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Minor MLB Transactions: 12/01/21

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Some recent minor moves from around baseball:

  • The Rockies have signed right-handed reliever J.D. Hammer to a minor league deal, according to Thomas Harding of MLB.com. In 23 2/3 innings at Triple-A this year in the Phillies’ organization, Hammer managed an ERA of 3.80 with a hefty 34.3% strikeout rate but also an elevated walk rate of 12.4%. At the big league level, he logged 20 innings with an ERA of 4.95, 23.4% strikeout rate and 11.7% walk rate. The Phils outrighted the 27-year-old at the end of the season and he elected free agency.
  • The Diamondbacks announced that they’ve returned infielder Jake Hager to the organization on a minor league deal. Hager started 2021 in the Mets organization and then was designated for assignment and claimed on waivers three times, bouncing to the Brewers, Mariners and Diamondbacks. Arizona then outrighted him in September. The 28-year-old didn’t hit much in the big leagues this year, but in a tiny sample of 30 plate appearances over 14 games. He played 82 Triple-A games in 2021 between those four organizations, hitting .240/.311/.461.
  • The Giants have agreed to a minor league deal with right-handed reliever Trevor Hildenberger, according to the MLB.com transactions tracker. Hildenberger logged 2 1/3 MLB innings for the Mets this year before being claimed and outrighted by the Giants. In 23 Triple-A innings for Sacramento River Cats, the 30-year-old put up an ERA of 4.70 with a strikeout rate of 22.5% and walk rate of 12.7%.
  • The Nationals have signed infielder Richard Urena to a minor league deal, per the MLB.com transactions tracker. The 25-year-old has played in 91 big league games in his career but hasn’t cracked the majors since 2019. In 2021, he played 92 Triple-A games in the Blue Jays’ system, hitting .272/.310/.438.
  • Outfielder Henry Ramos is joining the KT Wiz of the KBO, as relayed by Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net. The 29-year-old had an unbelievable Triple-A season in 2021, slashing .371/.439/.582 over 294 plate appearances. He was selected by the Diamondbacks in September and got into 18 games, hitting .200/.255/.300 over 55 plate appearances. He was outrighted by the DBacks in October.

Tender Deadline Signings: 11/30/21

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With the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming tonight at 8pm ET — the MLBPA and MLB jointly agreed to move the deadline up a couple days due to the looming expiration of the collective bargaining agreement — we’ll likely see a slew of arbitration-eligible players signing one-year deals.

It’s commonplace for a large batch of players to sign deals in the hours leading up to the tender deadline. “Pre-tender” deals of this nature often fall shy of projections due to the fact that teams use the looming threat of a non-tender to enhance their leverage. Arbitration contracts at this juncture are often take-it-or-leave-it propositions, with the “leave it” end of that arrangement resulting in the player being cut loose. Given the widely expected lockout, there could be more incentive than usual for borderline non-tender candidates to take those offers rather than being cast out into free agency just hours before a transaction freeze is implemented.

As a reminder, arbitration contracts are not fully guaranteed. In a typical year, a team can cut a player on an arb contract at any point before the halfway point in Spring Training and only be responsible for 30 days’ termination pay (about one-sixth of the contract). Releasing a player in the second half of Spring Training bumps the termination pay to 45 days of his prorated salary.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month, although for many of the players listed below, this isn’t so much avoiding arbitration as it is avoiding a non-tender. Here’s a look at today’s agreements…

