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Latest On Sonny Gray

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6:25pm: Houston may actually be setting its sights elsewhere at the moment, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (Twitter links). Indeed, he says it’s not even clear if the sides are engaged presently in “serious talks.”

He adds that the Athletics have “named their price” on Gray with the Yankees. While there’s no indication that those two clubs are near to a deal, that certainly suggests it’s still an open situation.

10:28am: Trade talks between the Astros and Athletics pertaining to Sonny Gray are “heating up,” according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links). Morosi adds that while Houston is in talks with the A’s, the Astros are also maintaining interest in trying to work out a deal that would net both Justin Verlander and Justin Wilson from the Tigers.

Rumors connecting the Astros to Gray date back to the offseason and have been persistent throughout the regular season. The Astros’ roster lacks a clear need, though most reports indicate that if they’re to make a splash, it’d be for someone that could step into the postseason rotation. Gray certainly fits that bill, as he’s rebounded from a triceps injury in 2016 and a lat strain earlier this season to look more and more like his old self in recent months.

Over the past two months, Gray has made 11 starts and totaled 68 1/3 innings with 9.0 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 54.9 percent ground-ball rate. The resulting 3.56 ERA is solid but appears unspectacular, however the Athletics have also backed Gray with one of baseball’s worst defenses. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (2.87) and xFIP (3.12) are much more bullish. It’s also worth noting that Gray’s past month has been especially impressive, as he’s posted a 1.62 ERA in his past 33 1/3 innings across five starts.

If talks with the Athletics do come to a head, the Astros will be getting a boost not only for their 2017 postseason chances but also through the 2019 season. Gray is earning just $3.575MM in 2017 — a slight silver lining resulting from last year’s injury troubles — and will be eligible for arbitration twice more before hitting the open market in the 2019-20 offseason. He’d slot into the Houston rotation behind 2015 Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel and righty Lance McCullers, who are controlled through 2018 and 2021, respectively.

The talks for Verlander and Wilson are another story entirely, as the hurdles involved with a potential Verlander trade have been well documented by this point. The 34-year-old Verlander is having a down season with more than $65MM owed to him through the 2019 season, and he also has a full no-trade clause that would allow him to veto any deal. The Tigers wouldn’t be able to both shed Verlander’s salary and command a significant prospect return for him, and given his status as an icon in Detroit, it’d be a tough sell to the fans to simply move him to shed his contract.

Adding Wilson to the talks would obviously sweeten the pot and could allow the Detroit front office to extract a more lucrative return, though they could potentially do better simply by trading Wilson in a standalone deal. Interest in the dominant setup-man-turned-closer has been extremely strong this month, and he stands out as Detroit’s best trade chip. Unlike J.D. Martinez, an excellent player that nonetheless commanded a lukewarm return due to a lack of a market for his services, more than a third of the league could conceivably have legitimately strong interest in Wilson.

Brewers Have Interest In Justin Verlander

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The Brewers have interest in Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander, reports Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (Twitter links). Milwaukee has been linked on multiple occasions to rotation pieces that it can control beyond the 2017 season, though there’s yet to be much of a serious connection to the longtime Detroit ace. Notably, Fenech adds that the Cubs are still monitoring Verlander and further reports that while the Astros have interest, their involvement in talks “has been minimal.”

Milwaukee is currently trailing the division-rival Pirates in today’s game and has seen its lead on the NL Central dwindle to 1.5 games with both the Cubs and Pirates on winning streaks. The Brewers have had a top-heavy rotation for much of the season, and that only became a truer statement when Chase Anderson, their second-best starter in 2017, landed on the disabled list with an oblique strain that is likely to sideline him into the month of August.

The obstacles standing in the way of a Verlander trade (to any club) are notable. Verlander is owed about $67MM through the end of the 2019 season and has a full no-trade clause that allows him to veto any trade scenario with which the Tigers approach him. He’s also in the midst of one of his worst big league seasons, although he’s been sharper over his past three outings, which may at least present scouts with some confidence that he’s rounding into form.

