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Dodgers To Sign Kyle Tucker

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The two-time defending champions have done it again. The Dodgers are reportedly in agreement with Kyle Tucker on a four-year, $240MM contract. The deal includes $30MM in deferrals and will come with an approximate $57.1MM annual value for luxury tax purposes. Tucker, a client of Excel Sports Management, receives a $64MM signing bonus — all but $10MM of which is paid is upfront — and can opt out after the second or third seasons. The team has not officially announced the signing, pending a physical, and will need to create a 40-man roster spot once it’s official.

Tucker is the latest superstar addition to what was already MLB’s most feared offense. Tucker slots into a lineup that already included Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernández and Tommy Edman. He’ll join Hernández and Andy Pages as the primary outfielders, with Edman also capable of logging center field action when he’s not at second base.

Los Angeles has four outfield prospects who rank prominently near the top of their farm system rankings. They reportedly wanted to avoid locking in long-term commitments as a result. They’ve accomplished that with arguably the biggest annual value in the sport’s history. It’s a $60MM annual value on the surface.

Without adjusting for deferrals, Tucker’s deal would be the second-highest AAV ever. Ohtani technically landed a $70MM AAV on his 10-year, $700MM guarantee, though the massive deferrals involved meant it had a “true” annual value closer to $46MM. One should therefore view the $51MM annual salary on Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765M deal as the more accurate record holder until tonight. Tucker’s adjusted AAV beats that by more than $6MM.

Although Tucker was this offseason’s top free agent, he’s a clear step below the likes of Aaron Judge, Ohtani and Soto of the previous three winters. Tucker has been a consistent All-Star caliber player who’s a little outside the top tier of players in MLB. The fifth overall pick by the Astros in 2015, Tucker broke out in the shortened 2020 season after logging limited big league action in the two preceding years. He connected on 29 or 30 home runs in each of his first three full MLB campaigns, improving his offensive approach along the way.

Tucker was already a great hitter and seemed to be on his way to pulling closer to Judge, Soto and Ohtani with a monster start to the 2024 season. Tucker was out to a .266/.395/.584 slash with more walks than strikeouts through the first two months. He fouled a ball off his right leg and was placed on the injured list with what the Astros initially termed a shin contusion. It turned out to be much more serious, as subsequent testing revealed a fracture that kept him out of action for three months.

The four-time All-Star returned no worse for wear and had a fantastic September. The Astros nevertheless decided to field trade calls after the season. They were never going to meet Tucker’s asking price on an extension and felt they could cash him in for help elsewhere on the roster. They lined up a deal with the Cubs around the Winter Meetings that sent Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and prospect Cam Smith to Houston for Tucker’s final year of arbitration.

Tucker’s lone season in Chicago had its ups and downs. He got out to another blistering start, running a .284/.359/.524 slash with 12 homers through the first day of June. Tucker jammed his right thumb diving into second base on a stolen base attempt that day. He avoided the injured list, but subsequent testing revealed that he sustained a tiny fracture at the top of his hand between his ring finger and pinky.

The hand injury wasn’t viewed as a serious issue until Tucker’s performance began to suffer. That didn’t occur right away. His next few weeks were the finest of the season, in fact. Tucker slashed .311/.404/.578 across 25 games that month. Things went off the rails in July, as he batted .189/.325/.235 with just one home run over the next six weeks.

The existence of the hairline fracture wasn’t reported until the middle of August. Cubs officials acknowledged that Tucker had been injured in June but said  that he was fully healthy by the time the injury was revealed publicly. Maybe the thumb became a retroactive explanation for what was actually a simple slump, though it’s possible he developed some subtle bad habits in June as he tried to mitigate the pain of hitting through the break. Manager Craig Counsell gave Tucker a three-game mental reset towards the end of August before plugging him back into the middle of the order.

Tuker appeared to be getting back into a groove when he hit another speed bump. He strained his left calf in early September and landed on the injured list, costing him three weeks in the season’s final month. He finished the regular season with a .266/.377/.464 slash line in a little under 600 trips to the plate. He hit .259 with one homer in eight postseason games as the Cubs advanced to the NL Division Series.

The uneven second half soured some Cubs fans on the Tucker acquisition. His overall numbers were in line with his career marks. Tucker’s offense was 36 percentage points better than league average by wRC+. His lifetime .273/.358/.507 batting line is 38 points above par. Tucker has been in that range in four of the past five seasons. The only exception is his .289/.408/.585 showing over 78 games two years ago.

The ’24 season is probably an outlier, but the Dodgers should feel they’re adding one of the top 10-15 hitters in MLB. He doesn’t expand the strike zone and has a rare blend of plus contact skills and above-average power. Tucker has no issue hitting pitchers of either handedness. He doesn’t have the huge exit velocities of the sport’s premier sluggers, yet he’s a safe bet for 25-30 homers in a healthy season.

