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Trade Rumblings: Giants, Longoria, Gray, Yankees, Arenado

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The latest from the trade market…

  • Giants third baseman Evan Longoria lamented the slow-moving free-agent process in an Instagram post Friday, criticizing the advent of new metrics which he believes devalue players. Regardless of whether you agree with Longoria’s stance, one doesn’t need analytics to figure out he disappointed in 2018, his first year with the Giants, as the former Rays superstar slashed a mere .244/.281/.413 in 512 plate appearances. On the heels of that subpar showing, San Francisco’s “gauging” interest in Longoria on the trade front, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports. Although, as Heyman points out, moving Longoria would be a significant challenge for the Giants. Not only is he a 33-year-old coming off a career-worst season, but Longoria has another $72.5MM left on the extension he signed as a Ray in 2012, and his contract also includes a $2MM assignment bonus in the seemingly improbable event the Giants trade him.
  • The Reds are reportedly close to acquiring Yankees right-hander Sonny Gray, but he had been on the Giants’ “radar,” Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. For the most part, though, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is seeking controllable hurlers who come with minor league options, per Schulman, and Gray didn’t fit either category. Gray’s only under wraps for another year, though adding him would have meant a return to the Bay Area – where he largely held his own in Oakland from 2013-17 – as well as a reunion with former A’s executive Zaidi.
  • In a juicier Yankees-related note, GM Brian Cashman has held internal discussions regarding a potential offseason or in-season trade for Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado, according to Andy Martino of SNY.tv. With Arenado entering his last year of control, in which he’ll earn between $24MM and $30MM, his eminently successful Colorado tenure may be nearing an end. However, trade whispers surrounding the soon-to-be 28-year-old are “far fetched,” Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post hears from multiple sources. Of course, if the Yankees want to upgrade at third before the season, 26-year-old free agent Manny Machado represents a younger, arguably better option than Arenado, but it doesn’t seem the Bombers are pursuing the former.

East Notes: Rays, LeMahieu, Realmuto, Braves, Mets

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Count the Rays among the teams that chased second baseman DJ LeMahieu during his trip to the open market, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Before LeMahieu joined the division-rival Yankees on a two-year, $24MM guarantee, Tampa Bay was “very much in on” him, Topkin writes. Now, with spring training approaching, it’s possible the Rays’ roster may be set, suggests Topkin, who runs down the team’s options at each position. However, Topkin still doesn’t rule out further moves, including a trade for Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, who has garnered serious interest this month from the Rays and several other teams.

More from the East Coast…

  • With the Braves looking for help in the grass, general manager Alex Anthopoulos revealed Saturday that there are “probably” three outfielders available who fit what the club is seeking, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets. Anthopoulos added one or more of those players has been in trade discussions but has not made it into the rumor mill, per O’Brien, who surmises that free agents A.J. Pollock and Nick Markakis and Diamondbacks outfielder David Peralta could make up at least a couple of the Braves’ targets. The Braves have been connected to all three throughout the winter, and the easiest to acquire would likely be Markakis, who capped off a four-year run in Atlanta with a solid showing in 2018. But as a 35-year-old corner outfielder with an unspectacular resume, it’s obvious Markakis – unlike Pollock – is not a candidate to land a long-term contract.
  • Before he agreed to sign with the Twins on Saturday, left-hander Martin Perez drew interest from the Mets, Jon Heyman of Fancred relays. However, the Mets wanted Perez as a depth piece, which helped point him to a better opportunity in Minnesota, Heyman reports. Coming off a miserable 2018 in Texas, Perez wouldn’t have been a clear upgrade over anyone in the Mets’ rotation – a group that features reigning NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz and Jason Vargas. The Mets’ top depth starting possibilities include Seth Lugo, though he may be too important to their bullpen to move to the rotation if a need arises, and recent minor league pickup Hector Santiago.
  • Back to the Braves, who should get back a couple of their own key pitchers in time for spring training. Both starter Mike Soroka and reliever Darren O’Day are on track to return after injury-shortened seasons, Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution details. The 21-year-old Soroka was terrific during a five-start, 25 2/3-inning major league debut in 2018, but he last took the mound June 19 on account of shoulder inflammation. He’s now a favorite to win a starting spot in Atlanta heading into 2019, Burns observes. O’Day, meanwhile, underwent season-ending hamstring surgery in late June, but the Braves nonetheless took him from the Orioles a month later in a deal headlined by Kevin Gausman. The 36-year-old O’Day had been amid another quality season before he went down, continuing a long run of effectiveness. With a $9MM salary, he’s currently the Braves’ most expensive reliever.

