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Marlins Attempting To Trade Jorge Alfaro

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The Marlins are hoping to find a trade partner for catcher Jorge Alfaro before tomorrow evening’s non-tender deadline, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (on Twitter). The Padres are among the teams expressing interest in the 28-year-old backstop, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter).

That Alfaro is on the trade block is hardly a shock. He’s long been mentioned as a potential non-tender candidate, and Miami landed Jacob Stallings from the Pirates this afternoon to supplant him behind the dish. It’d register as a surprise if Alfaro were still on the Marlins’ roster 24 hours from now, as he seems likely to be non-tendered if not traded.

With Alfaro likely to otherwise be cut loose for nothing, it makes sense for general manager Kim Ng and her staff to see if they can bring back anything of value. The right-handed hitting backstop is a former top prospect who has flashed an intriguing blend of power and arm strength at times, but his combination of huge strikeout totals and well below-average walk rates have yet kept him from settling in as an above-average regular.

As Morosi notes, Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was a key figure in the Rangers’ scouting department when Texas signed Alfaro as an amateur out of Colombia back in 2010. Preller has shown an affinity for bringing in former Rangers, but Alfaro would be a bit of a curious fit on paper. San Diego already has a capable #1 catcher in Austin Nola, and Víctor Caratini is on hand as a serviceable back-up. Top prospect Luis Campusano, meanwhile, has already appeared in the majors and is coming off a strong season with Triple-A El Paso.

Were the Padres or anyone else to swing a trade for Alfaro, they’d be able to control him through the end of 2023 via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to bring in a 2022 salary in the $2.7MM range if tendered a contract.

Marlins Acquire Jacob Stallings From Pirates

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The Marlins have announced the acquisition of Gold Glove catcher Jacob Stallings from the Pirates. In exchange, Pittsburgh acquires righty Zach Thompson in addition to right-handed pitching prospect Kyle Nicolas and outfield prospect Connor Scott. Miami was connected to Stallings earlier this morning.

Jacob Stallings | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The 31-year-old Stallings (32 next month) will come to the Marlins with three years of club control remaining and give the Fish a standout defensive catcher to pair with their burgeoning young pitching staff. While his offensive numbers don’t stand out — Stallings has batted .251/.331/.374 with 17 homers, 32 doubles and a triple in 780 plate appearances dating back to 2019 — the 2021 Gold Glover is one of the best defensive players in the sport, regardless of position.

Over the past three seasons, Stallings has racked up 42 Defensive Runs Saved, including 21 DRS this past season. He notched an imposing 36.2% caught-stealing rate from 2019-20 and has a career 27% mark, though it’s worth noting that he slipped to 21% in that department this past season. Each of Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs and Statcast peg Stallings as an above-average pitch framer, and Prospectus credits his ability to block pitches in the dirt as plus as well.

Projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a $2.6MM salary in 2022, Stallings is highly affordable in terms of salary — and he can be controlled via arbitration through the 2024 season. For a low-payroll club that is building around what it hopes will emerge as a dominant young pitching staff, Stallings is a highly sensible addition. Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Elieser Hernandez, Max Meyer and others will all likely benefit from his framing and game-calling prowess.

Looking to the Pittsburgh’s return, they’ll add an immediate rotation piece (Thompson) in addition to a pair of promising young arms. The 28-year-old Thompson proved to be an outstanding pickup on a minor league deal last winter after the White Sox allowed him to become a free agent.

Thompson, a former fifth-rounder, gave the Marlins 75 innings of 3.24 ERA/3.69 FIP ball over the life of 26 appearances, including 14 starts. His 21% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate aren’t exactly dominant numbers, but Thompson thrived in terms of generating weak contact; his 87.6 mph average exit velocity ranked in the 76th percentile of MLB hurlers, while his 33.9% hard-hit rate checked into the 82nd percentile. The spin rate on his four-seamer is also in the 92nd percentile.

Zach Thompson | Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports

While Thompson won’t be mistaken for a top-of-the-rotation arm, he’ll give the Bucs six years of club control and won’t be eligible for arbitration until at least the 2023-24 offseason. (At 121 days of service in his debut season, he’ll be on the bubble of Super Two status, barring fundamental changes to the arbitration system in collective bargaining negotiations.) As it stands right now, Pittsburgh controls Thompson all the way through the 2027 season.

