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2017-18 Rule 5 Draft Update

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At this point of the season, it’s reasonable to expect the remaining Rule 5 players who are on big league rosters to hold those spots for the remainder of the season. That doesn’t mean that each has necessarily impressed to the point where he’s viewed as a viable long-term option, but with rosters set to expand in a couple of weeks and this much time already invested in each player, the remaining prospects who are clinging to eligibility have likely secured themselves a look in 2019 — even if it means opening the season in the minors.

When I last checked in on this year’s Rule 5-ers back in June, there were nine players either on active MLB rosters or on the big league disabled list, with the rest of this year’s class having been returned to their original organizations. That number hasn’t changed, though the complexion of the list is a bit different, and there have been some encouraging strides among the bunch. Here’s how the class looks at present:

Active Big Leaguers

  • Victor Reyes, OF, Tigers (from D-backs): Reyes still isn’t hitting much, but the Tigers have given him much more time in the outfield as the season wears on. The 23-year-old played just nine complete games through the end of June, but since July 1, he’s logged 22 full games of action in addition to numerous partial appearances where he’s either been pinch-hit for or entered the game as a pinch-runner or defensive replacement. Reyes is hitting just .244/.279/.256 through 86 PAs in July and August, so he’s not impressing at the plate in spite of the recent uptick in playing time. He is 7-for-8 in stolen base attempts and has registered solid defensive marks in the outfield. It still seems likely that he’ll be ticketed for regular work in Triple-A next season once he can be optioned.
  • Brad Keller, RHP, Royals (from D-backs): As the Kansas City Star’s Maria Torres noted over the weekend, Keller has been a rare bright spot in a largely abysmal season for the Royals. Keller posted underwhelming numbers in Double-A last season and skipped Triple-A entirely, but the Royals deserve some credit for nabbing him anyway last December. In 100 1/3 innings this year, Keller has posted a terrific 3.32 ERA. And while his 6.0 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 marks are underwhelming, he’s notched a strong 54.8 percent ground-ball rate. It remains to be seen if Keller can sustain his minuscule 0.45 HR/9 rate, though he’s never averaged even a homer per nine frames in the minors. Fielding-independent pitching metrics are fairly spread out on him, due in no small part to that low homer rate, but if he can settle in even as a pitcher capable of delivering an ERA in the low 4.00s over a season’s worth of starts, that’d make him a very successful pick.
  • Burch Smith, RHP, Royals (from Rays, via trade w/ Mets): Kansas City hasn’t been as successful with Smith, whose ERA sits at an ugly 6.54 through 64 2/3 innings — mostly out of the bullpen. He’s averaged 8.6 K/9 against 4.5 BB/9, and in addition to issuing too many walks, he’s been far too homer-prone (1.95 HR/9). More than 18 percent of the fly-balls against Smith have left the yard — a troubling trend for a pitcher with just a 39.4 percent ground-ball rate. Smith barely pitched from 2014-17 due to injuries, including Tommy John surgery, so the Royals may not want to give up on him in spite of the poor results. At this point, they’ve come far enough along that it could make sense to keep him around and see how he fares in the upper minors next season. He’ll be 29 in April, but he has minor league options remaining.
  • Carlos Tocci, OF, Rangers (from Phillies, via trade w/ White Sox): Tocci has been the most seldom-used player in the Majors, functioning almost exclusively as a defensive replacement for much of the season. He’s appeared in 51 games and totaled just 103 plate appearances, but the Rangers have given him a slight increase in playing time in August. This month, he’s started nine games and shown a bit of promise in that tiny sample, hitting .300/.323/.367 in 33 plate appearances — albeit with nine punchouts and just one walk. Tocci is hitting .207/.255/.250 overall, though, and appears ticketed for minor league work in 2019 even if his glove has been solid in limited work to date.
  • Elieser Hernandez, RHP, Marlins (from Astros): Hernandez, who turned 23 back in May, made the jump from High-A to the Majors and, unsurprisingly, has posted less-than-stellar results. He’s tossed 56 2/3 innings for Miami, including five starts, while working to a 5.08 ERA with 6.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.27 HR/9 and an extremely low 26.3 percent ground-ball rate. Some struggles were to be expected given the considerable jump he faced, however, and it’d be fair to say he’s at least held his own, given that he skipped both Double-A and Triple-A. He should survive the season with the rebuilding Marlins, and he’ll likely be ticketed for upper-minors work in 2019.
  • Brett Graves, RHP, Marlins (from Athletics): Graves was on the DL back in June, having missed the first two-plus months of the season with an oblique injury. Since making his big league debut, he’s posted a 6.23 ERA with 10 strikeouts against seven walks (two intentional) and three hit batters in 17 1/3 innings. The 25-year-old has primarily been a starter in the minors but has been used out of the bullpen in Miami to this point. He’s displayed good ground-ball tendencies thus far (53.6 percent) and has yet to allow a homer. Though he missed notable time this year, Graves was activated early enough that he’ll accrue the requisite 90 days on the active roster to shed his Rule 5 status this season — provided he doesn’t incur an injury before rosters expand.

