Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Cardinals Still Showing Interest In Dylan Cease

By | at

Even after revamping their rotation with a rapid-fire trio of free agent signings, the Cardinals are still in the mix for White Sox righty Dylan Cease, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said at the press conference to introduce Sonny Gray that he “doubted” his next move would be to add more starting pitching but conceded that he remains “open-minded” to further rotation additions (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).

The Cardinals, of course, signed Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn in just over a week’s time, adding a trio of arms who combined for 97 starts in 2023. The addition of Gray added a front-end presence to the St. Louis rotation, while Lynn and Gibson at the very least provided some reliable bulk innings on the back end. It seems clear that the Cards prioritized some stability after years of injury-related starting pitching crunches at Busch Stadium, and Cease would be a fourth addition in that vein.

In terms of pure results, the 27-year-old Cease (28 next month) has been on both ends of the spectrum recently. In 2022, he finished runner-up to Justin Verlander in AL Cy Young voting, while his 2023 campaign saw his ERA more than double from 2.20 to 4.58. Cease’s velocity dipped by a mile per hour, his strikeout rate fell three percentage points, and he yielded far more hard contact than he did during that elite 2022 campaign. What remained constant, however, was the righty’s availability. Cease made 33 starts this past season — his fourth straight year with a full slate of starts. Since 2020, Cease leads all MLB pitchers with 109 games started.

As things stand, the Cardinals project for a five-man rotation of Gray, Miles Mikolas, Lynn, Gibson and Steven Matz. Mikolas and Matz are both signed through 2025 — Mikolas at a total of $32MM and Matz at $24MM. There’s been some speculation about the possibility of an eventual Matz trade, but the Cardinals are also surely reluctant to thin out their depth too much after being burned by a lack of depth in multiple seasons recently.

Cease would give the Cardinals even more bulk innings but do so while carrying more upside than perhaps any member of their current staff. He’d surely benefit from a move out of the White Sox’ homer-happy stadium and away from their poorly ranked defense. With two years of club control remaining, a projected $8.8MM salary in arbitration (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and clear Cy Young-caliber upside on the mound, bidding for Cease’s services will be fierce.

Already this winter, he’s been connected to the Braves, Dodgers, Reds and Orioles. That’s surely just a fraction of the teams who’ve at least reached out to the ChiSox to gauge the asking price. The Cardinals’ recent free-agent activity might lessen their urgency relative to some of those other suitors, but it’s nevertheless of note that they remain in the mix at all.

From a payroll perspective, they can likely make a Cease acquisition work without even dramatically raising their spending from last year’s levels. The Cards backloaded Gray’s three-year, $75MM contract such that he’ll be paid just $10MM in 2024. Roster Resource projects a $180MM payroll right now, which is only narrowly higher than last year’s Opening Day mark. And the Cards could yet trade arbitration-eligible names like Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson, which would impact that payroll projection.

Someone like O’Neill — a free agent at season’s end — isn’t likely to hold much appeal to the White Sox, who’ll be looking for controllable talent to build around in the near future. But generally speaking, the Cardinals have a bevy of young, MLB-ready talent that could interest Chicago. Names like Carlson, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Luken Baker and Matthew Liberatore all have at least three seasons of club control remaining, and that’s not even counting some interesting upper-minors prospects who’ve yet to debut but are relatively close to the Majors (e.g. Gordon Graceffo, Tink Hence).

As for the timing of a potential Cease trade, reports on the matter are conflicting in nature; MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggested just yesterday that Cease’s market was heating up and a trade could come together by Sunday evening. Not 18 hours later, Rosenthal reported nearly the opposite — that Sox GM Chris Getz has been indicating to teams he prefers to wait until after the top free-agent names have come off the board.

Latest On Dylan Cease

By | at

Nov. 30: The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggests a very different scenario regarding Cease, writing that Getz & Co. prefer to wait to move him until after the top starters on the market have signed. Clubs with current interest (e.g. Cincinnati, Baltimore), aren’t likely to play for the top names in free agency anyhow and will thus remain in play even if the Sox take their time trading Cease. And, by waiting until the top of the free agent market thins out, the Sox could potentially attract more bidders in the form of those who miss out on the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, etc.