Cubs Notes: TV Network, Maddon, Harper, Russell

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The Cubs’ 15-year deal with NBC Sports Chicago is set to expire at the end of 2019, so they plan to launch their own regional sports network in time for the 2020 season, president of business operations Crane Kenney told Jordan Bastian of MLB.com and other reporters Saturday. “We are going to have our own channel. We’ve got a seat at a much larger table, so we’ve been involved in conversations not locally, but more nationally, on how we’ll launch our channel and who we’ll launch it with,” said Kenney, who added the Cubs “will do it with a strategic partner” and that “the details of that will be more apparent in probably the next 30 days.” Kenney also hinted that another baseball team will be involved, though he revealed it won’t be a local club, according to Bastian.

Here’s more on the North Siders:

  • Even though the Cubs won’t pursue an extension with Joe Maddon this offseason, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said Saturday he wants the manager to stick around beyond 2019. “I sure hope so,” said Epstein, who, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune writes, is “betting that Maddon remains as manager past this season.” The Cubs have been resoundingly successful in their four years under Maddon, who will turn 65 in February, as they’ve gone 387-261 with a playoff appearance in each season, two NL Central titles and their drought-breaking World Series championship in 2016.
  • Maddon indicated earlier this week that the Cubs aren’t going to sign free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper, and third baseman Kris Bryant threw more cold water on that possibility Saturday (via Bastian). “He’s not signing here,” Bryant said of Harper, a longtime friend who had been a speculative target for the Cubs entering the offseason. However, because the Cubs are seemingly maxed out on spending, they haven’t been in the Harper market this winter. The team’s easily slated to run a franchise-record Opening Day payroll in 2019, as Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates, and Epstein “emphasized” Saturday that he can’t go over budget, per Gonzales.
  • Epstein also spoke this week about shortstop Addison Russell, who, to the disgust of many observers, remains in the Cubs’ plans despite incurring a 40-game suspension for domestic violence. As Patrick Mooney of The Athletic relays in a subscription piece, Epstein stated Friday that the Cubs’ initial reaction was to move on from Russell. But they’re instead primed to keep the 24-year-old Russell and pay him a $3.4MM salary, in part because Epstein learned that “domestic violence experts do not believe in zero tolerance.” Rather, they advocate “a second chance if the offender is willing (to) do the difficult work of stabilizing his life and relationships and growing so this doesn’t happen again.” The Cubs are giving Russell that second chance, though Epstein noted “people have the right to boo” Russell, and the team’s prepared to “move on instantaneously” from him if he squanders his opportunity. Notably, Epstein added that Melisa Reidy, Russell’s ex-wife whose abuse allegations led to his suspension, was supportive of the Cubs’ choice to keep him in the fold, saying: “She felt like this was Addison’s best chance to get his life in order and get support from us with the incentive of earning his way back to the Cubs.”

Red Sox Notes: Bogaerts, Betts, Sale, Porcello, Bullpen, Catchers

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Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reported earlier this month that the world champion Red Sox had been discussing a contract extension with an unnamed player. It turns out that player was shortstop Xander Bogaerts, according to Drellich, though he adds that the two sides never came close to an agreement during their talks. The 26-year-old Bogaerts is now slated to make $12MM in 2019, potentially his last season with the Red Sox. Meanwhile, outfielder Andrew Benintendi – who, according to industry speculation, was an extension target for the Red Sox earlier this offseason – said Saturday he and the team haven’t talked about a new pact, Drellich relays. The 24-year-old Benintendi still has another pre-arbitration season remaining, meaning the Red Sox aren’t in danger of losing him for a while.

