MLBTR Podcast: Lots Of Extensions And Big-Picture Topics
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Mariners signing an extension with Colt Emerson (1:20)
- The Brewers agreeing to an extension with Cooper Pratt (19:05)
- The Orioles signing an extension with Shane Baz (28:40)
- The Cubs signing extensions with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner (38:00)
- Free agents coming from Japan getting less than expected this offseason (53:35)
- The Tarik Skubal arbitration decision potentially being a paradigm shift (59:15)
- The economics of the game with the collective bargaining agreement expiring in less than a year (1:05:50)
- Did the short-term deals for Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette signal a new trend? (1:22:45)
- Dealing with high-spending clubs with draft pick penalties instead of financial penalties (1:31:00)
- Can the Brewers continue to win after trading away some valuable guys? (1:38:10)
- The exciting crop of 2026 rookies (1:41:15)
- Can the Pirates push into contention in a crowded NL Central? (1:43:40)
- The excitement around the introduction of the ABS system (1:44:50)
Check out our past episodes!
- The PCA and Sanchez Extensions, And Prospect Promotions And Reassignments – listen here
- Banged-Up Reds And Braves, Kevin McGonigle, And Spring Breakouts – listen here
- Jesús Luzardo’s Extension, Atlanta’s Depth, And Zack Littell – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images
Poll: Which Recent Cubs Extension Will Age Better?
The Cubs have made a huge splash on the extension front over the past week by locking up a pair of their core position players long-term. Center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and second baseman Nico Hoerner have signed extensions that will keep them in Chicago through the end of the 2032 season. It’s an exciting development for fans on the North Side. With the team’s recent addition of Alex Bregman plus players like Michael Busch and Dansby Swanson already under long-term control, the Cubs now have a core of position players to build around for the next several years.
That came at a price. Crow-Armstrong’s deal guarantees him $115MM and could climb another $18MM based on his MVP finishes. Hoerner’s deal is even more substantial, guaranteeing him $141MM (although deferred money lowers the net present value slightly to $137.5MM). Those are significant investments and big bets on the pair to continue performing after they turned in career years in 2025. Which one is more likely to live up to those expectations?
The case for Crow-Armstrong is one rooted in his youth and massive upside. His season-long stats in 2025 (including a 109 wRC+, 31 homers, 35 steals, and 6.0 bWAR/5.4 fWAR) could be argued to actually register as a bit of a disappointment based on what he did in the first half, when he was a legitimate early contender for the NL MVP award. 25 of those home runs and 27 of those steals came before the All-Star break, at which point he was slashing a sensational .265/.302/.544. A deep slump throughout August and September raised some concerns, however, as he hit just .188/.237/.295 over the season’s final two months. Crow-Armstrong’s speed and defense are enough to make him a viable major league player even when he’s flirting with the Mendoza line, but he’ll need to do a lot better than that to justify a nine-figure deal.
Can he find the consistency necessary to make the deal a good one? There’s certainly reasons to think so. While Crow-Armstrong struggled in terms of results down the stretch last year, he actually improved his plate discipline somewhat. His 35.6% out-of-zone swing rate and 86.2% in-zone contact rate since August 1 were both better than his season-long figures of 41.9% and 84.0%, respectively. Crow-Armstrong’s struggles late in the 2026 campaign were more about a power outage than an increase in poor swing decisions. If he can carry those improved swing decisions into the future while tapping into his first-half power, he’ll be a superstar. If his first-half power surge proves to be more of a flash in the pan than something sustainable, it’s possible the Cubs could wind up regretting the deal.
By contrast, Hoerner is a much more consistent player with a well-established track record. Since becoming an everyday player in 2022, Hoerner has hit .284/.339/.389 (105 wRC+) overall. He’s been remarkably consistent year-to-year, as well. His wRC+ has always fallen between 102 and 109, and he’s stolen at least 20 bases every season. After injury woes early in his career, he’s become a reliable presence on the field with at least 640 plate appearances in each of the past three years. He pairs that consistency and availability with superb defense that’s won him two Gold Gloves at the keystone and allowed him to post between 3.8 and 4.8 fWAR (3.7 and 6.2 bWAR) in each of his seasons as a regular.
