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Trade Deadline Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals reached the All-Star break in a tricky position.  With about 40% of their season remaining, they're only 1.5 games back in the Wild Card and have a real shot at the playoffs.  That's the case despite an offseason in which they did not attempt to improve the club, in what longtime president of baseball operations John Mozeliak termed a "reset."  And Mozeliak will be navigating the July 31st deadline as a lame duck, given the club's stated plan to give his job to Chaim Bloom for the 2026 season.

Mozeliak put it this way nine days ago (Katie Woo of The Athletic reporting): "I do feel like where we are in the week leading up, or the 72 hours leading up to the trading deadline, may affect how we make our decisions."  He further explained, "When we talk about all-in, I do think based on where the franchise is, based on payroll down and thinking more of the long view, we’re still trying to balance today’s success with ultimately having long-term success."

Record: 51-46 (28.5% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Right-handed bat, pitching depth

Regarding the transition to Bloom, Mozeliak said, "When we get closer to the deadline, if there’s something that could impact how the future looks, clearly we’ll take a look at in a more collaborative sense."

With relative stability on the pitching staff, Mozeliak's deadline focus on the buy side may be on an offense that ranks fifth in the National League with 4.58 runs scored per game.  Within that respectable showing, however, is a team that ranks 10th in the NL with an 88 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.

Mozeliak acknowledged the deficiency but also said, "I do feel like where they’re going to be in a week or two is not a glaring hole in terms of trading deadline thoughts," given Ivan Herrera's July 13th activation and minor injuries affecting other righty bats like Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras.

Brendan Donovan has been an everyday player, generally at second base, despite consistent struggles against southpaws over the last three seasons.  Alec Burleson, currently deployed in the corner outfield, has been similar.  Center fielder Victor Scott II has sat against some lefties in the last month in favor of Garrett Hampson.  Lars Nootbaar, on the IL for a left costochondral sprain, had been sitting here or there against lefties but often with Donovan or Burleson in his spot and Thomas Saggese getting the start at second base.

Given that Mozeliak said "I don’t think we’re ever going to take away from the guys we’re trying to see play," it may be difficult to find the ideal addition.  An improvement over Hampson as Scott's platoon partner could be one answer.  Perhaps a call to the White Sox regarding Austin Slater or Michael A. Taylor of the White Sox would make sense.  A homecoming for Randal Grichuk could work, though he hasn't played much center in recent years.  Maybe the Astros will find Chas McCormick expendable once he completes his rehab assignment for an oblique strain.

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good morning! Hope everyone enjoyed the Derby last night! We’ll get going at 1pm CT today, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time.
  • Greetings!
  • Let’s begin.

Tim

  • What’s a comparative contract to what bichette is looking for?

Steve Adams

  • He’s going to hit free agency ahead of his age-28 season and as (assuming this keeps up) a well above-average hitter in six of his seven MLB seasons, with an injury-ruined 2024 campaign being the outlier.I don’t see any reason he wouldn’t be looking to top the deals signed by Javier Baez (6 years, $140MM), Trevor Story (6/140), Dansby Swanson (7/177) and Willy Adames (7/182) — especially since he’s going to hit free agency a year younger than all of them were when they got to the market.

Brian

  • Biggest Phillies need at deadline…OF help or bullpen arms?

Steve Adams

  • Bullpen help, but it doesn’t have to be one or the other.

Steve Cohen

  • Who would you list as the leading Candidates for ROY in each league? Does Jacob  Misorowski have a legitimate shot?

Brewers Fan

  • Assumig Misiorowski wins the ROY, how does that change his status with us? Do we lose a year of control? He wasn’t promoted early enough to get a draft pick through the promotional program thing right? The rules around that stuff always confuse me…

Steve Adams

  • I love Misiorowski, but Rookie of the Year talk is pretty premature with only five starts. I think it’s fine that they took the buzzworthy rookie and put him on the All-Star team, but to call him the ROY favorite when Drake Baldwin is hitting .279/.351/.479 with plus defense in 65 games feels aggressive.Miz could absolutely end up getting there, but he needs to stay healthy and needs to remain as effective as he’s been, which isn’t a surefire thing for a guy who’s walking 11% of his opponents and benefiting from a .160 BABIP.

