MLBTR is holding live chats specific to each of the 30 teams as the offseason nears. In conjunction with the offseason outlook for the Rockies, Anthony Franco held a Rockies-centric chat. Click here to view the transcript.
Rockies Rumors
Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies
As has been the case for a few seasons, the Rockies underperformed internal expectations. While owner Dick Monfort said before Opening Day he felt the team could hover around .500, they’re instead headed for the first 100-loss season in franchise history. It can’t be fixed in one offseason, though Colorado will at least need to patch together a more competitive pitching staff if they’re to improve on this year’s NL-worst showing.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Kris Bryant, RF: $131MM through 2028
- Ryan McMahon, 3B: $56MM through 2027
- Kyle Freeland, LHP: $47MM through 2026
- Antonio Senzatela, RHP: $36MM through 2026 (deal includes ’27 club option)
- Germán Márquez, RHP: $20MM through 2025
- Daniel Bard, RHP: $9.5MM through 2024
- Elias Díaz, C: $6MM through 2024
- Tyler Kinley, RHP: $5.05MM through 2025 (including buyout of ’26 club option)
Additional Financial Commitments
- Owe Cardinals $5MM annually through 2025 as part of the Nolan Arenado trade
- Owe $500K buyout to released RHP José Ureña
Option Decisions
- None
Total 2024 commitments: $98.3MM
Total future commitments: $321.05MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players
Non-tender candidates: Wynns, Castro, Lambert, Blach
Free Agents
The Rockies have missed the playoffs in five consecutive seasons. They’re on their way to a bottom-three record in the majors, which will tie them with Oakland and Kansas City for the highest odds of securing the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft. Colorado hasn’t chosen to rebuild in the same way as some of the other worst teams in the majors, but they’ve had rebuilding results.
On any team that loses 100 games, there are a lot of weak points on the roster. None is quite as stark as the rotation. Colorado has had seven starters log 50+ innings this season. Only Peter Lambert (4.50 ERA) has allowed fewer than five earned runs per nine in that time, and he has struggled as a reliever. Even in the context of Coors Field, that’s untenable.
Kyle Freeland is assured of a spot in next year’s rotation. It’s hard to lock in anyone else. Austin Gomber logged 27 starts and 139 innings but posted a 5.50 ERA with a well below-average 14.4% strikeout rate. Antonio Senzatela underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-July and could miss the entire 2024 season.
Germán Márquez also underwent TJS midway through the ’23 campaign. Colorado and Márquez agreed to a two-year, $20MM extension last month that’ll keep him from hitting free agency. That’s a sensible move for the team — if Márquez recaptures his pre-surgery form, he’d be a strong bargain on a $10MM salary in 2025 — but it won’t help the rotation until at least late into next season.
Colorado has relied on a host of depth call-ups and journeymen to plug the back end of the staff with predictable results. Chris Flexen (6.46 ERA) and Chase Anderson (6.13) will be free agents. The Rox could bring either player back at little financial cost, though neither should be guaranteed a spot in the season-opening starting five. Noah Davis, Connor Seabold, Ryan Feltner and Lambert are under club control but better suited for depth roles. Former first-round pick Ryan Rolison has yet to make his MLB debut because of persistent shoulder injuries.
The Rox will need to turn to various avenues of acquisition to add competition. They’re unlikely to play at the top of the free agent market but could target the third or fourth tier — names like Kyle Gibson, Wade Miley or Martín Pérez. Pitching at Coors Field would be a tough sell for a pitcher trying to rebuild his value, but they could try to dangle a guaranteed rotation spot and a decent one-year salary for a rebound flier like Jake Odorizzi or Noah Syndergaard.
It’s a similar story on the trade market. Colorado is in no position to deal controllable talent for shorter-term MLB help. They could still roll the dice on a depth option or two who are squeezed out of another organization, as they did in sending cash to the Red Sox for Seabold last winter.
