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Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2026

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Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 15 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.

One other note: it’s increasingly common for teams to negotiate one-year deals with club options or mutual options covering an additional arbitration season. We’ve noted all of the players who have an option for the 2025 season under the terms of a prior agreement. If the team buys out that option, the player does not become a free agent. He simply is paid whatever buyout (if any) was agreed upon under the terms of the prior agreement and heads back through the arbitration process again this winter.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription. Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, our agency database and our GM tracker.

The projections:

Angels (10)

Astros (16)

Athletics (5)

Blue Jays (7)

Braves (9)

Brewers (7)

Cardinals (9)

Cubs (4)

Diamondbacks (11)

Dodgers (9)

Giants (5)

Guardians (8)

Marlins (7)

Mariners (10)

Mets (9)

Nationals (9)

Orioles (14)

Padres (7)

Phillies (9)

Pirates (9)

Rangers (9)

Rays (16)

Red Sox (9)

Reds (13)

Rockies (7)

Royals (15)

Tigers (14)

Twins (10)

White Sox (2)

Yankees (14)

10 Players Elect Free Agency

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Now that the season is over, we’ll start seeing several players choose to become minor league free agents.  Major League free agents (i.e. players with six-plus years of big league service time) will hit the open market five days after the end of the World Series, but eligible minor leaguers can already start electing free agency.

To qualify, these players must have been all outrighted off their team’s 40-man rosters during the 2025 season without being added back.  These players also must have multiple career outrights on their resume, and/or at least three years of Major League service time.

We’ll offer periodic updates over the coming weeks about many other players hitting the market in this fashion.  These free agent decisions are all listed on the official MLB.com or MILB.com transactions pages, for further reference.

Catchers

Infielder

Outfielder

Pitchers

Orioles Notes: Suarez, Mountcastle, Center Field

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Orioles right-hander Albert Suárez is scheduled for an MRI tomorrow after suffering a season-ending elbow injury, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. That should determine whether the 35-year-old is in danger of any kind of surgery.

This was a lost year for Suárez, who’d been a surprisingly valuable part of the 2024 pitching staff. The journeyman started 24 of 32 appearances a season ago, working to a 3.70 ERA across 133 2/3 innings. Suárez began this year in long relief. He hurt his shoulder after one appearance and was diagnosed with a rotator cuff strain that cost him the next four months.

By the time Suárez returned in September, the Orioles were well out of contention. He made four appearances, working nine innings of two-run ball. Then came the elbow inflammation that knocked him out for the year and raises questions about his future. Suárez is eligible for arbitration for the first time in his career. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $900K salary. That’s more than reasonable if the Orioles expect him to be healthy next season, but any kind of serious injury could lead them to drop him from the 40-man roster.

Suárez is one of 14 Baltimore players who’ll be eligible for arbitration. Ryan Mountcastle has the highest projected salary of the group at $7.8MM. It’d be a surprise if the O’s bring him back for that amount after an injury-plagued season. Mountcastle suffered a Grade 2 hamstring strain at the end of May. That kept him on the injured list beyond the trade deadline. He was healthy for the final six weeks and slashed .255/.293/.393 across 157 plate appearances. He struck out in nearly one third of his trips to the plate.

The 28-year-old had also struggled early in the season. He finished the year with a .250/.286/.367 line while hitting seven homers in 89 games. The Orioles used him as a part-time player down the stretch, giving everyday first base work to 23-year-old Coby Mayo. Even if neither Mayo nor rookie catcher/designated hitter Samuel Basallo had a good season, the O’s will probably look for a cheaper veteran bench bat to work behind those younger hitters.

Mountcastle acknowledged uncertainty about his future during the final weekend of the regular season (link via Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball). The 2015 third-round pick noted that he “can’t control things that happen” with the team’s decision but praised the coaches and teammates with whom he’s worked over his decade in the organization. Baltimore will probably shop him in trade, but they could have a hard time finding interest at that arbitration salary. A non-tender seems likelier. That would send him to free agency and make him an interesting rebound candidate for clubs on a cheaper one-year deal.

