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Padres Met Recently With Manny Machado

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The Padres held a meeting earlier this week with star free agent Manny Machado, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. It does not appear that an agreement is imminent, but it seems fair to say that there’s still serious interest from the San Diego organization.

While the Friars have long been connected to Machado, it has never been clear how serious the team was about pulling off a surprise blockbuster. As the club continues to look for ways to move from a rebuilding phase to contention, it has also held a recent sit-down with Bryce Harper, the other shockingly unclaimed prize of the free agent market.

[RELATED: Projecting Payrolls: San Diego Padres]

Padres GM A.J. Preller is said to have met with Machado and his wife. It is not known whether anyone else participated in the meeting. Neither is it clear what level of contract the Padres are willing to put on the table — or whether they have in fact issued a formal offer. Clearly, though, the fact that a meeting occurred at this stage of the proceedings indicates that the connection is a serious one.

Projecting Payrolls: San Diego Padres

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As we still continue to wait for the new homes of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, let’s move on to the 14th team payroll projection. Below find the links to the earlier posts in this series.

Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox
Minnesota Twins
Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
New York Mets

If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.

Today, we look into a club whose rebuild has yielded one of baseball’s top farm systems: the San Diego Padres.

Team Leadership

In the realm of sports franchise ownership, the Padres got off to a rough start. C. Arnholdt Smith founded the team in 1969, but when software executive John Moores bought the team in 1994, he became the fourth distinct owner in just a 25-year span, an unseemly rate of turnover for the club. Moores held the club as majority owner for a significant period of time, but it wasn’t without its own upheaval: in 2009, a group led by agent Jeff Moorad purchased a significant minority stake in the Padres with the intention of completing the remaining purchase of the team in the coming years. Instead, after years of trying by Moorad, the team was sold in 2012 to an ownership group led by Ron Fowler (who now serves as chairman) and Peter Seidler (presently titled the organization’s general partner).

Since August 2014, the baseball operations department has been headed by executive vice president and general manager A.J. Preller. Preller inherited a team that had won 75 games per year from 2011-14 and in the first four years under his leadership, the team went on to win just 70 per year. Nevertheless, Preller received an extension in October 2017 due in large part to his efforts building a successful farm system.

The team is yet to make a postseason run under Preller (or Fowler/Seidler, for that matter), but to be fair, they won just one playoff game in the 14 years prior to the 2012 sale.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Padres, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. This period covers the transition from Moores to Fowler and Seidler’s ownership and includes Preller’s first attempt to buy a winner, so this provides an excellent window into what to expect from the club as they rev up to contend again. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

Although the Padres have never been a top spender among Major League clubs, payroll underwent a meteoric rise during the first few years under new ownership, nearly tripling from 2010 to 2015 before tumbling again when Preller’s first attempt at constructing a winner backfired.

The Padres have never come remotely close to incurring a luxury tax bill, oftentimes ending with a payroll $100 million under the tax line. However, the team became a major spender on international amateur talent prior to the new system clamping down on substantial expenditures in that space, giving out the following bonuses in the 2016 class alone: $11 million to Cuban lefty Adrian Morejon, $4 million to Dominican shortstop Luis Almanzar, $3 million to Cuban righty Michel Baez, and at least five other bonuses between $1 million and $2 million each. Despite the paltry annual Major League payrolls and the smaller media market when compared to the behemoths of baseball, the Padres under Preller approached the international amateur space like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Cubs until a new Collective Bargaining Agreement closed that door. A major chunk of franchise spending was embedded here.

Future Liabilities

The Padres sheet is really interesting. Let’s take a look and then examine the numbers.

Let’s look at this one backward, from the bottom to the top.

The Padres have a significant chunk of their 2019 spending tied up in players who won’t be wearing Padres uniforms this year. Hughes appears to be the biggest number at first glance, but thanks to the contribution from the Twins, San Diego owes him just $7.25 million. More importantly, the purpose of that deal wasn’t Hughes: it was San Diego’s ability to draft and sign Texas Tech oufielder Grant Little with the 74th pick in the 2018 draft, acquired from the Twins alongside Hughes.

The largest commitment belongs to Hector Olivera at $16 million over the next two years. Signed by the Dodgers, Olivera was traded to the Braves, suspended for domestic violence, and then the Padres acquired his contract when offloading Matt Kemp’s remaining deal to Atlanta.

