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Latest On Blue Jays, George Springer

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George Springer is one of the most prominent of the many free agents the Blue Jays are reportedly exploring this offseason, though the Jays’ initial interest in Springer seems to be developing.  According to Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi, the Jays have “progressed beyond just talking” with Springer, which would seem to indicate that Toronto has issued at least one offer to the former World Series MVP.

Such a step doesn’t necessarily indicate that a deal could be close, or even that Springer is the Blue Jays’ top free agent target.  However, the Jays already made one early signing in bringing Robbie Ray back to the club on a one-year contract, and the wide net Toronto is seemingly casting over so many free agents could indicate that the Blue Jays are looking to strike while many other teams are still figuring out their payrolls or (along those same lines) planning to wait to make moves later in the offseason in order to find bargains.  Davidi opines that the Jays first seem to be looking at position players in order to “nail down their lineup adds, figure out what’s staying, and then trade to get pitching help.”

From Springer’s perspective, there are pros and cons to signing early (with the Jays or any other team).  Signing a deal now would allow him to avoid any prolonged uncertainty on the open market and allow him to entirely focus on the 2021 season with his new team.  If the Blue Jays are one of relatively few teams who reportedly have money to spend this winter, signing would ensure that Springer can get top dollar rather than see Toronto spend its payroll on other players and then leaving Springer short a major suitor.

On the other hand, while the expected free agent crunch should impact players in the middle and lower tiers of the market, Springer and the other top-tier free agent names can safely assume they’ll still find an appropriately big payday.  MLBTR ranked Springer third on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents and projected a hefty five-year, $125MM deal for the outfielder, even as he enters his age-31 season.  As such, Springer faces no real rush to sign immediately since he knows a big contract awaits somewhere.

Springer might also want to wait for his market to fully reveal itself, once more teams do get their budgets finalized and more offers emerge.  For instance, the Mets don’t seem to be fully diving into offseason moves until they figure out their front office situation, and loom as a potential bidder for just about anyone.  “While the Blue Jays may be willing to set the market, agents will probably want to wait for the Mets to drop the gauntlet,” Davidi writes.

Blue Jays Planning For New Stadium?

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TODAY: In response to the Globe & Mail’s story, Rogers Communications spokesperson Andrew Garas released a statement to media: “Prior to the pandemic, we were exploring options for the stadium but through this year our primary focus has been keeping our customers connected and keeping our employees safe, so there is no update on the Rogers Centre to share at this time.”

Andrew Tumilty, a spokesperson for Waterfront Toronto, also told The Canadian Press that Willis’ piece “was the first Waterfront Toronto has heard of the Quayside site as a potential new home for the Blue Jays,” in reference to the team’s apparent Plan B if building a new ballpark on the current Rogers Centre site isn’t feasible.

NOVEMBER 27: Rogers Centre has been the Blue Jays’ home stadium since 1989, but that might not be the case for much longer. Blue Jays ownership is hoping to knock down Rogers Centre and put up a new multibillion-dollar facility in its place, Andrew Willis of the Globe and Mail reports.

As you’d expect with such a grand plan, there are potential roadblocks in the way. For one, Rogers Communications Inc. – which owns the Blue Jays – does not own the land on which the ballpark sits. That belongs to Canada Lands Company. Secondly, the Blue Jays would need the Canadian federal government to sign off in order to move forward with this project, which Willis writes could take five to eight years to complete if approved. Jays ownership, government officials and the real estate arm of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. plan to go public with the project in 2021, though, according to Willis. Those two companies would fund the stadium, whereas Rogers Centre was built largely on taxpayer money.

A replacement stadium for the Blue Jays would occupy some of the same land as the Rogers Centre. The rest would be dedicated to “residential towers, office buildings, stores and public space” as part of a redevelopment plan for Toronto, per Willis. If that plan collapses, though, the Blue Jays could seek a new lakefront stadium instead. Any new facility would feature natural grass, not the artificial turf the Blue Jays play on now, though it’s unclear whether it would include a retractable roof – the most recognizable aspect of Rogers Centre.

In the event the proposal to build a new stadium on the Rogers Centre site succeeds, it’s unclear where the Blue Jays would play their home games in the interim. Nearby Buffalo, N.Y., hosted the Blue Jays in 2020 because of travel restrictions stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, but there is no word on whether that will continue if the club has to wait for a new ballpark.

Garrett Richards On Blue Jays’ Radar

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The Blue Jays have expressed preliminary interest in Garrett Richards, per Ben Nicholson-Smith with Arden Zwelling on sportsnet.ca’s Blue Jays’ podcast. That’s not a head-spinning development, as Toronto is largely expected to kick the tires on most of the top names in the free agent pool. Still, “preliminary interest” means slightly more given the Blue Jays’ status as one of the more eager buyers on the market.