Elsewhere in the lineup, the O’s have a question mark in center field. After Cedric Mullins was traded at the deadline, the Orioles played Colton Cowser up the middle. While his small-sample defensive grades were tolerable, his average speed makes him a better fit in right field over a full season. Cowser had a terrible second half at the plate, hitting .178/.263/.340 after the All-Star Break. He missed time with a concussion and played through broken ribs that he suffered in June.

The O’s don’t have a ton of in-house alternatives. Dylan Beavers played exclusively in the corner outfield as a rookie. He’s an above-average runner who has some center field experience in the minors, yet he played more right field coming up through the system. Former first-rounder Enrique Bradfield is a no-doubt center fielder who hit well in Double-A, but he batted .179 in 15 games after a late-season promotion to Triple-A Norfolk. He’ll probably begin the year in the minors.

Jake Rill of MLB.com suggested this morning that the O’s should look for an external upgrade, ideally one who hits from the right side. Cowser, Beavers, and Bradfield each hit left-handed. Harrison Bader fits that bill in free agency, but he should sign somewhere that offers everyday playing time on at least a strong two-year contract. They could add a fourth/fifth outfielder like Jose Siri on a cheap one-year deal or look for a glove-first complementary type on the trade market. Tyrone Taylor (Mets), Jacob Young (Nationals), Blake Perkins (Brewers) and Dane Myers (Marlins) are a few speculative glove-first possibilities who shouldn’t require a huge prospect return if the O’s go that route.

Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: First Base

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A number of teams (and their fanbases) have already turned their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking a look at the players who’ll be available at each position. Ages listed are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher

The Top Guys

Alonso is signed through 2026 but he has an opt-out and has already said that he will use it, so he’ll be back on the open market for a second year in a row. That’s the outcome he and his representatives at the Boras Corporation were hoping for. Last winter, he couldn’t find a satisfactory long-term commitment, so he pivoted to the short-term, opt-out path. The hope with that strategy as that a better platform year and a lack of qualifying offer would lead to a more robust market.

The lack of QO is already assured, as a player can only receive one in his career. Alonso also held up his end of the bargain by having a better walk year. His home run total went from 34 to 38. His batting average climbed from .240 to .272 and his on-base percentage from .329 to .347. His strikeout rate dropped as his batted ball data at Statcast improved. That led to a wRC+ jump from 121 to 141. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 3.6 wins above replacement this year, almost double last year’s 2.1 tally.

That improvement should help him in free agency but it’s still unknown if a long-term contract will be out there for him. In the past seven years, Freddie Freeman is the only free agent first baseman to get a deal longer than three seasons. There have been some long extensions, including for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Olson, but those players were still in their 20s. Alonso’s defense has never been strong and has been especially poor in the last two years. Now that he’s about to turn 31 in December, teams may be wary about how he will age into his mid-30s.

Concerns aside, Alonso will be one of the best bats available. The Mets seemed genuinely willing to let him depart last winter, so the teams outside of Queens should have a legitimate shot at getting him.

Naylor doesn’t quite have the offensive ceiling as Alonso but he’s pretty solidly above average at the plate. He hit 20 home runs this year, his fourth straight season of getting that number to at least 17. He doesn’t walk a ton but doesn’t strike out either. His 13.7% strikeout rate this year was barely half of the 22.2% league average. His .295/.353/.462 line translated to a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% better than the league average hitter overall. That makes four straight seasons for Naylor with a wRC+ between 118 and 128.

Like most lefties, he’s better against right-handed pitching, but his splits aren’t extreme. His wRC+ against southpaws has been between 104 and 126 in each of the past three seasons, perfectly acceptable production.

He also has other intriguing qualities. The reviews on his glovework are mixed but not awful. He has 12 Outs Above Average at first base in his career. Defensive Runs Saved has him at -5 overall but that includes a -6 grade in 2024 which looks like an outlier. He’s been close to par in every other season of his career.

He’s not a burner on the basepaths, with Statcast crediting him with second percentile sprint speed, but he has shown a knack for stealing bases regardless. He swiped six to ten bags in the three prior seasons coming into 2025. This year, he cranked that way up to 30, including a shocking 19 steals after being traded to the Mariners at the deadline.

