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Previewing The 2021-22 Free Agent Class: Third Basemen

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We’ve already previewed a few different positions in this year’s free-agent market, beginning with catcher and first base. Third base is up next, and I’ll note in advance that there are of course quite a few notable shortstops who could conceivably be viewed as fits at the hot corner for teams in need. Any from the Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Marcus Semien and Trevor Story ranks could surely be viewed as a candidate to slide over to third base — Semien moved from shortstop to second base in free agency last winter, after all — but they’ll all be highlighted in more depth in our look at the shortstop market.

Here’s a look at the offseason collection of third base options…

Everyday Options

Kris Bryant (30 years old next season): The clear top of this year’s class, Bryant figures to command one of the largest contracts of any free agent this winter. The former No. 2 overall draft pick, Rookie of the Year, and MVP has put a dismal 2020 showing in the rear-view mirror, bouncing back with a strong .268/.356/.496 batting line in 556 plate appearances between the Cubs and the Giants. He’s connected on 25 home runs and 32 doubles while significantly improving upon last year’s poor strikeout and walk rates.

Bryant has been a very, very good hitter — about 30 percent better than league average, per wRC+ — in three of the past four seasons. He’s a true middle-of-the-order hitter, but he’s never fully matched his brilliant 2016-17 production, when he was nearly 50 percent better than the average hitter. Agent Scott Boras will surely push Bryant as an option at either infield corner and in any of the three outfield spots, championing his client’s defensive versatility and the value that brings to a suitor. There’s plenty of truth to that, honestly, but it should also be noted that Bryant isn’t exactly a plus defender at all of those positions, either. Bryant won’t be eligible for a qualifying offer after being traded midseason.

Eduardo Escobar (33): A recent slump has tanked Escobar’s overall batting line a bit, but he’s a switch-hitter with above-average offense, plenty of pop in his bat and decent defensive marks at both third base and second base over the past few seasons. Escobar is two long balls shy of his second 30-homer season in the past three years. The 2020 season was an immense struggle for him, but Escobar has been a quality bat in the past three full-length seasons. He’s walking at a career-best 8.3 percent clip in 2021, including a 10.7 percent mark since being traded from Arizona to Milwaukee. Escobar has played plenty of shortstop in his career but has just two innings there since 2018. He’ll most likely be viewed as a pure third baseman/second baseman.

Utility Infielders with Experience at Third

  • Ehire Adrianza (32): Adrianza’s .246/.327/.392 line through 197 plate appearances isn’t too far from his career mark. He’s a glove-first, switch-hitting infielder with decent defensive marks around the diamond.
  • Asdrubal Cabrera (36): Cabrera has gone hitless since being picked up by the Reds but was only a bit worse than the league average prior to that point. He’s a veteran bench bat who can handle first base and second base as well.
  • Leury Garcia (31): Garcia has had a nice few seasons on the South Side of Chicago. He’s a switch-hitting utilityman who can cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. Garcia doesn’t hit for power or draw many walks, but he makes a fair amount of contact and has been right around league average offensively over the past couple seasons.
  • Marwin Gonzalez (33): Gonzalez hit just .201/.281/.285 before the Red Sox cut him loose. He’s clubbed three homers in 23 plate appearances since re-signing in Houston, but he’s still hitting just .182 overall there. Gonzalez posted a career year in 2017, and his bat has steadily declined since.
  • Josh Harrison (34): It’s certainly feasible that Harrison has hit his way into an everyday job somewhere next season after batting .285/.348/.414 in his past 624 plate appearances. Contending clubs might view him as more of a versatile super-utility player, but the 34-year-old has put an ugly 2019 season behind him.
  • Brock Holt (34): Holt hasn’t hit much since a nice 2018-19 run with the Red Sox, but he can play just about anywhere on the diamond. He’s played third base near-exclusively with the Rangers in 2021 (and graded well there), but Holt has experience at the three other infield positions and in all three outfield spots.
  • Brad Miller (32): Miller walks a lot, strikes out a lot and hits for power. He’s a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type who can play all over the field but doesn’t have great defensive ratings anywhere. The Phils have used him mostly at first base, but he’s also played third, second and corner outfield in 2021 while hitting .230/.320/.463 with 19 big flies.
  • Chris Owings (30): Owings posted a huge .326/.420/.628 line this year, but it came in just 50 plate appearances and is miles from his tepid career slash line of .243/.288/.372. Owings can play pretty much anywhere but catcher and has strong defensive marks at second base. His .284 OBP over his past 2000 MLB plate appearances, however, hinders his value.
  • Joe Panik (31): An elite defender at second base for much of his career, Panik played 226 innings at third this season and posted a brutal -9 Defensive Runs Saved mark. He draws his walks and is tough to strike out, but he’s also hitting just .236/.305/.319 since 2018.
  • Eric Sogard (36): Sogard popped a career-high 13 homers in the juiced-ball 2019 season but followed it up with a .232/.282/.299 slash in 2020-21. He’s a good defender at second without much offensive upside.
  • Jonathan Villar (31): Like Harrison, Villar has hit well enough this season that he could easily land an everyday role next year. Some clubs may view him as more of a utility player, but with a .254/.327/.429 batting line, 18 homers and 13 steals under his belt, Villar will get a big league deal whether he’s locked in at one position or bouncing around as needed.