  • The Yankees have agreed to deals with infielder Gio Urshela and right-hander Domingo German, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links). Urshela will make $6.55MM, while German has agreed to a $1.75MM deal. Urshela has two seasons of control remaining; German is controllable for three years. Urshela is coming off a .267/.301/.419 showing while playing third base and shortstop. German tossed 98 1/3 innings of 4.58 ERA ball.
  • The Twins have signed three arbitration-eligible pitchers, per reports from Feinsand and Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (on Twitter). Right-hander Jharel Cotton signed for $700K, reliever Caleb Thielbar lands $1.3MM and reliever Tyler Duffey signs for $3.8MM. Thielbar and Duffey were both productive members of the Minnesota relief corps in 2021. Cotton was recently claimed off waivers from the Rangers.
  • The Giants have agreed to terms with outfielder Austin Slater on a $1.85MM deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). The 28-year-old (29 next month) appeared at all three spots on the grass while hitting .241/.320/.423 over 306 plate appearances in 2021.
  • Reliever Emilio Pagan and the Padres have agreed on a $2.3MM deal, reports Rosenthal (on Twitter). The 30-year-old worked 63 1/3 innings of 4.83 ERA/3.93 SIERA ball this past season.
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $2MM deal with left-hander Caleb Smith, reports Zach Buchanan of the Athletic (via Twitter). The 30-year-old posted a 4.83 ERA/4.68 SIERA across 113 2/3 innings in a swing capacity in 2021.

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Rockies Interested In Kris Bryant

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It’s been a quiet few weeks on the Kris Bryant front since the free-agent market opened, but MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand both report that he has a somewhat surprising suitor in the form of the Rockies (Twitter links). Feinsand suggests that while the Rockies have “real” interest in getting something done, however, there may not be time to put together a contract and complete a physical between now and the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement.

Similarly, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports that it’s “less and less likely” the Rockies will make any sort of major move prior to the lockout (Twitter links). Saunders adds that the Rox have “definite” interest but that Bryant could be eyeing a deal in the $160-170MM range, which likely makes a more affordable outfield target (e.g. Michael Conforto) more palatable in Denver.

A deal with Bryant would be at least somewhat surprising given that the Rockies last major, nine-figure expenditure (Nolan Arenado) resulted in a trade to St. Louis that saw Colorado covering more than $50MM of the guaranteed money on the deal. The Rockies also balked at even a qualifying offer for righty Jon Gray and haven’t to this point been strongly linked to their own free agent with a case for a nine-figure deal: Trevor Story.

That said, it’s easy to see how Bryant could fit into the Colorado lineup — either in the outfield or at third base. The Rox could play Ryan McMahon at second base, move Brendan Rodgers to his original position (shortstop) and clear an easy path for Bryant at the hot corner.

In the outfield, things are even more open. Neither center fielder Sam Hilliard nor infielder/outfielder Garrett Hampson has provided any offense over the past two seasons, and while Connor Joe hit well this past season, it was only a sample of 211 plate appearances for the 29-year-old journeyman. Charlie Blackmon remains entrenched in right field, but it’d be easy to write Bryant in as the primary left fielder and let the others vie for time in center and/or around the infield.

It remains to be seen whether the Rockies will actually engage in a serious pursuit of Bryant or are merely hoping to serve as an opportunistic landing spot in the event his market doesn’t crystallize as hoped. But from a payroll vantage point, Colorado can certainly afford to make a splash of that nature. The Rox currently have about $103.5MM in projected salary, per Roster Resource — a far cry from the franchise-record $136MM payroll.

The dollars on any offer to Bryant will be paramount for Colorado — perhaps more so than with other teams. While Bryant would surely be intrigued by playing half his games at Coors Field, the Rockies’ generally noncompetitive status for the past several seasons could make for a tough sell to high-end free agents — at least if they have comparable offers from contending clubs. The Rockies have made some moves early in the offseason, re-signing would-be free agents C.J. Cron and Jhoulys Chacin while extending both righty Antonio Senzatela and catcher Elias Diaz.

However, all of those pieces were already in place in a 2021 season that resulted in a lowly 74-87 finish. Meanwhile, the Rox have already lost Gray to the Rangers and could potentially lose their best position player, Story. A series of extensions for 2021 holdovers shows a willingness to spend some money — as does even passing interest in Bryant — but doesn’t make a particularly compelling sales pitch for prospective free agents hoping to sign with a win-now team. That’s not to say the Rockies don’t have any chance at signing Bryant (or another free agent of this caliber), but they’ll likely need to go the extra mile in terms of an additional year and/or a premium in terms of annual salary — similar to the Rangers’ approach this winter.