On top of his skills, Naylor’s market should be helped by his relative youth and the fact that he can’t receive a qualifying offer as a player traded midseason. As mentioned in the Alonso section, big league teams haven’t given many long deals to free agent first basemen recently, but Naylor’s reliability and relative youth could help him buck that trend.

A few years ago, O’Hearn looked like a lost cause with the Royals. However, he’s now coming off a strong three-year run as an above-average regular, mostly with the Orioles but also with the Padres after a deadline trade.

He hit 17 home runs this year and slashed .281/.366/.437 for a 127 wRC+. Going back to the start of 2023, he has a .277/.343/.445 line and 121 wRC+. Like Naylor, he doesn’t have Alonso’s huge offensive upside but he’s been a consistently strong contributor. Similar to Naylor, he’s a lefty without strong platoon concerns. O’Hearn had a 108 wRC+ against southpaws in 2023. That dipped to 74 last year but he brought it up to 135 this year. Overall, he has a .261/.326/.442 slash and a 116 wRC+ against lefties over the past three years.

O’Hearn’s glovework seems acceptable as well. He has four OAA at first base in his career. His -12 DRS total isn’t pretty but most of that came earlier in his career. He was credited with 4 DRS here in 2025. He can also play a corner outfield spot in a pinch.

Due to his late breakout, O’Hearn is older than both Alonso and Naylor. That will limit his market to shorter deals but he should be helped by a lack of a QO. Since he was traded midseason, he’s ineligible to receive one.

Everyday Players

The book on Arráez is well known at this point. He hardly ever walks but he’s also almost impossible to strike out. There’s not a ton of power but he’s the best contact hitter in the league. His 3.1% strikeout rate this year was easily the best in the majors among qualified hitters. Jacob Wilson came a distant second with a 7.5% rate.

However, Arráez’s overall production has been trending down lately. In 2022 and 2023, he had a combined .335/.384/.445 batting line and 131 wRC+. He had a .347 batting average on balls in play but that actually wasn’t too high for him personally. His swing seems perfectly designed to drop singles in between the infield and the outfield, so he has regularly had BABIPs in the .320 to .370 range, even though league average is usually around .290.

Over the past two years, he’s dropped down to a combined .303/.337/.392 line and 107 wRC+. The cause of that could be debated. He was playing through a torn thumb ligament last year and only hit four home runs. He’s never been a huge power guy but he’s usually good for eight to ten long balls a year. This year, this thumb has presumably healed and he hit eight homers, but his BABIP dropped to .289. That’s probably not all luck, as his average exit velocity, hard hit rate and barrel rate have all dropped in recent seasons.

He’s not a burner on the basepaths and isn’t especially well regarded on defense. He does have 2 DRS at first in his career but his -14 OAA mark is dreadful. His best trait is the ability to put the bat on the ball. He’s still doing that but with lesser results over the past two years. Put it all together and it’s one of the tougher markets to predict, but some team will find a lineup spot for him.

Bell is one of the most hot-and-cold bats in the majors, but he always seems to find his way to a solid season in the end. He signed a one-year, $6MM deal with the rebuilding Nationals coming into 2025. His first half was rough but he finished strong. The end result was a .239/.326/.421 line and 109 wRC+ over 533 plate appearances.

It’s been a long time since he was an All-Star, but Bell has never been on the injured list for more than a few days. He has appeared in at least 140 games in every full season going back to 2018. He hasn’t been a flashy player for a few years now but has still been solid. In the past three seasons, he hit between 19 and 22 home runs with respectable strikeout and walk rates. His wRC+ finished between 101 and 109 in all three of those campaigns.

His defense isn’t great and he hasn’t stolen a base since 2018. But for clubs who want a plug-and-play first baseman/designated hitter who should be in the lineup and contributing from time to time, Bell will be there and won’t be expensive.

Hoskins had a strong run with the Phillies as one of the most consistent power hitters in the league. However, his recent career has been more tumultuous. He suffered a torn ACL during spring training in 2023 and missed that entire season. He became a free agent and signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers, with an opt-out chance halfway through.

