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Phillies Designate Sam Coonrod For Assignment

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The Phillies announced their signing of infielder Josh Harrison, making that deal official. To create room for him on the 40-man roster, right-hander Sam Coonrod has been designated for assignment.

Coonrod, 30, was a starting pitcher as a prospect in the Giants’ system when he lost most of his 2018 season to Tommy John surgery. Since then, he’s been working primarily as a reliever, with a blistering fastball but mixed results overall. With the Giants in 2019 and 2020, he made 51 appearances with a 5.74 ERA, 18.9% strikeout rate, 11.9% walk rate and 47.5% ground ball rate.

He was traded to the Phillies prior to the 2021 season and seemed to take a step forward that year. He tossed 42 1/3 innings for the Phils with a 4.04 ERA, striking out 25.9% of batters faced while walking just 8.1% and getting grounders at a 57.1% clip. He surely would have liked to build on that performance in 2022 but he was shut down in the spring due to a shoulder strain and wasn’t able to return to the club until mid-August. He made 12 appearances down the stretch but was torched for a 7.82 ERA in that small sample.

The Phillies will now have a week to trade Coonrod or pass him through waivers. Despite some inconsistency, it’s possible he would find interest from other clubs. His fastball has averaged 97-99 mph in the past few seasons, which he has occasionally used to good effect. He also still has one option year remaining, allowing a club to keep him in the minors as depth so long as they are willing to give him a 40-man roster spot.

Coonrod surpassed three years of service time last year and qualified for arbitration for the first time. He and the Phillies agreed to a salary of $775K for the upcoming season, just above the $720K league minimum. If he were to clear waivers, he would have the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency but might opt against it. Players with over three years of service time have that right but only players beyond the five-year mark can both reject an outright and retain their salary. If Coonrod were really motivated to try free agency, he’d have to be willing to leave that $775K on the table in order to do so.

Phillies Sign Josh Harrison

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The Phillies have signed utilityman Josh Harrison to a one-year, $2MM deal, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (Twitter link).  MSM Sports, Harrison’s agency, has also announced the news.

The versatile 35-year-old batted .256/.317/.370 with seven home runs and two stolen bases in 119 games last season for the White Sox while appearing defensively at second base, third base, shortstop, left field, and even a few mop-up relief pitching appearances. The big majority of Harrison’s playing time was at second base, which has been his primary position over 12 Major League seasons. He still drew above-average grades from Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average at the position (and at third base) during his time in Chicago last season.

Harrison has suited up for five different teams over those 12 seasons, though he was formerly a member of the Phillies organization without ever seeing any action on the field.  Philadelphia inked Harrison to a minor league deal during the 2019-20 offseason, but he was released just prior to the start of the COVID-shortened 2020 season.

With a guaranteed MLB deal in hand, Harrison can presumably be plugged onto the Opening Day roster in Philadelphia as an option off the bench, joining Edmundo Sosa and Dalton Guthrie as position-player depth. Bryson Stott is the projected starter at second base for the reigning NL champions and Alec Bohm has stated an impressive case that he can be the long-term answer at third.

Former starting second baseman Jean Segura is gone to the Marlins in free agency, so Harrison represents some veteran infield depth behind Stott and Bohm. Stott is the less-established of the two, and while he played better later in his rookie season and saw starting duties for the Phillies in the playoffs, Stott batted a modest .234/.295/.358 over 446 PA in the regular season.

Harrison’s right-handed bat could complement the left-handed hitting Kyle Schwarber for some left field playing time. Since the Phillies’ lineup won’t truly be whole until Bryce Harper makes his midseason return from Tommy John surgery, Harrison gives the team another experienced bat to utilize in the interim.

Harrison’s $2MM salary is modest by MLB standards, but it’s not without some implications for the Phillies. As a luxury tax payor for the second straight season, the Phils were on the hook for a  30% tax  for the first $20MM by which they exceed the $233MM tax threshold. Harrison actually bumps them into the second tier, per Roster Resource, landing them at $254.85MM. They’d previously been just below the $253MM cutoff point for tier two. Harrison will cost the club about $800K in taxes, and the Phillies will be taxed at a 42% rate for every dollar added to the payroll up until $273MM, at which point the tax hit would jump to 75%.

