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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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Thanks to the expanded postseason format, the Brewers were a playoff team in 2020, despite a 29-31 record and a lack of offensive production.  The club now heads into the winter looking to answer a lot of questions throughout the lineup.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $205MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout of $20MM mutual option for 2029)
  • Lorenzo Cain, OF: $35MM through 2022
  • Freddy Peralta, RP: $13.75MM through 2024 (includes $1.5MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2025; deal also contains $8MM club option for 2026)
  • Avisail Garcia, OF: $12.5MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $12MM club/mutual option for 2022, though buyout value could vary)
  • Josh Lindblom, SP: $5.5MM through 2022
  • Brent Suter, RP: $1.5MM through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Looking to build on postseason appearances in both 2018 and 2019, the Brewers made a number of short-term, relatively inexpensive signings last winter to reinforce the roster after Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas departed in free agency.  It was a sound plan on paper and, overall, it worked considering that the Brew Crew again reached the playoffs.

The issue with such a strategy, however, is that the Brewers are now facing another reload on the open market.  Obviously the Brewers couldn’t have foreseen last winter that their already fairly tight payroll situation would impacted by a season of major revenue losses, but their budget figures to be even tighter in 2021.  It doesn’t seem likely that the team will match its (pre-adjusted schedule) 2020 payroll of roughly $97.5MM.

Between their roughly $47.5MM of guaranteed contracts, the above arbitration projections and a handful of pre-arbitration salaries to round out the roster, Milwaukee is looking at nearly $81MM in projected payroll.  It remains to be seen how much money president of baseball operations David Stearns will have at his disposal for new additions.  On the plus side, Stearns has shown himself to be adept at finding low-cost gems in trades or free agency, so this will be nothing new for him.  More funds could be freed up in the form of non-tenders, as the Brewers could reasonably part ways with more than half of their 10-player arbitration class.

Cutting ties with Omar Narvaez would leave the Brew Crew without their starting catcher, yet Narvaez had such a tough offensive season that the team may decide he isn’t worth the investment.  Jace Peterson, Alex Claudio, and (especially) Daniel Vogelbach were all pretty productive in limited action with Milwaukee last season, but since lots of similar players are expected to be available in a flooded non-tender market, the Brewers could look for cheaper options elsewhere.  Corey Knebel struggled over 13 1/3 innings in his return from Tommy John surgery, and with a projected $5.125MM arbitration salary, Knebel might be deemed too expensive to retain given the risk that he doesn’t get back to his old All-Star form.

Speaking of All-Star relievers, Josh Hader is obviously in no danger of being non-tendered, yet could Hader have already thrown his last pitch in a Milwaukee uniform?  The club is reportedly open to hearing trade offers, but as Stearns said in September, being willing to listen to another team’s proposal is much different than actively exploring deals. “We’ve never really looked to move [Hader], and I don’t really anticipate that changing,” Stearns said at the time.

Some might argue that Devin Williams’ emergence as a shutdown reliever makes Hader at least somewhat expendable, though Williams also serves as an argument for keeping Hader; having two outstanding relievers more fully reinforces a pitching staff that traditionally doesn’t extend starters deep into games in the name of efficient run prevention.

Past Milwaukee staffs have kept a pretty loose definition of “starter” and “reliever” rather than sticking to strict roles, though going into 2021, the Brew Crew has four starters in place.  Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes posted front-of-the-rotation results last season, while advanced metrics indicated that Josh Lindblom pitched better than his 5.16 ERA would indicate.  Adrian Houser struggled down the stretch after some good early outings, but the right-hander looks to have the inside track on a rotation spot.

The fifth spot could be filled internally.  Eric Lauer, Freddy Peralta, or Brent Suter are all candidates to take the job themselves, or perhaps they’ll share starts (or work as bulk pitchers behind an opener).  As much as the Brewers like being flexible with their hurlers, they’ll surely look to add more depth, and re-signing Brett Anderson could be a possibility.  Anderson had a good year in 2020, but since he is entering his age-33 season and doesn’t have the big strikeout numbers that many teams covet, he could be available to the Brewers on another one-year deal.  If not Anderson, expect Milwaukee to target similar veterans on short-term contracts.

The Brewers’ first round of financial decisions this offseason resulted in four declined club options, most notably the team passing on their side of a mutual option with long-time star Ryan Braun.  While not an unexpected move given Braun’s age, price tag, and his average hitting numbers, it is still noteworthy that Braun’s 14-season run with the franchise is done — barring another contract, that is.  Braun said in July that he was leaning towards playing in 2021, and if that stance hasn’t changed, it’s possible the two sides could reunite on an inexpensive one-year deal.  There might not be action on this front, of course, until the Brewers know if the DH will be available to National League teams next season.

