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Brewers Add Jim Henderson, Matt Erickson To Major League Staff

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The Brewers added a pair of new coaches to their major league staff, reports Will Sammon of The Athletic. The club named Jim Henderson its new bullpen coach and Matt Erickson as its infield and assistant hitting coach. Henderson replaces Steve Karsay, who stepped down last week citing a desire to spend more time with his family, while Erickson assumes a newly created role in manager Craig Counsell’s dugout.

Henderson’s playing career spanned parts of four major league seasons, including three with Milwaukee. He served as the Brewers’ primary closer in 2013, notching 28 saves alongside a 2.70 ERA in 60 innings across 61 appearances. After a rocky start to the 2014 season, the righty underwent shoulder surgery and never quite regained his form. He appeared in 44 games for the Mets in 2016, posting a 4.11 ERA in 45 innings, but never made it back to the bigs thereafter. He’s been a coach in the Milwaukee system since 2018, serving most recently as the pitching coach at Triple-A Nashville. Erickson, who notched one hit in six big-league plate appearances (all with the Brewers in 2004), had been the manager of the Low-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers since 2011.

Latest On Brewers’ Coaching Staff

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Steve Karsay is stepping down as the Brewers’ bullpen coach, Tom Haudricourt of The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.  Karsay is leaving the position due to family considerations.  There isn’t yet any word on a possible replacement as bullpen coach, though Haudricourt suggests that Triple-A pitching coach Jim Henderson might be a logical internal candidate.

Best known for his 11 seasons as a big league hurler from 1993-2006, Karsay transitioned into coaching and spent seven seasons in Cleveland’s organization as a pitching coach at four different minor league affiliates.  Karsay took over as Milwaukee’s bullpen coach prior to the 2019 season, and Haudricourt put it, Karsay was “serving in essence as co-pitching coach” alongside formal pitching coach Chris Hook and associate pitching/catching/strategy coach Walker McKinven.

In Karsay’s three seasons with the Brewers, Milwaukee relievers have led all bullpens in strikeout rate (27.9%) and rank second in SIERA (3.78).  Such arms as Josh Hader, Brent Suter and Devin Williams have been the cornerstones of the pen, but the Brew Crew has also been successful in turning unheralded arms into valuable relievers or in mining bounce-back seasons from more experienced pitchers looking for a change of scenery.

Beyond Karsay’s departure, another change to Craig Counsell’s staff could be in the offing.  Single-A manager Matt Erickson is under consideration for a promotion to the Brewers’ coaching ranks in an unspecified role (though not bullpen coach). Milwaukee is known to be looking for a third hitting coach, or Erickson could possibly be added in a more general coaching capacity.  The Brewers currently have 10 members of their coaching staff, with an 11th to be filled once Karsay’s replacement is found.

Erickson is a longtime member of the organization whose only MLB playing experience came in a four-game cup of coffee with the Brewers in 2004.  Since retiring, Erickson has both coached and (since 2011) managed his hometown team, as the A-level Wisconsin Timber Rattlers are located near Erickson’s birthplace of Appleton, Wisconsin.

Brewers Likely To Use J.C. Mejia In Relief

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A few weeks before the lockout, the Brewers acquired right-hander J.C. Mejía from the Guardians in exchange for cash considerations or a player to be named later. The 25-year-old had a tough rookie season in Cleveland, working to an 8.25 ERA/4.75 SIERA over 52 1/3 innings. He started 11 of his 17 appearances, holding down a rotation role for around two months while Cleveland dealt with concurrent injuries to Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale. Those lackluster results led to Mejía being designated for assignment after the season.

As part of a broader preview of the Brewers bullpen options, Will Sammon of the Athletic writes that the team would prefer to keep Mejía in a relief role moving forward. As Sammon points out, the righty did fare much better in his six relief appearances with Cleveland than he did as a starter last year. That’s an incredibly small sample on which to draw, but the Brewers’ strong rotation depth could afford them the opportunity to deploy Mejía in shorter stints. In 2021, he was rocked by left-handed batters (.328/.397/.656 in 137 plate appearances) but held his own against righties (.227/.327/.375 over 101 plate appearances). A bullpen role would give manager Craig Counsell some flexibility to shield Mejía from opposing clubs’ top lefty hitters.

Devin Williams Discusses Last Year’s Season-Ending Injury

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The most recent news about Devin Williams was from October 5, with Williams having undergone surgery on his pitching hand, which he had broken when punching a wall the week before. At the time, the Brewers had finished their regular season schedule and were a few days away from starting their NLDS matchup with the Braves. There was still hope then that Williams could pitch in the World Series, if the Brewers were able to make it that far. Unfortunately, it was their opponents in that series who made it to the World Series, with the Brewers falling to the Braves.

