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Royals, Dodgers Complete Danny Duffy Trade

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The Royals announced they’ve acquired right-handed pitching prospect Zach Willeman from the Dodgers. The move completes the clubs’ July 29 deal that sent left-hander Danny Duffy to Los Angeles.

Willeman, 25, is a former 19th-round pick by Los Angeles. A starter early in his minor league career, he worked exclusively out of the bullpen this past season with Double-A Tulsa. Over 47 2/3 frames of relief, he pitched to a 3.78 ERA with an above-average 28.2% strikeout rate but an elevated 11% walk percentage. The Royals will need to add Willeman to the 40-man roster or leave him exposed in the upcoming Rule 5 draft. If he earns a spot on the 40-man, he could be a bullpen option at the big league level at some point next season.

The Dodgers ultimately got nothing out of their low-cost flier on Duffy. The veteran southpaw was on the injured list with a flexor strain at the time of the deal. Expected to return a few weeks after the trade, Duffy unfortunately had a setback and was shut down for the season. He’ll be a free agent this winter.

Royals Promote Angel Zerpa

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The Royals announced the promotion of southpaw Angel Zerpa to start this evening’s game against the Indians. It’ll be his major league debut. He was added to the 40-man roster last winter to keep him from selection in the Rule 5 draft, so no move was needed in that regard. Southpaw Daniel Lynch was placed on the 10-day injured list due to a right hand contusion to clear active roster space.

Kansas City has brought up a slew of pitching prospects over the past couple seasons. Zerpa isn’t seen as the same caliber of talent as players like Lynch, Brady Singer, and Jackson Kowar, but he’s still viewed as one of the top handful of pitching prospects in the system. Entering the year, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted Zerpa as the #10 farmhand in the Kansas City organization, while Baseball America placed him 20th on their midseason update.

Both outlets note that Zerpa doesn’t throw especially hard — his sinker typically ranges from 90-94 MPH — but he draws praise for his advanced strike-throwing acumen and secondary offerings, especially his mid-80s changeup. Longenhagen suggests Zerpa could settle into the back of the rotation in the future, while BA projects him as a likely reliever.

Zerpa will break into the big leagues as a starter, although he could be an option to work in either capacity for the Royals fairly early next season. He’s only made one career Triple-A appearance, so he seems likely to begin the year in the minors. But the Kansas City front office clearly believes Zerpa’s not far away from being a regular big league contributor.

While Zerpa had never pitched above Rookie ball before this season, the Royals added him to the 40-man last November because they believed it plausible another club could fast-track him to the big leagues as a Rule 5 pick to gain his long-term control rights. He’ll indeed make it to the majors just a few days after his 22nd birthday, the culmination of a four-level journey this season.

Zerpa has a 4.58 ERA in 88 1/3 minor league innings this year. He began the campaign in High-A and posted a sterling 2.59 mark. An inflated .370 batting average on balls in play after a promotion to Double-A led to a 5.96 ERA at that level, but he posted high-end strikeout and walk rates (28.9% and 7.4%, respectively) across all three levels. That showing earns Zerpa a late-season audition in the big leagues.

Royals’ Richard Lovelady Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Royals left-hander Richard Lovelady announced late last night on Instagram that he underwent Tommy John surgery this week. It’s not entirely out of the blue, as the 26-year-old southpaw was placed on the 10-day injured list due to a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in late August.

Tommy John surgery will quite likely wipe out the entirety of the 2022 season for Lovelady, as most pitchers require more than a year of rehab work. The Cardinals’ Dakota Hudson is one recent exception, but even he returned just four days shy of his operation’s one-year anniversary. It’s technically possible that Lovelady could be ready late next September, but precedent very strongly suggests Spring Training 2023 is a likelier target date.

