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Dodgers Acquire Connor Joe From Braves

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The Dodgers have acquired infielder/outfielder Connor Joe from the Braves for international bonus pool space, according to Dodger Insider (Twitter link).

This is the second trade of the year involving Joe, a 2014 first-round pick who went from Pittsburgh to Atlanta for utilityman Sean Rodriguez last month. The 25-year-old Joe went on to hit just .135/.233/.154 in 61 plate appearances with the Braves’ Double-A affiliate. He was far better this season at the Double-A level with the Pittsburgh organization, though he still only managed a modest .240/.338/.330 line in 282 trips to the plate.

It’s unclear how much money is involved in this swap, but both the Dodgers and Braves are in the penalty and unable to spend more than $300K on any single international prospect this year.

Braves Officially Sign Jihwan Bae

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The latest from the NL East:

  • Mets outfielder Michael Conforto suggested Saturday that he’s unsure if he’ll be able to slot into the team’s lineup on Opening Day next year, according to James Wagner of the New York Times (Twitter link). Conforto suffered a torn capsule in his left shoulder in late August, ending his season, and then underwent surgery earlier this month. The 24-year-old noted that the procedure should help stave off future shoulder dislocations, which would certainly be optimal for him and the Mets. Conforto emerged as a breakout performer and one of the few bright spots for the woebegone Mets before the injury, hitting .279/.384/.555 with 27 home runs in 440 plate appearances. Mets general manager Sandy Alderson said on the heels of Conforto’s surgery that the club’s optimistic he won’t have to alter his swing upon returning. He’s roughly six months away from resuming baseball activities.
  • Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper is “very close” to making his highly anticipated return, manager Dusty Baker told Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com and other reporters Saturday. Harper, out since Aug. 13 with injuries to his left knee and calf, could be back in Washington’s lineup as early as Monday, per Zuckerman. That would give the superstar a week to readjust to game action before the Nationals’ NLDS matchup against a to-be-determined opponent (likely the Cubs).
  • The Braves’ previously reported agreement with Korean shortstop prospect Jihwan Bae became an official signing Saturday, according to Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The Braves have high hopes for the 18-year-old Bae, whom special assistant Chad MacDonald heaped praise on Saturday. “It’s an elite runner, top-of-the-scale runner,” MacDonald said. “He’s very athletic. He stays at shortstop, he’s going to be a solid to plus defender there. His bat-to-ball skills are really good. There’s more power in the bat. If everything clicks, we have a left-handed version of Trea Turner, who I signed in San Diego. Again, maybe not that much power, but certainly the impact speed and defense, with bat-to-ball skills and a left-handed hitter.” As MacDonald mentioned, he was in the Padres’ front office when they inked Turner after selecting him 13th in the 2014 draft. Turner has since blossomed into a star with the Nats.

Braves Likely To Exercise Tyler Flowers’ Option

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The Braves’ catcher tandem will remain intact next season. After re-signing backup Kurt Suzuki to a one-year contract on Saturday, general manager John Coppolella told Mark Bowman of MLB.com and other reporters the Braves are “strongly leaning toward” exercising starter Tyler Flowers’ $4MM club option for 2018. Buying out the O’Connell Sports Management client would cost the team $300K (Twitter link).

“This has worked great this year and we want to see if it can work as well in 2018 too,” Coppolella said of the Flowers-Suzuki tandem (via David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, on Twitter).

Retaining Flowers should be an easy call for the Braves, who have witnessed the 31-year-old turn into a quality all-around backstop in their uniform. Flowers took an unusual route to do so, as he first joined the Braves as a 33rd-round pick in 2005 before heading to the White Sox in a 2008 trade (one that saw Javier Vazquez go to Atlanta) and then returning to his native Georgia as a free agent in December 2015.

During his two seasons as a Brave, Flowers has mixed above-average offensive production – including a .283/.377/.444 line in 345 plate appearances this year – with brilliant work as a receiver. While Flowers threw out a mere 5 percent of attempted base stealers last year and has caught only 19 percent this season, ranking well below the 27 percent league average, both Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner have placed him among the game’s very best pitch framers in the same time period.

