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Mitch Garver’s Unusual Platform Season

By Nick Deeds | October 8, 2023 at 11:07pm CDT

The upcoming free agent class has long looked like it would be much heavier on pitching than hitting, and that situation only became more extreme as players at or near the top of the class like Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, and Ian Happ signed extensions prior to the 2023 campaign. Headed into the season, it looked as if the only surefire impact position players available would be two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani and glove-first third baseman Matt Chapman, particularly when slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernandez struggled badly to open the year. One name that didn’t receive much attention prior to his platform season was Mitch Garver, the Rangers catcher who had appeared in just 37.8% of his teams’ games since the start of the 2020 season due to injuries.

Texas defied preseason expectations to lead the AL West throughout the entire first half, lost eight consecutive games in late August to fall into a three-way tie with the Mariners and Astros in the win column, then ultimately missed the AL West crown after posting a 90-72 record identical to that of Houston’s division champs. Despite all of that uncertainty, Garver has been a stabilizing presence when in the club’s lineup. The 32-year-old slashed an impressive .270/.370/.500 across 344 trips to the plate with the Rangers this season while posting his lowest strikeout rate (23.8%) since 2019 and a career-best mark for walk rate (12.8%).

To put those numbers into perspective, Garver’s 138 wRC+ this year is tied with Brandon Belt and Ryan Jeffers for the 15th-best mark in the majors among players with at least 300 plate appearances this season. This puts Garver ahead of the likes of Cody Bellinger, Mike Trout, and Luis Arraez, and just a few points players like Kyle Tucker and Bryce Harper. Making Garver’s offensive capabilities more enticing is his ability to play catcher. Among all catchers with at least 150 plate appearances in 2023, Garver ranks second in on-base percentage, third in slugging percentage, third in walk rate, and he is tied with Jeffers for second in wRC+ (behind only Tom Murphy’s 47-game season with the Mariners).

Given the weak offensive free agent class, Garver’s prowess with the bat, and his ability to play behind the plate, one might assume that the veteran is on his way to a top-of-the-market payday this offseason. However, Garver’s situation isn’t that simple. Beyond the fact that he’ll play the 2024 campaign at age-33, there’s also the concern of his lengthy injury history. Garver missed six weeks with a sprained knee earlier this season, and in recent years has also missed time due to forearm, groin, back, intercostal, and ankle issues. Between those injuries and his role as a catcher requiring more days off than most everyday players, Garver has played just 209 games the past three seasons despite being a clear everyday talent when healthy.

Upon his return from the injured list in June, the Rangers helped Garver stay on the field by utilizing him primarily as a designated hitter. Though he hit well in the role, he was limited to just 25 games behind the plate over the season’s final four months, which will surely raise questions for potential suitors regarding Garver’s ability to catch regularly going forward.

As a DH, Garver would still have value, though it would be significantly reduced. Belt and J.D. Martinez are two examples of defensively-limited sluggers in their mid-thirties who posted similar numbers to Garver in 2023, and both ended up signing one-year deals this past offseason. That’s not to say Garver will necessarily be limited to similarly short-term offers, though it’s hard to imagine a player of his age and injury history approaching the much more significant contract (five years, $87.5MM) commanded by Willson Contreras last year, despite Contreras being a fellow catcher with relatively comparable offensive numbers in recent years.

That seems particularly true given that Garver seems to best fit a team with another reliable catching option, so Garver could have a clear path to DH playing time and face less pressure to regularly suit up behind the plate. Of course, the Rangers have such an arrangement, with Jonah Heim as the club’s everyday catcher and plenty of DH starts available for Garver. The Cubs and Padres are among other teams who could theoretically provide Garver with occasional time behind the plate next year alongside regular backstops Yan Gomes and Luis Campusano while allowing him to DH the majority of the time, which would seem to be the best approach in order to maximize both Garver’s talents and time on the field.

Quick Hits: Lovullo, Votto, Carter, Lopez

By Mark Polishuk | October 8, 2023 at 10:46pm CDT

Torey Lovullo received a one-year contract extension back in June, and it looks like a longer-term deal might soon be in the works for the Diamondbacks manager. GM Mike Hazen told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert that when Lovullo’s extension was being negotiated over the summer, he told the skipper “we got to get through the rest of the season. And I said if good things happen and we get to the playoffs and we get where we need to go, that he and I will have another conversation.”

