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Mitch Haniger

Mitch Haniger Suffers Grade 1 Oblique Strain

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New signing Mitch Haniger’s status for Opening Day is unclear, after the Giants outfielder suffered a Grade 1 oblique strain yesterday, as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Haniger suffered the injury as a result of an awkward swing on Friday. He had been due to play in San Francicso’s game against the Rockies that day, but was scratched.

Haniger, 32, was San Francisco’s biggest off-season investment this winter, signing with the team on a three-year, $43.5MM deal and the Giants seemingly remain hopeful of Haniger featuring in their March 30 opener against the Yankees.

“I think anything is possible at this point. We’re still figuring out the return-to-play timeline. Obliques are challenging. Yes, I have had them. Sometimes they feel like they’re 100% healed, but then they’re not always 100% healed. I don’t have information yet that Mitch won’t be ready for the season for us. Maybe on the same track, maybe just less reps in spring training,” manager Gabe Kapler told reporters.

Grade 1 strains typically require a four week recovery period, which would obviously put Haniger’s availability for Opening Day in major doubt, but each strain is different so there’s a chance he recovers sooner. Haniger wound up with a .246/.308/.429 line with 11 home runs over 247 plate appearances last season for the Mariners, and is set to be the Giants everyday right fielder this year.

The signings of Haniger and Michael Conforto had appeared to push Joc Pederson into more of a full-time DH role, but the left-handed hitter could see some time in the corner outfield if Haniger isn’t ready for the start of the season. The other candidate to fill in would be Austin Slater, who currently projects as the team’s fourth outfielder. J.D. Davis has also seen time in the outfield, while the team has Stephen Piscotty with them as a non-roster player this spring, but for now they’ll hope Haniger can recover in time to make his debut on Opening Day.

Giants Notes: Conforto, Pederson, Guzman, Szapucki

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Michael Conforto logged six innings of right field work in this afternoon’s Spring Training contest against the Brewers. It was his first defensive time of exhibition play, as he’d previously been limited to designated hitter duties. Conforto has continued to build shoulder strength after his 2022 campaign was wiped out by surgery. Strengthening his arm has been the final hurdle in the rehab process; there were rumors Conforto could even return at the tail end of the ’22 campaign as a DH only, but he ultimately elected to wait things out until this offseason.

Despite the lost year, Conforto landed a surprising $36MM guarantee from the Giants. He’ll make $18MM this year and could test free agency next winter if he tallies at least 350 plate appearances during the upcoming season. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi discussed the signing with Joel Sherman of the New York Post, noting that while he’s “sympathetic” to those who were taken aback by the contract, the front office is “just so confident how good he’s going to be this year.”

Zaidi noted the Giants expect Conforto to be fully healthy and broadly expressed the belief he’ll return to the middle-of-the-order hitter he was for the majority of his time with the Mets. Zaidi called Conforto a candidate for a nine-figure free agent deal before his shoulder injury, although that’d have been likelier if he’d hit free agency after 2020 as opposed to following a relative down year in ’21 (.232/.344/.384 in 479 plate appearances). Regardless, it’s clear the Giants anticipate Conforto more closely resembling the player he was over the preceding four seasons, when he combined for a .265/.369/.495 line.

The signings of Conforto and Mitch Haniger overhauled San Francisco’s corner outfield. They’ll play regularly when healthy, although Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area writes that it’s still to be determined who’ll man which corner. Both players have seen more action in right field than left. Pavlovic notes that concerns about Conforto’s post-surgery arm strength could push him to left field but they’ll move the duo around in Spring Training to gauge their best alignment heading into the season.

The pair of offseason pickups should push Joc Pederson off the grass for the most part. He’s likely to be the designated hitter most days but has gotten some first base reps this spring to give the team slightly more flexibility. That’ll be put on hold during the World Baseball Classic, however. Pederson is expected to work solely in the outfield for the Israeli national team, writes John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. He’ll continue to get first base reps once he returns to S.F. camp.

