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Rays To Sign Brooks Raley

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The Rays have agreed to a deal with free-agent lefty Brooks Raley, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal will be finalized once Raley, a client of Vanguard Sports, passes a physical. It’s a two-year, $10MM deal with a club option, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

Brooks Raley | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Raley, 33, was one of the top lefty relievers on the market this winter. Since 2020, he’s posted a 31.8 K% and 7.6 BB% in 69 innings for the Reds and Astros. That strikeout rate ranks 22nd among all relievers during that time among those with at least 60 innings pitched.

As you’d expect, Raley has been devastating against lefty batters, with a 40.5 K% against them in that time.  Though Raley isn’t a hard-thrower, he boasts excellent fastball and curveball spin rates.  He also had the second-lowest average exit velocity in all of baseball this year among those with at least 100 batters faced, as well as the game’s best hard-hit percentage. He’s an extremely tough at-bat for lefty batters.

Excellent as Raley has been against same-handed opponents, he’s struggled to tame righties, allowing six home runs against the 120 hitters he faced from that side this year. That’s a large part of his 4.83 ERA since 2020, and something the Rays will have to navigate carefully with the three-batter minimum expected to stay in effect. Still, given Raley’s massive strikeout rates and terrific batted-ball profile, it’s not a surprise that a particularly analytically inclined club was more than willing to look beyond his pedestrian ERA — even on a two-year contract arrangement.

Raley joins what should be a strong Tampa Bay bullpen, slotting in alongside Andrew Kittredge, Pete Fairbanks, J.P. Feyereisen and Matt Wisler, among others. It’s not a collection of household names by any means, but the Rays coaxed a 3.24 ERA out of their relievers despite the perennial churn on bullpen arms in St. Petersburg. They’ll look for ways to improve his numbers against righties and also advantageous opportunities to utilize his mastery against lefties, and their prior success in achieving those goals on mid-level additions of this nature has earned them the benefit of the doubt in their ability to succeed again.

For Raley, the $10MM guarantee is an especially satisfying achievement when considering the path he took to get here. A sixth-round pick by the Cubs back in 2009, Raley made his MLB debut with Chicago in 2012 and was rocked for a 7.04 ERA in 38 1/3 frames over the next two seasons. That led to a DFA and a pair of waiver claims from the Twins and the Angels, but Raley never pitched in the Majors for either team. The Halos released him in 2014, allowing him to sign a deal with the Lotte Giants in the Korea Baseball Organization.

Raley spent the next half decade as a starter in South Korea, generally pitching to an ERA in the upper-3.00s or low-4.00s. He accumulated a hefty 910 2/3 innings in the KBO, though the 4.13 ERA he posted with South Korea’s Giants didn’t exactly stand out. Raley returned to the U.S. on a one-year deal (plus a club option) with the Reds in 2020 but barely got a look in Cincinnati before being designated for assignment. The Astros picked him up in a trade that sent minor league reliever Fredy Medina to Cincinnati, and Raley’s career took off from there.

Given the frantic pace of transactions and the nine-figure contracts being slung left and right over the past week, it’s easy to move past a deal in this range without giving it much of a second thought. Given Raley’s career arc, it’s worth taking a moment to appreciate the perseverance and the payoff.

Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

Rays To Sign Corey Kluber

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3:16PM: MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) has the breakdown of Kluber’s incentives.  The righty will earn $500K bonuses for hitting the 10-start and 15-start thresholds, $1MM if he makes 20 starts, and $1.5MM for making 25 starts and 30 starts.  While the Rays are known for using openers and bulk pitchers, this contract structure would seem to imply that Kluber will be normally deployed as a starting pitcher.

10:44AM: The Rays have signed Corey Kluber to a one-year deal, pending a physical. It’s an $8MM contract, plus incentives, which could take the value of the deal as high as $13MM. MLBTR had predicted a one-year, $12MM contract for Kluber, which is right in line with his earnings window, based on those incentives. Kluber is represented by Jet Sports Management.

This is yet another domino to fall in what has been an incredibly fast-moving starting pitcher market this year, as Eduardo Rodriguez, Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Verlander, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha have all signed in the past two weeks.

This is the second consecutive one-year deal for Kluber, after being signed by the Yankees in January. At the time, Kluber had been limited to less than 40 total innings over the previous two seasons due to various injuries. Regardless, he was still able to earn himself a guarantee of $11MM from the Yanks after demonstrating his health in a showcase. The righty was again held back by injuries in 2021, although his 80 innings pitched still were the most he’s tallied since 2018. Although he couldn’t live up to his previous Cy Young-winning form, he did manage an ERA of 3.83 with a strikeout rate of 24%.