Needless to say, plenty of “good things” have indeed taken place. The D’Backs reached the playoffs, upset the NL Central-winning Brewers, and are two wins away from upsetting the Dodgers and reaching the NLCS for the third time in franchise history. Lovullo and Hazen both joined the organization prior to the 2017 season, and with Hazen’s new deal keeping him in Arizona through at least the 2028 campaign, it makes sense that Lovullo would also be getting some extra security. With the D’Backs going through some struggles prior to 2023, Lovullo had been kept on something of a short leash, as his previous two contracts had been a one-year deal with a club option (that was exercised), and then the one-year extension from June that has him locked up through the 2024 season.

Athletics Outright Four Players To Triple-A

By Mark Polishuk | October 8, 2023 at 9:47pm CDT

TODAY: Neal and Rios each elected free agency rather than accept the outright assignment, as per MILB.com’s official transactions page.

OCTOBER 4: The A’s cleared some space off their 40-man roster, announcing today that right-handers Austin Pruitt, Zach Neal, and Yacksel Rios, and left-hander Richard Lovelady were all outrighted to Triple-A after clearing waivers. There hadn’t been any public knowledge that the quartet had been designated for assignment, yet all four passed through the waiver wire and (for now) will remain in Oakland’s organization.

Pruitt, Neal, Rios have each have the option of electing free agency rather than accepting the assignment to Triple-A, since they’ve previously been outrighted during their careers. Pruitt and Rios are both eligible for salary arbitration this winter and will probably be non-tendered, so they’re likely to just hit the open market now rather than wait for an official release.

Neal signed a minor league contract with the A’s in April, and posted a 6.67 ERA over 27 innings at the big league level. This marked Neal’s first MLB action since he pitched with the Dodgers in 2018, as Neal had in the interim pitched three seasons in Japan and then with the Rockies’ Triple-A club in 2022 without receiving a call up to Colorado’s active roster.

Pruitt, Rios, and Lovelady all finished the season on the injured list. Pruitt had seen the most action (48 1/3 innings in 38 appearances) before a right forearm strain ultimately ended his season on August 17. It doesn’t appear as though Pruitt’s injury is a long-term issue, as he had started a throwing program and had advanced to throwing live batting practices in September.

That’s some good news for a pitcher who has already had one major injury setback in his career, as Pruitt missed all of the 2020 season and half of the 2021 season recovering from a hairline fracture in his right elbow. Pruitt posted a 4.83 ERA over 207 MLB innings with the Rays, Astros, and Marlins from 2017-21 before catching on with the A’s on minor league deals in each of the last two seasons. Pruitt had a 4.23 ERA in 55 1/3 frames for Oakland in 2022 and then a 2.98 ERA this past season, giving him some solid bottom-line results even if his advanced metrics (4.32 SIERA in 2022-23) indicated that he benefited from some good fortune.

The Athletics acquired Rios in a June trade with the Braves, and after the righty’s contract was selected from Triple-A, he made only three appearances before heading to the 15-day (and then shortly thereafter the 60-day) injured list. Rios has Raynaud’s Syndrome, and was feeling numbness in two fingers caused by a reduction in blood flow to his hands. A surgery in July removed an axillary branch aneurysm from Rios’ shoulder, which should help him ultimately heal up even if it meant the end of his 2023 season.

Rios is a veteran of six Major League seasons, with a 6.32 ERA over 98 1/3 career innings with five different teams. He didn’t pitch in the majors in 2022 while playing in the White Sox organization, and inked a minors deal with Atlanta last winter.

Lovelady also came to the A’s from the Braves, as Oakland selected him off waivers in April. Lovelady had a 4.63 ERA in 23 1/3 relief innings for the Athletics before being shut down after suffering a pronator strain in his throwing forearm in July. This new injury comes in the wake of a 2021 Tommy John surgery that caused Lovelady to miss the entire 2022 season while rehabbing. The southpaw had a 5.62 ERA in 41 2/3 innings over parts of the 2019-21 seasons with the Royals, and Kansas City traded him to the Braves a couple of weeks before Oakland’s waiver claim.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | October 8, 2023 at 9:28pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat

Rays Notes: Glasnow, Margot, Ohtani, Caminero

By Mark Polishuk | October 8, 2023 at 6:27pm CDT

Every Rays offseason inevitably leads to trade rumors about their higher-salaried players, whether it’s players getting increasingly expensive through their arbitration years or players entering more expensive years of their current contracts. The same should be true this winter, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot “seem likely to be in trade discussions” as the Rays try both manage their budget and maintain a competitive roster.