On the Major League Disabled List

  • Julian Fernandez, RHP, Giants (from Rockies): Fernandez underwent Tommy John surgery back in April. He’ll accrue MLB service time while spending the season on the 60-day disabled list and will retain his Rule 5 status heading into 2019, if the Giants wish to hang onto him all offseason.
  • Pedro Araujo, RHP, Orioles (from Cubs): Araujo is the last of three Orioles picks from the 2017 Rule 5 Draft remaining on the big league roster, but he’s been on the DL since June 11 due to an elbow sprain. When he was active, he showed plenty of ability to miss bats (13.9 percent swinging-strike rate, 9.3 K/9) but also averaged 5.8 walks and a staggering 2.89 homers per nine innings pitched. It’s not clear if he’ll return this season, but if he doesn’t, he’ll retain his Rule 5 eligibility into 2019. The Orioles won’t be able to option him until he spends 90 days on the active MLB roster, and he’s a bit more than two weeks shy of that right now.
  • Nick Burdi, RHP, Pirates (from Twins via trade w/ Phillies): The flame-throwing Burdi missed nearly all of 2016 due to injury and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017, but he’s finally on the comeback trail in a new organization. Pittsburgh sent the former Louisville standout on a rehab assignment earlier this month, and he’s pitched seven innings with an 11-to-4 K/BB ratio across three levels so far. He’s yielded five earned runs in that time, though the Bucs likely aren’t focusing heavily on bottom-line results at this point of his recovery. Burdi will have to carry over his Rule 5 eligibility into the 2019 season if the Pirates wish to retain him, but he’s a highly intriguing bullpen piece who could be worth the investment. Burdi’s heater received 80 grades on the 20-80 scale prior to surgery, and he’s been touted as a potential big league closer since his college days.

Returned to Original Organization

How The Rangers Can Benefit From Hamels' Success In Chicago

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  • Cole Hamels has been nothing short of excellent since joining the Cubs, posting a microscopic 0.72 ERA over his first 25 innings with the team.  With Hamels pitching like an ace again, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wonders if this could bode well for the Rangers, as Texas wouldn’t be on the hook for the $6MM buyout of Hamels’ $20MM option for 2019 if Chicago decided to exercise that option.  There are some complications, Grant notes, as the Cubs may not want to spend that much on a pitcher who turns 35 in December, no matter how well Hamels performs down the stretch.  The Cubs already have quite a bit of money tied up in their rotation, and keeping Hamels would put them in danger of surpassing the luxury tax threshold (MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has written in the past about the Cubs’ strange reluctance incur a tax penalty, despite the relatively meager financial cost they’d face as “a first-time payor.”)

