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Sandy Alderson Suggests Mets Will Likely Retain Matt Harvey For 2018

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Despite the increasingly worrying health issues and pitching struggles of former Mets ace Matt Harvey, the club isn’t ready to give up on his talent. As GM Sandy Alderson tells Mike Puma of the New York Post, “it’s high unlikely that we’re not going to bring [Harvey] back next year.”

Harvey is still just 28 years old and isn’t far removed from being one of the game’s most dominant starters. If there was concern when he limped to a 4.86 ERA in 17 starts last year, though, it’s all the more pressing now that he has surrendered 6.59 earned per nine through the same number of outings in the current season.

The enigmatic righty has averaged less than five frames per start while managing only 6.6 K/9 against an uncharacteristic 4.5 BB/9. He has seen his velocity waver over the course of the season (with an average that’s down one mph from last year and two mph from the prior season). And his swinging-strike rate has plummeted to 7.5% and yet more arm problems have arisen during the year.

Despite all that, New York evidently sees value in tendering Harvey a contract in his final year of arbitration eligibility. And that’s really not surprising. Harvey will get at least a marginal raise on this year’s $5.125MM arb salary, but the bill will remain well within range of the one-year guarantees that other interesting bounceback type pitchers command in free agency.

While there’s some risk in paying Harvey, notes Puma, there’s probably even greater risk to the front office if it lets him find his form elsewhere. And it isn’t as if the team can’t use the possible innings that Harvey will be expected to provide; talent and uncertainty abound in the rest of the staff, too.

For now, Alderson says, the club will “keep running him out there and see what happens.” It seems that’ll be the approach in 2018 as well — so long as the Mets don’t find a surprise trade and Harvey shows enough promise in camp that he isn’t cut loose to avoid fully guaranteeing his arb payout.

Latest On Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard

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Mets righty Matt Harvey turned in another abysmal start last night, leaving him with a 13.19 ERA in his four outings since returning from the DL. As Marc Carig of Newsday writes, Harvey seemed rather dejected after the game, calling his work “terrible all the way around” — though, perhaps, there’s at least some cause for hope in the fact that he is working in the mid-nineties with his fastball. Of course, that’s hardly sufficient in and of itself, and the results have been sobering. “Everybody’s watching,” said Harvey. “I don’t really know what there is to say except for there is nothing to say. It’s terrible. It’s not fun. There’s really nothing to say. There’s no reason for questions. There’s no answers.”

  • Meanwhile, the Mets are still waiting to see just how fellow righty Noah Syndergaard will look when he returns to the majors after a long layoff for a partial lat tear. As Mike Puma of the New York Post reports, though, it’s likely at this point that Syndergaard will only be allowed to make two appearances. It had been hoped at one point that he’d be able to make a much more significant return to end the year, but the club has understandably exercised caution. The young ace, after all, is a critically important member of a pitching staff that possesses many questions heading into the offseason.

Plawecki's Improved Play Impressing Mets

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  • Kevin Plawecki’s improved play in Triple-A made the Mets feel comfortable letting Rene Rivera go on a waiver claim to the Cubs last month, writes Mike Puma of the New York Post, and his solid production in the Majors now leaves him feeling less concerned about losing his roster spot. The 26-year-old admitted to pressing too much in the past to “try to make some things happen” but said he’s in a different mental state this time around. “[W]hat has been different this time is just trusting what I have been doing all season [in Triple-A] and not having that thought in the back of my head, ‘How long am I going to be here and how big of a window do I have to prove myself?’” Mets GM Sandy Alderson has previously suggested that the Mets are unlikely to pursue catching upgrades this winter, meaning Plawecki and Travis d’Arnaud figure to play prominent roles with the 2018 club. Since being recalled from Triple-A, Plawecki is hitting .283/.387/.482 in 17 games.

Would The Mets Do The Yoenis Cespedes Contract Again?

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  • Less than a year after the Yankees and Mets signed Aroldis Chapman and Yoenis Cespedes to multi-year free agent deals, Joel Sherman of the New York Post doubts either team would make those signings again given how both stars underachieved in 2017.  Injuries played a part in both players’ performance, of course, and there is still lots of time for Chapman and Cespedes to deliver on their contracts.  In Chapman’s case, his relative struggles also haven’t kept the Yankees from leading the AL wild card race.  With Chapman owed $60MM through the 2021 season, however, it’s still an ominous sign for the Yankees that this down year came in the first season of that deal.

