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Red Sox To Sign Chris Martin To Two-Year Deal

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December 8: Robert Murray of FanSided provides the specific contract breakdown. Martin will make $6MM in 2023 and $7.5MM in 2024, in addition to a $4MM signing bonus.

December 2: The Red Sox and reliever Chris Martin are in agreement on a two-year deal, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. The deal is pending a physical and will be worth $17.5MM.

Martin, 37 in June, has had one of the more unique baseball trajectories. As detailed in this 2019 piece from Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Martin had shoulder surgery in 2006 that he thought was the end of his career. Years later, he was working for Lowe’s and UPS and discovered during a game of catch with friends that his shoulder didn’t bother him anymore.

He got back onto the mound and worked his way to the big leagues, pitching a couple of seasons in 2014 and 2015 before heading to Japan for 2016 and 2017. He returned to the majors for 2018 and has spent the past five seasons as an effective middle reliever with perhaps the best control in the league. Martin has walked just 2.8% of batters faced in that time, the best such rate of any pitcher with at least 200 innings pitched.

This year was no exception. He began the year by signing a one-year deal with the Cubs for $2.5MM plus incentives. Through 31 1/3 innings in Chicago, his ERA was an unimpressive 4.31 but with much stronger peripherals. His 30.1% strikeout rate, 3% walk rate and 52.3% ground ball rate were all much better than league average. However, his ERA was being inflated by a .393 batting average on balls in play and by 20.8% of his fly balls allowed leaving the yard.

The Dodgers believed some regression was due and sent Zach McKinstry to the Cubs in order to install Martin in their bullpen down the stretch. The results were utterly dominant, as Martin pitched to a 1.46 ERA, striking out 37% of batters faced while walking just 1.1%. He also added another two innings of postseason work without issuing a walk.

Based on that strong season, MLBTR predicted he could secure a two-year, $14MM deal, but Martin has nudged past that by a few million. The relief market has been quite strong so far this winter, with Martin and Rafael Montero both beating their predictions by healthy margins.

The bullpen was a weak spot for Boston in 2022, as their relievers posted a collective ERA of 4.59, 26th in the majors. They also lost one of their effective members to free agency in Matt Strahm. They’ve since made moves to try and bolster the relief corps by singing Joely Rodriguez and now Martin. Assuming the money is evenly distributed in two instalments of $8.75MM, Roster Resource has their 2023 payroll currently at $142MM with a competitive balance tax calculation of $161MM.

Padres, Xander Bogaerts Agree To 11-Year Deal

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The Padres closed out the Winter Meetings with a stunner, reportedly agreeing to an 11-year, $280MM contract with Xander Bogaerts. The deal does not contain any options or opt-out provisions, although it does include a full no-trade clause. Bogaerts is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Bogaerts had spent his whole career in Boston, originally joining the organization as an amateur signee from Aruba back in 2009. He quickly developed into one of the sport’s top prospects and was in the majors by August 2013, a few months before his 21st birthday. Bogaerts claimed two Silver Slugger awards within his first four MLB seasons, but his .283/.339/.409 career slash line through 2017 was roughly league average. He took a major step forward in 2018, reaching another level in his age-25 campaign.

He hit .288/.360/.522 with 23 home runs over 136 games that season, helping lead Boston to 108 wins and a World Series title. Bogaerts sustained that new level of excellence, as he’s been a well above-average offensive performer in each of the four years since then. Going back to the start of the 2018 campaign, the righty-hitting infielder owns a .300/.373/.507 line that checks in 34 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+.

On the heels of that breakout season, the Red Sox inked Bogaerts to a long-term deal. Boston guaranteed him $120MM between 2020-25, allowing him to opt out with half that money remaining after 2022. Bogaerts played well enough to earn MVP votes in each of the four seasons since signing that extension, making it a no-brainer he’d take his opt-out opportunity unless he and the Red Sox could preemptively agree upon a new deal.

Extension talks this spring didn’t come close, as Boston reportedly offered to tack on one additional season at $30MM. Turning that down was an easy call for Bogaerts’ camp, and he solidified his opt-out decision with another excellent year. Through 631 plate appearances, he hit .307/.377/.456. Bogaerts’ 15 home runs marked his lowest full-season total since 2017, but he finished tenth in the majors (minimum 500 plate appearances) in on-base percentage.

A career-best .362 batting average on balls in play propped up those rate stats, and it’s unlikely he’ll manage to sustain quite so lofty a mark in future seasons. He owns a career .336 BABIP, though, so there’s plenty of room to remain a strong hitter even if his batting average comes down slightly. He’s walked at an average or better clip in each of the past five years, and he’s kept his strikeout rate remarkably consistent around 18% six seasons running.