    Misiorowski will earn a full year of service if he finishes first or second in ROY voting. The Brewers wouldn’t get a pick for that since he wasn’t called up until  midseason.

Curious A’s Fan

  • Is JJ Bleday the A’s best (realistic) trade chip at the deadline?

Steve Adams

  • They’d be selling low, but I can see it. Jeffrey Springs is a more realistic trade option who’d net a decent return, though.

My Name

  • With Buxton’s comments about having a no trade clause, will reporters be done with the trade rumors?

Read more

Guardians Place Paul Sewald On Injured List

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The Guardians placed right-hander Paul Sewald on the 15-day injured list due to a right shoulder strain, reports Tim Stebbins of MLB.com. The move is retroactive to July 12, and a corresponding transaction has not yet been announced by the club. It’s not clear how long Sewald is expected to be out.

It’s the second time this season that the 35-year-old Sewald has been placed on the injured list due to a strain in his throwing shoulder. The former D-backs and Mariners closer signed a one-year, $7MM deal with Cleveland in free agency and struggled for much of April before heading to the IL for what would wind up being a stay of more than two months. Sewald was only reinstated from the injured list on July 5, but it seems his return will only last for a week.

In his limited time with the Guardians, Sewald has pitched to a 4.70 ERA with terrific strikeout and walk rates of 29% and 6.5%, respectively. That’s all come in a sample of just 15 1/3 innings. Sewald allowed eight runs in 11 2/3 innings prior to his original IL stint (6.17 ERA) and returned with 3 2/3 shutout frames before now heading back to the 15-day IL. He’s been more homer-prone than usual in that small sample (1.76 HR/9) and has seen his fastball velocity dip from an average of 91.4 mph last year to just 90.3 mph this season.

Sewald has never thrown particularly hard, but his velocity has been in a steady decline in recent seasons. He averaged a career-best 92.5 mph in 2022 but dipped to 92.2 mph, 91.4 mph and 90.3 mph in subsequent seasons. His swinging-strike rate has dropped accordingly in each season, though he’s still managed to continue posting strong strikeout rates.

Sewald’s placement on the injured list just over two weeks before the trade deadline is increasingly notable, given his team’s recent slide in the standings. The Guardians dropped 10 straight games from June 27 through July 6, though they lessened some of that sting by closing out the first half with six wins in seven games. They’re now three games under .500 and four and a half games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League.

Cleveland will open the second half with winnable series against the A’s, Orioles, Royals and Rockies — all of whom have records that are comparable to or worse than the Guardians’ own mark of 46-49. If the Guards slip further down the standings, they’d be increasingly likely to listen to offers on short-term veterans like Sewald. If he’s facing a notable absence, that scenario is off the table. Conversely, if the Guardians slice through that slate of opponents in the two weeks between now and the trade deadline, they’d presumably be more apt to add to the club, and Sewald’s absence could increase the front office’s desire to add to the bullpen.

Mets, Yankees Among Teams To Show Recent Interest In David Robertson

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Free agent reliever David Robertson has been throwing for interested clubs recently, reports Will Sammon of The Athletic. Two of his former clubs, the Mets and Yankees, have at least looked into the possibility of signing Robertson, per the report. Several other clubs are expected to scout a throwing session for Robertson over the next week or so.

Robertson, who turned 40 in April, hasn’t signed with a team since the 2024 season concluded. The right-hander was one of several notable older veterans who didn’t find offers to his liking in free agency. Lance Lynn encountered a similar situation and opted to retire. J.D. Martinez is unsigned as well and recently received some interest from the Rangers. Robertson’s recent and upcoming showcases for interested teams serve as a notable update on his status, signaling both an intent to play and at least some level of readiness to take the mound.

