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Padres Notes: King, Kelly, Darvish

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The Padres reunited with Michael King this past week on a three-year deal that offers him the opportunity to opt out in each of the next two offseasons. As noted by Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union Tribune, however, negotiations between the two sides didn’t kick into gear until very recently.

Sanders notes that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller instructed manager Craig Stammen and pitching coach Ruben Niebla to message King less than two weeks ago to see if King was interested in returning to San Diego. At the outset of the offseason, the right-hander initially preferred a return to the east coast, where he pitched for years with the Yankees after growing up in Rhode Island and going to college in Boston. King indicated to reporters (including Sanders) that while some teams had “blown [him] away” with strong offers, he didn’t believe those teams had the roster and commitment to winning necessary to field a World Series contender in 2026. King added that he was prioritizing winning “for the duration of the contract,” and that he was willing to take less in order to make that happen.

It seems that ended up being what he did with San Diego, which Sanders adds was the only west coast team King had interest in playing for. While King’s $75MM guarantee came in just shy of the $80MM guarantee MLBTR predicted for the right-hander at the outset of the offseason, it’s nonetheless a strong deal given the higher average annual value and opt-out opportunities after each season. With that said, King clearly was trending towards a nine-figure contract prior to his injury woes this past season. It’s not inconceivable that there was a team willing to look past the medical concerns and offer him that sort of deal this winter, given King’s comments. The Marlins, Cubs, Orioles, Yankees, and Red Sox were among the teams known to have interest in King’s services this winter, though Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Yankees ultimately never made an offer to the righty.

With King in the fold alongside Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove, Preller indicated that he’s satisfied with the front of the club’s rotation. It seems the Padres had a strong desire to add to the front of their rotation this winter, however, as Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that San Diego made a “competitive” offer to right-hander Merrill Kelly before landing King. Kelly ultimately landed with the Diamondbacks on a two-year, $40MM deal. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently reported that Kelly received a three-year offer from a west coast team that would’ve guaranteed the right-hander “more than $50MM,” and it’s not clear if the Padres were the team references in Rosenthal’s report, it certainly wouldn’t be a shock if the “competitive” offer Lin reports that San Diego made to Kelly was in that ballpark. A three-year offer in that range could theoretically have been similar to the four-year, $55MM contract the team signed Pivetta to last winter.

Perhaps Preller’s desire to add a front-of-the-rotation arm this winter in part stems from uncertainty surrounding Yu Darvish’s future. The veteran right-hander underwent UCL surgery last month that will keep him out of commission for at least the entire 2026 campaign. What’s more, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported earlier this week that Darvish is not certain if he’ll pitch again following his rehab process. The 39-year-old hurler was limited to 15 starts this past year due to injury and struggled when he did take the mound, with a 5.38 ERA in 72 innings of work. Given that he’ll celebrate his 41st birthday during the 2027 season, it’s perhaps not a shock that Darvish is uncertain about his ability to return to a major league mound after this latest health-related setback.

Of course, the possibility of Darvish stepping away from baseball is complicated by his contract situation. The veteran righty is under contract for $16MM in 2026 and is set to make $15MM per year in both 2027 and 2028. If Darvish were to retire, as Acee has reported he’s contemplating, He would stand to lose out on at least some of that money. It’s also possible that Darvish and the Padres could negotiate a buyout, not unlike the process the Angels and Anthony Rendon are reportedly in the midst of ahead of the final year of his contract with the organization. Perhaps that sort of buyout could help create financial flexibility for the budget-conscious Padres, who have had to get creative with their contracts in recent years in order to remain competitive and continue spending in free agency.

Nine Teams Exceeded Luxury Tax Threshold In 2025

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Major League Baseball has finalized its calculations of teams’ competitive balance tax payrolls for the 2025 season. As first reported by The Associated Press, nine teams surpassed the $241MM base threshold. In a separate post, The AP lists the finalized CBT numbers for all 30 teams.

The payments are as follows:

  • Dodgers: $169.4MM
  • Mets: $91.6MM
  • Yankees: $61.8MM
  • Phillies: $56.1MM
  • Blue Jays: $13.6MM
  • Padres: $7MM
  • Astros: $1.5MM
  • Red Sox: $1.5MM
  • Rangers: $190K

Teams pay escalating penalties for exceeding the threshold in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Rangers have all paid the tax in at least three straight years — subjecting them to the highest escalator fees. The Astros went over the line for the second straight season. The Blue Jays, Padres and Red Sox had gotten below in 2024 and are categorized as first-time payors.

This is the second straight year in which nine teams paid the CBT. The Braves, Giants and Cubs had gone over the line in ’24 but dipped below this year, which resets their status going into 2026. Atlanta’s active offseason puts them in position to go back into tax territory next year, when the base threshold climbs to $244MM. San Francisco and Chicago each have projected CBT numbers more than $40MM below that right now.

