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Jon Lester Announces Retirement

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After a 16-year major league career, Jon Lester tells Jesse Rogers of ESPN he’s made the decision to retire. “It’s kind of run its course,” the 38-year-old said of his career. “It’s getting harder for me physically. The little things that come up throughout the year turned into bigger things that hinder your performance. I’d like to think I’m a halfway decent self-evaluator. I don’t want someone else telling me I can’t do this anymore. I want to be able to hand my jersey over and say, ’thank you, it’s been fun.’ That’s probably the biggest deciding factor.”

Jon Lester | Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

A second-round pick of the Red Sox out of a Washington high school in 2002, Lester entered pro ball as one of the more promising pitching prospects in the Boston system. Within a few years, the left-hander was ranked among the top farmhands in baseball and he made his big league debut at age 22 in June 2006. Lester was faced with incredible adversity just a few months into that run. He was diagnosed with anaplastic large cell lymphoma late in his rookie season, cutting that year short and requiring chemotherapy treatments.

Lester beat the disease and made an inspiring return to the mound in 2007. He made 12 regular season appearances that year, then pitched in three playoff games during the Red Sox’s run to a championship. Making his first career postseason start in Game 4 of the World Series against the Rockies, Lester tossed 5 2/3 innings of scoreless ball. He wound up getting the win in what proved to be the title-clinching game, as the Sox wrapped up a sweep.

Entering 2008, Lester was cemented as a key rotation member on Terry Francona’s staff. Incredibly durable, he’d make at least 31 starts over each of his next six seasons in Boston. While Lester only had two seasons (2009-10) with excellent strikeout numbers, he consistently demonstrated strong control and proved one of the game’s hardest pitchers to square up. A pillar of high-end consistency, Lester posted an ERA between 3.21 and 3.75 in five of six years from 2008-13.

Lester’s run in Boston was littered with accomplishments. He tossed a no-hitter in May 2008, earned back-to-back All-Star selections in 2010-11 and finished fourth in AL Cy Young award balloting during a 2010 season in which he tossed 208 innings of 3.25 ERA ball. Perhaps of most importance, Lester was excellent during the Red Sox’s surprising run to another championship in 2013. He pitched to a 1.55 ERA over 34 2/3 postseason innings that year, including 15 1/3 frames of one-run ball to earn two wins as part of a World Series triumph over the Cardinals.

Ticketed for free agency after the 2014 season, Lester began the year stellar as ever. He tossed 143 innings with a 2.52 ERA for the Red Sox, earning his third career All-Star nod in the process. Yet with free agency looming and the Red Sox on their way to a last place finish, they traded him to the A’s at the deadline. Lester continued to excel over his final few months in Oakland, eventually getting the nod in the AL Wild Card game. The A’s were knocked off by the Royals in one of the more thrilling back-and-forth contests in recent memory, and Lester hit the open market for the first time shortly thereafter.

Ranked by MLBTR as that offseason’s #2 free agent, Lester commanded a six-year, $155MM deal with a Cubs team looking to emerge from a massive rebuild. That’ll go down as one of the best free agent investments in franchise history, as he picked up right where he’d left off upon switching to the National League.

Lester worked 205 innings of 3.34 ERA ball his first season, helping Chicago to the NLCS. The following year, he compiled a 2.44 mark across 202 2/3 frames. He finished second in NL Cy Young voting, earned a fourth All-Star nod, and was arguably the top pitcher on a 103-win team. As he had so often in Boston, Lester shined in the playoffs yet again. He was tabbed that year’s NLCS MVP after tossing 13 innings of two-run ball to knock off the Dodgers. Lester made three outings with a 3.68 ERA during the World Series, in which the Cubs erased a 3-1 deficit against the Indians to end the franchise’s legendary 108-year title drought.

The third World Series title of Lester’s career proved to be his final one, as the Cubs never had quite the same level of success from that point forward. That wasn’t much fault of the veteran southpaw’s, though, as he remained effective for the next few seasons. He paced the NL with 18 wins in 2018, earning another All-Star nod in the process. As he entered his late-30s, Lester’s production finally began to tail off, although he remained remarkably durable and took the ball every fifth day through the expiration of his contract after 2020.

