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AL West Notes: Fast, Correa, McCullers, Sipp, Simmons, Rangers

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Astros director of research and development Mike Fast has left the organization, as MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart was among those to cover (via Twitter). The former Baseball Prospectus scribe joined the organization well in advance of its rise to prominence, forming a key part of the front office team assembled by GM Jeff Luhnow. Fast tells Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (subscription link) that he’s hoping “to latch on with another team” in some capacity, though he did not otherwise offer any clues as to the reason for his departure or his expectations in pursuing a new opportunity.

It’ll be interesting to see both where Fast lands and how he’s replaced. Here’s more from Houston and some division rivals …

  • The postseason-bound Astros are getting ready for the ALDS, which means a focus on health. As Kaplan reports (Twitter links), star shortstop Carlos Correa will get some time off to rest his back before ramping back up next week. Meanwhile, Lance McCullers Jr. will throw from the pen upon returning to action early next week. Ensuring that Correa is at full strength is obviously of critical importance to the organization’s hopes of repeating as World Series champs. Though he hasn’t hit to his typical standards this year, Correa undeniably possesses the talent to be a force in October. Likewise, getting back McCullers, who has been sidelined with a forearm strain, would also be notable. Though it may not be likely that he’ll shoulder anything approaching a starter’s workload in the playoffs, McCullers would represent another high-quality arm on a staff that’s already loaded with them.
  • Astros southpaw Tony Sipp is flipping the script in 2018, as Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle writes. The veteran reliever discusses his tough moments over the last two seasons with candor. It came as a wake-up call, he suggests, when he found himself “having to answer questions about making a team when your contract is guaranteed,” as occurred this spring. As it turns out, the 35-yer-old has bounced back from a pair of homer-plagued seasons, posting a 2.06 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 over 35 frames in 2018. He’ll return to the open market this winter, but first will play an important role in the ’Stros postseason pitching mix.
  • The Angels have faced their share of disappointments this year, but have also watched as shortstop Andrelton Simmons has cemented himself as a premium all-around performer alongside the peerless Mike Trout. Indeed, the 29-year-old Simmons has again topped 5 fWAR with a blend of solid, contact-oriented hitting and otherworldly defense. That doesn’t mean that he doesn’t have designs on improvement, however. As Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register explores, the game’s premier defender is hoping some added strength will lead to a power boost going forward.
  • While the Rangers have only just begun looking for a new skipper, after firing Jeff Banister today, that doesn’t mean it’s too soon to begin thinking of the possibilities. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News runs through some of the names he believes could be considered for the job, including interim skipper Don Wakamatsu. There are plenty of notable names contemplated in the post, so Texas fans will want to give it a full read and reach their own conclusions on the right path for the organization to take.

Cardinals Notes: Ozuna, Gallegos, Norris, Martinez, Hicks

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Marcell Ozuna’s first season with the Cardinals has had its ups and downs, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch chronicled today, with a particular focus on the shoulder injury that has hampered Ozuna since last offseason. The Cardinals were undeterred by Ozuna’s shoulder issues when they traded for him, but increasingly recognized the effects the injury was having on his power output as he continued to turn in sluggish results. Ozuna finally relented to treatment in the form of a cortisone shot and a quick trip to the 10-day DL in late August. Since his return, Ozuna has performed much more in line with the team’s original expectations, hitting .324 with a .997 OPS in September. He’ll undergo further testing and strength training for the shoulder in the offseason, but presently, Ozuna is focused on the Cardinals hunt for the wild card and a potential one game playoff – likely against a division rival in Milwaukee or Chicago.
Here’s more recent news from the Redbirds…
  • The Cards recalled Giovanny Gallegos from Triple A today, the club announced and Joe Trezza of MLB.com tweeted. The 27-year-old reliever – whom you’ll recall was one of the arms acquired from the Yankees in the late-summer swap for Luke Voit – will be available out of the St. Louis bullpen. With the playoff race nearing its apex, Gallegos isn’t likely to see a lot of usage, but an extra arm never hurts this time of year.
  • Trezza also tweeted that Cards manager Mike Shildt expects Bud Norris (blister) to be available out out of the pen tonight. Norris was pulled in the 7th inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers last Sunday when the blister surfaced. Though the deposed closer has struggled at times this year, he figures to be an important piece of the puzzle in the final week. With the final six games against the division-rival Brewers and Cubs, there figure to be more than enough high-leverage, heart-pounding situations to go around – even if he’s not closing games.
  • In a separate piece from Goold, Cardinals president of baseball ops John Mozeliak confirms some items of interest about the club’s future bullpen. Namely, current closer Carlos Martinez will indeed return to the starting rotation next season. A tight rehab timeline, coupled with the team’s needs, prompted Martinez’s move to the pen late this year. While it has worked out quite well thus far, however, it seems more happy accident than long-term strategy.
  • Speaking of the late-inning mix, flame-throwing rookie Jordan Hicks will have no restrictions the rest of the way because of the built-in days off. Though he’s still roughly 25 innings shy of his total innings tally from last season, when he was pitching as a starter in the minors, Hicks has still been relied upon rather heavily in 2018. Pitching every couple of days is a different animal, as is the pressure the 22-year-old faces as a late-innings reliever in a pennant race. Regardless, Shildt will have unfettered access to his young fireballer as the Cardinals try to lock down a spot in the playoffs.
  • As Goold also covers, the Cardinals have no intention of altering their starting rotation for the final week of the season. It’ll be Austin Gomber, Jack Flaherty, and John Gant facing off against Milwaukee starting Monday.

