signed in San Francisco on a three-year, $36MM deal that hasn’t at all gone according to plan. An ankle injury that eventually required surgery limited him to 19 frames in 2022. Shoulder fatigue and a pair of flexor strains capped him at 99 2/3 frames in 2023. He’ll now be slowed to begin the 2024 season, though a timeline won’t be known until that appointment with Dr. Meister has taken place.
The Twins are only the hook for $4MM of DeSclafani’s $12MM salary. The Giants sent $6MM to the Mariners in their original trade involving DeSclafani, and the M’s sent that plus another $2MM to Minnesota in the Polanco swap. With DeSclafani headed to the injured list, right-hander Louie Varland should have the fifth spot in the rotation all but locked up. He’ll follow Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack and Bailey Ober in what should be a solid Twins staff if everyone can remain healthy. However, the Twins will undoubtedly feel the losses of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, particularly now with their top depth option shelved. In the event of additional pitching injuries, Minnesota would likely turn to one of Simeon Woods Richardson, Brent Headrick or yet-to-debut top prospect David Festa.
As for the others, Canterino is still working his way back from 2022 Tommy John surgery. Injuries have regularly slowed him since being selected in the second round of the 2019 draft. Between shaky health and the scrapped 2020 minor league season, he’s still pitched only 85 professional innings. They’ve been excellent — 1.48 ERA, 39.2% strikeout rate, 10.5% walk rate — but his persistent injury troubles have undercut his considerable upside. As for Weiss, he’s pitched just 27 1/3 MLB frames but has a history of strong strikeout totals in the minors. He could be a bullpen option for the Twins at some point, but for now he’ll collect MLB service and pay while rehabbing. For a 32-year-old with just 91 days of big league service to this point in his career, that’s not insignificant.
It seems unlikely that the Twins will go outside the organization to boost their depth — at least in term of significant salary additions. Owner Joe Pohlad all but declared his team out on top names like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery earlier in camp when stating that his team was not going to “go out and spend $30MM on a player right now.” The Twins shocked baseball with a pair of Carlos Correa signings that came together under similar circumstances, but it doesn’t seem there’s another splash of that magnitude up their sleeves. Minnesota was reportedly interested in Michael Lorenzen earlier in the offseason, so it’s possible they could still circle back on that front. More likely is that they’ll just ride things out with internal options, perhaps adding a veteran on a minor league deal. A particularly lengthy absence for DeSclafani could create some extra urgency, so the results of his evaluation are worth tracking with a close eye for Twins fans.
]]>Minnesota has stopped short of declaring either player the starting first baseman. However, Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic opined on Monday that Santana is likely to get the bulk of the reps on the strength of his defensive reputation. Manager Rocco Baldelli indeed suggested Tuesday that defense would be a separator in divvying up playing time.
“Whoever’s the better defensive first baseman is going to play more at first base. I don’t know any other way to put that,” Baldelli said (link via Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune). “There will be a determination when the time comes, when we put our lineups together. Both are going to play a good amount of first base, but the guy who is doing the best job for us on that side of the ball is the one who’s going to play more.”
Santana should have the edge in that regard. The 14-year big league veteran consistently rates as a quality gloveman. Defensive Runs Saved graded him 11 runs above average in more than 1150 innings a year ago. Statcast rated him as more of a solid than excellent defender, estimating he was two runs above par. Kirilloff, by contrast, rated between five and eight runs below average in only 510 first base innings by those metrics.
That’s not to say that Kirilloff’s path to a regular spot in the lineup is blocked. The left-handed hitter has more offensive upside than Santana brings to the table at this stage of his career. Kirilloff is coming off a .270/.348/.445 slash with 11 homers in 88 games. He hasn’t produced much against lefty pitching but owns a .274/.328/.440 batting line in 549 career plate appearances versus right-handers.
Kirilloff should see a good bit of action at designated hitter even if Santana operates as the primary first baseman. Minnesota also isn’t completely closing the book on Kirilloff as an outfielder. The 26-year-old tells Miller that he has continued taking outfield drills and expects to soon log game action on the grass. Kirilloff came through the minors as a corner outfielder. He hasn’t seen a ton of MLB action out there, logging 64 starts over parts of three seasons. Baldelli penciled him into the starting outfield on just 12 occasions last year.
The increased action at first base reflects both Minnesota’s outfield depth and the questions that evaluators have raised about Kirilloff’s athleticism. He’s certainly an inferior defender to Max Kepler in right field. Projected left fielder Matt Wallner has below-average range, although he has as strong an arm as any outfielder in the game.
Byron Buxton has the ability to help cover for a mediocre defender in left field, assuming he stays healthy. He’s among the sport’s best center fielders at full strength, but right knee issues kept him from logging any defensive work in 2023. The Star-Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale spoke with Buxton and hitting coach David Popkins about the difficulty in even remaining in a DH role with the amount of pain through which he had to play last season.
Buxton spoke about the mental challenge of playing through the injury, which he said frequently tightened up between at-bats and made it difficult to decelerate as a baserunner. The Twins are optimistic that he’ll be able to play center field fairly regularly in 2024, although Buxton’s injury history makes it difficult to bank on him starting 100+ games. Minnesota brought in Manuel Margot to serve as a quality fourth outfielder who can spell Buxton in center field and offers a right-handed complement to Kepler, Wallner and Kirilloff in the corners.
