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Orioles President Discusses Payroll, Offseason Targets

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The Orioles have made a few moves this offseason but are still looking for a big rotation upgrade and an impact bat. President of baseball operations Mike Elias spoke to the media today about the club’s offseason and was asked if the O’s had enough spending capacity to address both needs via free agency. “Yes, I think so,” Elias said, per Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun. “I mean, you look at our payroll as it stands right now, and it’s still well below where we went last year.”

Baltimore went into 2025 with an Opening Day payroll of $165MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Thanks to some midseason trades and some guys reaching free agency at season’s end, next year’s payroll isn’t close to that number. As of today, their 2026 club is slated to cost about $118MM, per RosterResource. Even if there’s no bump in payroll coming, that’s more than $45MM in wiggle room.

Elias candidly admitted last month that a front-of-rotation starter and a reliever with closing experience were on the to-do list. The latter seems to be ticked off the list, at least for now. The O’s signed Ryan Helsley earlier this month. Today, Elias said the club is still looking for an external reliever but also might want to leave room open for some of their incumbent arms, per Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun.

That still leaves the rotation as an item to be crossed off. Adding an impact bat was also on the list. The O’s acquired Taylor Ward from the Angels last month but Elias admitted in the wake of that deal that bolstering the lineup was still on the agenda.

Elias said today that the club is willing to be open-minded about the positional fit of the hitter they look to add, per Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner. “If the player is good enough, we can figure out ways to accommodate them, so we have a lot of conversations going on, mostly in free agency, but also in some trades, on guys we view as impact bats.”

Just about anywhere the O’s add to their position player group, there will be domino effects. They don’t have a pure designated hitter but there are several guys who would currently project to spend time there. The catching duo is currently Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo, so the DH spot could be used to have both of them in the lineup regularly. In the outfield, they have Ward, Colton Cowser, Dylan Beavers, Tyler O’Neill and others in the mix. Given O’Neill’s injury history, it would make sense for him to get some DH time. At first base, they have both Coby Mayo and Ryan Mountcastle in the mix, so the DH spot would be needed if the O’s want both of those guys getting at-bats. The rest of the infield includes Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg.

Adding just about any impact hitter would knock someone down the pecking order. If the O’s successfully sign a notable free agent bat, perhaps that will push someone currently on the roster to the trading block. In recent weeks, the O’s have been connected to notable free agents like corner outfielder Kyle Tucker, designated hitter Kyle Schwarber and first baseman Pete Alonso. On the starting pitching side of things, the O’s have been connected to names like Tatsuya Imai, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, Michael King and Zac Gallen.

MLBTR predicted Tucker to earn a guarantee of $400MM over 11 years. That’s an average annual value of $36.36MM, which would eat up most of Baltimore’s remaining spending capacity, assuming they are willing to run a similar payroll in 2026. With the others, it’s somewhat possible to imagine two of them fitting into the club’s remaining payroll space. Valdez was projected for a $30MM AAV, Alonso $27.5MM, Schwarber $27MM, Imai $25MM, Suarez $23MM and then King and Gallen both at $20MM.

Theoretically, if the O’s do add two names from that list, they could also then save money via the trade market. For instance, Mountcastle is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.8MM next year. Or perhaps there’s a path where younger and cheaper players are traded for a more notable return, which lessens the need to do everything via free agency. Elias has yet to sign a starting pitcher to a multi-year deal but there have been offers, including putting a four-year pact on the table for Corbin Burnes.

If they do go the free agent route, Elias has already said they are willing to sign guys who rejected qualifying offers. As a revenue-sharing recipient, the O’s would have to forfeit their third-highest selection in next year’s draft to sign a guy who rejected a QO. Of the aforementioned names, that would apply to Tucker, Schwarber, Valdez, Suarez, Gallen and King. Alonso wasn’t eligible to receive a QO because he got one a year ago. Imai is coming over from Japan, so the QO situation doesn’t apply, but whoever signs him would have to pay a posting fee to his NPB club.

Elias also provided one other note about the club’s plans, noting that they hope to develop Jeremiah Jackson in a utility role, per Weyrich. Jackson debuted in 2025 and hit well, with a .276/.328/.447 line, though that was buoyed by a .365 batting average on balls in play. He played second base, third base and right field. In the minors, he also has experience at shortstop and the other two outfield slots.

Photo courtesy of Daniel Kucin Jr., Imagn Images

Pete Alonso Meeting With Red Sox, Orioles At Winter Meetings

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Free agent first baseman Pete Alonso is attending the Winter Meetings and will have in-person sit-downs with the Red Sox and Orioles, among other interested clubs, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Both the Red Sox and the O’s have already been at least loosely linked to the Polar Bear, but it’s nevertheless notable that Alonso is both attending the event himself — it’s located within driving distance of his Florida home — and that both are interested enough to meet with the player directly. Presumably, Alonso will be meeting with other clubs this week as well.

