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Camp Battles: Padres’ Second Base Options

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Minor league signings aren’t often that compelling, but the Padres did make an intriguing pickup on a non-guaranteed deal this past weekend. The club added to a crowded picture at second base by inking former star Brian Dozier to a low-risk pact. It was somewhat of a surprise outcome in free agency for Dozier, as even though he’s not the huge-hitting, base-stealing standout he was in his Twins heyday, he was still fairly productive in 2019.

As a member of last year’s World Series-winning Nationals, Dozier batted .238/.340/.430 with 20 home runs in 482 plate appearances. Those numbers essentially made the 32-year-old Dozier a league-average hitter (99 wRC+) and overall producer (1.7 fWAR). So, from the Padres’ perspective, there’s little to no harm in giving Dozier a shot on a deal that’ll only amount to $2.2MM if he makes their roster.

Second base was something of a sore spot in 2019 for San Diego, which received almost nothing from the now-retired Ian Kinsler and saw once-touted prospect Luis Urias struggle. Consequently, the Padres have reshuffled at the position since last season ended.

Well before the Dozier signing, the Padres traded Urias to the Brewers in a swap that sent outfielder Trent Grisham and righty Zach Davies to San Diego. A few days after that, the Padres replaced Urias in a different trade, acquiring Jurickson Profar from the Athletics for young catcher Austin Allen. Profar’s due to earn $5.7MM this season in his last year of arbitration control, but that’s not a guaranteed sum until the season begins. It’s unlikely to happen, but the Padres will be able to move on from Profar this spring if he flounders in their second base competition. Notably, the switch-hitting Profar, 27, hasn’t performed all that well since he debuted with the Rangers as an elite prospect in 2012. His difficulties continued last season in his lone year in Oakland, as he hit .218/.301/.410 with 20 homers and 1.3 fWAR in 518 PA.

Dozier was more productive than Profar in 2019, and so was fellow Padre Greg Garcia. He batted .248/.364/.354 en route to 1.4 fWAR over 372 trips to the plate. However, the lefty-hitting 30-year-old wasn’t an option against same-handed pitchers. Conversely, Profar owned lefties while faring poorly versus righties. As Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune notes, the plan had been for Profar and Garcia to platoon at second. That could still end up happening, but the addition of the right-handed Dozier – who has historically smacked lefties around – could throw a wrench into a Profar-Garcia tandem. Garcia doesn’t have a minor league option remaining, though, meaning he could wind up with another organization if he doesn’t make the Padres’ season-opening roster.

Dozier, Profar and Garcia are the main combatants in San Diego’s second base competition, though the team does have a few other possibilities in the mix. The versatile Ty France totaled 17 major league appearances at the keystone last season. His production wasn’t great in the bigs, whereas he utterly pulverized Triple-A pitching, hitting a video game-like .399/.477/.770 with 27 home runs (196 wRC+) in 348 plate appearances. He’s on the Padres’ 40-man roster, as is Breyvic Valera, whom they claimed on waivers a couple weeks ago. Valera has put up nice numbers in the minors, but the 28-year-old switch hitter has fallen flat in multiple MLB stops. Unlike France, Valera’s out of options, so he could head back to the waiver wire if he doesn’t hold his own in camp.

That group aside, the Padres also have other second base-capable players around (Gordon Beckham, Esteban Quiroz, Ivan Castillo and Hudson Potts, to name a few), but they’re all in camp as non-roster invitees. Odds are that they’re not realistically going to push for the second base job. On the other hand, even though Dozier’s a fellow NRI, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the accomplished veteran open the year in San Diego. In the meantime, the club’s in for an interesting keystone competition over the next month.

Tatis On Franchy Cordero: "If He Has A Chance, He's Going To Outplay Me."

