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Latest On Kyle Tucker’s Market

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We’re still in the nascent stages of the MLB offseason, with only a handful of notable free-agent signings and trades thus far. Still, with the GM Meetings now in the rearview mirror, teams have laid a fair bit of groundwork for the weeks and months ahead, both on the free agent and trade markets. Kyle Tucker stands as the offseason’s top free agent, and while there’s no indication he’s close to signing, there are also some hints falling into place about his potential market.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this week that some rival teams feel the Blue Jays are the likeliest landing spot for the four-time All-Star. They’ve been a popular speculative pick early on after a deep World Series run and with only one other major long-term commitment (Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) on the books. Of course, Bo Bichette could be the priority, and it’s rare for any team to sign two free agents of that magnitude in a single offseason.

Tucker is a prominent enough star that some unexpected suitors figure to jump into the fray. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that while the Orioles are prioritizing pitching this winter, they haven’t ruled out a run at Tucker. Having already acquired Taylor Ward from the Angels, the addition of Tucker would free Baltimore to dangle young outfielders Colton Cowser and Dylan Beavers on the trade market in hopes of securing some controllable arms. There are quite a few pitchers of note who could be on the block this winter, and both Cowser and Beavers would intrigue clubs looking to move arms. Both are former first-round picks. Cowser has four more seasons of club control, while Beavers only debuted late in 2025 and thus has a full slate of six years of club control remaining.

Baltimore stands as a fascinating fit. President of baseball operations Mike Elias was the Astros’ scouting director when Tucker was selected with the No. 5 overall pick. The O’s don’t have anything on the books long-term, other than Samuel Basallo’s eight-year, $67MM extension. That $8.375MM annual value isn’t going to be stand in the way of any other long-term deals. Beyond Basallo, Tyler O’Neill is the only other player signed to a guaranteed deal beyond the 2026 season. His three-year, $49.5MM contract runs through 2028.

The Orioles’ long-term financial outlook is so clean that there’s no true impediment to them signing Tucker and a notable a free agent starter. That’s not to say such a scenario is likely, of course, but Baltimore’s 2026 payroll currently projects for about $105MM, per RosterResource, and that’s before potential non-tenders or trades of Ryan Mountcastle ($7.8MM projected salary), Keegan Akin ($3MM projection), Yennier Cano ($1.8MM projection) and/or Alex Jackson ($1.8MM projection) prior to tomorrow’s 5pm ET non-tender deadline.

Depending on what happens with the Orioles’ arbitration class, they could realistically see next year’s projected payroll drop into the $93-100MM range by tomorrow evening. The opened the 2025 season with a payroll around $164.5MM. We’re certainly not accustomed to seeing Baltimore spend like this, but this is also only the second offseason under new owner David Rubenstein. Elias has already publicly stated that he is “fully prepared” to sacrifice draft picks by signing free agents who rejected qualifying offers, and for all the focus on pitching, it was reported more than a month ago that the O’s also covet an impact bat — likely in the outfield.

None of this is intended to frame the Orioles as any sort of favorite to sign Tucker, to be clear. Far from it. However, the fit and logic behind it are probably more sensible than one might think at first glance.

Other clubs will still loom in the market. Passan cites the Phillies as a possible landing spot, should Kyle Schwarber sign elsewhere. The Yankees have been linked to both Tucker and a Cody Bellinger reunion. GM Brian Cashman indicated this week that Trent Grisham’s decision to accept his qualifying offer will not impact the team’s pursuit of Bellinger. Presumably, then, that thinking extends to Tucker as well. The Dodgers have also been linked to Tucker, though Passan doubles down on his prior reporting that their interest would “likely” be on a shorter-term but high-AAV deal — the type we rarely see taken by the consensus top free agent in a given offseason.

Blue Jays, Dodgers Interested In Cody Bellinger

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The Yankees are known to have interest in reuniting with Cody Bellinger, even after Trent Grisham accepted the qualifying offer yesterday, but they will have competition. Bellinger has already been connected to the Mets and Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that the Blue Jays and Dodgers have interest in him as well.