Quick Hits: Red Sox, Hill, Twins, Cruz, Rockies, Black

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Rich Hill has already emphatically stated that he’ll be back for 2022, a season in which he’ll be 42 years old. But would the Red Sox be interested in a reunion with the Massachusetts native? “There is an interest, without a doubt,” Hill told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. “There’s a need on the other end. [But] the need for starting pitching is very apparent throughout the league — not just in Boston. It’s also many other clubs that need it.”

The lefty is certainly correct about the demand throughout the league, as starting pitchers have been flying off the shelves so far this offseason. In just over three weeks since free agency began, Eduardo Rodriguez, Justin Verlander, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Anthony DeSclafani and Andrew Heaney have all been inked already, with Alex Wood reportedly close to signing as well. Despite his age, Hill figures to garner lots of interest as well, given his solid 2021 campaign. His tally of 158 2/3 innings was the second-highest of his career, trailing only the 195 innings he logged as a 27-year-old in 2007. Between the Rays and Mets last year, he put up an ERA of 3.86 with a strikeout rate of 22.7% and walk rate of 8.3%, producing 1.7 fWAR in the process.

The Red Sox have already lost Eduardo Rodriguez to the Tigers, leaving them with a rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta and Tanner Houck, with Connor Seabold, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock among the options for the back end. There’d certainly be room to add Hill into the mix, though whether they prefer Hill to some other options on the market remains to be seen.

More tidbits from around the league…

  • After an excellent 258-game stretch with the Twins over three different seasons, Nelson Cruz was traded to the Rays before last year’s deadline. Although the club isn’t completely ruling out a reunion, it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be the top of their to-do list this winter. Dan Hayes of The Athletic spoke to GM Thad Levine about the situation. “In a most ideal case, when you’re building a roster you would like to have a DH spot as an open position to rotate guys through and give them a partial day of rest,” he said. “We have chosen to go a different route in each of the last couple seasons because we felt we had an elite DH.” As noted by Hayes, the club is going to be primarily focused on pitching for now, which makes sense given that they’ve lost Jose Berrios to trade, Michael Pineda to free agency and Kenta Maeda to Tommy John surgery. Cruz also struggled after being traded to the Rays, hitting .226/.283/.442, for a wRC+ of 96, raising questions about how productive he will be as a 41-year-old in 2022. But Levine still left the door open a crack, saying they “want to keep the DH spot open to allow for a bunch of players to rotate through that position, unless something exceptional comes our way, at which point we’d have to review it.”
  • Bud Black is heading into his sixth season as the skipper of the Rockies, which is also the final year of his current contract. In a recent mailbag, Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post says he heard that extension talks were ongoing, but that he “checked that out with general manager Bill Schmidt, who told me that wasn’t true. Schmidt added, however, that talks with Black are certainly possible in the coming months.” Schmidt was the VP of scouting with the Rockies from 2007 until May of 2021. At that point, he was named interim GM, in the wake of the resignation of Jeff Bridich, before officially getting the job last month. As he enters his first offseason in the GM chair, it’s unclear whether he considers Black to be part of the future he envisions for the franchise. Black, 64, has a record of 349-359 in his time with the Rockies and an overall record of 998-1072 when combined with his nine seasons with the Padres.

Mets Claim Antonio Santos

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The Mets have claimed right-hander Antonio Santos off waivers from the Rockies, per a club announcement. Between this claim and the Mets’ earlier signing of outfielder Nick Plummer to a Major League contract, the team is up to 39 players on its 40-man roster.