It’s impossible to say whether the Brewers would have fared any better in the alternate reality where Williams doesn’t punch that wall, but it’s hard not to wonder. He had an incredible breakout during the shortened 2020 campaign, throwing 27 innings with a miniscule ERA of 0.33 and an absurd 53% strikeout rate. It would have been impossible for Williams to maintain that level of dominance in the larger sample size of a full season, but he still pitched well enough to prove that it wasn’t a complete mirage. Over 54 innings in 2021, he put up an ERA of 2.50, along with a 38.5% strikeout rate, still well above league average. But the Brewers had to head into the playoffs without him, due to the actions of Williams himself.

Now three months later, Williams sat down with Will Sammon of The Athletic to discuss the incident and the events surrounding it. As detailed by Sammon, the incident took place the night of Sunday, September 26, after the Brewers clinched the NL Central, with the post-game celebrations that started in the clubhouse eventually making their way into the outside world. Although Williams doesn’t go into explicit detail about what happened, he says that he became “upset over an altercation” and that “instead of taking it out on that person, I walked away, hit a wall.”

After eventually realizing the severity of the injury days later, Williams was left with the difficult task of informing his teammates about the situation. On the subject of whether he adequately expressed himself in that moment, Williams told Sammon, “I think most people understood what I was trying to say. They got the message. But that … that was the most difficult part.”

However, despite the emotional toll of feeling like he disappointed his teammates, he hasn’t been spending his offseason completely mired in guilt. That’s at least partially attributable to Hunter Strickland who, though now a free agent, was with the Brewers at the time. He had a similar self-imposed injury when with the Giants in 2018 and told Williams, “You have to forgive yourself at some point and move on. Otherwise, you’re just holding yourself back, keeping yourself from moving forward.” When asked if he heeded Strickland’s advice, Williams said, “There was definitely a month and a half when I was just sitting there, couldn’t do anything and I was down on myself. But if I stayed like that, I would never get to where I want to be.”

Williams is now on pace to return to full health before reporting to spring training, gearing up for 2022. He figures to be an integral part of a Brewers pitching staff that is largely the same as the one that was among baseball’s best in 2021, as the club looks to make the postseason for a fifth consecutive season.

Brewers’ Enviable Rotation Depth Could Open Trade Possibilities For Front Office

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The Brewers’ star rotation trio of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta has drawn plenty of well-deserved attention. Burnes won the NL Cy Young Award for his excellence in 2021. Woodruff and Peralta were well-deserved All-Star selections, with the former also receiving a solid amount of Cy Young support.

Essentially no one else around the league can match that kind of firepower at the top of the rotation. But Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta weren’t the only Milwaukee starters to have strong showings in 2021. Fourth and fifth starters Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer may not have been as electric as their rotation mates, but they’re both overqualified for back-end roles.

Houser pitched to a 3.22 ERA over a career-high 142 1/3 innings last season. The righty’s 17.5% strikeout rate wasn’t impressive, but Houser’s a ground-ball machine who’s had a decent amount of success despite mediocre whiff rates throughout his career. He owns a solid 3.78 ERA since the start of 2019, showing a knack for suppressing opponents’ exit velocities and keeping the ball in the yard.

Lauer came over from the Padres as part of the Trent Grisham – Luis Urías swap over the 2019-20 offseason. He barely pitched in the majors during his first season in Milwaukee, but the southpaw held down a rotation spot for most of last year. Across 118 2/3 frames, Lauer posted a 3.19 ERA that was far and away the best mark of his career. His strikeout and walk rates — 23.9% and 8.4%, respectively — were right around the respective league averages.

Unlike Houser, Lauer doesn’t excel at keeping the ball on the ground. A 4.24 SIERA suggests he’s probably closer to a league average rotation arm than his ERA — which befits a #2/3 type starter — might suggest. Even still, league average production would be a notable upgrade for many clubs’ starting staffs around the league. There are quite a few hopeful contenders expected to look for back-of-the-rotation help coming out of the lockout, and there’s not much reliability with the remaining free agent starters. Teams like the Reds and A’s might make notable starters available, but clubs looking for back-end help could also view the Brewers as a plausible trade partner.

Milwaukee’s squarely in win-now mode, and there’s a case to be made for them to hold onto their rotation depth. Each of Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Houser and Lauer made 20+ starts last year, and the injury risk associated with any pitcher could make banking on a repeat of that kind of rotation durability risky. On the other hand, Milwaukee also has another promising young arm who could step into a permanent rotation role.

Aaron Ashby has been one of the top prospects in the Brewers system for the past few seasons. Public prospect evaluators have raised some questions about his spotty control, but Ashby has the kind of stuff to succeed against MLB hitters already. He debuted last season and flashed special ability. His 4.55 ERA over 31 2/3 innings isn’t eye-catching, but Ashby struck out 29.3% of opponents and racked up ground-balls at a massive 61.3% clip that even slightly exceeded Houser’s mark. Only White Sox setup man Aaron Bummer matched Ashby’s combination of strikeouts and grounders.