The Jays are known to have made a three-year, $40MM offer to Kevin Gausman, according to the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. In terms of their process for free agents like Gausman with qualifying offers attached (J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Bauer), the Jays have a fairly specified process, per the same podcast as above. They take the dollar number that they’ve assigned to the draft pick they’d lose by signing a given free agent, and subtract that number from the offer made to the player. In a vacuum, that makes sense.

Predictive player evaluation models, of course, assume a range of potential outcomes, making for a murkier process than the one described above. To take any valuation of a player as gospel is unrealistic. Furthermore, putting the onus of the lost draft pick on the player largely neglects the competitive aspect of free agency. The only players Toronto could ever expect to sign would be ones they rate higher than the market norms (or those that could be convinced with supplemental appeals, such as culture, the tax situation in Canada, or the quality of the roster).

Granted, in a literal sense, that is exactly the free agent process – winning a free agent bid means signing those players for whom the Jays are willing to pay more than everybody else. That doesn’t just happen when the Jays find value in a player that nobody else can see – such as might be the case with the mythical “diamond in the rough” a la Max Muncy or Justin Turner signing with the Dodgers. In practice, most players have explicit appeal that multiple teams all see at once. This is why the dollar value of a player in free agency is by necessity a dynamic thing. In effect, it’s hard to know where exactly Toronto’s dollar value began with Gausman, only roughly where it maxed out.

Still, the greater point here probably comes from simply knowing Toronto’s thinking. As noted on the podcast, many conversations happen during the courtship process and only some actually end in contract offers. Though Richards comes from a different pool of free agents than Gausman – meaning free agents unburdened by a qualifying offer – there’s still no indication that Toronto has moved beyond those initial meet-and-greet level of courtship with Richards.

After missing out on Gausman, however, the Jays are clear about their desire to acquire someone else to fill out their rotation. Richards fits the profile. The former Angel isn’t at the tippy-top of the pitching market, but he did land 24th on MLBTR’s list of top-50 free agents. The 32-year-old posted a 4.03 ERA/4.28 FIP across 51 1/3 innings with San Diego last season, presumably showing enough in his full-speed return from Tommy John to prove that he’s back to full strength. For the Jays, that’s likely to put him up near the top for starters in their price range, speculatively speaking.

Blue Jays Interested In Brad Hand

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The Blue Jays’ long list of free agent targets has extended to the bullpen market, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that Toronto was recently in touch with left-hander Brad Hand.  The former All-Star entered free agency after the Indians declined their $10MM club option on Hand’s services.

Hand was placed on waivers by the Tribe prior to that declined option, as Cleveland was looking to save paying Hand a $1MM buyout by exposing him to any team willing to make a claim.  All 29 teams (including Toronto) passed on Hand at the time, which is possibly indicative of how clubs are viewing spending on relief pitching this winter.  In an offseason where more or less every team will be dealing with payroll limitations, a $10MM average annual value even for an established star reliever like Hand could be a reach.

The Jays are thought to have more spending capacity than most teams this winter, however, which is part of the reason they have been so quick to explore so many of the top names available.  While they might not have been comfortable claiming Hand back in October, the Blue Jays would certainly seem to have a fit for Hand at the back of their bullpen.  With Ken Giles being out for much of the 2020 season, six different pitchers recorded saves for the Jays last year — Anthony Bass led the way with seven saves, but Bass is now a free agent himself.

Rafael Dolis and Jordan Romano represent a pair of intriguing in-house closer candidates, so as Morosi notes, signing an established closer like Hand may be more of a need than a want for Toronto.  That said, there is certainly value in being able to roll out multiple strong relievers, especially for a Jays team that has a few questions marks within its starting rotation.

Twins Sign Derek Law

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The Twins have agreed to a deal with Derek Law, the righty himself announced on Twitter. Details aren’t yet known, but it seems likely to be a minors pact with an invitation to Spring Training.

Law, 30, cracked the majors in 2016 and appeared in each of the ensuing three campaigns. That run came to an end in 2020, when he spent the year training with the Rangers as part of their 60-man player pool.

Though he found quite a lot of success in his debut season with the Giants, Law struggled to replicate it. He was entrusted with 58 appearances for the Blue Jays in 2019, but managed only a 4.90 ERA with 9.9 K/9 and 5.9 BB/9 over 60 2/3 innings of action.

Latest On Blue Jays’ Free Agent Targets

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2:24PM: Toronto also has interest in J.T. Realmuto, according to Sports Grid’s Craig Mish (Twitter link).  While the Jays have a fair amount of catching depth already on hand, Realmuto would obviously present a big upgrade over current starter Danny Jansen, backup Reese McGuire, and top prospect Alejandro Kirk.  If the Blue Jays did sign Realmuto, it’s fair to assume the Jays would shop at least one of their in-house catchers to other teams.