Santos, 25, has spent parts of the past two seasons with the Rox but yielded 17 runs through 17 1/3 innings in his brief MLB auditions. He was also hit hard in 45 1/3 Triple-A frames in 2021, posting a 7.94 ERA with a 15.1% strikeout rate against a 12.7% walk rate. That said, Santos averages nearly 96 mph with his heater and complemented that primary offering with four secondary pitches.

Despite his impressive velocity, Santos hasn’t missed bats at a huge level in the minors (19.1% strikeout rate). However, he’s also walked only 5.1% of his opponents in the minors, and the resulting 14.1 K-BB% is at least somewhat intriguing when paired with that fastball and a deep arsenal of potential second/third pitches. Santos still has a minor league option remaining, too, so he can give the Mets some depth and flexibility in the bullpen this winter.

Wade Davis Announces Retirement

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Three-time All-Star and 2015 World Series champion Wade Davis announced his retirement after a 13-year MLB career Wednesday (via a tweet from the Royals).

Wade Davis

Davis, 36, began his pro career as a third-round pick by the Devil Rays back in 2004. He ranked not only among Tampa Bay’s top prospects but among the best farmhands in all of baseball from 2007-10, while developing as a rotation hopeful in a perennially strong Tampa Bay system.

After a strong run through the minors, Davis debuted as a 23-year-old in 2009, going on to enjoy some success as a member of the Rays’ rotation for the next couple of seasons. From 2009-11, Davis started 64 games and pitched to a 4.22 ERA out of the Tampa rotation — albeit with lackluster strikeout and walk rates, as well as less-flattering marks from fielding-independent pitching metrics.

A move to the bullpen in 2012 brought about a sub-3.00 ERA and nearly doubled Davis’ strikeout rate, but the Royals still had designs on moving him back into the rotation when acquiring Davis and teammate James Shields in what remains one of the more surprising and impactful blockbuster trades in recent memory. Shields, controlled two years at the time, and Davis (controlled for three) went to the Royals in exchange for then-prospects Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard. It was a massive deal that had long-term implications for both clubs — a trade that set the stage for Kansas City’s eventual back-to-back World Series appearances.

Davis didn’t fare too well in his return to starting pitching, as his first season with Kansas City culminated in a 5.32 ERA in 135 2/3 innings. The Royals put Davis back in the ’pen following those struggles, and Davis joined Greg Holland, Kelvin Herrera and (in 2015) Ryan Madson in anchoring some of the most imposing bullpens of the past decade. The dominant relief corps that Kansas City rode to a 2014 World Series loss and a 2015 World Series title, in many ways, helped to drive the emphasis teams place on cultivating a deep collection of power-armed relievers for ideal postseason usage.

Davis not only thrived in his return to the bullpen — he broke out as one of the best relief pitchers on the planet. He posted a flat 1.00 ERA with a 39.1% strikeout rate in 2014 — a brilliant strikeout rate even by today’s standards but a nearly unparalleled mark back in ’14, when the leaguewide strikeout rate was nearly four percent lower than at its recent peak in 2020. Davis finished eighth in Cy Young voting that season and somehow followed up with an even better year in 2015, when he posted a sub-1.00 ERA and landed sixth in AL Cy Young voting.

Davis’ dominance extended well beyond the regular season in that pair of World Series campaigns with Kansas City. He was almost comedically overpowering in the postseason, performing on a completely different level than the opposing lineups through which he breezed.  In 25 innings of postseason play from 2014-15, Davis allowed one earned run on just 14 hits with a staggering 38-to-5 K/BB ratio.

The Royals embarked on something of a rebuild in the 2016-17 offseason, as most of their World Series core reached or was nearing free agency. That prompted the Royals to flip Davis to the reigning World Champion Cubs, netting eventual American League home run leader Jorge Soler in return. Davis’ dominance largely continued in Chicago. In all, from 2014-17, Davis made three All-Star teams while pitching to a 1.45 ERA with 79 saves and a 33.1% strikeout rate in 241 1/3 regular-season innings (plus plenty of postseason mastery).

