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Twins, Tigers, Giants Interested In Robbie Ray

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As free agent pitchers continue to fly off the board, AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray remains unsigned, though he is still drawing plenty of attention.  The Angels, Red Sox, and Blue Jays have been previously linked to Ray on the rumor mill, and The New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter link) also lists the Twins, Tigers, and Giants as among the clubs with interest in the left-hander.  In addition, Sherman says to “keep an eye” on the Rangers, which isn’t surprising given how much Texas has already splurged on free agent talent, including another top pitcher in Jon Gray.

Of the new teams in the hunt for Ray, it isn’t surprising to see Detroit and San Francisco listed, as both clubs have already been looking for pitching and been aggressive with some early signings.  The Tigers agreed to sign Eduardo Rodriguez for five years and $77MM, while the Giants re-signed Anthony DeSclafani and were reportedly close to also retaining another familiar face in Alex Wood.

While Ray would obviously be a huge help to either team, the argument can be made that San Francisco has the bigger need.  Just about all of the Giants’ 2021 rotation was eligible for free agency, and leaving plenty of holes to be filled around Logan Webb.  DeSclafani’s return filled one gap and Wood would fill another if he also re-signed, though Kevin Gausman left the Giants to instead sign a five-year, $110MM deal with the Blue Jays.  If there is a silver lining to Gausman’s departure, it could be that Toronto would seemingly be less likely to re-sign Ray, removing some competition from the Giants’ pursuit.

The Tigers, meanwhile, have a somewhat fuller rotation in E-Rod, Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal all lined up for starting jobs, though the latter trio are is long on promise but still short on experience at the Major League level.  Adding a proven veteran star like Ray makes that rotation much stronger, and also provides a full-circle moment since Ray formerly pitched for the Tigers during his 2014 rookie season.  Detroit acquired Ray from the Nationals for Doug Fister in December 2013, and then flipped him to the Diamondbacks a year later as part of a three-team swap with the Yankees.

Perhaps the bigger obstacle for a Motor City reunion might be the draft pick compensation attached to Ray for rejecting the Jays’ qualifying offer, as Detroit already gave up a pick to sign Rodriguez (who also rejected a QO from the Red Sox).  As a club who received revenue sharing in 2021, the Tigers’ penalty for Rodriguez was the loss of their third-highest selection, which will be either their second-round pick or their Competitive Balance Round pick, depending on which of the two CBRs the Tigers are drawn into this winter.

If the Tigers signed another QO-rejecting free agent like Ray, the Tigers would lose their fourth-highest selection in the 2022 draft.  Since Detroit still seems to be considering Ray, it would appear that losing two draft picks isn’t out of the question for the club.  The presence of the extra CBR selection does help ease the pain, and the Tigers have obviously built up a sturdy amount of young talent through their years of rebuilding.

Likewise, the Giants would also have to give up a draft pick for Ray.  Since San Francisco isn’t a revenue-sharing team and they didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021, the Giants would lose their second-highest pick and $500K from their international draft pool if they signed Ray or any other QO free agents.  San Francisco issued a qualifying offer to one of its own free agents this winter, though Brandon Belt ended up accepting the one-year deal to return to the team.

Minnesota is perhaps the most interesting of the new teams in the mix.  Like the Tigers, the Twins are a revenue-sharing recipient and also the holder of a Competitive Balance Round pick, which could mitigate the draft capital they’d lose to sign Ray.  The Twins also have a strong need for front-of-the-rotation pitching, since Jose Berrios was dealt last summer, Michael Pineda is a free agent, and Kenta Maeda will very likely miss the entire 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery.

Despite these factors, signing Ray to something close to five years and $130MM (MLBTR’s projection for the lefty’s next deal) would represent the second-largest contract in the Twins’ franchise history, and the type of financial outlay that Minnesota has traditionally preferred to avoid.  However, the Twins have been open to larger spending in other free agent pursuits in recent years, and swung such a notable deal with Josh Donaldson’s four-year, $92MM pact in the 2019-20 offseason.  Additionally, Minnesota just hit the nine-figure threshold by inking Byron Buxton to a seven-year extension that will be worth at least $100MM and perhaps significantly more if Buxton hits various incentive clauses.

Spending roughly $26MM on Ray in average annual value would boost the Twins’ 2022 payroll to around the $119MM mark, but considering the club finished the 2018 campaign spending around $131MM in player salaries, Minnesota would still have room to make other additions.  Plus, Miguel Sano, Taylor Rogers, and Tyler Duffey aren’t guaranteed beyond 2022, and Buxton and Randy Dobnak are the only Twins players on the books beyond the 2023 season.

Angels Interested In Luis Castillo

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The Angels and Reds have engaged in “preliminary trade talks” about right-hander Luis Castillo, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link).  No deal seems close, however, as “the sides are far apart as of today.”