Passan notes that the Jays want a left-handed complement to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. They have a few lefties projected to be in next year’s lineup. That includes Addison Barger, Daulton Varsho and Nathan Lukes, but there’s room for improvement there. Barger has shown signs he could be a middle-of-the-order bat but his track record in the majors isn’t especially long yet. Varsho has some home run pop but isn’t an elite hitter overall. Lukes is a pesky, contact-oriented type.

The Jays have already been connected to Kyle Tucker, a lefty swinger who happens to be the top free agent available. Bellinger hasn’t been quite at Tucker’s level for most of the recent past but he is coming off a better platform season. Passan writes that the Jays view Bellinger as an acceptable fallback to Tucker.

Bellinger just had a strong 2025 campaign with the Yankees. He hit 29 home runs while only striking out 13.7% of the time. His .272/.334/.480 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 125. He stole 13 bases and got strong defensive grades, playing all three outfield spots as well as first base.

There were some concerning elements under the hood. None of Bellinger’s 29 home runs went to the opposite field. He had a .302/.365/.544 slash and 152 wRC+ when playing at Yankee Stadium with its short porch in right field. He had a .241/.301/.414 line and 97 wRC+ on the road.

In the past, the market hasn’t always jumped on Bellinger, even when he has put up good numbers. It’s possible that is related to his unimpressive batted ball metrics, which are still present. In 2025, his average exit velocity, hard hit rate and barrel rate were all in the 36th percentile or worse.

Coming off a strong season in 2023, Bellinger reportedly went out looking for $200MM and didn’t find it. He had to settle for a three-year, $80MM deal with opt-outs. His 2024 season was mediocre enough that he didn’t even trigger the first opt-out chance. The Cubs sent him to the Yanks in what was effectively a salary dump deal, though he bounced back enough to trigger his second opt-out.

Observant Jays fans will know that the club has been connected to Bellinger throughout his ups and downs, so it’s perhaps unsurprising that they have him on the radar again. The question will be if they make him a priority with Tucker and Bo Bichette still out there. MLBTR predicted Bellinger to secure $140MM over five years, significantly less than the predictions for Tucker and Bichette but still a hefty commitment.

The Jays have a number of incumbent outfield options but there’s some flexibility in it. In addition to the aforementioned Varsho and Lukes, George Springer and Anthony Santander are likely to be sharing one corner and the designated hitter spot. There’s also guys like Barger and Davis Schneider, though those two are capable of playing the infield. Myles Straw is around as a glove-first bench guy. Signing another outfielder would likely push Lukes to a part-time position and Barger and Schneider to more full-time infield roles.

RosterResource projects the Jays for a payroll of about $233MM next year. That’s more than $20MM shy of their year-end figure in 2025. Getting back to that level would leave room for a notable addition but they would likely have to increase spending to make more than one marquee move. With needs on the pitching side of things as well, they may have to divert some of their recent extra revenue from their playoff run into next year’s team. Perhaps they will put more of a focus on Bichette but Bellinger is a possible fallback and getting both isn’t entirely impossible.

As for the Dodgers, the outfield does stand out as a place for them to add. The roster is obviously in a good place, as they just won the World Series and didn’t lose any major contributors to free agency. But if you’re looking for a place to find weak spots, the grass is a bit patchy. The Michael Conforto signing was a bust. Teoscar Hernández had an uneven season. Andy Pages had a decent year but his bat disappeared in the playoffs. Tommy Edman can play the outfield but is now recovering from ankle surgery and might be needed at second base.

Despite the need, it would be surprising if Bellinger was the solution. He was drafted by the Dodgers and spent the first six seasons of his career there but didn’t seem to part on good terms. Scott Boras, Bellinger’s agent, publicly blamed the Dodgers for Bellinger’s struggles in 2021 and 2022 after shoulder surgery. That prompted Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman to respond and defend the club. Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times was among those to relay the play-by-play of that saga back in 2023.

