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Brewers To Sign Jackie Bradley Jr.

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1:05pm: Bradley’s 2021 salary is $13MM, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. He’ll earn $11MM in 2022 if he declines to opt out.

10:45am: Some of Bradley’s salary is deferred, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

As to the defensive alignment with Bradley in the fold, Brewers manager Craig Counsell spoke to reporters today and firmly indicated that Cain is the team’s center fielder (Twitter links via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Counsell wouldn’t mention Bradley directly, as his deal has yet to be formally announced, but he said his club doesn’t “…have any fourth outfielders. We have a lot of starting outfielders and we have to figure out how that works. But there’s playing time, absolutely.”

7:08am: The Brewers and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. are in agreement on a two-year, $24MM contract, reports Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe. The second year on that deal is a player option, so Bradley will have the opportunity to return to the open market next winter if he performs well during his first season in Milwaukee. Bradley is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Jackie Bradley Jr. | Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

It’s the second major free-agent signing for the Brewers this winter and the second that provides the team with a huge defensive upgrade. Milwaukee also inked former division rival Kolten Wong, arguably the game’s premier defender at second base, on a two-year deal that guarantees him $18MM.

Bradley, 31 in April, figures to slide into the outfield alongside Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. His acquisition could push Avisail Garcia, who struggled in 2020 during the first season of a two-year contract of his own, into a lesser role. It appears quite unlikely that there’ll be a universal designated hitter in 2021 at this point, but Garcia could still work as a DH during interleague games at American League parks. He could also slot into the mix against tough lefties and spell any of the other three on a given day.

Cain, meanwhile, carries a sterling defensive reputation much like Bradley, but he’ll turn 35 the same week Bradley turns 31. The Brewers could turn center field over to the younger of the two and slide Cain, who opted out of the 2020 season after just five games last year, into a less demanding corner outfield spot.

Prior to their deal with Bradley, the Brewers didn’t have much in the way of proven outfield depth in the event that a starting outfielder went down with an injury. The only other outfielders on the 40-man roster were Tyrone Taylor, Corey Ray and a trio of offseason DFA pickups: Billy McKinney, Derek Fisher and Tim Lopes. Bringing Bradley into the mix now gives them cover for a potential injury and allows them to rest Cain (returning at 35 after opting out of 2020) and Yelich (major knee injury at the end of 2019) with more regularity. More broadly speaking, the signing also simply improves both the defense and the lineup.

Detractors may brush aside the notion that Bradley can help to improve Milwaukee’s offense, but over the past six seasons he’s batted .247/.331/.438 — good for a slightly above-average 102 wRC+ and 101 OPS+. That line includes a .283/.364/.450 showing through 217 plate appearances last year. Bradley struggled in 2019 as his strikeout rate spiked to an unpalatable 27.3 percent, but he cut that mark by more than five percent last season in a rebound effort during the shortened campaign.

Bradley shouldn’t be problematic from a payroll standpoint, as the Brewers had been set for a decrease from their 2019-20 spending levels prior to the deal. The new agreement will take them to $105MM if the contract is evenly distributed and a bit more if the deal is front-loaded (which, speculatively speaking, seems likely). Either way, they’ll still be well shy of 2019’s franchise-record $122.5MM Opening Day mark.

The Bradley deal, in many regards, is reminiscent of Milwaukee’s surprise agreement with catcher Yasmani Grandal in the 2018-19 offseason. Grandal, like Bradley, was an elite defender at a premium position who didn’t find long-term offers to his liking and instead bet on himself by signing a one-year deal at a higher annual rate with the Brewers. Bradley’s deal doesn’t match Grandal’s $18.25MM guarantee (although it could afford him more than $12MM depending on the structure), but it gives him a nice safety net with the player option in the event that he struggles in 2021 or deals with a notable injury.

Aside from the Cardinals’ blockbuster acquisition of Nolan Arenado, it’s been a rather quiet offseason in the NL Central. The Cubs have made a handful of small-scale, one-year additions — but only after trading away Yu Darvish — while the Reds and Pirates have been mostly idle. Late agreements with Bradley, Wong and lefty Brett Anderson don’t make the Brewers a clear favorite even in a potentially lackluster division, but they certainly improve what looks to be a competitive club. And given the current payroll level and this front office regime’s penchant for late-offseason value plays, it’d be unwise to completely rule out any further additions.