Nov. 29: The White Sox have discussed Dylan Cease trades with teams since the offseason got underway. It seems they’ve gained some amount of traction, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that talks have “intensified” this week. Morosi suggests the ChiSox may pull the trigger on a deal prior to the Winter Meetings, which begin Sunday evening.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has linked the Dodgers and Braves to the hard-throwing righty in recent weeks. There are surely plenty of other teams that have been in touch with first-year general manager Chris Getz.  Morosi calls the Braves one of the “finalists” for Cease’s services. That implies the Sox have narrowed down the field of suitors, although there’s no clarity as to how many clubs are still in the running.

Cease has been a popular trade target going back to the deadline. The Sox elected not to move him over the summer. A few weeks after the deadline, owner Jerry Reinsdorf dismissed front office leaders Rick Hahn and Ken Williams. He bumped Getz from assistant GM to the top role not long thereafter. Getz has rather bluntly discussed the lack of depth on the MLB roster. He has made clear there aren’t any players who are categorically off the table in trade discussions.

While Luis Robert Jr. probably has the most appeal of anyone on the team, Cease is the more likely of their high-value targets to change uniforms. The Sox have their franchise center fielder signed to a contract with club options running through the 2027 season. Cease is under team control for two years. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an $8.8MM salary in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility.

Cease, who turns 28 next month, is coming off a relative down season. His ERA jumped from 2.20 during his Cy Young runner-up campaign in 2022 to 4.58 this year. Cease lost a couple points off his strikeout rate but still fanned a quality 27.3% of opposing hitters while taking the ball for a full slate of 33 starts.

Despite the relative down season, he remains the clear best pitcher on the roster. While Getz has expressed a willingness to make significant changes, he hasn’t characterized the situation as a rebuild. It stands to reason they’d look for major league and/or upper minors talent in a Cease trade. They took a volume approach to their first major trade of the offseason, acquiring five players (four of whom are MLB-ready depth types) from the Braves for reliever Aaron Bummer two weeks ago.

MLB Tenders Status Check On KBO Reliever Deok Ju Ham

By | at

Major League Baseball has tendered a status check with the Korea Baseball Organization on left-handed reliever Deok Ju Ham, reports Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. The status check is a formal procedure when big league clubs are showing interest in a KBO player. Ham is a true unrestricted free agent due to the fact that he’s already accrued more than nine years of service time in the KBO. As such, he can sign with any team — KBO, MLB, NPB or otherwise — without requiring a transfer via the posting system.

Ham, 29 in January, was a key bullpen arm for the KBO champion LG Twins this past season, pitching to an outstanding 1.62 earned run average with a 26.6% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate and 59.8% ground-ball rate in 55 2/3 innings. Injuries limited his innings and effectiveness in 2021-22, but overall Ham possesses a strong track record. Dating back to 2018, he sports a 3.04 ERA with a 23.4% strikeout rate. He’s walked an unsightly 12% of his opponents over that span, but a good portion of those command struggles came during his injury-shortened 2021-22 campaigns (when he dealt with elbow troubles and frequent blister issues, per Yoo). In his past two full, healthy seasons (2020 and 2023), Ham posted walk rates of 8.8% and 9.9%. Those are still sub-par marks but not quite as alarming as walk rates he posted while batting injuries.

The status check from MLB to KBO is a clear indicator that Ham has drawn at least some level of interest from one or more MLB clubs, though the extent of that interest isn’t clear — nor is the identity of the team(s) in question. Status checks on KBO players do not always portend a deal with a big league club, either. It’s possible Ham ultimately prefers to stay in South Korea and/or simply finds more lucrative deals in his current setting.

Yoo notes that Ham features four pitches — four-seamer, slider, curveball, changeup — the best of which is his changeup. That explains Ham’s reverse splits in 2023, as the changeup gives him a weapon to neutralize opposite-handed opponents. Ham is not a hard-thrower, however, and relies more on a deceptive delivery than overpowering stuff.

Because Ham is a true free agent, there’s no set negotiation window with MLB clubs and thus no good way of knowing when he might decide between testing the MLB waters or returning to the KBO (be it with the Twins or a new team in free agency). Given his track record and his excellent platform year with the eventual Korean Series champions, Ham should have offers to remain in South Korea if MLB teams don’t make any compelling offers.