Both Hoskins and the Brewers were likely hoping for him to rebound after his lost year and then return to free agency. It hasn’t played out that way. His 2024 started strong, but he faded later in the year and finished with a .214/.303/.419 line and 101 wRC+. After that tepid year, he decided not to opt out and returned to the Brewers for 2025. He was a bit better this year on a rate basis, with a .237/.332/.416 line and 109 wRC+.

Unfortunately, a thumb sprain put him on the IL in July. While he was out, Andrew Vaughn took his job and ran with it. Hoskins was reinstated from the IL with about three weeks left in the season but hardly played, with Vaughn at first base and Christian Yelich in the DH spot most days. Hoskins was not included on Milwaukee’s NLDS roster. He’ll head into free agency without a lot of juice since his recent seasons haven’t been great, but he’s still been an above-average hitter on the whole. His deal has a mutual option for 2026 but it’s been more than a decade since a mutual option was picked up by both sides.

Platoon and Part-Time Bats

Flores battled knee troubles throughout 2024 and put up awful numbers. He bounced back somewhat in 2025, with production close to league average, though he didn’t get a ton of playing time in the second half as San Francisco’s acquisition of Rafael Devers squeezed Flores into a short-side platoon role with Dominic Smith. A right-handed hitter, Flores has been better against lefties in his career but had reverse splits this year. He finished the season with a .241/.307/.379 line and 95 wRC+.

France had a strong run from 2020 to 2023 but he’s now had two straight years of subpar offense. He signed a one-year deal with the Twins coming into 2025 and got flipped to the Blue Jays as part of the Louis Varland deadline deal. France finished the regular season with a .257/.320/.360 line and 92 wRC+. He finished the season on the IL due to an oblique injury and was left off Toronto’s ALDS roster.

The Yankees signed Goldschmidt to a one-year, $12.5MM deal in the offseason. He got out to a hot start but quickly ran out of gas. He had a .338/.394/.495 line and 148 wRC+ at the end of May but then slashed .226/.277/.333 for a 69 wRC+ the rest of the way. As he struggled, he got bumped into the short side of a platoon, with Ben Rice starting against most righties and Goldschmidt mostly facing lefties. Goldy had a 74 wRC+ against righties this year but a 169 wRC+ against lefties. Based on his track record, he could still get an everyday job somewhere. But considering his age and widening platoon splits, he might fit best as a veteran mentor and lefty masher/bench bat.

Santana has defied the aging curve by remaining a solid player into his late 30s, but 2025 wasn’t his best year. He slashed .219/.308/.325 for a wRC+ of 82. The Guardians released him in late August. He latched on with the Cubs but didn’t play much. Santana consented to an optional assignment late in the year and wasn’t on the club’s playoff roster. He’s still a great defender and the plate discipline is still good, so he could garner interest even as a 40-year-old coming off a rough year at the plate.

Smith spent the first few months of the season with the Yankees on a minor league deal. He opted out of that pact in the summer and signed with the Giants. He finished his season strong with a .284/.333/.417 line and 111 wRC+ in 63 games with San Francisco. Almost all of that production came against righties. The Giants only let him face southpaws 27 times and he had a .200/.259/.280 line in those matchups.

Solano has been a pretty solid big league hitter going back to 2019 but is coming off a down year. He was released by the Mariners in September and briefly latched on with the Rangers. Between those two clubs, he hit .247/.291/.337 for an 82 wRC+. He is capable of playing other positions but only got very brief looks at second and third base this year.

Tellez also split his time between the Mariners and Rangers in 2025. He hit a combined .228/.276/.443 for a 101 wRC+. He finished with a bit of momentum, as he slashed .259/.315/.457 with the Rangers down the stretch for a 115 wRC+ with that club. Still, it’s been two straight years with poor plate discipline and overall production around league average.

Turner has been staying away from Father Time throughout his late 30s but seems to finally have been caught. He signed a one-year, $6MM deal with the Cubs but hit .219/.288/.314 for a 71 wRC+ this season. He is on the Cubs’ playoff roster but hasn’t played much. His deal has a mutual option for 2026, but that won’t be picked up.