Phillies, Jesus Cruz Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies recently agreed to minor league deals with reliever Jesús Cruz and corner outfielder Dustin Peterson, according to their transactions log at MLB.com. It’s unclear if either will get a non-roster Spring Training invitation.

Cruz, 27, is a 6’1″ right-hander with eight MLB appearances to his name. Seven of those came last season for the division-rival Braves, as he worked 8 2/3 innings of low-leverage work. He allowed six runs (including a trio of homers) with four walks and six strikeouts before losing his 40-man roster spot at the beginning of August.

Things went better at the Triple-A level, where the Mexico native showed interesting swing-and-miss stuff. Cruz punched out an excellent 32.2% of batters faced in 28 outings with the Braves’ highest affiliate in Gwinnett. That came with a lofty 13.2% walk percentage, the continuation of longstanding control problems he’s shown throughout his career. Cruz has walked 13.4% of opponents in parts of five minor league seasons.

Erratic as his strike-throwing is, he’s shown the ability to miss bats at the upper levels of the minors. Cruz averaged just under 95 MPH with his heater and around 87 MPH on his slider during his limited MLB look in Atlanta. He’ll add a reasonably strong arm to the Phils’ bullpen depth chart, likely to open the season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. He still has a pair of minor league option years remaining, meaning Philadelphia could send him back and forth between MLB and the minors if he secures a 40-man roster spot.

Peterson is a former second-round pick of the Padres who has limited MLB time as a member of the Braves and Tigers. He played in 19 games between the two clubs from 2018-19, collecting 10 hits and two walks in 49 plate appearances. The 28-year-old has spent a decade in the minor leagues, hitting .261/.319/.364 in just under 3700 trips to the plate.

The right-handed hitter opened the 2022 campaign with the Brewers on a minor league pact. After just three games, Milwaukee traded him to Philadelphia. Peterson spent the rest of the season with the IronPigs, posting a .244/.318/.379 line with nine homers across 102 contests. He made a favorable enough impression on the organization to get another minor league opportunity and could play a similar depth role during the upcoming season.

Scott Rolen Elected Into Baseball Hall Of Fame

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The Hall of Fame announced this evening that third baseman Scott Rolen has been elected by the Baseball Writers Association of America. He is the only player inducted by the BBWAA in this year’s election cycle. He will be inducted alongside first baseman Fred McGriff, who was previously elected by the Era Committee.

Rolen received 76.3% of the vote, just above the 75% required for induction. A few players just under that line were Todd Helton at 72.2%, Billy Wagner at 68.1% and Andruw Jones at 58.1%. Here are the full results, per the BBWAA.

A native of Indiana, Rolen was selected by the Phillies in the second round of the 1993 draft. He made his way up to the majors and debuted in 1996 when he was just 21 years old. He hit at a below-average rate in that 37-game debut but he truly broke out the next year. In 1997, he hit 21 home runs and stole 16 bases en route to a batting line of .283/.377/.469. That production was 21% better than the league average hitter that year, as evidenced by his 121 wRC+. He was crowned the National League Rookie of the Year for that campaign.

Rolen would go on to contribute in similar fashion for the Phillies over the next few seasons. He hit between 25 and 34 homers in each season from 1998 to 2004 while also swiping at least eight bases in all but the last season of that stretch. His excellent third base defense started to be recognized during this period as well, as he won a Gold Glove award in 1998. That was the first of eight such awards he would eventually win.

That period included a trade to the Cardinals in 2002, a team for whom he would have some of his best seasons. The standout season of his career was 2004, where Rolen went deep 34 times and produced a batting line of .314/.409/.598. His wRC+ was 159 and his stellar defense led to him racking up 9.0 wins above replacement on the year, per the calculations at FanGraphs. Only Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre were able to best him in terms of fWAR that year. Bonds took home the National League Most Valuable Player award that year with Rolen in fourth place in the voting, also trailing Beltre and Albert Pujols.

