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Phillies Sign Trea Turner To 11-Year Contract

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Dec. 8: The Phillies have formally announced the signing.

Dec. 5: The Phillies and shortstop Trea Turner have agreed on a contract that will see him make $300MM over 11 years with a full no-trade clause. Turner is represented by CAA Sports.

Trea Turner

Turner, who turns 30 in June, had a huge breakout campaign in 2016 and has been one of the best all-around players in the game since then. He’s stolen at least 27 bases in each full season in that time, twice getting over 40. His career batting average is over .300. Though his power wasn’t as impressive earlier in his career, he has continued pushing that portion of his game upwards, getting over 20 home runs in each of the past two seasons. Ultimate Zone Rating isn’t enamored of his glovework, though Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both view him as a quality fielder at shortstop for his career.

Turner reached free agency this winter as part of the so-called “big four,” which also consists of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. Based on his ability to help a team in all facets of his game, MLBTR predicted him to get a healthy contract of $268MM over eight years. That was the second highest guarantee predicted for the shortstops, behind the $288MM predicted for Correa. However, Correa is over a year younger than Turner and that prediction was spread over nine years instead of eight, meaning Turner was predicted for the highest average annual value at $33.5MM.

The actual contract that Turner has agreed to will take a much different shape than the prediction. His $300MM guarantee goes a bit beyond the $288MM mark, but with three extra years added on. That means Turner will turn 40 years old in the final season of the contract. This deal has some similarities to that of Bryce Harper, Turner’s former teammate with the Nationals who also signed with the Phillies. Harper set the record for the largest guarantee ever given to a free agent, a record he still holds, by signing for $330MM. However, he got to that guarantee over an extended 13-year stretch, an average annual value of just over $25MM per season that was well below other elite players who often get into the mid-30s. (Since that deal, the AAV record has been set at $43.33MM by Max Scherzer and tied earlier today by Justin Verlander. Among position players, Mike Trout has the record at $36MM.) Turner has followed Harper to Philadelphia and also agreed to a somewhat similar contract that prioritizes guarantee instead of salary, with Turner’s deal working out to just over $27MM per season. Turner will also be reunited with Kevin Long, who is the hitting coach in Philadelphia. Turner recently told Kiley McDaniel of ESPN that Long, who was Washington’s hitting coach from 2018 to 2021, that Long played a key role in his development as a hitter.

For the Phillies, they have been looking for a solution at shortstop for a long time now. They signed Didi Gregorius to take the job in 2020, and he performed well enough in that shortened campaign to return on a two-year deal. Unfortunately, that new contract went south real fast, with Gregorius eventually finishing 2021 with a line of .209/.270/.370 for a wRC+ of 69, indicating he was 31% below league average.

There was some speculation the Phils would pursue a shortstop last winter, as there was also a healthy class of free agents at that time, including Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Báez, Trevor Story and Marcus Semien. The club eventually shied away from that group, going into 2022 with Gregorius in the final year of his contract and prospect Bryson Stott knocking on the door of the majors. Gregorius had another awful season in 2022, getting released in August. Stott struggled for a few months but did eventually find his footing in an encouraging way. At the end of May, he was sitting on a miserable .123/.179/.151 batting line for a wRC+ of -8. Something seemed to click in June, as he hit .257/.318/.401 for a wRC+ of 102 from that point on, bringing his final line up to .234/.295/.358 and a wRC+ of 83.

The Phillies made it to the World Series in 2022, eventually falling to the Astros. They went into this winter motivated to upgrade for another run at the title in 2023 and were heavily connected to the “big four” shortstops. Having turned down on option on Jean Segura, they had an opening at second base and seemed intent on getting one of the big shortstop while kicking Stott over to the other side of the bag. Though they had some degree of interest in all four, it was reported last week that Turner was their top priority.

With this signing, the Phillies have made a splash that will have ripple effects around the rest of the league. The Dodgers, who acquired Turner from the Nats at the deadline in 2021, will now need to consider how to set their middle infield for next year. They are reportedly open to the idea of moving Gavin Lux from second base to short and sitting out the “big four” this winter. Whether that ultimates proves true or not will be revealed in time, but it doesn’t seem like Correa, Bogaerts or Swanson will have trouble finding their next employers. The Padres, Giants, Twins, Braves, Red Sox, Orioles and Mariners have been publicly linked to the shortstops in some way, with other clubs surely in the mix as well. Some of those teams were likely interested in Turner, though they will now have to proceed with one option off the board. Since Turner rejected a qualifying offer, the Dodgers will get an extra draft pick next year, with that pick pushed to after the fourth round on account of the Dodgers having paid the competitive balance tax. The Phils, also a CBT payor, will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks and see their international bonus pool reduced by $1MM.

