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Trade Deadline Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins are one of several "bubble" teams around the league who likely don't know yet whether they'll buy, sell, or do some combination of both prior to the July 31 trade deadline. It's been a season of peaks and valleys for a Twins club that started 4-11 before rallying with a 13-game winning streak and then floundering through a 9-18 June not long after losing their ace for upwards of three months.

Minnesota is a fascinating team to watch, as the Twins would have some very interesting rentals if they opt to sell but also have a deep and talented farm system if they decide to push for contention. They're four games out of a Wild Card spot and open the second half with series against the Rockies, Dodgers and Nationals. All of the uncertainty with regard to the deadline comes against a backdrop of an ownership group that has cut payroll over the past 24 months as they explore a potential sale of the team.

Record: 47-49 (Playoff probability 23.6%, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries available here.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Starting pitching, backup catcher, another bat, another reliever

Through early June, the Twins ranked among the game's best pitching staffs. Minnesota pitchers led the majors in walk rate, K-BB%, fWAR and SIERA while ranking top-five in strikeout rate, ERA and FIP. Top starter Pablo Lopez went down with a strained teres major muscle on June 3, and the pitching staff quickly began to unravel. Prospect Zebby Matthews hit the injured list just days after Lopez, though he's expected back shortly after the All-Star Break. Steady veteran Bailey Ober ran into catastrophic home run troubles while trying to pitch through a hip injury before finally landing on the injured list. Several short starts from the rotation snowballed and took a toll on the bullpen.

Joe Ryan is leading the Twins' staff in the absence of Lopez and Ober. Prospect David Festa has had a pair of awful starts (eight runs apiece) and seven decent ones otherwise. Fifth starter Chris Paddack has struggled. Simeon Woods Richardson was optioned after a poor stretch earlier this season but has provided a much-needed quality stretch over his past six starts: 30 2/3 innings, 1.47 ERA. He's down to a 3.95 ERA on the season (albeit with a 4.40 FIP and 4.65 SIERA).

The Twins could still use some more stability in the rotation. Paddack hasn't performed well and is a free agent at season's end. Festa and Matthews were top-100 prospects before debuting but have been inconsistent. Lopez and Ober are injured. Even Ryan, the current staff leader, missed the final two months of the 2024 season due to injury. Minnesota isn't likely to acquire anyone with a particularly lofty salary -- not amid a potential sale of the team and on the heels of an offseason punctuated by payroll limitations -- but there are still options to consider.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Cleveland Guardians

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A ten-game losing streak in late June and early July seemed to close the door on Guardians' chances, but the club then won six of its last seven games to regain some momentum heading into the All-Star break.  Cleveland doesn't play a single opponent with a winning record between now and July 31, so it certainly seems possible that the Guards can bank some more wins and put themselves more firmly back into the Wild Card race.  The Tigers' big lead in the AL Central likely makes that Cleveland's only path to the postseason, and 4.5 games and five other teams stand between the Guardians and the Mariners for the final AL card berth.

The Guardians are one of the more on-the-fence teams in baseball at the moment, and yet regardless of what happens between now and the July 31 deadline, the most probable scenario is that Cleveland will dip a toe in both the buying and selling directions.  If the club is still treading water by the deadline, some additions could still be made, even if they're perhaps more aimed towards reloading for 2026 than a significant push to contend this year.

Record: 46-49 (10.6% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entrants in this series, see this post.

Sell Mode + Potential Trade Chips

Impending free agents: Carlos Santana, Jakob Junis, Austin Hedges, Lane Thomas, Shane Bieber ($16MM player option for 2026, $4MM buyout), Paul Sewald ($10MM mutual option for 2026, $1MM buyout), John Means ($6MM club option for 2026)

Santana could be dealt whether or not the Guardians are contending, as the team would probably love to get the remainder of the veteran first baseman's $12MM salary off the books.  Young Kyle Manzardo has played well enough that Cleveland might entrust him with everyday first base duties, and clearing the 1B/DH situation would also free up more at-bats for David Fry, who is a DH-only player in his first season back from offseason elbow surgery.

The catch here is that Fry hasn't been hitting at all since being activated from the 60-day injured list, and Santana's modest 98 wRC+ still makes him one of the more productive hitters in a weak lineup.  Cleveland could look to play it both ways by dealing Santana, and then picking up a less-expensive, first base-capable player (probably a right-handed bat) to act as a complement to Manzardo.  Prospect C.J. Kayfus is a left-handed hitter but he could also be called up to help out at first base, as Kayfus has been shredding both Double-A and Triple-A pitching this year.

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Rays Agree To Deal With First-Round Pick Daniel Pierce

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The Rays reached a deal with first-round pick Daniel Pierce, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline. He receives a $4.3131MM signing bonus that is exactly $1MM below the slot value of the 14th overall selection.

