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2021 Arbitration Hearing Results & Post-Deadline Agreements

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January 15 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to officially submit salary figures for the 2021, and by the time the day was done, only 13 players didn’t reach agreement on a contract.  The majority of teams now adhere to the “file or trial” strategy, meaning that no further negotiations on a one-year deal will take place between the arbitration deadline and a hearing with an arbiter, which theoretically puts pressure on players to get a deal done if they are wary about taking their case to a third party.

“File and trial” tactics didn’t stop the Astros and Carlos Correa from agreeing to a one-year deal for just the 2021 season, which is also Correa’s last year before gaining free agent eligibility.  We also saw three multi-year deals reached, all from the greater Los Angeles area — the Dodgers reached two-year deals with Walker Buehler and Austin Barnes, while the Angels inked a two-year pact with Shohei Ohtani.

This left nine unresolved cases that went all the way to a hearing (held over Zoom) between an arbiter, the player, his representative(s), and front office personnel arguing the team’s side.  The teams won five of the nine hearings, continuing the very narrow edge teams have held over players in arb cases in recent years — over the last 99 arbitration hearings, teams hold a 51-48 record over players.

For the full list of every salary for every arbitration-eligible player this offseason, check out the MLB Trade Rumors Arb Tracker.  Sticking to the 13 players with unresolved cases from January 15, here’s the rundown…

Avoided Arbitration, One-Year Contract

Avoided Arbitration, Multi-Year Contract

Arbitration Hearings, Won By Player

Arbitration Hearings, Won By Team

Dodgers Reach 2-Year Arbitration Deal With Walker Buehler

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The Dodgers have inked a new contract with righty Walker Buehler, but it won’t expand upon the team’s control rights. Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links), the deal will resolve Buehler’s arbitration case by guaranteeing him $8MM over the next two seasons.

MLBTR had projected Buehler to earn in the $2.3MM to $3.1MM range for the 2021 campaign. The contract provides a $2.75MM salary along with a $3.25MM rate of pay for 2022. That latter number is obviously light, which is why Buehler will also enjoy a $2MM signing bonus.

The Dodgers gain cost certainty and avoid a hearing with a critical young player. In exchange for sacrificing some contractual upside, Buehler will lock in some serious career earnings and gain some long-term protection from injury.

Buehler will also retain a chance to boost his earnings through escalator provisions. Per Rosenthal, the deal calls for Buehler to earn an additional $500K upon reaching each of six games started thresholds (14, 16, 18, 20, 24, 28). Cy Young voting outcomes can also bump the payday: $1.125MM for a win or $625K for a top-three finish.

The 26-year-old Buehler reached arbitration eligibility as a Super Two player. He’ll have two more arb-eligible campaigns to go after this deal runs out. The sky is the limit on his earning power for those seasons and beyond. Through 365 2/3 career innings to date, Buehler owns a 3.15 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate.

Dodgers Planning To Start Walker Buehler In Game 3

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The Dodgers are planning to start Walker Buehler in Game 3 of the World Series on Friday, manager Dave Roberts informed reporters (including Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times). The 26-year-old last pitched on Saturday, so he’ll be on an extra day of rest when he next takes the ball. He’ll likely be opposed by Rays’ righty Charlie Morton.

A Game 3 start would also position the L.A. ace to pitch on regular rest in a potential Game 7. Buehler has been lights-out so far this postseason, allowing just four runs in 19 innings. In his most recent start, he helped the Dodgers stave off elimination by blanking the Braves across six frames.

More immediately, though, that leaves the NL champions searching for options on Wednesday. Clayton Kershaw will start Game 1 tomorrow, but the Game 2 pitching outlook is murkier. Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urías and Dustin May each picked up starts during the NLCS, but all three were pressed into action in Game 7 against Atlanta. Presumably, one of that trio will return on two days’ rest to take the ball Wednesday, but it’s unlikely any would be able to work particularly deep into that game.

Dodgers Plan To Start Walker Buehler In Game 6 Of NLCS

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The Dodgers, down 3-1 to the underdog Braves in the NLCS, are facing elimination heading into Game 5 on Friday. If the Dodgers do force a Game 6, though, they’ll use right-hander Walker Buehler as their starter, J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group was among those to report.

Los Angeles has already turned to Buehler once in its series against Atlanta, which beat him in Game 1 by a 5-1 score. That wasn’t necessarily Buehler’s fault, though, as he turned in five innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts, five walks and three hits allowed. He has generally been effective in this year’s playoffs, evidenced by a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings, and is coming off a regular season in which he registered a 3.44 ERA/4.36 FIP with 10.31 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 over eight starts and 36 2/3 frames.

Of course, the Buehler news will prove to be moot if the Dodgers don’t extend the series Friday. They’re turning to fellow young gun Dustin May in Game 5, while the Braves will rely on their bullpen as they try to close out the series.

Dodgers Notes: Buehler, Pitching Staff, Rios

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts spoke with reporters (including Ken Gurnick of MLB.com and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times) this evening. Roberts rounded up the team’s thinking as they approach their upcoming NL Championship Series matchup with the Braves.

