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Poll: Bryce Harper, Manny Machado And The Phillies

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On several occasions over the past decade, the Phillies have shown a willingness to spend among the league’s elite. However, because the Phillies were recently amid a full-fledged rebuild, the big-market club took major steps backward in the spending department. Last year, with Philadelphia aiming to make a sizable leap in the standings, the team began with a modest $95MM-plus in commitments. Two expensive signings from last offseason – right-hander Jake Arrieta (three years, $75MM) and first baseman Carlos Santana (three years, $60MM) –  easily served as the Phillies’ priciest players in 2018, and the duo did help the team make legitimate progress. The Phillies notched their best record since 2012 (80-82), totaling 14 more wins than they amassed in 2017, but they finished under .500 for the sixth consecutive season and extended their playoff drought to seven years.

Santana is now on the block, though his potential exit isn’t a sign that the Phillies are looking to cut costs. Quite the contrary, actually, as owner John Middleton has publicly declared that the Phillies won’t be bashful when it comes to doling out money. In fact, while discussing the Phillies’ offseason plans on Friday, Middleton proclaimed  that “we’re going into this expecting to spend money. And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it. We just prefer not to be completely stupid.”

Even before Middleton made it known that Philadelphia’s looking to go big-game hunting, expectations were that the franchise would spend aggressively this winter. After all, the open market now features two of the most enticing free agents ever in outfielder Bryce Harper and infielder Manny Machado. Combining the Phillies’ spending capabilities with the lack of guaranteed money on their books beyond 2020, pursuits of both Harper and Machado have seemed like foregone conclusions. Both players stand a strong chance of surpassing the richest contract in baseball history – the 13-year, $325MM extension outfielder Giancarlo Stanton signed with the Marlins in 2014 – and the Phillies are among the teams truly capable of spending that type of cash. What’s more, if any one organization is going to sign both Harper and Machado, the Phillies are on a very short list of realistic possibilities.

The need for Harper, Machado or both in Philadelphia is obvious, as either player would clearly boost a position player group which ranked 22nd in runs and 23rd in fWAR in 2018. The Phillies’ 48 hitters accounted for 12.4 fWAR, while Machado (6.2) and Harper (3.5) combined for 9.7 by themselves. The two 26-year-olds have been among the game’s most feared hitters throughout their decorated careers, though Machado has also provided plenty of value as a third baseman. The former Oriole and Dodger would do the same in Philadelphia, which got so-so production at the hot corner from Maikel Franco, current free agent Asdrubal Cabrera and J.P. Crawford, among others, in 2018. Franco’s now penciled in as the Phillies’ 2019 starter at third, but that spot’s ripe for an upgrade.

Philadelphia is seemingly even worse off at shortstop, Machado’s preferred position and where he spent the majority of last season. Machado didn’t have a banner year defensively, but he did place first among shortstops in wRC+ (141) and second in both home runs (38) and fWAR. The Phillies, on the other hand, received a microscopic 0.7 fWAR from shortstops Scott Kingery, Crawford, Cabrera and Pedro Florimon, and their combined wRC+ (74) was barely more than half of Machado’s.

Fortunately for the Phillies, their 2018 outfield wasn’t as toothless as the left side of their infield. That doesn’t mean it’s an area of strength, however. Aside from slugger Rhys Hoskins, who overcame horrific defense to log a respectable fWAR (2.9), the Phillies got mediocre or worse overall production from outfield regulars Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Roman Quinn and Aaron Altherr. Going forward, Hoskins may shift to first base, which explains the team’s willingness to trade Santana and could increase the need for Harper or another high-end outfielder. Harper, like Hoskins, had a year to forget in the field. Defensive ineptitude has hardly been the norm for Harper since he debuted in 2012, though, and he made up for it to an extent by notching another quality year at the plate.

