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Ken Giles Elects Free Agency

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7:35 pm: Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that Giles asked for a release from the Mariners, who granted his request. That should alleviate any concerns that the club was simply giving up on him contributing down the stretch. Nicholson-Smith also says that several teams are showing interest in Giles, including the Blue Jays, the team he was with from mid-2018 through the end of 2020.

6:05 pm: The Mariners announced that reliever Ken Giles has declined an outright assignment and elected free agency. Giles was designated for assignment on Friday and this announcement would seem to indicate he has passed through waivers unclaimed. As a veteran with over five years of MLB service time, Giles has the right to reject an outright assignment without forfeiting any salary.

Giles, now 31, underwent Tommy John surgery in October of 2020. The Mariners later signed him to a two-year deal, knowing that he would miss the entirety of the 2021 campaign, but hoping for a payoff in 2022. Giles made $1.5MM last year and is making $5MM this season. (There was also a club option for 2023, which now seems to be a moot point.) Unfortunately, things haven’t gone according to that long-term plan, with Giles missing much of this season due to other injuries. Though it was hoped he’d be ready for Opening Day, a finger injury in Spring Training kept him from making his Mariner debut until June 21. After five appearances with diminished velocity, a shoulder issue sent him back to the IL yet again. He was rehabbing from that issue when the M’s designated him for assignment.

Giles will now head back to the open market and try to find his next opportunity. Prior to his current run of injury woes, he was one of the better relievers in all of baseball. He was last healthy for an extended period of time in 2019 with the Blue Jays, throwing 53 innings with a 1.87 ERA, 39.9% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 39.3% ground ball rate.

While dreams of that kind of performance will surely leave some people salivating, there are reasons to feel bearish about Giles for the rest of the season. For one thing, the Mariners didn’t have any need for his roster spot at the time of his DFA, which perhaps suggests that they weren’t expecting his shoulder issues to subside between now and the end of the year. Giles also could have been nabbed on waivers by any of the 29 other teams, with the claiming club only on the hook for the remainder of his salary this year, which would have been about $1.4MM. That claiming team also could have retained him for 2023 via the club option on his contract, which would have given Giles $9.5MM next year and came with a buyout of just $500K. The fact that every team passed up on that chance suggests at least some degree of pessimism from the market.

However, now that he has cleared, any team could sign him and pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount being subtracted from what Seattle pays. That will make him an interesting wild card in the baseball world until he signs. On the one hand, he’s now three years removed from his last signs of effectiveness and has dealt with various ailments since. But on the other hand, with the trade deadline now gone, teams desiring bullpen upgrades have very limited options for doing so. Given Giles’ past success and no-risk acquisition cost, teams could consider him worth a dice roll.

The Mariners also announced that catcher Luis Torrens cleared waivers and was outright to Triple-A Tacoma. His situation is slightly different from Giles, given that he has just over three years of MLB service time. Players between three and five years can reject an outright assignment and elect free agency, though they have to forfeit their remaining salary. Torrens qualified for arbitration this past offseason as a Super Two player and is making a $1.2MM salary this year. With approximately $340K remaining to be paid out this year, no team deemed him worthy of a claim. Though the Mariners didn’t announce if he accepted the assignment, it seems fair to assume that he has, given that the club announced Giles’ rejection and the money Torrens would leave on the table by walking away. Torrens isn’t rated very highly for his defense but provided strong offense last year, hitting 15 home runs and slashing .243/.299/.431, wRC+ of 101. He’s been far worse this year, however, adding just a single long ball and producing a batting line of .214/.262/.252, wRC+ of 52.

Reds Sign Derek Law To Minor League Deal

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The Reds have signed right-hander Derek Law to a minor league contract, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He has been assigned to the Triple-A Louisville Bats.

Law, 31, has previously pitched for the Giants, Blue Jays and Twins, before joining the Tigers this year. He was signed to a minor league contract in April and pitched well in Triple-A this season. In 39 innings over 33 appearances, he registered a 3.23 ERA with a 27.2% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 46.2% ground ball rate.

