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Quick Hits: Maxwell, Nats, Marwin, Twins, Herrera, Cubs, DeRosa

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Free-agent catcher Bruce Maxwell hasn’t found a team since the Athletics outrighted him in September, and it doesn’t appear that’s going to change in the near future, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle explains. While Maxwell was arrested on a gun charge in 2017 and later pleaded guilty to disorderly conduct, he’s unemployed for a different reason, a major league executive told Slusser at the Winter Meetings.

“It’s the kneeling thing that might keep him from getting another job, not the arrest. Owners aren’t going to want to deal with that whole anthem issue,” the executive said of Maxwell, who in 2017 became the first and only major leaguer to kneel for the national anthem in protest of racial injustice.

Conversely, another source contended to Slusser that Maxwell’s not comparable to former 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who began kneeling for the national anthem in 2016. Despite a respectable on-field career and a clean off-field record, Kaepernick, 31, has been out of the NFL for two seasons. “This is not a Colin Kaepernick situation,” said the source. “This is if Colin Kaepernick had knelt for the anthem and also been arrested for a gun crime.”

Aside from Maxwell’s arrest, there are concerns over a 2017 incident in an Alabama restaurant, per Slusser, who also notes that the 27-year-old showed up overweight to spring training last season. Both Maxwell’s conditioning issues and a poor spring performance helped ruin his once-decent chance of becoming the A’s starting catcher in 2018. He ended up having a miserable season at the Triple-A level, and has since fired agent Matt Sosnick. As Slusser details, Sosnick reached out to every team multiple times trying to score a minor league deal for Maxwell, but no one bit. Slusser’s piece is worth checking out for Sosnick’s quotes on his ex-client.

More from around the majors…

  • The Nationals have shown reported interest in free-agent infielder Josh Harrison, though they “seem to prefer” Marwin Gonzalez to him, Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post writes. Most (if not all) teams would take Gonzalez over Harrison, which is why the former figures to rake in an especially lucrative payday this offseason. Nevertheless, this is the first connection of the offseason between the Nationals and Gonzalez, who can play up to six positions but could be their solution at second base. He’d also give the Nationals yet another Scott Boras client.
  • The Twins have interest in free-agent reliever Kelvin Herrera, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports. The club knows Herrera well from his days with division-rival Kansas City, where he pitched from 2011 until the Royals traded him to Washington last June. The hard-throwing 28-year-old didn’t perform well with the Nats, though, and then saw his season end in late August on account of a torn Lisfranc ligament in his left foot. However, Herrera’s progressing in his recovery from that injury.
  • With bench coach Brandon Hyde seemingly on his way out of the organization, the Cubs have begun seeking a replacement. It doesn’t appear the job will go to beloved ex-Cub David Ross, who’s content working as both a special assistant to their front office and an ESPN analyst, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score suggests. The team has contacted former major league infielder/outfielder and current MLB Network analyst Mark DeRosa to gauge his interest in the job, according to Levine. If there’s not a match between the Cubs and DeRosa – who declined to interview for the Rangers’ managerial post after the season – Dodgers special advisor Raul Ibanez and two of the Cubs’ minor league skippers (Buddy Bailey and Mark Johnson) could be candidates, Levine posits.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/13/18

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Here are Thursday’s minor moves from around baseball:

  • The Yakult Swallows of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have signed righty Albert Suarez to an undisclosed deal, the Japan Times reports. The 29-year-old Suarez saw big league action with the Giants from 2016-17, a 115 2/3-inning span in which he pitched to a 4.51 ERA with 6.85 K/9, 2.88 BB/9 and a 47.3 percent groundball rate across 40 appearances (12 starts). The Diamondbacks then took Suarez 14th in last year’s Rule 5 draft, only to outright him in late March. Because Suarez had been outrighted in the past, the Diamondbacks didn’t have to offer him back to the Giants. Suarez ended up spending the year with the D-backs’ Triple-A affiliate and struggling to a 4.97 ERA with 7.2 K/9 against 4.7 BB/9 over 63 1/3 innings.

