In today's notes column for The Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo writes about the Orioles' rebuilding process, which included renovations to the team's Spring Training and minor league facilities. "There was no magic formula," said president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail. "We're not doing anything that hasn't been done before. The Orioles I grew up with did it with scouting and player development, and we're doing it the same way now."
Here are the rest of Cafardo's rumors…
- Both Yankees and Red Sox executives spoke out against revenue sharing last week, but no one wants a salary cap and the player's union won't allow one anyway.
- The early signs are good for Jake Peavy, who is coming back from a detached lat muscle. One scout called Peavy "trade bait for sure" if he's healthy and the White Sox slip out of contention. "Though teams may come after Mark [Buehrle] first."
- John Boggs, agent for Adrian Gonzalez, has not talked to the Red Sox about an extension since December, though something may be set up soon. Boggs will not be in Florida until the third week of March.
- The Brewers don't want to bring in someone like Bengie Molina in the wake of Jonathan Lucroy's broken finger because they know their young backstop will be back in a few weeks.
- When the Red Sox drew the line at four years and $52MM for Adrian Beltre, one of their fears was his potential to get hurt given his all-out approach. Beltre suffered a calf strain recently and may be out for up to a month.
Guess the Redsox where right about not signing Beltre….
The decision is looking good so far!
But honestly, people are saying that Gonzalez and Crawford isn’t an improvement over Beltre and Martinez…ok, maybe not an improvement over the 2010 Beltre, but what are the odds that Beltre will be able to replicate his 2010 season? Martinez is 31 and already a defensive liability…imagine his defense at 35. On the other hand, Gonzalez and Crawford have been consistent in the past years, and both are in the late 20s, and both are good/great defenders.
Even if it is a replacement, (its not). The Red Sox will have a healthy Youk, Pedey, Ells, Cameron and more. But… Crawford-Gonzales> Beltre-Martinez……… Jealous people will try to reject that, but its obvious.
these guys are just talking about 2011 v. 2010. given what martinez and beltre contributed in 2010, gonzo and crawford are approximately equally valuable for 2011. it’s the rest of the team being healthy as you said that makes them much better this year
going forward, beyond 2011, they are waaaay better off with crawford and gonzalez. that’s what the exciting part is
Beltre will be hard to replace (at least as well as he did last year). But A-Gone is a great player, and he should match his production if he can adjust to the AL. Downgrading from V-Mart to Saltalamacchia is big, but the freak injuries shouldn’t hit the outfield, and I can’t imagine Lackey and Beckett being that bad again. Overall, I don’t think you can really say they didn’t improve.
Lol at A-gone matching production of Beltre. Wow, you forgot Crawford? Big Upgrade. How about the bullpen, way better. They improved a lot.
I was comparing the player that replaced Beltre to Beltre. I obviously factored Crawford in when I said they’re improved.
But are you saying all you think A-gone will do is match Beltre’s production?
Beltre had an INCREDIBLE season last year. He posted 7.1 WAR. What is the best WAR A-Gone has ever produced? 6.5. I’m not saying that Beltre will be better this year, but to match the production from last year would take a special season.
But your just looking at WAR. Also your looking at one season, not a spread of 5 seasons. Anyone can have a breakout season, than stink again.
See Beltre 2004
My point is matching his production from that of Beltre’s last year. Beltre was great last year. Again, Beltre may not be the better player. But to expect A-Gone to replace that production is a little optimistic. He may, but he will have to do it with great offense, as he will not be able to make up for the special D of Beltre.
And please don’t say he sucked. He was not a superstar in his time in Seattle, but he was still a solid player who was worth every penny he was paid.
I never said he sucked. Because he didn’t suck. He was paid by the Mariners to produce something like his 2004 season. Which he never did again. But he is a good player.
You said everyone can have a breakout year, than stink again. And then you mention Beltre’s 2004. It sees to me that you were using Beltre as an example of a guy who had a breakout than stunk, no? Also $12 million a year (which is what he got) is not how one pays a guy if they expect the 2004 season (which would be dumb to expect). If you expect that every year, you’re expecting as good as A-Rod in his prime. They obviously put room for regression in the salary.
No, I said they would pay him to produce something like 2004, which he didn’t. Also were do you get 7.1 war? Baseball reference says 6.1
Fangraphs has 7, I tend to prefer their system (seems to put more stock into Defense). And they paid him around $12 Million in average salary, which is not expecting his 2004 form. If anyone expect that, they’d be paying him around $23 million minimum.
How many times do I have to say, no one was expecting him to post his 2004 numbers again.
But you just said “I said they would pay him to produce something like 2004” isn’t that expecting him to produce like 2004? You just absolutely contradicted yourself.
Go to a dictionary and search the word “Something”. Come back later, and tell me what you found.
“something like” would refer to producing near that year’s production. $12 Million called for about a third of that production, at least in terms of WAR. (1 WAR= $5 million, Beltre posted around 10 WAR in 2004).
no doubt beltre isn’t a perennial 7 WAR guy, so you’re right about that. but it is what he gave the 2010 club. so in terms of projecting how much better they’ll be this year, that’s the version of beltre you have to use
in terms of whether or not he should have been signed? you’re right that you definitely don’t use 7 WAR as the baseline. it was a good no-sign by boston
I 100% agree to that, great post.
Wait…according to baseball-reference, Beltre posted 6.1 WAR while Gonzalez posted 6.3 WAR.