He was selected to the big league club at the end of July but was designated for assignment less than a week later, after getting into just two MLB games. Law cleared waivers and was outrighted by the Tigers, though he was eligible to elect free agency based on the fact that he’s been previously outrighted in his career and also has over three years of MLB service time.

Law did indeed elect free agency and will now join a Cincinnati team with notable pitching depth concerns. They currently have 11 hurlers on the injured list, with seven of those being on the 60-day IL. Given those injuries and the fact that they traded Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle at the deadline, the pitching staff is not in the strongest shape at the moment. Should they decide they need a fresh arm, Law should be an intriguing option, given his experience and solid minor league numbers this year.

Brewers Notes: Stearns, Deadline, Rosenthal

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The contractual status of Brewers’ president of baseball operations David Stearns continues to be shrouded in mystery. It was once believed that 2022 was the final year of his contract, until it was reported in October of last year that Milwaukee had some sort of option over Stearns for 2023. In February, it emerged that Stearns was actually under contract for 2023 but could opt out of the deal if the Brewers reached the World Series in 2022. That was followed by a report in May from Jon Heyman of the New York Post that it was “believed” Stearns could actually opt out if Milwaukee reached the NLCS.

In another piece from Heyman in recent days, he hedges that a bit, saying that it’s “unconfirmed” whether the Brew Crew need to reach the NLCS or the World Series. Of course, the reason that all this is so newsworthy is that the Mets have been trying to pluck the New York native from Milwaukee for essentially the past year. The Brewers denied their request to interview him this winter, given the two years that were then remaining on his contract. The Mets eventually hired Billy Eppler to serve as general manager, but could theoretically still hire Stearns in the future as well, perhaps with the president of baseball operations title he currently holds in Milwaukee. Stearns would no doubt be intrigued by moving to New York, not just because he’s from there. The Mets also have significantly higher spending power, running out a $264MM Opening Day payroll this year, doubling the $132MM number of the Brewers.

Of course, those budgetary concerns were the primary motivator of the recent Josh Hader trade. As noted in the above report from Heyman, the club then tried to compensate for Hader’s loss by boosting the lineup. They apparently tried to acquire Brandon Drury and Josh Bell, losing the bidding to the Padres in both cases. They also targeted Joc Pederson, though the Giants decided against a major selloff and didn’t end up trading him. Joey Gallo was also considered, though he ended up going to the Dodgers instead. Perhaps due to the their lackluster deadline or perhaps coincidentally, the club has gone 4-7 this month, letting the NL Central lead slip to the Cardinals, with the Brewers now 1 1/2 games back.

As for the club’s Hader-less bullpen, Stearns acquired other pitchers to try and make up that loss, with one of those being Trevor Rosenthal. The righty has previously been one of the best relievers in the sport, but injuries have limited him to less than 40 total innings since the end of the 2018 campaign. He was signed by the Giants a couple of weeks before the deadline this year and immediately placed on the injured list due to a hamstring issue. The Brewers picked him up at the deadline in a high-risk move that would potentially have a high reward if Rosenthal could return to his previous form. We are on the verge of finding out whether it pays off or not, as Rosenthal told reporters, including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, that he’s going on a rehab assignment this week. He also added that he recently touched 98 mph in a workout. His most recent action was in the shortened 2020 season, when he threw 23 2/3 innings with a 1.90 ERA along with an incredible 41.8% strikeout rate. If he can get anywhere close to that level here this year, he’ll give the Brewers a much-needed boost down the stretch.

NL East Notes: Abrams, Harper, Knebel, Guillorme

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Nationals’ infielder Luis Garcia has been dealing with a sore groin and may be headed to the injured list. Manager Dave Martinez relayed this info to Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com, who added C.J. Abrams was pulled from the Rochester Red Wings lineup today. Dan J. Glickman of Pickin’ Splinters then relayed word from Red Wings manager Matt LeCroy that the removal of Abrams was on order of the big league club, with ESPN’s Jeff Passan later confirming that Abrams will indeed be called up.