Makita failed as a bullpen import last year, while Wood failed as a trade import in 2017, leaving 2018 dead money and the buyout of his 2019 option that was split with Kansas City. Neither amount is significant.

Finally, Gyorko, Shields, and Richard also won’t play for the Padres in 2019. For Gyorko and Shields, this year represents the final year of multi-year payouts of bad decisions. For Richard, San Diego caught a break when Toronto claimed him off of waivers and agreed to take on half of his $3 million guarantee for 2019.

Add it all up and the net dead money on the San Diego books is $25.9 million in 2019, $8.5 million in 2020, and nothing beyond. Keep this in mind.

Small, short-term commitments to Kinsler and Stammen don’t move the needle much, though both figure to get a chance to play meaningful roles for the team in 2019.

Richards, on the other hand, gets yet another chance to show that he can get and stay healthy over the course of a southern California season, this time with the Padres instead of the Angels. That chance, of course, will come in 2020 after Richards underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2018.

Finally, we hit the two big numbers: Myers and Hosmer. Myers showed tremendous promise early in his career with the Rays and he excelled with San Diego in 2016, totaling 28 homers and steals while getting on base well. Unfortunately, nagging wrist injuries an an inexplicable experiment at third base have hampered his overall value in recent years. Just 28, Myers still has time to re-emerge even if the early returns on his extension have been poor. Add it all up and he has $72.5 million remaining over the next four guaranteed years, including his 2023 buyout. Not good. But not crippling.

Hosmer, similarly, provided terrible early returns on his big deal. He comically has an average WAR in even-numbered years of -0.4 compared to 2.9 in odd-numbered years, including 3.6 over his non-rookie odd-numbered years. I’m not here to stump for the even-year/odd-year split, but Hosmer has shown a trend. The Padres will surely hope to see a massive rebound from their marquee investment in 2019. Like Myers, Hosmer is still in his 20s (29). Hosmer is due $80 million over the next four years before he decides whether to hit free agency in advance of his age-33 season or keep his three-year, $39 million golden parachute.

The Padres arbitration table is arguably the leanest one we’ve seen thus far in the series:

Despite being 5’10” and nearly 32 years old, Yates figures to occupy a key role in 2019 coming off of a stellar 2018 that saw peak production and a repeat of his 2017 velocity jump. Yates figures to play an important role for the team, either as the closer or as this year’s Brad Hand, fetching a sizable return in July.

Hedges is an excellent defensive catcher and provided offense around the league average for his position last year.

Erlin excelled in a swing role in 2018 returning from Tommy John surgery, coming in under one walk per nine innings while setting career highs in velocity on every pitch. He’s worth keeping an eye on in 2019.

The remaining names — Jankowski, Mitchell, and Garcia — simply don’t move the needle much (unless the needle is moved by pure speed, in which case Jankowski moves it a ton).

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

At a time when most franchises are talking about payroll efficiency and ducking the luxury tax, Preller’s end-of-season comments were a breath of fresh air. In looking to 2019, Preller stated that “I feel like we’re going to have some financial flexibility, because a lot of the players are younger players. And we’re at that point from a plan standpoint where we’re going to have to supplement from the outside — be it the free agent or trade route. We’ll look to do that in the next few months.”

Fowler and Seidler, on the other hand, made waves this offseason by opening the team’s books to the San Diego Union-Tribune and revealing that they are (i) primarily focused on reducing the team’s debt load, and (ii) still hung up on the inefficient use of cash from 2015. Fowler mentioned that 2015’s $40 million payroll bump yielded just $15 million in additional ticket/concession/merchandise revenue, continuing that “It really convicted me…We had a blip in terms of revenue…(and) we dug a big hole for ourselves.”

That does not sound like an ownership group interested in spending big dollars anytime soon.

Are the Padres a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

Yes. Definitely. Or at least they definitely should be.

The Padres don’t immediately make oodles of sense as a player at the top of the market, but they check off every other box for being a team that pursues one of these elite talents.

First and foremost, ownership has shown the penchant to spend on a winner as Preller’s 2015 experiment showed.

Second, ownership has shown a penchant to spend on “the right player” as last year’s massive deal for Hosmer showed.

Third, the Padres have a window of contention that will blow open in the next year or two.

