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2017-18 Opt-Out Clause Update

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Recently, I took a quick look at all of the players with vesting options for the 2018 season, noting that many of the outcomes within will have significant ramifications for both the upcoming free-agent market and the future of those players’ respective teams. The implications are even greater for the eight players that have opt-out provisions of some type at the end of the current season. In some cases, the opt-out in question could either liberate that player’s team from more than $80MM in future commitments or saddle them with that same burdensome amount. (And, in most cases, if the player isn’t opting out, the remaining salary is indeed a burden, as the player either performed too poorly to opt out and/or got hurt.)

Here’s a look at the opt-out decisions that are looming at season’s end…

  • Justin Upton, Tigers: The disastrous start to Upton’s six-year, $132.5MM contract now looks like a distant memory. After struggling to a .228/.286/.369 batting line through his first three months in the Motor City, Upton has surged with a .255/.342/.535 slash and 31 home runs over his past 471 big league plate appearances. Strikeouts are still an issue for Upton, but he’s also walking more than ever (15 percent in 2017). He’s on pace to finish the season right around the 30-homer mark, and if he can do so with an OBP in the mid-.300s and respectable marks in left field — he’s currently at +4 DRS and +3.4 UZR — then the remaining four years and $88.5MM on his contract will pose an interesting decision for Upton, who is currently playing out his age-29 season.
  • Johnny Cueto, Giants: Cueto looked like an ace in his first year with San Francisco but has stumbled to a 4.50 ERA through his first 58 innings with the Giants in 2017. He’s still averaging better than eight punchouts per nine innings to go along with solid (but diminished) control. However, he’s seen his ground-ball rate plummet from 50 percent to 39 percent, and paired with the increase in walk rate (1.8 BB/9 to 2.5 BB/9), that has led to some issues. There’s still plenty of time for Cueto to get back on track, but the remaining four years and $84MM on his contract doesn’t look quite as easy to walk away from as it did just seven weeks ago. He’ll be 32 next season.
  • Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees: Cueto’s slow start looks Cy Young-worthy when juxtaposed with Tanaka, who has logged a ghastly 6.56 ERA through 48 innings in 2017. Like Cueto, Tanaka has seen his control take a step back, though his strikeout and ground-ball rates are consistent, and his velocity is fine. Tanaka’s average on balls in play is up, however, and his homer-to-flyball rate has skyrocketed from 12 percent to 24.5 percent. Given his age (29 in November), Tanaka would be a virtual lock to opt out of the remaining three years and $67MM on his contract with a good season. If he can’t overcome his home-run woes, however, he may instead opt for the substantial amount of guaranteed cash remaining on his deal.
  • Wei-Yin Chen, Marlins: Chen’s opt-out is perhaps the easiest to determine of any player on this list. Unfortunately for the Marlins, that’s due to the fact that he’s currently sidelined indefinitely due to arm troubles. Chen is on the disabled list with arm fatigue, though it’s been reported previously that he’d been pitching through a slight tear in his ulnar collateral ligament, which was sustained in 2016. Chen hasn’t pitched well as a Marlin even when healthy, and at this point it would take a quick recovery and a dominant finish for him to even consider opting out of the remaining three years and $52MM on his contract.
  • Ian Kennedy, Royals: Kennedy has logged a solid 3.74 ERA in 233 1/3 innings since signing a five-year deal with Kansas City, but he’s already in his age-32 season. His strikeout rate and control have taken a step back in 2017 as well, and he’s remained homer-prone despite pitching half his games at the spacious Kauffman Stadium. Kennedy turned in a very strong final four months in his last contract season — which helped him land this surprising contract in the first place — but it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll opt out of the remaining three years and $49MM on his current contract.
  • Greg Holland, Rockies: To be clear, Holland cannot technically opt out of his contract just yet. The one-year, $7MM contract that he signed with the Rox contained a $10MM mutual option that can vest as a $15MM player option if Holland finishes 30 games. At this juncture, though, it seems as if an injury is all that can stop Holland’s player option from vesting. He’s already finished 20 of the 30 games he needs, and he’s currently boasting a preposterous 0.96 ERA with a 26-to-6 K/BB ratio through 18 2/3 innings. Apparently, pitching at Coors Field suits Holland just fine, though if he keeps this up, it’s a foregone conclusion that he’ll turn down the one year and $15MM he’d receive for a second season at Coors and hit the market in search of a lucrative three- or four-year contract.
  • Matt Wieters, Nationals: The stagnant offseason market for Wieters’ services culminated in a two-year, $21MM contract with the Nats that offers Wieters the opportunity to test free agency once again next winter, if he wishes. To this point, it’s looking likely that Wieters will pass on that player option. His walks, hard-hit rate and BABIP are up, none of which has come at the expense of his strikeout rate. Wieters is hitting a solid .283/.358/.442 with four homers on the year. His caught-stealing rate is down (23 percent), and his framing remains questionable, but the improved offense makes it seem likely that, even if Wieters again struggles to find the strong multi-year deal he craves, a contract comparable to the one year and $10.5MM he can opt out of will once again be available on the open market.
  • Welington Castillo, Orioles: Castillo’s two-year, $13MM contract with the Orioles was a pleasant surprise for a player who had previously been locked into arbitration in Arizona before surprisingly being non-tendered. He’s off to a torrid .348/.375/.543 start to the season with four homers and six doubles through 96 plate appearances. There’s a fair bit of luck involved in that production, as evidenced by the 30-year-old’s .418 BABIP. But his strikeouts are down this season, and he’s thrown out a career-best 41 percent of attempted base thieves. His framing marks, while still below average, have improved on a per-pitch basis as well. His glove may prevent him from fully cashing in, but Castillo’s bat could make the remaining one year and $7MM on his contract easy enough to walk away from, assuming he’s healthy.