Tucker’s glove isn’t as strong at this stage of his career. He won a Gold Glove with Houston in 2022. His defensive grades and sprint speed have declined as he’s gotten into his late-20s. That presumably gave teams pause when considering a long-term investment. That’s especially true of a Dodgers team that wouldn’t be able to move him to designated hitter at any point over an eight-year deal. Tucker’s defense should remain serviceable in the short term. The Dodgers can comfortably plug him into right field and kick Hernández over to left if they don’t trade him.

The Cubs issued Tucker a qualifying offer but made little effort to retain him. The bidding seemingly came down to the Dodgers, Mets and Blue Jays. New York was similarly hesitant to make a long-term commitment, as they reportedly offered a four-year deal at $55MM per season. Toronto was seemingly willing to entertain a longer term at a lower annual value.

Tucker is L.A.’s second qualified free agent signing of the offseason. They added Edwin Díaz on a three-year, $69MM deal around the Winter Meetings. They surrendered their second- and fifth-round draft choices this summer, plus $1MM from their 2027 international bonus pool, to sign Díaz. They’ll forfeit their third- and sixth-round picks for Tucker. The Cubs receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round (currently slated to land 77th overall).

MLBTR had predicted an 11-year, $400MM deal for Tucker at the beginning of the offseason. It’s unclear if any team would have been willing to go to those lengths. He’s giving up some measure of long-term security in exchange for massive salaries over the next couple seasons and the chance to return to free agency at the tail end of his prime.

He’ll have the option of retesting the market before his age-31 and age-32 campaigns — and without being attached to draft compensation barring a change to the qualifying offer rules in the intervening CBA. A five- or six-year guarantee could be well within range at that point. He’ll collect a huge signing bonus, essentially shatter the record for average annual value, and join the team with the best chance to win the World Series in the interim.

While the specific salary breakdown hasn’t been reported, the Dodgers are reportedly paying $54MM of the signing bonus right away. RosterResource estimates their cash payroll obligations close to $428MM for the upcoming season. Tucker’s $57.1MM AAV will push their competitive balance tax projection north of $395MM.

They’re taxed at a 110% rate on spending above $304MM, so Tucker’s deal comes with a staggering $62.81MM tax hit in the first season. The Dodgers are essentially valuing Tucker’s 2026 season alone at $120MM after taxes. L.A. ended last season with a luxury tax payroll of $417MM, costing them another $169.4MM in taxes. Their tax bill alone was higher than the final payroll calculations of 12 teams. They’re trending towards a similar or potentially even greater amount in 2026 depending on what else they do this offseason and at the trade deadline. The aggressiveness continues as they aim for the first three-peat in MLB since the 1998-2000 Yankees.

Tucker’s deal is going to be the latest example for many fans and smaller-market owners that’ll argue for a salary cap in the upcoming round of collective bargaining negotiations. This level of spending also reaffirms why the MLB Players Association has steadfastly maintained that a cap is a non-starter. Next offseason’s CBA talks are expected to be similarly or even more contentious than those that froze the sport for 99 days during the 2022-23 lockout.

That’s not the concern of the Dodgers or the fans, who’ll be thrilled to add another star as they try to cement their dynastic run in 2026. They’ll be heavy favorites in the NL West, and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which this team doesn’t make the playoffs. A championship is far from guaranteed, however. The Jays were one swing away from beating them in Games 6 and 7 of last year’s World Series. An extra quarter-second on Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s dash home or another few feet on Ernie Clement’s fly ball in the bottom of the ninth would have flipped the outcome. L.A. ownership and the front office aren’t getting complacent.

After missing on Tucker, the Jays seem likely to reengage with Bo Bichette. Their longtime shortstop is now the top unsigned player. He has reportedly had a productive meeting with the Phillies, but the Jays and Bichette have long expressed mutual interest in a reunion. Bichette wouldn’t be a great fit for the Mets, but they could conceivably pivot to challenging the Yankees for Cody Bellinger. The Mets still don’t have a left fielder after swapping Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien. Their reported offer to Tucker demonstrates that there’s plenty of room for short-term spending, but president of baseball operations David Stearns has shied away from lengthy commitments this winter.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Tucker was signing with the Dodgers. Jon Heyman of the New York Post had it as a short-term contract, while Robert Murray of FanSided was first on the four-year, $240MM guarantee. Murray reported the opt-out after the second season, and Passan had the third-year out. Heyman reported the $30MM in deferrals. Ari Alexander of Boston 7 News was first on the $57.1MM post-deferral AAV. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers had the signing bonus details.

Image courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images.

Latest On Mets’, Blue Jays’ Pursuit Of Kyle Tucker

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8:55am: ESPN’s Jeff Passan was a guest on Sportsnet in Toronto this morning and reported on air that the Blue Jays have been “the only team that has shown the willingness to go as deep as 10 years, potentially” (video link). Passan adds that a decision from Tucker could occur before the end of the week.