While the Reds are known to be listening on offers for Castillo, latest reports have indicated that Cincinnati isn’t keen to part with either Castillo and Tyler Mahle.  As Morosi plainly puts it, the Reds’ “price remains very high” for Castillo’s services.

It costs the Angels nothing to just ask about Castillo, of course, and given how Los Angeles is scouring the free agent market for pitching, it isn’t surprising that the Halos are also exploring trade possibilities.  Noah Syndergaard has already signed with Anaheim, but the Angels could surely use at least one more starter for what is planned as a six-man rotation.  Right now, Syndergaard, Shohei Ohtani, Jose Suarez, Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, and Jaime Barria sit as the Angels’ top six choices.

Castillo is a good fit for the Angels for several reasons, starting with his obvious ability to be front-of-the-rotation type of arm.  Castillo is also controllable and affordable for two more seasons via the arbitration system, with Castillo projected to earn $7.6MM this winter.  Since the Angels have a longstanding aversion to long-term deals for starting pitchers, keeping Castillo on a short-term deal carries obvious appeal, especially since he would also cost much less than it would take to sign a top-tier free agent arm like Robbie Ray or Max Scherzer.

Of course, obtaining Castillo carries a different kind of steep cost.  The Reds’ specific demands for Castillo aren’t known, but it’s easy to imagine the team wanting a big package of high-caliber young talent.  Since Cincinnati isn’t pursuing an outright fire sale in its efforts to cut payroll, one would think the Reds might want at least one young player who can contribute in 2022, since the team is still hoping to contend in the NL Central.

Castillo has garnered interest all over the L.A. baseball scene, as the Dodgers have also reportedly had some talks with the Reds about a possible swap.  While it is safe to guess that multiple teams have checked in on Castillo’s availability, the Twins are one of the teams who haven’t yet shown interest, according to SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson.  Minnesota may have an even more severe need for veteran pitching than the Angels, yet it has been a quiet offseason overall for the Twins, with the exception of today’s contract extension with Byron Buxton.

Twins, Byron Buxton Agree To Extension

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The Twins and outfielder Byron Buxton have agreed to a seven-year contract extension worth $100MM.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) first reported that the two sides were nearing a deal, as well the specific size and length of the contract, while ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reported that an agreement had been reached.  The extension contains a full no-trade clause.  Buxton is represented by Jet Sports Management.

Rosenthal also has the breakdown of the financial particulars, which carry some notable extra incentives.  Buxton will get a $1MM signing bonus and a $9MM salary for 2022, and he’ll then earn $15MM every season from 2023-28.  An extra $500K in incentives is available if Buxton reaches various plate appearance thresholds (502, 533, 567, 600 and 625 PA).  Some major and “believed to be unprecedented” bonus money is also available to Buxton based on his finishes in MVP voting.  Buxton will earn $8MM if he wins MVP honors, $7MM for a second-place finish, $6MM for third, $5MM for fourth, $4MM for fifth, and $3MM if he finishes anywhere from sixth to tenth place in the voting.

Byron Buxton verticalThe deal secures Buxton’s future as a Twins cornerstone, and ends several months’ worth of negotiations between the two sides.  Talks over the summer didn’t pan out, which then led to speculation that Minnesota might deal Buxton at the trade deadline, though that scenario also didn’t come to pass.  The Twins reportedly offered Buxton an $80MM deal during the season, and more recent reports indicated that Buxton’s camp wanted extra incentives included in the contract that would push the value over $100MM.

Instead, Buxton now locks in a guaranteed $100MM, though at the cost of six free agent seasons.  Buxton (who turns 28 in December) was entering his final year of team control, and was projected to earn $7.3MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility.  Though that lens, this deal could be viewed as a six-year, $92.7MM commitment, though the wide range of potential bonus money could greatly increase Buxton’s earnings.

To work his way into the MVP conversation, of course, Buxton will have to stay on the field, which has been his biggest question mark over seven MLB seasons.  The outfielder has battled a wide variety of injury problems over the years, with just 493 total games played in seven seasons.  Buxton’s season high was 140 appearances in 2017, but his next-highest totals were only 92 games (in 2016) and 87 games (in 2019), plus he appeared in 39 of a possible 60 games during the abbreviated 2020 campaign.

With so many trips to the injured list, it isn’t surprising that it took Buxton a while to get his timing down at the plate, but his batting prowess has started to emerge over the last three years, particularly in 2021.  Buxton hit .306/.358/.647 over 254 PA last season, hitting 19 home runs and stealing nine bases in 10 opportunities.  Between this offensive production and his all-world defense, Buxton was worth 4.2 fWAR despite playing in only 61 of Minnesota’s games, due to a hip strain and a fracture in his left hand.

