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Phillies Acquire Jordan Qsar From Rays

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The Phillies have acquired outfielder Jordan Qsar from the Rays, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The Phillies are sending cash considerations the other way, per Matt Gelb of The Athletic.

Qsar, 27, will jump to just the second organization of his career, as he’s spent it all with the Rays until now. That club selected him in the 25th round of the 2018 draft. Since then, Qsar has moved his way up the minor league ladder, showing some power and on-base ability, but also huge strikeout numbers.

Last year, Qsar split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, getting into 102 games between those two levels. In his 411 plate appearances, he hit 17 home runs and walked at a 10.7% clip but also got punched out at a 38.2% rate. His combined batting line was .227/.321/.452, leading to a wRC+ of 101, indicating he was a hair above average. He also swiped 11 bags on the season.

Qsar got a non-roster invite to spring with the Rays but has struggled mightily. In 31 plate appearances, he’s struck out 14 times, a 45.2% rate. His batting line is .192/.323/.192, which includes five walks, a 16.1% rate. Spring performance aside, the Phils evidently still like the power and on-base potential Qsar brings and have brought him aboard.

The Phillies are likely to have an outfield of Brandon Marsh in center, flanked by Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos in the corners. With Bryce Harper out of action until midseason due to Tommy John surgery, the designated hitter spot is open, with Schwarber and Castellanos perhaps seeing some time there. Jake Cave and Dalton Guthrie could be in the mix for a fourth outfielder role, with the 40-man roster also featuring Simon Muzziotti, Jhailyn Ortiz and Johan Rojas. Qsar will give the club some non-roster depth alongside that group, having played all three spots in his career.

Phillies Release Mark Appel

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The Phillies announced today that right-hander Mark Appel has been released. He had been in camp on a minor league deal. They also reassigned left-hander Ben Bowden, right-hander Louis Head and catcher Max McDowell to minor league camp.

Appel, 31, had been having a rough showing this spring. In six appearances, he allowed six walks and ten hits, including three home runs. He did record five strikeouts, but the seven earned runs in 5 2/3 innings led to an ERA of 11.12.

The righty was looking continue a nice comeback story from last year. The first overall pick from the 2013 draft, taken by the Astros, Appel was a mainstay of top prospect lists for a few years. He was traded to the Phillies prior to the 2016 season in the deal that sent Ken Giles to Houston. Unfortunately, his results in the minors didn’t live up to his prospect pedigree, with elbow and shoulder injuries hampering his progress.

He walked away from the game after the 2017 season, candidly discussing his physical and mental struggles with Joon Lee of Bleacher Report at that time, admitting that he might be the worst draft bust in MLB history. “It depends on how you define it, but I probably am,” Appel said. “I had high expectations. I didn’t live up to those for a number of reasons. If you want to call me the biggest draft bust, you can call it that. … If I never get to the big leagues, will it be a disappointment? Yes and no. That was a goal and a dream I had at one point, but that’s with stipulations that I’m healthy, I’m happy and doing something I love. If I get to the big leagues, what’s so great about the big leagues if you’re in an isolated place, you’re hurt and you’re emotionally unhappy? How much is that worth to you?”

In 2021, he began a comeback attempt, returning to the Phillies. He only posted a 6.06 ERA in the minors that year, but it would be fair to expect a bit of rust after three years without any organized game action. He was much better last year, posting a 1.61 ERA in Triple-A through the end of June. Amazingly, his comeback attempt resulted in him finally getting to the majors. The Phillies selected him to the roster on June 25 and he was able to make six appearances for the club, with a 1.74 ERA in 10 1/3 innings. Some elbow inflammation put him on the injured list in September and ended his season, but he had made it to the show.

After the season, he was outrighted off the roster but returned to the Phillies on a minor league deal. Unfortunately, he’s hit another setback here in spring and has been set loose. Appel took to Twitter recenty to publicly ruminate about his current position, bringing the same kind of candidness he showed when walking away from the game all those years ago. It doesn’t appear he’s planning to walk away right now, but he is remarkably self-aware of the fact that he may have exhausted his opportunities.

