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Poll: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

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Both the playoff field and the first-round matchups now have been set, so we can get on with deciding who’s going to be holding the Commissioner’s Trophy by the end of the World Series.  After 162 games (well, give or take a Marlins/Mets game that will now be scrapped entirely), the list of contenders has been narrowed to a dozen teams.

The Braves led all of baseball with 104 wins, and their spectacular lineup tied a Major League record with 307 home runs.  Leading the league almost across the board in significant offensive categories this season, Atlanta boasts MVP favorite Ronald Acuna Jr. as their top player, yet the incredible depth of the everyday lineup is a nightmare for opposing pitchers.  Injuries to Max Fried and Charlie Morton have left some questions about the readiness of the staff heading into the playoffs, but if Atlanta’s games start turning into slugfests, the Braves are more than well-equipped for that type of baseball.

Despite a huge swath of injuries to their pitching staff, the Dodgers still finished 100-62 and won the NL West.  It was the fifth time in the last six 162-game seasons that L.A. hit the 100-win threshold, and the Dodgers have now won 10 of the last 11 division titles.  All of that success, of course, has netted “only” one World Series title (in 2020) to date, and it will be up to Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman to keep carrying the offense while the somewhat makeshift pitching staff will try to produce quality innings.

The Orioles went from 110 losses in 2021 to 101 wins this season, winning the AL East for the first time since 2014.  Baltimore’s extensive rebuild led to a new wave of young talent (i.e. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez) providing a quick impact, while roster holdovers and unexpected hidden gems like Ryan O’Hearn all kept producing for a well-rounded team.  The rotation is either a question mark or perhaps just underrated heading into October, and the O’s want to leave no doubt that their team is for real.

The Astros went into the final series of the season not even knowing if they’d be in the playoffs at all, yet Houston ended up with a first-round bye and their sixth AL West crown in seven seasons.  The defending World Series champs have weathered a lot of pitching injuries and a bit more inconsistency than usual from their lineup, yet if any team knows how to turn up the volume in the postseason, it’s the Astros.

These four teams will get first-round byes, while the other two division champions and the six wild-card teams will have to survive the best-of-three first round.  The AL Central champion Twins and the sixth-seeded Blue Jays will meet in the postseason for the first time since 1991, with Toronto trying to win its first playoff game since 2016 and Minnesota trying to end an unfathomable 0-18 record in playoff games dating back to 2004.  Both the Twins and Jays have relied on recipes of strong starting pitching, solid bullpen work and (especially in Toronto’s case) excellent defense, while the offense has been much more hit-and-miss for each club.  A low-scoring series wouldn’t be a surprise, making things a tossup even though the Twins have the home-field advantage.

The Rays and Rangers spent a good chunk of the season looking like they’d sail to division titles, yet the two clubs will now meet in the Wild Card Series.  Tampa Bay’s ever-deep farm system just kept churning out MLB-ready talent, allowing the Rays to stay steady and win 99 games despite an injury-depleted pitching staff.  Texas had greater issues managing pitching injuries and a very leaky bullpen, and though the Rangers still ended up with 90 wins and a playoff berth, the Rangers’ relief corps stands out as perhaps the biggest weak link of any postseason team.

The Brewers went 92-70 to book their fifth trip to the playoffs in six seasons, with three of those trips coming via the NL Central title.  With a 35-20 record since August 1, Milwaukee has been somewhat quietly marching towards the playoffs in top form, even if scoring runs is still at something of a premium for a team powered by its hurlers.  The Diamondbacks have just about the opposite problem, as they’ll head into the playoffs with a -15 run differential and a season-long problem with rotation depth.  But, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly can be a problem in a short series, and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll will get his first taste of the postseason spotlight.

The Phillies and Marlins meet in an all-NL East edition of the Wild Card Series, with Miami holding a 7-6 head-to-head edge in regular-season play.  After falling short in last year’s World Series, the Phillies are looking to make another run through the entire bracket, setting up the dynamic of a seasoned, veteran squad against an upstart Marlins club who are in the playoffs following a full 162-game season for the first time since 2003.  A huge 33-13 record in one-run games helped Miami reach the postseason despite a -56 run differential — by contrast, Philadelphia was +81.