The bullpen isn’t good, though it’s in comparatively better shape than the rotation. Grounder specialist Jake Bird and hard-throwing righty Justin Lawrence have had impressive 2023 campaigns. Former closer Daniel Bard, whose ’23 season has been derailed by anxiety issues that contributed to significant strike-throwing woes, will probably get a middle innings spot since he’s under contract for $9.5MM.
They’ll count on a full season from Tyler Kinley, who has been limited to 15 appearances after rehabbing from last year’s elbow surgery. While Kinley’s ’23 results are middling, he had a 0.75 ERA in 25 outings before the injury a season ago. He clearly won’t maintain that pace over a full season, but the Rockies can expect better numbers than he has managed in his limited work this year after a healthy offseason.
That group skews heavily toward the right side. Brent Suter, the only southpaw in the late-season bullpen, is an impending free agent. Suter has acclimated well to Coors Field after being claimed off waivers last November, turning in a 3.51 ERA across 66 2/3 frames. General manager Bill Schmidt said before the trade deadline the team could try to keep Suter around for another season or two on an extension. If Suter signs elsewhere, they’ll likely bring in a similar low-cost southpaw via free agency.
Schmidt has also expressed interest in a new deal with Colorado’s top impending free agent: Charlie Blackmon. The 37-year-old indicated last month he was interested in returning for a 14th big league season. The career-long Rockie suggested his preference was to stick in Colorado despite leaving open the possibility of playing elsewhere if the Rox didn’t reciprocate that interest.
Blackmon is no longer an everyday outfielder. He’s still a solid role player who contributes in a right field/designated hitter capacity. The left-handed hitter owns a .276/.367/.432 line across 387 trips to the plate. While his power numbers are down, he’s very tough to strike out and has walked at a career-high 10.1% clip. If Blackmon is willing to accept a pay cut from $15MM to around $5-7MM, the Rockies could try to keep him around.
Colorado already has a few corner outfield/DH hybrids on the roster. Rookie Nolan Jones has arguably been the team’s best performer this season. Acquired from the Guardians for middle infield prospect Juan Brito last November, the lefty-swinging Jones has 17 homers with a .286/.382/.531 slash through 393 trips to the plate. He’s unlikely to continue hitting over .280 unless he cuts his strikeouts from the current 29.8% rate. Still, Jones has demonstrated that his power and plate discipline can play against big league pitching. He’ll be an everyday player, likely in left field.
That’s where Kris Bryant began the season. Colorado’s $182MM signee again suffered through an injury-plagued year, getting into 77 games to date. He has mostly played first base since returning from a broken finger a couple weeks ago. There’s no question Bryant will get a chance to play regularly at the start of next season. Whether that’s at first base or in right field could be determined by whether they retain Blackmon.
Colorado could look for a short-term upgrade in center field. Brenton Doyle has played stellar defense but hasn’t hit at all as a rookie. The 25-year-old has a .198/.249/.322 line while striking out almost 35% of the time in his first 119 contests. Most of the free agents at the position are glove-first veterans, which could be redundant given Doyle’s skillset. Someone like Adam Duvall or Joey Gallo would offer more offensive upside than Doyle and could kick over to right field when the club wants a defense-heavy alignment.
The infield is more set in stone, at least aside from first base. Brendan Rodgers should get another chance at second base after his ’23 campaign was derailed by a Spring Training shoulder dislocation. Ryan McMahon is locked in at third base, where he’s an elite defender. McMahon pairs that with decent offense and is arguably the Rockies’ best overall player.
Ezequiel Tovar will be back at shortstop after a mixed rookie season. He’s one of the most aggressive hitters in the majors, with his swing-heavy approach keeping him to a meager .293 on-base percentage. Yet Tovar has rated as an excellent defensive shortstop and has connected on 15 home runs. He just turned 22 and is surely still seen as a key piece of the future. Aside from perhaps upgrading on Harold Castro as the utility option, the bulk of the infield is established.
