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Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Bullpens

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We’ve gone over how the five worst offenses and rotations of last season now look with the offseason nearing completion. We’ll do the same here with the quintet of bullpens that had the most difficulty preventing runs in 2019. Judging a bullpen just by ERA is an admittedly crude method, though each of the relief units in question here also posted subpar fielding-independent metrics. The bottom line is that they struggled. Let’s see how they stack up now…

Baltimore Orioles (5.79 ERA/5.38 FIP; current depth chart)

  • No surprise to see the Orioles at the bottom, considering the rebuilding outfit’s myriad difficulties last season. The Orioles didn’t get particularly impressive production from any of their relievers. Even their No. 1 option, Mychal Givens, had trouble at times, though he did strike out better than 12 batters per nine. Givens is on track to open the season with the Orioles, but he could certainly be an in-season trade candidate. If they move him, it would further weaken a bullpen that hasn’t added anyone of note this offseason.

Washington Nationals (5.68 ERA/4.94 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Nationals proved last season that you can have a bottom-of-the-barrel bullpen from a statistical standpoint and still win the World Series. However, general manager Mike Rizzo’s in-season tinkering with the group proved effective, especially the acquisition of flamethrowing closer Daniel Hudson at the trade deadline. Hudson remains in the fold, having re-signed in free agency for two years and $11MM. In an even bigger move, the Nationals signed Will Harris – a former Astro whom they upended in the Fall Classic – to a three-year, $24MM pact. With those two and the returning Sean Doolittle, Washington appears to be in nice shape late in games, but it’ll need more from Hunter Strickland, Roenis Elias, Wander Suero and Tanner Rainey.

Colorado Rockies (5.18 ERA/5.12 FIP; current depth chart)

  • There were few oft-used bright spots last season in Colorado’s bullpen, which didn’t get much from anyone but Scott Oberg and Carlos Estevez. The good news is that it’s hard to imagine Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee pitching much worse in 2020 than they did last season. And even if they do, they’re all entering the final guaranteed season of their onerous contracts, so they shouldn’t be the Rockies’ problem for much longer. In the meantime, the Rockies are going to need bounce-back efforts from them because they haven’t meaningfully addressed their late-game setup this offseason.

Kansas City Royals (5.07 ERA/4.55 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Kansas City’s another team that has been quiet in the past few months, despite its less-than-stellar output a year ago. There are a couple bullpen trade candidates on hand in Ian Kennedy and Tim Hill, arguably the Royals’ two best relievers, but nothing has materialized on those fronts thus far. Kennedy was terrific last season in his first year as a reliever, though the fact that he’s due $16.5MM in 2020 has likely scared off interested teams.

New York Mets (4.99 ERA/4.71 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Mets were extremely busy in trying to repair their bullpen last offseason, when they traded for ex-Mariners star Edwin Diaz and signed Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson. The latter pitched well during an injury-shortened campaign, but Diaz and Familia fell off a cliff, which is why the Mets are on this list a year later. At least in Diaz’s case, though, it would be reasonable to expect a much better performance in 2020. He struck out over 15 batters per nine and maintained his 97 mph velocity last year, after all, and isn’t going to surrender home runs on 27 percent of fly balls again this season. Regardless of how he does, the Mets have added some notable support to their relief unit in the past several weeks. They signed former Yankee Dellin Betances, one of the elite relievers in recent memory (albeit one coming off an injury-ruined year), as well as the accomplished Brad Brach. They also have the newly signed Michael Wacha as a potential long relief option, not to mention holdovers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman.

Latest On Nolan Arenado

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The future of Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado has been one of the dominant stories in baseball this week. Arenado has been the subject of trade speculation for weeks, but Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich shot down the possibility of a deal Monday, saying the Rox “have listened to teams regarding Nolan and really nothing has come of it.” Bridich added that he wants to put the Arenado rumors “to bed” and look ahead to 2020, though the five-time All-Star reignited the fire shortly after with some scathing comments regarding the Rockies.

Arenado stated that the Rockies have “disrespected” him this offseason, reportedly because he’s unhappy with the higher-ups’ lack of effort to improve a roster that suffered through a dismal 2019 season. Now, though, Arenado says he’s done talking about his relationship with Bridich or the ongoing trade rumors.

