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Reds Seeking Pitching Depth

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The Braves “have some interest” in free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna, hears Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Atlanta joins the previously-known Cardinals, Reds, White Sox, Rangers, and Marlins in the early sweepstakes for the corner outfielder. Atlanta already re-signed Nick Markakis, but he could be in line for a lesser role after a subpar age-36 season. Alternatively, Atlanta could move Ronald Acuña to center field full-time should they acquire another corner outfielder, be it Ozuna or someone else. Signing the 29-year-old Ozuna, a qualifying offer recipient, would cost the Braves their second-highest draft choice and $500K of international bonus pool space.

  • The Reds plan to bolster their pitching depth this offseason, reports Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. While the club’s main focus figures to be offensive upgrades, GM Nick Krall stressed to Nightengale the importance of stockpiling arms. “Every year, most teams use seven or eight starters,” Krall said. “Most teams use 12 relievers that have significant time. You can’t overlook that.” To that end, Nightengale expects Cincinnati to add a starter and a reliever or two, although it isn’t clear if those additions will be via MLB free agency, trade, or a handful of minor-league free agent signings.

NL Notes: Mets, Rockies, Rodgers, Reds, Boddy

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Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen made waves last offseason with his aggression in the trade market, dealing from the Mets’ minor leagues to bolster the Major League roster with the likes of Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. However, Van Wagenen suggested at the GM meetings that his club will be hesitant to once again dip into the farm system to facilitate trades, reports Tim Healey of Newsday. The Mets’ crop of prospects isn’t an especially deep one—FanGraphs ranks them as having the 22nd-best minor-league system in baseball—and particularly lacks players who are close to the Majors and could contribute in 2020. That said, Healey believes that high-ceiling prospects in the lower minors—a group that includes the likes of Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos, and Matthew Allan, among others—will be hard to pry from Van Wagenen’s hands. After an 86-win season last year, it seems that the Mets feel they can make the jump to contention while still hanging onto their young prospects in hopes of maximizing their competitive window.

Here’s more from around the Senior Circuit…

  • Following the Reds’ hire of Driveline founder Kyle Boddy to serve as the organization’s pitching coordinator, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer offers a glimpse into the Reds’ motivation for targeting Boddy, who had previously never been a full-time employee of an MLB club. In tasking Boddy with developing minor league pitchers, the Reds hope to foster a greater continuity between the philosophies implemented in the Majors and minors. With pitching coach Derek Johnson and staff communicating their message to Boddy, the goal is for the pitching corps to be aligned across all levels of the organization. The addition of Boddy represents a continuation of the Reds’ effort to become more forward-thinking in their player development processes under manager David Bell. And the early returns have been promising: in 2019, the Reds ranked among the top five National League teams in ERA, FIP, and xFIP—a drastic improvement over the prior year, in which Cincy was bottom-three in all three categories.
  • Shortstop Brendan Rodgers, the Rockies’ first-round draft choice in 2015, hasn’t enjoyed quite as much success as the only two players drafted before him—Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman—but after an injury-shortened debut campaign, Rodgers is recovering well from shoulder surgery and is setting his sights high for 2020, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Rodgers landed on the injured list in June with a shoulder impingement, but he ultimately opted for surgery after nagging discomfort throughout his minor-league career. He’s expected to be fully healthy ahead of spring training, and Rodgers feels he’s past the initial adjustment period, during which he admits shoulder pain and self-imposed pressure affected his performance. A natural shortstop, Rodgers is obviously blocked by teammate Trevor Story at that position, and he’ll have to overtake Ryan McMahon for regular playing time at second base. But given Rodgers’s pedigree and minor-league track record, there’s no doubt that he has the talent to bounce back in 2020.

Reds To Give Consideration To Qualifying Offer Recipients

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Following a 2018-2019 offseason that saw the club focus primarily on pitching additions, offensive improvement is expected to be a chief initiative for the Reds this winter. With that goal in mind, the club will not rule out signing free agents attached to a qualifying offer this offseason, as team president of baseball operations Dick Williams indicated at this week’s GM Meetings (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

Although signing a QO-laden free agent would require the Reds to forfeit their third-highest pick in the 2020 First-Year Player Draft, the club does not apparently view that cost as strictly prohibitive:

“We’re very aware of the guys who will have rejected qualifying offers and what that means for the economics of what we’re willing to pay,” Williams said. “I think that’s how the system is set up. That is something we’ll definitely factor in. It doesn’t prevent us from talking to any player. We don’t look at it that way.”