All told, Flowers and Suzuki have been worth 4.5 fWAR this year, making them one of the top backstop duos in the majors in their first season together. Even if there’s some regression from the Braves’ catchers in 2018, they should still form a cost-effective pairing at a combined $7.5MM.

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Braves Extend Kurt Suzuki Through 2018

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The Braves have signed catcher Kurt Suzuki, to a one-year deal.  MLB.com’s Mark Bowman initially reported (Twitter link) that the two sides were finalizing a new contract, with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reporting that the deal will pay Suzuki $3.5MM in 2018.  Suzuki is represented by the MVP Sports Group.

Suzuki, who turns 34 in October, came to Atlanta last winter on a one-year deal worth $1.5MM in guaranteed money.  He more than delivered on that agreement, producing a career-high 18 homers as well as a .271/.343/.525 slash line over 287 plate appearances.  Remarkably, Suzuki has an .868 OPS both at home and on the road, so his unexpected breakout at the plate can’t be entirely chalked up to the Braves’ move into hitter-friendly SunTrust Park.

Suzuki has markedly improved his hard-hit ball rate and his contact rate for pitches outside the strike zone, and his .255 Isolated Slugging mark is the third-best of any catcher with at least 275 PA this season (just one percentage point ahead of fourth-place Gary Sanchez).  Suzuki’s defense continues to garner below-average grades as per StatCorner and Baseball Prospectus, though that is a tradeoff the Braves are willing to make given Suzuki’s bat; it also doesn’t hurt that battery-mate Tyler Flowers is one of the league’s top defensive catchers.

Between Suzuki and Flowers, the Braves have generated 4.4 fWAR from the catcher position this season, more than any other team in baseball save the Buster Posey-powered Giants.  Atlanta has a $4MM club option on Flowers that seems like a no-brainer to be exercised, so the Braves head into next season looking very strong behind the plate.

Rosenthal notes that talks between Suzuki and the Braves had been ongoing “for weeks” about a new contract, so the catcher was seemingly pretty unlikely to ever hit the open market.  Still, teams looking for catching help this winter now have one less ’plan B’ type of option behind the three backstops (Jonathan Lucroy, Welington Castillo, Alex Avila) who are bound to attract the most attention amongst free agent catchers.

Braves Notes: Teheran, McGuirk, Snitker, Hart

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  • Also from Gammons’ piece, he expects the Braves to be listening to offers for Julio Teheran during the GM Meetings in November.  Teheran drew some trade buzz this past summer, with Atlanta reportedly holding onto Teheran since it was unable to land another top-tier arm to replace the right-hander as the rotation’s ace.  Teheran has struggled to a 4.52 ERA over 175 1/3 IP this season, though that inflated number has been due to a lack of success at SunTrust Park — Teheran has a 6.23 ERA at home this season and a 2.84 ERA on the road.  While Teheran’s swinging-strike and contact rates have also gone in the wrong direction, between his controllable contract and the idea that he would rebound in another ballpark, the Braves would certainly garner quite a bit of interest in trade talks.
  • Braves CEO and chairman Terry McGuirk told MLB.com’s Mark Bowman and other media that the team won’t make any management decisions until after the season is over, though McGuirk did praise manager Brian Snitker and president of baseball operations John Hart.  McGuirk expects Hart, whose deal is up after the season, to return in 2018.  The Braves hold a club option on Snitker’s services for next year, though there has been speculation that the team could be exploring a change in the dugout, with FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman hearing from a source that the Braves are currently “leaning toward” hiring a new manager.  Snitker will meet with the front office to learn about his future, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that this meeting could take place as soon as today.