Though the Phils will have Turner and Stott up the middle, the rest of the infield is somewhat in flux. Alec Bohm and Rhys Hoskins could stay at third and first base, respectively, as they did in 2022. However, with Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and potentially missing the first half of the year, it’s been speculated that Bohm could move over to first, with Hoskins taking more time in the designated hitter slot while Edmundo Sosa takes over at the hot corner. Regardless of how they line it up in the field, Turner seems poised to add a speedy element to a Philadelphia lineup that skewed to the power side. Turner can, to some degree, make up for some of the production lost by not having Harper around for the first part of the year, with Harper then hopefully joining the club for the second half and postseason. Turner hit .298/.343/.466 in 2022 for a wRC+ of 128, hitting 21 home runs and stealing 27 bases along the way.

Financially, the deal will extend the commitments for the club far into the future. Due to both Harper and Turner signing such lengthy deals, the Phils already have two big contracts on the books for the 2031 season, when they are both likely to be less productive than they are now. Turner will still be on the ledger through 2033. However, for the short term, the lower AAV gives the Phils more wiggle room in 2023 when they are looking to capitalize while their competitive window is wide open. Roster Resource estimates their 2023 payroll to be $206MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $218MM. The club paid the CBT in 2022 and seems poised to do so again, as they are now just about $15MM away from the $233MM threshold for 2023. Given that they are still looking to make upgrades to the pitching staff, they will likely end up on the other side of the line for a second straight year. The CBT features escalating penalties for repeat payors, meaning the Phils will pay a 30% tax on all spending over that line, with greater penalties if they go more than $20MM above.

It’s unsurprising that the Phils are being aggressive as they look get back to the World Series again in 2023. However, they will have no shortage of competition. Despite their strong postseason run, the club actually finished third in the division in 2022 behind the Mets and Braves. Those two clubs are still set up to be strong again going forward as Atlanta continues locking up all its young stars to lengthy extensions while the Mets are spending wildly in free agency. Turner’s deal is the second huge payout for the division today, as the Mets already signed Verlander to a two-year, $86.66MM deal to replace Jacob deGrom in their rotation. With many months still to go until Spring Training, the National League East is shaping up to be a fascinating battle again in 2023.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the two sides were in agreement while Kiley McDaniel of ESPN first reported the specifics structure of the deal and the no-trade clause.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

2022 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2022 Rule 5 draft will begin at 4pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in San Diego. This will be the first time since 2019 that the meetings will be held in person, as the 2020 edition was virtual because of the pandemic and the 2021 draft was cancelled entirely due to the lockout.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and were signed in 2018 or earlier, and any players 19 or older and signed in 2019 or earlier, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2022 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2023 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. The most recent edition in 2020 saw some notable names move around, such as Akil Baddoo going from the Twins to the Tigers while Garrett Whitlock went from the Yankees to the Red Sox.

This post will be updated with the results as they come in…

First Round

1. Nationals: RHP Thad Ward (Red Sox) (hat tip to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com)
2. A’s: 1B Ryan Noda (Dodgers)
3. Pirates: LHP Jose Hernandez (Dodgers)
4. Reds: OF Blake Sabol (Pirates); Reds later traded Sabol to Giants for cash or a player to be named later
5. Royals: pass
6. Tigers: RHP Mason Englert (Rangers)
7. Rangers: pass
8. Rockies: RHP Kevin Kelly (Guardians); Rockies later traded Kelly to Rays for cash considerations
9. Marlins: RHP Nic Enright (Guardians)
10. Angels: pass
11. D-backs: pass
12. Cubs: pass
13. Twins: pass
14. Red Sox: pass
15. White Sox: RHP Nick Avila (Giants)
16. Giants: pass
17. Orioles: RHP Andrew Politi (Red Sox)
18. Brewers: RHP Gus Varland (Dodgers)
19. Rays: pass
20. Phillies: RHP Noah Song (Red Sox)
21. Padres: LHP Jose Lopez (Rays)
22. Mariners: RHP Chris Clarke (Cubs)
23. Guardians: pass
24. Blue Jays: pass
25. Cardinals:RHP Wilking Rodriguez (Yankees)
26. Yankees: pass
27. Mets: RHP Zach Greene (Yankees)
27. Braves: pass
29. Astros: pass
30. Dodgers: pass

Second Round

  • All teams passed

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include Hector Perez from Baltimore to the Rays, Josh Palacios from the Nationals to the Pirates, Jared Oliva from the Pirates to the Angels, Nick Burdi from the Padres to the Cubs, Peter Solomon from the Pirates to the D-Backs and Jonathan Arauz from the Orioles to the Mets.

Phillies Close To Signing Matt Strahm

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Following on from their acquisition of free agent Taijuan Walker, the Phillies are closing in on a deal with left-handed reliever Matt Strahm, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports it’s a two-year, $15MM deal.