The offseason market for left-handed relievers includes a handful of solid veterans beyond top dog Josh Hader, who could establish a new benchmark for bullpen contracts this winter. Aroldis Chapman, Matt Moore, Wandy Peralta, Brent Suter, Will Smith and star NPB left-hander Yuki Matsui are among the non-Hader options available. One point in Ham’s favor is that he’s considerably younger than most of the other free agents; Matsui is heading into his age-28 season, but the most established lefties on this winter’s market are all in their mid-to-late 30s.

The Opener: Cease, Reds, Outstanding DH Award

By | at

The hot stove is heating up with a notable overnight signing. Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Is a Cease trade on the horizon?

With the White Sox openly considering deals for any and all players on their roster, right-hander Dylan Cease has been among the hottest names on the rumor mill to this point in the offseason. Cease’s trade candidacy began to escalate somewhat yesterday, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi even suggesting that it’s possible a deal could be in place before the start of the Winter Meetings this weekend. The Dodgers, Braves, Red Sox, and Orioles have all been publicly connected to Cease, whose trade market we examined earlier this month.

While Cease is coming off an uneven 2023 campaign that saw him post a 4.58 ERA despite a solid 3.72 FIP, he owns a much stronger 3.54 ERA and 3.40 FIP over the past three seasons and could have more appeal to some clubs as a target than other arms rumored to be available such as Shane Bieber, Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow due to the fact that he’s arbitration eligible for both the 2024 and ’25 campaigns.

2. What’s next for the Reds?

The Reds have mostly sat out free agency in recent years, with zero players signed to multi-year contracts since the 2019-20 offseason that saw them bring in Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama, and Wade Miley on multi-year pacts. That inactivity changed yesterday, however, as the club reportedly agreed to terms with two right-handers on two-year contracts: reliever Emilio Pagan and swingman Nick Martinez. The moves help to shore up a pitching staff that proved to be the primary culprit behind the Reds missing the postseason with an 82-80 record in 2023 despite the emergence of a core of young players like Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott, and Elly De La Cruz (among others).

While the combined guarantee of $42MM to Pagan and Martinez represents a substantial financial outlay relative to Cincinnati’s recent spending habits, the club likely has plenty of room to add further salary; RosterResource projects their 2024 payroll at just $71MM — $16MM below their 2023 payroll and more than $50MM below the club’s all-time high payroll of $126MM in 2019, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

3. Outstanding DH Award winner announced:

MLB’s awards season will conclude tonight with the announcement of this year’s Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award winner. The winner will be announced at 5pm CT this evening on MLB Network. While the likes of Yordan Alvarez, Bryce Harper, and Marcell Ozuna all had excellent seasons at DH in 2023, it’s hard to imagine the award going to anyone other than free agent superstar Shohei Ohtani. If Ohtani does take home the hardware, it’ll be his third consecutive season doing so. That’s more consecutive wins than any player other than David Ortiz, who won the award five seasons in a row from 2003-07. Martinez himself won the award five times between 1995 to 2001, though never more than twice consecutively.

Brewers “Expected” To Extend Jackson Chourio

By | at

The Brewers and top outfield prospect Jackson Chourio are close on a contract extension, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that the deal is expected to get done today with a guarantee of eight years and nearly $80MM along with two club options. Earlier reporting had indicated that the sides were making progress on an extension in recent days, with Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel first suggesting the aforementioned eight-year, $80MM framework. Per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, the sides have agreed upon the eight year, two club option framework but need to finalize the financial details and have Chourio undergo a physical before the deal is complete.

The deal will be the largest ever offered to a player prior to their major league debut, surpassing the six-year, $50MM guarantee the White Sox gave to Luis Robert Jr. prior to the 2020 season. While Chourio, 19, has played just six games above the Double-A level to this point in his young career, it’s easy to see why this level of confidence in the youngster. Chourio is a consensus top-three prospect in the sport, with only Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday ranked above him consistently by prospect outlets.