Marlins Select Vance Worley's Contract

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  • The Marlins announced that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Vance Worley, who will start their game against the Dodgers on Sunday. Worley hadn’t cracked the majors this year until now, having spent the first month-plus at Triple-A after inking a minor league deal in early April. The 29-year-old Worley hasn’t been great at that level, with a 4.43 ERA, 4.43 K/9 and 2.22 BB/9 in 44 2/3 innings. The well-traveled swingman has prevented runs at a respectable clip in the majors, though, evidenced by a 3.75 ERA over 595 1/3 career frames.

Marlins Outright Mike Aviles To Triple-A

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  • The Marlins outrighted Mike Aviles to Triple-A yesterday, as per a team announcement.  Aviles was signed to a minor league deal less than two weeks ago and was already promoted for a brief stint in the bigs due to Miami’s lack of infield depth, though Aviles was designated for assignment after Christian Colon was claimed off waivers.

Marlins Eager To Trade Dee Gordon

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  • “The Marlins would surely part with” Dee Gordon if they could find a trade partner at the deadline.  Miami was reportedly ready to deal Gordon for pitching help over the offseason, though no trade or even any significant rumors even materialized.  Gordon has hit just .263/.308/.326 over 522 PA since the start of the 2016 season, a year that saw the second baseman miss 80 games after testing positive for PEDs.  He is also owed $38MM from 2018-20 as per the terms of his five-year, $50MM extension signed in the 2015-16 offseason, further hampering the Marlins’ chances of finding a trade fit.

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Marlins Outright Steve Lombardozzi

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  • The Marlins have announced that infielder Steve Lombardozzi cleared waivers and was sent outright to their Triple-A affiliate in New Orleans. The veteran could have rejected the outright assignment in favor of free agency but accepted and will continue on in New Orleans in hopes of earning another big league look. The  28-year-old Lombardozzi appeared in just two games with the Marlins and went hitless in eight at-bats. He’s a career .260/.292/.333 hitter in parts of six Major League seasons (this year included).

Marlins Void Tom Koehler’s Optional Assignment, Place Him On Disabled List

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May 19: The Marlins announced that Koehler’s optional assignment has been voided due to the fact that he has been diagnosed with bursitis in his right shoulder. Rather than being optioned to the minors, he’s instead been placed on the Major League 10-day disabled list (retroactive to May 17).

