Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Reds Rumors

Should The Reds Trade Any Of Their High-End Starters?

By | at

It wasn’t an encouraging start to the winter for Reds fans. After trading Tucker Barnhart and waiving Wade Miley in moves that amounted to little more than salary dumps, general manager Nick Krall famously spoke of “aligning … payroll to our resources.” That hinted at a lack of forthcoming additions, and indeed, the Reds have yet to sign a free agent to a major league deal this offseason.

That said, the Reds haven’t yet orchestrated a sell-off. Barnhart’s a well-respected veteran backstop, but Tyler Stephenson is ready to assume an everyday role. It’s harder to defend cutting Miley, controllable via $10MM club option and coming off a 163-inning, 3.37 ERA season. Yet the soft-tossing Miley is always walking a fine line relying on weak, ground-ball contact. If his run prevention regresses closer to last season’s 4.52 SIERA, that option price would be more reasonable than an immense bargain.

Krall predictably didn’t offer specifics about the franchise’s payroll target for 2022. Currently, they’re projected for $115MM in player expenditures, including estimated salaries for arbitration-eligible players (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource). That’s a touch shy of last year’s season-opening $122MM mark (according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts). Perhaps the Reds have already “aligned” their payroll by parting with Barnhart and Miley and letting Nick Castellanos hit free agency.

If the Reds were either looking to cut costs or add some young talent to the organization, the most straightforward way to do so would be by further subtracting from the rotation. Cincinnati’s top three starters — Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Sonny Gray — are all under club control through 2023 (assuming free agency trajectory isn’t affected by the new collective bargaining agreement). And unlike some other Reds with notable salaries (i.e. Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suárez) whom the Reds might want to trade, the rotation members should be in high demand around the league.

Luis Castillo

Castillo, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $7.6MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season, tossed 187 2/3 innings with a 3.98 ERA last year. That was his highest mark in three years, but the 29-year-old found his footing after a tough start. He posted a 2.73 ERA from June onwards, with his generally excellent combination of strikeouts (26%) and grounders (59.9%).

Simply ignoring the first two months of the season, when Castillo had an awful 7.22 ERA and subpar 19.3% strikeout percentage, is obviously simplistic. Yet the right-hander’s three-year track record is excellent, and he possesses a fantastic arsenal. Owner of one of baseball’s best changeups and a fastball that averages north of 97 MPH, Castillo seems the most likely of the Reds starters to offer top-of-the-rotation production over the next two years. He’s been the subject of trade rumors in each of the last two offseasons, but reports about the team’s willingness to make him available have varied.

Tyler Mahle

As with Castillo, it’s not clear how willing the Reds seem to be to trade Mahle. He hasn’t been the subject of as many rumors as his top rotation mates this winter. Yet there’d be plenty of appeal if Cincinnati were amenable to moving him. At 27, he’s the youngest of the Reds top trio of starters. Projected for a $5.6MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration year, he’s likely to be the most affordable. And one could make the case he’s coming off the best 2021 campaign of the three.

Mahle’s 3.75 ERA was lower than either of Castillo’s or Gray’s marks. His 27.7% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk percentage bettered the others’ respective figures. He’s not the elite ground-ball guy those others are, but Mahle looks to have made the leap to quality mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons.

Mahle misses bats with both his mid-90s heater and his two secondary pitches — a cutter-slider and a split. The development of the latter offering has proven especially useful in helping the right-hander overcome platoon troubles, as he leans somewhat frequently on the split when facing left-handed batters. After giving up a massive .290/.384/.547 line when at a platoon disadvantage through his first three MLB seasons, he’s held southpaws to a pitiful .194/.280/.306 mark since the start of 2020.

Sonny Gray

Gray is playing out the 2022 campaign on a $10.667MM contract, and he’s controllable for 2023 via $12.5MM club option. That makes him the costliest of the Reds starters, yet it’s still an obvious bargain for a pitcher who has been as effective as Gray has since landing in Cincinnati.