This public stance is especially pertinent considering today marks the deadline for qualifying offer recipients to accept or decline their QO. Four of the ten players who received offers are position players, including first baseman Jose Abreu, third baseman Josh Donaldson, outfielder Marcell Ozuna, and third baseman Anthony Rendon. Given that Cincinnatti’s needs at first and third are likely to be handled by Eugenio Suarez and Joey Votto for the next several years, Ozuna may be left as the presumptive reference point to Williams’ comments.

The early market for Ozuna, in particular, has been said to potentially feature as many as a quarter of MLB teams, perhaps revealing that, like the Reds, clubs are feeling slightly less gunshy about this year’s crop of QO-attached free agents overall. Cincinnati has a wide array of potential avenues to explore in improving their cast of position players, with the outfield, catcher, and second base spots all likely to receive some level of attention this winter.

Latest On Nicholas Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna

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There is little doubt that Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna have the most earning power among free-agent outfielders. In MLBTR’s estimation, they’re the only outfielders who look like strong bets to even land $20MM guarantees this winter. We have Castellanos signing for $58MM over four years and Ozuna receiving a three-year, $45MM contract.

Compared to Ozuna, Castellanos has two obvious factors working in his favor: He’s younger (Castellanos will turn 28 in March, while Ozuna’s 29th birthday was on Tuesday) and there’s no qualifying offer weighing him down. The Cardinals, Ozuna’s most recent team, hit him with a $17.8MM QO aftter the season. Assuming he rejects it by Thursday’s deadline, which looks likely, Ozuna’s next club would have to surrender draft compensation to sign him. As for Castellanos, he was part of a trade during the 2019 campaign, going from the Tigers to the Cubs, so he was ineligible to receive a QO this offseason.

Regardless of whom you prefer, both Castellanos and Ozuna figure to draw plenty of interest now that the offseason is underway. The Reds are one team that seems to like both: Already known to have Ozuna on their radar, they’re also eyeing Castellanos, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. Either would give the playoff-desperate Reds a much-needed established option in the corner outfield, where the talented but largely unproven Jesse Winker and Aristides Aquino look like their best choices at the moment.

The Reds and Cardinals are two of at least a half-dozen teams open to a deal with Ozuna, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold, who also names the White Sox and Rangers among the intrigued clubs. The White Sox’s interest isn’t remotely surprising. After all, they’re trying to transition from rebuilding to contending, but doing so will be difficult without significantly improving an outfield that finished dead last in the majors in fWAR (0.9) in 2019, when rookie Eloy Jimenez was their lone bright spot in the grass.

Likewise, the Rangers have one immensely valuable outfield building block (Joey Gallo), but it’s otherwise up in the air who will comprise the unit with him in 2020. Hunter Pence is a free agent (and more of.a designated hitter nowadays); Shin-Soo Choo’s more cut out for a DH role; Nomar Mazara has disappointed and may not even be a Ranger in 2020; Willie Calhoun and Danny Santana don’t have set positions; and Delino DeShields is coming off yet another rough offensive season. All that said, there’s room for Texas to make at least one notable addition in the outfield, and with the team set to christen a new stadium in 2020, perhaps Ozuna will end up as one of its buzzworthy pickups.

Rays Reportedly Front-Runners For Howie Kendrick

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Free-agent infielder Howe Kendrick may be close to parlaying a brilliant 2019 campaign with the World Series-winning Nationals into a contract with a different club. The Rays are the front-runners to sign Kendrick, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. Meanwhile, Cincinnati – another team that has been connected to Kendrick early this offseason – doesn’t seem likely to sign him, a source told Nightengale.

The 36-year-old Kendrick is well-equipped for an American League team like the Rays, with whom he’d be able to primarily serve as a first baseman/designated hitter. He’s also still versatile enough defensively to see time at second and third base. Beyond that, Kendrick’s ability to rake adds to his appeal as a free agent – one who MLBTR predicts will land a two-year, $12MM contract.

Kendrick has been a quality hitter since his career began in 2006, but he’s now on the heels of his best offensive campaign yet. While Kendrick was only a part-time player with the Nationals in 2019, he hit a jaw-dropping .344/.395/.572 with 17 home runs over 370 plate appearances. And Statcast was even more impressed with Kendrick, evidenced by an expected weighted on-base average (.419) that ranked fourth in the majors and outdid a fantastic .400 real wOBA. Once the regular season ended, Kendrick’s heroics carried into the playoffs, where he swatted a pair of home runs (one versus the Dodgers and another against the Astros) that helped the Cinderella Nationals to a championship.

While Kendrick is still clearly capable of helping just about anyone’s offense, Cincy doesn’t look like the best fit for him. The majority of Kendrick’s playing time this season came at first base, where the Reds already have Joey Votto entrenched as their starter. He also saw a decent amount of time at third base, but the Reds are committed to the big-hitting Eugenio Suarez there. Kendrick can also play second, where the Reds don’t have an established starter, though it doesn’t seem he’s a consistent option there at this point in his career. He logged just 23 games at the keystone in 2019.

