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D’Backs Notes: Ray, Lamb, Ahmed

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The latest from Arizona…

  • Robbie Ray threw a bullpen session on Tuesday and is on track to be activated off the injured list when first eligible on Sunday.  (Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic was among those to report the news.)  A lower back spasm sent Ray to the IL on August 15, and while the southpaw’s back has been something of a recurring issue lately, Ray feels the 10-day minimum absence was a long enough break to correct the problem.  Ray is scheduled to start the Diamondbacks’ game against the Brewers on Sunday, and he’ll be a welcome addition to an Arizona team that is battling to stay in the wild card race.
  • It has been a trying couple of years for Jake Lamb, who played only 56 games in 2018 due to shoulder surgery, and has been limited to just 50 games this season after a quad strain kept him on the IL for almost the entire first half.  Perhaps unsurprisingly, Lamb has yet to get into a rhythm, hitting .211/.346/.391 with five homers over 156 PA.  Despite these struggles, Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen told the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (subscription required) that he expects Lamb to get on track, and reacted with surprise when asked if Lamb could potentially be a non-tender candidate.  “Wow, I wouldn’t anticipate that being a consideration for him,” Hazen said.  Lamb is making $4.825MM this season, so a projected raise won’t be too large for Lamb’s final year of arbitration eligibility.  There’s not much financial risk for the D’Backs in retaining Lamb to see if he can regain the form that saw him hit 59 homers in 2016-17, and make the NL’s All-Star roster in 2017.
  • Nick Ahmed is slated to hit free agency after the 2020 season, though Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic suggests that the shortstop is the team’s best extension candidate, and that the D’Backs should look to keep Ahmed in the fold.  Long regarded as one of baseball’s best defenders, Ahmed has taken a significant step forward at the plate this season, hitting .271/.333/.465 with 17 homers over 497 plate appearances.  While this only grades out as roughly league-average production (101 wRC+, 103 OPS+), Ahmed had only a .229/.279/.368 slash line in 1584 PA prior to 2019, with a 67 wRC+ and 69 OPS+.  Given that Ahmed’s offensive numbers are still modest, it could pave the way for an extension at a reasonable price for the team, and Ahmed might prefer some contractual security rather than test the market heading into his age-31 season.  Ahmed is earning $3,662,500 this season and is set for a healthy raise on that figure in his final trip through the arbitration process this offseason.

Diamondbacks Sign Michael Tonkin

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The Diamondbacks have signed right-hander Michael Tonkin out of the independent Atlantic League, per an announcement Long Island Ducks GM Michael Pfaff (Twitter link). He’ll head to Triple-A Reno for now,

Tonkin, 29, allowed just one earned run with a 31-to-9 K/BB ratio in 26 2/3 innings with the Ducks prior to signing with the D-backs. The 6’7″ righty went to Spring Training with the Rangers organization and latched on with the Brewers late in Spring Training after he didn’t make the cut in Texas. Tonkin headed to Triple-A San Antonio with the Brewers and posted a 4.26 ERA with 14 strikeouts and nine walks in 12 2/3 innings before being cut loose a second time.

Though he hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2017, Tonkin does have experience in parts of five different MLB campaigns — all coming with the Twins from 2013-17. Once a relatively well-regarded bullpen prospect in Minnesota’s system, Tonkin pitched 146 1/3 innings for the Twins in that five-year span, compiling a 4.43 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.54 HR/9 and a 39.9 percent ground-ball rate. Tonkin generated more grounders as he rose through the Twins’ ranks, but he favored his four-seamer over his sinker/two-seam fastball in the Majors. He averaged 94 mph on that four-seamer and 83.4 mph on a slider, his primary secondary offering.

Tonkin has been too homer-prone at the big league level to find consistent success, but he has a career 2.55 ERA with 10.6 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 in 173 Triple-A innings. He’ll give the Diamondbacks some additional pitching depth with Yoshihisa Hirano and Robbie Ray on the big league injured list and righties Greg Holland, Zack Godley and Ben Lively no longer in the organization.