Braves Weighing Snitker's Future

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  • The Braves are still weighing whether to retain manager Brian Snitker beyond the 2017 season, as Heyman notes in his column and as Ken Rosenthal details at greater length for The Athletic (subscription required and strongly recommended). Per Rosenthal, the Braves don’t need to make a decision on Snitker’s 2018 option until five days after the World Series, so they still have some time to mull things over. Snitker tells Rosenthal that he’d like to continue managing for “a while,” though he says he’s not sweating the decision as it’s largely out of his control. Heyman cites a source in reporting that Atlanta is “leaning toward” making a change, though nothing’s been set in stone yet, and it’s possibly that Snitker’s option is simply exercised without any extension being issued. Rosenthal, meanwhile, takes a deeper dive into some of the reported tensions in the Braves organization and how they impact the managerial decision.

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Braves Seeking Public Funding For Spring Training Facility

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  • The Braves appear to be closing in on yet another stadium deal with significant taxpayer money involved. As Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes, construction on a new Spring Training facility in North Port, Florida will begin in short order — if the deal is approved today by the city’s commissioners. In addition to the well-documented move to SunTrust Park for the major-league club, the Braves have found accommodating local governments to help build stadiums for several team-owned minor-league affiliates in recent years. This latest project, in Sarasota County, has already ballooned to just over $100MM in projected costs — just over half of which will be the responsibility of the ballclub.

Should The Braves Exercise Their Option Over R.A. Dickey?

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As he closes in on his 43rd birthday, Braves knuckler R.A. Dickey has shown no signs of slowing down. He has settled in as an average starter, sure, but he’s not your average “average starter,” either.

Dickey is no longer close to being the Cy Young winner he was in 2012. Since then, though, he has emerged as the game’s preeminent provider of league-average innings. From 2013 through the present, Dickey has averaged 200 frames annually. And he has not strayed more than five percentage points in either direction from the mean ERA in any of those years.

That’s what Atlanta thought it was signing up for when it inked the Tennessee native to a one-year, $7.5MM deal with a $8MM club option ($500K buyout) for 2018. And that’s just what the club got. Until a few rough outings in September, Dickey was allowing less than four earned per nine; now, though, he’s right back at a 4.41 ERA through 175 1/3 frames on the year — nearly identical to his results last year and good for a 101 ERA-. Dickey carries 6.6 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 on the season, right in line with his recent work.

All told, it seems mostly reasonable to anticipate that Dickey will produce similar results next year. Fielding-independent pitching metrics have long suggested good fortune, but Dickey has consistently outperformed them and generated low batting averages on balls in play. It doesn’t take much imagination to view him as an outlier whose value isn’t appropriate measured by those metrics and who can also be expected to defy aging curves.

Dickey can be retained for the same rate of pay. So, do the Braves still want and need him?

Atlanta has already parted with the two other veterans it acquired last winter, Jaime Garcia and Bartolo Colon, though both were set for free agency regardless. The team probably has identified three younger starters to carry in the rotation next year, with Sean Newcomb joining holdovers Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz. None of that trio has been consistently excellent, though all have had their moments and ought to retain their roles. (Newcomb owns the best ERA of the bunch at 4.32, but he has only been asked/able to throw 89 2/3 innings over 17 starts.) Otherwise, the Braves could give a bigger opportunity to Lucas Sims or hope that Max Fried and/or Luiz Gohara win jobs in camp.

There are other arms coming behind this group, too, and Atlanta is rumored yet again to be eyeing more established but still-controllable starters on the trade market. In honesty, though, the club needs reliable innings — if for no other reason than to avoid a situation where the club is forced either to press its young arms too hard or instead find marginal big leaguers to plug any rotation gaps that may arise (as they are wont to do). If the organization really hopes to move toward true contention, then it’s hard to imagine it relying on what’s available in-house.

While other short-term free agent targets may offer more upside, even the best bounceback targets are just that — pitchers with talent but injury or other questions that weigh down their value and appeal. If the Braves prefer to roll the dice, they can send Dickey packing and try their luck on someone else. Or, perhaps, they can bid adieu to the grizzled veteran and aim much higher in trade and/or free agency — though the roster arguably isn’t ready enough for the club to take the kinds of long-term financial risks that led to the most recent rebuild.