Chourio signed with Milwaukee out of Venezuela for a $1.8MM bonus back in 2021 and immediately made an impression during his professional debut with a .286/.386/.447 slash line in 45 Dominican Summer League games at just 17 years old. His stateside debut the following season went even better as the youngster slashed a phenomenal .288/.342/.538 in 439 trips to the plate split between the Single-A, High-A, and Double-A levels. That performance already made Chourio a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport prior to the 2023 season, and he did little to disprove his status among the game’s elite prospect talents, slashing .280/.336/.467 in 559 plate appearances in his return to Double-A before his aforementioned cup of coffee in Triple-A. While he received just 24 plate appearances at the minors’ highest level, Chourio did not look overmatched with a slash line of .333/.375/.476.

With Chourio likely to enter the 2024 season under guaranteed contract, there will be little incentive for the Brewers to send him back to Triple-A to start the regular season so long as he doesn’t look overmatched during big league camp this spring. The deal takes away the possibility of the club securing an extra year of team control, while the club could stand to gain a draft pick from the prospect promotion incentive if Chourio secures a full year of service time as a rookie eligible player and wins the Rookie of the Year award in 2024 or places in the top three of MVP voting before he would’ve been eligible for arbitration.

That said, Chourio starting the season with the big league club isn’t necessarily guaranteed. After all, the youngster has minimal experience at the Triple-A level and the Brewers already have a relatively crowded outfield mix even before considering their top prospect. Christian Yelich figures to get everyday at-bats in either left field or as the club’s DH, leaving just two spots for Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, Tyrone Taylor, and Blake Perkins. On the other hand, only Mitchell posted an above-average offensive season by wRC+ in 2023 among that group, leaving plenty of room for Chourio to establish himself as one of the club’s best options. It’s also worth noting that the Brewers could attempt to leverage that crop of young outfield options on the trade market this offseason, improving the club in other areas while clearing up the logjam on the outfield grass.

Securing Chourio’s services for the next eight-to-ten seasons gives the Brewers some additional security regarding their potential budding superstar. Milwaukee has faced several difficult decisions regarding star players on the verge of free agency this offseason, from non-tendering ace right-hander Brandon Woodruff to considering trades for Willy Adames and Corbin Burnes. If retained into next season, both Adames and Burnes are likely to depart in free agency next winter. By extending Chourio now, the Brewers take on the risk that their teenage phenom doesn’t reach his potential at the big league level in exchange for avoiding a similar situation to the one they’re currently facing down the road.

It’s not currently clear if this deal will impact the club’s thinking with regards to Burnes and Adames, but it shouldn’t have much of an impact from a financial perspective. While Chourio’s contract figures to have an AAV in the $10MM range for luxury tax purposes, the club is more than $100MM below the first luxury tax threshold, per RosterResource. What’s more, early-career extensions tend to have salaries that ramp up over the course of the extension. In the likely event that Chourio’s deal has a similar structure, the youngster’s salary figures to be relatively low in 2024 despite the healthy guarantee.

Reds, Nick Martinez Agree To Two-Year Deal

By | at

The Reds are in agreement with Nick Martinez on a two-year, $26MM guarantee, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). The deal allows the right-hander to opt out after the first season. Yusseff Diaz of Pelota Cubana first reported that Martinez, a client of the Boras Corporation, was signing with Cincinnati.

Martinez, 33, has spent the past two seasons in San Diego. After a three-year run at Japan’s highest level, he signed with the Padres during the 2021-22 offseason. Technically a four-year guarantee, the deal afforded Martinez an opt-out chance after each year. He turned in a 3.47 ERA over 106 1/3 innings in a swing role during the first season and elected to retest free agency.

He parlayed that free agent trip into a new three-year pact with the Friars. Martinez locked in a $10MM salary for this past season, while each side had a two-year option covering the 2024-25 campaigns. He posted a remarkably similar year to his debut campaign as a Padre.

As was the case in 2022, Martinez went into this past season battling for a rotation spot. He took four turns through the rotation while Joe Musgrove was on the injured list in early April. Once Musgrove returned, Martinez moved back into the relief role he had occupied for the majority of the previous season.

He would ultimately appear in 63 contests, starting nine of them. Martinez worked 110 1/3 innings, allowing 3.43 earned runs per nine. He struck out 23% of batters faced behind a solid 12.6% swinging strike percentage. Martinez demonstrated average control and kept the ball on the ground on nearly 54% of batted balls allowed. He excelled at staying off barrels, with opponents making hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) less than 30% of the time. That contact suppression ranked within the top five percent of qualified pitchers, according to Statcast.

