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Teams That Gained Or Lost Draft Picks Via Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Now that Marcell Ozuna has signed, all 10 of the players who were issued a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer in November have settled on teams for the 2020 season.  Of that group, two (Jose Abreu of the White Sox and Jake Odorizzi of the Twins) accepted their qualifying offers and returned to their clubs — Abreu, in fact, topped off his QO by signing a contract extension that will run through the 2022 season.  Stephen Strasburg also isn’t changing uniforms, as the longtime Nationals ace rejected the club’s qualifying offer but eventually re-signed with Washington on a seven-year, $245MM deal.

That leaves us with seven QO players who will be playing on new teams in 2020, and as such, the draft compensation attached to those seven players has also now been allotted.  Under the rules of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the same compensation was handed out to all six teams who lost those players, as the entire sextet fell under the same financial criteria.  The Mets, Cardinals, Braves, Giants, Nationals, and Astros all aren’t revenue-sharing recipients, nor did they exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2019, so all six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft.

Here is how the so-called “Compensation Round” breaks down.  The order of the picks is determined by worst record-to-best record from the 2019 season.

68. Giants (for Madison Bumgarner)
69. Giants (for Will Smith)
70. Mets (for Zack Wheeler)
71. Cardinals (for Marcell Ozuna)
72. Nationals (for Anthony Rendon)
73. Braves (for Josh Donaldson)
74. Astros (for Gerrit Cole)

San Francisco now possesses five of the first 87 picks in next June’s draft.  With the Giants still in the NL wild card race last summer, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi opted to hang onto Bumgarner and Smith rather than trade either player, a decision that led to some criticism since San Francisco was widely considered to be closer to rebuilding than truly contending.  The critics’ judgement grew even harsher after the Giants went 22-32 record in August and September and fell well short of the postseason.  Still, given that teams were reluctant to part with top-flight young talent for even controllable players (let alone rentals like Bumgarner and Smith) at the trade deadline, Zaidi clearly felt that the two picks he could recoup from the qualifying offer process were more valuable than anything offered for the two Giants pitchers last July.

It’s worth noting that the 74th overall pick will be Houston’s first selection of the 2020 draft, after the Astros lost both their first- and second-highest selections in both 2020 and 2021 as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.  Since the Red Sox are also under league investigation for their own alleged use of electronics to steal opponents’ signs in 2018, Boston could also potentially lose at least one pick in this year’s draft, so we can’t yet say that the 2020 draft order is finalized.  Of course, the order could be further muddled if more trades occur involving picks from the two Competitive Balance Draft rounds, which are the only types of draft picks that can be traded.  We’ve already seen the Rays and Cardinals swap their picks in Rounds A and B as part of the multi-player trade that sent Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay earlier this month.

Let’s now look at the six teams who signed the seven QO-rejecting free agents, and see what those clubs had to give up in order to make the signings.

Yankees, for signing Gerrit Cole: Since New York exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2019, they gave up their second- and fifth-round picks in the 2020 draft (a.k.a. their second- and fifth-highest selections).  The Yankees also gave up $1MM in funds from their international signing bonus pool.

Diamondbacks, for signing Madison Bumgarner: As a team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and was a revenue-sharing recipient, the D’Backs had to give up their third-highest draft choice to sign Bumgarner.  This ended up being Arizona’s second-round selection — the team’s first two picks are their first-rounder (18th overall) and their pick in Competitive Balance Round A (33rd overall).

Twins, for signing Josh Donaldson: Minnesota also received revenue-sharing and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, so signing Donaldson put the Twins in position to give up their third-highest draft selection.  However, the Twins are actually giving up their fourth-highest pick in the 2020 draft, which is their third-round selection.  The Twins’ actual third selection is their pick in Competitive Balance Round B, but those picks aren’t eligible to be forfeited as compensation for QO free agent signings.

Angels, for signing Anthony Rendon: Since the Halos didn’t receive revenue-sharing funds and also didn’t pay any luxury tax money, they had to give up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K in international bonus funds to sign Rendon.

Phillies, for signing Zack Wheeler: The Phillies surrendered their second-highest selection (their second-round pick) and $500K of their international bonus pool, since they were another team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax line and didn’t receive revenue-sharing money.