In 2005, he played just 56 games before injuring his shoulder and eventually requiring season-ending surgery. He got back on track in 2006 with another strong season, hitting 22 home runs and producing at an above-average level. The Cards won the National League Central division and eventually went on to win the World Series over the Tigers. Rolen played one more season in St. Louis but was traded to the Blue Jays prior to the 2008 season. He spent a season and a half in Toronto before getting dealt to the Reds, where he played out the remainder of his career. Over 17 MLB seasons, he hit 316 home runs, scored 1,211 runs, drove in 1,287, and stole 118 bases. He made seven All-Star teams, won eight Gold Gloves, a Rookie of the Year award and a World Series.

In 2018, he appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time. He garnered 10.2% of the vote, well below the 75% threshold for admittance but well above the 5% minimum required to stay on the ballot. His vote share grew to 17.2%, 35.3%, 52.9% and 63.2% in the subsequent years, finally getting over the hump here in 2023. MLBTR congratulates him on his induction.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Phillies Sign Ben Bowden, Jeremy Walker, Mark Appel To Minor League Deals

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The Phillies announced a number of non-roster invitations to big league camp this morning. While most of that group was either already in the system or had previously been reported to have an agreement with Philadelphia, a trio of new names with MLB experience were among the batch: righties Jeremy Walker and Mark Appel, and left-hander Ben Bowden.

Walker, 27, has six big league appearances to his name. Those came with the Braves back in 2019, when he worked 9 1/3 innings of two-run ball out of Brian Snitker’s bullpen. Walker had posted a 3.97 ERA with quality peripherals that season for Triple-A Gwinnett and looked to be a potential middle relief option for Atlanta. Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2020 season with a shoulder impingement and was released the following offseason.

The former 5th-round pick signed a minor league deal with the Giants shortly thereafter. He missed the entire ’21 season as well but returned to affiliated action last year. Walker made 28 appearances for San Francisco’s top affiliate, posting a 6.88 ERA over 35 1/3 innings in an extremely hitter-friendly environment. He had roughly average strikeout and walk marks and still attracted the interest of the Rays, who sent infielder Ford Proctor to San Francisco for Walker at the trade deadline. He closed out the year with 21 2/3 frames of 5.91 ERA ball for Tampa Bay’s top affiliate and didn’t get an MLB look before hitting minor league free agency.

Bowden also spent time in Triple-A with San Francisco and Tampa Bay last season. The 28-year-old began the season with the Rockies but landed in Tampa via waiver claim. The Rays successfully ran him through waivers and kept him in the minors before dealing him to San Francisco in late July. Between the three clubs, the Vanderbilt product posted a 5.46 ERA over 57 2/3 frames of relief. He punched out an excellent 29.9% of opposing hitters but had a similarly lofty 13.8% walk percentage.

A former second-round pick and Futures Game participant, Bowden has long tantalized with swing-and-miss stuff but struggled with shaky control in the minors. He’d spent his entire career in the Colorado organization prior to last year, reaching the majors in 2021. Bowden provided the Rox 35 2/3 innings of 6.56 ERA ball as a rookie, fanning 23.7% of opponents against an 11.9% walk rate. That’s his only MLB experience to date.

Appel is a more familiar name to Phillies fans. The former first overall pick looked as if he’d never reach the majors when he stepped away from the game after the 2017 season. He returned to the Philadelphia organization in 2021 and got another crack last year despite some initial rust. That paid off when Appel posted strong numbers at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. In June, he secured his long-awaited big league call — making for one of the league’s better stories in 2022.

The 31-year-old allowed only two runs through his first 10 1/3 innings. He averaged 95 MPH on his sinker and racked up grounders at a massive 56.3% clip to put himself in the middle innings mix. That preceded an unfortunate battle with elbow inflammation that ended his season. At year’s end, Philadelphia ran Appel through waivers and sent him to free agency. He returns to the organization a few months later and will try to pitch his way back onto the 40-man roster.