Further complicating Stearns’ winter business is the lack of certainty at almost every position around the diamond.  The Brewers are looking for almost a lineup-wide rebound.  Each of Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura, Avisail Garcia, Luis Urias and Narvaez struggled to varying extents, while Lorenzo Cain is expected to return after opting out of the 2020 season just five games into the year.  Yelich, Cain, and Hiura are the clear everyday building blocks, and Garcia will likely stay due to a lack of trade value.  Urias is still part of the Brewers’ future, and his lackluster 2020 numbers were likely impacted by a positive COVID-19 diagnosis that sidelined him for much of Summer Camp.

Where Urias plays next season depends on what the Brewers do with Orlando Arcia.  The former top prospect had a solid offensive showing (.260/.317/.416 in 189 PA) that resulted in a career-best 96 wRC+, but  this could be too little, too late.  Arcia is another player that could plausibly be non-tendered, but since Urias had yet to establish himself at the MLB level, the Brewers could see value in keeping Arcia around to hold the fort at shortstop.

That could leave Urias in line to play some third base, and Milwaukee will look to augment the position with an addition like last winter’s signing of Eric Sogard (ideally with more return on investment, given Sogard’s lack of production).  Players like Jake Lamb, Enrique Hernandez, Asdrubal Cabrera, or Brad Miller may be within the Brewers’ price range, and Gyorko hit well enough that one would imagine the team would be interested in bringing him back.  Of the slightly more expensive options, Tommy La Stella could also be a target.  Even further up the financial ladder, the Brewers would make some sense as a bidder for Ha-Seong Kim once the Korean star is posted.  MLBTR projects Kim to land a $40MM contract, but for a 25-year-old with Kim’s skill set, potential, and multi-positional ability, Milwaukee could decide to take the plunge.

Even moreso than Arcia, Narvaez’s chances of being tendered a contract are helped by a lack of other options, as the Brewers would have to either acquire another backstop or roll with the in-house trio of Manny Pina, Jacob Nottingham, and David Freitas.  Known for his offense more than his defense heading into 2020, Narvez had a reversal of a year that saw his bat falter but his pitch-framing rise to elite levels.  An argument can be made that Milwaukee should hang onto Narvaez just to see what they really have in him, and if his hitting can recover in something of a more normal season.

Vogelbach is the favorite for first base if he is tendered a contract, but given his lack of track record, the Brew Crew could try to take advantage of a depressed free agent market to land a more proven hitter at something of a discount.  Carlos Santana stands out as a big bat whose stock is low coming off a down year in 2020.  Most of the aforementioned third base options also have first base experience, and Braun might also be a candidate for first base if the Brewers re-signed him.

If this seems like a lot of wait-and-see for a team hoping to contend, at least it helps the Brewers that their chief rivals in the very competitive NL Central all have big questions of their own.  Should 2020 prove to be an aberration and Yelich, Cain, Narvaez, and others all hit at something close to their past levels of performance, the Brew Crew will be a better team based on internal improvement alone.  Combine this with hitting on a few more short-term acquisitions, and a fourth straight postseason trip could be in the offing.

Brewers Add 3 To 40-Man Roster

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Catcher Mario Feliciano and right-handers Alec Bettinger and Dylan File are now on the Brewers’ 40-man roster, Will Sammon of The Athletic tweets. Their roster stands at 39 players.

All three of Feliciano (No. 4), Bettinger (24) and File (25) rank among the Brewers’ highest-regarded prospects at MLB.com. Feliciano is an offensive-minded catcher, though MLB.com writes that “his defense should be good enough to allow his bat-first profile to play at the highest level.”

Bettinger and File seem to profile as back-end starters/relievers, but they were rather effective in their most recent minor league experience in 2019. Bettinger threw 169 1/3 innings of 3.44 ERA/3.13 FIP in Double-A ball then, while File amassed 80 2/3 frames of 2.79 ERA/3.04 FIP pitching at the same level.

Brewers Promote Matt Arnold To General Manager

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The Brewers announced Thursday that they’ve promoted assistant general manager Matt Arnold, giving him the title of senior vice president and general manager. David Stearns, the team’s president of baseball operations and general manager, still sits atop Milwaukee’s baseball operations hierarchy but has had the “GM” portion dropped from his title in light of Arnold’s promotion.