Strahm, 31, pitched the last year with the Red Sox on a one-year, $3MM deal. He tossed 44 2/3 innings of 3.83 ERA ball, striking out batters at a 26.9% clip against a 8.8% walk rate. Strahm had fairly even splits, limiting left-handed hitters to a .229/.333/.354 line while right-handers hit .221/.302/.353. It represented a solid platform year for Strahm, who pitched just 6 2/3 innings for the Padres a year prior.

Initially drafted in the 21st round of the 2012 draft by the Royals, Strahm found his way to the majors in 2016. That year he pitched effectively out of their bullpen, working to a 1.23 ERA across 22 innings while striking out a well above average 34.1% of batters. The strikeouts nosedived in 2017 to 24% and the results followed, as Strahm struggled to a 5.45 ERA in 34 2/3 innings that year before ultimately winding up on the IL for the rest of the season with a knee injury.

While injured, the Royals traded him with Esteury Ruiz and Travis Wood to the Padres at the 2017 deadline in a deal for Trevor Cahill, Ryan Buchter and Brandon Maurer. He wouldn’t pitch for them until 2018, when he threw 61 1/3 innings of 2.05 ERA ball. Strahm saw his strikeout rate tick back up while posting the best walk rate (8.6%) of his career at that point.

The Padres gave him a look as a starter in 2019, and he wound up making 16 starts for the team that year. Those didn’t go so well, as Strahm pitched to a 5.29 ERA. They returned him to the bullpen and Strahm quickly found his groove again, tossing 33 innings of 3.27 ERA relief work in the second half. He continued to provide value for the Padres out of the pen in the shortened 2020 season, working to a 2.61 ERA in 20 2/3 innings.

Injuries plagued his 2021 campaign, as Strahm first dealt with a right patellar tendon repair. He returned in August that year, but a few weeks found himself shut down for the rest of the season with knee inflammation. He went to free agency looking for opportunities to rebuild his value, and found that in the form of a one-year, $3MM deal with the Red Sox. The platform year in Boston went well enough that Strahm now finds himself with a multi-year contract with an AAV of $7.5MM.

Philadelphia’s bullpen was need of a bit of a rebuild after the departures of Corey Knebel, David Robertson and Brad Hand, and there’s every chance Strahm isn’t the only addition they make there. He’ll slot in with the likes of Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado, Andrew Bellatti and Connor Brogdon in the Phillies bullpen as things stand.

It’s been a busy few days for the Phillies, who’ve already added Walker as well as Trea Turner to their ranks. It takes their projected payroll to $230MM, just $3MM shy of the first luxury tax threshold.

Phillies To Sign Taijuan Walker

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One day after landing Trea Turner on a stunning 11-year contract, the Phillies have bolstered their rotation by agreeing to a four-year deal with free-agent right-hander Taijuan Walker, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (Twitter links). MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo adds that Walker, a client of the Boras Corporation, will be guaranteed $72MM on the deal.

Taijuan Walker

Walker, 30, steps into a deep and talented rotation headlined by co-aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. He’ll join lefty Ranger Suarez in the third and fourth spots of a rotation whose fifth starter has yet to be determined. Philadelphia president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said earlier this offseason that he aimed to sign one veteran starter and leave a starting job open for one of the Phillies’ many in-house options — a list that currently includes left-hander Bailey Falter and top prospects Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry.

The Phils could yet add some further depth, but based on Dombrowski’s earlier comments and the fact that they’ve committed a combined $372MM to Turner and Walker in the past day, it seems unlikely that another high-profile addition is in store. In the wake of agreeing to terms with Turner, Dombrowski voiced a desire to add a mid-rotation arm and to add a back-end reliever — ideally without signing a free agent who’d turned down a qualifying offer. The terms of Walker’s four-year deal have exceeded even the most bullish of expectations, but he nevertheless checks the former of those two boxes, ostensibly setting the stage for the Phillies to shift their sights to the bullpen market.

Walker, a once-elite pitching prospect who pitched just 14 innings from 2017-18 due to shoulder surgery and Tommy John surgery, has quickly shaken the “injury-prone” label once associated with his name. Since signing a one-year deal to return to the Mariners in advance of the 2020 season, the 6’4″, 235-pound righty has made a nearly full slate of starts: 11 games in the 60-game 2020 season followed by consecutive seasons of 29 starts with the Mets in 2021-22.

Along the way, Walker has pitched to a 3.80 ERA with a 21.5% strikeout rate, a 7.8% walk rate and 43.4% ground-ball rate in a total of 369 2/3 innings. While he’s hardly a flamethrower, Walker sits 93-94 mph with his four-seamer and complements that heater with a four-pitch mix of secondary offerings: splitter, sinker, slider and a more seldom-used curveball. He’s only averaged a bit more than 5 1/3 innings per start in recent years, but some of that could well be a function of the Mets preferring to keep him healthy.

While many teams are reluctant to allow starters to turn a lineup over three times, Walker’s third-time-through-the-order splits are actually fairly strong. Since 2020, when facing an opponent for the third time in a game, Walker has yielded only a .232/.303/.391 batting line. That translates to a .303 wOBA that’s tied with one of his new rotation-mates, Nola, for 37th among 132 starting pitchers in that three-year period.