Silver Linings: National League East

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In our Silver Linings series, we’re checking in on the most promising developments for non-contending teams during an otherwise disappointing 2018 season. Today, we’ll hop over to the National League East.

[Previous “Silver Linings” Posts: AL Central, NL Central]

While the Phillies are all but eliminated and sit just 1.5 games ahead of the Nats, they hung in the race longer and the 2018 season represented a big step forward nevertheless. Accordingly, we won’t go looking for silver linings in Philadelphia. But we will look at the three worst-performing clubs in the division, including one organization that was rebuilding from the start along with two of the most disappointing teams in baseball this year.

Nationals: Young Outfielders

With Bryce Harper mired in a curious slump for much of the season’s first half, and top-of-the-order dynamo Adam Eaton again on the shelf with ankle issues, the Nationals – a paragon of ignominy and disappointment over the past few seasons – turned for an offensive boost to an unlikely source: 19-year-old Juan Soto, who entered the season with just 301 professional plate appearances, none of which had come above the Low-A level.  Soto responded in a way few rookies – and virtually zero teenagers – have, slashing .297/.410/.518 after his May 15th call-up and carrying the club offensively through much of the summer.  Soto’s seemingly slump-proof output has been buttressed by an insanely high 16.1% BB rate and a preternatural ability, for a left-handed hitter, to handle same-side arms: his 145 wRC+ ranks third among all major league hitters with at least 100 PA in left-on-left matchups.  With Harper set to hit free agency after this season and sign perhaps the richest deal in major league history, Washington has insured itself beyond its wildest hopes: a true star, shining vibrantly before their eyes (for years to come, at a bargain rate of pay).

Though it was somewhat of a lost season for Washington’s most heralded prospect entering the 2018 campaign, 21-year-old Victor Robles, a consensus top-5 prospect among major outlets, offers another ray of hope for a franchise in desperate need of a spark as it transitions toward a future without many of its past stars.  Robles, who missed a good chunk of the season with a hyperextended elbow, slashed just .278/.356/.386 in limited action for Triple-A Syracuse, though he did steal 14 bases in just 40 games for the Chiefs.  The product of the Dominican Republic garners effusive praise for his work on defense, with MLB.com lauding his ’exceptional range and instincts’ and ’off-the-charts athleticism.’  Despite the tepid output at the plate in ’18, Robles still projects as a plus hitter with a chance for above-average power.

With those two cornerstones in place, a healthy Adam Eaton, baserunning whiz Trea Turner – whose 40 steals in 49 attempts have catapulted him to 4.2 fWAR, good for 2nd among all National League shortstops – and Anthony Rendon, perhaps the league’s most unheralded star, the revamped Nationals offense appears to yet again be a strength as the team prepares for the ’19 campaign.

Mets: Rotation Core

The Mets, who began the season in ecstasy and will end it in despair, had few bright spots on the offensive side of the ball this year.  Young lynchpins Amed Rosario and Michael Conforto have had, at best, uneven seasons (albeit with generally promising finishes), and high-profile offseason signings Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier offered little in the way of amends.  Brandon Nimmo’s newfound power stroke was a pleasant surprise, but for the most part, New York relied far too heavily on ineffective veterans and underperforming youngsters.