Looking at the list of twelve, who is your pick to win it all? (poll link for app users)

Marlins Designate Matt Moore For Assignment

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The Marlins are designating left-hander Matt Moore for assignment, as noted by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. Left-hander Ryan Weathers was recalled to take Moore’s place on the 40-man roster. The move comes as little surprise, as Moore’s contract is set to expire following the 2023 campaign and he was ineligible for the postseason after being claimed from the Guardians off waivers earlier this month.

It’s been a strange season for Moore, who signed a one-year, $7.55MM deal with the Angels this past offseason on the heels of a 2022 campaign that saw him post a 1.95 ERA across 74 innings of work for the Rangers. While Moore wasn’t quite that dominant in 2023, the lefty was still one of the better set-up arms in the game. In 51 2/3 innings of work this year, Moore has posted a 2.56 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate against a walk rate of 6.9%.

Despite those strong numbers, Moore has been placed on waivers twice over the past few months. The first time was by the Angels in August alongside the likes of Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez as a cost-cutting measure once the club was firmly out of postseason contention. He was claimed alongside Giolito and Lopez by the Guardians, who at the time were still fighting to stay alive in the AL Central race. While Giolito and Lopez remained with the Guardians down the stretch, however, Cleveland opted to place Moore on waivers once again in mid-September, once their chances at the postseason became remote.

That unusual sequence of events brought Moore to the Marlins, for whom he posted four scoreless innings as they fought to clinch a spot in the postseason. They did so with last night’s win over the Pirates, during which Moore struck out one while allowing a hit and hitting a batter during his scoreless inning of work.

As for Weathers, the young left-hander joined the Marlins at the trade deadline in a deal that sent first baseman Garrett Cooper to the Padres. In two games with the big league club in Miami, Weathers has struggled badly, allowing eleven runs in just seven innings of work while allowing as many walks as strikeouts (9). The lefty figures to help the Marlins cover innings and keep the pitchers they plan to carry into the Wild Card series on Tuesday fresh in today’s final game of the season. Looking ahead to 2024, Weathers could be an interesting multi-inning or even starting option for the Marlins, as the 23-year-old has posted a solid 2.54 ERA across seven starts at the Triple-A level since joining the organization.

MLBTR Poll: Josh Bell’s Player Option

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If one were to look simply at first baseman Josh Bell’s production since joining the Marlins back in August, it would appear to be a foregone conclusion that Bell will decline his $16.5MM player option for the 2024 season and test free agency. After all, Bell has posted strong numbers since being traded to Miami at the deadline: he’s slashed .266/.338/.474 with 11 home runs in just 51 games as a Marlin. Given the weak upcoming free agent class on the positional side, that sort of production would place him as one of the better hitters in the class, below top-of-the-class stars Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger but in the same conversation as the likes of Jeimer Candelario, Matt Chapman, and Jorge Soler.

Unfortunately for Bell, the decision isn’t that simple. The 30-year-old slugger has long been regarded among the streakiest hitters in the majors. Back in 2019, the switch-hitter appeared to be in the midst of a breakout season as he tore the cover off the ball for the Pirates in the first half, slashing an incredible .302/.376/.648 with 27 home runs en route to his first career All Star appearance. He returned in the second half having fallen back to Earth, however, and hit just .233/.351/.429 the rest of the way.

It was a similar story in 2022. Bell posted strong numbers with the Nationals for most of the season, slashing .301/.384/.493 in 437 trips to the plate. After being shipped to the Padres in a blockbuster deal alongside superstar Juan Soto, however, Bell struggled badly, posting a meager .192/.316/.271 slash line the rest of the way with a whopping 57.4% groundball rate. Those struggles prompted Bell to take a two-year, $33MM deal with the Guardians this past offseason with an opt-out after the 2023 campaign.