Abrams, of course, was one of the pieces coming to Washington in the Juan Soto trade, with many considering him the centerpiece of Washington’s return in the deal. Abrams got some MLB time with the Padres this year, though the Nats initially optioned him to the minors after the trade. With Garcia’s injury, it seems like he is set to make his debut as a National, about two weeks after the trade.

Even before this injury popped up, recent reporting had suggested Abrams would take over at shortstop, with Garcia moving over to second base due to his poor defensive showing at short. Abrams should take over regular shortstop duty for now, with Garcia eventually slotting in next to him at the keystone whenever his groin heals. Currently considered the #11 prospect across the league by Baseball America, Abrams hasn’t hit much at the major league level yet, but he’s hit .310/.360/.480 in Triple-A this season. He’ll celebrate his 22nd birthday in October.

In other NL East news…

  • Phillies’ slugger Bryce Harper will take batting practice tomorrow for the first time since fracturing his thumb in June, with Matt Gelb of The Athletic relaying word from skipper Rob Thomson. Harper was dealing with torn UCL before that thumb issue, which had limited him to DH duties only. Though it was hoped the downtime from the thumb issue might lead to improvement in the elbow, that doesn’t seem to be the case, with the club just focusing on getting Harper’s bat back into the lineup for now. On that front, getting Harper back into BP is a notable step. Despite the torn UCL, Harper has hit .318/.385/.599 on the year for a wRC+ of 166. Getting him back to the Phils would obviously provide a huge boost down the stretch, as the club looks to battle its way through a tough postseason race with less than two months now remaining on the schedule.
  • While the progress of Harper is good news, the Phillies also got some bad news today. Reliever Corey Knebel left today’s game with a lat strain, the team announced to reporters, including Gelb. The severity isn’t yet known, with Knebel now slated for an MRI that will likely provide more information. The hurler has a 3.45 ERA on the season, though his 20.9% strikeout rate and 13.6% walk rates both represent career worsts. Things looked much rosier earlier this month, as Knebel had a 2.59 ERA until a five-run outing on August 2. Taking that one outing away would certainly make his numbers look better, though the lack of punchouts and increased free passes are still concerning.
  • The Mets announced to reporters, including Tim Britton of The Athletic, that infielder Luis Guillorme left today’s game with left groin tightness. He will undergo imaging tomorrow. Though it’s unclear how serious the issue is, the timing is unfortunate as the Mets’ infield has been taking a beating of late. Both Eduardo Escobar and Jeff McNeil had to leave Friday’s game due to injuries, which forced the club to turn to outfield Mark Canha as an emergency third baseman. Escobar relieved Guillorme today and McNeil started the game, so it doesn’t appear terribly dire. However, the club may have to consider adding another infielder to the roster in order to build in some rest for such a banged-up group.

Red Sox Activate Michael Wacha From 15-Day Injured List

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2:54PM: The Sox officially reinstated Wacha from the IL.  Left-hander Darwinzon Hernandez was optioned to Triple-A to create roster space.

9:05AM: The Red Sox will activate right-hander Michael Wacha from the 15-day injured list today, manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe).  Wacha will get the start for tonight’s game against the Yankees.

Right shoulder inflammation sent Wacha to the IL on July 5, so between this absence and a previous 15-day stint in May due to left intercostal irritation, Wacha has missed a good chunk of his first season with the Red Sox.  When he has been able to pitch, the righty has been arguably Boston’s best hurler, with a 2.69 ERA over 70 1/3 innings.

This performance is tempered by a 4.56 SIERA, a .240 BABIP and a slate of unimpressive Statcast metrics, so some regression seems almost inevitable.  However, in terms of pure bottom-line numbers, 2022 represents a very nice bounce-back for Wacha after he posted a 5.11 ERA in 285 1/3 innings in 2019-21.  The Sox have already gotten a decent return on their one-year, $7MM investment in Wacha during the offseason, and if he can continue to defy the metrics, he could be a key arm for the Red Sox down the stretch.

