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Rookie Radar: NL West

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MLBTR’s Jeff Todd has already run through the American League Central and the American League West in previewing some of the interesting young talent that could surface in the Majors this season. We’ll tackle the NL West next — a particularly interesting division given the enviable bevy of young talent that has been cultivated by both the Dodgers and Padres. Los Angeles and San Diego have two of the game’s best systems, but there are varying degrees of high-end talent bubbling to the surface for all five NL West clubs…

Arizona Diamondbacks

Jon Duplantier is a former top 100 prospect whose debut effort in 2019 was slowed by shoulder troubles. He notched a 4.42 ERA and 34-to-18 K/BB ratio in 36 2/3 innings when on the roster, though he was optioned to Triple-A five times. There’s no room in Arizona’s rotation at the moment, but Duplantier and his career 2.54 minor league ERA with 10.5 K/9 will be one of the first lines of defense should a need arise. Righty Kevin Ginkel also got his feet wet in the big leagues and, after posting a 1.48 ERA and a 28-to-9 K/BB ratio in 24 1/3 innings of relief, should have the inside track on a bullpen spot whenever play resumes.

Elsewhere in the D-backs’ system loom catcher Daulton Varsho, infielder Andy Young, first baseman Seth Beer and right-hander J.B. Bukauskas. Varsho is a homegrown talent who’s considered to be among baseball’s 100 best prospects, although the presence of Carson Kelly in the big leagues puts a roadblock in his path to Phoenix. He’s yet to play above Double-A, but a big Triple-A showing and an injury to Kelly and/or Stephen Vogt could propel Varsho to the bigs.

Young, Bukauskas and Beer were all acquired in trades — Young alongside Weaver and Kelly in the Paul Goldschmidt swap and the others in the Zack Greinke blockbuster. Arizona’s infield is stacked at the moment, but Young can play anywhere in the infield, so he’s a nice depth piece … who happened to bash 21 homers and slug .611 in 277 Triple-A plate appearances last year. Beer showed big pop of his own in a pitcher-friendly Double-A setting last season. Bukauskas will be looking for a rebound after a poor showing in Double-A.

Colorado Rockies

Rox fans have been waiting since 2015 to get a good look at Brendan Rodgers, the No. 3 overall pick in that year’s draft. Rodgers has ranked among the game’s elite prospects each season since being drafted, and he finally made his big league debut in 2019 … only to undergo shoulder surgery after all of 81 plate appearances. He might open the year in the minors, but Rodgers will be looming in the event that Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson struggle or get hut. Either way, if he’s healthy, Rodgers should force the team’s hand.

Elsewhere on the roster, expect to see Sam Hilliard play a prominent role in the outfield mix. He received a similarly sized cup of coffee to Rodgers and made the most of it, raking at a .273/.356/.649 clip. Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl are locked into two spots, but Hilliard will vie for at-bats with Raimel Tapia as Ian Desmond slips further into a reserve role. Yonathan Daza could also factor in as a bench option, depending on the health of those ahead of him on the depth chart.

Someone asked me in this week’s MLBTR chat who might step up in the event of a Nolan Arenado trade, and the club isn’t short on options — including Arenado’s own cousin, Josh Fuentes. He’s already 27, though, and had a rough showing in Triple-A this past season. More intriguing options include Tyler Nevin — yes, Phil’s son — and Colton Welker.

Southpaw Ben Bowden could emerge in the bullpen, and given the uncertainty at the back of the big league rotation — Chi Chi Gonzalez might’ve been the favorite in the fifth spot — we could see either of righty Ashton Goudeau or Antonio Santos get a look.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Gavin Lux, one of the game’s top 1o prospects, will get the opportunity to claim second base as his home for the foreseeable future. He didn’t do much in 82 MLB plate appearances last season, but if you want a laugh, check out Lux’s line in 49 Triple-A games: .392/.478/.719 with 13 home runs, 18 doubles and four triples in 232 plate appearances.

The Dodgers have an embarrassment of wealth in terms of young pitching, headlined by righty Dustin May, who’s already posted a 3.63 ERA and 32-to-5 K/BB ratio in 34 2/3 MLB frames. Fellow righty Tony Gonsolin impressed in his own ’19 debut, and the Dodgers added some triple-digit heat to the bullpen by acquiring Brusdar Graterol from the Twins. Behind that trio? Josiah Gray, acquired in the Homer Bailey salary dump with the Reds, posted a 2.28 ERA with 147 punchouts in 130 Double-A innings in ’19.

Catcher Keibert Ruiz is somewhat blocked by fellow youngster Will Smith, but he could be in line for a promotion should Smith sustain an injury. If there’s an injury (or multiple injuries) elsewhere on the roster, any of corner infielder/outfielder Edwin Rios, center fielder DJ Peters or Swiss army knife Zach McKinstry could get the call. Rios hit well in a limited debut last season, and McKinstry is cut from the Chris Taylor/Enrique Hernandez cloth, having appeared at shortstop, second base, third base and all three outfield slots in recent seasons. (Sometimes it feels like the Dodgers grow these guys on trees.)