The lack of a compelling offer for Robertson wasn’t due to any downturn in results. The former All-Star and 16-year MLB veteran was terrific for Texas in 2024, pitching 72 innings of 3.00 ERA ball. Robertson picked up 34 holds and two saves while fanning a huge 33.4% of opponents against a 9.1% walk rate. He averaged 93.3 mph on his go-to cutter, which tied his 2023 mark for the highest of any single season in his career. Robertson’s 11.7% swinging-strike rate was a dip from his 2022-23 levels (13.3%) but right in line with his career 11.8% mark.

Back in April, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that Robertson had been seeking a $10MM annual salary in free agency over the winter. He earned $11.5MM with the Rangers last year ($5MM of it deferred). The Phillies also showed some interest in Robertson early in the season, even before Jose Alvarado was hit with an 80-game PED suspension, and they’re known to be on the lookout for bullpen help. It would stand to reason that they’re still interested in a reunion with Robertson themselves.

Presumably, Robertson will be prioritizing a deal with probable contenders. The Yankees, Mets and Phillies all fit that billing and are all among the top eight teams in terms of current playoff odds, per FanGraphs. The Tigers, Cubs, Astros, Blue Jays, Brewers and Mariners are all in extremely favorable postseason position as well, holding at least an 80% postseason chance per the odds at FanGraphs and/or Baseball Prospectus.

Poll: Who Will Win The 2025 All-Star Game?

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The All-Star game is later today, and fans around the game are waiting eagerly for the star-studded event while baseball’s best players prepare to take the field. These days, the Midsummer Classic doesn’t hold the same influence as it did when it decided home field advantage for the World Series prior to the 2017 season. Even so, the exhibition remains a point of pride for players. The AL has historically dominated over the years, as they won every year between 2013 and 2022 until the NL finally snapped that streak in 2023. The junior circuit took the crown back last year, however. Who will emerge victorious this year? There’s a level of randomness to a one-game event like this one that can’t be ignored, but that doesn’t mean we can’t evaluate the talent on each roster and attempt to predict who will come out on top.

The starting pitchers for each league are difficult to choose between. Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes are two of the most dominating arms in the sport. Skenes has a 2.01 ERA and 27.9% strikeout rate this year, while Skubal has a 2.23 ERA backed up by an absurd 33.4% strikeout rate. Perhaps Skubal’s overwhelming strikeout stuff could give the American League a slight edge, but a number of other arms will appear throughout the game as well. The National League has a couple of more unconventional picks, as veteran lefty Clayton Kershaw will take the mound at some point during the game as a “Legend Pick” by the commissioner’s office despite his numbers in ten starts this year being more solid than spectacular. Another wild card on the NL roster is rookie Jacob Misiorowski, who has started just five MLB games so far but has a 33.7% strikeout rate that rivals that of Skubal.

While there are some reasons to think the pitching options favor the junior circuit, the NL benefits from having arguably the stronger group of position players. Perhaps no one in the NL can hold a candle to the pairing that is Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh, but with Jose Ramirez sitting the game out this year and the unconventional pick of Javier Baez patrolling center field to start the game for the AL it’s not hard to see how the senior circuit could stake out an advantage. All nine of the NL’s elected starters figure to participate in the game, meaning Skubal and the rest of the AL’s pitchers will have to contend with a heart of the order that figures to feature Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Kyle Tucker. The NL also figures to be no slouch defensively, with Francisco Lindor and Pete Crow-Armstrong offering two of the sport’s very best gloves up the middle.

Of course, it’s not just the starters who will play in the game. Jonathan Aranda, Byron Buxton, and Bobby Witt Jr. are among the options on the AL’s star-studded bench, though players like Pete Alonso, Elly De La Cruz, and Corbin Carroll are hardly slouches in their own right. Should Boone and Roberts opt to go for traditional closers in this evening’s game, both will have formidable options as well. Edwin Diaz is representing the Mets this year with a 1.66 ERA and 19 saves so far, while Astros southpaw Josh Hader sports a 2.53 ERA and 25 saves.