Last winter, Lester hooked on with the Nationals on a one-year, $5MM deal. He made 16 starts with Washington before being flipped to the Cardinals at the trade deadline. Despite lackluster strikeout and walk numbers, he managed a decent 4.36 ERA over 12 starts in St. Louis, proving to be a much-needed stabilizing force for a Cardinals rotation that had been hit hard by injuries. St. Louis made a miraculous September run to a playoff spot, but they fell to the Dodgers in the Wild Card game. Lester didn’t appear in what’ll go down as the final contest of his career.

One of the league’s most reliable hurlers for more than a decade, Lester leaves a fantastic legacy in the game. He tossed 2,740 innings over parts of 16 MLB seasons. He pitched to a 3.66 ERA, won exactly 200 games and struck out just under 2,500 batters. The five-time All-Star was a key contributor to three World Series teams with two separate franchises, and he’ll be remembered by both Red Sox’s and Cubs’ fans as one of the more impactful players in each organization’s recent histories. Lester’s career was valued at between 44 and 46 wins above replacement by FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, before accounting for an incredible 2.51 ERA over 154 playoff innings. According to B-Ref, he earned just over $188MM.

Lester will likely garner some Hall of Fame support five years from now. Whether or not he’s ultimately enshrined in Cooperstown, there’s no question he had a long run of excellence and reliability. MLBTR congratulates Lester on his fantastic career and wishes him all the best in his post-playing days.

Jim Corsi Passes Away

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Former major league reliever Jim Corsi passed away earlier this week at the age of 60. As he recently detailed in an interview with Steve Burton of WBZ-TV, Corsi had been battling liver and colon cancer.

As part of that conversation, a visibly emotional Corsi said he “made a mistake” not getting a colonoscopy earlier in life. He encouraged others to be diligent in monitoring their health. “If you’re out there, don’t wait. Don’t be stupid,” Corsi told viewers. “I was a professional athlete. I thought I was invincible, strong. You’re not; cancer is not prejudiced to anyone. … If you get (a colonoscopy) soon enough, you’ll be alright.”

Corsi, a right-handed pitcher, appeared in the majors in ten seasons between 1988-99. He broke in with an A’s team that won three consecutive pennants in the late 1980’s, tossing 38 1/3 innings of 1.88 ERA ball for Oakland’s World Series-winning 1989 team. Corsi bounced around the league over the next decade, suiting up with the Astros, Marlins, his hometown Red Sox and Orioles. A consistently effective bullpen option, he posted a cumulative 3.25 ERA over 481 1/3 innings.

MLBTR apologizes for the belated nature of this post and sends our condolences to Corsi’s family, friends and loved ones.

Minor League Notes: WooSox, Listach, Tigers

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While the first full week of 2022 remains light on the type of transactional news baseball fans are usually accustomed, there has been no shortage of big news on deals of a different kind. There’s potential for that trend to continue, as Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe reports the Red Sox’ Triple-A affiliate, the Worcester Red Sox, is being eyed as an acquisition target by sports and entertainment company Endeavor. The Beverly Hills-based company is no stranger to minor league acquisitions, having scooped up ten minor league affiliates at the end of last year. Silverman notes that a $50MM bid by Endeavor for the Red Sox affiliate has seemingly already been rejected. That said, ownership groups are permitted to own up to 24 minor league teams at a time, meaning Endeavor has plenty of room to continue its pursuit of the Worcester outfit and add several other affiliates to its portfolio.

Some other minor league notes from around the league:

  • Per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the Phillies have hired former big-league shortstop and 1992 AL Rookie of the Year Pat Listach as the bench coach for their High-A affiliate, the Jersey Shore BlueClaws. Listach played in parts of six seasons with the Brewers and Astros and has been a part of multiple major league coaching staffs, including with the Nationals, Cubs, and Astros, and has held minor league roles with the Cubs, Dodgers, and Mariners. Most recently, he served as the manager of the Mexican League’s Acereros de Monclova, whom he led to the playoffs in 2019 and 2021.
  • On Thursday, the Tigers unveiled their new-look set of minor league coaching staffs. Included among the new faces in Detroit’s ranks are 2016 World Series-winning coach Gary Jones, taking over as Triple-A manager, and former Tigers third baseman Gabe Alvarez, hired as the organization’s new Double-A manager. Chris McCosky of The Detroit News helpfully compiled the full list of Detroit’s development personnel changes here.