Wade had a strong run with the Giants from 2021 to 2024 but just had the worst season of his career. He slashed .167/.271/.254 in 242 plate appearances in 2025. He was designated for assignment by the Giants in June and landed with the Angels, but the latter club released him in early August. He didn’t sign anywhere else in the final two months of the season.

Options

Perez is primarily a catcher but has been spending more time at first base in recent years. It’s a fairly moot point for the free agent market, as Kansas City isn’t going to let its captain go. He is a franchise legend and he can be kept around for 2026 via a $13.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout, making it a net $11.5MM decision. Royals general manager J.J. Picollo has already essentially said Perez will be back in next year, so it seems the Royals will either pick up the option or work out a new extension.

Photo courtesy of Steven Bigig, Imagn Images

N.L. Notes: Horton, Chourio, Bader

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Cubs right-hander Cade Horton is potentially making some progress. According to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, he will throw off a mound this week as the club decides whether or not to include him on the NLCS roster, if they advance that far.

Horton debuted this year and hit the ground running. He logged 118 innings for the Cubs with a 2.67 earned run average. Unfortunately, his season ended on a sour note. Horton suffered a rib fracture in September and it was immediately apparent that he would miss at least one playoff series. The Cubs survived the Wild Card round without him but he still wasn’t on the roster for their NLDS matchup against the Brewers.

The Chicago rotation is feeling thin at the moment, composed of Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon. Boyd just got rocked by the Brewers on Saturday. He was charged with six runs, only two of them being earned, as he failed to get out of the first inning. The Cubs went on to lose 9-3. Imanaga and Taillon were both decent this year but both had subpar strikeout rates. If the Cubs can hang on for a best-of-seven NLCS, getting Horton in there to take some pressure of those guys could be a difference maker.

Mooney also adds that the Cubs expect Horton to earn a full year of service time, which is understandable. As a top prospect who was promoted late enough that he wasn’t slated to get a full service year, he can earn that full year retroactively by finishing top two in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting. Horton and Atlanta catcher Drake Baldwin are considered the frontrunners for that award, so Horton will likely get that full service year. That would put him on track to reach free agency after 2030 instead of 2031.

Some other injury updates from around the league…

  • Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio is in tonight’s lineup, batting leadoff against the Cubs. Chourio left the first game due to some right hamstring tightness. A subsequent MRI led to results which Pat Murphy described as “inconclusive,” adding that it’s “not a serious hamstring strain.” That implied that Chourio did indeed strain his hamstring, though the club is apparently comfortable running him out there tonight. Murphy said today, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, that Chourio is not 100% and they’ll take him out of the game if it appears necessary.
  • Phillies outfielder Harrison Bader was removed from his club’s first NLDS game against the Dodgers due to a groin injury. He’s not in tonight’s Game Two lineup but he could be available to pinch hit. Manager Rob Thomson passed the new on to reporters, including Lochlahn March of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Bader is an excellent defender and he hit .305/.361/.463 after being acquired from the Twins at the deadline, so the Phillies will obviously want him back in there as soon as possible. The Phils have Otto Kemp, Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos in the lineup tonight from left to right. Max Kepler is also in the mix, though he’s probably not starting tonight since lefty Blake Snell is on the bump for the Dodgers.

Photo courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images

Dodgers Notes: Smith, Ohtani, Glasnow

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The Dodgers took the first game of their NLDS matchup against the Phillies. As they gear up for the second contest, manager Dave Roberts revealed some notes about the roster. Notably, Roberts said that Will Smith could start behind the plate in Game Three, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic.

The club has largely been without Smith for about a month. He took a foul ball off his throwing hand in early September, suffering a hairline fracture, and hasn’t played much since. He has been on the club’s postseason roster but hasn’t started a game yet. He did enter the first game against Philly as a pinch hitter, striking out twice and getting hit by a pitch. Ben Rortvedt has taken up the lion’s share of playing time with Smith out and is in the starting lineup again tonight but it seems possible Smith is trending towards retaking that playing time.

