LeMahieu, 35, is coming off a frustrating season. He didn’t go on the injured list last year but did battle through quad and calf soreness while hitting .243/.327/.390 for a wRC+ of 101. Just over a month ago, Boone was excited about LeMahieu’s improved health at the opening of camp. “He’s just more explosive to me,” Boone said, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. Unfortunately, there now may be a snag in seeing that explosiveness in the regular season.
Even if LeMahieu misses some early time in the season, it may not be much. Opening Day injured list stints can be backdated by three days, so he might only miss a week if he’s put on the 10-day IL. It’s nonetheless a situation worth monitoring as it could leave them with a temporary hole at third base.
LeMahieu is slated to be the club’s everyday option at the hot corner, with Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo filling out the rest of the infield. The club was looking to bolster its veteran infield depth, having recently been connected to players like Enrique Hernández and Amed Rosario, though those players have now signed with the Dodgers and Rays, respectively.
The plan with signing either of those two would have involved Oswald Peraza getting optioned to the minors for regular reps, ready to be recalled for more regular playing time if an injury occurred. That won’t be an option now as Peraza himself got injured by suffering a shoulder strain that will shut him down for six to eight weeks.
As it currently stands, the Yanks have Oswaldo Cabrera, Jahmai Jones and Jorbit Vivas as depth infielders on their roster. Cabrera had an exciting debut in 2022 but hit just .211/.275/.299 last year. Jones was just claimed off waivers three weeks ago while Vivas has not yet made his major league debut and was optioned to Triple-A after today’s game. Players like Josh VanMeter, Jeter Downs and Kevin Smith are in camp as non-roster invitees though each of them has struggled against big league pitching.
The end of Spring Training usually shakes a few players loose, as roster decisions are made around the league. For instance, veteran infielder Josh Harrison just opted out of his minor league deal with the Reds after being informed he wasn’t going to make the team. The Yankees could turn to Harrison or some other player in the coming days if they feel they need an extra body to cover for a LeMahieu absence.
Infielders like Donovan Solano and Evan Longoria remain unsigned. The Yankees are facing a 110% tax on any addition to their payroll at this point, as a third-time payor that’s over the fourth line of the competitive balance tax, but those guys won’t require huge sums to put pen to paper. The position player market has seemingly collapsed in recent weeks, with players like Hernández, Rosario, Gio Urshela and others signing for less than $5MM in guaranteed money.
Ultimately, the bigger concern might be the season-long performance, as opposed to any week-long absence. The 2023 Yankees were hampered by health problems, as Aaron Judge was only able to play 106 games due to IL stints while veterans like LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo struggled while dealing with various ailments.
Health is already in the spotlight for the Yanks as ace Gerrit Cole is set to miss significant time due to an elbow issue. Even before that situation cropped up, they knew they were going to need some bounceback campaigns from those veterans. They will therefore want to make sure LeMahieu is as healthy and productive as possible, which is perhaps why Boone is now suggesting he won’t be playing through this issue. The club may need to look to alternatives at third base until LeMahieu is back to being explosive again.
]]>March 14: The Yankees and their fans can breathe a sigh of relief. Jon Heyman and Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post report that defending AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole is expected to avoid surgery after further evaluation on his ailing elbow. The recommendation is for a treatment program of rest and non-surgical rehab.
Heyman and Sanchez report that Cole is expected to be out for roughly one to two months. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that the timeline for a return to MLB action should be closer to 10-12 weeks. In either case, surgery isn’t on the table at present and the Yankees should get their ace back within the season’s first half.
That was the initial expectation. Team doctors reportedly identified the issue as elbow inflammation and concluded that Cole’s ulnar collateral ligament was intact. He nevertheless visited noted orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache for additional testing today. It seems that in-person evaluation confirmed the initial indication that Cole has not sustained any UCL damage.
It’s a positive development given the concern any time a pitcher, especially one at Cole’s level, heads for an MRI on his throwing elbow. Still, the Yankees are going to have to navigate the early portion of the schedule without him. If the timeline checks in closer to 10-12 weeks, he probably wouldn’t make his season debut until June. There’s a chance he winds up on the 60-day injured list.
There’s obviously no way to replace a pitcher of Cole’s caliber, but his absence puts additional pressure on the rotation depth. Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman and Nestor Cortes project as the top three arms in the season-opening rotation. Clarke Schmidt is penciled into the fourth spot. There’s not a clear #5 starter at the moment. Prospect Clayton Beeter is on the 40-man roster, as are Yoendrys Gómez and Luis Gil. The latter two were optioned to minor league camp in the first week of March, suggesting they’re a bit further down the depth chart. Chase Hampton and Will Warren are not on the 40-man roster, but they’re upper level starting pitching prospects with more advanced control than Beeter has shown in the minors. Luke Weaver has plenty of starting experience and returned to the Yankees via $2MM free agent deal. He’s coming off a 6.40 ERA season.
The Yankees could benefit from adding veteran stability to the back end. They recently checked in with Michael Lorenzen, arguably the #3 starter still on the free agent market. Lorezen certainly doesn’t have the upside of either of the top two unsigned pitchers, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, but he’d come at nowhere near the cost. That’s an obvious concern for a franchise that would pay a 110% tax on further spending.
If New York expected Cole to miss the entire season, perhaps that’d have increased their urgency to land one of Snell or Montgomery regardless of the money. That seems less likely with the Yankees anticipating Cole’s return in late May or early June, but a mid-tier arm like Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger could remain in play.
]]>The Yankees were already in the market for starting pitching, having been connected to Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery throughout the winter. Their need for rotation help only grew this week when ace Gerrit Cole was sidelined by an elbow issue. Cole and the Yankees are still gathering information but it seems like he will miss a month or two of the season even in a best-case scenario.
Whether Cole is ultimately destined for a brief or a lengthy absence, it’s a huge blow to the club’s rotation. Up until this issue popped up, he was the rocksteady leader of an otherwise shaky group. Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman all battled injuries last year to varying extents.