Buxton has never finished higher than 16th in AL MVP voting (in 2020).  His lack of playing time has undoubtedly cost him with MVP voters and also likely cost him multiple Gold Gloves beyond his lone GG in 2017.  As a result, this incentive structure seems like a decent compromise that works for both Buxton and the Twins.  The team gets some flexibility in making a major financial commitment to an injury-prone player, while Buxton both guarantees himself one life-changing payday, and allows him to benefit if he is able to stay healthy and consistently produce superstar-level numbers.

Minnesota doesn’t have much long-term payroll on its books, as Randy Dobnak is the only player guaranteed beyond the 2023 season.  The guaranteed portion of Josh Donaldson’s deal is up after 2023, so Buxton will essentially replace Donaldson as the Twins’ biggest-money commitment.

Locking up Buxton also seemingly erases the possibility that the Twins were going to take a step back or rebuild entirely following their disastrous 2021 season.  While Minnesota did move the likes of Nelson Cruz and Jose Berrios at the trade deadline, they didn’t engage in any kind of a full-on fire sale, preferring to try and rebound in 2022.  Buxton’s no-trade clause gives him control over his own fate over the next seven seasons, though if Minnesota did change course and look to make a move with Buxton’s blessing in future years, his contract is short enough on guaranteed money that interested teams would likely still be open to absorbing the deal.

The extension also has an impact on the center field market, as Buxton is no longer a trade possibility and Starling Marte (the best everyday option in free agency) signed with the Mets on Friday.  Teams looking for center field help are suddenly facing an even thinner list of possibilities.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Quick Hits: Red Sox, Hill, Twins, Cruz, Rockies, Black

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Rich Hill has already emphatically stated that he’ll be back for 2022, a season in which he’ll be 42 years old. But would the Red Sox be interested in a reunion with the Massachusetts native? “There is an interest, without a doubt,” Hill told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. “There’s a need on the other end. [But] the need for starting pitching is very apparent throughout the league — not just in Boston. It’s also many other clubs that need it.”

The lefty is certainly correct about the demand throughout the league, as starting pitchers have been flying off the shelves so far this offseason. In just over three weeks since free agency began, Eduardo Rodriguez, Justin Verlander, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Anthony DeSclafani and Andrew Heaney have all been inked already, with Alex Wood reportedly close to signing as well. Despite his age, Hill figures to garner lots of interest as well, given his solid 2021 campaign. His tally of 158 2/3 innings was the second-highest of his career, trailing only the 195 innings he logged as a 27-year-old in 2007. Between the Rays and Mets last year, he put up an ERA of 3.86 with a strikeout rate of 22.7% and walk rate of 8.3%, producing 1.7 fWAR in the process.

The Red Sox have already lost Eduardo Rodriguez to the Tigers, leaving them with a rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta and Tanner Houck, with Connor Seabold, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock among the options for the back end. There’d certainly be room to add Hill into the mix, though whether they prefer Hill to some other options on the market remains to be seen.

More tidbits from around the league…

  • After an excellent 258-game stretch with the Twins over three different seasons, Nelson Cruz was traded to the Rays before last year’s deadline. Although the club isn’t completely ruling out a reunion, it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be the top of their to-do list this winter. Dan Hayes of The Athletic spoke to GM Thad Levine about the situation. “In a most ideal case, when you’re building a roster you would like to have a DH spot as an open position to rotate guys through and give them a partial day of rest,” he said. “We have chosen to go a different route in each of the last couple seasons because we felt we had an elite DH.” As noted by Hayes, the club is going to be primarily focused on pitching for now, which makes sense given that they’ve lost Jose Berrios to trade, Michael Pineda to free agency and Kenta Maeda to Tommy John surgery. Cruz also struggled after being traded to the Rays, hitting .226/.283/.442, for a wRC+ of 96, raising questions about how productive he will be as a 41-year-old in 2022. But Levine still left the door open a crack, saying they “want to keep the DH spot open to allow for a bunch of players to rotate through that position, unless something exceptional comes our way, at which point we’d have to review it.”
  • Bud Black is heading into his sixth season as the skipper of the Rockies, which is also the final year of his current contract. In a recent mailbag, Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post says he heard that extension talks were ongoing, but that he “checked that out with general manager Bill Schmidt, who told me that wasn’t true. Schmidt added, however, that talks with Black are certainly possible in the coming months.” Schmidt was the VP of scouting with the Rockies from 2007 until May of 2021. At that point, he was named interim GM, in the wake of the resignation of Jeff Bridich, before officially getting the job last month. As he enters his first offseason in the GM chair, it’s unclear whether he considers Black to be part of the future he envisions for the franchise. Black, 64, has a record of 349-359 in his time with the Rockies and an overall record of 998-1072 when combined with his nine seasons with the Padres.