Earlier updates:

  • The Padres have re-signed outfielder Alex Dickerson to a minor league contract, the team announced. The 28-year-old Dickerson accrued 293 plate appearances with the Padres from 2015-16 and hit a solid .257/.331/.448 with 10 home runs and five stolen bases, but injuries have derailed his career since then. He missed all of the 2017 season while dealing with back issues and then sat out last year after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his left (throwing) elbow in March. A third-round pick of the Pirates in 2011, the Padres originally acquired Dickerson for Miles Mikolas and Jaff Decker in November 2011.
  • The Tigers have signed right-handers Chris Smith and Eduardo Paredes to minor league deals, according to Robert Murray of The Athletic and Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. The 30-year-old Smith has only picked up five big league innings – with the Blue Jays in 2017. He spent last season with the Nationals’ Triple-A club and notched a 3.93 ERA/3.88 FIP with 10.64 K/9 and 3.44 BB/9 in 55 frames. The Angels outrighted the 23-year-old Paredes last month, ending a run with the organization that began in 2012. Paredes saw some major league action with the Halos from 2017-18 and posted a 5.53 ERA/5.08 FIP with 7.08 K/9 and 2.88 BB/9 over 40 2/3 innings. He was more successful the past two years at Triple-A, where he put up a 3.86 ERA with 8.3 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9 in 79 1/3 frames.
  • The Cubs have acquired left-hander Conor Lillis-White from the Angels to complete the teams’ Tommy La Stella trade, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets. Lillis-White, 26, was a a 32nd-round pick of the Angels in 2015 who divided last season between the Double-A and Triple-A levels, combining for a 3.50 ERA with 12.3 K/9 against 4.0 BB/9 in 72 innings.

AL News & Rumors: Dipoto, Yanks, A. Miller, Sonny, A’s, Lucroy, BoSox

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We checked in on the American League earlier Thursday evening. Here’s even more from the Junior Circuit:

  • Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto pulled off his latest blockbuster trade Thursday, though he did it from a hospital bed. It turns out Dipoto was dealing with “severe chest pains” stemming from blood clots in his lungs, Greg Johns of MLB.com reports. Fortunately, Dipoto was released from a Las Vegas-area hospital Thursday afternoon and cleared to fly back to Seattle. “It was pretty scary and quite painful stuff,” Dipoto told Johns via text. “I’m thankful to know there’s an issue while we can manage it.” MLBTR joins those around the game in wishing the always entertaining Dipoto a speedy recovery.
  • Along with the previously reported Adam Ottavino, the Yankees met with free-agent reliever Andrew Miller’s camp during the Winter Meetings, according to Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. In his previous trip to free agency, back in 2014, Miller signed with the Yankees on a four-year, $36MM contract. Miller then proceeded to dominate out of New York’s bullpen until the team traded him to Cleveland in July 2016. While Miller continued to post elite production through 2017, he looked like a mere mortal last season during an injury-shortened campaign. Still, MLBTR expects the 33-year-old to pull in another lofty payday this winter. Perhaps he’ll return to his old stomping grounds in the Bronx to get it.
  • The Athletics and free-agent catcher Jonathan Lucroy “appear to be at a salary impasse,” Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. Lucroy spent last season in Oakland after inking a one-year, $6.5MM deal in mid-March, and though the former star drew rave reviews from his teammates, he didn’t acquit himself well statistically. The 32-year-old batted a career-worst .241/.291/.325 (70 wRC+) in 454 plate appearances and, among hitters with at least 450 PAs, recorded the majors’ fifth-lowest ISO (.084). The once-marvelous defender also struggled behind the plate.
  • Turning to the Athletics’ pursuit of rotation help, Slusser hears that they’re “bottom feeders” on the pitching market, though she points out that they’re known for exercising patience and finding diamonds in the rough. The team’s not averse to doling out multiyear deals for free-agent pitchers, per GM David Forst. On the trade front, Slusser casts doubt on a potential Sonny Gray-Athletics reunion, reporting that the Yankees’ asking price for him is currently too lofty for the A’s liking.
  • Reliever Joe Kelly agreed to a three-year, $25MM deal with the Dodgers on Thursday, but his previous employer in Boston didn’t make a particularly competitive offer to retain him, Rob Bradford of WEEI suggests. Not only did the Red Sox only propose a two-year contract, but the average annual value likely didn’t match what the Dodgers will give Kelly, according to Bradford. That jibes with a previous report suggesting the Red Sox are waiting for relievers’ prices to drop before committing to anyone.