Stroman was having a great year prior to his injury woes, as he had a 2.96 ERA at the All-Star break, but hip and rib cartilage injuries led to diminished results and missed time, as he finished the year with a 3.95 ERA in 136 2/3 innings. Rodón and Cortes ended up having fairly similar years in terms of limited innings and poor results. Rodón battled a forearm strain and hamstring strain as he posted a 6.85 ERA in 64 1/3 frames. Cortes twice went on the IL due to a rotator cuff strain in his left shoulder and finished the campaign with a 4.97 ERA in 63 1/3 innings.
There’s tons of bounceback potential in that trio, as Stroman has a 3.65 ERA in his career while having reached 179 innings four times in his career. Rodón was an ace over 2021 and 2022, posting a 2.67 ERA in 310 2/3 innings in that time. Cortes had a 2.61 ERA in that same two-year stretch, though in a lesser workload of 251 2/3 innings.
If all three are able to get back to their previous forms, the rotation could be in good shape without Cole, but that’s a lot for the Yanks to gamble on. They are heavily committed to competing in 2024, as they gave up five players to get one year of Juan Soto. They also got Trent Grisham from the Padres in that deal, but Soto’s 2024 season was obviously the highlight for them. In addition to the talent they gave up, they are paying Soto a $31MM salary, plus the taxes incurred as a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax.
Even in an ideal situation where Stroman, Rodón and Cortes are all in good form, there’s still the back end of the rotation to think about. Clarke Schmidt will likely be taking one spot after he put up a 4.64 ERA last year. That’s probably fine for a #5 guy but the fact that the Yankees have been consistently connected to free agents suggests they would prefer to knock Schmidt down to #6, but he’s instead been bumped up to #4 for as long as Cole is out.
Current options to take a spot behind Schmidt would include Luke Weaver, Clayton Beeter, Luis Gil, Yoendrys Gómez or Will Warren. Weaver has posted an ERA of 6.40 or higher in three of the past four seasons. Gil missed most of the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery. Gómez has literally two innings of MLB experience while Beeter and Warren have none.
It’s a less than ideal group and it’s understandable that the club is interested in bolstering it. They’ve long been connected to marquee free agents like Snell and Montgomery but signing either of those guys would be especially costly. The Yanks are above the fourth and final tier of the CBT and are set to be a third-time payor, meaning any additional spending comes with a 110% tax bill. Even if Snell or Montgomery could be talked down to a $20MM annual salary at this late stage of the offseason, the Yanks would be looking at paying $22MM in taxes on top of that this year.
That situation would be lessened with Lorenzen, as he has a far more limited track record as a starter than those two. The Reds kept him in relief for most of his career but he sought out a return to starting when he reached free agency ahead of the 2022 season. He signed a one-year, $6.75MM deal with the Angels and was able to toss 97 2/3 innings, missing a couple of months with a shoulder strain and finishing the year with a 4.24 ERA.
It wasn’t an elite performance but he held his own and pushed up his annual workload. He then signed an $8.5MM deal with the Tigers for 2023 and took another step forward. He logged 105 2/3 innings with Detroit over 18 starts, with a 3.58 ERA in that time. He was traded to the Phillies and his first two starts for his new club were excellent. He allowed two earned runs over eight innings against the Marlins and then followed that up with a no-hitter against the Nationals.
He tossed 124 pitches in that no-hitter and seemed to break down after that. He was sporting a 3.23 ERA at that time but then allowed 27 earned runs in 30 1/3 innings the rest of the way, getting bumped to the bullpen in the process.
His 4.18 ERA on the year might not look amazing but it’s possible he ran out of gas after pushing himself further than he had gone before. Even if his true talent is a mid-4.00 ERA guy, that can be useful for the Yankees this year. Cole may be back in a few months but other injuries are inevitable and Lorenzen would improve the depth by pushing everyone down a peg.
It was reported last week that Lorenzen was holding out for a two-year deal that hasn’t yet materialized. Whether he can get that pact or ultimately has to settle for a one-year deal, he’ll be looking at a lesser salary than Snell or Lorenzen and the Yankees would have less to worry about in terms of taxes. A hypothetical $10MM salary, just as an example, would lead to $11MM in taxes. That’s still $21MM for a backend starter but it’s perhaps preferable to committing far more money and many more years for someone like Snell or Montgomery.
The Yankees were reportedly leaning towards acquiring Dylan Cease in the wake of Cole’s injury, as Cease’s $8MM salary would be far more palatable to them than the Snell/Montgomery duo, but Cease was traded to the Padres yesterday. There are some theoretical trade candidates still out there, such as Shane Bieber of the Guardians and Jesús Luzardo of the Marlins. However, both the Guards and the Fish are dealing with significant rotation injuries and may be less inclined to further subtract from their pitching staffs at the moment.
Lorenzen has received interest from the Mets, Angels, Twins, Padres and Orioles at various points this offseason, but he remains unattached now in mid-March. The Sox trading Cease seems to have given them some interest in signing Lorenzen to replace his innings, in addition to the Yankees sniffing around due to Cole’s situation. The regular season starts next week with the Seoul Series featuring the Dodgers and Padres but the rest of the league starts the season on March 28, two weeks from today.
]]>March 13: Reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole will miss at least the first month or two of the season due to an elbow injury, report Jon Heyman and Mark Sanchez of the New York Post. Cole underwent an MRI earlier this week after experiencing difficulty recovering between spring starts and throwing sessions. The Yankees haven’t made a formal announcement on the injury or a timetable yet. Heyman reports that initial imaging on Cole’s right elbow has not detected a ligament tear, though there’s some inflammation and swelling still present. Cole’s MRI has been reviewed by multiple parties, including renowned surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache. Per the report, ElAttrache did not see a ligament tear but nonetheless suggested an in-person visit to personally examine Cole.
