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2018-19 Market Snapshot: Center Field

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This is the latest installment in our Market Snapshot series. After checking on corner outfield options earlier tonight, we’ll look up the middle.

Teams In Need

Unless they move Dee Gordon back to the outfield, the Mariners have a hole. While the Giants have hopes for Steven Duggar, they’ll surely be on the lookout for other options this winter. Just what kind of player they’ll be interested in will depend upon who they hire to run their baseball ops department and what direction they take.

It’s arguable that several other NL West clubs should be looking up the middle, too. The Rockies could certainly stand to bump Charlie Blackmon to a corner spot, while the Diamondbacks will be looking for new blood. With Arizona potentially taking a rebuilding approach, of course, a big expenditure would seem unlikely.

While the position isn’t an area of need for the Phillies, all bets are off in Philadelphia. Just how much of a need there’ll be for the Indians isn’t known, though it’ll be hard for the team to count on a return from Leonys Martin. The Athletics were fairly unsettled up the middle, but perhaps saw enough in Ramon Laureano to more or less turn the job over to him for a full run. Perhaps there are some scenarios where the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, or Astros decide to shift around some pieces and pursue a center fielder, though that’d seemingly be dependent upon opportunity rather than need.

Whether the Reds believe they’re ready to begin winning could help decide their moves in center. An upgrade would certainly be in order if the organization wants to ramp up toward contention. Otherwise, the Rangers and White Sox aren’t settled in center and could potentially be opportunistic buyers. The Royals and Marlins are less likely to spend, and have some youthful players to try out, but also don’t have clear solutions on hand.

Free Agents

While this class doesn’t have any stars, it features at least one quality regular option in A.J. Pollock. While his durability remains a question, and he failed to sustain a hot start over the course of 2018, Pollock figures to command a strong, multi-year commitment.

Despite a middling 2018 season, sturdy veteran Brett Gardner is probably the best alternative. If his option isn’t picked up and traded, he’ll bring his typically steady lefty bat to the free agent market.

Otherwise, the market contains timeshare options at most. Players like Carlos Gomez, Austin Jackson, Jon Jay, Adam Jones, Cameron Maybin, Gerardo Parra, Denard Span, and Chris Young likely won’t be considered as even semi-regular options up the middle. Though all have spent significant time as everyday options in center over the years, none has shown the ability to do so productively of late. Indeed, it’s debatable whether any but Jay, Maybin, and perhaps Gomez will really be seen as realistic options to take the field in center after the defensive showings made in 2018.

Depth Options: Peter Bourjos, Gregor Blanco, Rajai Davis, Craig Gentry, Shane Robinson, Jake Smolinski, Matt Szczur, Eric Young Jr.

Trade Targets

Potential Regulars: It’s tough to know what the Rays are thinking, but Kevin Kiermaier is the only player they are locked into contractually. Given that he’s coming off of a subpar season, though, perhaps it’s likelier they’ll hold for the time being and hope he bounces back. The Blue Jays could consider dangling Kevin Pillar. Perhaps most plausibly of all, the Phillies could decide it’s time to move on from the enigmatic Odubel Herrera, who’d be of interest elsewhere.

Platoon/Bounceback Options: The Nationals could hang on to Michael Taylor as a reserve, but it’s also possible they’ve seen enough. Taylor has plenty of glove and runs well but remains an inconsistent performer at the plate. That description is true in an even more extreme form with regard to Billy Hamilton of the Reds, a fascinating player who is miscast as an everyday piece. The Yankees and Cardinals would surely like to find takers for Jacoby Ellsbury and Dexter Fowler, respectively, but it’s tough to either player moving except perhaps in some kind of bad contract swap.

Lamigo Monkeys To Post Wang Po-Jung

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Taiwan’s Lamigo Monkeys will post top slugger Wang Po-Jung, as the CPBL Stats website has covered. He will become the first player posted from the Chinese Professional Baseball League, which is Taiwan’s top circuit.