That alone doesn’t guarantee Ashby will be an impact starter. There’d be risk in moving one of Houser or Lauer to entrust him with a full-time rotation spot. But the Brewers at least have to be encouraged by the promise Ashby showed, and a Houser or Lauer trade could enable the front office to creatively address the offense. Milwaukee’s lineup was a touch below-average last season, and they’ve since lost Avisaíl García to free agency. The Brewers acquired Hunter Renfroe to replace García in right field, but the overall lineup could stand to pick up another bat, particularly if the new collective bargaining agreement adds the designated hitter to the National League.

Houser and Lauer are each entering their first season of arbitration eligibility. Assuming there aren’t any changes to the service time structure in the next CBA, they’d remain controllable through 2024. Both pitchers are projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for modest salaries between $2MM and $3MM next season. With Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta and Ashby all controllable for at least three more years themselves, the Brewers could contemplate dealing from their enviable rotation depth to bolster the offense after the transactions freeze.

Trying To Find Hidden Gems With BB/K

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A few days ago, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked back on the trade that sent LaMonte Wade Jr. to the Giants. At the time, Wade had a fairly unimpressive track record, but did have a knack for generating walks and limiting strikeouts. Whether that was what piqued the Giants’ interest or not, it worked out for them, as Wade had a nice season in 2021. His strikeout rate shot up, but he still hit 18 home runs and slashed .253/.326/.482, for a wRC+ of 117.

A young hitter’s command of the strike zone can often be a helpful indicator of future success, like it was in Wade’s case. Mookie Betts was never at the top of prospect lists, as he was on Baseball America’s Top 100 only once, coming in at #75 prior to the 2014 season. But looking back on his strikeout and walk rates in the minors, perhaps it should have been more obvious that he was a superstar in the making. At Low-A, A-Ball, High-A and Double-A, he posted a BB/K above 1.00, meaning he walked more than he struck out. At Triple-A in 2014, it was 0.87, still very impressive. Jose Ramirez never appeared on Baseball America’s Top 100, and even just among Cleveland prospects, he peaked at #9 in 2014. He also kept his BB/K rate around 1.00 for most of his time in the minors, and has carried that forward into the majors as well.

That’s not to say that every minor leaguer with a strong BB/K rate will turn into a superstar like Betts or Ramirez. Jace Peterson put up solid BB/K rates as well, but has settled in as an average-ish role player. Austin Barnes also had a keen eye throughout the minors, before becoming a solid second string catcher. But those players can still be plenty useful for a big league club. Can we find the next hidden gem of this type? Let’s sniff around. Here are some standout BB/K numbers from the minors in 2021.

Alejo Lopez, infielder, Reds, BB/K at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021: 1.41

A 27th round selection of the Reds in 2015, Lopez had never appeared on the club’s top 30 prospects list at Baseball America prior to this season. (He would eventually crack the midseason rankings, coming in at #21.) He had posted strong strikeout and walk numbers in rookie ball action in 2016 and 2017, putting up a BB/K above 1.00 in each year. In 2018 and 2019, he played in A-ball and High-A, with his BB/K slipping to around 0.50 in each year. After the pandemic canceled the minor leagues in 2020, Lopez hit the ground running in 2021. In 92 games between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .320/.401/.447, with a walk rate of 11% and strikeout rate of just 7.8%, leading to a huge BB/K of 1.41. He got called up for his MLB debut and didn’t hit much, but in a tiny sample size of 23 plate appearances. He’ll turn 26 in May.

Isaac Paredes, infielder, Tigers, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.19.

In 2018, Paredes reached Double-A for the first time and put up a BB/K rate of 0.86 in just 39 games. In 2019, he returned to Double-A and played in 127 games, improving his rate to 0.93. In 2020, the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues, but Paredes made his big league debut. The transition to MLB wasn’t terribly smooth as he hit .220 over 34 games, with a BB/K of just 0.33. In 2021, he spent the bulk of the year at Triple-A, playing 72 games there, hitting .265/.397/.451 while walking in an incredible 17.8% of his plate appearances and striking out just 14.9% of the time, for a BB/K ratio of 1.19. He also got into 23 more MLB games and had a BB/K rate of 0.91 there. Paredes has appeared on the backend of Baseball America’s Top 100, coming in at #94 before the 2019 season and #100 before 2020. He’s still quite young, as he won’t turn 23 until February.

Steven Kwan, outfielder, Guardians, BB/K at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021: 1.16

Kwan was selected by Cleveland in the fifth round of the 2018 draft and got into 17 games that year in the lower levels of their system. In 2019, he played 123 games at High-A, with a BB/K of 1.04. After missing out on 2020 due to the pandemic, he spent 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A, playing 77 games in total and logging 341 plate appearances. Overall, he hit .328/.407/.527, along with a walk rate of 10.6% and strikeout rate of 9.1%, winding up with a final BB/K of 1.16. He’s never been on Baseball America’s prospects for Cleveland, though he did just barely crack FanGraphs’ list a year ago, taking the final spot on a list of 49. The Guardians added him to their 40-man roster in November.