Fourth, thanks to shrewd trades and superb drafting and development, that contender will be fueled almost entirely by players making the league minimum. The Padres have assembled one of the truly great collections of farm talent in the modern history of the game. I could go into great detail here, but instead, I’ll let the introduction to the club’s top prospect list over at Baseball Prospectus do the talking: “their full-slot, top-ten first-round pick from this year’s draft is ranked 12th overall.” If you have any interest in prospect accumulation, take a look at the Padres system and how it was built.

Fifth, they have southern California geography on their side with both a pleasing climate and proximity to Harper’s home in Las Vegas.

Sixth, they have a desperate need for an impact bat (or two) and the two spots that make the most sense for housing this bat are (i) outfield, and (ii) shortstop or third base (wherever stud infielder Fernando Tatis Jr. isn’t playing).

Seventh, outside of Hosmer and Myers, the Padres don’t have any major salaries on the books and their current Major League players heading into arbitration in the next few years won’t receive substantial awards. There simply isn’t much in the way of earmarked money going forward, be it currently guaranteed or coming through arbitration.

Eighth, the immediate payoff could be significant as the Rockies stood pat this winter aside from Daniel Murphy, the Diamondbacks kicked off a rebuild, and the Giants have thus far made modest additions.

Considering the above factors and the glacial pace of the Harper/Machado market to date, it should come as no surprise that the Padres began openly poking around the market for the superstars last week.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

At this stage in the offseason, payroll is quite low at $87.6 million. This would represent a 6.8 percent drop in payroll from 2018’s Opening Day payroll. As a reminder, 2018’s Opening Day payroll was 5.3 percent below 2016’s opening day payroll. And 2016’s Opening Day payroll was 8.4 percent below 2015’s. Add it all up and this year’s Opening Day payroll would be 19.2 percent below 2015’s high water mark. In the estimate of Forbes, the franchise’s value has increased over 29.9 percent during that time.

So is this it? Is this the new normal for the Padres, same as the old normal?

Something doesn’t add up to me. The Padres sported a payroll north of $100 million in 2015 and spent nearly $100 million in 2016 while spending about $25 million on international amateurs, all while saddled with a much more notable debt burden.

There’s a scenario in play where the organization truly doesn’t want to spend, thus keeping payroll at its current level below $90 million and saving cash for…well, I’m not sure exactly. But that doesn’t line up with recent practice. The club lacks major commitments going forward and needs a big boost with a front office and ownership group that has shown a willingness to make a splash. I bet Fowler and Seidler authorize another big swing.

Keep in mind that the numbers projected below would still be below 2015 and 2016 aggregate spending levels…and that the team sees more than $20 million in dead money drop off of its books next year.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $115 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $27.4 million

Brad Wieck Underwent Surgery For Testicular Cancer

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Padres lefty Brad Wieck was diagnosed with testicular cancer earlier this year, as AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports. The 27-year-old hurler went under the knife not long thereafter. Fortunately, the medical prognosis appears to be good, though it’s obviously something that’ll be watched closely by doctors. Though Wieck will be building back to full strength during camp, it seems his outlook on the field also remains promising. He could return to the hill in the next few weeks, it seems, and could again present the team with a MLB option after making his debut during a promising 2018 campaign.

A.J. Ellis Reportedly Set To Join Padres In Baseball Ops Role

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The Padres have agreed to hire A.J. Ellis as a special assistant to GM A.J. Preller’s baseball operations department, according to MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (via Twitter).

Ellis’s precise role remains to be seen, but it obviously will not be as a uniformed player. He’ll wrap up his playing career after spending parts of eleven seasons in the majors.

It’s at least a bit of a surprise to see Ellis hang up his spikes now. After all, he turned in 183 plate appearances of .272/.378/.344 hitting last year for the San Diego organization. As ever, he compensated for a lack of power with outstanding plate discipline and contact ability.

In his 2,303 total plate appearances in the big leagues, Ellis managed only 44 long balls and a .113 isolated power mark, but walked at a hefty 12.2% rate. He managed to be nearly a league-average overall offensive producer by carrying a 5.5% swinging-strike rate and offering at pitches out of the zone at less than a twenty percent clip. (Check the 2018 leaderboards in SwStr and O-Swing% and you’ll see how notable those figures are.)