Nicolas, 22, was Miami’s second-round pick in the 2020 draft and ranked 23rd among their prospects on Baseball America’s midseason Top 30 list. He landed 16th at MLB.com and 18th among Miami farmhands on Eric Longenhagen’s rankings at FanGraphs. The Ball State product pitched to a combined 4.18 ERA through 99 innings of Class-A Advanced and Double-A ball this season, pitching more effectively at the more advanced of those two levels. Nicolas punched out 32% off his opponents this year, albeit with a somewhat bloated 11.5% walk rate. Miami has developed him as a starter to this point, but with a heater that reaches the upper 90s and a plus slider, it’s possible he’ll ultimately move to the bullpen.

Scott, meanwhile, was Miami’s first-round pick back in 2018. While he still landed in the middle tiers of the Miami system at both FanGraphs and MLB.com, Scott’s stock has dipped a bit since that lofty selection. (The lack of a minor league season in 2020 surely didn’t help his development.) Scott spent the 2021 season in Class-A Advanced, where he posted a solid .276/.333/.446 batting line with 10 homers and 14 steals, and reports on him suggest that he’s capable of playing a quality center field and hitting near the top of the lineup if things pan out. Scott only recently turned 22, and with a pretty good showing at Class-A Advanced under his belt, he could be ticketed for Double-A Altoona in 2022.

Pittsburgh doesn’t have an immediate heir-apparent to take the reins if Stallings, but the lack of an immediate successor in Pittsburgh served as little deterrent from jumping at what they surely view as a strong offer. The Pirates aren’t contending in 2022 anyhow, and the free-agent market has a number of veteran options who could be plugged in as a stopgap while the team waits on 2021 No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis to develop in the minors.

It’s a different story in Miami, where they’ve been on the hunt for a catcher for the better part of the past year. Miami has designs on stepping out of the NL East cellar and into playoff contention, and a move to both sharpen the team’s overall defense and help maximize the pitching staff is a strong step in that regard. Stallings won’t do much to bolster a lineup that was already lacking in power, but he’ll draw plenty of walks and provide the type of sage catcher that clubs often seek when building around young rotations.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Marlins were nearing agreement on a deal to acquire Stallings. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported the Pirates were acquiring Thompson, Nicolas and Scott in return.

Photos courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

Nick Castellanos Reportedly Seeking Seven- Or Eight-Year Deal

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10:08am: The Phillies have had recent talks with Castellanos, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. As he points out, Philadelphia president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was GM in Detroit when the Tigers selected Castellanos with the No. 44 overall draft pick.

7:36am: As a strong season for Nick Castellanos progressed in Cincinnati, it became increasingly obvious that the slugger would opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM on his contract in favor of a return to the free-agent market. Castellanos, however, is perhaps seeking an even larger payday than most would expect; MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that Castellanos and agent Scott Boras are eyeing a contract of seven or even eight years in length. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted this morning that the Marlins still have interest in Castellanos even after landing Avisail Garcia, though Feinsand suggests Castellanos’ asking price is too rich for Miami’s liking.

The 29-year-old Castellanos (30 in March) posted a huge .309/.362/.576 slash with 34 home runs, 38 doubles, a triple and three steals through 585 plate appearances this past season. Castellanos briefly missed time due to a microfracture in his wrist, but he shook off the rust almost immediately upon returning and closed out the year on a .294/.335/.606 heater through the final six weeks or so of play (176 plate appearances).

Excellent as Castellanos is and has been at the plate, seven and eight years are stills jarring numbers. Castellanos’ glovework has been consistently panned by defensive metrics — both at his original position (third base) and since moving to right field on a full-time basis in 2018. The 2021 season was no exception, as virtually any metric (-7 Defensive Runs Saved, -1.9 Ultimate Zone Rating, -7 Outs Above Average) framed Castellanos as a liability in right. He also rejected a qualifying offer from the Reds, meaning any team that signs him will be subject to draft-pick forfeiture.

