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Latest On Madison Bumgarner

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DEC. 10: It’s looking increasingly probable that Bumgarner will either reach or approach his $100MM-plus goal, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. “Many teams” are in the race, per Heyman, who tweets that the Twins “are thought to be” heavily in pursuit.

DEC. 9, 5:11pm: The Giants, Bumgarner’s lone team to date, are among his suitors and will meet with his representation this week, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. “We’re involved in those discussions,” Zaidi said. “We’re planning to meet with his representatives this week and they have other meetings scheduled, too. That’s what happens when a player is a free agent, they’re going to explore all their options. Guys are looking for different things, looking for maybe a particular geography, maybe a team in a specific part of their competitive cycle.” Interestingly, although they’re not known for their spending, the division-rival Diamondbacks are also in the mix, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. The Angels are also part of it, though whether they’re aggressive in pursuing Bumgarner could depend on if they land Gerrit Cole.

10:46am: Representatives of southpaw Madison Bumgarner have informed interested organizations that he’s looking to top nine figures over five years with his first free agent contract, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. Whether he’ll get there remains to be seen.

Zack Wheeler just blew past the $100M mark, but MLBTR predicted he’d substantially out-earn Bumgarner. While Bumgarner has unquestionably accomplished more in his career to date, the younger Wheeler seems on the upswing. We predicted Bumgarner would land at four years and $72MM, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him approach or even reach the $100MM level if interest soars to five years.

The question facing MLB teams is whether they believe Bumgarner can sustain his excellent results despite less-than-exceptional peripheral numbers. He doesn’t throw as hard as he did in his heyday, but Bumgarner’s velocity has stabilized in the 91 to 92 mph range. He got swings and misses as often as ever in the just-completed campaign after experiencing a somewhat worrisome 2018 downturn. But Bumgarner hasn’t drawn quite as many strikeouts and hasn’t limited the long ball as successfully as he once did, leading ERA estimators to dim on his value.

Bumgarner stands as an interesting market bellwether. Teams won’t pay for his past performance; those days are over. But will they put a big dollar value on his still-significant anticipated future contributions? And will his history of stepping up in the postseason help his cause? Bumgarner is still just thirty years of age and got back to his 200-inning ways in 2019. And even the post-injury version of the lefty still hasn’t finished a season having allowed four earned runs per nine innings.

There are a variety of teams with interest, though to what level isn’t yet evident. The Twins, White Sox, and Reds have been linked clearly to Bumgarner, while the Reds, Cardinals, and Yankees have also been cited as possibilities. It’ll cost the winning bidder draft compensation to add Bumgarner, which could temper the willingness to add yet more dollars and/or years to an offer.

Rangers Exploring Outfield Trades, Pursuing Chirinos Reunion

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8:58pm: The Cardinals are also in the mix for Mazara, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. That jibes with their goal of acquiring a lefty-hitting outfielder.

6:17pm: The White Sox are “working hard to land” Mazara, as Jim Bowden of SiriusXM first reported. As for Chirinos, the Astros, Tigers, Rays and Pirates join the Rangers in the market for him, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

1:04pm: The Rangers have remained busy on the market, with MLB.com’s TR Sullivan reporting that the club is active on multiple fronts (Twitter links). While it stands to reason that the team is still considering moves in the rotation, the attention now is on the position player side after several notable pitching additions.

It has long seemed likely that the Rangers would explore possible swaps involving its existing outfielders. But the team now appears to be engaged in a somewhat dedicated manner. Sullivan says the intention is to “move one of their extra left-handed hitting outfielders,” with Nomar Mazara, Willie Calhoun, and Shin-Soo Choo named as possibilities.

That’s a highly varied group of players. Mazara is a mid-arbitration player that hasn’t turned the corner in the majors but remains quite youthful. Calhoun hasn’t had the same degree of opportunity (and hasn’t logged as much service) but showed well with the bat last year. He’s also still a question mark defensively, as is the aging Choo, who can still hit but isn’t worth the remainder of his big contract.

The Rangers are said to be chatting with the Diamondbacks about some of these players; the clubs were connected last night regarding Mazara. Evidently talks between the Rangers and Marlins didn’t advance. Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio tweets that the Fish were turned off by the asking price for Mazara, a former top prospect.

Meanwhile, there’s “mutual interest” in a new deal with backstop Robinson Chirinos. That’s rather an interesting development, considering the Texas organization surprisingly declined its option over him last fall. The replacement plan fell apart, as MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored, while Chirinos flourished with the cross-state Astros.

The 35-year-old Chirinos and the Rangers are amply familiar with one another, as he played with the team for six seasons. It seems the sides carry no ill will over the way things ended. The catching market has moved rather swiftly to this point, leaving Chirinos and Jason Castro as the top available options.

D-mbacks Reportedly Made "Light" Offer To Madison Bumgarner

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  • The Diamondbacks reportedly have interest in free-agent left-hander Madison Bumgarner, but it appears they’ll have to step it up if they’re going to reel in the longtime division rival. According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the Diamondbacks did make Bumgarner an offer “at some point,” but it was “light.” The 30-year-old seems to have his sights set on becoming the majors’ latest $100MM-plus pitcher, though it remains to be seen whether that’s realistic on his part.