While public estimates from RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts offer an excellent approximation of teams’ payroll commitments, the official numbers are not available during the season. It’s not uncommon for rounding errors in those calculations to vary by a few million dollars. That generally isn’t a big deal but can matter for teams that are hovering very close to the tax line. Each of the Red Sox ($249MM payroll), Astros ($246MM) and Rangers ($241.38MM) were believed to have gone narrowly beyond the $241MM cutoff, but that wasn’t 100% established until this evening — particularly in the case of Texas.

The Dodgers ($417MM), Mets ($347MM), Yankees ($320MM), Phillies ($314MM) and Blue Jays ($286MM) all had payrolls above $281MM. That was the third tier of penalization and marked the point at which a team’s top draft pick is dropped by 10 spots. The Mets were the only of those five that didn’t make the playoffs. Their top pick drops from 17th to 27th. The Yankees, Philadelphia, Toronto and L.A. all have their first-round pick dropped to between 35th and 40th.

Teams that paid the CBT are entitled to the lowest level of compensation for losing free agents who declined a qualifying offer. They receive a draft choice after the fourth round for each qualified free agent who walks. They’re charged the heaviest penalty — their second- and fifth-highest picks in 2026 and $1MM from their ’27 international bonus pool — for signing a qualified free agent from another team.

San Diego and the Mets receive a pick after the fourth round for losing Dylan Cease and Edwin Díaz, respectively. Toronto (Bo Bichette), Houston (Framber Valdez) and Philadelphia (Ranger Suárez) would receive the same if their free agents sign elsewhere. The Dodgers surrendered their second- and fifth-round selections for Díaz. Toronto is slated to do the same for Cease, but if Bichette walks, they’d give up that compensatory pick instead and get their fifth-rounder back.

The Dodgers’ combined payroll and tax bill for the 2025 season lands north of $586MM. The two-time defending champions’ tax hit alone is higher than the payrolls of the bottom 12 teams in the league. There were 14 clubs that had a CBT number above $200MM. The Braves, Cubs, Giants, Angels, Diamondbacks and Mariners were the other six teams above the median. All but Seattle spent more than $200MM.

On the other end, the Marlins ($87MM) and White Sox ($92MM) were the two teams with payrolls below $100MM. The Rays ($103MM), Pirates ($109MM) and Athletics ($118MM) rounded out the bottom five — followed by the Guardians, Nationals, Twins, Brewers and Reds.

Overall, the league will collect just under $403MM in taxes. Teams must make the payments by January 21. The first $3.5MM will be used to fund player benefits. Half the remaining money goes to players’ retirement accounts, while the other half is used for revenue sharing distribution from MLB to teams.

Padres To Sign Sung-Mun Song

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The Padres are in agreement with infielder Sung Mun Song on a contract, according to a report from Robert Murray of FanSided. According to Francys Romero of BeisbolFR, it’s a three-year deal that guarantees Song around $13MM.

Song, 29, has broken out in a big way over his last two seasons playing for the KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes. After typically being a slightly below average hitter by that league’s standards in the early years of his career, Song exploded with a .340/.408/.518 (143 wRC+) slash line across 602 plate appearances during the 2024 season. He flashed 20/20 potential at the plate and walked at a career-high 10.6% clip while primarily playing third base for the Heroes. He followed up on that season with an even better year in 2025, as he slashed .315/.387/.530 (151 wRC+) with 26 homers, 25 steals, and 37 doubles in 646 trips to the plate.

Those dominant back-to-back campaigns in the KBO league were enough to convince Song to try his hand in the majors, and the Heroes made Song’s goal a reality when they posted him for MLB clubs last month. That opened a 30-day window (set to close on the 21st of December) for Song to negotiate with MLB clubs. Song has typically been viewed by scouts as a step below MLB Gold Glove winner Ha-Seong Kim, the best South Korean player to make the jump to the majors in recent years, and there’s been some debate about whether he’s more of a utility player or a proper starter at the big league level.

Song’s reported price tag is certainly affordable enough for the Padres to stomach in the event he’s more of a bench piece than a regular. A multi-year pact that pays Song less than $5MM annually figures to be quite affordable for San Diego; Jose Iglesias earned $3MM last year after being added to San Diego’s roster on a minor league deal to fill out the club’s bench mix. Song figures to fill a similar role this year to the one Iglesias held last season, chipping in around the infield and serving as a pinch-hitter.