Given the tension there, perhaps a reunion isn’t especially likely. On the other hand, it’s not as though the situation has prevented the Dodgers and Boras from doing business. Since that spat, the Dodgers have signed Boras clients like Conforto, Blake Snell and James Paxton. If the Dodgers really want Bellinger and are willing to pay, that should win out over past squabbles.

On the other hand, it’s not clear if the Dodgers want to make a big splash in the outfield. They have also been connected to Tucker but with some reporting suggesting they might prefer to make a short-term addition as they wait for their outfield prospects to arrive. Josue De Paula, Zyhir Hope, Mike Sirota and Eduardo Quintero are all outfielders in the system and all four have been on top 100 prospect lists. They aren’t immediate fixes since no one in the quartet has reached Triple-A yet, but the Dodgers might be inclined to wait, as opposed to signing an outfielder to a mega deal. Having just won a second straight title, perhaps there’s less pressure for them to win the offseason.

Photo courtesy of Kevin Sousa, Imagn Images

Blue Jays Select Ricky Tiedemann

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The Blue Jays have selected the contract of top pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann, per a club announcement. They’re now up to 38 players on the 40-man roster.

Tiedemann, 23, didn’t pitch this past season while recovering from Tommy John surgery performed in July 2024. Be that as it may, given how highly regarded the 2021 third-rounder had become prior to that injury, he’d surely have been scooped up by a non-contending club in next month’s Rule 5 Draft.

Though Tiedemann still hasn’t topped the 78 2/3 innings he pitched in his first full professional season back in 2022, he ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects at Baseball America in each of the past three offseasons. He’s pitched to a career 3.02 ERA in the minors and fanned a gargantuan 39.6% of his opponents. His 11.9% walk rate clearly needs refinement, but the 6’4″, 220-pound Tiedemann carries substantial upside as a potential playoff-caliber starter or a late-game reliever with possibly elite bat-missing abilities.

Nine Players Reject Qualifying Offer

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The deadline to accept the qualifying offer has passed. Four players — Trent Grisham, Gleyber Torres, Brandon Woodruff, and Shota Imanaga — chose to accept the one-year, $22.025MM deal and remain with their current clubs. The remaining nine players rejected the deal. They are: Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker, Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber, Blue Jays infielder Bo Bichette, Astros lefty Framber Valdez, Padres righty Dylan Cease, Phillies lefty Ranger Suarez, Mets closer Edwin Diaz, Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen, and Padres righty Michael King. All nine are now free agents.

There’s not much surprise in any of the nine players who rejected. Tucker, Schwarber, Bichette, Valdez, Cease, Suarez and Diaz were all locks. Gallen may have given some brief thought to accepting after a rough showing in 2025, but he finished strong and has a track record as a high-end starter who’s garnered multiple top-five finishes in NL Cy Young balloting. King was hobbled by nerve and knee injuries in an odd season but was dominant in 2023-24 and through the first two months of the current season. He was healthy late in the year and fanned three in his lone inning of postseason work. He’ll test the waters in search of a multi-year deal as well.

Now that this nonet has rejected qualifying offers, they’ll all be subject to draft compensation. Interested teams will need to surrender a draft pick (or multiple picks) and, in some cases, space from their bonus pool for international amateurs in order to sign any of this group. The extent of that draft compensation depends on the revenue-sharing and luxury tax status of the new team. MLBTR broke down which pick(s) each club would forfeit by signing a “qualified” free agent last month.

Similarly, the compensation for each player’s former club is dependent on revenue-sharing and luxury tax status — as well as the size of the contract signed by the player in question. MLBTR also ran through the compensation each team would receive if their qualified free agents turned down the offer and signed elsewhere.

Nick Sandlin Elects Free Agency

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November 17: Sandlin has indeed rejected his outright assignment and elected free agency, according to an announcement from the Blue Jays.