Boston has long stood as a logical fit. Triston Casas missed almost the entire 2025 season due to a knee injury. Replacements Romy Gonzalez, Abraham Toro and Nathaniel Lowe held their own, but Toro (outrighted, elected free agency) and Lowe (designated for assignment, non-tendered) are no longer with the club. The vast majority of Gonzalez’s production came against left-handed pitching. He was a below-average hitter versus righties — albeit not by that much, but with the help of a BABIP north of .370.

Casas is hoping to be ready for the beginning of the season, but chief baseball officer Craig Breslow sidestepped when asked after the season whether it was fair to expect Casas to be his first baseman in 2026. If the Red Sox want to go cheaper at the position, they could look at a Casas/Gonzalez platoon. But there’s been speculation about trading Casas going back more than a year now, and Gonzalez — who’s played every position on the diamond other than catcher — makes for a fine utility piece even if the Sox go with more of an everyday option at first. Alonso is also open to some DH work, though that’d come into play more if Boston could finally find a taker for what’s left of Masataka Yoshida’s ill-fated five-year contract.

The Red Sox already have about $178MM of payroll obligations for the upcoming season, per RosterResource, and their luxury-tax obligations total more than $224MM (putting about around $23MM shy of the first-tier threshold). Signing Alonso would very likely put Boston over that line, though trades of other veterans (e.g. Yoshida, Jarren Duran) could bring that number back down to an extent.

The Orioles are a less-obvious fit, at least at first glance. Baltimore is dead-set on adding prominent help to the starting rotation and is deep in young position players. However, Coby Mayo is the heir-apparent at first base and has yet to prove that he can hit major league pitching on a consistent basis. Signing Alonso could free the Orioles to more seriously explore trading some of its crop of young bats to bring in an arm via the trade market.

That’s a rather circuitous route to improving the rotation, but if the Orioles are more comfortable betting on Alonso’s bat holding up over the long run than they are a prominent pitcher’s elbow/shoulder, it’d be a sensible enough course of action. To date, the O’s seem to be casting a wide net. They’ve been linked to Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Tatsuya Imai and Michael King, to name a few. They’re also hoping to bring in a big bat to fill out the offense — even after acquiring Taylor Ward and his 36 home runs in last month’s trade with the Angels.

Payroll-wise, there’s basically nothing that should be off limits for Baltimore this winter. Outfielder Tyler O’Neill, young catcher Samuel Basallo and newly signed closer Ryan Helsley are the only players guaranteed anything beyond the current season. The 2027 season is a player option for Helsley, however, and Basallo’s extension carries an $8.375MM annual value. His salary doesn’t climb beyond $8MM until 2031.

Alonso enjoyed a much stronger 2025 season than he did in 2024, boosting his batting line from .240/.329/.459 (121 wRC+) to a stout .272/.347/.524 line (141 wRC+). He clubbed 38 homers, lopped two percentage points off his strikeout rate (down to a roughly league-average 22.8%) and saw massive bumps in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate. He also has the benefit of hitting free agency without a qualifying offer this time around, given that he rejected a QO following the 2024 season and players can only receive a QO once in their careers under the system’s current rules.

Cubs, Giants, Angels, Tigers Among Teams Interested In Zac Gallen

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TODAY: Both The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale expanded on Feinsand’s link between Gallen and the Cubs, writing that Chicago indeed has interest in the free agent.  Giving up draft compensation to sign Gallen isn’t a deal-breaker for the team, Mooney notes, as the Cubs have shown interest in other players (i.e. Ranger Suarez, Michael King) who rejected qualifying offers.

DECEMBER 5: Right-hander Zac Gallen didn’t have the platform season he envisioned heading into free agency, but the former Cy Young finalist and All-Star nevertheless turned down a qualifying offer from the D-backs and hit the open market last month. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Giants have had conversations with Gallen’s camp (video link). MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adds the Angels and Tigers to the list of teams with interest in Gallen. He also indicates that the Orioles, Cubs and Braves have at least looked into Gallen. Meanwhile, John Gambadoro of 98.7 Arizona Sports recently suggested a D-backs reunion was unlikely.

Gallen, who turned 30 in August, struggled through four brutal months to begin the 2025 season but ended with a flourish. Through the time of the trade deadline, the right-hander was lugging a 5.60 ERA toward the finish line. That ugly ERA came despite roughly average strikeout and walk rates (22.1% and 8.6%, respectively). He was getting hammered by the long ball, yielding 23 homers in his first 127 frames of the season (1.63 HR/9).

From August onward, Gallen looked more like his typical self. His strikeout rate dipped two percentage points, to a below-average 20.3%, but his walk rate improved to 7.1%. Most importantly, he cut back on the home runs. Gallen yielded just eight round-trippers in his final 65 innings — a rate of 1.11 per nine innings, which falls far more closely in line with his career mark (1.05).