While Song has primarily played third base throughout his career in the KBO league, that position is manned by Manny Machado in San Diego. Perhaps the Padres will look to get Machado occasional DH reps headed into his age-33 campaign, but aside from those occasional fill-in days Song figures to spend most of his time at first and second base, both of which are positions he logged significant time at in South Korea. Jake Cronenworth is currently slated to serve as San Diego’s second baseman next year, though his name has popped up in trade talks this winter. First base meanwhile, is unsettled after the departure of Luis Arraez. Gavin Sheets has some experience at the position but may be better suited for DH duties. As a result, first base could be Song’s best shot at regular reps, though it’s possible a trade of Cronenworth or the addition of a more traditional first base option like Paul Goldschmidt or Rhys Hoskins changes things.

The signing of Song comes just one day after the club agreed to reunite with right-hander Michael King on a three-year, opt-out laden contract. According to RosterResource, the Padres project for a payroll just under $217MM in 2026, with a payroll of nearly $258MM for luxury tax purposes. That’s before the addition of Song to the payroll, which at the currently reported numbers would push the team’s payroll up to around $221MM and around $262MM for luxury tax purposes. That would put them just barely below the second, $264MM luxury tax threshold for 2026.

If the Padres don’t want to go over that line, they would need to subtract salary from the roster to make virtually any more additions to the roster. That’s far from impossible, as rumors have percolated around not only Cronenworth but also players like right-hander Nick Pivetta and Ramon Laureano. A trade of Pivetta would save $20.5MM in 2026 and $13.75MM for luxury tax purposes. Cronenworth being dealt would save roughly $12.3MM in 2026 and $11.5MM for luxury tax purposes. Laureano wouldn’t save nearly as much money, as he’s due just $6.5MM next season on the final year of his contract.

Of course, it’s also possible the Padres simply stand pat from here, though doing so without adding another bat to the first base/DH mix would certainly be risky. Perhaps an addition on the trade market that comes with a lower financial cost could make some sense if San Diego neither wants to exceed the second luxury tax threshold nor trade salary to make room in the budget. Players like Triston Casas of the Red Sox and Mark Vientos of the Mets could potentially be available this winter and remain under affordable team control.

Padres To Sign José Miranda To Minor League Deal

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The Padres have agreed to a minor league deal with infielder José Miranda, reports Aram Leighton of Just Baseball. The Boras Corporation client also receives an invite to big league camp in spring training.

Miranda, 28 in June, seemed like a long-term piece for the Twins not too long ago. He debuted with Minnesota in 2022 and hit 15 home runs in 483 plate appearances. His 5.8% walk rate was quite low but he was also tough to punch out, going down on strikes just 18.8% of the time. He finished that year with a .268/.325/.426 line and 116 wRC+, splitting his time between the two infield corners.

A shoulder injury wrecked his 2023 season. He required surgery and only got into 40 games, with a dismal .211/.263/.303 line in those. He got back on track the following year. He only hit nine homers in 429 plate appearances but slashed .284/.322/.441 for a 114 wRC+. Another swoon came in 2025. He started the year with a .167/.167/.250 line and got optioned to the minors in mid-April. He spent the rest of the year in Triple-A with a dismal .195/.272/.296 line at that level.

The lack of offense really hurts Miranda. He’s not a fast runner and his defensive grades are mostly poor. He’s work at third base has been worth minus-14 Outs Above Average in his career, though Defensive Runs Saved has given him a grade of +1. Both metrics frown upon his first base work, as Miranda has a -6 DRS and -4 OAA there.

He exhausted his final option this year and will be out of options going forward. That will make it harder for him to hold a roster spot. He was passed through waivers and outrighted in November, then became a free agent.

For the Padres, there’s no harm in a non-roster pact like this. They currently have Manny Machado as their everyday third baseman, though he is going to turn 34 next summer, so perhaps the Padres might be wise to use him as the designated hitter more frequently. They reportedly have a deal in place with Sung Mun Song, which will give them more depth at both infield corners and at second base, though Song is unproven since he’s coming over from South Korea and has no major league experience. Jake Cronenworth is likely to be at second base and Gavin Sheets potentially at first, though Song could theoretically factor in at either of those positions and Cronenworth can play first. The DH spot is fairly open at the moment, so Machado or Sheets or someone else could carve out time there.

Cronenworth has been in trade rumors as the Padres look to strike a balance between competing and their keeping their financial house in order. That could change the whole picture, as could other moves or injuries. If Miranda is able to hit his way onto the roster, he is out of options but has less than three years of service time, meaning the Padres could potentially control him for four seasons.

Photo courtesy of Jordan Johnson, Imagn Images

Padres Re-Sign Michael King

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December 19th: The Padres officially announced their deal with King today.

December 18th: The Padres have an agreement to re-sign Michael King to a three-year contract with opt-outs after the first two seasons. The Excel Sports Management client is reportedly guaranteed $75MM.