While it’s a sigh of relief that early imaging didn’t reveal a major tear, the fact that Cole is going for further testing remains an ominous sign. Inflammation can at times be substantial enough that it masks structural damage. Only time will tell whether that’s the case with Cole. Regardless, to call even an absence of roughly four to eight weeks for Cole a major blow for the team would only be stating the obvious. The 33-year-old righty is on the short list of baseball’s best and — until now — most durable pitchers. Furthermore, the Yankees’ rotation behind Cole is rife with question marks.
New York signed right-hander Marcus Stroman to a two-year, $37MM deal in the offseason, but Stroman’s All-Star 2023 season was cut short by second-half injuries — a hip issue and rib cartilage fractures. He was sporting an ERA in the low-2.00s for much of the season but was hit rocked in July while pitching through the hip injury and struggled down the stretch after returning from what wound up being an extended absence due to the rib troubles.
Lefties Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes were both limited to fewer than 65 innings in 2023, and neither pitched anywhere close to his 2021-22 form. Rodon’s season was particularly alarming, given that he’d pitched at Cy Young-caliber levels the prior two years and inked a six-year, $162MM deal with the Yankees just last offseason. A forearm strain and hamstring strain combined to limit Rodon to 64 1/3 innings — during which time he posted a 6.85 ERA with a 22.4% strikeout rate that was 11.5 percentage points shy of his ’21-’22 rate. Cortes, meanwhile, twice hit the IL with a strained rotator cuff in his left shoulder. His 4.97 ERA in 63 1/3 innings was more than double the 2.44 number he’d posted the year prior.
Right-hander Clarke Schmidt was the only other Yankees pitcher to make even 20 starts last year. He took the ball for a full slate of 32 games, pitching 159 innings with a 4.64 earned run average. Schmidt’s 21.5% strikeout rate was below the league average, but his 6.6% walk rate was strong and his 43.8% grounder rate, which clocked in a couple percentage points ahead of the average starting pitcher. Schmidt was too homer-prone (1.36 HR/9) but at least looked like he could give the Yankees around five competitive innings every fifth day, which could prove crucial with Cole shelved for a notable period and several injury question marks alongside him on the starting staff.
The Yankees traded away a significant amount of rotation depth when dealing Michael King, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez to the Padres as part of the Juan Soto trade. Remaining in-house options for the now-vacant rotation spot include young righties Clayton Beeter, Luis Gil and Yoendrys Gomez — all three of whom are on the 40-man roster. Veteran righty Luke Weaver inked a one-year, $2MM deal and was expected to serve as a swingman, but he has ample starting experience in the majors and pitched well in three September starts for the Yanks last year. Top prospects Chase Hampton and Will Warren were both invited to camp as non-roster players, but neither is on the 40-man roster.
Of course, the possibility remains that the Yankees will go outside the organization to bring in a more established arm. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery remain unsigned, but the 110% luxury tax the team would pay on top of either player’s salary could prove exorbitant. Snell, in particular, would also cost the Yankees their second-highest draft choice in 2024 and require them to forfeit $1MM in bonus space from next year’s international amateur free agency pool. Ownership’s appetite for signing either player will now be tested. If not them, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote last night that righty Michael Lorenzen “could be an option” for the Yankees, though it’s not clear if the two parties have had any serious talks recently.
The trade market offers at least one more marquee name, and that seems to be the Yankees’ current area of focus. GM Brian Cashman and his staff have reportedly already presented the White Sox with a new offer for top starter Dylan Cease, though they’re joined by both the Rangers and Padres in their late pursuit of the 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up. The ChiSox had previously insisted that the Yankees include top outfield prospect Spencer Jones in any trade for Cease. The Yankees have balked at that ask. The new proposal to the Sox reportedly does not include Jones, though with several teams in the mix for Cease and the Yankees now staring down a potential two-month absence for Cole, it’s possible they’ll eventually acquiesce and meet Chicago’s asking price.
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]]>Trade talk surrounding Cease has died down in the latter stages of the offseason. White Sox GM Chris Getz has steadfastly held his asking price in negotiations throughout the offseason — an ask that other teams have deemed exorbitant.
If the Yankees indeed go outside the organization to bolster their staff, there’s some sense to preferring a trade to, say, signing a free agent like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. Snell and Montgomery would come with huge annual salaries that are magnified by the 110% luxury tax the Yankees would pay for any additions at this point, given the current state of their payroll. Snell, in particular, would cost the Yankees their second-highest draft pick and $1MM of space from next year’s international amateur free agency pool, as he rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. Cease has also been in camp with the White Sox, pitching in spring training games and building up for the season. Snell and Montgomery are surely working out on their own in preparation for the season, but that’s not necessarily the same as working in game settings. Cease wouldn’t come with any questions about whether he’d be ready for Opening Day, whereas a free-agent pickup at this point in the offseason calendar very much could.
Cease, the 2022 American League Cy Young runner-up, is earning $8MM this season and is controllable through the 2025 season via arbitration. He’s coming off a down year, having posted a pedestrian 4.58 earned run average in 177 frames with somewhat diminished averaged fastball velocity (96.9 mph in ’22, 95.8 mph in ’23). But Cease maintained strong strikeout numbers, missed bats at a plus level and was to some extent hampered by a .330 average on balls in play that was 46 points higher than his career mark entering the season. Other teams clearly view him as a playoff-caliber starter — evidenced by the widespread demand for him this winter — and the White Sox don’t seem likely to lower their asking price substantially, knowing they can also extract a substantial trade return for Cease this summer as long as he remains healthy.
Holding Cease with an eye toward the deadline presents the Sox with an obvious risk, as pitcher attrition in the sport is an inevitability. That’s underscored by the very reason the Yankees have apparently reengaged the White Sox on Cease. Cole and Cease have been the game’s two most durable starters for the past four years. Since 2020 (Cease’s first full season in MLB), Cease leads all big league pitchers with 109 starts. Cole’s 108 rank second, tying him with Aaron Nola and Jose Berrios. Even the most durable pitchers eventually break down, and if Cease incurs any kind of notable injury in the season’s first half, holding him will go down as a major setback in the White Sox’ rebuilding efforts.