Wang, who recently turned 25, has generally posted outlandish stats even by the standards of the hitter-friendly CPBL. This year, he’s slashing .351/.446/.547 over 534 plate appearances — good for what CPBL Stats tabulates to be a 151 wRC+. That’s actually down quite a bit from his absurd 2017 levels, though it’s still near the top of the table leaguewide.

To this point, if he’s known at all to North American fans, it’s likely owing to his epic bat flips. But there’s reason to believe that Wang could ultimately end up playing in the majors. As Sung Min Kim wrote earlier this year for Fangraphs, MLB scouts have already taken a look and some believe he may have a future at the game’s highest level as a corner oufielder.

Of course, it could well be that Wang will first head to Japan for some further seasoning. The formal posting process will be open to bids for posting fees from both MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball clubs. As the CPBL Stats site explains, the Taiwanese league recently amended its rules to allow players to reach posting eligibility after just three years of service — thus increasing the likelihood of retaining top domestic amateur talent on the front end. It is not immediately clear whether the CPBL posting process will echo the preexisting system (uncapped bidding, negotiation with one team) or the newer rules regime that applies to MLB transfers from the NPB and Korea Baseball Organization. Major league organizations would be limited by international spending restrictions, as Wang has not played the requisite six professional seasons to be exempt.

2018-19 Market Snapshot: Corner Outfield

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This is the latest installment in our Market Snapshot series. Today, we move the discussion to the outfield grass.

Teams In Need

A number of contenders and 2019 hopefuls will lose quality corner outfielders to free agency this season, including the Nationals (Bryce Harper), Braves (Nick Markakis), Indians (Michael Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall), Rockies (Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra) and perhaps the Mariners (Denard Span). The Yankees are set to lose Andrew McCutchen and could potentially bid adieu to outfield stalwart Brett Gardner, though the organization has ample outfield depth to withstand those subtractions. The A’s rode a patchwork corner outfield mix to the postseason and could look at adding a more established upgrade.

Meanwhile, a number of clubs coming off disappointing 2018 campaigns will look to reload and try again in 2018, with the Giants, Pirates, Cardinals and Phillies among the teams that could look to add a corner outfield bat with hopes of contending in 2019. St. Louis, in particular, could be in the market for a left-handed-hitting right fielder based on president of baseball operations John Mozeliak’s recent comments. The Pirates, meanwhile, traded away Austin Meadows and have since lost Gregory Polanco into next summer following shoulder surgery. The Phillies are open to trading virtually anyone on the roster, so changes in the outfield are easy to imagine. How the Giants operate won’t be known until a new GM is in place, but their outfield mix leaves plenty to be desired regardless.

There are even several non-contenders who’ll simply need a veteran bat to plug in as a stopgap or an upside play; the White Sox, Royals, Tigers, Marlins and Orioles may simply want a low-cost veteran to join their rebuilding efforts.

Free Agents

Potential Regulars: Harper joins Manny Machado as a rare, star-caliber, 26-year-old free agent and will be a highly sought-after target by the market’s biggest spenders. The Nationals will surely at least consider a bid to retain him, but teams like the Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and Giants will all be connected to Harper to varying extents. The Cardinals, too, could be in play for him, though they’ve never spent at that level in the past.

Teams that can’t afford Harper or don’t wish to commit a likely precedent-setting contract to the former NL MVP will still have plenty of options from which to choose. Michael Brantley rebounded from a pair of injury-plagued seasons to remind teams that he’s among the game’s best pure hitters (.309/.364/.468 with a 9.5 percent strikeout rate). Andrew McCutchen’s overall numbers in San Francisco didn’t stand out, but his output was suppressed by the cavernous AT&T Park. Beyond that, he posted excellent hard-contact numbers, giving some hope for better days ahead, and turned things on during his late-season run with the Yanks. Nick Markakis got off to a blistering start in 2018 before settling to hit like the Nick Markakis one would expect over the final five months of the year. He’s still a useful semi-regular even if he couldn’t maintain his torrid April. A.J. Pollock would provide quality glovework and a solid bat in a corner, but most teams probably prefer to install him in center — at least for the first couple seasons of a surefire multi-year deal.

