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Mets To Hire Carlos Beltran As Special Assistant To The GM

By Mark Polishuk | February 5, 2023 at 10:06pm CDT

Carlos Beltran is back with the Mets in a new front office role, according to Jon Heyman, Joel Sherman, and Andrew Marchand of the New York Post.  Beltran will work as an assistant to Mets GM Billy Eppler, SNY’s Andy Martino tweets.  Beltran hasn’t officially signed a contract yet, though “it’s far enough down the line” that Beltran felt secure in leaving his broadcasting job at the YES Network.

The news comes a little over three years after Beltran stepped down as the club’s manager in the aftermath of the Astros sign-stealing scandal, as Beltran ended up resigning without ever actually managing the Mets in a regular-season game.  The scandal created plenty of fallout around baseball, with the Red Sox also firing Alex Cora (who was the Astros’ bench coach in 2017) from his managerial post, and Houston fired both manager A.J. Hinch and general manager Jeff Luhnow.  However, more than three years removed from the scandal, only Luhnow has yet to resurface in a new baseball-related role.  The Red Sox re-hired Cora after the 2020 season was over, while the Tigers hired Hinch as their new skipper in advance of the 2021 campaign.

For Beltran, he returned to the fold last year, covering the Yankees as part of the YES Network’s team.  Marchand reports that YES was going to shift Beltran from calling games into a studio position for pre-game and postgame coverage heading into 2023, though Beltran recently told the network that he wasn’t returning next season.

In terms of on-field jobs, the Padres had some interest in Beltran for a coaching role last winter.  There were also speculative rumblings about a possible reunion between Beltran and the Mets last year, and Heyman, Sherman, and Marchand write that Beltran was indeed under consideration to be New York’s assistant hitting coach.

Instead, Beltran will now be working in the Amazins’ front office.  This marks the second front office job of Beltran’s career, as he worked as a special assistant to Yankees GM Brian Cashman in 2019.  The Yankees also considered hiring Beltran as manager before Aaron Boone got the job in the 2017-18 offseason, which would’ve marked an even quicker transition for Beltran given that he had only just ended his playing career when the Astros won the 2017 World Series.

While it raised some eyebrows when the Mets hired a manager who had never managed or coached at any level before, it wasn’t an entirely shocking move, given how much respect Beltran commanded around the game.  Even before he retired, Beltran was often cited as a possible future manager, or a future front-office executive after he took the advisory role with the Yankees.  Of course, that natural leadership ability was a double-edged sword, given that Beltran was reportedly the player who had the biggest role in the Astros’ sign-stealing methods, both helping to mastermind the plan and influencing teammates to follow suit.

No Astros players faced any punishment for their roles in the scandal, as the league gave players immunity in exchange for their details and information about the sign-stealing activities.  Of course, Beltran did end up being unofficially punished via the loss of his managerial job, just two months after being hired.  It is also fair to assume that the scandal impacted Beltran’s first appearance on the Hall of Fame ballot — while Beltran received a solid 46.5% of the vote and seems on pace to eventually be inducted, it is still a sharp drop for a player considered a shoo-in choice at the time of his retirement.

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New York Mets Carlos Beltran

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AL Notes: Ohtani, Angels, Vespi, Yoshida, Red Sox

By Mark Polishuk | February 5, 2023 at 9:34pm CDT

Despite the busy Angels offseason, Shohei Ohtani’s future remains the team’s biggest question in 2023, and Arte Moreno’s decision not to sell the Angels adds another layer of intrigue to Ohtani’s situation.  Speaking with reporters (including the Associated Press), Halos GM Perry Minasian reiterated that the organization would love to keep Ohtani, and suggested that Moreno was willing to pay Ohtani the record-setting contract it might take to keep the two-way star in Anaheim.  “[Moreno has] already invested in this club throughout his whole ownership.  We’ve been top-10 in payroll for a long time,” Minasian said.  “I don’t see that changing.  Knowing [Moreno] and knowing how much he wants to win, I wouldn’t put anything out of the realm of possibility.”