7:08am: The Mets have made a four-year offer to star outfielder Kyle Tucker, according to a report from Mike Puma of the New York Post. MLBNetwork Radio’s Jim Duquette suggested yesterday that the Mets were “likely” to extend their offer to four years yesterday. Tyler Ward reported as early as yesterday morning (prior to Duquette’s report) that the Mets had offered $200MM over four years.

Tucker, 29 this weekend, has had an unusually quiet market by the standards set by other recent top free agents like Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, and Aaron Judge, each of whom signed in December. Things have begun to ramp up in a big way this past week, however, and all signs have pointed towards a trio of teams emerging as the most likely landing spots for the multi-time All-Star: the Mets, the Blue Jays, and the Dodgers. Previous reporting has indicated that the Blue Jays have a long-term deal on the table for Tucker, while the Mets have preferred a shorter-term arrangement at a premium average annual value. Concrete reporting regarding the Dodgers’ pursuit of Tucker has been minimal, but previous comments by the front office throughout the winter have suggested a hesitance towards adding another long-term deal to their aging roster and blocking elite top outfield prospects like Zyhir Hope and Josue De Paula long-term.

Reporting on the Mets’ offers to Tucker has varied throughout the week. Initial reports suggested the club had made a three-year offer to Tucker within the $120MM to $140MM range, and later reporting indicated that the Mets had offered a $50MM AAV without a specific number of years attached to that report. This latest report of a four-year offer also comes without a specific AAV attached to it. That leaves open the possibility that New York has multiple offers on the table for Tucker, with varying annual salaries and contract structures that all fall under the more general umbrella of short-term with relatively high annual salaries. Of course, it’s also possible that the Mets have simply raised their offer over the past few days.

If owner Steve Cohen and his front office have offered Tucker $200MM or more over the next four seasons, that would surely be a difficult package to turn down without an incredible long-term offer. Tucker would be in line to re-enter free agency ahead of his age-33 season, and while he’d likely need to settle for another shorter-term contract headed into his mid-thirties it’s worth remembering that Kyle Schwarber landed a five-year, $150MM contract with the Phillies as a DH-only slugger headed into his own age-33 season earlier this winter. In that context, it’s not difficult to imagine Tucker earning $350MM or more over the remainder of his playing career if he were to complete a four-year deal at a $50MM AAV and sign another contract or two afterwards. It’s also possible (and perhaps even likely) that a shorter-term arrangement would come with at least one opt-out opportunity somewhere in the deal that would make it even easier for Tucker to return to free agency in search of a more lucrative offer.

On the other hand, it’s not hard to argue that Tucker is worth the exact sort of incredible long-term offer that would be worth passing on $200MM over four years in favor of. An All-Star in four consecutive seasons, Tucker finished fifth in AL MVP voting back in 2023 and since then has posted 9.2 bWAR and 8.7 fWAR in just 214 games with a .274/.388/.507 (152 wRC+) slash line to show for it. A tough second half with the Cubs last year and injuries that have limited him to that relatively light volume of games over the past two years have seemingly caused some level of concern among interested clubs, but the upside of adding a perennial MVP candidate to the middle of the lineup in his prime years is undeniable.

MLBTR’s own prediction for Tucker’s contract at the outset of the offseason was an 11-year, $400MM pact. That sort of contract would be a no-brainer to choose over a shorter-term deal, even at a $50MM AAV. How far below that figure a long-term offer could come in before Tucker would start to more seriously consider a short-term, high-AAV pact would surely depend on Tucker’s own personal tolerance for risk and desire for stability. It would certainly be bold to eschew something even in the range of the $330MM deal Bryce Harper landed in Philadelphia during the 2018-19 offseason, but a fair counterargument to that would be that Harper himself well might have come out ahead financially had he instead signed the reported short-term, $45MM AAV offer he received from the Dodgers that winter and returned to the market in a few years’ time.

Wherever Tucker will ultimately land, and whatever contract structure he will ultimately settle on, it’s increasingly likely his free agency is hurtling towards a conclusion in the coming days. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reported earlier this morning that a decision from Tucker’s camp could come as soon as today, and given the frenzy of reporting over the past few days it seems likely that the parties involved are all in the process of making their top offers as Tucker nears a decision.

Blue Jays Sign Rafael Lantigua To Minor League Deal

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The Blue Jays brought infielder Rafael Lantigua back to the organization on a minor league contract, the team announced. Toronto also added infielder Carlos Mendoza and confirmed previously reported agreements with Jorge Alcala, Eloy Jiménez and Michael Plassmeyer. All five players receive non-roster invitations to big league camp.

Lantigua, 27, initially signed with the Jays out of the Dominican Republic during the 2016 amateur signing period. The righty-hitting utilityman played his way to Triple-A by the end of the 2022 season. He spent the next two full seasons with their top affiliate in Buffalo before qualifying for minor league free agency. Lantigua signed with the Phillies last winter and again played the majority of the year in the International League.