Corner-Only/Platoon Bats

  • Maikel Franco (29): Franco is in minor league deal territory after being released by the Orioles on the heels of a .210/.253/.355 performance (403 plate appearances). The former top prospect had a decent showing with the 2020 Royals but has been well below-average dating back to 2016.
  • Todd Frazier (36): Frazier went just 3-for-35 before being released by the Pirates and joining the U.S. Olympic team. He smacked 21 home runs as recently as 2019 with the Mets and had a huge Spring Training in 2021, but his output during the 2020-21 seasons was well below his career standards.
  • Jake Lamb (31): A productive everyday third baseman with the D-Backs at his 2016-17 peak, Lamb hasn’t been the same since undergoing shoulder surgery in 2018. He’s bounced around between a few teams in journeyman fashion, splitting this season with the White Sox and Blue Jays before being designated for assignment by Toronto yesterday. The left-handed hitter owns a .194/.306/.368 line in 170 plate appearances between the two clubs this season.
  • Pablo Sandoval (35): The Panda’s resurgence with the 2019 Giants was a fun story, but he’s batted just .197/.294/.299 in 180 plate appearances between the Giants and Braves since that time. The Indians acquired him as a financial counterbalance in the deadline trade that sent Eddie Rosario to Atlanta, but Cleveland released Sandoval that same day.
  • Travis Shaw (32): Shaw’s Milwaukee reunion didn’t work, as he posted just a .191/.279/.337 line there before being cut loose. His return to the Red Sox, however, has been excellent: .250/.325/.583 through 41 plate appearances. It’s a small sample but still a much-needed sign of life in his bat.
  • Yoshi Tsutsugo (30): Tsutsugo’s been limited to first base and the corner outfield this season, but he started eleven games at the hot corner with Tampa Bay last season. The left-handed hitter underwhelmed with the Rays after a ten-year NPB career as one of Japan’s most fearsome power hitters. Cut loose by both Tampa Bay and the Dodgers, Tsutsugo latched on with the Pirates a month ago. He’s doing his best to put his past couple stints behind him, mashing at a .311/.394/.678 clip with eight homers in 104 plate appearances in Pittsburgh. It’s a very small sample of big league productivity, but combined with Tsutsugo’s strong NPB track record, makes him an interesting low-cost flier.

