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Bryce Harper Rumors: Thursday

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Now that Manny Machado’s 10-year, $300MM deal with the Padres has been announced, Bryce Harper and agent Scott Boras have a definitive bar to attempt to clear as they seek a record-setting contract of their own. Yesterday’s slate of rumors on Harper had a series of updates on how the Phillies, Nats, White Sox and Giants view the former NL MVP now that Machado is off the board. Here’s a look at the latest chatter on “Harper’s Bazaar” as the long, drawn-out saga inches toward a resolution…

  • MLB.com’s Jon Morosi joined Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area for Pavlovic’s latest Giants Insider podcast (audio link; Harper talk beginning around 12:45), wherein Morosi called an 11-year contract for Harper “very possible.” As others have done before him, Morosi suggested that Harper is expected to receive a larger contract than the one Machado received in San Diego.
  • Coming away from their pursuit of Machado empty-handed has “heightened” the Phillies’ pursuit of Harper, writes Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Breen writes that the organization is confident it’ll be able to sign the six-time All-Star, adding that the Phils “will be much more reluctant to walk away this time.” General manager Matt Klentak spoke candidly this week about the fact that Machado’s price point simply got to a point that exceeded the team’s valuation of Machado. It’s not clear whether the organization will take a similarly practical approach to Harper in the end, but Breen notes that the front office and ownership are keenly aware of how the public would perceive a scenario in which the Phillies fail to sign either Harper or Machado.
  • Padres ownership will meet tomorrow to determine if it is feasible to make a run at signing Harper in addition to signing Machado, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. As one would expect, Heyman notes that such a scenario is not at all considered likely, but it seems that the organization’s partners will at least perform due diligence and see if such a strategy can be pieced together. Heyman further tweets that for the Nationals, the ultimate call on Harper will come down to Ted Lerner (despite the fact that in 2018, Lerner ceded control of the organization to his son, Mark). The elder Lerner’s relationship with Boras is well-documented, though virtually every report out of D.C. over the past several weeks has suggested that the Nationals won’t be a top bidder for Harper.
  • Bruce Levine of 670 The Score / CBS Chicago reports that the White Sox will not bid on Harper, echoing similar sentiments reported by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale yesterday. Levine notes that the organization is quite high on some of its outfield prospects, noting that the ChiSox could make a short-term pickup in the outfield to help bridge the gap to that young talent.

Nick Cafardo Passes Away

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Longtime Boston Globe baseball writer and reporter Nick Cafardo passed away suddenly today at the age of 62. A veteran sportswriter of more than three decades, Cafardo was among the most recognizable and respected voices in the industry. The Red Sox organization issued a statement on the unexpected, tragic loss:

We are saddened by the sudden loss of long-time baseball reporter, Nick Cafardo. For over three decades, Nick was a fixture at Fenway Park and throughout ballparks across the country. His coverage was as consistent as the game itself.  His opinions on the Red Sox and the most pressing issues facing Major League Baseball were a constant, particularly through the prominent Sunday baseball notes column in the Boston Globe. The Cafardo family will always be a part of the Boston baseball family, and the Red Sox will honor Nick’s legacy at the appropriate time.

John Tomase of WEEI, longtime Globe colleague Dan Shaughnessy and the MLB Network are among the many who’ve put together touching tributes honoring the memory of one of the industry’s most recognizable authors. We at MLBTR offer our deepest condolences to the family and close friends of Cafardo, and also to the countless readers for whom his excellent coverage had become essential reading over the years.

Mets Notes: deGrom, Lowrie, Catchers

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Agents Jeff Berry and Matt Ricatto of CAA Baseball are in Port St. Lucie and will meet with the Mets regarding Jacob deGrom’s contract status, Newsday’s Tim Healey reports. As Healey notes, it’s routine for agents to pay quick visits to MLB camps to check in with their clients and with organizational decision-makers, though the very public nature of deGrom’s extension candidacy makes this particular visit more intriguing. Certainly, a long-term deal for a pitcher of deGrom’s caliber isn’t something that’d be hammered out in a matter of hours, but this week’s visit could potentially help to lay some groundwork for negotiations that would carry on throughout Spring Training. Last week, deGrom indicated that talks had not yet gotten off the ground, and a few days prior to that, it was reported that his camp has placed an Opening Day deadline on getting a deal finished.