Bogaerts makes contact, draws walks and typically threatens or tops 20 homers per season. He’s one of the more well-rounded offensive players in the game, and he’ll step right into an already loaded San Diego lineup. Bogaerts joins Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the middle of a lineup that should be incredibly difficult for opposing pitchers to navigate. That quintet has 11 combined Silver Slugger awards, and they’ll bring an incredible collection of weapons from both sides of the dish.

Where to pencil everyone in on the diamond is a decision the front office and manager Bob Melvin will work out over the coming months. San Diego’s middle infield was already strong. Tatis, two years removed from inking a $341MM extension to serve as the franchise shortstop, will return from his performance-enhancing drug suspension within the first month of next season. Ha-Seong Kim is a Gold Glove caliber shortstop who had a solid .251/.325/.383 line in his second big league campaign. Jake Cronenworth is an above-average defender at second base and owns a .257/.339/.443 mark through his first three seasons.

At least for the moment, Bogaerts seems likely to step in at shortstop. Scott Boras categorically rejected the possibility of Bogaerts moving off the position earlier this offseason. Perhaps the strength of the Padres’ offer changed that thinking, but it’s also possible the Friars rearrange their infield to accommodate his wishes. San Diego had already been considering the idea of moving Tatis to the outfield after his lost season in deference to Kim. Pushing Tatis into left or center field now seems especially likely. Bogaerts could step in at shortstop, with Kim moving to second base and Cronenworth taking over an uncertain first base position.

Bogaerts’ glove has been the subject of immense attention throughout the free agent process. The 6’2″, 218-pounder has a larger build than many shortstops, and he’s drawn some criticism for lacking prototypical range. Public defensive metrics roundly panned his glove throughout his career, with Defensive Runs Saved pegging him below par every year from 2014-21. Concerns about his long-term defensive outlook seemingly played into Boston’s low extension offer this past spring, but Bogaerts posted the strongest defensive metrics of his career in 2022.

In 1249 2/3 innings this past season, he rated as five runs above average by DRS and four runs better than par, according to Statcast. Concerns about his lateral quickness into his mid-30’s figure to persist, but his strong 2022 campaign at least reduced any urgency to move him off shortstop immediately.

The Padres clearly aren’t much concerned about Bogaerts’ long-term defensive fit. Owner Peter Seidler and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller have been hellbent on adding another star regardless of position. They reportedly made offers well north of $300MM for both Trea Turner and Aaron Judge, but both players declined and signed elsewhere. Those failed pursuits of Turner and Judge made the Padres a fascinating wild card this offseason, and while reports initially suggested they were unlikely to dip back into the shortstop market, they pivoted and made a run at Bogaerts.

An 11-year term will take him through his age-40 campaign. That matches the term Turner received from Philadelphia, but Bogaerts was generally expected to command a lesser deal in light of his long-term defensive concerns. Turner’s $300MM guarantee does beat the one received by Bogaerts, but the $20MM gap was closer than most had envisioned.

The deal shatters MLBTR’s pre-offseason prediction of $189MM over seven seasons. It’s the second-largest free agent deal in franchise history — trailing only Machado’s ten-year, $300MM pact. The $280MM guarantee is the seventh-largest for a free agent in MLB history, with Judge and Turner topping it thus far among this offseason’s free agents.

The cost for the Padres goes well beyond the terms of the offer itself. The specific financial breakdown hasn’t yet been reported, but the contract comes with a $25.45MM average annual value. That’s the relevant consideration for luxury tax purposes, and it sends the Padres well into tax territory. Roster Resource projects the Friars for a tax number around $254MM at present. That’s $21MM north of the $233MM base threshold, and $1MM above the second tier of penalization.

San Diego has paid the luxury tax in each of the last two seasons, and it looks all but certain they’ll do so again. They’re taxed at a 50% rate for every dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, coming out to $10MM in fees. They’ll be charged 62% on any overages between $253MM and $273MM, and they’d face heightened penalties thereafter. As things currently stand, the Bogaerts deal sets them up for a tax bill around $10.6MM. Further additions or subtractions will alter that number, but it’s virtually certain they’ll be into competitive balance tax territory yet again.

It’s worth noting that at $27.27MM and $25.45MM respectively, both Turner and Bogaerts accepted lower average annual values than expected while also reaching an 11-year term that had only happened once before in free agency when Bryce Harper signed for 13 years.  With infielders Corey Seager, Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, and Anthony Rendon receiving AAVs ranging from $32.5-35MM dating back to 2019, it may be surprising that Turner and Bogaerts fell well below that range.  It’s all about that CBT – the Phillies and Padres reduce their luxury tax hits and tax bills for taking on the players’ late-30s seasons, which project to have little value.