Desire to win notwithstanding, Moreno’s ability to construct a winning team is the another factor, as the Angels are mired in a string of seven consecutive losing seasons.  Unsurprisingly, Ohtani was openly disappointed by the Halos’ lackluster 2022 campaign, and any doubts he has about the Angels’ ability to compete might possibly result in Ohtani signing with a more proven contender next winter.  Even if Moreno is willing to splurge on Ohtani and take the Angels into luxury tax territory, it might not be enough to sway Ohtani from a comparable offer from a winning team.

More from around the American League….

  • Orioles left-hander Nick Vespi underwent hernia surgery in early January, and the reliever told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko that he is “cleared to throw, so I am starting to throw already and I’ll be ready for Opening Day.”  There was some doubt as to whether or not Vespi’s recovery process might last into the early part of the season, and while it appears that might not be an issue, Vespi will miss pitching for Italy in the World Baseball Classic.  Vespi made his MLB debut in 2022, posting a 4.10 ERA over 26 1/3 innings out of the Orioles’ bullpen.  Cionel Perez and Keegan Akin are Baltimore’s top southpaw options in the relief corps, though Vespi may face further competition from any left-handed starting candidates who don’t make the rotation.
  • The Red Sox signed Masataka Yoshida to a five-year, $90MM deal in December, an investment that surpassed all projections for Yoshida as he made the move from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors.  That said, the Sox also feel “other teams were prepared to bid more aggressively for Yoshida than has been widely reported,” the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes.  The Blue Jays and Dodgers were reportedly the other finalists for Yoshida’s services, though it isn’t known what those two clubs were willing to pay.  The $90MM guarantee is also a sign of just how much faith the Red Sox have in Yoshida’s ability to continue his production against Major League pitching, which is a belief born from heavy scouting and evaluation of Yoshida in Japan over the last three years.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Angels Notes Masataka Yoshida Nick Vespi Shohei Ohtani

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | February 5, 2023 at 8:28pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat

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MLBTR Chats

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Rays Notes: Adam, Peralta, Extensions

By Mark Polishuk | February 5, 2023 at 5:36pm CDT

The Rays and right-hander Jason Adam have had some talks about a multi-year deal, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports, in advance of Adam’s upcoming arbitration hearing.  Adam is one of seven Rays players who couldn’t reach an agreement with the team before the filing deadline, though three of those players (Yandy Diaz, Pete Fairbanks, and Jeffrey Springs) have since signed longer-term contract extensions.  This leaves Harold Ramirez, Colin Poche, Ryan Thompson, and Adam still without deals for the 2023 season, until either the arbiter makes their decision or unless the Rays and any of the players avoid arbitration by working out a contract.

Adam is in his first year of arb eligibility, and there isn’t a huge gap between the two sides — the 31-year-old is seeking $1.775MM while the Rays countered with $1.55MM.  After intriguing but inconsistent results in his first four MLB campaigns, Adam signed with the Rays last winter and enjoyed the best overall season of his career.  The righty posted a 1.56 ERA over 63 1/3 innings in Tampa, with one of the best sets of Statcast metrics of any reliever in baseball.

More from Tropicana Field…

  • Also from Topkin’s piece, he writes that is still a “possibility” of a reunion between the Rays and David Peralta, as the club is still looking for a left-handed bat to add some balance to the lineup.  Tampa Bay acquired Peralta in a trade with the Diamondbacks last July, and Peralta hit .255/.317/.355 over 47 games and 180 plate appearances with the Rays.  This modest performance could have been injury-related, as Topkin reports that Peralta underwent a procedure this offseason to fix disc herniation in his lower back.  The Rangers and Yankees have each been linked to Peralta this winter, though this injury situation might explain why the veteran outfielder’s free agent market has been relatively quiet.  Prior to the trade, Peralta was enjoying a nice season with the D’Backs, hitting .248/.316/.460 with 12 homers in 310 PA for Arizona.
  • The aforementioned spate of extensions allowed the Rays to cut down on their arbitration prep, while also having the obvious benefit of locking up players the club likes as part of a winning nucleus.  “We’re always looking to keep players we really appreciate around longer, if we can….We think really highly of this group, and we believe in continuity when we can make it happen,” president of baseball operations Erik Neander told MLB.com’s Adam Berry and other reporters.  “It’s often been hard for us to make that happen here with the right mix of players.  I think we’re in a really fortunate spot where we can do that right now.  And more than anything, extending the chance for this group to play together a little longer is probably the greatest benefit.”  Since Tampa Bay had a somewhat slow offseason, it also gave the team more payroll space to afford the extensions.
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Notes Tampa Bay Rays David Peralta Jason Adam