Pierce is a slick-fielding prep infielder from Georgia. Pre-draft scouting reports from Baseball America, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, Keith Law of The Athletic and MLB Pipeline all pegged the University of Georgia commit as a mid-first round talent. That’s right where Pierce was selected, although his bonus is closer to the slot value of the 20th selection.

Scouts consider Pierce to be a no-doubt shortstop with a chance to be an excellent defender. BA credited him with plus marks for his speed, arm strength and glove. Law puts an even louder plus-plus grade on both Pierce’s speed and arm strength. There’s more debate about how much he’ll produce offensively. Pierce had an improved senior season and has a solid batting eye, but scouting reports project him with fringe-average grades for both his hitting ability and power.

Cutting a slight underslot deal should allow the Rays to go above the slot values for a few later high school draftees. Tampa Bay went to the prep ranks with both of their second-round selections (Cooper Flemming and Dean Moss) and their third-round pick, Taitn Gray.

Yankees To Designate Rico Garcia For Assignment

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10:17pm: Winans will indeed be recalled in the corresponding move, Sherman reports.

10:03pm: The Yankees are designating reliever Rico Garcia for assignment, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post. They’ll promote a fresh arm to take his spot in the bullpen tomorrow. The 40-man roster count drops to 39.

Garcia’s stint on the roster lasted a few days and one game. The Yanks had claimed him off waivers from the Mets during the All-Star Break. The 31-year-old righty tossed 2 2/3 innings during tonight’s bullpen game in Atlanta. He allowed three runs on as many hits and a pair of walks. Garcia surrendered a three-run homer to Ozzie Albies that quickly broke the game open in what would eventually be a 7-3 loss.

After throwing 53 pitches, Garcia would have been unavailable for the next few days. He’s out of options, so the Yankees couldn’t send him to the minors. As the eighth man in the bullpen, he gets bumped off so they can make a move tomorrow. Bringing up Allan Winans as a long reliever makes the most sense.

Winans and Michael Arias, who is pitching in High-A, are the only healthy pitchers on the 40-man roster who can be recalled unless someone else is going on the injured list. Clayton Beeter and Jayvien Sandridge have each been optioned within the past 15 days; Brent Headrick is on the Triple-A injured list.

Garcia had worked 4 2/3 scoreless innings over two appearances with the Mets earlier this month. He’d missed plenty of bats in Triple-A before being called up. Garcia struck out 27.4% of batters faced across 30 1/3 minor league frames, but he also walked nearly 15% of opponents. He’ll likely be placed back on waivers in the next few days.

Blue Jays Agree To Terms With First-Rounder JoJo Parker

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The Blue Jays have reached agreement with eighth overall pick JoJo Parker on a $6.2MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline. That’s a few hundred thousand dollars below the $6.81MM slot value.

Parker is a 6’2″ infielder who was drafted out of a Mississippi high school. A left-handed hitter, Parker ranked between seventh and tenth on pre-draft rankings from each of MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and The Athletic’s Keith Law. Evaluators uniformly praise him as one of the best hitters in the class. McDaniel, who was highest on Parker among the aforementioned prospect rankers, suggests he could be a plus-plus hitter with average power in his prime.

While he played shortstop in high school, Parker is expected to move off the position by the time he reaches the majors. Scouting reports suggest he could fit at third base, though there’s a chance he’ll need to move to a corner outfield spot. That’d put more pressure on Parker’s bat, but it’s possible he could hit enough to profile as a regular anywhere on the diamond.

Parker had been committed to Mississippi State. He’ll bypass that commitment, but his twin brother Jacob will join the Bulldogs. Jacob Parker was viewed as a solid prospect in his own right, though he was seen as more of a fourth-round talent. He didn’t find a signing bonus to his liking. The Diamondbacks eventually drafted him in the 19th round, but teams only select highly-regarded high school prospects that late in case an agreement with one of their earlier picks falls through (leaving them with unexpected bonus money).

Brewers Place Sal Frelick On Injured List

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The Brewers will open the second half without their starting right fielder. Milwaukee placed Sal Frelick on the 10-day injured list, backdated to July 15, due to a left hamstring strain. Blake Perkins was recalled from Triple-A Nashville to take his spot.

Frelick suffered the injury in Milwaukee’s final game before the All-Star Break. He first showed some discomfort on a stolen base and came out of the game after making a sliding catch in the following half-inning. Isaac Collins finished the game in right field and gets the start tonight against Dodgers righty Emmet Sheehan. The switch-hitting Collins has a solid .259/.363/.389 line with five homers in 228 plate appearances. He’d mostly been playing left field, where Jake Bauers and potentially Perkins could get more playing time.