Even with a 3.32 earned run average over his final 11 starts, Gallen closed out the year with an unsightly 4.83 ERA overall. It’s not a strong mark, but Gallen and Boras are surely hoping that track record and impeccable durability will carry his market. Gallen started 33 games in 2025 and is tied with Jose Berrios for the fourth-most starts in MLB (126) dating back to 2022. His 734 innings rank third in the sport during that time, trailing only Logan Webb and Framber Valdez. Gallen has only been on the major league injured list three times in his career — a pair of short stints due to hamstring strains in 2024 and 2021 and a month-long IL stay for a mild elbow sprain back in ’21.

The Giants are a sensible fit. They’re looking for rotation help but not keen on handing out the type of six- and seven-year deals we’ll see for many of the market’s top names. Giants brass has seen him more than most pitchers over the years, as an ultra-durable stalwart in a division rival’s rotation. President of baseball operations Buster Posey even personally faced Gallen eight times, going 2-for-6 with a pair of walks and a home run.

San Francisco has the aforementioned Webb atop the rotation and signed through 2028. No. 2 starter Robbie Ray is signed only through the 2026 season. Right-hander Landen Roupp positioned himself for a rotation spot with a nice showing through 22 starts in his age-26 season. Other candidates at the moment include Hayden Birdsong, Carson Whisenhunt, Blade Tidwell, Kai-Wei Teng, Trevor McDonald and Carson Seymour. It’s a fine collection of depth, but there’s also plenty of uncertainty (hence the focus on rotation upgrades).

Gallen wouldn’t need to be the Giants’ ace but would give them a reliable source of innings and a big track record on which to dream. The Giants’ projected payroll, per RosterResource, is a bit under $169MM. That’s right about the same level at which they opened the 2025 season, but Giants ownership has topped $200MM payrolls in the past — even as recently as 2024. There’s room to add to the budget.

The Angels’ projected payroll is in a near-identical spot to that of the Giants, but the Angels trotted out a $203MM Opening Day mark just this past season. Mike Trout and Yusei Kikuchi are the only players signed beyond the 2026 season, and only Trout is signed beyond 2027.

In Anaheim, Gallen would join a rotation currently fronted by Kikuchi and Jose Soriano. Beyond that duo, the Angels are likely to give former top prospect Reid Detmers, who had a strong season in the bullpen in ’25, another look in the rotation next season. They’ve also acquired Grayson Rodriguez from the Orioles and signed Alek Manoah to a one-year deal this winter. Former top prospect Caden Dana headlines the depth options — a group also including Mitch Farris, Sam Aldegheri, Walbert Urena, Jack Kochanowicz and prospect George Klassen, who has not yet been added to the 40-man roster. There are some talented arms in the mix, but as with the Giants, the Halos simply lack stability behind a pair of generally established veterans atop the rotation.

Over in Detroit, the Tigers have some more stability but less depth. Having the best pitcher on the planet on the roster is a nice start, of course, and the Tigers can follow Tarik Skubal with Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Reese Olson and sophomore Troy Melton. Adding Gallen would push Melton to the top depth option, presumably in Triple-A, alongside Keider Montero, Sawyer Gipson-Long, Ty Madden and prospect Jaden Hamm (not yet on the 40-man roster).

The Tigers have one of the cleanest long-term payroll sheets of any club in MLB. Javier Baez’s six-year contract runs through 2027. He and Colt Keith — playing on a six-year, $28.6425MM extension — are the only two players guaranteed anything beyond the 2026 season. Adding Gallen would give the Tigers some 2026 stability and protect them in the event that Skubal, Flaherty and/or Mize all depart in free agency next winter.

The other clubs listed by Feinsand are all known to be in the market for rotation help, too, so none of the bunch is particularly surprising. It’d be out of character for the Braves to sign Gallen, unless his market collapses and he signs a short-term pillow deal (either one year or two years with an opt-out). Atlanta hasn’t given more than $30MM to a free agent starting pitcher under president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos. The Orioles are likely searching for ceiling over stability, so unless they’re confident they can get Gallen back to his 2022-23 form, he’s probably not Plan A or B in Baltimore. The Cubs are already counting on one bounceback from a notable starter (Shota Imanaga), though Gallen fits the spending profile they’ve pursued in offseasons more than the other names at the top of the market.

Even coming off a down year, Gallen will likely find a multi-year pact. Even if he prefers to bet on himself with a shorter-term deal, he’s precisely the type of former All-Star for whom the Boras Corporation has frequently negotiated two-year deals with opt-out pacts. We predicted a four-year deal for Gallen on our annual ranking of the sport’s Top 50 free agents, believing that the market will value his durability and track record enough to get him paid nicely — albeit not to the extent he’d have enjoyed coming off a more typical season. Gallen will presumably be presented a variety of contract structures, many of which will have opt-out opportunities or convoluted multi-year player and club options alike. The deal he ultimately accepts will hinge on his personal level of risk aversion.

