We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.
I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.
Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)
Now, in an interview with La Vida Baseball’s Polo Ascencio (hat tip: Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch), Molina suggests that if he doesn’t receive the right offer, he feels he could retire with his head held high after a terrific 17-year career. Molina made clear that he’s still working out, getting ready as if he’ll play in 2021.
It’s hard to imagine Molina walking away when he’s previously been so adamant about continuing his career, but the Cardinals haven’t been aggressive in their efforts to retain Molina or longtime teammates Adam Wainwright and Kolten Wong — both free agents themselves (Wong after having his 2021 club option declined).
The rest of the market for Molina’s services, meanwhile, may have changed a bit since receiving that early interest. The Mets signed James McCann, taking them out of the market for another catcher. Molina previously mentioned interest from the Padres, but they picked up Victor Caratini from the Cubs. The Yankees are still in a staring contest of their own with DJ LeMahieu and don’t appear willing to spend elsewhere until there’s resolution on that front. The Angels, another club mentioned by Molina himself, could still be a fit but are surely looking at the pitching market and perhaps at J.T. Realmuto, who also remains unsigned. The Phillies would make another on-paper fit, but they, too, are intently waiting to see where Realmuto’s market goes. Goold notes that the Nationals have also been in touch with Molina, but they’ve been focused on adding more thump to their lineup to this point.
At the very least, it seems likely that once Realmuto is off the board, Molina will receive strong one-year interest as the clear best alternative on the market. Whether that pushes the Cardinals or another club toward the two-year term he prefers can’t be known at this time, nor can the level of potential gamesmanship in his comments about retirement be known. However, with about $155MM in career earnings under his belt already, Molina won’t feel financially obligated to simply take the best offer out there if he doesn’t feel he’s being valued appropriately on the market.
There’s no denying that Molina’s bat has tailed off over the past two seasons. He remains extremely difficult to strike out (13 percent) but has posted a combined .268/.310/.388 batting line since Opening Day 2019 — a pronounced decrease from the .282/.330/.434 output he notched from 2016-18. Molina’s bat is still roughly in line with that of the league-average catcher (by measure of wRC+), however, and he’s still revered for his ability to call a game, frame and block pitches, and control baserunners.
]]>This group includes at least six teams — the Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets, and Red Sox. The Astros and (maybe?) the Nationals were also linked to LeMahieu earlier this winter, so it’s fair to assume some new calls may have been placed to those teams. Of the six clubs cited, it was already known that the Mets, Dodgers, and Jays were in on LeMahieu, with Toronto mentioned as the batting champion’s most fervent suitor apart from the Yankees.
This is the first time, however, that the Red Sox, Braves, and Cardinals have been linked to LeMahieu, opening up an intriguing new set of possibilities. All three teams were among those who had the early interest in LeMahieu, however, so it could be that those were simply due diligence check-ins, or plans may have changed as the winter market has developed. That said, due to some feeling earlier in the offseason that a LeMahieu/Yankees reunion was inevitable, more teams may now make a more serious push if they have a sense that LeMahieu may actually sign elsewhere.
Not much seems to have changed with LeMahieu’s asking price, as Brown reports that LeMahieu is looking for “at least” five years and $110MM. Previous reports indicated a similar price from LeMahieu’s camp, with the Yankees’ top offer apparently falling short by more than $25MM. The Cardinals may not be willing to spend much this offseason. The Braves could be in somewhat of the same situation after already investing in Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly, though Atlanta has a lot of salary coming off the books following the 2021 season. Boston has the spending capacity but the team wasn’t thought to be shopping at the top of the free agent market this winter, in part because signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent like LeMahieu would cost a draft pick.
The acquisition of Francisco Lindor might also take the Mets out of the LeMahieu hunt, and longtime Dodger Justin Turner has been cited as Los Angeles’ top choice to handle third base (even if Turner’s ask for a four-year contract is very likely to go unfulfilled). It isn’t known what Toronto’s top offer to LeMahieu is or was, but since the Jays are reportedly willing to give a similar contract to George Springer, they could pivot by putting that offer on the table for LeMahieu.
Several virtual meetings are planned between LeMahieu and various teams over the coming week, Brown writes, so we could have more clarity on the All-Star’s situation soon. At this juncture, it’s hard to say where LeMahieu might end up, or if perhaps other mystery teams could emerge. Of course, LeMahieu could also wind up with the Yankees after all, if New York feels it needs to increase its offer in response to any additional pressure from one or more clubs.
]]>Carpenter is entering his age-35 season, and he is likely correct in guessing that another tough year will greatly lessen his chances at anything beyond a low-cost MLB contract or even a minor league deal next winter. Carpenter finished ninth in NL MVP voting as recently as 2018, but has since hit .216/.332/.372 over 661 plate appearances in 2019-20. Between the Cardinals’ COVID-19 outbreak and the compressed schedule of make-up games once they returned to play, Carpenter didn’t feel the 2020 season was “a fair representation, hitting or pitching, good or bad” for the entire club. Still, Carpenter knows he needs to get on track, saying “the last two seasons, in my eyes, our offense has been about a bat short….I have basically been the one bat missing. I put a lot of the responsibility for the offensive woes the past two seasons on myself.”
10:52 am: In early December, the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters made center fielder Haruki Nishikawa available to major league teams via the posting system. That opened a 30-day window for MLB clubs to work out an agreement with Nishikawa; otherwise, the 28-year-old would return to the Fighters for at least another season.
Today marks the final day of Nishikawa’s posting window, as was first noted last month by Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). While no one knows if the left-handed hitter will put pen to paper in the coming hours, it seems he has attracted the attention of a few MLB teams. Japan’s Nikkan Sports reported earlier this week (Japanese-language link) that the Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals and Diamondbacks were among those with interest in the outfielder. It isn’t clear if any of those four (or any other MLB club) has actually put forth a formal offer, however.