]]>Donaldson, now 38, took a winding path to the major leagues and was a late bloomer, but he nonetheless reached incredible heights as a big leaguer once everything aligned.
While playing third base at Auburn University, he began to learn how to catch. The Cubs then selected him as a catcher with the 48th overall pick in the 2007 draft. In July of 2008, he was traded to the Athletics, one of four players going to Oakland in exchange for Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin.
As he climbed the minor league ladder with his new club, his bat was considered ahead of his glove, an understandable situation given that he was relatively new to catching. He made his major league debut in 2010 but hit just .156/.206/.281 in his first 34 plate appearances.
He was stuck in the minors in 2011 and then spent 2012 being shuttled between the majors and the minors, gradually spending more time at third base over that stretch. His breakout season finally came in 2013, when Donaldson was 27 years old. Now done with catching for good, he got into 158 games for the A’s that year as their everyday third baseman. He hit 24 home runs and drew a walk in 11.4% of his plate appearances, only striking out at a 16.5% rate. His .301/.384/.499 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 147 and he got strong grades for his defense at the hot corner, leading to a tally of 7.3 wins above replacement from FanGraphs and 7.2 from Baseball Reference. He finished fourth in American League MVP voting.
Donaldson followed that up with a similarly excellent season in 2014 and the A’s made the postseason for a third straight year, but made a quick playoff exit all three times. The club decided to undergo a huge roster overhaul that winter, a frequent occurrence for the club and its persistent financial concerns. Going into 2015, the club traded away guys like Brandon Moss, Jeff Samardzija and also flipped Donaldson to the Blue Jays for a four-player package.
His first season in Toronto would eventually prove to be the best of his career. He launched 41 home runs and slashed .297/.371/.568 for a wRC+ of 154. The Jays won the A.L. East that year and Donaldson launched another three home runs in that year’s playoffs as the Jays advanced as far as the ALCS. He was graded as worth 8.7 fWAR and was voted as that year’s A.L. MVP, just ahead of Mike Trout.
He would go onto to have another excellent season for the Jays in 2016, hitting 37 home runs that year as they advanced to the ALCS yet again. He scored the winning run in the ALDS by dashing home from second on a fielder’s choice to secure an extra-inning victory over the Rangers.
But in 2017, injuries started to crop up, which would go on to be a key issue in the rest of his career. He was still excellent that season, slashing .270/.385/.559 while hitting 33 home runs, but was limited to 113 contests due to a calf strain. He and the Jays agreed to a $23MM salary for 2018, his final year of arbitration control. Since the Jays had fallen to fourth place the year prior, there were some trade rumors around Donaldson that winter but he ultimately stayed put.
He spent much of that year on the injured list due to shoulder and calf issues. With the Jays out of contention at the August waiver deadline, he was flipped to Cleveland for Julian Merryweather. Donaldson only played 16 games for Cleveland after that deal as he continued battling his injuries.
He finally reached free agency that winter, but with a limited amount of momentum. Thanks to his late-bloomer trajectory, he was going into his age-33 season and coming off an injury-marred campaign. Alex Anthopoulos, who acquired Donaldson when he was making decisions for the Blue Jays, had become the general manager in Atlanta prior to the 2018 campaign. He gave Donaldson a one-year “prove-it” deal worth $23MM.
Donaldson bounced back tremendously with Atlanta, getting into 155 games, walking in 15.2% of his plate appearances and hitting .259/.379/.521 for a 131 wRC+. He then rejected a qualifying offer from Atlanta and then signed a four-year, $92MM deal with the Twins. Issues with his right calf cropped up again in 2020, as he only played 28 games during that shortened season, but was able to get into 135 contests the year after and launch 26 home runs in the process.
With two years still left on that deal, the Twins flipped him to the Yankees alongside Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ben Rortvedt, with Gio Urshela and Gary Sánchez going the other way. Donaldson was healthy enough to get into 132 games in 2022 but his production tailed off. He only hit 15 homers and struck out at a 27.1% clip, leading to a line of .222/.308/.374. He spent much of 2023 on the injured list and was released at the end of August, joining the Brewers for the stretch run before returning to free agency this winter.
It wasn’t a storybook ending but Donaldson nonetheless managed to weave together quite a career. Despite not truly breaking out until the age of 27, he still managed to get into 1,384 games and rack up 1,310 hits. That latter figure includes 287 doubles, 12 triples and 279 home runs. He had matching tallies of 816 runs scored and runs batted in, stealing 40 bases in the process. He received an MVP award, three All-Star selections and two Silver Sluggers. His fiery personality which drove him to succeed also rankled some people around the game, as he often quarrelled with umpires, coaches and fellow players, but that combination of his talent and prickly character will likely lead him to being one of the more memorable players of his era. We at MLBTR salute him on his many accomplishments and wish him the best in whatever comes next.
]]>The Twins placed right-hander Josh Winder on the 60-day injured list to open a roster spot for Margot, announcing that Winder has a scapular stress fracture. His exact timeline in unclear but he’ll be ineligible to rejoin the club until late May at the earliest.