Orioles Designate Ryan Noda For Assignment

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The Orioles announced that first baseman/outfielder Ryan Noda has been designated for assignment.  The club also announced the previously-reported waiver claims of Will Robertson and Drew Romo, and Noda’s DFA clears the final 40-man roster spot Baltimore needed to officially add Robertson and Romo.

Noda also came to Baltimore on a waiver claim last August, as the O’s claimed the 29-year-old away from the White Sox to create some roster depth in the wake of the trade deadline.  Noda ended up appearing in seven big league games in an Orioles uniform, with 14 plate appearances.  Combined with his 45 PA for Chicago, Noda ended up with a .106/.276/.170 slash line to show for his 59 total PA at the MLB level in 2025.

It was a busy year of transactions for Noda, as starting in November 2024, he went from the A’s to the Angels to the Red Sox to the White Sox and finally to the Orioles on a series of waiver claims and (in the case of the move to Boston) a trade.  This is the third time Noda has been DFA’d, but he has neither the required three years of MLB service time or the past outright assignment on his resume to decline an outright if he clears waivers and the Orioles assign him to Triple-A.  That means Noda will remain in Baltimore’s organization if outrighted off the 40-man, though his past history suggests that another waiver claim is certainly possible.

The Athletics selected Noda out of the Dodgers’ organization as a pick in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft, and it looked like a shrewd move for the A’s after Noda hit .229/.364/.406 with 16 home runs over 495 PA during the 2023 season.  This solid rookie performance didn’t carry forward, however, as Noda followed up with only a .137/.255/.211 slash over 111 PA in 2024, and he spent the majority of that season in the minors.

Strong minor league production has kept Noda in the minds of teams looking to add roster depth on the waiver wire, though his Triple-A numbers dropped to .188/.409/.361 and 10 home runs over 291 PA.  Since those plate appearances were split over four different teams in four organizations, it seems possible that the transactional whirlwind played a part in Noda’s dropoff at the plate.  He still maintained his ability to get on base, and Noda is still a player capable of handling first base or either corner outfield slot, plus some center field work in a pinch.

Latest On Michael King’s Market

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Michael King is one of the bigger risk-reward plays in the starting pitching class. He’s arguably a top 10 pitcher in MLB when healthy but is coming off a platform season that was wrecked by a nerve injury in his throwing shoulder. He’s also attached to draft compensation after rejecting a qualifying offer from the Padres.

That hasn’t deterred plenty of teams from expressing interest. King was already known to be a target for the Cubs, Tigers and Yankees, while even the Marlins checked in as a long shot suitor. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and Joel Sherman of The New York Post each write that the Mets are involved. Feinsand adds the Orioles, Angels and incumbent Padres as teams on the periphery of the market. Sherman reports that the Red Sox have also shown interest in the 30-year-old righty.

King converted to the rotation late in the 2023 season as a member of the Yankees. He pitched well enough to stick as a starter after being traded to San Diego as the centerpiece of the Juan Soto deal. King finished seventh in NL Cy Young voting in 2024, pitching to a 2.95 ERA while striking out 201 batters over 31 appearances. He’d pitched even better over the first six weeks of the ’25 campaign. King reeled off 10 starts with a 2.59 earned run average and punching out 28% of opponents before the injury.

Durability is the big question. The shoulder issue wasn’t structural but proved a lot more problematic than initially expected. He wound up missing almost three months and showed signs of rust when he returned late in the season. King gave up 12 runs while tallying all of 17 1/3 innings over five starts in the second half. His velocity was fine but he only managed 12 strikeouts while issuing nine free passes.

King appeared on track for a nine-figure contract amidst his hot start. That’s tougher to envision now, as the 2024 campaign remains the only season in which he has reached even 105 innings. That’s largely because of his usage with the Yankees, but he also missed a couple months in 2021 with a finger injury and suffered a season-ending elbow fracture the following year.

MLBTR predicted King to receive a four-year, $80MM contract. It’s also possible he prefers a two- or three-year deal with an opt-out to get back to free agency next winter. King declined the straight one-year qualifying offer, but a multi-year deal with an out clause would give him a little more security than the QO would have provided. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote this morning that King is willing to sign for a shorter term than the top free agent arms (e.g. Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai, Ranger Suárez). That wouldn’t necessarily rule out a four-year deal, as the best starters are expected to command five or six-year contracts. Dylan Cease already pulled a seven-year guarantee.

