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Breakout Candidate: Willie Calhoun

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Willie Calhoun was up and down between the majors and Triple-A quite a few times between 2017 and the first half of 2019. Last June, he got his long-awaited opportunity to play every day, emerging as the Rangers’ starting left fielder. He made the most of it at the plate, hitting .269/.323/.524 (110 wRC+) with 21 home runs in 337 plate appearances. Yet even those solid results seem to belie an impressive, exceedingly rare skillset. Very few players can match Calhoun’s combination of bat-to-ball skills and power.

Last year, Calhoun made contact on 85.4% of his swings; he swung and missed at just 7.2% of total pitches he saw, per Fangraphs. Both those marks are well better than the respective league averages of 76.2% and 11.1%. That places Calhoun among the top 30 or 40 contact hitters in the game- very good, if not quite exceptional. However, unlike many of the game’s bat control artists, Calhoun is also capable of doing damage. His 89.7 MPH average exit velocity would have placed him in the 63rd percentile leaguewide had he amassed enough plate appearances to qualify, per Statcast.

Combining elite bat-to-ball skills and above-average power on contact is tougher than one might expect. In 2019, only D.J. LeMahieu, Nick Markakis, Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Justin Turner had both a lower swinging strike rate and higher average exit velocity than did Calhoun (minimum 300 plate appearances). That’s an eye-catching assortment of names. It’s not a guarantee that Calhoun’s about to emerge as one of the game’s best hitters; Markakis, for instance, was merely average last year. But it does at least confirm Calhoun has a pair of key traits in common with many of the game’s best bats.

Maybe it isn’t surprising Calhoun seems to have massive offensive upside. He raked throughout his minor-league career, and scouts have long lauded his potential at the plate. There’s a reason Calhoun, while a prospect, headlined Texas’ return package for prime Yu Darvish despite concerns about his defense (which have also ultimately proven true). He’s a LF/DH at this point, so he’ll have to rake to warrant continued playing time.

To unlock the next gear offensively, the 25-year-old could stand to be a bit more selective. It seems reasonable to project that coming. After all, he’s only been an everyday big leaguer for half a season. He won’t ever be confused for Joey Votto, but given his other attributes, he needn’t be. Even a small progression in pitch selection could go a long way.

Calhoun should get every opportunity to cement himself as a middle-of-the-order force in Texas. While a scary hit-by-pitch fractured his jaw earlier this month, the most recent indication is that he’s recovering well.

Rangers Option Taylor Hearn, Scott Heineman

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  • The Rangers sent down southpaw Taylor Hearn and outfielder Scott Heineman. The 25-year-old Hearn endured an injury-limited 2019, but he was seen as one of the Rangers’ top pitching prospects before then. While Heineman raked in Triple-A ball (.340/.412/.553 in 182 plate appearances), he slumped to a .213/.306/.373 line in 85 PA with the Rangers.

Latest On Rangers' International Signing Plans

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  • Baseball America’s Ben Badler profiles another batch of international prospects expected to sign with MLB teams when the next international signing window opens (a date that now could be pushed back from July 2 to as late as January 2021).  The Orioles, Rangers, Padres, Royals, and Rays are connected to the five players in Badler’s piece, with some contractual bonus information known for two of the youngsters.  Kansas City is expected to spend “north of $1.5MM” on Dominican shortstop Daniel Vasquez, while Tampa Bay is expected to spend “a little below $2MM” on Dominican outfielder Jhonny Piron.  While the dollar figures for this year’s international spending pools haven’t yet been released, the Rays already figure to have committed a big chunk of their available funds on Piron and Carlos Colmenarez, given that Badler previously described Colmenarez as “making a strong case to be the No. 1 player” in this year’s international class.  This would seemingly put Colmenarez in line for a major bonus, though the Rays can always add to their international pool by trading with other teams.  It’s also fair to assume that the bonus pool system could also see some type of alteration if and when the signing window doesn’t open until January.