Reds Interested In Marcell Ozuna

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It’s been six years since the Reds have made the playoffs or even finished .500 in a season. President Dick Williams has made it no secret the team’s aiming to turn it around ASAP, though, which could set up for an active Reds winter. Improving a weak offense figures to be Cincinnati’s main focus over the coming months. The Reds’ outfield is one of multiple areas of concern, so it’s no surprise they seem to be looking to bolster that area of their roster. They’re among the teams interested in free agent Marcell Ozuna – arguably the top outfielder available – Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.

For Ozuna to actually reach free agency, he’ll first have to reject the Cardinals’ $17.8MM qualifying offer by Thursday. That looks like a near certainty, however, and if it does happen and the Reds do sign Ozuna, they’d have to surrender their third-highest draft pick along with however much it could cost to win the bidding for him. MLBTR forecasts a three-year, $45MM contract for Ozuna, who has an extensive track record of quality production and, along with Nicholas Castellanos, looks like the best free-agent outfielder in this winter’s class. The 29-year-old Ozuna slashed .243/.330/.474 with 29 home runs, 12 steals and 2.6 fWAR across 549 plate appearances in 2019, during which he graded as a Statcast darling.

Whether the Reds get Ozuna or someone else, it’ll be an eye-opener if they don’t land at least one somewhat prominent outfielder this offseason. They’re stuck with a largely unproven group at the moment, as no one from the Nick Senzel–Aristides Aquino–Jesse Winker trio has established himself as a truly capable big league starter yet. Speculatively, if the Reds were to sign Ozuna, he could take over left field, leaving RF to a platoon consisting of the lefty-swinging Winker and the righty-hitting Aquino.

Reds Reportedly Interested In Howie Kendrick

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With memories of his postseason heroics still fresh in mind, Howie Kendrick is drawing widespread interest in free agency. After reports this week connected the veteran infielder to the Rays and Marlins, the Reds can be counted as a third team reportedly interested in acquiring Kendrick’s services, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (link).

For a club expected to pursue offensive improvements, Kendrick seems to make a perfect bedfellow. The 36-year-old just wrapped a .344/.395/.572 regular season showing over 370 plate appearances (before accounting for October exploits), and his Statcast numbers gave exuberant support to his mastery at the plate. His defensive fit on the club would presumably lead to a few more chess moves, however, considering that the club remains heavily committed to incumbent first baseman Joey Votto.

In our Offseason Outlook feature on the Cincinnati club, second base was identified as a primary need, and the former full-time keystone player did log 23 games at that spot last year. Whether or not Kendrick’s body is up for the challenge of a full slate of up-the-middle action is an open question, however; it’s worth noting that the Reds have two in-house options, in Freddy Galvis and Josh VanMeter, capable of assuming the left-handed side of a platoon with Kendrick. It’s possible the team could also squeeze in a few starts for Kendrick at third, although Eugenio Suarez just wrapped an excellent season in which he logged 158 games at the hot corner. Regardless of how they might plan to ultimately squeeze Kendrick’s bat into their lineup, Cincinnati’s interest is further evidence of a rather robust early market for the versatile veteran.

 

 

Quick Hits: Red Sox, Bloom, KBO, Kim, Reds

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With the offseason now firmly underway, let’s survey the baseball landscape with a few brief Saturday notes…

  • For Red Sox fans eager to gain an inkling as to how their team’s front office might behave under new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, it might be worth reading Jen McCaffrey’s latest work for The Athletic, in which she uses Tampa Bay’s moves in 2019 as a blueprint for how Bloom might operate in Boston. The Rays, of course, overcame one of baseball’s smallest payrolls and took the Astros to five games in the ALDS, while the Red Sox missed out on the postseason entirely despite a comparatively astronomical payroll. Boston can expect Bloom to deploy many of the same strategies that brought success to Tampa, though he’ll of course have a greater bank of resources at his disposal. One might liken Bloom to the Dodgers’ Andrew Friedman, another former Rays exec who inherited a big-market budget when he was hired to spearhead the Dodgers’ baseball operations.
  • A flurry of teams sent scouts to watch Kwang-hyun Kim of the KBO’s SK Wyverns, according to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO. Scouts from more than ten teams—including the Padres, Twins, and Dodgers, among others—were recently spotted at one of Kim’s games. Though he hasn’t yet been posted, Kim has expressed his desire to play in the Majors in 2020, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, who also reports that his club is “weighing its options” regarding Kim’s posting. A 31-year-old lefty, Kim logged a 2.51 ERA in 190 1/3 innings of work in the 2019 KBO season, striking out 180 batters while walking just 38. He’s had previous opportunities to play stateside, most notably in 2014 when he and the Padres failed to agree on a contract. He could slot in as a mid-tier free agent option for clubs unwilling to pony up the money necessary to pursue the top options on the market.
  • The Reds have hired a new assistant pitching coordinator, with Eric Jagers announcing on Twitter that he’ll join the Reds staff after a year in the Phillies organization. With the Phillies, Jagers worked in the minor league player development department, filling a new position in the organization as a pitch strategist. He broke into the MLB coaching scene after cutting his teeth as Driveline Baseball’s pitching coordinator. Notably, with the Reds he’ll work alongside another Driveline alum, Kyle Boddy, who founded the company and parlayed its success into a position as the Reds’ pitching coordinator. The addition of Jagers continues the organizational overhaul of its pitching infrastructure, which began with the team’s hiring of Derek Johnson, who coached the club to the National League’s fourth-lowest ERA in 2019.