Brett Gardner would bring another quality glove to the corner market if the Yankees buy out his option, though he could also be a trade candidate. Denard Span showed he can still hit in 2018 and even hit lefties well, but there are questions about his glove. Adam Jones has fallen well shy of his former star-level production in recent seasons, but his track record could earn him significant at-bats even if his OBP woes and defensive question marks are more significant than ever.

Could Marwin Gonzalez fit into this bucket, too? Houston’s Swiss army knife can play all over the diamond, and while he’s more of an infielder, he has plenty of left field experience and could hold down the fort as a stopgap before moving to an infield spot or a super utility role down the line.

Platoon/Bench Bats: Some players, such as Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra, aren’t that far removed from being quality regulars but seem more likely to find themselves in limited roles next year. Jon Jay has emerged as something of a fourth outfielder extraordinaire in recent seasons, logging significant at-bats without a set role. The venerable Curtis Granderson can still hit righties, and perhaps that’s true of Matt Joyce as well, though injuries wrecked his 2018. Melky Cabrera showed he can still hit a bit, but doesn’t have much to offer in the field. Cameron Maybin had somewhat of the opposite issue. It’s also not impossible that someone gives Jose Bautista another look, though he’s more of a minor league deal candidate.

Depth: Peter Bourjos, Gregor Blanco, Rajai Davis, Craig Gentry, Brandon Guyer, Austin Jackson, Hunter Pence, JB Shuck, Matt Szczur, Chris Young

Trade Candidates

Corey Dickerson’s projected $8.4MM arbitration price tag might be a bit steep for the Pirates, especially considering his pedestrian second half of the season. He’s only controlled for one more year and didn’t have much value in last year’s trade market, though. As noted above, perhaps the Yankees will dangle Gardner ($12.5MM club option), given the depth they have surrounding him.

Arizona’s David Peralta is another productive but at least relatively expensive corner option who could hit the market. With a $7.7MM arb projection and two years of club control left for a D-backs team that’ll have to take a hard look at some degree of rebuild this winter, Peralta is a logical piece to market — especially considering his career year in 2018.

Kyle Schwarber’s name, at this point, feels to be a perennial fixture on the rumor circuit, and while his improved defense in 2018 makes him a better fit for the Cubs (and the NL in general), it also makes him more appealing to other clubs.

The Tigers have reportedly tried to extend Nicholas Castellanos on multiple occasions without success. He only has one year of club control remaining, so perhaps if they can’t work something out this time around they’ll more seriously consider moving him. His glovework is arguably the worst in baseball, but Castellanos can rake at the plate. Sticking in the AL Central, the ChiSox may have to sell low on Avisail Garcia, whose injury woes and dreadful 2018 season make him a non-tender candidate at this point.

Meanwhile, the Padres have more outfielders than they know what to do with. Wil Myers is best suited there or at first base but has been pushed to third by Eric Hosmer’s presence at first base and a bevy of other outfield options, including Franchy Cordero, Franmil Reyes, Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot and Travis Jankowski. It’d be more surprising if the Friars didn’t move an outfielder than if they did.

Rangers GM Jon Daniels has been candid about the possibility of moving a left-handed-hitting outfielder, with Nomar Mazara, Willie Calhoun, Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo and Drew Robinson all fitting that bill. There’s a logjam in Philly, too, where the Phils could look to move any of Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams or Aaron Altherr as they remake their lineup.

Similarly, the Brewers won’t have the luxury of stashing Keon Broxton and Domingo Santana in the minors in 2019, as both are out of options. Either or both could be shopped to other clubs, and the same is true of Eric Thames, who been squeezed out a bit by last offseason’s additions and the emergence of Jesus Aguilar. Elsewhere in the NL Central, the Cards will very likely be open to moving Jose Martinez, though his defense grades out terribly.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Dexter Fowler round out this section as albatross contracts their current clubs would jump at the chance to jettison, but it’s hard to see any team taking on that level of overpay. Fowler is owed $49.5MM through 2021, while Ellsbury is owed nearly the same sum ($47.28MM) through the end of the 2020 season.

