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MLBTR Poll: The Case Of Kevin Pillar

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In MLBTR’s recent projection of arbitration salaries for the 2020 season, Giants outfielder Kevin Pillar was penciled in to receive a $9.7MM salary award in his third and final trip through arbitration this offseason.

A cursory glance at Pillar’s stats would render this to be a reasonable projection–and an eminently manageable sum for Farhan Zaidi’s front office in San Francisco. After all, Pillar hit 21 home runs in 2019, after an early April trade from Toronto deposited the veteran Pillar into the Giants’ everyday lineup. Over 161 games, the outfielder would come to lead the team not just in homers, but also in RBIs, stolen bases, and runs scored, all while playing respectable defense in center and right field.

Then again, the operative word there was “cursory”–a deeper look at Pillar’s numbers indicate his effective value may not match his arbitrational value.

While Pillar did accrue some nice counting stats in 2019, his 2.8% walk rate in 2019 resulted in a ghastly .287 OBP. Weighted metrics suggest he was a squarely sub-average offensive performer overall (85 wRC+ in 645 plate appearances); then again, Pillar’s never been known as a plus performer at the plate, as his 86 career wRC+ would suggest. Though the California product does still offer excess value on the bases (6.0 Fangraphs BSR recording in 2019), it’s not as if the club can place a premium on his defense: his 0.3 UZR and -3 DRS marks last year were all-too-typical for an outfielder on the wrong side of the 30-year age marker.

Giving due credit to intangible considerations like veteran leadership and Pillar’s general reputation as a good teammate, Zaidi’s FO is ultimately looking at a slightly sub-par-hitting outfielder who, given a well-rounded game, slates as a roughly average regular. Just how much such a player is worth is, as always, a question of what the club’s recourse would be if they ultimately decided to go in another direction.

Looking to the free agent market, the Giants are unlikely to find an appealing host of options. Starling Marte figures to have his $11.5MM club option exercised, Brett Gardner doesn’t project as much of an upgrade from a performance or value standpoint, and, after that, the club will likely find a charming menagerie of former full-time players like Jon Jay, Billy Hamilton, and Juan Lagares. Not exactly a group to build a season-ticket sales pitch around.

On the trade front, Zaidi could enter the Mookie Betts sweepstakes–except for the fact that such a one-year move would hinge on the belief that the Giants are ready to contend in 2020, which would be hard to support after a 77-85 season. If the World Series-bound Nationals are intent on making marginal moves, it’s conceivable that a player like Michael A. Taylor could be pried away, but Taylor might be best suited for his current part-time, defense-and-speed role until he’s proven otherwise. Aside from that, “average” center fielders are not as plentiful as one might assume.

Then again, there is a third option, courtesy of Kerry Crowley of The Mercury News–San Francisco could try to hammer out an extension with a slightly lower AAV (link). Crowley suggests offering a one-year deal with a club option for 2021 totaling a potential $13MM-$15MM in value. This option, admittedly, does make some sense as a half-measure approach. The Giants, arguably the prestige org of the new millennium, could continue to run out a serviceable center fielder while it continues to try to identify the building blocks for its next championship team. No faded former starters, no overmatched prospects forced into full-time duty, no crippling long-term commitment.

So, on the balance, which route should Zaidi take this offseason in regard to the veteran Pillar? (Poll link for app users.)

AL Notes: Red Sox, ALCS

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Although Boston owner John Henry stated last month that the Red Sox were going to begin by “looking outward” in their search for a new GM/President, Rob Bradford of WEEI believes there is a “growing belief” around baseball that the club will ultimately hand the reins to an internal candidate (link). Although no sources are named in Bradford’s report, the silence surrounding Boston’s hiring search leads the writer to believe that the club may look inward in search of Dave Dombrowski’s successor. As Bradford points out, it’s possible that Henry’s comments were made with half a mind toward luring one of Mike Hazen, Theo Epstein, or Andrew Friedman to Beantown. Now that those potential candidates are staying put, it seems reasonable to wonder if ownership might be evaluating which of the four people currently running Boston’s baseball ops–Eddie Romero, Brian O’Halloran, Zack Scott and Raquel Ferreira–would be best suited for supreme leadership.

A serious offseason agenda will await whoever ultimately lands the job in Boston. The club has a stated goal of limboing under the CBT “luxury tax” line–an initiative that should prove mighty tough with both big contracts (David Price, Chris Sale) and forthcoming arb raises (Mookie Betts) on the 2020 ledger.