In a texted statement issued to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, Arenado wrote: “There has been a lot of stuff going on that nobody knows about and I was reacting to what was said, and (that) was out of character for me because I’m very private with my life. The Rockies have been talking to my agent and me this offseason about a number of things that will remain between us. I will not speak on these things anymore. I’m getting ready for the upcoming season. I’m working hard to get better for my teammates and fans.”

Whether this means the two sides will move forward together heading into the season remains to be seen. Arenado’s the Rockies’ franchise player, so even though he’s on a seven-year, $234MM contract with an opt-out clause after 2021, they’re not just going to give him away. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported Tuesday that the Rockies have informed clubs they aren’t trading Arenado if a deal doesn’t improve their roster this year. The odds of that happening seem very slim, needless to say.

In the event the Rockies do get an offer to their liking, the soon-to-be 29-year-old Arenado – despite his full no-trade rights – might jump at the chance to play for a contender. Several playoff-caliber teams, including the Cardinals, Braves, Dodgers, Cubs, are among those that have shown interest in Arenado in recent weeks.

KBO’s LG Twins Purchase Roberto Ramos’ Contract From Rockies

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The LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization have purchased first baseman Roberto Ramos’ contract from the Rockies, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Ramos can earn up to $500K in 2020, MLBTR has learned.

This ends a five-season tenure in the Colorado organization for Ramos, whom they chose in the 16th round of the 2014 draft. Ramos worked his way up to the Triple-A level for the first time last year and raked. Across 503 plate appearances, the 25-year-old slashed .309/.400/.580 with 30 home runs. Ramos did have the benefit of playing in the offense-happy Pacific Coast League, but his production was still 35 percent better than the PCL average, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric.

Thanks in part to his powerful showing in 2019, Ramos recently earned spots on a couple Rockies prospect lists. MLB.com placed him as the team’s 27th-best farmhand after the season. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Kylie McDaniel had Ramos No. 31 in Colorado’s system in rankings released last month, crediting his “gigantic raw power.” However, they wrote that Ramos has “Quad-A hitter written all over him.”

Latest On Nolan Arenado’s Relationship With Rockies

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There have been plenty of recent trade rumors centering on Rockies superstar Nolan Arenado, but the saga took a particularly interesting turn Monday. Shortly after general manager Jeff Bridich indicated the Rockies don’t plan to part with Arenado prior to the season, the third baseman made it known that he’s displeased with the organization.

Arenado revealed that he feels the Rockies have “disrespected” him, but not because the team has listened to offers for him. He noted he’s “not mad at trade rumors. There’s more to it than that.” However, Arenado didn’t go into detail on how the Rockies have damaged the two sides’ union.

It turns out the Rockies’ offseason inactivity has been the immediate source of the newfound friction, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports. And it appears. the star third baseman has particular ire for the organization’s general manager. He told Troy Renck of Denver7 last night that Bridich specifically “is very disrespectful.”

Check out today’s Trade Rumors video, where Jeff Todd discusses Arenado and much more:

The Rockies, then coming off a playoff berth, locked up Arenado to a seven-year, $234MM contract extension prior to last season. The team struggled immensely in 2019, though, and it hasn’t done anything since then to improve its chances of bouncing back this year. Owner Dick Monfort suggested after last season that the Rockies would not further expand payroll and indeed they haven’t signed any free agents to major league contracts this offseason. That inactivity doesn’t sit well with Arenado, who had received assurances that the organization would keep working to put out a contender, Nick Groke of The Athletic writes (subscription link). Arenado and Monfort even had an in-person meeting sometime this offseason, but that sitdown wasn’t able to quell the former’s growing discontent with the franchise. The Rockies, for their part, indicated to Passan that they are “puzzled” over Arenado’s stance so soon after he signed his long-term deal.

Despite what Bridich said Monday, it still seems possible that an Arenado trade will come together – if his relationship with the team has become irreparably damaged. As those who have followed the rumors know, though, there are complicating factors that have stood in the way of a swap and could continue to prevent one. Not only does Arenado’s pact include a whopping amount of cash, including $35MM in 2020, but it also features full no-trade rights and an opt-out decision after 2021. The latter issue probably hasn’t done his trade value any favors, but as Passan notes, the Rockies have still held out for a huge return for their franchise player. They were “exchanging proposals with teams” as recently as this past weekend, but an agreement hasn’t come close to materializing.