Bogaerts rejected a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, meaning the Padres will also have to surrender draft choices to add him. As a team that paid the luxury tax in 2022, they’re subject to the highest penalties. San Diego will be stripped of its second and fifth-highest selections in next year’s amateur draft, and they’ll forfeit $1MM in international signing bonus space.

While the Padres load up for another run at the powerhouse Dodgers in the NL West, the Red Sox will have to move on from a homegrown star who’s played a key role with the franchise for nearly a decade. It’s an abrupt about-face for the organization. While it had long looked as if Bogaerts would depart given the lack of progress on an extension in Spring Training, reports Wednesday morning suggested their talks with his camp were gaining momentum.

It seemed as if he might remain in Boston for the entirety of his prime, but the Padres’ offer wound up handily surpassing Boston’s. Pete Abraham and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe report the Red Sox had offered a six-year term worth around $160MM. That was more in line with general pre-offseason expectations and contained a slightly higher annual salary than the deal Boagerts received, but San Diego’s willingness to tack on an extra half-decade in guaranteed money made the gap enormous.  Somehow, the $137.375MM the Red Sox spent on Masataka Yoshida and Kenley Jansen earlier Wednesday almost seems quaint in comparison to the Bogaerts contract.

The Red Sox will receive compensation for Bogaerts’ departure, but it’s at the lowest tier since Boston also paid the competitive balance tax in 2022. They’ll receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft. That’s of small consolation, and the far greater concern is how the club will move forward. Boston signed Trevor Story to a $140MM guarantee last offseason, giving themselves some cover at shortstop. Should they prefer to keep Story at second base, they could check in with the two remaining top free agent shortstops, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson.  Regardless, Boston is certainly not done after chief baseball office Chaim Bloom said Monday he hopes to add “seven, eight, nine” players to the team this offseason.  Starting pitcher and the catcher position are two items remaining on the shopping list even if shortstop is handled in-house.

Correa and Swanson are sitting pretty with Turner and Bogaerts having exceeded expectations in terms of total dollars.  While the Boras Corporation representing both Bogaerts and Correa could be viewed as a conflict of interest, the agency managed to get Bogaerts signed with a team that hadn’t been expected to sign a shortstop at the outset of the offseason.

It’s a deal of massive proportions, one that could drastically shake up both leagues. After a couple attempts came up empty, the Padres landed their desired superstar. The Red Sox’s optimism of a few hours ago was dashed by a determined organization that now spends like a big-market behemoth. Bogaerts lands one of the largest contracts in MLB history, setting the stage for a fascinating bidding war for the two star shortstops who remain unsigned.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report Bogaerts and the Padres had agreed to an 11-year, $280MM contract. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported the deal did not come with any opt-out provisions and included a full no-trade clause.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins Among Teams With Interest In Dansby Swanson

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The Twins recently chatted with Dansby Swanson via video conference, reports Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic. They’re one of a handful of teams in discussion with the longtime Brave, who’s one of the three top shortstops remaining in free agency.

Minnesota is one of a handful of teams that has been involved in the market. Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports the Cubs, Cardinals and Red Sox have joined the Twins in showing significant interest this offseason (Twitter link). The incumbent Braves have also publicly maintained they’d like to keep Swanson.

There’s still a fair bit of uncertainty in Swanson’s market, as he’s not the primary target of either Minnesota or Boston. The Twins continue to prioritize Carlos Correa, although there’s also a chance they’re outbid by a bigger spender. The Dodgers are reportedly uninterested in Correa, but the Giants loom as a major threat after missing out on Aaron Judge. San Francisco still has plenty of spending capacity after Judge declined their offer in the $360MM range, and Correa has been reported as their favorite of the top-tier shortstops available. The Twins have been linked to both Bogaerts and now Swanson as potential fallback options in the event they lose the bidding for Correa.

Swanson’s surely a secondary option for the Red Sox as well. Boston chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has called Bogaerts their top priority on a number of occasions, and reports this morning suggested there was growing momentum in talks between the Sox and their longtime shortstop. So long as no deal is in place, the Red Sox are a viable fit for Swanson. If they do retain Bogaerts, he’d pair with Trevor Story in the middle infield and almost certainly rule out a Swanson pickup.

It looks unlikely the Cardinals will remain in the top of the shortstop market moving forward. St. Louis agreed to terms with top free agent backstop Willson Contreras this morning. That obviously doesn’t present a positional logjam for Swanson, but it adds a reported five-year, $87.5MM contract to the books. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggested earlier this week the Cards were unlikely to pursue the top shortstops unless they acquired their catcher more affordably via trade. A significant free agent deal for Contreras seems likely to leave the Cards to rely on Tommy Edman and some combination of Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman up the middle.