He’ll receive a $12MM signing bonus and a $5MM salary for the 2026 season. He’d collect a $5MM buyout if he opts out of the remaining two years and $53MM. King would make $28MM in 2027 if he opts in and would then have a $30MM player option for the ’28 campaign. While the Padres have yet to announce the deal, he has reportedly already passed his physical.

It’s a surprise strike for a San Diego team that had seemed likely to lose King and Dylan Cease in free agency. It wasn’t clear whether they’d have the short-term spending capacity to keep either pitcher. While they were never expected to come close to the $210MM guarantee which Cease received, they’ll bring King back on a short-term deal to help a rotation that was their top priority.

The 2026 season will be the righty’s third in San Diego. The Padres acquired King as the centerpiece of their Juan Soto return over the 2023-24 offseason. He had run with a limited rotation opportunity late in his final season as a Yankee after years of strong work out of the bullpen. San Diego committed to him as a full-time starter and was rewarded with a career season.

King pitched to a 2.95 earned run average with 201 strikeouts over 173 2/3 innings. He finished seventh in NL Cy Young balloting and entered his walk year as a candidate for a nine-figure contract. He looked on his way to a $150MM+ deal after getting out to an even better beginning to the ’25 campaign. He turned in a 2.59 ERA while striking out 28.4% of batters faced over his first 10 starts.

The Padres scratched King from his outing on May 24 with stiffness in his throwing shoulder. Then-manager Mike Shildt initially framed it as a minor issue that arose when the pitcher slept awkwardly. It proved a much bigger problem. King went on the injured list with what the team called inflammation. They subsequently determined it was a nerve injury that came with a nebulous timeline. He wound up missing almost three months.

King made his return on August 9. He made one start before going back down with left knee inflammation. That cost him another month, and he wasn’t as effective when he made it back for good in September. King didn’t get beyond five innings in any of his final four starts. He gave up 10 runs over 15 2/3 innings. Most of the damage came in an eight-run drubbing at the hands of the Mets on September 16. King’s final two appearances were scoreless, but those came with an uninspiring 7:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Padres didn’t fully trust King going into October. They opted for Nick Pivetta, Cease, and Yu Darvish to start in their Wild Card Series loss to the Cubs. King’s only playoff action was one scoreless inning of relief in the decisive Game 3. He struck out three of four batters while averaging 95.6 MPH on his fastball. That was his highest single game velocity of the season. That’s to be expected during a one-inning appearance with the heightened adrenaline of a must-win game, but it was an encouraging sign for the health of his shoulder.

San Diego issued the $22.025MM qualifying offer. It was an easy call for King to decline in search of a multi-year deal. This arrangement functions as a bit of a pillow contract but with a much higher floor than the one-year QO would have provided. King would make $22MM if he opts out after one year. That result would be the same as if he’d accepted the qualifying offer.  The extra two guaranteed seasons afford him a lot more injury protection.

King’s guarantee technically falls just shy of MLBTR’s four-year, $80MM prediction. However, the higher average annual value and the opt-outs make this a stronger overall deal for the player. He’ll have a chance to return to free agency in advance of his age-32 season and cannot be tagged with another qualifying offer. A healthier season could position him for a four- or five-year contract.

Health is no small caveat. The ’24 campaign is the only time King has reached even 105 innings in a season. While that’s in part because the Yankees used him as a reliever, King missed extended stretches in 2021 (finger contusion) and ’22 (elbow fracture) in addition this year’s shoulder woes. The Padres are taking on some injury risk but get the upside of a potential top-of-the-rotation arm on a short-term deal.

King and Pivetta project as their top two starters. San Diego has reportedly discussed the latter in trade conversations but would need a huge return to move him. Joe Musgrove is back from Tommy John surgery and slots into the #3 rotation spot. They’ll be without Darvish for the entire season, so the final two starting jobs are up for grabs. Randy Vásquez and JP Sears lead the internal options, but the Padres could look for a cheaper back-end/swing type later in the winter. They’ll surely kick the tires on controllable arms in trade, as well, as both Pivetta and King can opt out.

San Diego’s projected payroll climbs to $218MM, as calculated by RosterResource. The backloaded nature doesn’t change the $25MM AAV used for luxury tax purposes. They’re up to a projected $259MM in tax commitments. They’ll exceed the $244MM base threshold for the second straight season. Repeat payors are taxed at a 30% rate for their first $20MM in overages. Re-signing King costs around $4.5MM in taxes.

The more significant development is that it moves them closer to the $264MM second tier, at which the rate climbs to 42%. The Padres had nearly $280MM in luxury tax commitments this year, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their actual salary obligations were around $209MM, though, so it’s unclear how much more flexibility the front office has at its disposal. In addition to the need for a back-end starter, they should acquire another bat to plug in at first base or designated hitter and could use a better utility infielder than Will Wagner and Mason McCoy.