Mets Notes: Syndergaard, Vogelsong

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  • The Mets have some reservations about using ace Noah Syndergaard again this year, Matt Ehalt of The Record reports (on Twitter). Unsurprisingly, if Syndergaard does return in 2017, the Mets will need to be convinced he’s at full strength. The flamethrowing superstar hasn’t pitched in the majors since April 30 because of a torn right lat, and while he has been working his way back recently, there’s not exactly a need for the out-of-contention Mets to deploy him again this season.
  • Newly retired right-hander Ryan Vogelsong could have continued his career after Minnesota released him in March, but he told Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle and other reporters that he “checked out mentally” after the Twins cut him (Twitter links here). Vogelsong received minor league offers earlier this season, including from the Mets, but he didn’t want to move his family to Las Vegas – the home of their Triple-A affiliate.

Three Needs: New York Mets

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This is the latest edition in MLBTR’s Three Needs series. Read versions on the Tigers, Reds, Pirates and Giants.

Fresh off back-to-back playoff seasons, the Mets entered 2017 with championship aspirations but have instead endured a Murphy’s Law campaign. Injuries and subpar performances have been the norm this year for the Mets, who have limped to a 63-84 record and have allowed 84 more runs than they’ve scored (783 to 679). With the exception of right-hander Jacob deGrom, all of New York’s stars have missed significant time with injuries. Even the Mets’ brightest spot of 2017, breakout outfielder Michael Conforto, couldn’t get through the year unscathed. Conforto suffered a torn left shoulder capsule in August, though the Mets don’t expect it to negatively affect him next season. As the Mets hope Conforto fully recovers from surgery over the next several months, their general manager (be it Sandy Alderson or someone else) will use the offseason to upgrade their roster in the hopes of returning to contention in 2018. Here’s a look at a few things New York could do during the winter…

1.) Add reliable starting pitching:

Ace Noah Syndergaard hasn’t pitched since suffering a torn lat muscle in his right arm on April 30, thus depriving the Mets of one of the game’s elite starters for nearly the entire season. He and deGrom will front the Mets’ rotation next year, though, giving the team an enviable one-two punch and taking pressure off the remainder of the rotation. New York is in dire need of help behind that duo, however, as counting on any other in-house options entering 2018 would be a substantial risk.

Former ace and 2016 thoracic outlet syndrome surgery recipient Matt Harvey’s career has gone off the rails since last season, meaning the Mets will have to decide whether to bring the 28-year-old back in 2018 for his final arbitration-eligible campaign. Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz each endured rough seasons that ended early on account of injuries, which is all the more trouble considering they came into the year with durability questions. And both Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo have taken sizable steps backward since serving as key starters for the Mets in 2016. Rafael Montero, the only other Met to log double-digit starts this season, has been passable (4.83 ERA, 4.09 FIP in 85 2/3 innings), but it’s unclear whether he has done enough to warrant a spot for next year. The soon-to-be 27-year-old won’t have any minor league options remaining when 2018 rolls around.

From 2014-16, the Mets had Bartolo Colon in the fold as someone to provide 30-plus starts of roughly 4.00 ERA ball to complement their top-of-the-rotation arms. They’ve clearly missed that type of starter this season, though the year Colon has had with the Braves and Twins suggests he wouldn’t have been part of the solution anymore for New York. Any of Jhoulys Chacin, Marco Estrada, Doug Fister (whom the Mets courted as a free agent earlier this year) or John Lackey could make sense if the Mets aren’t in big-spending mode on the open market. But if New York is willing to splurge on an expensive starter, Lance Lynn would be a strong fit. Lynn missed 2016 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but he has otherwise delivered nothing but quality seasons of 175 or more innings since 2012.

2.) Sort out the infield:

It’s safe to say Amed Rosario, one of the game’s premier prospects, will continue to man shortstop in 2018. Uncertainty abounds everywhere else in the Mets’ infield, including at third base, where injuries have ruined team captain and seven-time All-Star David Wright’s career. Neck, back and shoulder problems have limited the longtime superstar to 75 games since the start of the 2015 season, and he hasn’t played in a major league contest since May 1, 2016. The Mets can’t expect anything out of the 34-year-old going forward, then, especially considering he underwent right rotator cuff surgery earlier this month. Wright is due an astronomical $20MM salary in 2018, but the Mets will save 75 percent of that figure via insurance for as long as he’s on the disabled list.