It isn’t a shock to see either player potentially shopped, especially since Tampa reportedly offered Margot to other teams as recently as the trade deadline. Margot also drew some trade buzz during the 2021-22 offseason since 2022 was his final year of salary arbitration, but the Rays not only avoided an arb hearing by agreeing to a salary with Margot for 2022, but they also inked him to a two-year, $19MM extension with a $12MM club option for 2025.

Glasnow’s own extension with the Rays only seemed to create more trade speculation, rather than security about his future in St. Petersburg. The right-hander signed his two-year, $30.35MM extension in August 2022, just over a year after the right-hander underwent a Tommy John surgery that cost him almost the entire 2022 season. The deal broke down as a $5.35MM salary in 2023 (essentially what Glasnow would’ve earned anyway via arbitration salary) and then a whopping $25MM for 2024.

Essentially since the moment that deal was announced, many have expected that the Rays would look to trade Glasnow before that $25MM bill came due. That dollar figure might not scare off many teams as a one-year splurge, given how Glasnow returned to mostly good health and delivered a strong season. An oblique strain cost Glasnow the first two months of the 2023 campaign, but he posted a 3.53 ERA, 51.2% grounder rate, and an elite 33.4% strikeout rate over 120 innings.

Of course, the Rays themselves might view $25MM as a good investment for a top-of-the-rotation arm, especially given the other injury problems in Tampa Bay’s rotation. Glasnow and Zach Eflin project as the Rays’ top two pitchers, with Taj Bradley penciled into the rotation for at least the start of the season, Shane Baz returning from Tommy John surgery, Drew Rasmussen (elbow brace surgery) and Jeffrey Springs (TJ surgery) both expected back at midseason, and Shane McClanahan very likely missing the year altogether due to yet another TJ procedure. Given how all these injuries hampered the Rays this year, Tampa might feel comfortable in just keeping Glasnow and then getting draft compensation back next winter via the qualifying offer, or perhaps even a midseason trade if the Rays are out of the race.

If Glasnow is retained and the Rays looked to trim payroll elsewhere, moving Margot seems like a natural place to start, as he is owed $12MM in 2024 ($10MM salary, $2MM buyout of his 2025 option). Margot generally been a slightly below-average hitter during his eight MLB seasons, with his .264/.310/.376 slash line over 336 plate appearances in 2023 basically matching his career numbers. Margot’s speed and defense have helped his value beyond the middling offense, though the public metrics indicated a dropoff in his center field glovework in 2023, even if his right field numbers were still solid. Margot’s playing time has also been limited by some injuries over the last two years, as well as the Rays’ natural penchant for outfield platoons.

Perhaps especially if Tampa Bay feels Margot has lost a step or two defensively, he might be an expendable piece of a crowded Rays outfield. Josh Lowe and Jose Siri could take over the center field platoon, and prospects like Kameron Misner or Chandler Simpson might also be nearing their big league debuts. Margot’s trade market might be somewhat limited by his 2023 performance, though with a thin free agent market for position players, any outfield help might get some extra interest this particular winter.

Turning from possible Rays trades to some moves that didn’t happen, Tampa Bay was known to have interest in Shohei Ohtani this past summer, even though it seemed like the Angels had little to no interest in actually dealing the two-way star. That didn’t stop several teams from floating offers, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that Tampa offered Junior Caminero and two other top-10 prospects in exchange for the final two months of Ohtani’s 2023 season.

It would’ve been a big price for a rental player, yet not out of line for a player of Ohtani’s stature and unique all-around ability. Of course, no trade happened, and the Rays probably don’t have many regrets considering how Ohtani’s partial UCL tear prematurely ended his pitching season in August, and an oblique strain then ended his season altogether a couple of weeks later.

Cardinals Interested In Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray

By Mark Polishuk | October 8, 2023 at 4:34pm CDT

Adding as many as three starting pitchers is a stated offseason goal for Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, and it isn’t surprising that the club is already plotting out some notable free agent pursuits. While the Cards will cast a wide berth across the free agent pitching market, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray are two pitchers in particular “the Cardinals have identified as good fits and plan to approach to see if the feeling is mutual.”