Braves, for signing Will Smith and Marcell Ozuna: The dual signings put Atlanta in line for a dual penalty.  The Braves didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and also didn’t receive revenue-sharing money, so they gave up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K of international bonus money for Smith.  In landing Ozuna, the Braves then had to also forfeit their third-round pick (their third-highest selection) and another $500K from their international bonus pool.

Losing two draft picks and $1MM in international pool money isn’t nothing, though these particular sanctions had less impact on the Braves than on other teams, which undoubtedly influenced their decisions.  First of all, the compensatory pick Atlanta received for Donaldson is higher in the draft order than their third-round pick, so the net loss is only a second-round pick.  Secondly, the Braves’ movement in the international market is still limited by the punishment handed out by Major League Baseball in November 2017 for Atlanta’s past international signing violations.  Part of that punishment included the Braves’ pool for the 2020-21 international market being reduced by 50 percent — being so handcuffed in the international market anyway, the Braves probably felt $1MM in pool money was no great loss.

Mets, Eduardo Nunez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Mets have agreed to a minor league deal with free-agent infielder Eduardo Nunez, according to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com. It includes a non-roster invite to Major League Spring Training.

Nunez, 32, is coming off a dreadful year that ended in July with his release from the Red Sox, with whom he had played since mid-2017. Nunez played in just 60 games for the Sox last year, and yet he accumulated -1.5 WAR thanks largely to an unsightly .228/.243/.305 batting line.

Those numbers are hard to swallow, but Nunez really isn’t that far from removed from a couple of seasons in 2016 and 2017 in which he provided above-average offensive output to go with his signature aggressive baserunning. Splitting the 2017 season between San Francisco and Boston, he posted an .801 OPS to go with 24 stolen bases. He’s never received high marks as a defender, but he’s at least capable of playing second and third base.

He will join an already crowded Mets infield mix with a chance to compete for a roster spot in the spring. The starting infield looks pretty well solidified, but Nunez may have a shot at supplanting Luis Guillorme, who’s a more polished shortstop but also has a patchy offensive track record, for bench at-bats.

Latest on Padres And Mookie Betts

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The Padres continue to push for another star as they engage in trade discussions with the Red Sox for Mookie Betts and the Pirates for Starling Marte. The newest tidbit comes for MLB Network insider Jon Heyman who tweets that the Padres are more likely to move Luis Patino than MacKenzie Gore. To be clear, Heyman also notes that trading top prospects for one year of Betts doesn’t make intuitive sense for the Padres. They are – at the very least – interested and exploring the cost.

What we can really glean from Heyman’s tweet is more about the internal hierarchy with which the Padres view their system. Though the implication is that the Padres would consider moving Patino for Betts, that’s far from explicit and runs counter to most of the scuttlebutt coming out of San Diego.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, have expressed interest in catching prospect Luis Campusano, Baseball America’s #79 ranked prospect, tweets The Athletic’s Dennis Lin. That might be a more reasonable place to start, depending on the money changing hands in any potential deal. Campusano would be a solid get in any deal after putting together a .325/.396/.509 year as a 20-year-old in High-A.

As for Marte, reports over the last couple of days have been conflicting to an almost comical degree. News from the Mets and Padres – the two noted teams of interest – both evoked cooling interest due to asking price. Heyman, meanwhile, reported that the talks have “intensified,” which in trade parlance usually connotes positivity, though literally speaking, intensity doesn’t necessarily imply progress. Speculatively speaking, it appears there may be a little gamesmanship as one side or all three may be doing what they can to push negotiations in their direction.

Latest On Pirates’ Starling Marte Trade Talks

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January 24, 8:00pm: In comments to the media today, Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen threw some cold water on the idea of a significant move to change the complexion of the team’s outfield mix, as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo was among those to cover. But he didn’t exactly slam the door shut.

When queried about the team’s plans in the outfield, Van Wagenen says he doesn’t want to “disrupt” the existing “chemistry” and “culture where people buy into one another.” In the money quote that has drawn the most attention, Van Wagenen said he doesn’t “see a deal that’s going to disrupt that environment.”

At the same time, Van Wagenen says he’s open-minded to changing the cast. “If there’s an opportunity to continue to improve our roster, we’ll explore it,” he says, “but our aggressiveness right now is focused on getting ready for Spring Training with the players we have.” It’s a bit unclear just what it means to aggressively prepare to open camp. What does seem evident from this comment is that the Mets (quite understandably) prefer to focus public energy on the existing roster … but aren’t ruling out further moves.