The starting rotation has been a question mark for the Sox virtually all season, with injuries and/or inconsistency plaguing just about every pitcher on the roster.  Chris Sale’s season-ending wrist surgery means that Boston won’t ever truly have its first-choice starting five all going at the same time, but Wacha’s return at least represents one more piece of the puzzle.  Wacha joins Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Rich Hill, and Kutter Crawford in the rotation, with Josh Winckowski likely to return to bullpen work, and James Paxton tentatively set to make a September return after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April 2021.

GM Mike Elias: Orioles Will “Significantly Escalate The Payroll” During Offseason

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The Orioles have been one of the biggest stories of the 2022 season, emerging from years of rebuilding and mediocrity to post a 59-54 record and challenge for a wild card slot.  Even if it looks like the O’s may have turned the corner already, the club definitely wants to make winning a habit going forward, and a payroll increase will come along with that planned return to contention.

“Our plan for this offseason has always been to significantly escalate the payroll,” GM Mike Elias said in an appearance on The Front Office Show on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM.  “I think a lot of that’s going to come through our own guys going into arbitration, but also we plan to explore free agency much more aggressively.  We plan to maybe make some buy trades for some guys that are either on contracts or kind of in the tail-end of their arbitration.”

“The success…has only cemented those plans.  I’m really looking forward to the offseason and kind of a winter meetings environment where we’re buying.  I think it’s going to be a lot of fun for our group and for the organization.”

In a sense, there was nowhere to go but up for Baltimore’s spending considering that the team’s Opening Day was just under $43.8MM.  This was the lowest amount any team was spending on its active roster, marking the fourth straight season that the O’s have been at or near the very bottom of the payroll list.  As Elias noted, several players (Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, Jorge Mateo, Dillon Tate) are becoming arbitration-eligible for the first time, while Anthony Santander is due a raise for his third trip through the arb process.

Still, it counts as a positive for Baltimore fans that a rising arbitration price tag doesn’t automatically make a player into a trade candidate, given all of the cost-cutting that has gone on during Elias’ rebuild.  And now, Elias seems poised to make some significant veteran additions for the first time in his three-plus seasons in charge of the front office.

At the end of the 2017 season, the Orioles carried a franchise record payroll of just under $167.5MM.  It is probably safe to assume that the O’s won’t suddenly jump back to that number in a single offseason, so a Rangers-esque offseason splurge likely isn’t in the cards.  There is also the lingering question of a reported dispute within the Orioles’ ownership group, and whatever impact that could potentially have over the franchise’s willingness to spend (or who is ultimately making any big-picture spending decisions).

If Elias’ past job in the Astros front office is any guide, the Orioles’ winter could be somewhat akin to what Houston did in the wake of the 2015 season.  After six losing seasons and an extensive rebuild, the Astros won 86 games and the AL Wild Card game, catching many fans and pundits off-guard in the same way that the Orioles have surprised this year.  However, the Astros had a busy offseason that still stopped short of any true blockbuster moves, perhaps owing to both a feeling that the 2015 club was a bit ahead of schedule, and because Houston still wanted to see what it really had in some highly-touted youngsters who had yet to break out or even arrive in the majors.  (For instance, 2016 was Alex Bregman’s debut season.)

The same could be said of the current Orioles, considering that so many of their top prospects — Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser — haven’t made their MLB debuts, while the likes of DL Hall and Kyle Stowers have only been up for a cup of coffee.  That leaves the O’s with some uncertainty over who will or won’t be cornerstone pieces, and yet the sheer depth of prospect talent definitely bodes well for the future.  And of course, Adley Rutschman has hit the ground running in his rookie season and already looks like one of the sport’s best catchers.