To his credit, Castellanos is far from a one-year wonder — even if the 2021 season was his most productive to date. While a poor three-week finish in the shortened 2020 season tanked his season numbers, he still finished with league-average output, per both wRC+ and OPS+, and he’s been consistently strong at the dish outside that season. Both wRC+ and OPS+ suggest Castellanos has been about 22 percent better than the league-average hitter dating all the way back to 2016, and his bat truly soared to new heights upon being traded from the Tigers to Cubs. Even when including that average 2020 output, Castellanos carries a .292/.346/.571 batting line (134 wRC+) through 1052 plate appearances since leaving Detroit.

It’s commonplace for agents to aim for the moon in free agency, and while it can oftentimes burn a player, there are also deals of surprising magnitude each winter. (Few would’ve expected Marcus Semien to command a seven-year deal this winter, for instance.) It’d be a surprise to see Castellanos command such a weighty commitment, but he’s arguably the best bat available in free agency this offseason and would clearly benefit from the widely expected advent of the universal designated hitter.

Pirates’ Jacob Stallings Drawing Trade Interest

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Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings is generating trade interest from clubs seeking help behind the plate, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. He lists both the Marlins and Yankees as possible matches in a trade.

Stallings, 32 next month, won’t wow anyone with his offensive numbers but is widely regarded as one of the best defensive catchers in the sport — if not one of the best defenders at any position. Over the past three seasons, he’s posted a .251/.331/.374 batting line with 17 home runs, 32 doubles and a triple in 780 plate appearances. That’s about nine percent worse than the league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+, though it’s right in line with the leaguewide average for catchers, specifically.

It might be tempting to assume that Stallings’ on-base percentage has benefited from hitting eighth in front of Pirates pitchers, but that’s not necessarily the case. Stallings has spent a good chunk of time in the eight spot, but he’s spent more time hitting fifth, sixth and seventh in the Pittsburgh lineup and actually has better walk rates out of those slots than he does in the eight hole.

Where Stallings truly shines, however, is with the glove. He’s ranked as one of the game’s best defenders for the past few seasons and finally got his well-deserved credit in 2021 when he took home his first NL Gold Glove Award. Stallings posted a massive 21 Defensive Runs Saved mark in 2021 and has racked up an outstanding 42 DRS dating back to Opening Day 2019.

Stallings has consistently delivered plus framing marks according to each of Statcast, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, and he draws perennially strong marks for his pitch-blocking skills at Baseball Prospectus as well. In terms of controlling the running game, Stallings had something of a down season in 2021 (21% caught-stealing), though the pitching staff surely shared some of the blame in that regard; Stallings had a huge 36.2% caught-stealing rate from 2019-20.

The other element of Stallings’ appeal is his affordable salary and remaining club control. Because he doesn’t pile up the counting stats that portend significant arbitration salaries, he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a highly reasonable $2.6MM in 2022. He’s controlled another two seasons beyond that, so any club to acquire Stallings would be bolstering its catching corps through the 2024 season.

Pittsburgh doesn’t have an immediate heir-apparent to take the reins if Stallings is dealt. Between that fact and the combination of his salary, club control and excellent defense, Stallings may have higher trade value than some would expect when glancing solely at his offensive numbers. That said, the lack of an immediate successor in Pittsburgh shouldn’t necessarily dissuade the Bucs from jumping if a strong offer is presented. The Pirates aren’t contending in 2022 anyhow, and the free-agent market has a number of veteran options who could be plugged in as a stopgap while the team waits on 2021 No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis to develop in the minors.

Marlins In Market For Outfielders Even After Garcia Deal

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The Marlins aren’t 24 hours removed from agreeing to a four-year, $53MM contract with free-agent outfielder Avisail Garcia, but MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports they’re still seeking offensive upgrades (all Twitter links). Outfielders appear the priority, with Heyman listing Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Chris Taylor and Eddie Rosario among the possible targets.

Miami already guaranteed $53MM to Garcia over the next four seasons — a hefty splash by their typically modest standards. It’d be a surprise to see them follow that up by signing any of Castellanos, Schwarber or Taylor, as all three are expected to top that four-year deal landed by Garcia. Castellanos is reported to be seeking a contract of as many as seven or eight years in length, though it seems likely he’ll ultimately settle in a bit shy of that mark. Even still, there’s a good chance he’ll double the Garcia total.

