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Heyman’s Latest: Astros, Verlander, Samardzija, Rays, Mets, Dickey

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In his weekly Inside Baseball column, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag takes a look at the tightly packed AL Wild Card race. He also provides some notes from both the American League and National League. Let’s take a look at some of the highlights of relevance to the transactional landscape:

  • While the Astros could still conceivably renew their pursuit of Tigers righty Justin Verlander, it may be that the talks are over barring a significant change of heart from one or both of the organizations. Heyman cites a source who said he felt negotiations were “put to bed last week.” In other news regarding Houston, Heyman says the club “never got serious” in their apparently limited pursuits of Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray or Yu Darvish in July, and one source indicated to Heyman that it never even made an offer for Quintana this summer. The Astros, of course, pursued Quintana extensively this offseason, so the front office was likely already well aware of Chicago’s lofty asking price for Quintana.
  • It seems the Giants have yet to place righty Jeff Samardzija on waivers, with Heyman suggesting it’s seen as unlikely he’ll be claimed when he does go on the wire. But the belief is that the starter could be targeted if he does clear waivers. Samardzija has carried compelling strikeout (160) and walk (23) numbers through his 155 2/3 innings on the year, though he has also allowed 22 home runs and owns a 4.74 ERA. He has turned in four-straight quality outings, it’s worth noting.
  • The Rays are interested in finding a right-handed hitter, according to Heyman, though it’s unclear just what the club might realistically look to do. Tampa Bay has not performed as had been hoped when the team reshaped its roster over the summer, which surely also alters the picture. Reserves such as Trevor Plouffe, Daniel Robertson, and Peter Bourjos have all struggled with the bat, though finding upgrades will be challenging at this stage. (As mostly goes without saying, the decision to part with Tim Beckham has not looked good thus far.)
  • After striking a variety of deals already, the Mets are “still working hard” to deal away more players this August, Heyman writes. Veteran outfielder Curtis Granderson still seems like the most obvious possible trade piece, though perhaps infielder Asdrubal Cabrera, lefty Jerry Blevins, catcher Rene Rivera, or even recently-acquired reliever A.J. Ramos could be moved.
  • The Braves are considering exercising their $8MM club option over knuckleballer R.A. Dickey for the 2018 season, per Heyman. That option comes with a $500K buyout, effectively making it a $7.5MM decision. The Braves are pleased with the 42-year-old’s durability, innings and leadership. Through 141 frames this season, Dickey has a 3.89 ERA with 6.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 49.5 percent ground-ball rate. Realistically, the club would be hard pressed to find better value on the open market and will need the innings next year.
  • Some clubs believe that the Angels are the team that placed the claim on Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler, per Heyman, who notes that Anaheim is still in the market for a second base upgrade. However, the Halos have only “limited” interest in Braves second baseman Brandon Phillips, who has reportedly cleared revocable waivers and is having a solid season at the plate.

Astros Acquire Tyler Clippard From White Sox

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AUG. 16: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the Astros sent $1MM to the White Sox in the trade, which covers the bulk of Clippard’s remaining contract. (Clippard was owed a total of roughly $1.14MM at the time of the trade.)

AUG. 13: The Astros have acquired reliever Tyler Clippard from the White Sox for a player to be named later or cash considerations, according to announcements from both teams.

Tyler Clippard[Updated Astros & White Sox Depth Charts]

This is the second trade of the season involving the 32-year-old Clippard, who went from the Yankees to the White Sox last month in a deal that saw major leaguers David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle and Todd Frazier head to New York. Clippard struggled to prevent runs this year as a Yankee, with whom he pitched to a 4.95 ERA over 36 1/3 innings, in part because of a bloated walk rate (4.77 per nine). Clippard did post a 10.44 K/9 with the Yankees, though, and allowed just two earned runs in 10 frames with the White Sox. The right-hander also added 12 strikeouts against five walks during that span.

The Astros have been quiet this summer in terms of trades, with longtime starter and now-reliever Francisco Liriano serving as their most prominent in-season acquisition. And while the Astros possess the best record in the American League, 72-45, and a bullpen that ranks fifth in the majors in fWAR (4.9), their relief corps has scuffled of late. Over the past 30 days, Houston’s bullpen has logged the league’s sixth-worst ERA (4.96).