Signing Harper would improve the Phillies’ near-term chances of returning to contention, and there’s an added bonus: Landing him would be a blow to the division-rival Nationals, Harper’s only team to date. The Nats, the reigning NL East champion Braves and the Mets will each push for supremacy in the division next season, but the Phillies could wind up as the favorites if general manager Matt Klentak uses Middleton’s money effectively this winter. While there are plenty of avenues Klentak could explore that don’t involve Harper or Machado, speculation about those two heading to Philadelphia will persist until they officially come off the market.

Jeff Wilpon On deGrom, Syndergaard, Payroll, Front Office

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The Mets aren’t yet prioritizing a contract extension for National League Cy Young Award-winning right-hander Jacob deGrom, COO Jeff Wilpon informed Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News and other reporters Friday. However, the two sides could could begin discussions on a new deal next month. “We’ll talk with the new agent here at some point in the near future, probably see him at the Winter Meetings,” Wilpon said. DeGrom’s situation is particularly interesting because his previous agent, Brodie Van Wagenen, became New York’s general manager last month. But deGrom stayed with the same agency, CAA Baseball, where former Van Wagenen partner Jeff Berry is now representing the soon-to-be 31-year-old hurler. If deGrom, who has two years of arbitration control remaining, does strike a long-term pact with the Mets, it’ll come without Van Wagnen’s direct involvement. While the GM would have to approve an extension, he’ll abstain from contract talks with deGrom in order to avoid a conflict of interest.

  • Van Wagenen also used to represent deGrom’s teammate and co-ace, Noah Syndergaard, who has been popular in the rumor mill this week. Should New York make Syndergaard and his three years of control available, most of the league would likely inquire, though the team understandably seems content to go forward with him. Wilpon didn’t rule out a Syndergaard trade, but he said Friday (via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com) that a deal involving the flamethrowing 26-year-old “would have to be pretty lopsided” in the Mets’ favor.
  • New York already has upward of $138MM going toward next year’s roster, which won’t give the club much room to spend if it plans on staying in the vicinity of last season’s $150MM-plus Opening Day total. A payroll increase would clearly benefit Van Wagenen in his first offseason on the job, though Wilpon wasn’t willing to reveal whether that’s in the Mets’ plans. “Brodie knows what the parameters of what the payroll is and what we’re planning to do,” said Wilpon (per DiComo).
  • The Mets recently parted ways with J.P. Ricciardi, who was a key member of their previous front office. Assistant GM John Ricco was also integral in the Mets’ prior power structure, but his future is now up in the air. Ricco remains in the front office for the time being, according to Wilpon, who stated (via Ackert) he’s “working” and “has a contract,” adding that “[Ricco] and Brodie will have that conversation when they get to it.” It’s worth noting that Ricciardi also had a contract with the Mets, but the deal didn’t prevent his exit. With that in mind, Ricco may not be a lock to stay in the fold.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Mets, Syndergaard, Rangers, Minor, Orioles

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Star right-hander Noah Syndergaard has drawn trade interest this offseason, but if the Mets do deal him, it’s not going to be for a package of prospects, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Rather, because the Mets aim to contend in 2019, they’d need to make a trade that improves their roster both now and in the future, according to Rosenthal. Moving Syndergaard would likely cause significant damage to the Mets’ rotation heading into 2019, though, so they’d almost have to sign a replacement in free agency, Rosenthal notes. To this point, the Mets have been “very engaged in the marketplace,” a representative for a free-agent starter tells Rosenthal.

Syndergaard’s not the only established Mets hurler whose future is in question, per Rosenthal, who adds that all of their starters are generating interest. Syndergaard’s fellow ace, National League Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, isn’t going anywhere, sources tell Rosenthal. The rest of the Mets’ rotation – which consists of Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz and Jason Vargas –  isn’t as impressive, though Wheeler and Matz are appealing. Wheeler, healthy for the first time since 2014, is coming off a terrific season, but he only has a year of control remaining; Matz is an injury-prone lefty who was a mixed bag in 2018, but he’s still just 27 and has three years of control left; Vargas, meanwhile, endured a disastrous 2018, and with a guaranteed $10MM left on his contract, the Mets may be fortunate to find a taker for him. However, as with Syndergaard, the Mets’ goal in giving up any of Wheeler, Matz or Vargas would be to better themselves in the near and long term, Rosenthal writes.