The rotation, however, was a different story.  Jacob deGrom, currently on pace for the third lowest ERA in franchise history at 1.78, is in the midst of an historic streak, having allowed 3 ER or fewer in 27 consecutive starts, the longest such streak in major league history. DeGrom, who turned 30 in June, is under control through the 2020 season and could be a prime trade chip for a franchise in desperate need of an overhaul. Of course, all indications are that the Mets don’t want to part with their best player. As for Noah Syndergaard, the man they call Thor has turned in another stellar season. Even if he failed to produce results quite as dominant as some might wish, he finished with 9.30 K/9 against 2.39 BB/9 and again limited homers at an elite rate.  Syndergaard’s age (26) and remaining years of team control (3) make him nearly as attractive a trade piece as DeGrom, though health is perhaps something of an ongoing question. Thor’s career FIP- (park- and league-adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching) of 67 ranks 17th all-time among hurlers and trails only the late Jose Fernandez and Clayton Kershaw among qualified starting pitchers.

Of course, those two hurlers were expected to perform. Even as Matt Harvey foundered and ended up departing, the Mets found a hugely valuable piece in a rather unexpected place. Former top prospect Zack Wheeler, whose early-career success was interrupted by a brutal run of injuries, enjoyed a renaissance as the summer progressed – turning the corner from poor results last year and early in 2018. Wheeler exhibited much-improved command, evidenced by a career-best 2.71 BB/9, which allowed him to compile 4.2 fWAR – easily eclipsing his career total over parts of three seasons with New York.  Even Steven Matz, who struggled for much of the season’s first half, has turned in six consecutive quality starts while lowering his ERA to 4.03, and, perhaps more importantly, has bucked the injury bug that’s bit him routinely throughout his 9-year professional career.

The prospective new regime in New York will have much to consider in their first few months on the job, not least of which will be the fate of their talented young hurlers.  Wheeler, 28, will enter Free Agency after the 2019 season and is the most likely candidate to be dealt, but a full-scale sell-off would go a long way toward replenishing a top-heavy farm and big league roster that shows more atrophy than promise.  DeGrom and Syndergaard would, without question, net franchise-altering returns, but are they moves that ownership (with a new front office regime expected) will be willing to make?  The winter of 2018 promises to be a fascinating one in the Big Apple.

Marlins: Superstar catcher

In a season with perhaps the lowest league-wide expectations since, well, the one following the last Marlins firesale, the new Miami regime had little to look forward to in 2018, and, as it turned out, even less to smile about.

The pitching staff was an unmitigated disaster, with 29 hurlers combining to post a 127 ERA- through the season’s first 152 games, easily the worst mark in MLB.  Signs of life were scarce, though offseason acquisition Caleb Smith did strike out 10.24 batters per nine across 16 starts, showcasing a live fastball and a slider that ranked among the league’s best.  And Trevor Richards, signed out of the independent Frontier League in July of 2016, rode a devastating changeup throughout the minors to the big league rotation in ’18, where poor command and a propensity for the gopher ball led to a 4.95 ERA mark through 23 starts, though he has struck out over a batter per nine as well.

Things weren’t much rosier on the offensive side, where just four regulars posted league-average or above batting lines. One of those players, rookie Brian Anderson, has ridden a .268/.351/.391 line and stellar UZR marks to a 3.0 fWAR total thus far in ’18, though his DRS totals are far less generous.  Top prospect Lewis Brinson has posted a putrid .201/.241/.350 line to this point, and minor leaguers Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz, and Magneuris Sierra – key prospect returns in offseason deals that sent away Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich – each struggled mightily at their respective minor league stops in ’18.

But J.T. Realmuto, the Marlins’ 4th-year catcher, has established himself as the premier backstop in the game. His .282/.347/.497 mark thus far is good for a 131 wRC+ in spacious Marlins Park, easily pacing MLB catchers offensively.  And Realmuto is a well-regarded defender and overall athlete. After back to back 3.5+ fWAR seasons leading up to the 2018 campaign, Realmuto has raised the bar even further this season, posting 4.9 fWAR in just 118 games behind the dish.  His 12.4 fWAR since the beginning of the ’16 season is tops among major league catchers, and with the Marlins still in the nascent stages of a wall-to-wall rebuild, he enters the offseason as one of the most coveted trade candidates in all of baseball.  While the Fish have only two more seasons of control to sell, they’ll come at fairly affordable rates. And contending teams in search of a big move will be hard pressed to acquire a similarly appealing alternative behind the dish.

