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Mets Close To Signing Max Scherzer

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The Mets are nearing a multi-year contract with Max Scherzer, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi writes (Twitter link).  Based on multiple reports from earlier tonight, Scherzer may be on the verge of signing the largest average annual value contract in baseball history.  SNY’s Andy Martino reported earlier tonight that the Mets were prepared to go beyond $40MM in annual salary, and in Martino’s latest tweet, he writes that New York is offering Scherzer $42MM over either three or four years.  Scherzer is represented by the Boras Corporation.

The news puts an exclamation point on a pitching search that has thus far been fruitless for the Mets, as targets such as Kevin Gausman, Jon Gray, Justin Verlander, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz have all come off the board.  Matz’s deal with the Cardinals even drew some public ire from Mets owner Steve Cohen on Twitter, who accused agent Rob Martin of “unprofessional behavior” in their negotiations.

Those near-misses now fade into the background in the wake of what might be a precedent-setting contract with one of the best pitchers in baseball history.  Scherzer was seen as more likely to sign with a team on the West Coast, as per his preferences when leveraging his no-trade clause to join the Dodgers back at the trade deadline.  As such, teams like the Dodgers, Angels, and Giants were known to be in the hunt for the 37-year-old ace, but instead, Scherzer now seems poised to return to both the East Coast and the NL East itself, after six-plus seasons with the Nationals.

While Scherzer was already a highly accomplished pitcher before he went to Washington, he rose to legendary status after signing his seven-year, $210MM free agent pact with the Nats in the 2014-15 offseason.  Scherzer’s stint in D.C. included two NL Cy Young Awards (to go with his 2013 AL Cy with the Tigers), two no-hitters, a 20-strikeout game, a 2.80 ERA over 1229 innings, and the crowning achievement of the Nationals’ 2019 World Series championship.  All told, a strong case can be made that Scherzer’s deal is the best mega-deal in the history of free agency.

Once the Nationals fell out of contention this summer, Scherzer and Trea Turner were dealt to Los Angeles in a blockbuster swap, and Scherzer continued to pitch well in leading the Dodgers to the NLCS.  The Dodgers were still considered as the favorites to re-sign Scherzer up until just earlier this evening, as the Dodgers’ deep pockets gave them the flexibility to consider the type of huge AAV required to meet Scherzer’s asking price.  MLB Trade Rumors indeed projected Scherzer to set a new AAV standard, predicting him to a land a three-year, $120MM pact to remain in Dodger blue.

Mets May Be Favorite For Max Scherzer

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9:47PM: The Dodgers remain in the mix for Scherzer but are “not the favorites at the moment,” as per Jorge Castillo of The Los Angeles Times.  Indeed, there are “growing indications” that the Mets will sign Scherzer, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, with the New York Post’s Joel Sherman adding that Scherzer and the Mets have made progress towards an agreement.

8:47PM: The Mets have offered Scherzer a multi-year contract, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, that could be a three-year, $120MM pact.

7:16PM: The Mets’ offer to Scherzer has an average annual value of more than $40MM, according to Martino, but the length of the offer isn’t known.  This would represent the largest AAV for any player in baseball history.

6:58PM: The Dodgers “are perceived as the favorite” to sign Scherzer, Heyman tweets.  However, the “Mets’ full attention at [the] moment” is directed at Scherzer.  If Scherzer does sign elsewhere, New York will likely turn its attention towards Gausman as the backup plan.  SNY’s Andy Martino writes that the Mets hope to have either Scherzer or Gausman signed within the next 24 hours.

11:54AM: Max Scherzer is expected to make a decision about where to play next year before the impending lockout, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Heyman lists the Dodgers, Giants, Angels and Mets as some of the teams that are under consideration.

The current Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and MLBPA expires at 11:59 pm ET on December 1, with the general expectation being that a lockout and transaction freeze will then be implemented if no new deal is in place at that time. That has led to a flurry of activity in recent weeks, as many teams, agents and players seemingly prefer to get their business done now as opposed to waiting until some undetermined date when the lockout is finished. It would appear that Scherzer is in that camp.

The starting pitching market has easily been the busiest so far this year, as Eduardo Rodriguez, Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Verlander, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha have all signed in the past two weeks, with Corey Kluber also signing today. Kevin Gausman is also reportedly planning on signing in the coming days.

