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Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2026

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Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 15 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.

One other note: it’s increasingly common for teams to negotiate one-year deals with club options or mutual options covering an additional arbitration season. We’ve noted all of the players who have an option for the 2025 season under the terms of a prior agreement. If the team buys out that option, the player does not become a free agent. He simply is paid whatever buyout (if any) was agreed upon under the terms of the prior agreement and heads back through the arbitration process again this winter.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription. Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, our agency database and our GM tracker.

The projections:

Angels (10)

Astros (16)

Athletics (5)

Blue Jays (7)

Braves (8)

Brewers (7)

Cardinals (9)

Cubs (4)

Diamondbacks (11)

Dodgers (9)

Giants (5)

Guardians (8)

Marlins (7)

Mariners (10)

Mets (9)

Nationals (9)

Orioles (14)

Padres (7)

Phillies (9)

Pirates (9)

Rangers (9)

Rays (16)

Red Sox (9)

Reds (13)

Rockies (7)

Royals (15)

Tigers (14)

Twins (10)

White Sox (2)

Yankees (14)

N.L. Notes: Horton, Chourio, Bader

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Cubs right-hander Cade Horton is potentially making some progress. According to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, he will throw off a mound this week as the club decides whether or not to include him on the NLCS roster, if they advance that far.

Horton debuted this year and hit the ground running. He logged 118 innings for the Cubs with a 2.67 earned run average. Unfortunately, his season ended on a sour note. Horton suffered a rib fracture in September and it was immediately apparent that he would miss at least one playoff series. The Cubs survived the Wild Card round without him but he still wasn’t on the roster for their NLDS matchup against the Brewers.

The Chicago rotation is feeling thin at the moment, composed of Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon. Boyd just got rocked by the Brewers on Saturday. He was charged with six runs, only two of them being earned, as he failed to get out of the first inning. The Cubs went on to lose 9-3. Imanaga and Taillon were both decent this year but both had subpar strikeout rates. If the Cubs can hang on for a best-of-seven NLCS, getting Horton in there to take some pressure of those guys could be a difference maker.

Mooney also adds that the Cubs expect Horton to earn a full year of service time, which is understandable. As a top prospect who was promoted late enough that he wasn’t slated to get a full service year, he can earn that full year retroactively by finishing top two in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting. Horton and Atlanta catcher Drake Baldwin are considered the frontrunners for that award, so Horton will likely get that full service year. That would put him on track to reach free agency after 2030 instead of 2031.

Some other injury updates from around the league…

  • Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio is in tonight’s lineup, batting leadoff against the Cubs. Chourio left the first game due to some right hamstring tightness. A subsequent MRI led to results which Pat Murphy described as “inconclusive,” adding that it’s “not a serious hamstring strain.” That implied that Chourio did indeed strain his hamstring, though the club is apparently comfortable running him out there tonight. Murphy said today, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, that Chourio is not 100% and they’ll take him out of the game if it appears necessary.
  • Phillies outfielder Harrison Bader was removed from his club’s first NLDS game against the Dodgers due to a groin injury. He’s not in tonight’s Game Two lineup but he could be available to pinch hit. Manager Rob Thomson passed the new on to reporters, including Lochlahn March of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Bader is an excellent defender and he hit .305/.361/.463 after being acquired from the Twins at the deadline, so the Phillies will obviously want him back in there as soon as possible. The Phils have Otto Kemp, Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos in the lineup tonight from left to right. Max Kepler is also in the mix, though he’s probably not starting tonight since lefty Blake Snell is on the bump for the Dodgers.

Photo courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images

Dodgers Notes: Smith, Ohtani, Glasnow

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The Dodgers took the first game of their NLDS matchup against the Phillies. As they gear up for the second contest, manager Dave Roberts revealed some notes about the roster. Notably, Roberts said that Will Smith could start behind the plate in Game Three, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic.

The club has largely been without Smith for about a month. He took a foul ball off his throwing hand in early September, suffering a hairline fracture, and hasn’t played much since. He has been on the club’s postseason roster but hasn’t started a game yet. He did enter the first game against Philly as a pinch hitter, striking out twice and getting hit by a pitch. Ben Rortvedt has taken up the lion’s share of playing time with Smith out and is in the starting lineup again tonight but it seems possible Smith is trending towards retaking that playing time.