Red Sox Have The Flexibility To Pursue An Impact Move Coming Out Of The Lockout

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The Red Sox made a somewhat surprising run to the ALCS in 2021. They’ve been fairly quiet to this point in the offseason, making a series of low-cost additions on the pitching staff. Yet they could be poised for some more impactful activity once the new collective bargaining agreement is in place.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Chris Sale, LHP: $82MM through 2024 (Sale can opt out of final two years and $55MM after 2022; contract also contains a 2025 vesting option based on Cy Young voting)
  • Xander Bogaerts, SS: $80MM through 2025 (Bogaerts can opt out of final three years and $60MM after 2022; contract also contains a 2026 vesting option based on plate appearances)
  • J.D. Martinez, DH: $19.375MM through 2022
  • Matt Barnes, RHP: $18.75MM through 2023 (including buyout of $8MM club option for 2024)
  • Jackie Bradley Jr., CF: $17.5MM through 2022 (including buyout of $12MM mutual option for 2023)
  • Nathan Eovaldi, RHP: $17MM through 2022
  • James Paxton, LHP: $10MM through 2023 (deal contains club option for 2023-24; Paxton can exercise 2023 player option if club declines their option)
  • Enrique Hernández, 2B: $8MM through 2022
  • Christian Vázquez, C: $7MM through 2022
  • Michael Wacha, RHP: $7MM through 2022
  • Rich Hill, LHP: $5MM through 2022
  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RHP: $2.2MM through 2022 (including buyout of $3MM club option for 2023)
  • Franchy Cordero, CF: $825K through 2022

Owe $16MM to Dodgers as part of David Price trade

Total 2022 commitments: $155MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

After coming up a couple wins shy of a pennant, the Red Sox opened the winter facing the departure of a few important members of last year’s club. Most notable among them: longtime rotation cog Eduardo Rodríguez and midseason trade pick-up Kyle Schwarber.

Boston expressed interest in retaining both players, but Rodríguez departed fairly quickly. The southpaw signed a five-year deal with the Tigers in the first marquee free agent move of the offseason, leaving the Sox to turn elsewhere for starting pitching. Boston was loosely tied to top-of-the-market options like Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman, and they reportedly had strong interest in Steven Matz. Yet in all three cases — as with Rodríguez — those hurlers ended up landing multi-year deals elsewhere.

With no long-term rotation deals finalized, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his front office pivoted to a bulk approach to the pitching staff. Rather than concentrating their resources into a mid-rotation innings eater, the Sox have spread money around on a few lower-cost arms.

They began by inking Michael Wacha to a $7MM guarantee, making them the latest team to roll the dice on a hopeful bounceback from the righty. As the lockout neared, Boston reunited with veteran Rich Hill, who’s remarkably coming off his highest innings total since 2007. The Massachusetts native is entering his age-42 campaign, yet he’s continued to produce at an average or better level every season, adding to an incredible late-career renaissance that began in Boston in 2015.

Wacha and Hill are each options for the season-opening starting staff. Boston’s other free agent rotation pickup, James Paxton, is not. He’s still recovering from an April 2021 Tommy John surgery and likely won’t be ready until the middle of the season. Paxton’s a very good pitcher when healthy, though, and for a $10MM guarantee, the Sox picked up a two-year club option that could keep him around through 2024.

The Red Sox’s choice to eschew a huge rotation investment minimizes their long-term financial downside, but it’s not without risk in 2022. There’s plenty of upside among Boston’s in-house rotation options, but it’s a high-variance unit. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Chris Sale returns to his ace-caliber form, but it’s tough to treat that as a given after Sale missed most of the past two years recovering from Tommy John surgery. Nathan Eovaldi was excellent last season and could be a high-end #2 behind Sale, but he’s had ups and downs throughout his career. Nick Pivetta has great raw stuff but inconsistent production.

Boston seems comfortable with that volatility. The free agent rotation market has been mostly picked through to this point. There are still some interesting trade possibilities, but it’d register as a bit of a surprise if Boston lands someone like Sonny Gray or Sean Manaea after signing three free agent starters. That’s particularly true given the presence of Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock, each of whom the club will seemingly consider for the rotation mix.

The latter two hurlers might also find themselves in the bullpen. Whitlock, in particular, was downright excellent in shorter stints as a rookie. While he’d had some success as a starter in the minors and has spoken about his desire to land a rotation role, it’s arguable the Sox should keep him in relief.