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Twins Sign Locke St. John To Minor League Deal

By Darragh McDonald | February 5, 2023 at 2:39pm CDT

The Twins have signed left-hander Locke St. John to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He’ll presumably receive an invitation to major league Spring Training.

St. John, 30, has eight major league games on his track record thus far, with seven of those coming with the 2019 Rangers. He posted a 5.40 for Texas that year in a small sample size, getting outrighted off the roster in September. In 2021, he signed a minor league deal with the Tigers and had a strong season, though never got called up to the big leagues. He tossed 59 1/3 innings for the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens with a 2.58 ERA, striking out 29.2% of opponents and walking 9.7%.

2022 was a less of a success for St. John, however. He began the year on a minor league deal with the Cubs, eventually getting selected to the big league roster. He made one appearance for the Cubs but allowed three earned runs in two innings of work. He was claimed off waivers by the Mets but they kept him in the minors and later outrighted him. Between the two organizations, he threw 49 Triple-A innings with a 5.88 ERA, striking out just 18.7% of hitters while giving free passes at a 12.6% clip.

Despite that down season, the Twins will give him a shot to see if he can get back to the solid form he showed in 2021. The Twins have a couple of lefties likely to be in their bullpen in Caleb Thielbar and Jovani Moran but the only other southpaw on the 40-man is starter Brent Headrick. St. John will give the club another non-roster option in that department, alongside Danny Coulombe and various other depth arms. If St. John can earn his way onto the roster, he still has a couple of option seasons and less than a year of MLB service time.

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Minnesota Twins Transactions Locke St. John

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Yankees Sign Ian Hamilton To Minor League Deal

By Darragh McDonald | February 5, 2023 at 12:45pm CDT

The Yankees have signed right-hander Ian Hamilton to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. Hamilton will presumably be invited to participate in major league Spring Training.

Hamilton, 28 in June, has 15 scattered major league appearances, with 10 of those coming in 2018, four in 2020 and one last year. He has a 4.91 ERA over 14 2/3 innings in that time, striking out 14.1% of hitters while walking 12.5% of them and posting a 39.1% ground ball rate.

Last year, he was in the Twins’ system but not on the 40-man roster. He was briefly added to the big league club as a COVID substitute, making a single appearance of 2 2/3 innings. He made 23 appearances for the Triple-A St. Paul Saints, posting a 1.88 ERA with a 32.1% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 51.6% ground ball rate. He was then traded to the Guardians for catcher Sandy León, but the switch seemed to throw him off his rhythm. He posted a 6.27 ERA in 15 appearances after the deal with his walk rate jumping up to 13.1%, though he still got strikeouts at a 28.6% rate and kept 50% of balls in play on the ground.

Between the two organizations, Hamilton posted a 3.61 ERA in 47 1/3 Triple-A innings while striking out 30.6% of batters faced and getting grounders on more than half of balls in play. His 9.7% combined walk rate was a bit high, but it was still a solid showing and the Yankees are intrigued enough to give him a closer look. The club has lost some bullpen pieces this winter, with Chad Green, Aroldis Chapman and Miguel Castro having signed elsewhere, while Zack Britton is still a free agent. The most significant addition to the Yankee bullpen so far has been the signing of Tommy Kahnle, but Hamilton will provide some non-roster depth and try to earn his way into the club’s plans. If he can succeed in that regard, he still has an option season remaining and comes with plenty of club control since he’s yet to cross the one-year service time mark.

