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Poll: Paul Goldschmidt’s Future

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Even though he still has another year of team control remaining, superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt – a Diamondback since they chose him in the eighth round of the 2009 draft – may be in his final days with the club. While the path the Diamondbacks will take during the offseason is uncertain, general manager Mike Hazen hasn’t ruled out a full rebuild. Arizona’s in a bind in terms of payroll, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained earlier this week, and set to lose two of its best players to free agency in left-hander Patrick Corbin and center fielder A.J. Pollock.

In the event those factors do lead to a teardown in the desert, the logical move may be to at least gauge interest in the 31-year-old Goldschmidt. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported earlier this week Arizona will indeed “listen on” Goldschmidt, as dealing him would help restock a barren farm system which Baseball America (subscription required) ranks as the game’s fourth worst.

Between the free-agent and trade markets, Goldschmidt would easily be the premier first base option available. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote Wednesday, there don’t seem to be any starting-caliber first basemen set to reach free agency, while all of Goldschmidt’s fellow trade candidates at the position pale in comparison to the six-time All-Star. Those factors – not to mention Goldschmdt’s affordable salary (he’ll play 2019 on a $14.5MM club option) – would likely lead to widespread interest.

2019 will be the final season of the six-year, $46.5MM extension (including the option) he inked with the D-backs entering 2013. The decision to lock up Goldschmidt before he turned into an elite player will go down as one of the best in franchise history, given that the pact has been a steal from the get-go. He broke out in earnest during the first year of it, turning in a 6.0-fWAR campaign, and hasn’t really slowed down since. Now coming off a 5.1-fWAR season (the fifth year of at least 5.0 fWAR in his career), Goldschmidt’s facing an uncertain future for the first time since signing his team-friendly contract.

The D-backs may well keep Goldschmidt through the winter and try to extend one of their all-time greats, regardless of whether they expect to bounce back from an 82-win season in 2019. But if the team doesn’t think it’s going to contend in the near future, or if it’s simply unable to come to terms with Goldschmidt, we may have seen the last of him in a Diamondbacks uniform.

(poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Diamondbacks

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  • The Diamondbacks are replacing their natural playing surface with artificial turf in advance of the 2019 season. Arizona’s baseball operations staff conducted in-depth research, finding their new dual-fiber surface provides performance and health benefits previously unavailable. The retractable roof at Chase Field made it increasingly difficult to maintain consistent growing conditions for their natural surface. Arizona will join Tampa Bay and Toronto as the only franchises to utilize an artificial turf, though the Rangers are reportedly considering a similar surface for their new stadium. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that Texas has yet to make a decision on the playing surface for the stadium set to open in 2020, but decision-makers within the organization will be closely monitoring the situation in Arizona.

Diamondbacks Outright Patrick Kivlehan

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The Diamondbacks announced today that they have outrighted outfielder Patrick Kivlehan to Triple-A. Presumably, then, he has already cleared waivers.

Kivlehan, 28, has the right to reject the assignment in favor of free agency. He was previously outrighted from the Reds’ 40-man roster after the 2017 season.

Arizona added Kivlehan in a late-season swap with the Mets. He helped the Snakes fill out their roster down the stretch but only received 14 plate appearances in nine games.

All told, Kivlehan is a .208/.302/.401 hitter in his 242 career MLB plate appearances, most of which came in 2017 with Cincinnati. Over parts of three seasons at Triple-A, the former fourth-rounder carries a .269/.325/.471 slash with 54 home runs in 1,352 plate appearances.

Brad Ziegler Announces Retirement

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Veteran reliever Brad Ziegler has announced his retirement from the game of baseball (Twitter link). The submariner, who chose the occasion of his 39th birthday to spread the news, has appeared in 11 MLB seasons and compiled over seven hundred innings on the hill.

It has certainly been quite a run for a player who got his start as a 20th-round draft pick and did not touch the majors until his age-28 season. As Ziegler himself notes in his announcement, his outlook was dubious at best when he was transformed from a marginal starting pitching prospect into a drop-down reliever.

As it turns out, Ziegler has led all relievers in baseball in innings pitched and appearances since making his debut in 2008. Despite working in the mid-eighties with his signature sinker, Ziegler befuddled MLB hitters all along the way.