San Diego Padres

You won’t find many (any?) organizations with a more tantalizing pairing of pitching prospects than lefty MacKenzie Gore and righty Luis Patino. Either or both could conceivably reach the Majors in 2020. Gore is particularly touted, generally ranking inside the game’s top 10 overall prospects after posting a sub-2.00 ERA in 20 starts between Class-A Advanced and Double-A.

Center fielder Taylor Trammell still hasn’t tapped into his raw power, but his tantalizing package of tools landed him among the game’s top 100 prospects for a third straight offseason. The Padres’ outfield has turned over in a major way, and while Trammell might need a big showing in Triple-A to force the organization’s hand, he’s not far off after spending all of 2019 in Double-A.

The Padres have plenty of players with rookie eligibility who briefly saw the big leagues this past season. Righty Michel Baez and lefty Adrian Morejon aren’t quite on that same level as the Gore/Patino combo, but they were both high-profile international signings — Baez commanding a $3MM bonus and Morejon landing $11MM — and have both been top 100 entrants themselves. (Morejon still is.) Righty Ronald Bolanos also commanded a seven-figure bonus (just north of $2MM) and briefly debuted in ’19. Reliever David Bednar was sharp in Double-A and logged 11 MLB frames with San Diego, too.

If there’s a particularly intriguing prospect here, it could be Jake Cronenworth. He’s not considered a premium prospect, but the 26-year-old posted a .949 OPS in Triple-A with the Rays last year and has been developing as a two-way player. He’s more in the Michael Lorenzen mold, so he might not get two-way designation anytime soon thanks to MLB’s bizarrely stringent eligibility requirements — essentially, only Shohei Ohtani or Brendan McKay could qualify — but he brings a unique skill set to the table all the same.

San Francisco Giants

Expect Mauricio Dubon to get a long look, perhaps even in center field. The former Brewers/Red Sox middle infield prospect played there earlier in spring and could be an outfield option, depending on how the team uses Wilmer Flores and (if he makes the roster) Yolmer Sanchez. Slugger Jaylin Davis didn’t hit much in a 17-game September cameo, but he cranked 35 long balls between Double-A and Triple-A, which should get him a look on a power-starved Giants roster.

Logan Webb could end up as the team’s fifth starter — particularly now that Tyler Beede will miss the 2020 season. Webb didn’t fare well in eight MLB starts a year ago and has been hobbled by injuries since being a fourth-round pick in 2014, but he shoved with a 1.84 ERA across three minor league levels in 2019 prior to his promotion.

The big question for Giants fans is, of course, when will they get their look at Buster Posey’s heir apparent? Joey Bart, the No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft, has flat-out raked at every stop and is a rare, fast-rising catching prospect. He won’t turn 24 until next offseason, but Bart is a .284/.343/.532 hitter in the minors — including a .316/.368/.554 effort in a 22-game showing at Double-A last year.

Extension Candidates: NL West

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We don’t really know whether or to what extent extension talks will continue during the coronavirus hiatus. But as I wrote recently, it seems reasonable to think they’ll be explored. Some may already have advanced nearly to completion before the global pandemic intervened.

While we may have to wait to learn who the targets are and see what deals get done, there’s a silver lining: more time for rampant speculation! Okay, we’re not going to speculate here; rather, we’ll tick through some interesting possibilities on paper. Remember, we’ve seen an increasing prevalence of deals with less-experienced players (even some without any MLB service) and with new player types (early-career relievers and utilitymen).

In the present MLB environment, value is king and the old forms are fading. We’ve already checked in on the NL East and NL Central. Here are some names to chew on from the NL West …

Diamondbacks

The Snakes have managed to control costs, compete, and build their farm system all at the same time. It’s a tricky balancing act to manage over any length of time. And extensions are a key component. Ketel Marte, Nick Ahmed, Eduardo Escobar, and David Peralta are already playing on extensions. There are some other candidates on the roster as well.

Several Arizona veterans are conceivable candidates, not that any seems particularly likely to agree to terms. Hurler Robbie Ray is heading into a walk year, but comes with a pretty wide risk/upside spread. Recently acquired outfielder Starling Marte is already 31 years of age, so the club probably won’t be in a rush to work out a new deal with two years of control remaining. Reliever Archie Bradley is also two years from the open market; an extension could make sense in his case. The team will be looking at a big arbitration bill next year if Bradley racks up saves, while he’d surely be open to eliminating some personal health/performance risk.

The younger class of players contains some rather intriguing possibilities. Catcher Carson Kelly and starter Luke Weaver are both entering their final pre-arbitration season (the former via Super Two status). Though 2019 trade deadline addition Zac Gallen isn’t even close to arbitration, it could be an opportune moment to get something done.

Dodgers

When the Dodgers acquired superstar outfielder Mookie Betts, they knew they were giving up significant value for just one season of performance. Now, with the season on hold, there’s newfound uncertainty for all involved — particularly given that it’s not even clear yet whether Betts will hit the open market as expected this coming fall. After a few happy weeks together this spring, could the sides take advantage of the lull to discuss a longer-term relationship?