The Mets’ GM Search

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Not long after longtime general manager Sandy Alderson stepped down from his post with the Mets earlier this summer, it became clear that the organization would conduct an extensive search to tab a new head of baseball operations. Assistant GM John Ricco and special assistants J.P. Ricciardi and Omar Minaya have been overseeing the team’s baseball operations department on an interim basis, but the Mets are now formally in search of a new department leader.

There have been multiple reports that owner Fred Wilpon is eyeing a more traditional general manager with scouting-based acumen (an “old school” type of executive, to use a broad description), while his son, COO Jeff Wilpon, is more focused on hiring an analytically-inclined executive that more closely aligns with recent industry trends. Per Jon Heyman of Fancred, the Mets are leaving some candidates with the sense that the new hire won’t quite enjoy a full slate of baseball ops power. As he puts it, the impression is that Omar Minaya or one of the other existing assistant GMs could retain control over player development functions. Team sources that spoke with Heyman denied that was the case, however.

As we’ve done with some recent managerial searches, we’ll track the majority of the updates in the Mets’ GM search here as they navigate the early phases of the process.

Latest Update — 10/16

  • The Mets have interviewed Dave Littlefield for their front office opening, according to Marc Carig of The Athletic (via Twitter). Currently the VP of player development with the Tigers, Littlefield once served as the GM of the Pirates. Of course, his seven-year run at the helm of the Pittsburgh roster was not terribly successful.

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Indians Discussing Extension With GM Mike Chernoff

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The Indians are in discussions with general manager Mike Chernoff about a contract extension, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter).

The likelihood of a deal being struck, and on what terms, isn’t yet apparent. Indeed, little is known about Chernoff’s existing contract status.

Chernoff was promoted to the GM seat just over three years ago, with Chris Antonetti ascending to become the president of baseball operations. But there was no indication at the time of the duration of his contract at that time, and it does not appear as if it has been reported in the interim.

It’s not hard to understand why the Cleveland organization remains happy with its front office mix. Since the pair of leaders were promoted, the ballclub has reeled off three-straight AL Central titles. While the team hasn’t been as successful in the postseason over the past two seasons as it was in 2016, when it nearly won the World Series, the overall results have been excellent.

While the front office has been allowed to dip into the pocketbook a bit more of late, the key drivers of the organization’s success have been a pair of superstars (Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez) and trio of outstanding starters (Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer) who were wisely compiled through the draft, international market, and trades. Chernoff and Antonetti will now be tasked with building a new group of accompanying players to keep the competitive baseball going.

Whether or not the talks with Chernoff are of recent vintage isn’t known. Neither is it evident whether Antonetti is also up for a new deal. It does seem that the negotiations with Chernoff may help explain why the New Jersey native declined to take an interview with the Mets, who are looking for new front office leadership.

Reds’ Managerial Search Enters Second Round

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The Reds are well into their search for a new manager, as has long been anticipated. Interim skipper Jim Riggleman took over after Bryan Price was fired and was at the helm for most of the 2018 season, but the club is determined to consider an array of candidates before naming the next full-time dugout leader. As we did last year with other openings of this kind, we’ll use this post to track the early developments in the hiring process in Cincinnati.

Latest Update — Oct. 17

  • Ausmus and Girardi are also still under consideration, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Both are slated for additional interviews, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon adds on Twitter. It seems they’ll join Bell to make up a group of three finalists, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link).
  • The Reds conducted interviews with the 12 candidates listed below and won’t speak with anyone else, per John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that there’s a growing sense that David Bell “has the inside track,” though he notes that Rocco Baldelli’s interview went “extremely well,” too, placing Baldelli “strongly in the mix.”

Click to view full overview of managerial search:

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MLB Issues Statement Clearing Astros Of Rule Violations

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2:40pm: Major League Baseball has issued the following statement on the investigation:

“Before the Postseason began, a number of Clubs called the Commissioner’s Office about sign stealing and the inappropriate use of video equipment. The concerns expressed related to a number of Clubs, not any one specific Club.  In response to these calls, the Commissioner’s Office reinforced the existing rules with all playoff Clubs and undertook proactive measures, including instituting a new prohibition on the use of certain in-stadium cameras, increasing the presence of operations and security personnel from Major League Baseball at all Postseason games and instituting a program of monitoring Club video rooms.