It didn’t take long for Ziegler to announce his presence once he finally did debut. He spun a record-setting 39 scoreless frames for the Athletics in his rookie campaign.

Inevitably, the league adjusted somewhat. And Ziegler was always somewhat limited by his lack of swing-and-miss stuff. But he proceeded to reel off an amazing span of productive campaigns in Oakland and then (after a mid-2011 trade) with the Diamondbacks. From 2008 through 2016, Ziegler tossed nearly six hundred frames while maintaining a 2.44 ERA and picking up 85 saves.

The end of that stretch of excellence, of course, did not come with either of those organizations. Ziegler was shipped from Arizona to the Red Sox at the 2016 trade deadline, leading to a quality run down the stretch in Boston.

Ziegler ended up carrying that momentum into free agency, landing a two-year, $16MM deal from the Marlins. Things didn’t go as hoped, but Ziegler did figure out a way to turn things around in 2018. He threw well enough in the run-up to the deadline that he landed back in Arizona to finish out his career.

Ultimately, Ziegler will be remembered for being a highly-respected, consistent, and exceedingly durable reliever. He led all of baseball, in fact, with 82 appearances in his final campaign. Ziegler also notably tallied more than one hundred career saves.

Above all else, though, his absurd 66.7% career groundball rate sets a mark that future hurlers of his ilk will be measured by. That stands as a record for the modern era in which such statistics are available. (You can safely ignore the first name on that list, as it’s based only on a one-appearance sample in 2002, the first year that GB% is computed.)

It is not yet known what Ziegler will pursue next, but the long-time player’s union representative will surely have his choice of opportunities in and around the game of baseball. MLBTR congratulates him on an excellent career and wishes him the best of luck in his future endeavors. (For the record, this offer still stands!)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On D-backs’ Offseason Plans

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With two of their best players, A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin, set to hit free agency while other key players like Paul Goldschmidt and Robbie Ray inch closer to the open market, the D-backs will at least gauge trade interest in their roster early in the offseason before plotting a course, GM Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.

Around the league, there’s an expectation that the Snakes could oversee a full-throated rebuild, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests on Twitter. Within the organization, Hazen says the front office has already met with owner Ken Kendrick and CEO Derrick Hall, calling Kendrick “open-minded” as the offseason gets underway.

“I think one of the takeaways for us was just to get a feel for what the trade market would be for various guys, evaluate the free-agent market as it comes out and see what happens, and reconvene,” adds Hazen.

There’s been plenty of speculation about a rebuild in Phoenix, where the D-backs stand to lose both Pollock and Corbin this winter and will see Goldschmidt reach free agency following the 2019 season. Ray, meanwhile, is set to hit the open market after the 2020 season, as is outfielder David Peralta. The Arizona farm system is not considered to be particularly strong, and the team’s long-term payroll is weighed down by Zack Greinke’s record contract and the albatross deal for Yasmany Tomas — two remnants from the previous front office regime around which Hazen & Co. will need to navigate.

The D-backs also have a whopping 14 players eligible for arbitration this winter, including several key players who are up for sizable raises — as projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz earlier today. Peralta ($7.7MM), Ray ($6.1MM), Brad Boxberger ($4.9MM), Taijuan Walker ($4.825MM), Jake Lamb ($4.7MM), Steven Souza Jr. ($4MM), Nick Ahmed ($3.1MM), Archie Bradley ($2MM), Andrew Chafin ($1.8MM), T.J. McFarland ($1.4MM) and Matt Andriese ($1.1MM) all figure to be tendered contracts.

Add in Goldschmidt’s no-brainer club option and guaranteed salaries for Greinke, Tomas, Alex Avila, Jarrod Dyson and Ketel Marte, and the tab reaches $119.125MM — a hefty sum for a D-backs club that has only twice opened the season with more than $100MM in guaranteed contracts on the books. Even rounding out the roster with league-minimum players would push the Diamondbacks within a few million dollars of the franchise-record $131.5MM payroll they carried on Opening Day 2018. And if the team decides to tender contracts to any of Shelby Miller ($4.9MM projection), Chris Owings ($3.6MM) or John Ryan Murphy ($1.1MM), that financial outlook would only be further muddied.