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New York Yankees Transactions Ian Hamilton

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Quick Hits: Muñoz, Sadler, Vavra

By Darragh McDonald | February 5, 2023 at 10:55am CDT

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto spoke with the media this week, including Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN, in advance of the start of Spring Training. During those talks, Dipoto provided an update on reliever Andrés Muñoz.

Muñoz, 24, had a tremendous breakout last year, posting a 2.49 earned run average over 64 appearances. That ERA probably shortchanges Munoz a bit, who struck out 38.7% of batters faced while walking just 6% of them and got ground balls at a 52.6% clip. ERA estimators all thought he actually deserved better, including a 2.04 FIP, 1.84 xERA and 1.74 SIERA. After the club was eliminated from the postseason in October, he underwent foot surgery, but he’s already out of a walking boot and began a throwing program two weeks ago.

The fireballer has emerged as a key piece of the club’s bullpen, something they seemingly anticipated when they extended him after the 2021 season. The righty had just returned from Tommy John surgery and made a single appearance that year, but the M’s had enough faith to sign him to a four-year, $7.5MM extension with three club options. That could keep him as a fixture of the club’s relief corps through the 2028 season, and his current health is surely a good sign for the club going into 2023.

Other notes from around the league…

  • Dipoto also provided an update on another reliever in 32-year-old Casey Sadler, who is coming off a season lost to shoulder surgery but is going to be ready to go for Spring Training this year. In 2021, Sadler made 42 appearances for the M’s with a ridiculous 0.67 ERA. That level of run prevention was in no way sustainable, with Sadler benefitting from a .188 batting average on balls in play and 90.9% strand rate. But his 25.5% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 62.9% ground ball rate all point to an excellent campaign nonetheless, with Sadler pegged for a 2.48 FIP, 2.41 xERA and 3.06 SIERA. Unfortunately, he required the surgery on his shoulder in March of 2022, which kept him out for all of that year. The Mariners outrighted him off the roster in November but re-signed him to a minor league deal. “If we get that ’21 version of Casey Sadler with the bullpen group we currently have, that just takes us to a different level,” Dipoto said. Despite trading Erik Swanson to the Blue Jays in the Teoscar Hernández deal, the M’s bullpen is still pretty packed. Munoz should be joined by Paul Sewald, Diego Castillo, Matt Brash, Penn Murfee, Matt Festa and Trevor Gott, as well as Rule 5 draftee Chris Clarke. If the rotation is fully healthy, Chris Flexen should be in the bullpen as well as a long reliever. Sadler was so good in 2021 that he could force his way into the picture if he looks like he’s back on track. Despite the crowding, pitcher injuries are fairly inevitable and this pile of depth should serve Seattle well as the season progress.
  • Orioles utility player Terrin Vavra, 26 in May, cracked the majors last year and managed fairly well by hitting .258/.340/.337 in his first 103 plate appearances. That production was just barely below league average, with his wRC+ coming in at 97, though he hit a much sturdier .324/.435/.451 in Triple-A. Between the two levels, he played second base, third base, shortstop, and all three outfield positions, making him a usefully versatile piece of the club’s roster. It seems he’s not satisfied with that level of versatility and has been working to add first base to his repertoire this offseason. “I don’t think until I really play a game over there, I’ll truly feel the most comfortable, but that’s what spring training’s for,” Vavra tells Nathan Ruiz of The Baltimore Sun. “I think I’ll get some opportunities to showcase that and showcase other talents and try and make my case. I want to be able to show that I can do that, and I want the coaching staff to be confident if they had to send me out there, Day 1 of spring training even.” The O’s have been looking to find left-handed bats to complement right-hander Ryan Mountcastle in the first base mix, acquiring Lewin Díaz and Ryan O’Hearn this offseason, as well as signing Franchy Cordero, Josh Lester and Nomar Mazara to minor league deals. But Vavra, who also hits left-handed, could have a leg up on that group since none of them are on the 40-man but Vavra is. On the other hand, Vavra has option years remaining and could be ticketed for some more time in the minors if he gets squeezed off the active roster.
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Baltimore Orioles Notes Seattle Mariners Andres Munoz Casey Sadler Terrin Vavra

