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Jordan Hicks Suffers Torn UCL

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Cardinals closer Jordan Hicks has suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, the team announced. Hicks may need to undergo Tommy John surgery as a result, though the club noted it’s still determining the next course of action.

Should Hicks have to go under the knife, he’d miss the rest of this year and likely the majority of next season. Hicks’ loss would be a devastating shot to St. Louis’ bullpen, which has seen the 22-year-old turn into one of the game’s most imposing relievers since he debuted in 2018. Hicks didn’t log impressive strikeout and rates as a rookie last season, when he put up 8.11 K/9 and 5.21 BB/9 in 77 2/3 innings, but still recorded a 3.59 ERA/3.74 FIP with a 60.7 percent groundball rate. He also saved six of seven chances and amassed 24 holds, thanks in part to devastating velocity.

Hicks was the only pitcher in the majors last season to average upward of 100 mph on his four-seam fastball and sinker last season. He has clocked in just below 101 mph on his four-seamer and at 101.1 mph on his sinker this year, and enjoyed even better results before suffering his injury. Hicks made good on 14 of 15 save chances for the Cardinals this season and notched a 3.14 ERA/3.18 FIP with 9.73 K/9, 3.45 BB/9 and a fantastic 67.2 percent grounder rate in 28 2/3 innings.

Losing Hicks is all the more troublesome for the Cardinals given their place in the National League playoff race. The 40-37 Redbirds haven’t been great this season, but they’re still just two games behind the NL Central-leading Cubs and tied with the Rockies for the NL’s second wild-card spot.

Fortunately for the team, it does have at least a few other reliable late-game relievers. John Gant, Giovanny Gallegos and John Brebbia have joined Hicks in turning in good to excellent results, while Andrew Miller has been better of late after a rough start. The Cardinals also have former starter Carlos Martinez, who has been effective in 15 relief innings since making his season debut in May. Still, in the wake of the awful news on Hicks, St. Louis’ relief corps may well end up as an area of focus for the club’s front office as the July 31 trade deadline approaches.

Jordan Hicks, Alex Reyes Undergoing Medical Evaluations

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Cardinals closer Jordan Hicks and oft-injured prospect Alex Reyes are both undergoing tests today to determine the severity of a pair of potential injuries, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Hicks is having an MRI after being slowed by triceps tightness in recent days and could potentially land on the injured list. Reyes, meanwhile, exited yesterday’s Triple-A outing due to right pectoral discomfort and is being reevaluated today.

Were Hicks to require a stint on the injured list, the Cardinals could turn to either Andrew Miller or John Gant for ninth-inning work in his absence. Miller struggled terribly through his first 13 games this year but has rebounded with a 2.70 ERA and, more importantly, a 25-to-4 K/BB ratio over his past 16 2/3 innings. That sterling ratio comes after the lefty issued eight walks and hit three batters in his first 9 1/3 innings of action as a Cardinal. Gant, meanwhile, boasts a 2.40 ERA with 8.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9 and a 47.1 percent grounder rate in 41 1/3 innings of relief.

That’s not to say that the loss of Hicks wouldn’t sting, of course. The 22-year-old has improved in every meaningful category in 2019. At present, he has a 3.14 ERA with 9.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a superlative 67.2 percent ground-ball rate. He’s upped his swinging-strike rate and opponents’ chase rates from 9.4 percent and 26.1 percent to 11.9 percent and 29.5 percent, respectively. Even Hicks’ otherworldly heater has taken a step forward in 2019; after averaging a blazing 100.5 mph on the pitch in 2018, he’s upped his average fastball velocity to 101.2 mph this year.

The news on Reyes, 24, is more concerning not necessarily because of the specific nature of his injury but because the vaunted right-hander has an already lengthy injury history that has led to concerns about his ability to remain on the field. Reyes has thrown  just 64 1/3 innings from 2017-19 combined and has never reached 120 innings in a single season. He’s previously undergone Tommy John surgery as well as surgery to repair a tendon in his lat muscle last season.

