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Quick Hits: Narvaez, Gallo, Monfort, Tatis Jr., Mets

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Omar Narvaez signed a one-year, $8MM deal (with a $7MM player option for 2024) with the Mets just before Christmas, and Will Sammon of The Athletic shed a little more light on the market for the veteran backstop before he eventually wound up in New York. Sammon notes that the Giants strongly considered a move for Narvaez while the Twins, Tigers and Reds all had varying levels of interest.

The Giants have since inked Roberto Perez, the Reds are set with the trio of Tyler Stephenson, Curt Casali and Luke Maile while the Twins signed Christian Vazquez to the position. The Tigers are an interesting one though, as they’ve only added Triple-A backstop Donny Sands in a trade with the Phillies. They’re set to use some combination of Eric Haase, Jake Rogers and Sands in 2023 but it’s interesting to hear they were at least interested in a higher profile addition there this winter. If they do still look to add an external catcher, Gary Sanchez, Robinson Chirinos and Kevin Plawecki are the remaining notable catchers on the market.

Here’s some more bits and pieces from around baseball:

  • Joey Gallo could be set to see a bit of time at first base in 2023. As Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic noted in a recent mailbag, Gallo could well be the back up first baseman to Alex Kirilloff. That’s not to say Gallo will be on the bench, as the former Ranger, Yankee and Dodger will get plenty of reps in the outfield, but if Kirilloff’s struggles extend into 2023 the Twins could utilize Gallo a fair bit at the position. He rates well as a defender in the outfield, and has made just one appearance at first since 2018 but he’s also graded out solidly defensively at first in his time there.
  • Rockies owner Dick Monfort made headlines recently when he boldly stated he thought the Rockies could play .500 ball this season. That’d be a big ask in a competitive NL West, and the Rockies have done little to improve on their 68-94 record in 2022. Whatever record they wind up with this year, Monfort – in an interview with Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post – said they wouldn’t go down the rebuilding path: “I guess the connotation on rebuilding is you just get rid of everybody. You try to draft low, which we’re not [going to do]. We’re not trying to get the first pick. We’re not going to tank. We never have, never will,” Monfort said.
  • With the Padres adding Xander Bogaerts on a long-term deal and still having Manny Machado under contract for at least the next season, the left side of their infield appears set. Of course, that led to an expectation that Fernando Tatis Jr. would head to the outfield moving forward. That still looks to be the case, although the player didn’t commit to a position and said he’s been working out in both the infield and outfield this winter (via Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Tribune-Review). It’s been a challenging few seasons for Tatis, but he also added that he’s feeling “as close to 100%” as he’s been the past few seasons after dealing with wrist and shoulder injuries, and is expecting to be a full participant in spring training.
  • Sammon’s report in The Athletic also includes details on the Mets plans for Tylor Megill and David Peterson. Both players figure to be in and around the team at some stage over the course of the season, but Sammon reports that the team’s ideal scenario would be to have both players go to Triple-A to start the season and work as starters there, rather than starting the season in the big league bullpen. Of course, injuries in the spring could force one or both of them into rotation spots to begin the season anyway, but it seems the Mets are hoping to avoid using them in relief roles to begin the season.

Padres Promote Ryan Christenson To Associate Manager

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The Padres announced their coaching staff for the 2023 season this afternoon. There are a few shakeups for Bob Melvin’s second season leading the San Diego dugout.

Ryan Christenson has been given the title of associate manager. The 48-year-old joined Melvin in making the jump from the A’s to the Padres last offseason. Christenson had been Melvin’s bench coach in Oakland from 2018-21 and took on that same role for his first season in San Diego. He now earns a bump in title to associate manager, though his position as Melvin’s top lieutenant seems unchanged.

Filling the role of bench coach is Ryan Flaherty, who’s going into year four on the San Diego staff. He also gets the title of offensive coordinator, essentially taking on the hitting coach duties vacated when Michael Brdar was poached by the Tigers at the start of the offseason. San Diego will go without anyone assuming the traditional “hitting coach” title.

The 36-year-old Flaherty has spent the past two seasons as a quality control coach. He drew interest from the Mets in their bench coach search last offseason, but the Friars denied New York’s interview request. One year later, the former Orioles infielder gets both that title and the lead hitting responsibilities in San Diego.