With respect to both incidents regarding a Houston Astros employee, security identified an issue, addressed it and turned the matter over to the Department of Investigations.  A thorough investigation concluded that an Astros employee was monitoring the field to ensure that the opposing Club was not violating any rules.  All Clubs remaining in the playoffs have been notified to refrain from these types of efforts and to direct complaints about any in-stadium rules violations to MLB staff for investigation and resolution.  We consider the matter closed.”

8:45am: There was no shortage of drama surrounding the Red Sox and Astros last night following a series of reports regarding an Astros employee who was removed from the photo well next to the Red Sox’ dugout in Fenway Park during Game 1 of the ALCS, as first reported by Danny Picard of the Metro News. The employee, reported by Yahoo’s Jeff Passan to be Kyle McLaughlin, was said to be pointing a small camera into the Boston dugout. However, both Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Joel Sherman of the New York Post report that the league’s investigation was concluded by the time Game 3 began. That probe actually revealed that McLaughlin was trying to determine whether the Red Sox themselves were illegally using video monitors to steal signs from the Astros.

Passan writes that the league has not punished the Astros for any illegal behavior following the investigation. Picard’s initial report even indicates that McLaughlin wasn’t removed from the stadium — only the media area in which he’d been set up. However, it does not appear as though this was an isolated incident.

Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer further reports that the Indians filed a complaint with the league against the Astros following a pair of similar incidents in the ALDS and also reached out to the Red Sox to warn them prior to the start of the ALCS. Passan also details a complaint filed by the Athletics, who alleged that the Astros were using a clapping-based system from the dugout to relay stolen signs to the players on the field during an August game. To this point, though, there’s been no word on whether Houston was punished in that incident.

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski does not believe the matter had any influence on the outcome of Game 1, which Boston lost 7-2. Red Sox manager (and former Astros bench coach) Alex Cora agreed. The series of complaints against the Astros, Sherman notes, could stem in part from a reputation in the industry that portrays them as a “[New England] Patriots-like” organization — that is, one that “pushes to the limits of the rules — and perhaps beyond.” Passan adds that some clubs are “wary” that Houston may utilize its Edgertronic ballpark cameras, which can record 2,000 frames per second, in sign-stealing schemes.

As Passan notes, however, the Astros aren’t the only organization that has been accused of this manner of sign-stealing efforts. While he doesn’t cite specific teams that have been placed under the microscope, it’s worth remembering that the Red Sox themselves were fined in 2017 for illegal use of an Apple Watch in the dugout in an effort to steal signs from the division-rival Yankees. The  Yankees, too, were also fined for violating a rule pertaining to the use of the dugout phone, and there have been similar reports that other teams believe the Yankees use the YES Network to steal signs from opponents. Back in 2015, the Royals believed the Blue Jays were stealing signs during the 2015 ALCS (to say nothing of the infamous “man in white” conspiracy in Toronto a few years prior).

If anything, the series of reports serves as a reminder and/or an eye-opener that most, if not all teams throughout the league are willing to push the boundaries and utilize technology in an effort to gain a competitive edge. It’s arguable that these tactics are of in the spirit of more “traditional” sign-stealing methods that have been employed for decades (e.g. runner on second base looking in on a catcher’s signs), though the advent of technology obviously presents new methods of gaining that edge — methods that exist in what is at best an ethical gray area.

The utilization of technology in sign-stealing efforts isn’t likely to go away, and it’ll continue to force teams and players into more rigorous efforts to protect signs. Hoynes notes in his column that Cleveland worked so diligently to protect its signs in the weeks leading up to the ALDS that the efforts “bordered on paranoia.” Players, too, recognize the need for increased caution.

“It’s part of the game now,” Red Sox catcher Blake Swihart tells Speier. “…The game is changing. It’s making it tougher. You see a lot of pitchers and catchers get crossed up now — it’s crazy. The game sequences, the signals that you come up with are crazy. You’ve just got to stay in tune with everything.”