The Cardinals’ pitching staff has received a boost in recent weeks. Carlos Martinez returned to bolster the bullpen and has turned in 15 innings of 3.00 ERA ball. Michael Wacha tossed two quality starts (albeit against one clunker) upon rejoining the rotation following a bullpen sojourn. Miller’s resurgence, too, has been a vital development. The club looks better equipped to handle absences for Hicks and/or Reyes with that trio looking mostly sharp, but a significant absence for either pitcher could of course impact the manner in which the Cards operate in the weeks leading up to next month’s trade deadline.

St. Louis currently looks like a buyer, as the Cards are in a tie for an NL Wild Card spot and just two games behind the division-leading Cubs. That stance isn’t likely to change, but their area of focus and level of urgency to make a deal will undoubtedly be impacted by health throughout the roster.

How The Cards Could've Traded Albert Pujols In 2000

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On July 31, 2000, the Padres and Cardinals swung a trade deadline deal that sent Heathcliff Slocumb and prospect Ben Johnson to San Diego in exchange for catcher Carlos Hernandez and minor league utilityman Nate Tebbs.  The swap is little more than a footnote in team history, though it could’ve been a far more legendary trade had Johnson been replaced with another prospect who was on the Padres’ radar — Albert Pujols.  Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch details the intriguing history of that would-be deal, and how the Cardinals front office had to make a decision between including Pujols (a famously unheralded 13th-round pick in the 1999 draft) or Johnson, a much more highly-touted fourth-rounder from that same draft.  Pujols showed so much promise in his early pro career, however, that the team ultimately decided to move Johnson and spend more time evaluating a potential hidden gem.  “I really didn’t want to give up Ben, either, but that’s why you always have your top guys scout your own system,” said Walt Jocketty, then the Cardinals’ general manager.  “You have to know your own, like Pujols. There was no way we could trade him. No way, just based on what our guys had seen in a short period of time. They said, ‘I think he’s going to be something special – or has a chance to be.’ When I saw it myself, it was obvious.”

Jordan Hicks Dealing With Triceps Tendinitis

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  • Cardinals closer Jordan Hicks is dealing with right triceps tendinitis, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets. Hicks will undergo additional tests Sunday. One of the last things the Cardinals need is a long absence for the 22-year-old Hicks, who has put up a 3.14 ERA/3.17 FIP with 9.73 K/9, 3.45 BB/9, a whopping 67.2 percent groundball rate and 14 saves on 15 chances in 28 2/3 innings this season. Hicks is the hardest thrower in baseball, which has certainly aided in his success.

Jedd Gyorko Suffers Setback

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JUNE 22: Gyorko’s now dealing with a right wrist issue that will require minor arthroscopic surgery, Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweets. He won’t restart baseball activities for approximately three weeks.

JUNE 19: Injured Cardinals infielder Jedd Gyorko suffered a setback this week and won’t return “for a while,” Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.

Gyorko went to the injured list June 8 with a lower back strain, but he may now be dealing with a left calf strain. It’s the latest significant lower body issue for Gyorko, who thrice went on the IL with hamstring and groin strains from 2017-18.

Gyorko’s injury woes add to what has been a contract season to forget for the 30-year-old. Although the former Padre combined to hit .259/.331/.463 (111 wRC+) with 61 home runs and 6.1 fWAR in 1,321 plate appearances from 2016-18, his first three seasons as a Cardinal, playing time has been scarce for Gyorko this year. Stuck behind third baseman Matt Carpenter, second baseman Kolten Wong and shortstop Paul DeJong on the Cardinals’ depth chart, Gyorko has totaled just 62 PA in 2019 and batted a poor .196/.274/.304 (57 wRC+) with a pair of HRs.