Considering he has been successful with multiple teams as both a setup man and a closer since debuting in 2007, Clippard may help the Astros overcome their recent issues. However, as someone who generates a lot of fly balls (his 52.1 percent FB rate ranks fourth worst among relievers), Clippard might not be a great fit for home run-friendly Minute Maid Park. Nevertheless, he’ll slot into a bullpen that currently features a few other proven options – Ken Giles, Chris Devenski and Luke Gregerson – and has seen youngster Joe Musgrove dominate. The team could also be close to welcoming back Will Harris, who has been on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation since July 28.

For the White Sox, parting with Clippard likely wasn’t an especially difficult decision. The rebuilding club has been selling off veterans dating back to last winter, after all, and Clippard’s an impending free agent whom Chicago acquired in large part to help balance out money in its trade with the Yankees. Clippard is on a $4.25MM salary and is due roughly $1.14MM of that through season’s end.

Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network first reported that the Astros were trying to acquire Clippard (Twitter link). Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweeted that a trade was close. FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweeted that Clippard was indeed on his way to the Astros. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Luhnow: “Expectations Very Low” For Astros To Add Starter

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Astros GM Jeff Luhnow suggested today that he doesn’t anticipate making another significant acquisition this month. In an appearance on the Josh Innes Show on SportsTalk 790, the Houston executive said in particular that the team isn’t likely to add a starter.

“Right now I would set expectations very low that anything happens between now and the end of the month,” Luhnow said when asked about the possibility of bolstering the rotation. While he noted that the club will “continue to monitor” the market, Luhnow indicated there are no ongoing talks to pick up another arm.

While we heard yesterday that the ’Stros have had some recent chats with the Tigers about Justin Verlander, it also seemed that there was no real momentum toward a deal. The longtime Detroit ace is just one of many players to have cleared waivers this month, though he’s actually the only starter to have reportedly done so to this point.

Despite Luhnow’s understandably cautious comments, perhaps it’s still possible something could come together. Houston and Detroit have “a good understanding of the other’s position” in trade talks, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). That situation, he suggests, could yet set the stage for a late-breaking deal later this month.

Beyond Verlander, it’s tough to identify a plausible target for Houston during the August trade season. An unknown organization has placed a claim on Blue Jays righty Marco Estrada, though there’s no indication it was the Astros or that any deal is likely. A variety of other hurlers could also conceivably make for August trade candidates, though none have been tied to Houston.

While the Astros would surely like to upgrade their overall pitching mix, the team has made clear it won’t reach on a valuation to do so. And there’s little reason for the club to add an arm for depth purposes, with the division in hand and plenty of viable rotation pieces on the staff. If anything, it would seem the organization would have potential interest in adding a hurler worthy of taking the ball to start a postseason game.

It’s worth your time to give a listen to the remainder of the interview as well. Luhnow discussed a variety of topics, including the recent acquisition of Tyler Clippard — a pitcher the team has “had [its] eye on for a couple years” — and the outlook on young contributors Derek Fisher and Francis Martes.

Astros, Tigers Still Discussing Possible Justin Verlander Swap

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11:31am: The clubs have not been in touch “for a few days” and remain “apart,” Heyman now tweets.

10:31am: The Astros remain engaged with the Tigers about a possible deal that would send star righty Justin Verlander to Houston, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. Verlander has cleared revocable waivers, meaning he can be freely dealt — so long as he is willing to waive his no-trade rights.

Verlander, 34, is among the many players that have reportedly cleared waivers in recent weeks. While several organizations surely had interest in him at the trade deadline, his large contract — which includes about $7MM in remaining salary this year, $56MM in guaranteed money for the 2018 and 2019 seasons, and a 2020 vesting option — remains an evident obstacle.

Prior reports had suggested that talks between these organizations had failed to gain traction, though obviously the picture is always susceptible of change. There’s still “a decent gap” between the teams at present, Heyman adds, though it remains notable that there’s ongoing dialogue.

Even assuming Houston and Detroit can work out the money and agree upon a prospect return, there remains the wild card of the no-trade protection. It’s not clear whether Verlander would demand any consideration for accepting a deal, though there has been some discussion of that possibility — including the potential that he could seek to pick up an opt-out opportunity.

While there are obviously still significant barriers to a deal, there’s also clear motivation for both teams. The Astros will easily win their division, but their rotation has shown cracks over the course of the season and they missed on their top targets at the trade deadline. Verlander, meanwhile, has turned things around of late after a middling performance to open the year. In his last seven outings, he carries a 1.91 ERA over 47 frames, racking up a 50:16 K/BB ratio while holding opposing hitters to a paltry .187/.258/.327 batting line.

