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2019 Competitive Balance Draft Pick Order

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Major League Baseball has set the order for Competitive Balance Rounds A and B of next year’s draft, reports Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. Those rounds, which take place after the completion of the first and second rounds, respectively, are comprised of picks awarded to teams that are considered in the bottom 10 in terms of market size and/or revenue.

As Mayo explains, MLB now utilizes a new approach to determining Competitive Balance order rather than a lottery, as had been done in previous drafts since the Competitive Balance rounds’ inception prior to the 2013 season. The league applied a formula that took into account total revenue and winning percentage among the 14 teams that received Competitive Balance picks. Based on the results of that formula, the Rays, Reds, A’s, Brewers, Twins and Marlins were awarded the six picks in Comp Round A in 2017, with the other eight teams (D-backs, Padres, Rockies, Indians, Royals, Pirates, Orioles, Cardinals) all falling into Comp Round B.

Under the new system, those two groups will simply flip on an annual basis, meaning the six teams that were awarded Comp Round A picks in 2017 comprised the teams selecting in Comp Round B. Likewise, the eight teams that comprised Comp Round B in 2017 swapped to Comp Round A in 2018. Now, of course, we’re back to the starting point, with the formula spitting out new ordering for each group of teams. Notably, the Pirates will pick in both rounds, as they’ve received the No. 37 overall pick as compensation for failing to sign last year’s No. 36 overall pick, Gunnar Hoglund.

According to Mayo, the rounds will play out as follows:

Round A

34. Marlins
35. Rays
36. Reds
37. Pirates (compensation for Hoglund)
38. Athletics
39. Brewers
40. Twins

Round B

71. Royals
72. Orioles
73. Pirates
74. Padres
75. Diamondbacks
76. Rockies
77. Indians
78. Cardinals

It should also be noted that this isn’t yet likely to represent the final draft order. Competitive Balance draft selections are the only picks that are eligible to be traded from one team to another under baseball’s collective bargaining agreement. These picks can only be traded during the regular season, though, and each pick can only be traded one time.

The specific placement of these picks in the overall draft order figures to change as well as draft-pick compensation from qualified offers slightly alters the ordering of the picks both surrounding the Competitive Balance rounds. (We recently broke down the possible impact to teams that could lose qualified free agents and also to those that could sign them.) Generally speaking, though, this serves as a rough guideline for next summer’s draft and helps to provide a clearer picture of which teams will have the largest draft pools.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Indians endured the heartbreak of another early exit from the postseason in 2018, and they’re likely to suffer the mass exodus of nearly a dozen free agents. That, combined with several impending player salary increases, a shortage of top prospects, and the looming return to relevance of some rebuilding AL Central teams, poses some difficult questions about the Tribe’s contention window. They’ll enter the offseason foraging for creative (and budget-conscious) ways to address them.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH: $25MM through 2019 (includes $5MM buyout on 2020 club option)
  • Corey Kluber, SP: $19MM through 2019 (includes $2MM in buyouts on 2020, 2021 club options)
  • Jason Kipnis, 2B/OF: $17MM through 2019 (includes $2.5MM buyout on 2020 club option)
  • Carlos Carrasco, SP: $10,412,500 through 2019 (includes $662.5K buyout on 2020 club option)
  • Yonder Alonso, 1B: $9MM through 2019 (includes $1MM buyout on 2020 vesting/club option)
  • Brad Hand, RP: $14.5MM through 2020 (includes $1MM buyout on 2021 club option)
  • Yan Gomes, C: $9MM through 2019 (includes $2MM in buyouts on 2020, 2021 club options)
  • Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B: $21MM through 2021 (includes $2MM option on 2022 club option)
  • Roberto Perez, C: $6.9MM through 2020 (includes $900K in buyouts on 2020, 2021 club options)
  • Dan Otero, RP: $1.4MM through 2019 (includes $100K buyout on 2020 club option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Cleveland Indians Depth Chart | Cleveland Indians Payroll Outlook]

While the Indians have enjoyed a sustained run of dominance over the rest of the American League Central for the past three seasons, they’ve fallen short of a championship each year, and every time in a fashion more disappointing than the last. Three consecutive losses have bumped them from the playoffs all three times, and they’re now facing yet another club record payroll (north of $145MM) in a market too small in size to support such a figure.

Worse yet, that payroll estimate comes in spite of the very likely departures of several players who’ve been key contributors during the Tribe’s run of success, including Brantley, Allen, Miller and Chisenhall. The subtraction of those contracts from the books are more than negated by gargantuan expected arbitration raises for Bauer and Lindor, in combination with 10 players who are contractually guaranteed raises on their 2018 salaries. Put more simply, Cleveland is set to subtract talent while adding payroll.

It’s not as though there’s significant cavalry on its way from the farm, either. Four of the club’s five top prospects are still playing at Class A or below, and their highest-ranked outfield prospect (their biggest area of need) in the upper minors is Oscar Mercado, who sits at #15 on MLB Pipeline’s Indians prospect rankings. Only #1-ranked Triston McKenzie appears primed to make an impact in 2019, and the Tribe’s rotation already has five locks in the form of Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber.