Solid as Walker’s past few seasons have been, the $72MM guarantee he secured on his new contract remains a fairly eye-popping number. It’s been a bull market for starting pitchers thus far, to say the least, but an $18MM annual value over a four-year term represents a seismic step forward in the market for mid-rotation arms. Walker undoubtedly benefited from his relative youth and a lack of a qualifying offer, but guarantees of this size for a pitcher of this caliber, while not unprecedented, are quite rare. Moreover, while we’ve seen starters of this ilk land guarantees in this range in the past — the Royals signed Ian Kennedy for $70MM, and the Marlins inked Wei-Yin Chen for $80MM — they’ve typically been spread out over a five-year term. Precedent for an AAV of this magnitude, over a relatively long-term deal, for this caliber of pitcher is scarce.

None of that is a knock on Walker, who’s pitched well in his three years since returning from that pair of seasons lost to injury. And, if Walker can continue to pitch at a pace commensurate with his 2022 output in particular, he’ll end up justifying the deal. That said, he’s reached 150 innings only four times in his Major League career and only twice logged a sub-4.00 ERA in a 162-game campaign, so expecting a replica of his 2022 output — particularly in light of a shaky batted-ball profile — would be quite optimistic.

The Phillies, however, needed some stability with Kyle Gibson, Zach Eflin and Noah Syndergaard all reaching free agency, and the prices for arms this winter have been strong. Eflin, for instance, landed a $13.33MM AAV in a three-year deal with the low-budget Rays of all teams, and did so on the heels of a season in which he pitched just 75 2/3 innings. Gibson, who turned 35 in October and yielded a 5.05 ERA in 31 starts for the Phillies, still secured a $10MM guarantee on a one-year deal in Baltimore. The price of average-or-better innings — and the price for pitchers who can reliably provide those innings — looks to have increased in the early stages of the newly brokered 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement.

From a payroll vantage point, adding Walker will boost the Phillies to a projected $223.5MM in bottom-line payroll next year, per Roster Resource (assuming an even distribution of the salaries). Moreover, Walker’s $18MM AAV will push the Phillies into luxury-tax territory for what’ll now be a second straight season. They currently project at $235MM, just $2MM north of the $233MM barrier, but it seems fair to expect further additions will be on the horizon — in the bullpen at the very least. As a second-time offender, the Phils will pay a 30% overage on the first $20MM by which they exceed that $233MM line, and they’ll be on the hook for a 42.5% penalty for any overages between $20-40MM.

That seems to matter little to owner John Middleton, who just saw his Phillies fall to the World Series champion Astros in a competitive six-game affair. With Nola set to become a free agent next winter, the 2023 campaign could be the last time he and Wheeler comprise the dynamic one-two punch atop the Philadelphia rotation. Wheeler’s contract is up after the 2024 season, and J.T. Realmuto will turn 32 before Opening Day 2023. The time to win in Philadelphia is now, and in very on-brand fashion, their aggressive owner and similarly aggressive president of baseball operations are making high-priced, straightforward upgrades via the free-agent market to bolster the franchise’s hopes while this elite core is still together and still in its prime.

Padres Offered Trea Turner $342MM Deal

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Dec. 6, 12:35pm: The Padres offered Turner a guarantee of $342MM, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

11:51am: The Padres’ offer to Turner was not only higher than the offer he accepted from Philadelphia but would have made Turner the highest-paid infielder in baseball, topping Francisco Lindor’s $341MM deal with the Mets, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney. The exact length of the contract, potential deferrals, etc. aren’t known at this time, but it’s a nevertheless jarring follow-up revelation in the wake of the Phillies’ deal with Turner. Lindor’s contract is currently the third-largest guarantee in Major League history.

While Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported in the aftermath of the Padres’ failed bid that the team is no longer pursuing shortstops, Olney writes that the Padres have at least been in touch with Bogaerts, echoing a similar sentiment reported last night by Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic.

More broadly, Olney reports that the Padres are “very serious about trying to do all they can” to win the franchise’s first World Series, which raises the question as to whether San Diego might emerge as a legitimate entrant in the bidding for Aaron Judge, Carlos Rodon and other top remaining free agents.

Dec. 5: The Phillies made the biggest splash of the offseason to date, agreeing to terms on an 11-year deal with Trea Turner this afternoon. Once finalized, it’ll make the two-time All-Star the 10th player in MLB history to land a contract worth at least $300MM.

Massive as the contract was, it apparently wasn’t the highest offer the shortstop had on the table. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports the Padres made an offer which topped the one Turner accepted from Philadelphia. Specifics of the proposal aren’t clear, but Gelb adds the gap was wide enough San Diego’s offer would’ve translated into more money even after adjusting for California’s higher state income tax rate than Pennsylvania’s.