That’s potentially a huge boost for the Dodgers. Smith had a massive .296/.404/.497 line and 153 wRC+ this year. Rortvedt has managed a massive .500/.571/.667 line in the playoffs this year, but in a tiny sample of just three games. He’s obviously not going to maintain that production, especially when considering his .190/.279/.270 line in his regular season career. Even though Smith is getting healthier, he may not be immediately available to resume his previous level of production, so his condition could be an ongoing storyline as long as the Dodgers stay alive.

Roberts also confirmed the club’s rotation plans. Game one starter Shohei Ohtani will take the ball in game five, if necessary, and won’t be available out of the bullpen before then. Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register was among the reporters to pass that along.

It’s quite common for starting pitchers to be available in the bullpen during the playoffs. More off-days allow clubs to shrink their rotations, which leads to some guys getting nudged out. Also, the “all hands on deck” nature of playoff baseball makes teams and players push things beyond normal comfort levels.

The idea of Ohtani making relief appearances has been kicked around but it’s understandable why the Dodgers would lean against it. For one thing, his workload is already double that of the normal player, given his status as a two-way player. Adding in some extra relief work would only tax him further.

There’s also the in-game strategy component of it. MLB implemented a rule in 2022 that would allow a starting pitcher to be removed from his pitching duties but stay in the game as the designated hitter. This basically only applies to Ohtani, so it’s often referred to as the “Shohei Ohtani rule”. But if Ohtani is not the starting pitcher and enters as a reliever, then is removed, he would have to either come out of the game or play a defensive position.

Taking all that into consideration, it’s understandable that the Dodgers are keeping things simple. Blake Snell is starting game two tonight with Yoshinobu Yamamoto taking the ball in game three. It seems likely that Tyler Glasnow will start game four, though he did make a relief appearance on Saturday. He came in after Ohtani and logged an inning and two thirds, throwing 34 pitches in the process. Despite that relief outing, Roberts said yesterday that Glasnow was in line to start Game Four, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Ohtani would then start Game Five, though Snell would also be on normal rest by then and could be a factor.

Photo courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio, Imagn Images

Carlos Narvaez To Undergo Knee Surgery

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Red Sox catcher Carlos Narvaez will undergo a “cleanup” procedure on the meniscus in his left knee, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow announced Monday at his end-of-season press conference (link via Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald). He’s expected to be ready for spring training.

Narvaez played through much of the second half with pain in his knee. He missed four straight games in early August due to the injury. Narvaez’s splits from the season generally reflect that the catcher was playing at less than 100 percent down the stretch. From Opening Day through July 9, he slashed .280/.354/.453 in 274 turns at the plate. From that point through season’s end, Narvaez turned in a lowly .181/.229/.369 batting line. His strikeout rate climbed in each of the season’s final three months and reached a boiling point by mid-September; Narvaez fanned in a bit more than 23% of his plate appearances through the season’s first three months but went down on strikes in 13 of his final 44 plate appearances (29.5%).

Even with the ugly finish to the season, Narvaez’s overall 2025 campaign was a roaring success. Acquired from the archrival Yankees in exchange for pitching prospect Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, Narvaez broke camp as the backup in Boston but quickly laid claim to the starting catching job. He finished out the year with a roughly league-average batting line of .241/.306/.419 (97 wRC+) and swatted 15 home runs in his first big league season. Narvaez also graded out as a plus defender, thwarting 28% of stolen-base attempts against him while delivering above-average grades for pitch framing and blocking balls in the dirt (via Statcast).

Narvaez’s ascension dovetailed with regression from former starter Connor Wong. Assuming all goes well with Narvaez’s knee procedure, he’s the favorite to head into spring training as the Red Sox’ starting catcher next season. Boston has an additional five full seasons of club control remaining, and Narvaez won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after the 2027 season.

Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat, Today 2pm CT

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Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! I'll get going at 2pm CT, but as always, feel free to submit questions ahead of time. Looking forward to it!
  • Let's begin!