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  • Injuries have limited Franchy Cordero to only 49 Major League games over the last two seasons, leaving the Padres uncertain but still hopeful about his vast potential, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  Teammates remain impressed by Cordero, with no less than Fernando Tatis Jr. saying “if [Cordero] has a chance, he’s going to outplay me.  He has more tools than me.  He has way more power than me, and the speed is about the same level….If he stays healthy, he can be one of the best players in the game, simple as that.”  Some glimpses of Cordero’s hitting ability have been exhibited over his 273 career plate appearances, as Cordero has ten homers and a .240/.306/.431 slash line as a big leaguer, and his ability to play all three outfield positions could be an advantage as he fights to win at least a bench job on San Diego’s roster.

Padres To Sign Brian Dozier To Minor League Deal

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6:28PM: Dozier will earn $2.2MM if he makes San Diego’s roster, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link), plus some extra money is available to Dozier via contract incentives.

10:38AM: The Padres have agreed to terms with second baseman Brian Dozier and invited him to MLB spring training, report AJ Cassavell of MLB.com (via Twitter) and Robert Murray (Twitter link). It’ll be a minor-league deal, Murray adds (via Twitter). Dozier is a client of All Bases Covered Sports Management.

Dozier was once an elite performer for the Twins but has tailed off a bit in recent years. Over the last two seasons, he compiled a .225/.320/.408 line (94 wRC+) with 41 home runs in 1114 plate appearances with Minnesota, the Dodgers and the Nationals. That pales in comparison to the stellar .269/.349/.522 (129 wRC+) mark with 72 homers he posted over the two seasons prior.

At age 32, Dozier’s days as a masher are probably behind him. Even recently, though, he’s remained a generally productive player. Not only has he gotten regular playing time on contending clubs, he’s remained a solid hitter. Last season in Washington, Dozier hit .238/.340/.430 (99 wRC+). Defensive metrics are mixed on his work on second base. UZR thinks he’s a perfectly fine defender, while DRS and Statcast are more bearish.

As the slash line indicates, Dozier remains capable of hitting for power and drawing walks, making him a solid veteran bat near the bottom of a team’s order. He also makes a fair amount of contact, although his fly ball approach has perennially driven low batting averages on balls in play. The Statcast metrics also suggest Dozier’s something of a league average bat, as his .331 xwOBA last season ranked in the 49th percentile.

In many years, that would’ve been enough for Dozier to find a guaranteed MLB job, but the free agent market at second base was loaded with similar veterans. It’s still a bit surprising to see he’ll have to earn his way onto a 40-man roster in spring training, although there’s certainly room for him to do so with the Padres.

Jurickson Profar, Greg Garcia and Breyvic Valera are San Diego’s top three current options at second base. Padres’ GM A.J. Preller is surely fond of Profar, having signed him as an international free agent with the Rangers and acquired him from the A’s this offseason. Dozier arguably outplayed Profar last season, though, as the latter has never quite made good on his vaunted prospect status. Meanwhile, non-roster invitees Esteban Quiroz and Gordon Beckham figure to have a tougher shot at making the club.

There’s nothing to lose, meanwhile, from San Diego’s perspective. They’ll get a look at a more productive player than most minor-league signees who plays a position of uncertainty. Alternatively, they could consider Dozier as a right-handed bench bat, a profile which the 26-man active roster makes more capable of stashing on the roster. Dozier has a career .270/.354/.500 slash against left-handed pitching and has continued to hit southpaws well in recent seasons.

This Date In Transactions History: The $300MM Man(ny)

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It has been exactly one year since the biggest signing in the history of the San Diego franchise became official. The team stunningly pulled in former Orioles and Dodgers third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado on a 10-year, $300MM contract. The deal easily trumped the Padres’ previous record contract – the eight-year, $144MM pact they awarded first baseman Eric Hosmer in February 2018.

Along with outfielder Bryce Harper, Machado entered last winter’s free-agent market as one of the most ballyhooed free agents of all-time. The two made for rare in-their-prime superstars to get to that stage, but it took quite some time for either to find landing spots. Unlike this offseason, free agency moved at a glacial pace then, leaving Machado and Harper without teams until almost March. However, both ultimately inked two of the richest contracts free agency has seen (Harper’s $330MM guarantee still stands as the largest ever awarded on the open market).