In other news from the American League…

  • Mother Nature gave baseball an unscheduled rest day on Wednesday when she decided to pour vociferous showers along the East Coast–could she also have handed the Astros a competitive advantage in the ALCS? This is one question explored by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, who notes that the pause in the action has allowed manager AJ Hinch to skip Wednesday’s planned Jose Urquidy-plus-bullpen game (link). Instead, the ’Stros will skip straight to a Justin Verlander/Zack Greinke 1-2 combo for games 4 and 5. “As soon as we can use our best pitchers, the better for us,” Hinch told reporters via teleconference. “It was an easy decision.” The rain delay will force both teams to play the next four games without delay (if games 6 and 7 prove necessary). This state of affairs figures to favor Houston, considering that their rotation makes them slightly less bullpen-reliant than New York. Of course, October is where the unexpected so often comes to pass, so it’s important to remember that Rome’s forecast is exactly that.

 

Tim Bogar Linked To Mets Managerial Opening

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According to a tweet from Jon Heyman of MLB Network, Tim Bogar, first base coach for the Nationals, is under consideration for the open Mets managerial seat (link). It is not clear if Bogar has interviewed for the position, but Barry Svrugla of the Washington Post confirms that Bogar is “involved to some degree” with New York (link).

Being that third base coach Bob Henley was linked to the Padres opening today, it seems the World Series-bound Nats are in danger of having their coaching table rightly pillaged by the rest of the league. Bogar, for his part, offers a pretty sterling resumé, as far as coaches go. The 52-year-old, Chicago-bred baseball man has worked on the coaching staffs of managerial big-shots like Joe Maddon, Terry Francona, Bobby Valentine, and Ron Washington. He earned the opportunity to serve as Texas’ interim manager in 2014 after Washington stepped down, leading the Rangers to a 14-8 record in the season’s final month. Bogar also has spent a little time as a front office assistant to Jerry DiPoto while the latter was in Anaheim, and, of course, logged a 700-game playing career that began with–you guessed it–the Mets.

If interviewed, Bogar would become the seventh man to sit down with New York brass since Mickey Callaway was dismissed on Oct 3. To this point, Diamondbacks player development director Mike Bell, Yankees assistant Carlos Beltran, former MLB manager Joe Girardi, ESPN analyst Eduardo Perez, Twins bench coach Derek Shelton, and Mets quality control coach Luis Rojas have been reported as Mets interviewees.

Hernan Perez Elects Free Agency

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Veteran infielder Hernan Perez has elected for free agency, choosing to forego an outright assignment from the Brewers.

Perez, 28, was designated for assignment and outrighted previously this summer, although he ultimately hung around the Milwaukee farm and was subsequently selected for the active roster again in September. Formerly a quasi-regular in Milwaukee, Perez was limited to just 246 plate appearances in the majors this year, finishing the season with a .228/.262/.379 line (62 wRC+). Though he’s recorded a sub-par 73 wRC+ across 1800+ MLB plate appearances, Perez did flash some tantalizing speed back in 2016, when he swiped 34 bags in 123 games for the Brew Crew.

The versatile Perez is almost certain to latch on somewhere for 2020, as he offers one of the most flexible gloves in the game. Even in limited duty in 2019, the Venezuelan logged time at every single spot on the diamond, save for catcher. Milwaukee’s 40-man roster count now sits at 39.

Angels Considering Mike Butcher For Pitching Coach Role

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Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports that the Angels are considering Mike Butcher for the club’s open pitching coach position (link).

Butcher, who pitched for four seasons with the then-California Angels from 1992 to 1995, has served as a pitching coach for the last fourteen seasons in the major leagues. Recently dismissed after a four-year run in the Arizona dugout, Butcher previously held stints with the Rays in 2006 and with Anaheim’s club from 2007 to 2015–so Butcher’s hire would represent something of a homecoming.

Of course, that stop in Tampa coincided with Joe Maddon’s time there, so it would be apropos for the Angels to welcome back two former franchise members with a working familiarity with one another. LA’s previous pitching coach, Doug White, was fired after the org helped manager Brad Ausmus to the door at September’s end. Maddon will also be in search of a new bench coach in the coming months.

Reds Claim Josh Smith, Designate Juan Graterol For Assignment

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4:45 pm: The Marlins have announced Smith’s claim, with an addendum indicating that Miami has also outrighted catcher Tyler Heineman and righty Hector Noesi to the Triple-A New Orleans roster. This puts Miami’s 40-man roster count at 37.