Ellis finished out his career with the Phillies, Marlins, and Friars, but he will be remembered best for his longstanding tenure with the Dodgers — and, in particular, his relationship with the great Clayton Kershaw. The two shared the field for 829 total innings, even though most of Ellis’s nine seasons in Los Angeles came in a reserve role. When the end came for Ellis in L.A. in the middle of the 2016 season, the two friends were moved to tears. Ellis also had a rather notable run of postseason success for the Dodgers, turning in a .365/.450/.615 slash in 61 total plate appearances, though he never had a chance to play in a World Series.

Latest On Padres' Outfield

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Checking In On The Worst Rotations Of 2018

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Last Sunday, we took a look at the improvements (or lack thereof) the worst bullpens of the 2018 major league season have made since the winter began. Today’s edition will focus on the sorriest rotations from 2018, when the starting staffs of the Orioles, Rangers, Blue Jays, Padres and White Sox posted ERAs upward of 5.00. Those teams also fared poorly in terms of fWAR, unsurprisingly, with the Orioles, Rangers, Padres and White Sox joining the Reds to make up the majors’ bottom five in that department. Even though spring training is set to open across the league, there are still some quality starters remaining in free agency, so it’s possible these teams aren’t done yet. For now, though, most of these staffs leave much to be desired heading into the new season.

White Sox (2018 fWAR: 30th; 2018 ERA: 26th; projected 2019 rotation via Roster Resource): Last year’s White Sox received 30-plus starts from each of James Shields, Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito, but only Lopez managed adequate production. He and Giolito, two former high-end prospects, will once again take up 40 percent of Chicago’s rotation this season, while Shields is currently without a job. Carlos Rodon is also back as one of the team’s most proven starters, albeit after disappointing over 20 appearances in 2018. At least one newcomer – righty Ivan Nova, acquired from the Pirates in December – will slot in near the top of their staff, and fellow offseason pickup Manny Banuelos could join him in the starting five. The 32-year-old Nova isn’t going to wow anyone, but he’s a perfectly cromulent major league starter, having recorded ERAs in the low-4.00s and thrown 160-plus frames in each of the past three seasons. The 27-year-old Banuelos – a trade pickup from the Dodgers – is a former big-time prospect, but the lefty hasn’t appeared in the majors since 2015, when he totaled the only six starts of his career as a member of the Braves.

Given the lack of major league success Giolito, Banuelos, and depth options Dylan Covey and Carson Fulmer have experienced, the White Sox would be well served to land more rotation possibilities before the season. Their situation would look a lot better if not for the Tommy John surgery prized prospect Michael Kopech underwent last September. He’ll miss the entire season as a result, though Chicago could get its first look at its No. 2 pitching prospect, Dylan Cease, this year.

Orioles (2018 fWAR: 29th; 2018 ERA: 30th; projected 2019 rotation): Thanks in part to a less-than-stellar rotation, this is going to be the second ugly season in a row for the rebuilding Orioles. Internal improvement is possible, though, as returning starters Dylan Bundy, Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner have all shown themselves capable of providing much better numbers than the production they registered over a combined 87 starts in 2018. Inexpensive free-agent signing Nate Karns is also a bounce-back candidate after sitting out most of 2017 and all of ’18 as he recovered from the dreaded thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. Aside from those four – any of whom could end up on the block during the season – no starting option on the Orioles’ 40-man roster has achieved success in the majors. Moreover, their farm system isn’t teeming with hurlers who are in line to make MLB impacts this season. With that in mind, rookie general manager Mike Elias may still be scouring the free-agent market for another cheap stopgap(s) after inking Karns earlier this week.

Padres (2018 fWAR: 28th; 2018 ERA: 27th; projected 2019 rotation): The Padres shrewdly signed former Angel Garrett Richards, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, back in November. But Richards won’t return until later in the season, if he pitches at all in 2019. Other than Richards, the Padres haven’t picked up any starters of note this winter. It hasn’t been for lack of effort, though, as they’ve been connected to the likes of Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, Dallas Keuchel, Marcus Stroman and Mike Leake, among others, in the rumor mill during recent months. Syndergaard and Kluber probably aren’t going anywhere, but Keuchel remains available in free agency and both Stroman and Leake could still be trade candidates. Having failed to secure anyone from that group, the Padres continue to possess an underwhelming rotation – one that received a combined 49 starts from the now-departed duo of Clayton Richard and Tyson Ross last season. However, Chris Paddack and Logan Allen, top-100 prospects and a couple of the many prizes in a San Diego system laden with talent, may debut sometime this year.