Here’s more out of Queens…

  • The Mets received good news following Jed Lowrie’s recent MRI, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post. Lowrie underwent the test after experiencing some discomfort in the back of his knee earlier this week, but the MRI did not reveal any significant damage. The veteran will be brought along slowly early in camp, Puma notes, although at this point it seems there’s no longer much cause for concern. The 34-year-old (35 in April) inked a two-year, $20MM pact with the Mets this offseason on the heels of a terrific 2018 campaign in which he batted .267/.353/.448 with 23 home runs and 37 doubles in 680 plate appearances with the A’s.
  • The Mets aren’t ruling out the possibility of carrying three catchers to open the season, manager Mickey Callaway tells Kevin Armstrong of the New York Times. Offseason signee Wilson Ramos, of course, is a lock to make the Opening Day roster as the team’s new primary option behind the dish, and Travis d’Arnaud seems quite likely to be in the mix as well, so long as his rehab from 2018 Tommy John surgery has adequately progressed. The other two options are 24-year-old Tomas Nido and veteran Devin Mesoraco, who returned to the Mets on a minor league deal this winter. As Callaway explains, Mesoraco’s relationship with deGrom was a huge factor in the organization’s decision to re-sign him; Mesoraco caught 21 of 25 deGrom starts last year after being acquired from the Reds. Callaway spoke with high praise of Mesoraco’s preparation and leadership, which had a positive influence on other catchers and throughout the pitching staff. Given d’Arnaud’s ability to play some first base and left field, carrying a pair of backup catcher options wouldn’t be as limiting as it would for other clubs. Nido, meanwhile, has a minor league option remaining, so he seems likely to be headed for Triple-A to open the year.

Padres Sign Manny Machado

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Feb. 21: The Padres have formally announced the signing and confirmed the terms of the contract (10 years, $300MM). To clear room on the 40-man roster, right-hander Dinelson Lamet was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Per Heyman, the deal will pay Machado $30MM annually and contain a six-team no-trade clause (Twitter links). Technically, the first season of the deal is paid out in the form of a $10MM salary and a $20MM signing bonus — that latter of which is not subject to the same level of taxation as Machado’s actual salary. Machado will play third base in San Diego.

Feb. 19, 10:20pm: Machado’s deal doesn’t contain any deferred money, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.

6:23pm: Machado’s deal will contain limited no-trade protection, Passan tweets. The contract should be formally announced Thursday or Friday, he adds.

12:58pm: There are some key elements of the deal still to be worked out, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Notably, the sides have yet to hammer out terms on trade protection. That said, it seems the final pieces are not expected to pose an obstacle to the contract’s completion. Machado will receive the $300MM on a fairly evenly spread basis, with the opt-out chance midway through the deal.

11:27am: The Padres have agreed to terms on a free agent contract with star infielder Manny Machado, according to ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). It’s a ten-year, $300MM deal for the MVP Sports Group client, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). The contract includes an opt-out after the fifth season, per Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link).

Nothing is formally concluded here, it bears noting. If nothing else, it seems a physical will still need to be completed. Padres chairman Ron Fowler says a deal is not complete, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (via Twitter), saying the sides are “continuing discussions.” Of course, that hardly means there isn’t an agreement in principle on the key terms.

Certainly, the White Sox believe they’ve lost their primary winter target. VP Kenny Williams expressed shock in comments to reporters. “We could not go to that $300MM level,” he said (via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, Twitter links). Williams indicated that he had believed the South Siders were the high bidders, and he maintains “there was more potential for him to make more here than that reported deal.” It seems, though, that Machado preferred the greater guaranteed money and other elements of his new deal to the structure proposed by a White Sox organization that had rolled out quite a welcome mat, including the acquisition of Machado’s comrades Yonder Alonso and Jon Jay.

It’s a stunning result for the 26-year-old Machado, whose long-running open-market saga has coincided with that of fellow star Bryce Harper. It took some time, but Machado will still spend the bulk of Spring Training with his new teammates.

Last year, the Friars shocked the baseball world by outbidding the market for first baseman Eric Hosmer. Now, they’ve followed up that move with a much bigger commitment to an even better and younger player.