Rangers Not Interested In "Selling Low" On Gallo

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While Mets owner Fred Wilpon would reportedly prefer to hire a general manager from a more traditional scouting background, Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman hears that team COO Jeff Wilpon could prefer a GM in the younger, analytics-based mold.  Essentially, the Mets’ search is still in its very early stages, so it isn’t clear what type of executive the club will ultimately pursue.  For instance, Heyman reports that the Mets have interest in Astros assistant GM Mike Elias and former Brewers and Rangers general manager Doug Melvin, who each respectively represent the new-school and old-school approaches.  It’s also possible the team could end up hiring from within after all, giving the job to longtime assistant GM John Ricco or special assistant (and former general manager) Omar Minaya.

[SOURCE LINK]

  • Joey Gallo drew some interest at the trade deadline, though the Rangers weren’t close to a deal since they’d be “selling low,” as one source tells Heyman.  Gallo is controlled through the 2022 season and still boasts great potential as a hitter, despite his penchant for strikeouts and low batting averages.  It’s worth noting that Gallo had only a .187/.303/.454 slash line on July 31, though he has since been on fire, hitting .333/.394/.750 over 66 plate appearances in August.  Trading Gallo would’ve signaled a larger rebuild for the Rangers, who thought to be looking at 2019 as a year of “retrenchment” before returning to contention in 2020 when their new ballpark opens.

Delino DeShields Diagnosed With Finger Fracture

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  • The Rangers have placed center fielder Delino DeShields Jr. on the 10-day DL with a finger fracture. He suffered the break to the tip of his right middle finger. Drew Robinson will be recalled to take the roster spot. It has been a tough year at the plate for DeShields, who turned 26 just yesterday. He has swiped 18 bags on the year, but carries only a .204/.303/.272 slash over 348 plate appearances. As the Rangers look ahead to an offseason of uncertainty, they’d surely like to see DeShields in action as much as possible, so the hope will be that he can bounce back relatively quickly.

Rangers, Diamondbacks Complete Jake Diekman Trade

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The Rangers annnounced today that they have acquired minor-league lefty Joshua Javier from the Diamondbacks. He’ll represent the player to be named later from the agreement that sent veteran southpaw Jake Diekman to Arizona at the trade deadline.

Javier, 19, showed well last year in the Dominican Summer League. He reached the Rookie level Arizona League in 2018, marking his first time playing professionally outside of his native Dominican Republic. Through 35 1/3 innings over four starts and six relief appearances, he carries a 2.80 ERA with 33 strikeouts and 15 walks.

Otherwise, there isn’t much information available publicly on Javier, who is a native of the Dominican Republic. He’ll join young righty Wei-Chieh Huang in constituting the return for Diekman. While both pre-MLB hurlers seem to have their share of promise, it doesn’t appear to be a major haul of talent, though neither was one expected for a rental reliever who has his share of demerits on the hill. Of course, the 31-year-old Diekman still brings a mid-nineties heater and has dominated right-handed hitters this year, contrary to his more typical career platoon numbers. He owns a 3.86 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 5.8 BB/9 this year through 42 innings and figures to be a useful asset for Arizona down the stretch.

Rangers, Pirates Complete Keone Kela Trade

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The Rangers will acquire prospect Sherten Apostel from the Pirates, as first reported by John Dreker of PiratesProspects.com (via Twitter) and as has since been announced. Apostel was chosen as the player to be named later in the deadline-day swap that sent reliever Keone Kela to the Pirates.

Apostel, 19, has been in the Bucs system for the past three years. The Curacaoan third baseman has put up strong offensive numbers in 2017 and 2018. This year, he’s slashing .259/.406/.460 with seven long balls along with a 42:32 K/BB rate over 175 plate appearances in the Rookie-level Appalachian League.

Though he has many hurdles to clear before he’ll be seen as a likely major-league asset, Apostel has certainly carved out a place for himself on the prospect map. He entered the current season ranked 16th among the pre-MLB players on the Pittsburgh farm by Fangraphs, based upon his intriguing upside. (Truly passionate Pirates supporters will want to consider a subscription over at PiratesProspects.com, where there are loads of stories documenting the progress of Apostel and his now-former prospect brethren.)