NL Rumors: Realmuto, Mets, Marlins, Pads, Myers, Bucs, D-backs, Rendon

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The Mets’ ongoing pursuit of Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto has dominated headlines this week, and Tim Healey of Newsday sheds more light on the teams’ talks. While the Marlins are interested in all three of Amed Rosario, Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto and reportedly want more than one of those players for Realmuto, it doesn’t seem that’s going to happen, per Healey. Rather, only one member of that trio – likely Nimmo or Conforto – would headline Miami’s return, according to Healey, who adds that the Marlins also like Mets infield prospects Andres Gimenez, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos. All three of those players rank among the Mets’ top prospects, with MLB.com placing Gimenez first, Mauricio sixth and Vientos eighth.

  • Whether via trade or free agency, the Padres will “absolutely” acquire a third baseman this offseason, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com relays. Picking up hot corner help is the club’s No. 1 priority, Cassavell offers, as corner infielder/outfielder Wil Myers isn’t an ideal fit there, main 2018 starter Christian Villanueva immigrated to Japan and the Padres released Cory Spangenberg. But if Myers isn’t going to play third, it further calls into question what the Padres will do with him this offseason. San Diego is committed to Eric Hosmer at first base and has a host of of other outfielders, after all, and Myers has come up in recent trade speculation. However, despite Myers’ so-so production from 2017-18 and the remaining $64MM on his contract, it seems the Padres remain bullish on him. Indeed, they’re not going to trade Myers for anything but “the right offer,” Cassavell notes. His presence may make one or more of his fellow Padres outfielders expendable, though Cassavell suggests it’s no sure thing they’ll trade anyone from the group.
  • Having lost Jordy Mercer in free agency, the Pirates have spoken to the Diamondbacks about shortstop Nick Ahmed this week, Adam Berry of MLB.com reports. The defensively adept Ahmed, 28, is coming off a career-best offensive season, albeit one in which he still hit just .234/.290/.411 (84 wRC+) in 564 plate appearances. He’s under control for two more years and will make a projected $3.1MM in 2019. That would be an affordable sum for Pittsburgh, but Berry explains that the team’s content to roll with in-house shortops Erik Gonzalez and Kevin Newman if it doesn’t land Ahmed or another veteran option.
  • It’s well-documented that the Nationals could lose one of their elite players, outfielder Bryce Harper, to free agency this year. And the team may be in a similar position 12 months from now if third baseman Anthony Rendon, who’s entering a contract year, doesn’t sign an extension. However, general manager Mike Rizzo is optimistic the Nationals will prevent Rendon from leaving, Jamal Collier of MLB.com writes. “I think Anthony wants to be here, I think he wants to be here long term,” Rizzo said. “And we want him here. Hopefully there’s a deal that transpires out of goodwill between the two sides.” According to agent Scott Boras (also Harper’s representative), Washington’s “very aware” of what it has in Rendon, who has “been in the top 10 players in the game in the last three or four years.” Boras is always one to talk up his clients, but he’s not exaggerating in Rendon’s case, as the 28-year-old ranks seventh among position players in fWAR (17.3) dating back to 2016.