The move plainly sets the Padres organization on a course to compete in the near-term, though the investment will hopefully coincide with a rather lengthy competitive window. It’s reasonable to wonder, though, whether this move sets the stage for further action this winter. The Padres have a fairly crowded outfield group, a ton of top prospect talent, and clear room to improve the MLB pitching staff. They could consider pursuing the top remaining open-market pitchers (Craig Kimbrel, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez) while revisiting trade talks on other starters.

[RELATED: MLBTR Free Agent Tracker]

It’s not hard to see how this signing could have a ripple effect in the market, with the potential for a highly intriguing late-spring reignition of the hot stove. If nothing else, there’s now a clear mark for Harper to try to top, with several teams potentially interested in landing him after missing on Machado.

The 10/300 price is precisely where many anticipated Machado landing at the outset of the market. It sets a free agent record in terms of total guarantee, at least before adjusting for inflation, though falls shy of Giancarlo Stanton’s extension and may soon be topped by Harper’s own deal.

Despite his excellence to this point of his career, and the promise of many more productive seasons to come, Machado entered the market with some questions. He raised eyebrows with some questionable acts and words during the postseason, leaving many fans — and perhaps some organizational leaders — with the sense that, as he himself put it, he’s “not the type of player that’s going to be ’Johnny Hustle.'”

Clearly, those oft-cited comments didn’t cost Machado a chance at a massive contract. He also picked up support of several former teammates and coaches, so it’s not as if there weren’t countervailing facts. Clearly, though, the ill-advised words didn’t help his cause. We’ll never know the full extent of the impact, but reduced interest from even a single potential suitor could have changed the way the market took shape. The Yankees never fully engaged despite making sense on paper, while it seems the Phillies passed on a chance to outbid the more budget-conscious Padres, though those and other organizations were surely weighing other factors as well.

In truth, the hustle chatter held such attention in no small part due to Machado’s otherwise mostly impeccable resume. He has topped 6 fWAR in three of the past four seasons, owing to a combination of outstanding glovework and well-rounded offensive production. Despite some knee issues earlier in his career, Machado has played all 162 games in two seasons (2015, 2018) and missed just 11 total contests in the two intervening campaigns.

Over his seven seasons in the majors, Machado carries a .282/.335/.487 batting line with 175 home runs. That perhaps understates his present ability with the bat, though, as Machado has posted 130+ wRC+ campaigns in three of the past four years and has hit between 33 and 37 long balls in all four seasons. He has also successfully honed his plate discipline over the years, setting career-best marks in 2018 with a 9.9% walk rate and 14.7% strikeout rate.

It’s a more interesting question on the defensive side of things. Machado had long graded as an outstanding defender at third base, but drew negative reviews upon shifting back to his native shortstop in 2018. Of course, the numbers reversed somewhat after he landed with the Dodgers in a mid-season trade, perhaps indicating that he still has the potential to handle short at an average or better clip if surrounded by the appropriate analytical resources and adjacent defenders.

Regardless, the plan seems to be for Machado to slide back to the hot corner in San Diego. The club has been searching for a piece there all winter long. Indications are that Luis Urias (with an assist from Greg Garcia) will keep the seat warm at shortstop while uber prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. finishes his development. Urias could ultimately slide back to second, though that position is occupied for the time being by veteran Ian Kinsler. Of course, as noted above, it still seems premature to guess at the overall roster picture, as the Padres could explore a nearly endless variety of complementary moves.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Injury Notes: Manaea, Kaprielian, Smith, Gibaut, Basabe

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The Athletics seem to be receiving more promising news on the pitching front, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle has reported (Twitter links). Southpaw Sean Manaea is said to be “well ahead” of schedule in his effort to return from shoulder surgery. Whether that means there’s real hope he’ll be able to make it back on the MLB mound this season isn’t clear, but it appears that’s at least a possibility given that Manaea is beginning to throw. Meanwhile, youngster James Kaprielian seems to be making a quick recovery from the lat issue that sidelined him at the outset of camp. The last thing anyone wanted to see was another significant health problem for him, so that’s certainly promising news.