There’s no evidence of that happening, but it’d be a potential coup for the Dodgers. It would also be extremely costly. No doubt the team is at least as intrigued by the idea of finding some savings by locking in superstar slugger Cody Bellinger. Trouble is, the 24-year-old just landed a whopping $11.5MM contract as a Super Two. His arbitration eligibility could easily set an overall record and he’ll expect a long-term deal to reflect that and pay at a premium rate for any future free-agent campaigns.

There was a time when Corey Seager would’ve seemed an obvious extension target, but his place in the team’s plans is uncertain after some injury-limited campaigns. More interesting at this point are some of the newest members of the L.A. roster. Backstop Will Smith and infielder Gavin Lux each carry huge promise and some MLB experience. Though the Dodgers haven’t led the league with aggressive early-career extensions, both of these players are sensible targets.

Giants

Yikes. It’s not a good sign to see a roster that lacks for extension candidates — unless, perhaps, many young players have already agreed to deals. In this case, the Giants have a combination of veterans playing out underperforming contracts and largely un-established younger players who don’t really seem in line for any long-term commitment.

If you squint hard enough, you could see Mauricio Dubon as a candidate if the team has really fallen in love since acquiring him last summer. But that’s probably unnecessarily aggressive. Otherwise, basically every conceivable possibility has too many areas of concern to warrant serious consideration. Perhaps the situation will look different this time next year — someone might step up with a big season; top prospects like Joey Bart or Heliot Ramos may turn into candidates for early-career extensions — but it’s hard to see much reason for talks at the moment.

Padres

The ideal outcome would be to secure the services of Fernando Tatis Jr. with a deal along the lines of the Braves’ pact with Ronald Acuna Jr.. The Friars will probably have to keep dreaming about that team-friendly arrangement, but there has been some reporting indicating the sides could hold talks. Tatis himself said in late February that nothing was cooking, but there’s every reason to keep a conversation going if there’s mutual interest. Righty Chris Paddack could certainly also be a candidate as well, though perhaps the added risks on the pitching side will keep the sides apart for the time being.

There are other younger players that could hold appeal in the right situation. On the position player side, Trent Grisham, Franchy Cordero, and Francisco Mejia could be considered. And among pitchers, you could easily see the merit of locking in Dinelson Lamet or Joey Lucchesi.

Oh, and the Friars do have one notable veteran in an obvious extension stance: closer Kirby Yates. There’s reason to believe the sides have some interest, but it’s not clear how likely it is a deal will come together. Yates is a late-emerging star reliever who’s two days from his 33rd birthday and one season away from free agency. His age limits his overall contractual upside, but he was absurdly dominant in 2019. It’s certainly possible to imagine both player and team seeing the sense in a deal.

Rockies

The Rox already have long-term control over German Marquez and Nolan Arenado. So … why not add Jon Gray and Trevor Story, making a strong core four over the long haul? Well, it’s not a simple situation for the Colorado organization. Trouble is, some brutal fortune in the free agent market has left little financial flexibility and a top-heavy roster. We can’t rule out deals for Gray and/or Story, but they’ll both cost a ton and would be hard to pull off — particularly given the ongoing drama with Arenado.

That’s not to say the Rockies couldn’t still look to other ways of achieving value. In particular, outfielders David Dahl and Sam Hilliard could be interesting targets. The former has had quite a few injuries and the latter has only spent about a month in the majors, but those factors might also drive down the price tag and with it the contractual upside. Otherwise, you could perhaps see some daylight for a deal with reliever Carlos Estevez if the Rox are fully sold on his 2019 showing. But the team already made a deal with its best reliever (Scott Oberg) and probably doesn’t need any more long-term bullpen entanglements.

Rebound Candidate: Kevin Gausman

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While Kevin Gausman has never developed into the top-of-the-rotation starter many envisioned, he carved out a role as a solid innings eater in his first five MLB seasons. Between 2016-18, Gausman averaged 183.1 innings with a 4.07 ERA/4.30 FIP between the Orioles and Braves.

Then the wheels fell off in the first half of 2019. The righty started his first full season in Atlanta with a 6.21 ERA in 13 starts; he hit the shelf for a month-plus with plantar fasciitis in his right foot June 11. Gausman would make just three more starts for the Braves, who waived him in August. The non-contending Reds claimed him for the stretch run.

It was Gausman’s time in Cincinnati that offers the most hope for a rebound. With a full rotation, manager David Bell deployed him solely in short stints (14 relief appearances and one ’start’ as a two-inning opener). While he managed just a 4.03 ERA in that time, the now 29-year-old racked up an impressive 29:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Gausman’s midseason bullpen bump wasn’t at the level of someone like Drew Pomeranz’s, who struck out nearly half the batters he faced as a reliever and parlayed it into a four-year deal. It was, however, enough to remind us Gausman’s nowhere near as bad as he looked at the start of last season.