Teams aren’t allowed to option a player to the minor leagues when he is injured, and Miami assuredly would’ve faced a grievance had Koehler been placed on the minor league DL rather than the Major League DL. He’ll now continue to accrue service time as he works back from his shoulder troubles, though there’s yet to be any indication as to how long he might be on the shelf.

May 16: The Marlins announced following tonight’s game that right-hander Tom Koehler has been optioned to Triple-A New Orleans. That’s a fairly surprising development not because of Koehler’s performance but simply due to the fact that the 30-year-old has been a mainstay in the Miami rotation since 2013. In fact, Koehler hasn’t thrown a single pitch in the minors since that 2013 campaign.

Over the winter, Koehler and the Marlins avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal that guarantees the right-hander a $5.75MM salary. Between that salary and the fact that Koehler has more than four years of Major League service time, he’s hardly the type of player that is typically optioned to the minors.

Of course, one would be hard-pressed to argue that Koehler didn’t pitch his way off the 2017 staff. The righty was tagged for eight runs on seven hits and four walks through just three innings tonight, causing his already unsightly ERA to balloon from 5.60 to 7.04. Koehler has already surrendered 10 home runs this year in just 38 1/3 innings, which has been the primary reason for his painful numbers.

The downturn in production for Koehler was rapid; prior to this season, he’d been a durable, albeit somewhat unspectacular rotation cog for Miami on a yearly basis. From 2013-16, Koehler worked to a 4.14 ERA with 6.8 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9 and averaged 30 starts and 175 innings per year. While his velocity and his K/9, BB/9 and ground-ball rates in 2017 have all remained similar to their 2016 levels, though, Koehler’s homer-to-flyball ratio has soared from 12.1 percent to 21.7 percent. While there’s likely at least some randomness at play there, his efforts can’t be aided by the fact that he’s seen a dramatic decrease in his first-pitch strike rate and his opponents’ chase rate.

Koehler will join fellow Opening Day rotation-mate Adam Conley in New Orleans, leaving Miami with a starting corps that consists of Edinson Volquez, Dan Straily, Justin Nicolino and Jose Urena. Left-handers Wei-Yin Chen and Jeff Locke are currently on the disabled list — there’s no timetable for Chen’s return — and the team is thin on options to replace Koehler. Conley could conceivably be a candidate, but he was only just optioned himself and didn’t pitch well in his first outing with New Orleans. Veterans Vance Worley and Odrisamer Despaigne are both with the Marlins’ Triple-A affiliate (Despaigne is on the 40-man roster; Worley is not) and could merit a look.

From a service time vantage point, the demotion could have serious implications for Koehler, who entered the year with four years, 16 days (4.016) days of Major League service time. He’d need to accrue a fairly substantial 156 days of MLB service in 2017 to reach five years of MLB service and position himself to be eligible for free agency following the 2018 campaign, so if Koehler spends even a month in the Majors it’d push his free agency back by a year. Then again, if he can’t right the ship, his production to date would likely result in a non-tender following the year anyhow.

Heyman’s Latest: Nats, Cutch, Marlins, Cole, Cobb

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Jon Heyman of Fan Rag takes a look around the league in his latest notes columns. In addition to providing updates on every National League and American League team, he takes a particularly close look at the Nationals in separate posts. Let’s take a look at some of the items of particular relevance to the transactional landscape:

  • The Nationals are beginning to put in phone calls to rivals as they start the search for a new closer in earnest, Heyman writes. Among the players under consideration by the team, at present, are a variety of names with differing contract situations. David Robertson of the White Sox, Kelvin Herrera of the Royals, and A.J. Ramos of the Marlins all have two years remaining at less-than-bargain rates (the latter two via arbitration). Alex Colome of the Rays and Roberto Osuna of the Blue Jays, meanwhile, bring more years of cheap control — and, in all likelihood, astronomical asking prices. Then there’s old friend Mark Melancon, who is in the first year of the four-year pact he signed with the Giants — who evidently beat the Nats’ offer over the winter. Needless to say, there’s quite a lot that could change that picture over the coming months.
  • Looking back a bit, the Nationals came closer than any other team to landing Andrew McCutchen from the Pirates over the winter, Heyman adds.Per the report, the sides held talks that “revolved around three players, including Lucas Giolito and veteran Gio Gonzalez.” It’s not immediately clear what else might have been involved, and where things went south, but it’s interesting to hear those parameters. The Nats ultimately pivoted to Adam Eaton, of course, but he’s now out for the year. Perhaps it’s conceivable that the team could take another look at McCutchen, though no doubt the teams would need to start discussions anew with Giolito in Chicago, Gonzalez a key member of the Nats staff and McCutchen struggling.
  • The Marlins sale talks had seemingly been building, but Heyman writes that there’s no deal ready to be made at present. For one thing, there are whispers that the purchase price will continue to drop as the organization’s financial health comes under greater scrutiny. For another, there are still questions about where the money will come from on the buyer’s side. “[A]t least the Bush-Jeter group and maybe the Romney-Glavine group, too, [are] still seeking investors,” per Heyman.
  • Two significant recent investments made by the Marlins aren’t delivering value at present. Per Heyman, lefty Wei-Yin Chen is headed for a second opinion with his elbow issue still failing to progress. It seems the team could be bracing for a relatively lengthy absence. And Heyman notes that some in the baseball operations department weren’t thrilled at the idea of extending Martin Prado last year at $40MM over three years. He has been playing well enough, but is back on the DL with a recurring hamstring injury.
  • Pirates righty Gerrit Cole has looked strong in the early going, but Heyman says the team may not be interested in dealing him even if they continue to lag in the standings. “We’re not in any rush,” a club source tells him. “I don’t think we’re there yet.” The 26-year-old owns a 2.84 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9; while the peripherals are largely in line with his 2016 work, the improved results are supported by jumps in swinging-strike rate (9.9%) and average fastball velocity (a career-high 96.1 mph). With two more years of arb eligibility to go, Cole would likely command a big price at the deadline.
  • While the Rays entered play today just one game under .500, that doesn’t mean they aren’t readying for the possibility of selling. Of course, given the team’s pitching depth, it’s imaginable that the team could send out a veteran while still maintaining hopes of cracking the postseason. Per Heyman, Tampa Bay has “already begun calling to get a gauge on the value of Alex Cobb.” Rivals also think the club will be amenable to discussing both Jake Odorizzi and Chris Archer, he adds. Cobb, though, is the most obvious possible trade chip. The 29-year-old was homer-prone in his return from Tommy John surgery last year, but has looked solid through 56 1/3 innings this year — his last before reaching free agency. He carries a 3.67 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 to go with a 47.5% groundball rate. Cobb still isn’t getting swings and misses like he used to, but his velocity is better than ever and he has tamped down on the long balls thus far.

NL East Notes: Marlins, Mets, Ramirez, Fedde

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Though a potential ownership change has many Marlins fans hoping for an increased payroll, FOX’s Ken Rosenthal argues that any new owners should operate in familiar fashion and tear down the organization with an aggressive rebuild. Miami’s farm system is barren, and the team already has as much as $95MM committed to players in 2018. Rosenthal suggests that the Marlins should prepare to deal some relief pitching and market breakout outfielder Marcell Ozuna — while perhaps also beginning to think about what to do with the massive contract of Giancarlo Stanton.