Prior to his recent injury woes, Kluber was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. From 2014 to 2018, he had five straight campaigns of at least 200 innings and never had an ERA above 3.50. In total, he threw 1091 1/3 innings during that time frame, second only to Max Scherzer across the league. His 1,228 strikeouts put him third, behind only Scherzer and Chris Sale. His 30.3 fWAR in that span trailed only Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw. He won the AL Cy Young in 2014 and 2017 and made the All-Star team in three straight seasons, beginning in 2016.

For the Rays, this marks another in short-term deal given to a veteran starter, in what has become something of a pattern for the low-spending organization, who signed Rich Hill, Michael Wacha and Chris Archer to one-year deals last winter. Kluber has a much higher ceiling than any of those three, based on his previous track record, but also comes with a high degree of uncertainty based on his recent injuries. The rotation is currently composed of young, highly-touted but inexperienced hurlers, such as Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Yarbrough, Luis Patino, Shane Baz and Josh Fleming. Yarbrough is the only one of that group older than 27 years old or with more than two years’ service time. Tyler Glasnow is likely out for the entirety of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. Yonny Chirinos, also recovering from Tommy John, isn’t expected back until April or May. Brendan McKay just recently underwent thoracic outlet surgery but could potentially be ready by spring training. Kluber, if healthy, adds some steady veteran presence and experience into this mix.

From a financial perspective, the $8MM owed to Kluber pushes the club’s 2022 payroll close to $84MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. This has the potential to be record-setting, as the Rays have never had an opening day payroll higher than $77MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, it’s also possible that number comes down after the team subtracts from their substantial arbitration class, either by non-tenders or trades. They already made one such move when they recently traded Jordan Luplow and his projected $1.5MM arbitration salary to the Diamondbacks.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the Rays had signed Kluber. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first added the $8MM base plus incentives framework. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first relayed that the incentives could push the deal as high as $13MM.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rays Sign Wander Franco To 11-Year Extension

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Seventy games into his Major League career, Rays shortstop Wander Franco has agreed to an 11-year, $182MM contract extension.  The contract also comes with a $25MM club option for the 2033 season (with a $2MM buyout) and a series of $3MM escalators based on MVP voting, so the deal’s maximum value sits at $223MM over 12 years.  Franco is represented by agent Manny Paula.

Wander Franco | Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Franco’s contract is both a franchise record for the Rays, topping Evan Longoria’s previous $100MM guarantee, and also a record for any player with less than one year of Major League service time. Ronald Acuna Jr.’s eight-year, $100MM contract had been the largest ever signed by a player with less than a year of service, but Franco will nearly double that sum with today’s precedent-shattering agreement.

In terms of financial breakdown, Franco will receive a $5MM bonus right off the bat. The shortstop will earn $1MM in 2022, $2MM in both 2023 and 2024, $8MM in 2025, $15MM in 2016, $22MM in 2027, and then $25MM in each of the 2028-32 seasons.

Franco would receive an extra $3MM in the event of a trade, but there isn’t any no-trade protection involved in the extension. There also aren’t any provisions related to the Rays’ plan to split time between Tampa and Montreal once the team’s lease at Tropicana Field is up after the 2027 season.

Franco, who won’t turn 21 until March, ranked as the sport’s No. 1 overall prospect in each of the past three offseasons and largely justified that hype when he debuted just months after his 20th birthday. The switch-hitter slashed .288/.347/.463 with seven home runs, 18 doubles, five triples and a pair of stolen bases through 308 plate appearances.

From July 25 to Sept. 29, Franco embarked on one of the more remarkable stretches in recent memory, reaching base in a staggering 43 consecutive games in spite of his youth. During that time, he posted a combined .329/.398/.545 batting line with more walks (9.1%) than strikeouts (8.1%). Franco only appeared in 70 games this season but was impressive enough to finish third in AL Rookie of the Year voting.

Defensively, Franco received split marks for his work at shortstop, putting up six Defensive Runs Saved, average marks per Ultimate Zone Rating and a minus-3 mark in Statcast’s Outs Above Average. However, scouting reports on him have pegged him as at least an average shortstop — if not better — in addition to touting his elite hit tool, plus power and plus speed. That generally aligns with the .331/.399./535 slash he posted in his meteoric rise through 215 minor league games. Prior to Franco’s promotion, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote that he’d been “the best player his age on the planet since he was 14 years old” and touted him as a perennial MVP candidate. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, meanwhile, called him “plus at basically everything on a baseball field.” Take your pick of Franco scouting reports from the 2020-21 offseason and they’ll all generally be filled similar superlatives.

Because the Rays waited until late June to promote Franco, he was a veritable lock to fall shy of Super Two status under the current arbitration system (which could potentially change, depending on how collective bargaining talks play out). Franco wouldn’t have been arbitration-eligible until after the 2024 season and would’ve had to wait until the 2027-28 offseason to reach free agency. The 11-year length of the contract buys out all three of Franco’s pre-arbitration seasons — during which he’d likely have made under $1MM apiece — and all three arbitration years. He’s also surrendering control of six would-be free-agent seasons (though only five are fully guaranteed).