Latest On Dan Duquette, Buck Showalter

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The Orioles are expected to move on from longtime manager Buck Showalter following the 2018 season, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. That meshes with yesterday’s report from Fancred’s Jon Heyman, which called Showalter “likely” to be replaced.

Nightengale adds that general manager Dan Duquette is expected to receive an extension. It seems ownership was impressed by his handling of the team’s trade-deadline sell-off, which launched a full-blown rebuilding effort that had been contemplated — but not ultimately pursued — over the winter.

If the reports prove accurate, Showalter would be at least the second manager not asked back for  the coming season; the Rangers announced earlier this afternoon that they’ve fired Jeff Banister and will be searching for a replacement following the season. Showalter has been the Orioles’ skipper since taking over partway through the 2010 season, helping the team to three postseason berths — including an AL East division title in 2014. Baltimore steamrolled the Tigers in a clean sweep of the ALDS that season before being knocked out of the ALCS by the Royals.

As for Duquette, he’s been with the O’s since the 2011 season and helped to orchestrate those postseason appearances, though his fingerprints are also on this season’s all-time franchise-worst record. To be fair to Duquette, he has seemingly been hamstrung by ownership at times, as Peter Angelos reportedly had little interest in investing on the international amateur free agent market and was also said to be instrumental in bringing back Chris Davis on what could now be considered the worst contract in the sport.

Duquette, if extended, will be tasked with helping to oversee a rebuild not only of the club’s roster but also the team’s entire baseball operations department. Baltimore has lagged behind other teams in terms of international scouting, the implementation of analytics, the use of technology in player evaluation and more. Following this summer’s trade of franchise icon Manny Machado, Duquette vowed that the organization would invest in those areas as it embarked on its rebuilding process.

It’s worth emphasizing, of course, that nothing is yet set in stone. As Dan Connolly wrote yesterday at The Athletic (subscription link), “decisiveness has never been the strong suit at the top of the Orioles’ food chain.” The only aspect of the future that’s all but certain at this point, he wrote, is that Orioles VP Brady Anderson will continue to “remain in a position of influence.” Connolly ran through the possible permutations of outcomes involving Showalter and Duquette, guessing that both of those long-time leaders would end up on the move but noting the ongoing uncertainty.

Beyond that, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the O’s have made a pair of additions to the pro scouting department, hiring veteran evaluators Doug Witt and Rich Amaral. Witt, the brother of former big league pitcher Bobby Witt, is also the uncle of Bobby Witt Jr. — a potential top selection in the 2019 draft. Amaral, a former teammate of Anderson’s, will be a special assignment scout on both the pro and amateur side as well as a baserunning instructor, tweets Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. If those hires offer any clues as to the broader organizational direction, it’s not strictly clear just what they suggest.

Victor Martinez Will Conclude Playing Career This Weekend

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Victor Martinez will take the final at-bat of his career this Saturday, per Chris McCosky of The Detroit News. Friday and Saturday against Kansas City will be the final two games of Martinez’s career.

Victor Martinez

It seems, then, that Martinez has put aside any remaining doubt as to his intentions. He said recently, in reference to the remainder of the 2018 season, that he was “pretty sure this is going to be it,” as Evan Woodberry of MLive.com was among those to cover. It’s now clear that Martinez will hang up his spikes after taking the final at-bat of his career in front of his home crowd in Detroit — which, as Woodberry tweets, is the way the veteran wants to wrap things up.

Martinez, a native of Venezuala, signed as an amateur free agent with the Cleveland Indians in 1996. After breaking into the majors as a catcher with the Indians in 2002, Martinez played his first full season as a 24-year-old the following season. Cleveland traded their star catcher to the Boston Red Sox at the 2009 deadline for a package of Nick Hagadone, Justin Masterson, and Bryan Price. After finishing out the 2009 season with a disappointing ALDS loss to the Angels, Martinez returned to Boston for the 2010 seasons – his last year of playing full-time at catcher.

As a free agent in 2011, Martinez joined the Detroit Tigers on a four-year, $50MM contract, where he became a primary designated hitter. The Tigers won the AL Central in all four seasons of Martinez’ initial deal, prompting the Tigers to re-sign him after the 2014 season to a second four-year pact, this one worth $68MM. That contract runs out at the end of this season.