This interrupts an excellent season for the 25-year-old Frelick. He has seven home runs and is hitting .294/.354/.404 across 385 trips to the plate. Frelick has stolen 17 bases in 21 attempts and is playing his usual plus defense in right field. The Brewers haven’t provided a timetable on his return, though it’s perhaps encouraging that they waited a few days to monitor his progress before making the injured list decision.

Milwaukee concluded the first half on a seven-game win streak. They’re a season-high 16 games above .500 and have pulled within a game and a half of the Cubs in the NL Central. The Brewers hold the first Wild Card spot in the National League and are 4.5 games clear of the Giants, the top non-playoff team in the NL.

Reds Sign First-Round Pick Steele Hall

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The Reds announced that they’ve signed first-round pick Steele Hall. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports that the 17-year-old infielder receives a $5.75MM bonus. That’s below the approximate $6.51MM slot value for the ninth pick.

Baseball America and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel each had Hall as a mid-first round talent on their pre-draft rankings. Keith Law of The Athletic was quite a bit lower, placing him 36th. The 5’11 Hall” is a right-handed hitter with elite speed. He’s expected to stick at shortstop and is viewed as a hit-over-power player. Both BA and McDaniel write that Hall has an aggressive offensive approach, while Law expressed concern about his ability to handle breaking stuff.

While Hall may be a somewhat divisive prospect, his youth and athleticism made it clear that he’d be picked high enough to sign away from a commitment to Tennessee. His signing bonus is close to the slot value of the 12th pick, so the deal provides the Reds a bit of cost savings for the later rounds. Cincinnati took two other high school players within the top 10 rounds: second-rounder Aaron Watson and fifth-round pick Eli Pitts. It’s likely that one or both players will get an overslot bonus with some of the money saved by cutting a deal with Hall.

Mets Interested In Danny Coulombe

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The Mets are interested in Twins left-hander Danny Coulombe, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

Coulombe is a 35-year-old lefty reliever. Though he made his major league debut over a decade ago, he’s currently in the best stretch of his career. Dating back to the start of the 2023 season, he has thrown 107 2/3 innings with a 2.09 earned run average. He has struck out 28.3% of opponents, limited walks to a 5.7% clip and induced ground balls on 44.5% of balls in play he’s allowed. He has recorded five saves and 41 holds in that time.

The first two years of that span were spent with the Orioles. The O’s could have retained him for 2025 but somewhat surprisingly turned down his $4MM club option. The Twins scooped him up with a one-year deal worth $3MM.

In hindsight, that looks like a misstep for Baltimore and a win for Minnesota. Coulombe has thrown 26 2/3 innings this year with a tiny 0.68 ERA. There’s surely some luck in there, as he has a massive 92% strand rate. But his 27.9% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 41.8% ground ball rate are all good figures. His 1.69 FIP and 2.90 SIERA suggest he would be posting good numbers even with more neutral favor from the baseball gods.

His fastball velocity is only 90.2 miles per hour this year but he’s never been a flamethrower. His career high in that department was 91.8 mph in 2023. He’s also mixing in a cutter, sinker, slider and knuckle curve to keep hitters off balance. He doesn’t have massive platoon splits. In fact, lefties have a slightly better line against him this year, with a .208/.240/.229 line compared to a .163/.241/.204 slash when Coulombe is facing a righty.

That kind of performance would look good in any bullpen but it’s especially attractive for the Mets. They had planned to have A.J. Minter and Danny Young as their lefty relievers this year but both required season-ending surgeries by early May.

The Mets have subsequently been cycling through fringe roster guys like Richard Lovelady, Génesis Cabrera, José Castillo and Colin Poche. Today, they reinstated Brooks Raley from the injured list and designated Lovelady for assignment. Raley has some good work on his track record but is 37 years old and is just returning from a lengthy Tommy John surgery layoff.

Adding another lefty ahead of the deadline makes plenty of sense, particularly when considering Coulombe’s fairly modest salary. The Mets are a third-time competitive balance tax payor above the top threshold, meaning they will pay a 110% tax on any money they add to the payroll.

Though Coulombe may make sense for the Mets, that doesn’t mean they can get him. The Twins, like several teams, are hovering around contention in such a way where buying or selling is a tough decision. They are currently 47-49, which puts them four games back of a playoff spot. FanGraphs still gives them a 23.3% shot at cracking the postseason, with Baseball Prospectus slightly more optimistic at 28.3%.

It’s possible that their results in the next few weeks could determine their deadline approach. They start a series in Colorado tonight, then head to Dodger stadium. After that, they return home to host the Nationals and then Red Sox.

If they lean to the sell side, trading Coulombe would make a lot of sense. He’s an impending free agent who will celebrate his 36th birthday in a few months. Perhaps even if they are buying, they could flip Coulombe while bringing in other pieces. However, doing so would subtract the most reliable lefty from the bullpen. The Twins have also occasionally given the ball to Joey Wentz, Kody Funderburk and Anthony Misiewicz this year but no one in that trio has an ERA below 6.92.