Minnesota has been on the lookout for a right-handed-hitting outfielder who could cover all three spots for much of the offseason. They’d previously been tied to free agents like Adam Duvall and Enrique Hernandez, and they’d also maintained an interest in re-signing Michael A. Taylor, who belted 21 home runs as a Twin in 2023. However, it seems they’ve found a deal to their liking on the trade front, presumably ending those free agent pursuits.
In Margot, the Twins are acquiring that righty bat they’ve been seeking but are also buying low on a player who’s been hampered by knee troubles dating back to the 2022 season. Margot missed roughly half of the ’22 campaign with a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee. He was limited to just 363 plate appearances and turned in a solid, if unspectacular .274/.325/.375 slash (101 wRC+). He followed that up with a .264/.310/.376 line in 336 plate appearances this past season.
Had Margot enjoyed a season of his typical defensive excellence in ’23, that offensive output would’ve made him an above-average all-around contributor. But in the wake of that knee injury, his once-elite defensive grades slipped closer to average. Statcast noted that Margot’s range and sprint speed both declined in 2023. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at -3 on the season, while Statcast’s Outs Above Average credited him at +3. Either way, it’s a notable drop for a player who posted 13 DRS and 16 OAA as recently as 2021. The Twins, presumably, are confident that as Margot distances himself from that knee injury, he can rebound in the field — if not back to peak form than at least to a clearly above-average defender at all three spots.
In Minnesota, Margot will provide the Twins with some insurance in the event of another injury to rarely-healthy center fielder Byron Buxton. Beyond that, he’ll give the Twins a righty bat that can spell lefty-swingers Matt Wallner and Max Kepler in the corners. Margot is a career .281/.341/.420 hitter (109 wRC+) against left-handed pitching, so he’ll likely see his fair share of pinch-hitting opportunities for a Twins club that tends to play matchups throughout the game. Margot can also serve as a late-game defensive upgrade in left over Wallner or a late-game pinch runner. Even with a downturn in his sprint speed, he still ranked in the 75th percentile of MLB players last year, per Statcast.
The Twins will also pick up Doncon, a 20-year-old infielder who signed with the Dodgers for just under $500K as an international amateur during the 2021-22 signing period. FanGraphs ranked him 12th among Los Angeles prospects as recently as last season, touting potentially plus raw power and an above-average hit tool as his best tools. The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked him 19th among L.A. farmhands just last week.
Doncon has played shortstop, second base and third base in the Dodgers’ system and climbed as high as A-ball during 2023 — his age-19 season. He spent the entire year at that level and posted underwhelming numbers (.216/.283/.368) — but did so against much older competition. Scouting reports suggest he’ll have to move to either third base, second base or the outfield as he fills out his projectable 6’2″, 176-pound frame. Doncon possesses significant power potential but questions about his pitch recognition and eventual defensive home. He’s a couple years off from being a potential big league factor, but at this point he’s a more highly regarded prospect than Miller.
Doncon’s inclusion in the deal aligns with the Twins’ general M.O. in deals of this nature; Minnesota tends to push trade partners to include prospects of varying quality even when they’re the team acquiring the established player (e.g. Jose Salas in the Pablo Lopez trade, Gabriel Gonzalez in the Jorge Polanco deal, Ronny Henriquez in the Isiah Kiner-Falefa swap, Brayan Medina in the Chris Paddack trade, Francis Peguero in the Sonny Gray trade, etc.).
As for the Dodgers’ end of things, they’ll add a former supplemental first-rounder in the deal. Miller, 21, was the No. 36 overall pick by the Twins in 2021 but hasn’t lived up to that billing at the plate thus far. He’s regarded as a solid defender at shortstop but has posted only a .220/.326/.318 batting line in the minor leagues, including a .223/.309/.340 slash in High-A last year. Miller gives the Dodgers a glove-first shortstop option who can begin the 2024 season either with a second run at High-A or in Double-A. Even if his bat never comes around, there’s utility upside for Miller within the next few years based on the quality of his defense.
Like Doncon, it should be noted Miller’s pedestrian production in 2023 came against much older and more advanced competition. Both players were more than two years younger than the average player at their respective minor league levels. Neither needs to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft until after the 2025 season.
As with the Twins getting Doncon included in this deal, the Dodgers’ acquisition of Miller fits a recent pattern. Los Angeles has bought low on recent high-profile draftees that needn’t be added to their 40-man roster this winter while performing maintenance to make room for new acquisitions. In addition to Miller, the Dodgers picked up former Yankees first-rounder Trey Sweeney in their Victor Gonzalez swap and former Cubs second-rounder Jackson Ferris in trading away Michael Busch.
Perhaps most importantly for the Dodgers, the trade of Margot frees up a roster space. In that sense, this trade has largely facilitated the team’s re-signing of utilityman Enrique Hernandez to a one-year contract. The Twins had been in the mix to sign Hernandez and were reportedly one of four finalists. Instead they’ll go with a hitter who’s been more productive over the past few seasons and can capably fill the same role in the outfield, but lacks the infield versatility. Taking on $4MM of Margot’s deal makes the transactions cash-neutral for the Dodgers, who subsequently guaranteed Hernandez the same amount in free agency.
