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NL Rumors & Notes: Brewers, Lowrie, Nats, Giants, Pillar, Kelly

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Following last month’s non-tender of Jonathan Schoop, the Brewers’ exhaustive, months-long search for a second baseman continues with the team’s pursuit of Jed Lowrie, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Lowrie, of course, is fresh off an outstanding, 4.9 fWAR 2018 season with Oakland, itself on the back almost identical offensive campaign (119 wRC+ in ’17, 122 in ’18) the year before. MLBTR projects the 34-year-old to earn a solid 3-year, $30MM deal this offseason, though Lowrie’s camp, given his recent two-year output, will surely be fighting for more. The risk with the switch-hitter lies in his subpar performance across multiple seasons (2011, ’14, ’15, and ’16), in obvious addition to his age and former propensity for the serious injury, plus the tendency of second basemen to decline earlier than most, but there could be surplus value aplenty to be found if he continues on his current trajectory.

In other news from around the NL …

  • The Nationals, another team with a hole at the keystone, offered Ian Kinsler a one-year deal before the 36-year-old signed a two-year pact with San Diego, per Rosenthal. Earlier this week, the club was said to have “checked-in” with free agent second-sacker D.J. LeMahieu, who would likely command a deal in excess length to the one offered to Kinsler, so it seems unclear as to exactly which direction the club will go in terms of filling the position. Carter Kieboom, a 21-year-old middle-infield prospect, has raked in the low levels of the minors and may just be a season and a half or so away, so perhaps the club is seeking just a one- or two-year stopgap in the interim.
  • Per Alex Pavlovic of NBA Bay Area, the outfield-naked Giants are interested in Blue Jays CF Kevin Pillar.  The club, who in years past has shown little interest in staking a defense-first player at the position, despite its park’s huge territory in right-center field, may be undergoing a philosophical about-face under its new, analytics-driven regime.  The club, of course, is stacked with right-handed fly-ball types in the rotation, and would seem to benefit in large measure from a ball-hawking center-fielder like Pillar.  The 29-year-old’s defensive metrics took a bit of a hit last season, but his peak from ’15-’17 (50 DRS) has rarely been matched in recent times. 25-year-old Steven Duggar would seem, at least in part, to fit the bill, but whether or not his bat will play – Steamer projects an 81 wRC+ for ’19 – is still an open question.
  • New Dodgers reliever Joe Kelly, who this week agreed to a 3-year, $25MM with the team, explained (audio version) to WEEI’s Rob Bradford why he chose LA, noting that the team was the first to extend its offer to three years. Though the duration may come as little surprise, it is notable that it came from the Dodgers, who in recent times (Kenley Jansen excluded) have preferred their relievers to be of the under-the-radar variety.

Pitcher Notes: Fiers, Sanchez, Brewers, Claudio

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Free agent starter Mike Fiers is being courted by multiple clubs, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). Among those with interest are the Reds, Giants, Rangers and Nationals, none of whom should surprise given their collective desire for more pitching. Fiers, 33, had his best year as a pro in 2018, working to a 12-8 record with a 3.56 ERA across 30 starts for Detroit and Oakland. His peripherals don’t scream drastic transformation, though he did lower his walk rate to a career-low 1.94 BB/9. He also threw more sliders, a pitch he has steadily worked into his repertoire since 2015, which could signal sustainability for Fiers’ 2018 success. Park factors for Comerica Park and the Oakland Coliseum definitely worked in his favor, so it’s fair to wonder how his stuff will fare in the bandboxes of Cincinnati, Texas, and Washington, especially considering increased use of his slider corresponded with a similar decrease in sinker usage, leading to elevated launch angles and more flyballs (43.2 FB%). Fiers has been homer prone in the past, though it’s a delicate balancing act for the righty, as he has generally been more effective when keeping the ball in the air – a strategy that obviously holds more water in Oakland than it would in, say, Cincinnati.

  • The opposite can be said of Anibal Sanchez, coming off a surprising comeback with the Atlanta Braves driven in part by a return to the wormburning ways of his early career. His groundball rate (45 GB%) returned to career levels after dipping below 40% for a two-year stretch that just so happened to produce career-high ERAs. Atlanta has interest in bringing the righty back for 2019, per Morosi (via Twitter), but they’re not the only club with interest. Given their similar price points, Sanchez and Fiers likely share suitors, though the Reds and Nationals have shown the most interest in Sanchez thus far. A year and a half older than Fiers, Sanchez will be 35 by Opening Day.
  • It’s a little surprising not to see the Milwaukee Brewers listed as pursuers for the starters above, but a slow burn winter isn’t uncommon for the Brew Crew. They have made one notable move, sending a Competitive Balance draft pick to Texas for funky left-hander Alex Claudio. Interestingly, Claudio’s sidelong delivery may be more than an incidental quirk for the Brewers, per Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs. The Brewers now boast a relatively substantial stable of minor leaguers who rely on deception and unique throwing motions, enough of a sample to presume an organizational focus, or at least curiosity. Given the stirring ascendancy of Josh Hader, himself a non-traditional thrower, it’s interesting to see the Brewers potentially exploring a system-wide extrapolation of Hader’s success. From a player valuation standpoint, the one-for-one swap with Texas is noteworthy because of what it means about Milwaukee’s evaluation of college hurlers. The pick being sent to Texas likely lands somewhere in the 40s, where advanced college relievers are often available. Meanwhile, Claudio’s price is rising as a first-time arbitration player. One view supposes the cost-conscious Brewers must view the prospects available in that spot as less-than. The other view, of course, is that this deal is not a wholesale denunciation of the draft class, rather Milwaukee just likes Claudio and views his major league experience as present-day value for a team with legitimate pennant aspirations in 2019.