King’s deal is the second-largest of the offseason in what has been a slowly developing market for free agent starting pitchers. Cease is the only other starter who has signed for more than $40MM so far. The rotation market should pick up in the next few weeks. NPB star Tatsuya Imai needs to sign before his 45-day posting window closes on January 2. Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez and Zac Gallen join Imai as the top unsigned arms.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was first on the agreement, contract terms, and the note that the physical is already complete. Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images.

Padres To Sign Triston McKenzie To Minor League Deal

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The Padres and right-hander Triston McKenzie have agreed to a minor league deal, reports Aram Leighton of Just Baseball. The Octagon client will receive an invite to big league camp in spring training.

McKenzie, 28, joins a new organization for the first time. He had spent his entire career with the Guardians until he became a free agent at the end of the most recent season. With Cleveland, he once looked like a budding ace. In 2022, he tossed 191 1/3 innings with a 2.96 earned run average. He struck out 25.6% of batters faced and only gave out walks at a 5.9% clip.

But he’s unfortunately been on a downward trajectory since then. In March of 2023, he was shut down due to a teres major strain. He returned a few months later but then was diagnosed with a sprain of the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow. He avoided surgery but hasn’t been able to get back to that 2022 form.

After missing most of 2023, he was back on the hill in 2024, but he averaged just 91.1 miles per hour on his fastball. That was a notable drop from the 92.5 he averaged two years prior. He posted a 5.11 ERA over 16 starts and spent the final few months of the season on optional assignment, posting a 5.23 ERA at the Triple-A level.

He came into 2025 out of options but the Guards didn’t want to give up on him. He and the club avoided arbitration in November of 2024 with a $1.95MM deal for 2025, a very slight bump over the $1.6MM he made in 2024. He held a bullpen spot to open this year but allowed seven earned runs in 5 2/3 innings before being designated for assignment. The other 29 clubs passed on the chance to grab him off waivers.

After he was off the roster, the Guards sent him to the Complex League, presumably to try to unlock something that would get him back on track. He was sent to Triple-A Columbus in August. He tossed seven innings over eight relief appearances there, allowing six earned runs. He did strike out 11 opponents but also walked 17, hit one batter and threw five wild pitches.

For the Padres, there’s little harm in a minor league deal. They can’t bank on him providing anything of value but there’s nothing but upside on this kind of arrangement. He will presumably be making a very modest salary if he even makes the roster at some point. If things go especially well and he’s holding a roster spot at season’s end, he could be retained via arbitration for 2027 as well.

It’s unclear what role the Padres have in mind for McKenzie. He was mostly a starter until 2025. He was in relief this year but that may have been more due to circumstances, since he was out of options at the beginning of the year and then spent the summer just trying to find some kind of path out of his spiral.

The Padres have an excellent bullpen, even after losing Robert Suarez. They have bigger needs on the rotation side. Over a long season, injuries will pop up and fresh arms will be needed in both groups. Given how things have gone for McKenzie lately, he and the Padres would surely be happy with any kind of success, regardless of whether it’s out of the rotation or the bullpen.

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

Phillies, Mets, Padres, Pirates Interested In Luis Robert Jr.

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TODAY: The Phillies also had recent interest in Robert, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon, continuing Philadelphia’s explorations in a Robert deal back at the trade deadline. Robert’s right-handed bat would be a nice complement to lefty-swingers Brandon Marsh and Justin Crawford in the Philadelphia outfield, and having an experienced center field option like Robert provides the Phillies cover if Crawford isn’t quite ready for prime time as he makes his MLB debut.

DECEMBER 13: Last month, the White Sox picked up their $20MM option on Luis Robert Jr. General manager Chris Getz signaled that the club planned on Robert being their starting center fielder in 2026. That has not stopped clubs from inquiring on his availability in trade talks, as Francys Romero of Beisbol FR reports that the Mets, Padres, and Pirates have expressed interest in acquiring Robert.

The 28-year-old batted .223/.297/.364 with an 84 wRC+ across 110 games for the White Sox this year. His first half was particularly brutal, as he only hit .185/.270/.313 with a 63 wRC+ in 70 games through June 25, when he incurred a left hamstring strain that would send him to the injured list a few days later. Robert was striking out in 30.9% of his plate appearances, only marginally improved from his 33.2% rate last year. He did have a 10.2% walk rate, but for the most part, he was continuing an offensive decline that started with an 84 wRC+ season in 2024.