“I am a 31-year-old rookie relief pitcher with 6 MLB appearances to my name,” he says in the thread. “I’m not on the 40-man roster. I’m a career 5+ minor league ERA pitcher with a history of injuries. All logic suggests the odds are not in my favor.” He continues: “The reality is I am one of a large number of players that find themselves in this “in-between” space. Good enough to help a big league team (in a small role) if given the opportunity, but too old or lacking experience for teams to be patient. The future is wildly uncertain.” Appel goes on to get into detail about his approach to battling the anxiety that comes with his precarious position and trying to lean into feelings of gratitude instead. “Gratitude lets me focus on the little things I get to do every day, despite not knowing what the future holds.”

Andrew Painter Could Still Make MLB Debut This Season

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  • Phillies GM Dave Dombrowski told reporters, including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, that he still expects top prospect Andrew Painter to make his big league debut at some point this season. Painter was diagnosed with a UCL sprain earlier this spring which took him out of the fifth starter competition in Philadelphia, but the young right-hander has not been recommended for Tommy John surgery, instead attempting to rehab the injury after a four week shutdown. Should the rehab route prove successful, it’s no surprise that Painter would be in the mix to make his debut later this season, as he proved himself to be clearly MLB-ready with a dominant spring prior to the sprain.

Phillies Interested In Right-Handed Hitting Outfielders

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With just over a week until Opening Day, the bench group in Philadelphia is beginning to come into focus. As discussed by The Athletic’s Matt Gelb, the Phillies view each of backup catcher Garrett Stubbs, and utilitymen Edmundo Sosa and Josh Harrison as locks to make the roster. With Bryce Harper slated to begin the season on the injured list as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery, the Phillies have no set, everyday DH, leaving them with effectively five seats on the bench. With three locked in, two spots remain available for the Phillies to fill.

Gelb notes that the Phillies are interested in acquiring a right-handed fourth outfielder to complement the starting outfield trio of Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, and Nick Castellanos, but there are plenty of internal candidates also capable of securing one of the remaining bench jobs: utilitymen Scott Kingery, Dalton Guthrie, and Kody Clemens are joined by outfielder Jake Cave and first baseman Darick Hall in the hunt for a spot on the Philadelphia bench to open the season.

All five players have relatively secure spots in the organization headed into the season: Guthrie, Clemens, Cave, and Hall all are on the 40-man roster with minor league options remaining, while Kingery is not on the 40-man roster but is set to remain in the organization during the final year of his ill-fated six-year, $24MM extension he signed with the Phillies ahead of the 2018 season, before he had taken a big league at-bat. Without fear of losing any of these players by not dedicating an Opening Day roster spot to them, the Phillies have plenty of flexibility in making their final decisions about which players to roster.

Looking at external options, the best right-handed fourth outfield option remaining unsigned is likely Albert Almora. Almora played in 64 games for the Reds in 2022 with solid defense at each of the three outfield spots, but struggled at the plate as he slashed just .223/.282/.349 in 235 plate appearances, good for just a 71 wRC+. That seems to be about in line with what a club should expect from Almora should they sign him for this season, given his career 80 wRC+ drops to 71 when looking at his performance since the start of the 2018 season.

While the pickings are currently slim on the free agent market, it remains possible that a player squeezed off their current club’s roster could be made available either by trade or by opting-out of their current minor-league pact and returning to the free agent market. Jake Marisnick, Monte Harrison, and Michael Hermosillo are among the numerous players around the league for whom that is a possibility as Spring Training draws toward a conclusion.

If the Philies are unable to find anyone outside of the organization to their liking, both Kingery and Guthrie are right-handed hitters with experience at all three outfield spots. Kingery has had a better spring to this point that Guthrie, as the former has raked to a .394/.459/.515 line this spring that far outshines Guthrie’s .250/.273/.375 line. With that being said, Guthrie has advantages of his own. As previously mentioned, he already has a 40-man roster spot, while Kingery would require a corresponding move to roster. Additionally, Guthrie raked in his first taste of big league action last season, posting a whopping 184 wRC+ in his fourteen-game cup of coffee that earned him a spot on the postseason roster during Philadelphia’s NL championship run.