Twins Notes: Shortstops, Gregorius, Polanco

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Tigers shortstop prospect Ryan Kreidler has drawn trade interest from other teams, GM Al Avila told MLB.com’s Jason Beck and other reporters.  A fourth-round pick for Detroit in the 2019 draft, Kreidler hit a combined .270/.349/.454 with 22 home runs over 550 plate appearances at the Double-A and Triple-A levels this season, saving his best offensive work (.926 OPS) for his 162 PA with Triple-A Toledo.  This production came with quite a bit of swing-and-miss, but Kreidler also cut down on his strikeouts once reaching Triple-A. 

It seems like the 24-year-old might be able to help a team as soon as 2022, so it isn’t surprising that clubs are eyeing Kreidler as a potential trade chip, especially considering Detroit has been checking in on the biggest names in the free agent shortstop market.  Kreidler could be expendable if the Tigers sign one of those top shortstops, though Avila said that the team’s pursuit may not stop at the free agent market.  Trading for a shortstop is “possible.  It’s the hardest way of doing it, but it’s possible.”

More from around the AL Central…

  • The Twins are another club looking for shortstop help but don’t figure to spend big on the major names, as The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman and Dan Hayes figuring Minnesota will target a short-term name as a bridge to prospects Royce Lewis or Austin Martin.  It isn’t completely out of the question that the Twins go after a star (they had interest in Marcus Semien last winter, for instance) but players like Freddy Galvis, Jose Iglesias, or old friend Andrelton Simmons might be more of a fit.  As for trade possibilities, Gleeman and Hayes write that Didi Gregorius “was on the Twins’ radar last offseason” before he signed a two-year deal with the Phillies.  Gregorius struggled in 2021, however, which cost him a surefire starting job in Philadelphia next year, and might have also given the Twins pause about acquiring the veteran.  On Minnesota’s current roster, Jorge Polanco could be moved back to shortstop as a stopgap option, though the Twins would greatly prefer to keep Polanco at second base.
  • After signing Kendall Graveman to bolster the bullpen, the White Sox are aiming high and looking to now add a second baseman and “a front line starter,” according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).  Semien and Robbie Ray are mentioned by name, yet this could indicate that the Sox are just prepared to look at the top of the market to fill their needs, rather than necessarily a specific interest in either of those players.  This is itself notable given that the White Sox payroll is already projected for a new record-high for the team, and spending big on a player like Semien or Ray would take Chicago into luxury tax range for the first time ever.  Semien, of course, is already a familiar figure on the South Side, as spent his first two MLB seasons with the White Sox before being dealt to the Athletics in December 2014.

Twins Release Willians Astudillo, Outright Charlie Barnes

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Twins utilityman Willians Astudillo cleared release waivers and is now a free agent, per a team announcement. Left-hander Charlie Barnes, meanwhile, went unclaimed on outright waivers and has been assigned to Triple-A St. Paul. He’ll remain with the club but will no longer require a 40-man roster spot. Both players were designated for assignment Friday.

Astudillo, 30, made his big league debut with the Twins back in 2018 and has since displayed an uncommon skill set and fairly rare level of defensive versatility. “La Tortuga” has played every position on the diamond, with the exception of shortstop. Astudillo worked as a catcher and corner infielder with the Phillies in his early days as a prospect and has continued to add more positions to his defensive profile. He’s not considered a plus defender anywhere, but Astudillo embodies the “jack of all trades, master of none” profile quite well.

More interesting is Astudillo’s unorthodox skill set at the plate. As free a swinger as there is in the game, the right-handed-hitting Astudillo also possesses uncanny bat-to-ball skills. He’s struck out just 25 times in 533 career plate appearances (4.7%), but his frequent hacking has led to an even smaller 1.9% walk rate. Astudillo has a bit of raw power, but he swings so early and so often, with such high contact rates, that he rarely finds himself in position to get a pitch to drive. Since 2018 (min. 500 plate appearances), Astudillo has the third-highest swing rate (60.1%) of any player in baseball and the second-highest contact rate (91.5%) — trailing only his now-former teammate Luiz Arraez in that regard.

Astudillo was arbitration-eligible and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a $1.2MM salary in 2022. Coming off a .236/.259/.375 slash in 216 plate appearances, however, it seems the Twins preferred not to allocate those dollars or a 40-man roster spot to him — particularly with so many prospects needing to be added to the 40-man roster. (Minnesota selected six players Friday.) Astudillo can now sign with any team.

The 26-year-old Barnes is a former fourth-rounder who made his big league debut out of necessity to help soak up some innings in an injury-ruined season for the Twins. He was clobbered for a 5.92 ERA while striking out just 20 of the 175 batters he faced, however. Barnes is a strike-throwing changeup artist whose fastball averaged just 89.9 mph in the Majors. However, he did managed a solid 3.79 ERA with a 19.1% strikeout rate and a 7.4% walk rate in 76 innings at the Triple-A level. He’ll stick with the organization for now and hope for another opportunity in 2022. As it stands, the Twins have a perilously thin mix of starting options, but Minnesota is expected to add several starters this winter.