Rangers (2018 fWAR: 27th; 2018 ERA: 29th; projected 2019 rotation): Of the seven Rangers who accrued the most starts in 2018, only one – lefty Mike Minor – remains. Fortunately for Texas, Minor was easily the best member of the club’s subpar septet. He’s now part of a completely remade starting staff which has reeled in Lance Lynn (three years, $30MM) and Shelby Miller (one year, $2MM) in free agency and Drew Smyly via trade with the Cubs. The team also has 2018 signing Edinson Volquez returning after he missed all of last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. In all, it’s not the most compelling quintet, and it’s anyone’s guess what Miller, Smyly and Volquez will offer after their recent injury-wrecked seasons, but all five have at least shown flashes in the majors.

The soon-to-be 32-year-old Lynn has been effective and durable for most of his career; Miller’s a former star prospect who prevented runs at an excellent clip from 2014-16; Smyly generally impressed as a starter over the same three-year span as Miller; and Volquez has five seasons of 170-plus frames under his belt. Meanwhile, other than newly added minor league signing Jason Hammel, the Rangers’ depth options have virtually no major league accomplishments. A few of their top-10 prospects – Jonathan Hernandez, Taylor Hearn and Joe Palumbo – are climbing up the minor league ladder and could be in Arlington soon, however.

Reds (2018 fWAR: 26th; 2018 ERA: 25th; projected 2019 rotation): The Reds boasted a mostly healthy rotation in 2018, as six pitchers each made at least 20 starts, but no one was particularly good. Consequently, the Reds have acquired three proven MLB starters in various trades this offseason, having picked up Sonny Gray from the Yankees, Alex Wood from the Dodgers and Tanner Roark from the Nationals. There isn’t an ace among the trio, but all three are credible major league starters – which the Reds desperately needed, especially considering Matt Harvey walked in free agency. High-potential holdovers Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani, who have been inconsistent in the majors, will comprise the rest of Cincinnati’s upgraded rotation to begin the season. The Reds’ new additions will push 2018 regulars Sal Romano (25 starts of 5.48 ERA/5.10 FIP ball) and Tyler Mahle (23 starts, 4.98 ERA/5.25 FIP) into depth roles, which is a plus, as is the end of the Homer Bailey era. The Reds sent Bailey and the remains of his bloated contract to the Dodgers when they traded for Wood and outfielders Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp in a blockbuster December deal. Bailey produced catastrophic results from 2017-18, a 38-start, 197 1/3-inning span in which he mustered a 6.25 ERA.

Blue Jays (2018 fWAR: 22nd; 2018 ERA: 28th; projected 2019 rotation): The Blue Jays’ rotation handily outdid the above teams’ by fWAR last year, yet the unit still compiled the majors’ third-worst ERA. Toronto has since made modest acquisitions by trading for Richard and signing Matt Shoemaker (one year, $3.5MM). They’ll serve as placeholders for a Jays team which is at least another full year away from vying for a playoff spot, and may listen to offers for its top two starters – Stroman and Aaron Sanchez – during the upcoming season. Both Stroman and Sanchez have been outstanding at times, but that wasn’t true of either in 2018, and the two are now entering their second-last seasons of team control. Stroman and Sanchez remain atop Toronto’s rotation for the time being, with all parties hoping the righties return to their past productive and healthy ways in 2019. Beyond those two, Richard, Shoemaker and Ryan Borucki, the Blue Jays don’t possess any starters who have done much in the majors, though Sam Gaviglio (37 starts), Sean Reid-Foley (seven) and Thomas Pannone (six) have at least gained some experience.

Padres Pursuing Mike Moustakas

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The Brewers are reportedly the front-runners to sign free-agent third baseman Mike Moustakas, but they’re facing competition from at least one team. The Padres, who have prioritized finding a third baseman this offseason, are “going after” Moustakas, according to AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. San Diego first “checked in” on Moustakas earlier this winter, and Cassavell’s report indicates the club is legitimately in pursuit of the 30-year-old at this late stage of the offseason.