Dave

  • Instead of signing K Tucker to $450 million and 10 years should the Dodgers reunite with Cody Bellinger for $150 million and 5 years?   Thanks

Steve Adams

  • I think that's a bit heavier than what both would get. I don't really expect the Dodgers to be prime players for Tucker, as I've said. Obviously they can afford to, but they've really only gone to the absolute top of the market/long-term for Yamamoto (25 years old), Ohtani (unicorn for obvious reasons) and, to a lesser extent, Betts (who was a year younger than Tucker and was an extension at a price that didn't break the bank as some might've expected).Adding Tucker (or Bellinger, for that matter) when they already have Pages and Teoscar (through 2027) just seems to further take potential ABs away from Dalton Rushing and prospects like Josue De Paula and Zyhir Hope.

    Maybe they just love Tucker and don't care about blocking all those guys -- they could all be traded, I suppose -- but I'm just not big on the idea of the Dodgers shelling out nine figures for any outfielder this winter. (Others on the MLBTR staff are more open to the idea than I am, for what it's worth)

ArchTiger

  • Can a HR-driven team win in the playoffs?

Steve Adams

  • You'd have to go back to the 2019 Nationals to find the most recent time a team outside the top four in terms of home run output won the World Series. I assume you're talking more about teams that are dependent solely on home runs to score, but even that's a little different in the playoffs versus the postseason. You're just not going to face a team's fifth starter or sixth-best reliever in the playoffs unless the game's already out of hand. Every club is a little more homer-dependent in the postseason, because they're facing better pitchers who make fewer mistakes, so the difference will often come down to who can capitalize most often on the relatively fewer number of mistake pitches they see.

Ned Colletti’s Toupee

  • Does Munetaka Murakami’s value take a hit because he’s limited to a corner outfield or first base?  I know he will get paid but I don’t see him getting Yamamoto money.

Steve Adams

  • Murakami's value takes a hit because he strikes out too much in Japan, even against lesser pitching, has struggled in the past against above-average velocity (I don't have his '25 numbers against MLB-caliber fastballs handy, but the average NPB heater is like 91-92 mph), and yes, because he's a poor defender who's best suited at 1B in all likelihood.
  • I imagine there might be clubs willing to play him at 3B briefly early in his MLB run.
  • He's probably a 1B long term, but I don't think 325MM like Yamamoto has ever been plausible since his numbers dipped a bit after the back-to-back MVP wins in 2021-22. He's still going to cash in on something worth more than $100MM in all likelihood, but to your point, I wouldn't be surprised if he signed for less than half of what Yamamoto got

Steve from the Cleve

  • Cleveland needs an OF bat that can hit LHP. Robert Jr can't be had since he's on the White Sox and expensive. Tyrone Taylor was Tim Dierkes suggestion, but you might as well play Petey Halpin instead since he's a great fielder, runner and had a .734 OPS in AAA. Seems like there aren't any good options who are younger than 33

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Nick Hundley Interviews For Giants’ Managerial Opening

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October 6th: Hundley has now been interviewed by the Giants, reports Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle.

October 5th: As the Giants get their managerial search underway following Bob Melvin’s recent dismissal, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that catcher Nick Hundley is “strongly in the mix” for the job. It’s unclear whether Hundley has interviewed for the position at this point, but the fact that his name has come up so clearly is nonetheless notable.

Hundley, 42, was a big league catcher for parts of 12 seasons and served as the Giants’ primary backup to Buster Posey for the 2017 and ’18 seasons. After serving under Posey as part of the team’s catching tandem, it now appears Posey has interest in bringing Hundley in to serve as his manager now that he’s become San Francisco’s president of baseball operations. Hundley immediately jumped into an off-the-field role with the league upon announcing his retirement in 2020, as he became a senior director of baseball operations with the commissioner’s office.

He spent two years in that role before departing the league office to take up a job in the Rangers organization, where he serves as a special assistant to president of baseball operations Chris Young. Hundley won a World Series in the organization in 2023, and during that playoff run was actually a candidate to manage the Giants when then-president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi was looking to replace Gabe Kapler in the dugout. At the time, it was reported that Hundley had withdrawn himself from consideration before receiving an interview due to family considerations. He had talked to both Zaidi and Posey himself about the role before making that decision, however, indicating that he had at least some level of interest.