Scherzer’s free agency is a very unique case, given his elite skill level and relatively older age, compared to the other top names on the free agent market. Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray, the only two hurlers ahead of Scherzer on MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents, are both currently 30 years old, whereas Scherzer turned 37 in July. But given his tremendous track record of success in his career, his prediction was for a much higher salary on an annual basis, $120MM over three years, AAV of $40MM. That would be a new high for AAV across the league, breaking Gerrit Cole’s record of $36MM. Gausman and Ray, on the other hand, were predicted to get to the vicinity of $25MM annually, but each over a longer term than Scherzer.

Scherzer already has an incredible career resume, with 14 seasons of quality work, including eight All-Star appearances, three Cy Young Awards, a World Series championship and various other accolades. In 2021, he logged 179 1/3 innings between the Nationals and Dodgers. His 2.46 ERA was the lowest of his career. His 34.1% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate were both much better than league average. In short, he would be a huge upgrade for any team in the league. But if he’s going to cost around $40MM per year, budgetary concerns will make him a better fit on some teams than others.

The Mets have already been throwing lots of money around, as they recently signed Mark Canha, Starling Marte and Eduardo Escobar. That spending spree has pushed their 2022 payroll to $225MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s already well beyond last year’s opening day payroll of $195MM, which was itself a franchise high, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. To add someone like Scherzer would require pushing their previous boundaries even further.

The Angels also ran a franchise-high payroll on opening day last year, getting up to almost $182MM, per Cot’s. For 2022, they’re currently sitting at $157MM, per Martinez, about $25MM shy of last year. Adding Scherzer would likely involve blowing past that number, as well as changing their previous avoidance of giving out contracts of any kind of length to starting pitchers. As recently explored by MLBTR’s Steve Adams, they haven’t given a starting pitcher a deal longer than one year since Joe Blanton way back in 2012, and even that was just two years.

The Giants have lots of payroll space, but also lots of holes to fill. Cot’s pegs their 2021 opening day number just shy of $150MM, but they’ve been as high as $200MM before, in 2018. They’re currently sitting around $115MM for next year, per Martinez, but still have many areas of need. Their rotation lost four members from 2021, and though they’ve since re-signed Anthony DeSclafani, they still need to replace Alex Wood, Kevin Gausman and Johnny Cueto. (It was reported a week ago that Wood was close to deal to return, though it doesn’t seem to have been finalized yet.) They could also use a right-handed outfielder, having already been connected to Starling Marte and Seiya Suzuki. It seems more likely that they would spread their budget around to multiple arms, but if they want to make a run at a huge name like Scherzer, they have a payroll situation that could make it doable.

As for the Dodgers, whom acquired Scherzer at last year’s trade deadline, their opening day payroll in 2021 was almost $248MM, per Cot’s, easily the highest such number in the league. They’re currently sitting over $205MM for next year, according to Martinez, and could welcome Scherzer back into the fold if they’re willing to spend at similar levels this year.

AL West Notes: Ray, Gray, Angels, Bryant, Mariners, Athletics

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Even after adding Noah Syndergaard, the Angels are still looking to further supplement their pitching staff. In recent days, they’ve been connected in rumors to Steven Matz, before he became a Cardinal, as well as Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer and Marcus Stroman. But Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that Robbie Ray “remains atop their wish list.”

As Rosenthal notes, the Angels’ budget is a big unanswered question surrounding all of this. He lists their 2022 payroll as around $157MM. Adding someone like Ray would likely add more than $25MM to that total. (MLBTR predicted Ray would get a contract of $130MM over five years, an average annual value of $26MM.) That alone would put the Angels above their 2021 opening day payroll of $182MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, with still other roster issues to address. A budget increase would likely be required in order to facilitate a plan involving a contract of that size.

Another question is whether the Angels will deviate from their longstanding avoidance of committing to free agent starting pitchers. As recently explored by MLBTR’s Steve Adams, the Angels haven’t given a starting pitcher a contract longer than a single year since signing Joe Blanton way back in 2012. Ray, who recently turned 30 and won the AL Cy Young Award, would certainly require the Angels to wade into territory they haven’t been in for quite some time.

Another potential target is Jon Gray, as Rosenthal notes the Angels “had interest in Gray at the deadline.” Signing Gray would likely add less to the 2022 payroll than Ray, but probably still require the club to lay out a multi-year deal. MLBTR predicted Gray to get a contract of $56MM over four years, an AAV of $14MM.