This is the second straight drawn-out trip to the open market for Moustakas, who was shockingly available until last March before re-signing with the Royals for a $6.5MM guarantee. While Moustakas entered last winter with designs on landing a lucrative multiyear deal, that was before the free-agent process became unkind to even the most proven veterans available. This is the second year in a row a slew of familiar names are unemployed as spring training approaches, and even elite free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado haven’t found deals to their liking yet. With that in mind, it’s not surprising Moustakas is still searching for a contract. Some of the teams that could sign Moustakas are likely awaiting Machado’s decision first, after all, and the former did turn in a 2018 showing which was almost identical to his 2017 performance.

Last year, in 152 games divided between the Royals and Brewers, Moustakas offered slightly above-average offensive numbers, hitting .251/.315/.459 (105 wRC+) with 28 home runs in 635 plate appearances. He paired that output with respectable defense at third, where he posted two DRS and a plus-one Ultimate Zone Rating, en route to 2.4 fWAR (he logged 2.1 fWAR in 598 PAs during the prior campaign).

Based on the production Moustakas has recorded in recent years and throughout most of his career, he’d give the Padres an average regular at third. Moustakas, then, is a far less compelling option than Machado – who has also drawn the Padres’ interest – but would nonetheless give the Friars a credible starter at the hot corner. It seems they’re lacking that at the moment, evidenced by the untested Ty France being their projected starter at the position, after waving goodbye to the unspectacular 2018 duo of Christian Villanueva and Cory Spangenberg earlier this offseason. While the Padres still have Wil Myers, who played 36 games at third last season, the team’s plan to shift him back to a full-time outfield role during the upcoming campaign remains intact, Cassavell hears. Likewise, big-hitting catcher prospect Francisco Mejia, who saw a bit of action at third while a member of Cleveland’s farm system, will not be a hot corner choice for San Diego, per Cassavell.

Should he sign with the Padres, Moustakas would reunite him with his friend, first baseman Eric Hosmer, as the two were teammates in Kansas City from 2011-17. However, if the Padres miss on Moustakas (not to mention Machado), they could turn their attention to another of the established third base possibilities still without jobs. Marwin Gonzalez – whom San Diego targeted earlier this winter – remains a free agent, as do Derek Dietrich, Logan Forsythe, Josh Harrison and ex-Padre Yangervis Solarte. Barring a trade, someone from that group may well end up in a Padres uniform before the season begins.

Latest On J.T. Realmuto

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SUNDAY: The Rays “appear content” with their current lineup, according to the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin, who adds it would be “unexpected” for the club to make any more trades with spring training nearing. That seems to cast doubt on the possibility of the Rays acquiring Realmuto.

SATURDAY: Twists and turns continue in the saga of Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, who has been a dominant presence in trade rumors throughout the offseason. As of Thursday, the Padres, Reds, Dodgers and Braves were reportedly the last remaining suitors for Realmuto, but the Rays have worked their way back into the mix, according to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. While it seemed earlier this week that Tampa Bay had exited the race for Realmuto, the club has “re-engaged” as spring training nears, per Frisaro.

Fresh off a surprising 90-win season in 2018, the Rays entered the winter as candidates to make noteworthy upgrades, despite their low-payroll ways, but have mostly shied away from headline-grabbing moves. The Rays’ biggest pickup thus far has been right-hander Charlie Morton, whom they inked to a two-year, $30MM contract, and they’ve also reeled in the less expensive trio of catcher Mike Zunino (via trade with Seattle), infielder Yandy Diaz (via trade with Cleveland) and outfielder Avisail Garcia (one year, $3.5MM guarantee). With those four in tow, the Rays are only projected to open the season with a $59MM-plus payroll – far below their $76MM-plus mark from 2018 – as Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates.

Fortunately for the small-spending Rays, acquiring Realmuto would not cause a sizable dent in their budget. He’ll earn $5.9MM this year, his second-last arbitration season, and that relatively inexpensive sum only increases his appeal from their standpoint. At the same time, it also helps explain why the Marlins have been holding out for a bounty for the soon-to-be 28-year-old Realmuto, who was the majors’ top catcher last season. And the Rays, whose farm system features nine of ESPN’s Keith Law’s top-100 prospects (subscription required), likely have the ammunition to get a deal done if they’re motivated.