Coulombe’s modest salary is also surely valuable to the Twins. They clearly didn’t have a ton of payroll space this winter. They spent a combined $10.25MM on one-year deals for Coulombe, Harrison Bader and Ty France. With the franchise currently for sale, they probably don’t have the ability to take on much more salary at the deadline, which could push them towards keeping an affordable guy like Coulombe for the stretch run.

Photo courtesy of Daniel Kucin Jr., Imagn Images

Rangers Select Cody Freeman

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The Rangers announced that they have selected contract of infielder Cody Freeman. Infielder Sam Haggerty was placed on the 10-day injured list due to ankle inflammation, retroactive to July 15th. The club had an open 40-man spot after trading Dane Dunning yesterday. Kennedi Landry of MLB.com was among those to relay the moves prior to the official announcement.

Freeman, 24, will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. The younger brother of Tyler Freeman of the Rockies, Cody was a fourth-round pick of the Rangers in 2019. Offensively, the younger Freeman provides a contact-forward approach. He has stepped to the plate 2,150 times in the minors with a 15.7% strikeout rate.

He has been at Triple-A for all of this year. In 350 plate appearances at that level, he has an 8.9% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate and 12 home runs. Even in the hitter-friendly context of the Pacific Coast League, his .315/.367/.494 slash line translates to a 113 wRC+.

Defensively, he is capable of bouncing around. This year, he has mostly been at third base but has also appeared in the middle infield. He has some work at first base and catcher on his track record but not in recent years.

Last month, FanGraphs gave him an honorable mention on their list of the top Ranger prospects in the “Contact-Driven Profiles” section. The quick mention of Freeman noted that he would have a future value of 40 on the 20-80 scale if he were a better defender.

Haggerty had been serving in a multi-positional bench role and Freeman will perhaps step up to do the same. As this is his first big league call, he has a full slate of options and can be easily sent back to the minors in the future, if needed.

Photo courtesy of Joe Camporeale, Imagn Images

Diamondbacks Sign Sergio Alcántara, Place Ketel Marte On Restricted List Due To Personal Matter

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The Diamondbacks announced a series of roster moves today, including the selection of right-hander Trevor Richards and the recall of catcher Adrian Del Castillo, moves which were reported earlier. They also signed infielder Sergio Alcántara to a major league deal. Right-hander Juan Morillo was optioned during the break, opening one active roster spot. Today, infielder Tristin English was optioned to the minors and second baseman Ketel Marte was placed on the restricted list. Marte opened one 40-man spot for Alcántara. To open another for Richards, catcher Gabriel Moreno was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Per John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix, Marte is “taking some personal days.” Bob Nightengale of USA Today relays that Marte’s home was burglarized while he was away for the All-Star break. Perhaps Marte will be back in just a few days. Regardless, it’s less than ideal for the Diamondbacks, given that their season feels like it’s hanging by a thread at the moment.

The Snakes have been bit really hard by the injury bug this year. They have 11 pitchers on the injured list, many of whom won’t be returning this season due to significant surgeries. Naturally, that has impacted their ability to win ball games. They are currently 47-50 and 5.5 games back of a playoff spot. General manager Mike Hazen has said he would like the team to play its way into buyer position but it has felt like they might be drifting towards sell mode. Losing Marte for any amount of time doesn’t help, given that he’s one of the best all-around players in the game.

Blaze Alexander is perhaps the favorite to take over at the keystone in the interim but Alcántara will give them a fresh body on the roster. He got into one game with the Giants this year, going hitless in four at-bats. He has otherwise been in Triple-A, producing a tepid line of .206/.319/.252. He shouldn’t be expected to provide much with the bat but can play the three infield spots to the left of first base.

Moreno’s transfer to the 60-day IL is also less than ideal for the D’Backs. He was placed on the 10-day IL June 20th due to a hairline fracture in his right index finger. This transfer means the club doesn’t expect him to be able to return in the next month or so. They have been using José Herrera and James McCann behind the plate but will now go with a three-catcher setup. Del Castillo has great minor league numbers on a rate basis but has only played 14 Triple-A games this year due to injuries. He was reinstated from the minor league IL on July 1st.

Now that he’s healthy, perhaps he’ll get a chance to get some big league playing time while Moreno isn’t a near-term option. Del Castillo hit .313/.368/.525 in his major league debut last year. He’s hitting .288/.386/.559 in Triple-A this year but, as mentioned, in a fairly limited sample. Herrera’s line this year is just .197/.302/.268. McCann has a monster .375/.516/.708 line but in just nine games, as he was just added to the roster recently. He slashed .224/.279/.352 over the previous four seasons.

Photo courtesy of Dennis Lee, Imagn Images

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