The Cubs are a stronger fit for Swanson. They’re not attempting to retain an in-house free agent shortstop as Minnesota and Boston are. Chicago has Nico Hoerner as a franchise building block, but he’s already expressed a willingness to kick over to second base to accommodate a big-ticket acquisition. The Cubs have already met with each of Correa, Bogaerts and Swanson and could make sense for any of that trio. Yet with the strong interest Correa and Bogaerts are seemingly drawing from other clubs, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this afternoon the Cubs view Swanson as a more realistic target.

Swanson’s going to command a significant deal in his own right, of course. He won the NL Gold Glove award at shortstop in 2022, and he’s coming off arguably the best offensive season of his career. The 28-year-old (29 in February) hit .277/.329/.447 with 25 home runs while suiting up in all 162 games. He made the no-brainer decision to decline a qualifying offer, meaning any signing team would have to forfeit a draft choice to bring him in. MLBTR predicted Swanson to land a seven-year, $154MM deal at the opening of the offseason.

Red Sox To Sign Masataka Yoshida To Five-Year Deal

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The Red Sox have made a big addition to their lineup, agreeing to terms with outfielder Masataka Yoshida. It’s reportedly a five-year, $90MM guarantee, and the deal does not contain any option provisions or opt-out clauses. The Japanese star had just been made available via the posting system this week, but the Sox struck quickly with a record-setting contract offer.

Yoshida lands the loftiest guarantee of any position player making the jump from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors. The record was just set last spring by Seiya Suzuki, who inked a five-year, $85MM deal with the Cubs. Perhaps not coincidentally, Yoshida will edge past that by a million dollars annually.

It’s a massive gamble for the Red Sox, but one they’re prepared to take to add much-needed outfield help. Yoshida has been one of the more accomplished hitters in Japan for the past few seasons. He’s appeared in NPB for the last seven years and carries a career .327/.421/.539 line. The left-handed hitter has reached base in more than 40% of his plate appearances in each of the past six seasons, and he topped a 1.000 OPS for the first time in 2022. Yoshida hit .335/.447/.561 through 508 trips to the dish this year.

The 29-year-old has shown exceptional bat-to-ball skills in Japan, walking more often than he’s struck out for four straight years. This past season’s marks were especially impressive, as he had nearly twice as many free passes as punchouts. Yoshida walked at a massive 15.7% clip while fanning in only 8.1% of his plate appearances. He surely won’t be expected to maintain rates quite that impressive in MLB, where the quality of pitchers’ repertoires is more consistent. Yet the Red Sox are confident he’ll carry over much of that elite on-base ability, presumably as a top-of-the-lineup option for skipper Alex Cora.

The plate discipline is Yoshida’s primary attribute, but he also brings a fair bit of extra-base pop. Despite being listed at just 5’8″, he’s topped 21 home runs in four of the last five years, and he’s collected over 20 doubles five years running. He’s never reached 30 longballs in a season, although he’s consistently been a threat for 20+ homers in Japan.

Suzuki had a stronger track record from a power perspective, twice topping 30 homers and blasting 38 during his final NPB season. Suzuki didn’t have Yoshida’s elite plate discipline metrics, though, posting roughly equal strikeout and walk numbers for his final two years. Yoshida brings a different profile than Suzuki will, but the Red Sox are clearly of the opinion he’ll immediately step in as an above-average offensive performer at the MLB level. Suzuki, for what it’s worth, did immediately find success — hitting .262/.332/.433 in his first season in Chicago.

Yoshida will have to perform at the plate to be productive, as he doesn’t offer much defensive value. He’s generally viewed as a left field-only player at the MLB level. That had been a key area of need for Boston, which entered today with Jarren Duran atop the depth chart. The former top prospect has only a .219/.269/.354 line in 335 MLB plate appearances over the past two years. He’ll be bumped into fourth outfield duty or back to Triple-A Worcester, and it stands to reason the Sox could at least consider the possibility of dealing Duran to add MLB help elsewhere on the roster.

Boston’s investment goes beyond the contract value, as they’ll also owe compensation to the Orix Buffaloes. Under the MLB – NPB agreement, an MLB team that signs a player who’d been posted owes a fee to the player’s former NPB team. That’s dependent on the value of the contract itself, with the posting fee coming out to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any additional dollars. On a $90MM guarantee, that comes out to a $15.375MM payment to the Buffaloes. Overall, the Red Sox’s investment tallies $105.375MM.

The specific financial breakdown has yet to be reported. An even distribution of $18MM annually would bring the Sox’s estimated 2023 payroll commitments around $175MM, per Roster Resource. The $18MM average annual value brings the team’s luxury tax commitments to around $195MM. They’re still well shy of the $233MM base tax threshold and their estimated $207MM Opening Day payroll from this past season.

Boston’s certainly not done, and it’s possible they finalize another major contract in the coming days. Reports this morning suggest there’s growing momentum between the Sox and Xander Bogaerts, lending some optimism they could retain the four-time All-Star. Beyond the middle infield, areas like catcher and the back of the rotation stand out as potential targets for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his staff moving forward.