Players with 2022 Options

Kyle Seager, Mariners, $20MM club option ($3MM buyout): The Mariners’ call on Seager will be one of the more interesting option decisions a team has to make this offseason. He’s hitting a personal-worst .215 with the second-lowest OBP of his career (.292). But Seager has popped 35 home runs, bringing his overall batting line to slightly above the league average. He’s still a good defender at the hot corner and a career-long Mariner who’s been a respected member of the franchise for more than a decade. $17MM isn’t an insignificant sum, but Seattle will enter the offseason with plenty of payroll flexibility. This one feels it could go in either direction, and Seager would jump up alongside Escobar at the top of the non-Bryant market at the position if he’s bought out.

Jose Ramirez, Indians, $11MM club option ($2MM buyout): There won’t be many easier decisions for a team this winter than there is for the Cleveland front office on Ramirez’s fairly cheap option. It’s an absolute bargain for one of the best players in the sport.

Wilmer Flores, Giants, $3.5MM club option ($250K buyout): Flores has roughly the equivalent of one full season’s worth of playing time since signing with San Francisco over the 2019-20 offseason. He’s hitting .261/.323/.472 in that time, showing power and quality bat-to-ball skills. Flores can play multiple positions and has a long history of mashing left-handed pitching. For a high-payroll club, the $3.5MM option looks like an easy yes.

Matt Carpenter, Cardinals, $18.5MM club option ($2MM buyout): Carpenter’s option is a lock to be bought out. A bit of a late-bloomer, Carpenter found his stride in his late-20’s and kicked off a seven-year run from 2012-18 as one of the game’s better offensive players. His work at the plate has fallen substantially since then, particularly over the past two seasons. With a .180/.316/.299 line since the start of 2020, Carpenter might be looking at minor league offers this winter. The 35-year-old is planning on giving it another go though.

Nolan Arenado, Cardinals, opt-out clause (five years, $164MM remaining): Arenado has said on multiple occasions that he plans to forgo his opt-out clause and remain with the Cardinals long-term. Were he to unexpectedly change course, he’d be among the top names on the entire free-agent market, but that seems unlikely.

Carlos Gomez Officially Announces Retirement

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Former major league outfielder Carlos Gómez officially announced his retirement this afternoon in a ceremony at Milwaukee’s American Family Field (video via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). The announcement finalizes the end of a 13-year major league career.

Of course, there hasn’t been much doubt that Gómez’s playing days had already concluded. The 35-year-old last played in the majors in 2019, and he hasn’t played professionally since wrapping up a stint with the Aguilas Cibaenas in the Dominican Winter League between 2019-20. Reports out of the Dominican Republic in January 2020 indicated Gómez’s playing days were likely coming to an end, but he hadn’t publicly finalized that decision until today.

Gómez ceremoniously hung up his spikes as a Brewer, with whom he had the best run of his career. Acquired from the Twins over the 2009-10 offseason, the electric center fielder spent the next four and a half seasons with the Brew Crew. At his peak, Gómez was one of the sport’s top power-speed threats. Between 2013 and 2014, the right-handed hitter posted a .284/.347/.491 line with 47 home runs. He chipped in 74 stolen bases over those two seasons while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense.

Gómez earned down-ballot MVP support in both of those campaigns, and few players could match his well-rounded skillset. Over that two-year stretch, Gómez ranked seventh among all position players in FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement, trailing only Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, teammate Jonathan Lucroy, Buster Posey, Miguel Cabrera and Josh Donaldson.

Milwaukee traded Gómez to the Astros at the 2015 deadline for then-prospects Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana, Josh Hader and Adrian Houser. It proved an opportune time for the Brewers to add an influx of young talent still helping the team immensely today, as Gómez’s productivity was never quite the same from that point forward. As he entered his 30’s, Gómez bounced around the league with a few clubs. He ended his playing days with the Mets, ironically the team that initially signed him as a 16-year-old back in 2002.

Gómez appeared in the majors with six different clubs over the course of his career, although he’ll be best known for his peak in Milwaukee. He appeared in 1461 MLB games and hit .252/.313/.411 with 145 home runs, 236 doubles and 41 triples. Gómez stole 268 bases, scored 675 runs and drove in 546. He appeared in two All-Star Games and won a Gold Glove during his aforementioned star-level peak. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued his career at around 25 WAR. MLBTR congratulates Gómez on a very fine career and wishes him all the best in his future endeavors.