However, should the Rays land Realmuto, it’s an open question whether Zunino would remain in place. Tampa Bay could simply keep Zunino as Realmuto’s backup, thus giving it the game’s best behind-the-plate tandem, but the former may once again become a trade chip in his own right. With a quality track record, two years of arbitration eligibility remaining and a sub-$4.5MM salary for 2019, Zunino could bring back a player(s) capable of helping the Rays’ roster at another position. Zunino has already netted a solid return in a trade once this offseason, as the Rays acquired him in a five-player deal in which they parted with a cheap, starting-caliber outfielder in Mallex Smith.

The Marlins, meanwhile, may receive a Realmuto replacement as part of a trade, which could make Zunino an attractive target for them. While that’s merely speculation, they have discussed veteran backstop Tucker Barnhart in trade talks with the Reds, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com tweets. Additionally, a potential deal with Cincinnati could include 22-year-old third baseman Jonathan India (previously reported) – whom the Reds selected fifth overall in last summer’s draft – as well as at least one “lesser” prospect, Mayo relays. Acquiring Realmuto would be the latest sign that Cincinnati’s aiming to return to contention in 2019. The Reds are currently coming off their fifth straight sub-.500 season and fourth straight campaign with fewer than 70 wins, but they’ve since picked up a slew of household names in various trades.

Like the Reds, the Padres seem hopeful they’ll put several years of irrelevance behind them during the upcoming season. Although the Padres haven’t made any significant improvements yet, they’ve been connected to Realmuto and other stars in the rumor mill. Trading for Realmuto would surely take a bite out of the Padres’ loaded farm system –  a unit which includes a whopping 10 top-100 prospects, per Law; subscription required). Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported last week that the Marlins wanted big-hitting catcher prospect Francisco Mejia from the Padres in exchange for Realmuto, but it doesn’t seem that’s the case anymore. At this point, Miami’s interest in Mejia isn’t “especially high,” according to Morosi, Therefore, it’s “likely” that the Marlins would instead need one of Fernando Tatis Jr., MacKenzie Gore or Luis Urias from the Padres in a Realmuto package, Morosi writes. Tatis, Gore and Urias rank first, second and fourth among the Padres’ prospects at MLB.com, which places Mejia third.

It’s currently anyone’s guess which uniform Realmuto will don in 2019, but it seems we’ll find out in the coming days. The Marlins are within two weeks of opening camp, and it’s unlikely Realmuto will still be on their roster at that point, Frisaro suggests.

Padres Meet With Bryce Harper

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Feb. 2, 2:53pm: Per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the San Diego brass sees Harper as a “business/marketing opportunity” and “may now lean” toward securing his services over those of Manny Machado, despite their obvious need at 3B and swarm of young, controllable corner outfielders.

Jan. 31, 11:24pm: Acee has an update on tonight’s meeting, in which Padres general partner Peter Seidler joined GM A.J. Preller and skipper Andy Green to make the pitch. Per the report, the San Diego contingent was “extremely prepared and seemed sincere about wooing” Harper.

11:40am: The Padres’ entry into the Harper bidding is more “extended due diligence,” and is not as serious as their interest in Machado, writes Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The surprising lack of suitors for Harper has helped to fuel San Diego’s interest, he adds.

Meanwhile, Rosenthal tweets that the meeting will take place tonight. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi calls the Padres one of four suitors for Harper, alongside the Phillies, White Sox and Nationals, noting that one other club remains “on [the] periphery” (Twitter link).

10:44am: The Padres will meet with free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper in Las Vegas today or tomorrow, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Padres ownership is “expected” to be represented at the meeting, and Rosenthal further notes that Harper and agent Scott Boras have met with other teams “in recent days,” though there’s still no signs that a deal close.

The news of a meeting with Harper comes on the heels of last week’s report that the Padres are pursuing Manny Machado and planning a similar sitdown with him, although MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted last night that the Padres/Machado meeting has still not taken place. Nevertheless, the Padres’ surprise emergence as a potential suitor for the market’s top two free agents is of note, and the very fact that in-person meetings are being scheduled shows a level of interest that many teams throughout the league have not expressed.