AL Notes: A’s, Tulo, Lowrie, Astros, BoSox, O’s

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The latest on a few American League clubs…

  • The Athletics have come up as a speculative fit for free-agent shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, but the two sides haven’t spoken to this point, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. If signed, Tulowitzki could be a factor at the keystone for Oakland, which may see starting second baseman Jed Lowrie depart in free agency. As of now, it appears “unlikely” the Athletics will re-sign Lowrie, Jane Lee of MLB.com writes. Lowrie would be a tough loss for the A’s, considering he was one of the majors’ most valuable second basemen from 2017-18.
  • Meanwhile, despite potentially losing Tony Sipp in free agency, the division-rival Astros aren’t likely to shop at the top of the market for left-handed relievers, per Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (subscription required). Rather, the Astros seem “comfortable” with a pair of in-house southpaws – Framber Valdez and Cionel Perez – as well as a cast of righty relievers who are capable of getting lefty hitters out. It’s not clear whether Brad Peacock will remain among that group of righties in 2019, though, as Kaplan relays that he’ll enter spring training as a starter. Peacock made 21 starts two years ago, but that number plummeted to one in 2018, when he came out of the Astros’ bullpen 60 times.
  • The Red Sox lost Joe Kelly to the Dodgers in free agency and are also in danger of bidding adieu to Craig Kimbrel, but it doesn’t seem they’re urgently searching for relief help. Instead, the reigning World Series champions are planning to “wait out” the market until a reliever falls to them for a palatable cost, Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports. That makes it seem even less likely they’ll re-sign Kimbrel, whose reported asking price is exorbitant, though Drellich hasn’t closed the door on the two sides continuing their union.
  • Although they’re in a rebuild, the Orioles are “open to taking on a salary” in order to acquire outfield help, according to Joe Trezza of MLB.com. The O’s sought outfielders throughout the Winter Meetings, Trezza adds. With 0.1 fWAR, the team’s outfield finished 29th in the majors in that department last season, and its best regular – Adam Jones, who was below average in his own right – is now a free agent.

Angels Targeting Wilson Ramos, Interested In Yasmani Grandal

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6:43pm: The Angels have also shown interest in Yasmani Grandal, the top-ranked catcher in free agency, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times reports. Grandal, 30, spent the previous four seasons in LA as a member of the Dodgers. Because Grandal rejected the Dodgers’ qualifying offer after the season, signing him would cost the Angels their second-highest draft pick and $500K in international bonus pool space in 2019.

6:38pm: The Angels don’t have an established catcher on their roster, but that could change soon. Free agent Wilson Ramos has emerged as their main target on the open market, veteran reporter Jerry Crasnick tweets.

Ramos, whom MLBTR predicts will reel in a three-year, $36MM contract this winter, is coming off his best season since 2016, which ended prematurely when he suffered a torn ACL in his right knee. Although Ramos has now torn the ACL twice in that knee during his career, he has still enjoyed a respectable career.

Last season, which he divided between the Rays and Phillies, the 31-year-old Ramos slashed a terrific .306/.358/.487 (131 wRC+) with 15 home runs in 416 plate appearances. Defensively, Ramos threw out 29 percent of would-be base stealers, just beating out the 28 percent league average, and earned mediocre overall marks from Baseball Prospectus. Ramos has been a plus defender for most of his career, however, in BP’s estimation. Thanks to his all-around track record, Ramos – also a former Twin and National – has drawn reported interest from several other teams this offseason, including the Dodgers, Mets, Brewers, Athletics and his old club in Minnesota.

Ramos would easily be the most proven backstop in Anaheim, which has just two catchers, Kevan Smith and Jose Briceno, on its 40-man roster. The 30-year-old Smith did perform decently with the White Sox last season, but he only has 497 major league PAs to his name. Briceno, 26, was adequate during his debut with the Angels in 2018, though he has totaled a mere 128 major league PAs and hasn’t been much of an offensive threat in the minors. Of course, given that Ramos has combined for just 185 games since 2017 (including 96 behind the plate last year), it’s likely the Angels’ backup catcher – be it Smith or Briceno – would still garner a fair amount of playing time with him on the roster.