Juan Toribio of MLB.com first reported that Margot had been traded to Minnesota. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that Miller was going back to Los Angeles. Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base reported Doncon’s inclusion in the deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN added that the Dodgers were sending cash to the Twins as well. Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic first reported the Twins were taking on $4MM.
]]>While Falvey didn’t rule out the possibility of further acquisitions, he implied the bulk of the offseason team-building is complete. “Realistically, with where our team is, with how the roster now is built out, with the way it looks, obviously we’ll keep monitoring where our roster is, the health of it. But this was the primary focus for us over the last little bit. I would say that’s by and large the big-picture items, but we’ll keep an open mind about different opportunities that present along the way,” the baseball operations leader said (via Gleeman).
Roster Resource calculates their payroll in the $127MM range, which aligns with early-offseason reporting that they were targeting a payroll between $125MM and $140MM. Margot adds insurance behind Byron Buxton, who is returning to center field after knee injuries limited him to designated hitter a year ago. He also adds a righty complement to left-handed hitting corner outfielders Matt Wallner and Max Kepler. The Twins recently brought in Carlos Santana — a switch-hitter who typically fares better from the right side — to balance a lineup that was quite a bit better against righty pitching than left-handed arms a year ago.
They’re also retaining righty-hitting utilityman Kyle Farmer for a second season. Minnesota acquired Farmer from the Reds last winter. He had a decent year, appearing in 120 games and hitting .256/.317/.408 with 11 home runs. Between league average offense and the ability to handle anywhere on the infield, Farmer is a good depth player. Still, his rising arbitration price led to speculation he’d be traded or non-tendered, particularly with the Twins announcing early in the winter they were scaling back spending relative to last year.
Farmer acknowledged this weekend that he doubted whether he’d be back in Minnesota (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune). “I always saw myself here, but all the trade rumors and non-tender stuff, I figured I wasn’t going to be here. It worked out good,” Farmer said. He admitted that it wasn’t until the late-January deal sending Jorge Polanco to Seattle that he was confident he’d remain with the Twins.
Minnesota and Farmer agreed to a $6.05MM salary for his final season of arbitration. He’ll likely collect a $250K buyout in lieu of a $6.25MM mutual option and become a free agent for the first time next winter. Farmer should occupy a similar multi-positional role as he played a year ago. Edouard Julien is stepping in at second base alongside Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and the Santana/Alex Kirilloff tandem throughout the infield.
Lewis showed the kind of talent that made him the first overall pick seven years ago. He raked at a .309/.372/.548 clip in 58 regular season contests and blasted four homers in six playoff games. He’s locked in as the starter at third base and looks like a franchise building block so long as he can stay healthy after twice tearing the ACL in his right knee.
The Twins have Lewis under club control for another five seasons. He’ll play this year on a near-minimum salary and qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player next winter. There’s no particular urgency for Minnesota to try to lock him up on a long-term deal, which Lewis acknowledged (via The Athletic’s Dan Hayes).
“I would love to hear anything, but I don’t think right now they’re in a position to do that,” Lewis said about an extension. “Especially with the payroll and the TV stuff going down, they have some stuff financially they have to figure out first. I’m last on the totem pole.” The 24-year-old indicated he’d be receptive if the organization did make extension overtures but downplayed any urgency to lock in short-term earnings. Lewis acknowledged he’s “definitely financially secure” after signing for a $6.73MM bonus out of high school.
His asking price on an extension would only escalate so long as he remains healthy into his arbitration seasons. Yet it’s understandable if the Twins want to see a full year against MLB pitching (to say nothing of gaining clarity on their local TV deal) before seriously engaging in talks. Falvey spoke broadly of a willingness to consider extension possibilities with the team’s young players but told Hayes and other reporters the focus with Lewis is “(making) sure he’s on the field the full year and (continuing) to build into what he’s already scratched the surface on in his career.“
]]>Pinto and Alex Jackson look to be Tampa’s preferred catching combo heading into the 2024 season, but the Rays were known to be looking for more depth at the position. Re-signing a familiar face like Mejia would seem like a logical move in that department, even if a reunion with a catcher the Rays already seemingly moved on from last summer doesn’t represent much of an upgrade on a position that had been an issue for the team for years. Mejia has hit .239/.284/.394 over 1098 career plate appearances in the majors, as the 28-year-old has only rarely shown any of the promise that made him a top prospect during his time in the Cleveland and San Diego farm systems.
Here’s some more from the American League….
Hernandez, 32, opened the 2024 season as the starting shortstop for the Red Sox, though he struggled both with the glove and at the plate in the role. After slashing .222/.279/.320 in 323 trips to the plate with Boston in the first half of the season, the club shipped Hernandez to the Dodgers for the stretch run. It was a homecoming for Hernandez, who had already played in L.A. for six seasons before signing in Boston prior to the 2021 season via free agency, and in his return to the Dodgers he found some success in a bench role. Hernandez slashed a roughly league average .262/.308/.423 down the stretch in L.A. while bouncing between every spot on the diamond except for catcher.