First base could be the exception, depending upon the club’s plans with Bryant. Neither Elehuris Montero nor Michael Toglia took hold of the job. If they wanted to add to the mix, they could turn to a rebound free agent (e.g. Ji Man Choi or Garrett Cooper) or look into a non-tender candidate like Rowdy Tellez.
All-Star Game MVP Elias Díaz has held the primary catching job. While his production has dropped off since the Midsummer Classic, the Rox probably have bigger concerns elsewhere. Díaz is due a $6MM salary in the final year of his contract next season. With a thin free agent class at the position, the Rockies could field some trade interest, though it’d probably be modest enough they won’t be motivated to make a move.
Players like McMahon and Rodgers have more appeal. There’s no indication the Rockies want to entertain moving either. McMahon is a key contributor who is signed for four more seasons. Rodgers has had a rough 2023 due primarily to those previously mentioned shoulder troubles, and to move him now would be selling low. With two seasons of remaining arbitration control, Colorado should probably hold him in hopes of a rebound year.
Colorado was a little more willing than they had been previously to deal off short-term assets at the trade deadline, moving impending free agents Pierce Johnson and Brad Hand. They’ve remained steadfastly opposed to a broader teardown. Their resolute belief the organization doesn’t need a major overhaul has extended to the manager chair. Colorado signed Bud Black to an extension in February; he’s under contract through 2024, which would be his eighth season at the helm.
The major league roster doesn’t offer much reason for optimism. No matter what they do this winter, they’re going to enter 2024 as the likely last-place team in the NL West. Hope for the longer-term outlook is rooted in a farm system that has improved in two-plus years under Schmidt.
Colorado has three prospects who appeared among Baseball America’s recent Top 50 minor league talents. Middle infielder Adael Amador and corner outfielder Yanquiel Fernandez have each reached Double-A at age 20. Ninth overall pick Chase Dollander is the highest-upside arm to enter the farm system in some time. They’ll secure another high draft choice next summer.
None of that group is likely to make much of an impact in 2024 and Colorado’s farm system is still middle-of-the-pack unit overall. Yet it’s at least possible to envision a competitive group of position players emerging within the next few seasons, particularly if Tovar takes a step forward in his second big league campaign. On the other hand, the long-term pitching outlook is still very questionable.
Colorado’s payroll picture isn’t quite as bleak as it was six months ago. The bulk of the money in the Nolan Arenado trade has finally been paid out, with Colorado’s remaining commitments consisting of $5MM annually over the next two seasons. Blackmon’s salary would drop if he returns; C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk are off the books.
The organization looks a little better off than it did at this time last winter. It’s a slow process, though, one that looks likely to lead to a modest offseason and another poor record in 2024.
In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Rockies-centric chat on 9-25-23. Click here to view the transcript.
Injury Notes: Correa, Kim, Feltner, Gallegos
Carlos Correa exited Monday night’s game against the Reds in the first inning following a flare-up of his plantar fasciitis. The shortstop told reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com) that he felt a tweak in his heel as he ran to catch a pop fly.
Correa has been playing through the painful condition throughout most of the season. He was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis and a muscle strain in his left foot arch back in May but has avoided a trip to the injured list thus far. The two-time All-Star suggested he could sit out a few games to preserve his body for the playoffs, although he emphasized that neither he nor the Twins have determined a course of action just yet. He acknowledged that time off his feet would do him some good, but even so, he might prefer to keep playing until Minnesota has officially clinched the AL Central crown.
The 28-year-old is in the midst of a down year, slashing just .230/.312/.399. His injury could certainly be responsible for his dip in production, in which case a few days of rest would make even more sense. The Twins are all but certain to reach October, and now is the time for Correa to focus on restoring his health. That being said, it’s understandable why he’d want to take the field every day down the stretch. As the most accomplished and highest-paid player on the roster, the 2017 World Series champion has a leadership role to play in the Twins’ clubhouse.