Willie Calhoun Cleared For Baseball Activities

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  • Rangers outfielder Willie Calhoun provided a positive update on his recovery from a jaw fracture, tweeting that he has been cleared for baseball activities and daily workouts.  After being struck in the face by a fastball during a Cactus League at-bat late in camp, Calhoun had been limited to lighter exercise like riding a stationary bike, as Texas manager Chris Woodward told MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan yesterday (Twitter link). The club still expects him to be ready for the season opener — whenever it may be. Calhoun’s availability, or lack thereof, will probably have direct ramifications for prospect Nick Solak. A highly touted hitter without a clear opening on the diamond, Solak would’ve opened the season in left field had Calhoun been on the injured list. But with Calhoun projected to open in left field, Rougned Odor at second base, Todd Frazier at third base and Danny Santana in center field, there’s no clear spot for Solak to slot into the lineup. A rotation through several positions each week could get him regular at-bats, but the Rangers could also want him to receive everyday reps at one position in Triple-A. Then again, if the season opens with expanded rosters — as is reportedly under consideration — a player with Solak’s bat and versatility could prove a particularly valuable commodity to have on hand.

Extension Candidates: AL West

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We don’t really know whether or to what extent extension talks will continue during the coronavirus hiatus. But as I wrote recently, it seems reasonable to think they’ll be explored. Some may already have advanced nearly to completion before the global pandemic intervened.

While we may have to wait to learn who the targets are and see what deals get done, there’s a silver lining: more time for rampant speculation! Okay, we’re not going to speculate here; rather, we’ll tick through some interesting possibilities on paper. Remember, we’ve seen an increasing prevalence of deals with less-experienced players (even some without any MLB service) and with new player types (early-career relievers and utilitymen).

In the present MLB environment, value is king and the old forms are fading. We’ve already checked in on the NL East, NL Central, NL West, and AL East. Here are some possible extension candidates from the AL West …

Angels

It seems the Halos have some level of interest in trying to keep peerless defensive shortstop Andrelton Simmons from reaching the open market. He’d be quite an interesting player to value after a down, injury-filled year. If he can continue producing otherworldly defensive work in 2020 while returning to league-average hitting, he’d be a fascinating player to watch in free agency.

There are a few other guys nearing free agency that could be considered. Tommy La Stella had a breakout in an injury-shortened 2019 season. He’s already 31 and there’ll be questions about sustainability. But perhaps the sides could share the risk and upside with a relatively modest accord. Reliever Hansel Robles and starter Andrew Heaney are both two years from free agency, though there’s no particular reason to rush into a commitment in either case.

Things get quite a bit more interesting when you look at players much further from the open market. Shohei Ohtani put a ton of faith in himself when he came to the majors for a pittance of a bonus. His two-way ability and near-limitless upside on the mound make him a highly intriguing extension candidate, though sorting out a fair value won’t be straightforward. There’s a clear map for a deal for elite outfield prospect Jo Adell, if both sides are interested, as the White Sox have reached successive pre-debut pacts with Eloy Jimenez ($43MM) and Luis Robert ($50MM). Beyond Ohtani and Adell, the Angels could consider much more modest pacts with utilityman David Fletcher and/or reliever Ty Buttrey.

Astros

There’s an abundance of star power to contemplate for a Houston organization in turmoil. Most pressing: outfielder George Springer, who’s entering his final year of arbitration. This is the final window to get a deal done; whether that’s a realistic possibility isn’t known. Not far behind him is shortstop Carlos Correa, who is two years from the open market. His huge ceiling and more modest recent play make this a suboptimal time to work out a deal, unless both sides are in the mood for compromise.

The ’Stros have a pair of slugging young left-handed hitters that could conceivably be candidates for aggressive early extensions. Yordan Alvarez burst onto the scene last year, but he has had a balky knee this spring and is mostly viewed as a DH. Meanwhile, Kyle Tucker is a surefire big leaguer with star upside, but he’s rather less established. On the pitching side, the Astros could potentially chase value by holding talks with Jose Urquidy, Josh James, or even Bryan Abreu. It may be early in all of those cases, but this organization did reach a then-unprecedented deal with Jon Singleton.