In fact, much of Gausman’s abysmal results in Atlanta can be chalked up to bad luck. Hitters put up an unsustainable .345 BABIP against him in his time as a starting pitcher. And those batted balls tended to fall in at the least opportune times. As a Brave in 2019, Gausman faced 53 batters with two outs and runners on base. He struck out 18 of them, but opponents hit .406 on balls in play in those spots. If just a handful of those batted balls had found defenders’ gloves, his ERA would’ve looked quite a bit better. Luck isn’t to blame for all of Gausman’s trouble in Atlanta. He did allow more hard, airborne contact than ever before, which is a bit worrisome. Nevertheless, it’s fair to point out things beyond his control contributed to his struggles.

The rotation-needy Giants signed up for a potential Gausman rebound this offseason. He’ll get another crack at cementing himself as a rotation piece at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. He doesn’t throw as hard as he once did, but he still sits 94+ MPH on his fastball. That pairs with a knockout splitter that’s allowed him to handle left-handed hitters throughout his career. At the very least, he should be well-equipped for the three batter minimum if he ends up back in the bullpen at some point.

Surely, though, SF is hoping for a successful return to the rotation for the still-young hurler. Perhaps the organization can unlock further upside by coaxing a usable breaking ball. David O’Brien of the Athletic reported last summer Gausman had toyed with a curveball while rehabbing from the aforementioned injury, but he was almost exclusively fastball-splitter in the big leagues. Even a mere return to form would position Gausman well when he hits the open market next offseason. The Giants don’t appear likely to contend in 2020, so the righty could find himself changing uniforms for the third straight season.

Giants Option Shaun Anderson, Steven Duggar To Triple-A

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The Giants have optioned right-hander Shaun Anderson and outfielder Steven Duggar to Triple-A Sacramento, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic was among those to report. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said neither player positioned himself in spring training to make the Giants’ Opening Day roster, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle relays.

The 25-year-old Anderson got off to a respectable start as a rookie last season, but he was battered in the second half, leading to a 5.44 ERA/4.77 FIP across 96 innings. Anderson managed uninspiring strikeout and walk numbers along the way, fanning 6.56 per nine with 3.56 BB/9. While Anderson still entered the spring hoping to grab a spot in the Giants’ bullpen, he’ll have to earn his way back via the minors in 2020, if a baseball season even occurs.

Duggar, 26, endured a rough 2019 season, in part because of left shoulder issues. He wound up with a meek .234/.278/.341 batting line in 281 plate appearances, thereby offsetting quality numbers in center and right (plus-6 Defensive Runs Saved, 5 Outs Above Average, plus-1.2 Ultimate Zone Rating). As someone who was a well-regarded prospect during his younger days, perhaps Duggar will eventually emerge as the Giants’ answer in center. In the near term, though, they could turn to offseason minor league signing Billy Hamilton up the middle.

Tyler Beede To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Giants right-hander Tyler Beede will undergo Tommy John surgery tomorrow, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters this evening.  Beede was diagnosed with a UCL sprain and a flexor strain two weeks ago, and was scheduled for a second opinion last week.

The 26-year-old now faces a recovery timeline of 12-15 months, which will keep him from participating in whatever becomes of the 2020 season and cost him likely at least a couple of months of the 2021 season.  The delayed start to the 2020 season wasn’t a chief factor in Beede’s decision to undergo surgery, Zaidi told The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly and other media members, since Beede was told by doctors that he could face more elbow discomfort if he tried to rehab his injury without a proper procedure.

It’s a discouraging setback for Beede, a former 14th-overall pick (in 2014) who had yet to deliver on that potential over 124 2/3 innings, but was a strong contender to win a spot in San Francisco’s Opening Day rotation after throwing three scoreless innings during Spring Training action.  It’s hard to figure how the rotation picture might look if and when the season gets underway, but as it stood when Spring Training was halted, Dereck Rodriguez, Trevor Oaks, Trevor Cahill, and Logan Webb were the top contenders for that fifth starter’s job.

The majority of Beede’s big league exposure came last season, when he posted a 5.08 ERA, 2.46 K/BB rate, and 8.7 K/9 over 117 innings.  Like many pitchers in 2019, Beede struggled to limit home runs, allowing a 1.69 HR/9, but his larger issue was with hard contact in general.  As per Statcast, Beede allowed hard-hit contract on 43.7% of his balls put into play, with an average 90.8mph exit velocity — both numbers landed in the bottom-fourth percentile of all pitchers.

Butterfly Effects & The Jason Heyward Signing

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’Twas the winter of 2015-16. Jason Heyward wasn’t the best-available player in a well-stocked free agent class. But he was a high-quality performer and still tantalizingly young (26). While hardly a traditional corner outfield star due to his middling power, Heyward was well-established as a quality hitter and superlative defender and baserunner.