  • As with Bogaerts, the Red Sox are at risk of losing outfielder and reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts in the near future. Betts, 26, is entering his penultimate year of arbitration control, in which he’ll earn $20MM (a record for a player in Year 2 of arb eligibility). Unsurprisingly, though, the Red Sox want to keep Betts in the fold for the long haul. CEO Sam Kennedy stated Saturday (via Drellich) that “we’ve made it crystal clear that we want him a part of the Red Sox organization long term.” Betts, for his part, said: “Contract things are kind of tough to come up with, especially with both sides and kind of how the economics and all those things work. I love Boston, love my teammates, love the fans and all those types of things, so we’ll just continue to see what happens.” While Betts does appear open to signing an extension with the Red Sox, he doesn’t seem averse to testing the open market, per Drellich.
  • Two key members of Boston’s starting staff, left-hander Chris Sale and righty Rick Porcello, could each hit free agency a year from now. The soon-to-be 30-year-old Sale suggested Saturday that he’s willing to discuss an extension, but the Red Sox haven’t broached the subject yet. “My phone is on if they call me,” he said (via Ian Browne of MLB.com). “Obviously nothing has happened up until this point. If they call, I’d answer.” Sale also indicated that his left shoulder – which was a problem at times late last season, when he dealt with a massive drop in velocity – is no longer an issue. As for Porcello, 30, he also revealed that no extension talks have taken place, though he’d “love to” discuss a new contract with the club, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com tweets. For now, Porcello’s on track to wrap up the four-year, $82.5MM pact he signed with the Red Sox in April 2015.
  • Having lost Joe Kelly to the Dodgers and Craig Kimbrel to the open market, Boston’s “actively engaged with multiple free-agent relievers,” Cotillo writes. While Cotillo doesn’t rule out a Kimbrel re-signing, he notes an addition could come in the $2MM to $3MM neighborhood. Kimbrel will certainly earn far more than that, though there are several other free agents who could be possibilities for the Red Sox in that price range.
  • Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Thursday he doesn’t expect that all three of the team’s catchers – Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon and Blake Swihart – will be on its Opening Day roster, Sean McAdam of BostonSportsJournal.com reports (subscription required). Because all of those players are out of options, a trade is likely coming. Dombrowski noted that “there’s interest, but we still haven’t made a deal we feel comfortable making.” All three catchers had abysmal offensive seasons over 200-plus plate appearances in 2018, but if defense is Boston’s main concern, the odd man out may be Swihart. After all, the former high-end prospect has accrued little playing time as a backstop over the past few years.

Yankees, Reds “Finalizing” Sonny Gray Trade

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Jan. 19, 6:08pm: The two sides are “finalizing” the deal, per Heyman, who reports the Yankees will likely receive Long and a draft pick. The Yankees could also land a third piece in the trade, Heyman suggests.

2:31pm: Per Heyman, the Reds would prefer not to include Stephenson in a deal for Gray, and talks now “center around” second-base prospect Shed Long. Stephenson, 22, was the 11th overall selection in the 2015 draft, and has steadily progressed through the Cincinnati farm. In last month’s update, FanGraphs projects the 6’4 righty as an average regular, lauding his double-plus arm and 60 grade raw power. Long also projects as a regular, though perhaps not at second, where he has “below average hands” and “clunky footwork,” per FanGraphs.

Jan. 19, 9:02am: Expect Gray to be moved sometime this weekend, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The Reds and Yankees are inching closer to a deal, with two prospects and a draft pick the expected return for Gray. Long and Stephenson (currently the #6 and #7 prospects in the Reds system per MLB.com) are the prospects most likely to be headed to New York. It’s not a done deal, however, as the Giants, Brewers, and Braves are still part of the conversation.

Jan. 18, 4:55pm: There are other teams still involved, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv (Twitter link), including at least the Padres and Giants. There have been some discussions of three-team arrangements, Martino also notes.

Jan. 18, 2:33pm: The Reds are “making progress” in their talks with the Yankees regarding veteran righty Sonny Gray, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). It emerged yesterday that the Yanks were nearing a deal involving the starter, though multiple organizations were still said to be involved in talks.

It seems fair now to assume that the Cincinnati club is emerging as a favorite, though it’s certainly too soon to rule out alternatives. The Reds have already added a pair of starters via trade in Tanner Roark and Alex Wood. Like those hurlers, Gray is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility. He’ll earn $7.5MM after agreeing to terms with the Yankees, making him a bit less costly than the other two pitchers.

The potential return remains to be seen, and obviously hasn’t quite been nailed down. Jon Heyman of Fancred reports (Twitter links) that the organizations are still discussing different prospects — Shed Long and Tyler Stephenson among them — while a draft pick could also be part of the return. (That would have to be the Reds’ 2019 competitive balance pick, which is a valuable sandwich-round selection.)

If they can wrap up an agreement, the Reds would certainly present quite a different rotation than the ones they have trotted out in recent years. Roark, Wood, and (hypothetically) Gray all have their warts, but each has found plenty of success in the majors. It’s notable, of course, that none of those players comes with future control rights. The same is also true of recently acquired outfielders Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp. The Reds evidently prefer one-year commitments at this time, allowing them the chance to reevaluate their future needs after the conclusion of the 2019 season.

Twins To Sign Martin Perez

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5:04pm: Perez’s deal is worth approximately $3.5MM, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets.