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Brandon Crawford Discusses Offseason, Upcoming Campaign

By Darragh McDonald | February 5, 2023 at 8:55am CDT

Brandon Crawford has been a staple of the Giants’ roster for years. Having grown up in the Bay Area a fan of the club, he was drafted by them in 2008 and then made his major league debut in 2011. He has been the regular shortstop in San Francisco for over a decade now, a tenure that includes a pair of World Series titles in 2012 and 2014. That will continue for at least one more season, with 2023 being the final guaranteed season on his current contract.

There were times this offseason when it seemed like that was going to change. The Giants heavily pursued Carlos Correa and agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal that would have seen him take over the position, with Crawford getting bumped to third base. Back in December, Crawford reacted to the news by providing some comments via text message to Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic, seeming accepting of the situation though not exactly enthused. “He is a shortstop and since the signing the other day, I’ve been told that that’s where he’ll stay, so that puts me in a much different situation than I’ve ever been faced with in professional baseball,” Crawford said. “So, the rest of this off-season, spring training, and during the season, I will be working my hardest to be the best I can be at a different position and help us get back to the postseason.”

However, Correa’s free agency still had a few surprising twists remaining. The Giants grew concerned by the health of Correa’s right ankle when going through his physical examination and the deal ultimately fell through. Correa and his reps then worked out a new 12-year deal with the Mets, though that was also scuttled when the Mets found themselves similarly concerned by the ankle. Correa wound up returning to the Twins on a much more modest six-year deal, though with vesting options that can extend it by four further seasons. All of that will now be a footnote in Giants’ history, with the Crawford era at shortstop continuing uninterrupted into 2023.

The club held its Fan Fest event this weekend, with Crawford among the players in attendance, and he spoke to members of the media such as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle and Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. “For about a week, I was mentally preparing myself for the challenges of playing a position like that,” he said. “I wouldn’t say I was necessarily looking forward to it, but at the same time, I was maybe excited for a new challenge. I was watching some Nolan Arenado film. It is what it is at this point. Now I don’t have to worry about that.”

The Giants are heading into 2023 with the 36-year-old Crawford a key piece of their roster, as both he and the club will be looking to bounce back from a rough season. In 2021, Crawford hit .298/.373/.522 for a wRC+ of 138, indicating he was 38% better than the league average hitter. He also got great marks for his glovework and stole 11 bases, leading to a tally of 6.3 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs. That was the highest such mark of his career and helped the Giants to a franchise high win total of 107. But 2022 saw Crawford deal with injuries and slump to .231/.308/.344 and a wRC+ of 80 as the club had an 81-81 season. He thinks he’s well positioned for a better showing in 2023, indicating he believes both his health and the lockout contributed to his woes last year.

“It was really hard to be able to get on a field and take batting practice or do long toss or do some of the ground ball work that I would [usually] do at one of our facilities,” Crawford said of last year’s lockout. “This year, I’ve been able to do all that and hit with our coaches, which is another big thing that I wasn’t able to do last year. They can see where my swing is at and go from there. Also, it’s good having our strength coach and trainers so that if anything pops up, they’re able to have eyes on me and I can work with them.” He also added: “I think I started getting into some bad habits without having our coaches seeing some things and picking up those things that I was creating.

On the health front, Crawford hit the injured list in June of last year due to left knee inflammation, but returned after a minimum 10-day stint. However, the issue persisted and he was back on the IL in mid-July and would miss about three weeks. “That second IL stint was a little bit longer and being able to play a couple of rehab games to make sure that it was feeling better, I think that was a lot smarter and we probably should have done that the first time. But I felt a lot better after that.”