The debate raged long before the offseason arrived: how much can you really pay for a player like this? All agreed he was good. But the traditionalists howled at the notion of a right fielder who hadn’t even hit forty home runs over the prior three seasons landing a premium contract. The analytically minded countered that, well, runs are runs regardless of how they’re added or prevented. Heyward was a 6.9 rWAR / 5.6 fWAR performer in 2015. With exceptional glovework and a steady OBP, Heyward seemed to be a high-floor player who might have some ceiling as well.

[RELATED: Jason Heyward & Chris Davis Have Two Of The Worst Free Agent Contracts … In Different Ways]

We predicted that Heyward would earn $200MM over a full decade — second-most in a rather well-stocked free agent class. That didn’t quite happen, but the real deal was actually more favorable to Heyward than the one we had guessed. He landed $184MM over an eight-year term and also got two opt-out opportunities (which was worth something at the time the deal was struck, even if they weren’t exercised). The deal delivered a nice $23MM AAV over quite a lengthy term.

Now that we’re all reacquainted with the contract as it turned out … let’s try to remind ourselves of the state of play in the market when it was struck. At the time of the pact, there were hints that the Cubs may not have been the high bidder. The Nationals supposedly had the top offer on the table, though we may presume it’d have been deferred. The incumbent Cardinals were also known to be in pursuit. And the Angels and Giants were still involved in rumors right up until the end.

So … what would things have looked like if Heyward had landed elsewhere?

Nationals

Whoa … would the Nats have hoisted the commisioner’s trophy last fall had they signed Heyward? That’s obviously not something that can be assessed fairly given the innumerable butterfly effects potentially at play. But the counter-factual does actually present a pretty similar situation to what actually happened in 2019. In right field, the Nationals got solid but hardly otherworldly work out of Adam Eaton — another left-handed hitter whose skillset is rather similar to that of Heyward.

More interesting to consider is the fact that the Nats probably wouldn’t ever have dealt for Eaton had they already acquired Heyward. Eaton landed in D.C. after the team missed on its effort to acquire Chris Sale for the White Sox. The swap cost the Nationals pitchers Lucas Giolito (reimagine 2019 with him on the staff), Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning. Of course, Eaton has been much more affordable than Heyward this whole time. Who knows if the Nats would’ve inked Patrick Corbin last winter had Heyward been on the books.

Ultimately, the Washington organization has deep enough pockets that it would’ve been just fine with an underperforming $23MM salary on the books — not unlike the Cubs. At the same time, also not unlike the Cubs, the Nats have been focused on getting and staying just under the luxury tax line, so this deal would’ve been a constant nuisance that would’ve interfered with any number of lower-cost veteran signings and acquisitions over the past several seasons.

Cardinals

Much like the Nats, the Cards eventually made a big deal for a somewhat similar player. One winter after missing on Heyward (despite reportedly offering as much or more as the arch-rival Cubbies), the Redbirds reversed the talent flow by inking former Chicago center fielder Dexter Fowler. The switch-hitting Fowler wasn’t nearly as expensive as Heyward, but his own five-year, $82.5MM deal has worked out about as poorly. The Fowler contract probably wouldn’t have been signed had Heyward been around, but this is probably to the Cardinals’ benefit since the Heyward deal features a bigger and longer hit. Perhaps the Cubs would’ve ended up retaining Fowler had they missed on Heyward. You could argue over the details, but it’s probably not far from a wash.

Of course, the Cards went without either of those players in that 2016 campaign … which helped open the door to the memorable shooting star of Jeremy Hazelbaker. It’s tough to say whether there were significant long-term effects on the way the Cards’ outfield picture developed. Going without Heyward in 2016 opened more playing time for outfielders Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty and, to a lesser extent, a pre-breakout Tommy Pham. Perhaps one or more would’ve been shipped out of town earlier had Heyward been retained. Maybe Pham’s breakout would’ve occurred elsewhere, thus eliminating his successive trades (to the Rays and then to the Padres), though it’s impossible to say that with any degree of confidence.

Angels

We don’t know whether the Halos were really strong pursuers of Heyward, but it’s worth considering what might’ve been. The club ended up foregoing any big free agent splashes that winter. (It had already acquired Andrelton Simmons.) Adding Heyward surely wouldn’t have forestalled the string of four-straight losing seasons, given the way he has played. But it might’ve prevented the Angels from eventually trading for and then extending Justin Upton. And it certainly could’ve gummed up this winter’s signing of Anthony Rendon.

Giants

Likewise, it’s not entirely clear that the Giants were heavily involved in bidding up Heyward’s price, but the team clearly had some real interest. The San Francisco org splashed a lot of regrettable cash that winter regardless. It had already inked Jeff Samardzija and ended up signing Johnny Cueto after Heyward landed with the Cubs. The Giants did find a rather direct alternative to Heyward, inking Denard Span to a three-year, $31MM pact. That didn’t quite go as hoped but was hardly a significant disaster. Suffice to say that having Heyward on the books would’ve further complicated an already difficult stretch for the organization.

Cubs

Ah, yes. The Cubs. Lauded at the time by some for landing Heyward for less than others would’ve paid — really, the deal was probably right at the market rate, give or take — the Cubbies have obviously not benefited from the signing.

