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Quick Hits: Scherzer, F. Vazquez, Broxton, Reds

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The Nationals are expecting ace Max Scherzer to return from the injured list by Thursday or Friday, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports. Scherzer, out since July 13 with right shoulder bursitis, threw a full bullpen session Monday and offered an encouraging assessment afterward, per Zuckerman. The Nationals have maintained a playoff spot during Scherzer’s absence, but the three-time Cy Young winner is their MVP and someone they likely can’t go without for much longer. The 34-year-old Scherzer was amid another all-world season before hit hit the shelf, with a 2.30 ERA/2.02 FIP, 12.6 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and 5.5 WAR in 129 1/3 innings.

More on a few other clubs…

  • Back on July 1, Pirates general manager Neal Huntington downplayed the possibility of trading closer Felipe Vazquez. The Bucs have lost 10 of 16 since then, putting them six games out of playoff position, but Huntington’s mind hasn’t changed. He once again made it clear Sunday that the Pirates expect to push for contention in the near future with Vazquez on their roster (via Adam Berry of MLB.com). On a potential Vazquez trade, Huntington said: “If we were expecting to lose 100 games next year, then it’s a different approach. But our expectation is to be right back in this — if we don’t get there this year — to be right back in this next year, and to have a guy like that in the back end is really important.” The Pirates haven’t made the playoffs since 2015, the year before they acquired the electric Vazquez, and appear as if they’ll extend their drought this season. Vazquez is controllable through 2023, giving the Pirates time to take advantage of his presence; on the other hand, Vazquez’s team-friendly contract is one of the reasons he’d bring back so much in a trade. Huntington appears to have no interest in giving up one of the greatest acquisitions of his tenure, though.
  • When the Orioles designated center fielder Keon Broxton for assignment Sunday, manager Brandon Hyde suggested the O’s would lose him, saying (via Joe Trezza of MLB.com): “I’m hoping he’ll get picked up by somebody, especially someone who needs outfield defense and baserunning for the postseason. I wish Keon the best.” It appears Broxton will indeed end up elsewhere in the coming days, as Trezza reports “a few teams” have checked in on the 29-year-old. Broxton can run and defend, as Hyde noted, though horrid hitting has torpedoed his value in 2019. Broxton has struck out in 43 percent of his 165 plate appearances, thus limiting him to a .184/.244/.289 line (42 wRC+). With no minor league options left, both the Mets and Orioles have given up on the once-promising Broxton this season.
  • The Reds put right-hander Tyler Mahle on the injured list Monday with a left hamstring strain and recalled fellow righty Sal Romano from Triple-A Louisville. The 24-year-old Mahle’s IL placement came after a pair of rough starts that saw him allow a combined 14 runs (10 earned) in 9 2/3 innings in losses to Colorado and St. Louis. Mahle has now mustered a 4.93 ERA in 102 1/3 innings, though he has also logged a much better 4.32 FIP, posted 9.32 K/9 against 2.29 BB/9 and notched a 45.6 percent groundball rate.

Indians, Braves, Dodgers Reportedly Interested In Mychal Givens

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Orioles reliever Mychal Givens has reportedly drawn interest from the Phillies and Nationals leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. The Indians, Braves and Dodgers are also among the clubs in on Givens, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription link).

With two-plus years’ team control remaining and a $2.15MM salary, Givens stands out as one of the Orioles’ strongest trade chips. Considering the Orioles are caught in what figures to be a long rebuild, it’ll be a surprise if they don’t part with Givens soon. Unfortunately for the Orioles, though, the 29-year-old right-hander hasn’t enjoyed as productive a season as he did over the previous four campaigns.

Through 38 1/3 innings this year, Givens has pitched to an unspectacular 4.23 ERA/4.63 FIP with eight saves on 13 tries and a weak 39.1 percent groundball rate. A large number of the fly balls Givens has surrendered have left the yard, evidenced by his bloated 22.9 percent fly ball rate. That said, Givens has been a lot steadier since his ERA was pushing 6.00 at the end of May. He has also fanned a career-high 12.21 batters per nine (against 3.99 walks), posted a personal-high 15.2 percent swinging-strike rate and kept his 95 mph velocity intact.

As for the the just-reported teams eyeing Givens, interest from the Indians isn’t anything new. They went after Givens last summer, but Baltimore elected to hold him. The Indians’ bullpen has been among the majors’ most effective this year, in part because of lights-out closer Brad Hand. There has been speculation about the Indians trading Hand, but considering their red-hot run, it seems the playoff hopefuls are more interested in adding to their bullpen than subtracting from it.