Diamondbacks Place Robbie Ray On 10-Day Injured List

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5:58PM: Ray’s MRI didn’t indicate any serious damage, the southpaw told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert (Twitter link).

3:14PM: The Diamondbacks have placed left-hander Robbie Ray on the 10-day injured list due to a lower back spasm, the team announced.  Right-handers Jon Duplantier and Stefan Crichton have been called up from Triple-A to take the roster spots of Ray and Tim Locastro, who was optioned to Triple-A yesterday.

Back spasms forced Ray out of last night’s start after just two innings, and the southpaw was scheduled to undergo an MRI today.  Obviously the D’Backs were concerned enough to send Ray to the IL, though Ray could end up missing a minimal amount of time, depending on the severity of the spasms.  Needless to say, Arizona would love to have Ray healthy and contributing again as soon as possible, given how the D’Backs are fighting to stay in the postseason race (3.5 games out of an NL wild card position entering today’s play).

Since Zack Greinke was dealt to the Astros at the trade deadline, Ray has become the de facto ace of Arizona’s rotation, with his 3.99 ERA, 2.97 K/BB rate, and 11.9 K/9 over 142 innings this season.  ERA predictors (4.09 FIP, 3.71 xFIP, 3.97 SIERA) and a .311 xwOBA that almost exactly matches his .314 wOBA back up those solid-if-unspectacular numbers.  Ray himself received a lot of trade attention at the deadline, and it’s possible the D’Backs could again look at moving him this offseason, as 2020 is his final year of team control before free agency.

With Ray out, the Diamondbacks have Merrill Kelly, Mike Leake, Alex Young, and Zac Gallen remaining in the rotation.  Duplantier made three starts earlier this season and is the likeliest candidate to fill in while Ray is out, plus Taylor Clarke is at Triple-A and the club could also explore using an opener.  Luke Weaver and Taijuan Walker are expected back from the IL at some point, though it isn’t certain if they’ll make it back to the active roster (or be used as starters) before Ray is able to return.

NL Notes: Carlson, Hader, Hosmer, Ahmed

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The Cardinals have promoted top outfield prospect Dylan Carlson to Triple-A, per an announcement from the club’s top affiliate. That puts the 20-year-old switch-hitter right on the doorstep of the big leagues. Carlson turned in a strong .281/.364/.518 batting line with 21 long balls and 18 steals over 483 Double-A plate appearances. It’s not clear whether the club has any thought of a late-2019 MLB promotion for the talented youngster.

More from the National League …

  • MLB.com’s Mike Petriello provides an interesting examination of the feast-or-famine experience hitters have had this year against Brewers lefty relief ace Josh Hader. It really is a curious situation, as Petriello explains in full detail. In essence: Hader is harder to make contact against than anyone in baseball. But when batters have put bat to ball this year, they’ve tended to make loud sounds and often ended up trotting the bases. Petriello identifies a few potential causes/fixes for the Milwaukee southpaw. In particular, it seems Hader can work on reducing first-pitch predictability and tightening up his command at times. You’ll certainly want to read the entire piece to appreciate it.
  • As he continues to produce middling overall offensive numbers, Padres first baseman Eric Hosmer is showing increasingly yawning platoon splits, as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell writes. It’s simple enough, in theory, to spell him against southpaws. But that’s tough to do given the club’s mammoth investment in Hosmer. Skipper Andy Green made clear it’s not an immediate possibility. That makes sense, as the Friars have to hope that Hosmer turns a corner and can afford to give him the leash to work things out. But if it comes down to it, the extreme platoon situation actually ought to make it easier in the long run to deal with a contract that has simply not panned out.
  • Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed has long been lauded for his superlative glovework, but has mostly remained an obscure player. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic highlights the growing value of the 29-year-old, who is now finally marrying his excellent defensive performance with much-improved hitting. With torrid recent streak, Ahmed has reached league-average offensive levels for the season as a whole. Piecoro provides an excellent look at Ahmed’s thus-far successful efforts to avoid chasing pitches out of the zone and make better contact when he does offer. Ahmed, who is earning $3.663MM this season, is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility.