Tyler White, infielder, Blue Jays, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.10

A 33rd round draft pick of the Astros in 2013, White has never been viewed as a top prospect. He only appeared on Baseball America’s top 30 Houston Astros’ prospect list once, coming in at #16 back in 2016. But he has always had a good eye for the strike zone. His first crack at Double-A was 59 games in 2015, where his BB/K was 1.20. In 57 games at Triple-A that same year, it was 1.11. He made his MLB debut the following year and appeared in parts of four seasons from 2016 to 2019. He showed some promise with the bat in 2017 and 2018 but floundered in 2019 before joining the SK Wyverns of the KBO for 2020. In 2021, he signed a minors deal with the Blue Jays, playing 105 games and hitting .292/.424/.476. His walk rate was 18.1% and his strikeout rate was 16.5%, for a final BB/K rate of 1.10. Despite that tremendous year at the plate, he never got the call to the big leagues, likely due to his limited positional flexibility. Other than one game at third base, he was exclusively a first baseman or designated hitter in 2021. Now 31, he signed a minor league deal with the Brewers last month.

Cooper Hummel, utility, Brewers/Diamondbacks, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.03

Hummel was selected by the Brewers in the 16th round of the 2016 draft and never appeared on Baseball America’s top 30 prospects for the club. In 2021, he started the year at Triple-A and got into 46 games for the Nashville Sounds, racking up an incredible BB/K of 1.58. He was flipped to the Diamondbacks as part of the Eduardo Escobar trade and got into 46 more games after that. Although his BB/K was just 0.63 after the trade, he still finished the year at 1.03 overall. Oh, and he hit .353/.429/.575 after the deal. Now 27, the Diamondbacks added Hummel to their 40-man roster in November.

Jonah Bride, utility, Athletics, BB/K at Double-A in 2021: 1.00

Bride was a 23rd round selection of the Athletics in 2018. He hit well in his first couple of minor league seasons, but took a step forward in 2021 in terms of plate discipline. His walk rate and strikeout rate were equal at 17.1%, as he had exactly 57 of each in 334 Double-A plate appearances. He’s never been on Baseball America’s top 30 Oakland prospects, but FanGraphs just placed him 17th in the organization, noting that he recently started an attempt to convert from an infielder into a catcher. He was added to Oakland’s 40-man roster in November.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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Now that the new year is upon us, it could also conceivably be the last year for several managers or lead front office executives (i.e. president of baseball operations, general manager, chief baseball officer, or whatever title a club bestows upon its top baseball decision-maker) in their current jobs if their teams don’t enjoy some success in 2022.  With this in mind, here is the list of team personnel facing particular pressure — the managers and top execs who are entering the last guaranteed year of their contracts.

This list is by no means exhaustive.  Firstly, some clubs don’t publicly disclose specifics of management contracts, or even whether or not an employee has signed an extension until weeks or months after the fact.  It could be that some of the names mentioned are already locked up beyond 2022, or perhaps have already signed extensions in the last few weeks that won’t be made official until after the lockout.  While transactions involving Major League players are prohibited during the lockout, teams are free to proceed with normal business involving team personnel, so some club might look to handle other internal matters in advance of the transactional avalanche that will come when the lockout finally ends.

Second of all, any number of factors beyond just contract status can influence an employee’s job status, and sometimes on-field success isn’t enough (just ask former Cardinals skipper Mike Shildt).  However, extra years on a contract is usually the simplest way to gauge just how much leeway a manager or front office boss has, barring something unforeseen.  It’s probably safe to assume that most or all of the names listed wouldn’t mind a little extra job security, if for no other reason than to avoid a season of media questions about their future, or the perception of any “lame duck” status from their own players or staff.

Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contracts.  Onto the list…

Angels: Owner Arte Moreno is a huge Joe Maddon fan, but since bringing Maddon back to the organization on a three-year, $12MM contract, the Halos have recorded two losing seasons.  In fairness to Maddon, he has rarely gotten to deploy an Angels roster at the peak of its potential, as Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Shohei Ohtani (who barely pitched in 2020) have been injured or limited for large chunks of Maddon’s tenure.  Since the veteran skipper turns 68 in February, there might also be some question about just how much longer Maddon himself wants to keep up with the grind of a regular-season schedule, especially after the challenges of managing a team through the pandemic.  With the clock ticking on Ohtani’s team control and Trout’s prime, another losing season might inspire some changes in Anaheim.

Astros: Back in November, Dusty Baker received a one-year contract extension that takes the veteran skipper through the 2022 campaign.  It isn’t the type of job security you’d expect for a manager who just took his team to a World Series appearance, but Houston appears content to go year-to-year with Baker, perhaps owing to his age (Baker turns 73 in June).

Athletics: Billy Beane has been running Oakland’s front office since 1997, and while the exact length of his current contract isn’t known, it is probably safe to assume Beane will have his job as long as he wishes.  Beane withdrew his name from consideration from the Mets’ search when New York showed interest in Beane’s services this past fall, and for now, it seems as though he and GM David Forst are preparing to lead the A’s through yet another spin of the payroll-cutting “cycle” so familiar to Oakland fans.  Since Beane also owns a minority share of the team, there would be an added layer of complication for the A’s in removing Beane if they did decide to make a change.