Athletics

The Oakland org has a bunch of candidates that leap off of the page in just about every service class. After a monster 2019 season, shortstop Marcus Semien is slated to reach free agency at the end of 2020. It would probably take a franchise-record deal to keep him from testing the market. Perhaps there’s more room to work out a palatable price tag with reliever Liam Hendriks, who has emerged as one of the game’s most effective relievers since being designated for assignment and then called back up late in the 2018 season. Outfielder Mark Canha had his own recent breakout; perhaps he’s also a candidate with two years left until free agency.

What the A’s really hoped for was a pair of long-term pacts with corner infielders Matt Chapman and Matt Olson. But both were not wooed by prior efforts and they’re both now within a season of arbitration. There is certainly still a window, but the Oakland organization will really have to open the wallet. Striking major pacts with either or both (not to mention Semien) would mark a big vote of confidence in the team’s plans for a new ballpark.

Further down the line in terms of service class are a host of intriguing candidates. Outfielder Ramon Laureano, catcher Sean Murphy, and prized southpaws Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk all carry eyebrow-raising talent. They’re also already controlled for quite some time. But this may be the optimal point for the A’s to achieve big value with a few of those players.

Mariners

Having already inked lefty Marco Gonzales and pre-MLB first baseman Evan White, the M’s have already accounted for their most obvious candidates. And the best of the rest aren’t likely in consideration this winter. Mitch Haniger still needs to get back to full health; top prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are probably a bit too green for even an aggressive deal.

But there are a few more to consider. Shed Long and J.P. Crawford each had solid showings last year and could make sense at the right price. Perhaps the Mariners could even consider less-experienced outfielders Kyle Lewis and Jake Fraley, though that’d make for a surprise in either case. It’s frankly difficult even to suggest another candidate; reliever Austin Adams could’ve been of some interest but he’s rehabbing a major knee injury.

Rangers

You could make a case for a few guys here. Young slugger Willie Calhoun might be a worthwhile target after a strong 2019 showing, though it took the club some time to find him a spot in the majors and he’s now nursing a broken jaw. Veteran starters Mike Minor and Lance Lynn are nearing free agency, with the former entering his walk year, though the Texas org already took on some pitching risk this winter and may not want to over-extend itself with older hurlers.

Really, the Texas extension situation is all about one man: slugging outfielder/first baseman Joey Gallo. The game’s preeminent three-true-outcomes batter, Gallo is in his first of three arbitration-eligible campaigns, so he has entered the big earning stage of his career but hasn’t yet been paid huge money. He was limited by injury (oblique, hamate) in 2019 but put up monster numbers when available, with 22 long balls and a .253/.389/.598 slash over 297 plate appearances. It’s easy to forget that Gallo is a valuable outfield defender and baserunner, making him one of the higher-ceiling all-around players in the game.

Rookie Radar: AL West

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The delayed start to the 2020 season will obviously have a wide range of massive effects on Major League Baseball. Among them: a totally different promotional timeline for some of the game’s most exciting young players. We will never know how things would’ve unfolded. And we don’t yet even know what the parameters are for an altered season. But there’s no doubting the impact.

Typically, opportunities open as rosters evolve over the course of a grueling, 162-game season. Some top prospects force their way up to the majors; others are called upon because a need arises. In a shorter campaign, there’ll be less attrition … though we may also see relaxed roster rules and changes to allocation of service time that could create opportunities.

Still, with more time to examine rosters and think about the state of the game, there’s an opportunity to stop and appreciate the young talent on the cusp of the majors. We’ll run through the most interesting prospects pressing for near-term MLB action, starting with the American League West:

Angels

There’s loads of excitement at the top of the farm. The Halos have one of the game’s very best overall prospects in Jo Adell. Perhaps their best chance of catching the Astros lies in Adell taking the league by storm and combining with Mike Trout and (a hopefully resurgent) Justin Upton to form one of the game’s best outfields. Another highly regarded young outfielder, Brandon Marsh, is also close. An elbow injury limited him this spring, but he’ll hopefully rehab through that while the game is on pause.

Otherwise, the Angels will certainly hope they get a significant contribution out of lefty Patrick Sandoval. The 23-year-old took some lumps last year but did put up a 13.5% swinging-strike rate in his first ten MLB outings.