More from the AL West…

  • Even after yesterday’s Adam Frazier trade, the Mariners could still add to their position player mix, with Kris Bryant apparently piquing their interest, per Robert Murray of FanSided. With Kyle Seager now a free agent, Seattle figures to have a new third baseman for the first time in quite a while. Bryant’s bat would certainly be welcome in a Seattle lineup that ranked 22nd in runs scored in 2021. Aside from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Bryant has had a wRC+ of at least 123 in each season of his career. In 2021, he hit 25 home runs and slashed .265/.353/.481, producing 3.6 fWAR in the process. However, Seattle may have to be patient with their interest in Bryant, as Murray relays that he’s not expected to sign before the transaction freeze that is reportedly going to be implemented after the CBA expires on Wednesday.
  • It is widely expected that the expiration of the current CBA on December 1 will lead to a transaction freeze, which has teams and agents scrambling to get business done before then. One thing getting pushed to the backburner is managerial hirings, as Ken Rosenthal reports that teams will still be able to hire managers and coaches during a lockout. (Same link as above.) That means that the two clubs currently without managers, the Mets and Athletics, will likely wait until next week to get serious about searching for new skippers.

Latest On Mets, Javier Baez

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The Mets’ interest in re-signing Javier Baez reportedly didn’t end with the club’s agreement with Eduardo Escobar yesterday, yet Baez and the Mets are still “apart on price” in contract talks, according to SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter link).  With Starling Marte and Mark Canha also joining the roster, it would seem as though the Mets are already bolstering the lineup in the event that Baez doesn’t return, and their current focus on pitching upgrades could at least temporarily put an end to their efforts to land Baez or any other position players.

Timing could be an issue with Baez, as there has been speculation that he would prefer to get his next contract finalized before the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1.  (Martino is among those who believes Baez will indeed sign prior to that date.)  If the gap between Baez and the Mets is too large to overcome in the next few days, that could open the door for one of the other teams known to be interested in the shortstop’s services.  The Tigers and Red Sox have been linked to Baez, with the Mariners, Rangers, and Yankees somewhat more speculatively attached to Baez via their interest in the shortstop market as a whole.

Mets Now Focused On Pitching

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9:35 am: The Mets are “not overly optimistic” about signing Scherzer, despite having had conversation with agent Scott Boras, per Andy Martino of SNY (via Twitter). Gausman is their current focus. Martino adds that Gausman could make his signing decision as early as today.

8:49 am: The Mets began their offseason in earnest yesterday, adding a trio of soon-to-be 33-year-old bats to the lineup. Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Canha bring certainty to the beginning of new GM Billy Eppler’s tenure, as well as defensive flexibility and right-handed thump. The additions could be all they need to solidify their lineup (along with Nick Plummer as a potential reserve outfielder), but they don’t address what is arguably the Mets’ biggest need: pitching.

With Noah Syndergaard in Los Angeles and the Steven Matz debacle in the rear-view, pitching remains a priority, writes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Free agent Marcus Stroman fits the bill, but the worm-killing righty has been vocal of late, both about his interest in returning to New York, and about the organization’s apparent focus on other arms, per Stroman himself (via Twitter).

Former Rockies’ right-hander Jon Gray may be one of those other potential targets, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). It’s unclear if Sherman is speculating on fit or reporting team interest, but Gray is a popular name regardless, given his perceived upside as he leaves Colorado. Beyond Gray, Max Scherzer and Kevin Gausman are two of the top arms on the market that the Mets may be eyeing. Either one would be an upgrade for the top of the Mets rotation, which currently has talent, but plenty of injury uncertainty in Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, and Taijuan Walker.

Mets To Sign Starling Marte

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The Mets have capped off one of the single busiest days we’ve seen from a team in recent memory by landing the market’s top center fielder. New York is reportedly in agreement with  Starling Marte on a four-year, $78MM deal, pending a physical. Marte is represented by Rep 1 Baseball.

It’s the culmination of a shocking evening for the Mets, who have also agreed to terms with Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha within the past few hours. Marte was the prize of this offseason’s free agent center field class, easily the top option in an otherwise thin market. A 2016 All-Star and two-time Gold Glove award winner, he’s coming off perhaps the best season of his ten-year big league career. Marte split the 2021 campaign between the Marlins and A’s, posting a .310/.383/.458 line with 12 home runs and an MLB-best 47 stolen bases in just 120 games.