The right-hander has posted above-average strikeout and ground-ball marks in all three of his seasons with the Reds. Gray may not have quite as pristine of control as Castillo or Mahle possess, but his walk rates aren’t all that concerning. Last year’s 4.19 ERA is more fine than great, but he posted respective 2.87 and 3.70 marks over the two prior seasons. And the 32-year-old Gray was among the sport’s best pitchers at suppressing hard contact, with the Reds mediocre team defense perhaps explaining a bit of a gap between his actual ERA and estimators like FIP, SIERA and xERA — all of which pegged his performance between 3.25 and 3.99.

On the surface, Gray looks like the pitcher the Reds might be most willing to make available. Trading him would knock more money off the books than would a Castillo or Mahle deal, perhaps freeing some room for the front office to address needs in the outfield and/or bullpen. Yet Castillo or Mahle would probably pull stronger returns if they were moved. Trading Gray alone be something of a half-measure: not enough to bring in an influx of impact young talent, while further weakening a roster that finished marginally above .500 last season and has lost or is likely to lose both Miley and Castellanos.

Krall and his staff seem to be in a difficult spot, overseeing a roster that looks a bit shy of contention but without the financial backing to fix its most glaring deficiencies. How they choose to proceed with their trio of high-end starters is yet to be determined, but there’s a compelling argument to move any of the group, as well as a sound case for keeping the entire rotation intact. After all, with two years of control apiece, they should each still be in demand (barring injury) if the team is sputtering by next summer’s trade deadline.

We’ll let MLBTR readers weigh in on the situation. How should the Reds proceed coming out of the lockout?

(poll link for app users)

 

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/11/22

By | at

The latest minor league moves from around the sport…

  • The Reds announced that infielder Juniel Querecuto has been signed to a minor league deal, and invited to the team’s big league Spring Training camp.  A veteran of 10 pro seasons, Querecuto reached the majors for a four-game cup of coffee with the Rays in 2016.  After six seasons in Tampa’s organization, Querecuto moved onto the Giants’ Triple-A team in 2017 before joining the Diamondbacks for four years.  Beginning his career as a utility infielder, Querecuto has branched out to more of a super-utility type, getting action as a first baseman and at all three outfield positions since 2019, though the majority of his time has still been spent as a shortstop, second baseman, and third baseman.  Known more for his defensive versatility than his bat throughout his career, the 29-year-old Querecuto did hit .301/.354/.489 with 13 homers over 396 PA with Triple-A Reno last season.

Jeff Pickler Withdraws Name From Consideration For Mets’ Bench Coach

By | at

Jeff Pickler has removed his name from consideration for the Mets’ bench coach position, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. The Reds’ planning and outfield coach will stay with Cincinnati for 2022.

Pickler had recently been identified as one of the candidates for the position, as the Mets have been actively filling out their coaching staff in recent days. The Mets are behind most other teams in putting their coaching staff together, as they also had to make a front office hire that occupied the early part of their offseason. They eventually hired Billy Eppler as general manager in mid-November, but he had to focus on free agency with the ticking clock of the looming lockout.

Once the lockout was implemented in December and big league transactions were frozen, the club shifted their attention towards the coaching staff, with the majority of the crew from 2021 not being retained. Buck Showalter was the first piece of the puzzle, being hired as manager on December 20th. After a lull in activity around the holidays, the Mets have reportedly added first base coach Wayne Kirby, third base coach Joey Cora and hitting coach Eric Chavez in recent days.

The bench coach position remains an ongoing matter, with today’s news focused on who won’t be taking the position. Earlier today, it was reported that the Padres denied the Mets the opportunity to interview quality control coach Ryan Flaherty for the position, which would have seen him reunite with Showalter, his manager from his playing days in Baltimore.

Pickler was selected by the Brewers in the 11th round of the 1998 draft. He spent eight years in the minors for the Brewers, Rangers and Rockies before transitioning to scouting. After stints as a scout with the Diamondbacks and Padres, he joined the Dodgers in 2014 as special assistant in professional scouting and player development. The Twins hired him as a coach for 2017, with Pickler joining the Reds two years later.