Brewers Acquire Alex Claudio

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The Brewers have officially struck a deal with the Rangers to acquire lefty Alex Claudio, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Texas will receive Milwaukee’s competitive balance pick in the deal, which will deliver the club a draft choice in the range of the 40th overall selection (with the final order yet to be fixed).

Claudio, 26, has made the most of his arsenal with impeccable command and an uncanny ability to generate groundballs and limit dingers. Over his five seasons of MLB action, the southpaw has averaged 6.2 K/9 against just 1.9 BB/9 with a hefty 62.5% groundball rate.

While he never seemed likely to hang onto the closer’s role he briefly occupied in 2017, Claudio has mostly been an effective relief arm. His lifetime 3.20 ERA, though, reflects a string of productive seasons that was followed by a 4.48 mark in 2018.

The Brewers will hope that most recent set of results was unduly influenced by a .366 batting average on balls in play. Claudio did allow more hard contact than usual (36.0%), but Statcast also felt he was unfortunate to carry a .352 wOBA, with the system crediting him with a .315 xwOBA. Though he doesn’t get many strikeouts, Claudio managed an 11.4% swinging-strike rate in 2018.

Though the Milwaukee relief corps already features one of the game’s most exciting lefties in Josh Hader, he’s utilized as a high-leverage asset. Claudio will presumably serve in more of a specialist role. He has held opposing lefties to a .191/.220/.278 slash over his career.

The Brewers will take over Claudio’s anticipated arbitration salary, which MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz project at an affordable $1.3MM. He’ll remain controllable for two more campaigns in the future as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Brewers Avoid Arbitration With Jimmy Nelson

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The Brewers have avoided arbitration with right-hander Jimmy Nelson by agreeing to a one-year contract for 2019, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter link).  Nelson will earn $3.7MM in the deal, The Athletic’s Robert Murray tweets, which was Nelson’s salary from 2018 and the number that Haudricourt figured the righty would receive, given that Nelson missed all of last season recovering from shoulder surgery.  MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected the same $3.7MM figure for Nelson.

Before going under the knife in September 2017, Nelson was enjoying a breakout season, posting a 3.49 ERA, 10.2 K/9, and 4.15 K/BB rate over 175 1/3 innings for the Brew Crew.  It was originally believed that Nelson would return at some point in 2018, though delays in his rehab kept him off the mound and he missed out on contributing to Milwaukee’s run to the NLCS.

Nelson’s expected return in 2019 is a “true wild card” for the Brewers and their rotation, as Haudricourt notes.  The club has been checking in on available pitchers in free agency and trade talks, though a healthy and in-form Nelson would certainly be a major internal boost.

The Brewers now reached deals with four of their 10 arbitration-eligible players.  The club has now avoided hearings with Nelson, Hernan Perez, Tyler Saladino, and Erik Kratz.

Brewers Have Met With Ian Kinsler

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The Tigers, Brewers, Athletics and Nationals are among the teams interested in free-agent second baseman Ian Kinsler, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The Brewers have met with Kinsler at the Winter Meetings, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relays. Detroit’s inclusion on the list is particularly interesting in light of the fact that Kinsler thrived there from 2014-17, before the team traded him to the Angels last offseason. The 36-year-old ended up dividing the season between Anaheim and Boston, where he combined to hit a less-than-stellar .240/.301/.380 (87 wRC+) in 534 plate appearances. But to Kinsler’s credit, he swatted 14 home runs, stole 16 bases and, for the 12th consecutive season, posted at least 2.0 fWAR (2.3).

Brewers Met With Wilson Ramos

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  • The Brewers met yesterday with free agent backstop Wilson Ramos and his representatives, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reports. Positive vibes seem to have emerged from the sit-down on both sides, which could perhaps spur some momentum toward a match. The Mets met with Ramos today, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post was among those to tweet, though the New York club is seemingly pushing on other fronts first.