Between his injuries and weak production, Gyorko looks as if he’s on track to settle for a much lower salary than his current $13MM when he reaches free agency in the offseason.  The Cardinals will have a chance to keep Gyorko for another $13MM then, but they’re sure to decline his option in favor of a $1MM buyout.

Carlos Martinez To Stay In Current Role

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Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez has been a highly capable starter for most of tenure with the club, which dates back to 2013. But the Cardinals moved the then-injured Martinez to their bullpen in late April, and that’s where he’s going to stay for the time being, per manager Mike Shildt (via Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Shildt suggested the Cardinals don’t have time to build up Martinez, who opened the season on the injured list with shoulder problems. “To put him back in that cycle again doesn’t make a lot of sense when he’s in a spot where he’s had success and he’s recovering,” Shildt said of Martinez, who has totaled 12 appearances and 13 1/3 innings with a 3.38 ERA/3.47 FIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 58.3 percent groundball rate since he made his season debut May 18. Even though Martinez has posted good numbers as a reliever, the Cardinals’ rotation has missed the 27-year-old. Their starting staff has been mediocre or worse this season.

Adam Wainwright To Return Thursday

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  • Cardinals righty Adam Wainwright will come off the IL to start Thursday, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com relays. Wainwright has been on the shelf since he departed a June 9 start with left hamstring tightness. Like most of St. Louis’ other starters, the 37-year-old Cardinals icon has registered unspectacular numbers this season. Wainwright owns a 4.46 ERA/4.59 FIP with 7.77 K/9 and 3.95 BB/9 in 70 2/3 innings.

Cardinals Select Rangel Ravelo’s Contract

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12:05pm: The move is now official. Righty Mike Mayers was moved to the 60-day IL to create 40-man space.

1:06am: The Cardinals are set to add minor league infielder Rangel Ravelo to their big league roster, The Athletic’s Robert Murray reports (Twitter link).  Ravelo’s contract should be selected prior to the Cards’ game with the Marlins on Monday night.  Yairo Munoz is headed to the paternity list, which will create a spot for Ravelo on the Cards’ 25-man roster, though a 40-man spot will still need to be created.

MLB.com doesn’t rank Ravelo as one of the Cardinals’ top 30 prospects, though the 27-year-old put up strong numbers during Spring Training this year, and then rebounded from an oblique injury to hit .333/.414/.543 with nine home runs over 249 PA for Triple-A Memphis.  Speaking to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch last week, Cards president of baseball operations John Mozeliak cited Ravelo as “not a name I’d rule out” in regards to a promotion.

Ravelo has played mostly first base and left field in recent years, with some work as as right fielder as well.  Since Paul Goldschmidt has first base spoken for in St. Louis, Ravelo seems likely to step into the corner outfield mix, though he is something of an imperfect fit on a roster already overloaded with right-handed bats.  Of course, this assumes that Ravelo will be up in the majors for anything beyond a cup of coffee, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes that Jedd Gyorko is expected back from the 10-day injured list on Tuesday.  Ravelo could very well find himself back in Memphis in 24 hours’ time, without having officially made his Major League debut.

A sixth-round pick for the White Sox in the 2010 draft, Ravelo has consistently hit for high averages and shown a lot of on-base skills in amassing a .301/.372/.444 slash line over 3383 career plate appearances in the minors.  After spending his first five pro seasons in Chicago’s farm system, he was part of a notable trade in December 2014, going along with Marcus Semien, Josh Phegley and Chris Bassitt to the Athletics in exchange for Jeff Samardzija and Michael Ynoa.  Ravelo originally came to the Cards on a minors contract in April 2017.

Cardinals Sign 14th-Rounder To Above-Slot Deal

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  • Two teams made significant signings beyond the 10th round that will have hefty impacts on their draft bonus pools, as every post-10th round draft pick who signs for more than $125K will have the extra money counted against the pool.  The Braves signed 13th-round pick Tyler Owens to a $547.5K bonus, as per MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, while MLB.com’s Jim Callis reports that the Cardinals have signed 14th-rounder Tyler Statler to a $300K bonus.  Both Owens and Statler are right-handed pitchers out of high school, who had respectively committed to attend Florida and Southeast Missouri State.

