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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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In what most expected to be another transitional season, the Brewers spent much of the year in contention for the NL Central title and finished just shy of an NL Wild Card berth. With an 86-76 record under their belts and a promising core of controllable players, the Brewers will no longer enter the offseason with a “rebuilding” label and will instead likely add pieces with an eye toward winning in 2018 and beyond.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Ryan Braun, OF: $57MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 option)
  • Eric Thames, 1B/OF: $12MM through 2019 (includes buyout of 2020 option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (Service time in parenthesis; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Milwaukee Brewers Depth Chart | Milwaukee Brewers Payroll Outlook]

General manager David Stearns and his staff caught some flak from Brewers fans this summer for not acting more aggressively to add pieces to a surprising contender. While flipping prospects Ryan Cordell and Eric Hanhold to add a pair of solid veteran rentals (Swarzak and Walker) definitely strengthened the roster, the division-rival Cubs went for broke and shelled out multiple top prospects for Jose Quintana, Justin Wilson and Alex Avila. It’s possible that had the Brewers splurged in similar fashion, adding Quintana or Sonny Gray, that they could’ve emerged as the NL Central champs, but Stearns & Co. steadfastly refused to part with top-echelon prospects — most notably center field prospect Lewis Brinson. Now, they’ll spend the offseason looking for long-term help while holding onto the luxury of plugging Brinson and other top prospects into the lineup in the near future.

Starting on the position-player side of the equation, the Brewers made several then-unheralded moves in the 2016-17 offseason that now look to have helped form a solid nucleus. Manny Pina enjoyed a breakout behind the plate and should at the very least be in an even timeshare with Stephen Vogt (or another veteran backstop should Vogt be non-tendered). Eric Thames cooled after a Cinderella start to his comeback season in MLB, but his overall numbers were strong. Jesus Aguilar, a waiver claim out of the Indians organization last winter, gives Thames an affordable platoon partner. Travis Shaw, meanwhile, was deemed expendable by the Red Sox with Rafael Devers on the horizon and instead broke out as one of the NL’s best third basemen after the Brewers acquired him in a December trade.

Top prospect Orlando Arcia showed quite well at shortstop as the season wore on, and the Brewers will return Braun and Domingo Santana as corner outfield options with plenty of pop. (Thames, too, can play some corner outfield.) Keon Broxton saw the bulk of the time in center field in 2017 and could be reinstalled there to open the 2018 season if the Brewers want to play some service time games with Brinson. But center field should go to Brinson by midseason, assuming good health, so it’s possible that the Brewers will look to shop Broxton this summer. His 37 percent strikeout clip is an eyesore, but Broxton has plenty of speed and power, and he handles center field well enough. Brett Phillips gives the Brew Crew another option in center, should they ultimately move Broxton, or he could simply spell Braun, Broxton and Santana in a semi-regular role.

The biggest question mark for the Brewers, then, is at second base. Jonathan Villar had a breakout 2016 season, but the Brewers likely feel as though they dodged a bullet when Villar reportedly rejected a contract extension last offseason. The 26-year-old’s strikeout woes returned stronger than ever in 2017, and he hit just .241/.293/.372 in 436 PAs. Veteran Eric Sogard saw plenty of action at second base as Villar lost playing time, and Walker stepped in and hit well there following his acquisition. With both Walker and Sogard set to hit the open market, the Brewers will need to decide whether they can once again trust Villar or if external reinforcements are needed.

Re-signing Sogard to an affordable one-year deal could provide some insurance, but the Brewers must now also think more like a contender. If there’s an obvious hole to fill, they’ll likely covet more certainty. Milwaukee had interest in Ian Kinsler before the non-waiver deadline, and he’s all but certain to be traded by the Tigers this winter. Re-signing Walker would be more expensive than retaining Sogard, though he’d bring more reliable production. Other free-agent options are fairly thin, though Howie Kendrick and Eduardo Nunez could stabilize the spot. The trade front is more interesting, where Philadelphia’s Cesar Hernandez and Miami’s Dee Gordon will both be available. Gordon is owed $38MM over the next three seasons, but the Brewers can afford to take on some significant financial commitments this winter.

It’s also worth mentioning that Braun’s name figures to once again surface in trade rumors at least occasionally this offseason. However, he’s coming off his worst season since 2014 and has full veto power over any trades (to say nothing of the $57MM he’s still owed through 2020). A deal doesn’t seem particularly likely.