A rib fracture cost Marte more than a month of action between April and May, but he was as productive as ever upon returning. After adjusting for the pitcher-friendly home parks in which he played, Marte’s hitting alone was 34 percentage points better than league average, by measure of wRC+. That’s the best mark of his career, and the speedy outfielder added significantly more offensive value on top of that with incredible baserunning. Not only was he the game’s most prolific base-stealer, he was successful on 90.4% of his attempts — an incredible rate considering opposing pitchers were well aware of the threat he posed every time he reached base.

While Marte might be coming off his best season, he’s been a consistently above-average player for the bulk of his career. His 2021 campaign was the most extreme version of a generally steady skillset: plenty of balls in play, high-end baserunning, and an all-fields approach that makes him difficult to defend. Marte’s .372 batting average on balls in play this past season was one of the league’s higher rates, but he’s consistently had a knack for turning batted balls into hits. So while that BABIP may take a bit of a step back in 2022, it’s likelier he’ll regress closer to his career .344 mark as opposed to the .292 league average.

Marte’s an aggressive hitter, and he’s never had a season with an above-average walk rate. His 8.2% walk percentage in 2021 was a personal best, and his patience tailed off significantly after he was traded from Miami to Oakland midseason. His free-swinging ways also keep his strikeouts down, though, as the Dominican Republic native hasn’t punched out in more than 20% of his plate appearances in a season since 2014. So while Marte doesn’t take many free passes, he nevertheless typically manages solid on-base numbers based on batting averages that regularly push (or, in 2021’s case, exceed) .300.

Defensively, Marte broke in as a left fielder with the Pirates in deference to Andrew McCutchen. One of the game’s top corner outfield defenders, he kicked over to center field in 2018 after Pittsburgh traded McCutchen away. He’s spent the past four seasons playing almost exclusively up the middle, drawing mixed reviews. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged Marte as a bit below-average over each of the past three seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average typically rates him a bit above par with the glove.

However one falls on Marte’s glovework, it seems the Mets view him as a defensive upgrade over incumbent center fielder Brandon Nimmo. Signing Marte will allow New York to kick Nimmo into right field, where he’ll replace free agent Michael Conforto (who almost certainly will wind up elsewhere after today’s transactions). They’ll be joined in the regular outfield by Canha, the culmination of a drastic shakeup on the grass that unfolded within the span of a few hours.

How long Marte will be capable of manning center field remains to be seen. He signed an early-career extension with the Pirates that delayed his first trip to the free agent market by a few seasons. Marte turned 33 years old last month, and it’s possible he’ll need to move to a corner spot at some point over the course of this deal. He’s not yet shown an appreciable drop-off in sprint speed, according to Statcast, and the Mets are counting on his speed and defense holding up for at least the next couple seasons.

A four-year guarantee for a player at this age whose game is so reliant on athleticism isn’t without risk. Between Marte’s great platform season and the lack of obvious center field alternatives, that always seemed likely to be the price a team would have to pay to bring him aboard, though. Entering the offseason, MLBTR projected a four-year, $80MM guarantee and ranked Marte this winter’s #13 free agent.

Marte is the highest-ranked player of this winter’s class to sign to date, and he’s also secured the largest guarantee of any player so far (edging out Eduardo Rodríguez’s deal with the Tigers by $1MM). In the span of a day, the Mets have become the offseason’s most active club — the kind of spending spree fans in Queens envisioned when Steve Cohen purchased the franchise from the Wilpon family last offseason.

The club opened Cohen’s first season as owner with a payroll in the $195MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. It’s clear they’re prepared to shatter that mark in year two, as Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates that spreading the Escobar, Canha and Marte deals evenly would push the Mets’ 2022 commitments to $225MM. The organization’s estimated luxury tax bill, meanwhile, now sits above $229MM.

That’s including projections for arbitration-eligible players, some of whom will be non-tendered or traded. Speculatively speaking, Dominic Smith, J.D. Davis and/or Jeff McNeil could be flipped elsewhere, as today’s series of acquisitions could inhibit the path to everyday reps for that trio (particularly Smith and Davis). Yet it’s also apparent that Cohen is giving general manager Billy Eppler wide leeway to bolster the roster in hopes of snapping a five-year playoff drought, and further moves could be on the horizon. All three of today’s additions are position player pickups, and Eppler is already on record about the team’s desire for rotation help.