That profile also comes with limited offensive upside, however. If there’s another gear to Hoerner’s game, it could be proving that his career-best 7.6% strikeout rate from 2025 is repeatable. Hoerner has a career strikeout rate of just 11.0%, so he’s a good bet to make contact at an elite rate in any year, but last season saw him punch out just 49 times total. Luis Arraez, Andrelton Simmons, and Kevin Newman are the only other players to strike out fewer than 50 times in a season where they recorded at least 550 plate appearances since 2015. Outside of that, however, Hoerner seems unlikely to take a step into MVP-candidate territory.
$141MM is a lot to spend on a player who doesn’t make much of a power impact. The fact that Hoerner will finish his contract at the end of his age-35 season while Crow-Armstrong will be wrapping up his age-30 campaign offers additional reasons for skepticism that Hoerner will be able to outproduce Crow-Armstrong. Another question is about health. Crow-Armstrong has not suffered a major injury since arriving in the majors, while Hoerner (despite his iron man status in the past few seasons) dealt with forearm, hamstring, oblique, ankle, and knee issues early in his career that stand as warning signs as he enters his 30s.
What do MLBTR readers think of Chicago’s recent pair of extensions? Which deal will be looked back on as the better investment when all is said and done? Will Crow-Armstrong’s youth and upside lead to a big win for the Cubs, or will he be unable to match the stability and consistency that Hoerner figures to provide? Will Hoerner stay healthy and stave off age-related decline for long enough to provide that stability throughout the deal? Have your say in the poll below:
Which Cubs player will be more productive through the end of the 2032 season?
Cubs, Nico Hoerner Agree To Extension
The Cubs and infielder Nico Hoerner have agreed to a six-year contract extension. Hoerner was slated for free agency after this year, with 2026 being the final season of his previous extension. Hoerner will make $141MM as part of his new deal, which starts in 2027 and will cover Hoerner’s age-30 to age-35 seasons before concluding in 2032. The Apex Baseball client receives a $5MM signing bonus as part of the deal, which also includes a full no-trade clause.
He will make $23MM per year in 2027 and 2028, then $22.5MM per year from 2029 through 2032. $2.5MM of Hoerner’s annual salary in the 2029-32 seasons is deferred. The deferred money in the deal knocks the net present value down to $137.5MM.
Hoerner’s pact is in the range of free agent deals for middle infielders. Trevor Story and Javier Báez each got $140MM over six. Hoerner just barely goes past those two, while coming in a bit under Marcus Semien‘s $175MM, Swanson’s $177MM and Willy Adames‘s $182MM, which were all seven-year deals.
Hoerner, 29 in May, has been the a key part of the Cubs for several years now. He doesn’t have a ton of power but provides strong offense with a consistent contact approach. Dating back to the start of 2022, he has almost 2500 plate appearances. His 6.4% walk rate and 10.2% strikeout rate are both well below league average. He only has 33 home runs in that time. But the contact approach has resulted in a .284/.339/.389 line and 105 wRC+ for that span. He finished each of those four seasons with a wRC+ from 102 to 109.
He combines that offense with strong attributes in other facets of his game. He has stolen 123 bases in that four-year span, with at least 20 in each season. Defensively, he is considered to be good enough to handle shortstop but has been bumped to the other side of the bag by the presence of Dansby Swanson. That has made him one of the best defensive second basemen in the league. Dating back to the start of 2023, the year he moved to second base, he has 32 Defensive Runs Saved and 35 Outs Above Average. The DRS total is behind only Andrés Giménez and Brice Turang, while the OAA number is behind only Giménez and Marcus Semien.
The combination is a valuable one. FanGraphs has credited him with a little more than four wins above replacement per year for a total of 17.4 fWAR since the start of 2022. He didn’t finish any of those four seasons lower than 3.8 fWAR.
Three years ago, the Cubs and Hoerner agreed to their first extension, a three-year deal worth $35MM. That was a bit of an odd deal, as it bought out Hoerner’s two arbitration seasons and then just one free agent year. Hoerner delayed his path to the open market for a relatively modest price.