Over parts of nine seasons at Japan’s highest level, Nishikawa has hit .286/.382/.394. He’s coming off a very strong 2020 seasons with the Fighters, wherein he slashed .306/.430/.396 with more walks than strikeouts across 523 plate appearances. Nishikawa has never been much of a power threat, but he’s consistently hit for high batting averages and drawn plenty of walks.
If Nishikawa were to come to an agreement with an MLB team, the signing team would owe a release fee to the Fighters. That fee, which comes on top of the contract paid to the player himself, is equal to 20 percent of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars thereafter. Nishikawa’s track record in NPB is lesser than that of countryman Shogo Akiyama, who inked a three-year, $21MM deal with the Reds last winter. It’d be a surprise to see Nishikawa top that mark, so in all likelihood his posting fee will fall squarely into that first tier, 20-percent bracket. Nishikawa’s former Fighters teammate, right-hander Kohei Arihara, signed with the Rangers last week.
]]>The Cardinals caught heat for cutting ties with Wong in the first place, but it was not an indefensible decision. The team saved $11.5MM by letting go of Wong, who would have earned $12.5MM in 2021 in lieu of a $1MM buyout had the Cardinals retained him. Wong’s option would have been pricey for St. Louis or any other team.
To Wong’s credit, the 30-year-old has been a valuable part of the team since he debuted in 2013. A two-time Gold Glove winner, Wong has mixed outstanding defense (55 DRS, 32.6 UZR) with respectable offensive production throughout his career. Most recently, he batted .265/.350/.326 with one home run and five stolen bases over 208 plate appearances in 2020.
With Wong at least temporarily out of the picture, Tommy Edman is the in-house favorite to start at second for the Cardinals in 2021. If they’re not content with Edman, and if Wong goes someplace else, they could pivot to free agents such as Tommy La Stella or Cesar Hernandez.
Considering his solid all-around game, Wong could land with several teams this offseason for a lesser price (at least on an annual basis) than the Cardinals turned down. MLBTR predicted at the outset of the winter that Wong would sign for $16MM over two years. Since then, no fewer than a half-dozen teams have shown interest in Wong.
]]>Pirates (219 runs scored, 73 wRC+):
Rangers (224 runs, 67 wRC+):
Cardinals (240 runs, 93 wRC+):
Reds (243 runs, 91 wRC+):
Brewers (247 runs, 89 wRC+):
Despite being at something of an impasse, there appears to be continued mutual interest. Cardinals ownership still wants to bring back Molina and right-hander Adam Wainwright, whom they consider “legacy players” in the franchise’s history, notes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. For his part, St. Louis remains “where (Molina) wants to be,” a source tells Goold (Twitter link).
The veteran catcher told Mas Que Pelota last month that, in addition to his talks with the Cardinals, he has heard from the Yankees, Mets, Padres and Angels. (The Mets have since signed James McCann, no doubt taking them out of the running). That gives the nine-time All-Star alternatives if the Cards’ front office holds firm on their current valuation. Molina returning to St. Louis still seems a desirable fit for both sides, but they’ll need to bridge their apparent gap on terms to make that happen.
]]>Rondon, 27 in March, appeared in 106 games between the Padres, White Sox and Orioles from 2016-19, mostly with the White Sox. He’s a career .201/.260/.336 hitter with nine homers in 290 plate appearances. Rondon has appeared at all four infield positions and at left field in the Major Leagues, albeit just 16 combined innings at left field and in first base. Shortstop has been his primary position throughout his pro career, though Rondon hasn’t graded out well in an admittedly tiny sample of 217 MLB frames at the position. His marks at second base and third base are better.
Rondon gives the Cardinals some infield depth after the club decided to decline second baseman Kolten Wong’s $12.5MM club option back in November. Even if he were to make the roster, Rondon would presumably serve as a bench piece, with Tommy Edman slotting in as the primary second baseman and Matt Carpenter getting a chance to rebound at the hot corner. The Cards currently have Edmundo Sosa and Elehuris Montero as additional infield options on the 40-man roster, and St. Louis recently added Max Moroff on a minor league deal with a non-roster invite — the same type of deal received by Rondon.
In parts of four Triple-A seasons, Rondon is a .258/.301/.448 hitter.
]]>While both players are pushing forty, each has clear appeal on the market. Molina is considered a master of his craft behind the dish and remains a palatable hitter, even if he’s unlikely to turn in any more average-or-better seasons with the bat. And Wainwright has racked up 237 1/3 innings of 3.91 ERA pitching dating back to the start of the 2019 season. Both players rank among MLBTR’s top 50 free agents.
It’s no surprise that the Cards maintain strong interest in retaining both players, neither of whom has donned the threads of another MLB franchise. But it’s equally predictable to learn that, per Saxon, the club is letting the market develop rather than rushing to re-ink Molina and Wainwright.
The Cardinals’ payroll predicament left it unlikely to jump to meet the demands of Molina, who’s said to be hoping for a multi-year deal while “seeking at least a one-year, $10 million deal with a 2022 option.” That’d eat up a big chunk of the available spending for the club, though president of baseball operations John Mozeliak did make clear that he’d pursue an alternative backstop if Yadi heads elsewhere.
In the case of Molina, Saxon writes that early talks didn’t gain much traction. Molina’s camp viewed an initial offer from the Cards as an attempt to lowball the veteran.
Wainwright doesn’t seem to have held many substantial discussions at all, with the Cardinals or other organizations. He says that he has yet to receive any firm numbers from suitors. Wainwright’s contract situation is at least more straightforward than that of Molina, as he could slot into just about any rotation and is said to be seeking only a single-season contract.
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