The 5’7″ infielder batted .230/.356/.330 across 495 plate appearances for Philly’s farm team. Lantigua walked at a 15.6% clip while only striking out 14.7% of the time. While that propped up his on-base percentage, he did very little damage on contact. He hit seven homers and had a .260 average on balls in play. There was probably some poor luck in the latter number, as his BABIP in the previous two seasons was much higher, but he did himself no favors by only making hard contact on a quarter of batted balls.

Lantigua received his first major league call in September thanks to an injury to Edmundo Sosa. The Phils optioned him three days later without getting him into a game. They outrighted him from the roster at the beginning of the offseason. Lantigua has reached the majors but hasn’t gotten an opportunity to debut, which he’ll hope will arise with his original organization at some point in 2026.

Mendoza is also a smaller infielder whose game is built around getting on base. He’s a lefty bat who hit .287/.394/.409 with more walks than strikeouts in the Detroit system last year. The Miami native spent the majority of the season in Double-A. He can play second or third base but has no shortstop experience. Mendoza didn’t crack Detroit’s 40-man roster before qualifying for free agency at the end of his seventh season in the minors.

Rodolfo Castro To Sign With NPB’s Nippon-Ham Fighters

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The Blue Jays released infielder Rodolfo Castro from his minor league contract, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction tracker. Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports that Castro is pursuing an opportunity with the Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan.

Castro had just signed with Toronto a couple months ago. Rather than try to earn his way into a crowded infield picture as a non-roster invitee, he’ll collect a guaranteed salary and head to Asia for the first time in his career. Castro has played parts of four seasons in the big leagues. The majority of that has come with the Pirates, who traded him to Philadelphia at the 2023 deadline. He made just 14 appearances for the Phils down the stretch and has not played in the leagues within the past two years.

The righty-hitting infielder was in Triple-A when he suffered a season-ending thumb injury in 2024. Philadelphia dropped him from the 40-man roster that offseason. Castro played the entire ’25 season with their top affiliate in Lehigh Valley. He hit .235/.324/.421 with 19 homers and 18 stolen bases. Castro qualified for minor league free agency and would likely have been at Triple-A Buffalo had he not gotten the NPB opportunity.

Mets Reportedly Offer Kyle Tucker Short-Term Deal With $50MM AAV; Jays Have Made Long-Term Offer

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5:15pm: The Jays have made Tucker a long-term offer, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN, though no details on that offer have been reported.

1:35pm: The Mets have made Tucker an offer with a $50MM AAV, per reports from John Mincone as well as Robert Murray of FanSided.

11:37am: The top free agent of the offseason is still unsigned with about a month to go until pitchers and catchers report to spring training. Some recent reporting, including from Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio, has suggested the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Mets are the top suitors for Kyle Tucker at this point. All three have recently met with Tucker, either in person or over Zoom, per Duquette. Will Sammon of The Athletic reports today that the Mets are in the range of offering him $120MM to $140MM on a three-year deal. Sammon says the Mets could go higher and that Tucker could make his decision as soon as this week.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Tucker for a $400MM guarantee on an 11-year deal. That would be $36.36MM in terms of average annual value, paying him from his age-29 through age-39 seasons. That would be in line with other big deals for star-caliber position players.

In the past decade, eight position players have signed for nine years or longer: Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Manny Machado, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. Ohtani got a $70MM AAV but with significant deferrals, knocking the net present value closer to the $45MM range. Soto got $51MM and Judge $40MM. The others were in the $25-35MM range.

It’s unknown what the Blue Jays or Dodgers are willing to offer Tucker but he remains unsigned into mid-January, meaning he hasn’t yet received an offer compelling enough for him to have put pen to paper.

In recent years, it’s become a standard move for a free agent with an underwhelming market to pivot to a short-term pact with high AAVs and opt-outs. Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Pete Alonso have gone down this road in recent years. Everyone in that group apart from Alonso took a three-year deal. Bregman’s was technically for $40MM annually but with deferrals knocking the NPV to the $30MM range. Correa had a $35.1MM AAV, Bellinger $26.7MM and Chapman $18MM. Alonso’s two-year deal had a $27MM AAV.

The plan in that case is to bank a decent amount of money before taking another crack at free agency. The hope would be to then have more luck finding a long-term deal with a better platform season and no longer being tied to qualifying offer penalties. A player can only receive a qualifying offer once in his career. Tucker just rejected a QO from the Cubs and whoever signs him now will be subject to the associated penalties.

This doesn’t always work out but has in many cases. Chapman eventually signed a $151MM extension with the Giants just before returning to free agency. Correa was going to get a $325MM deal from the Giants. Concerns about his physical put the kibosh on that but he still got a $200MM guarantee from the Twins. This winter, Alonso got $155MM from the Orioles. Bregman just got $175MM from the Cubs, though with deferrals knocking the NPV to somewhere in the $150MM range.

