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Brewers, Giants Have Discussed Will Smith Trade

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The Brewers and Giants have been in talks about a potential trade that would send lefty Will Smith from San Francisco back to Milwaukee, reports Robert Murray of The Athletic (subscription required). The Giants are particularly interested in second base prospect Mauricio Dubon, per Murray, though he specifies that no deal is close between the two clubs.

It’s not clear that Milwaukee would have any actual interest in dealing Dubon, particularly for a rental. As a player who’s already made his MLB debut after enjoying success in both Double-A and Triple-A, Dubon would be a costly price to pay in exchange for a half-season of a player — even an elite reliever. Dubon is widely considered to be among the Brewers’ five best prospects and boasts a career .300/.335/.479 batting line in 762 plate appearances at Triple-A. That’s not to say such a swap is out of the realm of possibility, however, particularly given how steep the demand for Smith will be. To this point, Smith has been linked to the Cardinals, Dodgers, Rays and Twins, among others. Beyond that, the Giants will have multiple relievers available (Sam Dyson, Tony Watson and perhaps Reyes Moronta), which creates myriad trade scenarios.

Smith is not only the top rental reliever on the market, he’s legitimately been one of the best relievers on the planet in 2019 (while earning an affordable $4.25MM). In 37 1/3 innings for the Giants this season, the southpaw has pitched to an excellent 2.17 ERA with 13.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9 and a 45.3 percent ground-ball rate. The 30-year-old Smith has struck out a career-high 39.4 percent of the hitters he’s faced in 2019 while demonstrating his best command of the strike zone since 2013.

The Brewers, meanwhile, have seen one of their greatest weapons in 2018 dwindle in 2019 with the decline of their relief corps. Josh Hader leads the team in saves and is posting historic strikeout numbers for a second straight season (50.3 percent), but he’s already allowed as many home runs (nine) in 45 innings as he did last year in 81 1/3 frames. Corey Knebel had Tommy John surgery and won’t pitch in 2019. Jeremy Jeffress was terrific through mid-June, but he missed a couple of weeks early due to shoulder fatigue and has hit a rough patch (7.15 ERA) over the past month.

Smith is far from the Brewers’ only option as they pursue bullpen trades — as is evident when perusing MLBTR’s list of the market’s top 60 trade candidates — but he’s also a known commodity in Milwaukee. The Brewers traded Smith to the Giants prior to the 2016 non-waiver trade deadline in a deal that netted them righty Phil Bickford and catcher Andrew Susac. Bickford, a former first-round pick, has yet to progress beyond Class-A Advanced. Susac was traded to the Orioles for cash after being designated for assignment in February 2018.

Brewers Select Jay Jackson, Option Mauricio Dubon

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The Brewers have selected the contract of righty Jay Jackson from Triple-A San Antonio and optioned Mauricio Dubon to AAA, the team reports.

Jackson, 31, appeared poised for a middle-inning role after a dominant 2015 season for San Diego’s AAA-affiliate, but opted instead to pitch in Japan. He excelled there, too, posting back-to-back seasons of sub 2.03 ERAs for the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Central League.

In 35 2/3 innings for San Antonio this year, Jackson’s offered up a commanding 1.01 ERA/1.66 FIP on the back of unassailable peripherals marks: a 12.62 K/9 against just 2.02 BB/9, and not a single homer allowed in a league that’s seen its homer rate jump by as astounding 50.5% this season. The righty should insert himself into a high-leverage role straight away for a team that’s been surprisingly short on reliable late-inning options in ’19. Josh Hader has again been dominant, if homer-prone, but the rest of the club’s complement of ’pen arms – aside from perhaps Jeremy Jeffress – have been mediocre-to-shaky thus far in the campaign.

Dubon, acquired with Travis Shaw in the lopsided deal that sent reliever Tyler Thornburg to Boston, missed much of last season with a torn ACL. He’s rebounded nicely in ’19, though a .307/.343/.491 slash is good for only a 100 wRC+ in the unhinged offensive environment of the PCL.

Brewers Outright Deolis Guerra To Triple-A

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  • Brewers right-hander Deolis Guerra cleared waivers and was assigned outright to Triple-A San Antonio, per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (Twitter link). The 30-year-old Guerra made just one appearance with the Brewers after having his contract selected, wherein he was hammered for four runs in two-thirds of an inning. Ugly as that outing was, Guerra has been excellent in an extraordinarily hitter-friendly Triple-A environment in 2019: 2.61 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.09 HR/9 in 41 1/3 innings of relief. It seems the well-traveled Guerra will remain in the organization as a depth piece; he had the right to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, but there’s no indication he plans to do so.