2:47 pm: The Reds have claimed pitcher Josh Smith off of waivers from the Marlins, according to a tweet from C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (link). In a corresponding move, Cincinnati has designated catcher Juan Graterol for assignment.

The Marlins had claimed the left-handed Smith off of waivers from the Indians on Sept 14, making his time in the Miami organization exceedingly brief. Occasionally referred to as “Josh D. Smith” in order to avoid confusion, the lefty is a soft-tossing reliever with a largely fastball/slider dependent repertoire.  The 30-year-old played in both the Pirates and Red Sox organizations before making his big league debut with Cleveland in 2019; he ultimately made 14 appearances between the Indian and Marlin pens, logging a 6.39 ERA (4.32 FIP) in a small sample of 12.2 innings. Amir Garrett is the only lefty on-hand in the Cincinnati bullpen, so Smith could be a relatively no-cost flier for a club looking to broaden its mix-and-match capabilities.

The 30-year-old Graterol first came up to the bigs with the Angels in 2016, but he’s never really been given an extended look in the majors. Across parts of three seasons, he’s received just 129 plate appearances at the game’s highest level, logging a meek .218/.227/.266 line with zero home runs. He spent most of 2019 at Triple-A in the Reds organization, logging a .249/.301/.325 slash through 226 plate appearances.

 

Quick Hits: Girardi, Signs, Angels

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For those in the mood for a game of “connect the dots”, today’s news regarding the USA Baseball national team should put your pencils to the ready. Joe Girardi, previously the USA team’s manager, has officially stepped down in advance of the “Premier 12” Olympic qualifier, according to this tweet from Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe (Twitter link). Scott Brosius, longtime Yankee and a two-time Olympic gold medalist in his own right, will manage the American side moving forward.

While those obsessed with the sport of Olympic baseball will find this to be a cataclysmic development, the rest of us will feel inclined to view this announcement in light of its implications on the MLB managerial market. While Girardi himself has not issued a statement regarding his decision to step down from USA duties, it might be inferred that he could be prepping to accept a job as skipper of a big league club. Girardi, who has not managed in the bigs since his contract with the Yankees expired in 2017, has recently interviewed for the Cubs, Mets, and Phillies openings. Keep track of all managerial maneuverings with MLBTR’s Managerial Search Tracker.

More news from around the game on this eerily baseball-free Wednesday…

  • From the “unwritten rules” department: according to SNY’s Andy Martino, the Yankees dugout was incensed during the course of Game 1, when several Astros players were heard whistling in advance of certain pitches on Saturday night. “I would consider whistling a tired act that goes beyond what is acceptable,” an unnamed major league executive told Martino. “If the Astros or anyone else was doing it, it would be considered a break in the unwritten rules. I have not been part of any team that used a whistle from the dugout for pitch type or location.” Of course, sign stealing is a time-honored part of baseball gamesmanship that has taken many different forms over the past few centuries; recently, MLB has even considered the implementation of on-field earpieces for pitchers and catchers, according to some 2018 reportage on the part of Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston.
  • In our recent poll “Executives Under Pressure”, MLBTR readers voted on which club GM they thought would most be feeling the pressure in 2020 to put out a winning club–or else. Angels GM Billy Eppler placed third in the polling (behind Neal Huntington of the Pirates and Matt Klentak of the Phillies), with 11.81% of readers positing that LA’s fifth-year GM will likely be maneuvering to keep his job this offseason. In the view of The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, today’s hiring of Joe Maddon to the club’s manager seat might be further evidence toward Eppler’s occupational insecurity (link). “From every indication, owner Arte Moreno drove the hiring of Maddon, and by doing so, undercut his GM,” writes Rosenthal. Eppler will be tasked with several challenges heading into this winter, including the reinforcement of a pitching staff recently decimated by injuries and the loss of hurler Tyler Skaggs.

Latest On Padres’ Managerial Search

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The Padres could be nearing the final steps in their search for a new manager, as two candidates will receive second interviews for the position.  Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link) report that Jayce Tingler is in San Diego today, while Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Ron Washington will also meet with the team later this week.  These secondary interviews will involve Padres ownership for the first time, as executive chairman Ron Fowler and general partner Peter Seidler will be meeting with Tingler and Washington.