Over his two seasons in San Diego, he combined for a 3.45 ERA with a 22.1% strikeout rate across 216 1/3 frames. At year’s end, both he and the Friars turned down their respective option provisions. San Diego declined to retain him at $16MM annually for the next two seasons, while the player passed on successive $8MM salaries. He ultimately lands between those two price points, securing a $13MM average annual value. The guarantee is in line with MLBTR’s prediction of two years and $25MM. The opt-out affords him the flexibility to again get back to free agency a year from now if he turns in a strong season in Cincinnati.

Whether he decides to retest free agency likely depends on how well he holds up over a full season as a starter. The Friars never quite entrusted him with an extended rotation run. Martinez has started only 19 of his 110 appearances since his return to MLB. There hasn’t been a material difference in his run prevention in either role. Martinez owns a 3.48 ERA in 91 relief outings over the past two seasons; he has allowed 3.41 earned runs per nine as a starter.

As one might expect, he has had better underlying marks when working in shorter stints. Martinez’s strikeout rate is a couple points higher out of the bullpen (23% against 20.9%). He has been much better at avoiding free passes as a reliever, walking 7.1% of batters faced in that role compared to an 11.2% rate from the rotation.

Regardless of the slightly worse peripherals, it’s not outlandish to project Martinez as a viable starting pitcher. He has a far deeper repertoire than the typical reliever, turning to five pitches (sinker, changeup, curveball, cutter, four-seam fastball) with regularity. Martinez was effective this year in the few opportunities he received to turn an opposing lineup over a second or third time. He has held his own in unfavorable platoon situations, keeping left-handed batters to a reasonable .242/.322/.408 line since the start of 2022.

Martinez should get a look in Cincinnati’s Opening Day starting five. The Reds had one of the sport’s least effective rotations, finishing 28th in MLB (ahead of only the A’s and Rockies) with a 5.43 ERA. The rotation’s ineffectiveness was the single biggest reason for the team coming up a little shy of the postseason. Addressing the group was a clear priority for GM Nick Krall and his staff heading into the offseason.

Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott headline the in-house options. Nick Lodolo’s 2023 campaign was wrecked by left leg injuries, but he’ll surely have a rotation spot so long as he’s healthy. Graham Ashcraft projects as the #5 starter after overcoming a disastrous first half to turn in a 2.81 ERA from the All-Star Break onward. Brandon Williamson, who pitched to a 4.46 ERA over 117 innings as a rookie, would be the top depth option. Prospects Connor Phillips and Lyon Richardson each made brief big league appearances late in the year.

It’s not a group without talent, but no team can count on its top five or six starters staying healthy for an entire season. Greene and Lodolo have each missed extended chunks of action over the past two years. Abbott and Williamson have yet to play a full season at the MLB level. Martinez doesn’t have an extended track record of starting. The front office could still look for another arm to solidify the group. They’ve been linked to each of Tyler Glasnow and Shane Bieber on the trade front. Signing Martinez doesn’t necessarily take them out of that market.

Paired with Wednesday afternoon’s signing of reliever Emilio Pagán to a two-year, $16MM deal, this is the most active that Cincinnati has been in free agency for the past few seasons. As reflected on MLBTR’s contract tracker, the Reds hadn’t signed a free agent to a multi-year contract since adding Nick Castellanos on a four-year pact in January 2020. Where ownership sets the spending limit remains to be seen, but there should still be some financial flexibility.

Roster Resource projected the Reds’ 2024 payroll commitments in the $58MM range before the Martinez deal. If the money is evenly distributed — the contract’s specific financial breakdown remains unreported — it’d bring them around $71MM. The club opened the 2023 season with a player payroll approaching $83MM and was well above $100MM in the two preceding seasons.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

MLBTR Podcast: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Offseason Questions

By | at

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Could someone like Frankie Montas as a one-year rental bounce back and/or Brandon Woodruff coming off an injury be of interest to the Orioles as a starting pitcher? (15:25)
  • The Reds seemingly have a lot of payroll flexibility. However, I’ve been a Reds fan my whole life and I don’t want to set myself up for disappointment. Realistically, how much do you think they’ll spend? Has to be at least 35 to 40 million, right? Right? (19:10)
  • Farhan Zaidi and the Giants are once again claiming to be “all-in” on the free agent market. Do you think that players not wanting to play in San Francisco, for a variety of reasons, is a substantial factor in past and future failures to bring in star caliber talent? (27:25)
  • What would it take for the Mariners to sign Juan Soto to a long term contract if they can acquire him via trade? (33:55)

Check out our past episodes!