Ultimately, there are some pretty compelling reasons for Atlanta to retain the steady veteran. But it’s not quite a slam dunk, with some imaginable scenarios in which the team might simply prefer to take a different course. Some may consider the possibility that the Braves could pick up the option and trade Dickey; while that’s not out of the question, it seems unlikely a team would do that with a veteran whose contract doesn’t carry significant surplus value and who signed with that team due in no small part to geographical considerations. So, that option won’t be broken out in the poll.

How do you think the Braves ought to proceed? (Link for app users.)

Braves See Nick Markakis' 2018 Salary As "Fair Value"

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  • The Braves know they’ll have to eat most of Matt Kemp’s remaining salary to facilitate a trade this winter, though the team is less willing to kick in money in a potential Nick Markakis deal, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman writes.  Markakis is set to earn $10.5MM in 2018 (the last year of his contract), which the Braves see as “fair value” for the veteran outfielder, so they aren’t likely to cover “much or any” of that salary.  Of course, Atlanta’s stance could change depending on what another team is willing to offer for Markakis.  Over three seasons with the Braves, Markakis has 3.4 fWAR and is hitting .276/.357/.390 with eight homers over 616 PA in 2017.  Earlier today on MLBTR, Connor Byrne listed the Braves’ corner outfield situation as one of the Three Needs the club must address this winter.

Three Needs: Atlanta Braves

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This is the latest edition in MLBTR’s Three Needs series. Click to read versions on the Tigers, Reds, Pirates, Giants and Mets.

The Braves were among baseball’s absolute worst teams in each of the previous two seasons, finishing near the bottom of the majors in both wins and run differential. While they’re still below average in those categories (22nd in winning percentage, 19th in run differential), there has been progress this season. At 67-80, the Braves should surpass the 70-victory mark for the first time since 2014. That would obviously be a baby step, but moving forward with a healthy Freddie Freeman and the game’s No. 1-ranked farm system give the Braves legitimate reasons for hope heading into 2018. A productive offseason from general manager John Coppolella probably wouldn’t transform Atlanta into a playoff contender overnight, though pushing toward the .500 mark next year wouldn’t be an unreasonable goal. Here’s how Coppolella could make that happen…

1.) Acquire a front-line starter:

This is certainly a lot easier said than done, but the Braves’ actions indicate that they’re motivated to add a top-caliber starter. They’ve attempted to trade for Chris Sale, Chris Archer, Sonny Gray, Jose Quintana and Michael Fulmer, to name some high-profile hurlers, dating back to last season. Sale, Gray and Quintana have since switched teams, taking them off the table for Atlanta, but Coppolella could still try for Archer and Fulmer, among others.

Fulmer, the Braves’ primary target at this year’s non-waiver trade deadline, seems more likely than Archer to end up on the move in the offseason. The Tigers are at the very beginning of what should be a long rebuild, after all, so it would behoove them to listen to offers Fulmer. Considering how strong their pipeline is, the Braves may be in better position than anyone else to land Fulmer, who will enter his age-25 season and final pre-arbitration campaign in 2018.

There are a couple potential free agents to keep an eye on, too, with two-way superstar Shohei Otani reportedly set to emigrate from Japan and fellow countryman Masahiro Tanaka a possibility to opt out of his contract with the Yankees. As a 23-year-old ace who won’t significantly cash in because of the new collective bargaining agreement, most teams will kick the tires on the flamethrowing Otani during the offseason. The Braves could be among those clubs, though they’re in an especially disadvantageous position from an international spending standpoint. Where Otani will sign is extremely difficult to forecast, especially when factoring in his offensive prowess. For instance, will he strongly consider heading to the National League, where his only at-bats are likely to come on days he pitches and in pinch-hitting situations? That’s not a concern with Tanaka – who, unlike ace-caliber free agents-to-be in Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, is on the right side of 30. Set to turn 29 in November, Tanaka won’t come cheap, as vacating his pact with the Yankees would mean leaving $67MM on the table.