The last two seasons have not been kind to Martinez, but he was legitimately one of the most feared hitters in the American League for a ten-year stretch from 2004-2014. His best season came with the Tigers in 2014 when he hit .335/.409/.565, leading the league with an impressive .974 OPS. For his career, Martinez slashed .296/.360/.455, with 246 home runs and a 118 OPS+, making the All-Star team five times and winning a Silver Slugger Award twice – in 2004 as a catcher and in 2014 as a DH.

Unfortunately, Martinez never won a World Series, but he was no stranger to the postseason, reaching the ALCS with Cleveland in 2007 and again with Detroit in 2011. Martinez missed the entirety of the 2012 season after tearing his left ACL during offseason conditioning, which was – unfortunately for Martinez – the year Detroit won the American League Pennant, getting swept by the San Francisco Giants in the World Series.

With 32.3 career rWAR, there’s a Hall of Fame case to be made for the switch-hitting catcher/1B/DH – but it’s unlikely. His 30.6 JAWS score puts him well below the average Hall of Fame score of 44.0 for catchers, but certainly impressive enough to receive some votes and remain on the ballot for a few years. Nevertheless, Saturday will mark the final playing time in a long and impressive career for Martinez, who turns 40 in December. Martinez will retire having made over $140MM across 16 major league seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Tigers Select Harold Castro

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The Tigers have selected the contract of infielder Harold Castro, per a club announcement. A roster spot was freed by placing injured starter Michael Fulmer on the 60-day DL.

Castro, 24, has not done much at all with the bat in the upper minors. Through 367 plate appearances this year at Double and Triple-A, he posted a .265/.283/.319 batting line with a pair of home runs and just nine walks.

Still, the Venezuelan could perhaps be a candidate to hold a 40-man spot through the winter if the Detroit organization feels he can contribute over time in a utility role. Castro has spent most of his time as a professional at second base, but has also lined up at short, third, and all three outfield positions.

As for Fulmer, the move doesn’t tell us anything new. It was already clear that he was done for the season when he underwent knee surgery yesterday.

Rangers Fire Jeff Banister

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1:00pm: The Rangers have announced that Banister has been relieved of his duties. Wakamatsu will finish out the season as the interim manager.

12:42pm: The Rangers will not bring manager Jeff Banister back for a fifth season in 2019, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Banister is under contract for next season, but he’ll earn his reported $950K salary while someone else takes the helm for the Rangers, it seems. Grant notes that Banister will not finish out the season, and bench coach Don Wakamatsu will likely serve as the interim skipper.

It’s a jarring fall for Banister, the 2015 American League Manager of the Year. He guided the Rangers to a pair of winning records and a consecutive American League Division Series appearances in 2015-16 — his first two at the helm of a Major League organization. The 2017 Rangers disappointed but hung around in the race until September, ultimately finishing at 78-84. The Rangers have ensured a worse record than that in 2018 with 88 losses already in the books.

Certainly, it’d be unfair to place the entirety of the 2018 team’s failures on Banister’s shoulders. He was scarcely afforded a rotation to work with as the Rangers performed a series of half-measures last offseason, declining to enter a definitive rebuild but also paring back payroll and signing a series of stopgaps for the rotation. Texas came out of the gates strong with a three-year deal for Mike Minor to return to a starting role, but that was paired with low-cost additions of Doug Fister, Matt Moore and Bartolo Colon. Moore, perhaps, could’ve been considered an upside play, but pairing that unit with Minor and the returning Cole Hamels never looked like anywhere near enough to have a realistic shot at contending in 2018.

That said, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram’s Jeff Wilson reported in a detailed column yesterday that Banister’s communication skills with his players had come under fire recently, with pitchers sometimes not knowing when their next start would be while some position players would find themselves in the lineup having previously been assured a day off. Texas also burned through several closers very quickly under Banister’s watch, with Shawn Tolleson flaming out in 2016 after being used on five consecutive days to close out the 2015 regular season. Sam Dyson, another bullpen workhorse under Banister, had dismal 2017 results after a heavy workload in 2016, though he’s since bounced back in San Francisco.