On the pitching front, things are far less clear for the Brewers. Emergent ace Jimmy Nelson will miss a yet-unreported amount of time in 2018 following shoulder surgery. That leaves Chase Anderson and Zach Davies as the two locks for rotation spots. Brent Suter performed well in 14 starts, but he’s averaged just 124 1/3 innings across the past three seasons. Relying on him for 170+ frames would be difficult, but he’ll certainly be in next year’s rotation mix. Righty Brandon Woodruff showed flashes of potential but didn’t cement himself, while Junior Guerra posted terrible numbers in his followup to his out-of-the-blue rookie success at age 31. Touted prospect Josh Hader shined in the bullpen, but the lefty will likely get a look as a starter next year.

The Brewers look as though they’ll need to add at least one established starter, and making a second, smaller-scale addition wouldn’t be unwise. One glance at the “guaranteed contracts” section above is evidence that they could afford to spend as aggressively as they wish this offseason, though the team’s lower payroll ceiling creates less margin for error when shelling out cash to a Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish. Second-tier names like Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn seem much more plausible, though their last foray into that price range (Garza) didn’t pan out.

Alternatively, the Brewers have an exceptionally deep farm — deep enough that they can acquire both one-year rentals and more controllable options. Given the Brewers’ questionable on-paper rotation, relatively blank payroll slate and wealth of prospects, there are literally dozens of scenarios on which to potentially speculate. Suffice it to say — they’ll be connected to a plethora of arms this winter.

The Milwaukee bullpen brings a bit more clarity. Corey Knebel broke out as one of the game’s most dominant relievers, posting baseball’s fourth-highest strikeout percentage and second-highest K/9 rate in 2017. His walk rate is still troublesome, but Knebel functioned as a genuinely elite bullpen weapon in his record-setting 2017 season (most consecutive relief appearances with at least one strikeout). If Hader isn’t in the rotation, he’ll be back in the bullpen, pairing with Knebel to create a formidable duo. Jacob Barnes and Jared Hughes should return as additional right-handed options. Jeffress is a fan favorite in Milwaukee and showed improvement after returning in a July 31 trade, but his overall output makes less certain to be brought back. I’d still expect him to be tendered, though perhaps at a lower rate than the projected $2.6MM sum, as our algorithm doesn’t factor in context such as Jeffress’ off-the-field issues.

Swarzak was terrific after being acquired from the White Sox, so a potential reunion with him is something the Brewers will surely explore. Milwaukee also needs to add at least one left-handed reliever — if not two, depending on what happens with Hader. The Brewers were without a southpaw reliever for much of the year and certainly would prefer to have greater matchup flexibility in 2018 and beyond. Tyler Webb is one intriguing internal option, and the free-agent market bears names such as Jake McGee, Brian Duensing and Tony Watson. As ever, the trade market will be rife with options in this department, though Brad Hand stands out as the likeliest name to be bandied about on the rumor mill this winter.

An oft-overlooked component of the offseason among fans is the possibility of extending core pieces. While many focus on what pieces can be added to a contending core (or shipped off of a rebuilding roster), the Brewers are in a strong position to obtain some cost certainty and perhaps some additional club control over long-term cornerstones. After trying to do with Villar last winter, they’ll likely try once again with other targets as Spring Training nears in 2018. Arcia, Shaw and Davies all make sense as candidates for a long-term pact. Anderson does as well, to a lesser extent. He’s already controlled through his age-32 season, but the club could try to buy out his arbitration years in one fell swoop and possibly tack on a club option over his age-33 season in exchange for the up-front payday. As a late bloomer, he could be more amenable to that type deal than some younger arms would be.

The Brewers enter the 2017-18 offseason with a sizable portion of a contending club already in place, though they’ll still need to make some adjustments — most notably at second base and on the pitching staff. Their unexpected status as contenders in 2017 has undoubtedly accelerated their timeline to contention, though, and their deep stash of prospects and pristine long-term payroll ledger should give Stearns and his charges plenty of opportunities to creatively supplement a roster that roster that looks infinitely better than it did one year ago at this time.

Brewers Announce Front Office Promotions

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  • The Brewers’ David Stearns-led front office has promoted Karl Mueller to vice president of player personnel, Matt Kleine to director of baseball operations and Scott Campbell to special assignment scout, according to a team announcement. Mueller, a 14-year veteran of Milwaukee’s baseball department, spent the past two seasons in Kleine’s new position. Kleine, who’s entering his 12th year with the Brewers, most recently served as their manager of baseball operations. Campbell, yet another longtime member of the organization (he’s entering his 13th year), was the Brewers’ assistant director of video scouting from 2015-17.