Diamondbacks Interested In Craig Stammen

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  • Several teams appear to be in the market for reliever Craig Stammen. The right-hander’s most recent team, the Padres, as well as the Astros, Diamondbacks, Reds, White Sox, Blue Jays and Cardinals have all expressed interest, per Morosi (Twitter links). Stammen, whom MLBTR projects for a two-year, $10MM guarantee, has put together a strong career divided between Washington and San Diego. The 35-year-old logged a 3.29 ERA with 8.01 K/9, 1.65 BB/9 and a 50.8 percent groundball rate in 82 innings last season as a Padre.

Cherington: Pirates Open To Discussing Trades On Any Players

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New Pirates GM Ben Cherington told reporters yesterday that he’s fielding interest in loads of players, as Rob Biertempfel writes for The Athletic (subscription link). Cherington indicated that he isn’t rebuffing inquiries on any segments of the Pittsburgh roster.

“We wouldn’t want to stop any conversation about any player,” Cherington explains. Right now, he’s gathering information in anticipation of opportunities that haven’t quite presented themselves. “The more information you have, the more clearly you can think about what makes sense for the Pirates when you’re kind of pushed to make a decision,” says Cherington.

The player the Bucs seem likeliest to end up moving is center fielder Starling Marte. It was already known that he was available. He’s in a position of demand and would surely be of greater utility to another team that’s seeking to contend. But the market situation is still taking shape.

There are some new data points to consider with respect to Marte. The Diamondbacks are among the teams showing interest in the veteran, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). That creates another potential landing spot to help generate offers. The full scope of interested teams isn’t clear.

If Marte is to be moved, the Pirates hope to land a controllable backstop in return, per Heyman. Of course, that sort of desire isn’t always attainable. It stands to reason that the organization will focus first and foremost on value rather than worrying too much about filling a specific need.

For that same reason, the Pirates won’t insist upon receiving high-end, far-away prospects in trade talks. Young MLB pieces could also be of interest to the Bucs, Biertempfel tweets. That’s particularly sensible since the organization does have a solid amount of young talent at or near the MLB level. While the results have obviously been disappointing of late, the roster is at the moment in much better shape than those of teams undergoing full-blown rebuilds.

Though much of the focus remains on Marte, the versatile Adam Frazier is said to be getting the most hits, per Heyman (Twitter link). Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette had noted yesterday that Frazier was drawing interest. He’s a capable hitter who’d provide function to most any roster at a reasonable price.

Diamondbacks Notes: Haniger, Mazara, Akiyama, Bullpen

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“The Diamondbacks are said to have interest in both” Mitch Haniger and Nomar Mazara, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes.  Either player would address Arizona’s need for a right fielder, and though the D’Backs would be taking something of a risk either both are coming off disappointing 2019 seasons.  Haniger didn’t play after June 6 due to a ruptured testicle, and even in the 283 plate appearances prior to his injury was already delivering less production than during his impressive 2017-18 campaigns.  Mazara has been a steadily subpar offensive performer (92 wRC+, 93 OPS+) over his four career seasons with the Rangers, hitting .261/.320/.435 with 79 homers over 2189 PA and generating only 1.7 total fWAR.

That said, both offer upside for interested trade partners.  Mazara is a former top prospect and he has hit right-handed pitching decently well, which Piecoro notes is an area of need for the D’Backs.  Haniger, of course, is a known quantity in Arizona — he broke into the big leagues with the Snakes and then was dealt to the Mariners as part of the November 2016 trade that brought Ketel Marte to the desert.  Mazara has two remaining years of arbitration eligibility, while Haniger is arb-eligible for the first time this winter (and at a projected $3MM price tag, so his rough 2019 season also lowered his ceiling for future arbitration earnings).  While Seattle is at least open to discussing Haniger in trades, GM Jerry Dipoto still highly values Haniger, so a deal wouldn’t come easily for the Diamondbacks.  It would seem that Mazara would be the more available of the two options, as Texas has been rumored to be looking to deal from its surplus of left-handed hitting outfielders.

Here’s more from Arizona…

  • In terms of what the D’Backs might give up for Haniger, Mazara, or any other veteran upgrades, GM Mike Hazen indicated that his team is “willing to” part with some “good minor league players.”  Piecoro suggests that the team wouldn’t be likely to trade its very top prospects, but would be open to dealing youngsters “from the next tier down” in the rankings.  It is perhaps noteworthy that the three names Piecoro cites as “the players [the Diamondbacks] view as their best prospects” are Daulton Varsho, Geraldo Perdomo, and Corbin Carroll, whereas two other prospects (Alek Thomas and Kristian Robinson) occupy the top two spots on MLB Pipeline’s ranking of Arizona’s top 30 minor leaguers, though Piecoro said “perhaps others” are also in the team’s internal top tier.
  • Beyond right field, the Diamondbacks are also on the lookout for center field help.  While Marte played both center field and second base last year, Hazen told The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (Twitter link) and other reporters that he would prefer to land a center fielder to lighten the load on Marte.  Shogo Akiyama has been mentioned as a potential target for the D’Backs, though Hazen said that he hasn’t yet met with the Japanese center fielder and doesn’t have meetings scheduled for the future.
  • Hazen told Piecoro and other reporters that after signing Junior Guerra, the D’Backs are still looking for “one more” reliever.  Archie Bradley pitched well enough in the closer role last year that a new reliever doesn’t necessarily require closing experience to be considered, though Hazen said that a reliever that could be used “toward the back end [of the bullpen] would be ideal.”