In yet another intriguing aspect of this story, the Cubs are among the clubs that have shown some level of interest in Arenado this winter, Passan relays. The Cubs, like the Rockies, have been hesitant to spend this offseason, so it would be a shock to see them add Arenado (and it’s unclear just how interested they’ve been in doing so). They also already have an elite-caliber third base option in Kris Bryant, who has joined Arenado in the rumor mill of late. It’s unclear where either player will open the 2020 season, but Arenado’s situation in particular has become increasingly fascinating as spring training approaches.

MLBTR Poll: Nolan Arenado’s Future

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With almost all high-end free agents having signed since free agency opened in November, the trade market has become the best avenue for securing star-level talent. It’s up in the air whether any standouts will change hands in the coming weeks, granted, but rumors have persisted regarding the likes of MVP-caliber players such as Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, Francisco Lindor and Mookie Betts.

In Arenado’s case, Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich came out Monday and admitted he has listened to offers for the all-world third baseman, but no team has made a compelling enough pitch to pry him out of Colorado. As such, the Rockies expect to open 2020 with Arenado as the centerpiece of their roster.

According to Bridich, “we can put this to bed and collectively look forward to the upcoming season and work toward that.” Arenado may have other ideas, though. Shortly after Bridich’s statements became public, the 28-year-old Arenado broke his silence on the constant trade rumors surrounding himself and took aim at the Rockies in the process. Arenado said he feels the Rockies have “disrespected” him, adding that “there’s a lot of disrespect from people there that I don’t want to be a part of.”

Arenado didn’t name names, but the fact that he’s calling out the organization is nonetheless jarring. After all, just before last season, the Rockies signed Arenado to a franchise-record contract extension worth $234MM over seven years. That massive dollar figure is probably one of the reasons they haven’t found a trade to their liking for Arenado yet. Moreover, Arenado’s pact contains an opt-out clause after 2021 – yet another cause for teams not to present an enormous offer to the Rockies for him – as well as full no-trade rights. Of course, if Arenado’s this fed up with high-level members of the Colorado organization, and if it’s true that winning is his top priority (the Rockies didn’t do much of that in 2019, nor do they look likely to contend this year), the no-trade clause may not pose a problem.

So far this winter, the Cardinals, Rangers, Braves, Dodgers and Nationals have all been linked to Arenado in the rumor mill. Aside from the Rangers, each of those teams made the playoffs last year. It stands to reason Arenado would have interest in joining the majority of those teams, but one of them (or another club) will first have to entice the Rockies to give up the “disrespected” face of their franchise. Do you expect that to happen?

(Poll link for app users)

Bill DeWitt Jr. On Cardinals’ Payroll

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Recent reports have connected the Cardinals to a couple high-profile names – their top free agent, outfielder Marcell Ozuna, as well as Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado – but pump the brakes if you expect a major acquisition prior to the season. Owner Bill DeWitt Jr. said Monday that he doesn’t think there’s a “significant” pickup in the offing, adding that it wouldn’t fit the Cardinals’ “model,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.

Between Ozuna and Arenado, the latter would unquestionably be the more impactful get, and he made it clear Monday he’s displeased with the Rockies. However, according to DeWitt, the Cardinals are “not actively” looking to make a trade. Arenado’s enormous contract (seven years, $234MM, including $35MM in 2020) may be part of the reason why.

The Cardinals, who began last year’s NL Central-winning campaign with a franchise-record Opening-Day payroll of just over $162MM, already have $168MM-plus in commitments heading into this season, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. If we’re to take DeWitt at his word, that’s about all they want to spend. The team’s “pushing the envelope” by even being in the $170MM range, per DeWitt, who did note the Cards would consider bumping that total “up a little bit.” But there’s nothing “little” about Arenado’s salary, and DeWitt revealed that, at this point, they “can’t be in that kind of ($35 million) range” on an addition(s) to their roster.

Ozuna’s next deal will be worth far less than Arenado’s, of course, but even he could prove too rich for the Cardinals’ blood. Regardless, they’re not pursuing Ozuna with much gusto, as Goold writes they aren’t “nearly as aggressive as other teams” on trying to reel in the qualifying offer recipient. Therefore, it appears St. Louis will enter the season with a mix of several other in-house options as their outfield choices.

Assuming the Cardinals don’t come away with Ozuna, Arenado or any other big names, this will go down as a quiet winter for the club. So far, Korean left-hander Kwang-hyun Kim – whom they signed to a modest guarantee worth $8MM over two years – has been the Cardinals’ most noteworthy outside acquisition. Aside from winning the derby for Kim, they’ve re-signed righty Adam Wainwright and catcher Matt Wieters for a combined $7MM.