Losing Lovelady for a full year’s time is a notable hit to Kansas City’s bullpen outlook next season. Long rated as one of the organization’s most promising relief prospects, Lovelady has dominated in the minors and, in 2021, had begun to carry that success over to the big leagues. While Lovelady struggled in 21 MLB frames from 2019-20, he pitched to a 3.48 ERA with strong strikeout (27.1), walk  (7.1) and ground-ball (56.6) percentages in 20 2/3 innings this year. Combine that success with a career 2.12 ERA in the minor leagues, including a 2.51 mark in 107 1/3 Triple-A frames, and it’s easy to see why the organization is increasingly bullish on the lefty’s future.

The recent injury surely doesn’t change the Royals’ view that Lovelady can be a big part of their pitching staff down the road, but the wait for him to cement himself as such will now be further prolonged. That said, the Royals still control Lovelady all the way through the 2026 season, so even if he’s not back on a big league mound until 2023, they could still enjoy four full seasons of the talented lefty before he’s eligible to test the free-agent market. He’ll accrue a year of service time and big league pay next year on the 60-day injured list due to the fact that the injury occurred while he was pitching on the big league roster.

Looking ahead to the 2022 campaign, the Royals will lean heavily on the late-inning duo of Scott Barlow and Josh Staumont to close things down, while lefty Jake Brentz and righty Domingo Tapia have quite likely punched their tickets for a spot on the big league staff as well. Bullpen help, however, already figured to be a priority for the Kansas City front office this winter. Losing one of the team’s more promising arms for the majority or entirety of next season only makes that an even likelier area of focus for newly promoted president of baseball operations Dayton Moore, general manager J.J. Piccolo and the rest of the Royals’ baseball ops department.

Royals Announce Front Office Promotions

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  • The Royals announced a pair of promotions yesterday. Lonnie Goldberg has been promoted from assistant GM/amateur scouting to vice president of player personnel, while Danny Ontiveros has been bumped up from assistant director of scouting to scouting director. Both Goldberg and Ontiveros have been in the Kansas City organization for well over a decade, with much of that time spent in the club’s scouting department. Earlier this month, the Royals bumped longtime baseball operations leader Dayton Moore up to president of baseball operations, promoted AGM J.J. Piccolo to general manager, and brought veteran executive Gene Watson back into the fold after he departed Kansas City to join the Angels last winter.

Royals Extend Michael A. Taylor

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The Royals announced an agreement to keep center fielder Michael A. Taylor from hitting the open market this winter. Taylor receives a two-year, $9MM guarantee, paid out via successive $4.5MM salaries in 2022 and 2023. He’d receive an additional $50K for hitting the 325, 375, 425, 475 and 525 plate appearance mark in each season, with up to $500K in total incentives available. Taylor is represented by ALIGND Sports Agency.

It’s a bit surprising at first glance to see Kansas City jump the market to extend Taylor, who is amidst a below-average year at the plate in his first season in Royal blue. Across 508 plate appearances, the 30-year-old owns a .244/.298/.359 line with twelve home runs. Even after accounting for Kansas City’s extremely pitcher-friendly home ballpark, Taylor’s offensive numbers check in around 21 percentage points below league average according to wRC+.

That’s right in line with his typical production. The right-handed hitter spent the first seven seasons of his big league career with the Nationals, generally struggling to produce much offensively. Taylor has flashed intriguing power potential at times, but he’s been held back by a propensity to swing and miss. He’s not a complete free swinger — Taylor’s rate of chasing pitches outside the strike zone hovers right around league average — but he comes up empty quite a bit even when swinging at pitches inside the strike zone.

Taylor has posted above-average offensive numbers just once in parts of eight big league seasons. Over 432 plate appearances with the Nats in 2017, he hit .271/.320/.486 and popped 19 homers. That season was propped up by an unsustainably high .363 batting average on balls in play, though, and Taylor hasn’t found that kind of success in the years since. Going back to the start of the 2018 campaign, he owns a .234/.291/.364 line with an alarming 28.9% strikeout rate.

That the Royals are anxious to keep Taylor off the open market in spite of his offensive struggles is a testament to his prowess with the glove. Taylor rated very highly defensively throughout his time in Washington, and he’s continued to excel on that side of the ball with Kansas City.