In 2023, Bell’s struggles came at the beginning of the season, as he hit .224/.330/.350 over the first two months of the season. While his final results in Cleveland were roughly league average (96 wRC+), they weren’t particularly close to the production Bell would have needed to show to justify leaving $16.5MM on the table this offseason to test the open market again. That said, his aforementioned hot stretch with the Marlins could have changed things for the 30-year-old, as it’s lifted his overall season slash line to an above-average .245/.325/.416. That figure improves to .256/.322/.449 in 96 games since the start of June, putting him in the same ballpark as his .259/.347/.453 career batting line.

While it’s unlikely that Bell would top his $16.5MM option by measure of AAV, nineteen hitters (including Bell himself) received a guarantee of $17MM or more last offseason. It’s not difficult to imagine Bell receiving more in free agency that Brandon Drury (two years, $17MM) or Justin Turner (two years, $21.7MM) did from the Angels and Red Sox last year. The aforementioned scarcity of quality hitters on the free agent market this coming offseason could also help Bell, should he decide to test the open market.

While first base is one of the better-populated positions this offseason, with players like Turner, Brandon Belt, and Garrett Cooper set to hit the open market after posting solid season, Bell has youth on his side relative to those veterans. He’ll play next season at age-31; only Ohtani, Bellinger, Candelario and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have posted above average offensive seasons among free agents younger than Bell, though Chapman, Rhys Hoskins and Teoscar Hernandez will also have their age-31 campaigns in 2024.

Of course, things aren’t completely set in stone yet, even as the regular season wraps this weekend. With the Marlins favored to make the postseason, it’s possible Bell finds himself at the center of a surprise push deep into the postseason for Miami and posts big enough postseason numbers to impact his impending decision, which will come shortly after the World Series.

What do MLBTR readers think? If you were in Bell’s shoes, would you exercise your player option for next season and hope for a stronger platform season in 2024, or would you decline the option in search of a higher total guarantee on the open market?

(poll link for app users)

Marlins Outright Chi Chi Gonzalez

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Marlins right-hander Chi Chi González went unclaimed on waivers over the weekend, per the transaction log at MLB.com. He was sent outright to Triple-A Jacksonville.

It’s the second time this season in which González cleared waivers after Miami designated him for assignment. Each of his major league stints was rather brief. He spent eight days on the active roster in May and three days with the big league club last week. Skip Schumaker has called upon him three times, with González allowing three runs over 3 2/3 frames.

The former first-round pick has spent the majority of the season starting games in Jacksonville. He has logged 121 2/3 innings over 24 appearances, working to a 6.07 ERA in a hitter-friendly Triple-A setting. González has thrown strikes for the Jumbo Shrimp but has only fanned 13% of opponents at the top minor league level.

González forewent an opportunity to test free agency when Miami outrighted him earlier in the year. He has that option again, though he’ll presumably stick with the Fish at this point. The 31-year-old will be a minor league free agent at the beginning of the offseason unless Miami adds him back to the roster.

Luis Arraez Day-To-Day Due To Twisted Ankle

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The Marlins recorded an important win over the Brewers today, allowing Miami to keep pace in the tight NL wild card race.  The Fish won despite Luis Arraez’s absence, as the second baseman didn’t play after making a late exit from Saturday’s game due to a twisted ankle.  Arraez had already missed a pair of games this week due to that sore ankle, and exacerbated the problem in somewhat fluky fashion on Saturday.  As he told MLB.com and other reporters, Arraez slipped while walking down the dugout steps at the conclusion of the eighth inning, in part because the ballpark had suddenly dimmed the lights for the entrance of closer Tanner Scott.

The Marlins recorded an important win over the Brewers today, allowing Miami to keep pace in the tight NL wild card race.  The Fish won despite Luis Arraez’s absence, as the second baseman didn’t play after making a late exit from Saturday’s game due to a twisted ankle.  Arraez had already missed a pair of games this week due to that sore ankle, and exacerbated the problem in somewhat fluky fashion on Saturday.  As he told MLB.com and other reporters, Arraez slipped while walking down the dugout steps at the conclusion of the eighth inning, in part because the ballpark had suddenly dimmed the lights for the entrance of closer Tanner Scott.