Blue Jays: Manager Charlie Montoyo was initially signed to a three-year deal with a club option for 2022, and the Jays exercised that option last March.  The club might have been taking a bit of a wait-and-see approach by not negotiating any more additional years with Montoyo, but since Toronto won 91 games last season, Montoyo would now seem like a prime candidate for a longer-term deal.  Montoyo has won praise both for the Blue Jays’ success over the last two seasons, and his steady leadership over a difficult period, with the pandemic forcing the Jays to play “home” games in Buffalo and Dunedin before finally returning to Toronto last July.

Brewers: David Stearns’ contract has been the subject of great speculation in recent months, as the Mets were focused on poaching the president of baseball operations away from Milwaukee.  With Billy Eppler now inked to a four-year contract as the Mets’ new GM, it could be that Amazins could be moving away from Stearns, but several other teams might have interest if Stearns is indeed available anytime soon.  The exact length or nature of Stearns’ contract isn’t known, as 2022 might be his last guaranteed year, but there may be a vesting option of some type in place that would keep Stearns with the Brew Crew through the 2023 season.  For his own part, Stearns has said that he is happy with the Brewers, and owner Mark Attanasio obviously covets his PBO, as Attanasio has rejected all overtures from the Mets and other teams to interview Stearns.  There seems to be plenty of leverage on Stearns’ part to either work out another extension with the Brewers, or perhaps wait out the remainder of his deal in Milwaukee and then test the market for a new challenge.

Cubs: 2022 is the last guaranteed year of David Ross’ contract, though the Cubs have a club option for 2023.  It has been a tumultuous two years to begin Ross’ managerial career, between the pandemic, a first-place NL Central finish in 2020, and then a 91-loss season in 2021 after the Cubs went all-in on a rebuild.  However, the acquisitions of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley are signs that Chicago is looking to compete next season, leaving Ross with the twin challenges of mentoring young talent and also winning some ballgames.  Given the long relationship between Ross and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, it doesn’t seem like Ross’ job is in much jeopardy, and an extension (even if just an early call on that 2023 option) wouldn’t be a shock.

Diamondbacks: Manager Torey Lovullo spent much of the 2021 season as a lame duck before signing an extension in September that covers 2022 and also provides the D’Backs with a club option for 2023.  Given how poorly the Diamondbacks have played over the last two seasons, this new deal gives the Snakes some flexibility to move on from Lovullo next fall, but obviously Lovullo wasn’t considered the reason for the team’s struggles.  There is also some uncertainty about Mike Hazen’s contract status, as the GM signed new multi-year contract of undisclosed length back in 2019, extending Hazen beyond 2020 (the endpoint of his original deal).  If Hazen’s contract is only guaranteed through 2022 and Arizona has another rough season next year, ownership might opt to replace both Hazen and Lovullo and start fresh.

Dodgers: 2022 is Dave Roberts’ last year under contract, as his current deal doesn’t contain any team options.  While Roberts’ postseason decision-making has sometimes been called into question by Los Angeles fans, he hardly bears sole responsibility, and it is also hard to argue with Roberts’ track record — a 542-329 record and a World Series title since taking the managerial job in November 2015.  There hasn’t been any indication that the Dodgers are dissatisfied with Roberts’ work, so another extension could be in the pipeline.

Guardians: While Terry Francona isn’t under contract beyond 2022, but team owner Paul Dolan has said that “I feel like we’re now in a situation where he’s going to be here until he decides not to manage.”  This puts the ball squarely in Francona’s court, as the veteran manager plans to return at least through next season after health problems limited his participation in both 2020 and 2021.  Also, the contract details of president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti aren’t publicly known, but there hasn’t been any indication that Dolan is looking move on from the longtime executive.

Marlins: Don Mattingly’s 2022 club option was picked up over the summer, putting “Donnie Baseball” in line for what will be his seventh season managing the Fish.  Much of that time has been spent overseeing a rebuilding team, but with Miami reaching the postseason in 2020 and now making some aggressive offseason moves, Mattingly and his staff will be facing some higher expectations.  The Marlins could opt to let at least some of the season play out before deciding on Mattingly’s future, or if they’re confident that Mattingly is the one to lead the Fish into an era of winning baseball, they could have some talks about a longer-term deal this spring.

Orioles: Executive VP/general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde are each entering their fourth season with the team.  Hyde signed an extension last year that covers at least the 2022 season, while the initial length of Elias’ contract wasn’t known.  Even if 2022 is the last season of Elias’ deal, it doesn’t seem like Orioles ownership would cut him loose before the results of the club’s extensive rebuild have been at all realized.  The same could be said for Hyde, though it wouldn’t be the first time a rebuilding team has employed one manager to shepherd it through the tough years, and then hired another skipper when the club began to turn the corner towards contention.