Rockies Activate Peter Lambert From Injured List

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The Rockies announced they’ve reinstated Peter Lambert from the 60-day injured list. He’ll start this evening’s game against the Giants. To create space on the 40-man roster, Colorado transferred corner outfielder/first baseman Connor Joe from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list. Rookie outfielder Ryan Vilade was optioned to Triple-A Albuquerque to open an active roster spot.

Lambert is back for the first time in two years. A well-regarded pitching prospect during his time in the minors, the right-hander reached the big leagues shortly after his 22nd birthday in 2019. His first crack at the majors didn’t go according to plan, as he was tagged for a 7.25 ERA over nineteen outings, but the Rox surely believed in Lambert’s ability to eventually settle in as a solid starter.

Unfortunately, Lambert went down with a forearm strain in Spring Training last year. A few months later, he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery. That cost him all of 2020 and almost all of this season, but he’ll get back on a big league mound for an appearance or two to end the year. Manager Bud Black told reporters (including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post) that Lambert could throw up to 60 pitches tonight.

The Rockies obviously aren’t playing more than a potential spoiler role for the stretch run. Nevertheless, it’s a welcome development for Lambert and the team that his lengthy rehab process will culminate in some game action, however brief. Lambert’s return will allow him to enter the upcoming offseason on a more normal footing, while the front office can get a glimpse of his current form in determining how much they can count on him as an option for next year’s season-opening pitching staff.

Joe missed all of last season battling testicular cancer. Fortunately, he was able to make it back to the diamond on a minor league deal and earned his way to the majors in early May. The right-handed hitting Joe had a quietly productive season in a limited role in Colorado. Over 211 plate appearances, he hit .285/.379/.469 with eight home runs.

A right hamstring strain ends Joe’s comeback season a bit early. Still, it seems likely the 29-year-old showed enough offensive punch to hang onto a spot on Colorado’s 40-man roster over the offseason.

Giants Sign Ka’ai Tom To Minor League Deal

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The Giants have signed outfielder Ka’ai Tom to a minor league contract, tweets Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group. He’s been assigned to Triple-A Sacramento.

Ironically enough, that comes just days after the Giants added first baseman/corner outfielder John Nogowski on a two-year minors pact. Tom and Nogowski had been released simultaneously by the Pirates earlier this week, less than a month after both players were waived off Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster at the same time.

It’s not clear whether Tom’s minor league pact covers the 2022 season as Nogowski’s deal does, although it seems likely that’s the case. Tom won’t be eligible for San Francisco’s playoff roster as a player added to the organization after August 31, and there wouldn’t be much benefit to bringing him in for the regular season’s final week only to see him depart via minor league free agency this winter.

Tom will look to play his way back into the majors in the Bay Area, where his big league time briefly began this spring. The A’s selected Tom out of the Indians’ organization in last fall’s Rule 5 draft, and he broke camp with Oakland. The A’s waived Tom after just nine games, though, and Pittsburgh gave him a longer look after adding him on waivers.

Between the two clubs, the 27-year-old tallied his first 133 MLB plate appearances. He hit just .139/.278/.231 with a pair of home runs, but Tom owns a much better minor league track record. The left-handed hitter has a .272/.353/.504 line in a brief look at Triple-A, and he’s a .261/.353/.445 hitter over a rather lengthy run in Double-A. Tom’s primarily a corner outfielder, but he has the ability to cover center field if needed and has a long track of drawing walks and getting on base in the minors. He’ll offer a no-risk depth add to the San Francisco system.

Cardinals Activate Dakota Hudson, Jack Flaherty From IL

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5:03 pm: Flaherty has indeed been activated to start this evening’s game against the Cubs. Lefty Brandon Waddell was optioned to Triple-A Memphis to open active roster space.