Some fans will recoil at the notion of guaranteeing $182MM to a player with just 70 big league games under his belt, but those 70 games largely confirmed what the industry has expected from Franco since he signed for a bonus of nearly $4MM as a 16-year-old: he looks the part of a budding superstar. And, a westward look toward San Diego shows what could happen by waiting to allow the player to further establish himself. Fernando Tatis Jr. didn’t sign an extension until he had accrued two years of Major League service, and his price tag ballooned to 14 years and $340MM. Franco’s price tag upon waiting would likely have extended even beyond that point and may well have become too sizable for the Rays’ typically frugal ownership.

It’s tempting to ponder just how much Franco might be “leaving on the table,” so to speak; free agent Carlos Correa has already pocketed $27MM in career salaries and is reportedly seeking a contract worth more than $300MM at the same age Franco would’ve been upon reaching free agency. Extension rumblings surrounding Juan Soto have elicited speculation of $400MM or even $500MM in total guaranteed money; Soto is 23 and has three-plus years of MLB service.

Franco would have found himself on a similar trajectory had he gone the year-to-year route, and one could certainly argue that betting on himself in hopes of setting an even more dramatic record was the more prudent path forward. That said, it’s difficult to fault anyone for accepting this type of guarantee — particularly at such a young age. Generations of Franco’s family will be financially secure because of it, and he can still take heart in knowing that he’s nearly doubled the previous precedent, thus further advancing the market for future players. Beyond that, because of his youth, Franco can still reach free agency as a 32-year-old, which is young enough to command a second substantial contract.

The possibility of “leaving money on the table” also assumes good health and continued production from Franco moving forward. Taking the extension now mitigates much of the risk associated with a career-altering injury or injuries — a danger that exists for any player. It also safeguards against Franco “merely” becoming a solid regular rather than a bona fide superstar (or, less likely, declining into a sub-par player). Promising as his beginnings were, he’d hardly be the first player to impress as a rookie before taking a few years to reach his ceiling or even stalling out entirely.

Ongoing labor talks also have to be considered. While the next collective bargaining agreement could have improved Franco’s earning power, it’s also feasible that a new CBA might have hurt him to an extent; ownership has already proposed an age-based free-agent threshold of 29.5 years, for instance, and although that particular number was a nonstarter for the players association (due to just this type of situation), the league could explore various permutations of such mechanisms. Regardless of how labor talks between MLB and the MLBPA play out, Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander and Franco can both rest easy knowing that perhaps the most critical negotiation either will ever personally take part in has been resolved.

Any and all instances of the Rays spending money bring about the typical comments wondering how long until the player on the receiving end of the deal is traded. Such barbs are admittedly somewhat justified due to the Rays’ history of trading players — e.g. Longoria, Blake Snell, Chris Archer — in the latter stages of their extensions. But, even if that’s Franco’s ultimate fate, it’s unlikely to happen anytime soon. Extensions of this nature tend to mirror what the player would have earned absent the long-term contract; in other words, Franco may receive an up-front signing bonus, but his yearly salaries through the first six years figure are considerably lighter than they will be in the portion of his contract covering what would have been free-agent years.

In the short term, then, the Franco extension will have only minimal impact on club payroll. Tampa Bay was projected by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez to field a payroll of around $76MM in 2021, and the Franco contract probably won’t push that mark up to even $80MM. That number still figures to drop a bit in the near future as the Rays contemplate potential trades and non-tenders related to an abnormally large arbitration class, but any trades or non-tenders of arb-eligible players in the coming days will be unrelated to Franco’s long-term pact.

At the end of the day, any contract of this magnitude involves some give and take for both sides. Any number of things could’ve gone wrong for Franco in the years to come, and the looming possibility of those pitfalls underscores the fact that the typically small-payroll Rays are taking on what is, by their standards, an unprecedented risk.

While many will be quick to declare “winners” and “losers” in Hot Stove transactions — be they trades, free-agent signings or contract extensions — there are also instances where a deal simply appears sensible for all sides. Franco receives a generational amount of money and retains the ability to reach free agency in his early 30s. The Rays secure control of a franchise cornerstone whom they hope and believe can be an all-time great. The players union surely approves of the precedent for players with under a year of service being moved forward so substantially.

Ultimately, Franco’s new contract contains positives for all parties involved — perhaps with the exception of Tampa Bay’s division rivals in the AL East who now have to wonder how to combat the emerging superstar into the 2030s.

Yancen Pujols of El Caribe reported last week that the Rays had offered a record-setting extension worth between $150-200MM. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported on Nov. 23 that an agreement was close, and he also had the year-to-year salary breakdown. Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link) and Hector Gomez of Z101 Sports (Twitter link) reported general parameters, and ESPN’s Jeff Passan eventually reported the specific terms of the contract (Twitter thread).