Whether that’s enough of a sample to convince any team — let alone a fairly low-payroll club like the Brewers — to take on a significant chunk of his remaining contract remains to be seen. The Tigers are reportedly willing to include “some” cash in a trade to help enhance the return they’d get, but they’d likely have to pay down a major chunk of the contract in order to both find a taker and receive meaningful prospects in return. The Brewers have a fairly clean slate when it comes to their long-term payroll outlook, with only Ryan Braun and Eric Thames on guaranteed contracts beyond the current season, but they do have quite a few important players up for arbitration raises this winter (including Jimmy Nelson, Chase Anderson, Jonathan Villar, Hernan Perez and Carlos Torres).

While it’s certainly possible that there’s some gamesmanship at play here — it’d behoove the Tigers to play up the interest of two closely competing division rivals, after all — the Brewers have been linked to controllable rotation help frequently enough that it’d almost be a surprise if they didn’t check in on the Verlander market and gauge the asking price. As for the Cubs, they’ve already acquired Jose Quintana from the White Sox, but there have been indications since that time that they’re still on the lookout for pitching help, and for a team with considerable payroll capacity and questions in their long-term rotation, the notion of acquiring Verlander and having some of his $28MM salary in 2018-19 offset undoubtedly holds appeal.

The Astros were said, as of this morning, to still be in the market for Verlander, though there have also been reports that talks between Houston and Oakland regarding Sonny Gray have begun to intensify. The Brewers and Astros have both also been linked to Tigers lefty Justin Wilson, meanwhile, as each team looks to upgrade its bullpen.

Latest On Astros' Deadline Needs

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  • ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick writes that the Dodgers and Astros have put themselves in such strong position that neither strongly needs to make a move prior to the trade deadline. However, both Dodgers president Andrew Friedman and Astros GM Jeff Luhnow are viewed as extremely opportunistic types and figure to look at ways to upgrade their roster anyhow. Crasnick classifies the Dodgers’ interest in Orioles closer Zach Britton as “legitimate” but notes that they’re a bit cautious due to his 2017 forearm issues. Ken Rosenthal wrote yesterday that L.A. is reluctant to part with prospects Alex Verdugo and Walker Buehler in trades, and Crasnick echoes that statement while also adding righty Yadier Alvarez to the list. While the three aren’t quite “untouchable,” none of the three seems especially likely to go. As for the Astros, they’ll continue looking for a starter that could join the playoff rotation behind Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers, though they, too, could look instead to a late-inning lefty like Britton or Detroit’s Justin Wilson.

Carlos Correa Out Six To Eight Weeks With Torn Thumb Ligament

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July 19: Correa announced today (via Instagram) that he’s undergone surgery to repair the ligament and that the operation was successful.

July 18,5:18pm: Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle tweets that Gonzalez is likely to see the bulk of playing time at shortstop, though Bregman could play there on days when Gonzalez is needed elsewhere on the field. Gonzalez can play first base, second base and in the corner outfield as well. Regardless, that combination will likely allow the ’Stros to cover Correa’s absence for the next month and a half or so.

3:12pm: The Astros announced devastating injury news today, revealing that shortstop Carlos Correa is expected to miss the next six to eight weeks with a torn ligament in his left thumb. Astros field reporter Julia Morales tweets that the injury will require surgery. Infielder Colin Moran has been recalled to replace Correa, who suffered the injury on a swing in last night’s game.

“Losing a player of Carlos’ caliber for an extended period is a big blow to our club, but I believe we have the roster to persevere and continue to win games,” said GM Jeff Luhnow in a press release announcing the news. “We do expect Carlos to return to the club in September and be ready to contribute down the stretch.”

That injury is the same ailment from which fellow AL West superstar Mike Trout just returned. Trout ultimately missed about six and a half weeks, although no two injuries are created equal, and we obviously don’t know if the extent of the tear is the same in each instance. But, that does serve as somewhat of a rough benchmark for Correa’s return to activity.

The Astros, meanwhile, will soldier on without one of the American League’s foremost MVP candidates for a significant stretch of time. On the plus side, Houston has a 15.5 game lead on the division, so the ’Stros aren’t really at risk of ceding the division to one of their rivals. Furthermore, Houston has a deep roster, with both Alex Bregman and Marwin Gonzalez capable of stepping in to play shortstop on a consistent basis. As such, a trade for someone such as Cincinnati’s Zack Cozart doesn’t seem particularly likely — especially not with Correa expected back well before season’s end.