That’s perhaps a large part of the reason the Tribe is reportedly willing to listen to offers on Kluber and Carrasco this winter, in addition to some other pricey veterans. The logic behind it makes plenty of sense: if the Indians can deal from a strength by trading one of their top starters for a cheap, controllable outfielder who can help now, they’d receive some salary relief while improving their outlook further down the road, and all without greatly diminishing the strength of their 2019 ballclub. After all, McKenzie’s ceiling is nothing to scoff at, and without much divisional competition to worry about (again) in 2019, the club might be less concerned with its regular season starting five than it is with its postseason starting four. And one could certainly argue that there’s no better time to reap a generous return for a premium starting pitcher, given the number of pitching-needy contenders and relative dearth of alternatives on the trade market and in free agency.

Of course, with Kluber being a two-time Cy Young winner and one of the main faces of the franchise, it might be hard for fans to stomach losing him in an effort driven in part by a desire to shed salary. Meanwhile, trading Carrasco for even a player owed the league minimum would save the club less than eight figures next season, so while such a move could still help to fill a hole elsewhere on the roster, it wouldn’t go as far in the way of shedding financial obligations. These factors, along with the immense value each pitcher is expected to deliver on his contract in 2019 (and beyond), make it far from a sure thing that either will end up in a different uniform before Opening Day. Rather, the notion of the Tribe trading one of their top two arms should be seen only as one potential card in their hand as they work to solve a complicated roster puzzle headed into next year.

The biggest gap in that puzzle, as we touched upon earlier, lies in the outfield. Brantley, who’s been a mainstay since his MLB debut in 2009, is set to test free agency for the first time in his career; reports say he’s almost certainly not returning to Cleveland. Cabrera, Davis and Guyer, likewise, are vulnerable to being signed by rival teams at this juncture. Martin, for whom they traded prior to the 2018 non-waiver deadline, is expected to make a full recovery from a life-threatening bacterial infection in time for opening day, but outside of him — assuming he is indeed able to get back to full health — the club’s options are extraordinarily fallible. Kipnis hasn’t had a productive offensive season since 2016. Greg Allen has played below replacement level thus far in 330 career plate appearances. Naquin’s career is full of ups and downs and there’s no telling whether he’ll completely rebound from his recent hip surgery. Former top prospect Bradley Zimmer limped offensively in 2018 and won’t return for quite some time due to a shoulder injury he suffered in Triple-A.

Outside of trading a starting pitcher, the Tribe would appear to have few ways to address their outfield need. They already swung a minor trade with the Pirates that netted them major-leaguer Jordan Luplow, though he’s more of a lottery ticket than an established, reliable piece. One possible avenue would be to cash in prospect capital for a talented corner outfield option; certainly MLB Pipeline’s #84 prospect Nolan Jones could get a conversation started for some solid targets. And with monetary funds largely tapped out as things stand at present, they’re highly unlikely to afford a reliable solution on the free agent market.

Then again, that financial outlook could easily change if the club is able to find a taker for some of their more expensive veterans. Encarnacion and Kipnis, for example, are both on the wrong side of the aging curve. The two combined for just 3.2 fWAR in 2018 but are owed a massive sum of $36.5MM for their services next season. Certainly neither player would be viewed as having any sort of surplus value on his respective salary — quite the contrary — and that’s without even considering the $7.5MM in total buyouts on the pair’s contract options for 2020. Still, either could provide a method of shedding salary if the right team were to show interest. Encarnacion has plenty of pop left in his bat, and could be a fit for a handful of American League clubs. Young OBP machine Yandy Diaz could perhaps step in and fill the DH opening should the parrot fly out of Cleveland. Kipnis, meanwhile, could theoretically be replaced with the addition or promotion of an infielder or outfielder, so there are plenty of options to fill his shoes. Certainly plenty of teams would be interested in bringing a league-average middle infielder into the fold.

Of course, the Tribe’s questions marks are not limited to the outfield. Perhaps an even more pressing issue is the club’s bullpen, which finished in the AL’s bottom three in ERA, FIP and fWAR, and has been ravaged by the free agent departures of Allen, Miller and Perez. Of the group set to return, only Hand finished 2018 with an ERA below 4.00. It’s worth mentioning that Salazar is somewhat of a wild card, but overall the outlook is bleak.

It’s unclear what viable options the club has in the way of improving its relief corps to the level necessary to compete with other powerhouse teams, but the “throw a bunch of spaghetti against the wall and see what sticks” method employed by the club in 2018 was a pronounced failure and hopefully won’t be employed again next season. The in-house group is likely to see some positive regression, of course, but creative methods of bringing in reinforcements are likely to be high on the club’s priority list.

While there are certainly plenty of issues to address for 2019, the long-term outlook brings an entirely different cornucopia of questions. While the Indians have a wide variety of high-end young talent locked up for the near future (Lindor, Ramirez, Clevinger and Hand all come to mind), those players will continue to get significantly more expensive over the next three seasons. During that time, their already-expensive veterans are more likely to decline than they are to repeat their recent performances, and unlike in years past they’ve got very few promising players under team control beyond the next three seasons. The AL Central won’t be a cakewalk forever; teams like the White Sox and Tigers are already past the initial teardown phases of their respective rebuilds and figure to be on the upswing in the coming seasons. All of a sudden, the Tribe is facing some very real longevity concerns, and it’s not unthinkable that they could make some creative moves this offseason as a means of addressing them.