It’s also worth noting that Kingery has largely struggled in his major league opportunities to this point in his career, with his already mediocre 73 wRC+ in 325 career games mostly buoyed by a 2019 season where he was league average at the plate (100 wRC+) in 500 plate appearances. Since then, Kingery has posted a brutal wRC+ of just 21, indicating he’s been 79% worse than league average at the plate in 52 big league games since the start of the 2020 season. Given his long-lasting struggles, it would be understandable if the Phillies were hesitant to trust his torrid spring.

Assuming the Phillies would like another left-handed bat on the bench in addition to Stubbs, the spot that doesn’t go to one of Kingery, Guthrie, or an external fourth outfielder would likely go to one of Hall, Clemens, or Cave. All three have raked in Grapefruit League play, but one separator could be that Clemens has by far the most positional flexibility of the three. Cave is confined to the outfield while Hall is limited to first base and the DH slot while Clemens has experience in the four corner spots and at second base, though Gelb indicates that the Phillies don’t see Clemens as a factor at the keystone.

That being said, Cave has the advantage of a long track record of major league experience, with 335 big league games under his belt to this point and a career wRC+ of 92, though he posted just an 81 in 54 games with the Twins last year. While the most defensively limited of the three options, Hall is the most interesting bat of the three, as he posted a 119 wRC+ in 101 Triple-A games last year before carrying that success into the big leagues, where he slashed .250/.282/.550 with a wRC+ of 120. For a team set to start the season without Harper, it’s possible that Hall’s lefty power might be too attractive to pass up, even with his defensive limitations.

While pairing Hall with one of Guthrie or Kingery certainly seems like an attractive option for the Phillies right now, an external addition or injury could certainly change that over the course of the next week or so, to say nothing of the reality that all five internal options seem sure to get major league opportunities at some point this year as the roster churns through the regular season.

Phillies Notes: Strahm, Suarez, Plassmeyer

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The Phillies are stretching lefty Matt Strahm out to handle a multi-inning relief option, tweets Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Manager Rob Thomson said this week that the organization’s goal is for Strahm to be built up to the point that he can handle three-inning stints by the end of camp, Lauber notes. He’s slated to start one of the Phillies’ split-squad games today.

Stretching Strahm out is of particular note given the lefty’s previous work as a starter, his five-pitch repertoire, and his previously vocal stance about wanting to return to that role at some point in his career. As The Athletic’s Matt Gelb further writes, Strahm is open to any and all roles with the Phils this season.

Strahm’s career 3.11 ERA as a reliever trounces his shaky 5.08 mark as a starter, though that’s come in a sample of just 25 starts spread across four seasons. Whether he emerges as a legitimate rotation option for the Phillies at some point over the course of his current two-year, $15MM deal will likely depend greatly on the health of the team’s other options. With that in mind, it’s notable that the move to stretch Strahm out comes in conjunction with Andrew Painter’s month-long shutdown due to a UCL sprain and Ranger Suarez’s delay due to forearm tightness.

Thomson told reporters yesterday that Suarez is back on a throwing program and feeling good (Twitter link via Gelb), but he won’t be fully built up by the time the season gets underway. The Phils aren’t planning to place Suarez on the injured list to begin the season, however. As such, it seems likely his per-start workload would be capped for at least his first few turns through the rotation. Having Strahm stretched out to three or more innings would allow the Phillies to piggyback the two if they choose to go that route, and there’s obvious benefit in having Strahm stretched out in the event that the Philadelphia rotation sustains an injury of note.

For now, the likely plan in the event of another injury in the rotation would be to give 26-year-old southpaw Michael Plassmeyer a chance, Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia writes. The 2018 fourth-rounder, acquired in the trade that sent catcher Austin Wynns to the Giants, made his MLB debut with the Phils last season (three runs in 7 1/3 innings) and posted a 2.41 ERA in 16 starts with their Triple-A affiliate following that swap. Plassmeyer has tossed seven scoreless frames this spring, though he’s issued six walks and punched out just four hitters in that time.