Miles Mikolas Has Fallen Off

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The Cardinals signed free-agent right-hander Miles Mikolas to a two-year, $15.5MM guarantee in what became one of the wisest moves of the 2017-18 offseason. Although hardly a bank-breaking commitment, it was somewhat of a gamble for St. Louis. After all, Mikolas was an unspectacular major leaguer with the Padres and Rangers from 2012-14 who then spent three years pitching in Japan. Mikolas was dominant overseas, though, and he carried that excellence into 2018 in St. Louis.

During his first year with the Cardinals, Mikolas pitched to an outstanding 2.83 ERA/3.28 FIP in 200 2/3 innings. While Mikolas only struck out 6.55 batters per nine, he walked a mere 1.3 and induced ground balls at a 49.3 percent clip. Mikolas’ stinginess in the walk and fly ball departments helped lead to a 4.3 fWAR, which ranked 12th among major league starters.

Sold on Mikolas’ output last season, the Cardinals signed him to an extension worth a guaranteed $68MM for four years back in February. That deal will keep Mikolas under wraps through 2023, but unfortunately for the Cardinals, it’s not looking like a great move so far. Facing the lowly Marlins on Wednesday, Mikolas allowed five earned runs on eight hits in five innings, thereby raising his ERA to 4.83 in 78 1/3 frames this season. His 4.74 FIP isn’t much better.

Mikolas’ 2019 woes haven’t come because of significant declines in the strikeout, walk, groundball or BABIP categories. Those numbers look almost the same compared to last season, though there has been a noticeable drop in his strike rate. Nobody posted a higher strike percentage than Mikolas’ 69.3 a year ago, but the figure has fallen to 65.8 in 2019. Meanwhile, Mikolas’ strand rate has decreased by a large margin (from 76.2 percent to 70.9), and he has been far more prone to surrendering long balls.

After yielding home runs on a meager 9.2 percent of fly balls in 2018, Mikolas is all the way up to 19.7 this season. It hasn’t helped that Mikolas’ infield fly rate has plummeted from 9.8 percent to 4.2. At the same time, his hard-hit rate has climbed by greater than 5 percent, according to FanGraphs, while Statcast indicates his average exit velocity against has hopped from 85.4 mph to 88.2. Consequently, Mikolas’ weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against has shot from .271/.286 to .339/.347.

So why the newfound contact management issues? For one, Mikolas isn’t fooling as many hitters this year, as they’ve chased 5 percent fewer pitches than they did last season. And left-handed hitters have been especially tough on Mikolas, who held them to a .309 wOBA last season but has seen the number jump to .396 this year. As seen in these FanGraphs heatmaps (2018, ’19), he’s not staying away against lefties as well he did last season.

Worsening matters, Mikolas’ once-elite slider has been ineffective, and he has leaned on it less as a result. While Mikolas’ slider was one of the most valuable pitches of its kind a year ago, per FanGraphs, it has taken colossal steps backward this season. Batters posted a measly .201/.231 wOBA/xwOBA versus the offering in his first year in St. Louis, but they’re up to .395/.329 in the current campaign. If we’re to take that 66-point gap in face value, there has been some poor fortune involved. However, it simply hasn’t been close to as lethal as it was in 2018, perhaps owing to a 1 mph drop in velocity and somewhat of a change in typical location (heatmaps via FanGraphs: ’18, ’19).

Contrary to last season, when Mikolas’ slider helped him perform like one of the majors’ top starters, troubling signs abound for the 2019 version of the righty. His struggles are a key reason why the Cardinals have gotten off to a mediocre start and are on track to miss the playoffs for a fourth straight season. That’s not what the Redbirds had in mind when they bought high on Mikolas over the winter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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