Schwarber and Taylor, meanwhile, could both land larger four- or even five-year deals than Garcia signed. Schwarber parlayed a huge season between Washington and Boston into a strong free-agent stock, while Taylor has long been a steady super-utility piece for the Dodgers, He’d give Miami an option in center field for at least the first season or two of the deal — something they very much crave — and he’d give them some cover in the infield as well. That could be particularly appealing to Miami after the Marlins saw each of Miguel Rojas, Jazz Chisholm and Brian Anderson miss significant time in 2021.

Rosario, 30, seems like a more viable fit in Miami than the other names on the list — at least from a price perspective. The longtime Twins outfielder was non-tendered by Minnesota last winter, signed a one-year deal in Cleveland and found himself headed to the Braves in what amounted to a deadline salary dump. Rosario took off in Atlanta, however, returning from the injured list to slash .271/.330/.573 in his final 106 plate appearances. His heater continued into the postseason, where he won NLCS MVP honors. Even with a quiet World Series, Rosario still posted a massive .383/.456/.617 slash in 68 playoff plate appearances.

Streaky play of that nature has been the norm throughout Rosario’s career. In general, he’s a free-swinging left fielder with plenty of power but a low walk rates and dwindling defensive ratings. Dating back to the 2017 season, Rosario is a .278/.315/.484 hitter, but those numbers have tailed off in recent years. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating still peg Rosario as a decent left fielder, but not the standout defender he was in 2018. Statcast’s Outs Above Average, however, graded Rosario harshly and ranked him worst among all MLB outfielders (-18).

Both Castellanos and Taylor rejected qualifying offers, meaning they’d cost the Marlins their third-highest pick in next year’s draft. Schwarber and Rosario were ineligible to receive qualifying offers by virtue of being traded midseason (though only Schwarber would’ve commanded one).

Sixto Sanchez “100 Percent,” Ready To Pitch In 2022

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In an interview posted to the team’s Youtube channel, promising Marlins righty Sixto Sanchez told Marlins broadcaster Kyle Sielaff that he feels “100 percent” roughly four months after undergoing surgery to repair a capsular tear in his right shoulder, which ended his 2021 season before he’d thrown a pitch. This will come as welcome news to Marlins fans, who saw in 2020 the electric stuff that made Sanchez a consensus top prospect ahead of his debut (and, despite the surgery, the current No. 41 per MLB Pipeline).

The centerpiece of the deal that sent J.T. Realmuto to Philadelphia ahead of the 2019 season, Sanchez turned in an excellent (if abbreviated) debut in 2020, posting a 3.46 ERA (3.50 FIP) in 39 innings across seven starts. He also started twice in the playoffs, holding the Cubs scoreless over 5 innings in the Wild Card round before getting knocked around by the Braves in the NLDS. He had been expected to slot in behind two other young (if more established) starters — Sandy Alcantara (whom the Marlins signed to a 5-year, $56MM extension yesterday) and Pablo Lopez — in 2021 before late-spring shoulder discomfort inaugurated a process of failed rehabilitation that ended in surgery. It’s unclear whether or not Sanchez has actually resumed throwing, but the Marlins have made it clear that they expect Sanchez to be ready for spring training.

Though his absence was clearly a disappointment to player and team alike, a return to form in 2022 could portend great things for the Marlins, who would suddenly have something of an embarrassment of riches in rotation. Beyond Alcantara (3.19 ERA in 205 2/3 innings), Lopez (3.07 ERA in 102 2/3 innings), and Sanchez, the Marlins feature 2021 All-Star and NL Rookie of the Year runner-up Trevor Rogers (2.64 ERA in 133 innings), former Rule 5 selection Elieser Hernandez (4.18 ERA in 51 2/3 innings), and flamethrower Jesus Luzardo, who struggled to a 6.61 ERA across 95 1/3 innings between Oakland and Miami (the A’s traded him for Starling Marte at the deadline) but displayed flashes of brilliance.