As much as Elias is tied to Astros history as the team’s former assistant GM and scouting director, he also wasn’t calling the shots in that organization, whereas he is at the top of Baltimore’s front office pyramid.  It will be interesting to see Elias’ approach now that he is building rather than rebuilding, and given this lack of history, we can’t rule out a pursuit of, say, a major free agent.  Elias did already pass on one chance to add to the Orioles at the trade deadline, as even with the team in contention, the club still dealt Jorge Lopez to the Twins and Trey Mancini to the Astros.

Tigers Acquire Ricardo Sanchez From Phillies

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The Tigers and Phillies announced a minor league trade, with left-hander Ricardo Sanchez heading to Detroit in exchange for cash considerations.  Because Sanchez has played the entire season on a minor league contract without spending any time on Philadelphia’s big league roster or big league injured list, he was eligible to be dealt after the August 2 trade deadline.

Sanchez has been assigned to Triple-A, but given how injuries have ravaged the Tigers’ pitching staff to an almost absurd extent, it might not be long before Sanchez gets his second crack in the big leagues.  Sanchez made his MLB debut in 2020, throwing 5 1/3 innings over three games with the Cardinals.  The southpaw remained in the St. Louis organization until this past March, when he was released and then quickly pivoted to a new minors deal with Philadelphia.

Injuries kept Sanchez off the mound entirely in 2021, but he returned to post a 4.79 ERA over 92 innings with the Phillies’ Triple-A affiliate.  Never a big strikeout pitcher during his eight seasons in the pros, Sanchez is inducing grounders roughly half the time, but a .337 BABIP hasn’t helped Sanchez keep runs off the board.

Originally signed as an international free agent by the Angels in 2013, Sanchez will now head to his sixth different Major League organization.  Sanchez is only 25, so it’s perhaps inaccurate to say that the Tigers only view him as a shorter-term option, but Detroit is likely just looking for all of the depth it can find given the team’s lack of healthy arms.

Marlins Announce Six Roster Moves

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The Marlins made a flurry of roster moves prior to today’s game, including the placement of right-hander Anthony Bender on the 15-day injured list due to a right elbow strain.  Righty Tommy Nance was also optioned to Triple-A, right-hander A.J. Ladwig was designated for assignment, and right-hander Cole Sulser was moved to the 60-day IL.  For new faces on Miami’s roster, the club selected the contracts of left-hander Andrew Nardi and right-hander Parker Bugg from Triple-A.

Something was clearly amiss with Bender yesterday, as he lasted only five pitches into a relief outing before having to leave the game.  The severity of the elbow strain isn’t yet known, but given the timing on the baseball calendar, it is possible Bender’s season might be over even if he hasn’t suffered any notable structural damage to his elbow.

The righty already missed close to 10 weeks of the season due to a back problem, and was only just activated off the 60-day IL in early August.  After a strong 2021 rookie season, Bender has still pitched well (3.26 ERA over 19 1/3 IP) this year, though his strikeouts are down and his health problems have cost him a lot of momentum.  Tanner Scott has now emerged as the Marlins’ closer, but heading into the season, there was some thought that Bender could possibly assume the role, and he has the majority of save chances prior to his first injury.

Sulser was another closer candidate, except a right lat strain sent him to the IL in mid-June.  The shift to the 60-man injured list is largely procedural, as the Marlins can now create 40-man roster space, and Sulser’s original timeline is still set from his initial June 13 placement date.  Sulser has been rehabbing at Triple-A and might not be far away from a return.

Bugg and Nardi join the 40-man and 26-man rosters, and are now in line to make their Major League debuts.  Bugg was a 27th-round pick for the Marlins in the 2016 draft, while Nardi was a 16th-round selection in 2019.

The 27-year-old Bugg has worked mostly as a reliever during his pro career, with a few opener-style starts.  Now in his third season at Triple-A, Bugg is delivering good results with a 2.39 ERA in 37 2/3 innings, though his walk rate has been worryingly high.  Over 131 2/3 innings at Triple-A, Bugg has a 13.64% walk rate.