COVID Notes: 3/4/21

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The latest on how the coronavirus is affecting Major League Baseball:

  • Braves left-hander Max Fried will not make his previously scheduled start Friday because he may have been exposed to COVID-19, Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets. Fried has not tested positive, but manager Brian Snitker said (via David O’Brien of The Athletic) that he’ll “lay low” for a couple of days. At least for now, it doesn’t seem Fried will miss much time. As long as he recovers in short order, Fried could be the Opening Day starter for the Braves, having starred last season with a 2.25 ERA in 56 innings.

MLBTR Poll: Grading The JBJ Signing

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One of the final high-ranked free agents came off the board Thursday when longtime Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. inked a two-year, $24MM contract with the Brewers. Bradley will make $13MM this year, and then he’ll have to decide whether to exercise an $11MM player option for 2022 next winter.

Few would have expected the Brewers to sign Bradley, but now that he’s part of the team, the 30-year-old should further strengthen their outfield. He won’t be their No. 1 center fielder – that job still belongs to Lorenzo Cain, who’s back after opting out of the majority of last season – but will join left fielder Christian Yelich to form a rather promising starting trio. The Brewers also have Avisail Garcia on hand as a fourth outfielder.

In Bradley, the Brewers are getting someone who had one of his most productive offensive years during his last year in Boston (120 wRC+ in 217 plate appearances). However, Bradley has typically been closer to OK than great at the plate, having slashed .239/.321/.412 (93 wRC+) with 98 home runs since he entered the majors in 2013. But Bradley ups his value with well-regarded base running and outstanding work in the field, where he has accumulated 53 Defensive Runs Saved and notched a 36.5 Ultimate Zone Rating across over 7,400 innings in the outfield.

Based on his history, the Brewers seem to have landed at least an average regular in Bradley, and if he’s at peak form, he could certainly amount to much more than that in their uniform. As such, it seems like a reasonable gamble – one that could improve Milwaukee’s chances of winning a wide-open National League Central in 2021. What do you think of the move?

(Poll link for app users)

Injury Notes: K. Calhoun, Lugo, Wick, Pearson

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The latest injury updates from around the majors…

  • Diamondbacks outfielder Kole Calhoun underwent surgery on a torn right meniscus Wednesday, but he expects to recover on the shorter end of the four- to six-week timetable, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com relays. Either way, it doesn’t appear the Diamondbacks will go too long in the regular season without Calhoun, who was one of their most productive players in 2020. The former Angel batted .226/.338/.526 in 228 plate appearances and led the team in home runs (16) and fWAR (1.8.).
  • Mets reliever Seth Lugo said Thursday that he is “on track” in his recovery from mid-February surgery on bone spurs in his right elbow, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Lugo, however, did not offer a timetable for his return from the procedure; it was reported then that Lugo would need at least six weeks to begin throwing again, making it likely he’ll miss the beginning of the season. Lugo has been tremendous out of the Mets’ bullpen since 2018, though his numbers dipped when the club experimented with him in a starting role last year.
  • Cubs righty Rowan Wick, who’s recovering from an intercostal strain, is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. Wick has been working back from the injury since last season, when he didn’t pitch past Sept. 16. That cut off a second consecutive solid year for Wick, who has managed a 2.66 ERA/4.02 SIERA with an above-average 25.7 percent strikeout rate in 50 2/3 innings out of the Cubs’ bullpen dating back to 2019.
  • Blue Jays hurler Nate Pearson has a Grade 1 right groin strain, but the team is hoping he’ll return “pretty quickly,” according to general manager Ross Atkins (via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). The touted right-hander, 24, figures to make a good amount of starts for the Blue Jays this year if he’s healthy. Pearson debuted in 2020, but elbow issues limited him to 18 innings and five appearances (four starts), in which he pitched to a 6.00 ERA/5.95 SIERA.
  • Padres righty Javy Guerra will miss “at least” two to four weeks because of a Grade 1 UCL sprain, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com writes. Guerra (not to be confused with the Nationals’ reliever of the same name) is a former infielder who moved to the mound and threw 22 innings out of the Padres’ bullpen from 2019-20, but he has struggled to an 8.18 ERA thus far in his major league career. The 25-year-old is out of minor league options, so it’s up in the air whether he’ll still be part of the San Diego organization when the season starts.

Jose Castillo To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Padres left-handed reliever Jose Castillo will undergo Tommy John surgery, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. This isn’t surprising news, as Castillo exited a sim game Tuesday with forearm tightness.

The 2021 campaign will go down as another injury-ruined season for Castillo, who threw only two-thirds of an inning in 2019 while dealing with a teres major strain and didn’t pitch in 2020 because of a flexor strain and a torn ligament in his hand. Considering the time it takes to recover from TJ procedures, the 25-year-old Castillo won’t take a major league mound again until sometime in 2022, and that’s if he doesn’t suffer any setbacks. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time next winter.