The Mets should come away with a mid-rotation or better arm via free agency or trade. They stayed away from the top of the rotation market last winter. That worked out early in the year but collapsed down the stretch. Only the Rockies, Nationals and Angels had a higher second-half ERA from their rotation than the Mets’ 5.31 mark. Nolan McLean looks like a budding frontline starter, but he’s their only pitcher who allowed fewer than 4.20 earned runs per nine after the All-Star Break.

Baltimore, Boston, San Diego and the Angels have all been in the rotation market. The Red Sox should probably focus elsewhere after acquiring Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo in trade. The Angels have landed a pair of starters this offseason as well, but Grayson Rodriguez and Alek Manoah both have significant health questions. They still need a starter and are also in the mix for Zac Gallen. The O’s are involved on Valdez and Suárez; no pitcher seems to be off the table for them. The Padres are unlikely to spend what it’d take to bring King back, though they’ll need multiple rotation adds after also losing Cease to free agency and Yu Darvish to elbow surgery.

Orioles Claim Will Robertson, Drew Romo

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The Orioles have claimed outfielder Will Robertson off waivers from the Pirates, according to Jake Rill of MLB.com. The O’s have also claimed catcher Drew Romo off waivers from the Rockies, according to an announcement from Colorado. There wasn’t any previous indication these players were on the wire but it appears their respective clubs tried to sneak them through waivers in order to open 40-man spots. Baltimore’s 40-man had a vacancy but they will need to open one spot to make these two claims.

Robertson, 28 this month, is a popular bet for a late-bloomer breakout. This is the fourth roster he’s been on in the past six months. A fourth-round pick of the Blue Jays back 2019, he wasn’t really on the prospect radar as he climbed the minor league ladder. He would show some occasional pop but also struck out about 30% of the time, which limited his overall offensive production. He has occasionally played in center field but has mostly been a corner-only guy, meaning he needs to hit to provide value.

He seemed to find another gear in 2025. He put up good numbers in Triple-A to start the year, enough that the Jays called him up to the big leagues in June. He was designated for assignment in July and went to the White Sox in a cash deal. Between the Jays and the Sox, he hit just .129/.173/.143 in the majors, but in a tiny sample of just 75 plate appearances.

In his 354 Triple-A plate appearances between the two clubs, he lowered his strikeout rate to 24.9%, still a high number but a nice drop for him personally. He also drew walks at a strong 13.6% clip and hit 20 home runs. All told, he had a .289/.387/.571 line at Triple-A this year. That production translates to a 148 wRC+, indicating he was 48% above league average at that level.

Despite that strong production, his age and lack of prospect pedigree make him a fringe roster player. The White Sox put Robertson on waivers in October. The Pirates claimed him and held him for a couple of months before trying to pass him through waivers themselves. The Orioles have swooped in to grab him.

His path to playing time in Baltimore isn’t great right now. The Orioles have an outfield mix that consists of Taylor Ward, Tyler O’Neill, Colton Cowser, Dylan Beavers, Jeremiah Jackson, Leody Taveras, Heston Kjerstad, Reed Trimble and others. Robertson still has options, so he can be stashed in Triple-A as depth, but the Orioles often claim players off waivers and then later try to pass them through themselves. If they were to try that with Robertson at a later date and succeed, they could keep him in the system in a non-roster capacity.

Romo, 24, was once a prospect of some note. The Rockies took him 35th overall in 2020. As a switch-hitting catcher who was considered a strong defender, he got a lot of attention from prospect evaluators. Baseball America ranked him #80 in the league back in 2023.

His stock has dropped in the past couple of years, however. He appeared to become prone to chase in 2024. He only walked in 4.3% of his plate appearances in Triple-A that year. His .297/.339/.499 line and 97 wRC+ that year weren’t disastrous but his results were propped up by a .331 batting average on balls in play. Going into 2025, BA ranked him as just the 17th-best prospect in the entire Rockies’ system.

Here in 2025, his results were even worse. He slashed .264/.329/.409 for a 75 wRC+ in Triple-A, despite being aided by a .338 BABIP. He’s also received brief major league looks over the past two seasons but has a dismal .167/.196/.222 line in 56 plate appearances.

The trends aren’t great, which is surely why the Rockies tried to pass him through waivers today. For the O’s, they’re grabbing a guy who is still fairly young and was a Top 100 prospect a couple of years ago. Even if his offense doesn’t improve, he’s a glove-first catcher with options and can therefore be kept in Triple-A as depth. The O’s project to have Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo splitting the catching duties, with Romo and Maverick Handley also on the 40-man.

Photo courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, Imagn Images

Astros, Orioles Among Clubs Interested In Ranger Suárez

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Left-hander Ranger Suárez is one of the top free agent starting pitchers still available. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Astros, Cubs and Orioles are the clubs most likely to pluck him away from the Philadelphia, though the Phillies remain in the mix. Feinsand adds that the Mets and Tigers are also involved in the southpaw’s market. Jeff Passan of ESPN adds that Suárez has long been a target of Houston and Baltimore.