3:01pm: Per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Twins have agreed to a one-year deal with free agent lefty Martin Perez.  The deal reportedly includes a club option for 2020.

Martin Perez

Perez, 27, appeared in parts of seven seasons with the Rangers, posting a career 4.63 ERA/4.44 FIP/4.51 xFIP in 761 1/3 IP. A once-prized farmhand under the guiding hand of former Rangers assistant GM (and current Twins GM) Thad Levine, Perez dealt with numerous minor injuries during his tenure with the club, and never quite fulfilled the tantalizing bat-missing potential he displayed in the minors. Perez’s 5.46 K/9 ranks as one of the league’s lowest during that span, and it isn’t much offset by a career 3.19 BB/9, which swelled to 3.80 in 2018.

Perez, though, has long hung his hat on his knack for inducing the ground ball. Indeed, his 50.9% career grounder rate ranks 12th among all starters with at least 700 IP from 2012-18, aided in large part by a heavy sinker that hasn’t much slowed down despite recent-season struggles. His worm-burning tendencies, too, have helped him keep the ball in play – a 0.96 career HR/9 (even with last season’s 1.69 homer-per-nine anomaly) ranks, when adjusting for the homer-happy confines of Arlington’s Globe Life Park, as one of the league’s best of the decade, and should play very well within a park around which the club has a tailored a lineup heavy on right-handed power.

2018 was an awful one for Perez, as the lefty posted career worsts in walk rate, HR/9, ERA (6.22) and FIP (5.72). He was demoted to the bullpen in late summer, where he still struggled with command, eventually making his $7.5MM option a foregone rejection. Both Steamer and ZiPS though, remain mostly on board, with the former projecting a 4.48 FIP and the latter a 4.51, each of which rated around league-average in the decidedly hitter-friendly environs of Texas.

Perez will join a right-hand heavy rotation that includes Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, and the rehabbing Michael Pineda, and figures to have inside track for the rotation’s fifth and final spot at current. Lefties Stephen Gonsalves and Adalberto Mejia will contend, and the club could also look to Zack Littell, Kohl Stewart, or Fernando Romero, should injuries surface.

Dodgers Interested In A.J. Pollock

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Free agent outfielder A.J. Pollock is a “target” for the Dodgers, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who adds the two sides are “in discussions.”

Los Angeles, which values balance, flexibility, and the platoon advantage perhaps as much as any team in baseball, currently finds itself with a dearth of right-handed options at play. There’s Justin Turner, of course, but the switch-hitting Yasmani Grandal has left, and the club sent Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp away in a December swap with the Reds, leaving Chris Taylor and the Austin Barnes/Russell Martin duo as the only other penciled-in regulars who hit from the right side. IF/OF Enrique Hernandez demonstrated, for the first time, an ability to produce against same-side arms last year, but the 27-year-old’s meager .221/.288/.377 (82 wRC+) career line vs. righties isn’t likely to suffuse the aggregate-loving front office with much hope.

Though the team’s lefties – Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, and Max Muncy among them – rank as arguably the premier crop in the league, the team was often exposed against southpaws last season, especially late in games, or when facing a bullpen-heavy staff, and can’t hope to always rely on a platoon carousel around the diamond. Indeed, LA’s 2018 bunch was among the worst ever in late-game situations, speculatively owing to its limited bench options in crunch time, given the team’s propensity to hunt for opposite-side advantages in the middle innings.

Pollock, then, offers the perfect antidote, though perhaps not at the right price. As the premier center-fielder on the market, the 31-year-old remains in protracted limbo after early-offseason demands were deemed too high by a number of interested clubs. Recent demands are nebulous, though many have speculated the oft-injured outfielder may be forced to settle for a short-term, high-AAV deal, which would seem to place him right up any number of alleys in Los Angeles.

In his last two, injury-marred campaigns, Pollock’s offensive output has slipped considerably from his 2014-15 peak, when he delivered back-to-back 130 or higher wRC+ seasons. His center-field defense, however, has remained plus, at least per DRS, but he’s swiftly approaching the age at which even generational talents begin to experience a rapid diminishment in their ability to chase down fly balls. The Dodgers, under president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman, aren’t a team that will tolerate age-related decline in any facet, so any long-term deal with Los Angeles may be predicated on the 31-year-old eventually agreeing to move to a corner spot.

How such a signing would impact LA’s ostensible interest in Bryce Harper is unclear, but the club, which has run far away from massive free agent demands under the current regime, wouldn’t figure to be in play for both.