Perhaps the greater issue in all of this, Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston writes, is Major League Baseball’s lack of transparency on matters of this regard. As Drellich examines, the lack of clear rules in place and the unnecessarily hushed manner in which the league handles such scenarios only incentivizes teams to continue rule-bending/breaking and to make accusations in the first place.

Didi Gregorius Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Oct. 17: The Yankees announced that Gregorius had the surgery today, which “went as expected.” No further timetable was given in the press release announcing the operation.

Oct. 12: Yankees shortstop Didi Gregorius underwent an MRI yesterday that revealed a ligament tear in his right elbow, manager Aaron Boone revealed to reporters today (all Twitter links via The Athletic’s Marc Carig). He’ll require Tommy John surgery to repair the injury, and an exact timeline on his return is presently uncertain, though rehab for position players is shorter than it is for pitchers. Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News writes that Boone expressed a belief that Gregorius could return in time “to play the bulk of the season with us,” and she further tweets that GM Brian Cashman suggested a “summer” return for Gregorius is possible.

The injury is fairly jarring, as Gregorius wasn’t known to have previous elbow pain. However, Boone explained to reporters that Gregorius felt something in his elbow at Fenway Park when making a relay throw during the American League Division Series. Despite the obvious discomfort that followed, Gregorius gutted out the remainder of the series before undergoing an MRI after the conclusion of the Yankees’ season.

The uncertainty surrounding Gregorius will add a major wrinkle to the Yankees’ offseason. The team has already been linked to free agent Manny Machado dating back to last offseason, and the fact that Gregorius isn’t likely to be ready to open the season will only further fuel that connection. Adding a shortstop won’t be an imperative for the Yankees, who do have substantial depth with Gleyber Torres, Ronald Torreyes and Tyler Wade all on the roster. Nonetheless, they’ll surely at least explore their options — likely including everything from smaller-scale depth additions to an earnest pursuit of Machado, one of the highest-profile free agents in recent history.

The very fact that Boone has suggested Gregorius will return to the Yankees is of some note. He’s up for a relatively hefty arbitration raise after hitting .268/.335/.494 with a career-high 27 home runs for the Yanks this season; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Gregorius to earn $12.4MM in 2019 — a sizable step up from this past season’s $8.25MM salary. Gregorius would be eligible for free agency upon completion of the 2019 season.

If the timeline for his return is lengthy enough, however, the Yankees would likely be forced to consider a non-tender of Gregorius. The final determination on his timetable, of course, won’t be made until after he undergoes surgery, but a salary north of $12MM would be a substantial price to pay for half a season, and Torres’ natural position is shortstop. Utilizing Torres at short in 2019 would open up an even wider slate of possibilities, as the second base market has ample supply that could vastly outstrip the demand at the position.

Zach Davies Replaces Gio Gonzalez On Brewers’ NLCS Roster

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The Brewers announced this morning that they’ve replaced left-hander Gio Gonzalez on their NLCS roster following yesterday’s ankle injury; righty Zach Davis will take his place. The move renders Gonzalez, a pending free agent, ineligible to pitch in the World Series should Milwaukee advance, as players removed from the roster mid-series are automatically ruled ineligible for the following round of postseason play.

Gonzalez suffered a high ankle sprain in the second inning of last night’s game against the Dodgers when fielding an infield single off the bat of Yasiel Puig (video link via MLB.com). His short start forced skipper Craig Counsell to go to his bullpen early, which proved to be all the more significant in a game that would go 12 innings and deplete the bullpen for each team. Adding Davies to the mix, then, will give the Brewers a fresh arm while simultaneously ending Gonzalez’s season.

Davies, 25, missed a good chunk of the 2018 season due to a rotator cuff issue in his right shoulder, but he returned to the Brewers in September and posted a 3.91 ERA and an 18-to-4 K/BB ratio in 23 innings down the stretch. His overall numbers in ’18 aren’t much to look at, but Davies entered the year with a career 3.91 ERA in 388 2/3 innings with 6.6 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 after being acquired from the Orioles in a 2015 trade that sent Gerardo Parra to Baltimore as a deadline rental.