Mets Interested In Taylor Rogers

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  • The Mets officially bid farewell to a key lefty reliever this week when Aaron Loup signed a two-year contract with the Angels, and one name they’re intrigued by as they search for alternatives is Twins closer Taylor Rogers, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter link). The 30-year-old Rogers (31 next month) has been one of the game’s best lefties since a breakout 2018 season, pitching to a combined 2.91 ERA with a huge 31.2% strikeout rate and a tiny 4.9% walk rate. There’s no firm indication that the Twins would be open to moving Rogers, but he’s in his final offseason of arbitration eligibility and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $6.7MM in 2022. That’s plenty reasonable for a reliever with Rogers’ track record, but the lefty saw his 2021 season end with a lengthy IL stint due to a damaged ligament in his pitching hand. Rogers surrendered six runs in his final 3 2/3 frames before landing on the IL just prior to the July 30 trade deadline, and he was unable to return thereafter.

Twins Designate Willians Astudillo, Charlie Barnes For Assignment

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The Twins are designating utilityman Willians Astudillo and left-hander Charlie Barnes for assignment, the club announced. Additionally, left-hander Devin Smeltzer and outfielder Kyle Garlick have cleared outright waivers. Minnesota added six prospects to the 40-man roster in advance of tonight’s deadline for Rule 5 draft protection: Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Blayne Enlow, Cole Sands, Chris Vallimont and Josh Winder.

Minnesota also announced that they’ve agreed to terms on a deal with outfielder Jake Cave on a major league contract. He’ll make $800K, reports Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (Twitter link). Cave had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $1.1MM salary via arbitration. It’s not uncommon to see players on the non-tender bubble (as Cave appeared to be) agree to salaries for a bit lower than projected in advance of the non-tender deadline, however.

Amidst this large flurry of Twins transactions it’s the one jettisoning Astudillo that may grab the most attention. While the 30-year old didn’t quite get it done at the plate this past season, producing a .236/.259/.375 slash, his Twins tenure has often left fans looking past his offensive contributions. Dating back to his 2018 debut with the Twins, Astudillo has lined up at every position except for shortstop, providing adequate defense and pitching as admirably as one can expect in mop-up duty (including a 2.25 ERA in four 2021 innings). The multi-talented Astudillo is now all but certainly headed for free agency, though a reunion with the Twins later in the offseason isn’t yet out of the question.

Barnes, 26, is a soft-tossing lefty and former fourth-rounder who made his big league debut out of necessity to help soak up some innings in an injury-ruined season for the Twins’ rotation. He was clobbered for a 5.92 ERA while striking out just 20 of the 175 batters he faced. The Twins now have a week to trade Barnes or attempt to pass him through outright waivers.

Also gone from the roster are Smeltzer, a former Dodger prospect who came to the Twins in the Brian Dozier trade, and Garlick, an offseason waiver claim last winter who played a platoon role in Minnesota early this season. Smeltzer logged a 3.86 ERA through 49 innings during the 2019 season, his debut campaign, but has battled injuries and seen his performance dip in the two years since. He missed nearly the entire 2021 season due to elbow troubles.

Garlick, meanwhile, hit .232/.280/.465 with five homers and eight doubles in just 107 plate appearances. He hit 10 extra-base hits (four homers, six doubles) in just 63 plate appearances against lefties but spent the majority of the season on the injured list himself.

Most of the Twins’ additions are wholly unsurprising. Lewis was the No. 1 overall pick in 2017 and, despite missing the season due to an ACL tear, was never going to be exposed to the Ryle 5 Draft. Miranda was the Twins’ minor league player of the year and posted video-game numbers in the minors, hitting his way into Top 100 consideration. Winder has battled injuries but might be Minnesota’s top pitching prospect based on stuff alone. Enlow was an overslot third-rounder who has had his own injury troubles but is still held in high regard. Sands and Vallimont both rank among the Twins’ more promising arms themselves, even though Vallimont had a down year in 2021. The former Marlins righty, acquired in the trade that brought Sergio Romo to Minnesota and sent first baseman Lewin Diaz to Miami, is a potential fourth/fifth starter who’s reasonably close to MLB readiness.

Twins Continuing To Explore Trade, Extension Scenarios With Byron Buxton

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The lead-up to this past trade deadline for the Twins was highlighted by questions about Byron Buxton’s future in the organization. Minnesota discussed a long-term extension with his representatives at Jet Sports Management, but the club’s reported offer of an $80MM guarantee wasn’t enough to get a deal done. The Twins also fielded inquiries about Buxton’s availability in trade, but they ultimately elected to hold onto the star center fielder for the remainder of the season.