That surge has helped to boost the near-term and long-term outlook on Verlander. After showing some signs of slowing down in prior campaigns, he turned in a monster 2016 season in which he ran up a 3.04 ERA over 227 2/3 innings — though he was also aided by a .255 BABIP-against. While it’s fair to temper expectations given Verlander’s age, he is carrying a 95.7 mph average fastball velocity that sits above his career average and a 9.8% swinging-strike rate that lands just below his overall mean.

Finding A Left-Handed Reliever For The Astros

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Earlier today, MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal reported that the Astros are still on the hunt for left-handed bullpen upgrades. That’s a logical target for a team that missed out on the likes of Zach Britton, Justin Wilson and Brad Hand prior to the non-waiver deadline, but bullpen upgrades won’t be easy to come by in Houston.

The Astros have their league’s best record, meaning any AL player that is placed on revocable trade waivers will have to go through the entire league unclaimed before Houston has a chance. And, any National League player placed on waivers will need to go unclaimed by every other MLB organization to make it to Houston. In other words: any clearly desirable left-hander isn’t going to make it to Jeff Luhnow and his staff.

Houston has had some success in turning scrap-heap arms into key contributors, though, as the presence of Collin McHugh and Will Harris on their roster indicates. They’ll need to hope for similarly good fortune in their 2017 efforts to add a southpaw, as there’s no longer a clear upgrade that Houston can easily acquire. With that said, here are a few speculative avenues for them to explore…

Struggling Left-Handed Starters

  • Derek Holland, White Sox: Holland opened the season with impressive April/May ERAs that were backed by more dubious peripherals. He’s remained healthy but seen his results crater in recent months. But, he’s also held lefties to a dismal .216/.279/.333 line. A shift to a short-relief role would likely allow his 91 mph average fastball to trend upward, toward the 93-94 mph he used to average as a starter. Holland signed a one-year, $6MM deal this winter and is owed about $1.57MM of that sum.
  • Wade Miley, Orioles: Miley was brilliant in his last start and has turned in three useful outings in a row, but the Orioles still may relish the chance to escape the money he’s owed. Miley is guaranteed $2.23MM through season’s end and has a $500K buyout on a $12MM option for 2018. He’s been rocked for a 5.17 ERA (5.09 FIP, 4.57 xFIP, 4.98 SIERA) but has limited lefties to a lowly .211/.326/.289 output.

Sizable Contracts

  • Brett Cecil, Cardinals: Cecil’s first season of a four-year, $30.5MM deal has been a disappointment, as he’s averaging three fewer strikeouts per nine innings in 2017 than he has in any of the past three seasons and also has his highest BB/9 rate since 2014. Lefties have clobbered him in 2017, but Cecil has a solid track record and a contract that is extremely likely to clear waivers (if it hasn’t already). He does have a full no-trade clause, which adds to the potential complications, and it’s not at all clear that the Cards will be looking to make any such moves now that they have fully joined the NL Central hunt.

Bullpen Reclamation Projects

  • J.P. Howell, Blue Jays: Howell has missed most of the season due to discomfort and tightness in his left shoulder, but returned earlier this month and has made three appearances in August. Despite a mostly solid four-year run with the Dodgers, Howell settled for a one-year deal worth $3MM this winter. He averaged just 85 mph on his fastball earlier this year but has added another mile or so to that total since returning. Howell thrived with just an 86-87 mph average heater in L.A., so he’s had success at this velo level before.
  • Aaron Loup, Blue Jays: Loup is missing bats and has a ground-ball rate north of 55 percent, but his BB/9 rate is up from 2.5 in 2016 to 4.6 in 2017. He hasn’t had especially dominant numbers against lefties since an excellent 2012-14 run, but lefties that miss bats and have a chance to pass a decent ways through waivers are few and far between. Loup is earning $1.125MM in 2017 and can be controlled through 2018 via arbitration. Though he carries only a 4.62 ERA over the past three seasons, it’s at best questionable whether he’d make it to Houston on the wire.
  • Ian Krol, Braves: Krol posted a 3.18 ERA with 9.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 56 percent grounder rate as recently as 2016, but he’s had a disastrous 2017. Krol’s K/9 rate is down to 8.2, while his BB/9 rate has nearly doubled to 4.2. His gaudy ground-ball rate has plummeted to 40.2 percent as well. The 26-year-old has been clobbered by righties and lefties alike, but he can be controlled through 2020. His recent success and those years of control could lead a team to place a claim before he gets to Houston, though.
  • Josh Edgin, Mets: Edgin was already outrighted off the 40-man roster, so he needn’t clear revocable waivers to move. The 30-year-old’s K/BB numbers took a nosedive in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, though he did post a passable 3.65 ERA in 37 innings this year. However, even with that palatable earned run average, he still went unclaimed when placed on outright waivers in early August.