Mets, Joey Wendle Agree To Major League Deal

By | at

A few hours after agreeing to terms with Luis Severino, the Mets have added infield depth. New York is reportedly in agreement with Joey Wendle on a one-year, $2MM guarantee. The deal also contains performance bonuses for the Excel Sports Management client.

Wendle, 34 next April, has spent the last two years in the NL East as a member of the Marlins. His tenure with the Fish didn’t go as planned. Miami acquired the left-handed hitter from the Rays over the 2021-22 offseason. He’d had a solid four-year run in Tampa Bay, hitting .274/.330/.414 and earning an All-Star nod in his final season. Miami installed him as their primary third baseman for the ’22 season.

His offensive numbers took a sharp downward turn. Wendle hit .259/.297/.360 with only three home runs through 371 trips to the plate. Miami brought in Jean Segura to play third base last offseason but kept Wendle in the Opening Day lineup, kicking him up the defensive spectrum. After trading Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers, the Marlins turned to Wendle as their primary shortstop.

Wendle had an even tougher year. He hit .212/.248/.306 over 318 plate appearances. He connected on only two homers while his strikeout rate jumped from 13.5% to a nearly average 21.1% clip. Of the 293 hitters with 300+ trips to the plate, none had a lower on-base percentage than Wendle. His slugging mark was ninth-lowest among that group. The Fish stuck by Wendle as their primary shortstop, although he struggled significantly down the stretch. He hit .142/.176/.201 in the season’s second half.

To his credit, Wendle handled his more demanding defensive responsibilities. He logged a career-high 754 1/3 innings at shortstop, no small feat for a player in his age-33 season. Defensive Runs Saved rated him highly, estimating he was six runs above average at the position. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric was more bearish, grading him three runs below par.

Barring injury, Francisco Lindor will take almost every shortstop inning next season. Wendle can handle a utility role off the bench. Public defensive metrics have always graded Wendle highly at second base and pegged him as a solid defender at the hot corner. As a defense-first lefty hitter with the ability to handle multiple infield spots, he’s more or less a direct replacement for Luis Guillorme. The Mets non-tendered the latter two weeks ago.

A $2MM guarantee brings the Mets’ payroll projection around $276MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. Their competitive balance tax number jumps a little north of $289MM. New York is within the third tier of luxury penalization, roughly $8MM below the $297MM mark that represents the fourth and final tier. Given remaining needs on the pitching staff and in the corner outfield, they seem likely to surpass that threshold by the time the offseason concludes.

Since they’re presently in the third tier and have paid the luxury tax in each of the past two seasons, the Mets are charged a 95% rate on their expenditures. Adding Wendle comes with $1.9MM in taxes, bringing the total cost to $3.9MM. If/when they pass the $297MM figure, they’d be taxed at a staggering 110% rate on each additional dollar spent.

Andy Martino of SNY first reported the Mets were in discussions with Wendle. Robert Murray of FanSided was first to report an agreement had been reached. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the approximate $2MM base salary and the presence of unspecified performance bonuses. Joel Sherman of the New York Post pegged the guarantee at exactly $2MM.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Luis Severino, Mets Agree To One-Year Deal

By | at

The Mets are reportedly in agreement with free agent starter Luis Severino on a one-year, $13MM guarantee. The deal also includes $2MM in performance bonuses, the details of which are not publicly known. Severino is represented by Rep 1 Baseball.

Luis Severino |Brad Penner-USA TODAY SportsSeverino, 30 in February, is a wild card of this winter’s free agent market. He once looked like one of the best pitchers in the majors but has spent the past five years either injured or ineffective or both. He made 63 starts over 2017 and 2018, throwing 384 2/3 innings with a 3.18 earned run average. He punched out 28.8% of batters faced while walking just 6.2% of them and keeping 45.8% of balls in play on the ground. FanGraphs calculated him as worth 11 wins above replacement over that two-year span, trailing just four pitchers around the league: Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber.