Of course, even if they made next to no major moves from this point through spring training, they’re a contender in every sense of the word. Their rotation remains one of the best in baseball, and they have two of the game’s best young position-player talents in Lindor and Ramirez. The path to a fourth consecutive AL Central Championship doesn’t have much in the way of serious obstructions, so any and all acquisitions the Indians make this winter will simply culminate in slight statistical improvements upon their postseason odds. While they aren’t likely to enter next October as favorites, they’ll have a chance, and as we saw with the 2016 club, sometimes an outside shot can carry a team a long way.

The recently (and unofficially) extended Mike Chernoff has a wide variety of issues to address this offseason, but he’s also got a wide variety of options at his disposal and a relatively low floor as far as overall competitive makeup. There will be some suspense as far as who might stay or go, however, and that very aspect of the club’s offseason outlook means that there will be several interesting storylines to follow. Tribe fans will certainly have an entertaining winter ahead of them in that regard.

Trade Chatter: Segura, Goldschmidt, Astros, Gomes

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After last winter’s deep freeze, many in the game are surely wondering when the action will truly get underway this time around. We’re still awaiting a monster free agent pact, but the first blockbuster trade is now in the books. For the Mariners, sending James Paxton out for a package featuring two near-MLB pitchers was designed to open a new contention window in one or two years, GM Jerry Dipoto acknowledged today in an interview on 710 ESPN. (H/t TJ Cotterill of the Tacoma News Tribune, via Twitter.) That largely fits the prior indications that Dipoto has given, perhaps helping set the stage for the club’s remaining offseason work. Certainly, there could be quite a few more deals for the ever-active Dipoto to explore with that goal in mind. As we recently covered in breaking down the club’s offseason situation, the M’s have several other assets that could make sense as trade chips.

Now that the ice has been broken, here’s the latest trade chatter from around the game:

  • In an interesting side note following tonight’s major swap, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets that the Yankees also sought to discuss Jean Segura in their talks with the Mariners. Segura has now established himself as a quality regular at short and is playing on a reasonably priced contract extension. He’d obviously help the Yanks fill in for the injured Didi Gregorius — which would presumably all but take the club out of the running for free agent star Manny Machado. Obviously, the Segura side of the talks did not progress. Whether the possibility of a deal could be revisited is not clear, but it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see the clubs circle back.
  • While the Astros had interest in Paxton, they weren’t willing to budge on including top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley to get a deal done, Morosi adds on Twitter. It’s rather unsurprising to hear that the Houston organization drew a hard line there, as the 21-year-old has one of the loftiest ceilings of any pre-MLB hurler in baseball and perhaps isn’t far from cracking the majors. Presumably the ’Stros had a different package on offer that was simply deemed inferior to the one that got the deal done. Houston GM Jeff Luhnow will no doubt move on to a series of other potential targets, as rotation improvement remains a clear need.
  • Trade talks involving Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, meanwhile have seemingly yet to get going in earnest. To this point, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets, the Astros and Cardinals “have had the most meaningful discussions” of any organizations in baseball. But that’s just relative to their peers, not an indication that either club is particularly likely (let alone close) to striking a deal for one of the game’s best and steadiest offensive performers. Of course, it’s also still entirely unclear just what the D-Backs will look to do with such a key player. An extension still does not appear to be out of the question, though there have been no hints that one is in the works. Even in a trade scenario, the team will have to decide whether to try to use Goldschmidt as a vehicle to shed salary (by attaching another contract) or recoup talent.
  • As they seek to make some tweaks to an increasingly expensive roster, the Indians are receiving “significant trade interest” in backstop Yan Gomes, Rosenthal tweets. It’ll be interesting to see how the market ends up valuing Gomes, who’s due $7MM in 2019 and then another $2MM in buyouts on successive options (if they aren’t exercised). That seemed a bargain when he was turning in big offensive numbers back in 2013 and 2014, but his multi-year lull left the contract seemingly turned the back end of the contract sour. Now, though, the 31-year-old is coming off of his best showing with the bat in years. In 2018, he slashed .266/.313/.449 and swatted 16 home runs in 435 plate appearances. That said, it’s far from clear whether the bump in productivity was the result of a sustainable improvement. Gomes walked at an anemic 4.8% clip and rode a .336 batting average on balls in play — though he did produce a greater hard-hit rate (38.7%) and average exit velocity (88.9%) than he ever had previously. He also set new personal high-water marks in launch angle and line-drive rate, accomplishing the latter by significantly paring down on the number of balls he put on the ground. Given his strong reputation as a defender, Gomes would seem to be quite an appealing target as a league-average hitter, so teams that find cause to believe in the bat will surely have interest.

Yankees Acquire James Paxton

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The Yankees have officially struck a deal to acquire lefty James Paxton from the Mariners, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link) first reported. Top pitching prospect Justus Sheffield is coming to Seattle in return, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter link). Completing the return are outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams and righty Erik Swanson, per Corey Brock of The Athletic (via Twitter).