He’ll be joined on staff by assistant hitting coaches Scott Coolbaugh and Oscar Bernard. The 56-year-old Coolbaugh joins the Friars after two years as the lead hitting instructor with the Tigers. He’d also previously served as hitting coach in Baltimore and Texas and an assistant role with the White Sox. He brings plenty of coaching experience to help Flaherty in his first crack as offensive coordinator.

Bernard, meanwhile, gets promoted to the MLB staff after seven years as San Diego’s minor league hitting coordinator. The 39-year-old spent some time as a player and instructor in the Cubs’ minor league system before joining the Friars in 2016. It’s the first big league staff job for the Dominican Republic native. Also joining the group is catching coach Brian Esposito. The 43-year-old spent last season managing the Friars’ Low-A affiliate in Fort Wayne.

The rest are holdovers from last season. Ruben Niebla is back for a second year as pitching coach, pairing with bullpen coach Ben Fritz. Matt Williams and David Macias will coach the bases and defense — Williams the infield, Macias the outfield — with Peter Summerville and Herberto Andrade as coaching assistants. Former big league managers Bryan Price and Mike Shildt will reassume the advisory roles they manned in 2022.

Padres Prospect Eguy Rosario Suffers Broken Ankle

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Padres infield prospect Eguy Rosario suffered a broken ankle during winter ball workouts, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.  Rosario now faces a lengthy recovery process, as Sanders writes that the infielder won’t be back in action until “midsummer.”

It’s a tough setback for the 23-year-old Rosario, who made his Major League debut with a seven-game cup of coffee last season.  Rosario only had six plate appearances in his first trip to the Show, but as Sanders notes, Rosario was expected to contend for a backup infield job this spring.  The versatile infielder has played extensively at shortstop, second base, and third base over his minor league career, and also has a handful of games as a first baseman on his resume.

Rosario was an international signing in 2015, and his batting numbers have steadily improved as he has made his way up San Diego’s minor league ladder.  While the canceled 2020 minor league season took him off the field entirely, Rosario hit .281/.360/.455 with 12 homers over 480 Double-A plate appearances in 2021, and he then took another step forward with a .288/.368/.508 slash line and 22 home runs over 564 PA at the Triple-A level last year.  Rosario also brings speed to his offensive profile, with 72 steals (out of 103 attempts) over his last three minor league campaigns.

MLB Pipeline ranks Rosario fifth on its list of the Padres’ top 30 prospects, while Baseball America has Rosario slotted ninth.  BA’s scouting report views Rosario as a utility infield type at the MLB level, with a strong throwing arm helping make up for some defensive miscues (though Rosario is ultimately better suited for second or third base, rather than shortstop).  Playing in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League provided at least some inflation to Rosario’s Triple-A numbers, but BA’s report notes that Rosario also worked to add strength to his modest frame of 5’9″ and 150 pounds.

Unfortunately for Rosario, he’ll now have to wait a while longer to resume his playing career, and hope that the ankle injury doesn’t impact his baserunning or mobility in the field.  The Padres already have a good amount of infield depth given their signing of Xander Bogaerts and the eventual return of Fernando Tatis Jr. from suspension, but with Rosario out, Brandon Dixon, Matthew Batten, or minor league signing Max Schrock might have a clearer path to a bench job.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Opens Up About Lost Season

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Fernando Tatis Jr. had an absolutely dismal 2022. He missed the first half of the year following March surgery to repair a left wrist fracture sustained in an offseason motorcycle accident and then got popped for an 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension just as he was preparing to return to the Padres’ active roster in August.

There were a couple of other setbacks along the way — shoulder surgery in September and a follow-up procedure on his wrist in October — but the 24-year-old does seem to be in a good place both physically and mentally as the opening of Spring Training draws near.

“I’m really excited,” Tatis told Kevin Acee and Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune. “I feel like this is one of the years there’s gonna be more emotion and I’m definitely looking forward to it. … I feel like a different story could have been if I was on the field. I feel like that was a stab to the team. I was apart from them. It was the first time I ever felt that. I was really heartbroken. I’ve always been successful in this area and now for the first time, I really (messed) up. And I really felt that. …  I know what people are gonna talk about out there and what people are gonna be talking about on the field. It depends on me — how I’m gonna approach it, how I’m gonna take it. And it’s gonna be up to me if I’m going to answer back.”

Tatis expects to be a full-go for spring workouts, and he anticipates being activated as soon as he is eligible to return from his PED suspension on April 20. For his newfound peace of mind and improving overall health, he credits diving into an underwater training program run by former Marine Raiders in the San Diego area. Tatis has been participating in these workouts with Joe Musgrove, who was one of the more vocal critics in the Padres’ own clubhouse back when the suspension news was first announced.

