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Yankees Extend Luis Severino

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4:48pm: The Yankees have now announced the agreement.

11:00am Severino’s fifth-year option is worth $15MM and comes with a $2.75MM buyout, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. He’ll earn a $2MM signing bonus, a $4MM salary in 2019, $10MM in 2020, $10.25MM in 2021 and $11MM in 2022. In all, Severino can earn up to $52.25MM if the option is exercised.

As has been the case with numerous recent extensions — Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Whit Merrifield — Severino’s deal is more front-loaded than conventional extensions. That’s been agreed upon in some cases as a means of protection against a potential work stoppage upon completion of the current CBA in 2021.

10:41am: The Yankees and right-hander Luis Severino have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a multi-year contract, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter links). The new contract is pending a physical. Severino, a client of Rep 1 Baseball, will be guaranteed $40MM over a four-year contract that contains a club option for a fifth season.

Luis Severino |Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The first major payday comes as an early birthday present for Severino, who’ll turn 25 next Wednesday. It’s a well-earned contract for the Dominican-born righty, who to this point in his career has turned in a 3.51 ERA in 518 innings of work. Over the past two seasons, Severino has been both excellent and consistent, compiling a combined 3.18 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9 and a 46 percent ground-ball rate in 384 2/3 innings of work. Though he’s yet to find success in the postseason spotlight, the Yankees’ strong core should afford Severino ample opportunities to do so over the life of this contract.

Severino had been arbitration-eligible for the first time as a Super Two player, meaning he was already controlled for those four seasons. However, the new contract arrangement affords the team with control over what would have been the right-hander’s first season of free agency.

Severino’s camp filed for a $5.25MM salary against the Yankees’ submission of $4.4MM (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker), so this contract promises him what would be at least an additional $35.6MM for his three subsequent arbitration seasons (or an additional $34.75MM in the scenario where he had won that case). Heading into arbitration, Severino and righty Aaron Nola were viewed as similar cases, and the similarity between the pair of extensions they signed this week — Nola inked a four-year, $45MM pact on Wednesday — further speak to the comparable nature of their cases.

The most notable difference between the pair of right-handers, though, was that Nola had already surpassed three year of service, while Severino was a Super Two. So while the Phillies gained control over an additional two seasons of Nola (in exchange for an additional $5MM in guarantees), the Yankees are buying out just one free-agent year. Severino will now hit the open market in advance of his age-30 season.

As was the case with the Nola deal, there’s some risk baked into this new pact for Severino. While one can hardly fault him from wanting to secure a first life-altering contract, Severino is also forgoing the opportunity to reach free agency heading into his age-29 campaign — an age at which Patrick Corbin received a six-year, $140MM contract. Granted, he’s only pushing the free-agent clock back by one season, but teams have shown an increased reluctance to pay a premium as players enter their early and mid-30s. It’s also quite possible that with at least $4.4MM (and potentially as much as $5.25MM) already banked, Severino could’ve handily topped $40MM in total earnings over the course of his four arbitration seasons.

Of course, those risks apply to virtually any early-career extension, and Severino’s new arrangement provides him with a nice safety net in the event that he incurs a serious injury or unexpected decline — either of which could radically alter his earning capacity in a scenario where he’d opted to go year-to-year through the arbitration process.

Looking at historical precedent, the contract, like Nola’s, is somewhat of a half measure. Severino isn’t fully betting on himself, surrendering his earliest opportunity at free agency in exchange for an immediate payday, but his camp also opted not to go for broke in terms of establishing a new precedent for Super Two starting pitcher extensions.

As shown in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, Gio Gonzalez’s now seven-year-old extension with the Nationals (five years, $42MM and two club options) still stands out as the largest contract ever signed by a pitcher with between two and three years of service time. Severino did top Corey Kluber’s $38.5MM deal with the Indians by a slight margin, but Kluber wasn’t Super Two eligible and was four years older at that point than Severino is now. Of course, both Gonzalez and Kluber agreed to five-year guarantees with multiple club options as part of those contracts, whereas Severino only surrendered five years of control in total. With that in mind, it’s likely that the Yankees would have wanted (at least) an additional year of control over Severino in order to firmly set a new precedent — something to which Severino’s camp may simply not have been amenable.

Historical context aside, Severino’s contract will push the Yankees’ 2019 payroll to just north of $202MM and come with a $10MM hit on their luxury tax payroll, which is calculated by contracts’ average annual value as opposed to their year-to-year salaries. The Severino extension, then, brings New York’s 2019 luxury tax ledger to a bit more than $222MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, which checks in about $16MM north of the $206MM luxury threshold. Looking beyond the current season, the Yankees now have nearly $146MM committed to the 2020 payroll and more than $161MM on their 2020 luxury ledger.