As that deal played out, Hoerner became a plausible trade candidate for a few reasons. For one, he was getting closer to free agency, which often leads to increased trade speculation with many players. The Cubs also had some infield prospects pushing towards the majors, with Matt Shaw making his major league debut last year. The Cubs could have traded Hoerner to address another area of the roster, then put Shaw at second base. Given that another club could have put Hoerner at shortstop, perhaps that would have increased the trade return.
Instead, the Cubs are locking in another piece of their core. Third baseman Alex Bregman is signed through 2030 and Swanson through 2029. They agreed to a long-term deal with Pete Crow-Armstrong just a few days ago, so he’s going to be signed through 2032. Assuming this Hoerner deal starts in 2027, it will also run through 2032.
After 2026, the Cubs were facing a potentially huge amount of roster turnover. Hoerner, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Hoby Milner, Dylan Carlson, Michael Conforto and Tyler Austin are all impending free agents. Matthew Boyd, Hunter Harvey, Carson Kelly and Caleb Thielbar all have mutual options for 2027 but those are almost never picked up by both sides, so they should all be considered impending free agents as well. That is still something the club will have to plan for but locking in Hoerner takes one thing off the to-do list.
One player who could be impacted by this deal is Shaw. He played third base last year but the Bregman signing bumped him into a utility role for 2026. With Hoerner’s impending free agency, it was possible to imagine that being a one-year arrangement, as Shaw could then take over at the keystone starting in 2027. That’s no longer possible.
Shaw is going to be playing some outfield this year, so perhaps he could take over a corner next year with the impending departures of Happ and Suzuki, though that depends on him proving viable on the grass. He is still under club control for six seasons, so it’s also possible to imagine him being a future trade chip, if he could find a better path to infield playing time with another club.
Hoerner would have made for a fascinating free agent case. Second basemen normally don’t get massive paychecks in free agency but Hoerner could have marketed himself as a shortstop and perhaps some clubs would have viewed him as one. Teams also normally pay more for power than contact. A speed-and-defense profile can get paid but it’s also risky since those attributes fade over time. It would have been a unique free agency test case but that’s moot now.
The 2026-27 free agent class is particularly light in terms of hitters. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a look at the group in a post for Front Office subscribers. While recent offseasons have had clear standout bats like Corey Seager, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker, the upcoming winter doesn’t quite have that kind of star power. Franco highlighted Bo Bichette, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trent Grisham, Daulton Varsho and Hoerner as the top position players in the class.
Hoerner certainly would not have been the best hitter in that bunch but the speed and defense put him up there in terms of overall value. Teams looking for middle infield help next winter will have to cross one name off what was already a somewhat flimsy list.
As of this writing, the numbers on the deal have not been reported. That makes it difficult to assess the long-term impact for the Cubs. What can be said is that they do have a good amount of payroll space available in the future. As mentioned, they have long-term commitments to Swanson, Bregman and Crow-Armstrong but that’s essentially it. Phil Maton and Shelby Miller are the only other players with guaranteed deals for 2027. By 2028, it’s just Bregman, Swanson and Crow-Armstrong.
Photos courtesy of Michael McLoone, David Banks, Imagn Images
Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation was first to report that Hoerner and the Cubs had an agreement in place. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported that the deal was for six seasons, while Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the $141MM guarantee. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that there was deferred money in the deal, while Joel Sherman of The New York Post first reported the contract breakdown. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first to report that the deal includes a full no-trade clause.
Cubs Outright Jack Neely
The Cubs have outrighted right-hander Jack Neely to Triple-A, according to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. Neely was designated for assignment by the club prior to Opening Day in a move that made room for Michael Conforto on the team’s 40-man roster.