That’s not the only experiment the Giants are running with the luxury of exhibition games. The club brought in former Rangers first baseman Ronald Guzmán on a non-roster deal and is allowing him to work as a two-way player. Guzmán has pitched three times this spring, allowing three runs in as many innings. He’s coming off easily his best outing, though, striking out Eddy Alvarez, Skye Bolt and Jesse Winker in a perfect inning today.

After the game, Gumzán told reporters he signed with the Giants in large part because they were the sole club offering him an opportunity to play both ways (link via Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic). “That was a big issue, to be honest. The Giants were the only team that wanted me to pitch only,” the 28-year-old said, noting that other teams targeted him strictly as first base depth.  “I had to really think about it. I had to let them understand how I feel about things. At the end of the day, they gave me the opportunity to do both but mostly pitch. But some teams rejected me. I knew what I wanted. I wanted to do both. And I knew I had the capability to do both.”

Baggarly writes that Guzmán isn’t under consideration for an Opening Day roster spot. He’ll head to Triple-A Sacramento once the season starts and continue working out of the bullpen there. The Giants have Taylor Rogers and Scott Alexander ticketed for MLB jobs, while Sam Long offers a depth candidate already on the 40-man roster. Guzmán joins Sean Newcomb and Darien Núñez among the non-roster players in camp.

Thomas Szapucki, one of four players acquired from the Mets in last summer’s Darin Ruf deal, also could factor into the group if healthy. He tossed 13 2/3 innings of three-run ball after the trade, striking out 16 while walking just four. Kapler told reporters today that Szapucki is headed for further examination after experiencing some elbow discomfort, however (via Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News). The club figures to provide more information about his outlook and return timetable in the coming days.

Giants Sign Mitch Haniger To Three-Year Deal

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The Giants have added one of their desired outfielders, announcing a three-year contract with Mitch Haniger. It’s reportedly a $43.5MM guarantee, and the deal allows him to opt out after two seasons. Haniger is represented by Apex Baseball.

A Mountain View native, Haniger returns to Northern California during his first trip to free agency. He’ll receive a $6MM signing bonus up-front, followed by a $5MM salary in 2023 and $17MM in 2024. At that point, he’ll have to decide whether to bypass the final season and $15.5MM remaining on the deal. Haniger would also receive a $1MM assignment bonus if traded.

While this isn’t the outfield splash San Francisco fans have been urgently awaiting, there’s no question Haniger’s an upgrade to a lineup that was middle-of-the-pack in 2022. He’s been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons with the Mariners, flashing middle-of-the-order potential at his best. Haniger has topped a .490 slugging mark in three separate campaigns, twice surpassing 25 home runs.

Earlier in his career, the Cal Poly product paired that with strong on-base marks. He reached base at a .366 clip during a 2018 season that arguably stands as his best to date, when he posted a .285/.366/.493 line over 683 plate appearances. That showing earned him an All-Star nod and an 11th-place finish in AL MVP balloting.

Injuries prevented Haniger from following up with another full season. He was off to a slower start in 2019, carrying a .220/.314/.463 line into the first week of June. An unfortunately-placed foul ball resulted in a ruptured testicle which required season-ending surgery, and the health concerns carried into 2020. He underwent core surgery over the 2019-20 offseason and ended up missing the entirety of the abbreviated season. The series of brutal health luck cost him more than 18 months of action, but he returned with an excellent 2021 campaign.

Haniger logged his most extensive workload to date that year, tallying 691 plate appearances over 157 contests. He launched a personal-best 37 homers, although his .253 batting average and .318 on-base percentage were closer to league average marks. That kind of power production in one of the sport’s more pitcher-friendly home venues made him 21 percentage points better than average offensively, by measure of wRC+, and he landed some down-ballot MVP votes for the second time.