Astros

The division’s dominant force enters the season facing a few questions in the MLB staff. Fortunately, there are a bunch of arms coming. Forrest Whitley still has immense upside despite a brutal 2019 season. He’ll be tasked with getting back on track in the upper minors. Having snuck past Whitley, Jose Urquidy will slot right back into the big league rotation. He’s not known for his high-powered arsenal, but he was highly effective late last year — even including a remarkable performance when pressed into postseason duties (one earned run, 12:2 K/BB in ten innings).

High-octane righty Bryan Abreu also got some playoff action after a strong relief showing late in the season. He could be a force in the pen. Fellow right-handers Christian Javier, Enoli Paredes, and Brandon Bielak are also on the rise.

Another well-regarded player who debuted in 2019 is third baseman Abraham Toro. He smashed minor-league pitching but didn’t thrive in a 25-game run in the majors. Toro had also struggled in Grapefruit League action this spring, but it’d be a surprise if he isn’t called upon at some point in 2020.

Athletics

There’s loads of talent ready to see action in Oakland. Lefties Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk recovered from injuries and hit the majors last year. They’ll draw loads of attention, and rightly so, but that’s just the start. Righties Daulton Jefferies and James Kaprielian could also push for their debuts.

There are names to watch on the position player side as well. The A’s have a bevy of youthful backstops who’ll be entrusted with holding down the catching duties. Sean Murphy put himself on everyone’s map last year. He could be joined by Austin Allen, but fellow young receiver Jonah Heim is also a factor. Infielders Sheldon Neuse will factor, though he hasn’t hit much this spring and didn’t impress in his 2019 debut. It remains to be seen how the club will handle the out-of-options Jorge Mateo with strong competition at second base. Outfielder Luis Barrera hasn’t yet debuted but earned a 40-man spot after a solid partial season at Double-A.

Mariners

On the pitching side, lefty Justus Sheffield has been on the map for some time and is in need of extended testing at the game’s highest level. Righty Justin Dunn had some struggles in his brief debut last year but is competing for a MLB job in camp. Recent first-rounder Logan Gilbert ran up to Double-A in his first professional season and now stands as a consensus top-100 prospect.

Several position players are sure to factor in the bigs as well. Recently extended first baseman Evan White is obviously slated for a big role. And the M’s may well go ahead and provide long looks to 24-year-old outfielders Jake Fraley and Kyle Lewis, each of whom cracked the bigs last year. The Seattle org will want to get a sense of their outlook. After all, there’s more talent coming up behind. It never seemed likely we’d see much-hyped outfield prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez in 2020. With some or all of the minor-league season now gone, it’s even less likely.

Rangers

Most of the best-regarded Texas farmhands are still queuing up further down the system. But there are a few players vying for immediate playing time.

First and foremost, infielder/outfielder Nick Solak is almost sure to fit … well, somewhere. He has featured in the team’s planning all winter, even if the vision for where and how much he’d play has shifted as the Rangers pursued offseason additions. It’s plausible to imagine Solak appearing at first, second, third, and anywhere in the outfield as needs dictate.

Unless and until there’s an injury, the rotation doesn’t have any space. But lefty Joe Palumbo could be among the first names on call if a need arises, or he could slot into the pen. Righty DeMarcus Evans joined the 40-man after a lights-out 2019 season and seems likely to get a crack at the majors at some point.

Rangers Planning $1.5MM Bonus For International Prospect

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  • Baseball America’s Ben Badler (subscription required) looks at five prospects who are lined up to join Major League teams when the international signing window opens on July 2.  The Padres, Brewers, Braves, Indians, and Rangers have already been respectively connected to each of the five youngsters, with Atlanta and Cleveland each prepared to give out bonuses in the $1MM range.
  • Fraidel Liriano, another shortstop from the Dominican Republic, is expected to land the largest bonus of the quintet, as Badler writes that the Rangers will give Liriano around $1.5MM.  Liriano could eventually wind up at third base or second base rather than shortstop, though some scouts were intrigued by his hitting potential, with Liriano’s “strong hands and quick wrists, producing whippy bat speed.”