In other injury news around baseball:
- Ha-Seong Kim sits out a second straight game, as he continues to deal with discomfort in his abdomen. The Padres infielder told reporters, including Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune, that he isn’t sure why he feels so unwell, and he’s waiting on test results that he hopes will reveal the cause. Kim has been a bright spot in a difficult season for San Diego, hitting 17 home runs, stealing 36 bases, and playing excellent defense all around the infield. Unfortunately, he has been slumping as of late, with a .204/.291/.282 slash-line over the past month; it’s unclear if his slump has anything to do with his abdominal pain.
- The Rockies are preparing to reinstate starting pitcher Ryan Feltner ahead of Tuesday’s contest with the Padres, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com. Feltner has been on the 60-day IL since late May, as he recovered from a concussion and a fractured skull. The Rockies have an open spot on their 40-man roster, so they can reinstate the righty without making a corresponding move. However, they’ll still need to free up a spot for him on the active roster. Feltner was off to a rough start in 2023 (5.86 ERA in eight starts) even before a liner off the bat of Nick Castellanos nearly ended his season. Suffice it to say, it’s remarkable that he’ll be returning to the field after such a scary injury.
- The Cardinals have placed Giovanny Gallegos on the 15-day IL with right shoulder rotator cuff tendonitis. Jake Woodford was recalled from Triple-A to take his spot on the active roster. The team told reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) that the injury doesn’t seem serious, but they’re playing it extra safe as the season draws to a close. Indeed, they might have shut the righty down even sooner, but Gallegos wanted to ensure that he had properly addressed the pitch tipping issues he was having earlier in the season.
Rockies Place Kyle Freeland On 15-Day Injured List
- The Rockies placed left-hander Kyle Freeland on the 15-day injured list today due to a right oblique strain, so Freeland won’t pitch again during the 2023 season. The oblique injury forced Freeland to make an early exit from Saturday’s game, and continued the season-long string of pitching injuries that has devastated the Rockies’ staff. It was a frustrating year overall for the veteran southpaw, who posted a 5.03 ERA and one of the sport’s lowest strikeout rates (13.9%) over 155 2/3 innings.
Rockies Injuries: Freeland, Lambert
- The Rockies’ seemingly nonstop flood of pitching injuries has continued today, with Kyle Freeland leaving today’s start after three innings due to what the club later announced as a mild right oblique strain. This came after Colorado already placed right-hander Peter Lambert on the 15-day IL prior to their doubleheader with the Giants, as Lambert is suffering from right biceps tendinitis. Lambert has a 5.36 ERA over 87 1/3 innings this year, after missing most of the previous three seasons due to injuries. Freeland has a 5.07 ERA and he leads the Rox with 155 2/3 innings pitched, though he also previously missed a bit of time on the IL with a minor shoulder issue in July. It is safe to assume that Lambert’s 2023 campaign is over, and Freeland is also probably done for the year unless his oblique strain ends up being very minor.
Justin Lawrence Day-To-Day With Ankle Injury
Rockies reliever Justin Lawrence was removed from Friday night’s contest against the Giants with an injury to his left ankle. He was able to walk off the field, and following the game, manager Bud Black told reporters from MLB.com that Lawrence was likely to avoid a trip to the IL. That’s good news for the Rockies, who have dealt with more than their fair share of pitching injuries this year.
As Patrick Lyons of DNVR Rockies pointed out on Twitter, the team has already tied their franchise record for most starting pitchers used in a season. Starters Antonio Senzatela, Germán Márquez, Kyle Freeland, Austin Gomber, Chase Anderson, and Ryan Feltner have all spent time on the IL. So too have several notable relievers, including Daniel Bard, Brent Suter, Lucas Gilbreath, Tyler Kinley, and Nick Mears.
