Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 15 years.
In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.
As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.
One other note: it’s increasingly common for teams to negotiate one-year deals with club options or mutual options covering an additional arbitration season. We’ve noted all of the players who have an option for the 2025 season under the terms of a prior agreement. If the team buys out that option, the player does not become a free agent. He simply is paid whatever buyout (if any) was agreed upon under the terms of the prior agreement and heads back through the arbitration process again this winter.
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The projections:
Angels (10)
- Taylor Ward (5.164): $13.7MM
- Brock Burke (5.045): $2MM
- Connor Brogdon (4.090): $1MM
- Jo Adell (4.085): $5.5MM
- Carson Fulmer (4.018): $1.2MM
- Reid Detmers (3.159): $2.6MM
- Jose Soriano (3.121): $3.2MM
- Carter Kieboom (3.009): $800K
- Logan O’Hoppe (3.008): $2.9MM
- Zach Neto (2.170): $4.1MM
Astros (16)
- Mauricio Dubon (5.162): $5.8MM
- Steven Okert (5.089): $2MM
- Luis Garcia (5.083): $2.2MM
- Ramon Urias (5.025): $4.4MM
- Bryan Abreu (5.022): $5.9MM
- Enyel De Los Santos (5.015): $2.1MM
- Chas McCormick (4.161): $3.4MM
- Isaac Paredes (4.160): $9.3MM
- Jesus Sanchez (4.118): $6.5MM
- Jake Meyers (4.044): $3.5MM
- Jeremy Pena (4.000): $7.9MM
- Hunter Brown (3.035): $5.7MM
- Yainer Diaz (3.035): $4.5MM
- Hayden Wesneski (2.170): $1.5MM
- Bennett Sousa (2.156): $1.1MM
- Taylor Trammell (2.144): $900K
Athletics (5)
- Austin Wynns (5.017): $1.8MM
- Shea Langeliers (3.051): $5.1MM
- JJ Bleday (3.029): $2.2MM
- Ken Waldichuk (2.150): $900K
- Luis Medina (2.149): $900K
Blue Jays (7)
- Daulton Varsho (5.128): $9.7MM
- Eric Lauer (5.091): $4.4MM
- Dillon Tate (5.018): $1.7MM
- Nick Sandlin (4.157): $2MM
- Ernie Clement (3.168): $4.3MM
- Ryan Burr (3.109): $800K
- Tyler Heineman (3.066): $1MM
Braves (9)
- Jake Fraley (5.097): $3.6MM
- Joel Payamps (4.117): $3.4MM
- Jose Suarez (4.064): $1.5MM
- Alek Manoah (4.063): $2.2MM
- Dylan Lee (3.150): $1.9MM
- Eli White (3.140): $1.2MM
- Vidal Brujan (3.014): $800K
- Joey Wentz (2.166): $1.1MM
- Nick Allen (2.164): $1.5MM
Brewers (7)
- Jake Bauers (5.084): $2MM
- Andrew Vaughn (4.142): $7.8MM
- William Contreras (4.112): $11.1MM (Brewers hold a $12MM club option with a $100K buyout)
- Nick Mears (4.022): $1.6MM
- Trevor Megill (4.002): $4.2MM
- Garrett Mitchell (3.040): $1MM
- Brice Turang (2.165): $4.4MM
Cardinals (9)
- Jorge Alcala (5.165): $2.1MM
- JoJo Romero (5.045): $4.4MM
- John King (4.148): $2.1MM
- Lars Nootbaar (4.076): $5.7MM
- Brendan Donovan (4.000): $5.4MM
- Andre Pallante (3.145): $3.4MM
- Nolan Gorman (3.114): $2.9MM
- Alec Burleson (3.029): $3.5MM
- Matthew Liberatore (2.144): $2.8MM
Cubs (4)
- Reese McGuire (5.110): $1.9MM
- Justin Steele (4.143): $6.55MM
- Eli Morgan (4.091): $1.1MM
- Javier Assad (3.027): $1.9MM
Diamondbacks (11)
- Ildemaro Vargas (5.129): $1.4MM
- A.J. Puk (5.124): $3.3MM