The bullpens of the Dodgers and Braves – the NL’s two leading teams – haven’t been as successful as the Indians’. Los Angeles and Atlanta have been linked to multiple trade candidate relievers as a result. In addition to Givens, Blue Jays closer Ken Giles seems to be a Braves target. Meanwhile, the Giants’ key relievers (Will Smith, Sam Dyson, Reyes Moronta), Pirates closer Felipe Vazquez, Tigers closer Shane Greene Royals lefty Jake Diekman have all been rumored to the Dodgers during their wide-ranging search for late-game aid.

White Sox Rumors: Colome, Abreu, Bummer, Fry, Leury

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At 45-52 and 10 games back of a wild-card spot, the White Sox are buried in the American Leagugue playoff race. Despite that, the team isn’t going into the July 31 trade deadline as a motivated seller, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score explains.

Thirty-somethings Alex Colome and Jose Abreu would represent a pair of plausible trade chips if the White Sox were to aggressively ship out veterans. Either player could still move by the 31st, but considering Colome’s under control through 2020, the White Sox could opt to retain him, Levine observes. Abreu’s an impending free agent, though the franchise icon and the club have time and again expressed a desire to stay together beyond this season. The White Sox still aren’t ruling out dealing the first baseman, per Levine, but he adds they’d need to “love” an offer for Abreu if they’re going to part with him.

Meanwhile, two of Colome’s fellow relievers – Aaron Bummer and Jace Fry – as well as utilityman Leury Garcia have also garnered interest, Levine reports. Bummer has generated the most inquiries, but the White Sox are inclined to keep him and Fry.

Just 25 and not even eligible for arbitration until after next season, the left-handed Bummer has pitched to an exceptional 1.73 ERA (3.17 FIP) in 36 1/3 innings. An eye-popping 68.5 percent groundball rate and 8.67 K/9 against 2.72 BB/9 have driven Bummer’s success, as has a rise in velocity. Bummer has seen his average fastball velo rise from 93 mph between 2017-18 to 95-plus this season.

Fry, 26, is another lefty-throwing grounder machine, having forced them at a 57.8 percent clip in 2019. He’s striking out an excellent 11.5 per nine to boot, but a sky-high walk rate (6.68 BB/9) has undermined Fry’s work, evidenced by a 4.28 ERA/4.23 FIP over 33 2/3 innings. He, like Bummer, won’t reach arbitration until after 2020.

Garcia’s already in the arb process – he’s in his second-last year before free agency – but his $1.55MM salary, season-plus of control and defensive flexibility make him appealing to the White Sox and other clubs. While the 28-year-old is typically a center fielder, he has played upward of 40 games at both corner outfield spots and both middle infield positions since debuting in 2013. Garcia’s also a switch-hitter who has complemented his versatility in the field with useful offense in recent years. After managing terrible numbers with the bat from 2013-16, Garcia has been closer to a league-average hitter over the past two-plus seasons. Despite a lack of power, Garcia has posted a 92 wRC+ (.278/.316/.396) dating back to 2017.

Garcia’s improvement at the dish may help lead to his exit from Chicago in the next several days. However, the White Sox – who’d surely like to move past their rebuild and into contention soon – don’t seem dead set on trading Garcia or anyone else.

Rangers’ Jose Leclerc, Chris Martin Drawing Interest

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It wasn’t long ago that the Rangers looked as if they were likely to buy at the July 31 trade deadline, but the club’s now plummeting down the standings. Losers of seven straight, the Rangers sit 50-49 and six games back of a wild-card spot. The club could sell before the deadline as a result, with Mike Minor, Hunter Pence and Danny Santana representing a few of its players who have drawn reported interest of late. Add right-handed relievers Jose Leclerc and Chris Martin to the group, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.

Between Leclerc and Martin, the former clearly boasts more trade value. Leclerc’s a season removed from performing like one of the game’s very best relievers, and he’s controllable for the foreseeable future at team-friendly prices. After Leclerc’s dominant 2018, the Rangers locked him up to a four-year, $14.75MM guarantee with club options for $6MM (2023) and $6.25MM (’24).

Although the 25-year-old Leclerc hasn’t been the force he was last season, he has largely moved past a dismal opening to 2019. Leclerc owned an ERA upward of 7.00 through April, causing the Rangers to remove him as their closer, but that number is now a more palatable 4.20. The hard-throwing Leclerc’s 3.44 FIP is far better, while his 13.6 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 comprise an above-average K/BB ratio (3.09).