That’s potentially a huge boost for the Dodgers. Smith had a massive .296/.404/.497 line and 153 wRC+ this year. Rortvedt has managed a massive .500/.571/.667 line in the playoffs this year, but in a tiny sample of just three games. He’s obviously not going to maintain that production, especially when considering his .190/.279/.270 line in his regular season career. Even though Smith is getting healthier, he may not be immediately available to resume his previous level of production, so his condition could be an ongoing storyline as long as the Dodgers stay alive.

Roberts also confirmed the club’s rotation plans. Game one starter Shohei Ohtani will take the ball in game five, if necessary, and won’t be available out of the bullpen before then. Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register was among the reporters to pass that along.

It’s quite common for starting pitchers to be available in the bullpen during the playoffs. More off-days allow clubs to shrink their rotations, which leads to some guys getting nudged out. Also, the “all hands on deck” nature of playoff baseball makes teams and players push things beyond normal comfort levels.

The idea of Ohtani making relief appearances has been kicked around but it’s understandable why the Dodgers would lean against it. For one thing, his workload is already double that of the normal player, given his status as a two-way player. Adding in some extra relief work would only tax him further.

There’s also the in-game strategy component of it. MLB implemented a rule in 2022 that would allow a starting pitcher to be removed from his pitching duties but stay in the game as the designated hitter. This basically only applies to Ohtani, so it’s often referred to as the “Shohei Ohtani rule”. But if Ohtani is not the starting pitcher and enters as a reliever, then is removed, he would have to either come out of the game or play a defensive position.

Taking all that into consideration, it’s understandable that the Dodgers are keeping things simple. Blake Snell is starting game two tonight with Yoshinobu Yamamoto taking the ball in game three. It seems likely that Tyler Glasnow will start game four, though he did make a relief appearance on Saturday. He came in after Ohtani and logged an inning and two thirds, throwing 34 pitches in the process. Despite that relief outing, Roberts said yesterday that Glasnow was in line to start Game Four, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Ohtani would then start Game Five, though Snell would also be on normal rest by then and could be a factor.

Photo courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio, Imagn Images

Carlos Narvaez To Undergo Knee Surgery

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Red Sox catcher Carlos Narvaez will undergo a “cleanup” procedure on the meniscus in his left knee, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow announced Monday at his end-of-season press conference (link via Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald). He’s expected to be ready for spring training.

Narvaez played through much of the second half with pain in his knee. He missed four straight games in early August due to the injury. Narvaez’s splits from the season generally reflect that the catcher was playing at less than 100 percent down the stretch. From Opening Day through July 9, he slashed .280/.354/.453 in 274 turns at the plate. From that point through season’s end, Narvaez turned in a lowly .181/.229/.369 batting line. His strikeout rate climbed in each of the season’s final three months and reached a boiling point by mid-September; Narvaez fanned in a bit more than 23% of his plate appearances through the season’s first three months but went down on strikes in 13 of his final 44 plate appearances (29.5%).

Even with the ugly finish to the season, Narvaez’s overall 2025 campaign was a roaring success. Acquired from the archrival Yankees in exchange for pitching prospect Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, Narvaez broke camp as the backup in Boston but quickly laid claim to the starting catching job. He finished out the year with a roughly league-average batting line of .241/.306/.419 (97 wRC+) and swatted 15 home runs in his first big league season. Narvaez also graded out as a plus defender, thwarting 28% of stolen-base attempts against him while delivering above-average grades for pitch framing and blocking balls in the dirt (via Statcast).

Narvaez’s ascension dovetailed with regression from former starter Connor Wong. Assuming all goes well with Narvaez’s knee procedure, he’s the favorite to head into spring training as the Red Sox’ starting catcher next season. Boston has an additional five full seasons of club control remaining, and Narvaez won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after the 2027 season.

Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat, Today 2pm CT

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Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! I'll get going at 2pm CT, but as always, feel free to submit questions ahead of time. Looking forward to it!
  • Let's begin!

Dave

  • Instead of signing K Tucker to $450 million and 10 years should the Dodgers reunite with Cody Bellinger for $150 million and 5 years?   Thanks

Steve Adams

  • I think that's a bit heavier than what both would get. I don't really expect the Dodgers to be prime players for Tucker, as I've said. Obviously they can afford to, but they've really only gone to the absolute top of the market/long-term for Yamamoto (25 years old), Ohtani (unicorn for obvious reasons) and, to a lesser extent, Betts (who was a year younger than Tucker and was an extension at a price that didn't break the bank as some might've expected).Adding Tucker (or Bellinger, for that matter) when they already have Pages and Teoscar (through 2027) just seems to further take potential ABs away from Dalton Rushing and prospects like Josue De Paula and Zyhir Hope.