Wakamatsu, Grant further tweets, figures to become a candidate to take over the club on a full-time basis in 2019 and beyond. That said, the Rangers will surely interview candidates from outside the organization as they look for a developmentally-inclined skipper to help them through some degree of a rebuilding process. It’s not clear whether the Rangers will retain any of the current coaching staff, though the fact that Wakamatsu will be considered as a replacement bodes well for his chances of returning in some capacity.

MLB Places Addison Russell On Administrative Leave

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Melisa Reidy, the ex-wife of Cubs shortstop Addison Russell, has released a detailed account of the events that led to the couple’s separation and eventual divorce, alleging that Russell abused her verbally, emotionally and physically over the course of a short and tumultuous marriage. In the wake of that statement, Major League Baseball announced that Russell has been placed on paid administrative leave, as is typical during investigations under the MLB-MLBPA Join Domestic Violence Policy.

It’s the second time that allegations have been brought forth against Russell. The first instance came when a friend of Reidy spoke out on Instagram; Reidy, in the process of separating and filing for divorce at the time, did not cooperate with MLB’s investigation. Now, it stands to reason that this latest account from the alleged victim herself will bring forth a second and more serious investigation from the league. It’s unclear whether the relevant law enforcement authorities are investigating the allegations and/or whether criminal charges could be pursued.

Reidy describes multiple instances of Russell becoming physically violent, alleging that he “[laid] his hands on [her]” and “physically mistreated” her. She also details a series of verbal and emotional abuse, including intimidation via the threat of physical force. Needless to say, the allegations against Russell are serious and disturbing. At the very least, they’ll fall under the purview of Major League Baseball’s domestic abuse agreement, which gives commissioner Rob Manfred the authority to issue punishment even in the absence of criminal proceedings. (Presently, it’s not clear if Reidy plans to press charges, though the allegations could carry criminal implications as well.)

The Cubs offered the following statement:

“We take allegations of domestic violence seriously and support the League’s decision to place Addison Russell on administrative leave given new details revealed today.  We will continue to cooperate with the League’s investigation so the appropriate action can be taken.”

Cubs owner Tom Ricketts and president of baseball operations Theo Epstein each addressed the matter in greater detail, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Tribune covers. Both expressed agreement with the league’s decision to place Russell on leave while indicating that he had denied the allegations to them in a meeting held this morning.

Russell has issued a statement through the MLB Players Association, asserting:

“These allegations are completely false. I made that clear to Major League Baseball last year and reiterated it to the Cubs today. I’m confident any full and fair investigation will fully exonerate me. The protection of my children is foremost in my mind so I will have no further comment.”

Notably, per Wittenmyer, the organization’s expectation is that Russell will not appear on the field again this season, though there has been no formal determination to that effect. It is common for such leave to be extended throughout the duration of an investigation, though we’ve not previously seen these type of allegations surface in such close proximity to the postseason. With that in mind, it’s worth noting that a regular-season suspension under the league’s domestic violence policy, in and of itself, does not preclude a player from participating in the postseason. (PED-related suspensions do preclude postseason participation, by rule.) It’s also worth bearing in mind, though, that league investigations are often lengthy endeavors; Roberto Osuna, for instance, was on administrative leave for roughly six weeks before Manfred and the league made a determination.

MLBTR has closed its comments section for this post. 

Royals Reportedly Set For Payroll Reduction In 2019

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The Royals entered the 2018 season with a payroll of roughly $122MM — their fourth straight season with a $100MM-plus payroll — but Fancred’s Jon Heyman writes in his latest notes column that the team is expected to pare that figure back by as much as $30-35MM for the 2019 campaign.

Scaling back the payroll isn’t exactly a shock for a club that has been working to rebuild its farm system, though the cut described by Heyman would be a fairly substantial downturn in on-field spending. Unlike the Marlins, though, who slashed payroll to similar levels this past offseason, the Royals won’t have to orchestrate any type of fire sale to do so. They already saved money by trading impending free agents like Kelvin Herrera, Mike Moustakas and Jon Jay prior to the non-waiver trade deadline (plus Lucas Duda and Drew Butera in August). The Royals are also paying Travis Wood, Joakim Soria and Brandon Moss in 2018 as part of previous trades to shed each of those contracts; all of those obligations will be off the books come 2019.