New York Notes: Yanks’ Infield, Gray, Kluber, Bauer, Mets

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With shortstop Didi Gregorius set to miss a large chunk of next season, the Yankees are reportedly in the market for the best infielder available, free agent Manny Machado. But in the event the team loses out on Machado, general manager Brian Cashman is casting a wide net in his search for infield help. “I’ve talked to [agent] Danny Lozano about Manny, I’ve talked to the agents for Freddy Galvis. I’ve talked to everybody, from high end to low end,” Cashman said (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). “This marketplace is deep on second basemen. I have a shortstop that we’re playing at second in Gleyber Torres, so how does this play out?” As Cashman implied, the Yankees could easily slide Torres to short to cover for Gregorius’ loss. In doing so, they’d perhaps be able to add one of the many veteran second basemen available in free agency, though no one from that group would move the needle nearly as much as Machado.

More from the Big Apple…

  • The Mets have picked up standout relievers Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia this offseason, but given the struggles of their bullpen in 2018, they could still use more late-game help – particularly from the left side. However, after the Mets agreed to a deal with Familia on Thursday, GM Brodie Van Wagenen “downplayed” the possibility of the club adding a high-profile southpaw, Mike Puma of the New York Post writes. It seems the Mets won’t be the next team for either Zach Britton or Andrew Miller, then, but Anthony DiComo of MLB.com points to Tony Sipp and familiar faces Jerry Blevins and Oliver Perez among potential targets for the club.
  • While the Yankees have now marketed Sonny Gray for quite some time, the club is still sifting through offers. “A bunch” of rivals remain interested, per AGM Michael Fishman, who tells Hoch (Twitter link) that some possible deal scenarios would involve major-league assets coming back in return. New York’s reportedly seeking “high-end” MLB talent for Gray, despite his subpar performance in 2018.
  • There’s no room anymore for Gray in New York, yet the Yankees could still pick up another starter this winter to join an already crowded staff that includes Luis Severino, James Paxton, J.A. Happ, Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia. With that said “it sounds like there’s little optimism” the Yankees will acquire Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer from the Indians, Marc Carig of The Athletic tweets. Either Kluber or Bauer would bring back a haul in return, and with a farm system that has taken some major hits via trades and prospect graduations in the past year, it doesn’t appear the Yankees will emerge from the offseason with either righty. Speculatively speaking, Yankees third baseman Miguel Andujar would make sense for the Indians after the latter traded Yandy Diaz on Thursday. However, while the Yankees are reportedly “open” to moving Andujar, giving him up would create another hole in their infield at the cost of improving a rotation which already has at least five viable options.

NL West Notes: Dodgers, Ramos, Rox, Smoak, Desmond, Pads, Profar

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The Dodgers reached out to free agent backstop Wilson Ramos with interest, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter). It seems, though, that the Dodgers are angling for a one-year pact, while Ramos is still seeking a multi-year contract. A single-year deal for Ramos appears unrealistic, given that he’s one of the two best catchers on the market – along with Dodgers free agent Yasmani Grandal – and is coming off an excellent offensive season. MLBTR predicts Ramos, 31, will receive a three-year, $36MM guarantee, which should put him out of the Dodgers’ reported range. Either way, with Austin Barnes as the only catcher who has significant major league experience on its roster, LA seems likely to add a backstop sometime this offseason. The club is reportedly among those still in the hunt for Marlins star J.T. Realmuto.