More on the injury front …

  • Tigers righty Chris Smith appears headed for Tommy John surgery, as Evan Woodberry of MLive.com was among those to report on Twitter. It’s dreadful news for a hurler who has only briefly touched the majors but seemed to have a shot at earning a pen spot in Detroit. Smith pitched to a 3.93 ERA with 10.6 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 last year at the Triple-A level.
  • The Rays will likely go without righty Ian Gibaut to open the season, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. It seems the broader prognosis for his lat injury is a good one, but the club will likely take things slow with the 25-year-old hurler. Gibaut hasn’t yet thrown at the game’s highest level, but has generally torched minor-league hitters throughout his four seasons as a pro. Last year, he worked to a 2.09 ERA with 12.1 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 over 56 Triple-A frames.
  • Veteran utilityman Sean Rodriguez has a meniscus tear that may require surgery, per Matt Breen of Philly.com (Twitter link). That likely won’t make for a terribly lengthy absence, but obviously knocks out any chance of him breaking camp with the Phillies. Rodriguez could certainly still challenge for a job in Philadelphia or elsewhere after working back to health.
  • White Sox prospect Luis Alexander Basabe has a hamate fracture, as MLB.com’s Scott Merkin recently reported on Twitter. That’ll keep him from full game action for about three months, according to initial estimates. Basabe, 22, isn’t a near-term consideration at the MLB level, so this news won’t have much of an immediate impact. It will slow his start to the season, though, which is unfortunate — particularly since he was looking to bounce back from a tepid showing at Double-A and tough trip through the Arizona Fall League.

Projecting Payrolls: Houston Astros

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Though Spring Training is underway, let’s move on to our 15th team payroll projection. Below find the links to the earlier posts in this series.

Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox
Minnesota Twins
Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
New York Mets
San Diego Padres

If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.

Today, we look into a club whose rebuild earned a World Series win, yet who finds itself with a rotation in flux: the Houston Astros.

Team Leadership

The Astros franchise got off to a bit of a rough start, beginning play in 1962 as the Colt .45s, but the team was obtained by GE Credit and Ford Motor Credit just over a decade later in 1975 as a result of crippling debt related to the building of the Astrodome. Thankfully for the future of baseball in Houston, former Yankees minority owner John McMullen purchased the club in 1979 and oversaw a period of relative stability before selling to Drayton McLane in 1993. McLane’s period of ownership was filled was success, from the Killer Bs to the 2005 National League pennant winners, Astros fans became accustomed to winning. Fans could have been understandably concerned when McLane sold the club at the end of 2011 to Houston businessman Jim Crane. While Crane’s ownership tenure got off to a rocky start, losing 218 games over his first two seasons, the results have been stellar over the past four seasons, particularly the team’s 2017 championship.

This year’s team has been assembled by general manager Jeff Luhnow, who took the reins in Houston in December 2011, shortly after Crane’s purchase was finalized, after nearly a decade running the Cardinals’ scouting department. Luhnow utilized his drafting prowess over his first few drafts to add stars like Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr., and Alex Bregman, with others such as Forrest Whitley and Kyle Tucker close to contributing. Infamously, Luhnow also whiffed on a pair of number one overall picks in right-hander Mark Appel and left-hander Brady Aiken, though Luhnow salvaged his losses by flipping Appel to Philadelphia as a minor piece in the Ken Giles trade and recouping a compensation pick for Aiken going unsigned that became Bregman.

On the whole, it’s difficult to argue with the results that Crane and Luhnow have compiled: they tanked their way to a miserable 176-310 (36.2 percent winning percentage) over their first three years followed by a stellar 374-274 (57.7 percent winning percentage) mark over the last four years.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Astros, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. This period covers the transition from McLane to Crane ownership and includes a tank for the ages with winning teams on either side, so this provides an excellent window into what to expect from the club as they rev up to contend again. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

The Astros were in the top half of leaguewide spenders each year from 2005 through 2010 before their 2011 dip. Then Crane tore the whole operation down to the studs, reaching a comical low in 2013. The 2013 Astros began the year with just five players earning north of $1 million — Bud Norris, Carlos Pena, Jose Veras, Erik Bedard, and Wesley Wright — yet Norris, Pena, and Veras were jettisoned in July while Wright was shipped out in mid-August.