November 15: The Blue Jays outrighted Nick Sandlin off the 40-man roster, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction tracker. Sandlin has over three years of service time and will surely elect free agency in the coming days.

It’s effectively an early non-tender of the righty reliever. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Sandlin for a $2MM salary if he were tendered an arbitration contract. That’s not a huge amount, but the Jays soured on his future enough that they didn’t want to lock him into a middle relief role going into next season.

This drops their roster count from 38 to 37. Teams need to decide which eligible prospects they want to keep out of the Rule 5 draft by Tuesday evening. The Jays have an extra spot available than they would have had if they’d waited until Friday’s non-tender deadline to make the cut.

Toronto acquired Sandlin as a secondary piece of last winter’s Andrés Giménez trade. The Southern Mississippi product had pitched to a 3.27 earned run average over parts of four seasons in Cleveland. Sandlin never had great control, but he missed a good number of bats behind a plus slider and a promising splitter. The Jays hoped he could take on a higher-leverage role after being more of a sixth/seventh inning type in a loaded Cleveland bullpen.

Injuries kept that from happening. Sandlin went down three weeks into the season with a lat strain. He returned in mid-June but was shut back down after nine appearances by elbow inflammation. The latter injury ended his year. Sandlin tossed 16 1/3 innings overall. He gave up seven runs (four earned) with 16 strikeouts and eight walks. He recorded five holds and a save but also surrendered three leads.

Sandlin’s stuff was diminished. He averaged career lows on both his slider (78.4 MPH) and four-seam fastball (91.4). While he has never been a flamethrower, his heater was in the 94-95 MPH range during his rookie season and sat between 92-93 last year. Other teams evidently share the Jays’ concerns about the diminished velocity. Sandlin cleared waivers, suggesting no club wanted to take a flier and tender him at that projected $2MM price.

Blue Jays Showing Interest In Raisel Iglesias

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The Blue Jays are among the teams with interest in free agent closer Raisel Iglesias, reports Francys Romero. That’s a logical fit with Toronto on the hunt for a late-game arm. They’ve also been linked to Edwin Díaz at the top of the relief market.

Iglesias remains one of the better relievers in MLB as he enters his age-36 season. The Cuban-born righty is coming off a 3.21 earned run average in 67 1/3 innings for the Braves. Iglesias went 29-34 in save chances, narrowly missing what would have been his sixth career 30-save campaign. Iglesias punched out an above-average 27.4% of opponents while limiting walks to a 6% clip. He got swinging strikes nearly 15% of the time while still getting opponents to frequently chase outside the strike zone.

In aggregate, this year was Iglesias’ worst since at least 2019. That’s mostly attributable to an early-season home run spike. He gave up seven longballs before the end of May and carried a near-6.00 ERA into June. Once he got the home runs in check, Iglesias looked like his usually excellent self. He turned in a 1.96 ERA with a 29.3% strikeout percentage over the final four months. Opponents hit .163/.224/.219 with one homer in their last 174 plate appearances.

Jays general manager Ross Atkins has already said they’re not committed to keeping Jeff Hoffman in the ninth inning. Signing a closer would allow manager John Schneider to use Hoffman as a multi-inning leverage arm earlier in games. Hoffman allowed the second-most home runs (15) among MLB relievers this year. The longball is the biggest concern with Iglesias as well but not to the same extent.

Iglesias’ age is going to cap him at a maximum of two years. He should command an eight-figure annual salary. The Braves didn’t find much trade interest with Iglesias making $16MM this past summer. He elevated his stock by allowing just one run in 23 2/3 frames after the deadline, so it’s not out of the question that he commands something similar to this year’s salary on the open market. That’d especially be true if he takes a one-year guarantee, though MLBTR predicted he’d command a two-year contract at $13MM annually.

The Dodgers are the only other team that has been publicly connected to Iglesias this offseason. The Braves don’t have an obvious closing replacement and will probably stay in touch, but president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said this week that they’re focused on shortstop and the rotation in the short term. If Iglesias receives strong two-year offers this month, he could sign elsewhere before the Braves are ready to pivot to the bullpen.