It was recently reported that the Mets had a “headline-grabbing hire” lined up for their bench coach job, but that turned out to be the aforementioned Chavez, who actually settled on the hitting coach position.

Reds Had Interest In Andrew Heaney

By | at

This offseason has largely been about subtraction for the Reds so far, with Tucker Barnhart getting traded to the Tigers, Wade Miley going to the Cubs on waivers and Michael Lorenzen joining the Angels via free agency. Nick Castellanos also opted out of the remainder of his contract and, though he remains a free agent, seems unlikely to re-sign in Cincinnati. There have also been numerous rumors swirling about teams around the league trying to pry Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Sonny Gray away, as the club is apparently looking to “align our payroll to our resources“, as general manager Nick Krall phrased it.

However, there was at least one addition that the club considered prior to the lockout, as Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that they were interested in Andrew Heaney before he signed with the Dodgers. Whether the club actively pursued Heaney isn’t known, but the interest is noteworthy, especially given the fact that they haven’t signed a free agent to a major league deal yet this offseason.

Heaney took the final spot on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents, with a prediction for a one-year, $6MM deal. It’s possible that Cincinnati’s interest was in that range, as he ultimately landed with the Dodgers for slightly more, a one-year deal worth $8.5MM. With Gray set to make almost $11MM in 2022 and Castillo likely getting close to $8MM in arbitration, perhaps they viewed Heaney as a low-cost way of supplementing the rotation after losing Miley and maybe another starter.

After six straight losing seasons from 2014 to 2019, the Reds emerged from their recent rebuilding effort in 2020, going 31-29 and qualifying for the expanded postseason. 2021 was another winning effort, as the club went 83-79, but that wasn’t enough to qualifying for the postseason. Despite that progress, the front office seems to be stuck in an awkward position where they don’t want to start another rebuild so quickly but don’t have the ability to make a significant addition to the payroll.

Exactly how they plan to walk this fine line isn’t yet known, but Heaney would have been a low-cost, high-reward gamble for them. He has long tantalized teams with excellent strikeout and walk numbers, but disappointing results largely caused by the long ball. In 2021, for instance, he gave up 29 home runs and had an ERA of 5.83, but a strikeout rate of 26.9% and walk rate of 7.3%, both of those being better than league average. Given their apparently limited resources, it makes sense for the Reds to be drawn to such a gamble. However, their home field of Great American Ball Park is considered to be quite hitter-friendly, especially when it comes to home runs. It would have been challenging for Heaney to finally reach his full potential in that environment. But given their financial situation, perhaps those are the types of gambles the club will be trying to make after the lockout.

Scout Bruce Manno Retires

By | at

  • In regards to the bench coach role, the Mets are now aiming towards hiring “a younger, analytics-driven individual,” Thosar reports.  It will make for an interesting complement to veteran manager Buck Showalter, providing something of an old school/new school approach between Showalter and his next chief lieutenant.  Reds game planning/outfield coach Jeff Pickler is one of the names under consideration for the Mets’ bench coach job, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link).
  • Reds scout Bruce Manno is retiring after close to 45 years in pro baseball, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  Manno has been a familiar face in many front offices over the years, working with the Blue Jays, Brewers, Orioles, Cardinals, Braves, and Reds in various capacities, including working as the Cards’ director of player development during the club’s 2006 World Series season.  Manno worked as an assistant GM with both the Brewers (1987-94) and Braves (2007-14), and his time in Atlanta helped pave the way towards their 2021 title.  Freddie Freeman was drafted, developed, and extended during Manno’s tenure, and Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies joined the organization on their initial amateur contracts.  (Manno discussed the Acuna/Albies deals with David O’Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution back in 2018, with Manno praising the work of then-director of international scouting Johnny Almarez).  We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Manno on a fine career, and we wish him the best in his retirement.

NL Notes: Knebel, Phillies, Mets Coaches, Reds

By | at

In a piece for the The Athletic, Matt Gelb recaps the frantic lead-up to the Phillies’ signing of right-handed reliever Corey Knebel, which included an unfortunately timed trip to Mexico and a number of insightful quotes from Knebel himself. One particular quote of note is that Knebel and Philadelphia “entertained” a two-year contract before ultimately settling on a one-year, $10MM guarantee.