He and the Yankees agreed to a four-year, $40MM extension prior to 2019, with that deal also having a $15MM option for 2023. But shortly after that deal was signed, he ran into health problems. He only made three starts in the first year of that deal due to shoulder and lat injuries, then Tommy John surgery kept him off the field entirely in 2020 and for most of 2021. More lat issues came in 2022, but he was at least able to make 19 starts and log 102 innings with a 3.18 ERA, followed by a couple of playoff starts.

That relatively healthy showing was enough for the Yankees to trigger the player option for 2023. Another lat strain prevented him from making his season debut until May and then an oblique strain in September ended his season early. In the middle of those IL stints, he tossed 89 1/3 innings but with an awful 6.65 ERA. He struck out just 18.9% of opponents, a huge drop from his 27.7% rate in 2022.

Severino averaged 96.5 mph on his fastball in 2023, a bit down from his 97.6 from 2018. It’s higher than his 96.3 mph average from 2022, when he was still effective. His slider had a bigger drop, averaging 84.6 mph in this year whereas it sat 88-89 prior to his injury troubles. But he was still getting good results in 2022 with a slider that averaged 85.1 mph.

Despite the rough season, some club was going to take a chance on Severino’s track record and hope for a bounceback with better health. MLBTR predicted Severino to secure a contract of one-year and $14MM. His guarantee is just beneath that but the bonuses could help him climb to the other side.

That the Mets are the club to take the chance on Severino makes plenty of sense, with reporting from a couple of weeks ago suggesting they were interested. Last year’s struggles led them to trade Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander ahead of the deadline. Then Carlos Carrasco reached free agency and David Peterson required hip surgery that will force him to miss the start of next season.

All of that left the Mets with a 2024 rotation consisting of Kodai Senga and José Quintana in two spots. They had some candidates to fill out the back end, such as Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto, but each of those guys can be optioned to the minors and make more sense as depth options than as part of the club’s Opening Day plans.

It’s still unclear exactly what kind of offseason the Mets are planning to have and this transaction won’t make that much clearer. The 2023 club had the highest payroll in baseball history but reporting from the deadline indicated that they may opt for a somewhat less-aggressive approach for 2024. But stepping back from unprecedented heights could still lead to plenty of activity, depending on the size of the step.

This deal is fairly modest by free agent standards but could always be paired with a larger move. For example, the Cardinals were looking for three starters this winter and started with one-year deals for Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson before a bigger three-year strike on Sonny Gray. Perhaps the Mets have a bigger move to come, having been connected to Yoshinobu Yamamoto. But time will tell if that kind of big strike is realistically in their plans.

For now, they’ve added a former star on a short-term deal. He could either help them return to contention or perhaps turn himself into a deadline trade chip. If he isn’t able to get back in good form, the Mets won’t have impacted their plans for competing in the long term.

In the short term, this seems like it will cost them more than the $13MM sticker price. According to Roster Resource, this move pushes the club’s competitive balance tax calculation to $288MM, well beyond next year’s base tax threshold of $237MM. The CBT features escalating penalties for paying in consecutive years and the Mets are set to be a third-time payor in 2024. That means they pay a 50% tax on all overages, 62% for spending over the $257MM line and 95% for going past the third line of $277MM. They could always shed salary somehow but they are already past the third line and not too far from the fourth line of $297MM, when their tax rate would jump to 110%. The tax isn’t calculated until the end of the season, so they could significantly alter all of these calculations between now and next fall, but it’s distinctly possible that they end up paying something close to double that $13MM figure that Severino will receive.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Severino was nearing agreement with the Mets. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the sides were finalizing a one-year, $13MM deal that included $2MM in bonuses.

Reds To Sign Emilio Pagan

By | at

The Reds are reportedly in agreement with free agent reliever Emilio Pagan on a two-year, $16MM guarantee. The deal consists of matching $8MM salaries and allows Pagan, a client of the Ballengee Group, to opt out after next season. It’s a strong deal for the righty, as the contract contains incentives to boost the total further and could allow him to seek a larger contract next winter if he enjoys a good first year in Cincinnati. The agreement is still pending a physical.