There’s also appeal for the team. They have to pay a premium salary and usually forfeit a draft pick or two, and maybe some international bonus pool space as well, but they avoid a long-term commitment. Since players generally decline in productivity as they push through their 30s, it’s understandable for a team to look to avoid length.

Sammon doesn’t mention opt-outs in his piece on the Mets’ offer but that would presumably be a component. From Tucker’s perspective, he’s coming off a couple of seasons undercut by injuries but is still relatively young, going into his age-29 season. A three-year deal with no opt-outs would see him return to free agency ahead of his age-32 season, whereas opt-outs would allow him to try the market again quicker.

Whether he and his representatives have any appetite for that kind of path is unknown. It’s perhaps worth mentioning that the five aforementioned guys who took short-term deals were all Boras Corporation clients. He’s also gone down that road with pitchers such as Blake Snell, Carlos Rodón and Jordan Montgomery. Tucker is not a Boras guy, as he’s represented by Excel Sports Management.

Perhaps Tucker would consider a short-term pact but that also depends what the other offers are. It has been speculated that the Dodgers would also prefer a short-term deal. They could use an outfield upgrade but their roster is one of the older ones in the league and they have a batch of top outfield prospects. Those prospects don’t offer immediate help, as most of them have only recently reached the Double-A level or haven’t even hit that run at all. A short-term deal for Tucker could allow them to upgrade on the grass until those younger guys become more viable big leaguers.

It’s been speculated that the Jays would be more willing to go a long-term deal. They recently signed Kazuma Okamoto but it was reported a week ago that they are still aggressively pursuing Tucker even after landing Okamoto. Toronto has spent aggressively this winter after making it to the World Series in 2025. They gave a nine-figure deal to Dylan Cease, then eight-figure deals to Cody Ponce, Tyler Rogers and Okamoto. That has pushed their payroll to new heights but that could be a byproduct of their deep run last year.

They also have a lot of money coming off the books after 2026, as George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Yimi García, Daulton Varsho and Eric Lauer are impending free agents. Myles Straw would also depart if his club option is turned down and José Berríos can opt out of his deal. That could prompt the Jays to be doubly aggressive now, while they still have all of that talent on the roster.

Next winter doesn’t really have a Tucker-level talent and is also likely to be disrupted by the lockout. If Tucker were to sign a short-term deal, he could again be the top free agent a year from now but would also throw himself into the lockout winter. A long-term pact would keep him away from whatever disruptions are coming a year from now.

For the Mets, they seemingly prefer to avoid long-term pacts at the moment. Since David Stearns has become president of baseball operations, they made an exception for the 26-year-old Soto but have otherwise not signed any deal longer than three years.

They certainly need help in the outfield though. They traded Brandon Nimmo to the Rangers for Marcus Semien. They currently have Soto in one corner and Tyrone Taylor in center. Prospect Carson Benge could seize an Opening Day job but he can play center. If Tucker were brought in to take one corner with Soto in the other, Benge and Taylor could have a spring battle for the center field gig. If Taylor were to win, Benge could get more Triple-A reps. If Benge were to win, Taylor could become a fourth outfielder.

Financially, there’s no real limit to what they could do. Owner Steve Cohen has shown himself willing to run the Mets up to having the top payroll in the league. They’ve had a fairly modest offseason, defined more by subtraction than addition. They sent out Nimmo and Jeff McNeil while also letting Alonso and Edwin Díaz sign elsewhere.

RosterResource projects them for a payroll of $295MM and a competitive balance tax number of $296MM. Those are big figures but the Mets finished 2025 at $340MM and $337MM in those categories, respectively. Paying Tucker something between $40MM and $47MM annually would get them right back around to last year’s range.

It would also presumably do a lot to quell the fan base, who are currently not thrilled by the familiar faces who have departed in the past few months. It would also prevent them from adding another big salary to the long-term books, as they are already set to pay Soto and Francisco Lindor huge annual sums through 2039 and 2031 respectively.

Photo courtesy of David Banks, Imagn Images

Yankees Have Shown Interest In Nico Hoerner, Luis Robert Jr.

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At the start of the offseason, it felt inevitable that the Yankees and Cody Bellinger would reunite. That may still happen but it seems up in the air at the moment. Talks between the two sides have seemingly stalled out. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports today that both sides have been exploring alternatives lately. Bellinger has interest from other clubs. Meanwhile, the Yankees have been touching base with free agents Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker, who they have been connected to previously. They’ve also checked in on trade candidates Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox and Nico Hoerner of the Cubs. The Yanks’ interest in Hoerner was first reported by Pat Ragazzo of SI.

Bellinger spent 2025 in the Bronx and it seemed to go well. He hit 29 home runs and slashed .27/.334/.480 for a wRC+ 125. He stole 13 bases and played all three outfield slots as well as first base. He appeared to be especially comfortable in Yankee Stadium, slashing .302/.365/.544 there. He opted out of the final season of his contract, taking a $5MM buyout and leaving a $25MM salary on the table. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Bellinger to have enough juice for a five-year, $140MM deal.