Outfield isn’t exactly an area of need for the Friars, who already have Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Franchy Cordero, Franmil Reyes and Travis Jankowski on the roster. Harper, though, would nonetheless represent an upgrade in right field and would further allow the Padres to explore the trades of younger, controllable outfielders. It’s also possible that Harper’s market hasn’t progressed to the level that San Diego initially expected, and ownership has agreed to a meeting to determine whether there’s a plausible fit. The Padres did sign another high-profile Boras client, Eric Hosmer, to an eight-year deal worth $144MM last winter, and the organization surely feels it is now closer to contending than it was at that point, even if doing so in 2019 is a long shot (with or without Harper).

The Hosmer contract was already a significant expenditure for the typically conservative Padres, and signing either Harper or Machado would represent next-level spending the likes of which has never been seen by the organization and its fans. However, as I noted last week when looking at how Machado could fit into the payroll, it might not be as difficult as many would think for the Padres to accommodate an annual salary of $30MM+ (Harper spurned a 10-year, $300MM offer from the Nationals that has reportedly since been increased).

Myers and Hosmer are the only long-term contracts on the books for the Padres, and Hosmer’s contract was heavily front-loaded. While he’s earning $21MM annually for the next four seasons, Hosmer’s salary will drop to $13MM per year from 2023-25. Myers is owed $5.5MM in 2019 and $22.5MM in each of the three subsequent seasons, although the Padres have been trying to offload that contract for awhile anyhow.

Even speculatively penciling in a hefty $34MM annual rate of pay for Harper and assuming that the organization is unable to trade Myers, there’d only be three seasons in which the Padres were on the hook for all of those salaries. Combined, those three would equal $77.5MM — a huge sum for three players by San Diego’s standards, but come 2023 they’d be paying Harper and Hosmer under $50MM combined with Myers off the books. And, given the Padres’ deluge of oncoming talent from one of the game’s top-ranked farm systems, it’s likely that Harper and Hosmer could be largely surrounded by pre-arbitration players. Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Urias and Francisco Mejia could all potentially join Harper and Hosmer as regulars in that theoretical lineup by the end of the 2019 season.

None of that is to say that a deal between the two sides is likely, but the financial component may be far easier to navigate than many would expect upon first glance. The meeting is just one step in what would surely be an arduous negotiation process, but it seems clear that current Padres ownership is at least open to the possibility of high-level spending before its hopeful core emerges at the big league level.

Padres, Mets Among Teams Interested In Gio Gonzalez

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The Padres have been connected to a number of high-profile names over the past week — Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto — and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi now adds that they’re also considering free-agent lefty Gio Gonzalez. The Mets, too, have maintained contact with Scott Boras regarding Gonzalez, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (via Twitter).

Gonzalez, 33, has made 31 or more starts in all but one season dating back to 2010, with the lone exception being a 2014 campaign in which he took the ball 27 times. Last season, in 171 innings between the Nationals and Brewers, the two-time All-Star logged a respectable 4.21 ERA but did so with his lowest K/9 (7.8) and highest BB/9 (4.2) marks since cementing himself as a big league starter. Of course, a year prior, Gonzalez tossed 201 innings of 2.96 ERA ball with 8.4 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9.

Earlier this winter, the Padres were linked more to younger rotation options, as their goal at the time appeared to be to add a pitcher on a multi-year deal who’d still be in his prime during San Diego’s return to contention. Gonzalez may not fit that bill, though it’s also quite possible that like many other free agents, his asking price has dropped. And, it’d be easy enough for the Padres to fit Gonzalez into their rotation picture, given the general lack of experience among the team’s current rotation options. San Diego has numerous young options with more upside than Gonzalez, but Gonzalez is one of the most reliable sources starts remaining on the open market and could thus help to stabilize that young group.

As for the Mets, Puma notes that they’re debating internally whether he’s enough of an upgrade over in-house options. Certainly, Gonzalez would appear to be an upgrade over Jason Vargas, although Vargas is owed $8MM this season, which would likely be a factor to consider when potentially displacing him. Beyond that, it’s worth noting that each of Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler spent time on the disabled list last season. The Mets’ rotation is quite talented, though health has long been an issue for the collective group, and depth beyond the team’s top quintet is thin, too.

It’s been a quiet winter on the Gonzalez front, with few known suitors beyond today’s pairing, although the Brewers were mentioned as a possibility by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt just yesterday.

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