This past season again saw Haniger battle injury concerns. A high ankle sprain cost him a few months and he managed just a .246/.308/.429 line in 57 games. That was a disappointing platform season to be sure, but it doesn’t seem to have seriously changed the Giants’ projection of his long-term outlook. Haniger’s batted ball data in that limited look remained strong, as he posted a career-best 91.9 MPH average exit velocity and 47.2% hard contact rate. Over the past two seasons, he owns a .251/.316/.470 line.

In addition to that power-oriented offensive profile, Haniger offers decent value on the other side of the ball. He’s not an option in center field, but he generally rates well in right field. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as 21 runs above average in more than 3800 career innings of corner outfield work. Both DRS and Statcast rated him below-average in 2021, but he posted slightly better than par marks in both 2019 and 2022. Haniger’s not likely to win any Gold Gloves, particularly since he’s now headed into his age-32 season. Yet even competent defense would be a major boost for a San Francisco team whose outfielders rated 22 runs below average in 2022 in Statcast’s estimation.

Seattle elected not to issue Haniger a qualifying offer, so the Giants won’t forfeit any draft compensation to bring him aboard. The M’s will not receive any compensation for his departure. With Haniger walking in free agency and Jesse Winker dealt to Milwaukee, Seattle’s likely to continue exploring the market for outfielders to pair with Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández.

The Giants surely aren’t done in the outfield themselves. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters yesterday the team hoped to bring in two outfielders to join Mike Yastrzemski and Joc Pederson, who’d presumably be pushed into a designated hitter role if that transpired. There’s no secret who the top target is. The Giants are one of the top suitors for Aaron Judge, and they’ve reportedly offered him a deal in the $360MM range. Whether the defending AL MVP will leave the Yankees remains to be seen, but the Haniger signing surely doesn’t impact San Francisco’s pursuit at the top of the market.

Haniger’s deal narrowly tops MLBTR’s prediction of three years and $39MM at the start of the offseason. It shouldn’t have a huge impact on the Giants financial breathing room, as it only brings their 2023 payroll to around $143MM. The deal’s $14.5MM luxury tax hit puts their CBT ledger around $156MM, per Roster Resource. That’s nowhere close to the $233MM base tax threshold, nor is their actual spending near the $200MM range the Giants have reached in prior years. They’re sure to make more impactful additions in the coming weeks and months, but Haniger marks their first major step in bolstering their lineup as they try to track down the Dodgers and Padres in a competitive NL West.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Giants and Haniger had agreed to a three-year, $43.5MM deal. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area was first to report the deal contained a post-2024 opt-out clause. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the specific financial breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Mitch Haniger’s Market

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Next week’s Winter Meetings are expected to open the floodgates for some hot stove activity, and among the free agents drawing substantial interest leading up to those meetings is longtime Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger. The 31-year-old (32 next month) has a “robust” market, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, and colleague Buster Olney tweets that there’s a growing belief he’ll be able to secure a three-year contract — perhaps in the vicinity of $15MM per year.

Haniger has, to this point in the offseason, been linked to each of the Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Giants, Rangers and the Mariners, who are open to adding another outfielder even after acquiring Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays last month. The Halos’ interest, it should be noted, was reported prior to their acquisition of Hunter Renfroe. It seems likely that move probably put an end to their pursuit of Haniger; the Angels also have Mike Trout and Taylor Ward locked into outfield spots and Shohei Ohtani at DH, of course.

Even presuming the Angels are out of the running, that’d leave at least five teams — and quite likely a few more — in the mix for Haniger, who missed substantial time this season due to a high ankle sprain but has generally been an above-average to excellent hitter when healthy enough to take the field. Dating back to 2017, Haniger boasts a .263/.337/.480 batting line — 24% better than league average by measure of wRC+, which weights for his pitcher-friendly home park. Haniger belted 39 home runs in a season as recently as 2021 and is one of the few outfielders on this offseason’s market who can be viewed as a viable 30-homer threat.