As it stands, the Phillies still project to have one of the NL’s stronger rotations. Each of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker and Bailey Falter have been healthy this spring, and it seems the forearm tightness that sent Suarez home from the World Baseball Classic has proven to be minor in nature.

Beyond Strahm and Plassmeyer, top prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry will open the season in the upper minors, but both have limited innings above A-ball to this point in their young career (23 for Abel, 40 2/3 for McGarry). Lefty Cristopher Sanchez and righty Nick Nelson are both on the 40-man roster but were both shut down earlier this week due to triceps and hamstring injuries, respectively. The Phils did receive one positive injury update yesterday, as backup catcher Garrett Stubbs told Lauber and others that he’s dealing with only a minor knee sprain and expects to be ready for Opening Day.

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

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The National League champions reloaded for another run at the World Series, including a $300MM splurge on Trea Turner.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $64.77M
Total spending: $399MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Months before the end of the regular season and before the Phillies made their Cinderella run through the playoffs, there was already speculation that the club would be targeting a major upgrade at shortstop.  Philadelphia at least checked in each of the “big four” free agent shortstops (Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson), and there was at least some early indication that Xander Bogaerts might be atop the team’s list due to his past Red Sox history with Phils president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

As The Athletic’s Matt Gelb outlined in a piece in early December, Turner quickly emerged as the Phillies’ top priority, and the feeling seemed mutual on shortstop’s end.  Turner was already friendly with Bryce Harper and hitting coach Kevin Long from their days together with the Nationals, and Philadelphia was an ideal geographical choice since the Turner family was reportedly prioritizing a move to the East Coast.  Turner liked the fit enough that he reportedly turned down a $342MM offer from the Padres to join the Phillies.

Of course, it’s not like Turner exactly took a bargain rate.  He became one of just six players to hit the $300MM threshold on a free-agent deal, and the Phillies’ second such signing (after Harper) within the last four years.  There are plenty of similarities between the Harper and Turner contracts, including the fact that the Phillies spread out their money over the 13-year and 11-year spans of the respective deals in order to minimize the luxury tax hit as best as possible.

The Phillies had never exceeded the Competitive Balance Tax prior to the 2022 season, yet managing partner John Middleton has never been shy about spending during his seven-plus years in control of the franchise.  That willingness to spend has now manifested into a deeper plunge into tax territory, as the Phillies’ current tax bill is projected at roughly $259.8MM — well over the second CBT penalty tier of $253MM.  This means that the Phillies will pay a heavier tax rate both for this higher payroll, as for exceeding the CBT for two consecutive seasons.  Exceeding the CBT line in 2022 also put extra consequences on the Turner signing, as because Turner rejected the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, the Phillies had to give up $1MM in international bonus money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft.

That said, it’s a price ownership seem happy to pay now that the Phillies are finally back in contention.  2022 marked the Phils’ first postseason appearance since the 2011 season, and with an NL pennant now flying, the organization is eager to take the next step and lock down a World Series.  Dombrowski’s front office will get plenty of opportunity to achieve this goal, as ownership extended Dombrowski through the 2027 season, and GM Sam Fuld and assistants GMs Jorge Velandia and Ned Rice all received extensions running through the 2025 season.

It will still be some time before we see the ideal version of this Phillies team, since Harper will be out until roughly the All-Star break as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.  Even then, the Phils plan to utilize Harper only as a DH during the initial days or weeks of his return, with an eye towards possibly getting him back to his regular right-field duty by later in the season.  While it’s an open question as to how any player will bounce back after a Tommy John procedure, it’s probably a good sign that Harper still posted superstar numbers in 2022 despite playing through a torn UCL for most of the season.  Even a B or B+ version of Harper is still a boost to any lineup, so the Phillies will be eager to have him back as soon as possible.

Turner broadly fills the superstar gap in Harper’s absence, and he’ll add even more speed to an aggressive Philadelphia squad that finished fifth in MLB in stolen bases last year.  The metrics have always been a little split on Turner from a defensive perspective, but between both his bat and his glove, there is no doubt he is a gigantic upgrade for the Phils at the shortstop position.  Neither Didi Gregorius or Bryson Stott contributed much at shortstop over the course of the regular season, though Stott seemed to adjust later in his rookie season and at least managed to hold the fort as the regular starter throughout the playoffs.