With little help on the way from the farm, two of their best players hitting free agency, the face of a franchise a year from the open market, a near-record payroll and a miserable finish to the season, it’s not hard to see why the D-backs are at least considering a look to the future. A full tear-down wouldn’t even be necessary, as they could gauge interest in flipping some stars who are controlled for a relatively short period of time in exchange for some more controllable assets that could help at the MLB level either immediately or in the near future.

Goldschmidt would be the biggest piece they could put on the market, as the perennial MVP candidate rebounded from an awful start to post a characteristically brilliant .290/.389/.533 slash with 33 homers in 690 plate appearances. But Ray would also be one of the most in-demand assets on the offseason market for starting pitching, with few quality arms expected to be available in trades. The 27-year-old missed time with an oblique strain in 2018 and a concussion in 2017, but he’s averaged better than 12 strikeouts per nine innings over the past two seasons and a 3.34 ERA in his past 285 1/3 innings in that time. Peralta is only two years from free agency himself and posted a .293/.352/.516 line with a career-high 30 homers.

Certainly, there are avenues to additional payroll capacity down the line. The team inked a television deal reportedly worth more than $1.5 billion in Feb. 2015, but they’re only in year three of a contract that was said to be as long as two decades in length and included gradual increases in year-over-year television revenue. The Diamondbacks are also in the process of seeking alternatives to Chase Field, but a new stadium wouldn’t be a possibility until at least the 2022 season.

Mike Hazen On Diamondbacks' Offseason Plans

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  • Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen spoke to the media Monday on the heels of an 82-80 season in which the club went 8-19 in September to fall out of contention. While the offseason’s only about a month from beginning in earnest, Hazen’s not sure yet which direction the club will go, as he suggested (via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic) that it may take until November for a decision to come. It seems unlikely the club will go all in toward contention or launch a full rebuild, though, as Hazen told Zach Buchanan of The Athletic: “I think realistically it’s probably more narrow than that, than the spectrum you portrayed.”

Diamondbacks Part Ways With Dave Magadan

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The D-backs announced Monday that they’ve “mutually parted ways” with hitting coach Dave Magadan. The remainder of the team’s coaching staff — pitching coach Mike Butcher, bullpen coach Mike Fetters, quality control/catching coach Robby Hammock, first base coach Dave McKay, bench coach Jerry Narron and third base coach Tony Perezchica — will return for the 2019 season under manager Torey Lovullo. Assistant hitting coach Tim Laker will be part of the search for Magadan’s replacement.

Magadan, 56, enjoyed a very solid playing career, hitting .288/.390/.377 with more walks (718) than strikeouts (546) over parts of 16 big league seasons. The 2018 season was his third as the Diamondbacks’ hitting coach and his 16th on a big league coaching staff. He’s also spent time as the hitting coach for the Padres, Red Sox (including their 2007 World Series season) and Rangers since retiring as a player.

The Diamondbacks were in contention for much of the season but collapsed in epic fashion over the season’s final month, following out of contention as the Rockies and Dodgers surged to a first-place tie in the NL West. The month of September was the D-backs’ second-worst of the season from an offensive standpoint, as they combined to hit just .214/.287/.374 as a team with 98 runs scored. Jack Magruder of The Sports Xchange tweets that Lovullo stressed that the decision was mutual in nature but also added that the team “did not live up to the expectations we had,” offensively.

Diamondbacks Notes: Corbin, Miller, Descalso, Souza

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Left-hander Patrick Corbin is set for a lucrative trip to free agency in the offseason, having just wrapped up a campaign in which he was somewhat quietly one of the majors’ premier pitchers. Corbin, who reached 200 innings for the first time in his career, ranks third among starters in FIP (2.47), fourth in fWAR (6.3), sixth in K/9 (11.07) and K/BB ratio (5.13), and 14th in ERA (3.15). Those numbers may help price Corbin out of Arizona, and based on his comments Friday, the 29-year-old “seems to believe his time with the Diamondbacks likely is over,” Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes “I think when the season is over, I’ll look into it more,” Corbin said. “I think I’ll just look back on my time here. The seven years have gone by really quick. A lot of friendships that I’ve had here. I’m not sure what’s going to happen. But the Diamondbacks organization will always have a special part of my heart.”