- Ryan Thompson (5.095): $3.9MM
- Kevin Ginkel (5.033): $3MM
- John Curtiss (4.078): $1.2MM
- Pavin Smith (4.015): $2.4MM
- Alek Thomas (3.103): $2.2MM
- Kyle Nelson (3.081): $1MM
- Jake McCarthy (3.074): $1.9MM
- Gabriel Moreno (3.061): $2.4MM
- Ryne Nelson (3.020): $3.3MM
Dodgers (9)
- Brusdar Graterol (5.167): $2.8MM
- Tony Gonsolin (5.152): $5.4MM
- Evan Phillips (5.136): $6.1MM
- Alex Vesia (5.078): $4.1MM (Dodgers hold a $3.55MM club option with a $50K buyout)
- Anthony Banda (4.135): $1.7MM
- Brock Stewart (4.093): $1.4MM
- Ben Rortvedt (3.135): $1.3MM
- Michael Grove (3.031): $800K
- Alex Call (2.161): $1.5MM
Giants (5)
- JT Brubaker (5.162): $2.1MM
- Andrew Knizner (5.090): $1.3MM
- Joey Lucchesi (5.047): $2MM
- Ryan Walker (2.136): $2.5MM
- Patrick Bailey (2.136): $2.2MM
Guardians (8)
- Kolby Allard (5.004): $1.9MM
- Sam Hentges (4.157): $1.3375MM
- Steven Kwan (4.000): $8.8MM
- Ben Lively (3.133): $2.7MM
- Nolan Jones (3.007): $2MM
- Will Brennan (2.155): $900K
- David Fry (2.154): $1.2MM
- Matt Festa (2.153): $1MM
Marlins (7)
- Anthony Bender (4.153): $2.3MM
- Braxton Garrett (3.168): $1.53MM
- Edward Cabrera (3.147): $3.7MM
- Ryan Weathers (3.066): $1.5MM
- Andrew Nardi (3.053): $800K
- Max Meyer (2.166): $1.3MM
- Calvin Faucher (2.156): $1.9MM
Mariners (10)
- Trent Thornton (5.148): $2.5MM
- Randy Arozarena (5.129): $18.2MM
- Logan Gilbert (4.144): $10MM
- Gabe Speier (4.000): $1.7MM
- George Kirby (3.151): $5.4MM
- Tayler Saucedo (3.146): $1.1MM
- Matt Brash (3.121): $1.8MM
- Luke Raley (3.106): $1.8MM
- Gregory Santos (3.055): $800K
- Bryce Miller (2.153): $2.4MM
Mets (9)
- Luis Torrens (5.105): $2.2MM
- Tyrone Taylor (5.093): $3.6MM
- David Peterson (5.089): $7.6MM
- Nick Madrigal (5.087): $1.35MM
- Tylor Megill (4.031): $2.6MM
- Max Kranick (3.011): $1MM
- Huascar Brazoban (2.170): $1.3MM
- Francisco Alvarez (2.164): $2.4MM
- Reed Garrett (2.143): $1.4MM
Nationals (9)
- Jorge Alfaro (5.160): $1MM
- Luis Garcia Jr. (4.142): $7MM
- Josiah Gray (4.075): $1.35MM
- Mason Thompson (4.022): $1MM
- MacKenzie Gore (4.000): $4.7MM
- Riley Adams (3.171): $1.5MM
- CJ Abrams (3.130): $5.6MM
- Jake Irvin (2.152): $3.3MM
- Cade Cavalli (2.141): $1.3MM
Orioles (14)
- Ryan Mountcastle (5.105): $7.8MM
- Keegan Akin (5.083): $3MM
- Dylan Carlson (5.067): $1.5MM
- Trevor Rogers (5.047): $6MM
- Tyler Wells (4.132): $2.7MM
- Jose Castillo (4.112): $1.7MM
- Dean Kremer (4.112): $5.1MM
- Adley Rutschman (4.000): $6.8MM
- Felix Bautista (4.000): $2.1MM
- Kyle Bradish (3.160): $2.8MM
- Yennier Cano (3.065): $1.8MM
- Gunnar Henderson (3.036): $6.6MM
- Alex Jackson (3.036): $1.8MM
- Albert Suarez (3.019): $900K
Padres (7)
- Adrian Morejon (5.140): $3.6MM
- Jason Adam (5.132): $6.8MM
- Gavin Sheets (4.076): $4.3MM
- JP Sears (3.065): $3.5MM
- Luis Campusano (3.003): $1MM
- Mason Miller (2.166): $3.4MM
- Freddy Fermin (2.165: $1.8MM
Phillies (9)
- Jesus Luzardo (5.165): $10.4MM
- Edmundo Sosa (5.140): $3.9MM
- Alec Bohm (5.106): $10.3MM
- Garrett Stubbs (4.148): $925K
- Brandon Marsh (4.078): $4.5MM