With Buxton now set to enter his final year of club control, the Twins are again faced with the question of how to proceed. The front office continues to explore both the possibility of a Buxton trade or renewed efforts at an extension, write Dan Hayes and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. While the club has remained in contact with Buxton’s camp this offseason, there’s been no progress yet on a deal. The sticking point in extension talks this summer, according to Hayes and Rosenthal, was the front office’s unwillingness to include incentives that could push Buxton’s earning potential around $100MM. Whether that’s still the holdup in talks isn’t clear.

The lack of progress on an extension could point towards a trade being a likelier outcome, but the Athletic writes that Minnesota chairman Jim Pohlad is hesitant to sign off on moving Buxton elsewhere. This summer, Pohlad forcefully pushed back against the notion of the Twins kicking off a long-term rebuild. Between Minnesota’s internal group of talented position players and ample payroll flexibility that should enable the front office to add multiple starting pitchers this winter, a return to competitiveness next season wouldn’t seem to be out of the question. That all adds up to a challenging decision on how the organization should proceed with Buxton, who is one of the game’s most electrifying talents when healthy.

The sport’s former top prospect, Buxton has demonstrated that upside when able to take the field. He’s perhaps the game’s best defensive outfielder, a former Gold Glove winner who has twice appeared on MVP ballots. And Buxton is coming off an equally remarkable offensive showing, hitting .306/.358/.647 with 19 homers and nine steals over 254 plate appearances in 2021. Among players with 250+ plate appearances, only Bryce Harper outhit Buxton by measure of wRC+.

Of course, the health caveat is an important one. Buxton has only once topped 500 plate appearances in a given year (511 in 2017). The 27-year-old landed on the injured list on two separate occasions this past season, losing six weeks to a right hip strain suffered while trying to beat out a ground ball and missing two months after fracturing his left hand on a hit-by-pitch. Buxton has also missed time with left shoulder, right wrist and concussion issues just within the past three years.

While the Twins are keeping all their options open, the team doesn’t have to pick an absolute course of action this winter. Just as they did over the summer, Minnesota could elect to simply hang onto Buxton into 2022. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a salary in the $7.3MM range in his final year of arbitration. The Twins could enter the 2022 season with Buxton on the roster and reevaluate their long-term options depending on the team’s performance and Buxton’s health over the first half.

That’s obviously a risky course of action itself. There’s always the looming possibility Buxton suffers another injury. Even if he stays healthy and productive, the team might not rebound as hoped. In that instance, the club would be left marketing just a few months of Buxton’s services at next summer’s trade deadline, where their return would likely be inferior to what they could pull in from clubs this winter.

Appropriately valuing a player with Buxton’s combination of raw talent, huge production and lengthy injury history is certainly a challenge — for each of the Twins’ front office, the player’s reps and other teams exploring the possibility of a blockbuster trade. That’s made all the more true by Minnesota’s atypical competitive situation, coming off a last place finish but with a clear desire to compete in 2022. That confluence of factors means Buxton’s future could be one of the bigger storylines of the upcoming winter, even though there’s no guarantee of any sort of resolution this offseason at all.

How Can The Twins Rebound From A Disastrous 2021 Season?

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The 2019-20 AL Central champs faceplanted in a 2021 season that was disastrous enough for the Twins to trade away longtime top starter Jose Berrios. Owner Jim Pohlad has made clear that the Twins will not go into a rebuild, so president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine will be looking for immediate help to remedy the roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Josh Donaldson, 3B: $50MM through 2023 (includes $8MM buyout of $16MM 2024 club option)
  • Max Kepler, OF: $16.25MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10MM 2024 club option)
  • Jorge Polanco, 2B/SS: $12.5MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10.5MM 2024 club option; contract also contains $12MM 2025 club option)
  • Miguel Sano, 1B/DH: $12MM through 2022 (includes $2.75MM buyout of $14MM 2023 club option)
  • Randy Dobnak, RHP: $8.55MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM 2026 club option)
  • Kenta Maeda, RHP: $6MM through 2023
  • Total 2022 commitment: $45.8MM
  • Total long-term commitment: $105.3MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Alex Colome, RHP: Twins declined their end of a $5.5MM mutual option (paid $1.25MM buyout)

Free Agents

Very little went right for the Twins in 2021. Byron Buxton looked like an MVP candidate when healthy but played just 67 games thanks to a hip flexor strain and broken hand. The 2020 Cy Young runner-up, Kenta Maeda, pitched through hip and elbow troubles before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Mitch Garver, Michael Pineda and Max Kepler all had lengthy IL stays.  Top prospect Royce Lewis tore his ACL before the season began. The similarly touted Alex Kirilloff tried to play through a torn ligament in his wrist before he, too, went under the knife. There was a team-wide Covid outbreak in late April. Nearly every free-agent pickup — J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Andrelton Simmons, Alex Colome — fell well short of expectations. Things snowballed quickly.