Brewers Sign Shelby Miller To Minors Deal

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The Brewers have signed right-hander Shelby Miller to a minor league contract, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links).

After being released by the Rangers last week, Miller will now return to the National League as he tries to once again revive his career.  Miller posted an 8.59 ERA over 44 innings for Texas, recording almost as many walks (29) as strikeouts (30), and eventually losing his rotation job due to his inability to his ongoing struggles.

The 44 innings represents the most Miller has pitched in the last two seasons, as Tommy John surgery and a separate set of elbow problems limited the right-hander to just 38 innings total in 2017-18.  Before those two injury-ravaged seasons and his poor 2016 debut year with the Diamondbacks, Miller was considered one of the more promising young arms in baseball, coming off three impressive years with the Braves and Cardinals from 2013-15.

Miller is still just 28 years old and still averages close to 95mph on his fastball, making him a risk worth taking for the Brewers on a flier of a minor league deal.  Milwaukee will owe Miller only the prorated minimum salary if he reaches the club’s MLB roster, as the Rangers are on the hook for the remainder of the one-year contract he signed last winter ($2MM in guaranteed salary, and $400K in achieved incentives).

Noah Syndergaard Rumors: Brewers, Astros

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A trade involving Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard doesn’t look imminent – it may not even be likely – but he is garnering interest from teams in need of starting pitching, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. Although the Mets are not soliciting offers for Syndergaard, the Brewers are “monitoring” him and teammate Zack Wheeler (previously reported), according to Morosi. Meanwhile, Syndergaard has “intrigued” some members of the Astros organzation.

The Mets are 40-50 and seemingly on track to deal veterans by the July 31 trade deadline, yet this may not be the ideal time to sell Syndergaard. While he produced dominant results when healthy from 2015-18, Syndergaard hasn’t been nearly as great this season. So far in 2019, the 26-year-old has registered a career-worst ERA (4.68), FIP (3.98), xFIP (4.22), strikeout rate (8.6 K/9) and swinging-strike percentage (11.9) over 105 2/3 innings.

Syndergaard, to his credit, certainly hasn’t posted bad numbers this season; he also continues to fire heat in the 98 mph range. Beyond that, Syndergaard has his pre-2019 track record working in his favor – not to mention a team-friendly contract that would likely help lead to major interest from playoff hopefuls and non-contenders alike. Syndergaard is on a $6MM salary this year and comes with another two seasons of arbitration control.

The Mets entertained trading Syndergaard last winter, but rookie general manager Brodie Van Wagenen – the hurler’s ex-agent – kept him in hopes of contending this year. The offseason moves Van Wagenen did make haven’t panned out to this point, though, which has put some extra pressure on him to “win” a potential Syndergaard trade, Morosi hears. Regardless, it would take a sizable return – likely a package including a major league-ready starter, per Morosi – for the struggling club to say goodbye to Thor this month.

Yasmani Grandal Reflects On Nearly Joining Mets

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Catcher Yasmani Grandal signed with the Brewers in free agency last offseason on a far shorter and cheaper contract than he was expected to secure at the beginning of the winter. The Brewers landed the ex-Padre and Dodger for a one-year, $18.25MM guarantee, but only after Grandal rejected a four-year, $60MM offer from the Mets.

Now set to play in his second All-Star Game, Grandal reflected on his Mets talks Tuesday, telling Ken Davidoff of the New York Post: “I did think [signing with the Mets] was going to happen. We had a really good conversation, Brodie [Van Wagenen] and I. We met. I think the meeting went great. Both sides were on the same page. We just couldn’t come to terms.”

Unable to lock up Grandal, the Mets pivoted to the second-ranked catcher on the market, Wilson Ramos, whom they reeled in for two years and $19MM. The Ramos signing, like most of the Mets’ other high-profile offseason moves, has blown up in their faces thus far. The 31-year-old has continued to log above-average offensive production for his position, but his defense has lagged behind. Ramos has ceded playing time to backup Tomas Nido of late because of his behind-the-plate decline, leading to talk (even from Ramos himself) that the Mets could trade their more expensive backstop either before the July 31 deadline or in the offseason.

With the Ramos signing failing to deliver, the Mets may find themselves back in the market for a starting catcher next winter. Grandal should be available again then, as it seems unlikely he’ll exercise his half of a $16MM mutual option in the wake of yet another strong season as an all-around catcher. Grandal came with a qualifying offer attached last winter, but that won’t be the case if he reaches free agency again in a few months. The fact that the soon-to-be 31-year-old Grandal won’t have draft compensation hanging over his head will only make him more appealing to catcher-needy teams, possibly including the Mets.