    Maybe they just love Tucker and don't care about blocking all those guys -- they could all be traded, I suppose -- but I'm just not big on the idea of the Dodgers shelling out nine figures for any outfielder this winter. (Others on the MLBTR staff are more open to the idea than I am, for what it's worth)

ArchTiger

  • Can a HR-driven team win in the playoffs?

Steve Adams

  • You'd have to go back to the 2019 Nationals to find the most recent time a team outside the top four in terms of home run output won the World Series. I assume you're talking more about teams that are dependent solely on home runs to score, but even that's a little different in the playoffs versus the postseason. You're just not going to face a team's fifth starter or sixth-best reliever in the playoffs unless the game's already out of hand. Every club is a little more homer-dependent in the postseason, because they're facing better pitchers who make fewer mistakes, so the difference will often come down to who can capitalize most often on the relatively fewer number of mistake pitches they see.

Ned Colletti’s Toupee

  • Does Munetaka Murakami’s value take a hit because he’s limited to a corner outfield or first base?  I know he will get paid but I don’t see him getting Yamamoto money.

Steve Adams

  • Murakami's value takes a hit because he strikes out too much in Japan, even against lesser pitching, has struggled in the past against above-average velocity (I don't have his '25 numbers against MLB-caliber fastballs handy, but the average NPB heater is like 91-92 mph), and yes, because he's a poor defender who's best suited at 1B in all likelihood.
  • I imagine there might be clubs willing to play him at 3B briefly early in his MLB run.
  • He's probably a 1B long term, but I don't think 325MM like Yamamoto has ever been plausible since his numbers dipped a bit after the back-to-back MVP wins in 2021-22. He's still going to cash in on something worth more than $100MM in all likelihood, but to your point, I wouldn't be surprised if he signed for less than half of what Yamamoto got

Steve from the Cleve

  • Cleveland needs an OF bat that can hit LHP. Robert Jr can't be had since he's on the White Sox and expensive. Tyrone Taylor was Tim Dierkes suggestion, but you might as well play Petey Halpin instead since he's a great fielder, runner and had a .734 OPS in AAA. Seems like there aren't any good options who are younger than 33

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Nick Hundley Interviews For Giants’ Managerial Opening

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October 6th: Hundley has now been interviewed by the Giants, reports Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle.

October 5th: As the Giants get their managerial search underway following Bob Melvin’s recent dismissal, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that catcher Nick Hundley is “strongly in the mix” for the job. It’s unclear whether Hundley has interviewed for the position at this point, but the fact that his name has come up so clearly is nonetheless notable.

Hundley, 42, was a big league catcher for parts of 12 seasons and served as the Giants’ primary backup to Buster Posey for the 2017 and ’18 seasons. After serving under Posey as part of the team’s catching tandem, it now appears Posey has interest in bringing Hundley in to serve as his manager now that he’s become San Francisco’s president of baseball operations. Hundley immediately jumped into an off-the-field role with the league upon announcing his retirement in 2020, as he became a senior director of baseball operations with the commissioner’s office.

He spent two years in that role before departing the league office to take up a job in the Rangers organization, where he serves as a special assistant to president of baseball operations Chris Young. Hundley won a World Series in the organization in 2023, and during that playoff run was actually a candidate to manage the Giants when then-president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi was looking to replace Gabe Kapler in the dugout. At the time, it was reported that Hundley had withdrawn himself from consideration before receiving an interview due to family considerations. He had talked to both Zaidi and Posey himself about the role before making that decision, however, indicating that he had at least some level of interest.

With no interview confirmed to have taken place, it’s not necessarily a lock that Hundley would accept the opportunity to interview if offered given his past decision to decline that invitation. With that being said, it’s entirely possible that whatever concerns Hundley had about jumping back into the grind and travel involved with a managerial role have resolved themselves in the past two years, or even that the idea of reporting directly to a former teammate like Posey holds enough appeal to get him involved in the process again. It’s also worth noting that Heyman made clear Hundley has “no guarantees” of landing the position, even in the event he has changed his mind about his desire to manage.