Yoshida’s signing subtracts another outfielder from the open market. Brandon Nimmo is the top player remaining, while Andrew Benintendi, Jurickson Profar and Michael Conforto are options at lower tiers. Teams like the Yankees, Blue Jays and Mariners reportedly had interest in Yoshida. All three have been searching for solutions in the corner outfield and will have to look elsewhere if they’re to land a lefty-swinging outfielder.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Red Sox and Yoshida had agreed to a five-year deal worth north of $85MM. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to peg the guarantee at $90MM. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported the deal contained no options or opt-out clauses.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

2022 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2022 Rule 5 draft will begin at 4pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in San Diego. This will be the first time since 2019 that the meetings will be held in person, as the 2020 edition was virtual because of the pandemic and the 2021 draft was cancelled entirely due to the lockout.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and were signed in 2018 or earlier, and any players 19 or older and signed in 2019 or earlier, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2022 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2023 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. The most recent edition in 2020 saw some notable names move around, such as Akil Baddoo going from the Twins to the Tigers while Garrett Whitlock went from the Yankees to the Red Sox.

This post will be updated with the results as they come in…

First Round

1. Nationals: RHP Thad Ward (Red Sox) (hat tip to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com)
2. A’s: 1B Ryan Noda (Dodgers)
3. Pirates: LHP Jose Hernandez (Dodgers)
4. Reds: OF Blake Sabol (Pirates); Reds later traded Sabol to Giants for cash or a player to be named later
5. Royals: pass
6. Tigers: RHP Mason Englert (Rangers)
7. Rangers: pass
8. Rockies: RHP Kevin Kelly (Guardians); Rockies later traded Kelly to Rays for cash considerations
9. Marlins: RHP Nic Enright (Guardians)
10. Angels: pass
11. D-backs: pass
12. Cubs: pass
13. Twins: pass
14. Red Sox: pass
15. White Sox: RHP Nick Avila (Giants)
16. Giants: pass
17. Orioles: RHP Andrew Politi (Red Sox)
18. Brewers: RHP Gus Varland (Dodgers)
19. Rays: pass
20. Phillies: RHP Noah Song (Red Sox)
21. Padres: LHP Jose Lopez (Rays)
22. Mariners: RHP Chris Clarke (Cubs)
23. Guardians: pass
24. Blue Jays: pass
25. Cardinals:RHP Wilking Rodriguez (Yankees)
26. Yankees: pass
27. Mets: RHP Zach Greene (Yankees)
27. Braves: pass
29. Astros: pass
30. Dodgers: pass

Second Round

  • All teams passed

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include Hector Perez from Baltimore to the Rays, Josh Palacios from the Nationals to the Pirates, Jared Oliva from the Pirates to the Angels, Nick Burdi from the Padres to the Cubs, Peter Solomon from the Pirates to the D-Backs and Jonathan Arauz from the Orioles to the Mets.

Seth Lugo Drawing Widespread Interest

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DECEMBER 7: The Angels, Nationals and Dodgers are also in the market, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic.

DECEMBER 6, 8:01pm: The Red Sox are also expressing interest in Lugo, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (on Twitter).

DECEMBER 6, 6:39pm: Right-hander Seth Lugo has been drawing interest as a starting pitcher and Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that working as a starter is Lugo’s preference as well, with the Padres one of several teams interested in him.

It’s been a while since Lugo has been tried out in a rotation role for more than a brief stretch. His career high for starts in a big league season is 18, which came back in 2017. Since that time, he’s been primarily working out of the bullpen, serving as an effective reliever for the Mets.

In 278 career games, only 38 of them have been starts, but Lugo has a career 3.48 ERA, 24.8% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 44.1% ground ball rate. He’s fared much better out of the ’pen, as his ERA is 2.91 there while 4.35 as a starter, with more strikeouts as a reliever to match.

Despite that split, as mentioned, it’s been quite some time since Lugo’s been given an extended stretch in the rotation. That means most of those stats came from Lugo’s first two years in the big leagues, when he made 26 of those 38 career starts. It’s possible he’s capable of producing better results now that he has more experience. He also has a larger pitch mix than the average reliever, something that could help him move through a lineup a few times. Last year, he had four pitches that he threw at least 13.7% of the time, with his curveball leading the way at 33.5%, followed by his four-seamer at 29.3%, his sinker at 21.9% and his slider at 13.7%. He also has a changeup that he mixed in 1.6% of the time, though it’s been 7.1% for his career.