This is the first major move of the winter market, bringing a top-shelf starter to a New York club that has long been rumored to be seeking to boost its rotation. Having already inked CC Sabathia earlier in the winter, the Yanks now appear unlikely to pursue more than one additional starter, though they’ll still have ample financial flexibility to go after any available pitchers.

Meanwhile, the M’s have now kicked off a winter in which they’ll attempt to walk a tightrope act of staying at least reasonably competitive while enhancing their roster’s long-term outlook. Paxton just turned 30 earlier this month, but he’s down to two more season of arbitration control, so he was one of the team’s more obvious assets to market. Previously, the club sent out regular catcher Mike Zunino, another player with two seasons to go until free agency.

In adding Paxton, the Yankees aren’t just getting a highly talented pitcher. They’re getting one at an eminently reasonable rate of pay. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz project Paxton to earn $9.0MM this winter; if he turns in a great year, he’ll get a nice raise on that amount, but that would also mean the club would be more than happy to pay it. Ultimately, these salary levels land a far sight shy of Paxton’s open-market value — at least, that is, assuming he’s at full health.

At his best, Paxton is among the game’s most dominant rotation pieces. Aptly dubbed the Big Maple, the Canadian southpaw has struck out 11 batters per nine over the past two seasons while averaging a reasonable 2.4 BB/9. That’s rare air for a starter. His ERA ballooned a bit this year to 3.76, owing to a few extra long balls, but he posted a 2.98 mark in 2017. Plus, ERA estimators were quite enamored of his output in the just-completed campaign (3.24 FIP, 3.02 xFIP, 2.96 SIERA).

Of course, this all comes with a caveat. Paxton has never thrown a full MLB campaign, with his 28 starts in 2018 representing a career high. He also just barely (by a third of a frame) passed the 160 innings-pitched threshold for the first time last year. Health issues remain an ever-present concern and will perhaps dictate the outcome of this swap from the Yankees’ perspective.

The Yankees will hang their hat on the fact that Paxton mostly avoided significant injury issues in 2018. He missed time after being struck by a comebacker, which was obviously just an instance of poor fortune, after previously being sidelined for lower back inflammation. Those sorts of maladies aren’t the real concern, though. Previously, Paxton has missed time with forearm, shoulder, and biceps problems.

The good news is that Paxton has delivered a pristine version of his power arsenal when he has been able to unleash it. He has averaged 95.9 mph on his four-seamer over each of the past two seasons. And his swinging-strike rate is still on the rise, moving up to a personal-best 14.3% in 2018. If he can carry that forward, even if it’s not quite for a full 32-start campaign, the Yankees will likely be quite pleased with this move.

Turning back to the Mariners side, it’s still a bit difficult to know whether this portends quite a few more moves or whether the club will mostly pick around the edges from this point forward. Certainly, the organization has other marketable assets — as well as some under-water contracts that it might look to unload. It was only two weeks ago that we first learned of the Mariners’ somewhat surprising plans to move some key MLB assets this winter. The shape of the final roster remains very much in doubt, though GM Jerry Dipoto acknowledged today that the club is focused on a 2020-2021 window. (H/t TJ Cotterill of the Tacoma News Tribune, via Twitter).

It’s worth noting that, in both this and the Zunino swap, the M’s have brought back players who figure to represent near-term MLB contributors. If things break right, then, the club could rebound quickly. Here, the key asset is Sheffield, a 22-year-old southpaw who originally went to New York along with Clint Frazier in the swap that send Andrew Miller to the Indians. Scouts and prospect hounds alike have long loved Sheffield for his stuff. But questions remain as to whether he’ll every full command the full arsenal sufficiently to reach his ceiling at the game’s highest level.

It’s not as if Sheffield tends to have difficulties finding the zone. He has averaged only 3.4 walks per nine innings over his five minor-league seasons, which is hardly elite but also isn’t a concerning number, standing alone. But an inability to fully dictate the location of your pitches can obviously tell in other ways, particularly against major-league hitters.

Thus far, Sheffield has managed just fine with his explosive three-pitch mix, which is led by a fastball that occasionally edges into the upper-nineties. In 2018, he turned in a 2.48 ERA in 116 games at the Double-A and (mostly) Triple-A level. He also briefly debuted in the bigs; while things didn’t go well in his three relief outings, that hardly means much for the future.

While he’s not nearly so well-known as Sheffield, Swanson is also a near-term possibility for the Mariners’ active roster. He’ll need to take a 40-man spot from the jump, as he’d otherwise be eligible for the Rule 5 draft. The 25-year-old joined Sheffield at Triple-A this year after a dominant stop at the penultimate level of the minors to begin the season.

After arriving at the Yanks’ top affiliate, Swanson worked to a 3.86 ERA over 72 1/3 innings. He was touched for ten long balls, but otherwise impressed with 9.7 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. Prospect watchers tend to view Swanson as a back-of-the-rotation possibility, rather than any kind of frontline starter, but that’d certainly be a welcome outcome for the Mariners.