In something of a pitching-heavy free agent class, Nola (30 years old) and Gray (34 next month) are two of the top names available. Both will be entering free agency for the first time due to contract extensions signed earlier in this careers, and since both pitchers will undoubtedly receive and reject qualifying offers, the Cardinals would have to give up $500K in international bonus money and their second-highest pick in the 2024 draft as compensation for a signing.

St. Louis has traditionally been somewhat modest in its dips into the open market, as Matt Holliday’s seven-year, $120MM deal from the 2009-10 offseason remains the biggest contract the Cardinals have ever given to a free agent player. In terms of pitching contracts, the Cards gave Mike Leake five years/$80MM during the 2015-16 offseason but that deal didn’t work out, to the point that St. Louis traded Leake before the contract was even two years old. More recently, the Cardinals signed Steven Matz for four years and $44MM two winters ago, though Matz’s performance has been inconsistent and he has battled some injury problems.

With rotation help such a glaring need, however, the Cardinals might have no choice but to test free agency for the pitchers they need, particularly front-of-the-rotation types. Both Gray and Nola had pretty comparable overall numbers and Nola actually had the better SIERA (3.75 to 3.95) of the two pitchers, though Gray ended up with a 2.79 ERA to Nola’s 4.46 ERA — perhaps underlining the difference between the Twins’ defense and the Phillies’ much weaker defense.

Goold noted that the Cardinals are among the many teams who have scouted Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and that the team could explore a reunion with Jordan Montgomery after St. Louis dealt Montgomery to the Rangers at the trade deadline. Looking at the market as a whole, if the Cards are indeed leaning towards Gray and Nola as their top choices, that gives some hint as to the Cardinals’ spending range.

Gray and Nola will each command healthy contracts, yet not in the stratosphere of a Shohei Ohtani (who won’t even pitch in 2024 anyway due to Tommy John surgery) or perhaps even Yamamoto, whose contract might approach $200MM because he is only 25 years old. Montgomery and Blake Snell are two more of the top starters available, though it is perhaps noteworthy that both are represented by the Boras Corporation, whereas Gray is repped by Bo McKinnis and Nola by Paragon. While the Cardinals have rostered and acquired several Scott Boras clients over the years, Boras’ penchant for encouraging clients to wait until deeper into the offseason to sign might not be ideal for a St. Louis team that would probably prefer to get its top-end pitching acquisitions out of the way sooner rather than later.

Managerial Notes: Ross, Showalter, Venable, Jay

By Nick Deeds | October 8, 2023 at 1:52pm CDT

The Cubs had a rollercoaster season in 2023. The club entered the campaign with a projected win total of just 76.5 according to Fangraphs and fell to ten games below .500 by early June, prompting speculation that the club would deal Marcus Stroman in Cody Bellinger in what seemed sure to go down as the third straight rebuilding year for Chicago. The team turned things around, however, rattling off a 27-17 record from mid June to the end of July and prompting the club to add Jeimer Candelario rather than execute the anticipated sell-off. The club entered early September with their playoff odds soaring to over 90% but collapsed down the stretch, ultimately losing 15 of their last 22 to miss the playoff by just one game.

Given the club’s peculiar season, it’s hardly a surprise that manager David Ross emerged as a polarizing figure among Cubs fans. That being said, club officials remained steadfast in their support of the manager, with both chairman Tom Ricketts and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer backing Ross as the club’s manager headed into 2024. With that being said, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney indicate that Ross’s spot as manager is less certain in the long term, saying that “The bottom line is that the 2024 team has to win or else Hoyer may be forced to look in another direction” for the club’s manager.

The 2023 campaign was Ross’s fourth season as manager, and his second with a winning record. He managed a third place finish in NL Manager of the Year voting when the Cubs made the postseason under his guidance during the shortened 2020 campaign, though the club was swept by the Marlins in the Wild Card Series. The club then began rebuilding in 2021 and 2022 with consecutive deadline sell-offs that saw the departure of established regulars like Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant. Overall, Ross sports a 262-284 record as Chicago’s manager.