Philadelphia saw enough in Stott that the former first-rounder is now being tasked with regular second base work, as the Phils let Jean Segura go to free agency (and a deal with the Marlins) after his $17MM club option was declined.  While the Phillies would love to see Stott establish himself as a Major League regular, a win-now team can’t afford to give too much rope to a young player, which is why veteran Josh Harrison was signed to a one-year contract.  Harrison and in-house utilityman Edmundo Sosa will provide depth at multiple positions, yet second base might be their first stop on the diamond if Stott requires a platoon partner or a timeshare.

Sticking with the Phillies’ bench situation, catchers Aramis Garcia and John Hicks were signed to minor league deals to add some more options behind the plate.  These signings might prove valuable considering that Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchan are dealing with injury problems, leaving Philadelphia perhaps looking for a new secondary backstop to support All-Star J.T. Realmuto.

Donny Sands was formerly part of this catching mix, but Sands was dealt along with Matt Vierling and Nick Maton in a trade that shook up the Philadelphia bench.  The Phils sent the trio to Detroit in exchange for reliever Gregory Soto and Kody Clemens, and while the versatile Clemens will help fill the void left by Vierling and Maton, Soto was the prize of the trade.

Soto is a two-time All-Star who is controlled through the 2025 season.  There is plenty of volatility in Soto’s game, as he has an ungainly 13.1% walk rate over his career, and his hard-contact and strikeout numbers also dipped considerably from 2021 to 2022.  However, while the Tigers utilized Soto as their closer, the Phillies might use Soto only as one high-leverage option among many.  For now, manager Rob Thomson said his team will take a committee approach to the ninth inning, with newcomers Soto, Craig Kimbrel, and Matt Strahm vying for save chances alongside incumbents Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado.

Though the relief corps stayed steady for much of the postseason run, Philadelphia’s bullpen has long been a source of inconsistency, and more reinforcement was needed this winter since David Robertson, Brad Hand, and the injured Corey Knebel were all headed into free agency.  (Sam Coonrod was also designated for assignment and then claimed off waivers by the Mets.)  Dombrowski’s response was to make a plethora of lower-level waiver claims and minor league signings of relief options, and that depth was augmented by the higher-profile additions of Soto, Kimbrel, and Strahm.

Investing $25MM of free agent dollars into Kimbrel and Strahm won’t break the bank for a free-spending team like Philadelphia.  However, both pitchers carry their share of question marks, since Kimbrel lost the closer’s job in Los Angeles last season and the Dodgers didn’t even include the veteran righty on their roster for the NLDS.  Strahm has been solid enough throughout his seven MLB seasons that the Phillies were comfortable in betting on his ceiling, yet there was some sense that the Phils overpaid for his services.  (As per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Strahm contract ended up creating a bit of a stalemate amongst other free agent southpaw relievers, who felt they should be matching or exceeding Strahm in total salary or average annual value.)

Some free-agent vacancies also needed to be filled in the rotation, as Zach Eflin, Kyle Gibson, and Noah Syndergaard all hit the open market and signed with other clubs.  Prior to the Turner signing, there was some speculation that Philadelphia might target an available starter like Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodon as a big free-agent splash, though the team ended up aiming to a slightly lower tier by showing interest in Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker.  With both pitchers reportedly receiving similar offers from the Phils, Walker took the deal, giving Philadelphia a solid No. 3 starter behind aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.

Walker bounced back from several injury-plagued seasons to become a valuable member of the Mets’ rotation, posting a 3.98 ERA over 316 1/3 innings with New York in 2021-22.  The $72MM contract exceeded projections of what Walker might land on the open market, yet that price reflected the elevated cost of pitching this winter, and again underlined how the Phillies are willing to pay top dollar if they like a player.  Since the Phils didn’t want to sign another player who rejected a qualifying offer, the fact that Walker and Taillon didn’t have QOs attached to their services also likely helped their markets.