Thompson-Williams, meanwhile, reached the High-A level last year at 23 years of age. He did turn in an impressive output there, slashing .290/.356/.517 and racking up 17 home runs and 17 steals in 375 plate appearances. That represented a big leap forward for the former fifth-round pick, so it remains to be seen whether he can continue to develop as he reaches the high minors.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Projecting Payrolls: Los Angeles Dodgers

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In the opening piece in this series, we looked at the Philadelphia Phillies, a team almost certain to be a major player in this winter’s free agent market. In addition to being a fun look at a key market participant, that piece also sets forth some key assumptions to be used in this series regarding financial information available to the public.

With Philadelphia in our rear view mirror, we turn our attention to the biggest spender in recent years: the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Team Leadership

Despite being a marquee franchise, the Dodgers found themselves embroiled in a quagmire during much of the last decade, with Frank McCourt’s tumultuous ownership ending with a bankruptcy sale to Guggenheim Partners in 2012. Guggenheim — consisting of Mark Walter, Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten, Peter Guber, Bobby Patton, and Todd Boehly — added Billie Jean King and Ilana Kloss as minority owners in 2018, comprising the current group. As is well known, they have spent aggressively throughout their ownership, fueled in large part by an $8.3 billion, 25-year television rights deal with Time Warner.

After directing a run of success in Tampa Bay, Andrew Friedman joined the Dodgers as President of Baseball Operations on a lucrative five-year, $35 million deal after the 2014 season. Despite that massive contract, this is actually a time of some uncertainty with the front office. Friedman named Farhan Zaidi his general manager shortly after taking over in 2014, but Zaidi left to run the rival Giants earlier this month. It is also worth noting that the Dodgers have yet to guarantee an outside free agent even $50 million during Friedman’s tenure.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both.

As with the Phillies, we’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Dodgers, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership. With the Dodgers, this captures nearly the entirety of the McCourt years and all of Guggenheim’s free spending ways. Here is what the Dodgers have spent in the prior 14 seasons:

The Dodgers payroll story tracks the story of their ownership changes remarkably well. In the mid-2000s, McCourt increased spending to build a winner before corralling expenditures as his divorce from ex-wife Jamie and the effects of purchasing the team with so much debt caught up with him. Then the Guggenheim folks showed up and blew the top off of what most of us thought was the ceiling for spending outside of the Bronx. Importantly, the figures above do not include luxury tax payments, meaning that Dodgers spending was actually notably higher over that span thanks to the taxes that accompanied their lavish spending.

Unlike Philadelphia, the Dodgers were substantial players in the Latin American amateur market before Major League Baseball imposed significant spending restrictions, handing out substantial deals to the likes of Yadier Alvarez, Yusniel Diaz, Omar Estevez, and Erisbel Arruebarrena. In the end, as gaudy as the Major League spending figures were, amateur spending added a significant amount to overall expenditures reflected above, at least during the Guggenheim period of ownership.

Future Liabilities

For a team known for its massive spending habits, the Dodgers have surprisingly little in the way of long-term guarantees, especially when compared to other big spenders in major markets competing for the World Series each year.

Here is a look at their future guarantees with the powder blue highlight indicative of a player option — in the case of Kenley Jansen, this is an opt-out prior to the 2020 season.  As mentioned above, note that the numbers shown on here are cash payments by year, not the salary plus the prorated amount of any bonus. The AAV column captures the player’s luxury tax number.

The Dodgers’ new deal with Clayton Kershaw gives them an ace on a reasonably short-term deal. While the annual financial commitment is high, the Dodgers must have been pleased to keep the term so modest.

Beyond Hill, their salary sheet is loaded with short-term commitments until we hit Maeda. Maeda’s contract is heavily incentive driven. Maeda receives $3 million annually, then receives the following incentives:

  1. $0.15 million for making Opening Day roster
  2. $1 million for each of 15 and 20 starts, then $1.5 million for each of 25, 30, and 32 starts
  3. $0.25 million for each of 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, and 190 innings pitched, then $0.75 million for 200 innings pitched

It is an extraordinarily team-friendly pact, one that has played out handsomely for Los Angeles. From a budgetary standpoint, however, it does present plenty of uncertainty.

At the bottom of the chart, we see two lines with hefty numbers but no tax component. First, we see the remaining half of the $48 million owed to Scott Kazmir from his three-year deal covering the 2016-18 seasons. Instead of receiving $16 million per year or something close to it, Kazmir received $8 million annually for six years. As such, he will receive his $8 million annual payouts in 2019-21, but those cash receipts won’t count against the Dodgers’ luxury tax figure. Cuban pitcher Yaisel Sierra obtained a substantial guarantee from the Dodgers, but he is yet to pass Double-A and didn’t record an inning in affiliated ball in 2018. Because L.A. removed him from their 40-man roster (under a rule that has now been amended), his significant cash guarantees do not count against the luxury tax figure for the Dodgers either.

