Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 15 years.
In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.
As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.
One other note: it’s increasingly common for teams to negotiate one-year deals with club options or mutual options covering an additional arbitration season. We’ve noted all of the players who have an option for the 2025 season under the terms of a prior agreement. If the team buys out that option, the player does not become a free agent. He simply is paid whatever buyout (if any) was agreed upon under the terms of the prior agreement and heads back through the arbitration process again this winter.
If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription. Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, our agency database and our GM tracker.
The projections:
Angels (10)
- Taylor Ward (5.164): $13.7MM
- Brock Burke (5.045): $2MM
- Connor Brogdon (4.090): $1MM
- Jo Adell (4.085): $5.5MM
- Carson Fulmer (4.018): $1.2MM
- Reid Detmers (3.159): $2.6MM
- Jose Soriano (3.121): $3.2MM
- Carter Kieboom (3.009): $800K
- Logan O’Hoppe (3.008): $2.9MM
- Zach Neto (2.170): $4.1MM
Astros (16)
- Mauricio Dubon (5.162): $5.8MM
- Steven Okert (5.089): $2MM
- Luis Garcia (5.083): $2.2MM
- Ramon Urias (5.025): $4.4MM
- Bryan Abreu (5.022): $5.9MM
- Enyel De Los Santos (5.015): $2.1MM
- Chas McCormick (4.161): $3.4MM
- Isaac Paredes (4.160): $9.3MM
- Jesus Sanchez (4.118): $6.5MM
- Jake Meyers (4.044): $3.5MM
- Jeremy Pena (4.000): $7.9MM
- Hunter Brown (3.035): $5.7MM
- Yainer Diaz (3.035): $4.5MM
- Hayden Wesneski (2.170): $1.5MM
- Bennett Sousa (2.156): $1.1MM
- Taylor Trammell (2.144): $900K
Athletics (5)
- Austin Wynns (5.017): $1.8MM
- Shea Langeliers (3.051): $5.1MM
- JJ Bleday (3.029): $2.2MM
- Ken Waldichuk (2.150): $900K
- Luis Medina (2.149): $900K
Blue Jays (7)
- Daulton Varsho (5.128): $9.7MM
- Eric Lauer (5.091): $4.4MM
- Dillon Tate (5.018): $1.7MM
- Nick Sandlin (4.157): $2MM
- Ernie Clement (3.168): $4.3MM
- Ryan Burr (3.109): $800K
- Tyler Heineman (3.066): $1MM
Braves (8)
- Jake Fraley (5.097): $3.6MM
- Jose Suarez (4.064): $1.5MM
- Alek Manoah (4.063): $2.2MM
- Dylan Lee (3.150): $1.9MM
- Eli White (3.140): $1.2MM
- Vidal Brujan (3.014): $800K
- Joey Wentz (2.166): $1.1MM
- Nick Allen (2.164): $1.5MM
Brewers (7)
- Jake Bauers (5.084): $2MM
- Andrew Vaughn (4.142): $7.8MM
- William Contreras (4.112): $11.1MM (Brewers hold a $12MM club option with a $100K buyout)
- Nick Mears (4.022): $1.6MM
- Trevor Megill (4.002): $4.2MM
- Garrett Mitchell (3.040): $1MM