For the Padres, they lost a couple members of their rotation to free agency in Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea, while also trading MacKenzie Gore to the Nationals. Nick Martinez opted out of his contract but was quickly re-signed and seems to have a chance of retaking a rotation spot himself, after getting bumped to the bullpen. They currently have Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell in the front three spots. It would be surprising to see them go into the season with the last two spots in their rotation dedicated to unproven options like Martinez and Lugo, especially when they just reportedly offered Trea Turner $342MM. But it’s possible they could also add a fourth starter and have those Martinez and Lugo battle for the fifth spot with one of them going to the bullpen if everyone is healthy. Though Lugo reportedly prefers to start, it’s unknown how he would value a non-guaranteed starting role on a contender like the Padres against a clearer path to starting on a less-competitive team.

San Diego’s payroll limits are an ongoing question. As mentioned, they just made a massive offer to Turner, but some reporting indicates they were willing to make an exception for him and won’t necessarily dedicate those resources to other players. As of right now, Roster Resource calculates their competitive balance tax figure at $230MM, just barely under the lowest CBT threshold of $233MM. With the club still seeking to upgrade in the rotation and elsewhere, going over the line seems inevitable. Lugo isn’t likely to break the bank as a back-end rotation candidate but every dollar over the line will count. Since the Padres are set to be a third-time payor, they will be subject to a 50% tax on all spending over the line and even higher penalties if they go over by $20MM or more.

Red Sox Have “Momentum” With Xander Bogaerts

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1:15pm: Abraham tweets that there is “momentum” between Bogaerts and the Sox.

11:40am: The Red Sox and shortstop Xander Bogaerts are meeting this morning, according to Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe. The sides are in “heavy discussions,” according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

Bogaerts, of course, has spent his entire career with the Sox thus far, having been signed as an amateur back in 2009. He worked his way up to the majors by 2013 and had a tremendous breakout season in 2015, firmly establishing himself as the club’s shortstop. He’s held down that job ever since, making at least 134 starts at short in each full season from 2015 onwards, as well as 52 starts in 2020.

Bogaerts signed an extension with the club in 2019, which was generally considered to be very team-friendly. It had the potential to keep Bogaerts in Boston through 2026, though it also afforded him the opportunity to opt out after 2022. Bogaerts just continued to mash in the four years since that extension was signed, hitting 82 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .304/.376/.503 from 2019 through 2022. That level of production has made it clear for some time that Bogaerts would opt out, which is perhaps why the Sox went out and grabbed Trevor Story in free agency a year ago. The club reportedly made a feeble attempt at another Bogaerts extension back in April, but that went nowhere and Bogaerts eventually opted out.

Boston’s chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has continued to insist that retaining Bogaerts is a priority for the club, despite Bogaerts seemingly getting stronger interest from other clubs like the Padres, Cubs, Phillies and Diamondbacks. However, it’s possible that there is now some more urgency towards a reunion. As Abraham notes, there was a call last night between Boston’s owners and executives, with the contents of that conversation perhaps leading to today’s meetings.

Bogaerts entered free agency as one of the “big four” shortstops, alongside Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. Turner has already come off the board, securing an 11-year, $300MM deal with the Phillies. MLBTR predicted that Bogaerts would get $189MM over seven years, or $27MM per season. However, the market has generally been strong so far this offseason, with most players beating their projections, sometimes significantly.

The Sox have primarily been active in the relief market so far, adding Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez to their bullpen. Those deals have brought their 2023 payroll to $157MM, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax calculation of $177MM. The Sox paid the luxury tax this year but would still be shy of next year’s $233MM threshold even if they added close to $30MM on a Bogaerts deal. However, by going over in 2022, they’ve dented their compensation if Bogaerts signs elsewhere. Since he received and rejected a qualifying offer, the Red Sox would get a draft pick if he joined another team but their CBT payor status bumps that pick to after the fourth round when it would have been just before the third round otherwise.

In the event a deal does get done, it’s likely that the club would use a similar infield mix to last year with Xander at short, Story at second and Devers at third. Devers is entering his walk year, meaning it’s possible that a similar “will they get it done” situation plays out next year with him instead of Bogaerts. For 2023 though, a Bogaerts signing would likely push Enrique Hernández back into center field on a full-time basis, lessening the club’s need to worry about that spot.

Red Sox To Sign Kenley Jansen

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11:03am: Jansen will be paid an even $16MM in each season of the contract, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.

9:35am: The Red Sox are in agreement on a two-year, $32MM contract with free-agent right-hander Kenley Jansen, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link). The Wasserman client becomes the third free-agent reliever to sign in Boston this winter, joining righty Chris Martin and lefty Joely Rodriguez in what’s becoming a rapidly overhauled bullpen.