Remember how we started this post? The debate over paying out a non-slugging right fielder. Consider these contemporaneous comments. On the one hand …

On the other …

To some degree, neither turned out to be right. And the lack of power was largely beside the point. Heyward did top twenty long balls in 2019, but he was still an average-or-worse hitter for the fourth-straight year. It was certainly his best offensive season for the Cubs … but also the team’s own worst effort in this four-year span. No, the Cubbies haven’t exactly dominated the National League over the span of this deal, but they did capture that elusive crown in 2016.

So does the World Series justify it? Eh … this isn’t as clean an analysis as the Gleyber Torres-for-Aroldis Chapman “you do what it takes!” situation. Heyward was terrible in 2016 and even worse in the postseason, when he contributed just five hits and a walk over fifty plate appearances.

There’s no two ways about it: the deal hasn’t worked out at all as hoped. Heyward has by all accounts worked hard and been a total class act, as ever. And he has trended back up with the bat, which is somewhat promising with regard to the final three seasons of the deal. But the net return to the Cubs — 7.1 rWAR and 6.0 fWAR — has not remotely justified the outlay.

Anybody that has watched the Chicago organization operate these past two winters can see the effects of this contractual miss. The Cubs have decided not to move past the luxury tax line, so every dollar going to Heyward has been another buck that couldn’t be allocated elsewhere. Of course, the Heyward whiff isn’t the only one that has stung in recent years, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently examined. And it’s worth emphasizing the he’s still just 30 years of age and still capable of contributing. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that he could even morph back into a quality regular. All things considered, this contract certainly didn’t single-handedly obstruct the Cubs’ dynasty-that-wasn’t … but it certainly played a leading role.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

10 NL West Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Seasons

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MLBTR’s preseason series ends with National League West pitchers looking to bounce back in 2020. These 10 talented hurlers are hoping to get off the mat after difficult seasons…

Alex Wood, LHP, Dodgers:

The 29-year-old Wood is back in Los Angeles, where he experienced a great deal of success in 2015-18, after a Murphy’s Law season spent in Cincinnati. A back injury limited Wood to 35 2/3 innings of 5.80 ERA/6.38 FIP pitching last year after Cincinnati acquired him from Los Angeles expecting high-end production. Not unreasonable on the Reds’ part, as Wood had combined for a 3.29 ERA/3.36 FIP with 8.27 K/9, 2.57 BB/9 and a 49.5 percent groundball rate in 803 1/3 innings as a Brave and Dodger from 2013-18. The Dodgers brought him back on a low-risk guarantee ($4MM) in the offseason. They may strike gold if Wood can stay healthy.

Blake Treinen, RHP, Dodgers:

Like his new teammate Wood, Treinen was excellent in the recent past before falling off a cliff last season. Just two years ago, Treinen – then an Athletic – turned in one of the greatest seasons a reliever has ever had. But last year went awry for Treinen, who dealt with multiple injuries and logged subpar numbers. Treinen wound up with a 4.91 ERA/5.14 FIP and 9.05 K/9, 5.68 BB/9 and a 42.8 percent grounder rate over 58 2/3 innings. He lost his job as the A’s closer along the way, and they non-tendered him after the season. The hard-throwing Treinen landed on his feet, though, with a $10MM guarantee from the Dodgers.

Kyle Freeland, LHP, Rockies:

The soft-tossing Freeland was an NL Cy Young candidate back in 2018, so no one could have expected such a miserable showing in 2019. As it turned out, though, Freeland struggled so mightily that the Rockies optioned him to Triple-A at one point in the season. In the majors, he ended up with a brutal 6.73 ERA/5.99 FIP (compared to 2.85/3.67 the prior year) and 6.81 K/9 against 3.36 BB/9 across 104 1/3 innings, averaging fewer than five frames per start along the way. The 26-year-old’s severe drop-off was among the reasons the Rockies went from playoff team in 2018 to bottom-feeding club last season.

Wade Davis, RHP, Rockies:

Speaking of stunning declines from members of Colorado’s pitching staff … Davis continued his descent in 2019. In the second season of a three-year, $52MM contract, the once-untouchable Davis recorded an abysmal 8.65 ERA/5.56 FIP and walked more than six batters per nine over 42 2/3 innings. Davis also rated as one of Statcast’s worst pitchers, finishing toward the bottom of the league in average exit velocity, expected weighted on-base average and strikeout percentage, among other categories.

Johnny Cueto, RHP, Giants:

Even though he only pitched 16 innings last season, it’s tough not to include Cueto on this list. The former ace is hoping for his first full season in a while, as injuries (including Tommy John surgery in 2018) held him to a mere 216 1/3 innings over the previous three years. During his halcyon days, Cueto – now 34 – used to throw around that many innings in a single season. The Giants still owe Cueto $47MM through 2021, so a rebound effort would be all the more welcome for them.