In the months leading up to Turner’s free agency, there was a fair bit of speculation about whether geography would play a role in his decision. He’s a Florida native who went to college at North Carolina State. His wife Kristen is from New Jersey. Turner reportedly expressed a desire to remain on the East Coast when the Nationals traded him to the Dodgers at the 2021 deadline, and while he downplayed geographic preferences in free agency, there seems to have been some truth behind the rumblings he could prefer heading back across the country. Turner also rejoins longtime Washington teammate Bryce Harper and hitting coach Kevin Long in Philadelphia.

On the one hand, losing out on a star player even after making the highest offer has to be a tough blow for San Diego. Yet it also illustrates the possibility for the franchise to continue pushing chips in as they aggressively seek to augment one of the game’s more talented rosters. One could argue shortstop is more of a luxury buy for the Friars anyhow, with Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth all on hand as middle infield options. Yet San Diego was willing to put forth one of the largest contracts in league history to try to add another star to the lineup.

San Diego has also been tied to Xander Bogaerts this offseason. That they were the high bidder on Turner doesn’t inherently mean they’ll top the market for Bogaerts instead, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they pivot in that direction now that their primary target is off the board. The Padres have exceeded the luxury tax threshold in each of the past two seasons, and they’d have to do so again to add any of the star free agent shortstops. Roster Resource estimates their CBT ledger around $3MM below the base tax threshold of $233MM, and signing Turner for an average annual value around the $27.3MM he received would’ve pushed them into the second tier of penalization. That’d have involved a 50% tax on the first $20MM — an extra $10MM — and further taxes from that point forward, but it was apparently a bill owner Peter Seidler was content to foot for another star. How or if they reallocate that money, either in a pursuit of Bogaerts or in more directly addressing areas of need like first base and the corner outfield, remains to be seen.

As for the Phils, they now anticipate looking to the pitching market after adding to an already loaded position player core. Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets the middle of the rotation and back of the bullpen are target areas for the Phils, who now aren’t far off the base luxury tax tier themselves. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters this evening the club is looking for a setup-type reliever who could mix and match with Seranthony Domínguez, Connor Brogdon and José Alvarado at the end of games (via Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer).

While the Phillies certainly aren’t taking their foot off the gas, Dombrowski downplayed the possibility of adding another player who’d rejected a qualifying offer. The Phils forfeited their second and fifth-highest picks in next year’s amateur draft plus $1MM in international signing bonus space for Turner, who’d turned down a QO with the Dodgers. They’d lose their third and sixth picks to sign another qualified free agent, and Dombrowski told Coffey and others the team doesn’t have “much appetite” for that kind of pick forfeiture.

Phillies To Focus On Mid-Rotation Starters, Back-End Relievers

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After agreeing to an 11-year, $300MM deal with shortstop Trea Turner, the Phillies will now focus on pitching, specifically mid-rotation starters and back-end relievers, according to Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. That’s unlikely to be through signing players with a qualifying offer attached, per a quote from president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski (relayed by Alex Coffey).

Dombrowski was asked about the likelihood of the Phillies signing two players with qualifying offers attached (they’ve already added one in Turner) and had this to say: “Probably not very much. One seems like a lot already. I don’t think we’d have much of an appetite for that. Not saying we never do it, but I would say there’s not much of an appetite.” 

Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Carlos Rodon are the remaining starters on the market that have a qualifying offer attached, but there’s plenty of other options out there. Philadelphia could pursue a reunion with Noah Syndergaard, or go after Jameson Taillon, who they’ve already been linked to. Other options could include Andrew Heaney, Taijuan Walker and Sean Manaea.

Philadelphia did see Zach Eflin sign with the Rays this off-season, Kyle Gibson head south to Baltimore and Syndergaard hit free agency, so it’s not surprising they’re looking to bolster their rotation as they look to return to the World Series in 2023. Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler will be back atop their rotation, with Ranger Suarez and probably Bailey Falter taking four of the spots. They do have some strong pitching prospects, including Andrew Painter and Mick Abel, working their way through the minors, but a solid, mid-rotation arm would slot in nicely to provide a bit of stability.

On the relief side of things, Corey Knebel, David Robertson and Brad Hand all departed, leaving the team a bit thin in the bullpen. Seranthony Dominguez, Andrew Bellatti and Jose Alvarado will all be back, but in a competitive NL East the Phillies will need a deep bullpen. They could bring back any of the trio of free agent relievers, or target relief arms such as Taylor Rogers or Andrew Chafin.

As far as payroll goes, the signing of Turner brings them closer to the $233MM luxury tax threshold. They’re currently sitting approximately $15MM under that mark with Turner on board, and it’d be challenging for them bring in a mid-rotation starter and strong relief options and stay within that mark.