The veteran has generally been utilized as a bench bat throughout his career, filling in all over the diamond thanks to his versatility and often getting reps against southpaws due to a career .801 OPS against left-handed pitching. That being said, Hernandez typically provides slightly below average offense overall. Since first joining the Dodgers prior to the 2015 season, Hernandez sports a career slash line of .239/.310/.408, good for a wRC+ of 93. That lack of offensive presence has typically kept him from securing a full-time role; 2023 was just the second season of Hernandez’s career where he totaled 500 plate appearances in a season despite routinely appearing in 130 or more games for his club.
Looking at the reported suitors for Hernandez’s services, the Angels are perhaps the least surprising given their previously reported interest in the 32-year-old. It’s easy to see why the Halos would have interest in Hernandez’s services. While the club has plenty of interesting pieces backing up superstar Mike Trout in the lineup, the club’s lineup offers little in the way of certainty. Trout and former star slugger Anthony Rendon have been plagued by injury woes in recent years that have kept both veterans off the field more often than not, while exciting youngsters like Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel have potential but are hardly a guarantee to produce in the majors after short stays in the minor leagues.
Hernandez’s versatility would allow him to cover for virtually any player in the Anaheim lineup in the event of injury or under-performance, and the DH spot left open by the departure of Shohei Ohtani could provide Hernandez a path to semi-regular at-bats even in the event the club’s starting lineup manages to stay healthy and effective. Hernandez’s versatility could also allow the club to offer more consistency to 26-year-old infielder Luis Rengifo, who appears poised to enter the year as the club’s starting second baseman but appeared at six different positions in 2023.
The other three suitors for Hernandez’s services had not been publicly connected to the veteran previously. That being said, each of them could make plenty of sense as a fit for the utility man. The Padres, in particular, are in clear need of outfield depth after entering the spring with just two outfielders on their 40-man roster in Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jose Azocar. They’ve added Jurickson Profar on a big league deal since then and have non-roster invitees such as Oscar Mercado attempting to earn a roster spot in Spring Training, but Hernandez would offer the club a steady, veteran presence off the bench who can handle all three outfield spots and could take pressure off prospects like Jackson Merrill and Jakob Marsee to prove themselves ready for regular big league action.
The roster fit for Hernandez in Minnesota and San Francisco is a little less obvious, as both clubs already have crowded positional mixes. With that being said, the presence of Hernandez could provide the Giants with some veteran stability at shortstop should youngster Marco Luciano not hit the ground running at the position, and Hernandez’s right-handed bat could serve as a strong complement to an outfield featuring a trio of lefty regulars in Michael Conforto, Jung Hoo Lee, and Mike Yastrzemski.
Meanwhile, the Twins have a several young lefty bats in their lineup such as Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, and Matt Wallner. Adding Hernandez to the club’s positional mix would give the club a right-handed bat to complement those youngsters while also providing a clear backup option in center field should oft-injured star Byron Buxton return to the shelf at some point this season. Buxton also isn’t the only piece on the Twins’ roster that has struggled with injuries in recent years, as each of Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, and Carlos Correa also dealt with injury woes last season. While it might be hard for Minnesota to fit Hernandez on their roster as things stand, the club could attempt to clear roster space by shopping fellow utility player Kyle Farmer or even simply option Jose Miranda, who figured to serve as a right-handed bat off the club’s bench this year, to Triple-A to open the season.
]]>More from around the AL Central…
“…We’re not going to go out and spend $30MM on a player right now,” Pohlad plainly stated without mentioning any of Bellinger, Snell, Montgomery or Chapman by name. “The players that are out there right now that probably a bunch of fans are talking about, we are not in the market for those players.”
Minnesota never looked like a good fit for either of the position players — particularly Chapman — but the Twins are known to be looking for rotation help after seeing Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle depart as free agents. A late deal with Snell or Montgomery would’ve registered as something of a surprise, given the organization’s candid acknowledgment of plans to reduce payroll amid television uncertainty this winter, but their late entry into the Correa market a couple winters ago might’ve left some to wonder whether a similar approach could be in the offing here. Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote just yesterday that he “would not discount the Twins as a wild card” for the remaining starters, but Pohlad’s comments today strongly suggest otherwise.
The Twins said early this winter that payroll would likely take a step back, and at the time, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported a rough target of $125-140MM. Minnesota currently sits just south of that number, at a projected $123.5MM per Roster Resource. It should be noted that Pohlad did not rule out any subsequent additions at all — rather just a big play at the top end of the market.
“…There are definitely other players that can have a positive impact on our team that [president of baseball operations Derek Falvey], I’m sure, is looking at,” Pohlad added.
The Twins, for instance, have reportedly expressed interest in unsigned players like Michael Lorenzen, Adam Duvall and Michael A. Taylor. Signing one or even two of those names would cost considerably less than a run at Montgomery or Snell. They also watched old friend Jake Odorizzi’s recent workout for teams. Falvey and his staff have also never been ones to shy away from trades late in the offseason. Deals to acquire Pablo Lopez (Jan. 23) and Odorizzi (Feb. 17) were both completed well after the New Year in their respective offseasons. The acquisition of Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan came on the eve of Opening Day in 2022. It remains possible that some pitching or right-handed-hitting outfield help could be acquired via that market.