10:24 am: The Cardinals announced Friday that right-hander Dakota Hudson has been activated from the 60-day injured list and added to the active roster as the 29th man for today’s doubleheader. The Cards already had an open 40-man spot after releasing Daniel Ponce de Leon this week. Opening Day starter Jack Flaherty is still expected to be activated from the 10-day injured list in a separate move today, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. He’s the scheduled starter for Game 2 of the twin bill.

It’s an unusually quick turnaround for Hudson, who underwent Tommy John surgery less than one year ago but has already completed a minor league rehab assignment that saw him start five games across three different levels. Hudson built up to five innings in each of his two most recent starts, tossing 57 and 68 pitches, respectively, as he continued building up arm strength. He held opponents to a 0.96 ERA through 18 2/3 frames of rehab work, albeit with a less-than-stellar 10-to-8 K/BB ratio.

Of course, some rust is to b expected given the nature of his injury and the subsequent layoff. That Hudson is able to contribute this season at all is fairly remarkable in and of itself, and his return could serve as a notable boon for a surging Cardinals club.

The 27-year-old righty has been quite effective when healthy, pitching to a 3.17 ERA through his first 241 Major League innings. Because of sub-par 20.5 percent and 9.9 percent strikeout and walk rates, fielding-independent metrics aren’t quite so bullish (4.74 FIP, 4.55 xFIP). There’s no doubting that Hudson, an extreme ground-ball pitcher (57.3 percent), has benefited from a perennially excellent Cardinals infield defense. That said, the St. Louis infield as as good as ever now that Nolan Arenado has been installed at the hot corner, and his heavy sinker ought to serve the Cards well whether Hudson is used as a starter, an opener or in some type of relief role.

A return from Hudson was never viewed as a given, but manager Mike Shildt began to plant the seeds that it was at least possible several months back. Hudson will now have the opportunity to help a scorching-hot Cardinals club that has won a dozen consecutive games — all but icing a Wild Card berth in the National League along the way. Hudson’s usage and effectiveness down the stretch could be instructive as to how he’d be deployed in a potential playoff series, should the Cards advance beyond the Wild Card round of play.

MLB Suspends Blue Jays’ Ryan Borucki

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SEPTEMBER 24: Borucki’s suspension was reduced to two games on appeal. He’ll miss Toronto’s next two games in Minnesota.

SEPTEMBER 23: Major League Baseball has suspended Blue Jays reliever Ryan Borucki for three games “for intentionally hitting Kevin Kiermaier of the Tampa Bay Rays with a pitch during the bottom of the eighth inning of Wednesday’s game at Tropicana Field.” Borucki has also received an undisclosed fine. He is appealing the suspension, so he’ll remain on the active roster until that appeal is heard.

As is typical, Toronto manager Charlie Montoyo has been suspended one game and fined an undisclosed amount for Borucki’s actions. Montoyo will serve his ban tonight, missing this evening’s game against the Twins.

With the Rays leading last night’s game 7-1, Borucki hit Kiermaier in the back with a first-pitch fastball. Benches cleared, and Borucki was ejected by third base umpire Joe West after the fracas was sorted out. After the game, Borucki denied that he hit Kiermaier intentionally, claiming that the ball slipped out of his hand (via ESPN).

The incident came just two days after Kiermaier was at the center of controversy between the two clubs. During Monday’s game, Kiermaier was thrown out at home plate attempting to score on a Jake Lamb throwing error. The play ended the inning and the Blue Jays departed the field. While sitting next to home plate, Kiermaier picked up a gameplan card that had been dropped by Toronto catcher Alejandro Kirk (video via Arash Madani of Sportsnet). Kiermaier took the card back to the Tampa Bay dugout.

It’s not clear whether Kiermaier was aware of what was on the card at the time he picked it up. After the game, the Rays center fielder told reporters he initially believed it to be his own gameplan card, which he keeps in his pocket during games to aid his positioning on defense. Kiermaier refused to return the card to the Blue Jays once he realized its contents, upsetting some in the Toronto organization. That bad blood seemingly carried over into Wednesday’s game.