More notes regarding managerial situations around the league…

After being fired as Mets manager last week, veteran skipper Buck Showalter is reportedly hoping to return to the dugout, with the vacancy in Anaheim drawing his particular interest. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Angels are reciprocating Showalter’s interest, with Nightengale noting that Showalter was the first choice of ex-Angels GM Billy Eppler to lead the club following the 2019 season before the club ultimately decided on Joe Maddon. Eppler has since been replaced as the club’s GM by Perry Minasian, though Nightengale notes that he and Showalter worked together when Showalter was manager of the Rangers from 2003-06.
Nightengale also discusses other potential managerial candidates around the league, describing Rangers associate manager Will Venable as “the favorite” to take over for retiring Guardians manager Terry Francona in Cleveland. 2023 was Venable’s first season as associate manager in Texas. Prior to joining the Rangers, he acted as bench coach of the Red Sox under Alex Cora and as a base coach for the Cubs. Venable has been a frequent subject of interest during a variety of managerial searches in recent years, interviewing for the position with the Cubs, Giants, Astros, Tigers and A’s in the past. Nightengale also mentions Marlins first base coach Jon Jay as a “potential candidate” for managerial openings around the league, though he does not specify which clubs may have interest in Jay, who just wrapped up his first season in the big league dugout.

Latest On Red Sox’s GM Search, Offseason Plans

By Nick Deeds | October 8, 2023 at 11:00am CDT

After firing chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom last month, the Red Sox are in the midst of a search for their next baseball operations leader. Team president Sam Kennedy recently spoke to MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam regarding the club’s preferences in their search, and made clear that the club is open to a hire who doesn’t have experience as the top decision maker in a front office.

Kennedy referred to past experience in a front office leadership role as “definitely not a requirement” before referencing GMs from around the league who had success in their first job as a top front office executive, including Yankees GM Brian Cashman and former Red Sox and Cubs executive Theo Epstein.

McAdam goes on to reference Phillies GM Sam Fuld, Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes, and Red Sox assistant GM Eddie Romero as candidates the Red Sox have interest in who have never led a baseball operations department before, though he also notes more experienced candidates the club has been linked to such as Marlins GM Kim Ng (whose contract is up in Miami) and former Astros GM James Click, who currently serves as vice president of baseball strategy for the Blue Jays. The Red Sox had also been previously reported to have interest in Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, though the possibility of Hazen departing Arizona was squashed by his recent extension with the club. Referencing the potential of a job with the Red Sox following his extension, Hazen acknowledged his ties to Boston before emphasizing that he wasn’t ready to leave Arizona.

Aside from the club’s ongoing GM search, McAdam pushes back against a recent report from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, which characterizes Boston as “a real threat” to sign two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani this offseason. Despite that, McAdam reports that Ohtani was “not at all a focus” of Boston’s early meetings regarding their offseason plans, and that principal owner John Henry is against the sort of long-term megadeal it would surely require to lure Ohtani to the Red Sox.

To McAdam’s point, prior to the club’s $331MM extension with third baseman Rafael Devers, the club had signed a contract that surpasses $200MM just once by signing left-hander David Price to a seven-year, $217MM pact. With the Devers deal freshly on the books on top of existing deals for shortstop Trevor Story and left-hander Chris Sale, it’s difficult to imagine the Red Sox offering the massive contract it would likely require to land Ohtani.

The Orioles Rotation Is In Better Shape Than You Might Think

By Nick Deeds | October 8, 2023 at 9:34am CDT

The Orioles have been defined by defying expectations all season long. The club was afforded just 1.3% odds of winning the AL East over at Fangraphs when the 2023 season began back in March, with a projected record of just 76-86 that made them the only team in their division projected to finish below .500. Despite those long odds, however, Baltimore’s youngsters managed to propel themselves to a 101-win season that placed them firmly atop not only their division, but the entire AL, as only the Braves won more games in 2023.

Despite the club’s regular season success, however, the club was still far from favored in the postseason race. Entering October, the Orioles were given just a 6.5% chance of winning the World Series, odds worse than not just the Braves but also the Dodgers, Astros, and even their division-rival Blue Jays. Concern over Baltimore’s ability to translate their regular season success into the postseason seems to revolve primarily around one thing: the club’s pitching staff.

While the loss of closer Felix Bautista to Tommy John surgery hurts the club’s bullpen, much of the concern regarding the Orioles has been directed toward the club’s starting rotation. It’s not hard to see why; the club’s 10.7 fWAR from the rotation this season is just 16th in the majors, better than only the Dodgers among playoff teams. Other metrics are similarly lukewarm on Baltimore’s group: they rank 11th in rotation ERA, 13th in rotation FIP, and 16th in strikeout rate.