The end result was not only a 73-89 record but also a deadline sell-off that few would’ve expected on Opening Day. Jose Berrios, Nelson Cruz, Hansel Robles and Happ were shipped out for younger players — a series of trades that netted the Twins a trio of prospects who are all featured on at least one prominent Top 100 ranking. Austin Martin, Simeon Woods Richardson and Joe Ryan are now among the team’s top farmhands, and Ryan has already gotten his feet wet in the Majors.

That series of trades and a few free-agent departures leaves the Twins with quite a few holes on the big league roster. Based on the previously mentioned no-rebuild stance from ownership, it seems likely the Twins will seek to fill those holes this winter rather than completely tear down a roster that recently won a pair of division titles.

That does not, however, preclude the Twins from making further subtractions from the current group. Among the team’s prominent trade candidates are the aforementioned Buxton, Kepler, Garver and perhaps younger backstop Ryan Jeffers. Josh Donaldson’s name came up at the trade deadline and could do so again this winter.

The Twins and Buxton’s reps at Jet Sports discussed an extension this summer but were unable to come to terms on a deal. Reports indicated that Minnesota had been willing to commit $80MM over a seven-year term — a baseline framework amenable to both sides. However, Buxton’s camp sought a richer package of incentives in the event that the ultra-talented but oft-injured center fielder began to show more durability.

The Twins and Buxton figure to rekindle extension talks this winter, and Buxton’s case can only be buoyed by the fact that he closed out the season with a .314/.375/.686 slash in his final 112 plate appearances after returning from that ill-timed hand fracture. If the two parties can’t find a middle ground, it’s plenty feasible that the Twins will field offers on one of the more dynamic talents in the game.

In many ways, the difficulties in finding a common ground during extension talks would be mirrored in theoretical trade talks. Other clubs, particularly those seeking defensive upgrades, would relish the opportunity to install Buxton in center field. At the same time, he’s a free agent next winter, and his ongoing injury troubles will make teams wary of parting with too much in a potential trade. Buxton’s prodigious talent and repeated IL stints present the Twins with something of a conundrum, regardless of which path they explore.

Elsewhere on the roster, the Twins could look to capitalize on affordable control and organizational depth. Kepler’s huge 2019 season looks like an outlier at this point, but he’s a terrific defender in right field who can handle center and has 25- to 30-homer pop. He may not be an All-Star, but his blend of walks, power and defense are appealing even if aggressive shifting and an extreme-pull approach will continue to suppress his batting average. With a healthier Kirilloff, a more-experienced Trevor Larnach and the looming debuts of top prospects Lewis and Martin — both can play shortstop and center field — the Twins have some depth to explore outfield trades.

Behind the plate, both Garver and Jeffers have appeal as starting-caliber options. Garver has been one of the game’s most productive offensive catchers since his 2019 breakout (combined .254/.348/.546 slash, 135 wRC+). Jeffers entered the 2021 season as a Top 100 prospect, and while he didn’t hit like he did in his brief 2020 call to the Majors, he’s a strong defender with plenty of pop and untapped potential at the plate. He’s also 24 years old and under club control another five seasons. Garver is controlled through 2023. There’s room for both on the roster, particularly if Garver can spend some additional time at DH. Still, catching-needy clubs with pitching to spare (e.g. the Marlins) will surely be checking in with the Twins.

However the Twins proceed on the trade market, they’ll likely focus on young pitching in return. The trade of Berrios, the injury to Maeda and the potential free-agent departure of Michael Pineda leave the rotation in a threadbare state. Joe Ryan, acquired from the Rays in the Cruz trade, ranks as Baseball America’s No. 91 prospect and posted a 4.05 ERA with a 30-to-5 K/BB ratio in 26 2/3 frames down the stretch. (Ryan also won a Silver Medal with Team USA in this year’s Olympics.) Rookie Bailey Ober had a quietly strong showing, rounding into form after a rough start (3.59 ERA, 20.9 K-BB% through 67 2/3 innings from July 1 onward).

Beyond that pair of promising youngsters, there’s no certainty. That’s in large part due to the fact that the Twins’ injury troubles extended to the upper echelon of their pitching prospects, too. Each of Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino and Josh Winder missed time due to injury, as did fifth starter/swingman Randy Dobnak. The club will hope to extract some quality innings from that group, and perhaps Woods Richardson, in 2022.

The lack of current rotation pieces, however, will push the Twins to not only target controllable young arms in trade but also some veterans to plug right into the mix. The offseason trade market will include the likes of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray — any of whom could appeal to Minnesota. (Castillo and Gray, in particular, have multiple seasons of control remaining.) The Twins also have the means to be active in free agency; it’s just a question of the extent to which they’ll spend.