Phillies: Joe Girardi is now entering the last guaranteed season of his initial three-year contract, and the Phillies hold a club option on the former World Series-winning manager for 2023.  An 82-80 record represented Philadelphia’s first winning season since 2011, though it was still an underwhelming result for a team heavy in high-priced stars.  Girardi himself hasn’t received much too much blame (at least by Philadelphia standards) for the Phils’ lack of success, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is on record as saying that Girardi “did a good job for us” last year.  There are some parallels to Maddon’s situation, as both he and Girardi are veteran skippers under win-now pressure for big-market teams, except Girardi doesn’t have the longstanding ties to Phillies ownership as Maddon does in Anaheim.  With the club option in mind, the Phils might see what 2022 entails before deciding on an extension for Girardi.

Pirates: This is a speculative entry, since the terms of Derek Shelton’s deal weren’t released when he was hired as Pittsburgh’s manager in November 2019.  If Shelton was given a three-year contract (a pretty standard pact for a first-time manager), he’d now be entering his last guaranteed year.  Since the Pirates are still rebuilding, Shelton isn’t under much pressure to start winning games immediately, so it doesn’t seem at this point like his job is in any danger.

Rangers: Another speculative case, as president of baseball operations Jon Daniels signed a contract extension back in June 2018, lengthening a deal that was set to expire at the end of the 2018 campaign.  If that extension happened to be a four-year pact, then, Daniels has only one year remaining.  While Daniels has spent much of his most recent contract rebuilding the roster, this winter’s massive spending splurge is a clear sign that Texas is ready to start winning.  One would guess that ownership wouldn’t sign off on hundreds of millions in player contracts if they had any misgivings about keeping Daniels around, so another extension wouldn’t be a surprise.  Daniels is quietly one of baseball’s longest-tenured front office bosses, as he has been running the Rangers’ baseball ops department since October 2005, when he was only 28 years old.

Rockies: Bud Black is entering his sixth and what might be his final year as Rockies manager, as his three-year contract expires at season’s end.  New GM Bill Schmidt has indicated that the team might explore a new deal with Black, and since Schmidt is a longtime member of Colorado’s front office, the Rockies might not have the disconnect that sometimes exists between an incumbent skipper and a new front office boss who wants their own hire running the dugout.  Even though owner Dick Monfort is known for his loyalty to familiar employees, managers don’t have quite as much slack — both Walt Weiss and Jim Tracy (Black’s predecessors) resigned from the Rockies’ managerial post after four seasons apiece.

Royals: Like Shelton, Mike Matheny was also hired following the 2019 season, so this would be the final guaranteed year of Matheny’s deal if he signed a three-year term.  That said, Matheny might have gotten a longer deal, owing to his past experience as manager of the Cardinals, and due to his standing as something of a manager-in-waiting in Kansas City with Ned Yost on the verge of retirement.  The Royals were aggressive last winter but managed only a 74-88 record in 2021, and if the team again doesn’t take a step forward, there could be some whispers about whether or not Matheny is the right choice for the manager’s job.  Then again, president of baseball operations Dayton Moore has traditionally been big on institutional loyalty, so Matheny’s job isn’t necessarily on the line if the Royals don’t at least crack the .500 mark.

Twins: Manager Rocco Baldelli received a four-year contract with multiple club options when he was hired following the 2018 season, so Baldelli is now entering his final guaranteed year.  The existence of those club options puts Baldelli under team control through at least 2024, yet while Baldelli isn’t a true lame duck, he does face some pressure in getting the Twins on track following a very disappointing season.  If the Twins underachieve again, Baldelli might be on the hot seat, though he did lead Minnesota to the postseason in his first two years as skipper.

White Sox: Another team that doesn’t publicize management contracts, both executive VP Kenny Williams and GM Rick Hahn signed extensions in 2017 of unspecified length.  Since that time, the duo has overseen a rebuild and a payroll increase that has thus far resulted in playoff appearances in both 2020 and 2021, though the White Sox have yet to win a series.  Though owner Jerry Reinsdorf is definitely aiming to capture another championship, it seems like it would take a major collapse for him to think about replacing Williams or Hahn, who have each been with the franchise for decades.  Depending on their contractual status, Williams and Hahn could even be in line for extensions, if such deals haven’t already quieted been inked.

Yankees: As any Bronx fan can tell you, the Yankees have gone 12 seasons without as much as an AL pennant, though the club has reached the playoffs nine times in that span and always posted winning records.  Despite this relative title drought by Yankees standards, owner Hal Steinbrenner appears satisfied with the work done by longtime GM Brian Cashman, and there doesn’t appear to be much chance of a front office change.  It may be quite a while before we hear whether or not Cashman is officially staying, as several of his contracts have been settled either around the end of the season, or sometimes well into the offseason.  Cashman’s last deal (a five-year, $25MM contract covering the 2018-22 campaigns) wasn’t fully put into place until December 2017.

Ballparking A Corbin Burnes Extension

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Coming off a 2021 season that saw them run away with the NL Central behind a stable of controllable arms that put up high-end numbers for salaries that fell well below market value, the Brewers’ pitching staff is among the great envies of Major League Baseball. While many of their salaries will rise through arbitration in 2022 – Brandon Woodruff and Josh Hader are each slated for hefty raises – no decision facing Brewers GM Matt Arnold will have a greater bearing on the club’s future than his approach to reigning NL Cy Young Award Winner Corbin Burnes.