While Knebel is the presumptive closer for his new club at this time, neither he nor president Dave Dombrowski have confirmed as such. Accordingly, Knebel says he’s using the personal risk of a one-year contract as motivation to regain the form that made him one of the game’s most dominant arms from 2017-2018. As the “$10MM” portion of his latest contract indicates, however, Knebel may not need much more motivation to regain elite status at the back of a pen. After all, a newfound reliance on his curveball led to the right-hander spinning 25 plus innings of 2.45 ERA ball with the Dodgers last season.

While health and its corresponding impact on effectiveness is always a question with pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery, the Phillies front office was surely pleased by Knebel demonstrating some of the best control he’s had in his career. Further dampening health concerns were Knebel’s strikeout abilities, which were down during the season from his own lofty 2017-2018 heights, but were still solidly above average and exploded in the playoffs— in 5+ innings the right-hander struck out 11 batters against just one walk.

In other news out of the National League…

  • The Mets have been one of baseball’s busiest teams during the lockout thus far, and have been the runaway winner in activity over the past 48 hours. The team already reeled in its biggest coaching fish of the offseason back in December when they hired Buck Showalter, but they have since announced plans to hire a number of other coaches around him. Among the recent coaches set to join the Mets coaching staff are first base coach Wayne Kirby, third base coach Joey Cora, and hitting coach Eric Chávez, who was successfully wooed away from the crosstown Yankees. Mike Puma of the New York Post explains (via Twitter) the reason none of these coaching additions have yet been made official. Puma states that every prospective hire is receiving a “very thorough” background check, which is likely delaying an official announcement from the club on this trio of reported coaches. It remains to be seen if this thoroughness is delaying the hire of the team’s alleged high-profile mystery bench coach as well. That the club is being methodical in its search for new club personnel should register as a shock to no one, with several high-profile members enjoying unceremonious ends to their New York tenures in recent years.
  • Bob Nightengale reports that the Reds have signed center fielder Lorenzo Cedrola to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. A signee out of Venezuela with some prospect pedigree, Cedrola was traded by Boston to Cincinnati back in 2018 for international bonus pool space. The 23-year-old will now look to continue his work in the Reds farm system, where he’s fresh off his first Triple-A promotion and an overall .315/.354/.458 season. His 10 home runs across 115 games last season easily represent a career high, though Cedrola’s 10 for 18 showing on the basepaths could use some work if he’s to crack the Reds’ uncertain outfield mix in 2022.

Reds Hire Juan Samuel As Minors Hitting Instructor

By and | at

  • The Reds have hired sixteen-year big-league veteran Juan Samuel as a minor league hitting instructor, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, though his precise role has not yet been announced. Since retiring, the three-time All-Star has held a number of positions, including as a major league base coach and, briefly, as interim manager of the Orioles following the 2010 mid-season firing of Dave Trembley. In addition to his long and productive playing career, Samuel is remembered as the Mets’ return in the 1989 deal that sent Lenny Dykstra and Roger McDowell, cornerstones of the 1986 World Series champs, to the Phillies.

Reds Sign Ben Lively To Minors Deal

By | at

The Reds have signed right-hander Ben Lively to a minor league deal. Lively, who’s seen action in parts of three big-league seasons, returns to the organization that drafted him out of UCF in the fourth round of the 2013 draft before shipping him to the Phillies in exchange for Marlon Byrd following the 2014 season. The deal includes an invitation to spring training.

In limited big-league action with the Phillies and Royals, Lively has posted serviceable numbers, covering 120 innings  across 26 appearances (20 starts) with a 4.80 ERA (5.03 FIP). The great majority of those innings came with the Phillies in 2017, when he posted a 4.26 ERA (4.97 FIP) across 15 starts (88 2/3 IP) — good for an almost exactly league-average ERA+ of 101.