It was reported on New Year’s Day that the Yanks had made an offer to Bellinger. A few days later came reports of a second offer. No details of either offer were initially revealed but further reporting indicated the sides weren’t close to a deal. Subsequent reporting has put the Yankee offer at five years and over $30MM annually, putting the guarantee somewhere in the vicinity of $155MM. That hasn’t been enough to get a deal done with Bellinger hoping to get to seven years.

It seems the two sides have taken a break from the staredown to look elsewhere. Heyman says they continued talking over the weekend but each party is considering alternatives. Heyman mentions the Dodgers, Giants and Mets as clubs believed to have interest in Bellinger. Those clubs have all been tied to Bellinger via rumors earlier this winter but are imperfect fits. All three could use outfield help to varying degrees but they also appear to be trying to avoid long-term commitments at the moment.

Since the hold-up between the Yankees and Bellinger appears to be the length of their offer, it’s hard to envision any of these clubs outbidding the Yankees. Any of the three could perhaps change their stance to take advantage of this opportunity but it also could be more likely that those clubs would prefer to get Bellinger via another short-term, opt-out laden deal. It’s unclear if he would want to do that after going down that road a couple of years ago, but it presumably depends on where things go in the next few weeks.

The Blue Jays have also been connected to Bellinger this winter but it seems they are more focused on Bichette and Tucker with Bellinger perhaps a backup plan. The Cubs were also connected to their old friend Bellinger this winter but signing Alex Bregman is presumably their big splash of the winter.

For the Yankees, they could perhaps increase their offer but are also seeing what else is on the menu. With Hoerner, it’s unclear if the Cubs have any interest in trading him but he has been in rumors and it’s arguable they should consider it. Hoerner is a good player but is a free agent after 2026. With the Cubs recently signing Bregman, their infield is now a bit cluttered. Putting Bregman at third bumps Matt Shaw to the bench.

If they wanted to, the Cubs could trade Hoerner and then move Shaw to second base. That would declutter things a bit and also should bring back something of note. Hoerner’s $12MM salary this year is very affordable considering his production. He doesn’t hit a ton of home runs but rarely strikes out, relying on his contact, speed and defense to provide value. It’s a combination that works, as FanGraphs has credited him with 3.9 wins above replacement or more in each of the past four years.

It could also give the Cubs a bit more breathing room in terms of the competitive balance tax. The Cubs went narrowly above the CBT in 2024 but have otherwise stayed under the line in each season from 2021 to the present.

RosterResource currently estimates them for a CBT number of just over $243MM, putting them less than a million from this year’s line. A team’s CBT number isn’t calculated until the end of the year, so in-season moves can move a club up or down. If the Cubs want to avoid the tax in 2026, creating some space now could be something they consider to give them more ability to make moves at the deadline.

For the Yankees, Hoerner wouldn’t help replace Bellinger in the outfield but he should make the team better. Though he has largely been a second baseman for the Cubs, he is considered good enough to be a shortstop. He has just been on the other side of the bag in deference to Dansby Swanson.

The Yanks have an uncertain shortstop situation at present, hence their previous connection to Bichette. Anthony Volpe is coming off a down year and may not be ready for Opening Day 2026 as he recovers from shoulder surgery. José Caballero currently projects as the top shortstop for the early season, though he has mostly been a utility guy in his career. If the Yanks add a shortstop, then he could return to that role.

The thinking with signing Bichette had a couple of attractions. He could upgrade the shortstop position now, then second base in the future. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is currently the club’s second baseman but he is slated for free agency after the upcoming season. With the Yanks having shortstop prospect George Lombard Jr. waiting in the wings, Bichette could cover short for a year and then slide to the other side of the bag with either Lombard or a resurgent Volpe at short.

Hoener wouldn’t be quite the same acquisition, barring an extension, as he is only signed through 2026. Still, that would likely have appeal for the Yankees in a different way. They could upgrade the middle infield for now without making a huge commitment. After 2026, depending on how things go with Lombard, Volpe, Hoerner and Chisholm, they could then decide about how to invest in the middle infield for the long term.

They would, however, have to give the Cubs something of value in return. As mentioned, it’s unclear if the Cubs have any interest at all in flipping Hoerner. Even if they do, they would presumably be looking for some kind of win-now upgrade, likely on the pitching staff. With the Yanks looking for pitching help themselves, it may be challenging to line up a deal that makes sense for both sides.

As for Robert, he is surely available but also tricky to value. He has shown borderline MVP upside but is coming off two years marred by injuries and underperformance. In 2023, he hit 38 home runs and stole 20 bases, slashed .264/.315/.542 and got strong grades for his center field defense. But since then, he has made a number of trips to the injured list while slashing .223/.288/.372 for a wRC+ of 84.