His second half was a clear improvement. Robert returned from the IL on July 8 and batted .293/.349/.459 with a 124 wRC+ in his next 146 plate appearances. After experiencing poor batted ball luck in the first half of the season (.245 BABIP), he benefited from positive regression upon his return (.317 BABIP). He also dropped his strikeout rate to 16.4% in the second half, bringing that mark down to 26.0% on the season. His rebound was enough for the White Sox to hold onto Robert at the deadline, despite interest from several clubs. Unfortunately, he suffered another left hamstring strain and was placed on the IL in late August, which ultimately ended his season.

The end result was a season worth 1.3 WAR according to FanGraphs. Looking at the bigger picture, it’s clear that Robert has fallen from the height of his 2023 season, when he posted a 129 wRC+ and hit 38 home runs in a career-high 145 games while earning an All-Star nod. That was the fourth season of a six-year, $50MM extension that Robert had signed in January 2020, which was then a record for a player who had not yet debuted in the majors. Robert’s production from 2020-23 made it look like a good deal, but his drop-off in 2024-25 (second-half rebound notwithstanding) made the $20MM club option for 2026 look a lot more expensive.

In the end, the team picked up the option in lieu of paying Robert a $2MM buyout. On the surface, that $18MM net amount was a lot for an injury-prone player who had posted below-average offense for two years, especially for a rebuilding club. The move may have been motivated by the lack of standout center fielders in free agency. Trent Grisham had a strong year in 2025 but accepted the qualifying offer rather than test the market. Cody Bellinger is still available, but he is a corner outfielder at this stage of his career. Harrison Bader is an exceptional defender and will do well on a multi-year deal, although his career-best offensive showing in 2025 was partly the product of good batted ball fortune (.359).

The club is hoping that Robert will have a decent offensive showing in 2026, which would make him a solid trade candidate at next year’s deadline. Still, it’s not surprising to see teams doing their due diligence now, despite Getz’s earlier comments. Eight teams were interested in Robert at this year’s deadline, including the Mets and Padres. The Mets mostly used Tyrone Taylor in center in 2025, but he only posted a 70 wRC+ in 341 plate appearances. They attempted to upgrade by trading for Cedric Mullins, but he himself posted a 66 wRC+ in 143 plate appearances and departed for the Rays in free agency. The club has prospect Carson Benge knocking on the door. A trade for Robert would be affordable for a high-payroll club and would give them an everyday center fielder if they want to ease Benge into the majors.

The Padres and Pirates are more curious fits. The former has Jackson Merrill firmly entrenched in center. He is coming off a 3.0 fWAR season and signed an extension in April that will guarantee him $135MM through 2034. Robert could be an upgrade at DH, but that wouldn’t be the best use of him since he is still a solid defender, posting 7 OAA in center in 2025. RosterResource currently pegs San Diego for a $201MM payroll in 2026, compared to $211MM this year. Team chairman John Seidler recently indicated that the team will operate at around the same level of payroll. They would need the White Sox to cover at least half of Robert’s salary to facilitate an offseason trade, and that’s before leaving room for other additions.

Meanwhile, the Pirates have shown an increased willingness to spend this offseason. They made an $80MM offer to Josh Naylor and were willing to pay Kyle Schwarber $120-$125MM before he re-upped with the Phillies. That said, Robert is obviously not on the same level as Naylor or Schwarber. Pittsburgh also has Oneil Cruz under control through 2028. Like Robert, Cruz had a below-average offensive showing in 2025 (86 wRC+), but Cruz is much more affordable, with a projected $3.6MM salary in his first turn through arbitration compared to Robert’s guaranteed $20MM. Pittsburgh may just be doing their due diligence, though the likeliest outcome is that Robert stays put in Chicago through the offseason.

Photo courtesy of Matt Marton, Imagn Images

Mets’ Trade Talks With Padres Involve Nick Pivetta, Ramon Laureano, Mason Miller

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The Mets and Padres have been discussing the possibility of a trade that would send established talent to New York while San Diego obtained MLB-ready younger talent and some salary relief.  According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, Dennis Lin, and Will Sammon, right-hander Nick Pivetta, outfielder Ramon Laureano, and star relievers Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada are players of interest for New York.  The Padres have shown interest in the Mets’ “young major leaguers and all of their top prospects, both pitchers and position players,” including Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong.

The Athletic’s reporters made a point of noting that Francisco Lindor, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth weren’t brought up in these negotiations.  This only somewhat lessens the blockbuster potential here given all of the high-profile names already under discussion, though it is also possible that the talks remain somewhat exploratory in nature.  As Rosenthal/Lin/Sammon note, San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is always “weighing a dizzying number of possible moves and contingency plans,” and Mets PBO David Stearns is likewise no stranger to major trade concepts.