The Rays and Jays are not scheduled to play one another again this season, but it’s possible they’ll play meet in the playoffs. Tampa Bay enters play tonight with a two and a half game advantage over the Astros for the top seed in the American League. If they hold onto that position, they’ll face the winner of the AL Wild Card game in their Division Series. Toronto trails the Yankees by half a game in the race for the final AL Wild Card spot.

Austin Nola To Undergo Thumb Surgery

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Padres catcher Austin Nola’s season is over, manager Jayce Tingler announced to reporters (Twitter link via Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune). He’d been attempting to play through a strained ligament in his left thumb, but he’ll now undergo surgery to address the issue. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training 2022.

Nola’ third IL stint of the season will bring his year to a premature end. San Diego acquired Nola at last summer’s trade deadline while he was amidst a breakout campaign with the Mariners. His pace fell off a little bit down the stretch, but he still entered 2021 as one of the better catchers in baseball.

When healthy, Nola continued to produce on both sides of the ball. He hit .272/.340/.376 with one of the league’s lowest strikeout rates (9.8%). That’s exactly league average offense by measure of wRC+, a significant cut above the cumulative .228/.305/.392 line managed by catchers leaguewide. And Nola rated as a slightly above-average pitch framer, per Statcast, a continuation of his career trend in that regard.

Unfortunately, a series of health woes — fractured left middle finger, left knee sprain and today’s thumb strain — limited the 31-year-old to just 194 plate appearances in 56 games this season. Getting a full season from Nola will be key for a San Diego team that’ll look to contend in 2022. A miserable second half will almost certainly keep the Friars from the postseason this year, but they’ll bring back an extremely talented core in hopes of sticking near the top of a competitive NL West. A late bloomer who didn’t make his MLB debut until his age-29 season, Nola won’t be eligible for arbitration until the end of next year and isn’t on track to reach free agency until the 2025-26 offseason.

Orioles’ Keegan Akin To Undergo Abdominal Surgery

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The Orioles announced today that left-hander Keegan Akin has been placed on the 10-day injured list. Baltimore selected the contract of catcher Nick Ciuffo and recalled right-hander Joey Krehbiel from Triple-A Norfolk. Akin will undergo abdominal surgery in the near future, tweets MLB.com’s Joe Trezza. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training 2022.

A former second-round draft pick, Akin has been regarded as one of the better young pitchers in the Orioles’ system over the past few years. He’s posted strong strikeout rates throughout his minor league tenure to earn his first big league look last season.

Akin has yet to carry that lower-level success over against MLB hitters. He’s tossed 120 2/3 big league frames over the past couple years, managing just a 6.19 ERA with slightly worse than average strikeout and walk rates (21.5% and 9.2%, respectively). Excepting John Means, the Orioles have gotten very little from their starting pitching options this season. That should give Akin another opportunity to stake a claim to a permanent rotation spot in 2022, assuming he’s back at full strength next spring as expected.

Ciuffo returns to the big leagues for the first time in two years. He’s a former first-round pick and highly-regarded prospect himself, but the 26-year-old wound up tallying just 50 MLB plate appearances with the Rays, his original organization. Ciuffo spent last season with the Rangers on a minor league deal but never landed a big league opportunity and reentered minor league free agency last winter.

The O’s added Ciuffo on another minors deal in December. He was assigned to Triple-A Norfolk but only picked up 58 plate appearances there after losing most of the season to injury. The left-handed hitter will get an opportunity to back up Pedro Severino and Austin Wynns for the season’s final few games. He’d be controllable well beyond this season if the O’s front office decides to carry him on the 40-man roster through the upcoming offseason.

Rays’ Ryan Thompson To Undergo Thoracic Outlet Surgery

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Rays reliever Ryan Thompson will undergo surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). That’ll officially end his 2021 season, although the team expects he’ll be ready for Opening Day 2022.