The Giants brought in many free agents for 2023, including Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and Taylor Rogers, but a healthy and effective Crawford could be one of the most significant boosts for the club this season. As mentioned, it will be the final year on the extension Crawford signed in August of 2021 and decisions will have to be made about the years ahead. “There’s definitely been some thought,” Crawford says. “I wouldn’t say I have an answer one way or the other on what I want to do. There’s definitely been some talk and I’ve thought about it for sure, but yeah, I wouldn’t be able to give you an answer right now.”

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San Francisco Giants Brandon Crawford

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Dodgers Notes: Valenzuela, Urias, Vargas, Muncy

By Mark Polishuk | February 5, 2023 at 7:21am CDT

Fernandomania will run wild again at Dodger Stadium this summer, as the Dodgers officially announced that Fernando Valenzuela’s number #34 will be retired during the team’s series with the Rockies on August 11-13.  While the #34 jersey hasn’t been issued to another Dodgers player since Valenzuela departed following the 1990 season, the number hadn’t been ceremonially taken out of circulation due to the club’s unofficial policy of only retiring the numbers of players who had been inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Valenzuela’s 17-year Major League career began with 11 seasons with Los Angeles from 1980-90, and he posted a 3.31 ERA over his 2348 2/3 innings in Dodger Blue.  After appearing in 10 games as a reliever in 1980, Valenzuela’s spectacular 1981 campaign made him the only player to ever win a Rookie of the Year Award and a Cy Young Award in the same season.  The Mexico native was a fan favorite everywhere, but in particular became a hero amongst the Mexican-American population in Southern California.  Valenzuela’s time in L.A. saw him achieve three more top-five finishes in NL Cy Young voting, make six All-Star appearances, and win two World Series titles in 1981 and 1988.

More from Chavez Ravine…

  • From one Mexican-born star pitcher to another, as Julio Urias is “100% focused on the field” as he heads into his final season before free agency.  Urias told The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and other reporters that his “representatives and [the Dodgers] will have their chance to talk,” but at the moment, “we have the WBC and then we have the season and so those are two things I’m focused on right now.”  Between Urias’ track record and age (he’ll be 27 on Opening Day 2024), he projects to be one of the top free agents on the market next winter, and in line for a gigantic contract.  The Dodgers are no strangers to paying big for premium talent, though clients of Urias’ agent Scott Boras generally end up testing the open market rather than signing extensions, so it remains to be seen whether or not the Dodgers can offer a big enough number to keep Urias in the fold.
  • Most of Miguel Vargas’ experience in the minor leagues has come as a third baseman, but Los Angeles heads into the season planning to use Vargas mostly at second base, with Max Muncy instead manning the hot corner.  The new rules limiting defensive shifts factored into the Dodgers’ decision, and GM Brandon Gomes also cited Vargas athleticism as a reason for his usage at this relatively (Vargas has played 28 games at second base in the minors) new position.  “Vargas is our second- or third-fastest guy on the team, which is probably not appreciated at all,” Gomes told MLB.com’s Juan Toribio and other reporters.  “So he’s also a good athlete.  It’s more about getting him reps and getting his feel at second base.  I think a combination of it all is really strong.”  The Dodgers’ penchant for defensive flexibility means that Vargas and Muncy might change positions in some games, but Toribio writes that the team “rated Muncy very highly” as a third baseman last year.  Public defensive metrics have traditionally been pretty split on Muncy’s work at either second or third base, though the new rules might indeed make third base the more logical spot for Muncy going forward.
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Los Angeles Dodgers Notes Julio Urias Max Muncy Miguel Vargas

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Giants, Logan Webb Have Talked About Long-Term Extension

By Mark Polishuk | February 4, 2023 at 9:57pm CDT

The Giants have had some talks with ace right-hander Logan Webb about a long-term contract, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.  Neither Zaidi or Webb gave any specifics about the nature of the talks, or whether or not a deal could be anywhere close to completion.