Of course, the knock on Haniger has been his ability to remain on the field — or rather, his lack thereof. Haniger’s 2019 season was cut short when he sustained a ruptured testicle after a poorly placed foul ball off his own bat. Just two months later, while rehabbing from the subsequent surgery, Haniger experienced back discomfort and learned that he’d torn an adductor muscle off the bone. The fallout from that second injury snowballed and ultimately saw Haniger require core muscle/hernia surgery and a microdiscectomy operation.

It was one of the more bizarre and also fluky sequences of injuries for any player in recent memory, but the end result was still a 22-month absence from the playing field for Haniger. He returned with that aforementioned 39-homer campaign, however, and has posted a combined .251/.316/.47o slash with 50 homers in 938 trips to the plate since coming back from that nightmarish run of health troubles. Haniger’s once-premium defensive ratings dipped in 2021, but he posted positive marks in both Defensive Runs Saved (3) and Outs Above Average (2) in this year’s small sample of 396 innings.

Heading into the offseason, MLBTR ranked Haniger 20th on our Top 50 Free Agent list, predicting a three-year contract at an annual rate of $13MM. Olney’s report suggests that Haniger’s market could be reaching if not pushing a bit beyond that level. If interest is indeed ramping up to that extent, it stands to reason that Haniger could be one of many free agents to come off the board during next week’s Winter Meetings or shortly thereafter.

Red Sox Interested In Mitch Haniger

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The Red Sox have expressed interest in free agent outfielder Mitch Haniger, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Boston joins the Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, Angels and incumbent Mariners among the clubs known to have checked in with his representatives.

Haniger is one of a handful of mid-tier corner outfielders available in free agency. The outfield market is topped by Aaron Judge and, after a significant gap, Brandon Nimmo. There’s another drop to the third tier, a mix that includes Andrew Benintendi, Jurickson Profar and bounceback types like Cody Bellinger and Michael Conforto alongside Haniger.

While Haniger isn’t in the same boat as Bellinger or Conforto, he’s also looking to rebound from a relatively down year to match pre-2022 heights. He lost a good chunk of this past season with a high ankle sprain. That kept him to 57 contests and 247 plate appearances, in which he hit .246/.308/.429 with 11 home runs. That’s still above-average offensive production once one accounts for the pitcher-friendly nature of Seattle’s T-Mobile Park, but it marked a somewhat disappointing follow-up to a 2021 campaign that saw him land some down-ballot MVP votes. Haniger connected on 39 homers with a .253/.318/.485 line over 157 games that year.

Various injuries have nagged the Cal Poly product throughout his MLB tenure, and he’s only twice exceeded 100 games in a season. When healthy, however, he’s typically provided a strong source of power from the righty batter’s box. Haniger owns a .244/.315/.469 line dating back to the start of 2019, and he’s mashed opposing left-handed pitchers to the tune of a .274/.355/.536 showing. His production against same-handed arms is closer to average, but he’s certainly playable against pitchers of either handedness. He typically rates as a solid defender in the corner outfield but isn’t an option for work in center.

The Red Sox have a fairly clear use for corner outfield help. Jarren Duran hasn’t performed at the major league level the way many had expected after he broke out as a prospect. He’s now 26 years old and owns a career .219/.269/.354 line at the MLB level. Duran hasn’t earned much consistent work against big league pitching and a win-now Boston club would be hard-pressed to rely on him for an everyday role. Alex Verdugo has played well at times but posted overall numbers around league average for the past two seasons. Haniger would be an upgrade on either player, and Boston also has an uncertain DH mix with the free agency of J.D. Martinez.

Mariners Open To Adding Another Outfielder

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The Mariners have already taken steps to reshuffle their outfield in the offseason’s early going. They landed two-time Silver Slugger award winner Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays for high-leverage reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko, then shipped out former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis for catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel.

More changes could be on the horizon, as president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto informed reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) the team was open to bringing in another outfielder. The Seattle baseball ops leader unsurprisingly didn’t tip his hand as to specific targets but suggested the club was content to wait things out and identify the right fit.