Yankees, Severino Appear Headed For Hearing

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  • In other AL East contractual matters, the Yankees’ reported chatter about a long-term deal with staff ace Luis Severino does not seem to be gaining traction, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). It seems that the sides will instead focus on preparing for an upcoming arbitration hearing, though that can always change at the last minute — whether due to agreement on a single-season salary or something more significant. If the case goes to a panel, the arbitrators will need to decide between Severino’s proposed $5.25MM payout and the club’s $4.4MM counter. There’s added significance given that the Super Two qualifier still has three more potential arb years to come, making his starting salary quite important.

Ellsbury Dealing With Plantar Fasciitis; King Has Stress Reaction In Elbow

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The injury news didn’t stop there for the Yanks, either, as right-handed pitching prospect Mike King has been shut down for the next three weeks after an MRI revealed a stress reaction in his right elbow. He’ll be re-evaluated after that three-week down period. The 23-year-old King posted a ridiculous 1.79 ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 in 161 1/3 innings across three levels last season, topping out with a brilliant six-start run in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman announced to the media Wednesday that outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury won’t be reporting to camp until next month, as he’s currently being slowed by a case of plantar fasciitis (link via Dan Martin of the New York Post). It’s not yet clear whether Ellsbury will be ready for Opening Day, nor is it clear how much playing time would be available to Ellsbury considering a Yankees outfield mix that features Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner and Giancarlo Stanton (with Clint Frazier also looming in the minors). Ellsbury seems poised for a bench role after missing the entire 2018 season due to injury (most notably including hip surgery).

Yankees Have Discussed Extension With Luis Severino

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The Yankees have held at least some extension talks with young righty Luis Severino, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Whether a deal is likely, though, is not yet clear.

For the time being, Severino remains scheduled to participate in an arbitration hearing to determine his salary for the 2019 season. He filed at $5.25MM, with the team countering at $4.4MM. It’s not an especially high-stakes hearing, then, though setting a high mark in his Super Two year would set up Severino for greater future earnings.

It’s a different situation, then, from that which faced Aaron Nola and the Phillies before they hammered out a long-term deal today. In that case, a hefty $2.2MM spread in arb positions left significant risk on both sides. They ultimately settled for a four-year, $45MM deal that gives the team one option year.

Interestingly, the Yanks’ filing number on Severino sits just below the figure the Phillies would have defended ($4.5MM) on Nola, despite the fact that the Philadelphia hurler has a much more compelling statistical case and was in the 3+ service class. It seems the Yanks and Severino are closer to the same page as a starting point, not that it necessarily spells a greater likelihood for a long-term deal.

The Nola contract does not necessarily bear directly on Severino’s case, given the service differences, but it does represent a notable market marker. Certainly, that new deal does not break significant new ground. It’d be curious, at least, to see Severino secure a stronger deal than Nola with one season longer to go before he’s a free agent, though it’s entirely unclear what terms are being discussed at present. Gio Gonzalez (five years, $42MM, two options) still holds the high-water mark for a Super Two starter.

Latest On Yankees Infield Situation

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The Yankees still aren’t pushing the market for Manny Machado, and probably never will, but also shouldn’t be counted out. That’s the word from Andy Martino of SNY.tv, who reports that the New York org is still keeping tabs on Machado in hopes that a golden opportunity will emerge. The Yanks aren’t interested in utilizing him at short, but would instead plan to put Machado at third while pushing Miguel Andujar across the diamond in the even of a signing. Of course, Martino cautions that it still seems unlikely that anything will come together.

  • It’s interesting that the Yankees evidently wouldn’t see Machado as a factor at shortstop. That lends greater credence to the idea that the team really is committed not only to allowing Troy Tulowitzki to take the job there to open the season, but also to paying a big arbitration salary to Didi Gregorius in hopes that he’ll return in relatively short order (and in good frm) from Tommy John surgery. As Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports, Gregorius has now begun his throwing program. There’s still a long road ahead, but he seems to be on track to make his anticipated summer return.

Yankees Linked To Major 2019-20 Int'l Prosect

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  • Ten of the top names available in the 2019-20 international signing market are profiled by Baseball America’s Ben Badler, all of whom have teams already unofficially attached to their services even though the market doesn’t properly open until July 2.  Dominican outfielder Jasson Dominguez and Dominican shortstop Robert Puason are projected for the highest bonuses, each expected to land something around $5MM, with Dominguez linked to the Yankees and Puason connected to the Athletics.