Whatever the case may be regarding Hundley’s candidacy, he’s far from the only person the Giants will talk to about their managerial gig. Former All-Star and longtime Oakland A’s catcher Kurt Suzuki is known to have interviewed for the position. Former Giants bullpen coach Craig Albernaz, now in Cleveland as Stephen Vogt’s bench coach and associate manager, is “expected to get a look” for the job as well. It’s worth noting that all three of Hundley, Suzuki, and Albernaz have connections to the Bay Area, though that may not necessarily be something Posey is looking for specifically in his next manager. Whoever next sits in the manager’s chair for the Giants will be an external hire, as Posey is not expected to interview any members of the current coaching staff for the job.

NPB’s Takahiro Norimoto Mulling Potential Move To MLB

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Right-hander Takahiro Norimoto of the Rakuten Eagles in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball is planning to exercise his international free agent rights and gauge interest from both MLB and NPB teams this winter, per a report from Yahoo Japan (hat tip to Yakyu Cosmopolitan). He’s hired the Wasserman agency to represent him in talks with major league teams, per the report. The now-34-year-old righty moved to the bullpen in 2024 after a lengthy and successful run as a starting pitcher. He’s spent the past two seasons as the Eagles’ closer.

Norimoto is older than most players making the transition from NPB to MLB. He’ll turn 35 in December. The right-hander is coming off a nice year with the Eagles, having pitched to a 3.02 ERA with 16 saves, four holds and only two blown saves. His 17.2% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate don’t exactly stand out, though Norimoto has still shown the ability to run his heater up in the 97 mph range since moving to the bullpen last season. He kept nearly 50% of his opponents’ batted balls on the ground this past season as well.

Norimoto hasn’t had issues missing bats in the past. He led NPB in strikeouts for five straight years, from 2014-18, while working out of the Eagles’ rotation. He’s pitched 1838 career innings in NPB and recorded a 3.12 ERA while winning 120 games, saving another 48 and punching out nearly 24% of his opponents (against a 6.3% walk rate).

Due to the fact that Norimoto is at least 25 and has at least six full seasons of professional experience, he’s exempt from Major League Baseball’s international bonus pool structure. The fact that he has more than nine seasons of service in NPB means he is also exempt from the posting system. If he indeed exercises those international free agent rights, he’d be free to sign with any club on a big league or minor league deal — provided MLB teams have sufficient interest in the former Pacific League Rookie of the Year and six-time NPB All-Star.

While we don’t see too many players jump to MLB in their mid-30s, Orioles right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano did just that in 2025. This past year was Sugano’s rookie season in MLB and came in his own age-35 campaign. Sugano, of course, did so as a starter. Former Red Sox righty Hirokazu Sawamura and former D-backs/Mariners righty Yoshihisa Hirano are more recent examples of relievers making relatively successful moves to MLB in their mid-30s; the former signed with Boston ahead of his age-33 season in 2022, while the latter signed with Arizona ahead of the 2018 campaign, his age-34 season.

Big league clubs are always on the lookout for affordable bullpen help, so there could still be interest in Norimoto even if he’s not as coveted at 35 as he might’ve been in his physical peak. As a rotation-mate of former Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka for Tanaka’s first three seasons back in Japan after his run in the Bronx, Norimoto has surely picked the former MLB All-Star’s brain about moving to the majors in the past. It’s not entirely certain he’ll be pitching in North America next year, but he’s an interesting wild card entrant into the offseason bullpen market.

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLBTR Podcast

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On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

The 2025 regular season is now over and the playoffs are in full swing. Do you have a question about the season which just ended? The postseason? The upcoming offseason? If you have a question on those topics or anything else baseball-related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

The Opener: NLDS, Yankees, Managerial Searches

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. NLDS Game 2:

While the ALDS had its second game of the series yesterday, the NL had a day off. The NLDS will resume today with games in Milwaukee and Philadelphia. The Phillies will be looking to avoid dropping a second consecutive home game to the Dodgers after Teoscar Hernandez’s three-run homer gave Los Angeles a 5-3 lead they would not relinquish. At 6:08pm local time this evening, a duel between opposing lefties will begin as two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell steps up for the Dodgers to face off against Phillies southpaw Jesus Luzardo. Three hours later (8:08pm local time), the Brewers will take the field and try to put the Cubs on the brink of elimination while Chicago will try to put Saturday’s 9-3 drubbing in the past and send a tied series to Wrigley Field. Lefty Shota Imanaga will be on the mound for the Cubs today. The Brewers will use fellow southpaw Aaron Ashby as an opener with right-hander Quinn Priester likely to handle bulk innings.