Neely, 25, was acquired from the Yankees at the 2024 trade deadline in exchange for Mark Leiter Jr. alongside Ben Cowles. The right-hander made his big league debut with Chicago down the stretch that year but struggled with a 9.00 ERA in six appearances despite a respectable 25.0% strikeout rate. His work in the minors during the 2023 and ’24 seasons had the look of a future staple of a big league bullpen, as his strikeout rate pushed 40% at the Double-A level. Unfortunately, his numbers fell off in a big way during the 2025 season. Neely struggled badly at the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate in Iowa and surrendered a 5.94 ERA in 33 1/3 innings of work. His 27.7% strikeout rate was solid, but it was overshadowed by a loss of control that resulted in a massive 18.1% walk rate.
Those numbers were unplayable enough that the Cubs did not turn to Neely in the majors at any point during the 2025 campaign, but his youth and prior minor league success was enough to convince them to keep him on the 40-man roster throughout the offseason. He looked much better in camp than he had during the prior year at Triple-A. He struck out 46.7% of batters faced in four scoreless appearances. That ultimately wasn’t enough to break camp in a crowded Cubs’ bullpen picture, however. At first, he seemed likely to head back to Triple-A as a depth option like Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Ryan Rolison and others, but when the team’s 40-man roster was squeezed by the need to add an extra bench bat following Seiya Suzuki‘s knee injury, Neely was the victim.
Now that the right-hander has cleared waivers unclaimed, the Cubs have outrighted him back to Triple-A. He’ll likely remain there for the rest of the season as non-roster bullpen depth for the Cubs, unless he gets added back to the 40-man roster and called up. Perhaps the 25-year-old will be able to post numbers more like his 2023-24 self and do just that, but if he fails to make the 40-man roster before the end of the year he’ll have the opportunity to elect minor league free agency following the season and sign with any of the league’s 30 clubs.
Jason Heyward Announces Retirement
After spending parts of 16 seasons in the majors, outfielder Jason Heyward is calling it a career. The five-time Gold Glove winner and 2016 World Series champion announced the end of his playing career this morning in an appearance on MLB Network (video link).
“After 16 major league seasons, I’m going to announce my retirement,” Heyward said. “I’m glad and happy to be stepping to the other side of the game. I look forward to being a potential mentor to any of the young players coming up — anybody that’s in the game right now. I feel like the game is in good hands. I look forward to being a fan and seeing what other ways I can give back. … Thank you to everybody that’s been there to support [me]. The fans, teammates, coaches, staff, ownership groups — thank you for allowing me to live out my dream.”
A Georgia native selected by Atlanta with the No. 14 overall draft pick back in 2007, Heyward debuted for his hometown Braves as a 20-year-old back in 2010. He entered that season ranked by Baseball America as the Game’s No. 1 overall prospect and wasted little time announcing his presence in the big leagues; with two men aboard in the first at-bat of his career, Heyward deposited a 2-0 fastball from Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano into the Braves’ bullpen and circled the bases with the first of his 186 major league home runs (video link).
Heyward hit .277/.393/.456 as a rookie and spent the next four seasons starring in his home state as a key force in the middle of the lineup. With Atlanta rebuilding in 2015 and Heyward only a year from free agency, the Braves flipped him to the Cardinals in a deal bringing young right-hander Shelby Miller to Atlanta.
That swap worked out nicely for both clubs. Heyward posted one of his best seasons with St. Louis in 2015, slashing .293/.359/.439 with elite defense. He rejected a qualifying offer following the season, and the Cardinals netted a compensatory draft pick. The Braves, meanwhile, got an All-Star season out of Miller before trading him to the D-backs for Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte.
Heyward went on to sign an eight-year, $184MM contract with the Cubs — a record deal for the team that still stands as the largest contract in franchise history. Though he’s credited for rallying the team during his now-infamous rain delay speech during Game 7 of the World Series, that eight-year commitment certainly didn’t pan out as the Cubs envisioned. He hit .230/.306/.325 in year one of the contract, and while his 2018-20 numbers were solid (.261/.347/.419), Heyward was released as the contract’s seventh year drew to a close. He won a pair of Gold Gloves in Chicago but batted only .245/.323/.377 in 2836 plate appearances as a Cub.