“We do have more than one target,” Dipoto told reporters. “There are a handful of players that fit us that we feel good about especially as it pertains to outfielders. We feel like there’s still a market that is more robust. And if we’re just patient, we’re going to find the player that suits our roster the best.”

That doesn’t sound like a declaration the M’s are planning a run at top free agent Aaron Judge, and defending Rookie of the Year Julio Rodríguez reduces the urgency to go after center fielder Brandon Nimmo. The Mariners could theoretically pursue Nimmo with an eye towards pushing him to the corner opposite Hernández, but there are plenty of other teams with direct needs in center field. With the bidding for the former Met likely to push over nine figures (and cost the signing team a draft choice), the next tier down seems more plausible for Dipoto and his staff.

Among that group is Mitch Haniger, who’s a free agent after six seasons in Seattle. The M’s opted not to tag with him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, clearly unwilling to commit him a salary approaching $20MM for next year. A multi-year deal at a lower annual term still seems a possibility, and general manager Justin Hollander told Divish and others the club remains in contact with Haniger’s representatives at Apex Baseball.

Other free agent possibilities include Andrew Benintendi, Jurickson Profar, Cody Bellinger and Washington native Michael Conforto, who’s looking to reestablish himself as a middle-of-the-order caliber hitter after a season lost to shoulder surgery. Bellinger and Conforto figure to land shorter-term, bounceback deals while Benintendi and Profar are virtually certain to land multi-year commitments. Dipoto and his staff are among the most aggressive in scouring the trade market as well, and a number of corner bats could plausibly be discussed. Anthony Santander, Alex Verdugo, Max Kepler and Jake McCarthy are among the players who’ve been mentioned as at least speculative trade candidates this offseason. Bryan Reynolds and Randy Arozarena are less likely to move — particularly Reynolds, whom the Pirates have been reluctant to deal for years — but are sure to draw calls from other teams based on their multiple seasons of arbitration control and consistently strong performances.

The Mariners are firmly in win-now mode after a second straight 90-win season that snapped their 21-year playoff drought. Dipoto, Hollander and company have been and will continue to be aggressive in building around their excellent young core, but it’s worth noting they’re not devoid of in-house options who could play their way into a regular role alongside Hernández and Rodríguez.

Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell haven’t found much success at the MLB level, but they’re each former top prospects who are still in their mid-20’s and coming off quality performances in Triple-A. Dipoto name-checked both players, as well as prospect Cade Marlowe, as internal candidates to take the next step. The M’s could entertain dealing Kelenic or Trammell for a lower-upside but more stable veteran bat as well, and Divish reports Seattle “shopped Kelenic extensively” at last summer’s trade deadline.

There’s also the presence of Jesse Winker, who was acquired last spring in the deal that saw Seattle assume the final three years of the Eugenio Suárez contract. Winker was the headliner of the trade from the M’s perspective, but Suárez surprisingly outperformed him in their first season in the Pacific Northwest. Under contract for $8.25MM in his final year of club control, Winker won’t have immense trade appeal coming off a .219/.344/.344 showing.

The M’s could elect to hold him and hope for better results, but they’ve reportedly floated his name early this offseason. Winker played dreadful defense in left field, and Divish has previously suggested Winker’s lack of improvement on that side of the ball played a role in him falling into some disfavor in the Seattle clubhouse. At his best, the left-handed hitter has shown he’s capable of impact offensive production against righty pitching, but the front office will have to decide whether pairing an outside addition with a change of scenery for Winker is a better fit heading into 2023.

Mitch Haniger Drawing Interest From Several Teams

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Nov. 21: Both the Dodgers and Angels have also expressed interest in Haniger, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi.  For the Dodgers, who non-tendered Cody Bellinger and played utilityman Chris Taylor as their most frequent left fielder in 2022, Haniger could split time between left field and designated hitter (likely pushing Taylor to the infield, where Trea Turner could potentially depart).