Both rosters are extremely impressive from top to bottom, as any collection of All-Stars should be. Which side will come out on top in tonight’s contest? Have your say in the poll below:

The Opener: All-Star Game, Trade Season, MLBTR Chat

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:

1. 2025 All-Star Game:

The main event of the All-Star break is set to take place later today when some of the biggest stars from the AL and NL take the field for the Midsummer Classic. Reigning American League Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal will take the mound to represent the junior circuit, managed by Yankees skipper Aaron Boone. The National League, led by Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, will counter with 2024 National League Rookie of the Year and Cy Young finalist Paul Skenes. Skubal has a 2.23 ERA in 19 starts this year and leads the majors with a 2.01 FIP, while Skenes leads the majors with a 2.01 ERA in 20 starts. Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, Mariners catcher and Home Run Derby champ Cal Raleigh, Orioles first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn, and A’s shortstop Jacob Wilson will all start the game in their first career All-Star appearances. The game is slated to begin at 8pm local time in Atlanta and will air on FOX.

2. Trade season to begin?

The 2025 draft has now officially concluded, and that means the attention of front offices around the game can turn fully towards the impending trade deadline. There have already been a handful of deals, including last month’s shocking Rafael Devers blockbuster and the swap that sent draft capital from the Orioles to the Rays in exchange for reliever Bryan Baker last week. For the most part, teams have held off on making moves of real significance. Several clubs on the fringes of playoff contention are still weighing whether to sell off for the future or make an effort to push in this year — or some combination of both. While fans wait for the deals to start rolling in, MLBTR Front Office subscribers and check in on our Trade Deadline Outlook series. Our Top 40 Trade Candidates for the 2025 Deadline, meanwhile, is available to all readers as a primer for trade season.

3. MLBTR chat today:

With the All-Star break underway and the draft in the rearview mirror, MLB’s trade deadline is just over two weeks away! Plenty of deals should be expected between now and then now that trade season can finally kick into full swing, with a number of contenders surely interested in patching holes in their roster ahead of the stretch run. Whether you’re looking ahead to the deadline or still trying to sort between the contenders and pretenders, MLBTR’s Steve Adams has you covered in a live chat scheduled for 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Trade Deadline Outlook: San Diego Padres

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Our team-by-team Trade Deadline Outlook series continues with the Padres. San Diego's top-heavy roster makes it easy to identify the priorities. If they remain resistant to trading either of their top prospects, they could pivot to under-the-radar or rental trade targets.

Record: 52-44 (48.3% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Mariners

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Catcher, left field, starting pitcher, utility infielder

San Diego has had the same top few needs going back to the offseason. Free agent departures of Kyle Higashioka and Jurickson Profar left them without answers at catcher and in left field, respectively. The rotation depth has been a question since Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery. The late-offseason Nick Pivetta signing has been massive, but the back of the rotation still feels tenuous. Low-cost pickups in catcher and left field have not panned out, leaving the Padres to address both positions over the next two and a half weeks.

The Padres have had arguably the worst catching tandem in MLB. Elias Díaz and Martín Maldonado have combined to hit .195/.255/.306 over 327 plate appearances. Neither player rates highly as a pitch framer. While both players, especially Maldonado, have a strong reputation for the unquantifiable aspects of catcher defense (e.g. game-calling, managing a pitching staff), the production has not been there. It speaks to how far former top prospect Luis Campusano has fallen in the organization's eyes that he hasn't gotten an opportunity this year.

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Jim Clancy Passes Away

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Former All-Star Jim Clancy has passed away, the Blue Jays announced. He was 69.

Clancy was drafted by the Rangers in the fourth round of the 1974 draft out of a Chicago high school. The 6’4″ right-hander pitched three seasons in the minors. The Blue Jays selected him in the expansion draft in advance of their inaugural season in ’77. Clancy made his big league debut against his former club that July. He started 13 games as a rookie and would remain a fixture in Toronto’s rotation for the next decade.