Webb was arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason, and he and the Giants avoided a hearing by agreeing to a one-year, $4.6MM deal prior to the filing deadline.  The righty has two more arb years remaining before he is scheduled to hit free agency following the 2025 season, and since Webb only turned 26 last November, he’ll still be in his prime when he reaches the open market.

The Giants’ willingness to sign long-term contracts has long been a topic of conversation during Zaidi’s tenure, as the club hasn’t officially gone beyond three guaranteed years to any player since Zaidi was hired following the 2018 season.  Of course, that fact carries a significant asterisk, as the Giants thought they’d signed Carlos Correa to a 13-year, $350MM contract in December before concerns from Correa’s physical about the shortstop’s right leg and ankle prevented the deal from being finalized.  San Francisco was also a prime bidder for both Aaron Judge this offseason and Bryce Harper in the 2018-19 offseason, indicating that Zaidi’s front office is willing to splurge for a premium talent.

After two excellent seasons in the Giants’ rotation, Webb certainly looks like a blue-chip talent in his own right.  A fourth-round pick for the Giants in the 2014 draft, the native of Rocklin, California had a 5.36 ERA over 94 innings in 2019-20, though the FIP (4.15) and xFIP (4.25) metrics and a .340 BABIP indicated that Webb’s ERA was in part due to bad luck.

That fortune changed in 2021-22, when Webb had a 2.96 ERA, 58.4% grounder rate, 23.2% strikeout rate, and 6.1% walk rate over 340 2/3 innings.  While Webb’s K% and whiff rate dipped below average in 2022, he made up for it with strong control and a strong ability to keep the ball on the ground.  Among all qualified pitchers, only Houston’s Framber Valdez has had a better groundball rate than Webb over the last two seasons.  Webb’s FIP and xFIP from 2021-2022 are pretty similar to his ERA (and his .299 BABIP is roughly average), though the argument can certainly be made that such a grounder-heavy pitcher could’ve been even more effective in front of a better defense than the Giants’ collection of subpar infield gloves.

Health-wise, Webb missed about six weeks with a shoulder strain in 2021, and a lower-back strain sent him to the IL right at the end of the 2022 campaign.  Webb underwent a Tommy John surgery in 2016, and he also served an 80-game PED suspension in 2019 after testing positive for dehydrochlormethyltestosterone.

Any injury history comes under more of a microscope in the wake of the Correa situation, though on paper, it would seem like the Giants can be reasonably confident about Webb’s long-term health.  While discussing an extension with a young star is due diligence for any team, the fact that the Giants have already had some level of negotiation with Webb’s representatives at the ACES agency is perhaps also a hint that the team is comfortable in making a long-term commitment.

Sandy Alcantara’s five-year, $56MM extension with the Marlins from November 2021 stands out as a logical comp for Webb’s camp, in no small part because it is currently the largest deal ever given to a pitcher with between three and four years of Major League service time.  Alcantara signed that extension at age-26 (the same age as Webb now) and the two hurlers also share a similar profile as grounder-heavy pitchers.

There is a slight difference in that Alcantara was also in his first offseason of arbitration eligibility at the time of the extension, but hadn’t yet agreed to his salary for the next year.  As such, his deal covered all three arb years, Alcantara’s first two free agent years, and possibly the 2027 season if Miami exercises a $21MM club option.  Though a Webb extension could overwrite his 2023 salary, a new deal would theoretically begin with the 2024 season, meaning that the Giants would have to pay a larger price if wanted to cover another one of Webb’s free agent years.

In terms of long-term payroll, San Francisco has plenty of open space for the future, with such big salaries as Joc Pederson, Brandon Crawford, Alex Wood and (depending on player or club options) Michael Conforto, Ross Stripling, and Alex Cobb all potentially coming off the books next winter.  It leaves the Giants with lots of flexibility in locking up Webb as a cornerstone piece of a rotation that is otherwise filled with veterans on shorter-term contracts, and the team still has plenty of space to pursue other high-priced free agent or trade targets next winter after missing out on Correa and Judge.

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San Francisco Giants Logan Webb

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