Whether it’s one of the above starters or another high-end type, the front of the rotation is certainly an area worth addressing for the Braves. The club’s starters rank 22nd in the majors in fWAR (6.7) – a good portion of that (1.5) came from now-Yankee Jaime Garcia, whose final Braves start was back on July 21 – and 23rd in ERA (4.89).

2.) Upgrade at third base:

The performance of Johan Camargo has prevented third base from being a complete disaster this year for Atlanta, but continuing to count on him would be a gamble. While the 23-year-old rookie has given the Braves respectable production (.303/.336/.474 in 225 plate appearances), it’s smoke and mirrors to a large degree. Camargo’s .373 batting average on balls in play isn’t going to last, and his success has come in spite of a K/BB ratio (.23) that’s well below the league average (.40). Further, as Statcast shows (via Baseball Savant), Camargo’s expected weighted on-base average (.299) pales in comparison to his actual wOBA (.347).

Fortunately for the Braves, there will be more proven options available in free agency. The length of a potential commitment they make at the hot corner could depend in part on how far away the Braves think prospects Kevin Maitan and Austin Riley are. For example, if they’re counting on either to come up in the next couple years, that could rule out Royals slugger Mike Moustakas, who will easily score the largest contract among impending free agent third basemen. Less expensive choices will include Todd Frazier, Eduardo Nunez and, if he’s willing to move from shortstop to third, Zack Cozart. Frazier or Cozart would provide some punch to a Braves lineup that ranks 27th in ISO (.152), while Nunez would give a team in need of a baserunning boost a notable jolt in that area. Nunez also happens to be an above-average hitter, and the Braves don’t have enough of those.

The trade route could also be a viable avenue, with Chase Headley (Yankees), Jed Lowrie (Athletics) and Asdrubal Cabrera (Mets) standing out as Band-Aid types who might end up on the block in the offseason.

3.) Improve the corner outfield:

Center fielder Ender Inciarte has been terrific during his two years as a Brave, but they haven’t given him adept complements in either season. That’s going to change sometime soon when all-world prospect Ronald Acuna comes to the majors, but the Braves could still use at least one better corner outfielder in the meantime.

While Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis would’ve made for an appealing duo several years ago, their days as decent starters appear long gone. Those two have combined for just 0.4 fWAR this year, making them the main culprits behind the Atlanta outfield’s 29th-place ranking in that category (2.1). The Braves’ nine non-Inciarte outfielders have combined for minus-0.6 fWAR. Even including Inciarte’s production, 26 individual major league outfielders have matched or bettered the output of the Braves’ group of 10.

All of the above is to say that the Braves need to stop living in the past with at least one of the Kemp-Markakis tandem. The problem is that they may be stuck with the pair. Kemp, who will turn 33 next Saturday, is owed $21.5MM per year through 2019. The Braves would likely have to swallow nearly that entire sum to have any hope of moving him. It would be easier (but still difficult) to deal the soon-to-be 34-year-old Markakis, who’s the better and cheaper of the two (he’s due $10.5MM in 2018, the final season of his contract). Continuing with Markakis as a regular until Acuna debuts at some point in 2018 wouldn’t be catastrophic – at least he still gets on base – but adding another corner man should still be a priority.

Among impending free agents, Jarrod Dyson stands out as a clear upgrade who wouldn’t require the Braves to break the bank. Dyson will turn 34 next summer and doesn’t offer much as a hitter, which are concerns, but the current Mariners center fielder is outstanding on the bases and with the glove. It just so happens that the Braves need help in those areas.

Alternatively, Andrew McCutchen (Pirates), Avisail Garcia (White Sox), Brett Gardner (Yankees) and Stephen Piscotty (Cardinals), to name a few, may be worth looking into as possible trade candidates.

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