- Jhoan Duran (4.000): $7.6MM
- Bryson Stott (4.000): $5.8MM
- Tanner Banks (3.092): $1.2MM
- Rafael Marchan (3.006): $1MM
Pirates (9)
- Dennis Santana (5.126): $3.4MM
- Johan Oviedo (4.078): $2MM
- Joey Bart (4.020): $2.7MM
- Justin Lawrence (3.167): $1.2MM
- Yohan Ramirez (3.135): $1.2MM
- Colin Holderman (3.120): $1.7MM
- Oneil Cruz (3.110): $3.6MM
- Dauri Moreta (3.056): $800K
- Jack Suwinski (2.170): $1.7MM
Rangers (9)
- Jonah Heim (5.097): $6MM
- Adolis Garcia (5.095): $12.1MM
- Josh Sborz (5.055): $1.1MM
- Jacob Webb (5.046): $2MM
- Sam Haggerty (5.007): $1.4MM
- Josh Smith (3.129): $3MM
- Jake Burger (3.127): $3.5MM
- Ezequiel Duran (3.050): $1.4MM
- Josh Jung (3.023): $2.9MM
Rays (16)
- Shane McClanahan (4.158): $3.6MM
- Cole Sulser (4.096): $1.2MM
- Taylor Walls (4.092): $2MM (Rays hold a $2.45MM club option with a $50K buyout)
- Griffin Jax (4.091): $3.6MM
- Garrett Cleavinger (4.060): $2.1MM
- Shane Baz (3.158): $3.1MM
- Nick Fortes (3.149): $2.4MM
- Christopher Morel (3.117): $2.6MM
- Stuart Fairchild (3.114): $900K
- Josh Lowe (3.093): $2.9MM
- Bryan Baker (3.049): $1.5MM
- Ryan Pepiot (3.005): $3.7MM
- Alex Faedo (2.169): $800K
- Kevin Kelly (2.156): $1MM
- Richie Palacios (2.156): $1MM
- Edwin Uceta (2.150): $1.4MM
Red Sox (9)
- Nathaniel Lowe (5.145): $13.5MM
- Tanner Houck (4.100): $3.95MM
- Jarren Duran (3.155): $8.4MM (Red Sox hold an $8MM club option with a $50K buyout)
- Kutter Crawford (3.136): $2.75MM
- Romy Gonzalez (3.083): $1.8MM
- Connor Wong (3.079): $1.6MM
- Triston Casas (3.032): $1.7MM
- Josh Winckowski: (3.003): $800K
- Brennan Bernardino (2.150): $1.1MM
Reds (13)
- Brady Singer (5.156): $11.9MM
- Santiago Espinal (5.149): $2.9MM
- Gavin Lux (5.114): $5MM
- Tyler Stephenson (5.056): $6.4MM
- Ian Gibaut (4.077): $1.5MM
- Sam Moll (4.023): $1.2MM
- Nick Lodolo (4.000): $4.3MM
- Graham Ashcraft (3.130): $1.4MM
- TJ Friedl (3.112): $4.9MM
- Tony Santillan (3.099): $2.4MM
- Spencer Steer (3.035): $4.5MM
- Will Benson (3.003): $1.7MM
- Matt McLain (2.140): $2.6MM
Rockies (7)
- Thairo Estrada (5.153): $3.8MM (Estrada’s contract contains a $7MM mutual option with a $750K buyout)
- Jimmy Herget (4.069): $1.5MM
- Mickey Moniak (4.027): $4.2MM
- Lucas Gilbreath (3.150): $900K
- Ryan Feltner (3.071): $2.3MM
- Tyler Freeman (3.046): $1.8MM
- Brenton Doyle (2.161): $3.2MM
Royals (15)
- Taylor Clarke (5.148): $1.9MM
- Kris Bubic (5.135): $6MM
- John Schreiber (5.027): $3.8MM
- Jonathan India (5.000): $7.4MM
- Kyle Wright (4.151): $1.8MM
- Kyle Isbel (4.043): $2.7MM
- Bailey Falter (3.138): $3.3MM
- Daniel Lynch IV (3.136): $1.3MM
- Sam Long (3.121): $950K
- Vinnie Pasquantino (3.101): $5.4MM
- Angel Zerpa (3.082): $1.2MM
- Michael Massey (3.068): $2MM
- MJ Melendez (3.016): $2.65MM
- Maikel Garcia (2.168): $4.8MM
- James McArthur (2.150): $800K
Tigers (14)
- Tarik Skubal (5.114): $17.8MM
- Casey Mize (5.111): $5.4MM
- Jake Rogers (5.040): $2.9MM
- Will Vest (4.100): $3.3MM
- Zach McKinstry (4.099): $3.5MM
- Matt Vierling (4.026): $3.1MM
- Jason Foley (3.150): $3.15MM