Walker Buehler will get the start in Game 1, as he did in the NL Division Series opener with the Padres. Despite being nagged by a blister toward the end of the regular season, Buehler managed 95 pitches against San Diego. He should be capable of shouldering a similar workload tomorrow evening, Roberts said. Nevertheless, Los Angeles is considering adding a fifteenth pitcher to the roster. This year’s Championship Series carry the possibility of playing seven games in a seven day span, so the Dodgers are understandably looking into lengthening the pitching staff.

Whether the Dodgers add an extra pitcher could also depend upon the health status of designated hitter Edwin Ríos. The 26-year-old has mashed in limited MLB playing time over the past couple seasons but was left off the Division Series roster due to a groin issue. Ríos has progressed to running and taking live plate appearances, per Roberts, giving him a shot at making the NLCS roster. If Ríos does return, he’d likely be limited to pinch hitting, the skipper added.

Dodgers Updates: Starters, Urías, Ríos

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts spoke to a number of reporters today, including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Roberts addressed a number of issues heading into their NLCS match-up with the Braves. First and foremost, as with the two rounds before, Walker Buehler will start game one, and Clayton Kershaw will start game two. Anything beyond that is too early to call.

Julio Urías was a key contributor for the Dodgers against the Padres, and according to Roberts, he will continue to see “meaningful innings,” per MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick (via Twitter). Urías’ role has changed year-to-year as health and performance have allowed, but come playoff time he tends to – like Kenta Maeda before him – transition into a key bullpen weapon for Roberts. His outings have lengthened this postseason, however, as he’s thrown a total of 8 innings over 2 appearances with a full week of rest between them. In this unprecedented 7-game series in 7 days, Urías could be asked to fill any number of roles.

The same can be said for Dustin May, who managed to both start a game and pitch out of the bullpen in their 3-game NLDS sweep of the Padres. Though he totaled just 3 innings – likely less volume than they could have gotten from him had his usage been limited to a single start – spreading out his outings allowed Roberts to “maximize his impact on multiple games,” per Plunkett. Of course, Roberts was able to follow up May’s 1-inning “opener” outing in game three with Urías for five innings, a luxury he may or may not have in a longer series.

In all likelihood, others on the staff are going to have to provide some length. Tony Gonsolin would have started a game four against San Diego, and he threw a simulated game today. That probably lines him up again for a potential game four or five. He could also come out of the bullpen, of course, as he has on occasion the last two seasons. Roberts and others aren’t just hiding the ball when they say pitcher usage depends on the outcomes of the first couple of games – it really depends on the outcomes of the first couple of games.

On the other side of the ball, Edwin Ríos is about 75% healthy, per Plunkett. He’s a game-time decision, per say, for the NLCS. He was left off of the NLDS because of a groin injury, and if there’s any doubt about his recovery, the Dodgers are likely to be prudent and either go with Gavin Lux again or add another arm to their 14-man staff. Ríos at his best provides a power bat off the bench (or at designated hitter), which could still be useful even if he’s not healthy enough to play the field. While they’re not likely to plan it this way, if there’s any team that has the versatility and depth to carry a single-use bat, it’s the Dodgers.

Dodgers To Start Buehler, Kershaw In First Two NLDS Games

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is sticking with a familiar formula for his playoff rotation, telling reporters (including Jack Harris and Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) that Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw will start the first two games of the team’s NLDS matchup with the Padres.

Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May are on tap to start Games 3, 4, and 5, though the three pitchers wouldn’t necessarily be deployed in that order.  As always, the Dodgers will be flexible with their pitching arrangement during the postseason.  “There might be a situation where those guys [Urias, Gonsolin, May] are available in any of the preceding games as a side day to then make a start,” Roberts said.

It also isn’t out of the question that Buehler returns on short rest to pitch in a possible Game 5, though the first step for the Dodgers is making sure that Buehler can get through as much of Game 1 as possible.  Two separate trips to the injured list due to a blister problem limited Buehler to just 11 2/3 innings after August 21, and he tossed only four innings (73 pitches) in Game 1 of the Dodgers’ wild card series with the Brewers.

Whether Buehler could pitch longer against the Padres is still up in the air, as Roberts said he will “keep an eye on him each inning….I can’t say it’s scripted or when we’re going to deploy our guys in the pen.”  The final five innings of the Game 1 victory over Milwaukee were handled by Urias (three innings), and then an inning each from Blake Treinen and Kenley Jansen, with the reliever trio holding the Brewers scoreless.

Jansen’s outing wasn’t without some shakiness, however, which left Roberts saying that Jansen is still the team’s closer, but no longer the automatic option in save situations.  “There are still going to be times that I might need him in a different inning, and he’s on-board with whatever to help us win baseball games.  It’s a title, but I think that in practice, there are certain innings and certain parts of the lineup that I think he’s the best option.”  While Jansen has a 1.97 ERA over 50 1/3 career postseason innings, he also has a few infamous meltdowns on his resume — over his last eight World Series appearances, Jansen has a loss and is only 1-for-4 in save chances.