A 2023 pairing with the Dodgers brought about a resurgent season. Heyward, still playing out the eighth year of that Cubs contract (but in a different uniform) slashed .269/.340/.473 and popped 15 homers in 377 plate appearances with the Dodgers. He re-signed in L.A. but struggled, finishing the season with the Astros and eventually signing a one-year deal with the Padres ahead of the 2025 season. San Diego released him after 95 unproductive plate appearances.
Though Heyward never developed into the offensive force most expected, he finished his career with a lifetime .255/.306/.408 batting line — about four percent better than league-average production, by measure of wRC+. He swatted 186 home runs, swiped 126 bases and tallied 306 doubles, 41 triples, 879 runs scored and 730 runs batted in.
It’s often easy to understate just how excellent Heyward was with the glove. He won five Gold Gloves in his career and very arguably should have won more. He has the sixth-most Defensive Runs Saved (159) of any player at any position since the stat was introduced.
Thanks to his superlative defensive acumen, solid overall offense (looking at his career as a whole) and positive contributions on the basepaths, Heyward retires with 34.8 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, and 41.2 WAR by Baseball-Reference’s version of the stat. Not including his draft bonus, Heyward took home more than $211MM in salary. Focusing solely on his level of performance relative to the expectations associated with his free agent contract undersells the quality of Heyward’s play throughout his 16-year career. Few players ever achieve this level of accolade and production. Congratulations to Heyward on a very fine tenure in the big leagues, and best wishes in whatever the game has in store for him in the future.
8 Young Players Auditioning At New Positions
The 2026 season has gotten underway for all but six teams. The A's, Blue Jays, Braves, Royals, Rockies and Marlins will kick off their seasons today. The return of meaningful games has revealed or confirmed some usage plans.
There are a few veteran players who are known to be changing their primary positions this season -- in some cases sliding back to spots they've previously played. Brendan Donovan is moving over to third base to begin his Mariners tenure. The Marlins will play Christopher Morel at first base, while the Giants are giving Luis Arraez another chance to play second base. The Blue Jays are moving Andrés Giménez to shortstop after letting Bo Bichette walk. Mike Trout was back in center field for the Angels last night.
Positional movement is even more common for young players breaking in at the MLB level. Some well-regarded prospects are blocked at their natural positions and need to debut elsewhere. Others are moving down the defensive spectrum after struggling at their previous spots.
We'll run through some first- or second-year players taking on new defensive assignments to begin the year. They'll be worth monitoring to see how they take to unfamiliar spots on the diamond. For those who play fantasy baseball, this may also be an opportunity to get an early jump on players whose positional eligibility should expand within the first couple weeks of the season.
Jordan Lawlar, Diamondbacks, LF/CF
Lawlar was a full-time outfielder this spring, playing 14 games in center field and three in left. He made his regular season outfield debut as a left fielder last night. The D-Backs kept incumbent Alek Thomas in center, though they'll probably get Lawlar work up the middle as well. The 23-year-old made a nice play at the wall in his debut, taking a double away from Freddie Freeman in the process.
Throwing accuracy issues pushed Lawlar off third base at the end of the 2025 season. Arizona acquired Nolan Arenado to play alongside Geraldo Perdomo in what should be an excellent left side of the infield defensively. They need more offensive production out of the two outfield spots to the left of Corbin Carroll. Lawlar, a former No. 6 overall pick and .328/.414/.576 hitter in his Triple-A career, is going to get plenty of run out there.
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Poll: Who Will Win The NL Central?
With the 2026 season set to begin today, the offseason is now complete for MLB’s 30 teams. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. In the run-up to the start of the season, we will be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. The Blue Jays came out on top in the AL East, and the Tigers did the same in our poll on the AL Central, and the Mariners were predicted to win the AL West. Yesterday, MLBTR readers overwhelmingly voted (66%) to predict the Dodgers would win the NL West. Today, we’ll be moving on to the NL Central. All teams are listed in order of their 2025 regular season record:
Milwaukee Brewers (97-65)
The Brewers were the best team in baseball by regular season record last year. While their close NLDS matchup against their division rivals from Chicago and a demoralizing sweep at the hands of the Dodgers in the NLCS did little to answer questions about the club’s viability in October, they’ve won three straight division titles and haven’t finished a 162-game season with fewer than 86 wins since 2016. At some point, it becomes hard not to reward that consistency, and even after a winter where the club traded away Freddy Peralta, Isaac Collins, and Caleb Durbin without making any obviously impactful additions to the roster, it’s easy to imagine Milwaukee’s run of success continuing in 2026. Jackson Chourio is certainly capable of a breakout, and Jacob Misiorowski could make Brewers fans forget Peralta in a hurry if the flamethrowing righty takes a step forward.
