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Jake Odorizzi Is Rays' Most Likely Trade Candidate

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Yankees hitters looked helpless against Astros pitchers Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series on Saturday, and part of the credit for that goes to Houston’s reliance on analytics, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic explains (subscription required and recommended). New York’s fastball-hitting offense had its way at times during a three-game home romp over Houston in the middle of the series, prompting the Astros’ analytics department to suggest the team’s pitchers throw more breaking balls. Morton and McCullers did just that in a 4-0 victory on Saturday, combining for 62 curveballs on 108 pitches. Incredibly, McCullers finished the game with 24 curves in a row to cap off four dominant innings. Afterward, pitching coach Brent Strom told Rosenthal: “I’ve got to hand this to our analytics people. “They said, ’Listen, this is where we’re making our mistakes. We need to throw as many curveballs as possible. This is a good fastball-hitting team.'”

  • Left-hander CC Sabathia, the losing pitcher in Game 7 of the ALCS, made it clear to reporters on Saturday that his preference is to continue with the Yankees – not depart in free agency – per Brendan Kuty of NJ.com. “This is where I want to play,” said the 37-year-old Sabathia, who has revived his career over the past couple seasons and is fresh off a four-start playoff run in which he pitched to a 2.37 ERA across 19 innings. The 2017 season was the ninth with the Yankees for Sabathia, who just wrapped up the five-year, $142MM extension he signed in 2011.
  • The Rays should be open to trading right-hander Jake Odorizzi, closer Alex Colome, outfielder/designated hitter Corey Dickerson and second baseman Brad Miller during the offseason, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times opines. All four players will go through arbitration in the winter, with Odorizzi projected to end up with the highest salary ($6.5MM). He’s also the player the Rays are most likely to trade, according to Topkin. Odorizzi, 27, is coming off a down season, but his impressive track record and two remaining years of affordable team control could lead to plenty of interest from starter-needy clubs.
  • Adding more left-handed hitters to balance out a righty-heavy lineup will be one of the Orioles’ most important offseason challenges, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun writes. The O’s projected lineup for 2018 includes just two lefty-swingers, first baseman Chris Davis and catcher Chance Sisco. Another could come in the form of an outfielder, suggests Encina, who names Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson as a few of several potential targets in free agency.

Mariners Send Osmy Gregorio To Rays To Complete Ryan Garton Trade

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The Seattle Mariners will send shortstop Osmy Gregorio to Tampa Bay, according to a tweet from Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. Gregorio will be the Player to be Named Later in the trade that sent left-hander Anthony Misiewicz and infielder Luis Rengifo to the Rays in exchange for right-hander Ryan Garton and catcher Mike Marjama.

Gregorio has played 101 games over the past two seasons between Seattle’s Rookie and Low-A minor league affiliates. The right-hander hit just .220/.288/.311 across both levels in 2017, but did manage to steal 15 bases. The 19 year-old international signee out of the Dominican Republic stands at 6-2 and weights 175 lbs.

Garton pitched to a 1.54 ERA across 13 appearances with the Mariners, with seven strikeouts and just one walk. However, his 4.07 SIERA and 4.35 xFIP show him to be a bit worse than his ERA suggests. Marjama collected three hits in nine plate appearances, including one home run in Seattle’s final game of the season.

 

AL East Notes: Rays, Jones, Tanaka

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In a fascinating article about the potential of a new Rays ballpark in Tampa Bay, Steve Contorno of the Tampa Bay Times gives insight into property trading as a method for acquiring land on which to build a new stadium. The mechanism is fairly simple at its core; Hillsborough County would trade parcels of valuable government-owned land near the downtown area to private property owners in exchange for their land in the Channel District-Ybor City area, where the county would like to build a new stadium. County Attorney Chip Fletcher confirmed with the Tampa Bay Times that the county is looking into these trades as a way to lower the cost of acquiring new property for a ballpark. Contorno’s piece offers a deep look into all the factors the county must consider when deciding whether this method truly makes sense from a business perspective. Rays fans (and Tampa Bay taxpayers) might enjoy learning about the complexities of the situation Hillsborough County faces.