The late inning mix is uncertain, largely thanks to the second half struggles of Matt Barnes. Signed to a two-year extension after an All-Star first half, Barnes was awful during the season’s final couple months and was left off the initial playoff roster. As he struggled to find his footing, Whitlock emerged as the top late-game option for manager Alex Cora. Getting Barnes back on track is no doubt a key focus for the Boston coaching staff and front office, but it’s tough to pencil him back into a high-leverage role at the moment.

In addition to Barnes’ downturn, the Sox are facing the free agent departures of a few of their most relied-upon relievers. Garrett Richards and Martín Pérez were both kicked to the bullpen midseason after struggling as starters; their contracts have since been bought out. Adam Ottavino hit free agency, as did midseason pickup Hansel Robles. Those aren’t impact arms, and Boston could look to bring one or more back on affordable deals. But it’s a lot of relief innings to potentially walk out the door, and with a high-risk, high-reward rotation, having a reliable bullpen takes on all the more importance.

Some of the Red Sox’s bullpen work may have already been addressed by their rotation signings. Adding enough starters to have the flexibility to use Whitlock and/or Houck later in games helps, and Wacha might eventually be a bullpen option himself. Yet there’s more work to be done, particularly from the right side. Josh Taylor, Darwinzon Hernández and midseason trade acquisition Austin Davis make for a solid trio of southpaws. The right-handed group — likely anchored by Whitlock, Ryan Brasier, Barnes and Hirokazu Sawamura — looks a bit thinner.

At least one big league addition to the mix seems likely, whether via free agency, trade or the Rule 5 draft. Just minutes before the lockout, Bloom told reporters the club was hoping to “add more pitching,” noting that they’d “yet to address (the bullpen) in meaningful fashion.” Kenley Jansen is the biggest-name free agent closer still available, while players like Ryan Tepera and Collin McHugh could step into set-up roles.

Bloom also indicated the Red Sox would like to add a right-handed bat whenever teams are again permitted to make moves. That came on the heels of the club trading away one of their top righty hitters, outfielder Hunter Renfroe. With the transactions freeze fast approaching, Boston sent Renfroe to Milwaukee to bring back Jackie Bradley Jr. and a pair of fairly well-regarded prospects.

The deal, which essentially amounted to taking on a few million dollars in salary to bolster the farm system while parting with Renfroe, registered as a surprise for a win-now Red Sox club. Bradley’s coming off the worst offensive season of any regular in MLB. The front office is no doubt hoping a return to familiar environs can help to reinvigorate his bat, and Bradley’s still a high-end center fielder. But while the front office may not believe the downgrade from Renfroe to Bradley is as significant as their respective 2021 numbers would indicate, it’s unquestionably a blow to the club’s offense.

Renfroe was fifth on the team in park-adjusted hitting last season (minimum 100 plate appearances). His loss, coupled with Schwarber’s potential free agent departure, could make it hard for the Sox to again run out a top-five run scoring unit in 2022. The deal does, however, make for a sizable defensive improvement, much needed for a team that was by far the league’s worst at turning balls in play into outs.

Strong team defenses were behind a lot of the Rays’ success during Bloom’s tenure in the Tampa Bay front office, and it seems that’ll be a priority for his clubs in Boston. That might diminish the possibility of a Schwarber reunion, since he’s a bat-first corner outfielder who struggled to acclimate to first base down the stretch. There’s room on the roster for a position player pickup of some form, though, and there’s enough flexibility that that addition could come in a number of areas.

That’s largely thanks to the presence of utilityman Enrique Hernández, who had an excellent season after signing a two-year deal last winter. Hernández is a plus defensive option at a number of positions, and his ability to bounce between the infield and outfield serves the front office well. If the Red Sox add an outfielder from outside the organization (or re-sign Schwarber), then they’d have that player, top prospect Jarren Duran, Alex Verdugo and Bradley as options on the grass. Hernández, meanwhile, could slide to second base, where there’s not a whole lot of certainty internally. Alternatively, Boston could acquire a second baseman (the Mets are reportedly likely to make Jeff McNeil available, to name one speculative possibility) and rely on Hernández primarily in center with Bradley pushed into fourth outfield duty.