Martin – another high-velocity option – has been effective this season, but the 33-year-old is down to his last couple months of team control. He’s making $2.25MM to close out the two-year, $4MM contract he signed with the Rangers in 2018 after pitching in Japan over the previous two seasons.

Martin walked just over a batter per nine innings last year in his stateside return, but the figure has shrunk to a tiny .73 this season. He’s also striking out 9.97, helping Martin to the majors’ leading K/BB ratio (13.67) among qualified relievers. Martin has also posted an attractive ERA (3.16), though FIP (4.06) isn’t nearly as bullish. It’s also worth noting home runs have become an extreme problem for Martin, who has yielded 1.95 per nine after averaging a bit more than one over the same span in 2018. Oddly enough, Martin’s newfound HR troubles have come despite a massive groundball increase. He has induced them 49 percent of the time in 2019 after doing so at a 40.5 percent clip last season.

Red Sox To Activate Mitch Moreland; Could Place Michael Chavis On IL

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The Red Sox plan to activate first baseman Mitch Moreland from the injured list Tuesday, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe tweets. Unfortunately for Boston, though, it could lose infielder Michael Chavis at the same time. Manager Alex Cora isn’t ruling out an IL placement for Chavis, who’s dealing with back spasms, according to Speier.

Moreland has endured two IL stints going back to late May, the latest being for a quad strain. The 33-year-old has taken just two at-bats since May 26 as a result of his injuries. Moreland had gotten off to a nice start before then, with a .225/.316/.543 line (115 wRC+) and 13 home runs in 174 plate appearances.

The long-term absences of Moreland and fellow injured first baseman Steve Pearce left the position to Chavis – who had been at second base – for the past several weeks. While Chavis has hammered 16 HRs in 331 PA, a recent skid has dropped the 23-year-old rookie’s overall slash to a league-average .255/.329/.450 (100 wRC+). Chavis hasn’t played since Saturday.

Astros’ Jeff Luhnow On Rotation, Bullpen, Catcher

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The Astros trounced the division-rival Athletics on Monday to up their lead in the American League West to 7 1/2 games. With the AL’s second-best record (65-37), Houston doesn’t need much outside help, but general manager Jeff Luhnow is unsurprisingly considering upgrades as the July 31 trade deadline nears. Luhnow on Monday discussed a couple areas the Astros may be able to improve by the deadline. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle was among those to cover his comments (Twitter links: 1, 2, 3).

As was the case two-plus weeks ago, Luhnow remains open to bolstering his team’s staff with “a playoff rotation starter.”  However, as things stand, Luhnow believes the club “can win a seven-game series against any playoff team right now.” The Astros already have a built-in advantage going into a potential playoff series with superstars Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole atop their rotation. Soft-tossing lefty Wade Miley is a lot less exciting than either Verlander or Cole, but Miley has turned in a quality season in his own right. The rest of the Astros’ rotation is far less certain, though, especially with injured No. 4 starter Brad Peacock likely out until at least mid-August with shoulder problems.

The Astros’ rotation has handed off to a bullpen that’s currently devoid of a left-hander, which is something Luhnow could find in the coming days. But Luhnow isn’t discriminating based on a reliever’s handedness.

“(In the) bullpen, we think about the best relievers — we don’t care if they’re left or right — and being a good reliever in this league means you have to get both sides out,” he said. “We’re not really looking for a lefty specialist or a reliever just cause he’s a lefty.” 

It’s worth noting that several of the Astros’ most notable relievers (Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressly, Will Harris, Hector Rondon and Collin McHugh) have neutralized lefties this year despite lacking the platoon advantage. In all, the Astros’ bullpen has been a top-notch unit, ranking third in ERA, fourth in K/BB ratio and eighth in FIP.

Houston hasn’t been as fortunate behind the plate, where its catchers have combined for a meager 0.8 fWAR. Offseason pickup Robinson Chirinos started the year at a breakneck pace, but despite a three-hit game Monday, his production has plummeted in recent weeks. Furthermore, he’s not a well-regarded defensive option. As a light-hitting defensive maven, backup Max Stassi represents Chirinos’ polar opposite. Stassi has been borderline unplayable because of his toothless bat this year, though, which may have played a part in the Astros’ recent interest in Martin Maldonado. He’s now unavailable, having gone from the Royals to the Cubs in a trade last week, but the Astros haven’t stopped checking a thin market for catchers.