More on a few other NL West teams…

  • The Rockies have at least given internal consideration to pursuing Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak, according to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (Twitter link). It seems the Rox could also consider some free agent bats, with MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writing that Daniel Murphy, Neil Walker, and Logan Morrison are all on the club’s radar. Colorado received National League-worst production at first base last season, putting it in the market for help there. Smoak, meanwhile, put together his second straight solid offensive campaign. He’s due an affordable $8MM in 2019, and MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted in October that he’d make sense for the Rockies. Murphy, Walker and Morrison were less successful than Smoak in 2018, but they’ve experienced varying degrees of success and should come at affordable prices this winter. Further, both Murphy and Walker are versatile enough to line up at multiple positions.
  • More on the Rockies from Harding, who reports that right-hander Jon Gray and utiliyman Ian Desmond drew trade interest at the Winter Meetings. It’s no surprise teams inquired about Gray, a potential front-end starter with three years of control left, but there’s no word no whether the Rockies would consider dealing the 27-year-old. Desmond isn’t nearly as appealing, on the other hand, but “teams were receptive to discussing” him, Harding writes. Not only has the 33-year-old Desmond combined for minus-1.5 fWAR since 2017, but he’s still owed $40MM through 2021 (including a $2MM buyout of his $15MM club option for 2022).
  • The Padres are discussing a contract with shortstop Freddy Galvis, but it appears “unlikely” the two sides will reach an agreement, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports. Now a free agent, Galvis spent last season in San Diego after the team acquired him from Philadelphia last December for young right-hander Enyel De Los Santos, who’s now the Phillies’ ninth-ranked prospect at MLB.com. The 29-year-old Galvis posted below-average offensive numbers (.248/.299/.380, good for an 85 wRC+, in 656 plate appearances) and earned mixed reviews at short (seven DRS, minus-4.4 UZR).
  • Continuing with the Padres, they’ve reached out to the Rangers regarding infielder Jurickson Profar, but the chances of a deal happening are “faint,” Dennis Lin of The Athletic relays (subscription required). Padres general manager A.J. Preller is a fan of Profar from his days as an executive with the Rangers. However, he’s not having much luck prying the 25-year-old Profar and his two remaining seasons of team control from Texas.

MLBTR Poll: How Much Will Dallas Keuchel Earn In Free Agency?

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The starting pitching market is off to a rather solid start, even if the movement hasn’t exactly been fast and furious. Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi topped MLBTR’s predicted contract values, J.A. Happ and Charlie Morton appear to be landing in range of their own anticipated prices, and Lance Lynn scored a surprising three-year pact.

We’ve seen former Astros lefty linked to a variety of teams, but his market has not been as hot as those of some other hurlers. Multiple reports have the Reds and Phillies in the mix. The Blue Jays are involved, though it’s fair to wonder to what extent. The Braves have been connected, and disconnected. It’s certainly not hard to imagine some other clubs with interest, though we clearly haven’t seen a bidding war develop to this point.

Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Keuchel would secure a four-year, $82MM deal, with the bet being that teams would be willing to promise him a significant AAV but not a terribly long term entering his age-31 campaign. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs pegged the value just a shade higher than we did, at 4/$84MM .Others were somewhat more bullish, with Fancred’s Jon Heyman and his anonymous expert predicting a five-year pact in the $95MM to $105MM range.

Given how the market has developed to this point, what do you expect? Will Keuchel find himself frozen out of the biggest contracts? Do the early signings set the stage for a big payday? Or, perhaps, is he still on track to land where MLBTR guessed at the start of the offseason? (Response order randomized. Link for app users.)

Projecting Payrolls: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Winter Meetings are now in full swing, so it’s time to keep this ball rolling and move on to our 11th team. Here are links to the previous team payroll projections:

Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox
Minnesota Twins
Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants

If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.

Today, we look into a club who has missed the playoffs for three consecutive years for the first time since the 1990s and has already made (possibly) its biggest offseason splash: the St. Louis Cardinals.