The 33-year-old Gonzalez will reach free agency for the first time in his career this offseason. He’ll head into the open market coming off 171 innings of 4.21 ERA ball in the regular season, during which he averaged 7.8 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and 0.89 HR/9 to go along with a 45.3 percent ground-ball rate. It’s the second pedestrian ERA for Gonzalez in the past three seasons, though his 2017 season was terrific in that regard (2.96), and his 2016 ERA (4.57) was heavily skewed by an uncharacteristic dip in strand rate.

Gonzalez has a solid track record over the years and was a fixture in the Nationals’ rotation for seven years after coming over in a trade from the Athletics. He’s lost about a mile off his average fastball since 2016 and turned in the worst full-season walk rate of his career in 2018 — neither of which figure to do his free-agent stock any favors. But Gonzalez has generally been a durable and dependable rotation piece since 2010, averaging 31.4 starts per season along the way. He’s only fallen shy of 30 starts once in that time (27 starts in 2014) and has posted solid run-prevention numbers with a knack for missing bats and limiting home runs.

Gonzalez’s swinging-strike and chase rates both improved substantially with the Brewers, albeit in a small sample of 25 1/3 innings, which could give interested parties some optimism in free agency this winter. At worst, the veteran southpaw should be viewed as a dependable source of 30+ starts, and if a team feels his 2018 control issues can be corrected (and/or that his improvement with the Brewers is sustainable), he could be seen as a step above that in terms of value.

Seunghwan Oh Mulling Return To Korea Baseball Organization

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Seunghwan Oh’s option for the 2019 season already vested when he appeared in his 70th game of the season, but the Rockies right-hander told reporters in his native South Korea on Wednesday that he is considering a return to the Korea Baseball Organization (link via Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency).

“I am a bit exhausted after spending five seasons in Japan and the United States,” said Oh, who pitched for Japan’s Hanshin Tigers in 2014-15, the St. Louis Cardinals in 2016-17 and the Blue Jays and Rockies in 2018. “I feel like I want to return to the KBO while I still have the energy to help the team and pitch in front of home fans. I can’t make this decision alone. I’ll have to speak with my agency about the next season.”

It’s a surprising development for a player who is already under contract at a $2.5MM rate that is modest in the United States but would be a substantial salary in the KBO. Then again, the 36-year-old Oh was the KBO’s premier reliever for nine seasons (2005-13) and has had plenty of success in five years pitching between NPB and MLB, so his career earnings are already substantial. Money likely isn’t the primary motivating factor for him at this point. To that end, Oh acknowledged: “It’s not easy living in a foreign country. … Everything away from the stadium is an extension of competition.”

It’s not clear exactly how a move back to the KBO would come together. Yoo notes that Oh’s former club, the Samsung Lions, still controls his rights in the Korean league, though he quotes a Lions official indicating that he was not aware of Oh’s desire to return until learning of it through the media. That executive, though, said the Lions could “explore different possibilities” with Oh should he pursue a return to South Korea. Oh would also be facing a 72-game suspension after the Korean courts fined him for gambling in a foreign casino (a violation of South Korea’s strict gambling laws), which will likely factor into his decision process.

If Oh does ultimately head back to the KBO, it’d be an unexpected blow for a Rockies club that surrendered a pair of prospects — Forrest Wall and Chad Spanberger — when acquiring his services from the Blue Jays back in a late July trade. Presumably, the Rockies and Oh would come to an agreement that would void the remainder of his contract (as was the case with the Twins and ByungHo Park when he, too, decided to return to Korea), though perhaps some additional financial determinations (e.g. compensation from the Lions) would need to be discussed.

Oh was outstanding both in Toronto and Denver this season, pitching to a combined 2.63 ERA with 10.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 in 68 1/3 innings of work. That strong bounceback season netted him $500K worth of incentives on top of his $1.75MM base salary and made his 2019 option look to be a considerable bargain for a Rockies bullpen that saw high-priced offseason acquisitions Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee both flounder in the first season of matching three-year, $27MM pacts. Beyond that, Colorado is also slated to lose standout late-inning reliever Adam Ottavino to free agency, making the potential loss of Oh an even greater problem.

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