Mets, Phillies, Cubs, Orioles Among Teams Pursuing Jameson Taillon

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Right-hander Jameson Taillon is one of the top names on the second tier of free-agent starting pitchers this winter, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that the Mets, Phillies, Cubs and Orioles are among the teams pursuing him. The Mets were already known to have interest in Taillon, as SNY’s Andy Martino recently reported that they made a strong effort to close a deal with the right-hander last week. Martino noted that with Justin Verlander atop the Mets’ priority list, the Mets might not be inclined to beat the market for Taillon.

Any of the four teams in today’s report would represent a perfectly logical landing spot for Taillon, who did not receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees and thus can be signed without the forfeiture of any draft picks or international bonus space. There’s some injury risk, to be sure, as Taillon has twice undergone Tommy John surgery and heavy contracts for two-time Tommy John patients are fairly rare.

That said, however, Taillon has reestablished himself as a quality mid-rotation hurler since his 2021 return from that second ligament replacement operation. In two seasons with the Yankees, the former No. 2 overall draft pick and top prospect pitched to a combined 4.08 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate and a strong 5.7% walk rate. The Yankees carefully monitored his workload in his first post-surgery season in ’21, as Taillon averaged just shy of five innings per start in his 29 trips to the mound. However, he averaged better than 5 2/3 innings per start in 2022, improved his ERA, lowered his walk rate and upped his ground-ball rate.

It’s hardly a surprise that the Mets have been fairly aggressive in their early efforts to land Taillon, as they recently lost Jacob deGrom to the Rangers and also saw each of Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Trevor Williams reach free agency this winter. At the moment, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson and Tylor Megill would comprise the top four spots in manager Buck Showalter’s rotation.

Even with a pronounced need in the rotation, the Mets are still projected by Roster Resource to carry a $234.7MM payroll — with a hearty $246.6MM of luxury obligations on hand at present. The Mets paid the luxury tax in 2022, so they’d be a second-time offender and thus face steeper penalties in 2023. They’re facing a 30% tax on the first $20MM over the tax line, plus 42% for the next $20MM, 75% for the next $20MM and 90% on any money spent thereafter.

The Phillies, too, are trending toward being a repeat luxury tax payor. Though they’re currently more than $40MM shy of the $233MM tax barrier, they’re known to be heavily interested in the high-end shortstops in free agency and are also looking into rotation help (hence the apparent Taillon interest). Taillon would slot into the rotation behind co-aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, joining Ranger Suarez and likely Bailey Falter to form the starting five in Philly. Prospects Andrew Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry loom in the upper minors.

From a financial perspective, it’s different story for the Cubs and Orioles, neither of whom are anywhere near the luxury tax. Both clubs, however, are looking to add some win-now pieces after rebuilding efforts of varying extent. The Cubs have Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks and Justin Steele locked into rotation spots in 2023, but the fourth and fifth spots remain more fluid. Keegan Thompson, Adrian Sampson and Hayden Wesneski are all candidates currently, but it seems likely Chicago will add at least one starting pitcher this winter.

Over in Baltimore, the O’s have already agreed to a one-year deal with Kyle Gibson, but Taillon would be more of a statement addition who’s viewed as a multi-year piece of the puzzle. Beyond Gibson, the O’s have Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, Austin Voth, Bruce Zimmermann, Spenser Watkins and Mike Baumann as options, to say nothing of top prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall. Baltimore also hopes to welcome lefty John Means back from Tommy John surgery later in the 2023 season.

There are surely plenty of other clubs who’ve held discussions with Taillon and his representatives at Excel Sports. That he’s one of the non-ace starters who’s still reasonably young — he’ll pitch all of next season at 31 — and won’t require any draft compensation could make interest sufficient enough to make him one of the first notable starters off the board. We ranked Taillon 14th on our annual Top 50 Free Agent list, predicting a four-year deal at $56MM

Phillies To Meet With Top Four Free Agent Shortstops

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The Phillies have meetings scheduled with all four of the top free agent shortstops, reports Jayson Stark of the Athletic. They’ll sit down with the representatives for each of Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts before the Winter Meetings kick off in earnest next Monday.

Philadelphia is widely seen as likely to land one member of that group, with reports suggesting they’re particularly dialed in on Turner. They’ve also been previously linked to Bogaerts, and it’s easy enough to see why they’d cover all bases in meeting with Correa and Swanson as well. The Phils have a need for middle infield help to pair with youngster Bryson Stott, and adding one of the top shortstops available is the most straightforward way to achieving that.

The expectation is that Correa and Turner will command the two largest contracts, with Boagerts and Swanson coming in behind them. Correa is the youngest of the group at age 28, while Turner has the most consistent offensive track record over the past couple seasons and is arguably the game’s top baserunner. Bogaerts is a similar caliber of hitter to Correa and Turner but has faced some questions about his ability to stick at shortstop into his mid-30’s. Swanson’s coming off a Gold Glove-winning season that he paired with arguably the best offensive showing of his career, but his general track record at the plate is behind the other three.