2. Yankees on the brink:

The Yankees managed to win back-to-back elimination games against the Red Sox in the AL Wild Card Series last week, but now they’ll need to win three consecutive elimination games if they hope to stay alive and advance to the ALCS after they were no-hit by Blue Jays rookie Trey Yesavage through 5 1/3 innings while the Jays’ offense piled on 13 runs by the end of the sixth inning. While New York rallied a bit against the Toronto bullpen, it wasn’t enough to stop the Bombers from entering today’s off-day staring down the possibility of getting swept in front of their home crowd on Tuesday.

3. Managerial searches continue:

While the playoffs continue, a number of teams eliminated from the postseason are on the hunt for a new manager. Skip Schumaker has already been hired in Texas to replace Bruce Bochy, but that still leaves vacancies in Colorado, Baltimore, San Francisco, Minnesota, Atlanta, Anaheim, and Washington D.C. New candidates emerged for the Giants and Angels yesterday, but other potential candidates like Mets executive Andy Green have passed on the opportunity to be considered for a managerial gig. With so many vacancies yet to be filled, plenty of intriguing candidates will emerge over the next few weeks as teams conduct interviews and ask rival organizations for permission to speak with their employees.

Brett Phillips Retires

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Outfielder Brett Phillips has announced his retirement after seven Major League seasons.  In an Instagram reel released today, Phillips credited his career to his family, his faith, and to many people in and out of baseball that helped him achieve his success.  Beyond those named in his speech, the 31-year-old Phillips also had a whiteboard full of names of many former teammates and executives who played key roles in his career.

Phillips hit .187/.272/.347 with 31 homers over 971 plate appearances and 393 games during his MLB career, while playing for five different clubs at the big league level.  Phillips’ speed was his chief offensive weapon, as he stole 39 bases on 45 career attempts.  That speed also helped him deliver outstanding defense at all three outfield positions — over his 2321 1/3 innings as a big league outfielder, Phillips amassed +41 Defensive Runs Saved, +31 Outs Above Average, and a +13.0 UZR/150.

The Astros made Phillips a sixth-round pick in the 2012 draft, though before he could make his debut in the Show, Houston dealt Phillips as part of the huge trade at the 2015 deadline that brought Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers from Milwaukee.  Phillips was one of four pieces of the very prominent trade package acquired by the Brew Crew, as Josh Hader, Adrian Houser, and Domingo Santana were the other members of the haul.  Not to be overshadowed at the time of the trade, Phillips was drawing top-100 prospect attention heading into the 2016 season and for a couple of years afterwards.

Phillips got his first taste of the majors in 2017, and he appeared in 52 games for the Brewers over the next two seasons before the outfielder was moved to the Royals in another notable deadline deal that saw Mike Moustakas shipped from K.C. to Milwaukee.  This tenure in Kansas City stretched over parts of three seasons before Phillips was dealt again to the Rays partway through the abbreviated 2020 season, which set the stage for the most memorable moments of Phillips’ career.

Tampa Bay won the AL pennant that year, with Phillips chipping in as a defensive specialist during the rest of the regular season and then as a defensive sub and pinch-runner throughout the playoffs.  He had just three plate appearances during the postseason, and his one hit during that stretch couldn’t have been bigger.  With the Dodgers holding a 7-6 lead over the Rays with two outs in the bottom of the ninth of Game 4, Phillips lined a single that tied the game, and ended up as the walkoff hit when Randy Arozarena also scored on the play due to a Will Smith catching error.  Beyond the hit itself, Rays fans will always remember the image of Phillips’ celebratory airplane-style sprint around the outfield.

The following season saw Phillips deliver his best year at the plate, as he hit .206/.300/.427 with 13 homers and 14 steals (out of 17 attempts) in 292 PA while playing in a part-time outfield role in Tampa Bay.  His numbers dropped off sharply in 2022, however, and the Rays designated him for assignment and then dealt Phillips to the Orioles.

Phillips moved on to play 39 games with the 2023 Angels in what proved to be his last MLB campaign, as subsequent minor league deals with the White Sox and Yankees didn’t result in any more calls to the Show.  His stint with the Yankees saw the start of a new career path for Phillips, as he attempted to convert to pitching.  Phillips’ final stop of his career came with Kane County of the independent American Association this year.

Beyond his energy and contributions on the field, Phillips became a fan favorite and social media darling due to his outgoing personality.  “Baseball Is Fun” became Phillips’ unofficial catchphrase, and he finished his retirement announcement by repeating his mantra one more time.  We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Phillips on a fine career and we wish him plenty of more fun in his post-playing endeavors.

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