Diamondbacks Acquire Jordan Luplow From Rays

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The Rays have traded outfielder/first baseman Jordan Luplow to the D-Backs for infield prospect Ronny Simon, the teams announced. Arizona designated right-hander Brett de Geus for assignment to open space on the 40-man roster. Tampa Bay’s 40-man roster now sits at 39.

Luplow is a five-year big league veteran, although he’s spent the bulk of his time in a platoon capacity. The right-handed hitter has never tallied more than 261 plate appearances in any given campaign, as he’s instead been leveraged heavily against lefty pitching. That’s a role in which he’s had great success, as Luplow has a massive .245/.360/.539 showing against southpaws. While that batting average isn’t eye-catching, Luplow’s combination of a huge 14.3% walk rate and 23 home runs in 378 plate appearances (essentially a little less than two-thirds of a full season’s workload) when holding the platoon advantage has made him an impact player in those situations.

Yet Luplow’s struggles against same-handed hurlers have kept him from being an everyday regular. He’s a career .205/.291/.369 hitter in 358 trips to the dish against righties. The 28-year-old actually had reverse splits in fairly limited playing time this past season, but it’s likely the D-Backs put more stock in his career-long track record of mashing against southpaws and will continue to use in a platoon capacity next season.

Luplow has between three and four years of major league service, so he remains controllable through 2024 via arbitration (barring changes to the service time structure in the next collective bargaining agreement). MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to receive a salary in the $1.5MM range next year. That’s certainly not an onerous sum, but it might be more than the cost-conscious Rays would have been willing to spend since they’re already fairly deep in outfield options.

The D-Backs’ outfield is far less settled, particularly if the club tries to trade David Peralta this winter. Young options like Pavin Smith, Stuart Fairchild, Jake McCarthy and Daulton Varsho could all get some run in 2022, but Fairchild’s the only right-handed hitter of that bunch. Adding Luplow gives the D-Backs an affordable, proven righty bat to help balance out the group.

In exchange, the D-Backs will send back a switch-hitting infield prospect. Simon spent most of the 2021 campaign with Low-A Visalia, where he hit .249/.343/.475 with fifteen homers and twelve steals across 349 plate appearances as a 21-year-old. Simon, who was acquired from the Cubs last November as the player to be named later in the teams’ Andrew Chafin deal, spent the bulk of his time in the middle infield, in addition to a handful of starts at third base. He’ll need to be added to the 40-man roster next offseason or be made available in the 2022 Rule 5 draft.

de Geus split the 2021 campaign between the Rangers and D-Backs. Selected out of the Dodgers’ organization in last year’s Rule 5, the 24-year-old worked 47 innings across 50 outings. He posted just a 7.56 ERA with worse than average strikeout and walk rates (17.2% and 10.5%, respectively). de Geus’ 7% swinging strike rate was the second-lowest mark among the 255 relievers with 20+ innings pitched, but he did rack up ground-balls at a strong 52.1% clip on the strength of his low-mid 90s sinker. Arizona will have a week to trade de Geus or try to pass him through waivers.

Brian O’Grady Signs With NPB’s Seibu Lions

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Former Padres, Rays and Reds first baseman/outfielder Brian O’Grady has signed with the Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball, per announcements from both the Lions and from O’Grady himself (Twitter link).

O’Grady, 29, became a free agent after being outrighted off San Diego’s roster at season’s end. The 2014 eighth-round pick (Reds) saw a career-high 61 plate appearances with the Friars in 2021, frequently operating as a pinch-hitter but also drawing a handful of starts in right field. O’Grady hit .157/.267/.333 with a pair of homers, three doubles and eight walks (13.1%).

The limited role wasn’t entirely new for O’Grady, who also saw action with the Reds in 2019 and Rays in 2020 without ever receiving an opportunity at consistent playing time. He’s a career .184/.283/.388 hitter in 114 Major League plate appearances — but those plate appearances have come over the course of 62 games.

O’Grady figures to be afforded far more opportunities in Japan, and given his career .284/.362/.551 batting line in 978 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, there’s good reason to believe he’ll find success overseas. Regardless of how he performs, he’ll quite likely be paid a guaranteed salary that handily eclipses what he’d have made in another season split between Triple-A and the big leagues. A strong season in Japan could either position O’Grady for a raise on a new contract in NPB or the KBO, and success in a foreign professional league could also prime him to return to MLB on a guaranteed contract at some point down the line.

Brendan McKay Undergoes Thoracic Outlet Surgery

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Rays two-way player Brendan McKay underwent thoracic outlet syndrome decompression surgery yesterday, the team informed reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). He’s expected to begin throwing in early February, and the team remains hopeful he can be ready for mound work by the start of Spring Training. The club added that the focus of his rehab process will be on pitching.