Two months after a June 2019 trade to the Diamondbacks 2019 season (for whom he never appeared in a big-league game), Lively crossed the Pacific to pitch for the KBO’s Samsung Lions, for whom he also posted solid-if-unspectacular numbers. In parts of three seasons in South Korea, the righty recorded a 4.14 ERA in 202 1/3 innings across 36 starts before a shoulder injury cut his 2021 season short.

Though only one of what’s likely to be a slew of low-cost arms given a shot to earn a spot on the Reds pitching staff, Lively may well arrive in Arizona with a real chance to crack the Opening Day roster in Cincinnati. Though the club has a strong top-of-the-rotation trio of Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, and Tyler Mahle in place at present, GM Nick Krall was reported to have been willing to engage in trade talks on all three ahead of the lockout. It’s unclear which, or how many, of the three will ultimately leave the Queen City, but the club has made no secret of its desire to cut payroll, suggesting that at least one will likely end up on the move.

Still, even in the unlikely event that all three stay in Cincy, there’s likely to be some significant spring competition at the back end of the Reds rotation. Vladimir Gutierrez, who had a solid 22-start debut for the Reds in 2021, likely has the inside track on one job, but the other would likely be open to Lively, fellow minor-league signee Brandon Bailey, and prospects Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Reiver Sanmartin.

Trying To Find Hidden Gems With BB/K

By | at

A few days ago, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked back on the trade that sent LaMonte Wade Jr. to the Giants. At the time, Wade had a fairly unimpressive track record, but did have a knack for generating walks and limiting strikeouts. Whether that was what piqued the Giants’ interest or not, it worked out for them, as Wade had a nice season in 2021. His strikeout rate shot up, but he still hit 18 home runs and slashed .253/.326/.482, for a wRC+ of 117.

A young hitter’s command of the strike zone can often be a helpful indicator of future success, like it was in Wade’s case. Mookie Betts was never at the top of prospect lists, as he was on Baseball America’s Top 100 only once, coming in at #75 prior to the 2014 season. But looking back on his strikeout and walk rates in the minors, perhaps it should have been more obvious that he was a superstar in the making. At Low-A, A-Ball, High-A and Double-A, he posted a BB/K above 1.00, meaning he walked more than he struck out. At Triple-A in 2014, it was 0.87, still very impressive. Jose Ramirez never appeared on Baseball America’s Top 100, and even just among Cleveland prospects, he peaked at #9 in 2014. He also kept his BB/K rate around 1.00 for most of his time in the minors, and has carried that forward into the majors as well.

That’s not to say that every minor leaguer with a strong BB/K rate will turn into a superstar like Betts or Ramirez. Jace Peterson put up solid BB/K rates as well, but has settled in as an average-ish role player. Austin Barnes also had a keen eye throughout the minors, before becoming a solid second string catcher. But those players can still be plenty useful for a big league club. Can we find the next hidden gem of this type? Let’s sniff around. Here are some standout BB/K numbers from the minors in 2021.

Alejo Lopez, infielder, Reds, BB/K at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021: 1.41

A 27th round selection of the Reds in 2015, Lopez had never appeared on the club’s top 30 prospects list at Baseball America prior to this season. (He would eventually crack the midseason rankings, coming in at #21.) He had posted strong strikeout and walk numbers in rookie ball action in 2016 and 2017, putting up a BB/K above 1.00 in each year. In 2018 and 2019, he played in A-ball and High-A, with his BB/K slipping to around 0.50 in each year. After the pandemic canceled the minor leagues in 2020, Lopez hit the ground running in 2021. In 92 games between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .320/.401/.447, with a walk rate of 11% and strikeout rate of just 7.8%, leading to a huge BB/K of 1.41. He got called up for his MLB debut and didn’t hit much, but in a tiny sample size of 23 plate appearances. He’ll turn 26 in May.

Isaac Paredes, infielder, Tigers, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.19.