10:00am: The Pirates’ talks involving Marte have “intensified,” tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who lists the Padres and Mets as potential suitors, though it’s worth noting of course that the report comes just the morning after Lin indicated that talks with San Diego have “cooled.” Furthermore, SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that the Mets and Pirates are “pretty far apart” in their talks on Marte at the moment.

January 23: The Padres have their sights set on on a bona fide superstar, Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts, and they’ve also been connected to Pirates center fielder Starling Marte in trade rumors this offseason. At this point, though, it doesn’t appear a Marte deal will come together between the Padres and Pirates. The teams’ talks “have cooled, likely over the asking price,” Dennis Lin of The Athletic writes (subscription link).

Marte’s not the player Betts is (few are), but that’s not to say he isn’t plenty valuable in his own right. In fact, the 31-year-old has been one of the majors’ top center fielders throughout his career. Marte totaled at least 3.0 fWAR for the sixth time in his seven full seasons last year, posted his second straight 20-20 campaign (23 home runs, 25 stolen bases) and slashed .295/.342/.503 over 586 plate appearances.

Despite Marte’s perennial effectiveness, there is a case that the Pirates and new general manager Ben Cherington should sell him sooner than later. Marte’s under control for a maximum of just two more years – a pair of seasons that don’t figure to wind up as playoff-caliber efforts for the club. And though Marte’s control is dwindling, his affordability should only boost his trade value. He’s due a reasonable $11.5MM this year and could then make a similarly affordable $12.5MM by way of a club option in 2021; that’s if Marte’s employer doesn’t buy him out for $1MM instead, but the odds of that happening appear quite slim right now.

There are several teams that would make sense as Marte suitors, as Jeff Todd of MLBTR explored this week. The Padres, who have been busy in the outfield this winter (they’ve added Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham, subtracted Hunter Renfroe and would like to get rid of Wil Myers’ contract), are one of them. So far, however, it doesn’t look as if San Diego has made much progress in trying to pry Marte out of Pittsburgh.

Mets Hire Luis Rojas As Manager

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TODAY: The Mets have officially announced the hiring.  Rojas will be introduced at a press conference on Friday.

JANUARY 22, 1:46pm: Rojas will receive a two year deal in addition to multiple club options, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

11:53am: The Mets have moved swiftly in the wake of the departure of manager Carlos Beltran. Their 2020 club will be helmed by Luis Rojas, according to multiple reporters including Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter) and Tim Britton of The Athletic (Twitter link).

Rojas and the Mets are said to be finalizing a multi-year contract. The 38-year-old had interviewed for the open managerial position before it went to Beltran, leaving Rojas to reprise his role as quality control coach. But when Beltran stepped out the door due to his role in the Astros cheating scandal, the Mets turned back to Rojas.

Indications are that Rojas will oversee the same coaching staff that had expected to serve under Beltran. Obviously there’ll be at least one new hire as well, to account for the promotion.

It’s a bit opportunity for Rojas, who’ll take over for former manager Mickey Callaway after just one year on an MLB staff. Rojas came up through the Mets farm system as a coach and manager but had only overseen big leaguers during his time managing Dominican Winter League outfits.

Beyond his own experience, Rojas comes from a royal lineage. He’s the son of legendary skipper Felipe Alou and half-brother of MLB stalwart Moises Alou. MLB.com’s Nathalie Alonso detailed Rojas’s rise and managerial future in an article last summer.

This is obviously not how anyone envisioned Rojas moving into the manager’s seat, but he’ll need to hit the ground running. Camp opens in just three weeks and Rojas inherits a roster that carries win-now expectations after two-straight disappointing campaigns. The stakes are lofty for all involved, including GM Brodie Van Wagenen and his front office, with an ownership change on the horizon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Bullpens

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We’ve gone over how the five worst offenses and rotations of last season now look with the offseason nearing completion. We’ll do the same here with the quintet of bullpens that had the most difficulty preventing runs in 2019. Judging a bullpen just by ERA is an admittedly crude method, though each of the relief units in question here also posted subpar fielding-independent metrics. The bottom line is that they struggled. Let’s see how they stack up now…

Baltimore Orioles (5.79 ERA/5.38 FIP; current depth chart)

  • No surprise to see the Orioles at the bottom, considering the rebuilding outfit’s myriad difficulties last season. The Orioles didn’t get particularly impressive production from any of their relievers. Even their No. 1 option, Mychal Givens, had trouble at times, though he did strike out better than 12 batters per nine. Givens is on track to open the season with the Orioles, but he could certainly be an in-season trade candidate. If they move him, it would further weaken a bullpen that hasn’t added anyone of note this offseason.