When Machado became a free agent, expectations were he’d sign with a big-spending team like the Yankees, but they and others decided to go in another direction. And Machado didn’t do himself any favors when he said during the prior fall that he’s “not the type of player that’s going to be ’Johnny Hustle.’” Nevertheless, he arrived on the market as an incredibly accomplished player.

Upon getting to free agency, Machado was a 26-year-old with four All-Star nods and two Gold Gloves under his belt, and he showed he could handle both short and third with aplomb. Furthermore, from his first full season in 2013 through 2018, Machado batted .283/.337/.489 with 168 home runs, accounting for the seventh-highest fWAR among position players (28.9). For the most part, he was also rather durable in that span, twice appearing in 162 games in a season and amassing at least 150 appearances five times.

Machado’s sturdiness continued in his first season as a Padre in 2019, when he took part in 156 games. The longtime shortstop did see time there, but only because stellar youngster Fernando Tatis Jr. missed a significant amount of action thanks to injuries. The plan was (and continues to be) for Machado and Tatis to form one of the premier left sides of the infield in baseball. When healthy, there’s a case they did just that, though Machado’s first year in San Diego was arguably somewhat disappointing. Primarily a third baseman, Machado took 661 plate appearances and hit .256/.334/.462 – good for a slightly above-average 108 wRC+. That comes off as pedestrian in comparison to some of his past seasons, yet he still mashed 32 homers and recorded 3.1 fWAR.

Most teams would sign up for the type of production Machado offered in 2019 from their third basemen. However, the Padres probably wanted more bang for their buck in the first season of a $300MM contract. Perhaps the Padres will get it this season, as Machado has shown an ability in the past to bounce back from seasons that have been so-so by his standards (compare his 2017 to his 2018, for example). If he returns to elite form, it would only help the Padres in their quest to break what’s now a 13-year playoff drought.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Video: The MLBPA & The Astros Scandal; Red Sox Still Discussing Wil Myers

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What is the role of the Players’ Union in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal? Why are the Padres and Red Sox still discussing Wil Myers? MLBTR’s Jeff Todd has you covered in today’s video:

For further reading, be sure to check out Jeff’s article, How MLB & The Astros Dug Their Own Hole.

Red Sox, Padres Reportedly Still Negotiating Wil Myers Swap

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FEBRUARY 19: The Pads are indeed interested in both Lindor and Senzel, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports (subscription link). It’s even possible that the Myers talks with the Red Sox could morph into a three-team arrangement involving the Reds, Lin adds.

FEBRUARY 18: Spring Training is now upon us. Prior talks failed to result in a deal. And yet the Red Sox are still holding talks with the Padres about a potential deal that would send first baseman/outfielder Wil Myers to Boston, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Details are about as firm as you could ever hope to see them in a rumor of a potential swap. As before, the Friars want the Sox to take over about half of Myers’s salary (total guarantee of $61MM) over the next three years. Young talent would go to Boston to sweeten the pot. Players that have been discussed include Cal Quantrill, Luis Campusano, and Gabriel Arias, though it’s not clear which would be included and the Sox wouldn’t be able to obtain all of them just to take on half of what’s owed Myers.

That leaves out one major component of the as-yet-uncompleted trade talks: what would come back from the Red Sox? The original chatter between these teams involved Mookie Betts, who is no longer in the Boston stable. There’s no real indication just yet as to what current Red Sox might pique the interest of Padres GM A.J. Preller.

Yet more intriguing? The real goal, per Acee, is to swing a blockbuster for a high-level talent. He notes Nick Senzel of the Reds and Francisco Lindor of the Indians as longstanding targets, but it’s not really clear whether either is realistically available at this point. There aren’t many other conceivable candidates to be acquired who’d meet the description of a “difference-making” performer.