Pivetta’s name surfaced in trade rumors earlier this week, and Preller recently downplayed the idea that the Padres would trade any of their top bullpen arms.  San Diego had an elite relief corps in 2025, but one major name from that group is already gone since closer Robert Suarez left for the Braves in free agency.  The depleted nature of the Friars’ rotation also puts more pressure on the bullpen to pick up more of the run-prevention slack, and by that same token, makes it seemingly less likely that the Padres would trade Pivetta and further diminish the starting staff.

That said, Pivetta can opt out of his contract following the 2026 season.  The backloaded four-year, $55MM contract Pivetta signed last season still has $51MM remaining, which breaks down as $19MM in 2026, a $14MM player option for 2027, and an $18MM player option for 2028 if Pivetta chooses to remain in San Diego next winter.  The 2027 player option turns into a club option in the event of a long-term injury, but if Pivetta has the same kind of healthy and very effective season that he posted in 2025, he’ll surely trigger his opt-out.

If Preller could turn Pivetta into multiple controllable players who can still help the Padres win in 2026, that would be quite a way of threading the needle for the long-time executive.  The Mets wouldn’t have much interest in giving up one of their top young talents for what might well be just one year of Pivetta’s services, and McLean might not be available at any price — the Athletic trio write that “McLean is thought to be untouchable, or close to it.”  The New York Post’s Jon Heyman adds that outfield prospect Carson Benge is also considered to be virtually unavailable in trade talks.

By comparison, the likes of Tong, Sproat, and Jett Williams may be more available, though Stearns has been naturally hesitant about trading away any top minor leaguers.  A trade package of Pivetta, Laureano as a short-term outfield add for 2026, and a reliever with four seasons of control like Miller or Estrada might well convince Stearns to part ways with some premium prospect talent, but on the other hand, that would be a lot for the Padres to move in a single trade.

The Athletic’s writers note that the Padres might get a greater overall return by sending Pivetta, Laureano, etc. elsewhere in individual deals, so it would take a gigantic trade package for the club to include multiple trade chips into a single swap.  For Miller in particular, San Diego would want a ton back, given how much the Padres had to give up to land the closer from the A’s just last July.

Getting Pivetta’s salary off the books is one way for the Padres to shake up the roster given the team’s limited payroll flexibility, while short-term commitments to Pivetta and Laureano probably hold more appeal to Stearns than signing free agents to longer-term contracts.  The sky is the limit when two creative executives like Preller and Stearns are cooking up trade scenarios, so this is certainly a situation worth monitoring as the offseason progresses.

Braves Sign Robert Suarez

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The Braves further solidified the back of their bullpen Thursday, announcing the signing of former Padres closer Robert Suarez on a three-year, $45MM contract. Suarez, a client of Primo Sports Group, became a free agent at season’s end when he opted out of the final two years and $16MM on his five-year contract with San Diego. He’ll be paid $13MM in 2026 and $16MM in both 2027 and 2028, per the team. There are reportedly no deferrals in the contract. Atlanta designated lefty Ryan Rolison for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster (more on that move here).

The 34-year-old Suarez (35 in March) went directly from Mexico to Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball late last decade and, after establishing himself as one of the top relievers in NPB, has broken out as a top-tier reliever in the majors. Originally signed on a two-year deal with the Padres, he opted out after one year and inked a five-year, $46MM extension that afforded him another opt-out provision after the third year, which he took last month.

Now Atlanta-bound, Suarez has consistently posted quality numbers in high-leverage spots for the Friars. Dating back to his 2022 MLB debut, he’s posted a 2.91 ERA with a 26.5% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate in 210 innings. Suarez sits just under 99 mph with his four-seamer and complements the pitch with a changeup that got great results in ’22-’23 but has been hit hard the past two seasons. It hasn’t led to poor results, however, because Suarez’s fastball and sinker both grade out as dominant offerings.

Suarez joins right-hander Raisel Iglesias, who re-upped on a one-year, $16MM contract earlier in the offseason, to form a potent one-two punch at the back of new manager Walt Weiss’ bullpen. Notably, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Iglesias will continue to serve as the closer in Atlanta. Suarez will operate as his primary setup man (and, of course, can handle save opportunities in the event that Iglesias is unavailable or suffers an injury). Setup work is nothing new for Suarez, who in 2022 helped set up for Taylor Rogers and in 2023 was a key setup arm for Josh Hader.

On the surface, a three-year, $45MM contract for a high-end reliever feels fairly well in line with contractual norms around the game. However, Suarez’s camp did quite well to get him the third guaranteed year. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, this is the first deal of three or more years for a 35-year-old (or older) reliever since Will Harris signed for $24MM with the Nationals prior to the 2020 season. Before that, you’d have to go all the way back to Ryan Madson’s three-year pact with the A’s back in 2015 to find another example of a bullpen arm being paid for this long of a term at Suarez’s age.