Moving to arbitration, the Dodgers feature a pair of massive paydays for pending free agents in Yasiel Puig and Alex Wood. On the other hand, they appear to have “lucked” into artificially deflated arbitration pay rates for shortstop Corey Seager due to a poorly timed injury in his platform year. Here are the arbitration statuses (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):

The Dodgers have a number of key contributions controlled via arbitration, but as is the case with most teams, there are some players here who stand a good chance of being non-tendered. From this viewpoint, it looks like Koehler, Garcia, and Rosscup will likely get the boot. Regardless of what happens with that trio, only a couple of million dollars in savings are there to be found.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

This is where things get interesting. Really interesting. Last week, the Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times got hold of a document prepared by the Dodgers before the 2017 postseason for potential investors indicating that the club intended to stay below the luxury tax threshold each year from 2019-22. This would be a striking shift from the free-spending club. The document pegged future payrolls roughly $5 million south of the luxury tax threshold in each season once player benefits are factored in, as they are for luxury tax purposes, projecting payroll at $185 million in 2019 and 2020, $191 million in 2021, and $196 million in 2022.

Will such a spending restriction come to fruition? Your guess is as good as mine. It’s worth stressing that the document was prepared before the 2017 postseason and that Shaikin cited a team official as saying that he would be “shocked” if the payroll stayed below $200 million in 2019. The team’s plans might have changed in the last 13 months, especially after back-to-back World Series losses. But one significant data point out there regarding Dodgers spending in 2019 suggests that the 2018 payroll will be far more predictive of spending in 2019 and beyond than were the payrolls from 2013-17.

Are the Dodgers a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

Simply put, this depends on how you feel about the two preceding paragraphs. If the Dodgers haven’t altered their plans since that document was prepared, it’s difficult to see them making a serious push for either player. If the Dodgers were merely posturing with the leaked document or setting forth an aspirational threshold that they don’t actually expect to hit, Harper or Machado is surely in play as the franchise continues to be flush with cash as they chase a World Series title that has proved elusive. (Those same leaked projections also predicted significant revenue increases.)

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

The standard disclaimer: ownership and management knows the actual budget whereas we’re focusing on historical data and other relevant factors to project future spending in the immediate and more distant years to come.

Whereas the Phillies will clearly spend and spend big, the Dodgers enter this offseason as a wild card. They have enough talent on the Major League roster and in the upper levels on the farm to expect another excellent season in 2019 without marquee additions this winter. They lack an obvious hole — provided, at least, that the Dodgers believe in Matt Kemp’s 2018 resurgence. Of course, even if they don’t buy into Kemp repeating his surprising success, Alex Verdugo is likely ready to jump to the big club to take his job.

If the Dodgers are serious about capping their spending south of the tax line, they won’t make a big move. Even removing Koehler, Garcia, and Rosscup, the Dodgers are projected to spend $196.5 million including the hits for Kazmir, Sierra, and Toscano. Removing that trio, they are still at $184.3 million. There just isn’t enough payroll space to make a splash. If, on the other hand, the Dodgers get serious about Harper, they could create enough financial wiggle room to sign him by upping payroll by a few million dollars, shipping out Puig, and trading one of their lefty starters: Wood, Rich Hill, or Hyun-Jin Ryu. Friedman would likely be able to find a market for his moderate-sized contracts should he elect to go that route, though Ryu would have to approve any deal before June 15th of 2019 since he accepted a qualifying offer and is therefore treated like a signing free agent.

While it seems crazy to think that they’ll actually hold tight to their purse strings, the presence of impact talent on the farm and a strong Major League roster lends credence to the idea that L.A. could roll into 2019 with their core largely intact from 2018, allowing Machado to leave in free agency after a mercenary visit while passing on the chance to bring Harper back to the Southwest. Crazier things have happened.

We’ll find out if I’m a chump for believing this in the coming weeks.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $195 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: -$1.5 million

Rangers To Sign Jeff Mathis

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NOVEMBER 19: Mathis will receive a $6.25MM guarantee, per Rosenthal (via Twitter). He’ll get $3.25MM in 2019 and $3MM in 2020, Jon Heyman of Fancred adds on Twitter.

NOVEMBER 15: The Rangers have agreed to a contract (pending physical) with free agent catcher Jeff Mathis, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’s said to be a two-year deal for the veteran receiver, with financial details not yet known.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way up front: Mathis is already 35 years of age and he’s an exceedingly unproductive hitter. Of course, even when he was 25 the deficiencies with the bat were well known. Over his 14-year MLB career, Mathis has rarely wavered too far from the anemic .198/.258/.306 mean batting line he has produced through 2,694 trips to the plate.

For virtually any other player, that sort of accumulation of statistics would not even be possible, simply because the opportunity would dry up. Mathis, though, is a rare bird. Not only is he still at the top of the class in many of the measurable tools of the trade, but he’s also regarded as a game-management savant.

Mathis just wrapped up a two-year pact with the Diamondbacks that promised him $2MM annually. For their money, the Snakes got 129 total games and just under 1,000 total innings behind the plate (plus three at second base and one on the hill).

During his time in Arizona, Mathis carried a 48 OPS+ that sits just shy of his lifetime 52 OPS+ mark. He also turned in a masterful 2018 pitch-framing effort, scored better than anyone but Tucker Barnhart at smothering balls in the dirt, and graded as average in controlling the running game. With his famed pitcher-whispering abilities mixed in, it’s eminently arguable that Mathis is the game’s best defender behind the dish — which, in fact, was the assessment of Sports Info Solutions (Twitter link).