Isiah Kiner-Falefa Raising Expectations

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Before spring training shut down, the Rangers’ Isiah Kiner-Falefa made his presence known while vying for the 26th roster spot. Kiner-Falefa, 25 on Monday, put up big numbers this spring after ditching a high leg kick –  though his swing could use further simplification, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Kiner-Falefa returned home to Hawaii for now, but when/if the season reboots, he’ll have a chance not only to crack the Rangers’ roster, but to play a significant role. Kiner-Falefa brings interesting upside to the Rangers’ roster because of his positional versatility. The past two seasons he has not only served as the Rangers’ backup catcher, appearing in 35 and 38 games behind the dish, respectively, but he’s also seen time at third base and in the middle infield. The bat has not been there over the course of his first two big-league seasons (.253/.315/.344, 71 wRC+), but given what they saw thus far in the spring, expectations are that Kiner-Falefa could push for additional playing time at third base where Todd Frazier is slated to sit first chair. Elsewhere out west…

Latest On Willie Calhoun’s Recovery

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The Rangers’ Willie Calhoun suffered a fractured jaw March 8, but the outfielder has made encouraging progress in the week-plus since then. Calhoun flew back to Texas with his teammates on Monday after receiving medical clearance, MLB.com TR Sullivan of MLB.com tweets. Aside from the fractured jaw, Calhoun’s not dealing with any other symptoms. He’s slated to begin light cardio activity later this week.

After taking a 95 mph fastball in the face from the Dodgers’ Julio Urias, Calhoun looked like a sure bet to open the season on the injured list. But that was before Major League Baseball shut down for an indeterminate amount of time because of the global coronavirus pandemic. It’s obvious that the longer play is halted, the better Calhoun’s chances are of logging a full season, though it’s anyone’s guess when the sport will resume or how many games the league will squeeze in this year.

A full slate from Calhoun would undoubtedly be welcome for the Rangers, who saw the former top-100 prospect turn into a solid contributor in 2019. Calhoun, 25, accrued a career-high 337 plate appearances and batted .269/.323/.524 with 21 home runs and an impressive 15.6 percent strikeout rate.

The health of Calhoun figures to affect the role of Nick Solak, also 25. Solak had been in line to fill in as the Rangers’ left fielder during Calhoun’s absence. Solak can move around the diamond, though, as he played second and third during his initial big league stint last season and lined up at all three outfield positions as a minor leaguer. And Solak certainly made a case for a larger role during his MLB debut last year, when he hit a robust .293/.393/.491 and tallied five homers in 135 trips to the plate.

COVID-19’s Effect On Minor Leaguers

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Professional sports’ coronavirus-forced shutdown could have an especially negative effect on minor league baseball players. Even in the best of times, their salaries pale in comparison to players in the majors. And now that play’s suspended for an indeterminate amount of time, minor leaguers can’t even receive unemployment benefits because they’re under contract with major league teams, attorney Garrett Broshuis points out on Twitter. Fortunately, though, multiple teams in the majors seem to be stepping up on behalf of players from lower leagues.

The Rangers are among the organizations that have mentioned the idea of paying minor leaguers to MLB during the game’s absence, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets. It’s unclear which actions MLB will take in response, but this is no doubt a dire situation for minor leaguers, who haven’t collected salaries since last August. Athletics minor league pitcher Peter Bayer tweeted Thursday that he has begun driving for the food delivery service DoorDash in order to help make up for the wages he stands to lose with the sport on hiatus. He’s surely not the only minor leaguer scrambling to earn a living right now.

Even before the coronavirus wreaked havoc on the world, low minor league pay was a hot-button issue across baseball. As of 2018, the average minor league salary ranged from roughly $6K in Single-A ball to around $15K at the Triple-A level, Daniel Gallen of PennLive.com noted last June. Those salaries are close to the 2019 poverty line of $12,490, which doesn’t reflect well on pro baseball teams.  As of last April, Forbes valued the average MLB franchise at $1.78 billion.

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