Solid Results, Limited Track Record

  • Daniel Coulombe, Athletics: Coulombe has posted quality FIP marks in the past but has never gotten his bottom-line results to line up with those indicators until 2017. Soon to turn 28, Coulombe has a 3.63 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 53.9 percent ground-ball rate in 39 2/3 innings.
  • Daniel Stumpf, Tigers: Stumpf turned in a nice performance in Triple-A, and while his strikeout totals haven’t carried over to the bigs, he’s been a useful ’pen piece in small sample. Through 22 1/3 innings, the former Rule 5 pick has a 2.78 ERA, though his secondary stats don’t support that mark. Stumpf has averaged 7.9 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 against a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate. He can be controlled through 2022, though he comes with an 80-game PED suspension on his record.
  • Sam Freeman, Braves: It may not be all that likely that the 30-year-old Freeman would get anywhere close to the Astros on the waiver wire. He’s having a nice season, with a 3.43 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a 59 percent ground-ball rate in 42 innings. He’s also controlled through the 2020 campaign. He’s bounced around the league via minor trades in recent years and signed a minor league deal this past winter, but his 2017 performance would almost certainly lead to more interest than he’s generated in the past.

Astros Place Brian McCann On DL, Designate Jordan Jankowski

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The Astros have placed catcher Brian McCann on the 10-day DL and designated righty Jordan Jankowski for assignment, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle reports (Twitter links). Jankowski will lose his 40-man spot to allow the club to select the contract of Max Stassi, who is needed to fill in for McCann.

It isn’t yet known what kind of absence McCann is facing, though it doesn’t sound like there’s too much cause for concern. The veteran backstop is said to be dealing with right knee soreness. Given Houston’s commanding position in the AL West standings, some down time for McCann won’t likely hurt.

In McCann’s steady, the 26-year-old Stassi will get his first MLB time in 2017. He has appeared very briefly in each of the four prior campaigns; while it seemed he’d get a longer look in 2016, that failed to come about due to an injury and Stassi ended up losing his 40-man spot.

Thus far in 2017, Stassi has turned around what had been a lengthy offensive malaise. Through 287 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors, he’s slashing .266/.383/.473 with a dozen home runs and greatly improved plate discipline (13.2% walk rate against a 23.3% strikeout rate).

Jankowski will not control his fate. He’ll either end up with another organization (via trade or claim), land back at Triple-A Fresno after being outrighted (without right of refusal), or be set onto the open market (if the ’Stros don’t wish to keep him).

Thus far in 2017, the 28-year-old Jankowski has failed to carry a sub-4.00 ERA for the first time as a professional. Through 40 1/3 innings at Triple-A, he owns a 5.13 ERA with 11.8 K/9 and 5.1 BB/9. Jankowski did earn his first MLB call-up, though he was knocked around in 4 1/3 innings, and could intrigue other organizations with his history of big strikeout numbers.

Astros Still Seeking Bullpen Help

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The Astros acquired Tyler Clippard last night and swung a deal to acquire Francisco Liriano prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, but they’re still on the lookout for relief upgrades, tweets MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal. Specifically, Houston hopes to add another left-handed reliever. Of course, with the best record in the American League, Houston won’t have a wide swath of quality relief arms from which to choose. The Astros’ stellar 72-45 record means they’re currently 14th in line for American League players that are placed on revocable waivers and dead last in line for National League players that are put through the same process. Desirable assets like Brad Hand, for instance, have no chance of making it to Houston via the waiver circuit.

From a purely speculative standpoint, the Astros could once again look at left-handed starters that have fared well against southpaws this season. Houston tried that route with the Liriano acquisition, though the early returns haven’t been pretty. Nonetheless, such an acquisition would come with a minimal or negligible cost. Derek Holland, for instance, has been effective against lefties but torched by righties this year and could likely be had for little more than salary relief. Alternatively, Houston could roll the dice on a struggling change-of-scenery reliever such as Ian Krol.