Hal Steinbrenner Defends Yankees' Spending

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After the Yankees worked to get under the luxury tax limit last offseason, many New York fans expected a classic Bronx Bombers spending spree this winter, particularly with Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in the free agent market.  While that type of splurge hasn’t happened, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner rejected criticism that his team hasn’t been willing to spend.  “I mean, we’re well above $200 million [in payroll] — we’re at $220 [million] right now — and we’re well above where we were last year,” Steinbrenner told ESPN News Services and other outlets.  (Roster Resource projects the Yankees’ at a little under $203MM in dollars, though at just over $217MM in terms of luxury tax value.)

“I think we’ve definitely got a better club Opening Day than we did opening day last year, particularly in pitching, which is my biggest area of concern,” Steinbrenner said.  In regards to the argument that the Yankees’ enormous revenues should necessitate a league-high payroll, Steinbrenner also pointed to the team’s high costs, as well as future money that is being earmarked to retain members of its young core.  That said, Steinbrenner also didn’t rule out the possibility of more notable additions: “I’m never done until I’m done, and that’s usually not until Opening Day.  Proposals come to me every day with these guys, between the analytics guys and the pro scouting guys, and I’m going to consider every single one of them.”

  • Under GM Mike Elias, the revamped Orioles’ front office has taken a big step towards modern statistical analysis, though some seeds towards this direction were planted last summer before Elias was hired.  As Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun notes, several young pitchers acquired by the O’s last summer were obtained from teams (such as the Dodgers, Braves, and Yankees) that have already embraced analytics, leaving the prospects already well-versed in modern data and eager to learn more.  “I’m big into the new analytics and stuff like that, so I like to see the data that I produce, I guess, with how my pitches play off each other,” said right-hander Dean Kremer, one of the youngsters Baltimore acquired from Los Angeles in the Manny Machado trade in July.

Gary Sanchez "Healthy" After Shoulder Surgery

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  • The Yankees’ Gary Sanchez is also coming off surgery, having undergone an offseason procedure on his left (non-throwing) shoulder. Sanchez is now “healthy,” per general manager Brian Cashman (via George A. King III of the New York Post), but the Yanks will mimic the Giants in being cautious with their prized backstop this spring. The 26-year-old Sanchez joined Posey among the majors’ elite catchers from 2017-18, though the former’s now looking to bounce back from a shockingly rough season. Sanchez bombed at the plate, hitting .186/.291/.406 (89 wRC+) in 374 trips, and also drew the ire of fans and media for leading the American League in passed balls (18).

Fallout From The J.T. Realmuto Trade

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Following a merciful coda to the offseason’s most protracted soap opera – a fine Philly offer, agreed upon Thursday, that finally plucked former Marlin catcher J.T. Realmuto from the clutches of South Beach – each of the oft-snubbed clubs offered their final say.

We’ll start in Atlanta, in whose court the Realmuto ball seemed to linger longest – indeed, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the team needed only to surrender two from the group of Austin Riley, Cristian Pache, and one top pitching prospect (of which Atlanta has several: each of Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, Touki Toussaint, Bryse Wilson, Kyle Wright, and Joey Wentz are top 100 prospects in at least one major outlet). Ozzie Albies, said to be an essential part of any Realmuto deal with Atlanta, was never a demanded centerpiece, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Though certainly a substantial return, it’s a package that can’t be said, by any reasonable analysis, to be one that would have stripped the farm of the suddenly-conservative Braves to the bone.

The ask of the Dodgers, ever-cautious themselves, was two from a group of Dustin May, Keibert Ruiz, Gavin Lux, and Will Smith, per Heyman, in the same tweet. Ruiz and Smith, both catchers, likely won’t ever be on the field together at Chavez Ravine, and some outlets ranked neither May nor Lux inside the top 100. Both Heyman and Rosenthal concede that Cody Bellinger was the prize on which Miami initially laid its eyes, but it appears the team quickly swiveled to less-established names in the weeks to follow.

Rosenthal confirms earlier reports that the Fish first coveted outfielder Michael Conforto or Amed Rosario from the Mets, and adds that the team also needed a “top shortstop prospect,” presumably Andres Gimenez, to be added to the deal. It doesn’t appear the club pivoted to other names after the Mets balked, likely owing to the thinned-out version of the late-offseason Mets farm.