In 2018, Paredes reached Double-A for the first time and put up a BB/K rate of 0.86 in just 39 games. In 2019, he returned to Double-A and played in 127 games, improving his rate to 0.93. In 2020, the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues, but Paredes made his big league debut. The transition to MLB wasn’t terribly smooth as he hit .220 over 34 games, with a BB/K of just 0.33. In 2021, he spent the bulk of the year at Triple-A, playing 72 games there, hitting .265/.397/.451 while walking in an incredible 17.8% of his plate appearances and striking out just 14.9% of the time, for a BB/K ratio of 1.19. He also got into 23 more MLB games and had a BB/K rate of 0.91 there. Paredes has appeared on the backend of Baseball America’s Top 100, coming in at #94 before the 2019 season and #100 before 2020. He’s still quite young, as he won’t turn 23 until February.

Steven Kwan, outfielder, Guardians, BB/K at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021: 1.16

Kwan was selected by Cleveland in the fifth round of the 2018 draft and got into 17 games that year in the lower levels of their system. In 2019, he played 123 games at High-A, with a BB/K of 1.04. After missing out on 2020 due to the pandemic, he spent 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A, playing 77 games in total and logging 341 plate appearances. Overall, he hit .328/.407/.527, along with a walk rate of 10.6% and strikeout rate of 9.1%, winding up with a final BB/K of 1.16. He’s never been on Baseball America’s prospects for Cleveland, though he did just barely crack FanGraphs’ list a year ago, taking the final spot on a list of 49. The Guardians added him to their 40-man roster in November.

Tyler White, infielder, Blue Jays, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.10

A 33rd round draft pick of the Astros in 2013, White has never been viewed as a top prospect. He only appeared on Baseball America’s top 30 Houston Astros’ prospect list once, coming in at #16 back in 2016. But he has always had a good eye for the strike zone. His first crack at Double-A was 59 games in 2015, where his BB/K was 1.20. In 57 games at Triple-A that same year, it was 1.11. He made his MLB debut the following year and appeared in parts of four seasons from 2016 to 2019. He showed some promise with the bat in 2017 and 2018 but floundered in 2019 before joining the SK Wyverns of the KBO for 2020. In 2021, he signed a minors deal with the Blue Jays, playing 105 games and hitting .292/.424/.476. His walk rate was 18.1% and his strikeout rate was 16.5%, for a final BB/K rate of 1.10. Despite that tremendous year at the plate, he never got the call to the big leagues, likely due to his limited positional flexibility. Other than one game at third base, he was exclusively a first baseman or designated hitter in 2021. Now 31, he signed a minor league deal with the Brewers last month.

Cooper Hummel, utility, Brewers/Diamondbacks, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.03

Hummel was selected by the Brewers in the 16th round of the 2016 draft and never appeared on Baseball America’s top 30 prospects for the club. In 2021, he started the year at Triple-A and got into 46 games for the Nashville Sounds, racking up an incredible BB/K of 1.58. He was flipped to the Diamondbacks as part of the Eduardo Escobar trade and got into 46 more games after that. Although his BB/K was just 0.63 after the trade, he still finished the year at 1.03 overall. Oh, and he hit .353/.429/.575 after the deal. Now 27, the Diamondbacks added Hummel to their 40-man roster in November.

Jonah Bride, utility, Athletics, BB/K at Double-A in 2021: 1.00

Bride was a 23rd round selection of the Athletics in 2018. He hit well in his first couple of minor league seasons, but took a step forward in 2021 in terms of plate discipline. His walk rate and strikeout rate were equal at 17.1%, as he had exactly 57 of each in 334 Double-A plate appearances. He’s never been on Baseball America’s top 30 Oakland prospects, but FanGraphs just placed him 17th in the organization, noting that he recently started an attempt to convert from an infielder into a catcher. He was added to Oakland’s 40-man roster in November.

The Reds Have A Eugenio Suarez Problem

By | at

Reds GM Nick Krall kicked off the offseason by stating that “going into 2022, we must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.”  While subsequent reports have indicated that the Reds aren’t entirely tearing things down, the team has already parted ways with such veterans as Wade Miley and Tucker Barnhart, and combined with last winter’s trade of Raisel Iglesias to the Angels, that marks three notable players given away for virtually nothing in salary-dump fashion.