NL Notes: Rockies, Cardinals, Ozuna, Gregerson, Braves

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The latest from the National League . . .

  • Following Thursday’s departure of reliever Adam Ottavino to New York, the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders spoke with GM Jeff Bridich about the state of affairs in the team’s bullpen. On the heels of last offseason’s months-long reliever binge, which saw the club devote nearly a third of its payroll space to the most fickle asset in the game, Colorado apparently couldn’t save room for dessert. The club didn’t offer Ottavino a contract, preferring instead to take its chances with the current crop: “We need last year’s decisions to pitch better than they did in 2018,” said Bridich. “It’s not a lack of talent or a sudden inability to perform well. But they need to do a better job.” Bryan Shaw, Mike Dunn, and Jake McGee, though, did exhibit a sudden inability to perform well, as the trio combined for an ugly -0.7 fWAR in 118 combined IP. Wade Davis, too, was hardly himself in ’18, stranding just 66.9% of baserunners – down from an MLB-best 87.5% from 2014-17 – en route to his lowest career output. Scott Oberg, who began the year in AAA despite being arguably being the team’s most effective pre-spree reliever, again paced the returning bunch, limiting homers at an elite rate and continuing to maintain a stellar walk rate.
  • President of baseball operations John Mozeliak provided injury updates on two key Cardinals during a Saturday chat with Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Outfielder Marcell Ozuna, who was bothered all season by a nagging shoulder injury that ultimately required surgery, hasn’t yet begun throwing, and the club “isn’t sure” if he’s taken hacks in the cage, either. Ozuna has spurned treatment at the club’s spring facility in favor of offseason rehab in his native Dominican Republic, which Mozeliak deemed “not ideal,” but the 28-year-old outfielder, who heavily regressed toward his established mean last season after a breakout 2017, has expressed no reservations about his outlook for the upcoming season. Reliever Luke Gregerson, who was limited to just 12 1/3 IP last season after a shoulder injury of his own, “hasn’t felt right” in offseason workouts, and the club isn’t anticipating much from him in Spring Training. The soon-to-be 35-year-old Gregerson has endured one of the game’s heaviest reliever workloads since debuting in 2009, accruing a staggering 611 IP over that span, and appearing in an MLB-high 623 games from 2009-17.
  • Per GM Alex Anthopoulos (h/t to the Atlanta Journal Constitution’s Gabe Burns on Twitter), the Braves have made an outfield acquisition their top priority at current, and a move “may be resolved soon.” The club, of course, has been linked to still-available A.J. Pollock (who would cost the team a second-round draft pick if signed) and the recently-departed Nick Markakis to fill its vacancy at one outfield spot. With an overflow of starting pitching talent in the upper minors, the team seems better positioned than almost any to fill its hole via trade, but has thus far shown little interest in doing so. The Blue Jay version of Anthopoulos was an ardent mover of minor-league assets, shuffling talent in all directions when circumstances dictated, but has been far more cautious in his short time with Atlanta. With a still-unsettled rotation mix, perhaps this strategy is prudent, but distancing his club from the ravenous NL East pack will almost surely require a return to old ways for the young Braves GM.

Quick Hits: Padres, Red Sox, Cubs

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The Padres have done a tremendous job in recent years growing the top farm system in the game, but the organization underwent a financial reshaping that was just as important to long-term stability, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Mired in the debt inherited from previous owner John Moores, Executive Chairman Ron Fowler led the charge in two important ways: refinancing the debt (thereby lowering interest rates and freeing up money to funnel into baseball ops), and opening the organization’s spending ledger to the public – an uncommon degree of transparency for an MLB club. Acee’s entire article is well worth a read as it paints a fairly complete picture of San Diego’s battle to build a winning franchise that is also fiscally sustainable. Essentially, the Padres followed the structural rebuilding approach popularized by Theo Epstein in Chicago: improve fan experience with additions/renovations to the ballpark while pouring roster resources into the acquisition and development of amateur and international talent. Epstein’s focus on improving the ballpark itself was a strategy he employed in Boston with Fenway Park, and again with Wrigley Field in Chicago. Speaking of…