Cincinnati relievers combined for a 4.11 ERA that ranked 15th in the Majors and a 4.48 FIP that ranked 23rd in 2023. In general, it’s a thin and unproven group. Closer Alexis Diaz gives the Reds one high-end arm, and lefty Sam Moll proved to be a quietly strong deadline pickup.

Beyond that, the Reds lacked established, healthy arms. Righty Tejay Antone has been one of the game’s top-performing bullpen arms when healthy, but he missed the entire 2022 season following Tommy John surgery and lasted just 5 2/3 innings in 2023 before departing a September game due to elbow discomfort that proved to be season-ending. Lucas Sims posted a stout 3.10 ERA with a strong strikeout rate in 2023 but also walked more than 15% of his opponents. Waiver pickup Ian Gibaut had a nice season (3.33 ERA), but that was the 30-year-old’s first extended run of MLB success.

Adding some stability makes sense, though the 32-year-old Pagan (33 in May) has something of a rollercoaster track record. In seven big league seasons, Pagan has pitched for five teams. At times, he’s looked the part of a bona fide late-inning force, such as his 2019 season when he saved 20 games for the Rays while logging a 2.31 ERA, 36% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate. At other times, Pagan has been far too hittable and displayed below-average command. From 2020-22 with the Padres and Twins, he logged a combined 4.61 ERA with a walk rate nearly double that of his excellent ’19 campaign.

Most recently, Pagan gave the 2023 Twins 69 1/3 innings of 2.99 ERA ball, fanning a solid 23.8% of his opponents against a better-than-average 7.7% walk rate. He averaged nearly 96 mph on his heater and continued career-long trends of inducing both swinging strikes and chases on pitches off the plate at above-average clips. However, Pagan’s rocky 2022 showing in Minnesota pushed him down the bullpen hierarchy; after struggling as a closer and setup man in ’22, he was used in the middle innings and lower-leverage spots this past season.

It’s at least a moderate surprise to see the Reds, in particular, wind up signing Pagan, given that the primary knock against him throughout his career has been a susceptibility to home runs. That doesn’t seem to pair well with Cincinnati’s homer-happy Great American Ball Park, although to Pagan’s credit, he averaged a career-low 0.65 homers per nine frames this past season.

Still, entering the 2023 campaign, Pagan had yielded an average of 1.74 homers per nine innings. Among the 1080 relief pitchers to throw at least 250 career innings since way back in the 1800s, that was the highest rate of any pitcher (hat tip to The Atheltic’s Aaron Gleeman for pointing that out back in 2022). Generally, relievers who give up home runs at such a lofty rate just haven’t stuck around long enough to compile a meaningful number of innings at the MLB level.

The Reds are surely confident in their ability to help Pagan continue his newfound ability to mitigate round-trippers, but if his prior home run tendencies return, his new home confines in Cincinnati would likely only shine a spotlight on that problematic history. If he can keep curtailing the long ball, however, he gives the Reds a hard-throwing righty with late-inning experience who could help serve as a bridge to Diaz at the end of the game. Pagan has fanned 28.1% of his career opponents against a sharp 7% walk rate, and he boasts a very strong 14.1% swinging-strike rate in exactly 400 MLB innings.

In terms of payroll, the Reds will have no problem fitting Pagan (or just about any free agent, for that matter) onto the books. Now that Joey Votto is a free agent, the Reds’ only guaranteed contracts had belonged to Hunter Greene and backup catcher Luke Maile, who’ll earn a combined $6MM in 2024. Add in MLBTR’s projected salaries for their six eligible players — one of whom, Jonathan India, is a trade candidate — and a host of pre-arb names to round out the club, and Roster Resource projects a payroll just south of $59MM after accounting for the Pagan deal. And with Maile on a one-year deal, Pagan and Greene are (at least for now) the only players on guaranteed deals for the 2025 campaign.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the Reds had expressed interest in Pagan. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the Reds and Pagan had agreed to a two-year deal. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the $16MM guarantee and the opt-out possibility. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the even salary breakdown.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrowsFOX Sports Engage Network scroll to top