Much to the dismay of Cincinnati fans, the gradual increase in spending that followed six losing seasons from 2014-19 now appears to be over.  That rebuild resulted in winning records in both 2020 and 2021, but only a two-game appearance (without a run scored) in the expanded 2020 postseason to show for the Reds’ efforts.  It is safe to say that the pandemic is in large part to blame for ownership’s apparent decision to limit spending, and yet it also can’t be ignored that some of the higher-paid members of the Reds roster have underachieved — a critical setback for any mid-market team.

Case in point, Eugenio Suarez.

The third baseman’s seven-year, $66MM extension in March 2018 was one of the early signposts that the Reds were getting ready to open the pocketbook and start building the core of their next contender.  The extension covered Suarez’s three remaining arbitration years and up to five of his free agent years (Cincinnati has a $15MM club option on his services for 2025, with a $2MM buyout).

Suarez earned the extension after posting some solid offensive and defensive numbers over his first three seasons in the Queen City, and the Reds’ decision to lock him up looked even wiser considering how Suarez performed in 2018-19.  Over his age 26-27 seasons, Suarez kicked up his production to another level, hitting .277/.362/.550 with 83 home runs over 1268 plate appearances, good for a 132 wRC+ and a 133 OPS+.  Suarez received down-ballot MVP attention in both seasons, made the All-Star Game in 2018, and cracked 49 homers in 2019 to tie the second-highest single-season mark in Reds franchise history.

It certainly seemed as if Suarez was set to be one of the cornerstones of a now-loaded Reds lineup that added the likes of Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas in the 2019-20 offseason.  However, Suarez simply hasn’t been the same since, and there are some unwelcome signs that 2018 and 2019 may represent his peak.

Some red flags even emerged during that 49-homer season.  Suarez’s .351 xwOBA was well below his .381 wOBA, and his strikeout rate ballooned to 28.5%, after Suarez struck out at only a 23.8% rate over his first five MLB seasons.  As per Statcast, 2019 also marked the lowest line drive (24%) and grounder (36%) rates of Suarez’s career, as he sustained the big increase in his fly-ball rate that began in 2018.  Statcast’s “Expected Home Runs” data only covers the last three seasons, so while Suarez’s 2018 numbers can’t be analyzed, the xHR metric indicates that Suarez “should” have hit only 39.1 homers in 2019.

The other glaring trend was Suarez’s evolution into being a dead pull hitter.  Since the start of the 2019 season, the right-handed hitting Suarez has hit the ball to left field 50.5% of the time, the fourth-highest pull rate of any qualified hitter in baseball.  While teams increased their shift usage against Suarez in 2019, it didn’t hamper his offense too much thanks to that sky-high 29.5% homer rate.  In fact, Suarez had a whopping .423 wOBA against the shift in 2019.

The shifts kept coming, however, with teams shifting against Suarez 69.6% of the time in 2020 and 55.2% of the time in 2021.  With Suarez’s fly balls leaving the yard at a more moderate rate and his grounders now getting gobbled by opposing defenses, Suarez had only a .221 BABIP in 2020-21, contributing to that big dip in his offensive numbers.

Suarez followed up his big 2019 with almost exactly average (100 OPS+, 101 wRC+) production in 2020, as he batted .202/.312/.470 with 15 homers in 231 PA.  After only a .504 OPS over his first 82 PA, Suarez had a .928 OPS in his last 149 trips to the plate, so the thinking was that Suarez might have just had a slow start.  The third baseman also underwent surgery to remove some loose cartilage from his right shoulder in January 2020, though Suarez was expected to have been ready to go by sometime in April if the season had started on time.

That shoulder surgery stands out as an obvious demarcation line between Suarez’s peak production and his decline over the last two years.  However, given the statistical question marks that began even in 2019, injuries can’t be considered the root cause for Suarez’s struggles.  As his rough 2021 season played out, all of the warning signs that stood out in 2019-20 snowballed, resulting in what was essentially a replacement-level season.  Baseball Reference gave Suarez a subpar -0.7 bWAR, while Fangraphs’ calculations were only a little more generous, calculating Suarez at 0.6 fWAR.