“We are also looking at the market and seeing if there’s an upgrade available,” Luhnow said of the position. “But it would mean one of the two guys we have now would not be on this team. We have to consider that pretty carefully.”
Neither Chirinos nor Stassi can simply be sent to the minors (not that the former’s even a candidate). Stassi, seemingly the player who will be in greater danger of losing his job in the event the Astros add a catcher, is out of options.

Yandy Diaz Suffers Foot Injury

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Rays corner infielder Yandy Diaz exited the team’s game Monday after fouling a ball off his left foot, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links). Diaz was in “severe pain” after the game and will undergo an X-ray, manager Kevin Cash said.

An injured list stint for Diaz would be the latest source of unwelcome news for the slumping Rays. The club has held a playoff position for most of the team, but it has lost six of seven – including a defeat in a pivotal game against the Red Sox on Monday – and is now outside the wild-card picture by 1 1/2. The Rays still boast a solid 57-46 record, though, thanks in part to Diaz. Acquired over the winter from the Indians, Diaz has held his own during his first full season in the majors. Through 339 plate appearances, the 27-year-old has batted .271/.344/.482 (119 wRC+) with 14 home runs and 1.6 fWAR.

While the productive Diaz may be on his way to the shelf, the silver lining for Tampa Bay is that third baseman Matt Duffy is on the verge of activation. Duffy, who put up a 2.4-fWAR season in 2018, has sat out all year because of hamstring and back issues. He and impressive newcomer Mike Brosseau could help replace Diaz, though losing Diaz would be another blow to an infield that’s already without Rookie of the Year candidate Brandon Lowe and Daniel Robertson because of injuries.

Zack Wheeler Scheduled To Return Friday

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The Mets expect to get arguably their top trade chip back before the July 31 deadline. Right-hander Zack Wheeler, on the injured list since July 15 with a shoulder impingement, is slated to start Friday against Pittsburgh, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. Wheeler got through a bullpen session unscathed on Sunday and is “likely” to throw live batting practice Tuesday, according to Puma.

Assuming Wheeler does make it back by the end of the week, he’ll have one opportunity to prove he’s healthy prior to the end-of-month trade cutoff. Wheeler’s arm looked plenty lively over the season’s first few months, but his injury has prevented him from taking a major league mound since July 7. Before then, an array of teams showed reported interest in Wheeler, who stands out as the non-contending Mets’ best impending free agent and one of the most appealing soon-to-be FAs in baseball. The Mets could keep Wheeler and issue him a qualifying offer in the offseason, meaning they’d still get something for his departure, though a healthy version seems more likely to wind up on the move in the next week-plus.

The 29-year-old Wheeler’s just a season removed from serving as one of the NL’s top starters, as he logged a 3.31 ERA/3.25 FIP with 4.2 fWAR/3.9 bWAR in 182 1/3 innings. His output was all the more impressive considering Wheeler barely pitched from 2015-17 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in the first of those years.

Now four years away from his procedure, Wheeler hasn’t enjoyed as much success as he did in 2018. Thus far, Wheeler has pitched to a 4.69 ERA through 119 innings, having seen his HR/9 climb from .69 last season to 1.21 this season. But Wheeler remains among the game’s hardest throwers, and the rest of his numbers are vastly more encouraging than what could be a somewhat deceiving ERA. Wheeler’s 9.83 K/9, 2.57 BB/9 and 3.67 FIP all suggest he’d help a contender down the stretch. It appears he’ll have a chance to make his case Friday.

Yankees Have Interest In Mike Minor

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As they continue to weigh a variety of possible pitching additions, the Yankees are taking a look at Rangers lefty Mike Minor, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). But that interest comes with a few complications.

The Yanks are one of ten teams to which Minor can block a swap pursuant to his contract, per Rosenthal. Minor’s willingness to waive his rights isn’t known, but he certainly doesn’t sound particularly anxious to leave town.

Minor’s continued strong work makes his contract rights quite appealing. He’s earning just $9.5MM this year and next, making the 31-year-old a cost-efficient target. Pinching pennies isn’t strictly necessary for the Yankees, but the organization is as aware of value concepts as any and has an obvious desire to avoid unnecessary luxury tax complications (now and in the future).

It’s not surprising, then, that the Bronx Bombers have sent notable front-office member Tim Naehring out to see Minor’s past two outings. That could be interpreted as a tell, though Rosenthal rightly points out that Naehring and the team’s other trusted evaluators have also put in plenty of time watching other arms as well.