For the Rangers, this move comes after the club rather surprisingly chose to bid adieu to Robinson Chirinos. The club chose to pay him a $1MM buyout rather than picking up his option for $4.5MM, an outwardly reasonable sum for the 34-year-old. Chirinos has steadily produced league-average-or-better offensive numbers over recent years but is not valued nearly so much for his efforts behind the dish. In particular, Chirinos received quite poor grades for his throwing and framing in 2018.

While Chirinos is reputedly a valued clubhouse leader, he evidently did not impress the team quite as much in squeezing value from the pitching staff. That’ll be the chief duty of Mathis, who’ll presumably see a fair bit of action and take a leading role in guiding a still-largely-undetermined group of hurlers. He could be paired with (and teach the dark arts to) Jose Trevino, utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and/or minor-league signee Jett Bandy, though the Rangers could still add options to the mix.

Korea’s KIA Tigers Sign Jacob Turner, Jeremy Hazelbaker

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8:02pm: The club has announced the signing of Turner as well as that of outfielder Jeremy Hazelbaker (via Yonhap News; again, as conveyed by Kurtz). Turner receives a $1MM salary ($300K via signing bonus), while Hazelbaker will take home $700K ($200K signing bonus).

The 31-year-old Hazelbaker has impressive MLB numbers in a small sample. He has also at times posted compelling numbers in the upper minors, though 2018 was not his finest effort. While bouncing between three organizations, Hazelbaker ended the most recent campaign with a .204/.298/.385 slash over 356 plate appearances.

7:24pm: Veteran righty Jacob Turner has reportedly agreed to a deal with the Korea Baseball Organization’s KIA Tigers, per Naver Sports (Korean language link; h/t Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net, on Twitter). Financial terms are not known.

Turner, who is still just 27 years of age, was once one of the brightest pitching prospects in baseball. While he raced to the big leagues in his second professional season at twenty years of age, Turner has never yet been able to find sustained success.

In recent seasons, Turner has settled in as a journeyman depth asset. He had brief stints with the Marlins and Tigers in 2018, revisiting the two organizations with which he began his career. He has also appeared briefly with the Nationals, Cubs, and White Sox.

All told, Turner owns only a 5.37 ERA in his 369 MLB frames, with 5.8 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 along with a 46.5% groundball rate. That said, Turner is still bringing 94+ mph heat on his sinker. With youth still on his side, a return stateside can’t be ruled out if he’s able to find something in the KBO.

Brewers Finalize Coaching Staff

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The Brewers announced today that they’ve promoted Chris Hook from pitching coordinator to pitching coach, hired Steve Karsay away from the Indians organization to serve as the new bullpen coach, and hired Scott Barringer away from the Astros to serve as the new head athletic trainer. Milwaukee also formally announced the previously reported hiring of Andy Haines as hitting coach and announced that Jason Lane would reprise his role as assistant hitting coach.

Hook has been with the organization for more than a decade, primarily working as a pitching coach at the minor league level before spending the 2018 season as the organization’s pitching coordinator. The 50-year-old had an 11-year professional playing career, including 65 2/3 innings with the Giants in 1995-96. He’ll be plenty familiar with a number of the team’s homegrown arms, having worked with them along the way in their journey to the Majors.

“I think when you know players and how they think, you can move them quicker,” said Hook of that benefit (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy). “That’s the way I feel. Even though I don’t know all of these pitchers, I know a good bit of them, and I feel like they trust me. If we trust each other, you can do good things with people.”

The 46-year-old Karsay was a pitching coach in the Indians’ system for the past seven years, including a 2016-18 run as the pitching coach in Triple-A Columbus, where he worked with promising young arms like Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber, among others. Karsay collected 41 saves and posted a 4.01 ERA through 603 1/3 innings as a Major Leaguer from 1993-2006.

Barringer creates yet another opening the Astros need to fill after previous losing bullpen coach Doug White, hitting coach Dave Hudgens and assistant hitting coach Jeff Albert to other organizations (to say nothing of assistant GM Mike Elias heading to Baltimore as the new Orioles general manager). Barringer was the Astros’ assistant athletic trainer from 2017-18 and the organization’s minor league medical coordinator in 2016. Prior to that, he as a minor league athletic trainer with the Cubs and Diamondbacks for a combined five seasons.

MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For Top 10 Free Agents

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MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed last night.  6,845 people entered the contest.  Here’s where our readers think each of the top 10 free agents is going.