Regarding an agreement possibly coming together next winter with the Mets, Grandal said: “You never know, you have another offseason in which it could happen. Everything happens for a reason. I believe in that.”

Poll: Disappointing National League Teams

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It wouldn’t have been far-fetched at the beginning of the season to expect any of the Brewers, Cubs, Rockies, Cardinals, Phillies or Mets to end up as part of this year’s National League playoff field. Three of those clubs – Milwaukee, Chicago and Colorado – earned postseason trips a year ago and continued to boast capable rosters coming into 2019. St. Louis won 88 games in 2018 and then made a couple aggressive offseason moves in an effort to get over the hump. Philadelphia and New York were sub-.500 teams last season, though the NL East rivals were among the majors’ busiest franchises over the winter.

With the regular season having reached its brief summer recess, it’s fair to say all of the above clubs have disappointed to varying degrees so far. The Cubs (47-43) and Brewers (47-44) do hold playoff spots at the moment, while the Redbirds (44-44) are just two back of those teams in the NL Central. However, they’ve each contributed to the general mediocrity of their division.

Cubs president Theo Epstein just voiced disgust over his team’s weeks-long slump. Their closest competitors, the Brewers,  have gotten another otherworldly season from reigning NL MVP outfielder Christian Yelich. A thumb injury has helped lead to sizable steps back for 2018 outfield complement Lorenzo Cain, though, while first baseman Jesus Aguilar has a mere eight home runs after slugging 35 a season ago. Meanwhile, the Brew Crew’s pitching staff – like the Cubs’ and the Cardinals’ – has underwhelmed throughout the season. The Cards’ offense has also sputtered, in part because headlining offseason pickup and longtime superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt hasn’t resembled the player he was as a Diamondback.

The Rockies (44-45) reached the playoffs last year thanks largely to their starting pitching – something which has seldom been true about the team in its history. This season, though, reigning NL Cy Young candidate Kyle Freeland’s output has been so dreadful that he has spent the past month-plus trying to regain form in the minors. Aside from German Marquez and Jon Gray, nobody else in the Rockies’ starting staff has stepped up to grab a stranglehold of a spot.

Shifting to the NL East, the Phillies are in wild-card position at 47-43, but a .522 winning percentage and a plus-2 run differential may not have been what they had in mind after an action-packed offseason. A record-setting contract for Bryce Harper was the Phillies’ largest strike, but they also grabbed J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura and David Robertson in other noteworthy transactions. However, at least offensively, Harper, Realmuto and Segura haven’t matched their 2018 production. McCutchen was enjoying another quality season before suffering a season-ending torn ACL a month ago, meanwhile, and Robertson got off to a terrible start in the year’s first couple weeks. The long-effective reliever has been on the injured list since mid-April with a flexor strain. Even with a healthy McCutchen and Robertson, the Phillies would still be riddled with problems in their pitching staff – including the rapidly declining Jake Arrieta, whose season may be in jeopardy because of a bone spur in his elbow.

The Mets are rife with concerns on and off the field, with recent behind-the-scenes drama involving GM Brodie Van Wagenen and manager Mickey Callaway the source of the franchise’s latest unwanted attention. Van Wagenen’s audacious offseason signings and trades were supposed to help the Mets snap a two-year playoff drought this season. Instead, the team’s an abysmal 40-50 through 90 games and on track to sell at the July 31 trade deadline. Trading for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz hasn’t worked out at all, while splashy free-agent additions Jeurys Familia, Jed Lowrie (injured all season and possibly out for the year), Wilson Ramos (a potential trade candidate just a few months into a two-year contract) and Justin Wilson have also failed to meet expectations.

In a league where only the Dodgers and Braves have truly stood out so far, all of these clubs still have at least some chance to earn playoff spots this season. They’re each no worse than seven back of postseason position at the All-Star break. Considering your preseason expectations, though, who’s the biggest disappointment to date?

(Poll link for app users)

Latest On Market For Madison Bumgarner

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We’ll continue our evening trip around the summer starting pitching market in San Francisco, where top rental rotation piece Madison Bumgarner resides. Earlier today, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) updated the market for the burly southpaw, cataloging a variety of suitors.

The Astros, Braves, and Brewers are newly added entrants to the mix, joining the already reported Twins and Yankees. We’ve certainly seen many or all of these teams cited as possibilities — among others, as MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored a month back — but this is the clearest indication yet of the kind of competition that could be developing.