While the Mets’ roster is the main story of today’s transactional barrage, their agreement with Marte has trickle-down reverberations for the rest of the league. As the only clear everyday center fielder available in free agency, he’d drawn wide interest over the offseason’s first couple weeks. Teams like the division-rival Phillies, crosstown Yankees, Marlins, Giants, Astros and Rangers had all been rumored to have interest in his services. Having missed out on Marte, a few of those clubs might now have to pivot to the trade market.

Arizona’s Ketel Marte, Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds and Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins stand out as the top potential targets, but it remains to be seen how attainable any of those players may be. The D-Backs have been resistant to moving any of their core controllable stars; the Pirates were reportedly disinclined to consider deals involving Reynolds at the trade deadline, viewing him as a long-term building block. The O’s are at least willing to field offers on Mullins, but it’s not clear that’s anything more than due diligence at this point.

Jon Heyman of the MLB Network first reported the Mets had agreed to terms on a four-year, $78MM guarantee with Marte.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Mets’ Starting Pitching Targets

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9:10 pm: Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweeted this afternoon that the Mets seemed to be prioritizing Max Scherzer and Gausman above Ray at the top of the market, which could align with concerns about forfeiting a top 15 pick by signing a qualified free agent. Heyman notes that the Mets remain interested in Stroman, among others.

1:23 pm: Billy Eppler has only formally been the Mets’ general manager a bit more than a week, but he’s jumped right into the mix and is working to bolster the team’s starting staff. Eppler said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM this week that he’s “engaged in a ton of starting pitching right now” (Twitter link, with audio).

A spotlight was shined on the Mets’ interest in the rotation market this week when owner Steve Cohen voiced frustration with Steven Matz’s representatives after the lefty spurned his former Mets club to sign a four-year deal with the Cardinals. The Mets also attended Justin Verlander’s showcase earlier this offseason, though he has since re-signed with the Astros.

Starting pitching is an obvious need for the Mets, who’ve already watched Noah Syndergaard reject their qualifying offer for a slightly larger guarantee with the Angels. The Mets also don’t know whether free agent Marcus Stroman will return, and they’ve already announced that Carlos Carrasco underwent surgery to remove bone fragments from his pitching elbow. The current timeline has Carrasco returning early in Spring Training, but that issue, combined with David Peterson’s late-July foot surgery and the forearm issue that ended Jacob deGrom’s season in early July, only serves to further muddy the outlook.

The Mets are reportedly loath to sign a free agent who’d require them to surrender a draft pick, as doing so would mean forfeiting their second-highest pick — in this instance, the No. 14 overall selection in the draft. New York also has the No. 11 pick as compensation for not signing top pick Kumar Rocker in the 2021 draft. That might take Robbie Ray off the table, but he’s the lone remaining free agent starting pitcher tied to draft compensation. (The New York Post’s Mike Puma argued this week that even that steep penalty shouldn’t necessarily dissuade the Mets from pursuing Ray.) The remainder of free agents, including Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Jon Gray and Carlos Rodon, among others, can be signed absent of draft-pick considerations.

The trade market, of course, presents myriad other opportunities. One interesting note raised by Eppler — speaking more generally and not specifically with regard to the rotation — was the Mets’ ability and openness to take on a bad contract as a means of effectively purchasing a prospect from another club. Eppler was the Angels’ general manager when they traded 2019 first-round pick Will Wilson to the Giants in order to shed the remainder of Zack Cozart’s contract while dealing with payroll limitations from his prior ownership. Now, Eppler suggests he could be on the opposite side of such a transaction.

“There are avenues to go grab contracts elsewhere and tie prospects to them,” said Eppler. “Some teams are still doing that — most teams are not — but I think the openness and willingness to be able to say, ’We’re going to spend a lot on this player, the contract might be a touch underwater, but we’re going to get this prospect back.’ Exploring those, and trying to push those through a little more — there’s an openness to do that here.”

There are various permutations of that arrangement. The Wilson/Cozart deal, in its simplest form, came down to the Giants effectively purchasing a prospect from the Eppler’s Angels. However, it’s also fairly common for teams to take on an underwater contract when acquiring a more desirable player, providing some salary relief in exchange for surrendering less in terms of prospect capital.

For instance, if the Mets were to make a strong push for one of the Athletics’ available starters (e.g. Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt), offering to take on the remaining $8.25MM owed to outfielder Stephen Piscotty could persuade the A’s to settle for a lesser return. To be clear, that’s just one example — and there’s no indication the A’s are open to that specific scenario. But, that type of arrangement is another in which Eppler could leverage the Mets’ financial might in trade talks.