It’s also worth mentioning the possibility of the Red Sox going all out for one of the two remaining star free agent shortstops. Reports have tied Boston to each of Carlos Correa and Trevor Story this winter, and owner John Henry has shown a willingness to make a significant splash in years past.

Boston certainly doesn’t need a shortstop. Xander Bogaerts is one of the sport’s best players, and the Sox could feel good about him keeping the job entering the season. He can opt out of his current contract at the end of next season, though, and Boston could see a Correa or Story signing as a way to preemptively guard against Bogaerts’ possible departure (as the Dodgers did in acquiring Trea Turner with Corey Seager’s free agency looming).

Signing Correa or Story could push Bogaerts over to second base. While he’s an excellent hitter, Bogaerts hasn’t rated highly as a defender in the eyes of most public advanced metrics. A move to the keystone could help address Boston’s aforementioned team-wide defensive issues, particularly if the Red Sox signed the Gold Glove-winning Correa. (Advanced metrics have been mixed on Story, who has a strong glove and range but has had some issues with throwing errors in recent years).

As things currently stand, Hernández and Christian Arroyo look like the favorites for playing time at second base. Prospect Jeter Downs was added to the 40-man roster and might factor into the mix as well, but he’ll first need to rebound from a dismal Triple-A season. The remaining free agent options at the position aren’t great, leaving a run at Story/Correa or a trade as the best ways for an upgrade.

Boston could also be a dark horse suitor for either of Kris Bryant or Freddie Freeman if they’re content with their current middle infield. Bryant could play primarily in the corner outfield while seeing some action at third base, perhaps allowing Rafael Devers to spend more time across the diamond at first base. Devers is an impact hitter but has had his share of defensive woes as well. Bryant’s among the best right-handed bats still available, and his ability to bounce between the infield and outfield would fit with the Red Sox’s seeming penchant for defensive versatility.

Freeman would be a first base solution only, supplanting Bobby Dalbec on the depth chart there. Top first base prospect Triston Casas isn’t far off major league readiness, but Freeman and Casas could split first base/designated hitter duties in 2023 and beyond. J.D. Martinez forewent an opt-out possibility and will return as the DH next season, but he’ll be a free agent at the end of the year. A run at Freeman would be an outside-the-box move and would probably lead to a Dalbec trade that skews the lineup even more left-handed. But Freeman’s the type of impact player teams should be willing to creatively accommodate, if negotiations between he and the Braves stall out over his reported desire for a sixth guaranteed year.

There are myriad infield possibilities for Bloom and his front office. Adding to the roster in some form makes sense, although it’s also possible the organization prioritizes a long-term deal for one of their current stars. Perhaps Boston could try to supersede Bogaerts’ opt-out by exploring another contract extension with the three-time All-Star. Presumably, the club would love to to work out a deal with Devers, controllable through 2023 via arbitration. Both players are far enough along in their careers that they may prefer to just wait out free agency, but the Red Sox at least figure to be in touch with their respective representatives.

The final area of the roster — the catching corps — already seems in place. The Red Sox exercised a $7MM option on Christian Vázquez to open the winter. After avoiding arbitration with backup Kevin Plawecki, they look to have that duo locked in with Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernández as depth options. The Sox reportedly looked into a Jacob Stallings deal before the Pirates traded him to the Marlins, indicating at least some willingness to make a move behind the plate. Stallings is no longer available, though, and a Vázquez – Plawecki pairing should be capable if unspectacular.

The roster is versatile enough that the opportunities are numerous — if ownership is willing to sign off on another significant expenditure. That the Red Sox have been loosely tied to Correa and Story might suggest there’s money to be spent once the new CBA is in place and the team has more information about the luxury tax thresholds. They haven’t made any huge offseason splashes since Bloom took over the front office, but an impact move or two may be necessary to keep pace in a loaded American League East.

Christian Vazquez Playing In Puerto Rican Winter League

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  • Christian Vazquez has begun playing winter ball in Puerto Rico, as The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that Vazquez feels the extra work will help him bounce back from a disappointing year at the plate.  The Red Sox catcher hit only .258/.308/.352 in 498 plate appearances, and he is now in the final year of his contract after Boston exercised its $7MM club option on Vazquez’s services for 2022.  Obviously, better numbers will help re-establish Vazquez as a reliable starting catcher and line him up for his next deal, whether that contract could come with the Sox or another team.  There has already been an indication that the Red Sox are looking beyond Vazquez, as the team was reportedly close to acquiring Jacob Stallings from the Pirates before Pittsburgh ultimately dealt the catcher to the Marlins.  Speier observes that Vazquez decided to play winter ball of his own volition, as the Red Sox aren’t allowed to be in contact with players due to the lockout, and might well have not permitted the veteran backstop to participate under normal circumstances.