Robbie Ray To Undergo MRI On Back

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  • Diamondbacks left-hander Robbie Ray exited his start in Colorado on Wednesday after two innings because of back spasms. Afterward, manager Torey Lovullo told Zach Buchanan of The Athletic and other reporters he hopes Ray won’t “need to miss much time” (subscription link). The club should have a better idea of Ray’s status after he undergoes an MRI on Thursday. With Arizona already looking like a playoff long shot (it’s 3 1/2 back of a wild-card spot), it can ill afford to lose Ray for any decent chunk of time. The 27-year-old is the No. 1 starter left in a rotation that has gone through significant changes this season. Ray was a trade candidate at last month’s deadline, but he stayed put while the team instead moved ace Zack Greinke, bringing in Mike Leake and Zac Gallen to help cover for his exit. Back in May, long before the deadline, the Diamondbacks saw emergent righty Luke Weaver hit the IL with arm troubles. Weaver still hasn’t come back. There is optimism Weaver will return this season, but he’ll likely finish the year as a reliever if he does.

Blake Swihart Clears Waivers, Accepts Outright Assignment

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Catcher/outfielder Blake Swihart went unclaimed on waivers after being designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Reno, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports (via Twitter).

Swihart, 27, has enough service time that he could’ve rejected the assignment, but doing so would’ve meant forfeiting the remainder of this season’s $910K big league salary. He’ll now remain with the Diamondbacks through season’s end, but he’ll quite likely elect free agency this offseason, as is his right as a player with three-plus years of service who has been outrighted off the 40-man roster.

It wasn’t long ago that Swihart was widely considered to be among the game’s elite prospects. Prior to the 2015 season, each of MLB.com, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and ESPN ranked him among the game’s top 20 overall farmhands — hardly a surprise given his status as a former first-round pick who hit .293/.341/.469 in 110 games between Double-A and Triple-A as a 22-year-old in 2014.

Swihart’s bat didn’t impress much in his 2015 MLB debut, however, as he batted just .274/.319/.392 through 309 trips to the plate. More concerning, though, were the escalating questions about his defensive abilities (or lack thereof) behind the dish. The Red Sox organization began playing Swihart in left field and at first base, but he continued to work with coaches and instructors to hone his defensive chops at catcher.

Unfortunately, those concerns never really dissipated, and his sparse use in 2018 surely didn’t help matters. The Red Sox were loath to lose Swihart, who was at that point out of minor league options, but they were also reluctant to commit to him as a regular catching option. As such, Boston carried both Christian Vazquez and light-hitting Sandy Leon to open the 2018 campaign, relegating Swihart to a seldom-used third catcher and infielder/outfielder. Swihart received virtually no playing time early in the season and had tallied fewer than 100 plate appearances by the time the All-Star break rolled around. That the Red Sox effectively played the 2018 season with a 24-man roster makes last year’s World Series win all the more impressive, but Swihart’s nonexistent role surely didn’t do him any favors.

With Arizona, Swihart was used exclusively as a corner outfielder and first baseman, tallying just 70 trips to the plate over the life of 31 games in a similarly minimal role. The fact that he went unclaimed on waivers when he’s earning less than $1MM and could’ve been controlled through the 2022 season via arbitration doesn’t bode well for his chances of landing a big league contract this winter. For now, though, he’ll try to open some eyes at Triple-A in an effort to work his way back onto the Diamondbacks’ 40-man roster before season’s end.

D-Backs Learn Lessons From Greinke Contract

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Zach Buchanan of The Athletic recently took an interesting look at the Diamondbacks’ recently concluded experience with big-money starter Zack Greinke. While you’ll want to read the entire piece (subscription link), a few comments from team president Derrick Hall are worth highlighting here in particular. “If you’re going to make that kind of commitment, you have to be sure that it’s going to push you over the top,” said Hall of the Greinke signing. “That was clearly a lesson learned.” Though the contract didn’t exactly sink the club — Greinke generally performed to his pay grade and the Snakes were able to get some value out of the tail end — it did make it difficult for the organization to put together a complete roster that was truly competitive and surely shaped the team’s decisionmaking when it came to retaining (or not) core talent. Hall did not rule out any major future splashes, but did suggest a somewhat different strategy is likelier going forward. The Arizona org will “probably prefer spreading and balancing out those salaries more evenly,” he says, thus “making sure you have that flexibility so that, when the time comes, if you want to add more significantly, you can.”