Trevor Bauer Explores Different Agency Experience, Becomes First Client Of Luba Sports

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Enigmatic hurler Trevor Bauer has left the Wasserman Media Group to become the first client of Luba Sports, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Luba Sports is a new sports agency started by Rachel Luba, who officially became certified as an MLB agent on November 1st. Luba Sports will make up just one part of Bauer’s new representation, however. Bauer hired another certified MLB agent, Jon Fetterolf, a litigator from Zuckerman Spaeder who has a history of assisting agents in arbitration proceedings.

Bauer had no qualms with his previous agency, who did, after all, help him win consecutive arbitration cases against the Cleveland Indians, but at this stage in his career, he’s looking not only at his own upcoming arbitration case, but at the system as a whole. Surprise surprise, but the innovative and free-thinking Bauer has eyes towards making a difference for the betterment of players. Still, Bauer makes a point not to disparage the Wasserman Media Group or the current system. Rather, he aims to give players another option of representation moving forward

As such, the structure of representation set up between Bauer, Luba, and Fetterolf differs from the standard practice in baseball, in which players typically pay 5% of their salaries to their agents upon reaching the majors. Instead, Fetterolf will make a lower commission (1.5 to 2.5%) that differs depending on the player’s career status, plus an hourly rate. Still, the overall fee caps at 5% for an arbitration-eligible player and 4% for a free agent. Depending on the hourly workload, then, players have the potential to pay a good deal less under this structure.

The goal of this system would be to allow players to pay strictly for services rendered, thereby allowing a more personalized agency experience. Rather than being locked into the commission model, an “a la carte” system gives players the option of paying less for fewer services (or paying more for more). This would not wholly upend the player-agent relationship, though it does provide an interesting opportunity for players to reconsider the current structure and explore a system that might work more in their favor. It’s certainly on brand for Bauer to push for this type of innovation, and it will be interesting to follow the extent to which Luba Sports or similar agencies can make inroads with the MLB player community.

Bauer and Luba’s relationship dates back to their days as undergraduates at UCLA when they met in a communication studies class. Luba would go on to become an attorney and work for the players’ union during the 2018 arbitration season. She would be offered a position as an agent with another agency, but chose to forge her own path instead.

The timing here, of course, is not coincidental as Bauer prepares for his final time through arbitration this winter. MLB Contributor Matt Swartz projects Bauer to earn $18.6MM with the Reds this season.

Reds Showing Interest In Didi Gregorius

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The Reds have started off an important winter by showing interest in free agent shortstop Didi Gregorius, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

Now 29 years of age, Gregorius spent his first five seasons as a professional with the Cincinnati organization and briefly debuted in the majors there in 2012. He ended up being traded away to the Diamondbacks and then on to the Yankees, where he established himself as a high-quality piece up the middle.

That’s not the only upper-tier free agent that has been linked to the Reds already this offseason — though others have been connected on a somewhat more speculative basis. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently highlighted backstop Yasmani Grandal as a possibility, writing that “all signs point toward a serious run” at securing his services. Young corner outfielders Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna were also cited as possibilities.

MLBTR recently released its ranking of the top fifty free agents this winter. We predicted both Gregorius and Grandal to land with the Reds, banking on the organization to make good on its oft-stated intention to open the pocketbook up this winter.

Gregorius graded out as our 12th-best free agent. We toyed with the idea of guessing he’d settle for a one-year, make-good contract since he wasn’t in top form late in 2019 after returning from Tommy John surgery. But we ultimately guessed that he’d be able to secure a three-year contract. There are relatively few teams in obvious need of a regular shortstop, but there’s also a shortage of supply outside of Gregorius.

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