Risk notwithstanding, the Sox have held firm in their asking price and seem prepared to wait until July if that price is not met. With regard to the Yankees, that includes Jones, a towering 6’6″ outfielder who’s drawn comparisons to Aaron Judge due to his physical size and his immense raw power. It’s unfair to expect any hitter to develop to Judge’s level, but the pure physical traits are similar. Baseball America credits Jones with plus power (60 on the 20-80 scale), while FanGraphs gives him a plus-plus rating (70-grade) in that department. Jones, who hit .267/.336/.444 between High-A and Double-A in his age-22 season last year, currently ranks 15th among all prospects at FanGraphs, 33rd at Baseball Prospectus, 46th at BA, 56th at ESPN and 84th at MLB.com.
Even if the Yankees remain unwilling to include Jones in an offer for Cease, the farm system is stacked with top-100 talents and with quality names behind that high-end contingent. Each of outfielder Jasson Dominguez, outfielder Everson Pereira, catcher Austin Wells, righty Chase Hampton, righty Will Warren and shortstop Roderick Arias has drawn top-100 fanfare on multiple lists. The overall depth of the system is considered strong as well, ranking sixth at ESPN, seventh at The Athletic, ninth at Baseball America and 11th at MLB.com.
The White Sox, who fired longtime baseball operations leaders Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams last summer, have been working to reshape the organization since shaking up the top end of the front office. Getz flatly stated that he “didn’t like our team” at the beginning of the offseason. Since taking the GM reins, he’d traded relievers Aaron Bummer and Gregory Santos, moved on from shortstop Tim Anderson and made a series of acquisitions to improve the club’s pitching depth and defense — two longstanding issues. Trading Cease would be his most significant transaction to date.
]]>On the one hand, the fact that Judge has avoided any kind of serious injury is an obvious cause for relief. On the other, it’s hardly ideal that the season hasn’t even begun and he’s less than 100 percent. Judge specified that the discomfort he’s felt has been in the middle of his abdominal muscles — not his oblique region. That’s particularly notable given that Judge has had a pair of oblique strains in the past, including a Grade 2 strain in 2019 that cost him two months of the season.
“I think just from swinging from November all the way until now, every single day, it put some wear and tear on it,” said Judge (via Hoch). “Especially coming back after a [right] toe injury when your mechanics are a little messed up and you’re just working on some things.”
Judge, 32 in April, was once again excellent in 2023 — though a hip strain in late April cost him 10 days, while the sprained toe he referenced wound up shelving him for more than a month. In all, he played in 106 games — his fewest in a 162-game season since 2019 — and posting a brilliant .267/.406/.613 slash with 37 home runs in just 458 trips to the plate.
The Yankees are already awaiting MRI results on ace and reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole. Coupling that with even minor concern about the team’s best all-around player makes for an uncomfortable few days for the club and its fans. The Yankees indicated yesterday that Cole is expected to receive multiple opinions on his MRI results. An announcement today is not necessarily a given. SNY’s Andy Martino wrote yesterday that club officials have characterized the Cole MRI as “precautionary” and downplayed concern over a potential long-term injury. Time will tell whether that proves to be the case.
In the wake of the Cole news, there’s been a renewed focus on the Yankees’ rotation depth and ample speculation on contingency plans. The remaining pair of high-profile Scott Boras clients — Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery — have been at the forefront of that speculation. Martino reported in his piece that the Yankees haven’t yet circled back to Snell since concerns about Cole arose. Joel Sherman of the New York Post throws some cold water on the idea of the Yankees pivoting to either left-hander.
The luxury tax concerns for the Yankees have been highlighted at length by now. As a reminder, they’re a third-time payor who’s in the fourth and final tier of penalization. Any further additions to the payroll will be taxed at a 110% rate (based on the contract’s AAV) on top of the player’s salary. In the case of Snell, he’d also require forfeiting the team’s second-highest draft pick and surrendering $1MM of pool space in next year’s international free agent bonus pool, because Snell rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres.
Perhaps in part because of that, Sherman reports that the Yankees were more interested in Montgomery earlier in the offseason than in Snell — despite making a reported offer to the latter. The Yankees, per Sherman, “could not get a strong engagement” from Montgomery at the time, however. That lines up with some late-February reporting from The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, wherein he wrote that Montgomery’s hope had been for a return to the Rangers and that it was “believed” he did not “prefer” a Yankees reunion. With Montgomery still lingering on the market and the Rangers seemingly disinclined to spend further, none of that should expressly rule out an eventual match between Montgomery and the Yankees.
Sherman suggests that the likeliest course of action for the Yankees is to stand pat regardless of the news on Cole, though he opines that if they do make a move, they’re likelier to meet the White Sox’ asking price for right-hander Dylan Cease than they are to sign Snell or Montgomery. Cease is making $8MM this season and is controlled through 2025 via arbitration. He’d come with an $8.8MM luxury hit, but that’s a pittance relative to the tax hits it’d take to sign Montgomery or Snell for an AAV of $25-30MM — if not more. Prior reporting has indicated that the ChiSox were insistent on the inclusion of top outfield prospect Spencer Jones in talks regarding Cease, while the Yankees have been loath to consider moving him in any deal.
]]>Cole will receive multiple opinions on the status of his elbow, and the Yankees don’t expect to announce a prognosis today or even tomorrow, tweets Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.
Boone didn’t provide additional details. The organization’s level of concern regarding a potential serious injury isn’t clear, though imaging performed on any pitcher’s elbow is an ominous sign. That’s particularly true in a Yankees rotation that can ill afford to lose its ace. Granted, no team is built to withstand the loss of a reigning Cy Young winner, but the rotation behind Cole is filled with a series of question marks.