12:32PM: For the second straight offseason, the Blue Jays are checking in on a wide range of free agent options.  The club has already been linked to George Springer and DJ LeMahieu, and now The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) adds that Toronto has spoken with representatives for Michael Brantley and Justin Turner, and the Jays also made an offer to Kevin Gausman before Gausman accepted the Giants’ one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer.  Going beyond only established big leaguers, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the Jays have interest in Korean shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, noting that Toronto has “evaluated him closely.”

Beginning with the position players, Brantley, Turner, and Kim would each cost less than the likes of Springer or LeMahieu.  MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents had Brantley and Turner right next to each other in the No. 13 and 14 positions, projecting the two veterans for similar contracts — Brantley a two-year, $28MM pact and Turner for two years and $24MM.  Kim ranked seventh on the list due to his younger age (25), projected for a five-year, $40MM deal and another $7.625MM in a posting fee to the KBO League’s Kiwoom Heroes.

Brantley turned 34 in May and is seemingly less of a positional need for the Jays since he has exclusively played as a left fielder or DH over the last five seasons.  Toronto already has Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in left field and a Vladimir Guerrero Jr./Rowdy Tellez tandem penciled in for the first base and DH roles, so a Brantley signing would to hint that a trade could be in the offing.  Guerrero has been vocal about wanting to play third base again, so conceivably the Jays could find room for Brantley without a trade, but it doesn’t seem too likely that the team would install Guerrero as a full-time option at the hot corner.

Turner or Kim would be the easier positional fit since either could immediately slide into the Blue Jays’ open third base spot.  Turner just celebrated his 36th birthday yesterday and, like Brantley, continues to swing a powerful bat into his 30’s.  A return to Los Angeles is certainly possible, however, as Rosenthal writes that Turner “still appears to be [the Dodgers’ first choice” in terms of infield additions, though they perhaps couldn’t be ruled out as a potential suitor for LeMahieu.  While Turner’s positive coronavirus test during Game 6 of the World Series and subsequent post-game return to the field to celebrate with his Dodgers teammates adds an inescapably strange footnote to his career, Turner won’t face any league discipline for the breach of COVID-19 protocol.

Signing Kim would be perhaps the most intriguing move possible, as unlike Brantley or Turner, Kim would be seen as a long-term building block to a Toronto organization that is already stocked with young infield talent both on the MLB roster and in the farm system.  While Kim could play third base immediately, he is also a well-regarded defensive shortstop, so the Blue Jays could experiment with trying Kim at short and moving current shortstop Bo Bichette to second or third base (with Cavan Biggio playing the other position).

Adding Kim might also made it more feasible for the Jays to trade one of their top infield prospects, with Jordan Groshans, Miguel Hiraldo, or Orelvis Martinez probably more likely to be moved than 2020 fifth-overall pick Austin Martin.  Since Martin is also a multi-positional threat, the Jays might try to develop him as a center fielder if Kim is signed to bolster the infield picture.  The Blue Jays (and the 29 other MLB teams) will get their first chance to directly speak with Kim after his 30-day negotiating window opens on November 26.

While possibilities abound on the position player side, pitching is Toronto’s chief focus this winter, so it isn’t surprising that they made an early pitch for Gausman.  Rosenthal reports that the Jays offered Gausman a three-year deal worth roughly $40MM, though the right-hander instead opted for the one-year deal to remain in San Francisco.  Should Gausman deliver another good season in 2021 and then return to the free agent market next winter, he’ll surely receive offers beyond the two years and $21.1MM he left on the table to accept the Giants’ qualifying offer.

Blue Jays Interested In J.A. Happ

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The Angels and Rangers have already been linked to J.A. Happ’s free agent market, and now one of Happ’s former teams is getting in on the action.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (via Twitter) that the Blue Jays have some interest in bringing the left-hander back for his third stint with the team.  Happ would provide further veteran reinforcement to a rotation that has already retained another familiar southpaw in Robbie Ray, and Toronto could conceivably roll out an all-southpaw top three of Hyun Jin Ryu, Ray, and Happ in front of other starting candidates like Nate Pearson, Ross Stripling, and Tanner Roark.

Happ initially came to Toronto as part of a ten-player trade with the Astros in July 2012, back when Alex Anthopoulos was the Jays’ general manager.  After Happ was dealt to the Mariners in the 2014-15 offseason, he then came back to the Jays on a free agent contract in November 2015, spending the better part of three seasons in Toronto before again being dealt, this time to the Yankees prior to the 2018 trade deadline.  745 1/3 of Happ’s 1741 1/3 career innings have been thrown in a Blue Jays uniform, and Happ has a 3.88 ERA, 2.72 K/BB rate, and 8.3 K/9 as a Blue Jay.