Nardi is just a few days short of his 24th birthday, so this promotion counts as a very memorable early present.  Control was also a problem for Nardi earlier in his career, but over the last two seasons has managed to both limit the walks and increase his strikeout totals.  As a result, Nardi has now gone from A-ball in May 2021 all the way to the majors in just 15 months.  MLB Pipeline ranks Nardi 30th on their list of Marlins prospects, giving 55 grades to his slider and his fastball (which usually sits in the 92-94mph range).

Since the Marlins are coming off a doubleheader with the Braves yesterday, the promotions of Bugg and Nardi give Miami a couple of fresh arms in the relief corps.  This meant a quick departure for Ladwig, who was called up yesterday as the 27th man for the doubleheader.  Ladwig’s brief stay did result in his first MLB appearance, as he tossed 3 1/3 innings against the World Series champs, allowing four runs.  A longtime member of the Tigers organization, Ladwig signed with the Marlins in May after being released by Detroit.

Rangers Recall Yerry Rodriguez

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The Rangers have called up right-hander Yerry Rodriguez to the majors for the first time.  The 24-year-old will take the roster spot of left-hander Matt Moore, who was placed on the paternity list.

Even if it’s only for a cup of coffee in the majors while Moore is away, Rodriguez is now on pace to make his MLB debut.  He has been a member of the Rangers’ 40-man roster since the 2020-21 offseason, and the former international signing is in his sixth season of pro ball.

MLB Pipeline ranks Rodriguez as the 24th-best prospect in the Texas farm system, citing his ” deceptive delivery with a flat approach angle and the athleticism to repeat it consistently.”  His fastball and changeup both received 55 grades on the 20-80 scouting scale, though Pipeline’s scouting report notes that since Rodriguez moved to mostly full-time bullpen work this season, he has used his changeup less often than a slider, with shaky results.

Over 42 2/3 innings at Triple-A this year, Rodriguez has a 4.43 ERA and a 28.6% strikeout rate.  The righty has been able to consistently generate strikeouts on his way up the minor league ladder, but his control has suddenly become an issue, with his walk rate spiking to 13.6% this year.  That problem will surely have to be corrected if Rodriguez is going to be part of the conversation for a bullpen role in 2023, but the Texas coaching staff will get an opportunity for a first-hand look at the youngster in the coming days.

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Pitchers

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Yesterday, we took a look at the pending free agent position players who could be candidates to receive a qualifying offer this winter.  Now, let’s turn our attention to what free agent pitchers might be in line for a QO, with the caveat that players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers, and a player must spend the entire 2022 season with his team to be eligible.

Easy Calls: Chris Bassitt (Mets), Jacob deGrom (Mets), Edwin Diaz (Mets), Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox), Carlos Rodon (Giants)

DeGrom has already said that he is opting out of the final guaranteed season of his contract, leaving $30.5MM on the table in 2023 to seek out a longer-term pact.  Rodon is also sure to opt out of the final year (and $22.5MM) of his two-year contact with San Francisco, as Rodon earned his opt-out by triggering a vesting option at the 110-innings threshold.

Even with Eovaldi’s injury history, retaining him for one year at roughly $19MM seems like a pretty good outcome for the Red Sox, particularly given all the other question marks in Boston’s rotation.  So there’s little risk for the Sox in issuing Eovaldi a QO, though it would seem like Eovaldi will probably reject it.

Face-of-the-Franchise Veterans: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)

With Kershaw considering retirement last winter, the Dodgers opted against issuing him a qualifying offer as a free agent, as a nod towards giving the longtime ace all the time he needed to make a decision on his future.  It stands to reason that the Dodgers will take the same path this winter, unless Kershaw gives them advance notice of his plans for 2023….though in that scenario, the two sides might just work out an extension before free agency even officially opens.