Walker’s deal has already grown in importance given that the Phillies have run into some injury concerns in Spring Training.  Ranger Suarez is dealing with some forearm tightness that isn’t thought to be too serious, but creates fresh doubt over Suarez’s readiness for the Opening Day roster.  Depth starters Cristopher Sanchez and Nick Nelson have also been shut down with injuries, and in perhaps the most concerning development, star prospect Andrew Painter has been sidelined with a right UCL sprain.  It will be close to four weeks before the highly-touted young righty will start lightly throwing, so between that timeline and Painter’s lack of Triple-A experience, his anticipated MLB debut might now be held off until closer to midseason at best.

Having Nola, Wheeler, and Walker atop a rotation is a pretty nice stopgap against depth questions, and the Phillies have another interesting young arm in Bailey Falter now set for at least a fifth starter role.  Michael Plassmeyer probably leads the pack of potential starting candidates if the Phillies do need a replacement for Suarez, as it seems unlikely that the Phils would make a bold promotion of Mick Abel by jumping the top prospect from Double-A to the big leagues.

In bigger-picture rotation news, it seems possible that Nola and the Phillies might yet agree to a contract extension, as the two sides were exchanging figures last month.  Nola is scheduled for free agency after the 2023 season, so locking up the righty early would establish Nola, Walker, Suarez, and the younger Falter/Painter/Abel trio as the future of the Phiadelphia pitching staff (and give the team some leverage in deciding what to do when Wheeler’s contract is up after the 2024 campaign).  The Phillies have already been busy on the extension front in committing to Dominguez and Alvarado on multi-year deals, though naturally a Nola contract will be significantly more expensive.

For all of Philadelphia’s roster moves this offseason, an argument can be made that the club spent quite a bit just to fill holes and maintain their level of productivity from 2022.  As noted, this new version of the Phillies won’t be entirely complete until Harper is healthy and joining his old friend Turner in the lineup, so treading water in the competitive NL East is a justifiable strategy until the Phillies have a better sense of what they’ll be getting from Harper.  Plus, while no trade deadline acquisition would be as beneficial as a healthy Bryce Harper, it is safe to assume that Dombrowski is prepared to be again be aggressive at the deadline.

How would you grade the Phillies’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

Phillies Dealing With Injuries To Pitching And Catching Depth

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The Phillies announced a batch of injuries to reporters, including Matt Gelb of The Athletic (Twitter links). Left-hander Cristopher Sánchez and right-hander Nick Nelson have both been shut down, due to triceps soreness and a moderate hamstring injury, respectively. Catcher Garrett Stubbs is headed for an MRI on his sore right knee while fellow backstop Rafael Marchán hasn’t played in eight days and can’t currently hit due to a bruised right hamate.

Sánchez, 26, has made just 22 major league appearances thus far in his career, but he notched a strong 3.14 ERA in Triple-A last year. He struck out 24.4% of batters faced at that level, walked just 8.4% and got grounders at a very strong 62% clip.

As of a few weeks ago, he wasn’t expected to be a key piece of the club’s rotation, but some recent developments have thinned out the club’s depth in that department. Andrew Painter has been shut down with a UCL sprain while Ranger Suárez has been dealing with some forearm tightness. Painter will be shut down for four weeks, taking him out of consideration for the Opening Day rotation. Suárez, meanwhile, has been throwing but it’s still unclear if he’ll be ready for the start of the season. Gelb also relays that the club is encouraged by his progress but his overall timelines are still murky.

The club should still have a strong front of their rotation, with Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Taijuan Walker taking three spots. Bailey Falter previously seemed like he would have to compete with Painter for a spot but that’s no longer the case, likely pushing him into the mix. The fifth spot could go to Suárez if he’s healthy enough to take it. If not, Sánchez would have been in the mix to jump in there but that’s probably not on the table any longer. The club hasn’t provided a timeline on his expected absence but the fact that he has been shut down from throwing with just two weeks until Opening Day isn’t encouraging.