When looking at the individual pieces of the club’s rotation, it’s easy to see why the club’s overall numbers are uninspiring. Throughout the 2023 campaign, the Orioles relied on nine pitchers to start games of them: Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin, Jack Flaherty, John Means, and Keegan Akin. Only Means (157), Bradish (146) and Wells (113) posted better than average seasons by measure of ERA+, and only Bradish remains in the club’s rotation for the ALDS after Means was scratched from the roster due to elbow soreness and Wells moved to the bullpen late in the year.

Given this mediocre production from the rotation, it’s easy to think that the club’s decision this offseason to make only minor tweaks to the rotation, replacing Jordan Lyles with Gibson and trading for Irvin, was a major misstep. The reality of the situation is more complicated, however, as the Orioles are set up fairly well for success both in the postseason this year and looking ahead to 2024.

The primary reason for that is a simple one: the starting group in Baltimore improved significantly over the course of the season. Not only did the return of Means in September provide the club with a quality mid-rotation option who could return in later rounds of the postseason and figures to be a staple of the club’s 2024 rotation, but several players took steps forward in the second half. Each of Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer ranked in the top 20 among starters in ERA after the All Star break, with Bradish (2.34) and Rodriguez (2.58) both ranking in the top five. No other team in baseball had three starts as effective at run prevention during the second half, with only the Brewers (Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta) and Rangers (Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery) even having two.

The most obvious success story for the Orioles this year is Bradish, who the club acquired from the Angels in the deal that sent Dylan Bundy to Anaheim back in 2019. After a difficult rookie campaign that saw Bradish post a 4.80 ERA and 4.46 FIP in 23 starts, the right-hander’s sophomore season in 2023 has been a resounding success. Bradish has improved in virtually every aspect of his game this year, with improvements in strikeout rate (25% in 2023), walk rate (6.6%), groundball rate (49.2%), and barrel rate (6.9%). Taken together, those stronger peripherals have allowed Bradish to post a 2.83 ERA in 168 2/3 innings of work that’s surpassed only by Sonny Gray and Gerrit Cole among AL starters, with a 3.27 FIP that ranks fifth-best in the AL behind Gray, Cole, Zach Eflin and Kevin Gausman.

It’s nearly as easy to see the success of Rodriguez, who figures to start Game 2 of the ALDS against the Rangers this afternoon. After being promoted to the majors for his big league debut in early April, the 23-year-old hurler struggled badly in his first taste of big league action, with a 7.35 ERA and 5.90 FIP across his first ten starts in the big leagues. That prompted the Orioles to send Rodriguez back to Triple-A, where he very quickly found his footing with a microscopic 1.69 ERA across 37 1/3 innings of work. Upon his return to the majors in mid-July, Rodriguez looked like a completely different pitcher. In addition to his aforementioned 2.58 ERA across 13 second-half starts ranking fifth-best in the majors over that timeframe, Rodriguez also boasted a 2.76 FIP thanks to a 24% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, and a whopping 52.7% groundball rate that paired with a 3.8% barrel rate to allow Rodriguez to suppress home runs in the second half better than any other starter in the majors.

Kremer is a somewhat different case, as the 2023 campaign has actually been something of a down year for him after he posted a 3.23 ERA and 3.80 FIP across 125 1/3 innings of work last year. The right-hander’s 2023 campaign has had the look of a solid back-of-the-rotation arm overall, with a 4.15 ERA that’s exactly league average by measure of ERA+ and a 4.51 FIP. That said, the second half of his 2023 campaign has lent credence to his 2022 numbers as he’s posted a 3.25 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 14 starts since the All Star break this year.

With Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer as the club’s top three options in the ALDS, the Orioles are in a recoverable position even after dropping Game 1 to the Rangers yesterday afternoon. What’s more, the club has a strong foundation for their rotation as they look ahead to the offseason and the 2024 campaign, as the aforementioned trio and Means are all under team control and figure to occupy rotation spots next year.

With four solid, average-or-better rotation arms locked in for 2024, the club is in a much stronger place than they were this time last year, when Kremer appeared to be the closest thing to a known commodity the Orioles had available after his first season as a regular starter. That should give GM Mike Elias and the club’s front office plenty of confidence in looking to add another arm to round out the club’s 2024 rotation this offseason on a free agent market that offers plenty of interesting options.

Kyle Wright To Undergo Shoulder Surgery, Will Miss 2024 Season

By Mark Polishuk | October 7, 2023 at 10:59pm CDT

Kyle Wright has battled shoulder problems all season, resulting in the Braves placing the righty on the 60-day injured list just prior to the start of their playoff run. Wright will miss all of the postseason, and unfortunately now all of the 2024 season as well, since manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including The Athletic’s David O’Brien) that Wright will undergo surgery to correct the problem.