Latest On Astros' Deadline Focus

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  • The Astros, too, would like to add a left-handed reliever and may find more of a difference-maker in that pursuit than in seeking rotation upgrades, Rosenthal writes in his column. If the Astros don’t land Sonny Gray, they’ll likely at least look at rotation rentals, but they’d have to be convinced that whoever they acquire is an upgrade over Charlie Morton and/or the returning Collin McHugh. A more definitive upgrade would be easily apparent in the ’pen.

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Astros Asked Tigers About Michael Fulmer

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Athletics righty Sonny Gray is an obvious target for contenders, and he’s among the players touched upon in a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today (which also delves into some analysis and predictions). The Brewers “may be the most aggressive” suitor for the Oakland starter, per Nightengale, with the Royals even entering the picture to some extent. He guesses, though, that the Astros are most likely to land Gray. That’s not to say that it’s Houston’s first choice; Nightengale says that the team spoke with the Tigers on Michael Fulmer but “came up empty.”

Latest On Sonny Gray

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  • Olney lists Sonny Gray, Yonder Alonso, J.D. Martinez, Justin Wilson and Pat Neshek as five players that definitively will be traded prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. All of those players are known to be available, with the Athletics and Phillies at differing stages of a lengthy rebuilding process and the Tigers aiming to pare down payroll by moving short-term veterans. But, Olney’s strong characterization of the likelihood is nonetheless notable, especially since both Gray and Wilson are controllable beyond the 2017 campaign. The Brewers, Cubs, Astros, Yankees, Braves and Indians are among the teams in the mix for Gray, though likely not all to the same extent. Alonso, meanwhile, has reportedly had talks with the A’s about an extension, though Billy Beane’s rebuilding comments yesterday certainly lend credence to the notion that a trade could be the likelier outcome.

Astros Have Interest In Jeff Samardzija

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Having finished as one of the runners-up in the Jose Quintana sweepstakes, the Astros are still looking to improve their rotation. That upgrade could come in the form of Giants right-hander Jeff Samardzija, on whom the Astros are “doing background work,” tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network.

Samardzija, 32, would represent a potential multiyear piece for Houston, as he’s under control through 2020 on the five-year, $90MM contract he signed prior to the 2016 campaign. He’s still owed upward of $60MM, which would make him an especially costly acquisition for a Houston club whose biggest contract is the four-year, $52MM pact right fielder Josh Reddick signed before the season.

In the near term, Samardzija, who’s on pace for his fifth straight 200-inning season, would provide a mid-rotation workhorse to an Astros team that could use one. While the Astros easily own the American League’s best record (61-29) and have run away with the AL West, which they lead by 16.5 games, their rotation hasn’t been the picture of health this season. Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers have pitched like aces this year, but the former has hit the disabled list twice with neck issues and the latter has been on the DL once and, over the past month-plus, has struggled to go deep in games. Charlie Morton has also missed extensive time this year, and injuries have troubled him throughout his career, while Collin McHugh hasn’t pitched at all and Joe Musgrove hasn’t been sharp after a strong major league debut last season. Fortunately for the Astros, Keuchel and McHugh are nearing returns, while Brad Peacock and Mike Fiers have stepped up since Keuchel’s DL placement in early June.

Despite the myriad issues in their rotation, including David Paulino’s season-ending performance-enhancing drug suspension, Astros starters entered Saturday atop the AL in ERA (3.86) and third in fWAR (8.2). Samardzija has accounted for 2.3 fWAR, making him one of the majors’ most valuable starters in that metric’s estimation, but the hard thrower hasn’t prevented runs at a pristine rate. Through 118 innings this year, he carries a 4.58 ERA, largely thanks to a career-worst home run-to-fly ball rate (16.7 percent), an elevated batting average on balls in play (.323) and a low strand rate (67.1 percent). Going from pitcher-friendly AT&T Park in San Francisco to Houston’s Minute Maid Park likely wouldn’t do his already high homer rate any favors, though his sparkling K/BB ratio (9.07) – which is No. 1 among major league starters – could help lead to somewhat of a turnaround in the ERA department.