The Marlins disappointed in 2021, following a surprise playoff run in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season by finishing 21.5 games out of first, but their abundance of high-end young pitching makes them a threat to turn things around quickly. The 2021 club never really settled on a lineup — only five players had 300 or more plate appearances — and the team ranked 27th in the majors with a wRC+ of 84. GM Kim Ng began to address this shortcoming yesterday, agreeing to terms with outfielder Avisail Garcia on a four-year, $53MM deal — the largest free agent contract handed out by the club in the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter ownership era.

Still, while the Marlins feature a solid infield quartet (Jesus Aguilar, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miguel Rojas, and Brian Anderson), the outfield mix remains unsettled. None of Lewis Brinson, Jesus Sanchez, Bryan De La Cruz, or Monte Harrison has established himself as a productive big-league bat, and it isn’t clear who would start in two outfield spots were the season to start today. Whether or not Ng has more money to spend remains to be seen, but a further upgrade either in the outfield or at catcher could go quite a long way toward making the Marlins a surprise contender in 2022.

Marlins Agree To Extension With Sandy Alcantara

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TODAY: The two sides have reached an agreement on a five-year, $56MM extension, according to Craig Mish (via Twitter).  The contract will become official when Alcantara passes a physical.  Mish and Jordan McPherson note that the Marlins also have a $21MM club option for a sixth year, with a $2MM buyout.  Alcantara receives a $1.5MM signing bonus as part of the deal.

NOVEMBER 22: The Marlins and right-hander Sandy Alcantara are closing in on a five-year contract extension that would guarantee the CAA Sports client more than $55MM, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald (Twitter link).

Sandy Alcantara | Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Alcantara, 26, has been in extension talks for months — dating back to July when reports of negotiations first surfaced. While the Marlins’ first overtures were said to be low enough that Alcantara’s camp considered them a nonstarter, a $55MM+ guarantee would be a record extension for a pitcher with between three and four years of Major League service time, topping the previous highwater mark set by Carlos Martinez in Feb. 2017 (five years, $51MM).

Acquired from the Cardinals alongside Zac Gallen in the 2017 trade that sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis, Alcantara has steadily improved over the course of his four seasons in Miami. He’s always been a hard-throwing sinker specialist, but his strikeout and walk rates early in his career were pedestrian, to say the least. Alcantara racked up 197 innings with the Fish in 2019, but he looked more like a potential innings-eater than a star at that point. Fast forward to 2021, however, and Alcantara looks more like a building block than that stable No. 4 starter he was in ’19.

This past season, Alcantara finished fourth in MLB with 205 2/3 innings thrown, averaged 98.1 mph on his heater and posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (24.0%), walk rate (6.0%) and ground-ball rate (55.3%). All three are vastly better than the league average, so it’s little surprise that Alcantara’s 3.19 ERA was largely supported by fielding-independent marks. This year’s 13.3% swinging-strike rate was easily a career-high, and Alcantara’s gaudy 36.7% opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone ranked third among qualified starters. Alcantara also thrives when it comes to inducing weak contact and ranks above the league average in Statcast’s “expected” ERA, batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA.

Alcantara had been set for his first trip through the arbitration process this winter and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.5MM. He’d have been arb-eligible twice more, securing a pair of additional raises in the process. The proposed deal would buy out two arbitration seasons and, depending on how bullishly one cares to project Alcantara’s would-be raises in years two and three of arbitration, places a value of around $14-15MM per season on those two free-agent campaigns. That, of course, still represents a bargain for Alcantara if he can replicate his 2021 breakout, but that type of tradeoff is commonplace for players signing extensions well before they’d otherwise reach the open market.

The $11MM annual value — a figure which, as with many extensions, is skewed by the arbitration seasons included in the deal — is significant for a typically low-payroll Marlins club. However, Miami doesn’t have a single guaranteed contract on the books after the 2023 season, and second-year GM Kim Ng has been vocal in her desire to spend more money this offseason. Much of that is expected to come via free agency, but locking up one of their current stars to keep him in the fold beyond his previously allotted team control certainly speaks to that increased financial wherewithal as well.