But since I’m not very familiar with how WAR is calculated…I won’t go further with this.
Fangraphs has him at 7.1. I’m pretty sure Fangraphs likes his defense a lot more. I tend to side with Fangraphs, but that’s just personal preference.
you’re welcome to use whatever you’d like, but sean smith’s (b-r) WAR weights defense less heavily and uses a significantly less precise measure of defense (Total Zone) than fangraphs (UZR). smith uses TZ because it can be determined for every player in history, while UZR data only goes back to 2002
beltre posted a +4 TZ rating last year, and +11.8 UZR
gonzalez posted a +7 TZ rating last year, and +1.1 UZR
you have to remember that beltre produced a .390 wOBA with A+ defense at third base last year. that’s valuable as hell
projecting gonzalez at better than 7 WAR is actually a bit outlandish. he could do it, but shouldn’t be expected to
Exactly. A-Gone is a great player. But Beltre had a special year last year. I don’t get why it’s bad to say Gonzales shouldn’t be expected to post 7 WAR? He obviously could, but that would take the best year of his career.
I know WAR is a good stat. But its saying Wins Above Replacement. Its not like one player wins a baseball game. Its a team, so if one player gets replaced, it “shouldn’t” change a lot.
Isn’t Youkillis replacing Beltre at 3b? I don’t see how that’s a drop off. AGon is replacing Youk, which isn’t a drop off. Crawford is replacing…. Cameron? Yeah, Cameron was hurt last year but he’d be starting this year so Crawford is replacing him, that’s an improvement. Overall the Red Sox got better.
Well if Youk is replacing Beltre, and A-Gone is replacing Youk, it’s basically replacing Beltre with Gonzales, at least in terms of production lost/gained.
you can’t count crawford replacing cameron without counting saltalamacchia replacing martinez
We’ll see how you feel about Crawford in a couple years at his current salary, Gonzalez will hold good value for some time.
I’ll feel better than I would feel if it was Beltre…or Martinez.
A couple years? You mean when he’s 31? Reasonable people do expect his speed to break down some in the later part of his contract, but they usually assume it will be closer to 34 not when he’s 31. Unless of course you are implying that he isn’t worth the money to begin with and then we have a whole separate issue.
Because they got A-Gone? That’s a valid reason. But because he strained his calf? That’s a minor injury, and probably not much to worry about
Beltre is going to play GG caliber defense regardless at 3B for a few years for texas, that is a given and Youk probably just average. other than that? Boston comes out winner in every other aspect of the switch from Youk to beltre swap at 3B. Youk gets on base far more and you know he is not going to have an up and down year with the bat.
Youk will also do better, if he is not injured a lot. Same with Pedey and Ells.
they lose 7 WAR from 3rd base and replace it with, hopefully around 5 WAR from youk. it all depends on how he holds up defensively
at first, it’s pretty much a wash. adrian is a fantastic hitter and a good 1st baseman, but so was youkilis
the outfield is a massive upgrade, but the catching situation could be a pretty heavy downgradefrom martinez’s 4 WAR
ultimately the best things the red sox have going for them is (presumably) full healthy seasons from the group of starts injured last year and a much improved bullpen
That is based on what at 3B? Just last season? Have to hope that Beltre can maintain the tremendous season he had if it is and I am thinking he ill regress some, but not nearly as much as the Beltre nay sayers are talking about.
Granted massive improvement with the OF and only mentioned 3B cause was the closest position the team upgraded with Youk over Beltre and no need really to rate Youk/Gonzo with Youk just switching positions.
Position * 2010 WAR * 2011 WAR
3B * 7.1 * 4 – 6
1B * 4.2 * 6
LF * 1.5 * 5 – 6
C * 4.1 * 1 – 2
OVR * 17 * 16-19
as has been said, it’s the
can’t edit comments anymore either. tricksy
as has been said, it’s the full seasons this year from injured stars last year that will make the biggest difference*
Don’t discount the possibility of Youk playing GG caliber D at 3rd. It is his natural position after all and word is he is very happy to be back there.
If the White Sox do indeed fall out of contention (which I doubt, though I see why some people could imagine), KW better be doing everything he can to upgrade the farm system. If Peavy can be traded (he’d obviously have to do a lot to prove he can be traded), the money coming off the books would be huge, and hopefully the Sox could regain a respectable farm system.
I think revenue sharing is a good idea, but they need a salary floor for it to work properly. Teams shouldn’t be able to pocket the money.
And why would the players union ever be against a salary floor, it would drive up players salary slightly.
Agree 100%. The Salary Floor is absolutely necessary. While I would like a salary cap, I doubt it could happen, but I think MLB really needs to make some serious changes in the next CBA
I’d like to see them implement the floor first, and see what takes effect there, then it would show if a salary cap is needed.
I am not sure if would solve that much, unlike other sports, a team can put money in places besides player salary, teams like the Yankees will just put more money into minor league development and international scouting. Which might make it even worse, because the Yankees may not end up with a team like this year, with a lot of question marks, they will always have a fresh young team full of talent. All other sports the draft and free agency are the only ways to add players, baseball has international players, and there is much more player development after the draft.
I say, implement a salary floor, revamp revenue sharing, and make it so the mlb average team salary goes up so teams can compete with the Red Sox and Yankees for high ticket free agents, which will spread them out and create more parity.
There’s only so much you can spend on scouting before you’re wasting it. Though the Yanks may have a slight advantage there, I think it would not be a great difference.