Overall, Rockies pitchers have the worst ERA in the sport. That’s not entirely surprising, considering they play in such a hitter-friendly stadium, but even park-adjusted statistics paint a dismal picture of Colorado’s pitching staff. They rank last in the majors with a 4.92 SIERA.
Lawrence has been one of the few bright spots for Colorado this season. He ranks second on the team with a 3.95 ERA (min. 40 IP) and third with 1.1 FanGraphs WAR. He has recorded 11 saves and given up just four home runs in 62 appearances out of the bullpen. His performance this year represents a marked improvement over his first two seasons; from 2021-22, he pitched to a 6.52 ERA in 57 games.
That said, the 28-year-old righty has run into a rough patch as of late. On August 15, he allowed five runs on seven hits in a disastrous ninth inning, blowing a save and taking the loss. He hasn’t seemed quite the same ever since, pitching to a 7.00 ERA and 5.15 SIERA over his last 11 games. If his ankle injury is indeed as minor as it seems, it could give him a chance to take a brief rest and reset before returning to the mound for the end of the season.
Rockies Outright Cole Tucker
For the second time this season, Rockies infielder/outfielder Cole Tucker went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Albuquerque, per the transaction log at MiLB.com. Tucker was designated for assignment earlier in the week. Because he’s already been outrighted once, he’ll have the option of rejecting this assignment in favor of free agency.
The 27-year-old Tucker joined the Rockies on a minor league deal over the winter and has twice been selected to the Majors, though he’s only tallied 10 plate appearances (during which he’s gone 4-for-8 with a walk and a hit by pitch). He’s spent the rest of the season in Albuquerque, where’s he’s appeared in 70 games and batted .280/.391/.407 in 321 plate appearances.
Selected by the Pirates with the No. 24 overall pick back in 2014, Tucker was considered one of Pittsburgh’s top prospects for the better part of five years but has yet to put things together in the Majors. He’s played in 159 big league games and tallied 479 plate appearances across parts of five seasons, but he has just a .216/.266/.318 batting line to show for it. His .250/.350/.382 batting line in four Triple-A campaigns is a clear improvement but still doesn’t stand out in and of itself. Tucker had top-of-the-scale sprint speed when he debuted in 2019 (90th percentile of MLB players, per Statcast). He’s slowed a bit, dropping from an average of 28.8 feet per second to 28.3 ft/sec, but that’s still good enough to rank in the 75th percentile of MLB players.
Tucker has primarily been a shortstop in his professional career, with more than 5500 innings at the position (including his minor league work). The Pirates and Rockies began bouncing him to other positions in recent years in order to improve his versatility. He’s since logged at least 375 innings at each of second base, center field and right field, with briefer stints at first base, third base and in left field.
MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Free Agent Class Preview: Catcher and First Base, Márquez Extension and the Dodgers’ Rotation
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:
- Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: Catcher (0:50)
- Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: First Base (4:40)
- Rockies Extend Germán Márquez (7:00)
- Walker Buehler won’t return as the rotation challenges continue for the Dodgers (12:30)
Plus, we answer your questions, including:
- What can the Tigers do about Spencer Turnbull? (16:45)
- Will the Athletics change their spending habits after they move to Las Vegas? (22:00)
- Why is the American League Central always so bad and will that ever change? (25:45)
Check out our past episodes!
- Waiver Claim Fallout, September Call-Ups and the Biggest Strength of Each Playoff Contender – listen here
- MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Shohei Ohtani’s Torn UCL, Free Agent Power Rankings and Stephen Strasburg to Retire – listen here
- The White Sox Fire Their Front Office, Injured Rays and Prospect Promotion Time – listen here
Rockies Designate Cole Tucker For Assignment
The Rockies have reinstated outfielder Kris Bryant from the 10-day injured list, per Patrick Lyons of DNVR, with infielder/outfielder Cole Tucker designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
Signed to a seven-year, $182MM contract going into 2022, Bryant hasn’t been able to get into a groove at any point over the past two seasons. He was limited to just 42 games last year due to various injuries and has played in just 65 so far this season, having missed time due to a heel bruise and finger fracture.