It was wholly unsurprising that he was in demand as a free agent that winter, and the Rockies rewarded Davis with a three-year, $52MM contract that established a new average annual salary record for a reliever at $17.33MM. Davis led the National League with 43 saves in 2018, his first season with the Rox, but things unraveled thereafter. Oblique and shoulder injuries weighed Davis down in subsequent seasons, and the Rockies released him in Sept. 2020 with just weeks remaining on that three-year pact.

The 2021 season marked something of a full-circle campaign for Davis, who returned to the Royals on a minor league deal and broke camp in the team’s bullpen. Forearm and continued shoulder troubles sent Davis to the injured list on multiple occasions, however, and his once-96.5 mph heater sat at a greatly diminished 92.8 mph. Davis managed 42 2/3 innings in relief, but he was hit hard and finished out the season with a 6.75 ERA.

All told, Davis will conclude his career at 63-55 with 141 saves, 270 games finished, a 3.94 ERA and 929 strikeouts in 990 1/3 regular-season innings. He tacked on an additional 40 innings of 1.80 ERA ball, four wins, eight saves and 57 strikeouts in a sensational postseason career. Davis made more than $87MM in a 13-year career and will forever be remembered by Royals faithful for the indelible role he played in Kansas City’s baseball renaissance in 2014-15.

Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

Rockies Select Three Players

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The Rockies on Friday announced three players have been selected to the 40-man roster: lefty Ryan Rolison, righty Noah Davis and infielder Ezequiel Tovar. All three are now protected from this offseason’s Rule 5 Draft. Colorado’s 40-man roster is up to a total of 39 players.

Rolison, 24, had a rough season in Triple-A this year but is still regarded as one of the better pitching prospects in a thin Rockies system. The 2018 first-rounder was clobbered for a 5.91 ERA in 45 2/3 frames with the Rockies’ top affiliate. An appendectomy operation interrupted his 2021 season and kept him on the shelf for a notable chunk of the summer, but the lefty pitched well prior to that surgery. He’s generally regarded as a potential big league starter with a full four-pitch mix — the type of prospect the Rockies are lacking in the upper minors.

Davis, an 11th-round pick by the Reds in 2018, came to the Rockies in their deadline Mychal Givens swap. He’s yet to advance to the Double-A level but did notch a 3.60 ERA with a 25.2% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate in 106 innings at Class-A Advanced between the two organizations. Ranked 18th among Rockies prospects at MLB.com, he’s seen as a potential fifth starter.

Tovar, a slick-fielding shortstop, split the 2021 season between the Rockies’ two Class-A levels and posted a .287/.322/.475 batting line. Most of his damage came in Low-A, and scouting reports on Tovar question how much he’ll ever hit against more advanced pitching. Tovar’s 2021 numbers were sound, however, and if he can continue to defy expectations at the plate he could factor into the big league equation by the 2023 season.

Rockies Sign Elias Diaz To Three-Year Extension

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The Rockies are keeping their catcher around beyond next season, announcing a three-year extension with Elias Díaz. The deal buys out his final year of arbitration-eligibility and first two years of free agency. Díaz will reportedly be guaranteed $14.5MM over its entirety, with the specific salary breakdown yet to be reported.

It’s a nice birthday present for the MAS+ Agency client, who turned 31 yesterday. Díaz has spent the past two seasons in Denver, starting the majority of the team’s games behind the dish in 2021. He’s coming off a nice season, hitting .246/.310/.464 with 18 home runs across 371 plate appearances. Those bottom line results are inflated somewhat by playing his home games at Coors Field, but it’s decent production even after factoring in that favorable environment. By measure of wRC+ — which includes a park adjustment — Díaz’s hitting was about three percentage points better than that of the league average catcher.