It’s fair to hold some skepticism here, especially as to the possible second prong of this scenario. Then again, Preller once pulled off a trade for Craig Kimbrel just before the start of a season, so it’s tough to rule out any mid-spring fireworks.

This Date In Transactions History: Hoz To Pads

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Two years ago today, a struggling San Diego club doled out what was then the largest contract in franchise history. The Padres added free-agent first baseman Eric Hosmer on an eight-year, $144MM deal, no doubt hoping he’d help legitimize a team that was then stuck in an 11-year playoff drought. That skid has continued since the Padres picked up Hosmer, however.

The Royals made Hosmer the third overall pick in 2008, and he remained among the game’s most prized prospects during his time in their farm system. Hosmer further upped his stock with a quality rookie season in the majors in 2011, the beginning of an up-and-down career. He wound up turning in two sub-replacement-level seasons as a Royal, yet the highs were high when they came. Hosmer took home four Gold Gloves in KC, earned an All-Star nod in 2016 and was an important part of the franchise’s first World Series-winning season (2015) since 1985.

The Royals’ descent in the standings began in 2016, the year after their title-winning campaign, as Hosmer was again closer to replacement level than truly valuable. But Hosmer rebounded in a big way the next season, batting a personal-best .318/.385/.498 with career highs in home runs (25) and fWAR (4.0). Thanks in part to his production that year and his well-regarded clubhouse presence, the Royals – despite being at the start of a rebuild – wanted to keep Hosmer when he became a free agent. In the end, though, they couldn’t keep him from heading to San Diego, which hauled in Hosmer after he remained on the open market for much longer than expected.

At least during the initial stages of his contract, the Padres were banking on 2017-esque production from Hosmer. Unfortunately for them, Hosmer has been more Hyde than Jekyll in their uniform. He accounted for negative fWARs in each of his first two seasons as a Padre, totaling minus-0.5 over a team-leading 1,344 trips to the plate. His .259/.316/.412 line as a Padre has been 7 percent worse than the league-average offensive output, according to wRC+.

Based on his numbers as a Padre, it’s fair to say the Hosmer signing has been regrettable for the Padres. And it has caused other complications, including with Wil Myers. While Myers was the Padres’ first baseman when they signed Hosmer, he then had to shift to the outfield and hasn’t offered much production since. Consequently, Myers has been the subject of trade rumors for multiple years, including at this very moment. He’s a poor fit on a team that’s committed to Hosmer for the foreseeable future, and general manager A.J. Preller has worked to get rid of Myers as a result.

The fact that the Padres also have quite a bit of payroll tied up in Hosmer only adds to their problems. Their combined $444MM guarantees to Hosmer and third baseman Manny Machado – whose $300MM pact trumps Hosmer’s – might say otherwise, but they’ve never ranked among the freest spenders in the game (though they are on track for a franchise-high payroll in 2020). Every dollar counts in the Padres’ situation, so squandering nine figures on a player who has had so much trouble producing in their uniform could have negative ramifications for years.

Although they can’t be pleased with what Hosmer has given them thus far, he’s unlikely to go anywhere. Agent Scott Boras included full no-trade rights in the first three seasons of Hosmer’s deal when he negotiated it, for one. The contract also has an opt-out clause after the fifth year, though the way things have gone lately, it’s hard to imagine Hosmer walking away from the Padres. He’ll certainly be in San Diego in 2020, when the club will hope his age-30 campaign goes far better than his previous couple seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Padres Notes: Myers, Profar