Generally speaking, it’s been a quiet offseason for the Twins. They shipped stalwart infielder Jorge Polanco to the Mariners late last month in a deal netting right-handers Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani and prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen. Minnesota netted about $6.5MM in that deal as well and reinvested that money in free agent deals to sign Carlos Santana and Jay Jackson. More recently, they flipped utilityman Nick Gordon to the Marlins for lefty reliever Steven Okert.
]]>Taylor, 33 next month, played his typical brand of plus defense in 2023 with the Twins. He logged 960 innings in center field and wound up being credited with five Defensive Runs Saved and eight Outs Above Average. He went 13-for-14 in stolen base attempts, adding to his track record as a contributor on the basepaths. His season at the plate was a bit more unusual, at least by his standards.
Though he’s not typically known for his power, Taylor belted a career-high 21 homers in just 388 trips to the plate. His .223 isolated power mark (slugging percentage minus batting average) was 83 points higher than the .140 career mark he carried into the season. That surge came at a cost, however. Taylor appeared to perhaps be selling out for power, as his 33.5% strikeout rate was easily a career-high mark over a full season — and nearly 10 percentage points higher than the 23.9% mark he’d turned in with the Royals just one year prior. Taylor finished out the season batting just .220 with a paltry .274 on-base percentage but a heartier .442 slugging percentage.
By all accounts, Taylor enjoyed his time in Minnesota. He said back in October that he hoped to return for the 2024 season. However, he’s not likely to have the same role waiting for him if he opts to return. Byron Buxton didn’t play a single game in center field last season as he battled lingering effects from offseason knee surgery. Buxton is slated to return to center field work this season, which would leave less playing time available for Taylor at Target Field. Of course, Buxton’s injury history is among the lengthiest in baseball, so there’d likely be some stretches where Taylor is pressed into regular duty in center — but it nonetheless seems unlikely he’d approach 1000 innings in the outfield in 2024, as he did last year.
That said, even in the unlikely event that Buxton were healthy enough to play nearly everyday in center, there’d still be ways to get Taylor into the lineup. He tattooed left-handed pitching in ’23, hitting .252/.313/.602 with nine homers in only 112 plate appearances. The Twins will have lefty-swinging bats in both the outfield corners — Matt Wallner, Max Kepler — and could use Taylor to spell either player against southpaw opponents. Kepler is a premium defender himself, making him unlikely to be lifted for a late-game defensive replacement. Wallner, on the other hand, is more of a bat-first left fielder and could be swapped out in such situations. A defensive outfield with Taylor in left, Buxton in center and Kepler in right would be among the best in the game.
Taylor has drawn interest from a wide range of teams this offseason. Each of the Pirates, Angels, Padres, Blue Jays, Reds, Dodgers and Red Sox have been linked to him at various points throughout free agency. Some of those clubs (e.g. Dodgers, Jays) have since gone in other directions in their outfield search, but Taylor is still stands as a fit with many of them.
Minnesota’s front office is likely working with a somewhat limited budget. The Twins stated early in the offseason that they planned to reduce payroll due to uncertainty regarding their television broadcast situation, with Dan Hayes of The Athletic reporting a $125-140MM range as the target at the time. They’re currently projected at about $123.5MM, per Roster Resource, so there’s certainly room to add Taylor back into the fold. Adding Taylor and another arm could prove more difficult within those budgetary constraints, barring some type of late trade to free up a bit more payroll space (e.g. Kyle Farmer). The Twins have also reportedly shown interest in righty-hitting outfielder Adam Duvall. Other options on the market include Randal Grichuk, Enrique Hernandez, Tommy Pham and perhaps Whit Merrifield, who’s expecting to decide on his next team within the next couple days.
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]]>It’s a bit of an early birthday present for Brigham, who turns 32 on Friday. The righty is coming off a disappointing year with the Mets. Acquired from the Marlins in November of 2022, he spent 2023 as an up-and-down depth arm for the Mets. He made 37 appearances with the big league club but allowed 5.26 earned runs per nine innings. His 26.3% strikeout rate was quite strong but he also issued walks to 11.3% of batters faced. He also fared poorly in Triple-A, though in a tiny sample of nine innings.
The Mets non-tendered Brigham at season’s end rather than pay him an arbitration salary, which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected would be $1.1MM. The Twins will take a no-risk look at him in camp and see if there’s anything that intrigues them. He’s not too far removed from better results, as he posted a 3.38 ERA with the Marlins in 2022, as well as a 27.7% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate. But the stuff may be a concern, as his velo has been dropping. His fastball averaged 96.6 miles per hour in 2019 but he missed most of 2020 due to a biceps injury. His fastball velo dropped to 94.5 mph in 2022 and then 93.5 mph last year.
He’ll give the Twins a bit of non-roster bullpen depth, alongside guys like Matt Bowman, A.J. Alexy, Hobie Harris and Jared Solomon. If Brigham is added to the roster at any point, he still has an option year remaining and less than four years of service time.
O’Keefe, 30, has a small MLB résumé, having appeared in 10 games for the Mariners over the past two seasons. He hit .136/.240/.227 in his 25 plate appearances over that span. He’s had just over 1,000 trips to the plate in Triple-A, hitting .247/.333/.475, though with all of that time spent in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Baseball Prospectus has looked kindly upon his framing and blocking throughout his minor league career.