After that break, the Marlins will play their final six games of the regular season — three games against the Mets and three against the Pirates, all on the road.  Today’s result notwithstanding, it is hard to imagine the Marlins can push into the playoffs without the Major League batting average leader in the lineup, so Miami fans can only hope that Arraez’s ankle is okay after some rest.

Marlins Place Eury Perez On 15-Day Injured List, Select Jeff Lindgren

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The Marlins have selected the contract of right-hander Jeff Lindgren, per a club announcement. In a corresponding move, right-hander Eury Perez has been placed on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to September 21) with left SI joint inflammation. The move to the IL brings an end to Perez’s regular season, at the very least. He’ll also be unavailable for the Wild Card series of a potential playoff run, though it’s not currently clear if he could return later in the postseason, should Miami make it that far.

Perez, 20, made his MLB debut for the Marlins earlier this year. He was considered one of the sport’s top pitching prospects at the time and made an immediate impression upon reaching the majors with a 1.34 ERA and 3.03 FIP in addition to a 29.2% strikeout rate across his first nine starts. Miami made the decision to option Perez to the minors in early July with the hope of managing his innings total in 2023 while also keeping him available for the stretch run and a potential postseason push.

Things didn’t go according to plan, however. In addition to Perez landing on the injured list for the final week of the season, the rookie’s results have been far less impressive since returning to the majors in early August. In his last 38 innings (eight starts), he’s posted just a 4.26 ERA and 4.71 FIP. That late-season downturn in performance culminated in a three-inning outing against the Mets this past Wednesday where Perez allowed three runs (two earned) on three hits and three walks while stirking out just two. Overall, Perez will finish his first regular season as a big leaguer with a 3.15 ERA and 4.12 FIP in 91 1/3 innings of work.

The news comes on the heels of today’s announcement that ace right-hander Sandy Alcantara won’t pitch again this year. The news combines for a devastating pair of blows to the Marlins rotation as they’re in the midst of a late-season playoff. The club sat just one game back of the Cubs for the final NL Wild Card spot entering play today, but will now have to lean on a rotation group headlined by left-handers Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett. With veteran Johnny Cueto long since demoted to relief work, righty Edward Cabrera and potential depth options like David Smeltzer and Ryan Weathers will have to help carry the load in the absence of Perez and Alcantara going forward.

Lindgren is another such option. He’s spent the season riding the waiver wire with Miami, as this is the fourth time the Marlins have selected his contract this season. The right-hander’s stints with the big league club have been brief, but he’s posted a 5.14 ERA that’s only slightly below league average by measure of ERA+ (91) with a 4.69 FIP in his seven innings of work with the club. With a 4.88 ERA in a swing role at the Triple-A level this season, Lindgren could be a valuable source of innings for a rapidly thinning Marlins pitching staff over the season’s final stretch.

Sandy Alcantara Shut Down For Rest Of 2023 Season

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TODAY: Unsurprisingly, Alcantara confirmed today that he won’t pitch again in 2023.  “That’s the thing that broke my heart.  I won’t be able to go out there with my teammates and compete….Hopefully we make it to the playoffs without me. [I’ve] just gotta be here and support them,” Alcantara told Jordan McPherson and Andre C. Fernandez of the Miami Herald.

The Cy Young Award winner said that he and his agent haven’t yet met with Marlins management to discuss what’s next, whether that’s more rehab or whether or not Alcantara might require some kind of surgery.

SEPTEMBER 22: Defending NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara has been on the injured list since September 6. He was diagnosed with a sprain in the UCL of his throwing elbow last week but had still been attempting to make it back for the team’s playoff push.

Alcantara made a rehab outing with Triple-A Jacksonville last night. He got through four scoreless innings but informed the team after the game that he’d experienced renewed forearm tightness (relayed by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). He’ll likely be pulled off his rehab stint and rejoin the team this weekend while remaining on the IL.

The club hasn’t announced a timetable or the next steps in Alcantara’s recovery. They’ll surely proceed with caution with the star right-hander, which raises the question of whether they could decide to shut him down for the season. While Alcantara and the team clearly hoped he’d be able to pitch through the injury, the diagnosis of a UCL sprain inherently means there’s some degree of stretching or tearing in that ligament.