While the Padres look like one of the majors’ best teams heading into this season, the loss of Castillo is at least a blow to their bullpen depth. A healthy Castillo could have made the team all the more formidable, as he recorded excellent numbers during his rookie year in 2018. He threw 38 1/3 innings then and put up a 3.29 ERA/2.53 SIERA with an eye-popping 34.7 percent strikeout rate.

Red Sox To Sign Danny Santana

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3:58pm: Santana will earn a $1.75MM base salary if he makes it to the bigs and up to $1MM in incentives, Heyman tweets. There’s a $100K bonus if he starts the season in Triple-A.

1:33pm: The Red Sox have agreed to a minor league deal with free-agent infielder/outfielder Danny Santana, reports Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe. The Mato Sports Management client will head to Major League camp as a non-roster invitee. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman had previously suggested Boston was “in the mix” for Santana.

Santana, 30, has been hosting workouts for clubs over the past week or so and reportedly received enough interest that he canceled an open audition that would’ve taken place today. His 2020 season with the Rangers was limited to 15 games before an elbow injury required surgery, but it seems he’s sufficiently rehabbed and will join Boston’s Major League group once he clears intake protocols.

The switch-hitting Santana will add yet another versatile piece for a Red Sox organization that has already signed Enrique Hernandez to a two-year deal and Marwin Gonzalez to a one-year pact this winter. While he managed only a tepid .145/.238/.278 slash in 63 plate appearances due to the aforementioned elbow injury, his 2019 season with the Rangers resulted in an impressive .283/.324/.534 slash with a career-high 28 homers and 21 steals. The juiced ball in 2019 likely had something to do with that sudden power spike, however, as Santana has never shown that type of power in the past.

Santana debuted with the Twins in 2014 and finished seventh in American League Rookie of the Year voting before his bat tailed off for several seasons — some of which were marred by injury. He’s spent the bulk of his time in the big leagues in center field (1143 innings) and at shortstop (918 innings), but Santana has played all three outfield spots and all four infield spots as a Major Leaguer. Overall, he’s a .260/.299/.418 hitter at the game’s top level.

Twins’ Falvey On Odorizzi: “We Wish Him Well”

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With Jackie Bradley Jr. now headed to the Brewers, right-hander Jake Odorizzi is the clear top free agent left on the board. Oftentimes, when a player’s market drags to this extent, there’s continued speculation about a return to his prior team. There’s been some of that with regard to Odorizzi and the Twins, but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey all but ruled out the possibility in an appearance on MLB Now with Brian Kenney yesterday (video link).

“We look at our team as primarily put together here,” Falvey candidly replied when asked about a reunion with Odorizzi. “We know Jake contributed exceptionally well for us over the last few seasons, and certainly we wish him well. For us, our focus is on the players who are internally in camp at this point. We feel really good about the pitching we have already.”

Odorizzi has spent the past three seasons in Minnesota and had previously expressed interest in extending that stay, but he set out into free agency seeking a lucrative multi-year deal this winter at a time when the Twins have been focused on short-term additions. Minnesota has brokered one-year deals with Nelson Cruz ($13MM), Andrelton Simmons ($10.5MM), J.A. Happ ($8MM), Alex Colome ($6.25MM), Matt Shoemaker ($2MM) and Hansel Robles ($2MM) over the course of the winter. That series of moves has pushed the payroll to about $129MM — a number that could further rise by as much as $10MM as Kenta Maeda reaches his annual incentives for games started and innings pitched.

With Odorizzi seemingly out of the picture, the Twins will field a rotation of Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, Happ and Shoemaker. Randy Dobnak is on hand as a sixth starter or possible long man, and other in-house options to start games include lefties Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe. Prospects Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran could both be ready for a look later in the 2021 season, and the Twins have some non-roster arms with big league experience in camp as well (e.g. Andrew Albers, Glenn Sparkman).

As for Odorizzi, the uncertain outlook on his market continues. Earlier this week, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman suggested the right-hander is content to wait for the right offer to arise rather than to substantially drop his asking price. It’s possible that injuries in camp will open some opportunities. The Astros are suddenly facing a very lengthy absence for Framber Valdez, for instance, and other clubs figure to encounter similar setbacks in their rotation as the spring schedule ramps up.

Diamondbacks Sign Anthony Swarzak

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The Diamondbacks have signed veteran right-hander Anthony Swarzak and added him to Major League camp as a non-roster invitee, per a club announcement. The Jet Sports client worked out for clubs back in January after he didn’t pitch with an organization during the 2020 season. (He was with the Phillies on a non-roster deal but was cut loose at the end of summer camp.)