- Alex Lange (3.145): $900K
- Andy Ibanez (3.133): $1.8MM
- Riley Greene (3.110): $6.6MM
- Spencer Torkelson (3.076): $5.1MM
- Kerry Carpenter (3.057): $3.5MM
- Beau Brieske (3.056): $1.3MM
- Tyler Holton (3.047): $1.7MM
Twins (10)
- Genesis Cabrera (5.149): $1.4MM
- Ryan Jeffers (5.089): $6.6MM
- Justin Topa (5.044): $1.7MM (Twins hold a $2MM club option with a $225K buyout)
- Michael Tonkin (5.044): $1.4MM
- Bailey Ober (4.093): $4.6MM
- Joe Ryan (4.033): $5.8MM
- Trevor Larnach (4.014): $4.7MM
- Royce Lewis (3.142): $3MM
- Anthony Misiewicz (3.082): $1.1MM
- Cole Sands (3.017): $1.3MM
White Sox (2)
- Mike Tauchman (5.143): $3.4MM
- Steven Wilson (3.166): $1.5MM
Yankees (14)
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (5.075): $10.2MM
- David Bednar (5.073): $9MM
- Mark Leiter Jr. (5.031): $3MM
- Clarke Schmidt (4.148): $4.9MM
- Camilo Doval (4.071): $6.6MM
- Jake Cousins (3.091): $841K
- Ian Hamilton (3.081): $941K
- Luis Gil (3.073): $2.1MM
- Scott Effross (3.063): $800K
- Jake Bird (3.051): $1MM
- Oswaldo Cabrera (3.050): $1.2MM
- Fernando Cruz (3.035): $1.3MM
- Anthony Volpe (3.000): $3.9MM
- Jose Caballero (2.170): $1.9MM
Little confused. Elly has more or as much service time as McLain. Why isn’t he arb eligible?
Elly has 2.118, and cut off for Super Two somewhere around 2.130ish…just falling short most likely.
I checked. McLain’s first game was on 5-18-23; Elly’s first game was on 6-6-23. So Elly just falls short as MarioP mentioned.
Your right. Technically McClain has more service time than Elly. Still a chance Elly can be eligible for Super 2 depending on when the cutoff is.
Elly & Abbott could easily qualify for the Reds
2024: 2.132
2023: 2.118
2022: 2.128
2021: 2.116
2020: 2.125
2019: 2.115
2018: 2.134
2017: 2.123
2016: 2.131
2015: 2.130
2014: 2.133
2013: 2.122
2012: 2.140
2011: 2.146
2010: 2.122
2009: 2.139
I know there are a couple of players who could qualify that’s not mentioned here. To me it seems like there are a lot more players who could be super 2 eligible this winter.
It’s the top 22% of the 2 year class (who spent at least 1/2 the 2025 season on the active roster or IL), so the amount of players that qualify doesn’t change by much year over year just the service time required to reach that 22%. Usually about 30 players.
You are right. I think if I’m not mistaken anyone who has 86 days of service time and is at the cutoff or above it becomes eligible.
MLBTR has 37 players listed above as possible qualifiers (if I counted correctly) and the minimum service is 2.136 so the Reds probably got lucky they’ll save some money on those 2 players if these service amounts are all correct. Pretty sure those players will still qualify for money from the pre-arb pool though.
I wonder if the players union can figure out a proposal to recalibrate arbitration salaries. Guys like
Neto
Langeliera
Turang
Etc
Are getting vastly underpaid.
Probably don’t want to propose recalibration….would certainly suggest the opposite need to recalibrate for the larger number that are vastly overpaid.