“He’s having to face something that he never has or never wanted to face,” Musgrove said of Tatis. “But he’s handling it really well. He’s been around Petco (Park) every day and the work ethic he’s putting in, he’s going to be ready. … Being the superstar and the face of baseball is a lot to take on. So he hasn’t put himself out there a ton in the past. And I feel like now you’re starting to see a little bit more of him open up.”

Tatis delivered a stellar .965 OPS with 81 home runs and 52 stolen bases across his first 273 major league games between 2019-2021. That works out to a 162-game average of 48 homers and 31 steals, to go along with 116 RBI and 125 runs scored. He landed a blockbuster 14-year, $340MM contract extension from San Diego almost exactly 23 months ago. Now he’s about ready again to live up to that high-dollar commitment and perhaps help the Padres claim the NL West crown for the first time since 2006.

Read The Transcript Of Our Chat Hosted By Former MLB Pitcher Cory Wade

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Righty Cory Wade was drafted by the Dodgers in the 10th round in 2004 out of Kentucky Wesleyan College “after setting the career record for strikeouts at Indianapolis’ Broad Ripple High,” according to Baseball America.  He broke into the Majors in late April of 2008 as a 24-year-old, tossing a scoreless inning against the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium.

As Wade’s stellar rookie season continued, he gained the trust of manager Joe Torre.  He finished the regular season with a 2.27 ERA in 71 1/3 innings, ranking third among all relievers.  Wade was a key part of the Dodgers’ NLDS sweep of the Cubs in ’08, pitching well out of L.A.’s bullpen in all three games.

Unfortunately, Wade’s Dodgers career was derailed by shoulder surgery.  He battled to get back to the Majors, opting out of a minor league deal with the Rays in the summer of 2011 and signing with the Yankees.  Wade jumped straight into the Yankees’ big league bullpen on June 15th, posting a 2.04 ERA on the season that was bested by only a handful of AL relievers, including pen-mates Mariano Rivera and David Robertson.  Under manager Joe Girardi, Wade once again found himself getting crucial postseason innings, putting up two scoreless against the Tigers in the second game of the ALDS.

Wade moved around after his time with the Yankees, pitching in Triple-A for the Rays, Cubs, Mets, and Royals organizations.  After retiring from pitching, Wade spent nine years as a pro scout for the Padres.  He recently left that job to help start a sports scouting app called ScoutUs Pro.

Despite an average fastball velocity shy of 90 miles per hour, Wade showed impeccable control and wound up as one of the league’s better relievers in his work with both the ’08 Dodgers and ’11 Yankees.  His strikeout victims included Chipper Jones, Bobby Abreu, and Todd Helton.

Cory answered questions from MLBTR readers for over an hour today, touching on topics such as modern baseball analytics, scouting, bouncing back from injuries, and much more.  Check out the transcript here!

If you’re a current or former MLB player and you’d like to host an hour-long chat with our readers, contact us here!  It’s easy and fun!

Padres Sign Nelson Cruz To One-Year Deal

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Jan. 23: Cruz passed his physical in the Dominican Republic and the Padres formally announced the contract on Monday.

Jan. 11: The Padres and slugger Nelson Cruz are in agreement on a one-year deal. The deal is pending a physical but the client of Primo Sports Group is slated to receive a $1MM guarantee.

Once Cruz gets into a game, it will be the 19th straight season for the veteran, who will turn 43 in July. He’s long been one of the most consistent sluggers in the league but he’s coming off a down season. From 2008 to 2021, he hit 434 home runs, the most of anyone in the majors in that time. His batting line over that stretch was .280/.350/.536 for a wRC+ of 136, indicating he was 36% better than league average in that time.

However, the most recent part of his career has been a different story. After being traded from the Twins to the Rays at the deadline in 2021, his production slipped. He hit just .226/.283/.442 after the deal for a wRC+ of 95. He signed a one-year, $15MM deal with the Nationals for 2022 and tried to get back on track but actually fell further. He hit .234/.313/.337 last year, finishing with a wRC+ of 85.

As the season was winding down, Cruz told reporters that he was going to undergo eye surgery, since he had been dealing some inflammation that was blocking his vision. He said that it had been affecting him for about a year and a half, which lines up with the period in which his production cratered. Assuming the operation was a success, it’s possible that he could get back to his previous levels of production. But given that he’s old by professional athlete standards, it’s possible that typical age decline could also be a factor.