Team Leadership

After over 40 years of Anheuser-Busch ownership, the Cardinals were sold to former St. Louis Browns bat boy and American businessman Bill DeWitt Jr. in 1995. DeWitt has maintained ownership of the club since that time, involving his family in the management thereof. DeWitt’s son, Bill DeWitt III, is has been team president for the past decade. St. Louis missed the playoffs each year from 1988-95, a seven-year postseason drought (nobody made the playoffs in 1994), and they made the playoffs only once during the first five years of DeWitt ownership from 1995-99, reaching the National League Championship Series in 1996. Beginning with the 2000 season, however, St. Louis has made 12 postseason visits while missing out on the tournament only seven times, a remarkable run of success.

The front office is lead by President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak. Mozeliak joined the Cardinals organization in 1996 as a scouting assistant and climbed the ladder, finally becoming General Manager in October 2007 before ascending to his current post in June 2017. In a move that coincided with Mozeliak’s ascension, Mike Girsch was named General Manager.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Cardinals, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. This period covers a time of tremendous success for the Cardinals. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

St. Louis spending was largely unchanged for the latter half of the past decade, sticking just south of $100 million each year from 2005-10 before finally crossing the threshold in 2011. Nevertheless, spending didn’t take a big leap for the Cardinals until the rival Cubs emerged as a force in 2015, perhaps fueling a payroll surge in 2016 that hasn’t subsided.

Despite this increased Major League spending, the Cardinals have never paid the luxury tax, nor have they been players for the most significant international free agents. Their laudable ability to develop talent internally has enabled them to eschew massive spending or risk taking in their pursuit of wins.

Future Liabilities

The Cardinals have something of an all-in approach for 2019. See below.

There are some big-money salaries on here, but most of the Cardinals’ commitments are in the form of mid-market deals for relatively short periods of time, many of which expire or feature options for the 2020 season.

Nevertheless, the team’s best hitter, the newly-acquired Paul Goldschmidt, and their best pitcher, the recently-acquired Miles Mikolas, both figure to get massive raises when they hit free agency in 11 months. If both players produce as stars, the club will either make a big play to keep one or both or they’ll enjoy the compensation draft picks that come along with having a pair of free agents decline qualifying offers and sign elsewhere.

The multi-year commitment to franchise icons Molina and Martinez look like good investments. Molina figures to spend his entire career in St. Louis. His 2017 extension all but ensured that. His top-level defense renders this deal a fine use of cash, albeit not the most efficient one. Martinez struggled with injuries in 2018, but he has consistently pitched as an ace, comes at bargain prices thanks to his 2017 extension, and is still, incredibly, just 27 years old.

Contrarily, the multi-year commitment to Fowler looks like a bad one. The former Cub enjoyed a strong year with his bat in 2017, but 2018 was an unmitigated disaster as Fowler failed to get on bad or hit the ball with authority. For a player with a lengthy injury history, he also missed substantial time with a foot injury. He is rapidly nearing pumpkin territory.

The Cardinals feature a trio of players with club options for the 2020 season that are auditioning for that payday. Carpenter is overwhelmingly likely to have his option exercised as the offensive force with defensive versatility fits on every team. Gyorko has recovered nicely after arriving in St. Louis after bottoming out post-extension in San Diego, but his option is a coin flip at best. Gregerson washed out in 2018 with shoulder issues, but a strong 2019 that shows a return to his 2009-16 success could change the script.

Cecil largely provided the desired results after arriving in 2017, but he flopped in 2018, struggling with homers and especially walks. At 32 and having lost two miles per hour on his pitches across the board, he could be dead weight for the club absent a surprising rebound.

One more franchise icon, Wainwright returns for a last hurrah in 2019 on an incentive-laden deal that contemplates a starting or relieving role. Regardless of who he has left in the tank, he won’t cost the club much.