Kenley Jansen

Change was necessary in the Boston ’pen, however, as Red Sox relievers logged the fifth-worst ERA in baseball (4.59) and ninth-worst FIP (4.13) — due in no small part to combining for the fifth-highest walk rate of any relief corps in MLB. The ninth inning, in particular, was a revolving door for the Sox in 2022. Nine different relievers recorded saves, and righties John Schreiber, Tanner Houck and Matt Barnes finished the season in a three-way tie for the team lead, at eight apiece.

Jansen, nine saves away from 400 in his illustrious career, should bring some much-needed stability to the situation. The 35-year-old’s velocity is down a couple miles per hour from its 2014 peak, but he’s managed to find plenty of success even as his deadly cutter has faded from an average of nearly 95 mph to a 92.2 mph average with the Braves in 2022.

It was just a one-year stay in Atlanta for Jansen, who’d spent the prior 12 seasons of his big league career with the Dodgers, but the results were strong. Jansen saved 41 games and pitched to a 3.38 ERA with even better secondary marks: a 32.7% strikeout rate, an 8.5% walk rate and a 2.76 SIERA, to name a few. That walk rate, in particular, marked a pronounced rebound from an uncharacteristic spike to 12.9% in 2021, which now looks more like an anomaly than the start of a worrying trend.

Jansen’s 2022 season wasn’t without its red flags. Last season’s 11.4% swinging-strike rate was a career-low by a full two percentage points and clocked in 3.9 percentage points south of his 15.3% career mark. He also required a stint on the injured list due to an irregular heartbeat for the fourth time in his career. Jansen has had a pair of cardiac ablation procedures in hopes of finally putting the heart issues behind him. While it seems he’s not entirely clear of the longstanding issue, it’s also encouraging that he returned in the minimum 15 days this time around.

The 2022 season marked Jansen’s 13th season in the Majors, all of which have resulted in an ERA of 3.71 or lower (including nine sub-3.00 campaigns and four sub-2.00 seasons). Despite the brief absence due to his heartbeat issue, the otherwise-durable Jansen topped 60 innings in nine of the past ten full, 162-game seasons. It’s fair to say that he’s gone from virtually unbeatable in his 20s to “merely” excellent in his 30s, but Jansen still possesses a 3.08 ERA in 292 innings since turning 30.

A deepened relief corps with newly signed veterans allows the Red Sox to more confidently give some key young arms a look in the rotation. Garrett Whitlock has oscillated between starting and relieving, but the organization plans to use him as a starter in 2023, GM Brian O’Halloran said earlier in the offseason. Fellow righty Tanner Houck could also get a look in the rotation, O’Halloran added, though no formal decision has been announced on that front. In all likelihood, his role will depend on the manner in which the Sox are able to either bolster the starting rotation and/or further deepen the bullpen.

The Red Sox paid the luxury tax by a narrow margin in 2023, but with the potential departures of Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill and Matt Strahm (who’s reportedly nearing a deal with the Phillies), Boston’s current luxury projection is nearly $60MM shy of the first-tier tax threshold — even including the salaries of newcomers Jansen, Martin and Rodriguez. Boston had more money coming off the books than nearly any team in the sport this winter, and as things stand, they’re more than $70MM from their franchise record for Opening Day payroll.

In that respect, the deluge of near-misses the Sox have had in free agency thus far are extra discouraging. The Red Sox made a three-year offer to Jose Abreu before he signed in Houston, for instance, and they reportedly believed they were close to a three-year, $40MM deal with righty Zach Eflin before he the Florida native the same contract with his home-state Rays. Boston has also reportedly made offers to Andrew Heaney and Tommy Kahnle before they agreed to deals with the Rangers and Yankees, respectively, and the Sox had talks with the Brewers about Kolten Wong before he was traded to the Mariners.

Frustrating as it must be for both the front office and fan base to see so many pursuits come up empty-handed, the Sox are still sporting as much financial firepower as any team on the market. Bringing Jansen into the fold gives the Sox a strong end-of-the-game presence, as he can join Martin and Schreiber in handling high-leverage spots next season. There’s still work to be done in the rotation and in the lineup, and Boston continues to pursue a reunion with Bogaerts as well as a possible extension with third baseman Rafael Devers. Jansen checks one notable item off chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom’s to-do list, but expect plenty of additional activity from the Sox as they look to leverage their considerable financial resources.

Willson Contreras Has Received Preliminary Multi-Year Offers From Cardinals, Astros

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The market for the top free agent catcher continues to come into view. Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago reports that Willson Contreras has received preliminary multi-year offers from both the Cardinals and Astros at this week’s Winter Meetings. A third team has also put forth an offer, according to Wittenmyer, though the identity of that club is unknown (but is said to not be either Boston or Tampa Bay). Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch characterizes discussions more informally as the team also juggles trade possibilities but notes there has been talk about the possibility of a multi-year offer.