1.  Bryce Harper – Phillies (34.0%), Dodgers (13.1%), Nationals (10.8%), Giants (9.8%), Cubs (8.5%), Cardinals (7.9%), White Sox (6.0%), Yankees (4.2%), Braves (1.4%), Astros (1.4%), Angels (1.1%)

2.  Manny Machado – Phillies (45.8%), Yankees (36.5%), White Sox (5.0%), Dodgers (4.0%), Cardinals (1.9%), Mets (1.5%), Cubs (1.3%)

3.  Patrick Corbin – Yankees (74.8%), Phillies (3.1%), Astros (3.0%), Brewers (2.5%), Angels (2.4%), Braves (2.1%), Cardinals (1.4%), Nationals (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.4%), Cubs (1.2%), Giants (1.1%)

4.  Dallas Keuchel – Astros (16.4%), Angels (13.8%), Nationals (13.5%), Brewers (9.9%), Yankees (8.2%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (6.0%), Cardinals (4.1%), Reds (3.1%), Dodgers (2.1%), Cubs (2.1%), Giants (2.0%), Padres (1.9%), Rangers (1.5%), White Sox (1.4%), Twins (1.2%), Mariners (1.2%), Athletics (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%)

5.  Craig Kimbrel – Braves (28.8%), Red Sox (25.4%), Cardinals (18.1%), Phillies (8.4%), Cubs (3.6%), Nationals (3.1%), Mets (2.6%), Astros (2.2%), Dodgers (1.5%), Angels (1.2%), Indians (1.2%)

6.  Yasmani Grandal – Nationals (21.6%), Astros (15.3%), Dodgers (14.4%), Mets (11.3%), Braves (7.8%), Angels (3.4%), Brewers (3.0%), Phillies (2.7%), Mariners (2.6%), Rockies (2.5%), Red Sox (2.5%), Athletics (1.5%), Rangers (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.3%)

7.  Nathan Eovaldi – Red Sox (51.5%), Brewers (5.6%), Astros (4.3%), Yankees (4.0%), Angels (3.6%), Padres (3.2%), Phillies (3.0%), Braves (2.8%), Dodgers (2.4%), Reds (2.3%), Nationals (2.1%), Cubs (2.0%), Giants (2.0%), Cardinals (1.6%), White Sox (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Twins (1.1%), Athletics (1.0%)

8.  A.J. Pollock – Giants (22.9%), Indians (9.2%), Diamondbacks (9.0%), White Sox (6.7%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (5.7%), Mets (5.4%), Cardinals (5.0%), Nationals (4.6%), Cubs (3.4%), Rockies (3.4%), Mariners (2.5%), Athletics (1.7%), Dodgers (1.6%), Angels (1.6%), Astros (1.5%), Padres (1.5%), Blue Jays (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Brewers (1.1%)

9.  J.A. Happ – Yankees (30.9%), Blue Jays (9.2%), Angels (8.2%), Brewers (6.5%), Phillies (4.7%), Astros (4.4%), Nationals (3.7%), Twins (3.1%), Athletics (3.1%), Braves (2.6%), Cubs (2.5%), White Sox (2.4%), Cardinals (2.3%), Reds (2.2%), Giants (1.7%), Mariners (1.7%), Dodgers (1.5%), Padres (1.2%), Diamondbacks (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%), Rangers (1.0%), Indians (1.0%)

10.  Michael Brantley – Braves (30.8%), Indians (10.1%), Giants (9.5%), Phillies (4.9%), Cardinals (4.5%), White Sox (4.2%), Nationals (3.6%), Cubs (3.0%), Mariners (2.9%), Astros (2.8%), Diamondbacks (2.6%), Rockies (2.4%), Athletics (2.3%), Mets (2.3%), Blue Jays (1.9%), Angels (1.4%), Twins (1.4%), Rangers (1.2%), Padres (1.1%), Rays (1.0%), Dodgers (1.0%)

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/19/18

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Here are Monday’s minor moves from around the game…

  • The Cardinals announced a slate of minor league signings, including right-hander Mike Hauschild, left-hander Hunter Cervenka, catcher Joe Hudson, catcher Jose Godoy and first baseman/outfielder Rangel Ravelo. Each received an invitation to Major League Spring Training. St. Louis also announced previously reported Spring Training invites for Tommy Layne and Williams Perez, as well as minor league deals without Spring Training invites for righties Harold Arauz and Ramon Santos. Hauschild, 29 in January, has been hit hard in 16 1/3 MLB innings but has a career 4.02 ERA with 7.9 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 in 437 Triple-A innings (all as a starter). Cervenka posted a 3.53 ERA in 43 1/3 innings between the Braves and Marlins back in 2016 but showed serious control problems along the way and has scarcely pitched in the Majors since. Hudson,27, made a brief big league debut with the Angels in September after a quality showing between their Double-A and Triple-A affiliates. The 24-year-old Godoy and 26-year-old Ravelo are returning to the Cardinals organization. Godoy showed some solid OBP skills in High-A, while Ravelo raked at a .308/.392/.487 pace in 399 PAs with Memphis in his first season with the organization.
  • The Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced that they’ve signed left-hander Kyle Regnault for the 2019 season (link via the Japan Times). Soon to turn 30, Regnault spent his first three professional seasons pitching in indy ball before joining the Mets in 2015. All of his work with affiliated clubs has come in the Mets’ system, and Regnault has a 4.10 ERA with a 130-to-47 K/BB ratio in 109 2/3 innings of Triple-A work. In his first season overseas, Regnault will secure a $400K base salary with the opportunity to earn more via incentives, as well as a $125K signing bonus (hat tip to Yakyudb.com). For a lefty that was on the indy circuit just four years ago, that’s a nice chunk of guaranteed money to bring home, and continued success in NPB would obviously lead to greater earning power.

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