If all goes according to plan, it doesn’t seem this procedure will have an impact on McKay’s health for the start of the 2022 campaign. That said, it’s another unfortunate injury development in a long line of recent health issues. The southpaw missed the shortened 2020 season on account of a shoulder problem that eventually required surgery. That kept him out of action until late June of this year. Just a few outings into a minor league rehab stint, he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm that again proved to be season-ending.

The injuries have limited the former #4 overall draft pick to just 49 MLB innings, all of which came back in 2019. McKay’s situation with the club could be complicated by his roster status, as he’s currently slated to be out of minor league options. In that instance, the team would need to either carry him on the active roster (or major league injured list) all season or risk losing him on waivers. Topkin reported earlier this month that the Rays expect they’ll be granted a fourth option year because of McKay’s repeated injury issues, though. That would allow the team to shuttle him between Tampa and Triple-A Durham through the end of next season.

Wade Davis Announces Retirement

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Three-time All-Star and 2015 World Series champion Wade Davis announced his retirement after a 13-year MLB career Wednesday (via a tweet from the Royals).

Wade Davis

Davis, 36, began his pro career as a third-round pick by the Devil Rays back in 2004. He ranked not only among Tampa Bay’s top prospects but among the best farmhands in all of baseball from 2007-10, while developing as a rotation hopeful in a perennially strong Tampa Bay system.

After a strong run through the minors, Davis debuted as a 23-year-old in 2009, going on to enjoy some success as a member of the Rays’ rotation for the next couple of seasons. From 2009-11, Davis started 64 games and pitched to a 4.22 ERA out of the Tampa rotation — albeit with lackluster strikeout and walk rates, as well as less-flattering marks from fielding-independent pitching metrics.

A move to the bullpen in 2012 brought about a sub-3.00 ERA and nearly doubled Davis’ strikeout rate, but the Royals still had designs on moving him back into the rotation when acquiring Davis and teammate James Shields in what remains one of the more surprising and impactful blockbuster trades in recent memory. Shields, controlled two years at the time, and Davis (controlled for three) went to the Royals in exchange for then-prospects Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard. It was a massive deal that had long-term implications for both clubs — a trade that set the stage for Kansas City’s eventual back-to-back World Series appearances.

Davis didn’t fare too well in his return to starting pitching, as his first season with Kansas City culminated in a 5.32 ERA in 135 2/3 innings. The Royals put Davis back in the ’pen following those struggles, and Davis joined Greg Holland, Kelvin Herrera and (in 2015) Ryan Madson in anchoring some of the most imposing bullpens of the past decade. The dominant relief corps that Kansas City rode to a 2014 World Series loss and a 2015 World Series title, in many ways, helped to drive the emphasis teams place on cultivating a deep collection of power-armed relievers for ideal postseason usage.

Davis not only thrived in his return to the bullpen — he broke out as one of the best relief pitchers on the planet. He posted a flat 1.00 ERA with a 39.1% strikeout rate in 2014 — a brilliant strikeout rate even by today’s standards but a nearly unparalleled mark back in ’14, when the leaguewide strikeout rate was nearly four percent lower than at its recent peak in 2020. Davis finished eighth in Cy Young voting that season and somehow followed up with an even better year in 2015, when he posted a sub-1.00 ERA and landed sixth in AL Cy Young voting.

Davis’ dominance extended well beyond the regular season in that pair of World Series campaigns with Kansas City. He was almost comedically overpowering in the postseason, performing on a completely different level than the opposing lineups through which he breezed.  In 25 innings of postseason play from 2014-15, Davis allowed one earned run on just 14 hits with a staggering 38-to-5 K/BB ratio.

The Royals embarked on something of a rebuild in the 2016-17 offseason, as most of their World Series core reached or was nearing free agency. That prompted the Royals to flip Davis to the reigning World Champion Cubs, netting eventual American League home run leader Jorge Soler in return. Davis’ dominance largely continued in Chicago. In all, from 2014-17, Davis made three All-Star teams while pitching to a 1.45 ERA with 79 saves and a 33.1% strikeout rate in 241 1/3 regular-season innings (plus plenty of postseason mastery).

It was wholly unsurprising that he was in demand as a free agent that winter, and the Rockies rewarded Davis with a three-year, $52MM contract that established a new average annual salary record for a reliever at $17.33MM. Davis led the National League with 43 saves in 2018, his first season with the Rox, but things unraveled thereafter. Oblique and shoulder injuries weighed Davis down in subsequent seasons, and the Rockies released him in Sept. 2020 with just weeks remaining on that three-year pact.

The 2021 season marked something of a full-circle campaign for Davis, who returned to the Royals on a minor league deal and broke camp in the team’s bullpen. Forearm and continued shoulder troubles sent Davis to the injured list on multiple occasions, however, and his once-96.5 mph heater sat at a greatly diminished 92.8 mph. Davis managed 42 2/3 innings in relief, but he was hit hard and finished out the season with a 6.75 ERA.