The White Sox are rebuilding and will surely trade Robert but are seemingly hoping to trade him at peak value. He wasn’t moved in 2025 even though it was the final guaranteed year of his contract. They picked up a $20MM option for 2026. Teams like the Yankees and others might want to buy low but the Sox are likely motivated to wait. After his down year, it would make sense to hold him until the deadline, with the hope of him getting back in form and therefore increasing his trade value.

The Yankee outfield currently projects to include Aaron Judge and Trent Grisham in two spots. If the season started today, Jasson Domínguez and Spencer Jones would battle for a third. Domínguez is coming off a rough year in 2025, with an average bat and poor defense. Jones hit 35 home runs in the minors last year but also struck out 35.4% of the time, creating some doubt about how viable his bat will be in the majors.

Acquiring Hoerner wouldn’t do much to change that picture but perhaps the Yanks would be more comfortable with the uncertainty of the Domínguez/Jones combo with a stronger infield. Bringing back Bellinger, signing Tucker or acquiring Robert would strengthen the outfield group, bumping Domínguez to more of a part-time role and keeping Jones in Triple-A.

There are many moving pieces here as the offseason moves into the final weeks before pitchers and catchers report to spring training. Tucker, Bichette and Bellinger are the top position players still out there, with a lot of overlapping interest. The Jays are seemingly in on all three, considered by some to be the favorites for Tucker but a Bichette reunion also makes sense. Like Bellinger, Bichette is considering other options. He is meeting with the Phillies today, although that is a bit complicated, as Philadelphia would seemingly have to move on from both J.T. Realmuto and Alec Bohm to fit Bichette onto the roster and into the budget. The Red Sox just missed on Bregman and could turn to Bichette but they don’t seem too keen on big long-term investments. The Dodgers, Giants and Mets may be looking to get opportunistic if a nice short-term opportunity becomes possible.

It’s a bit of a game of musical chairs with the Yankees and Bellinger some of the key participants. Bregman just found a seat in Chicago but others will have to sit soon. Pitchers and catchers report to spring training in about a month, so the music is slowing down.

Photo courtesy of Sergio Estrada, Imagn Images

Blue Jays Re-Sign Eloy Jimenez To Minor League Deal

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The Blue Jays have signed Eloy Jimenez to a minor league contract, according to reporter Mike Rodriguez.  Jimenez’s latest deal with the Jays includes an invitation to Toronto’s Major League spring camp.

After signing a minors deal with Toronto right at the end of August, Jimenez only got into six games with Triple-A Buffalo, and he had a .508 OPS over 21 trips to the plate.  This gave Jimenez an overall .247/.326/.347 slash line in 215 plate appearances in the Jays’ and Rays’ farm systems, without any games played at the Major League level.

Once a feared power bat who signed a six-year, $43MM deal with the White Sox before ever appearing in a big league game, Jimenez somewhat lived up to that potential by hitting .275/.324/.487 with 89 homers over 1777 PA during the 2019-23 seasons.  However, Jimenez was set back by a laundry list of injuries, and his 122 games played in 2019 remains his highest game total in a regulation-length season.  The 2024 season was a total calamity for Jimenez, as he hit .238/.289/.336 over 349 PA while missing time with an adductor strain and a hamstring strain.

The White Sox gave up on Jimenez by dealing him to the Orioles at the 2024 trade deadline, and Baltimore unsurprisingly declined a $16.5MM club option on the former slugger for the 2025 season.  Jimenez then landed in Tampa Bay last winter on a minors deal, but between more injury woes and his uninspiring numbers, the Rays released him last July.

Jimenez is still only 29 years old, and is still posting decent hard-hit ball numbers and exit velocities.  Considering his past history, there’s no risk for the Blue Jays in taking a more extended look at Jimenez in camp to see if a late-career turn-around is possible, even if it doesn’t seem likely Jimenez will be able to crack Toronto’s crowded roster.  His best-case scenario might be a big Spring Training performance, and then heading to another interested team via trade or an opt-out in his contract at the end of camp.

Nationals Claim Paxton Schultz

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The Nationals announced that they have claimed right-hander Paxton Schultz off waivers from the Blue Jays. The Jays designated the righty for assignment recently when they signed Kazuma Okamoto. The Nats opened a 40-man roster spot earlier today by releasing Sauryn Lao.

Schultz, 28, has a limited big league track record. He made his debut with the Jays in 2025, tossing 24 2/3 innings over 13 appearances. His 4.38 earned run average in that small sample wasn’t especially impressive but his 25.5% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate were both better than average. His .333 batting average on balls in play and 65.8% strand rate were both a bit to the unlucky side, which is why his 3.43 SIERA was more optimistic than his actual ERA. He averaged around 94 miles per hour with his four-seamer and sinker while also throwing a cutter, slider and changeup.