Alcantara hasn’t replicated last year’s success, when he threw an MLB-high 228 2/3 innings with a sterling 2.28 ERA. He has still been an effective rotation member for the Fish, allowing 4.14 earned runs per nine across 184 2/3 frames. Alcantara owns a 3.20 ERA since the All-Star Break while averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per start.

Miami has been without Trevor Rogers for the majority of the season. They’re relying on Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, highly-touted rookie Eury Pérez and Edward Cabrera in the rotation. They turned to a bullpen game for the final spot in today’s series opener with the Brewers. That hasn’t worked, with Steven Okert and Bryan Hoeing tagged for a combined 12 runs before getting out of the second inning.

A loss tonight will drop the Fish a game behind the Cubs for the last Wild Card spot in the National League. The Reds could jump a half-game ahead of Miami if they beat the Pirates. Miami will turn to Luzardo and Cabrera for the final two games against the Brew Crew. They’re off on Monday before finishing their season with road games in six consecutive days against the Mets and Pirates.

Sandy Alcantara To Make Rehab Start Tonight

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Reigning National League Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara was diagnosed with a UCL sprain earlier this month, but he’s set to make a rehab start in Triple-A Jacksonville tonight, the team announced. Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald, who first reported that Alcantara would start in Jacksonville tonight, tweets that Alcantara has had multiple pain-free bullpen sessions. If things go well in tonight’s rehab appearance, it would seem there’s a real chance that Alcantara could return to the active roster before the end of the season.

It’s surely welcome news for Fish fans, though also perhaps the source of some trepidation. With any injury to the ulnar collateral ligament — the ligament that is replaced in Tommy John surgery — there’s concern of a potential yearlong absence in a worst-case scenario. The majority of UCL injuries tend to result in surgery, though that’s certainly not a universal outcome. Masahiro Tanaka, Ervin Santana, Aaron Nola and Anthony DeSclafani are among the pitchers who have been diagnosed with UCL injuries but avoided surgery. The 28-year-old Alcantara will hope to add his name to that list.

It’s been a tough year for the Miami ace so far. Alcantara has taken the ball 28 times and eaten up 184 2/3 innings, but his 4.14 ERA is nearly two full runs higher than the 2.28 mark that fueled last year’s Cy Young win. Alcantara hasn’t experienced a velocity drop, but his strikeout rate, walk rate, ground-ball rate and home run rate are all worse than in 2022’s career-best season. He’s also given up hard contact at higher levels.

With Alcantara on the shelf, the Marlins have been using Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera and the returning Eury Perez — who’d previously been optioned to the minors to monitor his workload — as their regular starters. Reliever Bryan Hoeing took the ball this past weekend, tossing 4 1/3 innings in his first start since early July. Miami’s starter for tomorrow’s series opener against the Brewers is currently listed as TBD.

The Marlins don’t have any shot at winning the division. The Braves sport MLB’s best record and clinched the NL East some time ago. However, Miami is only a half game out of the third Wild Card spot in the National League. They’re trailing the Cubs for that spot and are one game up on the Reds in the standings. This weekend’s series against the Brewers is a tough task — particularly with Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta lined up to start for Milwaukee — but the Fish close out the season with seven games against the Mets and Pirates, who currently share identical 71-81 records. The Cubs finish with three games in Atlanta and three in Milwaukee. The Reds’ final games will be against the Pirates, Guardians and Cardinals.

Marlins Designate Chi Chi González For Assignment

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The Marlins have designated right-hander Chi Chi González for assignment, per Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase. His active roster spot will go to left-hander Matt Moore, who was claimed off waivers from the Guardians yesterday.

González, 31, signed a minor league deal with the Marlins in the offseason has been called upon a couple of times this year to help out a beleaguered bullpen. He was selected to the roster in May and was designated for assignment just over a week later after making two appearances. He cleared waivers and stayed with the organization, returning to the big leagues just a few days ago. He pitched an inning against Atlanta on Sunday, allowing two earned runs, and has now been bumped off the roster again.