The timing of the move likely isn’t a coincidence, as multiple clubs around the game have had GM vacancies open up — with a few still to be filled. Arnold is a well-respected executive who’d surely have generated interest for clubs looking to lure him away with a promotion to a GM post in their own organization. Arnold’s promotion won’t give him the autonomy over baseball operations decisions he might’ve been granted with another club, but it’s a notable bump in stature (and presumably in salary) that will make it more difficult for other teams to hire him away.

“For the past five years, Matt has served an invaluable role in helping to guide our baseball operations group,” Stearns said in a press release announcing the move. “He has contributed to every significant decision we have made and has offered indispensable advice and support throughout that time with the Brewers. Today’s announcement formalizes how we have operated over the last few years. This move provides Matt with the deserved recognition of his tireless work and ensures that our baseball operations leadership group remains intact.”

The 41-year-old Arnold originally came to the Brewers from the Rays organization, where he spent nine seasons in a variety of roles, including director of player personnel. He’s also worked for the Dodgers, Rangers and Reds over the course of a 20-year baseball operations career, occupying roles in scouting, player development and player analysis along the way.

Latest On Mets’ Front Office Search

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4:50pm: “It sounds as if” Athletics general manager David Forst is a target for the Mets, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. Forst and Alderson did work together in Oakland for two years, Slusser notes, though it’s unclear whether Forst would be willing to move to a different organization. With executive vice president Billy Beane potentially on his way out, Forst could soon be the head of A’s baseball operations.

12:52pm: The Mets’ front office search has led into the front offices of opposing teams, with mixed results thus far.  The Mets had interest in speaking with Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns, but the Brewers denied the Mets’ request, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports.  In a follow-up tweet from Morosi, he reports that New York also asked the Indians for permission to speak with GM Mike Chernoff about the Mets’ vacant president of baseball operations role, and it isn’t yet known if the Tribe has agreed.

Chernoff is a long-time member of Cleveland’s front office, and he has been working as general manager since October 2015.  He does have some notable ties to the New York area, as Chernoff hails from New Jersey and his father is an executive at New York’s WFAN Radio.  Since Chris Antonetti is still the Tribe’s top decision-maker as the team’s president of baseball operations, the Mets job would represent a promotion for Chernoff (clubs generally don’t block their employees from interviewing for higher jobs up the ladder) and a chance to not only run his own team, but take over one of the more intriguing job opportunities in recent memory.

Since Stearns is already the Brewers’ president of baseball operations, it would be a lateral move to take a similar job in New York, which would explain why the Brewers turned down the Mets’ request.  Stearns signed a contract extension in January 2019 that carried the promotion from GM to president of baseball ops, quite possibly as a way for the Brewers to head off potential headhunting inquiries from other teams.  Stearns is from New York and began his career working in the Mets’ front office, plus his stock as an executive has only risen given the Brewers’ success under his watch.  Milwaukee has reached the postseason in each of the last three years, and finished a game away from the NL pennant in 2018.

While the Mets are known to be looking for both a president of baseball operations and a general manager, Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark of The Athletic note the possibility that New York might just hire a GM for now.  “The pool of available executives might not be deep enough for them to hire two top decision-makers to work under” team president Sandy Alderson, Rosenthal/Stark write, listing several names (including Antonetti, Rays GM Erik Neander, and Blue Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro) seem comfortable in their current positions.

With Alderson approaching his 73rd birthday, the Mets could explore hiring a GM who could then move into a president of baseball ops role and full control of the front office once Alderson stepped down from his current role, having overseen the transition into Steve Cohen’s era of ownership.  Or, that general manager could remain in the position and the Mets could hire an entirely new president of baseball ops should another name (Theo Epstein, perhaps?) enter the picture in a year or so.

Brewers Open To Moving Josh Hader

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The Brewers are looking for offensive upgrades this winter, and they have at least one significant bargaining chip. Milwaukee is open to offers for elite reliever Josh Hader, per Robert Murray of Fansided.

As central as Hader has been to this run of Brewers contention – and as unique a talent as he has been – the Brewers have to at least listen to offers. He’s projected to make $5.65MM this season, and he has another two seasons of control remaining. Now might be the peak of Hader’s trade value.