He also served a multi-inning role on the farm with fairly comparable results. He logged 49 frames over 25 Triple-A appearances last year with a 3.31 ERA. He struck out 23.6% of batters faced at that level with an 8.7% walk rate.

The Nats had the worst bullpen in the majors last year. Their relief corps had a collective 5.59 ERA for the season, last in the majors by a decent amount. The Rockies, who play in the hitters’ haven of Coors Field, were second-worst with a 5.18 ERA. Washington’s group is arguably even weaker now, as they traded Kyle Finnegan, Luis García and Andrew Chafin at the deadline and Jose A. Ferrer this offseason.

Schultz gives them a fresh arm coming off a decent season. He still has a couple of options remaining, meaning he can be sent to Triple-A and back fairly regularly. He also has less than a year of big league service time, meaning he’s still years away from arbitration and even further from free agency.

Photo courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images

18 Players Exchange Filing Figures

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Teams and arbitration-eligible players had until 7:00 pm Central to agree to terms or exchange filing figures. The vast majority agreed to salaries, either this afternoon or before November’s non-tender deadline to ensure they were offered contracts at all.

There were 18 cases where team and player did not align — none bigger than the record $13MM gap between the Tigers and Tarik Skubal. Nothing formally prevents players and teams from continuing negotiations. However, virtually every team takes a “file-and-trial” approach to the process. Clubs will mostly refuse to continue talks about one-year deals after this date. They’ll often make exceptions for discussions involving multi-year contracts or one-year deals with a club/mutual option. It’s unlikely that all of these players will end up getting to a hearing, but the majority probably will.

If the sides go to a hearing, a three-person arbitration panel will either choose the player’s or the team’s filing figure. (Hearings will run between January 26 and February 13.) The arbitrators cannot pick a midpoint. That’s designed to prevent the parties from anchoring by filing at extremely high or low figures. Teams’ preferences for the file-and-trial approach follows a similar logic. The idea is to deter players from submitting a higher number from which they could continue to negotiate until the hearing begins.

Unless otherwise noted, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported all filing figures for those who didn’t reach agreements. The list of players who could go to a hearing this winter (service time in parentheses):

Angels

  • Reid Detmers (3.159): Filed at $2.925MM, team filed at $2.625MM

Astros

  • Isaac Paredes (4.160): Filed at $9.95MM, team filed at $8.75MM
  • Yainer Diaz (3.035): Filed at $4.5MM, team filed at $3MM

Blue Jays

  • Eric Lauer (5.091): Filed at $5.75MM, team filed at $4.4MM (first reported by Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet)

Braves

  • Dylan Lee (3.150): Filed at $2.2MM, team filed at $2MM

Brewers

Marlins

Mariners

  • Bryce Miller (2.153): Filed at $2.625MM, team filed at $2.25MM

Nationals

Orioles

  • Keegan Akin (5.083): Filed at $3.375MM, team filed at $2.975MM
  • Kyle Bradish (3.160): Filed at $3.55MM, team filed at $2.875MM

Rays

  • Edwin Uceta (2.150): Filed at $1.525MM, team filed at $1.2MM

Reds

Royals

Tigers

Twins

  • Joe Ryan (4.033): Filed at $6.35MM, team filed at $5.85MM

Blue Jays, Daulton Varsho Avoid Arbitration

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The Blue Jays and outfielder Daulton Varsho have avoided arbitration, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post. Varsho will make $10.75MM this year in his final season of club control. He’s a free agent next winter. That tops the $9.7MM figure projected by the algorithm of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz by a margin of just under 11%. Varsho is repped by ISE Baseball.

The 29-year-old Varsho came to Toronto in the 2022-23 offseason via a trade sending then-top prospect Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. back to Arizona. A converted catcher, Varsho has been a premier defensive center fielder from the jump and has seen his offense improve on a year-over-year basis in Toronto. After a rough start in ’23 (.220/.285/.389), Varsho hit .214/.293/.407 in 2024.

It was the 2025 season, however, where his bat truly took off. Recovery from offseason surgery delayed his season debut until late April, and he missed nearly two months of the summer due to a hamstring strain. But despite being limited to only 71 games and 271 plate appearances, Varsho belted 20 home runs while batting .238/.284/.548. He chipped in 13 doubles and a pair of triples, and his glovework in center field remained elite. Varsho went on to pop three more round-trippers in 81 postseason plate appearances.

Varsho’s agreement pushes the Blue Jays to a payroll of about $281MM, per RosterResource. Their $309MM worth of luxury tax obligations put them into the top tier of penalization, though Toronto is still reportedly in pursuit of further free agents — including incumbent infielder Bo Bichette and top free agent Kyle Tucker. The Jays will pay a 110% tax on any subsequent additions to the payroll due to that $309MM figure, but franchise-record levels of spending don’t appear to be a deterrent on the heels of Toronto’s run to Game 7 of the World Series in 2025.

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