It seems, then, that the swap will infuse the Texas farm system with some quality new assets. Lefty Taylor Hearn was already acquired as the headliner of the package and could be a factor in the MLB mix as soon as 2019, if he develops as hoped. Apostel will no doubt be viewed as an increasingly important part of the Rangers’ future if he can continue to progress, though his outlook perhaps hinges most upon the question whether he will be able to handle third base defensively at full physical maturity. (Fangraphs just inserted him at 13th on its current ranking of Rangers prospects, which features Hearn in the #6 slot.)

It always figured to require a reasonably steep package of talent to get Kela, given his strong work this year and remaining seasons of arbitration eligibility. For the Pirates, Kela’s initial performance has at least helped validate the acquisition cost. The still-youthful reliever has allowed only one earned run in six frames for the Bucs, striking out six batters and issuing one walk. He’ll remain under club control through 2020.

West Notes: Beltre, Maeda, Dodgers Pen, Franmil

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Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre doesn’t seem to believe his latest hamstring injury is a particularly significant one, but nevertheless says it is impacting his thinking as he weighs whether to play another season. As Drew Davison of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes, Beltre emphasized that the hammy troubles have been with him for his entire career. But, he said, the latest tweak “brings the question of, ’Is this going to keep happening more often? Is it worth it to fight it back? Is it a sign that maybe it’s time to get close to say goodbye to you guys?'” While the remark certainly could be read as a suggestion that Beltre is preparing for the end of his playing career, it also clearly indicates he’s still pondering a continuation.

Here’s more from out west …

  • It appears that Dodgers righty Kenta Maeda is not exactly thrilled with the team’s decision to utilize him as a reliever. As Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times wrote recently, Maeda artfully avoided any direct criticism of the move, but also declined to offer any indication that he is truly amenable to pitching from the pen. That’s understandable, given that he carries a 3.85 ERA in 110 innings on the season and certainly seems worthy of a MLB rotation spot. It probably doesn’t help that his incentive-heavy contract pays more if he racks up innings, though Maeda also tells Hernandez that the money isn’t an issue for him. While it isn’t hard to see why this is a disappointing development for the 30-year-old, it’s also understandable for a club that has six other starters with even better earned run averages and also has experienced significant bullpen issues of late.
  • Despite those recent struggles in the relief corps, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman tells Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times that he remains bullish on the pen’s outlook. With some hurlers expected to return from health issues — none more important than closer Kenley Jansen — the organization seemingly thinks it has enough pieces on hand to get things done. Indeed, Friedman even says he anticipates that the relief unit “will be a strength” down the stretch. That, per Friedman, is why the club set “a high bar for what [it was] looking to acquire” at the trade deadline. When nothing sufficiently intriguing came together, says the club’s top baseball exec, the decision was made to focus instead on boosting the ability to score runs. It certainly does not sound as if the Dodgers are particularly inclined to pursue further reliever acquisitions in August, though perhaps that still cannot be ruled out either.
  • The Padres gambled in this past winter’s Rule 5 Draft by leaving slugger Franmil Reyes unprotected, writes MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell, and the towering outfielder is now forcing himself into the team’s long-term plans. Reyes acknowledges that he was “disappointed” to be left off the 40-man roster, though Cassavell reports that there was some strategy involved in that roll of the dice; Reyes underwent minor surgery on his hand not long before the deadline to set 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5, and the Padres felt it would lessen the chances of him being taken. That proved to be the case, and while Reyes’ overall .278 OBP is an eyesore, he’s demonstrated prodigious power and cut back on his strikeouts (admittedly, in a tiny sample) since returning from the minors — though he has also encountered a particularly dry spell of late. Between Reyes, Franchy Cordero, Manuel Margot, Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe and Travis Jankowski (among others), the Friars’ front office will have some decisions to make this winter.

Royals Acquire International Bonus Pool Space From Rangers

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The Royals announced on Thursday that they’ve traded minor league right-hander Kelvin Gonzalez to the Rangers in exchange for international bonus pool allotments.