The Astros understandably came under fire for their extremely low payroll at the time, but the low spending was justified by the fact that Crane incurred $275 million in debt to purchase the team and by Crane’s own promise that “once our minor league system is filled in, we’ll move up into the top five or 10 in payroll.” It took a few years for the payroll to reach such lofty heights, but by 2018, Houston found themselves with the seventh-highest end-of-season payroll.

Like most teams, the Astros haven’t been that close to the luxury tax threshold, but that changed in 2018 and figures to be a relevant consideration in 2019 as well. While the Astros never blew past their international amateur bonus pools to the extent that some other teams did, they did incur the top penalties and restrictions in 2016, showing a willingness to spend internationally. Nevertheless, their Major League payrolls present a good picture of baseball operations spending.

Future Liabilities

Get ready for Jose Altuve and a whole bunch of soon-to-be free agents.

We’ll start with Altuve, the 2017 American League Most Valuable Player and heart and soul of the franchise. His contract features one more discounted year before leaving $130 million on the books from 2020-24. As long as Altuve continues to produce like an MVP, I suspect that Houston won’t complain.

Moving to the top of the list, Houston has just one more year with Justin Verlander under contract. The team’s marquee trade acquisition in August 2017 after a period of struggles with the Tigers, Verlander was reinvigorated and returned to Cy Young caliber form. Owed a net of $20 million thanks to a contribution from Detroit, Verlander represents a good bargain in 2019 in advance of his first-ever walk year. He did originally have a vesting option for the 2020 season, but Verlander waived the option to facilitate the trade.

Next we find a trio of outfielders with two remaining years of control. 2018 provided a great, and timely, reminder of Michael Brantley’s offensive prowess when healthy, and he figures to set the table near the top of the lineup for the next two seasons. Joining him will be Josh Reddick, whose average power and above-average on-base ability had been a given for years before his BABIP against right-handed pitching surprisingly cratered in 2018. He’s no star, but he’s a good bet to rebound to be an average starter in 2019. Finally, George Springer slipped in the power department in 2019, but his ability to get on base and play a solid defensive outfield kept him valuable. If the power returns, he’ll be a star once again as he nears free agency.

Yuli Gurriel has underwhelmed somewhat since arriving from Cuba, and at 34, there’s not much reason to think he’ll improve dramatically going forward. He’s solid as a regular, though Tyler White’s offensive prowess could render Gurriel susceptible to losing some playing time.

The majority of the remaining guaranteed contracts are one-year commitments. Smith unfortunately ruptured his Achilles in December 2018, so he won’t be expected back until late summer, if at all. At this point, it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be able to contribute to the 2019 team. Chirinos, Miley, and Rondon should each play a role on the 2019 squadChirinos may get a crack to take the everyday job, but Houston would probably prefer it if Max Stassi’s 2018 breakout — he posted the second highest framing runs added per Baseball Prospectus despite playing a part-time gig — was a harbinger of things to come. Miley could find himself in the rotation’s fifth spot if Verlander and Gerrit Cole stay healthy while Collin McHugh and Josh James make successful returns to starting. And Rondon remains best-suited for a setup role rather than closing, a job he should stick with provided that Roberto Osuna remains entrenched.

The final contract offers some forward-looking control. New Astro Aledmys Diaz will head to arbitration should the team elect to keep him, although he’ll need to prove his health after spending time on the disabled list in each of his first three Major League seasons.

Houston has done well in avoiding dead money with only the final buyout payment for Singleton allocated to this year’s payroll.

Lest you find yourself wondering why the Astros are such a powerful ball club, let’s take a look at one of the most robust arbitration tables in the game:

There’s some serious star power here.

We’ll start with the starting pitchers. Much like Verlander before him, Cole appears to have been invigorated by his move to Houston. He pitched like an ace in Pittsburgh in 2015, then pitched well but not nearly as well in 2016-17. With the Astros in 2018, Cole was an ace once again. McHugh lost most of his 2017 to injury, then found his rotation job claimed by Cole last year. With Charlie Morton (surely) and Dallas Keuchel (presumably) out the door, McHugh figures to have first dibs on a starting job after excelling in relief last season. Unfortunately, McCullers won’t help his case in 2019 as he’ll spend the year recovering from November 2018 Tommy John surgery.