Blue Jays Add 5 Players To 40-Man Roster

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The Blue Jays announced Friday that they’ve selected the contracts of catchers Riley Adams and Gabriel Moreno, right-hander Ty Tice, outfielder Josh Palacios and infielder Otto Lopez. All five are now protected from being selected in next month’s Rule 5 Draft. Toronto’s 40-man roster is now full.

Adams, 23, adds another catching option to a roster already well stocked at that position. He topped out with a solid Double-A showing in 2019 and ostensibly isn’t too far from MLB readiness. The 20-year-old Moreno, on the other hand, hasn’t played above A-ball, although he hit quite well there in ’19.

Tice, 25, logged a 2.34 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A in ’19 and racked up better than 11 K/9 but did so while walking nearly six per nine frames. Palacios plays all three outfield spots and is an OBP-over-power option who has seen some time in Double-A. Lopez, 22, hasn’t advanced beyond A-ball. He hit well there in 2019 and has experience at both middle infield spots and both corner outfield positions.

Latest On DJ LeMahieu

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Second baseman DJ LeMahieu was a godsend for the Yankees during the previous two seasons, but as a free agent, he could go elsewhere this offseason. Re-signing with the Yankees is LeMahieu’s preference, according to Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, but the 2020 American League batting champion wants to stay in the area. That could put a LeMahieu-Mets union in play, per Davidoff, though he reports that the Blue Jays are also in on him.

The Mets now have an unexpected opening at the keystone after starter Robinson Cano received a 162-game suspension Wednesday because of performance-enhancing drugs. Cano won’t earn a penny of his $24MM salary as a result, which will only make it easier for new, deep-pocketed Mets owner Steve Cohen to make splashes this winter. The Mets don’t necessarily have to throw money around at second, as they could simply use Jeff McNeil at the position and allocate their cash elsewhere, but LeMahieu does look like a more realistic option for the franchise than he did before Cano’s punishment came down.

The Yankees, for their part, aren’t going to let LeMahieu walk without a fight. They already gave LeMahieu a qualifying offer worth $18.9MM for 2021, but he made the no-brainer decision to reject it. They still want to keep him, however, according to Davidoff.

Regardless of whether LeMahieu stays with the Yankees, the team’s call to sign him for two years and $24MM before 2019 was a masterstroke, considering he was its best player over the prior two seasons. The 32-year-old former Cub and Rockie is now coming off a near-MVP season, which puts LeMahieu in position to clean up during this winter’s free-agent period. MLBTR pegs LeMahieu for a four-year, $68MM contract, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see him do even better than that on the open market.

Four Teams Showing Interest In Jake Odorizzi

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Despite an injury-shortened 2020 season, right-hander Jake Odorizzi is getting a lot of attention on the free agent market.  The Giants, Blue Jays, and Mets have all shown interest in Odorizzi, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required), and the Twins are also keen to re-sign their former All-Star.

Between a back strain, a blister on his throwing hand, and a chest contusion after being struck by an Alex Gordon line drive, Odorizzi ended up pitching only 13 2/3 innings for the Twins last season, and he didn’t see any action in Minnesota’s two games the wild card series.  Nonetheless, Odorizzi still ranked 11th on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, due to both the rather minor nature of those 2020 injuries and his overall solid track record.  Between 2014-19 with the Rays and Twins, Odorizzi averaged 165 innings per season with a 3.88 ERA, 8.7 K/9, and 2.79 K/BB rate.

This isn’t the first time Odorizzi has been linked to the Jays, and in fact Toronto was Odorizzi’s predicted landing spot on the MLBTR top 50.  The Blue Jays have already re-signed Robbie Ray and are known to still be looking for pitching to bolster a rotation that doesn’t offer much certainty beyond Hyun Jin Ryu.  San Francisco and New York are also looking to add arms this winter and have also made early pitching moves, both via the qualifying offer — Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman each accepted the one-year, $18.9MM deals to remain with their former teams.

Beyond their shared need of pitching, these are also three of the teams thought to have some extra spending capacity this winter.  The Giants don’t have much salary committed beyond 2021, the Jays have even lesser salary obligations and corporate ownership, and the Mets are expected to spend big (if not “like drunken sailors“) now that Steve Cohen has bought the team.  It wouldn’t be surprising if we hear of these three specific clubs checking in on more or less every available pitcher on the free agent and trade markets as the Giants, Jays, and Mets gauge how to best deploy their financial resources.

Minnesota doesn’t have quite as glaring a pitching need as the other three clubs, since the Twins have Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Randy Dobnak, and a full season of Michael Pineda lined up for their 2020 rotation.  Still, retaining Odorizzi would only further strengthen that depth as the Twins continue to look for the right roster mix to finally break their postseason losing streak.

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