Kevin Gausman, RHP, Giants:

Gausman, whom the Giants added for $9MM in free agency, is in line to join Cueto in their rotation. The hope for the club is that he’ll fare much better than he did in 2019 – a disappointing season for a pitcher who has been consistently respectable. Gausman performed so poorly as a Brave that they placed him on outright waivers in August, but he did turn his season around as a strikeout-heavy reliever in Cincinnati. However, despite 10.03 K/9 against 2.81 BB/9, Gausman could only muster a 5.72 ERA (granted, with a much more encouraging 3.98 FIP) in 102 1/3 frames divided between the two teams.

Dereck Rodriguez, RHP, Giants:

Rodriguez came out of nowhere to serve as one of the most effective rookies in the sport two years, but the dreaded sophomore slump took him down last season. The 27-year-old split 2019 between the Giants’ rotation and bullpen, registering a woeful 5.64 ERA/5.69 FIP (he was at 2.81/3.74 in 2018) in 99 innings. Rodriguez underwhelmed in the strikeout/walk department along the way, putting up 6.45 K/9 with 3.27 BB/9, and lost about a mile per hour on his low-90s fastball. Whether he’ll work more as a starter or reliever is in question heading into the new season, whenever it begins.

Tony Watson, LHP, Giants:

The normally reliable Watson wasn’t quite himself in 2019, in which he tallied career worsts in ERA (4.17), FIP (4.81) and home runs per nine (1.5) through 54 innings. Watson walked just two per nine, and there were no dips in his velocity (93.5 mph) or swinging-strike percentage (12.7), yet he still slumped to the second-lowest K/9 (6.83) of his career. Surprisingly, same-handed hitters – whom he has usually contained – did the most damage against Watson, teeing off on him for a .391 wOBA. In other words, Watson turned the average lefty into Anthony Rizzo. The Giants are banking on a better showing from Watson in 2020, though, as they re-signed him for a $3MM guarantee during the winter.

Trevor Cahill, RHP, Giants:

Cahill is the fifth member of this Giants-heavy list, but this will be his first year with the club. He spent last year with the Angels, who signed him for $9MM after he revived his career with the Athletics as a starter during the previous season. However, Cahill couldn’t carry that renaissance into 2019; he instead spent the majority of the season in the bullpen and logged an ugly 5.98 ERA/6.13 FIP. Compared to 2018, Cahill struck out one fewer batter per nine (7.12 overall) and saw his groundball rate drop by almost 8 percent (45.9). He also yielded a whopping 2.2 homers per nine – up from a paltry .65 the prior season. Now, it remains to be seen whether Cahill will even crack the roster in San Francisco, which signed him to a minor league contract. If he does, it may be as a reliever.

Garrett Richards, RHP, Padres:

Richards has been quite valuable when he has taken the mound. The problem is that appearances from the oft-injured ex-Angel have been rare in recent seasons. He hasn’t even touched the 80-inning mark in a season since 2015, when he amassed a career-high 207 1/3. Richards totaled just 8 2/3 frames last season after returning from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in July 2018. Of course, the Padres knew they’d get little from Richards in 2019 upon signing him to a two-year, $15.5MM pact. They’re hoping the investment pays dividends this season.

Giants Sign Prospect Javier Alexander Francisco

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The Giants have signed shortstop Javier Alexander Francisco, a prospect from the Dominican Republic, as @GiantsProspects first reported (Twitter link; hat tip to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle). The value of the bonus is unknown at this time.

Shea notes that the 16-year-old has been working with former big leaguer Fernando Tatis Sr., who compares Francisco to his son, Padres star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. This comparison seems at least somewhat suspect, given the timing of this agreement. Many well-regarded international prospects have handshake deals worked out in advanced of their eligibility and then sign on the dotted line as soon as the signing period begins each year on July 2. Tatis Jr., for instance, signed with the White Sox on July 2, 2015, receiving a bonus of $700K. If Francisco is indeed at that skill level, he could have theoretically received a larger bonus by waiting another few months until teams would have their bonus pools reset to their full amounts.

Regardless of how Francisco develops personally, this move is consistent with a larger push in the Giants organization to focus on improving their farm system. Since Farhan Zaidi became the president of baseball operations in November of 2018, there has been a greater emphasis on upgrading the talent pipeline that flows into the major league club. Baseball America recently ranked the Giants farm system as the 14th best in the majors, after it checked in at 28th going into the 2019 season.

6 NL West Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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Our preseason series focusing on notable hitters and pitchers hoping to rebound from less-than-ideal 2019 outings wraps up in the National League West. We’ll start with six hitters who enjoyed productive 2018 campaigns before falling short last season…

Manny Machado, 3B, Padres:

By no means did the 27-year-old Machado perform poorly in 2019, his first season as a Padre. He just didn’t offer the type of production the team likely expected when it signed him to a then-record free-agent contract worth $300MM over 10 years. Whereas the four-time All-Star thrived with the Orioles and Dodgers the year before he joined the Friars, he has been more good than great in San Diego so far. Across 661 trips to the plate last season, Machado batted .256/.334/.462 – enough for a 108 wRC+ (he was at 131 in 2018). He did mash 32 home runs and finish in the majors’ 87th percentile in average exit velocity, but Machado struck out in nearly 5 percent more plate appearances compared to 2018. Furthermore, according to Statcast, Machado’s hard-hit percentage fell by just over 4 percent.