Aside from a pair of semi-rest days at designated hitter, Taylor has lined up exclusively in center field this season. Over 1,141 innings at the position, he’s rated as a staggering 21 runs above average, by measure of Defensive Runs Saved. That’s six runs clear of second-place finisher Harrison Bader. Statcast’s range-based Outs Above Average metric paints a similar picture. By that measure, Taylor is tied with Bader and Manuel Margot with an outfield-best +14 plays. Those advanced metrics align with Taylor’s general reputation for defensive excellence.

The Royals have long valued defense more than most clubs, partially because of the extreme spaciousness of Kauffman Stadium. Excellent glovework was a backbone of their back-to-back pennant winners (and one-time champions) last decade, and the front office continues to place a real emphasis on turning batted balls into outs. With Taylor among the sport’s best handful of players at tracking down fly balls, they’ve struck early to keep him in the fold for the next couple seasons.

While Kansas City surely values Taylor quite a bit, it’s also worth keeping in mind that there wouldn’t have been too many viable alternatives available even if they wished to turn elsewhere. Starling Marte handily tops the upcoming free agent center field class, but he always seemed likely to land a multi-year deal that would’ve been above the Royals’ typical range of spending. Beyond Marte, the class features a group of players who have almost unanimously scuffled offensively this season — Kevin Pillar, Jake Marisnick and Danny Santana among them. There’d have been a strong case for Taylor as the second-best overall center fielder available in free agency.

It’s similarly unclear which center fielders would be attainable in trade. There’ll surely be plenty of calls on players like Cedric Mullins, Bryan Reynolds and Ketel Marte, but their teams’ willingness to make those respective players available ranges from questionable to highly unlikely.

Rather than test the vagaries of the free agency and trade markets, the Royals will lock Taylor into center field for the next couple seasons. Last winter, Kansas City added veterans Mike Minor and Carlos Santana on multi-year free agent deals in an effort to contend. That didn’t pan out, but president of baseball operations Dayton Moore and his front office will surely make another run at being competitive this winter. Santana will be back at first base, while franchise cornerstone Salvador Pérez returns on the heels of one of the better offensive seasons by a catcher in recent memory. Nicky Lopez has played well enough to earn an everyday job somewhere, even if top prospect Bobby Witt Jr. comes up early in the season and stakes a claim to Lopez’s current shortstop position. And the versatile Whit Merrifield will be back to hold down a role at some spot on the diamond while hitting at the top of the lineup.

Taylor’s deal brings the Royals’ guaranteed commitments just north of $50MM, in the estimation of Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez.  That’s before accounting for a fairly modest arbitration class, which will feature raises for players like Brad Keller, Adalberto Mondesi, Scott Barlow and Lopez. Even if that group winds up banking something in the collective $10-15MM range, that still leaves a bit of breathing room for further additions before hitting this season’s $86MM+ mark. It’s certainly possible ownership would be willing to spend beyond this season’s level, since the franchise has run payrolls north of $120MM in the past.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Royals’ agreement with Taylor on a two-year, $9MM deal. Alec Lewis of the Athletic reported the deal contained an additional $500K in available incentives. Anne Rogers of MLB.com reported the salaries were to be paid out equally in each season, while Robert Murray of FanSided was first with the specific incentive structure.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Royals Select Dylan Coleman

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The Royals have selected the contract of righty Dylan Coleman and reinstated right-hander Brady Singer from the injured list, per a club announcement. Kansas City moved fellow righties Brad Keller and Wade Davis from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL in a pair of corresponding 40-man roster moves. (A 40-man move was necessary for Singer, who’d been on the Covid-related injured list.) The Royals are also calling up outfielder Edward Olivares as the 29th man for today’s doubleheader.

Coleman, 25, joined the Royals alongside Olivares in last summer’s Trevor Rosenthal trade with the Padres. The 2018 fourth-rounder has enjoyed a strong season in the upper minors, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A while recording a combined 3.28 ERA with a massive 40.4 percent strikeout rate and a 9.6 percent walk rate in 57 2/3 innings of relief.