Whichever route the Mets ultimately take, some kind of upgrade seems inevitable. Their current rotation projects to include deGrom, Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, Tylor Megill and Peterson. It’s not at all a poor quintet if all are healthy, but for a big-market club with postseason aspirations, an additional veteran (or two) to add some dependable innings behind deGrom is a logical pursuit.

Mets To Sign Mark Canha

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The Mets continue to bolster their position player mix, reportedly agreeing to terms with free agent outfielder Mark Canha. It’s reportedly a two-year, $26.5MM guarantee for the CAA Sports client. The deal, which is pending a physical, also contains a 2024 club option. A Bay Area native, Canha had previously spent his entire big league career with the A’s.

Canha becomes the second big addition of the day for the Mets, who also agreed to terms with infielder Eduardo Escobar on a two-year guarantee this afternoon. Canha will step into the club’s outfield mix, with the bulk of that time presumably coming in the corners. While he has experience in all three outfield spots, he’s never rated highly as a center fielder and has logged the plurality of his career innings in left field.

Public metrics like Statcast’s Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved have been mixed on Canha’s corner outfield work over the past few seasons. There’s little question about his bat, though, as Canha has been an above-average hitter in each of the past four years by measure of wRC+.

Since the start of the 2019 season, the Berkeley product owns a .249/.377/.438 line over 1365 plate appearances. While he doesn’t have an eye-catching batting average, the right-handed hitter has walked in a fantastic 13.3% of his trips to the dish. That’s the 14th-highest rate among the 159 players with 1000+ plate appearances in that time. As a result, Canha’s on-base percentage is nearly sixty points higher than the league-wide mark over that span.

That ability to reach base may be Canha’s only standout skill, but it’s a highly valuable one for a Mets’ club that ranked sixteenth with a .321 mark this past season (excluding pitchers). And while Canha may not be elite at anything else, he’s a generally solid all-around player. His strikeout rates over the past few years have typically been a bit lower than the league marks. He owns a .189 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) since the start of 2019, which is slightly above par. Canha has done all that in one of the game’s more pitcher-friendly home environments, and his overall offense over the past three seasons checks in 29 percentage points above league average after accounting for park effects.

Canha was off to an especially promising start in 2021. In 325 plate appearances through June 25, he hit .255/.375/.450 with 11 homers. He suffered a left hip strain that landed him on the injured list at that point, an injury from which he didn’t seem to fully recover. While Canha returned in mid-July, he slumped to a .206/.340/.319 line over his final 300 plate appearances. A glance at his batted ball metrics seems to support that narrative. Canha’s average exit velocity before his IL stint sat at a solid 89 MPH; over his final few months, that mark dropped to 85.5 MPH.

The Mets are clearly of the belief that Canha’s power and overall offensive output will return to peak levels after an offseason to recover. His reported $13.25MM average annual value comes in a touch higher than MLBTR’s two-year, $24MM projected guarantee. Still, it’s a reasonable price for a player of Canha’s caliber and the Mets aren’t taking on much long-term risk. Canha turns 33 years old in February, capping the length of offers teams were willing to put forth.

Canha joins Brandon Nimmo as locks for regular playing time in the New York outfield next season. The Mets have various others who could play their way into the mix. Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis could get bumped from a crowded infield mix into outfield work, while Dominic Smith, Khalil Lee and recent big league signee Nick Plummer could also see action. Still, there are enough moving parts that new GM Billy Eppler and his staff could continue to look for upgrades. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweets that New York still isn’t ruling themselves out of the market for free agent center fielder Starling Marte, for instance.

The specific breakdown of Canha’s deal has yet to be reported, but it’s likely to be another fairly significant addition to the Mets’ 2022 books. If both the Escobar and Canha deals were paid out evenly over the next two seasons, New York’s 2022 payroll would be pushing $207MM in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. The Mets’ estimated luxury tax commitments, meanwhile, are now up around $210MM (both figures including projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players).

It’s not entirely clear how far owner Steve Cohen is willing to push payroll, but it seem very likely they’ll at least be above this past season’s $195MM mark. Both Cohen and Eppler have talked about having ample financial flexibility, and the Mets remain on the hunt for additions to a rotation that has already lost Noah Syndergaard and could see Marcus Stroman depart. It’s already been an active first few days for Eppler in Queens, and it seems likely the Mets will continue to be busy as they try to snap a five-year playoff drought.