Jurickson Profar, 2B, Padres:

The former can’t-miss prospect finally looked to be turning a corner at the major league level in 2018, his last year with the Rangers. Unfortunately, though, Profar’s output tanked in his lone season with the Athletics in 2019. The 27-year-old switch-hitter could only muster a .218/.301/.410 line (89 wRC+) and 1.3 fWAR in 518 PA, and Statcast rated him near the bottom of the league in several important metrics. As a second baseman, Profar garnered all negative reviews (minus-15 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-3 Outs Above Average, minus-1 Ultimate Zone Rating). Still, the Padres are taking a chance on a bounce-back year for Profar, whom they acquired in a winter trade. The move reunited him with ex-Rangers executive and current Padres general manager A.J. Preller.

David Peralta, OF, Diamondbacks:

Peralta had a terrific year in 2018, smacking 31 home runs and accounting for 3.9 fWAR, but a nagging right shoulder injury prevented him from a proper encore last season. The 32-year-old wound up with just 12 homers in 423 plate appearances, in which he registered an overall line barely above average (.275/.343/.461 – good for a 107 wRC+), saw his isolated power number fall by 37 points and his expected weighted on-base average plummet by 49 points. Nevertheless, the Diamondbacks are giving Peralta the benefit of the doubt, evidenced by the two-year, $22MM extension they handed him in January.

Brandon Crawford, SS, Giants:

Crawford entered last year with six straight seasons of at least 2.0 fWAR, but he dropped to 0.4 in that category in 2019. Crawford hit just .228/.304/.350 (74 wRC+) in 560 PA, and even his well-regarded defense declined. For the first time in his career, the 33-year-old graded negatively in both DRS (minus-4) and UZR (minus-0.4). Not reassuring for the Giants, who still owe Crawford $30MM through 2021.

Enrique Hernandez, UTIL, Dodgers:

The versatile Hernandez was quite effective in 2018, during which he posted 3.2 fWAR, but that number checked in at a far less impressive 1.2 last season. The problem? A massive decline in offensive production. Hernandez’s wRC+ (88) represented a 30-point fall, while his OPS (.715; .237/.304/.411) lost 91 points. It didn’t help that Hernandez endured a 4-plus percent increase in strikeouts and a 3 percent decrease in walks.

Daniel Murphy, 1B, Rockies:

Count Murphy as another recent free-agent signing gone awry for the Rockies, who inked him to a two-year, $24MM contract in December 2019. Year 1, perhaps the weakest offensive season of his career, couldn’t have gone much worse for Murphy. The 34-year-old ’s .279/.328/.452 line doesn’t look terrible on paper, but when adjusted for ballpark, it only amounted to a wRC+ of 86. Murphy also had a miserable season in terms of Statcast output and recorded a negative fWAR (minus-0.2) for the first time ever.

Yasiel Puig Rumors: Marlins, Giants

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Free agency is not at the forefront of baseball fans’ minds right now, but there’s still at least one rather talented player without a job. That’s 29-year-old outfielder Yasiel Puig, who – despite a mostly solid career of production – has encountered a tepid market since last season ended. Puig did reportedly turn down a one-year, $10MM offer from a National League team in recent months, but it’s unclear which club presented that proposal to Puig. The belief, however, is that the Marlins made him an offer at some point, Jon Heyman of MLB Network said on the latest edition of the Big Time Baseball Podcast.

While the Marlins may have tried to sign Puig during the winter, it appears they’re out on him now after adding fellow veteran OFer Corey Dickerson on a two-year, $17.5MM contract back in December. Nevertheless, all hope isn’t necessarily lost for Puig, whom some teams are still considering, Heyman says. The Giants are among the clubs on the list, reports Heyman, who expects Puig to sign somewhere this month (Heyman stated that before the coronavirus forced MLB to temporarily shut down operations Thursday, so it could affect Puig’s chances).

This is not the first time there has been a Puig-Giants connection since last season concluded. As of February, though, negotiations between the two sides had reportedly died down after the Giants brought back old pal Hunter Pence. He’s now set to team with Mike Yastrzemski and Alex Dickerson as the Giants’ top corner outfield choices, though those two can’t match Puig in overall track record, nor do they hit from the same side (Puig’s a righty, while Yastrzemski and Dickerson are lefties). Pence, also a righty, outhit Puig last year, but he may be more of a reserve now that he’s back in the DH-less National League.

Should an agreement between Puig and the Giants eventually come together, he’d reunite with president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and new manager Gabe Kapler. Both Zaidi and Kapler were Dodgers employees during part of Puig’s run in Los Angeles from 2013-18. Puig was largely a productive (albeit polarizing) Dodger, though his output at the plate dropped off last year between the Reds and Indians, which is one reason he remains without a team as we approach the middle of March.

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