He won 10 games with a 4.09 earned run average over 31 outings during his first full MLB season. He struggled through an injury-plagued ’79 season before breaking out the following year. Clancy turned in a career-low 3.30 ERA across 250 2/3 innings in 1980. After a down season in ’81, he was one of the top pitchers in the sport in 1982. Clancy led MLB with 40 starts and tossed a career-high 266 2/3 innings. He won 16 games and earned an All-Star nod.

That kicked off a six-year run in which he posted five seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA. Clancy surpassed 30 starts and 200 innings in all but one of those years. While injuries limited him in 1985, he managed a 3.78 ERA across 23 starts and helped the Jays to the first playoff berth in franchise history.

Clancy pitched in Toronto through the end of the ’88 campaign. He finished his Jays tenure with a 4.10 earned run average and 128 wins. Longtime teammate Dave Stieb is the only pitcher in franchise history to top Clancy’s 2204 2/3 innings pitched. He trails only Stieb and Roy Halladay on the franchise leaderboard in strikeouts and wins. After leaving Toronto in free agency, he finished his career as a swingman with the Astros and Braves.

At age 35, Clancy was part of Atlanta’s pennant-winning ’91 team and made three appearances in that year’s classic World Series against Minnesota. He was the winning pitcher in Game 3, recording one out in the top of the 12th inning before Atlanta walked it off in the bottom half. He made his final major league appearance two nights later, tossing two innings of one-run ball to record a hold in an eventual blowout win. That pulled Atlanta ahead in the series by a 3-2 margin, but Minnesota won the final two games in extras (capped by Jack Morris’ 10-inning shutout in Game 7) to win the title.

MLBTR joins others throughout the game in sending our condolences to Clancy’s family, friends, loved ones and former teammates.

Grant Hartwig Signs With NPB’s Hanshin Tigers

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Reliever Grant Hartwig has signed with the Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. The 6’5″ righty had been on a minor league contract with the Mets but was released last month. It seems that was to pursue this opportunity.

Hartwig, 27, pitched in the big leagues for the Mets in each of the previous two seasons. He logged 35 1/3 innings of 4.84 ERA ball as a rookie in 2023. He spent most of last year in Triple-A and lost a couple months to a meniscus tear that required surgery. Hartwig appeared in four MLB games, allowing six runs in 6 2/3 innings. The Mets dropped him from the 40-man roster early in the offseason and brought him back on a minor league deal.

A product of Miami Ohio, Hartwig signed with the Mets in 2021 as an undrafted free agent. He has turned in a 3.42 earned run average in parts of five minor league campaigns. Hartwig had a matching 3.42 ERA across 23 2/3 Triple-A frames this year, though he bizarrely surrendered 13 unearned runs (against nine earned) in 21 appearances. He fanned 29% of batters faced with a solid 8.8% walk rate while averaging nearly 95 MPH on his sinker. Hartwig will presumably lock in a stronger guarantee in NPB than he would’ve made had he played out the season in Triple-A.

Pirates Release Matt Gorski

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The Pirates released outfielder Matt Gorski, per the MLB.com transaction tracker. Pittsburgh designated him for assignment last week to open a 40-man roster spot for reliever Yohan Ramírez.

Gorski has been on the Triple-A injured list since late May. Injured players cannot be placed on outright waivers. Once Pittsburgh designated him for assignment, a release was essentially inevitable. Assuming Gorski clears release waivers, the Bucs could try to bring him back on a minor league contract. He’ll have the right to pursue other opportunities as a free agent though.

The righty-hitting Gorski is a former second-round pick. He has power and speed but has had issues making consistent contact throughout his minor league career. The Indiana product got out to a hot start this year with Triple-A Indianapolis. Pittsburgh called him up in late April.

Gorski blasted a 434-foot home run off Tyler Anderson in his first major league at-bat. He recorded two homers and a triple in 15 games, but he also struck out 16 times while drawing just one walk. Pittsburgh optioned him back to Triple-A on May 17; he suffered the undisclosed injury a week later. He has hit .195 in 41 major league at-bats and is a career .254/.313/.509 hitter in parts of four Triple-A seasons.

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