All told, Davis will conclude his career at 63-55 with 141 saves, 270 games finished, a 3.94 ERA and 929 strikeouts in 990 1/3 regular-season innings. He tacked on an additional 40 innings of 1.80 ERA ball, four wins, eight saves and 57 strikeouts in a sensational postseason career. Davis made more than $87MM in a 13-year career and will forever be remembered by Royals faithful for the indelible role he played in Kansas City’s baseball renaissance in 2014-15.

Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

NPB’s Seibu Lions Sign Dietrich Enns

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TODAY: Enns is heading to Japan to sign with the Seibu Lions, the team announced.

NOVEMBER 17: The Rays are in the process of finalizing an agreement to send left-hander Dietrich Enns to a team either in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, the Korea Baseball Organization or Taiwan’s Chinese Professional Baseball League, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). Enns will be placed on release waivers today and, upon clearing Friday, will be free to sign with his new club.

Moves such as this one generally benefit all parties and are, of course, made with full consent from the player in question. Whichever team held interest in Enns would first contact the Rays, who’d then gauge the player’s interest in the opportunity before proceeding to negotiate a release agreement. Tampa Bay will likely receive some financial compensation for releasing Enns, while the pitcher himself will receive a larger salary in NPB or the KBO than he’d have earned as a fringe big leaguer in 2022 — if he’d even stuck on the Rays’ 40-man roster.

Enns, 30, was quite effective in 22 1/3 frames for the Rays this past season, pitching to a 2.82 ERA with an impressive 28.4% strikeout rate against a strong 6.8% walk rate. That marked the first big league action for Enns since a brief four-inning cup of coffee with the 2017 Twins, however, and the lefty’s minor league track record generally isn’t as strong as this past season’s results. Enns did post a 2.64 ERA in 71 2/3 Triple-A frames, but he carries a career 4.26 ERA with pedestrian strikeout and walk rates in nearly 400 innings at that level.

The benefit to the arrangement for Enns could be twofold. In addition to securing a guaranteed salary of some note for the first time in an 11-year professional career, he’ll also set himself up for the opportunity to potentially return to Major League Baseball outside the constructs of the arbitration system.

Had Enns remained with the Rays, he’d have needed another three years on the roster before qualifying for arbitration eligibility as a 33-year-old (at least, as the arbitration system currently stands). However, by going to NPB, the KBO or the CPBL, Enns could impress for only a season or two and then return on a guaranteed Major League deal. Chris Flexen, Merrill Kelly, Josh Lindblom and Miles Mikolas are among the recent players to go this route, securing considerable salaries overseas before returning to the big leagues on guaranteed, multi-year contracts that typically allow them to become free agents upon completion (rather than remain under control via arbitration). It’s not a foolproof gambit, of course, but even if Enns struggles in his new environs he’d still likely come away with more than he’d have earned with a big league club in 2022.

With the removal of Enns, the Rays’ 40-man roster will have three open spots. Topkin suggests that the Rays may look to open another spot or two prior to Friday’s Rule 5 protection deadline.

Looking For A Match In A Kevin Kiermaier Trade

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Back in March 2017, the Rays signed Kevin Kiermaier to a six-year, $53.5MM contract extension with the intention of locking in the Gold Glover as a fixture in the Tampa Bay outfield.  As that contract enters its final guaranteed year, the team’s plan came to fruition…sort of.  Kiermaier’s bat never took the expected leap forward, as he has hit .243/.307/.399 with 43 homers over 1817 plate appearances since the start of the 2017 season, translating to below-average (93 wRC+, 94 OPS+) offensive production.  He has also played in only 486 of a possible 708 games in that five-season stretch due to a multitude of injuries.

And yet despite the missed time and the lack of consistent hitting, Kiermaier has still been worth 10.3 fWAR over the last five seasons, in large part because he remains arguably the sport’s best defensive outfielder.  As per Fangraphs’ value metrics, Kiermaier has been worth $82.5MM from 2017-21, more than twice as much as his real-world earnings over the same period.

So in that sense, the Kiermaier extension has worked out for the Rays, and his presence (or lack thereof, when on the injured list) certainly hasn’t kept the team from enjoying quite a bit of on-field success.  But for a team with such a limited payroll as Tampa Bay, any player making an eight-figure salary who is providing anything less than superstar-level production might not be a fit in the Rays’ financial framework.  Indeed, it can be argued that if Kiermaier had been healthier over the last five years, the Rays might well have traded him long ago, given how often Kiermaier’s name has been whispered in trade rumors.