The majority of the Houston bullpen is listed in the table above. It all starts with Osuna, who starred after arriving via trade from Toronto at the end of his 75-game suspension for violating Major League Baseball’s policy on domestic violence. His baseball abilities are indisputable. His off-the-field activities present the club with significant risk, both with regards to public relations and roster construction. Even in his mid-30s, Harris represents superb value, especially given his ability to stifle batters of both handedness. He is likely in line for a big contract next offseason. Peacock and Pressly both figure to pitch a lot, with Houston hoping to get a lot of innings out of Peacock and high-leverage innings from Pressly. Finally, Devenski starred in long role in 2016, excelled in 2017 — though to a lesser degree than the prior year — then floundered in 2018. He still has some time to kill before free agency.

We close the arbitration table with the two position players. Correa, the 2015 American League Rookie of the Year, produced three nearly identical excellent seasons from 2015-17 before an injury-marred 2018. Just 24, Correa likely has years of stardom ahead of him. Marisnick, on the other hand, seems destined for a part-time gig that accents his defensive and baserunning skills. Outside of 2017, he hasn’t shown enough with his bat to warrant a more significant share of time, especially against same-sided pitching.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

To Crane’s credit, when he stripped the club down to next to nothing, he promised that he’d spend when it made sense…and then he did. But what about pushing payroll even higher? Crane has shown a willingness here, too, commenting in December that, “I’d say if the right situation came long — certainly we’re not going over [the luxury-tax threshold] — but we could move closer to that. We were pretty high up in the food chain last year. A lot of teams realize the penalty is pretty severe if you go over. We’ll stay within the strike zone.” Luhnow hasn’t been as open about the team’s spending plans, but Crane provided plenty of guidance.

After living through a miserable rebuild, Crane seems keenly aware of the value of contending seasons and willing to spend to supplement his winning teams.

Are the Astros a Player for Bryce Harper?

I think that the Astros could be lurking in the shadows for Harper.

The team is smack in the middle of their window of contention, but having just lost Morton and (presumably) Keuchel from their rotation, they could use a boost. They currently have Brantley and Reddick manning the corner outfield spots, but Reddick is eminently tradeable. And that’s why Harper could fit so easily. If Houston offloaded Reddick and a portion of his $13 million annual salary for 2019 and 2020, the cost of Harper would be mitigated. With Harper likely obtaining a contract with opt-out clauses starting in the early 2020s, signing him allows the team to maximize their current window without seriously jeopardizing their ability to keep Altuve, Correa, and Bregman together for a decade or more.

The luxury tax is a serious consideration, but it should be avoidable. I currently have the team’s luxury tax payroll at $181.2 million. If the Astros followed the blueprint above, jettisoning Reddick and signing Harper for, say, $30 million per year, they still might be able to stay south of the tax line.

The Astros have looming rotation questions with the free agencies of Verlander and Cole coming, but building around an offensive core of Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Brantley, Springer, White, and Harper…whew.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

How high is Crane willing to go?

As of now, I have the Astros at $164.9 million with the aforementioned $181.2 tax number. After sporting a $160.4 million payroll in 2018 and mentioning that the books have room to expand, there’s surely room for more.

Projecting just how high that number goes is tricky. The 2018 payroll was achieved by the age-old formula of 2013 payroll times five plus $4 million. What does that tell us for 2019?

All kidding aside, Houston is primed to take another step. Harper represents approximately three additional wins over what Houston figures to get out of right field in 2019, and if Reddick could be unloaded, it makes tons of sense. However, Houston has made such a move yet, so it stands to reason that perhaps Crane isn’t interest in pushing payroll quite this high.

So let’s split the difference here between what it would take to add Harper and where payroll currently stands. This represents a 9.2 percent increase of 2018 spending, a sensible amount for a team in the midst of their best-ever window of contention.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $175 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $10.1 million

Giants To Sign Fernando Abad

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The Giants have reached agreement on a minors deal with lefty Fernando Abad, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The deal will not include a MLB camp invite; Abad would earn a $800K salary in the majors.