Wright replacements Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores and T.J. Rivera have been reasonably effective in his stead this year, but it’s no sure thing any will be the answer at third next season. Reyes and Cabrera aren’t even locks to be on the team in 2018, in fact, as the former is a free agent-to-be and the latter has a team option. Barring trades, Flores and Rivera will be back (notably, the latter is recovering from Tommy John surgery), but they’ve never been single-position players. Those two could continue to rotate among third, second and first next year, which, combined with a Cabrera return, would mitigate the need for a major infield acquisition in the offseason. Otherwise, the Mets could conceivably add an established player at any of those spots, depending in part on whether they think rookie first baseman Dominic Smith is already a capable starter. In the aggregate, the 22-year-old hasn’t been all that productive since the Mets promoted him in the first half of August, and he wasn’t a world-class minor league producer. While Smith’s September numbers are gaudy (.300/.375/.620 in 56 plate appearances), an unsustainable batting average on balls in play (.379) and below-average strikeout and walk numbers paint a less rosy picture.

If they’re not content with Smith and/or their other infield options, there should be some reasonably priced potential targets available for the Mets in the offseason. First base types in Yonder Alonso, old friends Lucas Duda and Jay Bruce, and Logan Morrison will be on the market as cheaper alternatives to Eric Hosmer and Carlos Santana. Eduardo Nunez and Todd Frazier lead the way at third behind Mike Moustakas, who may prove to be too expensive for the Mets’ taste. Reds shortstop Zack Cozart could also entice third base-needy teams in free agency, though his lack of durability may scare away a Mets team that has dealt with a deluge of injuries lately. Considering his baserunning prowess, Nunez would be a good fit for New York, which ranks 25th in the majors in FanGraphs’ BsR metric and 29th in steals. Nunez can also play second, where the upcoming free agent class lacks players who are obvious upgrades over what the Mets already have. The same is likely true of the trade market, as the Tigers’ Ian Kinsler and the Dodgers’ Logan Forsythe have underwhelmed this year. The Athletics’ Jed Lowrie has fared well, on the other hand, but injuries have been problematic for him during his career.

3.) Get relief help:

Mets relievers finished 2016 second in the majors in fWAR and sixth in ERA. One year later, they’re 19th and 29th in those categories. There’s currently little in the way of confidence-inspiring in-house options beyond AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins and Jeurys Familia, the latter of whom has been one of many high-profile Mets to suffer through an unexpectedly terrible season, perhaps leaving room for multiple additions. Indeed, the Mets are zeroing in on the bullpen as an area they’ll need to address in the offseason. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote Wednesday, former Met Addison Reed, Brandon Kintzler, Juan Nicasio, Anthony Swarzak and Pat Neshek could land on the Mets’ radar over the winter. Those are just a handful of many soon-to-be available veteran relievers who would figure to better the team’s late-game situation.

Bob Geren Could Be Favorite Should Mets Managerial Job Open

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  • Dodgers bench coach Bob Geren could be a favorite to take over the Mets managerial job in the likely event that the Mets part ways with Terry Collins. Geren was previously the Mets’ bench coach and is a favorite of Mets GM Sandy Alderson.

MLBTR Poll: Should The Mets Pick Up Asdrubal Cabrera’s Option

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Entering the year, Asdrubal Cabrera seemed rather likely to stay with New York through the 2018 season. His $8.5MM option comes with a reasonably hefty $2MM buyout, making it a $6.5MM decision. It’s hard to find a solid veteran at that sort of price tag on a one-year term, after all, and Cabrera was coming off of a 2016 campaign in which he was worth 2.7 rWAR and 3.0 fWAR as the Mets’ everyday shortstop.

Quite a bit has changed in the meantime, of course. The Mets collapsed, with injuries and performance issues leaving the anticipated contender outpacing only the Phillies in a dreadful NL East. Cabrera lost his job at short, with the Mets taking advantage of their nosedive to give a look to much-ballyhooed shortstop prospect Amed Rosario, who is not giving the position back.

On the other hand, there’s another interpretation of recent events under which not much has changed at all. While the dreadful season hurts the club’s outlook for 2018, every indication is that the organization will (quite reasonably) attempt to rebound back into contention. Cabrera was never likely to remain at shortstop over the life of his contract anyway; the Mets always thought Rosario would claim the position. If Rosario has answered any uncertainty about who’s playing short, then there’s also more uncertainty than ever at third, where David Wright has shown no signs of being able to make it back. Second base also lays unclaimed. Players such as Wilmer Flores and T.J. Rivera (both righty hitters) seemed like possible options at third and second base already, and remain so, but the switch-hitting Cabrera still brings a different element.