More rumblings from Rosenthal…

  • Even though the Rangers’ rotation is perilously thin, the rebuilding club would likely trade its top starter, left-hander Mike Minor, for the right offer, Rosenthal suggests. Minor’s drawing interest on the heels of his first season in Texas, which signed him to a three-year, $28MM guarantee last December. When he joined the Rangers, Minor was coming off an excellent season as a full-time reliever for the Royals, but he returned to a starting role in 2018 and posted a 4.18 ERA/4.43 FIP with 7.57 K/9 and 2.18 BB/9 over 157 innings (28 starts). Minor has an affordable $19MM left on his contract, though his 10-team no-trade clause could block some prospective suitors from acquiring him.
  • After a drawn-out search, the Orioles finally named a general manager, Mike Elias, whom they hired Friday. Elias is now seeking a manager for the Orioles, and it’s “more likely” he’ll hire an experienced skipper than a neophyte, Rosenthal relays. However, Elias isn’t necessarily aiming to make a high-profile hire, per Rosenthal, who writes that the O’s next manager could be a “caretaker.”

Nathan Eovaldi Drawing Widespread Interest

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Free-agent starter Nathan Eovaldi has drawn considerable interest on the open market, according to the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, who writes that the Brewers, Phillies, Braves, Angels, White Sox, Blue Jays and Giants join the previously reported Red Sox and Padres as early suitors for the right-hander. More teams may join the fray, Cafardo adds.

Although Eovaldi is a two-time Tommy John surgery recipient who only threw 111 regular-season innings in 2018, the soon-to-be 29-year-old still managed to significantly boost his stock. Across 22 appearances (21 starts) divided between Tampa Bay and Boston, Eovaldi pitched to a solid 3.81 ERA/3.60 FIP with 8.19 K/9, 1.62 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent groundball rate. Among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, Eovaldi finished third in both average fastball velocity (97.4 mph) and infield fly percentage (15.7), tied for sixth in BB/9, and 12th in K/BB ratio (5.05). He also yielded a paltry .284 expected weighted on-base average, an even more impressive figure than the .293 real wOBA hitters registered against him.

After posting those strong numbers during the regular season, Eovaldi proved capable of shining on the game’s biggest stage for the Red Sox, who couldn’t have asked for more when they acquired him in July. Eovaldi surrendered just four earned runs in 22 1/3 postseason innings, helping the Red Sox vanquish the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers en route to a World Series title. The success Eovaldi enjoyed in October surely helped his stock heading toward the open market, where MLBTR predicts he’ll land a four-year, $60MM guarantee.

A lucrative payday for Eovaldi this offseason may have been unthinkable at this time last year, when he was still recovering from the 2016 Tommy John surgery he underwent as a Yankee. However, Eovaldi now has a clean bill of health. Dr. Christopher Ahmad, who performed Eovaldi’s most recent surgery, gave his right arm a ringing endorsement Friday, telling Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston: “To me, he’s over Tommy John surgery and he’s over revision Tommy John surgery. And I would consider him in the same category of somebody who has a healthy arm, and whatever worry I have about that player, I have the same or less for Nate.”

Adding to Eovaldi’s appeal, he doesn’t come with a qualifying offer attached, which isn’t the case with either Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel – the only starters MLBTR projects to sign bigger contracts. Of course, Eovaldi’s resume isn’t on the level of theirs. While Corbin and Keuchel have offered superstar-caliber production at times, Eovaldi has generally performed like a mid- to back-end starter. Also a former Dodger and Marlin, Eovaldi owns a 4.16 ERA/3.82 FIP with 6.78 K/9, 2.74 BB/9 and a 46.8 percent grounder rate over 850 innings, and he hasn’t exceeded 125 frames in a season since 2015. There are certainly some red flags with Eovaldi, then, yet it’s still unsurprising that teams are lining up for his services.

MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction Contest

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Back by popular demand, it’s the MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest!  Click here to enter your picks for the destinations for our top 50 free agents.  The deadline for entry is Sunday, November 18th at 11pm central time.  You can edit your picks until then.  Further contest info:

  • This is something we’ve done dating back to 2011, but we took the last few years off due to technical challenges.  Our readers ask me about it regularly.  Then today I saw that our friends at FanGraphs used Google Forms for a simple free agent contest, and I decided to do the same.
  • In the past, we have created a public leaderboard page so you can see who’s winning the contest as players sign with teams.  I will attempt to build something like that this winter.  If it succeeds, we’re going to use entrants’ full names on it.  So, if that concerns you please do not enter the contest.  Entries with inappropriate names will be deleted.
  • We are also collecting email addresses, which I will use to notify winners.  I may also use those email addresses to notify you of next year’s free agent prediction contest.
  • If a player signs between now and the close of the contest, that’s a freebie, but you still need to go in and make the correct pick.
  • After you submit your picks, you’ll receive an email from Google Forms.  In that email, you’ll see a button that allows you to edit your picks.
  • We will announce the winners on MLBTR once all 50 free agents have signed.  We will award $500 to first place, $300 to second place, and $100 to third place.  Winners must respond to an email within one week.
  • Ties in the correct number of picks will be broken by summing up the rankings of the free agents of the correct picks and taking the lower total.  For example: Tim and Steve each get two picks correct.  Tim gets Bryce Harper (#1 ranking) and Adam Ottavino (#20 ranking) for a total of 21 points.  Steve gets Yasmani Grandal (#6) and Charlie Morton (#14) for a total of 20 points.  Steve’s total is lower and he’s ahead of Tim for tiebreaker purposes.

If you have any further questions, ask us in the comment section of this post!  Otherwise, make your picks now!

NL Notes: Braves, Kimbrel, Dodgers, Jansen, Reds

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A few items from the National League…

  • Atlanta’s a speculative landing spot for closer Craig Kimbrel, who starred with the Braves from 2010-14 and is now the most proven reliever available in free agency. However, barring a drop in Kimbrel’s asking price, it’s “highly unlikely” he’ll rejoin the Braves this offseason, Mark Bowman of MLB.com writes. MLBTR predicts the 30-year-old Kimbrel will reel in a whopping $70MM guarantee, which could be too much for an Atlanta team that may not be in position to make a big-money splash this offseason, as general manager Alex Anthopoulos suggested last month. Anthopoulos has made it known the Braves are interested in adding a closer this winter, though, so whether it’s Kimbrel or someone else, it appears the club is primed to bring in some late-game help.
  • Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen announced Friday that he’ll undergo heart surgery Nov. 26, per Chad Thornburg of MLB.com. The procedure comes with a two- to eight-week recovery timeline, meaning Jansen should be fine by spring training. It’ll be the second heart surgery since 2012 for Jansen, who missed time with an irregular heartbeat that season and during both the 2011 and ’18 campaigns. The 31-year-old has been particularly susceptible to an irregular heartbeat at high altitude – the issue cropped up in Colorado in 2012, and he was hospitalized after a game at Coors Field last August. As a result, Jansen sat out a road series against the Rockies in September on doctors’ recommendation.
  • The Reds have hired J.R. House to serve as their third base coach and catching coach, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports. The 39-year-old House will replace Billy Hatcher, who had been the Reds’ third base coach, and ex-catching coach Mike Stefanski, though it’s not yet known if those two will stay in the organization in different roles, per Sheldon. House, a former professional catcher and first basemen, spent the past seven seasons in player development with the Diamondbacks. He’s the third new hire for rookie manager David Bell, who previously tabbed Derek Johnson as the Reds’ pitching coach and Turner Ward as their hitting coach.