Here’s more from Piecoro:

  • Another member of the Diamondbacks’ staff, righty Shelby Miller, will “probably” reach free agency, Piecoro tweets. Miller’s controllable through 2019, which is scheduled to be his fourth and final arbitration year, but the club could non-tender him after another disappointing season. Miller, who’s on a $4.9MM salary this year, has barely pitched since 2017 on account of arm injuries. He logged just 22 frames before undergoing Tommy John surgery last season, and after returning this past June to throw 15 innings over four subpar starts, went back to the shelf with elbow inflammation. Miller did come back to throw a scoreless inning Saturday, but that’s of little consolation to the D-backs amid another lost season for him. If Arizona does say goodbye to the soon-to-be 28-year-old Miller, it’ll mark the end of a disastrous union which began with his much-maligned acquisition from Atlanta in December 2015.
  • Diamondbacks pending free-agent infielder Daniel Descalso spoke about his future Friday, telling Piecoro he “would hate to see” the club embark on a rebuild after a disappointing season. While Descalso “sounds interested” in staying in Arizona, per Piecoro, the team’s direction may determine whether that happens. Descalso revealed that team success will be among his key considerations as he maps out his future. Age (32 next month) won’t be on Descalso’s side when he hits free agency, but he’s hopeful his recent output will help him reel in a richer payday than he received last time he reached the market. Arizona signed Descalso to a one-year, $1.35MM guarantee in 2017 and then kept him this season with a $2MM club option. He has been well worth that investment in ’18, having batted .239/.354/.437 (112 wRC+) with a career-best 13 home runs in 422 plate appearances.
  • When the Diamondbacks acquired outfielder Steven Souza Jr. from the Rays last February, their hope was that he’d help fill the void of superstar slugger J.D. Martinez, who departed in free agency. Instead, as Piecoro explains, Souza struggled through an injury-shortened 2018. Souza batted an ugly .217/.306/.354 (80 wRC+) with four homers in 271 PA this year, during which he endured multiple DL stints for a strained right pectoral. The 29-year-old discussed his tough season with Piecoro, saying: “Not great. It’s just been a really trying year. To the point of injury, re-injury, the trade, coming back and not playing well. All of it has just been a trying year, one I’m going to use for motivation next year.” Souza went on to suggest that he’s still not 100 percent from that injury, which he suffered in late March, but he and the team expect a return to form in 2019. “We believe in this guy strongly,” general manager Mike Hazen said. “We believe he’s going to come back next year and have a great year.” Souza’s only a season removed from a career year in Tampa Bay, where he hit .239/.351/.459 (120 wRC+) with 30 homers, 16 steals and 3.7 fWAR in 617 PA. That performance helped him secure a $3.5MM salary for this year, his third-to-last arbitration-eligible season.

Diamondbacks Reinstate Shelby Miller, Place Christian Walker On 60-Day DL

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  • The Diamondbacks have reinstated right-hander Shelby Miller from the 60-day disabled list and sent first baseman/outfielder Christian Walker to the 60-day DL with a facial fracture, per a team announcement. Miller may be in line to pitch again this season after missing most of the campaign with arm issues. After undergoing Tommy John surgery in May 2017, Miller didn’t return until June 25 this year, and he then went down with elbow inflammation on July 11. Before he headed back on the shelf, the once-promising Miller logged a disastrous 11.40 ERA with 11.4 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9 in 15 innings (four starts), continuing a nightmarish Diamondbacks stint that began in 2016. Arizona will have to decide over the winter whether to tender Miller a ontract for 2019, his fourth and final arbitration-eligible season. The soon-to-be 28-year-old is currently on a $4.9MM salary.

Top Five Trade Candidates: NL West

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With the season nearing its end, and the teams who fell short of playoff contention well into their offseason preparations, it’s a good time to scan around the league and take a look at the top five trade candidates in each division.