Suárez, 30, has been pretty consistent in terms of his results in recent years. He’s generally been able to combine decent strikeout and walk rates with strong ground ball numbers. However, he also has some question marks since his velocity isn’t huge by modern standards and some injuries have prevented him from being a workhorse.

Over the past four seasons, Suárez has tossed 588 1/3 innings for the Phillies, allowing 3.59 earned runs per nine. He punched out 21.9% of batters faced in that time and gave out walks at a 7.5% pace, both marks being close to typical league averages. His 50.8% ground ball rate in that span was quite strong.

He has spent at least some time on the injured list in each of those campaigns. Back problems are a recurring issue but there was also an elbow strain and a hamstring strain mixed in. Due to those injury setbacks, he has never hit the 160-inning mark in any season of his career. As for the velocity, he was able to average in the 93-94 mile per hour range with his fastball a few years ago. However, over the past two seasons, he’s been in the 91-92 mph range.

It’s not a perfect profile but Suárez is still one of the better arms out there. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Suárez could secure a five-year, $115MM deal. He was the fourth starting pitcher on the list, behind Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez and Tatsuya Imai. Cease has signed with the Blue Jays but Valdez, Imai and Suárez remain three of the most attractive starting pitchers available. Suárez rejected a qualifying offer from the Phillies, meaning any other team that signs him would be subject to the associated penalties.

Valdez is a fairly similar pitcher, since he’s also a ground ball guy, but he edges past Suárez for a few reasons. Though he’s two years older, he’s been more durable. While Suárez has never got to 160 innings, Valdez got to at least 176 in each of the past four seasons, including three with at least 192 frames. His ground ball rate is usually in the 60% range, about 10 points ahead of Suárez. His velocity has also been a few ticks above Suárez of late. MLBTR predicted Valdez for $150MM over five years.

The Astros just lost Valdez to free agency and need help in the rotation due to a large number of injuries. They seem to have a tight budget, with an apparent desire to avoid the competitive balance tax. It therefore makes sense that they might look to pivot to Suárez as a way to effectively replace Valdez at a discount.

RosterResource has Houston’s CBT number around $220MM, putting them roughly $24MM below next year’s base threshold of the tax. Signing Suárez would likely put them right up against the line but they could also create some more room by trading someone like Jake Meyers, Jesús Sánchez or Christian Walker.

Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias has publicly admitted that the club is looking for a front-of-rotation starter to slot next to Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish. They have generally avoided big splashes on the pitching side. They also needed rotation help last year and ended up giving one-year deals to Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano, relatively older guys without much upside. It’s possible they make a bolder strike this offseason, having been connected to Imai, Valdez and others.

The Cubs are also known to be on the lookout for rotation upgrades. They have a number of decent arms already on the roster but clearly want to raise the ceiling by adding a playoff-caliber arm. They were interested in Cease before he came off the board and have also been connected to Imai, Michael King and others.

RosterResource has them less than $50MM away from the tax line, which they have generally tried not to cross in recent years. They could also consider a big offensive upgrade, such as going after Alex Bregman. Getting both a big-name starter and Bregman could push them close to that line.

The Tigers have a big ace in Tarik Skubal but could upgrade the group behind him. As of now, Reese Olson, Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty are his best supports but the club could get an external upgrade and bump each of those guys down a peg. They haven’t been signing top free agents for a while but the tier below seems possible. They have been connected to King and now Suárez this offseason.

The Mets dealt with a lot of rotation injuries in 2025, forcing them to rely on rookies Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat. There’s talent there but the club clearly wants to make additions after a narrow playoff miss. They have been connected to Imai as well as Joe Ryan of the Twins.

They have a lot of moving parts in their offseason. Acquiring Marcus Semien might push Jeff McNeil to the trade block. They also might want to flip out Kodai Senga as they also add to the rotation. They may or may not re-sign Pete Alonso and Edwin Díaz. They also might be in the markets for Cody Bellinger and other free agents.

As for the Phillies, they could try to bring back Suárez but it might not be their priority right now. Zack Wheeler may miss the beginning of the season due to thoracic outlet syndrome surgery but it’s possible he can rejoin the club fairly early in the campaign. Once back, he would slot into the rotation with Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker and Andrew Painter.

The Phils could bolster that group but they also have other things on the to-do list. They want to re-sign Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto while also remaking their outfield. Amid all of that, it’s possible one of these other clubs has a chance to lure Suárez away.