Blue Jays Targeting High-Leverage Relievers

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The Blue Jays are targeting high-leverage relievers, reports Mitch Bannon of The Athletic. Free agent Edwin Díaz appears to be one possibility, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal frames the Jays as the main threat to poach Díaz from the Mets. Rosenthal reports that the Jays recently met with Díaz’s representatives from Wasserman, though he also notes that may not mean anything since everyone meets with everyone at this time of year. Jeff Jones of The Belleville News-Democrat reports that the Jays were interested in Ryan Helsley ahead of the deadline. He is now a free agent and could be a target as well. The Jays were also connected to Pete Fairbanks earlier this week.

The Jays have seemingly been casting a wide net early in the offseason, having been connected to all kinds of different pursuits. The bullpen is one thing on their list and it’s a sensible one. The Jays had a middling relief group in 2025. Toronto relievers had a collective 3.98 earned run average, which was 16th out of the 30 big league clubs. Closer Jeff Hoffman had a 4.37 ERA for the year. He dominated through most of the playoffs but then surrendered the big Miguel Rojas home run when the Jays were two outs away from a title.

Last week, general manager Ross Atkins said that Hoffman would be open to moving to a different role if the Jays found another closer. It seems the Jays are indeed considering that. Díaz is one of the best closers in the game today. He already has 253 saves under his belt. He just wrapped up a season in which he had 1.63 ERA, 38% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate and 48.4% ground ball rate.

He has been with the Mets since 2019 and it might be assumed by some that he will end up back in Queens. He was approaching free agency three years ago but signed a five-year, $102MM deal to stay with the Mets just days before he was set to hit the open market. That deal contained an opt-out after three years, which Díaz triggered. He is now a free agent for the first time.

The Mets could certainly re-sign him but it doesn’t seem to be a fait accompli. Díaz himself said this week he has been talking with the Mets but put the odds of a return at 50/50, per Laura Albanese of Newsday. “If they came with the best deal for me, I’d enjoy to stay with them,” Díaz said, “but at the end of the day, I don’t know what they’re thinking.”

Díaz is still quite a good reliever but he is three years older than when he signed his previous deal. MLBTR predicted him to secure a four-year, $82MM pact this time around, a similar average annual value but on a shorter commitment since he’ll turn 32 years old in a few months. Díaz appears to be setting his sights a bit higher than that. Earlier this week, reporting from Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic indicated he is looking for roughly the same kind of deal he got last time. Bob Nightengale of USA Today echoed that this week, reporting that Díaz is looking for at least $100MM over five years.

That would be a notable expenditure for any club. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the $102MM guarantee from the previous Díaz deal is still the record for a reliever. The $20.4MM AAV is also top of the list, apart from swingman Nick Martinez accepting a $21.1MM qualifying offer from the Reds a year ago.

Whether the Jays would be willing to do that remains to be seen. They’ve never given a reliever more than the three years and $33MM they gave to Hoffman a year ago. They might have to triple that to land Díaz. Perhaps getting so close to a World Series will push them there, both because the bullpen let the last game slip away and because they presumably raked in a bunch of extra money from the deep playoff run.

RosterResource projects the Jays for a $235MM payroll next year, more than $20MM shy of their year-end figure in 2025. It’s unknown how high they are willing to go in the wake of their 2025 run. Presumably, there is a limit somewhere and they will have to balance their desire for Díaz against pursuits of Bo Bichette, Kyle Tucker, starting pitching and so on. Díaz also rejected a qualifying offer. Since the Jays paid the competitive balance tax in 2025, signing a player tied to a QO means they would have to forfeit two draft picks and international bonus pool space.