After pitching last season for a relatively piddly $608K, MLBTR’s Matt Swartz has Burnes slated for an even $4MM salary in 2022, his first year of arbitration eligibility, should he and the Brewers choose to go that route. While it clearly won’t come cheap, Arnold and the Brewers will at least want to kick the tires on a possible extension with their ace. With dollars flying around at an unprecedented rate before the lockout, though, what such an extension might look like remains an open question. Should the Brewers follow the arbitration path for the duration of Burnes’ eligibility, he’d become a free agent following his age-29 season in 2024.

While pinpointing a length or dollar-figure would be pure guesswork, we can safely say that a Burnes extension won’t come cheap. Burnes’ stellar 2021 didn’t come out of nowhere, exactly, but few would have predicted the dominance he displayed, particularly given that he had cracked top-prospect lists only shortly before his 2018 debut and entered 2021 with just 13 lifetime big-league starts. He’d also fallen on his face in a rotation stint to open the 2019 season, allowing 11 homers across three outings, and performed only marginally better out of the bullpen (7.76 ERA in 28 relief appearances, 10.70 in four starts).

Burnes’ huge step forward in 2020 came largely as the result of a plummeting home run rate (from 7.2% in 2019 to a miniscule 0.8% in 2020). In 2021, he nearly maintained the same low home run rate (1.1%) while cutting his walk rate almost in half to the lowest mark in the NL (from 10% in 2020 to 5.2% in 2021), while his home-run rate, K-rate (35.6%), K/BB ratio (6.88), and FIP (1.63) all led the majors among qualified starters. He also won the big-league ERA title with a 2.43 mark in 167 innings.

Given the relative scarcity of pitchers of Burnes’ caliber at this point in their careers, comparisons are scant. The White Sox gave Chris Sale $32MM over five years ahead of the 2013 season, but he was still a year from arbitration and only had one year as a starter—and no Cy Youngs—under his belt at the time. The seven years and $175MM the Nationals gave Stephen Strasburg in May 2016—which also included an opt-out clause he wound up using—came only a few months ahead of Strasburg reaching free agency (albeit with a Tommy John surgery on file). Similarly, Jacob deGrom’s five-year, $137.5MM whopper came just ahead of his final arb-year. (On one hand, deGrom was 31 in 2019, significantly older than Burnes, but is also in a class of his own.)

Perhaps a better comp is Aaron Nola’s four year, $45MM pact (also with a club option) with the Phillies in 2019, which came at the same point in his arbitration cycle, though the comparison is far from perfect. While Nola was at the time a year younger than Burnes is now and had a longer track record as an effective big-league starter, he’d never reached (and hasn’t since) quite the heights Burnes has over the last two seasons. The closest comparison, then, is likely the $50MM over five years the Rays gave to Blake Snell following his dominant 2018 Cy Young season. That backloaded deal, which came a year ahead of Snell’s arbitration eligibility, followed a breakout campaign on the heels of strong but not spectacular performances in the two years prior.

The Brewers will likely be more than willing to give Burnes (and his dominant cutter) quite a bit more in the ways of both years and dollars than the Phillies gave Nola or the Rays gave Snell, perhaps inching him a bit closer to Strasburg and deGrom. They should also have money to spend; the eight-figure salaries of Avisail Garcia (signed with the Marlins) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (traded to the Red Sox) have both come off their books, while Lorenzo Cain’s will do the same after he plays out his $18MM guarantee in 2022. They’ll remain on the hook for $26MM/year to Christian Yelich through 2028, but they otherwise have no salary commitments in 2023 beyond $3.735MM to starter Freddy Peralta and a $2MM buyout to second baseman Kolten Wong.

They will, of course, also want to augment a lineup that lagged well behind the rotation in overall production, but figuring out the plan with their rotation anchor is certain to be their first priority. Something in the neighborhood of a five- or six-year guarantee that pushes the nine-figure mark – perhaps also including performance escalators and/or a high-dollar club option or two – might be enough to satisfy club and player, guaranteeing the Brewers cost certainty and control of their franchise player beyond his arbitration years and Burnes significant financial security.

With the small-market Brewers in the middle of a contention window and Burnes’ rotation-mates Woodruff and Peralta under club control through 2024 and 2026, respectively, Brewers fans can likely count on the same sort of high-end starting pitching that propelled the 2021 club for at least a few more years regardless of Burnes’ contract status. Lefty Eric Lauer and late-bloomer Adrian Houser will likely return to round out the rotation in 2022, each in his first of arb-eligibility, granting the club an enviable expectation of consistency in the rotation. Graduating prospect Aaron Ashby, who pitched to a 4.55 ERA in 31 2/3 innings in 2021, may also push for a spot in rotation, though Craig Counsell may choose to keep him in the bullpen (or stash him in AAA) until his services as a starter are required.