Photo courtesy of Bill Streicher, Imagn Images

MLBTR Podcast: An Agent’s Perspective with B.B. Abbott – Also, Cease, Williams, Helsley, And Gray

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by B.B. Abbott of Wasserman Baseball to discuss…

  • Abbott’s approach to free agency (3:30)
  • The impact of the media on free agency (10:00)
  • The different levels of player involvement in free agency (17:00)
  • The decision to sign an extension instead of going to free agency (20:15)
  • Chris Sale and his extensions with the White Sox, Red Sox and Braves (23:00)
  • Byron Buxton and his extension with the Twins (28:50)
  • Representing young players going into the draft (32:10)
  • The general state of baseball (35:50)

Plus, Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors joins the show to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

  • Some “Classic Baseball Trades,” Nimmo For Semien, And Ward For Rodriguez – listen here
  • Offseason Preview Megapod: Top 50 Free Agents – listen here
  • Surprising Option Decisions, Qualifying Offers, And Paul DePodesta – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images

Latest On Center Field Market

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The center field market appears to have lots of demand. The Phillies, Mets, Rays, Orioles, Diamondbacks and Royals are all looking for upgrades at the position, according to reporting from Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic.

Those teams all make logical sense. The Phillies acquired Harrison Bader at the deadline but lost him to free agency a few months later. The Mets did the same thing with Cedric Mullins, who was terrible for them. The Rays had a rotating cast of characters in the outfield in 2025 and are known to be looking for upgrades. The Orioles traded Mullins and then trotted out Colton Cowser, who struggled while playing through broken ribs. The Diamondbacks have been waiting for Alek Thomas to break out for a few years now. The Royals have been struggling to get good production from the grass for a few seasons and are looking for upgrades.

That demand might outpace the supply. The free agent market doesn’t have a standout option. Trent Grisham would have been the headliner but he accepted a qualifying offer to return to the Yankees. Cody Bellinger is out there but he’s more of a corner guy who can play some center, as opposed to an everyday solution. Bader is available and coming off a nice season at the plate but that was fuelled by a .359 batting average on balls in play. Mullins, as mentioned, is coming off a dreadful campaign.

On the trade market, Luis Robert Jr. is available but he’s coming off two straight poor seasons. The Astros are open to moving Jake Meyers for pitching help but Meyers has generally been a light-hitting, glove-first type in his career. Perhaps the Rockies would be open to moving Brenton Doyle but he’s still controlled for four more seasons and it would be a sell-low move for Colorado after his poor 2025 campaign.

The Red Sox might be willing to move Jarren Duran to clear their outfield logjam but Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan report that the Sox are looking for a return commensurate with his excellent 2024 season as opposed to his 2025 results. Duran’s combination of offense, defense and speed led to FanGraphs crediting him with 6.8 wins above replacement in 2024. Baseball Reference was even more bullish, giving him 8.7 WAR. He regressed a bit in 2025 and ended up at 3.9 fWAR and 4.7 bWAR. He’ll make $7.7MM in 2026 and can be controlled via arbitration for another two seasons after that.

If the Sox don’t want to sell low on Duran and no one is meeting their asking price, then perhaps he’ll stay in Boston. It does feel like they have to move someone, however. Their outfield mix currently projects to include Duran, Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida and Jhostynxon Garcia. Anthony and Rafaela feel locked in because they have both signed extensions. Rafaela can also play second base but is the best defensive center fielder of the bunch.

Another theoretical trade option is Byron Buxton of the Twins. His contract gives him full no-trade protection through 2026, though it then drops to just a five-team no-trade list for the final two years of the deal. In the lead up to the 2025 deadline, as the Twins sold off a number of controllable relievers and sent infielder Carlos Correa back to Houston, Buxton repeatedly said he wasn’t interested in waiving that clause and wanted to remain a Twin for life.

That stance appears to have softened lately. Reporting last month from Dan Hayes of The Athletic suggested that Buxton would become more open to waiving his clause if the Twins continued tearing down the roster, perhaps by trading Joe Ryan or Pablo López. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey pushed back on the notion that the Twins would be making more sell-side moves but they also haven’t done much this winter to tip the scales either way.

McDaniel and Passan, linked above, say that Buxton is willing to waive his no-trade clause. It’s unclear if they mean that in the same way as Hayes, where it’s conditional on the Twins going down the rebuild road. Presumably, if Buxton is asked to waive his clause at some point, that would be part of a rebuild regardless.

Buxton is an incredibly talented player who has dealt with a lot of injury issues. His career high in games played in 140, which was back in 2017. From 2018 to 2023, he never topped 92 contests in any one season. He got to 102 in 2024 and 126 this year. When on the field, the quality has been great. He just wrapped up a season in which he hit 35 home runs and stole 24 bases. He slashed .264/.327/.551 and was credited with 5.0 fWAR.