  • The Rangers have reached a pivotal point in their schedule as they hope to position themselves for a Wild Card berth, writes Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News. With a four-game series against a depleted Tigers roster and three games against the rebuilding White Sox, the Rangers have a favorable slate of games on the horizon. Texas is currently just 3.5 games out of the American League’s second Wild Card spot and is coming off a series victory over the division-leading Astros this weekend. The majority of the American League still has some degree of Wild Card hope remaining, and the final two weeks of August figure to play a large role in what August moves (if any) fringe Wild Card clubs will make before month’s end.

Astros Release Ashur Tolliver

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  • The Astros released left-hander Ashur Tolliver, as per Paul Braverman of the Triple-A Fresno Grizzlies media relations department (Twitter link).  Tolliver spent much of the season at Triple-A, where he struggled to a 7.13 ERA and 33 walks (against just 28 strikeouts) in 35 1/3 innings.  He also appeared in three games at the big league level for the Astros, posting a 3.60 ERA in five innings but also walking four batters as the control problems continued.  Houston outrighted Tolliver off its 40-man roster last month.

Justin Verlander Could Add Opt-Out Clause To Contract If Traded

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Thanks to Justin Verlander’s age (34), sizable contract and full no-trade clause, the odds of the Tigers dealing the longtime ace this summer already appear low. Here’s another wrinkle, courtesy of MLB Network’s Jon Morosi: According to the collective bargaining agreement, Verlander will be able to add an opt-out clause to his contract if he agrees to waive his no-trade rights. An opt-out would give Verlander a chance to exit the remaining two years and $56MM on his contract after this season or the $28MM left on his deal at the conclusion of the 2018 campaign.

Teams have already been reluctant to part with premium prospects for Verlander, and the opt-out possibility could make a trade even less likely as a result. On the other hand, it might not be that detrimental, Morosi explains. In order to mitigate the risk of an acquiring team losing Verlander over the winter, the Tigers could agree to pay that club around $10MM per year over each of the next two seasons if he declines his opt-out, a source suggested to Morosi. That would give Verlander a chance to test drive a new team before making an opt-out decision and give that employer “financial protection from injury or underperformance,” Morosi writes.

Morosi specifically focuses on Houston as a possible landing spot for Verlander, though he notes that it’s unknown if the Asros and the Tigers have made progress in talks regarding the right-hander. Both Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jon Heyman of FanRag have reported this week that there’s little to no hope for a Verlander swap between the clubs. Although, the Astros aren’t the only team capable of landing Verlander, who has already cleared revocable waivers. The Tigers are allowed to market him to anyone as a result, but again, there are major roadblocks in the way.

Amid the uncertainty, it’s worth pointing out that the flamethrowing Verlander has recovered from a so-so start to the season with a return to top-of-the-rotation form in recent weeks. Across 40 1/3 second-half innings, Verlander has logged a 2.01 ERA, amassed 44 strikeouts against 12 walks and held opposing hitters to an awful .177/.244/.310 line.

Astros Rumors: Darvish, Verlander

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  • The Rangers don’t expect to reunite with Yu Darvish in free agency, suggests Heyman, who adds that they decided a couple days before the non-waiver deadline that they were going to trade the ace. Texas ended up dealing Darvish to the Dodgers right before the clock ran out. The Astros were a rumored Darvish suitor leading up to then, but they didn’t make a real effort to land him, reports Heyman.
  • Speaking of the Astros, their talks with the Tigers regarding Justin Verlander are all but dead, per Heyman, which jibes with a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. “It never got close,” a personal familiar with the discussions told Heyman, and that source expects Verlander to still be in a Tigers uniform when the 2018 season begins. Houston was unwilling to deal any of its best prospects for the expensive, aging Verlander (or any of its other deadline targets), but a Tigers official told Heyman, “You’re trading an icon, you’ve got to get something back.” The Astros have been conservative in terms of making acquisitions this summer, surely because a 71-42 team doesn’t need a ton of help, but GM Jeff Luhnow’s lack of bold moves has led to frustration within the organization, writes Heyman. Ace Dallas Keuchel voiced some displeasure immediately after the club’s quiet deadline (only scuffling lefty Francisco Liriano came aboard), and outfielder Josh Reddick followed suit Thursday in an interview with MLB Network Radio (Twitter link). Astros players were “down in the dumps” after the deadline, Reddick revealed.

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