The Twins have Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vázquez set to be their catching duo in the big leagues. The latter appeared in some trade rumors over the winter but nothing has come together. Jair Camargo is on the roster but has options and is likely to be in Triple-A. O’Keefe will likely join him in a non-roster capacity and will be on hand should an injury arise.
Balazovic, 25, was once a top 100 prospect but his stock has fallen significantly of late. He posted a 7.39 ERA in 22 Triple-A appearances in 2022, with Baseball America noting that his stuff had diminished in terms of velocity. In 2023, it was reported in February that he had a broken jaw due to “an altercation away from the field.” He went on to post 5.32 ERA in Triple-A and a 4.44 ERA in the majors. That big league work came with unimpressive peripherals such as a 15.7% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate.
He is now out of options and would need an active roster spot, in addition to a 40-man spot. It seems no club was willing to take a chance on him, despite the former prospect pedigree, so he will stick with the Twins as non-roster depth. He doesn’t have a previous career outright nor the three years of service time that would allow him to elect free agency.
As for Duarte, 27, he finally cleared waivers after spending the winter touring around the league. He was designated for assignment by the Reds in January and then went to the Rangers on a cash deal and then to the Twins on a waiver claim.
He had an ERA of 3.69 with Cincinnati last year but only struck out 16.9% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 14.7% clip. His 50% ground ball rate surely helped but he won’t be able to maintain a .218 batting average on balls in play or 81.6% strand rate going forward.
His interest around the league likely stemmed from his strong Triple-A numbers. In 35 innings at that level last year, he had a 3.34 ERA, 25.8% strikeout rate, 11.3% walk rate and 51.8% ground ball rate. Like Balazovic, he will have no choice but to accept this assignment and stick with the club as non-roster depth.
]]>Thompson, 26 in June, has been on the roster carousel for the past six months. Designated for assignment by the Rangers in August, he has since gone to the Royals, Reds, Yankees, Twins and now the Reds again on waiver claims. The high level of interest is a reflection of his elite speed and strong defensive abilities, while his tenuous hold on a roster spot is a result of his poor work at the plate.
He received 241 plate appearances with the Rangers over the past two seasons, walking in just 4.6% of them while striking out at a 29.9% clip. His .242/.286/.305 batting line translates to a wRC+ of just 65, indicating he’s been 35% worse than the league average hitter. He’s been better in the minors but still subpar. In 740 trips to the plate at Triple-A since the start of 2022, he has a 7.4% walk rate, 24.1% strikeout rate and .283/.346/.442 batting line for a wRC+ of 96.
But he’s one of the fastest runners in the game, with Statcast considering him to have 100th percentile sprint speed. He has 22 steals in 27 attempts at the major league level and dozens more in the minors. That speed has helped him earn strong defensive grades during his time in the big leagues.
He still has two option years and is clearly attractive to clubs around the league, either as a depth piece getting regular at-bats in the minors or a speed-and-defense guy off the bench. The Reds like him enough that this is the second time they have claimed him of late. He could wind up off the roster again in short order, but if he sticks, he’ll be fighting for a spot on their depth chart. They will have TJ Friedl, Will Benson, Jake Fraley and Stuart Fairchild in their outfield mix, while their crowded infield could push guys like Spencer Steer and Jonathan India to the grass.
Stoudt, now 26, came to the Reds as one of the players in the 2022 Luis Castillo trade. He was a prospect of note in the M’s system but his results have not carried up to the higher levels of the minors or to the majors. He got a brief MLB debut last year, throwing 10 1/3 innings with 11 earned runs allowed. His 82 1/3 Triple-A innings resulted in a 6.23 ERA, 15.1% strikeout rate and 13% walk rate.
It was obviously a challenging year for him and he’s now been squeezed of the Reds’ roster. They will have a week to find a trade for him or pass him through waivers. He still has a couple of options and there are lots of club in need of pitching, which could perhaps help him find a new club in the coming days.
]]>Odorizzi, 34 next month, is coming off an entirely missed season. He was traded from Atlanta to Texas at the end of the 2022 campaign after triggering a player option. Atlanta agreed to pay down $10MM of the $12.5MM salary on that player option, leaving Texas to pay just $2.5MM. But that money ended up wasted, as Odorizzi dealt with some arm fatigue in Spring Training and ultimately required a season-ending arthroscopic procedure on his right shoulder.
His offers will undoubtedly be limited after that lost season and shoulder injury, but it could also present a buy-low opportunity for clubs if any of them are encouraged by his health. Odorizzi has spent many years in the big leagues as a solid mid-rotation guy, having made 241 appearances since his 2012 debut, 237 of those being starts. His 1,253 1/3 innings have seen him allow 3.99 earned runs per nine, striking out 22.2% of batters faced while walking 8.1%.
Various clubs around the league are working with tighter budgets this winter due to uncertainty regarding the broadcast revenue situation, with one of those being the Twins. They opened last year with a payroll of $153MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but are reportedly trying to get that down to the $125-140MM range for this year’s opener.
They are currently at $124MM, per Roster Resource, but with a clearly diminished rotation. Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle all reached free agency and signed with other clubs. Chris Paddack returned from his Tommy John surgery absence late last year and could make up for those losses somewhat and the Twins acquired Anthony DeSclafani from the Mariners, but the overall group is clearly less inspiring than it was a year ago. Reporting from earlier today suggested that the club is still looking to add to their starting mix.