- Brice Turang (2.165): $4.4MM
Cardinals (9)
- Jorge Alcala (5.165): $2.1MM
- JoJo Romero (5.045): $4.4MM
- John King (4.148): $2.1MM
- Lars Nootbaar (4.076): $5.7MM
- Brendan Donovan (4.000): $5.4MM
- Andre Pallante (3.145): $3.4MM
- Nolan Gorman (3.114): $2.9MM
- Alec Burleson (3.029): $3.5MM
- Matthew Liberatore (2.144): $2.8MM
Cubs (4)
- Reese McGuire (5.110): $1.9MM
- Justin Steele (4.143): $6.55MM
- Eli Morgan (4.091): $1.1MM
- Javier Assad (3.027): $1.9MM
Diamondbacks (11)
- Ildemaro Vargas (5.129): $1.4MM
- A.J. Puk (5.124): $3.3MM
- Ryan Thompson (5.095): $3.9MM
- Kevin Ginkel (5.033): $3MM
- John Curtiss (4.078): $1.2MM
- Pavin Smith (4.015): $2.4MM
- Alek Thomas (3.103): $2.2MM
- Kyle Nelson (3.081): $1MM
- Jake McCarthy (3.074): $1.9MM
- Gabriel Moreno (3.061): $2.4MM
- Ryne Nelson (3.020): $3.3MM
Dodgers (9)
- Brusdar Graterol (5.167): $2.8MM
- Tony Gonsolin (5.152): $5.4MM
- Evan Phillips (5.136): $6.1MM
- Alex Vesia (5.078): $4.1MM (Dodgers hold a $3.55MM club option with a $50K buyout)
- Anthony Banda (4.135): $1.7MM
- Brock Stewart (4.093): $1.4MM
- Ben Rortvedt (3.135): $1.3MM
- Michael Grove (3.031): $800K
- Alex Call (2.161): $1.5MM
Giants (5)
- JT Brubaker (5.162): $2.1MM
- Andrew Knizner (5.090): $1.3MM
- Joey Lucchesi (5.047): $2MM
- Ryan Walker (2.136): $2.5MM
- Patrick Bailey (2.136): $2.2MM
Guardians (8)
- Kolby Allard (5.004): $1.9MM
- Sam Hentges (4.157): $1.3375MM
- Steven Kwan (4.000): $8.8MM
- Ben Lively (3.133): $2.7MM
- Nolan Jones (3.007): $2MM
- Will Brennan (2.155): $900K
- David Fry (2.154): $1.2MM
- Matt Festa (2.153): $1MM
Marlins (7)
- Anthony Bender (4.153): $2.3MM
- Braxton Garrett (3.168): $1.53MM
- Edward Cabrera (3.147): $3.7MM
- Ryan Weathers (3.066): $1.5MM
- Andrew Nardi (3.053): $800K
- Max Meyer (2.166): $1.3MM
- Calvin Faucher (2.156): $1.9MM
Mariners (10)
- Trent Thornton (5.148): $2.5MM
- Randy Arozarena (5.129): $18.2MM
- Logan Gilbert (4.144): $10MM
- Gabe Speier (4.000): $1.7MM
- George Kirby (3.151): $5.4MM
- Tayler Saucedo (3.146): $1.1MM
- Matt Brash (3.121): $1.8MM
- Luke Raley (3.106): $1.8MM
- Gregory Santos (3.055): $800K
- Bryce Miller (2.153): $2.4MM
Mets (9)
- Luis Torrens (5.105): $2.2MM
- Tyrone Taylor (5.093): $3.6MM
- David Peterson (5.089): $7.6MM
- Nick Madrigal (5.087): $1.35MM
- Tylor Megill (4.031): $2.6MM
- Max Kranick (3.011): $1MM
- Huascar Brazoban (2.170): $1.3MM
- Francisco Alvarez (2.164): $2.4MM
- Reed Garrett (2.143): $1.4MM
Nationals (9)
- Jorge Alfaro (5.160): $1MM
- Luis Garcia Jr. (4.142): $7MM
- Josiah Gray (4.075): $1.35MM
- Mason Thompson (4.022): $1MM