The first season of Carlos Rodon’s six-year, $162MM contract with the Yankees played out in disastrous fashion. After a dominant two-year run between the White Sox and Giants from 2021-22, Rodon was limited by injuries in 2023, logging just 14 starts (64 1/3 innings) and yielding a grisly 6.85 ERA with strikeout and walk rates that both trended heavily in the wrong direction (22.4% and 9.8%, respectively — down from 33.9% and 7.1% in the two seasons prior).
A strained left rotator cuff limited southpaw Nestor Cortes Jr. to a near-identical slate of 63 1/3 frames in 2023. He’s broken out with a pair of sub-3.00 ERA campaigns over the two preceding seasons. While Cortes maintained strong strikeout and walk rates, he became even more fly-ball heavy, inducing grounders at a minuscule 26% clip. He saw his HR/9 mark spike from 0.91 the year prior to 1.56 in 2023. Cortes didn’t see a disproportionate number of his fly-balls leave the yard (just 11%), but the sheer volume of balls in the air worked against him both at home (1.45 HR/9) and on the road (1.73 HR/9).
The Yankees picked up Marcus Stroman on a two-year, $37MM contract this offseason to help solidify the rotation, but he’s coming off an injury-marred season of his own. Stroman was in the NL Cy Young conversation with a strong first few months of the ’23 season before being rocked in July and placed on the injured list due to a hip injury. While rehabbing, he was diagnosed with fractures in his rib cartilage that further slowed his return to the mound. He made it back for four appearances late in the season but didn’t pitch particularly well. After carrying a 2.88 ERA through his first 20 starts, Stroman pitched just 18 more innings on the season and was lit up for 26 runs (22 earned) in that time.
Right-hander Clarke Schmidt finished second on the team with 32 starts and 159 innings pitched, though he turned in back-of-the-rotation results due in large part to his own susceptibility to home runs. Schmidt looks like he can at least be an innings eater this season, but he’s yet to have the same type of MLB success that any of his rotationmates has enjoyed in the past. There’s surely hope within the organization that the former top prospect can take a step forward, but his ability to do so (or lack thereof) will be even more pivotal if it’s determined that Cole has any type of notable injury.
The depth options behind that top quintet are shakier still. Veteran Luke Weaver inked a one-year, $2MM deal late in the offseason and seems ticketed for a swingman role, but he could start games if Cole requires any kind of absence. Weaver pitched well in three starts for the Yanks late last season but had a collective 6.40 ERA between Cincinnati, Seattle and New York — his third time in the past four seasons recording an ERA north of 6.00.
Down on the farm, the Yankees have righties Luis Gil, Clayton Beeter and Yoendrys Gomez on the 40-man roster. Gil has the most big league experience, and impressive as he was through six starts in 2021, he’s pitched just 29 2/3 total innings over the past two years owing to Tommy John surgery. Gomez pitched two MLB innings last year. Beeter has not reached the majors. Prospect Will Warren had a nice year between Double-A and Triple-A in 2023 but isn’t yet on the 40-man roster. He’s in camp as a non-roster invitee, however. Fellow prospect Chase Hampton and southpaw Tanner Tully were also NRIs this spring, but both have already been reassigned to minor league camp.
The mere possibility of an injury to Cole will rekindle speculation regarding free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, both of whom have been tied to the Yankees at various points in the offseason. The Yankees reportedly made a five-year offer to Snell before pivoting to sign Stroman. The two sides have remained in touch with Snell, in particular, but a match has looked like a long shot given the massive tax implications that come with signing either lefty. The Yankees are a third-time luxury offender and are already in the highest tier of luxury-tax penalization. That means in addition to any actual salary for the upcoming season, they’ll pay a 110% tax on any additional contract’s average annual value. A $25MM AAV would come with a $27.5MM tax hit. A $30MM would carry a $33MM hit — and so on.
Previously, with a fully healthy rotation, such a lavish expenditure seemed unlikely. If the Yankees are facing a prolonged absence for Cole, however, that type of massive financial commitment could become far more plausible. Snell has reportedly been amenable to short-term, opt-out laden contracts with high annual salaries, while it seems Montgomery has been more focused on a longer-term contract. At this point of spring, however, it’s also worth wondering just how ready either free agent would be for Opening Day. A return to the trade market shouldn’t be discounted as a possibility, though the asking price on arms like Dylan Cease, Jesus Luzardo and others has been staggeringly high throughout the offseason (hance the lack of trade for either hurler).
]]>Peraza recently missed 10 days of Spring Training due to discomfort in his shoulder, and returned to action to play in two games earlier this week before he was sidelined again due to continued soreness. The infielder received an MRI and other tests over the last two days, and the unfortunate result is that Peraza will now miss a big chunk of the season. In the best-case scenario that Peraza is able to return to baseball activity in just six weeks, he’ll still need to properly ramp up and make up for his lost spring prep time, so late May might be the most optimistic possible recovery timeline.
Ranked as a top-70 prospect heading into each of the last two seasons, Peraza made his big league debut in 2022 and impressed with a .306/.404/.429 slash line in 57 plate appearances. He took a big step back (.191/.267/.272) in the larger sample size of 191 PA last season, though Peraza spent the majority of his season at Triple-A due to the somewhat crowded nature of New York’s infield. Anthony Volpe and Gleyber Torres had the middle infield positions covered, and Peraza received most of his playing time as a third baseman once DJ LeMahieu primarily moved to first base in place of the injured Anthony Rizzo.
Defense has never been much of an issue for Peraza, as he is considered a very strong fielder at multiple infield positions. This has led to some speculation that Peraza could even eventually supplant Volpe (last year’s AL Gold Glove winner) at shortstop, though the Yankees seem locked in on Volpe as their shortstop of the future. Since Torres and Rizzo could both be free agents next winter, plenty of space might soon open up in the infield for Peraza to step in as the new regular second baseman or third baseman, though naturally the first order of business is just to have a healthy and productive 2024 season.
It wasn’t clear if Peraza would even start this season on the 26-man roster, as the Yankees have recently been searching the market for a veteran backup infielder who could handle shortstop as Volpe’s backup. Finding such a player to pair with Oswald Cabrera or Jahmai Jones in a backup capacity would allow the Yankees to play Peraza at Triple-A on an everyday basis, and the team’s desire for experienced bench depth is even more pronounced now that Peraza will miss the better part of 2-3 months.