Though the L.A. pitching staff is well rested after their two-game sweep of the Brew Crew, the Dodgers will still add some more depth, as Roberts intimated that he will add an extra pitcher to the NLDS roster.  Los Angeles deployed 15 position players and 13 pitchers on its wild card series roster, but one of those position players will be left out of the NLDS in favor of another arm, likely right-hander Dylan Floro.

NL Injury Notes: Molina, Gamel, Buehler, Gray

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X-rays were negative on Yadier Molina’s left wrist after the catcher was hit by a pitch during the seventh inning of the Cardinals’ 5-4 win over the Pirates last night.  Molina was behind the plate for the bottom half of the seventh before being replaced by pinch-hitter Matt Wieters in the top of the eighth.  Cards manager Mike Shildt told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters that Molina “got hit in the same spot, pretty much” that Ryan Braun also made contact with Molina’s wrist earlier this week on a swing that drew a catcher’s interference call on Molina.

It isn’t yet known if Molina will require any time off, though missing any games will be a blow to a Cardinals team that needs all hands on deck as it tries to lock up a playoff spot.  Molina has hit .256/.296/.342 over 126 PA this season and spent three weeks on the injured list after a positive COVID-19 test.

More injury notes from around the National League…

  • The Brewers placed Ben Gamel on the 10-day IL due to a left quad strain, so the outfielder’s 2020 season is over.  Lorenzo Cain’s decision to opt out of the 2020 campaign left Gamel with a larger workload, and he assumed regular duty between center field and right field for much of the season.  The result was a .237/.315/.404 slash line and three home runs over 127 PA, working out to a 91 OPS+ and 92 wRC+.  It wasn’t a bad showing for a player who is probably best suited for fourth outfielder duty, though it remains to be seen if Gamel has done enough for the Brewers to exercise their $2.55MM club option on his services for the 2021 season.
  • Walker Buehler threw a 90-pitch simulated game yesterday and is slated to be activated off the 10-day IL for a Thursday start.  (MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick was among those to report the news.)  Buehler has made two trips to the injured list due to blister problems, resulting in just seven innings pitched since August 21.  Thursday’s start against the Athletics will therefore serve as an opportunity for Buehler to warm up prior to the Dodgers’ postseason run.  Buehler is still expected to be a big factor for Los Angeles during the playoffs, though he hasn’t quite matched his 2019 form in this shortened season.  Thanks in large part to a 1.9 HR/9, Buehler has a 3.86 ERA over 32 2/3 innings in 2020, though with a 3.60 K/BB rate, 9.9 K/9, and generally above-average Statcast numbers.
  • Sonny Gray is tentatively scheduled to return during the Reds’ upcoming series with the Brewers, perhaps as early as Tuesday.  However, Reds manager David Bell told John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer and other reporters that no “final, final call” will be made until the team sees how Gray is feeling following a side session on Saturday.  Gray has been on the injured list (retroactively) since September 11 due to a back strain, and his return would be a major boost as the Reds chase a postseason berth.

Dodgers Place Walker Buehler On 10-Day Injured List

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The Dodgers have placed starter Walker Buehler on the 10-day injured list with a blister and activated reliever Joe Kelly, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com tweets.

This is the second blister-related IL placement in recent weeks for Buehler, whom they first placed on the shelf Aug. 27. The right-hander made a quick return with five shutout innings in a win over the Diamondbacks on Sept. 2, but Buehler gave up five runs (two earned) to the D-backs in 2 2/3 frames on Tuesday. The Dodgers still managed to win that game, though, and at 32-12, they look like shoo-ins to capture the National League’s top seed as the playoffs approach.

Considering where the Dodgers are in the standings, it makes sense for the team to be cautious with Buehler – a key part of a rotation that has been among the league’s best in 2020. While Buehler hasn’t revisited his 2018-19 form, he, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and Julio Urias have still made up a formidable group.

As for Kelly, he’s back after going to the IL on Aug. 10 with right shoulder inflammation. Kelly won’t be available to pitch immediately, though, as he’ll first have to serve a five-game suspension stemming from a dustup with the Astros on July 28.

Dodgers To Activate Alex Wood; Walker Buehler To Return Wednesday

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The Dodgers will activate left-hander Alex Wood from the injured list Tuesday, manager Dave Roberts told Ken Gurnick of MLB.com and other reporters. Wood will work from the bullpen upon his return. Meanwhile, righty Walker Buehler will come off the IL on Wednesday, per Roberts. Buehler has been out for a little over a week with a blister.

Wood’s in his second stint with the Dodgers, who signed him to a one-year, $4MM contract last winter after an injury-plagued season with Cincinnati. Unfortunately, this has been yet another limited year for the oft-injured Wood, who made his lone start/appearance of the season July 25 before landing on the IL with shoulder inflammation.

When healthy, the 29-year-old Wood has been highly effective in the majors, where he has pitched to a 3.42 ERA/3.50 FIP with 8.25 K/9, 2.58 BB/9 and a 49.1 percent groundball rate in 842 innings. While most of Wood’s experience has come as a starter, he has amassed 43 appearances in relief. He’ll return to that role for a World Series hopeful LA team that dealt swingman Ross Stripling to the Blue Jays on Monday, leaving the Dodgers with Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and Julio Urias as their starting five.

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