Red Sox Finalize 2022 Coaching Staff

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The Red Sox have finalized manager Alex Cora’s coaching staff for the 2022 season, announcing Monday that they’ve hired Luis Ortiz and Ben Rosenthal as assistant hitting coaches. As previously reported, they’ve also promoted Peter Fatse from assistant hitting coach to hitting coach. Meanwhile, 2021 quality control coach Ramon Vazquez will move to first base coach, while Andy Fox will be the Major League field coordinator after previously serving as assistant field coordinator. Former bullpen catcher Mike Brenly is now a Major League staff assistant as well.

Ortiz joins the Red Sox after spending three years as the Rangers’ hitting coach. He was also the Dodgers’ assistant hitting coach in 2018. It won’t be Ortiz’s first time donning a Red Sox uniform, however; the 51-year-old was an eighth-round pick by the Sox back in 1991 and played 16 big league games with them from 1993-94, splitting that brief time between third base and designated hitter. He also played in 44 big league games with the Rangers over the next two seasons.

In addition to that limited MLB action, Ortiz’s playing career included stops with several other MLB organizations: the Royals, Brewers, D-backs, Cardinals and Expos. He also spent time in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, in the Mexican League and with the independent Winnipeg Goldeyes. A true baseball journeyman, Ortiz has experience as a minor league hitting coach with the Rangers in addition to stints with the player development departments in Cleveland and San Diego.

The other external hire announced today is Rosenthal, a 42-year-old with a broad-reaching level of experiences in the game himself. Rosenthal spent a few seasons as a catcher in the Cardinals’ minor league system and has also played with five different independent organizations. He’s also been a third base coach and hitting coach in the college ranks (Point Loma Nazarene University), and, more recently, spent five seasons as a minor league hitting coach with the Astros organization. Rosenthal has been Houston’s Triple-A hitting coach since 2019 and spent the 2017-18 seasons coaching at two different Class-A stops.

The rest of Boston’s coaching staff will return in their same roles. Will Venable enters his second season as manager Alex Cora’s bench coach, and he’ll also serve as the team’s outfield coach. Dave Bush is back for a third season as the Major League pitching coach. Bullpen coach Kevin Walker is also back for a third season on the Major League staff (and second as bullpen coach). Carlos Febles is returning for his fifth season as third base coach, and Jason Varitek will be back for a second season as Boston’s catching coach and game-planning coordinator.

Which 2022 Draft Picks Have Teams Gained And Lost From Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Of the 14 free agents to receive qualifying offers this winter, nine have already figured out where they will be playing next season, leading to some noteworthy adjustments to the 2022 draft order.  For a refresher on the QO rules, you can check this list of what signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would cost each team, or this list of what teams receive as compensation for losing a QO-rejecting free agent.

Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings.  First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.

For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks.  The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.

  • Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary.  The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+.  Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category.  If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
  • Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds.  The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers.  Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere.  The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town.  The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins).  For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
  • Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round.  Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers.

Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…

  • Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021.  As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
  • Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021.  For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection.  For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft.  Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
  • Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents.  Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
  • Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season.  Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.

Examining Boston’s Catching Corps

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From the outside looking in, it would appear that the Red Sox catching situation is fairly well set. After all, they have $9.25MM committed to their incumbent backstop tandem of Christian Vazquez and Kevin Plawecki, each having been brought back on a guaranteed contract. Boston could have easily gotten out of the commitment to either player through the declination of a team option and non-tender, respectively, but their decision to bring the duo back suggests comfort with continuity.

There may be another move yet to make, however, writes Chris Cotillo of Masslive.com. To his point, Boston isn’t committed to either Vazquez or Plawecki beyond 2021. Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernandez could play themselves into the big league picture, but while both are prospects, neither are blue-chippers. To prove the point, Cotillo reiterated that Boston had made a bid for Jacob Stallings before the Pirates dealt their backstop the Marlins.