It isn’t known if any of the other known candidates from the Padres’ first round of interviews will also be brought back for a second meeting, or if Tingler and Washington are the only two finalists for the job (or if any candidates could still surface in the future).  As per Acee, Fowler and Seidler will give their input but the final hiring is with GM A.J. Preller, which makes for an interesting dynamic given Preller’s connection to both candidates.

The expectation was that San Diego would go with an experienced former big league skipper with their new hire, after failing to find success with a first-time manager in Andy Green.  Of the five people interviewed for the job, however, only Washington and Brad Ausmus had any substantial MLB experience.  Tingler and Nationals third base coach Bob Henley have only managed minor league clubs, while Padres bench coach Rod Barajas served as the team’s interim manager for the final eight games of the season after Green was fired.

If experience is still seen as a key factor in the Padres’ decision-making, Washington would have the clear advantage, with a 664-611 record and two AL pennants on his resume as the Rangers’ manager from 2007-14.  This overlapped with Preller’s time working in the Texas front office, though Preller also worked with Tingler during this same period.  Tingler was a manager for the Rangers’ Dominican Summer League and Arizona League clubs, and also worked as the Rangers’ minor league field coordinator from 2012-14.  Tingler’s current role is player development field coordinator for Texas, after working in jobs ranging from assistant GM to interim bench coach over the last five seasons.

AL Central Notes: Matheny, Twins, Indians

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October 16 is an important date in the histories of the Royals and White Sox, as the two teams each clinched the American League pennant on this day back in 1985 and 2005, respectively.  Kansas City recorded a 6-2 win over the Blue Jays in Game Seven of the 1985 ALCS, completing the comeback after being down 3-1 in the series and winning the second AL pennant in club history.  The Royals went on to take the further step of capturing the franchise’s first World Series that came October, topping the Cardinals in another seven-game set.  The 2005 ALCS was also Chicago’s first step en route to a World Series title, as the White Sox beat the Angels in five games before sweeping the Astros in the Fall Classic.  2005 ended a pair of long droughts for the White Sox, as it marked the club’s first pennant since 1959 and its first World Series title since 1917.

News from around the AL Central…

  • The Giants, Padres, and Mets have all shown some interest in Royals special advisor Mike Matheny as a possible candidate to fill their managerial vacancies, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes.  Matheny hasn’t been linked to any of those clubs for an interview, however, and “word has it that the Padres are going another direction,” Flanagan writes.  [UPDATE: Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Giants hadn’t spoken to Matheny as of three days ago.]  All three of those teams have already amassed a long list of candidates for interviews, as you can follow via MLB Trade Rumors’ central post for the many rumors and reports floating around concerning the offseason managerial carousel.  Matheny has also been widely tabbed as the leading contender to be the Royals’ next manager, and while Flanagan notes that Matheny’s hiring is “not as certain as it once was,” the former Cardinals skipper still appears to be “the odds-on favorite” for the job.
  • Byron Buxton stands out as a prime extension candidate this offseason, MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park opines, looking at the Twins’ model in extending Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco last spring.  Both of those players were coming off solid but not surefire breakout seasons (Polanco’s year was also marred by an 80-game PED suspension) in 2018, while Buxton is similarly coming off something of a mixed 2019 campaign.  He hit .262/.314/.513 with 10 homers in 295 PA while contributing excellent baserunning and center field defense, though Buxton’s year was marred by injuries, including season-ending shoulder surgery that could cause him to miss the start of Spring Training.  With this health uncertainty in mind, Buxton could have interest in locking in a long-term payday, though he would be foregoing potentially big arbitration raises in both 2021 and 2022 (Buxton has three arb years left as a Super Two player).  Buxton has also achieved some financial security already, with close to $9.5MM in career earnings that includes his $6MM signing bonus as the second overall pick of the 2021 draft.  Beyond Buxton, Park figures Jose Berrios and Miguel Sano are also extension candidates.
  • Assuming the Indians are no longer cutting costs, the Athletic’s Zack Meisel (subscription required) estimates that the Tribe could have roughly $17MM to spend this winter.  The current payroll sits at $102MM, as Meisel calculates based on current salaries, some minimum contracts, and MLBTR’s projected salaries for Cleveland’s arbitration-eligible players (with a few non-tender candidates not counted).  That leaves the Tribe short of their $119.5MM Opening Day payroll from 2019, giving the club some extra cash to pursue needed help in the infield and outfield.  Meisel also guesses the Indians could look into some future payroll certainty by discussing extensions with Mike Clevinger and/or Shane Bieber.