Phillies Notes: Harper, Outfield, Nola

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Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently made an appearance on Philadelphia radio station WIP-FM, with Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer relaying some of his comments on Twitter.

One key storyline for the Phillies this year will revolve around Bryce Harper. The star outfielder was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in May of last year, which prevented him from throwing but allowed him to serve as the designated hitter. His continued presence in the lineup helped the club earn a Wild Card berth and eventually make it all the way to the World Series. After that, he did finally undergo Tommy John surgery in November, with the club announcing at that time they expected him to be out until the around the All-Star break.

Everything with that plan still seems to be in order, with Dombrowski saying that Harper’s rehab has gone well up to this point. Harper is expected to start swinging a bat around the end of March and could be back in the lineup around the time of the All-Star festivities, as initially projected.

One fallout of that Harper situation is that the Phils will have an open designated hitter slot for the first half but Harper will take it over once he’s able. The club could theoretically look outside the organization to find another bat to fill the void, but they apparently feel good enough about their internal candidates that Dombrowski doesn’t anticipate a “big acquisition”. He listed Alec Bohm, Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto as candidates to take over some time in that slot.

Bohm and Hoskins are set to man the corners in Philly just as they’ve done in previous seasons. However, neither is considered an especially strong defender. Bohm has logged 2,280 2/3 innings at third base in his career but has accumulated -36 Defensive Runs Saved, -11 Outs Above Average and a -2.8 score from Ultimate Zone Rating. Hoskins, meanwhile, has 4,195 innings at first base with -7 DRS, -12 OAA, though a positive 5.4 score from UZR. Backup infielders Kody Clemens, Edmundo Sosa and Dalton Guthrie could get some extra time in the field while Bohm and Hoskins get some DH at-bats. Clemens has played both corners and second base in the majors thus far while Sosa has played the three positions to the left of first base and Guthrie has played second and third. Realmuto is considered an excellent defender but catchers can’t crouch behind the plate every day. Since he’s also a great hitter, it makes sense to use the DH spot to get him into the lineup more frequently.

In the outfield, the everyday regulars figure to be Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Brandon Marsh. Neither Castellanos or Schwarber are considered great defenders on the grass, which would make them DH candidates as well. Even if that does end up coming to pass, Dombrowski feels good about the depth they have, mentioning Guthrie and Jake Cave. Given they feel good about their depth options, Dombrowski says they’re “basically set” while adding that further depth could always be added via a minor league deal.

Looking to the future, the Phillies have a great unknown in their rotation since Aaron Nola is now in the final year of his contract. “It’s something we’d like to do,” Dombrowski said about a Nola extension. “We want Aaron to be in the organization for a long time, no question. We love him. We love his abilities. I know he likes it in Philadelphia. So that’s something that will be in our mind… It’s never easy to be able to get done but we’d love to keep Aaron in the organization for a long time.”

Nola, 30 in June, is about to begin his ninth MLB season and so far has a 3.60 ERA through 1,288 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27.5% of batters faced while walking 6.5% of them, and he’s kept the ball on the ground at a 47.9% clip. Since his 2015 debut, his 29.9 fWAR is the sixth-most of any pitcher in the league. It’s no surprise then that the club would like to keep him around, since he’s one of the few true aces in the league. Of course, that excellent work also means he won’t be cheap. Some recent free agent deals for excellent starting pitchers have gone well into nine-figure territory, with Jacob deGrom recently getting $185MM and Carlos Rodón $162MM. It doesn’t sound like anything is particularly close between Nola and the Phillies, but if they truly want him back for next year and beyond, it will surely require adding another hefty contract to their books.

Details On 2022 Team Payrolls

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The Mets had the sport’s highest competitive balance tax payroll in 2022, reports Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. For CBT purposes, New York’s final tally checked in at $299.8MM. According to the report, that was around $2MM higher than the 2015 Dodgers’ $297.9MM mark that had stood as the previous spending record.