All four players are commanding ample interest and could top $150MM on the open market. The Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Twins, Braves, Red Sox and Orioles are among the teams that have been tied to at least one of the shortstops available. Turner, who’s reportedly the Phillies’ primary target, has been linked to a pair of the NL’s other top teams.

Ken Rosenthal wrote last night that the Padres were among the clubs with interest in Turner, and Rosenthal and Dennis Lin at the Athletic report tonight that San Diego has already met with Turner and his representatives twice this offseason. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune also characterizes the club’s interest in Turner as legitimate. Acee suggests that San Diego actually signing one of the top shortstops remains a long shot, considering the Friars already have Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth as middle infield options. However, the Union-Tribune writes that San Diego could put Cronenworth on the trade market to alleviate the logjam if they surprisingly landed one of the top shortstops. The Friars have also been tied to Bogaerts at multiple points this offseason.

The Dodgers have been connected to both Turner and Bogaerts on various occasions. Juan Toribio of MLB.com wrote yesterday that L.A. and Turner have spoken in recent weeks. Toribio suggests the Dodgers could be reluctant to meet Turner’s asking price, but it seems likely the sides will remain in contact as the Winter Meetings approach.

Continuing with the theme, the Twins have a sit-down scheduled with Correa in the next few days, tweets Darren Wolfson of SKOR North. Minnesota has maintained their interest in retaining Correa throughout the offseason, and they’ve reportedly floated him a number of long-term deals.

Phillies Claim Jake Cave

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The Phillies have claimed outfielder Jake Cave off waivers from the Orioles, per announcements from both teams. The addition of Cave brings Philadelphia’s 40-man roster to a total of 38 players.

Cave, who’ll turn 30 on Sunday, never suited up in a game for the Orioles. Baltimore had claimed him off waivers from the Twins earlier this season and apparently tried to sneak him through waivers themselves in hopes of keeping him without allocating a 40-man roster spot to the longtime Twins backup.

Cave has appeared in parts of five big league seasons, all coming with the Twins, who acquired him from the Yankees in a 2018 trade that sent Luis Gil to New York. Cave was an outstanding fourth outfielder for the Twins in 2018-19, appearing in 163 games, taking 537 plate appearances and batting .262/.329/.466 with 21 homers, 27 doubles and four triples.

In 2020, Cave’s production fell off, however, and he’s never regained his form. Over the past three seasons, he’s turned in a tepid .206/.252/.352 batting line while punching out in 32.4% of his plate appearances. As is so often the case, injuries are at least partly to blame for the downturn in production; Cave landed on the injured list with a fracture in his lower back in May of 2021 and missed multiple months as a result of the injury.

Cave was arbitration-eligible this offseason, but the Orioles proactively signed him to a split Major League contract for the 2023 season. That contract, which contains different rates of pay for time in the Majors versus time in Triple-A, was surely signed by the Orioles with an eye toward getting Cave through waivers and keeping him as a depth piece. The O’s opted for the same tactic with catcher Anthony Bemboom and had success with it, passing him through waivers mere weeks after agreeing to terms on a 2023 contract. It (clearly) did not work that way in the case of Cave.

The general idea behind such a move is seemingly to offer slightly larger rates of pay that both discourage other teams from claiming depth options the Orioles value and hope to stash in the upper minors and to also encourage those players to accept outright assignments. Both Bemboom and Cave have previously been outrighted and thus are thus able to refuse outright assignments, but the larger rates of pay on the split deal serve as incentive to instead accept the outright. (Since neither player has five years of Major League service, refusing the outright assignment in favor of free agency would mean forfeiting any money owed to them on that split deal, and a new contract with a new team would likely come at a lower rate.)

Instead, for Cave, things will work out even better, as he’ll land on a team that perhaps has greater designs on carrying him on its MLB roster. He’s capable of playing all three outfield spots, has some power and will give the team a potential late-game defensive option in lieu of sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos when both are in the lineup and starting in the outfield corners. It’s possible the Phillies will try to pass Cave through waivers themselves or designate him for assignment if they acquire someone they deem to be a better option as a backup outfielder, but for now, Cave appears likely to occupy a spot on manager Rob Thomson’s bench in 2023.

Rays To Sign Zach Eflin To Three-Year Deal

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The Rays are dipping into the free agent pitching market, agreeing to terms with right-hander Zach Eflin on a three-year deal. It’s reportedly a $40MM guarantee for the O’Connell Sports Management client. Eflin will make $11MM in each of the next two seasons, followed by an $18MM salary in 2025. The deal is pending a physical.

Eflin had spent his entire big league career with the Phillies. Originally drafted by the Padres, the Orlando native was dealt to the Dodgers and Phils during his time as a minor leaguer. He reached the majors by the middle of the 2016 campaign, bouncing on and off the MLB roster for the first couple seasons. Eflin struggled during his early big league looks, but he’d settled in as a capable mid-rotation arm by 2018.