Five Brewers Minor Leaguers Select Free Agency

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Right-handers Wily Peralta, Rob Scahill, Michael Blazek, David Goforth, and outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis have all elected to become free agents, as per the Brewers’ player development Twitter feed (tip of the hat to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy).

Peralta is the most notable name of the bunch, as it wasn’t long ago that the righty looked like a promising part of Milwaukee’s rotation.  After posting solid numbers in 2013-14, however, Peralta’s form dipped the next two seasons and then cratered this year, as he managed only a 7.85 ERA over 57 1/3 IP, with 10 homers and 32 walks in that stretch.  Peralta wasn’t helped by a month-long DL stint due to a calf strain, but his performance also fell off at the Triple-A level over the last two seasons.

His struggles got him designated for assignment and then outrighted off Milwaukee’s 40-man roster over the summer, which allowed Peralta to elect free agency even though he still had two remaining years of team control thanks to Super Two status.  Peralta and the Brewers avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $4.275MM deal last winter.

Blazek was twice DFA’ed and then outrighted off Milwaukee’s roster this season, so it perhaps isn’t surprising that he’s looking for a chance of scenery, especially given his displeasure at being demoted to the minors during Spring Training.  Blazek only made five appearances (one of them a start) for the Brewers in 2017, posting an 8.31 ERA over 8 2/3 innings of work.  The righty posted very effective numbers out of Milwaukee’s bullpen in 2015 but ran into some injury problems and struggled in 2016.

Scahill was also twice designated for assignment this season, plus once more back in February.  The 30-year-old tossed 22 1/3 innings for the Brew Crew, posting a 4.43 ERA despite recording the same number of strikeouts (10) as walks, though four of those free passes were intentional.  Never one to miss many bats over his six years in the bigs, Scahill nevertheless posted a solid 3.03 ERA over 65 1/3 innings for the Pirates and Brewers in 2015-16.

Nieuwenhuis agreed to a split contract last winter and spent much of the season at Triple-A, only appearing in 16 big league games.  Nieuwenhuis received the most playing time of his six-year career in 2016 (125 games and 392 PA) but became an afterthought this year as the Crew had more outfield depth.

Goforth appeared in just one game for the Brewers in 2017, and has 36 1/3 Major League innings to his name after appearing in parts of the last three seasons.  The right-hander has a 3.96 ERA over 533 2/3 career frames in the minors (all in the Milwaukee organization), though he has had increasing control issues and a lack of strikeouts over the last couple of years.

Brewers To Look At Second Base, Starting Pitching In Offeason

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Second base is “a position we’re going to have to take a long look at,” Brewers GM David Stearns said during the team’s end-of-season meeting with reporters (including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).  Jonathan Villar’s struggles required the Brew Crew to trade for Neil Walker in August, and now with Walker headed for free agency and Eric Sogard (another free agent) perhaps best suited for utility duty, a decision will need to be made about giving Villar another chance or perhaps looking for another addition.  Starting pitching is another need given the uncertainty surrounding Jimmy Nelson’s return from a labrum procedure, though manager Craig Counsell said it was too early to consider whether Josh Hader could be moved into a rotation role.

Brewers' Impending FAs Discuss Plans

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The Brewers’ impending free agents – infielders Neil Walker and Eric Sogard, reliever Anthony Swarzak and starter Matt Garza – spoke about their futures Sunday with Adam McCalvy of MLB.com and other reporters. Walker, the most noteworthy of the bunch, suggested that he’s keen on testing the open market in the offseason, though the August trade acquisitions did note that Milwaukee “is the type of team I’m going to be looking at. One that’s ready to win now and one that I can help.” Sogard and Swarzak made it clear they’d like to return to the Brewers, meanwhile, with the latter saying: “There’s still room to get better, and hopefully everybody in Brewers Nation gets to see a better Anthony Swarzak next year, because I want to stay here. I want to make another push here.”

While there’s clearly more baseball ahead of Walker, Sogard and Swarzak, the elder statesman of the group, Garza, admitted that his career could be at an end. The soon-to-be 34-year-old Garza acknowledged that he has struggled over the past couple seasons and said he’s “not expecting much” in the way of offers during the winter. Garza is wrapping up the four-year, $50MM contract he inked with the Brewers prior to the 2014 campaign. The righty made 96 appearances (93 starts) as a Brewer and logged a 4.65 ERA/4.38 FIP with the team.