Yankees Notes: Gray, A’s, Machado, Relievers, Extensions

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Although the Athletics contacted the Yankees about right-hander Sonny Gray at least a week ago, “there is no present momentum in talks” between the teams, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. A return to Oakland would represent a homecoming of sorts for Gray, a 2011 first-round pick of the A’s who mostly thrived with the club from 2013-17. The A’s dealt Gray to the Yankees in July 2017 for a bounty of prospects, but he has since looked like a poor fit in the Bronx, leading general manager Brian Cashman to concede that “it’s probably best” for the Bombers to move the 29-year-old this winter. Gray’s down to his final season of team control, in which he’ll earn a projected $9.1MM. Even for a low-budget team like Oakland, $9MM-plus for Gray doesn’t look like an unreasonable figure. Gray pitched like a front-end starter away from Yankee Stadium last year, after all, so he could boost an A’s rotation which is clearly in need of help.

More on the Yanks, all of which comes via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com:

  • Infielder Manny Machado infamously told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic last month that being “Johnny Hustle” isn’t his “cup of tea.” Considering he was then on the brink of a much-anticipated, highly lucrative trip to free agency, Machado’s remarks came at an inopportune time. And now that Machado is on the open market – where he still figures to rake in a historic payday – Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner addressed the superstar’s comments this week, calling them “troubling” and noting that the club would need to discuss them with the 26-year-old as part of a serious pursuit. To this point, though, the Yankees and Machado haven’t set up a meeting, Cashman revealed Thursday. The executive added that the Yankees have used past meetings with free agents to “educate people about who we are and where we want to go and get a feel back if there’s an alignment there, if that player can fit in our culture and our New York environment or not. There’s times I’ve walked away refreshingly, feeling strongly about, ’I’m glad he was so candid because this is not going to be a good fit.'”
  • The Yankees are at risk of losing high-profile relievers David Robertson and Zach Britton to free agency, though they have spoken to both hurlers about re-signing, Cashman said. The 33-year-old Robertson, a Rhode Island resident, would like to pitch for a team in the Northeast, according to Cashman.  “Does he want to come back? Yeah, but he said the same thing to me that he said to the public — he’s got to do what is in the best interests of his family,” Cashman said of Robertson, who’s acting as his own agent. “He’s looking for the best deal he can get. He must have already went to agent school; that’s normally the first thing you hear. There must be a playbook.”
  • Free agency and the trade market are likely the primary concerns for the Yankees right now, but they’ll also consider offseason extensions for some of their current players, per Cashman. Three of their top contributors – center fielder Aaron Hicks, shortstop Didi Gregorius and reliever Dellin Betances – are each scheduled to become free agents a year from now, but perhaps the Yankees will prevent one or more of them from reaching the market. “Is it something that’s on the list of things to talk to and walk through and get to? Yes,” Cashman stated in regard to potential extensions for the trio. “I wouldn’t rule anything out. Have we kicked it around in a very small scale way in the offices? Like, it’s now or never? Yeah, we have.”

Heyman’s Latest: Mets, Machado, Red Sox, Dodgers, Marlins

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After the Mets hired Brodie Van Wagenen as their new general manager last month, he declared the team expected to be “in on every free agent” this offseason. Van Wagenen’s comment led some to wonder whether the Mets, who could stand to upgrade the left side of their infield, would pursue Manny Machado. However, considering Machado figures to sign for $300MM-plus and the Mets have never even handed out a contract worth half that much, a marriage between the two always looked like a long shot. It appears to be fully out of the question now, as Jon Heyman of Fancred hears that the Mets have decided they’d rather spread their money around to various areas than splurge on Machado. As far as New York’s position player group goes, Heyman lists catcher, second base and center field as spots the team could spend on this winter. As for infielder Wilmer Flores, a non-tender candidate, Heyman notes that the Mets will “likely” tender him at a projected $4.7MM if they’re unable to trade him.