There’s certainly some risk involved, but it seems to be one that Padres’ president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is willing to take. Preller has shown a tendency to give chances to players he previously employed when he was with the Rangers and Cruz fits that bill. He was a Ranger from 2006 to 2013, the time when he broke out and had some of his best seasons. If the gamble pays off, it will add a potent bat to a San Diego lineup that is already quite dangerous.

Cruz is strictly a designated hitter at this point in his career, having taking the field only once in the past four seasons, which was seven innings of first base action for the Rays in 2021. It’s possible that Cruz and the left-handed hitting Matt Carpenter could platoon in the designated hitter role, but Carpenter is also capable of playing some first base and outfield, giving manager Bob Melvin some ability to get them both into the lineup, if he’s so inclined.

Financially, the Padres have shot their payroll up to new heights this winter. Roster Resource calculates their spending at $250MM, which would easily be a franchise record. The figures at Cot’s Baseball Contracts have their previous high at $211MM, which was last year. Perhaps more importantly, the club is set to be a luxury tax payor for a third straight season, having also paid the competitive balance tax in 2021 and 2022. Roster Resource pegs their CBT number at $267MM, well beyond the $233MM base threshold and the second $253MM threshold. As a third-time payor in the second tax bracket, they’re currently slated for a 62% tax on any extra spending. If they go beyond the third line, which is $273MM, the rate jumps all the way to 95% and their top pick in the 2024 draft would be dropped by ten slots.

Héctor Gómez of Z101 Digital first reported the two sides were in agreement on a one-year deal. Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the $1MM salary.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres Outright Sean Poppen

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The Padres announced Friday evening that reliever Sean Poppen has gone unclaimed on waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A El Paso. There’d been no previous indication Poppen was designated for assignment, so the move clears a spot on the San Diego 40-man roster. That count drops to 39.

Poppen landed in San Diego last month on a waiver claim from Arizona. The right-hander has pitched in the majors in each of the last four seasons, with the majority of that work coming since the start of 2021. Poppen has played for four different clubs, spending the past year-plus with the Diamondbacks.

In 67 1/3 career innings, the Harvard product has a 5.08 ERA. He’s posted a slightly below-average 22.3% strikeout rate and 10% walk percentage. It was a similar story in 2022, as Poppen worked to a 4.40 ERA across 28 2/3 frames. He struck out 18.3% of batters faced while handing out free passes at a 10% clip. He averaged a solid 94.6 MPH on his sinker but only generated swinging strikes on 6.3% of his total pitches.

Poppen has had more success in the minor leagues. He’s logged 121 innings over parts of three Triple-A seasons, working to a cumulative 3.50 ERA. The former 19th-round pick has fanned around 24% of opponents at the highest minor league level. He worked to a 4.62 ERA over 25 1/3 frames with Arizona’s top affiliate last year. That was his final option season, so the Friars couldn’t send him back to the minors without first passing him through waivers.

Despite appearing in parts of four MLB seasons, the 28-year-old has yet to reach two full years of big league service time. This is the first time in his career he’s been outrighted, so he won’t have the right to test minor league free agency. Poppen will presumably head to big league camp as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training. If he doesn’t reclaim a 40-man roster spot before Opening Day, he’ll start the season in the El Paso bullpen.

Adam Warren Announces Retirement

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Right-hander Adam Warren confirmed to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com yesterday that he’s retired as a player after spending parts of eight seasons in the Majors (Twitter link, with video, to Hoch’s interview with Warren). Warren, who was making an appearance at Yankees Fantasy Camp, told Hoch that he’s been enjoying time with his family but also misses being around the game and would be open to “maybe getting into some kind of coaching” role in the future.

“There’s no more attempt to come back or anything like that,” Warren replied upon being asked if he’s formally put an end to his playing career. “I’m happy with it. I had a great career — didn’t really leave anything out there, so no regrets. Totally happy with it.”

Originally signed by the Yankees as a fourth-round pick out of UNC back in 2009, Warren made his big league debut as a 23-year-old in 2012 — a spot start that proved to be his lone MLB appearance that season. He made the Opening Day roster the following year, however, and quickly established himself as a pivotal swingman providing quality, multi-inning relief out of then-manager Joe Girardi’s bullpen. Warren’s official rookie season resulted in 77 innings of 3.39 ERA ball; he made two starts, finished 11 games and picked up his first Major League win, save and hold along the way, foreshadowing the jack-of-all-trades approach to pitching that he’d embody throughout his career.