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  • Wil Myers also isn’t any stranger to the Mookie Betts trade saga, as he was reportedly part of a Padres offer headed to Boston in exchange for the star outfielder.  “It seemed extremely real at that given moment,” Myers told the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee and other reporters, though he noted that “I’ve been traded twice.  I’ve been in trade rumors a long time.  I’ve figured out how to deal with it.  I have no hard feelings toward anybody…I understand the business side.”  The proposed Betts trade was far from Myers’ only inclusion in the offseason rumor mill, as the Padres have reportedly been trying to unload the former AL Rookie Of The Year (and at least some of the $61MM remaining on Myers’ contract) for much of the winter.  If a trade doesn’t happen, Myers is looking forward to a new season and a fresh start with a new coaching staff, as he admitted to a bit of tension with former manager Andy Green.  “Listen, it goes both ways. There are times you’re with a guy for four years and certain things happen,” Myers said.  “Nobody hates Andy.  It was a situation that happens.  At the highest level, emotions run high.”
  • While the Padres haven’t shut the door on using Jurickson Profar at other positions during the season, Profar’s Spring Training work will be focused around second base, manager Jayce Tingler told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell and other reporters.  “Right now, where we’re trying to get his progression on the throwing, we find it best to just stay concentrated at second base,” Tingler said.  “But, again, being a switch-hitter and being able to play six or seven different positions, we view that as a positive.”  Acquired in a trade with the Athletics in December, Profar is still looking to fully establish himself as an everyday player after dealing with multiple injuries and overall inconsistent performance, and he has still played in only 491 MLB games since the start of the 2012 season.  Profar has spent the bulk of his time at the big league level as a second baseman (1536 2/3 of 3590 2/3 career innings), though after also spending a lot of time as a shortstop, third baseman, first baseman, and left fielder, it could be that stabilizing at one position will be what helps Profar not just improve defensively, but also get his bat on track.

Padres Sign Seth Frankoff To Minor League Deal

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The Padres have signed right-hander Seth Frankoff to a minor league deal and invited him to Major League Spring Training, tweets MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. He’s repped by Vanguard Sports.

Frankoff, 31, has spent the past two seasons pitching for the Doosan Bears in the Korea Baseball Organization. In that time, he’s logged a combined 3.68 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and 0.6 HR/9 over the life of 266 2/3 innings (50 starts). Prior to his time in the KBO, Frankoff pitched in the Athletics, Dodgers and Cubs organizations. He appeared in one game with the Cubs’ big league team in 2017 but has not appeared in the Majors otherwise. In 165 1/3 innings of Triple-A ball in his career, Frankoff owns a 4.46 ERA and a 152-to-68 K/BB ratio.

Frankoff gives the Friars some depth both in the rotation and in the bullpen, as he’s pitched extensively in both roles throughout a decade-long professional career. San Diego has added Zach Davies to its rotation mix and Emilio Pagan to the bullpen this winter via trade. The Friars have also dished out free-agent contracts to Drew Pomeranz (four years, $34MM), Craig Stammen (two years, $9MM) and Pierce Johnson (two years, $5MM). That slate of acquisitions dampens Frankoff’s hopes of breaking camp with the club, but he’s a reasonable depth option to have on hand in the event of injuries throughout the pitching staff.

 

Padres Claim Breyvic Valera

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The Padres announced Wednesday that they’ve claimed infielder/outfielder Breyvic Valera off waivers from the Blue Jays. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, San Diego has placed right-hander Anderson Espinoza on the 60-day injured list. Espinoza underwent Tommy John surgery late last April.

Valera, 28, was designated for assignment earlier this week when Toronto finalized its one-year deal with reliever Rafael Dolis. Valera spent time with both the Jays and Yankees in 2019, though he appeared in just 17 games and took just 52 plate appearances. Overall, Valera has appeared in the Majors with five teams but played in just 54 games, hitting .223/.294/.298 in 138 trips to the plate.

Lack of MLB track record aside, the switch-hitting Valera is the owner of a .302/.374/.442 slash in 1550 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. Coupled with his defensive versatility –he’s played second base, third base and all three outfield positions — it’s easy to see why so many clubs have been intrigued by his skill set and taken brief looks at him. At this point, however, Valera has exhausted all three of his minor league option years, meaning he’ll need to break camp with the Padres (or another club) or else be traded or placed on waivers once again.

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