Nolan Arenado: “I Feel Disrespected” By Rockies

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On the same night that Rockies GM Jeff Bridich said that star third baseman Nolan Arenado wouldn’t be traded, the third baseman laid bare his less-than-positive feelings towards the organization. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post was on the story in both cases.

“I really don’t care what’s being said,” Arenado stated to Saunders. “I just know that I feel disrespected over there.” He offered similarly antagonistic words to MLB.com’s Thomas Harding, writing in a text that “there’s a lot of disrespect from people there that I don’t want to be a part of.”

Arenado declined to elaborate initially. But he noted in a follow-up statement to Harding (Twitter link) that he isn’t upset at being mentioned in trade chatter. Per Arenado: “I’m not mad at trade rumors. There’s more to it than that.”

The source of Arenado’s frustration still isn’t entirely clear. But there’s little doubt the Rockies’ downturn in 2019 features prominently. And his expression of anger coincides with — even if it doesn’t specifically relate to — the trade speculation that has hovered over his name this winter.

The star third baseman has no-trade rights, meaning he’d have to be involved at some point in any trade scenario. Whether and to what extent he has been in communication with the Rockies about trade scenarios is entirely unknown. There has been no public indication that he was specifically pressing the organization for a trade. Arenado’s pointed phrasing from late last season — “it feels like a rebuild” — drew attention, but seems to have been taken out of context.

Whether these new comments will have any practical impact remains to be seen. The sides remain bound by a seven-year deal, unless and until Arenado opts out (after 2021) or approves a swap orchestrated by the team. Bridich’s comments seemed designed to bring this month-long trade drama to a close. But now Arenado has given a tantalizing look into his thinking that’s sure to draw even greater scrutiny to his relationship and future with the Colorado organization.

Rockies GM Jeff Bridich Says Nolan Arenado Won’t Be Traded

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Rockies GM Jeff Bridich has all but shut the door on a potential offseason trade involving star third baseman Nolan Arenado, as Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports. Per Bridich, the Rockies “have listened to teams regarding Nolan and really nothing has come of it.”

Accordingly, he said, the club is “going to move forward pretty much as we expected — with Nolan in the purple and black and as our third baseman.” If there was any uncertainty in that phrasing, Bridich seemingly covered it with an additional statement (which doubles as an exhortation to the fans and media): “So we can put this to bed and collectively look forward to the upcoming season and work toward that.”

This is about as much finality as one can reasonably expect to hear from an executive regarding a run of trade rumors — though there is one rather memorable example that went a bit further. In theory, perhaps, the situation could yet change. Bridich indicates that the Rockies didn’t hear anything enticing from rival organizations, but it’s always possible the offers could increase.

Even if there’s some hypothetical possibility of a revival of offseason talks, it seems the bar is now raised rather substantially for a deal. The Rockies surely (and understandably) wish to avoid major uncertainty in the run-up to Spring Training. And now their top baseball executive has very nearly promised that the club’s biggest star will be in Colorado for 2020.

The Rangers, Cardinals, Braves, and others were connected to Arenado at various points in time. It was never clear that talks advanced beyond preliminary stages. While Bridich’s comments confirm that some discussions occurred, it’s fair to wonder whether the smoke really suited the fire.

On paper, it never seemed especially likely Arenado would be moved unless the Rox decided they simply had to move his contract off the books. He’s slated to earn $234MM over seven seasons, which is a fair rate for a player of his abilities and age. But Arenado will have an opt-out opportunity after two seasons, thus limiting the upside. There just isn’t a huge amount of anticipated surplus value in the contract. On the Rockies’ side, meanwhile, it would’ve been hard to part with such a central player unless significant talent came back in return — even given the obvious roster challenges facing the club this winter.

Rockies’ Justin Lawrence Suspended For PED Use

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Rockies’ reliever Justin Lawrence has been suspended without pay for 80 games, MLB announced today. He tested positive for dehydrochlormethyltestosterone, a performance-enhancing substance.

Lawrence, 25, was selected to the Rockies’ 40-man roster last offseason, although he has yet to make his MLB debut. After breaking out with a strong season in High-A and in the Arizona Fall League in 2018, Lawrence regressed last season. In 37 innings between Triple-A Albuquerque and Double-A Hartford, he managed just an 8.76 ERA with 29 walks and 32 strikeouts. In their postseason write-up of the Rockies’ farm system, Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen called Lawrence “an upper-90’s siderarmer with very poor pitch execution.”

Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Rotations

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We checked in last week on what, if anything, the five lowest-scoring offenses of 2019 have done to improve themselves this winter. Let’s now take a look at whether any of the five starting rotations that posted the highest ERAs last year have gotten better this offseason. Free agency won’t offer much in the way of help at this point, so for the most part, what you see here is probably what you’ll get..

Colorado Rockies (5.87 ERA/5.31 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Assembling a competent starting staff has regularly been a problem for the Rockies, who are stuck playing half their games at the unkind confines of Coors Field. It was a different story in 2018, the year the Rockies boasted a high-end starting staff, but things took a sharp turn for the worse last season. Aside from German Marquez and Jon Gray, who continued their strong production, no one from the Rockies’ rotation performed well. Kyle Freeland suffered through a disastrous campaign after posting a Cy Young-caliber 2018, while Antonio Senzatela, Peter Lambert, Jeff Hoffman, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Tim Melville, Tyler Anderson, Chad Bettis and Rico Garcia combined for woeful numbers across a combined 83 starts. So what have the Rockies done since to address their starting group? Nothing of note. It seems they’ll count on a bunch of their holdovers to turn in better showings, though their staff will take a big hit in the event they deal Gray (a potential trade candidate) before the season.

Los Angeles Angels (5.64 ERA/5.41 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Angels’ rotation suffered a terrible blow in the fall of 2018 when Shohei Ohtani underwent Tommy John surgery, costing him all of last season, and then tragedy struck last July when Tyler Skaggs passed away. Considering the circumstances, it’s not surprising the Angels’ staff reeled last season. Nevertheless, adding reinforcements was clearly in order for this winter. The problem is that the Angels still haven’t found a way to acquire a proven front-of-the-rotation type, which many expected to them to get when the winter began. Ohtani’s back, which is a major plus. Meanwhile, the acquisitions of innings-eaters Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran should help matters, but they’re not going to frighten opposing offenses. The Angels figure to keep trying to better their rotation in the coming months, though the open market has dried up and teams seemingly aren’t champing at the bit to move big-time starters via trade now.

Baltimore Orioles (5.57 ERA/5.72 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Bundy, who led the O’s rotation in innings last season, is now gone. 2019 success story John Means remains in place, and Alex Cobb will be back in the wake of injuries that limited him to three starts. Those two aside, there’s little in the way of established starters for rebuilding Baltimore, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see the club try to find a cheap starter(s) in free agency before the season begins. The team did make an interesting move when it used the second pick of the Rule 5 Draft on 25-year-old righty Brandon Bailey, whom Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs calls a “spin rate monster.”

Detroit Tigers (5.51 ERA/4.66 FIP; current depth chart)

  • Detroit’s rotation mix actually looks pretty promising, though it’s possible the team will weaken the mix by trading Matthew Boyd before the season. As of now, he’s back at the helm of a group that also got respectable performances from Spencer Turnbull and Daniel Norris last year. Stud prospects Casey Mize and Matt Manning are gaining on the majors, meanwhile, and Michael Fulmer should factor back in sometime this year after Tommy John surgery kept him away in 2019. Furthermore, the Tigers just signed the durable Ivan Nova to a cheap contract to serve as their resident back-end innings-eater. Jordan Zimmerman, arguably the weakest link in the chain, is also the most expensive. Mercifully for the Tigers, he’s finally entering the last season of what has been an albatross contract for the club.

Pittsburgh Pirates (5.19 ERA/4.78 FIP; current depth chart)

  • The Pirates, already without staff leader Jameson Taillon for most of last season, suffered a horrid blow when he underwent a TJ procedure in August. He won’t be part of the 2020 staff as a result, leaving holdovers Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams at the helm of an uninspiring-looking bunch. Barring a trade, the hope is that the once-terrific Archer will put a nightmarish first year and a half as a Pirate behind him. Archer was markedly better as last season progressed, so there does seem to be some hope for a full-season bounce-back effort. The unit will include some speculative candidates in Tommy John rehabber Chad Kuhl and talented 23-year-old Mitch Keller, who struggled as a rookie but remains a premium pitching prospect.

The original version of this post mistakenly indicated that Kuhl underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019. His procedure occurred in September of 2018.

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