If none of Painter, Suárez or Sánchez are available, the Phils have Michael Plassmeyer and James McArthur on their 40-man roster. Arthur has yet to reach Triple-A and only made 13 Double-A starts last year due to injury. Plassmeyer has two big league appearances and tossed 128 1/3 Triple-A innings last year with a 4.21 ERA.

In the case of Nelson, he was going to be in the mix for a job in the club’s bullpen. He tossed 68 2/3 innings for the club last year with a 4.85 ERA, 22.5% strikeout rate, 11.8% walk rate and 39.8% ground ball rate. It doesn’t seem as though his injury is too severe, though he’s been shut down for the moment. As a reliever, he’ll have an easier time getting back into game shape than a starter like Sánchez.

In terms of the catching situation, those two ailments are noteworthy for the club since they have just three backstops on their 40-man roster. J.T. Realmuto has a lock on the starting job but the Phils will need a backup. Stubbs and Marchan would be the likely candidates for such a job, since they are the other two on the roster, but they are both question marks now due to these setbacks.

Stubbs, 30 in May, was acquired from the Astros prior to the 2022 campaign and ended up having a nice season as Realmuto’s backup. He got into 50 games and hit .264/.350/.462 for a wRC+ of 128. He was recently participating in the World Baseball Classic for Team Israel but departed when this knee issue popped up. Marchan, 24, only has 23 games of big league experience and was likely ticketed for more time in the minors behind Realmuto and Stubbs.

At this point, the path forward for both players is still unclear but there are concerns in both cases. Stubbs’ injury is significant enough to require an MRI while Marchan has already been out of action for over a week. Even if he suddenly heals up, he’ll need some time to get back into game shape. If the Phils eventually need someone else to step up and take on the backup job, they have a few catchers in camp as non-roster invitees, including Aramis Garcia and John Hicks.

Injury Notes: Song, Nevin, Rosenthal, Sadler

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Phillies Rule 5 pick Noah Song has been shut down due to back tightness, per Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer. He’s had an MRI and will be reevaluated next week, but it appears he won’t be ready to start the season.

Song, 25, is an interesting case, given he’s spent the past three years in the navy after being drafted by the Red Sox in the fourth round of the 2019 draft. He’s also not been fully discharged, only placed in active reserve, which means he’ll be able to play baseball. It does mean he’ll still have navy commitments though, with an earlier report stating he’s effectively on part-time duty, which still requires one weekend per month and two full weeks each year. It’s not clear how that would’ve played out over the season.

In any case, Song was looking to get back up to speed quickly after three years out. As a Rule 5 draftee, the Phillies would have to keep him on the active roster for the entire season, or place him on waivers and send him back to the Red Sox if he clears. The injury does change things somewhat, as should Song open the season on the injured list the Phillies can still send him on a rehab stint to the minors for up to 30 days. He still can’t be optioned to the minors, but the Phillies would just need to ensure he spends at minimum 90 days on the active roster this season.

Here’s some other injury notes from around the game:

  • Evan Woodbery of MLive relays that Tyler Nevin’s MRI on his oblique showed a Grade 1 strain. The Tigers said yesterday that Nevin’s strain was “mild”, but offered no other details on when he might be available. As Woodbery says, MLB’s Health and Injury Tracking System says hitters typically take 27 days to recover from a Grade 1 strain. That’s not a concrete number, but it would appear to put Nevin in doubt for Opening Day. Nevin, acquired from the Orioles this winter, was competing for a bench spot on the Tigers roster this year. The 25-year-old hit .197/.299/.261 with two home runs across 184 plate appearances for Baltimore last year.
  • Sticking with the Tigers, and right-hander Trevor Rosenthal threw a bullpen yesterday and felt great, Woodbery reports. He’ll throw a live bullpen on Tuesday, with the hope being that he’ll be ready to step into a live game after that. Rosenthal, signed to a minor league deal by the Tigers this winter, hasn’t appeared in the big leagues for the past two seasons due to a range of injuries, including thoracic outlet syndrome, hip labrum surgery and a recurring hamstring injury. While it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Rosenthal need a little longer than Opening Day to be ready, the former All Star looks a good chance to get some opportunities in Detroit’s bullpen this year.
  • The Mariners won’t have right-hander Casey Sadler up to speed by Opening Day, but he is making progress in his return from rotator cuff and labrum surgery, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. Sadler missed the entire 2022 season, but faced hitters for the first time yesterday in a live batting practice session at Seattle’s spring training complex. Sadler, who was designated for assignment this winter but re-signed with the team on a minor league deal, put in easily his best season in 2021, working to a 0.67 ERA over 40 1/3 innings. It’s unclear what’s next for the former 25th round pick, but he’ll continue to work his way back with a view to regaining his spot in Seattle’s bullpen sometime this season.