Here’s more from Heyman:

  • The reigning World Series champion Red Sox may soon lose free-agent right-handers Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel, who finished first and second among their relievers in innings last season. With the futures of Kelly and Kimbrel in question, the bullpen is Boston’s primary focus this offseason, according to Heyman. Given that the 30-year-old Kimbrel is in line to sign one of the richest contracts in the history of relievers this winter, he’ll be harder than Kelly to retain. While the Red Sox do have interest in re-signing Kimbrel, per Heyman, he adds that the team “seems adamant about not wanting to go five years” for the highly accomplished closer. Meanwhile, to no one’s surprise, the Sox also hope to re-up free-agent starter Nathan Eovaldi. The 28-year-old righty had a terrific run in Boston last season after it acquired him from Tampa Bay in July, and he’s now one of the most appealing starters on the open market.
  • The Dodgers, whom Boston defeated in the World Series, are looking to address the bullpen, the catcher position and possibly second base, Heyman relays. One of Los Angeles’ highest-profile free agents is catcher Yasmani Grandal, who rejected a $17.9MM qualifying offer from the Dodgers and, according to Heyman, now appears likely to head elsewhere. If Grandal does walk, the Dodgers may end up replacing him with a short-term option, observes Heyman, who notes that two of their top prospects – Keibert Ruiz and Will Smith – are catchers.
  • The Marlins are hoping to add a left-handed hitter via free agency or the trade market, Heyman writes. No team scored fewer runs in 2018 than the Marlins, in part because they slashed a meager .241/.304/.361 (85 wRC+) against right-handed pitching. As of now, they’re slated to feature a righty-heavy lineup next year, with utilityman Derek Dietrich and light-hitting shortstop JT Riddle the only lefty batters on their projected roster.

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Patrick Corbin?

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Free agent lefty Patrick Corbin is arguably the top hurler on the market this offseason.  The former Diamondback timed his ascension to dominance perfectly last season, posting career bests in strikeout rate (11.07 K/9), HR/9 (0.68), FIP (2.47), xFIP (2.61), ERA (3.15), fWAR (6.3) and games started (33) in a pivotal walk year for the 29-year-old.  If not for the staggering wire-to-wire performance of Mets righty Jacob deGrom, Corbin’s defense-independent pitching marks would have paced the Senior Circuit, besting even the perennial virtuosity of two-time defending Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer of the Nationals.  In a free agent class replete with everything but top-end arms, Corbin has positioned himself squarely at the top: as our own Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Jeff Todd see it, the hurler is the premier available starting pitcher, set perhaps to command a deal in excess of $125MM over multiple seasons.

Signs of caution, however, do mark the landscape. Though Corbin has fewer innings under his belt than most starters his age, the limited output came with a price – a Tommy John surgery following a breakout 2013 campaign knocked out all of the following season, plus half of the next, and a hopeful rebound in 2016 was derailed by shaky command and a dangerous propensity for giving up the gopher ball. Corbin also relies heavily on a wipeout slider that ranked as the league’s very best in 2018: after a lessened reliance on the pitch in the two-year aftermath of the surgery, the lefty has again ramped up its use, throwing it a shocking 41.3% of the time in 2018, the second-highest among all starting pitchers in baseball last year.  The pitch, of course, is renowned for the stress it places on the thrower’s elbow, and has long been circumstantially linked to the UCL tear that precipitates Tommy John.

There’s also the body of work.  Never a top prospect, Corbin seemed, after nearly 750 IP at the major-league level following the 2017 season, to have settled comfortably in a place quite near his long-ago projected role: Baseball America reports in 2010 and 2011 pegged him as a “number 3 or four” and “number four” starter, respectively, and the lefty’s minor league performance did little to discredit that view.  Acquired from the Angels in a 2010 deadline deal that sent Dan Haren to Los Angeles, Corbin was a secondary piece in the return headlined by former top prospect Tyler Skaggs.  The slider-slinging lefty did offer a quality 2013 season, posting an ERA/FIP/xFIP all between 3.40 and 3.50, but the performance coincided with a near all-time offensive low across the league – his park- and league-adjusted xFIP that year, after all, was just eight percent better than league average.

There were more stumbles to follow.  A partial-year renaissance in 2015 was followed, in the middle of the next season, by a demotion to the bullpen; despite a career-high 53% ground-ball rate, Corbin’s walk rate ballooned to near four per nine, and he was too often bit by the long ball.  Heavier slider use ushered in another rebound in 2017, but shades of last year’s dominance were still scarce: at the conclusion of that season, Patrick Corbin had, in 745 innings pitched, vindicated the scouts’ reports, offering up a perfectly harmonious 97 ERA-/97 FIP-, three percent better than the league average.  ZiPS projected to hurler to be slightly better in the 2018 season, pegging him for a 94 ERA-/95 FIP- in the newly-humidor-scarred Chase Field.