We’ll start in the NL West, which features two of the most intriguing targets in baseball:

  1. Nolan Arenado, Rockies: Arenado, 27, will enter his final year of arbitration in 2019 as one of the most decorated performers in club history.  He was the MVP frontrunner in the season’s first half, smashing out of the gate to a .312/.395/.586 line in the lead-up to his fourth consecutive all-star appearance.  Though he slumped to a near league-average line after the break, and his usual vacuum-like defense wasn’t always on display, Arenado is arguably the league’s most consistent performer over the last four seasons, where his 20.5 fWAR ranks third in the National League, and his 629 games played is tied for fifth among all performers.  Colorado, loath for years to deal from their lot of established contributors and minor league riches, may have to acquiesce here: the club has already shelled out massive deals to 30-somethings Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, and Wade Davis, and has scores of dead money buried in aging relievers Mike Dunn, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw.  Fitting Arenado into the books would leave precious little space with which to maneuver; a monster haul, however, could set them right back on a division-pacing track.
  2. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks: Goldschmidt, 31, has rebounded from an awful start to the season to yet again place himself among the league’s best: his 145 wRC+ almost exactly mirrors his career average, and his 5.1 fWAR is the fourth consecutive season in which he’s eclipsed the 5.0 mark.  The Diamondbacks, though, are a in a precarious position – a mostly barren farm seems to preclude any major upgrades, and the club boasted little in the way of unexpected production from under-the-radar performers this year.  Plus, there’s the departing free agents – a dominant Patrick Corbin, who figures to parlay his bat-missing ways into a huge contract this offseason, and A.J. Pollock, whose steady performance when healthy will surely not go unnoticed.  The mid-market club is still saddled, too, by Zack Greinke’s behemoth deal, and doesn’t figure to fit both Goldschmidt – who’ll hit free agency after the club picks up his $14.5MM option for ’19 – and the veteran hurler on the books without severely compromising the team’s flexibility moving forward.  A wide-ranging infusion of talent seems just what Arizona needs this offseason.
  3. Joc Pederson, Dodgers: Pederson, 26, has quietly put together another stellar season, slicing his strikeout rate for the fourth consecutive year (to a career-low 19%) and delivering 2.7 fWAR in just 436 PAs.  But he remains unplayable against lefties (60 career wRC+), and his center-field defense, over the last two seasons, has earned mostly subpar reviews.  Still, he’s a fierce power threat against right-handers, offers quality defense in a corner, and has shown an aptitude for plate-discipline adjustments not often seen in exploitable power bats.  With a healthy Corey Seager set to return in ’19, Max Muncy, and Cody Bellinger, the platoon-happy Dodgers figure to have more than enough left-side thump to go around: perhaps moving the second-time arbitration-eligible Pederson for bullpen help and/or rotation depth will be a priority come November.
  4. Brandon Belt, Giants:  No player in the division seems in more desperate need of a scenery change than Belt, who is routinely harangued by his fanbase for a supposed lack of power, propensity for the fluke injury, and a perceived failure in the ’clutch.’  Belt, 30, has done little but produce when on the field, though, pairing elite first-base defense (his 13 DRS – in just 112 games – was tied for the league lead among 1B this season) with sky-high walk rates and steady gap power (limited, perhaps, by the cavernous right-field at AT&T Park) to cement himself as above-average regular (12.2 fWAR in limited time since the beginning of ’15 ) at the position.  His contract – he’s owed $48MM through the end of the 2021 season – and recent injury history (a meniscus issue that precipitated a second-half decline) may give some teams pause, but the retooling Giants should net a significant return if they’re willing to eat a little cash.
  5. Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks: Ray, 27 on Monday, seems the perfect target for a team that leans heavily on the bullpen: he rarely makes its past the 6th inning, preferring instead to max out with the heater (his 94.1 MPH average fastball velocity ranks third among left-handers since the start of the 2016 season) and a wipeout breaking ball mix that’s allowed him to post the league’s second highest strikeout total (11.70) over the same frame.  With two years of arbitration eligibility left, the man with the 85 xFIP- over the last three seasons (good for 22nd in baseball) is sure to bring back an attractive return from a data hungry team with bat-missing preferences.

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