Any ground-shifting move would have to come via the trade market, as the free agent crop of catchers has already been picked clean of prospective starters, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explored not long ago. Yan Gomes, Manny Pina, Pedro Severino, and Roberto Perez signed with the Cubs, Braves, Brewers, and Pirates, respectively. Even backups Sandy Leon (Guardians) and Andrew Knapp (Reds) found new homes. That leaves veterans Robinson Chirinos, Kurt Suzuki, and Wilson Ramos as the most decorated options remaining, and those three haven’t been above-average starters behind the plate since 2019.

On the trade market, there are a number of teams with flexible catching rooms that might be willing to shake things up in the right deal. The Cubs’ Willson Contreras sounded none too happy about the Gomes signing, and he’s on the final year of his deal. The Yankees would move Gary Sanchez, but they, like the Red Sox, would need to upgrade if they were going to move him. Anyone with a long-term need at catcher should be in contact with the Blue Jays, though Toronto isn’t likely all that eager to send one of their young backstops (Alejandro Kirk, Gabriel Moreno) to a division rival. Reese McGuire might be a realistic target, if not for Boston, then maybe somewhere else where he could shake loose another starting-level masked man.

Looking elsewhere, Carson Kelly of the Diamondbacks brings the right blend of current ability and future team control, and with the Diamondbacks facing an uphill climb in the NL West, the right deal ought to be able to pry him loose. Still, the return there might smart more than Boston is willing to endure, given the high floor of their current group. The goal for Boston would be to raise the ceiling of their production from the catching spot, and while Kelly certainly qualifies in that regard, the value of the add could send Boston to track a different scent.

Another option could be MJ Melendez of the Royals. Salvador Perez is the past, present, and future of catching in Kansas City, and the Royals might figure to use Melendez’s trade value rather than let him grow into a part-time role.

Sean Murphy is the big fish on the trade market, and the A’s powerful catcher would indeed raise the ceiling in Boston while providing long-term stability. The Gold Glove catcher is under team control through 2025. Murphy, like everyone on Oakland’s roster, is available, but the question will come down to price point and valuation of the prospects in Boston’s system.

There are other options that the Red Sox could explore (Cotillo suggests the Padres as a trade partner, for example), but at the end of the day, it seems most likely they will enter 2022 as they ended 2021, with Vazquez and Plawecki sharing catching duties while Hernandez and Wong await their turn. Combined, Vazquez and Plawecki posted 1.2 rWAR/1.0 fWAR in 2021, and with both catchers entering their age-31 season, there’s not much upside to mine (though catchers do tend to develop late). Still, if Boston likes the way they handle the pitching staff, that might be enough to keep this group in place for next season. Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom and GM Brian O’Halloran are going to continue to explore ways to raise the roof on the potential of their catching production, but an incremental rise in potential output probably doesn’t blow their hats off enough to push them from the incumbent duo.

Red Sox, Astros Interested In Trevor Story

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The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros have expressed interest in free agent shortstop Trevor Story, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman in his latest insider piece for Audacy’s “Big Time Baseball” podcast. Heyman reiterates that he’s also heard Seattle convey interest in the shortstop, as MLBTR covered prior to the lockout last week. As is the case with all player-team connections made in the lockout age, no talks can take place between either party until the lockout is lifted.

Interestingly, Boston was recently cited as a team who reached out to free agent shortstop Carlos Correa’s camp. The path to that connection being anything more than due diligence lies in moving All-Star Xander Bogaerts off the position, an option neither the player nor Boston front office have indicated is on the table. The takeaway from a potential Correa pursuit is in many ways identical to a hypothetical Story one— sign an All-Star shortstop to guard against a Bogaerts departure, improving infield defense in the interim.

Just like Boagaerts, Story has yet to give a firm indication that he’ll be anything but a shortstop heading into the 2022 season. As we saw with Boston’s recent reacquisition of Jackie Bradley Jr. however, the Red Sox clearly aren’t afraid of shuffling players around if it means upgrading their defense. Even on the heels of a modest-for-him campaign, metrics across the board agree that Story would be an improvement with the glove over the incumbent Bogaerts. Of course, with Seattle allegedly showing interest in Story as a third baseman it’s possible Boston can do the same, choosing instead to move Rafael Devers (a subpar defender in his own right) off his position for a presumed upgrade in Story.