Suarez batted .198/.286/.428 over 574 plate appearances, hitting 31 home runs but contributing only an 80 OPS+/85 wRC+.  His 9.8% walk rate was his worst since the 2016 season, and he had only a .301 wOBA against the shift.  Really, considering Suarez had only a .313 wOBA when teams weren’t shifting on him, his pull hitting was less of an issue than the fact that he wasn’t making much hard contact at all.  While Suarez still had one of the league’s better barrel rates, his 39.8% hard-hit ball rate was below the league average.

The strikeouts also just kept coming.  There has always been a lot of swing-and-miss in Suarez’s game, yet among qualified batters, only Javier Baez and Wil Myers have a higher strikeout rate than Suarez’s 29.1% figure since the start of the 2019 season.

If these problems at the plate weren’t bad enough, Suarez’s defense is now also a question mark, though that could be more due to the Reds’ roster construction.  With the team unable to land a shortstop in the 2020-21 offseason, the Reds planned to move Suarez to shortstop last year, thus moving Moustakas into the third base role and breakout rookie Jonathan India getting a shot at the everyday second base job.  Suarez began his career as a shortstop and lost 15 pounds last winter in preparation to move back into his old position, and yet the defensive problems that triggered his move to third base in the first place continued.

Pretty much all of Suarez’s time at shortstop came in the season’s first six weeks, as he struggled enough that Cincinnati quickly pivoted away from the experiment.  With Moustakas spending a big chunk of the season on the injured list, Suarez was able to move back to third base, with India enjoying a Rookie Of The Year campaign at second base and Kyle Farmer turning in a respectable performance as the regular shortstop.

Heading into 2022, it’s hard to know what to expect from Suarez.  If the NL adopts the designated hitter as part of the new collective bargaining agreement, it will alleviate some of the infield logjam that stemmed from the Moustakas signing, but Suarez getting time at DH doesn’t help matters if he still can’t hit.  It could be that some mental pressure might be lifted for Suarez if he doesn’t have to worry about a position switch, and yet defensive metrics have illustrated that Suarez has been an average third baseman at best for the last four years.

For a Reds team now looking to trim payroll, Suarez’s $11MM salary in each of the next three seasons (and the $2MM guaranteed via his club option) stands out as an expenditure that the club would probably prefer to not have on the books.  Finding a suitor for Suarez in the wake of his 2021 down year won’t be easy, as teams may now see Suarez only as a one-dimensional power bat who doesn’t make much contact, and whose production can be kept in check by the shift.

It’s worth noting that Suarez drew some trade interest last offseason, with the Nationals in particular exploring a deal, though Washington wasn’t open to parting with its top pitching prospects.  In hindsight, last winter may have been the Reds’ best opportunity to score a solid trade package in return for Suarez, as he still carried enough long-term value that Cincinnati wouldn’t have moved him in a salary dump.

The equation may have changed now, as the Reds might need to attach a prospect as a sweetener for another club to eat a bigger chunk of Suarez’s salary, or Krall might have to arrange some kind of a trade for another team’s unwanted contract.  The Reds could also conceivably try to package Suarez along with one of their better veteran trade chips (i.e. Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray), but giving up one of those pitchers essentially just to get Suarez’s salary moved wouldn’t be an optimal way to maximize return on a top trade asset.

Needless to say, a return to form for Suarez would be an enormous boon for Cincinnati next year, as Suarez would then essentially be replacing Castellanos (who is still a free agent but unlikely to re-sign given his big asking price) as another big bat alongside India, Joey Votto, and Jesse Winker.  Since he doesn’t turn 31 until July, Suarez isn’t exactly over the hill, and players have rebounded from far worse declines by making changes to their swing or their approach at the plate.  That said, Suarez may need something drastic to counteract the underlying statistical trends of the last three seasons, or else an extension that once looked pretty team-friendly may now be something of an albatross for the Reds going forward.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrowsFOX Sports Engage Network scroll to top