Washington Nationals (5.68 ERA/4.94 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Nationals proved last season that you can have a bottom-of-the-barrel bullpen from a statistical standpoint and still win the World Series. However, general manager Mike Rizzo’s in-season tinkering with the group proved effective, especially the acquisition of flamethrowing closer Daniel Hudson at the trade deadline. Hudson remains in the fold, having re-signed in free agency for two years and $11MM. In an even bigger move, the Nationals signed Will Harris – a former Astro whom they upended in the Fall Classic – to a three-year, $24MM pact. With those two and the returning Sean Doolittle, Washington appears to be in nice shape late in games, but it’ll need more from Hunter Strickland, Roenis Elias, Wander Suero and Tanner Rainey.

Colorado Rockies (5.18 ERA/5.12 FIP; current depth chart)

  • There were few oft-used bright spots last season in Colorado’s bullpen, which didn’t get much from anyone but Scott Oberg and Carlos Estevez. The good news is that it’s hard to imagine Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee pitching much worse in 2020 than they did last season. And even if they do, they’re all entering the final guaranteed season of their onerous contracts, so they shouldn’t be the Rockies’ problem for much longer. In the meantime, the Rockies are going to need bounce-back efforts from them because they haven’t meaningfully addressed their late-game setup this offseason.

Kansas City Royals (5.07 ERA/4.55 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Kansas City’s another team that has been quiet in the past few months, despite its less-than-stellar output a year ago. There are a couple bullpen trade candidates on hand in Ian Kennedy and Tim Hill, arguably the Royals’ two best relievers, but nothing has materialized on those fronts thus far. Kennedy was terrific last season in his first year as a reliever, though the fact that he’s due $16.5MM in 2020 has likely scared off interested teams.

New York Mets (4.99 ERA/4.71 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Mets were extremely busy in trying to repair their bullpen last offseason, when they traded for ex-Mariners star Edwin Diaz and signed Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson. The latter pitched well during an injury-shortened campaign, but Diaz and Familia fell off a cliff, which is why the Mets are on this list a year later. At least in Diaz’s case, though, it would be reasonable to expect a much better performance in 2020. He struck out over 15 batters per nine and maintained his 97 mph velocity last year, after all, and isn’t going to surrender home runs on 27 percent of fly balls again this season. Regardless of how he does, the Mets have added some notable support to their relief unit in the past several weeks. They signed former Yankee Dellin Betances, one of the elite relievers in recent memory (albeit one coming off an injury-ruined year), as well as the accomplished Brad Brach. They also have the newly signed Michael Wacha as a potential long relief option, not to mention holdovers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman.

Mets Reportedly Down To 3 Managerial Candidates

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It continues to look likely that the Mets’ next manager will come from within the organization. They’re deciding among a trio of in-house candidates – quality control coach Luis Rojas, bench coach Hensley Meulens and first base coach Tony DeFrancesco – for the position, Andy Martino of SNY tweets.

Rojas and DeFrancesco were also candidates for the Mets during their previous search for a manager this offseason. That concluded with the hiring of first-timer Carlos Beltran in November, but his reign came to an abrupt end when he stepped down last week over his role in the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal.

Like Beltran, neither Rojas nor Meulens has managed in the majors. The 38-year-old Rojas is the son of longtime skipper Felipe Alou, though, and has managed for the Mets at the High-A and Double-A levels. He’s coming off his first season on the team’s major league staff.

Meulens and DeFrancesco are new to their current positions in New York, though the former has a boatload of recent MLB experience as an assistant. The 53-year-old Meulens spent the previous decade as a key member of San Francisco’s staff under Bruce Bochy, coaching first base for eight years and serving as a bench coach for two.

DeFrancesco, 56, has been a Triple-A manager with multiple franchises, including the Mets from 2018-19. He was also the interim manager for the Astros in 2012.