From the Yankees, the club did seek Gary Sanchez and Miguel Andujar, per Rosenthal, but only part of a “larger deal” that would obviously have included additional pieces. The Bombers were understandably reluctant to trade either, and the wheat of the Yankee farm – stocked mostly with high-upside, low-level types – wouldn’t have been enough to secure Realmuto’s services. The reported three-team with the Mets that would have sent Noah Syndergaard to New York was bandied about, but a copacetic swap was “never close.”

Cincinnati was both late to the fore and hesitant to move any of its top three prospects, per Rosenthal, and it doesn’t appear a deal was close there, either. Perhaps surprisingly, given the intense scrutiny of the talks, both the Twins and White Sox were “in the mix,” though prospective returns and/or offers are still in the dark.

In the end, Miami seems more than content with its return. The Fish regarded Will Stewart, the trade’s third piece, as Philadelphia’s second-best pitching prospect, per Rosenthal, ahead of near-unanimous top-100 hurler Adonis Medina, righty Spencer Howard, who placed 52nd on Keith Law’s list, and lefty JoJo Romero (66th overall, per Law). Sixto Sanchez, of course, has a decent shot to be an ace, and it’s certainly true that the club could reap more value in Jorge Alfaro alone than it would in the next two seasons with Realmuto behind the dish. The oft-pilloried asks, long said to far outstrip the two-year value of the game’s premier offseason trade target, were, in most respects, perfectly reasonable, and may have quickly been met in eras bygone. This, though, is the time for prospect hoarding, an age in which the control is treasured above all else, and those with even the slightest chance to be stars are stashed deep away, brought out only for the most earnest of window shoppers.

Giants Have “Talked About” Pursuing Jacoby Ellsbury Trade

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The Giants have at least “talked about” swinging a deal with the Yankees involving outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Twitter links). Details of any negotiations remain unknown, as is the seriousness of the Giants’ interest.

Given Ellsbury’s cost, and the fact that he missed all of the 2018 season, the concept would only conceivably make sense if it involved a big, bad contract going back east. The Giants certainly do have some underperforming deals on the books, including Johnny Cueto ($68MM over three years, including buyout on 2022 option), Jeff Samardzija ($36MM over two years), Brandon Belt ($48MM over three years), Mark Melancon ($28MM over two years), and Evan Longoria ($61.5MM over four years, including buyout on 2023 option and excluding portion owed by the Rays).

Olney speculates that Cueto might make sense as a return piece, so long as the sides could even up the anticipated money somehow. Ellsbury is still owed just over $47MM over the next two seasons, including a buyout in a 2021 option. In theory, Ellsbury would step into the Giants’ barren outfield mix, assuming he’s able to get healthy, while the Yanks would collect insurance proceeds on Cueto until he’s ready to return from Tommy John surgery. (Ellsbury’s contract is also insured to some extent; the Yanks reportedly collected on it last year.)

It’s worth adding that the competitive balance tax hits for both players are quite similar, as both check in just under $22MM. That’s a key consideration for both of these teams, each of which is seemingly attempting to stay beneath the luxury line.

While there’s arguably some outward appeal to the concept — which, to reiterate, was presented only as a hypothetical — it seems like a questionable idea from the Giants’ perspective. Ellsbury was fading hard even before he missed all of 2018. While he was still a useful player, he likely profiles at best as a heavily utilized platoon man at this stage. At 35 years of age, Ellsbury comes with limited upside. Cueto had certainly not been at his best even before going under the knife, but he threw 219 2/3 innings of 2.79 ERA ball in 2016 and is still a few days away from his 33rd birthday. While the Giants might well like to take a shot on Ellsbury as a veteran piece, it seems much likelier that Cueto will end up returning something close to the value of his remaining earnings. With three pending free agents in the current rotation, the Giants will surely have a use for him, too. Perhaps it’s fair to think, then, that the Yanks would have to sweeten such a deal with young talent.

It’s interesting to wonder whether other permutations could instead be pursued. Samardzija might give the Yankees some desired rotation depth and could be an interesting candidate to work in a long relief role. He comes with a lesser tax hit of $18MM, but perhaps the deal could include a veteran reliever and deliver more young talent back to the Giants. There are certainly plenty of ways to sketch out tax-neutral scenarios, though at the end of the day it all depends just how interested the Giants really are in having Ellsbury on their roster — and how motivated the Yankees are to send him out. And the veteran outfielder will also have a say himself, as he enjoys full no-trade protection.

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