Adding Suarez brings Atlanta’s 2026 payroll up to about $241MM. RosterResource estimates that the team is carrying more than $236MM worth of luxury-tax considerations, which places them within $8MM of the 2026 season’s $244MM first-tier luxury threshold. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has already checked several items off his winter to-do list, though Atlanta still figures to be open to additions at shortstop, on the bench and/or on the pitching staff. That said, re-signing Iglesias, acquiring utilityman Mauricio Dubon and bringing in both Suarez and outfielder Mike Yastrzemski (on a two-year, $23MM deal) has removed some of the urgency to make further additions.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the agreement and the terms of the contract. The Athletic’s Will Sammon first reported the year-to-year breakdown.

Preller: Fernando Tatis Jr. Not Available In Trade Talks

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The Padres’ payroll reduction (relative to its 2023 peak) and limited of financial flexibility this offseason has led to plenty of hope from other clubs about the possibility of prying star right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. away from San Diego. However, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller decisively stated at the end of this week’s Winter Meetings that the three-time All-Star won’t be changing hands.

“He’s one of the best players in baseball, is a two-time Platinum (Glove) winner,” Preller told Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune in response to Tatis speculation. “The guy has taken over portions of seasons and games and playoff series and everything like that. … Every one of the different versions and iterations of the team and roster we put up there, it’s ’Tati’ right in the middle. Hopefully, he is one of the top players on our team this year. He’s somebody that we’re not talking about, however you want to say that. If you want to say that’s ’untouchable,’ you can say that.”

A trade of Tatis has never seemed particularly likely, though some around the industry have wondered whether it’ll eventually be necessary, given the uncertainty surrounding Padres ownership and the ongoing efforts to scale back payroll. San Diego has reduced its spending considerably since the passing of late owner Peter Seidler. Earlier this offseason, Seidler’s brother, John, who has since been named the team’s control person, announced that his family will explore a sale of the franchise.

That announcement came less than one year after a tumultuous and very public-facing quarrel between Sheel Seidler — Peter’s widow — and the other two Seidler brothers, Bob and Matt. Back in February, Sheel filed suit against Bob and Matt Seidler, alleging that they’ve breached fiduciary duty and committed fraud as successors of Peter’s trust. She accused her brothers-in-law of selling assets to themselves “far” below market prices in an effort to consolidate control of the franchise and of violating Peter’s wishes that she serve as interim control person before passing ownership onto the couple’s children at a later date. Matt Seidler contested the suit in a formal response wherein he accused his sister-in-law of attempting to “manufacture claims against the Trustees in pursuit of the control that Peter intentionally chose not to give her.” To date, the suits have not been litigated, nor is there any indication that a settlement has been reached.

For the time being, none of that off-field tension seems to have an impact on Tatis’ status with the club. Certainly, an eventual ownership change could create a different financial outlook in San Diego one way or another, particularly considering the remaining nine years and $286MM on Tatis’ contract.

Hefty as that sum may be, it bears emphasizing that it’s still a “bargain” relative to what Tatis would command on the open market. Had Tatis never penned that extension, he’d be a first-time free agent right now, having accumulated his sixth year of MLB service in 2025.

Tatis would be a 26-year-old (27 in January) coming off a .268/.368/.446 showing (131 wRC+) with 25 home runs, 27 doubles two triples, 32 steals (in 39 tries) and career-best walk and strikeout rates (12.9% and 18.7%, respectively). As Preller referenced, he’s a two-time Platinum Glove winner (and three-time Gold Glove winner). Tatis has hit at least 21 home runs in every 162-game season he’s played (plus 17 in the shortened 60-game season back in 2020).

Given his youth, borderline elite production at the plate and superlative defense, Tatis would have been the clear top free agent in this offseason’s class, likely in line for a contract running into his late 30s or even age-40 season. He may not have matched Juan Soto’s jaw-dropping $765MM guarantee, but Tatis would very likely have been in line for a contract even larger than the 14-year, $500MM extension signed by fellow second-generation star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. last spring. He’s been worth an average of about 6.5 wins above replacement (6.4 fWAR, 6.6 bWAR) per 162 games played in his career to this point.

Though the Padres won’t be moving Tatis anytime soon, San Diego is exploring other ways to create more financial flexibility. As was reported earlier in the month, the Friars are at least listening on Jake Cronenworth, if not shopping him, and have been willing to hear out clubs who’ve expressed interest in right-hander Nick Pivetta. RosterResource projects the Padres for a payroll of about $201MM right now. Ownership wants to keep the 2026 payroll roughly in line with last year’s mark, around $224MM, which is down from the team’s rough $255MM peak in 2023 but considerably higher than spending levels under prior ownership groups.

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