While Cabrera hasn’t been as productive as he was last year, he has posted another above-average year with the bat, running a .274/.344/.425 batting line with a dozen home runs through 484 plate appearances. His baserunning has graded out terribly, though one can’t help but think that the long-time infielder, who long graded as a roughly average performer on the bases, won’t repeat quite that poor a performance. Defensively, Cabrera is a palatable performer at second and now also at third; he also would represent a fill-in and backup plan at short.

All said, from a value standpoint, it seems the $6.5MM commitment would be justifiable. New York certainly has the capacity to add that kind of money to the payroll; while there are other needs, too, the club will surely like the idea of checking a box with a one-year commitment. In the end, the decision will likely come down to whether the Mets really want to build their roster with Cabrera. Should they? (Link for app users.)

Mets Expected To Pursue Veteran Relief Pitching Over Offseason

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The Mets have given every indication that they’ll try to rebound back into contention in 2018. That effort will likely include the pursuit of at least one veteran reliever, Marc Carig of Newsday reports.

New York’s front office has had plenty of time to look ahead to the winter to come. Indeed, as Carig notes, many of the club’s summer trades not only shed salaries of short-term veterans, but installed young relief arms that could make near-term impacts at the MLB level. While those additions will bolster the depth, though, none of the new hurlers has much in the way of MLB experience.

It’ll be interesting to see just how the Mets approach the offseason. Improving the relief corps does seem to offer some hope of boosting the club’s chances without making massive, long-term commitments. Of course, that’s also the case for quite a few other organizations. Presumably, the team won’t be looking at the top-tier closers on the market, but it’s possible to imagine pursuit of just about any other reliever. As usual, there are quite a few available, including high-performing late-inning arms like recent Met Addison Reed as well as Brandon Kintzler, Juan Nicasio, Anthony Swarzak, Pat Neshek, and a host of others.

Notably, the Mets will also be looking to fill needs in other areas. Priorities may include buttressing the infield mix (depending upon the team’s decision on Asdrubal Cabrera, at least) and finding a place for a quality bat (especially with Michael Conforto now facing an uncertain timeline to return from a major shoulder injury). The team will mostly have to hope for the best from its injury-riddled rotation, though perhaps a veteran could be considered there. Indeed, a swingman type might help boost the starting depth while also representing an option in the pen.

New York will likely have around $100MM already committed after it wraps up a costly bunch of arbitration deals. For an organization that had ramped up to over $150MM in salary to open the current season, though, that leaves quite a lot of room to work with — though the team’s anticipated salary levels in the coming season aren’t yet known.

Mets Acquire Eric Hanhold To Complete Neil Walker Trade

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The Mets announced that they’ve acquired minor league right-hander Eric Hanhold from the Brewers as the player to be named later in the August trade that sent second baseman Neil Walker to Milwaukee.

The 23-year-old Hanhold, Milwaukee’s fifth-round selection out of the University of Florida in 2015, spent the 2017 campaign pitching for the Brewers’ Class-A Advanced affiliate. In 30 appearances (three starts, 27 out of the bullpen), he totaled 64 innings with a 3.94 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a whopping 58.6 percent ground-ball rate. Hanhold didn’t rank among the top 30 prospects in a deep Brewers farm system (per MLB.com), but Baseball America wrote at the time of the draft that he featured a 90-94 mph heater that could touch 95 with downhill plane and heavy sink (subscription required and recommended). His go-to breaking pitch is a slider, per that report, though he also broke into pro ball utilizing a changeup as a third pitch.

Hanhold continues a trend for the Mets, who have turned a number of veteran free agent on expiring contracts to a crop of fairly hard-throwing relief prospects that are reasonably close to Major League readiness. Right-handers Jamie Callahan and Jacob Rhame, acquired in the respective Addison Reed and Curtis Granderson trades, have already been added to the big league roster. In addition to Hanhold, Callahan and Rhame, the Mets have added minor league relievers Drew Smith, Stephen Nogosek, Gerson Bautista and Ryder Ryan in trades of Walker, Granderson, Reed, Lucas Duda and Jay Bruce.

To this point, the trade has paid dividends for the Brewers, as Walker has .268/.388/.465 with three home runs and five doubles through his first 85 plate appearances in a Milwaukee uniform.

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