As for Canha’s former club, the A’s never seemed especially likely to make a strong run at bringing him back. Oakland is expected to conduct a significant roster overhaul this winter, with ownership seemingly mandating a drastic reduction in payroll. The A’s didn’t make Canha an $18.4MM qualifying offer, and shelling out a multi-year deal at an eight-figure annual salary would’ve registered as a major surprise.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Mets and Canha were nearing an agreement. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported a two-year, $26.5MM guarantee had been agreed upon. Sherman also reported the presence of a 2024 option, which Jon Heyman of the MLB Network specified was a club option.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mets To Sign Eduardo Escobar

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The Mets have made the first big move of Billy Eppler’s tenure as GM, reportedly agreeing to terms with free agent infielder Eduardo Escobar on a two-year, $20MM guarantee. The deal, which is pending a physical, also reportedly contains a club option for 2024. Escobar is a client of DJ Rengifo y Associates.

Escobar gives the Mets cover at three infield positions, as he’s coming off a season in which he logged 100+ innings at each of first base, second base and third base. He also had extended run as a shortstop earlier in his career, but he’s only played two innings there over the past three years. Escobar doesn’t rate as a particularly strong defender anywhere on the diamond, but he’s at least capable of bouncing between a few spots on the dirt.

While that defensive versatility is a nice bonus, the calling card with Escobar has been his bat. He’s been an above-average hitter by measure of wRC+ in each of the last three full seasons, unexpectedly morphing into a power threat late in his career. While he hit just 27 home runs over his first 1620 major league plate appearances, Escobar found another gear in that department in 2017. He hit 21 homers in 499 trips to the dish that season, and he’s knocked between 23 and 35 longballs with an above-average ISO (slugging minus batting average) in all three full campaigns since then.

Escobar has gotten to that increased impact without sacrificing much in the way of contact. He’s kept his strikeout rate right around 20% over the course of his career, around three percentage points below the league mark. His contact and swinging strike rates have also hovered right around average. And the switch-hitting Escobar has fared well from both sides of the plate. Going back to the start of 2018, he’s a .283/.333/.482 batter against left-handed pitching; his .249/.311/.473 mark against righties over that same stretch isn’t as impressive, but it’s still around league average output from his weaker side.

There’s a lot to like about Escobar’s offensive game, although he’s not completely without flaws. The Venezuela native had an awful .212/.270/.335 showing over 222 plate appearances in the truncated 2020 season. He bounced back to offer more typical .253/.314/.472 output between the D-Backs and Brewers in 2021. That clearly erased some doubts about Escobar’s 2020 struggles, but he’ll turn 33 years old in January. And even at his best, Escobar has an aggressive approach that tamps down his walk rate and leads to on-base percentages right around the league average.

Escobar is coming off his first career All-Star selection, but that nod was also influenced by the rule requiring an All-Star rep from every team and his presence on a lackluster Arizona club. He’s more solid regular than star, but Escobar was valued around three wins above replacement by each of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs in 2018, 2019 and 2021. The Mets will hope for more of that same steadiness over the coming seasons, and Escobar’s versatility enables Eppler and his staff to be flexible in building the infield around him.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso are ensconced at shortstop and first base, respectively. Second and third base are less settled, though, with Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis the respective in-house favorites at those spots. Both players can also man the corner outfield, and neither is without question marks. McNeil didn’t make his typical level of offensive impact in 2021, while Davis is a below-average defender at the hot corner. Davis, in particular, has been frequently mentioned as a speculative trade candidate — so much so that he’s even expressed some doubt about whether he’ll be back in Flushing next season. Robinson Canó is also slated to return from a season-long performance-enhancing drug suspension and could factor into the second base mix, although it remains to be seen how much faith a new front office head and manager will have in the 39-year-old veteran.

It’s likely we’ll see some turnover among that group, particularly if the Mets make further additions. New York reportedly has interest in retaining free agent middle infielder Javier Báez, who starred for the team after being acquired from the Cubs at this past summer’s trade deadline. Mike Puma of the New York Post was among those to tweet that the Mets aren’t ruling out a Báez reunion even after landing Escobar.

Of course, retaining Báez is likely to cost far more than today’s agreement. Entering the offseason, MLBTR ranked Escobar the game’s #35 free agent, forecasting him for the two-year, $20MM guarantee he ultimately landed. Báez, on the other hand, is 12th on that list, with an estimated five-year, $100MM price tag. It remains to be seen if the Mets are willing to commit that kind of money in their infield, particularly as they explore different ways to bolster a rotation that already lost Noah Syndergaard and is facing the potential departure of Marcus Stroman.