Wright’s shoulder injuries started in Spring Training and resulted in a season-opening stint on the 15-day IL. He made five starts before being forced back to the IL for ended up being more than a four-month layoff. Returning to the Braves’ rotation in September, Wright pitched in four games — two as a starter, then two more as a reliever. With the playoffs looming, Wright was being positioned for a role in Atlanta’s bullpen during the postseason, which he was happy to do in order to help the team win. However, an MRI on Friday revealed more shoulder damage, and surgery now looks like a necessity to correct the problem once and for all.

The injury will essentially cost Wright two years of his career, as he’ll wrap his 2023 campaign with only 31 innings pitched. It’s a brutal outcome for the 28-year-old, especially after it looked like he had finally established himself as a viable big league starter in 2022.

The fifth overall pick of the 2017 draft, Wright took a quick route to the big leagues and made his MLB debut in September 2018. Through the 2018-21 seasons, Wright only pitched 70 Major League innings over 21 appearances (14 of them starts), posting a 6.56 ERA and simply not pitching well enough to stick in the rotation or even on the active roster. The silver lining was a championship ring in 2021, as though he made only two appearances in the regular season, he landed a spot on the World Series roster and delivered a 1.59 ERA in 5 2/3 innings of relief work.

This set the stage for Wright’s breakout. He posted a 3.19 ERA over 180 1/3 innings in 2022, leading the majors in wins with a 21-5 record. Though he allowed a lot of hard contact and his walk and strikeout rates were only slightly above the league average, Wright’s 3.48 SIERA wasn’t much higher than his real-world ERA, and his 55.6% grounder rate only got a bit of batted-ball luck in the form of a .284 BABIP.

Wright’s 2023 numbers were basically a wash, as he had a 6.97 ERA over his 31 frames. With this recent performance weighing more heavily than his 2022 season, Wright was projected to earn $1.4MM in 2024, his first year of arbitration eligibility. Missing the 2024 season entirely would mean that Wright’s 2025 salary will either match or be fractionally beyond that $1.4MM figure, so even if he returns healthy and productive in 2025, he’d get a bump up to maybe something in the $4MM range for 2026.

In short, the shoulder injury has cost Wright millions of dollars, as he would’ve locked in some increasingly large salaries through his arb years if he’d kept pitching anything like his 2022 self. Given the Braves’ penchant for extending their in-house players, a solid 2023 season might’ve been enough evidence to convince the front office to lock in a multi-year agreement with Wright, giving him an even bigger payday.

The one possible upside to these limited salaries is that Wright is still making so relatively little that the Braves will still tender him a contract, allowing Wright to rehab and then hopefully bounce back in good form by Opening Day 2025. But obviously, losing Wright for a year has an impact on the Braves’ long-term pitching plans as well.

Spencer Strider is locked up on an extension through at least the 2028 season, making him the cornerstone of Atlanta’s rotation for the rest of the decade. Beyond Strider, Max Fried is a free agent after the 2024 season, and 39-year-old Charlie Morton could potentially retire after this season. Bryce Elder pitched generally well this year, though his numbers regressed significantly after a great first three months. Rookies Jared Shuster, Dylan Dodd, Allan Winans, and AJ Smith-Shawver all made their big league debuts in 2023, but Smith-Shawver is the only one of the group who pitched decently well. Michael Soroka didn’t pitch particularly well over 32 1/3 innings in his comeback season and was shut down in September due to forearm inflammation. As for other injured starters, Kolby Allard only threw 12 1/3 innings due to oblique and shoulder nerve inflammation,and Huascar Ynoa missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

It’s a lot of depth but not necessarily a lot of proven quality, though getting by with a so-so-rotation might be okay for a Braves team with such a spectacular offense. Going into 2024, Strider, Fried, and Elder seemingly have rotation spots locked, and if Morton returns, that’s still a solid top four. Top prospect Hurston Waldrep might also be on the roster as early as Opening Day, so it’s possible Wright might’ve had a hard time getting back into the rotation (or even beating out the many other arms for the unofficial sixth starter job) even if he’d avoided surgery. Many things could still shake out by the time Wright is ready in 2025, particularly if Fried did leave and if Morton did decide to finally hang up his glove.

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