New York is responsible for a $30.8MM tax bill, the second-largest tally in the majors, after paying the tax for the first time in franchise history. The Dodgers will foot the highest tax payment at $32.4MM, Blum writes. While Los Angeles’ $293.3MM CBT payroll trailed that of the Mets, the Dodgers were subject to higher penalties as a payor for a second consecutive season.

The Mets are sure to shatter their own record this coming season, as they’re currently projected for a tax number north of $368MM. The Dodgers have trimmed spending, reportedly in hopes of resetting their tax status this year in preparation for a more active offseason next winter. They’re narrowly above the lowest CBT threshold at the moment. Roster Resource forecasts the Dodgers at approximately $238MM, around $5MM north of this year’s $233MM base threshold.

As the Associated Press first reported last September, six teams went over the CBT mark in 2022. Blum reports today the specifics of the payments owed by the Yankees ($9.7MM), Phillies ($2.9MM), Padres ($1.5MM as a second-time payor) and Red Sox ($1.2MM). The final three figures, in particular, are very modest expenditures relative to club payrolls. Nevertheless, the decision to narrowly surpass the threshold is significant in that it raises penalties for payments in future seasons and alters teams’ compensation for signing or losing qualified free agents. The Padres and Phillies surely don’t have regrets after each posted one of the best years in recent franchise history, but the decision didn’t translate to success in the Red Sox’s case. Blum writes that the tax money will be paid to MLB by the end of this week.

A team’s CBT number is determined by the average annual value of a club’s commitments plus player benefits and their contributions to the new bonus pool for pre-arbitration players. The CBT figure isn’t a match for an organization’s actual player payroll in a given season. Blum reports each club’s final raw payroll figure as well, with the Mets again fronting the pack at roughly $274.9MM. The Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Padres, Red Sox, White Sox, Braves, Astros and Blue Jays filled out the top ten.

On the other side, the A’s had the lowest payroll at approximately $49MM. The bottom 10 was rounded out by the Orioles, Pirates, Guardians, Marlins, Royals, Rays, D-Backs, Reds and Mariners. Full team data is available at the AP link.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

Notable International Signings: 1/15/2023

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Major League Baseball’s international signing period for 2023 has officially opened up today, with many of the big names signing almost immediately. Teams have long since agreed to verbal agreements with newly eligible teenage players, and today’s signings largely represent confirmation of what was anticipated. Still, it’s a day of no small moment, particularly for the young men embarking upon the start of their professional careers.

As previously mentioned, most of the agreements have been known for a while, with Baseball America’s Ben Badler and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez having listed each player’s expected landing spot. You can find each team’s total bonus pool and other information on the process right here. Here are a few key deals:

  • Ethan Salas, C, Venezuela — Padres ($5.6MM): Ranked as the top prospect by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, the 16-year-old is considered by MLB Pipeline as “one of the best catching prospects in recent history” and is lauded for his strike zone control, power, and defense. Scouts have specifically highlighted his swing and soft hands. Born in June 2006, the backstop is the youngest player in MLB Pipeline’s Top 10 International Prospect Rankings. The young switch-hitter is no stranger to high-level baseball, with his grandfather, father, and uncle all playing professionally, and his older brother Jose Salas signed by the Marlins in 2019. Salas’ $5.6MM deal will comprise almost all of the Padres’ base signing pool of $5.825,000.
  • Felnin Celesten, SS, Dominican Republic — Mariners ($4.7MM): MLB Pipeline’s second-best prospect and Baseball America’s third-best, Celesten has been heralded as having “the highest ceiling of any international shortstop prospect in a decade” by MLB Pipeline. Scouts have noted the switch-hitter’s plus speed, arm, and raw power. However, Baseball America reports that Celesten has “an aggressive approach” and “might need to become a more selective hitter.“
  • Brando Mayea, OF, Cuba — Yankees ($4.4MM): Baseball America’s second-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s ninth-best, Mayea has drawn praise for his bat speed, power, and approach to the plate, with one scout going as far as to describe the 17-year-old as a “mini Gary Sheffield.” Scouts have praised the righty’s strong arm, with some expecting an eventual move to a corner outfield position.
  • Alfredo Duno, C, Venezuela — Reds (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fourth-best prospect and Baseball America’s seventh-best, Duno is a 17-year-old catcher that boasts three above-average tools — his fielding, arm, and power. Scouts have praised his “elite bat speed” and defensive ability. MLB Pipeline and Baseball America both predict that Duno will remain behind the plate, but both also cite his swing-and-miss tendencies as a result of his aggressive approach.
  • Emmanuel Bonilla, OF, Dominican Republic — Blue Jays ($4.1MM): Baseball America’s fourth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s seventh-best, Bonilla profiles as a slugging outfielder that has a chance to remain in centerfield but will likely move to a corner position as the 16-year-old matures. Scouts have praised the righty’s bat speed and swing, with Baseball America reporting that some scouts believe Bonilla has “one of the best combinations of hitting ability and power in the class.”
  • Luis Morales, RHP, Cuba — Athletics (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fifth-best prospect and Baseball America’s ninth-best, Morales is a hard-throwing righty with a fastball that sits between 94-97 MPH with a slider, changeup, and curveball as secondary pitches. Born in Cuba, Morales was considered the best U-18 pitcher on the island, setting a record for strikeouts (161) in 82 2/3 innings between 2019 and 2020. He defected in 2021 while playing for Cuba’s U-23 team in Mexico. Morales, 20, is one of the oldest high-profile international prospects and thus may be potentially fast-tracked through the A’s system.
  • Sebastian Walcott, SS, Bahamas — Rangers (Unknown): Baseball America’s sixth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s eighth-best, Walcott is a 6’3, 170 lbs (6’4, 190 lbs, per Baseball America) 16-year-old that has impressed scouts with high raw power and bat speed. Despite being 6’3, Walcott has drawn praise for his contact skills, hand-eye coordination, and his fluid swing. Baseball America projects that as Walcott matures, he will outgrow the shortstop position and transition to third base. 

Several other well-regarded prospects also secured bonuses of $2M or more, with the specifics provided by Sanchez:

  • Brailer Guerrero, OF, D.R., Rays ($3.7MM)     [MLB Pipeline #12, BA #5]
  • Jesus Caba, SS, D.R., Phillies ($3MM)                [MLB Pipeline #11, BA #8]
  • Ariel Castro, OF, Cuba, Twins ($2.5MM)            [MLB Pipeline #11, BA#13]
  • Rayner Arias, OF, D.R., Giants ($2.8MM)          [MLB Pipeline #15, BA #8]
  • Camilo Diaz, OF, D.R., Astros ($2.25MM)          [MLB Pipeline #17, BA #19]
  • Luis Almeyda, SS, D.R., Orioles ($2.3MM)        [MLB Pipeline #20, BA #17]
  • Roberto Calaz, OF, D.R., Rockies ($2.5MM)     [MLB Pipeline #24, BA #14]

MLBTR Poll: The NL East Favorite

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The National League East is shaping up as one of baseball’s more competitive divisions in 2023. The defending champion Braves, Mets and Phillies have all made big moves to bolster their already strong rosters, while the Marlins will lean on a quality rotation to try and be competitive. The Nationals are, of course, in full rebuild mode and won’t be among the division’s best this year.

There’s still a chance of one or two significant moves to be made in this division. It’s been reported that Miami has made four of their starting pitchers available in trades, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them ship out a starter to bring in an offensive upgrade, possibly an outfielder.

Nonetheless, let’s take a look at each team’s off-season to see how they stack up in this division heading into the new season (teams listed in last year’s standings order).

Atlanta Braves (101-61)

In: C Sean Murphy, LHP Lucas Luetge, OF Jordan Luplow, OF Eli White, LHP Kolby Allard, RHP Joe Jimenez.