Miami has reportedly considered trading from its impressive collection of young starting pitchers as the organization eyes long-term options both in the outfield and behind the plate. That said, Alcantara would always have been one of the toughest Marlins starters to obtain — if not the toughest — and a five-year extension would further diminish the already slim chances of him being dealt. The Fish could still dangle any combination of Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez and Jesus Luzardo, while near-MLB prospects like Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera (among many others) would surely carry very strong trade value. Injured youngsters like Sixto Sanchez (shoulder capsule surgery) and Jake Eder (Tommy John surgery) are appealing in their own right — health concerns notwithstanding.

With such a bounty of young arms, the Marlins obviously could have weathered the hit of trading Alcantara, but today’s extension instead likely portends a long-term rotation headed by Alcantara and 2021 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up Trevor Rogers. Who’ll fill the spots behind that dynamic pairing is dependent on how the offseason trade market unfolds, but the Fish are well-positioned to continue making strides thanks largely to that near-unparalleled collection of pitching talent.

Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

Marlins To Sign Avisail Garcia

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The Marlins have agreed to a four-year contract with free agent Avisail Garcia, SportsGrid’s Craig Mish reports (via Twitter).  Garcia will earn $53MM, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.  Garcia is represented by Mato Sports Management.

Mish notes that this is the largest contract the Marlins have handed out under owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter, who purchased the team more than four years ago.  The Marlins are “far from done,” tweets Mish.  Garcia joins Jesus Sanchez in the Marlins’ outfield, after the club reportedly made a strong push to bring Starling Marte back before he signed with the Mets.  The Marlins continue to sit on perhaps the game’s best starting pitching surplus, suggesting GM Kim Ng may solve some of the team’s other needs on the trade market.

MLBTR had predicted a three-year, $36MM contract for Garcia, who managed to snag an extra year and a better average annual value.  Garcia’s contract is exactly double that of Mark Canha, who signed with the Mets two days ago at the same $13.25MM AAV.  Garcia, 31 in June, posted a fine 115 wRC+ in 135 games for the Brewers this year.  Garcia’s two-year, $20MM contract with the Brewers included a provision that converted a $12MM club option into a mutual one once he reached a certain plate appearance threshold in September.  That allowed Garcia to become a free agent.  Likely fearing acceptance, the budget-conscious Brewers elected not to make the one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer.

Garcia has had an up-and-down career since signing with the Tigers for $200K as a 16-year-old out of Venezuela back in 2007.  The toolsy outfielder reached the Majors as a 21-year-old in 2012 and was traded to the White Sox the following year as part of a three-team deal that sent Jake Peavy to the Red Sox and Jose Iglesias to Detroit.  Garcia fell short of expectations in Chicago until a BABIP-driven 138 wRC+ in 2017.  After a down 2018 season that culminated in knee surgery, the White Sox chose not to tender Garcia a contract with a projected $8MM arbitration salary looming.

The Rays swooped in with a one-year, $3.5MM free agent contract for Garcia, who rode a 113 wRC+ in 2019 to the aforementioned two-year contract with Milwaukee.  It’s fair to question why, two years later, Garcia is coming off a similar season and managed to secure $33MM more than last time.  Interestingly, Marte was reportedly “seeking a three- or four-year deal in the $50 million range” back in July when the Marlins attempted to extend him, according to Jordan McPherson and Craig Mish in the Miami Herald.  The Marlins didn’t get there, trading Marte for Jesus Luzardo before attempting to sign him back last week.  It’s been an odd sequence of events for the Marlins, who ended up with Garcia for a similar price to what Marte might have cost.

The answer to Garcia’s appeal might lie in Statcast, where his top of the charts numbers have always hinted at something more.  This year, he ranked in the 73rd percentile for average exit velocity, 98th for maximum exit velocity, 78th for hard hit percentage, and 80th for barrel rate.  Garcia simply hits the ball very hard, even if this year’s 29 home runs represented a career best.  Garcia pairs his hard-hitting with 88th percentile sprint speed, so his is a rare blend of athleticism.  Defensively, Garcia has been a bit below average in Outs Above Average over the past few years.