Warren worked as a setup man for the Yankees in 2014, tallying 23 holds and saving three games while pitching to a sharp 2.97 ERA in 78 2/3 innings. He stepped into the rotation for part of the 2015 season and did so almost seamlessly, starting 17 games (plus another 26 relief appearances) and working to a 3.29 ERA over the life of a career-high 131 2/3 frames. His early Yankees work caught the attention of the Cubs, who acquired him that offseason in a trade that sent Starlin Castro to the Bronx.

Warren’s time with the Cubs in 2016 went poorly and proved to be short-lived, as he was knocked around for a 5.91 ERA. As the trade deadline approached, the Cubs, then hoping to bolster the roster for a World Series push (an endeavor that ultimately proved successful) quickly traded Warren … back to the Yankees, as one of four players in a package that shipped Aroldis Chapman to Chicago. Warren almost immediately righted the ship in his return to the Bronx, and he went on to have strong performances with the Yankees in both 2017 and 2018 before being traded to the Mariners, where he had a nice finish to his 2018 campaign.

Upon reaching free agency, Warren signed with the Padres, but his time in San Diego was marred by injury. After just 25 appearances, the right-hander landed on the injured list with an arm issue that ultimately proved to be a ligament tear in his pitching elbow. He underwent Tommy John surgery that year, rehabbed in 2020 and eventually made his way back to the mound for a third stint with the Yankees organization — this time with their Triple-A affiliate in 2021.

Though Warren posted solid results in Scranton that season — 3.59 ERA in 57 2/3 innings — he didn’t receive a call to the big leagues. Warren told Hoch that “the velocity never came back like I wanted it to.” That season proved to be the final chapter in his playing career, as Warren didn’t suit up for the 2022 campaign and now, at 35 years old, doesn’t appear to be contemplating a comeback.

Warren’s career draws to an official close with a 3.53 ERA, a 20.9% strikeout rate, an 8.3% walk rate, a 30-24 record, 57 holds and six saves over the course of 492 1/3 innings. He pitched for four different big league clubs, but fans will surely remember him as a versatile, quietly excellent member of the Yankees’ pitching staff who found success in just about every role asked of him. Baseball-Reference pegs his career earnings at approximately $11.5MM, and if Warren indeed plans to pursue potential coaching opportunities, there’ll surely be chances for him to add to that tally in the next phase of his career.

Yankee fans will want to check out the entire clip of Hoch’s chat with Warren, as he talks briefly about his favorite moments in pinstripes and notes that with so many great teammates over the years, “it’s just nice to be remembered” by fans with whom he interacts. That humble mentality undersells the right-hander’s importance to the Yankees’ staff during his run with the club, and it seems quite safe to say that their fans in particular will have plenty of fond memories Warren’s time in the Bronx. Best wishes to Warren and his family in whatever’s next, and congratulations on a very fine career.

Details On 2022 Team Payrolls

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The Mets had the sport’s highest competitive balance tax payroll in 2022, reports Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. For CBT purposes, New York’s final tally checked in at $299.8MM. According to the report, that was around $2MM higher than the 2015 Dodgers’ $297.9MM mark that had stood as the previous spending record.

New York is responsible for a $30.8MM tax bill, the second-largest tally in the majors, after paying the tax for the first time in franchise history. The Dodgers will foot the highest tax payment at $32.4MM, Blum writes. While Los Angeles’ $293.3MM CBT payroll trailed that of the Mets, the Dodgers were subject to higher penalties as a payor for a second consecutive season.

The Mets are sure to shatter their own record this coming season, as they’re currently projected for a tax number north of $368MM. The Dodgers have trimmed spending, reportedly in hopes of resetting their tax status this year in preparation for a more active offseason next winter. They’re narrowly above the lowest CBT threshold at the moment. Roster Resource forecasts the Dodgers at approximately $238MM, around $5MM north of this year’s $233MM base threshold.

As the Associated Press first reported last September, six teams went over the CBT mark in 2022. Blum reports today the specifics of the payments owed by the Yankees ($9.7MM), Phillies ($2.9MM), Padres ($1.5MM as a second-time payor) and Red Sox ($1.2MM). The final three figures, in particular, are very modest expenditures relative to club payrolls. Nevertheless, the decision to narrowly surpass the threshold is significant in that it raises penalties for payments in future seasons and alters teams’ compensation for signing or losing qualified free agents. The Padres and Phillies surely don’t have regrets after each posted one of the best years in recent franchise history, but the decision didn’t translate to success in the Red Sox’s case. Blum writes that the tax money will be paid to MLB by the end of this week.