Out: SS Dansby Swanson, RHP Kenley Jansen, RHP Darren O’Day, RHP Luke Jackson, OF Adam Duvall, C William Contreras, C Manny Pina.

The Braves big splash of the off-season was their trade for Murphy. In typical Braves fashion, they wasted little time in extending him as well, signing him to a six-year, $73MM pact to lock him in as their catcher of the future. The Braves weren’t struggling at catcher, but the arrival of Murphy is still an upgrade over Contreras and Pina, who were both shipped out in the deal. He’ll join a lineup that is largely the same as the one that won 101 games last season. The big hole remains at shortstop and in left field. Swanson departed for the Cubs in free agency, and the team could either rely on Orlando Arcia or rookie Vaughn Grissom to take over. Eddie Rosario was worth -1.1 fWAR in 2022, but the Braves are paying him $9MM this year and it seems likely he’ll be back as the starter in left. Luplow could get some opportunities to take the starting job on his new team, but he posted a wRC+ of just 78 last season.

In the rotation, Max Fried will be back to lead a starting corp that also features Kyle Wright, Spencer Strider and veteran Charlie Morton. A wretched run of Achilles injuries meant Mike Soroka has only made three starts in the past three seasons, but he’s back and if he can stay fit and return to his 2019 performance he gives the Braves a quality fifth option. The acquisitions of Luetge and Jimenez gives the Braves another couple of quality relief arms to cover the departure of Jansen in free agency.

All told it’s a quality roster that doesn’t appear to be weaker the 2022, but will it be enough to hold off other teams in the division?

New York Mets (101-61)

In: RHP Justin Verlander, LHP Brooks Raley, RHP Zach Greene, LHP Jose Quintana, RHP David Robertson, RHP Kodai Senga, C Omar Narvaez, SS Danny Mendick, RHP Stephen Ridings, RHP Elieser Hernandez, RHP Jeff Brigham.

Out: RHP Jacob deGrom, RHP Chris Bassitt, RHP, Seth Lugo, RHP Trevor May, RHP Trevor Williams, OF Tyler Naquin, LHP Joely Rodriguez, RHP Taijuan Walker, 1B Dominic Smith, RHP Mychal Givens, C James McCann.

The Mets effectively had to overhaul their rotation and bullpen this winter, after a series of major departures in both areas. In a fashion befitting the Steve Cohen-era Mets, they did so in expensive fashion. The Mets quickly offset the departures of deGrom, Bassitt and Walker by signing Verlander, Quintana and Senga to big deals and ensuring their rotation is at least as strong as last year. In the bullpen they re-signed Adam Ottavino, brought in David Robertson and made a series of smaller trades and waiver claims to rebuild their relief group.

Offensively, the Mets didn’t have too many moves to make. The big hole was in the outfield, but the team addressed that by bringing back Brandon Nimmo on an eight-year, $162MM deal. They came close to adding Carlos Correa, but that move broke down over the much-publicized medical concerns. Correa would’ve certainly been a boost to their offense, but they’re still in a good spot without him. They could probably still do with another outfielder, and it’s been reported that they’re interested in the remaining free agent options there (Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall etc).

The Mets led the East for the majority of 2022 and they’ll again be up there in ’23. Perhaps one more major move (like Correa) would’ve sealed them as division favorites, but they’re still in a very good spot as is.

Philadelphia Phillies (87-75)

In: LHP Gregory Soto, INF Kody Clemens, RHP Craig Kimbrel, RHP Taijuan Walker, LHP Matt Strahm, SS Trea Turner, OF Jake Cave,

Out: OF Matt Vierling, INF Phil Maton, C Donny Sands, INF Jean Segura, RHP Noah Syndergaard, LHP Brad Hand, RHP Chris Devenski, RHP Kyle Gibson, RHP David Robertson, RHP Zach Eflin, RHP Corey Knebel.