So what, then, will teams make of the innings-eater-turned-ace in the new-look pitching environment?  Will heavier bullpen dependence suppress the value of starting pitchers across the board?  Will teams hold his mostly-middling ways against him, dismissing the recent ascension as outlier?  Will the slider-heavy profile give them pause?  Or will they double down, certain they’re acquiring a staff-leading ace far into the next decade?  And, most notably for this piece, which teams seem mostly likely to fall into the category of the latter?

The Yankees, unsurprisingly, may be his top suitor.  Corbin, who was raised outside Syracuse, NY, grew up a Yankee fan: “It would definitely be great to play there,’’ he told Bob Nightengale of the USA Today earlier this year. “I grew up a Yankee fan. My whole family are Yankee fans. My mom, my dad, my grandpa, everybody. Really, every generation of my family has been Yankee fans. Living up in Syracuse, everybody’s a Yankee fan. Not too many Mets fans up there.’’  The Bombers, who recently re-signed C.C. Sabathia for one final year, still face questions in the rotation’s back half, where a disappointing 2018 performance from Sonny Gray has left him squarely on the the block.  The fit between the storied franchise and New York native seems an ideal one, especially in a park that rewards left-handed power like few others – Corbin, for his career, has been death on lefties, striking out nearly 31% of them and allowing just 20 total HR, good for a minuscule 2.54 xFIP against.  The Yanks, who last year failed to eclipse the luxury-tax threshold for the first time in 15 seasons, seem primed and ready to make their periodic splash, but whether or not a free agent hurler is foremost in their efforts remains to be seen.

Next in line may be the Phillies, whose team ownership has made no attempt to hide its fervent pursuit of the market’s top assets, with principal owner John Middleton noting that the club could be “a little bit stupid about it.”  After a systematic payroll reduction over the last few seasons, the Phillies finally re-announced their presence as a major offseason player with last year’s signing of Jake Arrieta, and again seem ready to pounce in the more bountiful class of 2018-’19.  The rotation, which in ’18 had one of the league’s widest ERA-FIP gaps, likely due in large measure to the shoddy left-side defense of Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, and Scott Kingery, is chock-full of controllable arms with significant upside, and posted sterling peripherals as a whole last season.  Still, uncertainty hovers around the burgeoning careers of righties Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez, each of whom turned a second straight season of poor performance on the back of encouraging secondary stats, and Zach Eflin, who was downright dreadful in limited big-league action before 2018.  With the club’s top pitching prospects at least a couple years away, and money to burn across the diamond, the Fightins may elect to prop up an area of strength as they enter a pivotal 2019.

The Braves could also be a major player here, what with the windfall they’ve received from increased attendance at their new Smyrna, GA, home, and question marks all across the rotation.  After Mike Foltynewicz, the organization has little on which it can count next season – Kevin Gausman and Julio Teheran sprinted to the big leagues oozing promise, but have been mostly uneven since, and heralded rookie Sean Newcomb again battled the command issues that had so often plagued him in the minors.  Touki Toussaint was a nice surprise, but he walked nearly seven men per nine in a brief MLB stint last season, and Calgary-born Mike Soroka spent much of the season’s second half on the shelf.  The farm is brimming with starting pitching talent of all types, but none have asserted themselves as MLB-ready for 2019.  There’s been little indication from GM Alex Anthopolous that the club is looking to make a major splash, but the up-and-coming Braves seem as good a fit as any for the 29-year-old Corbin, should the team decide to move in that direction.