More from around the American League’s Eastern Division…

  • While much has been made of stud third baseman Manny Machado’s potential exit from the Orioles after 2018, Rich Dubroff of PressBoxOnline.com examines the situation of another O’s icon in his final year; center fielder Adam Jones. Jones has manned center for ten consecutive years in Baltimore, thanks to a six-year, $85.5MM extension that made Dan Duquette’s front office look brilliant. Because Jones is a leader in the clubhouse and current franchise icon, Dubroff places a heavy weight on the decision Baltimore faces in whether or not to retain him. Jones has been worth 28.8 fWAR as a member of the Orioles’ organization, compiling 248 home runs and 802 RBI across 6,221 plate appearances while posting a .279/.319/.468 slash line, good for 109 wRC+. As of right now, the only guarantees the Orioles have on the books beyond 2018 are those of Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo and Darren O’Day, the latter two of whom become free agents after the 2019 season.
  • Is Masahiro Tanaka pitching his way off the Yankees roster? That’s the question Joel Sherman of the New York Post asked on Friday. Within three days of the conclusion of the World Series, Tanaka can choose to opt out of the final three years and $67MM on his contract. The former Japanese star is strengthening his value with each of his elite postseason starts so far in 2017, but his case for a larger contract goes beyond the postseason alone. While Sherman opines that Tanaka was expected not to opt out before October, that notion seems to entirely ignore the right-hander’s elite second half. After the All-Star break, Tanaka posted a 3.77 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP, with a wicked 10.73 K/9 and 1.65 BB/9. Strong peripheral stats, such as a 2.83 xFIP, point to Tanaka being one of the AL’s best starters during that span. Questions remain about the health of his elbow and his ability to keep the ball in the park, but as things stand right now, it seems likely that Tanaka could earn more than $67MM if he were to opt out and test the open market.

Rays Notes: Morrison, Ballpark, Coaches, McKay

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It seems like “a longshot” that Logan Morrison will return to the Rays next year, MLB.com’s Bill Chastain opines as part of a reader mailbag piece.  Morrison posted middling numbers in 2016 and underwent wrist surgery in September of that year, which cooled his free agent market to the point that the Rays were able to re-sign him to a one-year, $2.5MM deal.  That proved to be a nice bargain for Tampa Bay, as Morrison hit .246/.353/.516 with 38 homers over 601 plate appearances.  The Rays seem committed to giving rookie Jake Bauers a shot at first base next year but are looking for a veteran depth option, and they’d certainly be open to a reunion with Morrison if he again faced a thin market.  However, Morrison’s career year has likely earned him a steadier full-time gig and priced him out of Tampa’s plans.  Here’s some more on the Rays…

  • Hillsborough Country officials have run into difficulty trying to secure downtown land for the Rays’ new ballpark, forcing the search for a new site to expand to Tampa’s West Shore area, Steve Contorto of the Tampa Bay Times reports.  While the West Shore area has some positives as a potential ballpark site, “broadening the hunt at this point — 22 months after St. Petersburg allowed the Rays to search for a new home away from Tropicana Field — can only be seen as a step backward for an effort many hoped would have been wrapped up by now,” Contorto writes.  It isn’t certain if a new site will be agreed upon before the year is over, and once a site is found, there’s still the large matter of determining of how the costs of the new ballpark will be split between the team and the county.
  • The Rays have 5-10 candidates on their list of potential interviewees for their vacant third base coach and assistant hitting coach vacancies, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.  Tigers third base coach Dave Clark, Phillies third base coach Juan Samuel, former Mariners bench coach Tim Bogar and Triple-A hitting coach Ozzie Timmons are all possible candidates, with Topkin wondering if Red Sox third base coach Brian Butterfield could also get some consideration.
  • Top prospect Brendan McKay will be working strictly as a position player during instructional league action this fall, though Rays director of minor league operations Mitch Lukevics tells MLB.com’s Mike Rosenbaum that this decision was made due to McKay already throwing quite a few innings this year between college and minor league games.  The fourth overall pick of the 2017 draft posted a 1.80 ERA over 20 IP at low-A ball this season while hitting .232/.349/.376 in his first 149 professional plate appearances, playing at first base and serving as a designated hitter.  It it yet to be seen if “Two Way McKay” will continue both pitching and playing in the field, though the Rays still appear open to using McKay in this intriguing dual capacity.

Rays Likely To Issue Alex Cobb Qualifying Offer

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  • Though payroll is always an issue for the Rays, they’re nonetheless expected to make righty Alex Cobb an $18.1MM qualifying offer, per Heyman. The 30-year-old logged a career-high 179 1/3 innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, pitching to a 3.66 ERA with 6.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 47.8 percent ground-ball rate. Cobb should draw widespread interest, though I’d personally imagine that the fact that he’s yet to ever reach even 180 innings in a single season (to say nothing of 2017’s diminished strikeout rate) will limit his marketability to some extent. Still, Cobb should be able to score a more lucrative multi-year deal, and it’s difficult to imagine him accepting a QO.