The Mets have been operating with very few payroll limits in recent years but David Stearns has shown a measured approach to building his pitching staff since taking the president of baseball operations job. Despite having Steve Cohen’s seemingly boundless resources, he hasn’t given a pitcher a deal longer than three years yet. The bullpen has mostly been built with one-year deals. A.J. Minter got two years with an opt-out in the middle, though his lack of health in 2025 means he will be coming back for that second year.

Some may speculate that Cohen would just override Stearns and bring back Díaz as a fan favorite. Rosenthal downplays this notion is his column, linked above, referring back to the 50/50 comments from Díaz.

Turning back to the Jays, they could also shop in a different aisle. As mentioned, they have been connected to Fairbanks, who will be far cheaper than Díaz. That’s also true of Helsley, who has a strong track record but is coming off a poor platform season.

From 2022 to 2024, Helsley tossed 167 2/3 innings with a 1.83 ERA, 34.6% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate. In 2025, his ERA jumped to 4.50 as his strikeout rate fell to 25%. He was especially bad after getting traded from the Cardinals to the Mets at the deadline, with a 7.20 ERA after that swap.

That obviously puts a big dent in his earning power but he should still get interest as a bounceback candidate. Plenty of clubs would be happy to try him on a one-year deal with the hope that 2025 was a blip. He might also have enough juice for two years with an opt-out. MLBTR went the latter route, predicting him for a two-year, $24MM guarantee.

There’s no denying the trend lines aren’t good. Helsley’s strikeout rate has gone from 39.3% in 2022 to 35.6%, 29.7% and 25% in the most recent seasons. But he still averaged 99.3 miles per hour on his fastball this year, a tiny drop from his peak of 99.7 mph in in 2023. He may have been tipping his pitches and he also surrendered a fairly high .342 batting average on balls in play. His 14.5% home run to fly ball ratio was far worse than previous seasons. Part of that was him getting hit harder than before but some teams may feel he could be back to his old self with a tweak or two.

If the Jays circle back to Helsley, that would be a far different addition than Díaz. Díaz is about as rock-solid as a closer gets these days and would immediately supplant Hoffman as the top guy in the bullpen. Helsley would be a lower-cost flier and would surely start lower in the pecking order before having to earn his way up. How the Jays play it will presumably depend on the other market factors and how things play out with the other things on their to-do list.

Photo courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images

Giants To Hire Hunter Mense As Hitting Coach

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The Giants are going to hire Blue Jays assistant hitting coach Hunter Mense as their hitting coach, reports Mitch Bannon of The Athletic. Yesterday, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reported that the Giants were targeting Mense.

Mense, 41, played baseball at the University of Missouri at the same time as new Giants manager Tony Vitello. Mense was drafted by the Marlins and played in the minor league system for a while, then spent some time in indy ball. Once his playing days were done, he pivoted to coaching, working in the Blue Jays’ minor league system.

He was promoted to the major league staff ahead of the 2022 season. It’s always tough to give one coach credit for the performance of several players, but for what it’s worth, the Jays have performed well during his time as an assistant hitting coach. Over the past four years, the Jays have a .257/.326/.416 line and 109 wRC+, which puts them fourth-best in the majors.

Last week, Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said there would be no “proactive subtractions” from the coaching staff. However, it seems Mense has been lured to San Francisco by his former college teammate offering him a promotion. The Giants have had Pat Burrell as their hitting coach for the past two years. It was reported last week that he would be staying with the Giants but in a different role.

The Giants have been hovering around .500 for the past four years. In 2025, they hit .235/.311/.386 for a wRC+ of 97. Perhaps a full season from Rafael Devers and/or a breakout from Bryce Eldridge will help them break through, but Mense will also try to do his part to help. The Jays will presumably look to add an assistant to replace Mense, whether that’s an internal promotion or external hire.

Photo courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images

Latest On Blue Jays’ Pursuits

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The Jays came so close to winning it all in 2025 and all signs point to them being aggressive in reloading for 2026. From the General Managers Meetings in Las Vegas, Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet as well as Mitch Bannon of The Athletic report that all signs point to the Jays being strongly involved in various markets, including starting pitchers, relievers and position players.