Over in Anaheim, Haniger would likely supplant former top prospect Jo Adell, who’s yet to establish himself as a big league regular in parts of three seasons (161 games, 557 plate appearances).

Nov. 20: Though a high ankle sprain and a two-week stint on the COVID-related injured list limited Mitch Haniger to only 58 games last season, the outfielder is drawing a lot of attention on the free agent market.  According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Giants and Rangers are two of the clubs looking at the former All-Star.

Haniger hit .246/.308/.429 with 11 homers over 247 plate appearances in 2022, which translated to a solid 113 wRC+.  He hit for a lot (47.2%) of hard contact, and considering how teams increasingly used the shift to limit Haniger’s numbers over the last two seasons, the changing shift rules for 2023 might lead to Haniger better translating those hard-hit balls into base hits.

Due to a ruptured testicle and a torn adductor muscle, Haniger played in just 63 games in 2019 and he missed the 2020 season entirely.  Returning for a full season in 2021, Haniger hit .253/.318/.485 with 39 homers in 691 PA — pretty close to the production the outfielder delivered in his first two seasons with the Mariners in 2017-18.

Between this health history, his lack of a real platform season, and his age (32 in December), Haniger faces an interesting trip in free agency.  Despite all the drawbacks, MLBTR still projected him for a three-year, $39MM deal based on how well Haniger has performed when healthy.  It is possible Haniger might pursue a deal with an opt-out clause after the first season, or perhaps just a straight one-year deal entirely so he can re-enter the market next winter on the heels of what he hopes will be a healthier and more productive 2023 season.  Or, it wouldn’t at all be surprising if Haniger wanted to lock in a multi-year commitment now, given how injuries have already sidetracked his career on multiple occasions.

Beyond just his ability at the plate, Haniger has also generally displayed above-average glovework in right field.  That would make him a particularly good fit with a defensively-conscious team like the Giants, and his right-handed bat would balance out a lefty-heavy outfield mix of Joc Pederson, LaMonte Wade Jr., Mike Yastrzemski, and Luis Gonzalez.  If San Francisco did sign Haniger, the Giants might then dangle one of their other outfielders in trade talks, or perhaps just use Wade more frequently at first base.

The Rangers, of course, are very familiar with Haniger after seeing him as an opponent for so many years in the AL West.  Texas also has a need in the outfield, with Adolis Garcia the only real lock for everyday playing time and Leody Taveras perhaps also favored for regular work in center field.  Haniger could slide into the right field mix and put Garcia in left field, and Haniger could also get some DH at-bats when Brad Miller takes a seat against left-handed pitching.

The Giants and Rangers are expected to be two of the offseason’s most aggressive teams, with San Francisco looking to bounce back after a disappointing 81-81 season and Texas trying to get back to winning baseball after six straight years under the .500 mark.  Both clubs have money to spend, and it’s probably worth noting that Haniger might be a backup plan to Aaron Judge in San Francisco, given how the Giants have been so frequently tied to the Bay Area native on the rumor mill.  If Judge’s asking price gets too high for the Giants’ liking, they could perhaps pursue an alternate route of signing Haniger for right field and then splurging on another top free agent (like one of the major shortstops, or an ace pitcher).  The Rangers are expected to be focusing much of their winter efforts on rotation upgrades, but bolstering the lineup is also on the to-do list.

Mariners Won’t Extend Qualifying Offer To Mitch Haniger

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The Mariners aren’t going to extend a $19.65MM qualifying offer to outfielder Mitch Haniger, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Jon Morosi of MLB Network had earlier reported that Haniger was unlikely to get a QO.

Haniger has been an interesting borderline QO candidate since he’s been a consistently excellent hitter for years but has struggled to stay healthy for extended stretches. Since coming over from the Diamondbacks in a trade prior to the 2017 season, Haniger has played in five seasons for the Mariners, putting up a wRC+ above 100 in each of them.