- MacKenzie Gore (4.000): $4.7MM
- Riley Adams (3.171): $1.5MM
- CJ Abrams (3.130): $5.6MM
- Jake Irvin (2.152): $3.3MM
- Cade Cavalli (2.141): $1.3MM
Orioles (14)
- Ryan Mountcastle (5.105): $7.8MM
- Keegan Akin (5.083): $3MM
- Dylan Carlson (5.067): $1.5MM
- Trevor Rogers (5.047): $6MM
- Tyler Wells (4.132): $2.7MM
- Jose Castillo (4.112): $1.7MM
- Dean Kremer (4.112): $5.1MM
- Adley Rutschman (4.000): $6.8MM
- Felix Bautista (4.000): $2.1MM
- Kyle Bradish (3.160): $2.8MM
- Yennier Cano (3.065): $1.8MM
- Gunnar Henderson (3.036): $6.6MM
- Alex Jackson (3.036): $1.8MM
- Albert Suarez (3.019): $900K
Padres (7)
- Adrian Morejon (5.140): $3.6MM
- Jason Adam (5.132): $6.8MM
- Gavin Sheets (4.076): $4.3MM
- JP Sears (3.065): $3.5MM
- Luis Campusano (3.003): $1MM
- Mason Miller (2.166): $3.4MM
- Freddy Fermin (2.165: $1.8MM
Phillies (9)
- Jesus Luzardo (5.165): $10.4MM
- Edmundo Sosa (5.140): $3.9MM
- Alec Bohm (5.106): $10.3MM
- Garrett Stubbs (4.148): $925K
- Brandon Marsh (4.078): $4.5MM
- Jhoan Duran (4.000): $7.6MM
- Bryson Stott (4.000): $5.8MM
- Tanner Banks (3.092): $1.2MM
- Rafael Marchan (3.006): $1MM
Pirates (9)
- Dennis Santana (5.126): $3.4MM
- Johan Oviedo (4.078): $2MM
- Joey Bart (4.020): $2.7MM
- Justin Lawrence (3.167): $1.2MM
- Yohan Ramirez (3.135): $1.2MM
- Colin Holderman (3.120): $1.7MM
- Oneil Cruz (3.110): $3.6MM
- Dauri Moreta (3.056): $800K
- Jack Suwinski (2.170): $1.7MM
Rangers (9)
- Jonah Heim (5.097): $6MM
- Adolis Garcia (5.095): $12.1MM
- Josh Sborz (5.055): $1.1MM
- Jacob Webb (5.046): $2MM
- Sam Haggerty (5.007): $1.4MM
- Josh Smith (3.129): $3MM
- Jake Burger (3.127): $3.5MM
- Ezequiel Duran (3.050): $1.4MM
- Josh Jung (3.023): $2.9MM
Rays (16)
- Shane McClanahan (4.158): $3.6MM
- Cole Sulser (4.096): $1.2MM
- Taylor Walls (4.092): $2MM (Rays hold a $2.45MM club option with a $50K buyout)
- Griffin Jax (4.091): $3.6MM
- Garrett Cleavinger (4.060): $2.1MM
- Shane Baz (3.158): $3.1MM
- Nick Fortes (3.149): $2.4MM
- Christopher Morel (3.117): $2.6MM
- Stuart Fairchild (3.114): $900K
- Josh Lowe (3.093): $2.9MM
- Bryan Baker (3.049): $1.5MM
- Ryan Pepiot (3.005): $3.7MM
- Alex Faedo (2.169): $800K
- Kevin Kelly (2.156): $1MM
- Richie Palacios (2.156): $1MM
- Edwin Uceta (2.150): $1.4MM
Red Sox (9)
- Nathaniel Lowe (5.145): $13.5MM
- Tanner Houck (4.100): $3.95MM
- Jarren Duran (3.155): $8.4MM (Red Sox hold an $8MM club option with a $50K buyout)
- Kutter Crawford (3.136): $2.75MM
- Romy Gonzalez (3.083): $1.8MM
- Connor Wong (3.079): $1.6MM
- Triston Casas (3.032): $1.7MM
- Josh Winckowski: (3.003): $800K
- Brennan Bernardino (2.150): $1.1MM