Abad, 33, had seen big league time in eight-straight seasons before falling short in 2018. He might well have been back in the bigs at some point, but it emerged during camp that he was facing a lengthy PED suspension. Abad was ultimately hit with an 80-game ban that sidelined him for most of the year. He did not sign with a team thereafter.

Over 317 2/3 total innings at the game’s highest level, Abad carries a 3.65 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. Historically, he has been quite a bit more effective against opposing lefty hitters (.237/.287/.383; 144:31 K/BB) than those who own the platoon advantage (.258/.338/.412; 127:82 K/BB).

If he can force his way into the competition, Abad could join a long list of competitors for pen roles. Beyond a reasonably lengthy slate of existing hurlers with at least some MLB experience, newcomers include Rule 5 pick Travis Bergen, switch-pitcher Pat Venditte, DFA trade acquisitions Jake Barrett and Trevor Gott, and minor-league signees Nick Vincent and Keyvius Sampson. There may not be many open spots up for grabs at the moment, but that could change if the club swings late deals on its best relievers.

Giants Sign Nick Vincent

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The Giants have agreed to a contract with right-hander Nick Vincent, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic tweets. Vincent will join the MLB side of camp, but on a minor-league deal, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (Twitter link).

Vincent, 32, owns a sparkling 3.17 ERA over his 332 total MLB innings, so the track record of outcomes is certainly an appealing one. He ended the 2018 campaign with a personal-worst 3.99 ERA, though, and ended up being non-tendered when the Mariners decided not to pay a projected $3.5MM salary.

Given the outcome of his foray onto the open market, MLB teams aren’t terribly optimistic as to Vincent’s ability to keep up his career earned run average. The signing seems like quite a nice move from the Giants’ perspective, though, as Vincent has not only managed to find success over a long stretch but has been supported (at times, at least) by a closer examination.

Vincent, in fact, is something of a darling of certain ERA estimators, though that’s due more to his earlier-career combination of excellent K/BB rates and low home run tallies. More recently, Vincent has proven less than immune to the long ball. Still, metrics have generally valued him as a useful pitcher — including both last year (3.75 FIP, 4.51 xFIP, 3.72 SIERA) and over his full career to date (3.09 FIP, 3.85 xFIP, 3.27 SIERA).

Statcast, likewise, gives cause for optimism. Vincent has been among the league’s best at limiting exit velocity over the past two seasons. During the Statcast era, opposing hitters have managed only a .283 wOBA against Vincent. And that’s actually just a shade higher than the .279 xwOBA that the computers would have anticipated.

Twins Interested In Marwin Gonzalez

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The Twins are showing interest in free agent infielder/outfielder Marwin Gonzalez, according to Dan Hayes of The Athletic (subscription link). The Minnesota organization has “discussed the parameters of a three-year deal,” per the report.

Gonzalez’s market has moved slowly all winter long, but Hayes says the Twins feel there’s “strong competition” from other teams to secure his services. That’s generally promising news for one of the game’s best utilitymen, whose market situation has remained rather foggy.

MLBTR originally predicted a four-year, $36MM deal for Gonzalez. It seems he and his representatives at the Boras Corporation set out with a hefty asking price in the range of $60MM.

For the Twins, adding Gonzalez would represent an interesting, late-breaking move. The club’s recent pair of extensions finally added money to its previously pristine future balance sheets, but it has otherwise focused its spending on players who’ll leave the books after the 2019 season. It seems there’s still quite a bit of untapped payroll availability for both this campaign and those in the near future, though that doesn’t mean the organization is anxious to fill it.

Gonzalez would make for an interesting roster fit in Minnesota. The switch-hitter could conceivably appear just about anywhere on the diamond, as he long has with the Astros. He’d theoretically supplement and serve as a back-up plan at every spot in the infield while perhaps also commanding some playing time in the corner outfield as well.

The Twins’ presumptive starting infield unit is full of righty bats — switch-hitting shortstop Jorge Polanco is an exception, but he has historically fared better from the right side — so it’s not hard to see how Gonzalez might find his way into the lineup quite often. Looking ahead, both second baseman Jonathan Schoop and DH Nelson Cruz could be free agents at season’s end, while the team isn’t committed to first baseman C.J. Cron, so there’ll be holes to fill in the near future as well.

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