Thompson hasn’t made a big league appearance since June 27, when he landed on the injured list with what the team initially termed shoulder inflammation. He embarked upon a minor league rehab assignment in mid-August but apparently continued to deal with issues that’ll require surgical repair. He’s already on the 60-day injured list, so today’s development won’t affect the Rays’ roster situation.

Thoracic outlet syndrome has become increasingly commonplace in recent years, although the track record of pitchers recovering from the procedure remains mixed. A few hurlers (most prominently Matt Harvey and Thompson’s teammate Chris Archer) continued to deal with injuries and/or ineffectiveness upon returning from TOS surgery. That’s not a universal fate, though. Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly, for instance, underwent thoracic outlet surgery last September but returned to open this season in the Arizona rotation. Aside from a battle with COVID-19, Kelly has remained healthy all season and has settled back in at his general level of 2019-20 performance.

Thompson’s not a household name to many fans around the league, but he’s been part of an under-the-radar yet highly productive Rays’ relief corps. The sidearming righty made his big league debut last season and quickly emerged as one of Tampa Bay’s higher-leverage bullpen options. He owns a 3.28 ERA over 60 1/3 MLB innings with average or better strikeout (24.2%), walk (6.9%) and ground-ball (53.6%) numbers.

Matthew Boyd To Undergo Flexor Tendon Surgery

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Tigers southpaw Matthew Boyd will undergo surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his left forearm, manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Jason Beck of MLB.com). The team didn’t provide any specific timetable for his recovery, but they’re “hopeful” he’ll be able to pitch at some point in 2022.

It’s a disappointing but not wholly unexpected development. Boyd missed two and a half months earlier this season because of triceps discomfort, returning in late August. He made just two starts before landing back on the shelf due to recurring elbow soreness, and the team sent him to visit a specialist a couple weeks ago.

The small silver lining is that the repair which Boyd will undergo is a less extensive procedure than a full Tommy John surgery. That offers some hope he’ll make it back onto a mound next year, but he’s almost certainly going to miss a good portion of the upcoming season.

It’s possible the surgery brings a premature end to Boyd’s six-plus year tenure in Detroit. The 30-year-old is scheduled to go through the arbitration process for a third and final time this offseason. Were the Tigers to tender him a contract, he’d be due a raise on this season’s $6.5MM salary before reaching free agency at the end of the 2022 campaign. Now that he’s seemingly in line to miss much of next year, Boyd’s likely to be let go a year early.

Tigers GM Al Avila told reporters (including Evan Woodbery of MLive) the club isn’t ruling out the possibility of Boyd pitching there moving forward. That’d most likely come in the form of a lower cost, incentive-laden free agent deal after a non-tender. But a non-tender would give Boyd the opportunity to explore inquiries from other teams.

If this does wind up marking the end of Boyd’s time with the Tigers, it’d conclude a generally up-and-down tenure. Acquired from the Blue Jays at the 2015 trade deadline as part of the David Price deal, Boyd almost immediately stepped into the Tigers’ rotation. He’s remained a member of the starting staff ever since, settling in as a reliable back-end innings eater for the first few years.

That changed in 2019, when Boyd leaned more heavily on his four-seam fastball at the expense of his sinker and saw a huge uptick in whiffs. Through the end of July that year, he owned a 3.94 ERA with an elite 32.5% strikeout rate across 132 1/3 innings. That dramatically improved performance — coupled with the Tigers’ continued rebuild — made Boyd one of the hottest names on the summer trade market.

Ultimately, Detroit made the decision to hold onto Boyd past the deadline. That proved to be a misstep in retrospect. He struggled down the stretch that season before a very poor showing in last year’s shortened campaign.

Detroit continued to stick by Boyd, though, and he rewarded their faith with a bounceback showing in 2021. The huge strikeout stuff Boyd showed in that 2019 season has fallen all the way back to his early-career levels, but Boyd tamped down on his prior home run troubles early this season en route to a career-low 3.89 ERA in fifteen starts.

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