New York is widely expected to have money to spend this offseason, with Eppler and owner Steve Cohen on record about having available payroll flexibility. Precisely how big a payroll Cohen is willing to run remains unclear, but today’s move looks likely to bring their 2022 commitments already in line with their expenditures this past season. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates the Mets’ player payroll around $184MM before accounting for the Escobar deal.

Non-tenders could open some space to work with, but a $10MM AAV for Escobar will bring New York’s commitments up near the $195MM mark with which they opened 2021, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. The Mets’ luxury tax calculation (which uses deals’ AAV’s as opposed to actual annual salaries) sits around $198MM after accounting for the Escobar agreement, according to Roster Resource. It’s not yet known where the threshold for luxury tax penalization will sit in 2022, as that’s to be determined in upcoming collective bargaining negotiations.

Jon Heyman of the MLB Network first reported that Escobar and the Mets were in agreement on a two-year contract. Joel Sherman of the New York Post was first to report the $20MM guarantee as well as the presence of a 2024 club option.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Marcus Stroman Drawing Widespread Interest

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The free agent starting pitching market has gotten off to a fast start, but there hasn’t yet been any movement among the top tier of arms. There’s surely robust interest in each of the class’ top starters, particularly given that the market for mid-tier options has already proven quite strong. Some clarity has emerged on the bidding for one of those top hurlers: right-hander Marcus Stroman.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports (Twitter link) that the Red Sox, Giants, Cubs, Angels and incumbent Mets are among the clubs with interest in Stroman. The Angels were already reported to be suitors, but the other four teams represent newly-known entrants into his market. Jon Morosi of MLB.com, meanwhile, adds the Mariners as another potential suitor for Stroman.

No one in that group is particularly surprising, as each of that quintet has been known to be seeking starting pitching. The Giants, Cubs and Angels have all made one or more notable rotation pickups already, but each reportedly remained in the bidding for Steven Matz even after landing other starters. The Red Sox and Mets were also known Matz suitors, and they’re both facing rotation uncertainty this winter. Boston has already seen Eduardo Rodríguez depart, while the Mets have lost Noah Syndergaard and would need to replace Stroman were he to sign elsewhere.

Stroman’s a sensible target for any team looking to bolster its rotation. The 30-year-old has been a reliable source of above-average innings for essentially the entirety of his career. He’s started 32+ games and exceeded 175 innings in four of the past five full seasons, with his 19 starts and 102 1/3 frames in 2018 the lone exception. (Stroman also opted out of the shortened 2020 campaign). Going back to the start of 2016, he ranks fifteenth in innings pitched, consistently shouldering a heavy workload in spite of his slight frame.

Over the course of his career, Stroman typically hasn’t had an approach geared towards missing many bats. He’s coming off a career-best 11.6% swinging strike rate, though, a mark that’s a hair above the 10.9% league average for starters. Generating an average or better amount of whiffs would be more of an ancillary bonus than anything, as Stroman’s calling cards are plus strike-throwing and plenty of grounders.

The sinkerballer has induced grounders on over half the balls in play against him in each season of his career, routinely surpassing 60% ground-ball rates during his time with the Blue Jays. His 50.8% rate in 2021 was a career-low, but that figure was still eight points above the league mark. That consistency in inducing ground-ball contact has allowed Stroman to remain mostly impervious to longballs, as he’s never allowed even one homer per nine innings in a season during his big league career.

Stroman played out the 2021 campaign with the Mets after accepting the club’s qualifying offer last winter. Players can’t be tagged with a QO more than once in their careers, so Stroman hit the market this winter unencumbered. Signing clubs won’t have to forfeit a draft choice to land the former first-round pick, and the Mets wouldn’t receive any compensation were he to depart.

Between Stroman’s consistently strong track record and the lack of a QO, he profiles as one of the more appealing options in this winter’s class. Stroman doesn’t boast the swing-and-miss stuff of some of this offseason’s other top options, but he’s also proven capable of thriving in spite of below-average strikeout numbers. The Duke University product has posted an ERA under 4.00 in four of his six seasons with 100+ innings pitched, and his 3.02 mark in 2021 was a personal best. Entering the offseason, MLBTR placed Stroman eleventh on the Top 50 free agents, forecasting a five-year, $110MM guarantee.

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