Rays Outright Kevin Gadea

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  • The Rays have outrighted right-hander Kevin Gadea to Triple-A Durham, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Gadea joined the Rays last December as a Rule 5 pick from the Mariners, but elbow problems prevented him from throwing a pitch with his new organization in 2017. Tampa Bay offered Gadea back to Seattle after removing the 22-year-old from the 60-day disabled list and before outrighting him, but the Mariners declined, Topkin reports. Therefore, unless someone takes Gadea in this year’s Rule 5 draft, he’ll stay with the Rays.

Inside The Rays' Coaching Changes

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  • “It was just time” for the Rays to shake up their coaching staff, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, though this need manifested itself in a few different ways.  Pitching coach Jim Hickey, for instance, said he had a “difference of opinion” about the team’s plan to go to the bullpen earlier in the games.  Hickey already seemed likely to leave when his contract was up after the 2018 season, with an eye towards joining a more consistent contender.  The Mets and Cardinals have already been rumored to be after Hickey to fill their pitching coach vacancies this winter.  The Rays’ changes have resulted in just one coach (bullpen coach Stan Boroski) remaining from Joe Maddon’s staff, so manager Kevin Cash now has more of his own people in place.

Tom Foley Out As Rays' Bench Coach

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  • The Rays intend to promote Triple-A pitching coach Kyle Snyder to the big league job, and also move third base coach Charlie Montoyo to bench coach, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link).  Snyder spent parts of five seasons with the Royals and Red Sox from 2003-08, including tossing 54 1/3 relief innings for Boston during its World Series championship season in 2007.  Snyder has been a pitching coach in the Rays organization since 2012 and he has been at Triple-A Durham since 2015.  Montoyo has been part of Tampa’s organization since 1997, serving at a minor league manager at all levels before taking the third base coaching job in 2015.  The Tigers and Mets have both reportedly shown interest in Montoyo as a managerial candidate, so his promotion to bench coach could presumably be short-lived if he is offered a managing job.
  • Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey won’t return to his position next year, as he and the team have mutually decided to part ways, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (via Twitter).  One of the game’s longest-tenured pitching coaches, Hickey has been with the Rays since November 2006, overseeing the development of several notable Rays arms.  Prior to coming to Tampa, Hickey served as the Astros’ pitching coach for two and a half season, plus over eight more years as a pitching coach in Houston’s minor league system.
  • Tom Foley will not return as the bench coach for the Rays in 2018, Mark Topkins of the Tampa Bay Times reports. The decision was mutual. Foley has been a coach for Tampa Bay since 2002; he’ll now reportedly take on a different role within the organization.

Latest On Shohei Otani

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  • Perhaps with this in mind, the Rays are also “sincere” about their interest in Otani, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  The Rays usually don’t have the financial resources to compete for blue-chip international talent, though Otani’s situation presents a unique opportunity.  The Rays can offer Otani a chance to both pitch and hit, and they can point to their willingness to let fourth overall pick Brendan McKay be a two-way player as an example of their flexibility.

Tigers Ask Rays About Charlie Montoyo As Managerial Candidate

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If this is it for Jaso, the 34-year-old will be hanging up the spikes after 2591 career PA over parts of nine seasons with the Rays, Mariners, A’s and (for the last two seasons) Pirates.  Injuries and struggles against left-handed pitching limited Jaso’s usage as an everyday player, though he was very productive in various part-time capacities.  Jaso posted good career splits against right-handed pitching and was an above-average run producer overall in six of his eight full seasons, finishing with a 115 wRC+ for his career.  If this it for Jaso, we wish him congratulations on a fine career and we tip our hats to his most immediate postseason endeavor — helping with relief efforts in Puerto Rico.

  • The Tigers have asked the Rays about third base coach Charlie Montoyo, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links).  It’s hard to know where Montoyo sits on the Tigers’ list of managerial candidates due to the sheer number of names in their search; according to Heyman, Detroit began the process with around 50 names under consideration.  Montoyo, who has also drawn interest from the Mets, has been Tampa’s third base coach for three seasons and a manager at all rungs of their minor league system from 1997-2014.

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