Coleman ranked 18th among Royals farmhands on the midseason rankings from FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and 29th over at MLB.com. Longenhagen notes that while Coleman lost some life on his fastball in 2019, he’s now throwing harder than ever before, sitting upper 90s and occasionally reaching 100 mph. Both FanGraphs and MLB.com note that his slider lacks consistency, however, so he’ll need to refine that offering (or develop a new secondary offering) if he’s to settle in as a high-leverage option in the Kansas City bullpen.

The news on Keller and Davis isn’t especially surprising at this point. The Royals revealed last week that Keller would be shut down for the season, and Davis went on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation five days ago. He’d technically have had time to return, but there’d only have been about a week’s worth of games remaining on the calendar by the earliest date on which he could be activated. Davis is a free agent at season’s end. Keller is arbitration-eligible and under club control through the 2023 season.

Royals Shut Down Brad Keller For Remainder Of Season

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Right-hander Brad Keller has been shut down for the rest of the season, Royals manager Mike Matheny told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters.  Keller hasn’t pitched since August 26 due to a Grade 2 strain in his right lat, and there isn’t enough time remaining in the season for Keller to fully rehab and return to the mound.

The news officially ends Keller’s fourth MLB season after 26 starts and 133 2/3 innings, and beyond reliably taking the ball and soaking up some innings in the K.C. rotation, 2021 was certainly Keller’s most difficult year.  The righty posted a 5.39 ERA/4.84 SIERA, plus strikeout (19.6%) and walk (10.4%) rates that were well below the league average.  The walk rate is the worst of Keller’s brief career while his strikeout rate is actually his best, as Keller has relied on a grounder-heavy arsenal to retire batters.  Keller was aided by a .280 BABIP over his first three seasons, though the combination of a .347 BABIP and some of the worst hard-contact numbers in league contributed mightily to his struggles this year.

While the overall numbers are grim, most of Keller’s issues came in the first half of the season.  Over his last nine starts and 52 2/3 innings, Keller had a much more respectable 3.42 ERA, though his strikeout and walk rates were only slightly improved.  Still, if Keller had somewhat turned the corner on his season, his lat strain cost him the opportunity to make a strong finish and earn a few extra dollars in arbitration this winter.  Keller will be arb-eligible for the second time this winter, after agreeing to a $3.35MM salary for 2021.

Though the Royals have several younger pitchers who will be expected to take on bigger roles in the 2022 rotation, Keller’s tough season likely won’t threaten his spot in the starting five.  Keller is still only 26 himself, and the former Rule 5 Draft pick has had enough success at the MLB level that the Royals aren’t going to give up on him this quickly.  However, Kansas City might still look to add another veteran starter this offseason in order to add some reliability to a rotation mix that struggled as a whole.

Royals Hire Gene Watson As Vice President/Assistant GM

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The Royals announced the hiring of veteran executive Gene Watson as vice president and assistant general manager of major league scouting, relays Alec Lewis of the Athletic. Alden González of ESPN reported Wednesday that Watson would be taking on a role in the Kansas City front office.

Watson is no stranger to the Royals, as he previously spent fourteen years in the organization as a scout and executive. He’d ascended to the role of senior director of pro scouting and assistant to the general manager before departing last December to join the Angels’ front office. Watson interviewed for the Angels’ GM job last winter and ultimately accepted a special advisor role in Los Angeles after the team hired Perry Minasian to lead baseball operations. (He also interviewed for the Astros’ GM job that eventually went to James Click the previous offseason).

Kansas City will welcome the well-respected evaluator back into the fold as part of a broader shakeup of the front office structure. On Tuesday, the Royals promoted longtime GM Dayton Moore to president of baseball operations, bumping assistant GM J.J. Piccolo up to general manager in the process.