The Phillies went all the way to the World Series in 2022, but they still finished 14 games back of the Braves and Mets in the division so had a bit of work to do to try and close that gap going into this season. The addition of Turner gives them a superstar at the top of their lineup alongside Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and co. If youngsters Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh can take a step forward at the plate this year they’ll have a much deeper lineup. They’ll hope they can do enough to stick with the Braves and Mets in the first half of the season, before welcoming back star Bryce Harper from injury at some stage mid-season.

On the pitching side of things, Walker slots in as a quality third option behind Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler in the rotation. The bullpen lost a number of players this winter, but the additions of Strahm, Soto and Kimbrel to a group that already has Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado and Andrew Bellatti should make that area of the team a strength in season.

All told, the Phillies do look a better unit than they were to start 2022, but it remains to be seen whether or not that’ll be enough to make up 14 games on the Braves and Mets – who certainly haven’t taken a step backwards themselves this winter.

Miami Marlins (69-93)

In: INF Jacob Amaya, INF Jean Segura, OF Jake Mangum, RHP JT Chargois, SS Xavier Edwards, RHP Johnny Cueto.

Out: SS Miguel Rojas, RHP Elieser Hernandez, RHP Jeff Brigham, 3B Brian Anderson, RHP Nick Neidert.

The Marlins have had a quiet off-season, but they could be one of the busiest teams in all of baseball, let alone the NL East, between now and the start of the season. That’s because they’ve reportedly made four of their starters – Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo – available in trades. That speculation has only intensified in the wake of them agreeing to a deal with veteran starter Johnny Cueto.

As such, it makes sense to start with a look at their rotation as things stand. Sandy Alcantara isn’t going anywhere and he’ll be back to lead the rotation after winning the Cy Young award in 2022. Beyond Alcantara will be Cueto and then some combination of the four previously mentioned starters. The fact team also has Sixto Sanchez returning as well as Braxton Garrett available shows how deep their rotation options are, but also that they could feasibly deal two starters and still be in a good position in the rotation. In any event, pitching should be a strength for the Marlins in 2023.

Presumably any trade of a starter would be to add a bat to their lineup. The signing of Segura likely filled out their infield, but the team could certainly do with an outfield upgrade. Bryan Reynolds is the highest profile option there, but other options on the could include Max Kepler or a free agent addition such as Pham or Duvall.

The Marlins do look capable of topping last year’s 69-win total as is, but it’d be interesting to see how they’d go with a deeper lineup, and whether or not a swing-for-the-fences-type move such as trading for Reynolds would propel them into the Wildcard conversation.

Washington Nationals (55-107)

In: OF Corey Dickerson, 1B Dominic Smith, SS Jeter Downs, RHP Trevor Williams, OF Stone Garrett, 3B Jeimer Candelario.

Out: 1B/DH Luke Voit, RHP Steve Cishek, RHP Will Harris, 2B Cesar Hernandez, RHP Joe Ross, DH Nelson Cruz, LHP Sean Doolittle, RHP Anibal Sanchez, RHP Erick Fedde, RHP Tommy Romero, RHP A.J. Alexy.

After eight-straight winning seasons between 2012-19 culminated in a championship in 2019, the Nationals are in full rebuild mode. They lost 107 games in 2022, and wouldn’t be a surprise to see them lose a similar amount in 2023. While the new schedule calls for fewer divisional matchups, the Nats certainly won’t be helped by regularly playing in a division with a number of quality teams.

Offensively, the Nationals will look for contributions from youngsters CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz – two players they’ll hope to build their next playoff roster around. They’ve also brought in a couple of cheaper bounceback candidates in Smith and Candelario, and both could turn themselves into trade chips at the deadline. It’s a similar story on the pitching side, where they’ll hope Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore and Cade Cavalli can show they can be long-term rotation pieces for the team.

While the Nationals are the clear favorite to prop up the group, it should be an interesting battle in the NL East, particularly with the Braves, Mets and Phillies. What do you think? Who will finish top of the East? Have your say in the poll below.

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