Diamondbacks Designate Blake Swihart, Select Josh Rojas

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The Diamondbacks announced that they’ve designated utilityman Blake Swihart for assignment and selected infielder Joshua Rojas’ contract from Triple-A Reno.

The Swihart addition hasn’t worked out for the Diamondbacks, who acquired the former highly touted catcher from the Red Sox back in April. The 27-year-old didn’t get a great chance to establish himself as a backstop in Boston, and the same has been true in Arizona. Swihart hasn’t started a single game behind the plate as a member of the Diamondbacks, with whom he has batted a meager .136/.186/.273 in 70 plate appearances. Overall, the 2011 first-round pick is just a .243/.301/.355 hitter over 696 major league PA.

The 25-year-old Rojas is an Arizona native who’s coming up just under two weeks after he joined the team in its trade with Houston for right-handed star Zack Greinke. Rojas, who now ranks as the Diamondbacks’ 29th overall prospect at MLB.com, has slashed an outstanding .332/.418/.606 with 23 home runs and 33 steals (43 attempts) in 479 PA at the Triple-A level this season.

Diamondbacks Release Greg Holland

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The Diamondbacks have released right-hander Greg Holland, officially announcing the move today after designating the reliever for assignment earlier this week.

It isn’t surprising to see Holland clear DFA waivers without a claim, as a team interested in his services can now sign him for merely a prorated portion of the minimum salary for the remainder of the season.  Between guaranteed salary and already-achieved bonuses, Holland has roughly $1.08MM still owed to him, the bulk of which (subtracting the minimum salary on any new contract) will be paid by the Diamondbacks.

Finances aside, it isn’t out of the question that another team will take a chance at adding Holland, given both his career track record and the fact that he was still posting good results only weeks ago.  Holland had a 2.08 ERA over his first 26 innings for the D’Backs, and as recently as July 22, had a 3.00 ERA over 33 innings.  Over his last five outings, however, the righty was crushed for a 23.63 ERA and six walks with just one strikeout in 2 2/3 innings of work.

Advanced metrics raised an eyebrow at Holland’s early-season success, however, and given that Holland’s velocity and swinging-strike rate both began to drop off as the season continued, it isn’t a surprise that his numbers took a big dip.  Any club looking to sign Holland would be hoping for a repeat of his late-season run in 2018, when he signed with the Nationals (after struggling with the Cardinals and being released) and proceeded to post an 0.84 ERA over 21 1/3 frames for Washington.  Speculatively, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Nats themselves perhaps check in on Holland again, given that the Nationals are still looking for bullpen reinforcements.

D'Backs Should Have More Financial "Freedom" After Greinke Trade

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  • Now that the Diamondbacks have dealt Zack Greinke, GM Mike Hazen estimates the team could have around $20MM in extra funds in both 2020 and 2021.  “I’m assuming there’s going to be some more freedom to explore some things we haven’t explored in the past,” Hazen told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, though specifics aren’t yet known about what the club’s payroll capacity will be without Greinke on the books.  2018 and 2019 saw the D’Backs post the two highest Opening Day payrolls in club history, topping out at over $131.5MM at the start of the 2018 season.  Now, the D’Backs have just under $68MM in guaranteed money for 2020, though that number will increase significantly due to arbitration raises.  While it doesn’t seem likely that the Snakes will again approach $206.5MM on a future signing, Hazen didn’t feel the Greinke contract was a mistake given how well the ace righty pitched, crediting the much-maligned former D’Backs front office led by Tony La Russa and Dave Stewart.  “They were right on Zack Greinke.  We weren’t able to put it together the way we would have hoped while he was here,” Hazen said.  “But they were right on him. It was a good deal.”

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