The same could be true of Wainwright, who has signed one-year contracts to rejoin the Cardinals in each of the last four offseasons.  In three of those cases, Wainwright inked his new deal either just after the start of the free agent period or before it altogether, so it’s safe to assume the two sides will work out a new pact without the QO coming into play.  Of course, this assumes that Wainwright will come back for an 18th Major League season, but even as his 41st birthday approaches, the right-hander is still going strong.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Carlos Carrasco (Mets), Sonny Gray (Twins), Aaron Nola (Phillies)

These starters could be free agents if their club options are declined, and thus are technically qualifying-offer candidates.  However, the trio are all virtual locks to have their options exercised, and their respective options are all worth less than the projected cost of the qualifying offer.

Borderline Cases: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Mike Clevinger (Padres), Zach Eflin (Phillies), Sean Manaea (Padres), Martin Perez (Rangers), Jameson Taillon (Yankees), Taijuan Walker (Mets)

Walker is yet another Mets entry on this list, as he is very likely to decline his $6MM player option for 2023 and instead take a $3MM buyout into free agency.  Advanced metrics paint a less-flattering picture of Walker’s performance than his bottom-line numbers, and he has battled both injury and consistency problems over his career, though Walker has been relatively healthy in his two seasons in New York.  It would seem likely that the Mets will issue Walker a QO, and 2022 has been enough of a platform year for the righty that he will probably turn the qualifying offer down.

The Padres are another team with multiple QO candidates, as while Joe Musgrove was kept off the open market with a $100MM extension, Manaea and Clevinger remain.  Due in part to two particularly disastrous outings against the Dodgers, Manaea’s ERA is an ungainly 4.76 over 119 innings.  Clevinger has a solid 3.47 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery, but that is only over 70 innings, due to both his TJ rehab as well as a triceps strain and a week on the COVID-related IL.

Right now, Manaea and Clevinger could possibly be candidates to accept a qualifying offer, if they don’t feel they have enough of a platform to maximize their free agent market.  Solid performances over the final month and a half of the season would make it an easier decision for either pitcher to reject a QO, and easier for the Padres to decide whether or not to issue the offers.  San Diego could be facing a third consecutive year of luxury-tax overage in 2023, especially if Manaea and/or Clevinger are on the books for a $19MM-ish salary.

Eflin is another player who needs to post some solid numbers down the stretch, but first and foremost, the Philadelphia right-hander just needs to get healthy.  Eflin has been on the IL since late June due to a kneecap bruise, and his continued knee soreness is a red flag for a pitcher who has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past.  When healthy, Eflin has been a quietly solid pitcher for the Phillies over the last five seasons, yet his lingering knee problems are certainly a concern.  There is the interesting wrinkle of a $15MM mutual option between Eflin and the Phils for 2023, and while mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties, this could be a rare situation where it would make sense for both the player and the team.  Paying $15MM for Eflin would also represent some risk for the Phillies, but it would be less than the value of a qualifying offer.

After a great start to the season, Taillon’s numbers have come back to earth a bit, with a 3.95 ERA over 120 2/3 innings.  A below-average strikeout pitcher, Taillon has relied on excellent control and spin rates on his fastball and curve to limit damage, and he also doesn’t allow too much hard contact.  Perhaps most importantly given Taillon’s injury history, he has been healthy in 2022, which should make offseason suitors more open to giving him a longer-term contract.  For now, it seems probable that the Yankees would issue Taillon a QO rather than let him potentially walk away for nothing in free agency.

The idea of Anderson or Perez as QO candidates would’ve seemed quite farfetched heading into the season, yet the two veteran left-handers are each enjoying career years that resulted in All-Star appearances.  Their underwhelming career histories could prevent the Dodgers and Rangers from issuing qualifying offers, since either pitcher would likely take the big payday, and $19MM is a lot to invest in basically one season of evidence (even for a Dodgers team that is comfortable blowing past luxury tax thresholds).

However, it would certainly make sense for either club to pursue re-signings, even if a qualifying offer isn’t involved.  The Rangers have already been vocal about their desire to retain Perez, so it is quite possible he signs an extension before even hitting the open market.

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