Chicago Cubs (92-70)
The Cubs failed to win the division last season, lost to their division rivals in the ALDS, and watched superstar outfielder Kyle Tucker walk in free agency over the offseason. Despite all of that, however, Chicago is viewed by some around the game as the heavy favorite in the NL Central. That’s thanks to a busy offseason where they brought Alex Bregman into the organization and landed right-hander Edward Cabrera in trade. Those external additions, larger contributions from up-and-coming youngsters Moises Ballesteros and Cade Horton, and the healthy return of Justin Steele to the top of the club’s rotation should all help the Cubs make up for the loss of Tucker. The true x-factor for Chicago’s hopes in the division this year, however, will surely be the recently-extended Pete Crow-Armstrong. If he looks anything like he did in the first half of 2025, he should be in the MVP conversation and help lead the Cubs to new heights. If he’s more like his second half, however, the Cubs could find themselves on the outside looking in for what should be a competitive NL Central race this year.
Cincinnati Reds (83-79)
The Reds shocked many fans and analysts when they managed to squeak into the postseason last year, and this offseason saw them bring old friend Eugenio Suarez back into the fold to add some thump to a lineup that was lackluster for most of 2026. It was a strong addition to be sure, but the loss of both Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo for the start of the 2026 season will put a lot of pressure on young arms like Rhett Lowder, Chase Burns, and Brandon Williamson to carry the team in the early parts of the season. If the team’s youngsters can do that until Greene returns to his spot at the top of the rotation, perhaps Suarez and Elly De La Cruz can create enough offense to get the Reds to the postseason in more convincing fashion this year.
St. Louis Cardinals (78-84)
The Cardinals finally executed their long-teased rebuild this offseason, dealing away Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan, and Nolan Arenado in the span of three months. The resulting team has plenty of reasons for hope in the future, including star prospect JJ Wetherholt, but for the time being, it’s hard to see this club as anything other than the obvious weak link in the NL Central. A banner rookie season from Wetherholt would need to be combined with big steps forward for players like Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, and Matthew Liberatore alongside a rebound for Dustin May if there’s going to be any hope of playoff baseball in St. Louis this year. That’s a tall order to say the least, but players like Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera at least look like solid building blocks for the future.
Pittsburgh Pirates (71-91)
The Pirates may have finished fifth in the NL Central last year, but it would be a shock to see them do so again in 2026. They’re a popular darkhorse pick to even take the division this year, and it’s not hard to see why. Reigning NL Cy Young award winner Paul Skenes might be the best pitcher on the planet, and he’s backed up by a strong rotation that also includes Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller headed into 2026. Those pitchers will be supported by a completely rebuilt offense this year, as Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna, Ryan O’Hearn, and Jake Mangum are all in place to help boost a lineup that relied on Spencer Horwitz, Oneil Cruz, and Bryan Reynolds as its middle of the order bats last year. A bullpen that lost David Bednar at last year’s trade deadline but added Gregory Soto over the winter comes with some questions, and the team’s defense seems likely to leave something to be desired, but this is easily the most competitive the Pirates have been in a decade.
How do MLBTR readers think the NL Central will shake out this year? Will Milwaukee’s dominance continue despite dealing away Peralta and others? Will the Cubs take that extra step even after losing Kyle Tucker? Have the Pirates or Reds done enough to bridge the gap and push themselves into the conversation? Or will the Cardinals’ expected rebuilding phase end before it even begins? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will win the NL Central in 2026?