Heading into 2022, however, teams interested in acquiring Kiermaier face a bit less of a risk since he is only guaranteed one season’s worth of money.  The center fielder is set to earn $14.5MM in 2022 — $12MM in salary, and the $2.5MM buyout of a $13MM club option for 2023.  If Kiermaier can stay healthy and productive, then, a team could even exercise that option and keep him around for another year, adding a bit of a potential bonus to trading for the 31-year-old (who turns 32 in April).

“Less risk” doesn’t translate to no risk, of course, given Kiermaier’s checkered injury history.  Counting on him to be an everyday center fielder just doesn’t seem feasible both health-wise and perhaps based on Kiermaier’s numbers, such as his .663 career OPS against left-handed pitching.  If a team has a fairly inexpensive, right-handed hitting center field option already in place as a platoon partner, however, this club could take the plunge on Kiermaier and just hope that anything beyond two-thirds of a season would be gravy.

It is also quite possible that a Kiermaier trade would involve more than just Kiermaier.  The Rays could certainly package him together as part of a larger multi-player swap, or maybe just include a prospect along with Kiermaier in order to better entice another team to absorb that full $14.5MM salary.

From Tampa Bay’s perspective, Kiermaier’s center field role could be relatively easily filled by Manuel Margot, a strong defender in his own right.  The Rays’ starting outfield would then project as Margot, Randy Arozarena, and Austin Meadows, with Brett Phillips and Jordan Luplow as bench depth, Brandon Lowe and Vidal Brujan both capable of playing in the outfield, and top prospect Josh Lowe knocking on the door.  This abundance of outfield options makes Kiermaier all the more expendable.

This season’s free agent market is very short on true center fielders, as the class consists of Starling Marte and then a large group of players who can play center in a pinch, but are better suited for regular work in the corners or at other positions.  With pickings this slim on the center field front, teams in need of help up in the middle are more apt to check in with the Rays about Kiermaier, particularly clubs who miss out on Marte, or weren’t keen on meeting his asking price in the first place.

Let’s first omit the teams who either aren’t planning to contend in 2022 (the Orioles, Pirates, Diamondbacks), teams who may be more focused on payroll cuts than contending (Athletics, Reds), or the teams who are already have pretty solid center field options, or at least options that are comparable to what Kiermaier can provide — the Angels, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Guardians, Padres, Royals, and Tigers.  With these 13 clubs out of the way, let’s focus on how the remaining 16 teams break down as potential fits for a Kiermaier swap…

Teams Linked To Starling Marte

  • Phillies: The club parted ways with Odubel Herrera, and various in-house options (Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn, Mickey Moniak, Luke Williams) haven’t proven themselves capable of regular work at the big league level.  While the front office has implied that they have some room to spend, acquiring Kiermaier would be a relatively inexpensive way of addressing a major center field need, while allowing the Phillies to make a bigger splurge at another position.
  • Rangers: Texas is ready to spend this offseason, so Kiermaier’s salary wouldn’t be an issue for the Arlington club.  His shorter-term contract also gives the Rangers more flexibility with their outfield for any future moves next winter, when Texas might be making more of a full-on push to contend.  For what it’s worth, the Rays and Rangers have lined up on some notable trades in recent years.
  • Marlins: Kiermaier wouldn’t provide the hitting boost Miami is looking for, but there is obvious benefit to adding an elite defender to the outfield.  With Kiermaier providing extra coverage on the grass, the Marlins could be more open to adding a big hitter who is less-than-stellar with the glove (i.e. Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber) for a corner outfield slot.
  • Mets: The Amazins have long been looking for a true everyday center fielder, and Kiermaier would provide a hugely-needed defensive boost in the outfield.  One obstacle, however, could be that the Mets are already loaded with left-handed hitting outfield options.
  • Giants: Kind of an imperfect match, as San Francisco might feel they already have its own version of Kiermaier in Steven Duggar.  Signing Marte would be a more natural upgrade for the Giants’ center field needs, but Duggar is younger than Kiermaier, can provide maybe 80% of the same excellent glovework, and might have some untapped hitting upside.
  • Astros: A little similar to the Giants’ situation, as the Astros might feel the combination of Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, and Jose Siri can provide Kiermaier-esque production at a fraction of the price.  However, Meyers will miss at least some time at the start of the season recovering from shoulder surgery, and Astros GM James Click knows Kiermaier well from Click’s time working in Tampa Bay’s front office.
  • Yankees: Since Kiermaier and Aaron Hicks have equally spotty injury histories, New York might want a more stable option to replace or platoon with Hicks.  The Rays could also balk at dealing Kiermaier to a division rival.