That’s not surprising framing. The Jays have been one of the more active clubs in recent winters, which has included pursuits of big names like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and others. Though they missed on those guys, they have signed seven different free agents to deals of at least three years in length over the past five years. Those were George Springer, Anthony Santander, Kevin Gausman, Yariel Rodríguez, Jeff Hoffman, Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt. They are fresh off a deep playoff run that presumably swelled the coffers a bit and could reinvest some of that into the roster.

Adding to the bullpen would be a logical move, as Toronto’s relief corps was middling this year. The club’s relievers had a collective 3.98 earned run average, which placed them 16th out of the 30 major league teams. They added Seranthony Domínguez and Louis Varland at the deadline but Domínguez is now a free agent. The closer, Hoffman, posted a 4.37 ERA and could be open to moving to a setup role.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the Jays and Dodgers are two clubs expected to pursue Pete Fairbanks, who just became a free agent when the Rays declined his player option. Though the Dodgers just won the title, they did so despite their bullpen falling apart throughout the year. Manager Dave Roberts leaned heavily on his starters through the playoffs, which included using all of Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game Seven of the World Series.

Fairbanks would make sense on a lot of clubs but the Dodgers and Jays are certainly two of them. He spent the last three years as the closer in Tampa, saving at least 23 games in each of those seasons. He also finished each season with an ERA below 3.58, including a 2.83 mark in 2025.

However, there are some yellow flags with Fairbanks. Injuries have been a big part of his career. 2025 was the first time he ever reached the 50-inning plateau in a season. Though he has continued to have good results in the ERA department, other numbers are less encouraging. Over 2022 and 2023, he struck out 39.1% of batters faced, but he was down to 24% over the two most recent seasons. His velocity also dropped two ticks, as he was around 99 miles per hour with his fastball in 2022-23 but has been closer to 97 mph since then.

Teams should still be interested in Fairbanks but the declines have presumably impacted his market. The Rays had an $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout, a net $10MM decision. They presumably tried to trade Fairbanks before declining that and didn’t find too much interest. Teams are usually wary of committing money so early in the offseason but someone would have jumped if they felt that was a bargain.

He could get a one-year deal somewhere in the vicinity of that option price but a multi-year pact at a similar annual value is also possible. The Dodgers and Jays, as well as almost any other club, could easily afford that.

But Fairbanks is just one of dozens of options on the relief market. Bannon mentions Phil Maton and Tyler Kinley as possible fits, seemingly in speculative fashion. Maton has been putting up good numbers for years but the market hasn’t paid him, presumably because he barely gets his velo over 90 mph. His past two trips to free agency have led to modest one-year deals. He got $6.5MM from the Rays going into 2024 and $2MM from the Cardinals last winter.

Dating back to the start of 2022, Maton has thrown 257 innings with a 3.33 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. He was even better in 2025, with a 2.79 ERA, 32.7% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 44.4% grounder rate. He’s generally one of the best pitchers in the league in terms of minimizing hard contract, which was still the case this year. His average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit rate were all in at least the 98th percentile of pitchers, according to Statcast. That strong season should earn him a raise but the market has already shrugged him off twice, so he shouldn’t break the bank.

Kinley has spent most of his career pitching for the Rockies, so he has some big ERAs on his track record. However, he finished 2025 strong. Atlanta acquired him at the deadline and then Kinley posted a 0.72 ERA over 25 innings once he was away from Coors Field. There was some good luck in there but his 23.4% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate were decent figures. Despite that finish, Atlanta turned down a $5.5MM club option, going for a $750K buyout instead. If that’s any indication of how the market perceives him, he should be very affordable for the Jays or any club.

Turning to the rotation, general manager Ross Atkins has already indicated that starting pitching will be a target. There are many ways to do that and Bannon reports that the Jays are going after the guys at the top of the market.