We’ve seen a flurry of hot stove activity today with three days remaining until the collective bargaining agreement expires, with December 1st serving as a transaction deadline of sorts.  Today alone, we’ve seen free agent contracts for Marcus Semien, Corey Kluber, and Garcia, as well as an extension for Byron Buxton.  After the CBA expires, ownership is widely expected to lock out the players and freeze free agency, speculatively until the eve of spring training in February.  This has created an unprecedented urgency from teams in free agency, resulting in many November contracts that have exceeded expectations.

Marlins Made “Strong” Push For Starling Marte

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The Marlins were in on Starling Marte right up until the centerfielder signed the four-year, $78MM deal to join the Mets, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The Marlins made a “strong” offer, but not one that matched the Mets’ financial commitment, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald (via Twitter). The Marlins weren’t the only team to be outbid by the Mets, who flexed their financial might to ink not only Marte, but Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter).

Centerfield remains one of the Marlins’ biggest needs, though they may need to get creative now that Marte is off the board. Utility gem Chris Taylor is the only inspiring option remaining on the free agent board with significant experience manning center. The rest of the field consists of veteran names more likely to be seen as backups. This group includes Brett Gardner, Joc Pederson, Billy Hamilton, Ender Inciarte, Odubel Herrera, Jake Marisnick, Brian Goodwin, and a few others.

If the season began today, the Marlins would have Bryan De La Cruz, Lewis Brinson, and Monte Harrison as their primary options. De La Cruz, 24, would be Plan A after putting together a strong showing in the second half of 2021. The right-handed hitter slashed .296/.356/.427 in 219 plate appearances after being acquired from the Astros along with Austin Pruitt in exchange for reliever Yimi Garcia.

With De La Cruz proving at least capable of manning the middle, the Marlins are also exploring the addition of corner bats. Nick Castellanos is a name they like, despite his potentially chunky price tag, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter). Castellanos’ big bat would certainly provide a much-needed boost to Miami’s lineup, though it would be a touch surprising to see the slugger end up in Miami, given the presumed price point for his services.

Latest On Starling Marte’s Market

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We’ve seen an unusual number of high-profile free agents come off the board in the first few weeks of November, though they’ve all been pitchers to this point. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman suggests, however, that the market for Starling Marte is strong enough that he could also sign this month, prior to the Dec. 1 expiration of the collective bargaining agreement.

That the 33-year-old Marte would command robust interest is only logical, given his longstanding track record and a brilliant 2021 campaign. While he’s a older than your typical free agent thanks to the club-friendly contract he inked early in his career, Marte has shown no signs of slowing down. To the contrary, his 2021 season was arguably his best yet. In 526 plate appearances between the Marlins and A’s, Marte turned in a .308/.381/.456 with a dozen home runs, 27 doubles and three triples — all while going 47-for-52 in stolen base attempts. He’s also perhaps the lone everyday center field option on the market.

Even if conventional wisdom suggests that the fleet-footed Marte will eventually slow down and move to a corner in a few years’ time, he still grades out as a plus runner and a respectable defensive option in center for the time being. Both Outs Above Average (2) and Ultimate Zone Rating (1.0) graded Marte as slightly above average, whereas Defensive Runs Saved was a bit below-average at minus-4. Make what you will of defensive metrics, which can of course be spotty on a year-to-year basis, but Marte has generally been passable in center and plus in left field. He also still ranks in the 83rd percentile of MLB players in terms of average sprint speed (28.4 ft/sec).

Given the scarcity of Marte’s skill set, the number of teams looking for help in the outfield (center field, in particular) and the lack of qualifying offer attached to him (he was ineligible by virtue of being traded), it’s no wonder that his market has quickly picked up steam. Prior reports have linked the Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Yankees and Giants to Marte, and Heyman tweeted this week that the Rangers — whom most expect to be quite aggressive in free agency — have also been weighing a run at Marte. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds this morning that the Astros, fresh off re-signing Justin Verlander, are being aggressive in their own efforts to sign Marte.

As we noted when ranking Marte 13th on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 free agent rankings, the list of teams with interest in bringing Marte aboard will be quite long. He’s been widely expected to command at least a three-year deal in free agency — the Marlins offered a lowball, three-year deal in the $30-39MM range prior to trading him — and with a number of recent free agents commanding premium salaries through age-36, we pegged him for a four-year deal at a total of $80MM.

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