Mets, Rene Rivera Agree To Minors Deal

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The Mets have agreed to a minor league contract with catcher Rene Rivera, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. The deal includes an invitation to major league spring training for Rivera, who will earn a $1MM salary with up to $300K in incentives if he makes the Mets’ roster.

This is the third time since 2016 and the second offseason in a row in which the Mets have added Rivera on a minors pact. The well-traveled 36-year-old ended up playing in just nine games with the club last season. He spent the majority of the year as a member of the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate, with whom he batted .254/.319/.501 and smacked 25 home runs in 396 plate appearances.

Historically, Rivera hasn’t been all that successful at the plate in the majors, where he has hit .221/.272/.354 in 1,547 tries. However, he’s a well-regarded defender who has thrown out an excellent 36 percent of would-be base thieves during his time in the majors and earned the trust of Mets starter Noah Syndergaard.

Rivera will now attempt to work his way back to the bigs with a team whose catching situation isn’t ideal. Wilson Ramos is entrenched as the starter, though he had a somewhat disappointing 2019, and the leading candidate to back him up remains the extremely light-hitting Tomas Nido.

Latest On Yoenis Cespedes’ Recovery

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Injuries have derailed Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes’ career over the past couple seasons, but the 34-year-old is finally progressing toward a return to a major league diamond. On Monday, Cespedes tweeted a video of himself sprinting, swinging a bat and catching a fly ball at the Mets’ spring training headquarters in Port St. Lucie, Fla. (hat tip to Matt Kelly of MLB.com)

While it may not sound like much, any footage of Cespedes performing baseball activities is encouraging at this point. The injury-riddled Cespedes has gone from star to afterthought dating back to 2017, having appeared in a meager 119 regular-season games since then. He didn’t play past July in 2018 and didn’t suit up at all last year on account of foot problems. Cespedes fractured his right ankle in May as a result of a dust-up with, of all things, a wild boar at his ranch in Port St. Lucie.

If there’s a silver lining for the Mets, it’s that Cespedes’ boar battle did lead to some financial relief for them. The team stopped paying his salary for 2019 sometime last season, and the two sides reached an agreement on an amended contract back in December. Consequently, New York will shell out $6MM to Cespedes this year instead of the $29.5MM he was supposed to earn. That’s a positive development for the club’s books, but it’s obviously not the outcome the Mets envisioned when they re-signed Cespedes to a four-year, $110MM deal before the 2017 season.

Cespedes is now going into the last season of his pact, though it’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll come close to resembling the player he was before his health troubles arose. It’s also up in the air just how much playing time Cespedes will garner in 2020, as the Mets have a strong mix of other corner outfield-capable players (Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith) and could add yet another starting-caliber OFer in trade target Starling Marte. There’s also no designated hitter role for Cespedes to fall back on, and he can’t make a regular shift to first base with NL Rookie of the Year winner Pete Alonso entrenched at the position.

Latest On Mets’ Managerial Search

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Longtime major league managers Buck Showalter, Dusty Baker and John Gibbons have been mentioned as speculative fits for the Mets since Carlos Beltran stepped down last week. However, as of now, none of them are candidates to take over in New York, Jon Heyman of MLB Network suggests. Something would have to “drastically” change for any of the three to emerge as a possibility for the Mets’ job, according to Heyman.

To this point, almost no known Beltran successors have come to the fore since he left the organization Thursday as a result of the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing fiasco. The lone reported name is Mets quality control coach Luis Rojas, whom they almost hired before making the ill-fated decision to tab Beltran back in the fall.

Now, it seems Mets bigwigs aren’t fully sure how to proceed in the wake of Beltran’s sudden exit. There’s “some level of paralysis” from their front office on where to turn, according to the New York Post’s Mike Puma, who notes an eventual ownership change is part of the issue.

While minority owner Steve Cohen won’t grab the reins from Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon as the Mets’ control person until 2025, his eventual takeover has slowed down the club as it seeks its next skipper. GM Brodie Van Wagenen & Co. fear they’ll “look bad to Cohen” if they hire a manager whom they didn’t consider in their previous search, Puma writes. So, with that in mind, it appears Rojas is the front-runner to land the position after coming up short in his bid for it just a couple months ago.

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