Cubs Place Justin Steele On 60-Day IL, Designate Jack Neely For Assignment
The Cubs announced that left-hander Justin Steele has been placed on the 60-day injured list and right-hander Jack Neely has been designated for assignment. Those moves open two 40-man spots for outfielder Michael Conforto and infielder/outfielder Scott Kingery. It had been reported in recent days that Conforto would make the team, with Kingery likely being added as well.
Steele is working back from last April’s UCL surgery. He has advanced to facing hitters in live batting practice sessions, according to the MLB.com injury tracker. The Cubs apparently don’t feel he’ll be ready for major league action within the first two months of the season, though. Steele could go on a minor league rehab assignment towards the end of April with an eye to making his season debut in late May.
Neely, a 25-year-old reliever, made six appearances late in the 2024 season. He gave up six runs in as many innings. A former 11th-round pick of the Yankees, he was traded to the Cubs just before his MLB debut as part of the return for Mark Leiter Jr. Neely spent all of last season in the minors, struggling to a 6.23 ERA across 30 1/3 innings.
The righty has a sinker-slider combination that misses bats but which he struggles to command. Neely struck out 28% of opponents while issuing walks at an untenable 19% rate in Triple-A last season. He’s likely to wind up on waivers this week. Neely has one minor league option year remaining and wouldn’t need to be on the MLB roster if another team takes a flier on the stuff.
Conforto and Kingery secure the final two position player jobs, beating out fellow non-roster invitee Chas McCormick in that role. Matt Shaw and backup catcher Miguel Amaya fill out Craig Counsell’s four-man bench.
Cubs, Pete Crow-Armstrong Agree To Extension
The Cubs and star center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong are in agreement on a six-year extension covering the 2027-33 seasons. It’s a $115MM guarantee for the CAA client, who can earn another $18MM via escalators. Crow-Armstrong had been under club control through 2030, so the deal — which doesn’t include any option years — buys out two free agent seasons.
Crow-Arsmtrong will collect a $5MM signing bonus. He’ll make a pre-arbitration salary this year before his salary jumps to $10MM annually between 2027-29. He’ll make $20MM in 2030 and $30MM per season in 2031-32. There’s a $1MM assignment bonus any time he’s traded throughout the contract, while his salaries in the final two seasons can climb depending on his placements in MVP voting between 2027-30.
Chicago tried to get a deal done with Crow-Armstrong during last year’s Spring Training. He was coming off a modest .237/.286/.384 season as a rookie, but the Cubs clearly felt he had another gear offensively. There has never been any doubt regarding his elite center field defense.
The sides couldn’t reach an agreement last spring. Crow-Armstrong’s asking price has certainly jumped 12 months later. He took a huge step forward from a power perspective, connecting on 31 home runs with 72 extra-base hits. He stole 35 bases, making him one of seven players to go 30-30 last year. He also led all outfielders with 24 Outs Above Average, while tying for second among center fielders (behind Ceddanne Rafaela) with 15 Defensive Runs Saved.
For a good portion of the season, Crow-Armstrong looked to be on track for a top three MVP finish. He was on an offensive tear for four months, hitting 27 homers with a .272/.309/.559 slash line through the end of July. His bat went ice cold to close the season, as he stumbled to a .188/.237/.295 mark over his final 200 trips to the plate.
The tough finish “dropped” Crow-Armstrong to ninth in NL MVP balloting. He deservedly earned his first All-Star selection and Gold Glove. He finished the season as a slightly above-average hitter, posting a .247/.287/.481 line across 647 plate appearances. Crow-Armstrong had a tough postseason (batting .185 without an extra-base hit in eight games) but was much better this spring while playing for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic.
Crow-Armstrong’s late-season slump highlights the remaining concerns about his offensive consistency. He’s one of the most aggressive hitters in the league, swinging at nearly 60% of the pitches he has seen in his career. No other player who took 500 plate appearances last year swung more often.
Only Yainer Diaz and Michael Harris II more frequently chased pitches outside the strike zone. As a result, Crow-Armstrong has walked in fewer than 5% of his career plate appearances. He has gone down on strikes at a slightly elevated 24% rate. The approach leaves him with a low floor from an OBP perspective that’ll probably continue leading to a streaky offensive game.