It is still tough to guess just what direction the Yankees will take. If Luis Severino is able to make it back, even if not in a full-blown starter’s capacity, the club will have enviable depth with James Paxton and Domingo German featuring as capable postseason starters and a variety of other multi-inning hurlers on hand. It could certainly stand to add a marquee arm to front the staff, but it’s fair to wonder if that’s really what Minor is. There’s unquestionably a rotation need in 2020 as well, but perhaps that shouldn’t be the priority right now. The price for Minor will be steep — in addition to other demand, the Rangers will value his rights for next season — and there is an argument to be made that the Yanks ought instead to utilize their resources on other targets, either posting less in prospect value for a rental hurler or somehow concocting a bigger move for a truly top-shelf starter.

Ken Giles’ Elite Season

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Blue Jays closer Ken Giles is one of the majors’ top trade candidates going into the July 31 deadline, and for good reason. The right-hander’s eminently effective, making a reasonable salary ($6.3MM), under control for another year after this one, and playing for a rebuilding team that’s likely to move its best trade chips in the next week-plus. The 28-year-old has been connected to four teams in the rumor mill thus far (the Red Sox, Yankees, Twins and Braves), but it stands to reason he’s on even more contenders’ radars. Any club acquiring Giles would be getting an accomplished late-game option who happens to be amid a career year.

Giles entered 2019 off a strong half-decade run divided among the Phillies, Astros and Blue Jays, though he lost his place in the Houston organization amid a somewhat rocky campaign last year. Two-plus months before the Astros traded him to the Jays in a July deal for fellow reliever Roberto Osuna (who hadn’t yet returned from a domestic violence suspension), Giles made headlines for punching himself in the face on the heels of a rough outing against the Yankees. That was one of several uncharacteristically subpar nights for Giles, who pitched to a personal-worst 4.65 ERA across 50 1/3 innings. But hope wasn’t lost for Giles – he saved all 26 of his attempts, posted excellent strikeout and walk rates (9.48 K/9, 1.25 BB/9) and logged a 3.08 FIP.

This season, not only has Giles continued to fan and walk hitters at appealing clips, but his previously enticing ability to prevent runs has returned. A jaw-dropping, career-high 15.55 K/9 – which ranks third among all relievers – has helped Giles pitch to a microscopic 1.64 ERA/1.46 FIP over 33 innings. Unsurprisingly, his swinging-strike percentage (20.8) also ranks among the elite (second).

With Giles missing bats at a ridiculous rate, he has saved 14 of 15 chances, continuing his near-automatic run in that department dating back to last season. Meantime, Giles’ walk rate has more than doubled (2.73 BB/9), but it’s still respectable; it’s also right in line with his career figure (2.72).

As you’d expect from a look at his bottom-line production, Giles has been tough on same-handed and lefty hitters this year. However, it’s righties (.286 wOBA) who have actually caused him more trouble than lefties (.219). Additionally, one would think Giles’ 97 mph fastball has driven his success this season, yet it’s his slider which has flummoxed hitters far more. They’ve put up a pitiful .138 xwOBA/.112 wOBA against Giles’ slider and a much better .367/.340 versus his fastball, according to Statcast. Giles, understandably, has changed how he deploys the two pitches. He turned to his four-seamer almost 59 percent of the time a year ago, but the mark has dropped below 49.0 in 2019. On the other hand, Giles’ slider usage has shot from 40.9 percent to 48.7.

A 7-plus percent decrease in groundball rate has come with Giles’ new pitch mix, but it hasn’t led to more home runs against. To the contrary, his HR-to-fly ball rate (7.1 percent) is outstanding and roughly 4 percent better than it was in 2018. It helps, of course, that Giles has upped his infield fly rate from 7.5 to 14.3 in a year’s time. Pop-ups represent weak contact, so it’s hardly a shock Giles ranks in the league’s upper echelon in hard-hit rate against (71st percentile), per Statcast, which shows his .230 expected weighted on-base average is even weaker than his .256 real wOBA. Just four other pitchers have bettered Giles in the xwOBA category.

Considering Giles’ ERA/FIP and wOBA/xwOBA gaps, not to mention the .365 batting average on balls in play he has yielded, his all-world 2019 production may be unlucky to some extent. No matter what, it’s clear this version of Giles has been on the shortlist of the game’s premier relievers. As a result, the Blue Jays may be in position to add at least one top 100 prospect to their farm system in a Giles trade. Not bad for a Toronto team that got Giles a year ago for a reliever it was eager to cut ties with.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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