The 20-year-old Gonzalez — not to be confused with third baseman Kelvin Gutierrez, who was acquired from the Nationals in exchange for Kelvin Herrera — has spent the 2018 season with Kansas City’s Rookie-level affiliate in the Appalachian League. Through 19 1/3 innings, he’s worked to a 4.19 ERA with a 17-to-7 K/BB ratio and a 50.8 percent ground-ball rate. Gonzalez split the 2017 season between the Royals’ Rookie-level Arizona League affiliate and their Dominican Summer League club, pitching to a combined 3.00 ERA with 7.1 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9. He’s made 36 appearances as a professional — all coming as a reliever. He was not ranked among the organization’s top 30 prospects.

It’s at least a moderate surprise to see the Rangers dealing away any international slot allocations, as Texas is not under any penalty for the 2018-19 signing period and is free to spend its pool as it wishes. The Rangers already catcher Jose Rodriguez and infielder Luisangel Acuna (the younger brother of Ronald Acuna) for a combined $2.45MM, and they’ve added at least 11 other international amateurs since the period opened, per Baseball America’s Ben Badler.

The Rangers opened the 2018-19 period with the standard bonus allotment of $4,983,500. The exact amounts of their signings to date haven’t all been reported, nor has the size of the allotment they’re sending to Kansas City, so it’s not known exactly how much Texas has remaining. Under the collective bargaining agreement, international allotments must be traded in $250K increments (though clubs can send under $250K to complete a deal if they have less than $250K remaining).

Rangers Acquire Alexander Ovalles From Cubs As PTBNL In Cole Hamels Trade

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The Rangers announced Tuesday that they’ve acquired minor league outfielder Alexander Ovalles as the player to be named later in last month’s Cole Hamels trade. Ovalles joins right-hander Eddie Butler and minor league right-hander Rollie Lacy in the package sent from Chicago to Texas in that swap.

Just 17 years of age, Ovalles made his professional debut with the Cubs’ affiliate in the Dominican Summer League this year. Through 21 games and 94 plate appearances, he’s posted a .316/.430/.368 batting line with four doubles and eight steals in 13 tries.

Ovalles, who signed with the Cubs out of the Dominican Republic during the 2017-18 international signing period, isn’t ranked among the club’s top tier of prospects, though that’s not a huge surprise given his age and modest price tag. While the amount of Ovalles’ bonus wasn’t reported last year, the Cubs were under the maximum penalty bracket for exceeding previous international spending limitations, meaning they were capped at $300K per signing when they added Ovalles.

Doug Fister Shut Down For Remainder Of Season

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The knee strain that has kept Rangers right-hander Doug Fister on the disabled list since mid-June will prove to be season-ending, reports Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link). Fister’s knee hasn’t responded well to the rehab efforts, and he won’t pitch again in 2018.

Fister, 34, signed a one-year deal worth $4MM to join the Rangers this offseason. That pact comes with a $4.5MM option for the 2019 season as well, so it’s not a guarantee that the injury will ultimately end his tenure with the organization. The Texas front office will owe him a $500K buyout of the option regardless, so it’ll boil down to another $4MM decision on their end. Given his recent track record, it seems likelier to be declined, but the Rangers organization is also perilously thin on rotation depth.

While Fister didn’t pitch especially well in Texas, he did give the Rangers a dozen serviceable starts. In 66 innings, the veteran worked to a 4.50 ERA with 40 strikeouts against 19 walks to go along with a 50.6 percent ground-ball rate. His fastball, though, sat at an average of 88.4 mph — down from last year’s 89.8 mph mark — and Fister’s 5.1 percent swinging-strike rate was not only the second-worst mark of his career but also the lowest mark of any pitcher in MLB with at least 60 innings thrown.

It’s been nearly a half decade since Fister, once one of the game’s more underrated hurlers, was an above-average contributor in a rotation. He tossed 164 innings of 2.41 ERA ball for the Nationals in 2014 but struggled in 2015 and ultimately lost his rotation spot with the Nats. Since that time, he’s seen his fastball velocity drop substantially, bottoming out at 86.2 mph in 2015 before rebounding to some extent over the past two seasons. He’s struggled to a 4.68 ERA with a near-identical 4.64 FIP across the past three seasons between the Astros, Red Sox and Rangers.

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