It’s been a few years since Swarzak, 35, enjoyed a full, healthy season at the big league level. He inked a two-year, $14MM deal with the Mets prior to the 2018 season — a move that proved regrettable when shoulder and oblique issues derailed much of his 2018 season. The Mets included him in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz/Jarred Kelenic blockbuster, primarily as a financial counterweight. He was traded to the Braves early in the year and went on to pitch reasonably well with Atlanta, though he again spent time on the IL that summer due to shoulder problems.

Back in 2017, Swarzak thrived in a career year split between the White Sox and Brewers. Through 77 1/3 innings, the righty worked to a 2.33 ERA with a terrific 30 percent strikeout rate against a strong 7.3 percent walk rate.

It’d be a stretch to expect that level of dominance at 35 years old and after a year of not pitching, but since returning from a KBO stint in 2015, Swarzak has tallied 201 1/3 innings of 3.98 ERA ball with peripherals that generally match that output. He’ll give the D-backs some depth in the bullpen and, given the unsettled nature of their relief corps, ought to have a chance at winning a spot on the Opening Day roster. Arizona has shored up the bullpen a bit over the past month, signing Joakim Soria and Tyler Clippard, but there are still multiple spots up for grabs.

Surgery Recommended For Framber Valdez

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March 4: The initial recommendation for treatment of Valdez’s injury is surgery, tweets Heyman. The recovery time on the recommended operation would be sizable enough that there’s concern the left-hander could miss the entire season, Heyman adds.

That’d register as a surprise, although we don’t know the extent of the fracture at this point or whether the imaging performed after that initial announcement revealed any additional damage. The club is still seeking further opinions.

March 3, 12:10pm: Valdez has been diagnosed with a fractured left ring finger, general manager James Click announced to reporters (Twitter link via FOX 26’s Mark Berman). There’s no timetable for his return yet, as he’s slated for additional tests and imaging.

11:58am: Astros lefty Framber Valdez is dealing with a finger injury, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports. The amount of time he’s expected to miss isn’t clear, as he’s still being evaluated by doctors, but Heyman adds that it’s believed to be “serious” and is expected to keep him out of action for awhile. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets that Valdez took a Francisco Lindor grounder off the hand during yesterday’s outing, though he pitched another inning after doing so.

An absence of any length for Valdez would be a tough hit for the Astros, who are already unlikely to get much of anything from Justin Verlander in 2021 after he underwent Tommy John surgery last year. Valdez stepped up in Verlander’s absence and played a huge part in Houston’s playoff run, breaking out with 70 2/3 innings of 3.57 ERA ball over the course of 11 appearances. The 27-year-old completed at least seven innings on six occasions and completed six frames in nine of his 11 outings.

Fielding-independent metrics suggest that Valdez’s 2020 breakout was even better than reflected in his ERA. Valdez’s 60 percent ground-ball rate was one of the best in the game, and his 26.4 percent strikeout rate and 5.6 percent walk rate were both markedly better than the league average. The lefty’s 2.85 FIP and 3.23 SIERA both suggest that his 2020 success was far from a fluke.

For the Astros, Valdez is expected to slot into the rotation’s top three alongside Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier. It’s a solid-looking group thanks to surprise showings from both Valdez and Javier in 2020, but the depth beyond that quintet lacks big league experience and/or success. Their most experienced options, Josh James and Austin Pruitt, are both on the mend from surgery. James had hip surgery in late October, which came with a six to eight month recovery period. Pruitt had elbow surgery in September and, as of January, was not expected to be ready for Opening Day.

Righty Brandon Bielak was hit hard in 12 appearances last year (six starts, six relief outings), and righties Luis Garcia and Bryan Abreu both have fewer than 15 MLB frames under their belts. Garcia did get the ball in a playoff game, but that was largely out of necessity. Prior to 2020, he’d yet to even pitch in Double-A.

Meanwhile, Tyler Ivey and Nivaldo Rodriguez are both on the 40-man roster, but Ivey has yet to pitch in the big leagues and Rodriguez only tossed eight innings of relief in 2020. Prospect Forrest Whitley is also on the 40-man, and he’s still considered a Top 100 farmhand even if his stock has tumbled over the past two years. Former Red Sox swingman Hector Velazquez is in camp as a non-roster player, but the Astros historically haven’t brought in many veterans on non-guaranteed deals and that’s again the case in 2021.

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