Andrew Painter Diagnosed With UCL Sprain; Ranger Suarez Dealing With Forearm Tightness

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Phillies top prospect Andrew Painter, who underwent imaging on his elbow over the weekend after reporting discomfort, has been diagnosed with a “right proximal ulnar collateral ligament sprain,” per the team. He sought a second opinion from surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who confirmed the diagnosis. Both the Phillies medical staff and Dr. ElAttrache recommended a four-week shutdown from throwing, after which Painter will begin a “light tossing progression.”

On the one hand, any injury to a pitcher’s UCL is a brutal and ominous blow. The ulnar collateral ligament is the ligament that is replaced during Tommy John surgery, and a sprain indicates some degree of stretching and/or tearing, by definition. That said, surgery for Painter shouldn’t be considered a foregone conclusion just yet. Dr. ElAttrache is one of the sport’s most prominent surgeons and orthopedic experts, and both he and the team apparently agree that the extent of the sprain is not severe enough to require immediate surgery. Time will tell whether Painter is able to avoid going under the knife, but it’s at least relatively good news that he hasn’t suffered a significant enough tear to wipe out his entire 2023 season just yet.

There are plenty of examples of pitchers avoiding surgery even after being diagnosed with UCL damage — Masahiro Tanaka, Ervin Santana, Anthony DeSclafani and Painter’s own teammate Aaron Nola among them. Of course, it’s only fair to point out that the majority of UCL sprains do ultimately lead to surgery, be it a Tommy John procedure (ligament replacement) or an internal brace of the current ligament, which comes with a shorter recovery time but is only possible for certain sprains (depending on the placement of the tear within the ligament and the severity of the tear).

For now, Painter’s shutdown takes him out of the running for the Phillies’ Opening Day rotation — a competition in which he was a prominent factor despite being just 19 years of age. Painter was the No. 13 overall pick in the 2021 draft and has soared through the Phillies’ system to the cusp of MLB readiness in less than two years’ time. He pitched across three levels in 2022 — Class-A, Class-A Advanced and Double-A — working to a combined 1.56 ERA with a massive 38.7% strikeout rate, a strong 6.2% walk rate and a tiny 0.43 HR/9 mark through 103 2/3 frames. Both Baseball America and MLB.com rank Painter as the game’s best pitching prospect and one of the top six overall prospects in the sport.

It’s not the only bad news on the Phillies’ rotation front, either. Left-hander Ranger Suarez, who’d been on Team Venezuela’s roster in the World Baseball Classic, has left the tournament and returned to the Phillies due to tightness in his left forearm, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki tweeted this morning. The Phillies believe the injury to be minor and merely exercising caution, but it’s still a notable situation that bears monitoring. He’ll undergo treatment with the club for the time being.

Suarez, 27, has solidified himself as a quality middle-of-the-rotation arm behind aces Nola and Zack Wheeler in recent seasons. He started 29 games for Philadelphia in 2022, pitching to a strong 3.65 ERA with a 19.5% strikeout rate, 8.8%  walk rate and 55.4% ground-ball rate.

With Painter sidelined, left-hander Bailey Falter becomes the clear front-runner for the fifth spot in the Philadelphia rotation behind Nola, Wheeler, Taijuan Walker and — assuming he’s healthy enough come Opening Day — Suarez. If Suarez and Painter are both sidelined to begin the season, the Phillies will likely choose among a group including Cristopher Sanchez, Michael Plassmeyer, James MacArthur and prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at each pitcher earlier in camp when profiling the Phillies’ fifth starter candidates.

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