While the Astros may push to acquire Samardzija, it’s unclear whether the Giants would trade him or whether Houston is one of the eight teams he’d block a move to. Giants executive vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean revealed earlier this week that the out-of-contention club is “open for business” as the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline nears, but he also plans to vie for a playoff berth in 2018. As such, the Giants could prefer to keep Samardzija in their quest to return to relevance next year.

West Notes: Hand, Harris, Wilson, Melancon, Richards

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About half of the teams in the league have expressed some level of interest in Padres lefty Brad Hand, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union Tribune reports. Evidently, those discussions have yet to get truly serious, as Lin adds that the Friars aren’t believed to be closing in on any swaps. A significant portion of the rest of the pitching staff has received attention of some kind, too, Lin adds. There are a few other interesting pitching trade candidates on the San Diego roster — Trevor Cahill chief among them, perhaps — and it wouldn’t be surprising to see several deals go down before the deadline.

Here’s more from out west:

  • The Astros announced that reliever Will Harris is headed to the 10-day DL with right shoulder inflammation (h/t Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle, via Twitter). That’s somewhat troubling news at first glance, though Harris says he doesn’t anticipate a significant layoff (video via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, on Twitter). The 32-year-old has continued his stellar run in Houston, compiling 34 2/3 innings of 2.86 ERA ball on the year — with 10.1 K/9 against just 1.3 BB/9. Clearly, he’s a key member of the pen and a big part of the team’s planning the rest of the way. (Harris is also controlled through 2019 at very appealing rates.)
  • Meanwhile, the Astros are likely focused on adding a starter and a lefty reliever. As regards the latter, the team is said to have an eye on Tigers lefty Justin Wilson, per Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network (via Twitter). The teams discussed Wilson over the winter, per Rosenthal, and the southpaw’s quality effort early over the first half surely hasn’t reduced the interest. Wilson currently carries a career-high 12.8 K/9 with 3.4 BB/9 along with a 2.36 ERA over his 34 1/3 innings.
  • Giants closer Mark Melancon seems unlikely to make it back before the trade deadline, likely removing him from consideration as a trade candidate, as Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News writes. The veteran righty, shelved for the second time this year with a forearm issue, has been able to pick up a baseball. But skipper Bruce Bochy suggested the team plans to bring him along slowly. As Baggarly suggests, it never seemed particularly likely that Melancon would end up being dealt regardless. For what it’s worth, though, I would add that Melancon would represent a very plausible August trade candidate if that proved desirable.
  • Angels righty Garrett Richards still hasn’t been cleared to throw, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes. The unfortunate hurler discussed the frustrations of his long-running effort to get healthy, telling Fletcher that he is at least encouraged that his current problem (with a biceps nerve) has improved somewhat — and that it doesn’t implicate his elbow, which he says still feels great. “Nobody knows anything about this injury,” said Richards, who says it isn’t clear when he’ll be deemed ready to begin throwing again. “I can’t worry about getting all caught up in playing right now,” he added. “I’ve got to worry about getting healthy first. When that happens, I’ll be ready.” Meanwhile, Fletcher notes that both Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs are continuing to progress while working off of a mound, which seems to hold out some real promise of bolstering the team’s injury-riddled rotation in the relatively near future.

Reactions To And Effects Of The Jose Quintana Trade

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After a nearly silent All-Star break on the rumor front, the Cubs and White Sox stunned the baseball world by announcing a blockbuster deal that sent left-hander Jose Quintana from Chicago’s American League club to its National League team in exchange for minor leaguers Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Matt Rose and Bryant Flete. Over the past 24 hours, both teams have addressed the media, pundits from around the media have weighed in on the swap, and others have reported details on alternative talks that each team had leading up to the blockbuster move. Here’s a before-and-after, if you will, of how what might be the summer’s biggest trade transpired…