Souza Jr. Open To Return To Tampa

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After missing much of 2018 and all of 2019, outfielder Steven Souza Jr. will be looking for a place to reboot his career in 2020. Souza was recently non-tendered by the Diamondbacks, but he insists he is finally healthy and cleared for game action. One club he wouldn’t mind spending the 2020 season with is the Tampa Bay Rays, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The best seasons of Souza’s career were with Tampa in 2016 and 2017, but outside of a particularly strong 2017 in which he posted a 121 wRC+, Souza has largely performed within arm’s reach of league average – from both above and below. The spotty record combined with the injuries of the past two seasons means Souza will likely have to settle for a prove-yourself type of deal, which could put the Rays among interested teams. That’s all speculation for now, however, as the market for Souza isn’t likely to take shape with any immediacy. While we wait, let’s check out a couple other quick bits of news from around the baseball world…

Diamondbacks To Sign Junior Guerra

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The Diamondbacks have agreed to terms with right-hander Junior Guerra on a one-year deal that includes a club option for a second year, first reported by Kyle Lesniewski of Brew Crew Ball and confirmed by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal will pay Guerra $2.55MM in 2020 along with a $100K buyout on the club option, making for a $2.65MM overall guarantee, as reported by Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic.

Guerra, who had been arbitration-eligible for the first time, was non-tendered by the Brewers, meaning that he will remain under team control for three more years. He had been projected by MLBTR to earn $3.5MM in arbitration.

The 34-year-old Guerra adds another option to the Arizona bullpen, as well as an arm that can provide multiple innings. Guerra emerged as one of Craig Counsell’s most reliable options in the second half of 2019, tossing 83 2/3 innings in 72 games with Milwaukee, including 23 appearances in which he recorded more than three outs.

A converted starter, 2019 marked the first season in which Guerra was deployed as a full-time reliever, and he delivered solid results, logging a 3.55 ERA and 4.52 FIP while striking out 77 batters and walking 36. He’ll join a bullpen that graded out as firmly middle of the road in 2019, providing some much needed depth to Torey Lovullo’s arsenal.

D-backs Expect To Spread Free Agent Spending

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The Diamondbacks will have money to work with this winter, but don’t expect them to land a premium free agent. As Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes, the team intends to spread its free cash around to plug multiple holes.

Team CEO Derrick Hall wasn’t looking to play hide-and-seek with his payroll planning. He made clear the team expects to open with about as much on the books for 2020 as it had in the prior two campaigns. That leaves $30MM and change to spend toward the 2020 roster, per Piecoro’s tabulations, depending upon the opportunities available and any desire to keep a war chest handy for mid-season moves.

It’s “doubtful” the team will “put it all in on one big free agent,” Hall says. Rather, the intention is to “look at multiple guys.” So, the intention is to compete. At the same time, the organization won’t rule out trading from its MLB roster.

Flexibility is the name of the game for GM Mike Hazen. The Snakes feel they have it and are willing to utilize it … so long as it doesn’t handcuff them in the future. Even as the team explores possible deals involving southpaw Robbie Ray, who’ll be a free agent after the season, Hall says there’s a “surplus of talent” on the farm that could allow the organization to structure deals to improve the MLB product.

The possibilities are endless as the Winter Meetings approach. Click here to read our full preview of the Arizona offseason (which we published before reports emerged of Ray’s ongoing availability).

D-backs, Giants Join Cubs With Interest In Nicholas Castellanos

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12:30pm: The Diamondbacks are also showing some interest, Morosi tweets. It’s good news for Castellanos to have National League teams involved, though it’s still not clear which if any would be interested in a lengthy commitment.

10:42am: The Giants have joined the Cubs in showing interest in free agent outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, according to a report from Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Other pursuers remain unknown.

Castellanos is one of the many Scott Boras-repped players populating the upper reaches of the open market. He joins Marcell Ozuna among the top-available outfield options.

While it’s a bit worrisome to imagine Castellanos patrolling the spacious Oracle Park outfield, the club is pulling in the fences this winter. And as Morosi notes, it’s also possible that the youthful slugger could at some point step back into the infield. (He never managed to stick at third base previously but could presumably be expected to play a palatable first base.)

Castellanos is an exceptionally difficult free agent to prognosticate. We ultimately settled on a prediction of four years and $58MM, but batted around quite a few alternative concepts. Castellanos is an accomplished but hardly all-world hitter who has shown some improvements in the field but remains a bat-first player. Involvement of the Giants in his market would assuredly help, as the level of demand has constituted a major element of uncertainty in the earning outlook.

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