  • Plenty of other National League East competitors are struggling as well, with the Mets in particular playing well shy of expectations. As John Harper of the New York Daily News writes, there’s no easy solution for an organization that has been beset with injuries. The club’s short-term veteran assets are all fairly expensive, and all but Jay Bruce have had their own issues with injury and/or performance downturns. Having dealt from the farm in recent years, the upper ranks are somewhat depleted; and with needs set to arise in the near future, dealing from what’s left (particularly given the poor start) may not be advisable.
  • New Mets reliever Neil Ramirez discussed his recent signing with reporters including MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, who tweets a video of the righty’s comments. Ramirez says he feels he was throwing well with the Giants despite some poor earned-run results. When the Blue Jays claimed and then outrighted him, he elected to test the market in search of “an opportunity to stick” with another team. His deal with the Mets came together in very short order.
  • With the Nationals still struggling to find reliable relief arms, the team has moved top pitching prospect Erick Fedde into a bullpen role, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post tweets. While it seems likely that the organization still views Fedde as a starter in the long run, the consensus top-100 prospect may be of greater use in the near term out of the pen. He has impressed thus far at Double-A, throwing 42 2/3 innings of 3.16 ERA ball with 7.4 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9, and could conceivably function as a multi-inning option in the majors. While a deadline deal or two remains all but inevitable for the division-leading Nats, utilizing Fedde in that manner might provide a boost while limiting the need to part with young talent later this summer. Of course, the team tried something similar last year with Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez with less-than-ideal results, though both were still able to return a big piece in Adam Eaton over the winter.

Marlins Designate Mike Aviles, Shake Up Pitching Staff

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The Marlins have announced a host of roster moves, with the club designating infielder Mike Aviles for assignment to open a 40-man and active roster spot. He’ll be replaced by fellow infielder Christian Colon, who was claimed yesterday.

Righties Brian Ellington and Odrisamer Despaigne are coming up for Miami, as MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweeted last night. Veteran reliever Junichi Tazawa will hit the 10-day DL with what the team is calling “rib cartilage inflammation,” while starter Tom Koehler was optioned as expected.

The 36-year-old Aviles was only up briefly for the Fish, appearing in two games after a one-game stop at Triple-A. It seems reasonably likely that he’ll end up clearing waivers and heading back to the upper minors for a full ramp-up. He played in the World Baseball Classic, but did not sign until Miami came calling a week and a half ago as infield injuries mounted.

Times are tough for Miami, which has dropped to the NL East basement with a 14-24 record. The club has lost multiple key infielders and made several changes to an ineffective and injury-laden pitching staff. Colon will hopefully represent a patch for the infield, while Ellington will slot in the pen and Despaigne will offer a swingman option.

Meanwhile, lefty Wei-Yin Chen is said to have received relatively positive news following a recent MRI, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro (via Twitter). He’s still going to “need more time,” though, before he’s able to work back to the hill. Chen is currently on the DL with arm fatigue; it now seems he’ll miss a fair bit more time than had initially been expected.

Given the issues in the rotation, the organization is considering moving righty David Phelps out of the bullpen, Frisaro further tweets. Phelps thrived in both roles last year. While he’s carrying only a 4.05 ERA in twenty relief innings thus far in 2017, he has sustained most of the strides he made last year in his peripherals. Thus far, Phelps has maintained 9.9 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9, with an 8.1% swinging-strike rate that lags last year’s mark (9.8%) but handily tops his career average (6.6%).

Marlins Claim Christian Colon, Designate Steve Lombardozzi

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The Marlins have claimed infielder Christian Colon off waivers from the Royals, per a club announcement. Miami designated fellow infielder Steve Lombardozzi to create roster space.

[Related: Updated Miami Marlins depth chart]

Colon, who just turned 28, had played a limited role thus far for Kansas City in 2017 and was designated for assignment recently. He carried a .263/.323/.329 batting line over 348 plate appearances in his four seasons with the Royals. While that fell far shy of expectations when Colon was taken with the fourth overall pick of the 2010 draft, he did end up playing a notable role in the organization’s 2014-15 postseason runs.

The Marlins have scrambled to find infield help over the past several weeks amidst a wave of injuries. Colon will now take the place of Lombardozzi, who was hitless in eight plate appearances. He has appeared in just 34 MLB games since the start of the 2014 season, but had been a regular contributor for the Nationals before that. Lombardozzi opened the current season at Triple-A New Orleans, where he slashed .250/.289/.317 over 129 plate appearances. He seems likely to clear outright waivers and return to New Orleans, though due the fact that he’s been outrighted earlier in his career, he’d also have the ability to reject that assignment and elect free agency

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