Angels Hire Joe Maddon

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11:24AM: Maddon’s contract is a three-year deal worth $12MM, Jeff Fletcher tweets.

10:03AM: The Angels have hired Joe Maddon to be the team’s next manager.  Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group reported (Twitter link) that an agreement had been reached, after MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported earlier today that Maddon and the Angels were closing in on a deal.  Official terms of the contract haven’t been released, though ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers reported that Maddon is expected to earn roughly $12MM-$15MM over a three-year deal.

“We are thrilled that Joe is coming back home and bringing an exciting brand of baseball to our fans,” Angels GM Billy Eppler said in an official press release from the team. “Every stop he has made throughout his managerial career he has built a culture that is focused on winning while also allowing his players to thrive. We believe Joe will be a great asset for our Club and look forward to him leading the team to another World Series Championship.”

Joe MaddonThe signing represents something of a homecoming for Maddon, who was a member of the Angels organization from 1975-2005.  After playing four seasons of minor league ball in the Halos’ farm system, Maddon transitioned into scouting, coaching, and managing within the team’s minor league ranks before joining the Major League coaching staff prior to the 1994 season.  Maddon worked as the first base coach and bench coach, serving in the latter role in 2002 during the Angels’ World Series championship year.

From there, Maddon went on to amass a 1225-1044 record over 14 seasons managing the Rays and Cubs, a resume that includes eight postseason appearances, four division titles, both an American League and National League pennant, and (of course) the 2016 World Series title that ended the Cubs’ championship drought after 107 years.

The 65-year-old Maddon has developed a reputation as one of the game’s more innovative motivators and thinkers, though as far back as a year ago, it seemed like rumors were already swirling that 2019 would be Maddon’s last year at Wrigley Field.  Those rumors came to fruition after the Cubs missed the postseason for the first time in Maddon’s tenure (though the team still had a winning record at 84-78), and the Cubs announced that Maddon wouldn’t be brought back on a new contract for 2020 and beyond.

This technically isn’t Maddon’s first time managing the Angels, as his long tenure with the club included two separate stints (totaling 51 games) as an interim manager.  But now he’ll officially take over in the dugout following the abrupt and rather surprising dismissal of Brad Ausmus, who was let go just one season into a three-year deal with Los Angeles.  Speculation immediately began to build about a Maddon/Angels reunion as soon as Maddon’s parting with the Cubs became official, and since Ausmus’ firing came quickly after Maddon became available, it seemed like it was only just a matter of time before Maddon returned to Anaheim.  Still, the Angels did some due diligence in their search, also speaking to former Buck Showalter, John Farrell, and Johnny Washington about the manager’s job.  Showalter was the runner-up for the position, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.

Maddon also received some interest from the Padres about their managerial vacancy, though seemingly no official connection between the two sides was ever made.  With eight teams in search for new managers this offseason, the fact that Maddon only formally interviewed with the Angels could indicate that they were each other’s top choice all along, as Maddon would have seemingly been a fit for several other teams in need for new bench bosses.  The Phillies, for instance, have been looking at veteran managers and theoretically would’ve been a prime fit for Maddon, a Pennsylvania native.

The Angels are coming off a 72-90 record in Ausmus’ only season as manager, a disappointing year on the field that was overshadowed by the tragic death of Tyler Skaggs.  Maddon will now be taking over an organization still reeling from Skaggs’ loss, as well as potential future ramifications that could stem from the circumstances surrounding his death.

In terms of on-field matters, the Angels haven’t had a winning record since 2015 and have reached the postseason only once in the last ten seasons (a three-game sweep at the hands of the Royals in the 2014 ALDS).  It isn’t a sterling record for any team, though the Angels’ lack of success particularly stands out given the presence of Mike Trout.  Despite having baseball’s best player for the bulk of the decade, Los Angeles has been consistently hampered by injuries and a lack of return from high-priced acquisitions (such as Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Vernon Wells, and C.J. Wilson).

Between Maddon’s hiring and the fact that Eppler is only under contract for one more season, the Angels seem poised for an aggressive offseason in order to finally get back into contention.  The Halos are widely expected to pursue starting pitching, and the position player side could be improved from within should stars like Justin Upton or Andrelton Simmons rebound from down years.  Shohei Ohtani is also expected to return to the mound following Tommy John surgery, giving L.A. the full benefit of his two-way skills as both a starter and a designated hitter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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