While the small-market Brewers will likely have to dole out a bit more in the way of years and dollars than they’d like to keep their ace around in the long term, it may just be a risk they have to take. If Burnes can stay healthy and duplicate his recent dominance into his early 30s, the club would at minimum have the sort of top-of-the-rotation workhorse that perennial playoff teams rely on to reach the tournament year after year. And if Burnes preserves anything like his form over the last two seasons over the long haul, it would be a risk they’re glad they took.

Brewers Have Had Previous Interest In Luke Voit

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Joel Sherman of the New York Post took a look at the Yankees’ offseason and speculated about various paths they could take once the lockout is completed. One scenario that he contemplates would involve the club acquiring Lorenzo Cain from the Brewers to act as insurance for oft-injured center fielder Aaron Hicks. Sherman then parenthetically remarks that “Milwaukee has had interest in Voit previously,” referring, of course, to first baseman Luke Voit.

It isn’t specified exactly when this interest occurred, but Voit would make for an interesting fit on the Brewers roster currently. After acquiring Rowdy Tellez from the Blue Jays in July, the hulking lefty got most of the playing time at first base for the remainder of the season. With Voit being right-handed, they could make for an interesting platoon pair, but neither player has pronounced splits over their respective careers. Voit has hit .264/.344/.516 against lefties, for a wRC+ of 130. Against righties, he’s hit .268/.362/.508, wRC+ of 134. In 2021, he also had an even wRC+ of 111 against both lefties and righties. Tellez has hit lefties at a rate of .264/.314/.441, wRC+ of 98 for his career. Versus righties, his line is .241/.305/.470, wRC+ of 101.

It’s possible that the Brewers were interested in Voit before acquiring Tellez and that the presence of Rowdy lessens their desire to bring in Voit. However, Voit would be an upgrade over Tellez, as long as he’s healthy. Also, with the designated hitter expected to come to the National League next year, it would be easy enough for the Brewers to have both players in the lineup on a regular basis, especially with the ongoing strikeout issues of  Keston Hiura and recent non-tender of Daniel Vogelbach.

The Brewers have been looking to add some offensive pop this offseason to complement their excellent pitching staff. They’ve already added Hunter Renfroe, but also lost Avisail Garcia and Eduardo Escobar. Voit is certainly capable of adding some slug to any lineup, as he led the majors in homers during the shortened 2020 season. However, injuries limited him to just 68 games in 2021. The Yankees acquired Anthony Rizzo for the stretch run and have since been connected in rumors to other first basemen, such as Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson, perhaps indicating that they would be open to moving on from Voit. He comes with three years of club control and is projected to earn a salary around $5.4MM next year. It will be his second of four arbitration seasons, as a Super Two player.

Brewers Sign Tyler White, Jon Singleton To Minors Deals

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The Brewers announced this morning that they’ve signed first baseman Jon Singleton to a minor league contract. Robert Murray of FanSided, meanwhile, reported (on Twitter) that Milwaukee is also in agreement with first baseman Tyler White. Minor league contracts for players not a 40-man roster at the end of last season are still permissible during the lockout.

White and Singleton are both best-known for their time with the Astros. The former debuted in the majors in 2016, serving as a part-time righty bat to work into the first base/designated hitter mix. After a very strong .276/.354/.533 showing across 237 plate appearances in 2018, White looked on his way to cementing himself as a long-term fixture on the roster. The former 33rd-round pick struggled to a .208/.308/.304 mark in 279 trips to the dish between Houston and the Dodgers the following season, though, and he hasn’t made it back to the big leagues since.

In 2020, White signed on with the SK Wyverns of the Korea Baseball Organization. He only made nine appearances in South Korea, and he returned to the U.S. this past season. White signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays last winter. Despite a .292/.424/.476 showing with the Jays’ top affiliate in Buffalo, he didn’t get a big league shot with Toronto. White, owner of an impressive .306/.406/.523 line across five seasons at Triple-A, will try to play his way back into the big leagues with the Brew Crew.

Singleton has only appeared in two major league seasons, but he may be the more well-known of the Brewers’ two new first basemen. The left-handed hitter appeared among Baseball America’s top 100 overall prospects every season from 2011-14. In June 2014, Houston signed Singleton to a $10MM contract extension before he made his major league debut, a precursor to similar pacts for players like Scott Kingery, Evan White, Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert.

The Singleton deal didn’t pan out as the Astros had hoped, as he hit just .171/.290/.331 across 420 MLB plate appearances from 2014-15. He spent the next two seasons in the high minors, and Houston released Singleton in May 2018, not long after he was suspended for the third time in his career after testing positive for a drug of abuse. (Singleton had been open in the past about his struggle with marijuana addiction).

Singleton hasn’t played in affiliated ball since his release from the Astros, but he did return to professional baseball this year. Now 30 years old, he suited up with the Diablos Rojos del México, mashing at a .321/.503/.693 clip over 189 plate appearances. That’s a small sample in an incredibly hitter-friendly environment, but it was eye-opening enough to earn him another chance in the affiliated ranks.

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