It will be important for him and the Rockies to get him healthy and in a good place going forward, with five years still remaining on the deal. There’s little left to play for this year since the club is 51-91 and in the bottom of the National League but Bryant will have a few weeks to get some at-bats before the winter. He’s hit .251/.338/.379 around his injuries this year but had a stronger showing last year with a line of .306/.376/.475.
Tucker, 27, signed a minor league deal with the Rockies in the winter and has bounced on and off their roster lately. He was selected in early August but was designated for assignment just a week later. He accepted an outright assignment after clearing waivers and was added back to the roster last week but has now been removed again.
He managed to get 10 plate appearances in five games around those transactions, getting four singles, a walk and one hit-by-pitch. He’s hit .280/.391/.407 in Triple-A this year, good enough for a wRC+ of 101 in the Pacific Coast League. Once a highly-touted prospect, he hasn’t been able to have consistent major league success, having slashed .216/.266/.318 in 479 big league plate appearances.
The Rockies will now place Tucker on waivers in the coming days, since the trade deadline has long passed. It’s possible that he again clears waivers and accepts an assignment to Albuquerque, the same sequence of events that happened last month, though that will be determined in due time.
Rockies Extend Germán Márquez
The Rockies took a step toward solidifying their rotation on Friday afternoon, announcing a two-year extension with starting pitcher Germán Márquez. The deal, which spans the 2024-25 seasons, guarantees him $20MM. Márquez, a client of L.A. Sports Management, will receive $10MM annually over the next two seasons.
The deal also contains up to $10MM in additional incentives. Márquez would reportedly receive $2MM bonuses for spending 30 and 60 days on the MLB roster during the 2025 season. He’d trigger additional $2MM bonuses at each of 140, 150, and 160 innings pitched. The contract also contains a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade.
“Germán has been an integral part of the Rockies organization both on and off the field since his first Major League season in 2016.” Rockies senior vice president and general manager Bill Schmidt said in the team’s press release. “We are excited to secure Germán’s future in Denver with this extension and can’t wait to see him back out on the mound.”
The 2023 season was the last guaranteed year on Márquez’s contract. Colorado had a $16MM option for next season, though they were likely to opt for a $2.5MM buyout. Márquez underwent Tommy John surgery in May, meaning he won’t be back until mid-2024 at the earliest. Now, he will remain with the Rockies for at least two more years, allowing him to rehab with an eye towards late next season and beyond.
Márquez has been in the Rockies organization since 2016, when the team acquired him in a trade with the Rays. He made his MLB debut that September and pitched his first full season the following year, posting a 4.39 ERA in 162 innings pitched en route to a fifth-place finish for NL Rookie of the Year. Over the next four seasons, he was one of the most durable pitchers in the league. From 2017-22, only three pitchers made more starts than Márquez: Gerrit Cole, Patrick Corbin, and Aaron Nola. Prior to this season, he had spent only one stint on the injured list in his big league career.
If Márquez suffers no setbacks and quickly shakes off the rust in his return, the terms of the extension seem perfectly reasonable. Colorado is offering more up-front security than Márquez would’ve gotten had they bought him out, while the $10MM salary for the ’25 campaign could be strong value for the club if Márquez recaptures his pre-surgery form.
Colorado now has three veteran starters under contract through 2025. Kyle Freeland is signed through 2026, with a vesting option for 2027. Meanwhile, Antonio Senzatela is signed through 2026 with a team option for 2027. Senzatela recently underwent a Tommy John procedure of his own. The Rockies will hope to have Márquez and Senzatela back to anchor the rotation alongside Freeland at some point in 2024.
MLBTR’s Steve Adams first reported Márquez was signing a two-year, $20MM guarantee with $10MM in incentives. Thomas Harding of MLB.com reported the specific incentive structure.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