The Twins clearly know and like Odorizzi, as he pitched for them from 2018 to 2020. If they feel he can get back to where he was during that time, a low-cost flier would make plenty of sense. The Twins were just one club present to watch Odorizzi throw and there are plenty of others who could be a fit.
The Padres have also been slashing payroll and have lost Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill and Nick Martínez to free agency. Snell is still out there but the club’s tight budget makes it unlikely they’ll get him back or sign any other big name. The Rays have a payroll that is set to be a franchise record and they could use some more pitching. Like the Twins, they are familiar with Odorizzi from a previous stint, as he was with Tampa from 2013 to 2017. Just about any club could use an extra bit of pitching depth and Spring Training always leads to injuries that will only exacerbate those needs.
The big question will naturally be Odorizzi’s health. Beyond the recent shoulder procedure and long layoff, he’s had other issues. In 2021, he went on the injured list due to a right pronator muscle strain and some right foot soreness, whereas the 2022 season saw him miss time due to lower left leg discomfort. He topped out just over 100 innings in both of those campaigns. Thanks to those injuries and the pandemic, he hasn’t had anything close to a full starter’s workload since 2019. But he was fairly steady prior to that, tossing between 140 and 190 innings in six straight years from 2014 to 2019. His ERA finished between 3.35 and 4.49 in each of those campaigns.
]]>Both Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune and Jon Morosi of MLB Network (video link) have suggested recently that Minnesota could make some further additions before long. The Twins, who’ve scaled back payroll while spending much of the offseason facing questions about their television broadcast rights, aren’t likely to sign Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. The Twins reportedly had interest in Michael Lorenzen prior to adding DeSclafani, and Morosi suggests that pitchers like Lorenzen and Noah Syndergaard are in the general price range the Twins are actively considering.
As things stand, the Twins still have a solid group of starters, though the depth isn’t as strong heading into 2024 as it appeared to be in 2023. Pablo Lopez had the third-most strikeouts in all of baseball last season while finishing ninth innings pitched and logging a 3.66 ERA. He’ll lead the staff, followed by righties Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. The former carried a sub-3.00 ERA with outstanding K/BB marks through his first 15 starts before fading down the stretch. He’ll look for a stronger finish to the 2024 season but has nonetheless cemented himself as a useful big league starter. The latter touts a 3.37 ERA, 24.5% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate in 200 1/3 frames dating back to 2022.
Beyond that trio, the Twins are hoping to get a full season’s worth of starts from righty Chris Paddack, who returned from Tommy John surgery late in 2023 and pitched well out of the bullpen. The former Padre allowed three runs in 8 2/3 innings between the regular season and postseason, turning in an electric 14-to-1 K/BB ratio in that time (41.8% strikeout rate, 2.9% walk rate). However, the 28-year-old has just 40 2/3 innings total since 2022 (minors and postseason included), and he’s only reached 100 innings in two MLB seasons. Counting on him for 30 starts seems wildly optimistic.
The veteran DeSclafani and 26-year-old right-hander Louie Varland will vie for the final starting job. DeSclafani, 34, has battled injuries over the past two seasons and pitched poorly when on the field, but he gave the Giants 31 starts of 3.17 ERA ball as recently as 2021. The Twins are only on the hook for $4MM of this season’s $12MM salary, with the Giants paying $6MM and the Mariners kicking in $2MM as part of the Jorge Polanco trade with the Mariners that also brought reliever Justin Topa and top prospect Gabriel Gonzalez to Minnesota. Varland has pitched 94 innings of 4.40 ERA ball in the big leagues. He was immensely homer-prone in 2023 (2.12 HR/9), but he boasts strong strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates, leading metrics like SIERA and xFIP (which normalize home-run rate) to peg his 2023 performance at solid marks of 3.77 and 3.81.
It’s a fine top six, but the departure of Maeda and particularly Gray, who finished second in AL Cy Young voting this past season, still loom large. The Twins will surely be banking on more consistency from Ryan and more innings from Paddack, but there’s no getting around the fact that the group looks weaker than it did in 2023 — particularly late in the season, when Gray and Maeda were both pitching quite well.
Barring some type of surprising trade, it doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will find a way to replace the quality of Gray’s innings. Free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still out there, but the Twins have been cutting payroll due to their murky television situation. Minnesota formally announced a one-year extension of their deal with Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports today, though presumably at a lesser rate than they received in 2023. The outlook beyond that point remains unclear, too. A major splash for Snell or Montgomery would come as a shock.
Deepening the group by bringing in someone like Lorenzen probably wouldn’t give the Twins the same type of Game 1 or 2 playoff starter they had in Gray, but springing for quantity has some merit as well. Even adding 150 or so league-average innings would help to safeguard against injury concerns among the current group (Paddack and DeSclafani, most notably), push DeSclafani to a long-relief role to open the season and push Varland to Triple-A, where he could work out of the rotation and be summoned as injuries dictate. Roster Resource currently projects a $123.5MM payroll for the Twins — more than $30MM shy of last year’s season-end mark but in the general $125-140MM vicinity they were reportedly targeting for the upcoming season.
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