The Houston connection, for what it’s worth, would require the least moving parts to bring Story aboard. With Correa out of the picture for now, the Astros have a clear opening at shortstop that Story could fill. As is the case with the Red Sox, a Story signing may push the team past the first luxury tax threshold if he signs somewhere in the vicinity of MLBTR’s predicted six-year, $126MM guarantee. This may be a bridge too far then for Houston, though they’ll likely have plenty of financial wiggle room as soon as 2023 (to say nothing of a CBA that may change entirely).

Financial complications aside, the Astros pursuit of Story may hinge on how ready they are to give top-ranked prospect Jeremy Peña a look. Peña dominated in a 30-game showing at Triple-A this year, swatting 10 home runs to go with a .287/.346/.598 slash line. The home run power is new, and certainly encouraging for Houston brass to consider, but still may not be enough to hand the starting shortstop job to a 24-year-old.

The Astros remain the top dogs in the AL West but should expect the overall competitiveness of their division to increase next year. The drop-off from a 7.2 bWAR Carlos Correa to whatever it is a rookie can produce may be less palatable than simply turning to a steady producer like Story. With Story locked in alongside Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve through 2024, the team would then have the benefit of shopping Peña around for talent beyond the infield, or can simply hold onto him as a very enviable depth piece.

Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox Reportedly Most Aggressive Suitors For Seiya Suzuki

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On November 22, Seiya Suzuki was posted by the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, freeing him up to negotiate with all 30 MLB teams for 30 days. However, it was reported that the recent implementation of a lockout that has led to a transaction freeze has also frozen Suzuki’s 30-day clock. That means that, at the conclusion of the lockout, he will still have around 20 days to work out a deal with an MLB team. At that point, there’s a decent chance of Suzuki winding up in the AL East, according to a report from Sean McAdam of Boston Sports Journal. “One major league source reports the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox have been the most aggressive in pursuit of Suzuki,” McAdam writes.

The fact that Suzuki is garnering interest is not surprising, given his talents. Suzuki came in 20th on MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents and was predicted to get a contract of $55MM over five years. The 27-year-old seems capable of stepping right into the middle of an MLB lineup, while also providing solid right field defence. Over nine seasons in the NPB, he has hit .315/.414/.570, with that production only growing over time.

The Red Sox make for a fairly logical landing spot, especially when considering the recent trade of Hunter Renfroe. Suzuki could potentially fill the right field vacancy left by Renfroe, with Verdugo manning left field and center field covered by some combination of Jarren Duran, Enrique Hernandez or Jackie Bradley Jr., who was part of the return in the Renfroe deal. That trade seemed to be about adding defence by subtracting offence, but the addition of Suzuki could be a way of replacing that lost offence. Kyle Schwarber, who was acquired by the Red Sox last year and would be a logical Renfroe replacement for 2022, is reportedly looking for a three-year, $60MM deal, meaning Suzuki could potentially be about half as costly on an annual basis, if MLBTR’s prediction is correct.

The fit with the Yankees is a bit less smooth, given that they have a number of outfield options already on hand. On paper, the outfield consists of Joey Gallo in left, Aaron Hicks in center and Aaron Judge in right, with designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton available for the occasional appearance on the grass and prospect Estevan Florial on hand as depth. However, they may be reluctant to rely on Hicks as an everyday option, given that he’s now 32 years old and has dealt with injury setbacks in recent years, including only playing 32 games in 2021. Although he did play 54 of the team’s 60 games in the shortened 2020 season, his last significant action over a full season was 137 games in 2018. Judge, Gallo and Suzuki all have seen limited action in center field, making it at least possible for the club to have all three across the outfield at times. However, none of them are really considered an everyday option at the position, making it something of an awkward arrangement over a full season.

Similar to the Yankees, the Blue Jays also seem to have their outfield accounted for on paper, with George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk all pencilled in. However, it was recently reported that the Jays had discussions with the Brewers about a trade centered around Grichuk and Bradley Jr., before the latter was traded to the Red Sox last week. It would appear the club is open to moving on from Grichuk and coming up with a different outfield arrangement. The Blue Jays had a potent offence in 2021 but have since lost Marcus Semien to the Rangers, perhaps motivating them to look to Suzuki as a way to replace Semien’s bat. That would still leave them with a weakened infield, however, as the departure of Semien leaves the club with Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal pencilled into second and third base.

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