A team’s CBT number is determined by the average annual value of a club’s commitments plus player benefits and their contributions to the new bonus pool for pre-arbitration players. The CBT figure isn’t a match for an organization’s actual player payroll in a given season. Blum reports each club’s final raw payroll figure as well, with the Mets again fronting the pack at roughly $274.9MM. The Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Padres, Red Sox, White Sox, Braves, Astros and Blue Jays filled out the top ten.

On the other side, the A’s had the lowest payroll at approximately $49MM. The bottom 10 was rounded out by the Orioles, Pirates, Guardians, Marlins, Royals, Rays, D-Backs, Reds and Mariners. Full team data is available at the AP link.

Royals, Padres Among Teams Interested In Aroldis Chapman

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Both the Royals and Padres have some level of interest free-agent lefty Aroldis Chapman, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. This comes just one day after the Marlins were also reported to have interest in the former Yankees, Cubs and Reds closer.

The 2022 season was a rough one for Chapman, who’ll turn 35 next month. The lefty’s fastball, which once averaged better than 101 mph, dropped to a 97.5 mph average in 2022. Simultaneously, his command troubles spike to their worst levels since back in 2011. Chapman’s 26.9% strikeout rate in 2022 was better than league-average but still a career-low by a wide margin, and he walked a massive 17.5% of his opponents, which is the second-worst mark of his career.

Chapman’s 4.46 ERA was passable but nevertheless the highest of his career, and he missed six weeks of the season with an Achilles injury in addition to a roughly three-week absence owing to a leg infection related to a recent tattoo he’d received. He was also left off the Yankees’ postseason roster after skipping a team workout

Kansas City has taken its share of low-cost gambles on former high-profile closers in recent years, inking Trevor Rosenthal prior to the 2020 season and also bringing former K.C. stars Wade Davis and Greg Holland back for buy-low reunion tours. Chapman would be a page out of a similar playbook.

With just an $85MM projected payroll (via Roster Resource) and plenty of uncertainty behind closer Scott Barlow, the Royals represent a sensible enough on-paper fit. They already have three potential southpaws for the ’pen, with Amir Garrett, Anthony Misiewicz and Richard Lovelady on hand, but Misiewicz does have a pair of minor league option years remaining. And, if Chapman were able to bounce back into form, he could potentially be someone they look to flip to another club as the trade deadline draws nearer.

As for the Padres, nary a free agent with any name value passes by without being connected to them. The Friars already have a deep bullpen, headlined by Josh Hader, Robert Suarez, Luis Garcia and a hopefully healthy Drew Pomeranz, but Chapman would add another big arm to the mix. Ownership and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller have shown a clear affinity for high-profile stars in recent years, even if some of those name-brand players have been past their peak production.

Then again, they’re also already sitting on a $251MM payroll, and Chapman could push them into the third tier of luxury penalization, given the projected $270.6MM currently on their luxury ledger. In terms of monetary penalization, the jump from adding Chapman likely wouldn’t be large. The Padres would pay a 42% tax on every dollar up to $273MM in luxury obligations, and that number would jump to 75% thereafter. However, presuming Chapman won’t command much more than a few million dollars on a one-year rebound deal, that sum won’t be particularly burdensome.

That said, there’s a greater cost to consider if the Padres want to continue spending in free agency. Exceeding the luxury tax threshold by more than $40MM also results in a team’s top pick in the subsequent year’s draft pushed back by 10 places. Tacking on even a $3MM salary for Chapman would come with something like $4MM in costs between his salary and luxury tax penalties, but would more importantly drop the Padres out of the top 30 in the 2024 draft while also reducing the size of their bonus pool. Further trades, of course, could always alter that calculus, but the Padres were recently reported to be approaching a “self-prescribed” spending limit. It wouldn’t be a surprise to learn that the point at which payroll begins to detrimentally impact future drafts is indeed that limit.

While much of the free-agent market moved at an accelerated pace this offseason, the market for left-handed relievers has been curiously slow. Taylor Rogers took until late December to land his three-year deal with the Giants, and Chapman joins the likes of Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore, Will Smith, Brad Hand and Zack Britton as a southpaw reliever of note that has yet to sign a team for the 2023 season.

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