Royals Place Brady Singer On Injured List, Select Jon Heasley

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The Royals have placed right-hander Brady Singer on the injured list and selected the contract of right-hander Jon Heasley from Double-A Northwest Arkansas, per a club announcement. An injury designation was not provided for Singer. The Royals already had a full 40-man roster but did not announce a corresponding move, suggesting that Singer is going on the Covid-19-related IL.

Heasley is expected to start tonight’s game in Singer’s place, tweets Alec Lewis of The Athletic. The 6’3″, 225-pound righty was Kansas City’s 13th-round pick back in the 2018 draft and has turned in a solid season in Double-A thus far. Through 105 1/3 innings, the 24-year-old had pitched to a 3.33 ERA with a 27.7 percent strikeout rate, a 7.9 percent walk rate and a 38.9 percent ground-ball rate.

Baseball America ranked Heasley as the Royals’ No. 17 prospect on its midseason reranking of the team’s farm system, and he’s listed 14th over at MLB.com. Both reports praise Heasley’s high-spin four-seamer, which tops out at 97 mph, and an above-average curveball. He throws a changeup and slider as well. Heasley hasn’t drawn as much national fanfare as teammates like Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic, but he gives Kansas City yet another young, MLB-ready rotation candidate for 2022 and beyond.

The Royals didn’t specify whether Heasley is being selected as a Covid-related replacement player for Singer, though making that designation would allow the team to return Heasley to the minors without needing to first pass him through waivers. However, Heasley would be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this offseason if not on the 40-man roster, so it’s likely the Royals would’ve added him within the next two months or so anyhow.

Singer, 25, is third on the Royals in both innings pitched and games started, trailing only Mike Minor and Brad Keller in that regard. He’s taken a step back from last season’s solid rookie debut, pitching to a 4.85 ERA with a 22.4 percent strikeout rate and 9.2 percent walk rate — both slightly worse than league-average — through 120 2/3 frames. Singer has been hampered by a .347 average on balls in play, however — an 87-point increase over last season’s .260 mark despite giving up less hard contact than he did a year ago. Metrics like FIP and SIERA feel he’s been essentially the same pitcher as in 2020, pegging him in the low-4.00 range.

Royals Place Mike Minor On Injured List

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The Royals have placed left-hander Mike Minor on the 10-day injured list due to left shoulder impingement syndrome and recalled righty Scott Blewett from Triple-A Omaha, per a club announcement. Righty Carlos Hernandez is moving up in the rotation and starting tonight in Minor’s place. Left-hander Daniel Lynch will get the nod tomorrow.

Given the timing of the injury, it’s at least possible this will mark the end of Minor’s season. Minor’s placement on the IL is retroactive to Monday, so he could be back in about a week’s time, but there’d only be 12 days left in the season, at most, once Minor is eligible to return.

Minor, 33, revitalized his career as a reliever with the Royals back in 2017 — his first stint with the club. He signed a two-year, $18M contract with Kansas City this past offseason in hopes of doing so a second time, but he hasn’t been able to improve much upon last year’s 5.56 ERA.

To his credit, Minor has been a stabilizing presence in the Kansas City rotation and has been quite effective of late. He’s taken the ball 28 times this year and soaked up 158 2/3 frames, keeping the Royals from leaning too heavily on a collection of young arms whose workloads they’d hoped to closely monitor this season. And while Minor was struggling for much of the season’s first four months, he’d given the Royals a solid 3.78 ERA with a 21.2 percent strikeout rate and a brilliant 3.7 percent walk rate in 52 2/3 innings across his past nine outings.  That type of output was likely just what the Royals hoped for in signing Minor, but because of his ugly start to the season, that recent streak has only dropped his ERA to 5.05.

Minor has become increasingly homer-prone in recent years, and his strikeout rate is also down from the past two seasons, although he’s counteracted that to an extent with one of his stingiest walk rates. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP, xFIP, xERA and SIERA all peg Minor in the 4.28 to 4.44 range, suggesting there’s some hope that he can continue to the solid run he put together late in the 2021 season next year — health permitting, of course. The Royals owe Minor $10MM in 2022 , and his contract also contains a $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout.

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