[Related: Kansas City Royals depth chart]

After all those subtractions, the Royals have about $69.5MM on the books for the 2019 season by way of guaranteed contracts for Alex Gordon, Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy, Salvador Perez and Jorge Soler. They’ll have several arbitration cases in the form of Brandon Maurer, Nate Karns, Brian Flynn, Cheslor Cuthbert, Jesse Hahn and Paulo Orlando, though some (if not most) of that group could be non-tendered this winter.

It’s unlikely that the Kansas City front office will be able to find a taker for any of the team’s most onerous financial commitments (Kennedy, Gordon), and it seems equally unlikely that the team would sell low on Duffy or Perez coming off lackluster seasons. Perez’s power numbers remain quite strong, but he’s turned in a career-worst .270 OBP to date — third worst among qualified MLB hitters. Duffy, meanwhile, posted a 4.88 ERA through 155 innings in a season that was marred by shoulder issues.

The Royals could organically scale back payroll by as much as $50MM, though it seems reasonable to expect that they’ll invest some funds in second- and third-tier free-agent pickups. They’re not likely to contend next season even with the rampant mediocrity that permeates the AL Central, but GM Dayton Moore has been candid about his desire to improve the on-field product sooner rather than later. To that end, Moore and his staff prioritized near-MLB assets in many of their trades over the past calendar year, landing players like Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez, Heath Fillmyer, Trevor Oaks and Jerry Vasto. The Royals were also aggressive in the Rule 5 Draft (Brad Keller, Burch Smith) and picked up cast-offs with MLB experience from other organizations (Brian Goodwin, Ben Lively) over the summer.

Adding some low-cost veterans on short-term deals could help to field a more competitive product than the one the Royals trotted out for much of 2018 — and a full season of Adalberto Mondesi won’t hurt, either. Such investments could also present the opportunity to further stock the farm with some upper-level talent prior to the 2019 non-waiver deadline (as was the case with last winter’s Moustakas reunion, which ultimately netted both Phillips and Lopez).

Mets Notes: Flores, Smith, Wheeler

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The Mets announced to reporters yesterday that they’ve shut down infielder Wilmer Flores for the remainder of the season after he was diagnosed with early onset arthritis in both knees (links via Newsday’s Anthony Rieber and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo). It’s a curious diagnosis for a player who has yet to celebrate his 28th birthday, though Flores suggested that he doesn’t believe the issue will have a significant impact on his immediate future. For the time being, he received an injection in each knee with the hope that it’ll curtail the symptoms he’s been feeling.

Asked about how the dual knee issues could impact Flores’ future with the team, manager Mickey Callaway was noncommittal. “I think that really depends on what the rest of our team looks like,” said Callaway. “He can definitely obviously fill in, and start, and swing the bat well and play good enough defense. … We’ll just have to see what the makeup of our team looks like next year.” Flores is arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter and hit .267/.319/.417 in 429 plate appearances.

More on the Mets…

  • Dominic Smith’s future with the Mets is up in the air after a lost season, writes Mike Puma of the New York Post. The former first-rounder was recently viewed as the organization’s first baseman of the future, but that distinction could very belong to rising slugger Peter Alonso, who had a huge season between Double-A and Triple-A. The Mets have tried Smith in left field, though with Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Nimmo, Yoenis Cespedes (once he recovers from surgery on both heels) and others in the mix, his chances there could be slim as well. Smith chats with Puma about some of his 2018 struggles and his own cognizance of the crowded path between him and regular at-bats with the Mets, expressing confidence in his abilities and acknowledging that all he can do is force the team’s hand with a big showing next spring (if he’s not traded this offseason).
  • The Mets formally shut Zack Wheeler down for the remainder of the season after a 101-inning increase in his workload from the 2017 season, Puma writes ina a separate column. The 28-year-old enjoyed an enormous rebound season after missing 2015-16 due to injury and pitching on a limited workload last season, as he rode a sensational second half to a 3.31 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.69 HR/9 and a 44.2 percent ground-ball rate on the season overall. Wheeler tossed a total of 182 1/3 innings, and it seems likely that he’ll pitch without any sort of innings limitation next season. Both manager Mickey Callaway and pitching coach Dave Eiland spoke with Puma about the strides Wheeler made in 2018, with Eiland in particular talking about how the dugout staff lobbied against trading the right-hander with the belief that the 2019 season could have a championship-caliber rotation. That’s been the hope in Queens for years, of course, but next year’s top four of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Wheeler and Steven Matz nonetheless looks quite promising if the quartet can finally stay healthy.

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