He was relatively healthy in 2017, getting into 96 games that year, followed by 157 in 2018. However, he was limited to just 63 contests in 2019 and then missed the 2020 campaign entirely. In 2021, he had a tremendous return, getting into 157 games, hitting 39 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .253/.318/.485 and a 121 wRC+. Unfortunately, the injury bug came for him again in 2022, with Haniger making multiple trips to the IL due to ankle sprains. He was still good when on the field, as he hit .246/.308/.429 for a wRC+ of 113. However, he did that in only 57 games on the year.

That is the story of Haniger at this point. He’s always a good producer when he steps up to the plate, it’s just hard to know how often he’ll be doing it. Extending the qualifying offer would come with risk, since those injuries have helped suppress his arbitration earnings. Haniger gradually pushed his salary up throughout the arb process, getting to $7.75MM here in 2022. If he suddenly had the chance to play for $19.65MM, it would likely be difficult for him to turn it down.

The Mariners are currently projected by Roster Resource to have a 2023 payroll of $132MM. Suddenly adding that $19.65MM figure into the mix would get them pretty close to their franchise record of $158MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Haniger could certainly be worth that investment but another injury-marred campaign could hamper the team’s ability to continue competing going forward.

It’s a high-risk, high-reward bet that it seems the Mariners have decided not to make. That means Haniger will now head to the open market to see how other teams value him. Since Haniger’s future contributions are difficult to gauge, it’s possible there will be wide variance in how different teams evaluate him. However, for teams looking to steer clear of QO’d free agents in order to avoid forfeiting draft picks, Haniger could certainly pique their interest.

He will be one of the more interesting names available in the corner outfield market this winter. Aaron Judge is the obvious headliner but the next tier with feature Haniger alongside names like Andrew Benintendi, Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley and Michael Conforto.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Mitch Haniger Interested In Returning To Seattle

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Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports that outfielder Mitch Haniger is hoping to return to the Mariners in 2023. Haniger, 32, is a pending free agent following a season where he slashed .246/.308/.429 in just 57 games as he was limited by ankle and back injuries throughout the year. The Mariners, for their part, have been effusive in their praise of Haniger, but have not publicly committed one way or the other regarding a possible reunion.

Divish opines that Seattle may extend Haniger a qualifying offer, and notes that Haniger would likely accept one if offered. The Mariners tagging Haniger with a QO would register as a surprise given his age, extensive injury history, and the depressed market that low-OBP, power-hitting corner outfielders like Haniger have found in free agency in recent years. Furthermore, Seattle is loaded on talent in the outfield, with Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Taylor Trammell, and Jesse Winker among the options already under team control for 2023 to man the outfield alongside superstar Julio Rodriguez. With a clear hole at second base and high dollar contracts allotted to the likes of Robbie Ray and Luis Castillo, it’s possible that re-signing Haniger may not be the best use of Seattle’s resources this offseason.

On the other hand, Haniger is a beloved team leader who has been with the Mariners for six seasons, which makes him the longest-tenured player in a clubhouse that has frequently undergone roster churn in recent years. Furthermore, he’s been a reliable contributor offensively whenever he’s been on the field, having posted above-average seasons by OPS+ every season he’s played following his rookie 2016 season, when he played just 36 games. While the Mariners certainly have a plethora of options in the outfield entering next season, none of them (Rodriguez aside) come with Haniger’s track record of productivity. Winker is coming off a down season, Kelenic has struggled in the majors despite his prospect pedigree, Lewis has played just 54 games in the majors since his 2020 Rookie of the Year campaign and badly struggled when he was facing major league pitching in 2022, and Trammell may be better suited as a bench bat than an every day player.

Given all this, a reunion with Haniger could make sense for Seattle, though perhaps not at the level a $19.65MM QO would require. Divish suggests a multiyear deal in the $10-12MM AAV range could make sense, and that seems more plausible, though Haniger may have to resort to a shorter term deal given his injury-marred season in 2022.

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