  • The Yankees, Brewers and Astros were all involved in varying levels of trade talks regarding Quintana before the Cubs ultimately acquired him, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). The Braves, too, were in on Quintana “until the end,” USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. Meanwhile, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tweets that the Rockies were “never really in” on Quintana despite a potential need for some rotation upgrades with some of their younger arms sputtering lately.
  • The Cubs tried to engage the Tigers in trade talks on Michael Fulmer before acquiring Quintana, reports Nightengale in a full column. However, Detroit gave no indication that it was willing to listen unless the Cubs were willing to include both Javier Baez and Ian Happ in trade talks. They also inquired on Justin Verlander, per Morosi (also via Twitter), though he notes that, similarly, talks between the two sides “never gained momentum.”
  • While many were stunned to see the Sox and Cubs line up on a trade — their first since 2006 — White Sox GM Rick Hahn scoffed at the notion that their shared city would serve as an impediment to trade talks, writes Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. “This notion that we wouldn’t do business with them because they’re in town — or somehow we would actually take an inferior baseball deal for non-baseball reasons because of emotion or a rivalry or something totally unrelated to putting the best possible team on the field for the next several years — is laughable,” said Hahn. The South Side GM went on to laud Jimenez’s upside, calling him a potential middle-of-the-order bat with power potential and the ability to hit to all fields. Hahn adds that yesterday’s package was “far and away the best offer, the best possibility, that we’ve discussed with any club since we’ve started this process roughly a year or ago or so.”
  • The Cubs believed that they were out of the running to acquire Quintana after talking to Hahn in June, president of baseball operations told reporters (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times). Hahn, though, re-engaged with Epstein on Sunday night, and the two talked over the next few days, including a conversation that included Hahn ducking behind an exhibit at All-Star FanFest in Miami to avoid being seen (per ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers, on Twitter). Ultimately, it became clear that the Cubs would have to part with two of their very best prospects to get the deal done. “This deal had zero-percent chance of happening without both Eloy and Cease in it,” said Epstein. The Cubs president went on to say that they’ve been trying to acquire a pitcher like Quintana for “a long time” and added that his analytics and scouting teams “[dug] deep” to determine whether there were any changes that led to Quintana’s slow start t the season. “Our assessment on both fronts was that he is the same guy, and our staff felt that way with conviction,” Epstein said.
  • Also via Wittenmyer’s column, Epstein said that the team isn’t necessarily done yet, though their play in the next two weeks will dictate what other moves are or aren’t made. “We need to play well coming out of the gates here, and we’ll assess what we’re trying to do in large part based on how we play and where we are in the standings, and how realistic we think a World Series run is this year,” Epstein said. “Everything is still on the table for this year.”
  • ESPN’s Keith Law opines (Insider subscription required and recommended) that both clubs did well in the trade. The Cubs picked up a durable arm that has a near-ace-level track record over the past three years whose raw stuff “didn’t really waver” even through his struggles earlier this season. Quintana can help offset the loss of right-hander Jake Arrieta after the season, joining Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks in the rotation for the next several years. His contract is also affordable enough that the team can comfortably pursue rotation help on the free-agent market this winter. Law projects Jimenez as a middle-of-the-order bat and suggests that he alone could’ve been an acceptable return, though the inclusion of Cease sweetens the deal. Cease has questions about his command as well as his durability and may end up in the ’pen, though his velocity and pair of potentially above-average secondary offerings make him a nice upside play. Law notes that he’s been leapfrogged by a pair of pitching prospects on the Cubs’ organizational rankings, which might’ve made him easier to deal.
  • Both Nightengale and Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network opine that it’s ridiculous that this is just the second trade these two teams have made this decade and offer praise for Hahn and Epstein for their pragmatic approach to dealing with one another. Teams are making more rational and data-driven decisions than ever before, Rosenthal notes, ultimately surmising that that trend should also include a willingness to deal within the same city and within the same division.
  • Yahoo’s Jeff Passan writes that Quintana’s contract was every bit as important to the Cubs as Quintana himself. With significant arbitration raises looming for players like Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Hendricks, Javier Baez, Carl Edwards Jr. and others looming in the next two years, the team’s enviable young core is going to rapidly become considerably more expensive. Shedding money from aging veterans like Arrieta, John Lackey and Ben Zobrist will obviously free up some cash, but Quintana’s contract meets an important nexus of future payroll flexibility, remaining under the luxury tax and improving the near- and long-term roster.

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