Jeter Downs, Kevin Smith, Jordan Groshans, and Josh VanMeter are currently in New York’s camp on non-roster deals. Jorbit Vivas (acquired from the Dodgers along with Victor Gonzalez in December) is an interesting prospect who is lacking in Triple-A experience, let alone any playing time as a big leaguer. Looking at the names remaining in free agency, players like Donovan Solano or Hanser Alberto could be theoretical fits, even if they aren’t really options as a backup shortstop. Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggested earlier today that the Yankees might seek out players who become available later in Spring Training, either via roster cuts or due to opt-outs in pre-existing minor league contracts.
]]>Oswald Peraza, of course, is ostensibly already slated to be New York’s backup infielder and backup shortstop in particular. However, the Yankees might prefer to continue Peraza’s development by giving him everyday work at Triple-A rather than more a sporadic part-time role in the Show. There is also the question of Peraza’s health, as a right shoulder issue has been bothering the infielder for the last two weeks. Manager Aaron Boone said the Yankees don’t consider the injury to be overly serious for now, though Peraza is undergoing testing to determine the nature of the problem.
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]]>Donaldson, now 38, took a winding path to the major leagues and was a late bloomer, but he nonetheless reached incredible heights as a big leaguer once everything aligned.
While playing third base at Auburn University, he began to learn how to catch. The Cubs then selected him as a catcher with the 48th overall pick in the 2007 draft. In July of 2008, he was traded to the Athletics, one of four players going to Oakland in exchange for Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin.
As he climbed the minor league ladder with his new club, his bat was considered ahead of his glove, an understandable situation given that he was relatively new to catching. He made his major league debut in 2010 but hit just .156/.206/.281 in his first 34 plate appearances.
He was stuck in the minors in 2011 and then spent 2012 being shuttled between the majors and the minors, gradually spending more time at third base over that stretch. His breakout season finally came in 2013, when Donaldson was 27 years old. Now done with catching for good, he got into 158 games for the A’s that year as their everyday third baseman. He hit 24 home runs and drew a walk in 11.4% of his plate appearances, only striking out at a 16.5% rate. His .301/.384/.499 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 147 and he got strong grades for his defense at the hot corner, leading to a tally of 7.3 wins above replacement from FanGraphs and 7.2 from Baseball Reference. He finished fourth in American League MVP voting.
Donaldson followed that up with a similarly excellent season in 2014 and the A’s made the postseason for a third straight year, but made a quick playoff exit all three times. The club decided to undergo a huge roster overhaul that winter, a frequent occurrence for the club and its persistent financial concerns. Going into 2015, the club traded away guys like Brandon Moss, Jeff Samardzija and also flipped Donaldson to the Blue Jays for a four-player package.
His first season in Toronto would eventually prove to be the best of his career. He launched 41 home runs and slashed .297/.371/.568 for a wRC+ of 154. The Jays won the A.L. East that year and Donaldson launched another three home runs in that year’s playoffs as the Jays advanced as far as the ALCS. He was graded as worth 8.7 fWAR and was voted as that year’s A.L. MVP, just ahead of Mike Trout.
He would go onto to have another excellent season for the Jays in 2016, hitting 37 home runs that year as they advanced to the ALCS yet again. He scored the winning run in the ALDS by dashing home from second on a fielder’s choice to secure an extra-inning victory over the Rangers.
But in 2017, injuries started to crop up, which would go on to be a key issue in the rest of his career. He was still excellent that season, slashing .270/.385/.559 while hitting 33 home runs, but was limited to 113 contests due to a calf strain. He and the Jays agreed to a $23MM salary for 2018, his final year of arbitration control. Since the Jays had fallen to fourth place the year prior, there were some trade rumors around Donaldson that winter but he ultimately stayed put.
He spent much of that year on the injured list due to shoulder and calf issues. With the Jays out of contention at the August waiver deadline, he was flipped to Cleveland for Julian Merryweather. Donaldson only played 16 games for Cleveland after that deal as he continued battling his injuries.
He finally reached free agency that winter, but with a limited amount of momentum. Thanks to his late-bloomer trajectory, he was going into his age-33 season and coming off an injury-marred campaign. Alex Anthopoulos, who acquired Donaldson when he was making decisions for the Blue Jays, had become the general manager in Atlanta prior to the 2018 campaign. He gave Donaldson a one-year “prove-it” deal worth $23MM.
Donaldson bounced back tremendously with Atlanta, getting into 155 games, walking in 15.2% of his plate appearances and hitting .259/.379/.521 for a 131 wRC+. He then rejected a qualifying offer from Atlanta and then signed a four-year, $92MM deal with the Twins. Issues with his right calf cropped up again in 2020, as he only played 28 games during that shortened season, but was able to get into 135 contests the year after and launch 26 home runs in the process.
With two years still left on that deal, the Twins flipped him to the Yankees alongside Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ben Rortvedt, with Gio Urshela and Gary Sánchez going the other way. Donaldson was healthy enough to get into 132 games in 2022 but his production tailed off. He only hit 15 homers and struck out at a 27.1% clip, leading to a line of .222/.308/.374. He spent much of 2023 on the injured list and was released at the end of August, joining the Brewers for the stretch run before returning to free agency this winter.
It wasn’t a storybook ending but Donaldson nonetheless managed to weave together quite a career. Despite not truly breaking out until the age of 27, he still managed to get into 1,384 games and rack up 1,310 hits. That latter figure includes 287 doubles, 12 triples and 279 home runs. He had matching tallies of 816 runs scored and runs batted in, stealing 40 bases in the process. He received an MVP award, three All-Star selections and two Silver Sluggers. His fiery personality which drove him to succeed also rankled some people around the game, as he often quarrelled with umpires, coaches and fellow players, but that combination of his talent and prickly character will likely lead him to being one of the more memorable players of his era. We at MLBTR salute him on his many accomplishments and wish him the best in whatever comes next.