For the Brewers, he might be a luxury they can no longer afford. Even at his most dominant, Hader maxed out at 2.7 bWAR during the regular season. There’s additional value for Hader’s role in the postseason, however, evidenced by his dominant run of 10 scoreless innings in the 2018 playoffs that played a major role in getting the Brewers to the NLCS. For an NL contender looking to balance to scales against the  juggernaut Dodgers, a weapon like Hader could present a solution.

Besides, it just so happens that the Brewers produced another high-end reliever in Rookie-of-the-Year Devin Williams. As tantalizing as the pair would be at the tail-end of games, the Brewers have other holes to fill and a limited payroll. They had a roughly $97MM payroll in 2020, and they’re already close to that number with arbitration projections for 2021. They could non-tender Corey Knebel to open up about $5MM, but he’s also a high-end bullpen piece at his best – which he wasn’t in 2020 with a 6.08 ERA in 13 1/3 innings.

If they’re serious about upgrading the offense, which Murray notes finished 26th in runs and 24th in OPS, moving a piece like Hader might provide a path. Naysayers may point to the mph he lost on his fastball this season, but he was still among the very best in the game at limiting hard contact (85.4 mph EV), avoiding barrels (14.7 Barrel%), and striking out opposing hitters (39.7 K%) – not to mention a 2.94 xERA that ranks among the top 10% in the game.

Devin Williams, Kyle Lewis Win Rookie Of The Year Awards

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Brewers right-handed reliever Devin Williams and Mariners center fielder Kyle Lewis have won the 2020 Jackie Robinson National League and American League Rookie of the Year awards, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America announced Monday.

Williams was up against Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm and Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth, who tied for second place in the balloting. This is not the first postseason award for the 26-year-old Williams, who already took home NL Reliever of the Year honors.

A second-round pick in 2013, Williams has turned into a gem for the Brewers since debuting in the bigs a year ago. He put up a brilliant .33 ERA/.86 FIP combination with 17.67 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 61.1 percent groundball rate over 27 innings in 2020. Among qualified relievers, the hard-throwing Williams ranked first in ERA, FIP, K/9 and fWAR (1.4). He’s the first pitcher to ever win ROY without making a start or registering a save.

Lewis, now 25, became a Mariner when they selected him 11th overall in 2016. Injury issues slowed Lewis for a bit after that, but he has done nothing but hit since Seattle first called him up in 2019. This past season, Lewis slashed .262/.364/.437 (126 wRC+) with 11 home runs, five stolen bases and 1.7 fWAR over 242 plate appearances. That was enough for Lewis, who won unanimously, to finish ahead of White Sox center fielder Luis Robert and Astros righty Cristian Javier for AL ROY honors.

Brewers Add Quintin Berry To Coaching Staff

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The Brewers announced their 2021 coaching staff Wednesday, which includes a new but familiar name: former big league outfielder Quintin Berry. He’ll take the place of longtime third base coach Ed Sedar, who is transitioning from the dugout to a new role as an advisor to the Major League coaching staff.

Berry, 35, recently wrapped up a 13-year career as an outfielder — one that included parts of five seasons in the Majors. The speedster was a frequent late-season pickup for playoff hopefuls seeking a pinch-running specialist. He logged 94 games with the 2012 Tigers as a rookie but never came close to that mark again, ultimately wrapping up his time in the Majors with a .262/.333/.364 slash with 29 steals in 31 tries over the course of 132 games.

Berry also played in parts of 13 minor league seasons, hitting .257/.350/.327 with a whopping 399 steals. The last of those 13 seasons came in the Brewers organization in 2018, and he’s since been working as a minor league outfield and baserunning coordinator with the Brewers organization.

The rest of the coaching staff will look familiar to Brewers fans. Pat Murphy returns for a sixth season as Craig Counsell’s bench coach. Jason Lane will be one of the two base coaches along with Berry — their specific base designation has not yet been specified. Hitting coach Andy Haines, pitching coach Chris Hook and bullpen coach Steve Karsay are all returning for their third years on the staff. Assistant hitting coach Jacob Cruz is back for a second season, and the Brewers are also returning Walker McKinven as their associate pitching, catching and strategy coach.

Ryon Healy Elects Free Agency

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Brewers infielder Ryon Healy has rejected an outright assignment to Triple-A and has elected to become a free agent, the team announced.  This is the second straight winter that Healy has made such a decision, opting to enter free agency last offseason when the Mariners outrighted him off their 40-man roster.

Healy signed a one-year deal with Milwaukee last December and ended up playing four big league games during the 2020 regular season, though Healy was also the Brewers’ starting designated hitter in Game 2 of their wild card series against the Dodgers.  Injuries (most notably to Ryan Braun) and a lack of hitting depth on the Brewers’ roster led to Healy’s unexpected playoff duty, and he went 0-for-3 in what ended up being Milwaukee’s last game of 2020.