That season, he made 24 starts and worked to a 4.36 ERA across 128 innings. That kicked off a remarkably consistent stretch of results. In each of the five seasons between 2018-22, Eflin posted an ERA between 3.97 and 4.36. Aside from a spike in strikeouts during the abbreviated 2020 season, he achieved those 3rd/4th starter results in a similar manner every year. He’s proven an excellent strike-thrower who misses bats at a slightly below-average level but keeps the ball on the ground at a solid clip.

Between 2019-21, Eflin worked to a 4.12 ERA with a slightly below-average 21.4% strikeout rate but a stellar 5.7% walk percentage. He’d been on a similar path to begin this season, posting a 4.37 ERA with a 19.6% strikeout percentage and a 5.3% walk rate through his first 13 starts. At the end of June, he landed on the injured list with a right knee contusion. That cost him over two months. By the time he was ready for reinstatement in early September, the Phils had limited time to build him back to a starter’s workload before year’s end. They expedited his return to the majors by plugging him in short relief. Eflin made seven appearances out of the bullpen during the regular season, then tossed 10 2/3 frames over 10 outings as a high-leverage arm during the Phils’ run to a National League pennant.

While Eflin doesn’t miss many bats, his blend of stellar control and a solid five-pitch mix allowed him to find a fair amount of success in Philadelphia’s hitter-friendly home environment. Against right-handed hitters, he leans primarily on a sinker in the 92-93 MPH range, but he turned to a four-seam fastball more often against lefties. Eflin mixes in a cutter and curveball as his usual secondary offerings, occasionally deploying a slider against righties as well. He rarely turns to a changeup, however, and he’s had his share of issues with left-handed batters. Southpaws have hit Eflin at a .274/.335/.492 clip since the start of 2018, but he’s stifled same-handed hitters to a .255/.291/.398 mark.

Tampa Bay surely has designs on plugging him back into the rotation after a healthy offseason. He’ll step in behind Shane McClanahan and Tyler Glasnow in the pecking order, joining Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs in what looks to be the season-opening starting five. The Rays have one of the sport’s top pitching prospects, Taj Bradley, waiting in the wings after a great season in the upper minors. Shane Baz was expected to seize a rotation job himself, but he’s likely to miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September. Luis Patiño, Yonny Chirinos and Josh Fleming are on hand as rotation or multi-inning relief options for what should again be a strong Tampa Bay pitching staff.

If healthy, Eflin fits nicely into the middle of that group. At the same time, the Rays are placing a bet on a pitcher with a concerning injury history. The knee contusion that cost Eflin a couple months this year was the latest in a line of joint issues that have plagued him since before he began his career. He underwent a pair of surgeries to repair the patellar tendons in both his knees in the summer of 2016. At the time, Eflin acknowledged he’d battled chronic knee pain dating back to adolescence (link via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). He avoided any worrisome injuries for the next few seasons, but he went back under the knife in September 2021 to again repair the patellar tendon in his right knee. That cut his year short, meaning he’s lost chunks of three of the past six seasons to knee issues. There’s real risk in investing in a pitcher who has only once topped 130 MLB innings in a season.

The Rays were willing to look past that to add a pitcher who’s typically effective when healthy. Eflin’s also one of the younger arms available in free agency. He won’t turn 29 until next April, and a pitcher with his age and statistical track record may well have found four years on the open market if not for injury concerns. Tampa Bay wasn’t the only team that valued Eflin in this range, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets the Red Sox had made him the same offer. Eflin elected to join the Rays instead, signing closer to home and avoiding state income tax.

With an $11MM salary for next season, Eflin becomes the highest-paid player on the Tampa Bay roster. He’ll lose that title in 2024, when Glasnow’s salary spikes to $25MM, but he’ll count for a significant portion of a Rays payroll that typically ranks among the league’s lowest. The Rays are now up to around $78MM in projected commitments for 2023, not far off their franchise-record $83MM mark from this past season. The overall $40MM guarantee represents the largest free agent investment in Rays history.

It also easily tops MLBTR’s pre-offseason projection of two years and $22MM for Eflin. The deal narrowly beats the three-year, $39MM guarantee Tyler Anderson received from the Angels last month. Anderson had rejected a qualifying offer and cost the Halos a draft choice. The Phils elected not to qualify Eflin. Philadelphia won’t receive any compensation for his departure, while the Rays won’t lose any picks to add him. To find Eflin’s replacement, Philadelphia can dip into a free agent rotation market that offers a number of options beyond the top trio of Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodón and Justin Verlander. Players like Chris Bassitt, Kodai Senga, Jameson Taillon, Nathan Eovaldi, Noah Syndergaard, Andrew Heaney, Taijuan Walker and Sean Manaea all remain on the market as strong candidates for multi-year deals.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Rays and Eflin had agreed to a three-year deal. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the guarantee at $40MM. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported the specific financial breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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