All that said, there are limits to Bumgarner’s appeal, as Rosenthal explores. We’ve hashed out many of the pluses and minuses of late; suffice to say that there are good reasons to think the long-time star still has some gas in the tank, but no real reason to believe he’s the stud he once was.

Beyond that, there are also some clear alternatives floating around who’ll also draw attention from contenders. On the rental side, the Mets’ Zack Wheeler (latest rumors) has emerged as a younger, lower-salaried, and arguably higher-upside possibility. Teams that prefer future control could look to Marcus Stroman (latest rumors), Matt Boyd (latest rumors), and perhaps even Trevor Bauer (latest rumors).

Bumgarner’s no-trade rights could certainly play into the equation here, as he’ll have the ability to block deals to most of the interested teams. As Rosenthal originally reported a few months back, the savvy veteran put his eight-team list to full use by naming a host of clear contenders (Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Yankees, Phillies, Cardinals).

As Rosenthal rightly notes today, there’s also not much reason to think that MadBum would decline to facilitate a move. Beyond the obvious appeal of another shot at postseason glory after a few seasons away, the 29-year-old stands to shed the qualifying offer entering free agency.

The qualifying offer issue may not seem like a major factor for a player of Bumgarner’s stature, but the recent experience of Dallas Keuchel shows it’s still of real importance. Though he placed fourth on the latest free-agent power ranking from MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, just edging Wheeler, Bumgarner still faces plenty of variability in his ultimate earning power.

Though Bumgarner left his last start with an elbow contusion, it seems he escaped a worrying injury. There’ll be plenty of time still in the run-up to the deadline for Bumgarner to show off his form to interested clubs, including those listed above.

Gio Gonzalez Nearing Rehab Assignment

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Brewers left-hander Gio Gonzalez, out since June 1 with a dead arm, is finally progressing toward a return. He’ll start a rehab assignment at the High-A level on Wednesday, Sophia Minnaert of Fox Sports Wisconsin reports.

Gonzalez threw a bullpen session of 40-plus pitches Saturday without incident – a notable step for someone who suffered a setback during a bullpen on June 26. The hope prior to then was that Gonzalez would come back before the All-Star break. It’s now unclear how long he’ll take to ramp up before rejoining the Brewers, but his return will be a timely one with the club fighting for a playoff spot and in need of starting help.

Despite the holes in their pitching staff, the reigning National League Central champion Brewers are 47-43, in possession of a wild-card spot and a half-game back of the Cubs in a wide-open division. The Brewers are in playoff position thanks in part to Gonzalez, who looked like a quality bargain pickup before going on the IL.

After signing a $2MM deal with the Brewers in late April, the former Athletic and National began the season with a 3.19 ERA/3.24 FIP, 7.55 K/9 against 2.61 BB/9, and a 45.5 percent groundball rate over 31 innings and six starts. There’s a case Gonzalez has been the Brewers’ second- or third-best starter this season on a per-inning basis, trailing the emergent Brandon Woodruff and perhaps Zach Davies.

Brewers Call Up Mauricio Dubon

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SUNDAY: Dubon’s officially up. Amazingly, Arcia dodged a significant injury and should be fine to return after the All-Star break, per Rosiak. Because Arcia’s not going on the IL, the Brewers optioned righty Burch Smith to make room for Dubon.

SATURDAY: The Brewers are set to call up shortstop prospect Mauricio Dubon, Robert Murray of The Athletic tweets. Dubon, who’s already on the Brewers’ 40-man roster, will make his major league debut.

The Dubon call-up comes on the heels of a potentially serious injury for shortstop Orlando Arcia. The 24-year-old had to be carted off the field during the Brewers’ loss to the Pirates on Saturday after a collision with second baseman Keston Hiura. Arcia “was holding his left arm and shoulder” as he exited the field, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes.

Dubon, also 24, suffered a major injury of his own – a torn left ACL – just a year ago. The righty-swinging Dubon has come back this season to slash .306/.343/.467 (99 wRC+) with 14 home runs and eight stolen bases in 357 plate appearances with the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate in San Antonio.

Dubon originally joined the Brewers in a December 2016 trade with the Red Sox that centered on reliever Tyler Thornburg and third baseman Travis Shaw. Although Dubon was only a 26th-round pick in 2013, he evolved into one of Boston’s top prospects before it dealt him. He’s among the Brewers’ best farmhands nowadays. MLB.com and FanGraphs each place Dubon fifth in Milwaukee’s system. He could become “a low-end” starting shortstop in the majors, Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs write.

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