]]>The Jays elected to have Gausman skip his scheduled throwing session on Monday. He’ll be reevaluated later in the week. There’s nothing to suggest his availability for Opening Day is in jeopardy at this point. It’s nevertheless a situation to which the Jays will pay close attention. Alek Manoah is also battling what appears to be minor shoulder soreness. They’re the bookends to a projected rotation that’ll include a middle trio of Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi and José Berríos. Right-hander Bowden Francis is probably the top option to step into the season-opening starting five if anyone from that group begins the year on the shelf.
A few other pitching injury situations early this week:
Groshans, 24, joined the organization just before the start of Spring Training last month when the club claimed him off waivers from the Marlins. The infielder’s professional career kicked off when he was selected 12th overall by the Blue Jays in the 2018 draft, and he spent the next few seasons working his way up the minor league ladder in the organization as he blossomed into a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport. He ultimately would not make it to the big leagues in Toronto, however, as he was shipped to the Marlins at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for relievers Anthony Bass and Zach Pop after struggling in his first taste of the Triple-A level.
The Marlins wasted little time in bringing Groshans up to the majors, giving him a 17-game cup of coffee in Miami down the stretch. He held his own while playing third base, though his slash line of .262/.308/.311 in 65 trips to the plate left something to be desired. While he remained in Miami throughout the 2023 season, Groshans did not make an appearance in the majors last year as he once again struggled at the plate in Triple-A. In 528 plate appearances across 125 games at the level last year, Groshans slashed a paltry .244/.339/.330 with just six home runs while splitting time between first and third base.
Given that lack of power and his move to the infield corners last year, the Marlins decided to move on from Groshans last month upon acquiring infielder Jonah Bride in a cash deal with the A’s. That decisions ultimately led to Groshans returning to the AL East as a member of the Yankees, with whom he’ll remain as a non-roster depth option headed into the 2024 season. While Groshans has yet to flash the power typically necessary to thrive at the infield corners, he has experience at all four infield spots and could compete with the likes of Jones, Jeter Downs, Kevin Smith as the top option to fill in on the club’s bench this year in the event of an injury.
]]>That projection systems see the AL East as a division with five potential contenders is supported by last year’s results. The Orioles led the pack last season with a 101-win record, capturing the division title despite a strong showing from the Rays, who finished two games behind Baltimore. Both Tampa and Toronto also managed to make the postseason last year, while New York and Boston both remained on the periphery of the playoff picture into September despite ultimately coming up short. Since then, each club has seen significant changes, and with the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery still on the market, it’s easy to imagine one or more of these club’s further improving their stock prior to Opening Day. In the meantime, let’s take a look at where things stand in the American League’s most competitive division:
Orioles: 101-61 in 2023, FG projects 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.2
The Orioles were perhaps the most surprising team in baseball last year, surging to the club’s first AL East title since the 2014 season thanks to contributions from youngsters like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Grayson Rodriguez. Those same young players will be back this season and figure to be joined by consensus #1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday at some point this season, perhaps as soon as Opening Day. The club’s exciting young core figures to once again be complemented by solid veterans such as Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander as well, giving them a strong offensive nucleus with which to attempt to continue their reign atop the East.
With that being said, the club has seen some turnover this winter. Veteran starter Kyle Gibson departed the rotation via free agency this winter, and while the club swung a deal earlier this offseason to acquire former Brewers ace Corbin Burnes to front their rotation, dealing away promising southpaw DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz could be something of a blow to the club’s depth headed into the season. More noticeably, two key pitchers from the 2023 season are entering the season with significant injuries: closer Felix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery late last year and figures to miss all of the 2024 campaign, while right-hander Kyle Bradish faces a lengthy absence of his own due to a UCL issue after leading the Baltimore rotation last season with a sterling 2.83 ERA across 30 starts.
While the injuries faced by Bradish and Bautista leave the Orioles without two of their top pitchers to open the season, the additions of Burnes and veteran closer Craig Kimbrel should help to soften those blows, and with youngsters such as Holliday, Cade Povich, and Coby Mayo all on the verge of contributing at the big league level, there’s plenty of reason to believe Baltimore can remain in the upper echelon of the league headed into 2024 as long as the club’s young stars can avoid taking a step back this season.
Rays: 99-63 in 2023, FG projects 86 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.9
The Rays started the 2023 campaign on an incredible hot streak, winning a record-breaking 13 consecutive games to open the season last year thanks to strong pitching performances from the likes of Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan. Unfortunately, each of those aforementioned arms underwent season-ending surgery last year and are expected to miss at least the first half of the 2024 campaign, if not longer. Tampa’s rotation mix was further weakened by the club dealing right-hander Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers back in December, leaving the club with little certainty in the starting mix outside of Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale. Another major loss from a production standpoint is shortstop Wander Franco, who posted 4.6 fWAR in 112 games last year but is facing sexual abuse charges in his native Dominican Republic that put his future in the majors in doubt.
Even with that hefty number of losses, however, the Rays still figure to be a force to be reckoned with headed into 2024. After all, the club sports one of the deepest lineups in the game, led by the likes of Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena. In addition to that group, the club sports plenty of young talent with the likes of Junior Caminero, Josh Lowe, and Curtis Mead all expected to contribute at the big league level at some point this season on the positional side. Meanwhile, the pitching staff boasts intriguing youngsters like Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, and offseason acquisition Ryan Pepiot, each of whom are likely to join Civale and Eflin as rotation pieces this season. The club’s perennially excellent bullpen continues to look strong as well, with a back-end trio of Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, and Colin Poche bolstered by offseason additions such as Phil Maton.
Given the number of significant absences the Rays are facing entering the season, it’s not necessarily surprising that projections systems expect the club to take a major step back in 2024. The club figures to rely on the likes of Jose Caballero and Taylor Walls in place of Franco at short and young, unproven arms like Bradley and Pepiot in place of established power arms like McClanahan and Rasmussen. Even so, the club’s deep lineup and strong bullpen figure to keep the club in contention for the AL East crown this season, particularly if the youngsters in the rotation find success in the big leagues.