That’s one of the better showings of his career. The right-handed hitting backstop entered the 2021 campaign with just a .248/.300/.355 mark across 888 plate appearances between the Pirates and Colorado. He made similar strides on the other side of the ball, rating as an above-average pitch framer (per Statcast) this past season for the first time in his five-year tenure. While he’s drawn mixed reviews as a receiver over the course of his career, he’s consistently done a strong job shutting down the running game. Díaz has cut down 30.4% of attempted base-stealers as a big leaguer, a mark that’s a few percentage points north of the league average in that time.

The Rockies clearly believe Díaz’s numbers this past season better reflect his true talent, and they’ll place a fairly modest bet he can continue to be a capable #1 catcher over the coming years. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected Díaz to land a 2022 salary in the $2.6MM range if he’d proceeded through arbitration. Essentially, the Rockies are tacking on around $12MM in additional money to buy themselves two more years of team control. That’s a bit below the $16MM the Braves guaranteed Travis d’Arnaud on a two-year extension in August (although d’Arnaud’s deal also contained a 2024 club option).

The Rox shouldn’t have much difficulty fitting Díaz’s deal on the books. Colorado entered today with a projected payroll in the $104MM range, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s right in line with their 2021 season-opening tally, but they only have around $56MM in guaranteed 2023 commitments at the moment, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. With the Rockies planning to increase payroll over the coming two seasons, this extension shouldn’t serve as much of an impediment to future additions.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the Rockies and Díaz had agreed on a three-year extension. Thomas Harding of MLB.com reported the $14.5MM guarantee.

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Sports.

Rockies Notes: Shortstop, McMahon, Free Agency, Marquez

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With Trevor Story set to decline the qualifying offer in search of a multi-year contract elsewhere, the Rockies enter the offseason with a question mark at shortstop for the first time in years. Among the options under consideration: moving third baseman Ryan McMahon up the defensive spectrum to short, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post.

“(Moving McMahon) is something we have discussed,” Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt told Saunders. “Ryan has good range and that’s something we saw last year when he played third base with the shift on.” While McMahon told Saunders he’d yet to hear anything from the organization about that possibility, he sounded amenable to the idea. “I’d like to think that I could work at any (position) and become at least a solid defender there,” the 26-year-old said.

Kicking McMahon over to shortstop on a regular basis would be quite the risk. Not only has he never started a game there in the major leagues, he’s logged all of three innings at the position in his professional career. The California native moved from shortstop to third base in high school, and he’s bounced between the hot corner, second base and first base as a pro.

As Schmidt suggested, though, McMahon’s coming off an excellent defensive season at multiple spots on the diamond. Defensive Runs Saved estimated he was twelve runs above average over 848 2/3 innings at third base (a position at which he was a Gold Glove finalist) and pegged him as an incredible nine runs better than average in just 368 1/3 frames at second base. Statcast credited him with twelve Outs Above Average between the two positions, a mark that tied for tenth among infielders league-wide.

Were the Rockies to address the position internally, it seems McMahon is likelier to shoulder it than Brendan Rodgers. While Rodgers came up as a shortstop prospect, he’s spent the bulk of his time at second base in recent seasons. That was primarily in deference to Story, but Schmidt reiterated when speaking with Saunders that the club would prefer to keep Rodgers at the keystone.

Of course, the Rox aren’t foreclosing the possibility of addressing shortstop from outside the organization. Schmidt told Saunders the front office is exploring the free agent market. A full-fledged pursuit at one of the market’s top shortstops seems unlikely, but the club could pursue a shorter-term agreement with a player like Andrelton Simmons or Freddy Galvis to at least stabilize the defense.

While a run at one of the top shortstops probably won’t be in the cards, the Rockies have been expected to target a power-hitting outfielder over the coming months. Schmidt confirmed when speaking with Nick Groke of the Athletic the front office sees an addition in the grass as the “best place” for a meaningful upgrade to the lineup. Kyle Schwarber, Chris Taylor, Avisaíl García, Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto are among a fairly strong group of free agent outfielders available.