Reds (13)
- Brady Singer (5.156): $11.9MM
- Santiago Espinal (5.149): $2.9MM
- Gavin Lux (5.114): $5MM
- Tyler Stephenson (5.056): $6.4MM
- Ian Gibaut (4.077): $1.5MM
- Sam Moll (4.023): $1.2MM
- Nick Lodolo (4.000): $4.3MM
- Graham Ashcraft (3.130): $1.4MM
- TJ Friedl (3.112): $4.9MM
- Tony Santillan (3.099): $2.4MM
- Spencer Steer (3.035): $4.5MM
- Will Benson (3.003): $1.7MM
- Matt McLain (2.140): $2.6MM
Rockies (7)
- Thairo Estrada (5.153): $3.8MM (Estrada’s contract contains a $7MM mutual option with a $750K buyout)
- Jimmy Herget (4.069): $1.5MM
- Mickey Moniak (4.027): $4.2MM
- Lucas Gilbreath (3.150): $900K
- Ryan Feltner (3.071): $2.3MM
- Tyler Freeman (3.046): $1.8MM
- Brenton Doyle (2.161): $3.2MM
Royals (15)
- Taylor Clarke (5.148): $1.9MM
- Kris Bubic (5.135): $6MM
- John Schreiber (5.027): $3.8MM
- Jonathan India (5.000): $7.4MM
- Kyle Wright (4.151): $1.8MM
- Kyle Isbel (4.043): $2.7MM
- Bailey Falter (3.138): $3.3MM
- Daniel Lynch IV (3.136): $1.3MM
- Sam Long (3.121): $950K
- Vinnie Pasquantino (3.101): $5.4MM
- Angel Zerpa (3.082): $1.2MM
- Michael Massey (3.068): $2MM
- MJ Melendez (3.016): $2.65MM
- Maikel Garcia (2.168): $4.8MM
- James McArthur (2.150): $800K
Tigers (14)
- Tarik Skubal (5.114): $17.8MM
- Casey Mize (5.111): $5.4MM
- Jake Rogers (5.040): $2.9MM
- Will Vest (4.100): $3.3MM
- Zach McKinstry (4.099): $3.5MM
- Matt Vierling (4.026): $3.1MM
- Jason Foley (3.150): $3.15MM
- Alex Lange (3.145): $900K
- Andy Ibanez (3.133): $1.8MM
- Riley Greene (3.110): $6.6MM
- Spencer Torkelson (3.076): $5.1MM
- Kerry Carpenter (3.057): $3.5MM
- Beau Brieske (3.056): $1.3MM
- Tyler Holton (3.047): $1.7MM
Twins (10)
- Genesis Cabrera (5.149): $1.4MM
- Ryan Jeffers (5.089): $6.6MM
- Justin Topa (5.044): $1.7MM (Twins hold a $2MM club option with a $225K buyout)
- Michael Tonkin (5.044): $1.4MM
- Bailey Ober (4.093): $4.6MM
- Joe Ryan (4.033): $5.8MM
- Trevor Larnach (4.014): $4.7MM
- Royce Lewis (3.142): $3MM
- Anthony Misiewicz (3.082): $1.1MM
- Cole Sands (3.017): $1.3MM
White Sox (2)
- Mike Tauchman (5.143): $3.4MM
- Steven Wilson (3.166): $1.5MM
Yankees (14)
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (5.075): $10.2MM
- David Bednar (5.073): $9MM
- Mark Leiter Jr. (5.031): $3MM
- Clarke Schmidt (4.148): $4.9MM
- Camilo Doval (4.071): $6.6MM
- Jake Cousins (3.091): $841K
- Ian Hamilton (3.081): $941K
- Luis Gil (3.073): $2.1MM
- Scott Effross (3.063): $800K
- Jake Bird (3.051): $1MM
- Oswaldo Cabrera (3.050): $1.2MM
- Fernando Cruz (3.035): $1.3MM
- Anthony Volpe (3.000): $3.9MM
- Jose Caballero (2.170): $1.9MM