Over those two stints, he has thrown 3 2/3 innings in the majors this year with a 7.36 ERA, as well as a 6.07 ERA in 121 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level. For his career, he’s tossed 288 1/3 innings in the big leagues with a 5.68 ERA, 13.5% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate and 42.6% ground ball rate.

The Marlins will place the righty on waivers in the coming days. Players with over three years of service or a previous career outright can elect free agency instead of accepting an outright assignment. González qualifies on both counts but may elect to stick with the Fish in the event that he clears, since that’s what he chose back in May and there’s so little time left in the season.

Marlins Claim Matt Moore From Guardians

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3:09pm: The Marlins have recalled Tommy Nance from Triple-A and placed him on the 60-day injured list, thus opening up a 40-man roster spot for Matt Moore, reports Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. The 32-year-old Nance last appeared for Triple-A Jacksonville on September 6, and he has not appeared in a major league game since last October.

1:35pm: The Marlins have claimed left-hander Matt Moore off waivers from the Guardians, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. It’s the second waiver claim in recent weeks for Moore, who just went from the Angels to the Guardians at the end of August. He won’t be eligible to play in the postseason for the Marlins but will give their bullpen a boost for the final weeks of the regular season.

Moore, 34, has had an up-and-down career as a starting pitching but recently underwent a bullpen renaissance. He posted a 1.95 earned run average with the Rangers last year and parlayed that into a one-year, $7.55MM contract with the Angels. His ERA has ticked up a bit this year, but is still quite good at 2.77. He’s striking out 28.5% of opponents and walking just 7%.

He’s now set to join his third club of the year, which says more about his teams than anything he is doing. The Angels hovered around contention through the summer and decided to go for it at the deadline, holding onto Shohei Ohtani as well as giving up prospects for players like Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López and others. But they then suffered a miserable August, losing both games and players. They fell back in the standings as Mike Trout was unable to get healthy in the wake of his hamate surgery, while Ohtani suffered a tear of his ulnar collateral ligament that kept him from pitching.

Ohtani would also suffer an oblique injury in September that stopped him from hitting as well, but that was after the club had already waved the white flag on the season, putting six players on waivers at the end of August. Since the trade deadline had already passed and each player was an impending free agent, the Angels were hoping other clubs would grab them and take on their contracts, allowing the club to save some money and dip under the luxury tax.

Moore was one of those players and he was claimed by the Guardians along with Giolito and López. It was a bit of a surprising landing spot, as that club has generally shied away from significant spending and were sporting a record of 64-70 at the time. But in the weak American League Central, they were actually only five games back of the division-leading Twins and decided to take a shot. By grabbing those three pitchers, they added roughly $3.727MM to their payroll but hopefully increased their odds of chasing down Minnesota.

But it now seems that they are following the Angels and waving their own white flag, having fallen to seven games back of the Twins with now less than two weeks left to play. It wasn’t known prior to this report that Moore was on waivers, but it seems the Guards put him on the wire with the hope of shaving off some of that money they took on. Moore is still owed about $529K for the remainder of the season.

It seems the Marlins consider that to be an acceptable expense for a handful of games from Moore. Since he is being acquired after the September 1 cutoff date, he won’t be able to pitch for them in the postseason, making this a very temporary bullpen upgrade. But unlike the Angels and Guardians, their season is still very much alive. The National League Wild Card race is extremely tight right now, with the Phillies in the top spot but a tangled mess beneath them. The Diamondbacks, Cubs, Reds and Marlins are all within one game of each other, with the Giants just a game and a half back of that pack. While all those clubs want to win, the Marlins are arguably the most motivated. Leaving aside the shortened 2020 season, they haven’t finished above .500 since 2009 and haven’t been in the playoffs since 2003.

Miami’s relievers have a collective ERA of 4.19 on the year, which places them 18th. It’s also been a bit worse of late, with a 4.45 ERA since the start of August. Adding in Moore will hopefully give the group a bit of a boost, though it’s not really about his left-handedness. The club already has four strong southpaw options in the bullpen but the Marlins seem to have decided they are willing to put some cash on the barrel in the hopes of squeezing out any possible upgrade, with the importance of each game magnified down the stretch.

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