Both St. Louis and Houston have been tied to Contreras numerous times through the offseason, but it’s still notable those teams have put proposals on the table. John Denton of MLB.com reports (Twitter link) that a fourth year could be an obstacle in Contreras’ talks with St. Louis. According to Denton, the Cards are prepared to meet the three-time All-Star’s asking price on an annual basis but are reluctant to go past three seasons. Whether another team is putting a fourth year on the table isn’t clear, although Wittenmyer adds that no teams have thus far been willing to go five years.

St. Louis skipper Oliver Marmol confirmed reports the Cards would sit down with Contreras at the Winter Meetings. Goold has suggested the team’s preferred solution is to acquire A’s backstop Sean Murphy, although that’d require surrendering highly-regarded young talent — and the A’s are reportedly looking for MLB-ready players in return. It’s perhaps not a coincidence that Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat tweets there’s a growing sense the Cardinals could find their new catcher in free agency, and he characterizes Contreras as the target that’d be most likely in that scenario.

The Astros interest in Contreras dates back to the trade deadline, but owner Jim Crane nixed an agreed-upon swap that’d have brought him in from Chicago. It seems they’re less concerned about him acclimating to a new pitching staff with an offseason to prepare than they’d be if he were added in the midst of a pennant race, and the multi-year proposals on the table reflect that. Houston has Martín Maldonado as their top backstop at present, and Contreras would be expected to rotate between catcher, left field and designated hitter if they pulled off a deal.

At the end of the season, the 30-year-old declined a qualifying offer from the Cubs. He’d cost any signing team at least one draft pick, while the Cubs stand to receive draft compensation in the highly likely event he departs. MLBTR forecasted a four-year, $84MM contract for Contreras at the start of the offseason.

Red Sox Notes: Bogaerts, Wong, Vazquez, Contreras, Heaney

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“No progress towards a deal was made” when the Red Sox and Xander Bogaerts’ agent Scott Boras met yesterday, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe writes.  Earlier reports suggested that other teams had pulled ahead of the Sox in the race to sign the All-Star, though chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said Bogaerts was still a major priority for the club.

As one might expect, Boras highlighted the amount of interest his client is generating from multiple teams, while not closing the door on any other suitor.  In regards to the Red Sox, Boras said “I just know we continue to talk and have dialogue and continue the process with them.  The Red Sox, they kind of have four-star ownership. These guys have proven over time that they win and they pursue winning….I think everyone around them understands the Sox without ‘X’ are So-So.”

While puns are part and parcel of the Boras experience, his agency’s general policy against letting a player’s former team make a so-called final offer is also notable in regards to Boston’s chances.  “We’re not the matching kind. We let teams know that they have to assert,” Boras said.  “We don’t ever hold back from reaching an agreement with any team and certainly we don’t give market preference to anyone.  Otherwise, I think the free agent right would be dampened if you did.”

It remains unclear if re-signing Bogaerts is still a realistic proposition for the Red Sox, and many of the team’s actions over the last year (i.e. the signing of Trevor Story, or a low extension offer to Bogaerts last spring) would seem to suggest that the Sox are preparing for a future without Bogaerts on the roster.  Another hint could be Boston’s interest in Kolten Wong, as The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports that the Sox had some talks with the Brewers before Wong was dealt to the Mariners.

A source tells Speier that if the Red Sox had traded for Wong, “it 100 percent would not have taken [them] out of the market” to re-sign Bogaerts.  The Sox would have hypothetically used Bogaerts, Story, and Wong in the middle infield mix, or possibly even flipped Wong to another team in a trade if Bogaerts had indeed been re-signed.  While Wong seems overqualified for such a part-time role, “the Sox want to explore opportunities to add high-end depth” after injuries hampered the position-player mix in 2022.

If Bogaerts’ future in Boston is still up in the air, another familiar face might be a possibility for the team, as MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link) reports that the Red Sox were meeting today with Christian Vazquez’s agents.  Cotillo did note that this meeting might not directly involve Vazquez, as MDR Sports Management also represents several other players, including free agent catchers Robinson Chirinos and Roberto Perez.

Reese McGuire and Connor Wong are Boston’s incumbent catchers heading into the 2023 season, with prospect Ronaldo Hernandez and recent waiver claim Caleb Hamilton also in the mix.  It would seem like the Sox are at least exploring the market for more help behind the plate, given how Boston has been mentioned as one of the many teams with trade interest in the Athletics’ Sean Murphy.  However, Cotillo reports that there is “nothing going on” between the Red Sox and the top catcher on the free agent market, Willson Contreras.

Andrew Heaney was also on Boston’s radar this offseason, and Cotillo tweets that the Sox were one of the many teams who made the left-hander a contract offer.  The Red Sox fell short, however, as Heaney opted to sign with the Rangers for two years and $25MM in guaranteed money.

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