As Bannon mentions, the top free agent starters available are guys like Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez and Tatsuya Imai. MLBTR predicted those four to each get deals of at least five years with a guarantee of at least $115MM. The Jays have gone to that range with a pitcher before, as their aforementioned Gausman deal was for $110MM over five years. Depending on how the markets for these pitchers play out, landing one might require stretching a bit farther. MLBTR predicted Cease to get $189MM over seven years, while Valdez and Imai each got $150MM predictions, Valdez over five and Imai over six.

The Jays got a gift when Shane Bieber decided not to opt out of his deal. He took a $16MM salary for 2026 instead of a $4MM buyout, effectively taking $12MM while spurning the chance to head to free agency in search of more. That leaves the Jays with a rotation core of Gausman, Bieber and Trey Yesavage. They should have José Berríos at the back somewhere, as he is expected to be healthy by next year.

Guys like Eric Lauer, Bowden Francis, Ricky Tiedemann, Adam Macko, Lázaro Estrada and others could compete for a final spot, but the club would be in a better position if they brought in someone else. Lauer could be bumped to #6 and a long relief role if everyone is healthy, while the others could pitch in Triple-A. It would also make sense to sign someone beyond 2026, as Gausman and Bieber are slated for free agency a year from now, while Berríos will have an opt-out chance at that point as well.

A big strike on the position player side is also an option. Bringing back Bo Bichette is already known to be on the table. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported this week that Bichette is getting a lot of interest as a shortstop but also from clubs who need help at second and third base. Bichette’s shortstop defense has never been strong and he has dealt with numerous lower-body injuries in recent years. He finished 2025 playing second base for the Jays in the World Series, after missing several weeks due to a knee injury.

It’s unknown if Bichette will have strong preferences about his defensive home or if he just wants to secure the biggest payday. For the Jays, they probably prefer to keep Andrés Giménez at short since he’s a slick defender, but it’s unknown if they would be willing to put Bichette back at that spot in order to lure him back to Toronto.

There’s also a bit of smoke about a run at Kyle Tucker. Bob Nightengale of USA Today mentioned the possibility a few times in a column earlier this week. Both Bannon and Nicholson-Smith/Davidi column address the Tucker rumors but both suggest pitching is likely to be a bigger priority.

The Jays certainly could go after Tucker, even though he is likely to be quite expensive. MLBTR predicted he could land a $400MM guarantee over 11 years. As mentioned up top, the Jays have made strong runs at players above that stratosphere before and they gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500MM extension.

The current outfield mix includes Springer, Santander, Daulton Varsho, Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw, Joey Loperfido, Addison Barger and Davis Schneider. They don’t need Tucker in there but he would make the group stronger. Loperfido still has options while Barger and Schneider can play the infield. Springer, Varsho and Straw are all slated for free agency after 2026. Straw’s deal has club options for 2027 and 2028 but they might be a bit pricey for a bench outfielder like him. By 2027, it’s possible those three are gone with Santander moving into the designated hitter spot. It’s possible that guys like Yohendrick Pinango or RJ Schreck could come up and fill the void by then but Tucker would give the Jays more long-term certainty on the grass/turf.

At this stage of the offseason, there are still many paths available to the Jays. The report from Nicholson-Smith and Davidi characterizes them as involved everywhere but not desperate, so perhaps it’s not wise to expect their aggression to lead to a quick deal. They may slow-play things and look for opportunities to open up to them, depending on how the various markets develop.

An unknown factor is how much they will have to spend. RosterResource projects them for a $235MM payroll in 2026, which gives them more than $20MM of wiggle room relative to the $258MM payroll they had at the end of 2025. President Mark Shapiro has said that he doesn’t expect the payroll to go down next year. Around $20MM would not be enough to do everything mentioned here, but it’s possible the deep playoff run in 2025 will prompt the Jays to nudge the payroll up a bit.

Photo courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images

MLBTR Podcast: Surprising Option Decisions, Qualifying Offers, And Paul DePodesta

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio, Imagn Images

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