It wasn’t long ago that Healy was a potential building block piece by the Mariners, who acquired him from the A’s in the 2017-18 offseason.  He couldn’t build on the promising numbers he posted in Oakland, however, and simply couldn’t consistently get on base against Major League pitching.  Over 1606 career plate appearances in the big leagues, Healy has hit .261/.298/.450 with 69 home runs.  He was also significantly hampered by injuries in 2019, undergoing hip surgery in August of that year.

Latest On Angels’ GM Search

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OCT. 30, 6:07pm: Brewers assistant GM Matt Arnold has also interviewed with the Angels, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Arnold was a candidate for Pittsburgh’s GM vacancy last winter, but that position went to Ben Cherington.

3:47pm: Ricciardi is not a candidate, Fletcher tweets. Former Giants GM Bobby Evans has received an interview, though, and Mariners assistant GM Justin Hollander (formerly with the Angels) is also in the mix, according to Fletcher. Additionally, they’ve reached out to Eddie Bane, their former scouting director, to gauge his interest in the GM job, Robert Murray reports.

OCT. 29, 11:01pm; Former Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill, Nationals special assistant to the GM Dan Jennings and Cubs VP of player personnel Jason McLeod are also in the running, according to Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.

10:28pm: The Angels have moved slowly to find a new general since firing Billy Eppler at the end of September, but at least a few names have emerged for the job, per reports from Robert Murray, Jon Heyman of MLB Network, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times and Mike Puma of the New York Post.

According to the aforementioned group of reporters, Diamondbacks assistant general managers Jared Porter and Amiel Sawdaye, Athletics assistant Billy Owens and Padres senior advisor Logan White have all interviewed for the job in Anaheim. Giants special advisor J.P. Ricciardi, once the Blue Jays’ GM, is also in the running. The Angels also contacted Cubs vice president of scouting Dan Kantrovitz to gauge his interest in the position, but he’s not a candidate. Kantrovitz turned down the Angels’ overtures and will stay with the Cubs in 2021, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports.

While both Porter and Sawdaye received new contracts with the Diamondbacks just over a year ago, perhaps they’re amenable to taking over another team’s baseball operations. Owens just finished his 19th season in the A’s front office, though he may be open to a change with executive VP Billy Beane possibly set to pursue other interests. And then there’s White, who previously worked for the Dodgers but has been with the Padres since before 2015.

Of course, anyone succeeding Eppler will be taking over a fairly appealing situation. The Angels have missed the postseason six times in a row, but they have the game’s best player, center fielder Mike Trout, as well as a great complement in third baseman Anthony Rendon. Infielder David Fletcher, two-way player Shohei Ohtani, young outfielder Jo Adell and starters Dylan Bundy and Andrew Heaney are also on hand. Plus, owner Arte Moreno has typically been willing to spend, so the budget shouldn’t be a hindrance for the club’s next GM.

Brewers Decline Options On Gamel, Gyorko, Sogard

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2:18 pm: Sogard’s option will also be declined, relays Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (Twitter link).

12:42 pm: The Brewers are declining Gyorko’s $4.5MM option in lieu of a $1MM buyout, reports Robert Murray (Twitter link). The 32-year-old will return to free agency on the heels of a strong .248/.333/.504 line over 135 plate appearances.

11:33 am: The Brewers are declining their $2.55MM club option on outfielder Ben Gamel, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). The 28-year-old remains eligible for arbitration, however, having accrued just three-plus years of MLB service. Arbitration figures are harder than ever to pin down this offseason thanks to the shortened season, but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Gamel to earn between $1.7MM and $2.1MM if tendered a contract.

It’s possible the Brewers’ internal metrics also pegged Gamel for a likely lower arbitration salary than the value of the option. In that case, there’d be little reason for the team not to decline the option, even if they plan on keeping him in the fold.

Gamel hit a serviceable but hardly spectacular .237/.315/.404 with three home runs over 127 plate appearances in 2020. That’s in line with his production over the course of his career. The left-handed hitter is probably best suited in a corner, but he’s capable of playing center field if need be.

Milwaukee already declined their half of Ryan Braun’s $15MM mutual option yesterday, making him a free agent. They’ll also have to decide on options for Jedd Gyorko and Eric Sogard, each of whom would hit the open market if their option were declined.

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