His unique contract reflects that uncertainty. He is being paid $15MM annually, a decent sum but about half of what most superstars get. However, he can make millions more based on plate appearances and MVP voting. For the Twins, or a theoretical team rostering him in the future, they’d be happy to pay him the extra since that means he’s on the field and producing. Buxton would surely garner lots of interest if the Twins made him available but it’s still not clear if the club will go down that road.

Photo courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images

Orioles Sign Ryan Helsley

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The Orioles have signed right-hander Ryan Helsley to a two-year contract that allows him to opt out after the 2026 season. It’s reportedly a $28MM guarantee for the Wasserman client, who’d also receive a $500K assignment bonus if he’s traded. The salary is evenly distributed, so Helsley will decide on a $14MM player option next winter.

Felix Bautista underwent shoulder surgery last August that will keep the closer on the injured list until at least August 2026, and that timeline means one setback could sideline Bautista for the entirety of the 2026 campaign.  As a result, the Orioles headed into the offseason looking for multiple bullpen additions, including a pitcher with past experience as a closer.

Helsley fits that description, as he racked up 105 saves as the Cardinals’ primary ninth-inning choice from 2022-25.  This stretch saw Helsley named to two NL All-Star teams, he was the NL’s Reliever Of The Year in 2024, and he even received some down-ballot Cy Young Award consideration in both 2022 and 2024.  Overall, Helsley posted a 2.67 ERA, 29.12% strikeout rate, and 9.93% walk rate over 299 2/3 innings in a St. Louis uniform, from his debut with the team in 2019 until he was traded to the Mets at last July’s trade deadline.

Given the Cardinals’ struggles over the last few seasons and Helsley’s looming free agency, it was seen as a surprise that it took so long for the reliever to be traded.  (In fact, the Orioles were first rumored to be interested in Helsley back in May 2024.)  Even trading Helsley last winter in the wake of his excellent 2024 would’ve brought a greater return back to the Cardinals, though they still landed three prospects in the midseason deal with New York.  And, considering how things went south for Helsley with the Mets, it’s hard to say the Cards didn’t come out on top in the deal.

Over 20 innings and 22 appearances with the Mets, Helsley was torched for a 7.20 ERA, with his home run rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate all going in the wrong direction.  Helsley felt he was tipping his pitches during his time in New York, but whatever the cause, the move back into a setup role behind Edwin Diaz ended up as a wash.  Helsley’s struggles were one of the many reasons behind a disastrous second half for the Mets that saw the team slowly fade out of the playoff race and ultimately fall short of the postseason.

Despite this rough stretch, close to half the league reportedly had interest in Helsley on the open market.  The Blue Jays, Cubs, and Tigers were among the many teams who saw Helsley as a bounce-back candidate and, intriguingly, Detroit and some other clubs viewed Helsley as a potential starting pitcher.  Given how Helsley has never started a game at the MLB level, it would’ve been a surprising development to see him land somewhere as a rotation candidate, but he’ll now settle into his familiar closing role in Baltimore.

MLB Trade Rumors still ranked Helsley 36th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents. He topped our projection of a two-year, $24MM deal, and he might end up handily topping $24MM over a two-year timeframe depending on what happens with his opt-out clause.  If he rediscovers his 2024 form, Helsley will surely choose to re-enter free agency in search of a more lucrative longer-term contract.  The Orioles might not mind that scenario if Bautista is back healthy by that point, and Helsley could then be tagged with a qualifying offer heading into free agency next winter.

Helsley brings elite velocity and spin with his 99.3mph fastball, though batters teed off on Helsley’s fastball in 2025, and his slider has been the more effective of his pitches over the last few years.  The righty has long struggled to avoid walks or hard contact, though the home run ball was never a huge issue until his brief stint with the Mets.  It obviously wasn’t the ideal platform for Helsley as he entered free agency, yet it is understandable why the Orioles still felt comfortable in making a two-year investment in his services.

Even a two-year pact counts as a big step for an O’s front office that has been pretty conservative about investing heavily in free agents.  Much of Mike Elias’ seven-year stint in charge of the baseball operations department was spent rebuilding, of course, but Tyler O’Neill’s three-year, $49.5MM deal from last winter is the only other multi-year contract Elias has even given to a free agent.  The Orioles’ disappointing 75-win performance in 2025 may have raised the urgency level, as Baltimore has been linked to a number of top-shelf names in this year’s free agent market.

Between signing Helsley and re-acquiring old friend Andrew Kittredge, the back end of the Orioles’ bullpen looks much sturdier than it did at season’s end.  More relievers could still be on the way, but Baltimore’s primary pitching need is now rotation help.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that Helsley was in agreement with Baltimore on a two-year deal with an opt-out. Katie Woo of The Athletic had the $28MM guarantee, while The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal first reported the $500K assignment bonus. The Associated Press reported the salary breakdown.

Inset photo courtesy of Brad Penner — Imagn Images

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