With no interview confirmed to have taken place, it’s not necessarily a lock that Hundley would accept the opportunity to interview if offered given his past decision to decline that invitation. With that being said, it’s entirely possible that whatever concerns Hundley had about jumping back into the grind and travel involved with a managerial role have resolved themselves in the past two years, or even that the idea of reporting directly to a former teammate like Posey holds enough appeal to get him involved in the process again. It’s also worth noting that Heyman made clear Hundley has “no guarantees” of landing the position, even in the event he has changed his mind about his desire to manage.

Whatever the case may be regarding Hundley’s candidacy, he’s far from the only person the Giants will talk to about their managerial gig. Former All-Star and longtime Oakland A’s catcher Kurt Suzuki is known to have interviewed for the position. Former Giants bullpen coach Craig Albernaz, now in Cleveland as Stephen Vogt’s bench coach and associate manager, is “expected to get a look” for the job as well. It’s worth noting that all three of Hundley, Suzuki, and Albernaz have connections to the Bay Area, though that may not necessarily be something Posey is looking for specifically in his next manager. Whoever next sits in the manager’s chair for the Giants will be an external hire, as Posey is not expected to interview any members of the current coaching staff for the job.

NPB’s Takahiro Norimoto Mulling Potential Move To MLB

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Right-hander Takahiro Norimoto of the Rakuten Eagles in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball is planning to exercise his international free agent rights and gauge interest from both MLB and NPB teams this winter, per a report from Yahoo Japan (hat tip to Yakyu Cosmopolitan). He’s hired the Wasserman agency to represent him in talks with major league teams, per the report. The now-34-year-old righty moved to the bullpen in 2024 after a lengthy and successful run as a starting pitcher. He’s spent the past two seasons as the Eagles’ closer.

Norimoto is older than most players making the transition from NPB to MLB. He’ll turn 35 in December. The right-hander is coming off a nice year with the Eagles, having pitched to a 3.02 ERA with 16 saves, four holds and only two blown saves. His 17.2% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate don’t exactly stand out, though Norimoto has still shown the ability to run his heater up in the 97 mph range since moving to the bullpen last season. He kept nearly 50% of his opponents’ batted balls on the ground this past season as well.

Norimoto hasn’t had issues missing bats in the past. He led NPB in strikeouts for five straight years, from 2014-18, while working out of the Eagles’ rotation. He’s pitched 1838 career innings in NPB and recorded a 3.12 ERA while winning 120 games, saving another 48 and punching out nearly 24% of his opponents (against a 6.3% walk rate).

Due to the fact that Norimoto is at least 25 and has at least six full seasons of professional experience, he’s exempt from Major League Baseball’s international bonus pool structure. The fact that he has more than nine seasons of service in NPB means he is also exempt from the posting system. If he indeed exercises those international free agent rights, he’d be free to sign with any club on a big league or minor league deal — provided MLB teams have sufficient interest in the former Pacific League Rookie of the Year and six-time NPB All-Star.

While we don’t see too many players jump to MLB in their mid-30s, Orioles right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano did just that in 2025. This past year was Sugano’s rookie season in MLB and came in his own age-35 campaign. Sugano, of course, did so as a starter. Former Red Sox righty Hirokazu Sawamura and former D-backs/Mariners righty Yoshihisa Hirano are more recent examples of relievers making relatively successful moves to MLB in their mid-30s; the former signed with Boston ahead of his age-33 season in 2022, while the latter signed with Arizona ahead of the 2018 campaign, his age-34 season.

Big league clubs are always on the lookout for affordable bullpen help, so there could still be interest in Norimoto even if he’s not as coveted at 35 as he might’ve been in his physical peak. As a rotation-mate of former Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka for Tanaka’s first three seasons back in Japan after his run in the Bronx, Norimoto has surely picked the former MLB All-Star’s brain about moving to the majors in the past. It’s not entirely certain he’ll be pitching in North America next year, but he’s an interesting wild card entrant into the offseason bullpen market.

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