At the same time, Crow-Armstrong clearly has a ceiling that few players in the league can match. The glove isn’t going to slump. He’s an elite runner and athlete with a fantastic arm and an excellent first step. The defense alone would give him a high floor even if he had minimal offensive upside. Crow-Armstrong can carry a lineup when he’s going well, as he showed for the first two-thirds of last season. He has above-average bat speed and plus power, particularly against right-handed pitching.
The lefty hitter posted a .271/.315/.523 mark with 24 homers when holding the platoon advantage. He struggled against southpaws, batting .188/.217/.376 with seven longballs in 188 plate appearances. The defense is so good that the Cubs won’t use him as a platoon player, but they’re surely hoping to see more competitive at-bats against lefties.
It’s possible that’ll come with experience. Crow-Armstrong is entering his age-24 season. It’s unlikely he’s ever going to become a patient hitter, but it’s fair to project him some improvements to his selectivity as he gets into his mid 20s. If he plateaus at 10-15 percent better than average offensively, he’d remain one of the better all-around players in the National League. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued him around 5-6 wins above replacement a year ago. Crow-Armstrong’s all-out playing style has also made him a favorite of the fanbase and arguably the face of the franchise.
Crow-Armstrong is two days shy of having two full years of service time. He would have qualified for early arbitration as a Super Two player next offseason. He was five years away from reaching free agency, when he would have hit the market at age 29.
Jackson Merrill’s nine-year, $135MM extension with the Padres last spring is the top guarantee for a player with between one and two years of MLB service. Merrill and Crow-Armstrong have similar profiles as star center fielders with power but some on-base concerns. Crow-Armstrong is the superior defender, though Merrill is a very good outfielder in his own right. The latter probably has a slightly higher offensive floor because he makes more contact.
Merrill was a year younger than Crow-Armstrong is now. He was not on track to qualify as a Super Two player, but he was trending towards hitting free agency by age 27. Merrill probably left some money on the table, though his deal is the most obvious comparison point for talks between the Cubs and Crow-Armstrong’s camp. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Cubs’ 2025 offer was for $66MM.
Chicago’s long-term outfield is wide open. Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ are on track to hit free agency next offseason. Nico Hoerner, Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon are also slated to hit the market, and the Cubs surely aren’t bringing everybody back. They traded Owen Caissie to the Marlins as a centerpiece of the Edward Cabrera return. Prospect Kevin Alcántara has power but concerning strikeout rates. Crow-Armstrong would have been in center field either way, but there could be a fair amount of turnover around him in the Wrigley outfield a year from now.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the agreement and the six-year, $115MM guarantee. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the $18MM in escalators. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com had the escalator specifics and salary breakdown.
Image courtesy of Rick Scuteri, Imagn Images.
MLBTR Podcast: The PCA and Sanchez Extensions, And Prospect Promotions And Reassignments
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The extension between the Cubs and Pete Crow-Armstrong (recorded prior to the numbers being reported) (2:20)
- The extension between the Phillies and Cristopher Sánchez (7:00)
- The Braves losing Spencer Strider to the injured list (14:00)
- Is there a trend of starting pitcher prospects being used in major league bullpens? (18:15)
- The Nationals optioning Dylan Crews and Harry Ford, with Josiah Gray landing on the 60-day IL (23:35)
- Carson Benge making the Mets‘ Opening Day roster (30:30)
- JJ Wetherholt making the Cardinals‘ Opening Day roster (35:40)
- The Pirates not breaking camp with Konnor Griffin (39:15)
- The Guardians not breaking camp with Travis Bazzana (44:40)
- The Blue Jays starting the season with José Berríos and Trey Yesavage on the injured list (49:20)
- The Marlins optioning Braxton Garrett (55:55)
Check out our past episodes!
- Banged-Up Reds And Braves, Kevin McGonigle, And Spring Breakouts – listen here
- Jesús Luzardo’s Extension, Atlanta’s Depth, And Zack Littell – listen here
- Max Scherzer, The Red Sox’ Lineup, Spring Extension Candidates, And More! – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Kyle Ross, Imagn Images