Brewers Notes: Murphy, Moustakas, Kikuchi, Miley

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The Brewers have interest in signing Daniel Murphy to address their second base hole, while the team has also had talks about re-signing Mike Moustakas for third base, The Athletic’s Robert Murray reports (subscription required).  Signing Murphy would perhaps be the cleaner fit, as it would allow Travis Shaw to remain at his ideal third base position.  Murphy’s second base glove is below-average, though being paired up the middle with an outstanding fielder like shortstop Orlando Arcia would at least somewhat mitigate that issue, and Murphy’s bat is still potent.  Bringing Moustakas back to Milwaukee would require Shaw to return to second base, a position he filled last season after the Moose was brought into the fold.  Murray also notes that the Cardinals “also like” Moustakas, though it’s hard to see where he would fit in St. Louis now that Paul Goldschmidt’s presence means that Matt Carpenter will be playing third base.

More from the dairy state…

  • The Brewers have an “extensive history” of scouting left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, GM David Stearns told media (including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) today at the Winter Meetings.  It isn’t clear, however, if the Brew Crew will be able to afford Kikuchi.  Stearns seemed to imply the team may be outbid, saying “generally those types of players command a large amount of money and can dictate where they want to go.”
  • Also from Stearns’ meeting with reporters (including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy), he noted that the team is open to the idea of re-signing Wade Miley.  The free agent lefty is testing his options in free agency, though Stearns is “keeping in touch” with Miley’s camp.
  • The front office has been “fielding incoming calls in certain areas of depth, and that’s normal. The key for us is we’re only going to move from areas of depth if we can get meaningful value,” Stearns said (all links to Haudricourt’s Twitter).  Haudricourt speculates that the GM is referring to first base, outfield, and maybe starting pitching, as Milwaukee has some level of surplus in all three areas.  In terms of spending, Stearns said the team won’t be forced to shift salary to make other moves, noting “I don’t see us putting ourselves in a position where we make a signing or acquisition that necessitates moving dollars elsewhere.”

Brewers Rumors: Santana, Broxton, Thames, 2B

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  • Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel looks at potential trade pieces at the major league level for the Brewers, naming Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton and Eric Thames as possible candidates. It’s “unlikely” the Brewers will retain both Santana and Broxton, as each outfielder is out of minor league options, notes Haudricourt, who adds that Thames “could be had in the right deal.” A first baseman/outfielder, Thames experienced a dip in production in 2018 and saw Jesus Aguilar take hold of the first base position in Milwaukee. The 32-year-old Thames is due $6MM in 2019, and with the Brewers having a limited amount of payroll room, getting his money off the books may help them upgrade elsewhere. Second base is one area Milwaukee could try to bolster, though considering high-end prospect Keston Hiura is looming, the team’s not going to make a long-term commitment there this offseason, Haudricourt relays.

Brewers Sign Deolis Guerra

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  • The Brewers have signed righty Deolis Guerra to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com tweets. The 29-year-old Guerra didn’t appear in the majors at all in 2018 after inking a minors pact with the Rangers last offseason. He did perform well as a member of the Rangers’ Triple-A club, however, as he notched a 3.75 ERA, 10.77 K/9, 2.43 BB/9 and a 48.3 percent groundball rate in 59 1/3 innings. Prior to 2018, Guerra saw major league action in each season from 2015-17 and combined for 95 innings of 4.17 ERA pitching, with 7.11 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 and a 40.1 percent grounder mark, with the Pirates and Angels.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/7/18

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Here are the day’s minor moves from around the league…

  • The Brewers announced a minor-league deal with catcher Tuffy Gosewisch. He’ll receive an invitation to MLB Spring Training as part of the arrangement. The 35-year-old has seen sporadic MLB action over five seasons, but has never hit enough (.190/.228/.271) to hang onto a job. He spent last year at Triple-A in the Nationals organization, where he batted .219/.310/.335. It’s conceivable that Gosewisch will compete in camp with fellow journeyman Erik Kratz, though the latter surely has the inside track to a big-league job. Of course, the club still could add another player to pair with Manny Pina behind the dish.
  • Former Giants outfielder Jarrett Parker has inked a minor league pact with the Angels, Fancred’s Jon Heyman reports (on Twitter). Parker, who’ll turn 30 on New Years Day, hasn’t appeared in the Majors since a 2017 season that was cut short by a broken collarbone. However, he has at times looked like a potentially productive corner outfielder, compiling a career .257/.335/.456 slash with 15 home runs in 382 MLB plate appearances — the majority of which have come in the vast expanses of San Francisco’s AT&T Park. If he makes the Angels’ roster, he’ll give the team a much-needed lefty bat off the bench.
  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that left-hander Hoby Milner accepted an outright assignment from the Rays after being removed from the 40-man roster and will be in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee. Milner was outrighted late last month but did have the option to reject his assignment in favor of free agency. Instead, he’ll vie for a bullpen spot in 2019. Soon to turn 28, Milner has an appealing 3.03 ERA in 38 2/3 career innings, but that’s accompanied by a lofty 4.9 BB/9 mark and an 86.2 percent strand rate that isn’t sustainable over the long run. Fielding-independent metrics suggest his ERA should be well north of 5.00. If Milner were to be used as a strict lefty specialist, though, he could likely find plenty of success. Left-handed opponents have hit just .177/.292/.277 against him in 98 big league plate appearances.

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