Blue Jays: 89-73 in 2023, FG projects 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 88.6
The 2023 season was a strange one in Toronto, as key stars such as Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. took steps back at the plate to leave the club with a surprisingly tepid offense. That didn’t stop the Jays from contending last year, however, as the club managed to sneak into the final AL Wild Card spot with an 89-win campaign thanks to a strong performance from the club’s starting rotation. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, and Chris Bassitt each combined to give the club above-average production while making more than 30 starts a piece, and veteran southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu managed to step into the rotation and provide solid back-end production when youngster Alek Manoah struggled badly throughout the season.
Entering the offseason, the club seemed poised to make big changes as they were connected to the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, though they ultimately ended up having a much quieter offseason. After watching the likes of Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt depart in free agency, the club brought in the likes of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner to fill the void at third base and DH while adding to their pitching depth with the addition of Yariel Rodriguez. Those minor moves leave the club likely to look for internal improvements as they hope to return to the postseason in 2024. Some of that improvement could come from the club’s young talent, with top pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann likely to debut sometime this year while the likes of Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement figure to attempt to establish themselves in larger roles.
While the club’s lineup took a bit of a hit this winter after a disappointing 2023 campaign, a robust pitching staff figures to keep the Blue Jays afloat this season even if the offense fails to take a step forward. It’s easy to imagine the club returning to the postseason in 2024 if stars like Bo Bichette, Guerrero, and Springer can deliver impactful performances, especially if the club gets strong production from its supporting cast of hitters like Turner, Schneider, and Daulton Varsho.
Yankees: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 89 wins in 2024, PECOTA 94.7
After missing the postseason for the first time since 2017 and barely escaping the 2023 season with a winning record, the Yankees wasted no time this winter in looking to improve the club’s postseason chances for year two of Aaron Judge’s nine-year megadeal with the club. That included a complete retool of the club’s outfield mix as the club acquired Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, and Alex Verdugo to complement Judge on the outfield grass while balancing a lineup that leaned too right-handed in 2023. The blockbuster deal for Soto and Grisham cost the club plenty of big league pitching talent, including the likes of Michael King and Randy Vasquez, though New York went on to patch up the club’s starting rotation by landing veteran right-hander Marcus Stroman in free agency.
That lengthy offseason shopping list seems likely to leave them in strong position to contend this season even as they lost the likes of Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, and King from last year’s club. Even as the club added a quality mid-rotation arm, solid outfield regulars, and a superstar bat to its mix, however, it’s possible the club’s most impactful improvements could come internally after the club dealt with a hefty number of injuries last year. Judge followed up his 2022 AL MVP-winning performance with another season that saw him post an OPS north of 1.000 in 2023, though he was limited to just 106 games by a toe injury. Meanwhile, southpaws Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon both struggled badly with injuries and ineffectiveness last year but still carry front-of-the-rotation upside when healthy, while veteran hitters like Stanton and Anthony Rizzo could also benefit from improved health this season and rebound from difficult 2023 campaigns.
Of all the clubs in the AL East, it’s easy to make the argument that the Yankees did the most to improve this winter. While even those additions may not be enough to catch up to the club’s divisional rivals on their own after an 82-win campaign, improved health from the club’s key regulars both on the mound and in the lineup could certainly help the club avoid missing the postseason in back-to-back campaigns for the first time since the 2013 and ’14 seasons.
Red Sox: 78-84 in 2023, FG projects 81 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79.2
It’s been a strange offseason in Boston, as the club began the winter with promises of a “full throttle” approach to the 2024 season and a goal of improving the club’s rotation. Despite those major plans, the club has generally opted for smaller moves throughout the winter. Perhaps the club’s most notable move was parting ways with longtime ace Chris Sale in a trade that netted the club young infielder Vaughn Grissom, while Sale’s spot atop the club’s rotation appears poised to go to right-hander Lucas Giolito.
The club also added outfielder Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals while signing veteran closer Liam Hendriks to a two-year deal, though the righty won’t impact the team until the second half at the earliest as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Those moves more or less leave the club in a similar position as they were last season, with Giolito replacing Sale while O’Neill and Grissom figure to replace Adam Duvall and Turner in the club’s lineup. While the club’s most significant offseason losses have been replaced in one form or another, other departures such as those of James Paxton, Alex Verdugo, and John Schreiber have all gone unanswered to this point in the winter.
Despite the club’s many question marks, there’s some reason for optimism in Boston, thanks to the young talent that could impact the club this year. In addition to Grissom serving as a potential solution at second base, Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, and Brayan Bello took significant steps forward last year and could prove to be core pieces for the club, while youngsters like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela could also impact the club this season after making brief cameos in the majors last year. It’s certainly possible to imagine Trevor Story returning to the form that once made him a star with the Rockies now that he’s further removed from the elbow troubles that cost him much of last season, and Masataka Yoshida could be an impactful bat if he can recreate his performance from the first half of 2023 over the full season this year. Meanwhile, the rotation features a handful of interesting youngsters such as Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Kutter Crawford, any of whom could prove to be an impactful arm if they manage to take a step forward this year.
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On the heels of a 2023 season that saw three of the division’s five teams make the postseason and its fifth-place finisher end the season with a better record than the fourth place finishers of four other divisions, it’s perhaps not a surprise that the AL East figures to once again be among the most competitive divisions in baseball this year. After a busy offseason in the division, which team do you think will come out on top? Was the Yankees’ splashy offseason to put them back in the driver’s seat? Will another year of development for the young players in Baltimore allow them to repeat their dominant 2023 campaign? Will the deep rosters of the Rays or Blue Jays manage to outlast the competition? Or could the Red Sox outperform the projections and take the division on the back of their young players and rebound candidates?
Which team in the AL East is best? Have your say in the poll below!
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