First and foremost, coming off a disastrous season, the Twins aren’t likely to appeal to a Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander type — an older, high-end free agent seeking to jump right into an obvious contender’s rotation. It’s true that we’ve never seen the Twins sign a free agent for more than Ervin Santana’s four-year, $55MM contract back in 2014, but Minnesota has made $100MM+ offers to both Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler in the past.

With that in mind, it’s worth taking a quick high-level look at next year’s payroll. Minnesota has just $45.8MM in guaranteed money on the books for 2022. Even after factoring in around $25MM of arbitration salaries and pre-arb players to round out the roster, the Twins will be some $50MM south of their record $129MM payroll. Non-tenders and trades of current players could create further space, but there’s already a good bit of room to spend.

It’d rank as something of an upset if they actually won the bidding on a Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman or Marcus Stroman, but the Twins at least have the payroll capacity to compete for those types of names. They were reportedly very interested in Stroman at the 2019 deadline, when he was traded to the Mets, and they’d be a plausible landing spot for a free-agent arm who’s still relatively young, such as Eduardo Rodriguez. There’s some mutual interest in a Pineda reunion, and other mid-rotation options include Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Jon Gray, among many others. The Twins need at least two, if not three options to stabilize the starting staff this winter.

Looking to the relief corps, things are similarly hazy. Taylor Rogers has been one of the game’s best left-handed relievers in recent years, but he ended the season on the injured list with a sprained ligament in his pitching hand. If the Twins are confident he’ll be good to go come Opening Day, a $6.7MM projected salary is plenty affordable. If there’s more doubt about his health, one can imagine they’ll at least debate whether to tender him a contract.

With Colome’s option being declined and uncertainty about Rogers’ health, the Twins will be on the hunt for an arm or two. The current front office regime has only signed one free-agent reliever to a notable multi-year deal — Addison Reed’s ill-fated two-year, $16.75MM pact — so there’s little chance they’ll play at the top of the market, where Raisel Iglesias should command a three or four-year deal with an eight-figure annual salary. Kendall Graveman, too, could be in position for a three-year pact, but it’s reasonable enough to expect the Twins could be in on just about any other relief arm this winter. History suggests they’re likelier to ink a couple of lower-cost veterans than dole out a hefty two-year deal — perhaps bailing out a reliever whose market didn’t develop as hoped (much like they did with Colome last winter).

Turning to the lineup, the Twins’ bevy of trade possibilities opens the door for any number of free-agent pursuits. They’re a clear fit for a shortstop now that Jorge Polanco has moved to second base and enjoyed a career year there. At the same time, when pitching is such a dire need, it’s worth wondering whether the best use of resources would be to plop down a nine-figure guarantee to one of the market’s top-end shortstops. Minnesota did have interest in Marcus Semien last winter, but there’s a difference between pursuing him as a potential bargain and paying top-of-the-market dollars on a five- or six-year deal this time around.

If Buxton and/or Kepler is moved this winter, the Twins have the payroll space to pivot and bring in a veteran outfielder. Nelson Cruz’s departure could open the door for Minnesota to move Miguel Sano to DH and explore first base options — be it a free agent like Anthony Rizzo or a potential trade candidate such as Luke Voit. Sano himself is a candidate to be shopped, though it’s worth noting that he hit .251/.330/.503 with 21 homers in his final 375 plate appearances. Perhaps it’s just coincidence, but that production began the day after the league’s memo announcing foreign-substance checks for pitchers. It also stands to reason that Minnesota will at least talk to the 40-year-old Cruz about a 2022 return after two and a half very productive years at Target Field.

If all of that seems rather ambiguous, it’s largely a reflection of the nature of the Twins’ current roster. While some of their division rivals have more straightforward paths this winter — the Royals will focus on bullpen help to supplement a young core; the Tigers are going to aggressively pursue a shortstop and a starting pitcher — the Twins are in a different spot. The core that emerged from their last rebuilding process is beginning to turn over, but the farm system is strong enough and the payroll clean enough that another multi-year rebuilding effort doesn’t seem necessary.

Acquiring pitching is likely to be a focal point, but the open-ended nature of the Twins’ lineup gives Falvey, Levine and the rest of the front office the ability to get creative in building out the roster. A straightforward pursuit of rotation help could result in signing multiple veteran free agents, but the Twins could also focus on the trade market for their starting pitching needs and surprise as a landing spot for someone like Rizzo or Trevor Story. Buxton could be traded for even more controllable young talent or signed to serve as a franchise centerpiece in spite of durability concerns. The Twins don’t have to trade Kepler or have to trade a catcher, but other teams will inquire. The possibilities here are much more plentiful than with most clubs, and the reality is that the front office can’t even know for certain how it’ll play out.

It all makes for a fairly fascinating offseason in Minnesota. As was the case with the 2021 trade deadline, Minnesota will be heavily involved in a broad-reaching number of storylines. The Twins might blur the lines between “buyer” and “seller” this offseason, but whatever shape their winter takes, they’ll be active.

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