There’s an easy way to recalibrate salaries for overpaid players. It’s called non-tender.
They do have a $50M pool that gets distributed among them to try and lessen the imbalance a little bit
Actually I double checked and this only goes to pre-arbitration players so never mind
The union reps are typically older guys who primarily care about cash for free agent contracts and feel like they’ve paid their dues so should the next wave through.
The solution would be to allow arbitrators to use salaries for all players at a position rather than only players with similar service time. The current system is akin to an appraiser using home values for people who sold after 3 years rather than the current market rate for a home.
Gosolin just underwent his second TJ, he’s not going to get 5.4 mil. I think he’ll be non tendered. He wont be back until 2027 and the earliest.
He got $5.4m this season. Arbitration salaries don’t go down, so he’ll just get the same number again.
Unless he is non tendered and with all of the SP options available to LaD and his injury history, I think he is a very possible non-tender candidate.
Maybe with a minor league deal for 2 mil with various player opt outs as a back up deal.
Well yes, if he gets non-tendered, he’s not getting it. I took corrosive23’s comment to mean he didn’t think the player would get that in arbitration, which he will.
The team can, and very likely could non-tender him, but he still will have been awarded 5.4m in arbitration.
Canuckle – I think, but may be wrong, the non-tendered deadline is first in the process so, if that happens, I don’t think the process ever allows him to ever get 5.4 m in arbitration in 2025.
If they offer, it can go still go down and has in the past but not often but typically not much and only when a player loses most or a full season like TG did and could be a question mark for health going forward.
Right not just a bunch of what ifs – if LAD (who has all medicals) believes he is good to go for 2026, they probably offer and keep as depth / trade piece – they can afford it:
Gonsolin’s 2026 Salary can be reduced by no more than 20% as he received a salary of 5.4 M$ in both 2024 and 2025 (his 2024 salary was 3.4 M$ base + 2 M$ in earned incentives from 2023).
RULE: The club’s offer must be at least the MLB minimum salary, and, in most cases, must be at least 80% of the player’s previous year’s salary and at least 70% of the player’s salary from two seasons back. However, if the player received a raise in excess of 50% by a salary arbitration panel the previous season, a 20% maximum salary reduction from the previous season and a 30% maximum salary reduction from two seasons back does not apply, and the club only has to offer at least the MLB minimum salary.
Arb salaries can in fact go down…20% from the past year is max.
Orioles
Non-tender Mountcastle (he’s about 1.2M cheaper than I was guessing, but not worth this either)
Non-tender Cano – he’s lost it. I bet he’s cheap enough the Orioles do it though.
Try to sign Bautista for a 2 year deal where Year 1 is cheap, buy out a year of arb – very likely won’t pitch in ’26
Tender the others
Could cut loose Castillo and Carlson to save 3M
This list makes me think middling relievers are paid too much and catchers are paid too little.
Didn’t realize Tyrone Taylor has another year of control. Cool
Nate Lowe a non-tender candidate
ang – Yep he sure ain’t worth $13.5M.
The sweet autumn smell of non-tenders
How is JP Sears worth more than Mason Miller? I get he is a starter but he is really really bad.
JP’s been around longer and as a starter has pitched considerably more then Miller (558.2 IP vs. 160 IP)
He only gets 100 k more which is a reflection of his much less effective performance. If he was anywhere near Miller’s performance, he’d dwarf Millers offer, because starters always get more then relievers.
Thanks, that makes sense. I know the Padres will pick up his option because they need starters but I wish they wouldn’t. Batters thank their lucky stars when they see him on the rubber.
He is a year up on service class it looks like
Tanner Houck will miss 2026 with TJS, and then only have one year left before free agency. His 40-man spot over the offseason IMO would be better served by selecting a Rule 5 like Sandlin, Drohan, or Uberstine.
Hard to think George Kirby is projected at 5 million even though he’s been around for 4 seasons
wow. there are some players that are gonna be ‘non tendered’-not worth the projections.
go figure: Arozarena goes from $11+ to 18+
while Varsho (250ish ab’s/20hr/50ish rbi’s) goes from $8.2 to 9.7. D dosnt pay appparently
Yet Taylor ward hit 30 bombs with 100++ rbi’s and his is $13.7
Wonder who some of the bigger non tender candidates are going to be this winter