Finally, there are a pair of extensions for athletic middle infielders. Wong came with a first-round pedigree, but his bat has never fully justified that history, save for a strong BABIP season in 2017. His glove and wheels, however, have rendered him a solid regular. DeJong, on the other hand, the 131st pick in the 2015 draft, positively exploded onto the scene in 2017 and showed that it was no fluke with a strong repeat performance in 2018, albeit one that was based more on his glove than his offensive prowess. Nevertheless, DeJong appears to be a league-average bat with legitimate defensive chops at shortstop.

Finally, we hit the dead money. Like so many clubs in the last decade, the Cardinals featured deferred money in big-money deals for Holliday and Pujols, owing the pair $2.6 million annually throughout the 2020s. That’s not backbreaking money, but it’s more than nothing.

As with the Giants before them, given this amount of guaranteed money, it is perhaps unsurprising that the Cardinals have very little in the way of arbitration eligible talent. Ozuna is the big fish with a seat at the arbitration table as he makes his final trip through the process in advance of free agency next winter. Here are their arbitration projections, noting that Chasen Shreve has already come to an agreement at $900,000, a bit below that projected by MLBTR and Matt Swartz:

In addition to Ozuna, Wacha figures to play a key role despite having lost much of 2018 to a lingering oblique injury.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

The Cardinals are talking like an organization ready to push in a whole bunch of chips on the 2019 table, with Mozeliak stating at the Winter Meetings that “simply, we realize the importance of 2019.”

DeWitt turned things up a notch last month, explaining that “there is value in star players” and adding that “we’re aggressive and we’ve got resources to deploy if the right situation emerges.” Incredibly, DeWitt even specifically addressed spending on free agents when commenting about his desire to build a team that perennially wins 90 games, offering up that “frankly, we felt that incremental benefit (of free agents) could get us those last few wins.”

This is not an organization that seems content to watch the Cubs and Brewers rule the National League Central for the next few years.

Are the Cardinals a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

No matter what you hear elsewhere, the answer here is simple: absolutely yes.

Although the Cardinals haven’t signed a player to a contract larger than Matt Holliday’s seven-year, $120 million pact, they made competitive offers for Jason Heyward and David Price approaching $200 million each while agreeing to take on over $250 million for Giancarlo Stanton before he ended up in the Bronx last winter. The team hasn’t shied away from monster offers.

As for their roster, even after shipping out Luke Weaver in the Goldschmidt trade, St. Louis is dripping with cheap, controllable pitching behind Mikolas, Wainwright, and Wacha in the form of Martinez, Jack Flaherty, super-prospect Alex Reyes (despite his injuries), and Dakota Hudson, and that’s before factoring in John Gant’s surprising 2018 season. They don’t really need starting pitching help.

The team is loaded up with right-handed bats featuring good-to-great power in Goldschmidt, Ozuna, DeJong, Molina, and defensively-homeless Jose Martinez. Harper would provide an awfully attractive complement in the middle of that order. I’m not sure if Machado fits as smoothly, but Harper sure does.

Watch out for St. Louis on Harper. They make a ton of sense.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

The Cardinals will almost certainly avoid reaching taxpayer status in 2019. They’ve never shown a penchant to spend to that degree. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if spending received another boost based on the fact that the team has missed the playoffs for three straight years and given the amount of resources poured into the Goldschmidt and Ozuna acquisitions.

As currently constructed, St. Louis has a payroll of just $148.7 million, $149.3 million for luxury tax purposes. Given historical trends and the pressure to win now, I expect to see a notable one-year jump in spending before the team regroups for 2020 with Mikolas, Ozuna, and Goldschmidt all hitting free agency at the same time.

If spending spikes to $180 million, the team would have $31.3 million of space, nearly enough to sign Harper without any other roster maneuvering. I don’t think that things will get quite that lofty, but even a bit below that figure, there’s enough space for the team to make a relatively simple move — like trading Gyorko for salary relief with the third baseman displaced by Carpenter’s move back across the diamond — to clear space for Harper.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $175 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $26.3 million

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