Signing Taylor or Conforto — both of whom rejected qualifying offers from their previous clubs — would cost the Rockies their third-highest pick in the 2022 draft. With the Rockies facing an uphill battle to compete in a loaded NL West next year, there’s a case that Colorado should prioritize future draft considerations over nearer-term adds.

Schmidt isn’t ruling out a run at a qualified free agent, though, telling Groke he’d be open to surrendering draft compensation in the right scenario. “You have to take it case by case and explore your options,” the veteran executive said. “You can’t blanket say, ‘There’s a draft pick compensation, we’re out.’ You have to consider who the player is, what the acquisition cost is, and what are your alternatives.”

Schmidt’s win-now attitude is the latest reaffirmation that Colorado brass doesn’t view themselves being far from contention. It’s unsurprising given that stance that the Rockies aren’t expected to trade staff ace Germán Márquez this offseason, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. While Colorado could surely bring back a massive haul for a talented, controllable rotation building block like Márquez, they seemingly gave very little consideration to moving the 26-year-old at this past summer’s trade deadline. Instead, it seems the right-hander will be back for his third consecutive Opening Day start in purple and black.

Trevor Story To Reject Qualifying Offer

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Confirming a widely expected development, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports that Trevor Story will not accept the Rockies’ qualifying offer ahead of tomorrow’s deadline. As such, he’ll forego the one-year, $18.4MM deal and test the open market as part of a historic class of high-end free agent shortstops.

Assuming Story does not ultimately re-sign with Colorado, the Rox will receive a compensation pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A presuming Story signs for $50MM or more, or a pick between the second round and Competitive Balance Round B should he sign for less than $50MM. The former is, of course, more likely; MLBTR has him pegged for six years and $126MM.

Perhaps the more intriguing news in Saunders’ report is that the list of teams who’ve checked in with the shortstop (Saunders counts 8) does not include the Rockies. While Story is widely expected to leave the Mile High City this winter, news that Colorado hasn’t even checked in with their longtime star’s camp is noteworthy — and makes their decision not to trade him at this year’s trade deadline all the more puzzling. Per a June report from Saunders, Story made it clear to Rockies’ management he had little interest in engaging in extension talks (perhaps related to the club’s handling of Nolan Arenado following his extension), and letting him walk without at least the appearance of a fight may not endear new GM Bill Schmidt to the Colorado fanbase.

Though Story’s walk-year numbers (.251/.329/.471, with an OPS+ of 103) hardly represent his strongest showing, his career baseline of .272/.340/.523 (112 OPS+) tells a different tale, particularly given Story’s consistently stellar glovework (69 DRS across six seasons) at a premium position. The relative mediocrity of Story’s 2021 may also have been driven by an elbow injury that sent him to the 10-day IL in late May. An MRI at the time revealed no structural damage, and the shortstop looked much more like his old self in the second half, posting an .843 OPS (just below his career .863 mark).

Story’s OPS+ numbers take the effect of Coors Field into account, but it is worth noting that his home/road splits are significant; his career OPS at Coors (.972) dwarfs his career mark (.752) closer to sea level. This may give teams pause in offering Story the sort of mega-deal that Carlos Correa and Corey Seager (and possibly Marcus Semien) are likely to receive, but he remains a fairly safe bet to at least push nine figures of guaranteed money.

Presuming Story ultimately departs, the Rockies do have an in-house replacement at the ready in former top prospect Brendan Rodgers, who mostly played second base in 2021 but also served as Story’s deputy at short. The versatility of Ryan McMahon (who played second and third in his breakout 2021) and speedster Garrett Hampson (who’s seen time at five positions in the bigs) gives the club a chance to get creative in putting its infield together. It may also open a space for power-hitting corner infielder Elehuris Montero, the Rox’ number-four prospect per MLB.com, to make it to Denver in 2022.

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