Other Teams With Outfield Needs

  • Rockies: Kiermaier would look good in patrolling the vast Coors Field grass, and he would only help the run-prevention efforts of a Rockies team that was quietly one of the league’s better defensive clubs.  Garrett Hampson could act as a right-handed hitting platoon partner with Kiermaier in center, though some of the Rockies’ other outfielders (Raimel Tapia, Sam Hilliard, Yonathan Daza) could be even more expendable in other trades.
  • Nationals: Lane Thomas impressed after being acquired by the Cardinals, but since Thomas is a right-handed hitter, he could be paired with Kiermaier in center, or he could see time in left field.  If Washington did use Thomas in a more everyday capacity in left, a Kiermaier/Victor Robles could also work for center.
  • Mariners: Seattle technically already has an outfield surplus that will become even deeper once star prospect Julio Rodriguez makes his big league debut.  What the M’s don’t really have, however, is a true center field option, since Jarred Kelenic looks more suited for corner outfield work and Kyle Lewis is returning from major knee surgery.  Kiermaier would bring veteran experience and a great glove to the outfield, and the Mariners and Rays have a long history of swinging trades with each other.
  • Cubs: While Chicago could have been slotted in the “not sure how hard they’ll be trying to contend” group, the Cubs did have trade talks with the Rays about Kiermaier this past summer, even if Kiermaier’s inclusion may have been more about salary offset than a direct interest.  Still, Kiermaier would certainly fit as a regular center fielder, with Rafael Ortega then moving into something of a fourth outfield role.  Ultimately, the Cubs hope to have top prospect Brennen Davis seeing regular time in center field before the season is over, so Kiermaier would be something of a short-term fix that the Cubs might not feel they need to make with Ortega already around.
  • Braves: The World Series champions will have Ronald Acuna Jr. back at some point to join an outfield mix that includes Adam Duvall, Cristian Pache, Drew Waters, and Guillermo Heredia.  There is also the lingering uncertainty surrounding Marcell Ozuna, who will likely face a suspension under the MLB/MLBPA domestic violence policy.  Bringing Kiermaier to center field would help solidify the group, but as we saw last year, Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is pretty adept at rebuilding an outfield on the fly, so he might want to see how his current options play out before deciding if upgrades are necessary.

More Creative Options

  • Dodgers: Chris Taylor could leave in free agency and Cody Bellinger might not be a part of the Dodgers’ future, given his struggles over the last two regular seasons.  Therefore, the center field position might be in need of some help, and Dodgers president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman was the Rays’ GM when Kiermaier was initially drafted and developed in Tampa.
  • Red Sox: Speaking of former Rays executives now running other front offices, Chaim Bloom could see Kiermaier as a way of upgrading the shaky Red Sox defense.  Enrique Hernandez’s excellent center field glovework was a bright spot within that defensive corps, but with Kiermaier on board, Hernandez would be freed up for his intended super-utility role, with second base perhaps becoming his new regular position.  As noted earlier with the Yankees, trading Kiermaier within the division might not be Tampa’s preference.
  • White Sox: Another position change would be in the offing here, as while Luis Robert has looked pretty good as a defensive center fielder, he could slide nicely into a right field role if Kiermaier was acquired.  Robert could also return to center field when a lefty starter is on the mound, thus opening up playing time for Andrew Vaughn or Adam Engel.
  • Twins: Acquiring Kiermaier might only be a possibility for Minnesota if Byron Buxton is traded….or, maybe the Twins and Rays could arrange a trade involving both Kiermaier and Buxton.  Such a deal might not really fit for either team in center field specifically, so it would need to be a pretty interesting multi-player swap to make this scenario anything more than a longshot.

Needs Align For Rays, A’s In Honeywell Trade

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As you may have noticed during the 40-man roster hubbub, former top prospect Brent Honeywell Jr. was traded from the Rays to the Athletics in exchange for cash considerations. For the Rays, losing Honeywell was simply a roster crunch issue, as well as a desire to give him more opportunities, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. “We wanted more than anything to give him an opportunity to go somewhere and get a chance to pitch on a regular basis,” said Kevin Ibach, Rays senior director of pro personnel and pro scouting, per Topkin.

Honeywell made his way back from multiple arm injuries to make his Major League debut in 2021, but his future is simply too uncertain for the Rays, who are looking to maximize their competitive window in a tightly-contested AL East. The A’s, on the contrary, are looking to scale back their payroll. Honeywell, therefore, fits the bill for them as a high-ceiling, high-risk arm who bring a touch of intrigue to the roster.

The 26-year-old is out of options, so he’ll need to make the team out of spring training to avoid being exposed to waivers. He’s likely to pitch a swing role out of the bullpen, though much depends on what how many players the A’s ultimately end up dealing this winter.

The Rays have been typically proactive in clearing 40-man roster space this winter, dealing away Mike Brosseau, Louis Head, and prospect Tobias Myers in addition to Honeywell and southpaw Ryan Sherriff, who was claimed off waivers, and Adam Conley, who elected free agency after being designated for assignment. The Rays are not coy about trading prospects like Honeywell and Myers, especially as a means of “paying it forward,” or acquiring younger prospects for players that need to be on the 40-man roster.

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