Matt Garza Does Not Have 2018 Option, Will Become Free Agent

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Contrary to what had previously been known about Matt Garza’s contract, the Brewers no longer have a 2018 option on the right-hander, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets. The option was voided after he crossed a games pitched threshold. Without the option, Garza is set to hit free agency this winter as his four-year, $50MM contract comes to an end.

Garza’s contract had a vesting option for 2018 that would have automatically exercised at $13MM if he had 110 starts from 2014-17 and under certain other conditions. He had only started 93 games in that time frame, however. The vesting option would have become a $1M club option if Garza had spent over 130 days on the disabled list in any season from 2014 through 2017, but he did not. It was previously thought that, in the absence of the $13MM vesting option or the $1M team option, the Brewers would have a $5MM team option, but evidently that isn’t the case.

It didn’t appear especially likely that the Brewers would exercise Garza’s option even at the reduced $5MM price. Jimmy Nelson is already set to miss the start of the 2018 season, and not having an option on Garza further reduces the club’s flexibility, but it still appears likely that the Brewers would have looked elsewhere for starting pitching help or relied on other internal options even if they could have kept Garza at $5MM.

After a strong first season in Milwaukee, Garza has struggled, and this year he’s posted a 4.94 ERA, 6.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 while missing time to groin and leg issues. He also struggled down the stretch and was removed from the Brewers’ rotation weeks ago. That’s not exactly a world-beating performance, particularly when considered in the broader context of a third straight underwhelming season — since 2015, Garza has a 5.10 ERA, 6.2 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 over 365 innings. The Brewers also might generally prefer to go with younger pitchers.

Nathan Kirby Pitching In Instructional League

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  • Brewers left-handed pitching prospect Nathan Kirby, who hasn’t pitched in two years due to a pair of elbow surgeries, is back on the mound in the team’s instructional league, tweets Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. The former University of Virginia ace was at one point a projected top five pick in the 2015 draft but slipped to the Brewers at No. 40 overall that year due to injury concerns. Tommy John surgery cost Kirby the 2016 season, and he had a second elbow procedure earlier this year. While it’s hardly the start to his pro career that Kirby had envisioned, he’s not yet 24 years of age, so there’s certainly time for him to get back on track.

Jeremy Jeffress Hopes To Return To Brewers

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  • Brewers reliever Jeremy Jeffress talks about his rehab process and desire to remain in Milwaukee in an interview with Todd Rosiak of The Journal Sentinel. Jeffress expresses hope that the Brewers will tender him this coming offseason, gives some explanation behind his struggles in Texas, and talks about being traded to the Royals early in his career. Jeffress has seen his walk rate spike dramatically since being traded to the Rangers at the deadline last season; he’s walked 4.74 batters per nine innings since that trade. However, his 67% ground ball rate so far in the second half of 2017 is intriguing and certainly valuable if he can sustain something close to it.

Brewers Notes: Braun, Quintana, Hader

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  • Brewers left fielder Ryan Braun wouldn’t have been minded going to the Dodgers had the teams’ talks last summer led to a trade, per Rosenthal. Now, Braun’s happier than ever in Milwaukee, which has unexpectedly turned into a playoff contender this season. “I do love it here. If I didn’t, I probably would have been out of here a long time ago,” Braun told Rosenthal. Playing his age-33 season, in which injuries have limited him to 394 plate appearances, Braun has slashed .274/.345/.503 – somewhat modest production by his standards. With $57MM left on his contract, including a $4MM buyout in 2021, he’d be a difficult player for the low-payroll Brewers to move even if they wanted to part with him. Braun also has a full no-trade clause and 10-and-5 rights, further decreasing the likelihood of a trade.
  • Speaking of potential Brewers trades, they weren’t willing to deal rookie left-hander Josh Hader in a package for White Sox southpaw Jose Quintana back in July, Rosenthal reports. The Sox ended up sending Quintana to one of the Brewers’ NL Central rivals, the Cubs, for a return including outfielder Eloy Jimenez and right-hander Dylan Cease. Milwaukee might not have topped that in the White Sox’s eyes even if it offered outfielder Lewis Brinson and righty Luis Ortiz, as the South Siders were bent on landing Jimenez, Rosenthal suggests. As for Hader, the 23-year-old has turned in 44 relief innings of 1.64 ERA ball, with 12.48 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9, making him one of the Brewers’ best players this season.

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