The Astros, perhaps set to lose Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency, could also be a factor.  Both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are free-agents-to-be following the 2019 season, Lance McCullers Jr. just underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the ’19 season, and the club’s glut of upper-level starting pitching depth has dwindled in recent years.  With GM Jeff Luhnow announcing that the club will move Collin McHugh back to the rotation, two spots are still in flux.  Luhnow seemed cryptic when asked about a possible increase in the 2019 payroll, but with so many rotation question marks in the years to come, a top-level arm would seem an ideal fit for the 2017 champions.

The Nationals, who’ve seen a once-historic rotation dwindle to just Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and possible non-tender candidate Tanner Roark, plus a series of who-knows and could-bes, also have the money and the need, should the club decide to pivot away from Bryce Harper.  Still, with a whopping $245MM combined owed to Scherzer and Strasburg over the life of their deals, signing another high-priced starter would seem exceedingly unlikely.

Other teams, like the Dodgers, Twins, Giants, and Angels could be in play, to a lesser degree.  Los Angeles has the money, of course, but has been loath to shell it out to a high-priced free agent from outside the organization under GM Andrew Friedman’s watch, and the club is already stocked with quality left-handed arms.  The Twins have stripped their payroll to nearly nothing in recent years, but still have a bevy of intriguing rotation options and numerous holes on the offensive side.  The Giants, of course, had the league’s highest payroll last season, but still owe over $120MM combined to Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto, and don’t figure to be players in the offseason starting pitching market.  The Angels, devoid now of anything resembling a top-end arm after Shohei Ohtani’s Tommy John surgery, could be a background lurker, though the club is still saddled with Albert Pujols’ albatross for another three seasons and may find other needs more urgent.

Which team will be the one to pull the trigger?

Rangers To Sign Jeff Mathis

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Nov. 17, 2:29 PM: Although official details are still unavailable, Jon Heyman of FanCred tweets that the total value will exceed that of Mathis’ previous deal with Arizona, which guaranteed him $4MM from 2017-’18.

Nov. 15, 7:50 PM: The Rangers have agreed to a contract (pending physical) with free agent catcher Jeff Mathis, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’s said to be a two-year deal for the veteran receiver, with financial details not yet known.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way up front: Mathis is already 35 years of age and he’s an exceedingly unproductive hitter. Of course, even when he was 25 the deficiencies with the bat were well known. Over his 14-year MLB career, Mathis has rarely wavered too far from the anemic .198/.258/.306 mean batting line he has produced through 2,694 trips to the plate.

For virtually any other player, that sort of accumulation of statistics would not even be possible, simply because the opportunity would dry up. Mathis, though, is a rare bird. Not only is he still at the top of the class in many of the measurable tools of the trade, but he’s also regarded as a game-management savant.

Mathis just wrapped up a two-year pact with the Diamondbacks that promised him $2MM annually. For their money, the Snakes got 129 total games and just under 1,000 total innings behind the plate (plus three at second base and one on the hill).

During his time in Arizona, Mathis carried a 48 OPS+ that sits just shy of his lifetime 52 OPS+ mark. He also turned in a masterful 2018 pitch-framing effort, scored better than anyone but Tucker Barnhart at smothering balls in the dirt, and graded as average in controlling the running game. With his famed pitcher-whispering abilities mixed in, it’s eminently arguable that Mathis is the game’s best defender behind the dish — which, in fact, was the assessment of Sports Info Solutions (Twitter link).

For the Rangers, this move comes after the club rather surprisingly chose to bid adieu to Robinson Chirinos. The club chose to pay him a $1MM buyout rather than picking up his option for $4.5MM, an outwardly reasonable sum for the 34-year-old. Chirinos has steadily produced league-average-or-better offensive numbers over recent years but is not valued nearly so much for his efforts behind the dish. In particular, Chirinos received quite poor grades for his throwing and framing in 2018.

While Chirinos is reputedly a valued clubhouse leader, he evidently did not impress the team quite as much in squeezing value from the pitching staff. That’ll be the chief duty of Mathis, who’ll presumably see a fair bit of action and take a leading role in guiding a still-largely-undetermined group of hurlers. He could be paired with (and teach the dark arts to) Jose Trevino, utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and/or minor-league signee Jett Bandy, though the Rangers could still add options to the mix.

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