  • The Red Sox are treading awfully close to the penalty-inducing $246MM tax threshold, and Masslive.com’s Christopher Smith wonders if that might be why they didn’t make a push to sign reliever Adam Ottavino. Dave Dombrowski has said there’s no mandate from ownership to avoid the highest tax bracket – but that’s still the goal. It’s easy to wonder why the Red Sox haven’t made more of a push to reinforce the back end of their bullpen, but it’s not totally fair to assume Ottavino was available to them for $9MM a year, as merely matching the Yankees offer doesn’t steal the contract like a white elephant gift. Still, with Joe Kelly in LA and Craig Kimbrel twisting in the wind, there is a surprising lack of urgency to add to the current stable of arms in the bullpen, especially considering the narrow margin for error in the AL East.
  • Much has been made of the Cubs lack of activity this winter as well, burnished by Theo Epstein’s early-offseason assertion that the offense was broken. Owner Tom Ricketts, however, doesn’t see any room for an addition in the lineup, writes the Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. Considering the overall youth of their core and the injuries that limited star Kris Bryant to 102 games last season, Epstein and Ricketts might both be right. The team clearly isn’t willing to give up on Jason Heyward yet, so you can pencil him into the starting spot in right, with Ian Happ in center and Ben Zobrist at second, Albert Almora Jr., Addison Russell, David Bote and Daniel Descalso make up the remaining bench unit, ostensibly filling the roster. Outside of fringe roster types, the Cubs offense might be a one-man-in, one-man-out situation for the rest of the winter.
  • There’s cause enough to be concerned about the Cubs offense in 2019, certainly, between Russell’s suspension, Zobrist’s age, and Willson Contreras’ obvious exhaustion near the end of last season, but internally, there’s much to be excited about. At the Cubs Convention this week, Bryant and Epstein both talked up new hitting coach Anthony Iopace, whom Epstein calls “the ultimate fox-hole guy,” per Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter). As the Cubs former minor league hitting coordinator, he has a rapport with many Cubs hitters already and should be able to hit the ground running. Bryant, for one, is excited about a new season under the infectious energy of “’Poce,” per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian. The Cubs brain trust appear firm in their belief that tinkering of internal processes is all the team needs to bounce back from a “disappointing” 95-win season and challenge for the top spot in the NL Central once again.

MLBTR Poll: The State Of The Indians Bullpen

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Cody Allen will be closing games for the Los Angeles Angels next season, but the long-time fixture of the Cleveland bullpen may still add some value to the Indians’ 2019 bullpen: as a scout. It was Allen who first brought Jon Edwards to the attention of the Cleveland front office after working out at the same facility as the right-hander, per the Athletic’s Zack Meisel. Edwards, 30, made 9 appearances for the Indians last season after making his way back to the game, missing all of 2017 and almost leaving baseball altogether. Now Edwards is one of the arms that manager Tito Francona will turn to as the Indians’ bullpen tries to make up for the loss of both Allen and Andrew Miller in free agency.

The glass half-full approach might look at the 2.9 WAR totaled by the Indians bullpen in 2018 and say there’s not all that much room to make up. Still, the bullpen unit earned 6.9 WAR in 2017 after fueling the Indians’ World Series run in 2016, and they’ve helped spark an evolution of the bullpen league-wide. It’s an uncertain unit this time around, with Edwards, Adam Cimber, Nick Goody, Dan Otero, Neil Ramirez and Tyler Olson the most established arms set to pitch in front of closer Brad Hand. Former starters Danny Salazar and Cody Anderson may get the Collin McHugh treatment if they can get healthy this season and contribute as McHugh did for the Astros last year. Salazar is a particularly interesting wrinkle as his career 10.51 K/9 could move even higher in shorter stints out of the pen. He was a top-3 pitcher in their rotation before getting injured. Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber may have usurped his spot in the rotation, but Salazar has the opportunity to be an impact arm where Cleveland needs the help most. 

Newly-acquired youngsters Jefry Rodriguez and Chih-Wei Hu have added to the organization’s overall depth, and they’ll compete with veteran castoffs like James Hoyt, Justin Grimm, and A.J. Cole to claim the open spots in Cleveland’s pen. It’s a long season, and just as often as a veteran bullpener falls apart, a new stud develops out of nowhere. There’s a case to be made that the Indians collection of arms is more than enough to put together a dominant bullpen, it’s just unclear which 7-10 names are most likely to be a part of it. The Indians may feel that the risk of paying significant money to tired, veteran arms isn’t any more risky than relying on a large group of high-end hopefuls to develop confidence and dependability in the nine months from when pitchers and catchers report in February to the playoffs in October. There’s high-end potential in the names above, and they have another reason to be optimistic as well: top prospect Triston McKenzie has risen steadily through the system, and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that the 21-year-old could be ready for an Adam Wainwright/David Price style call up if he continues to succeed in Triple A. 

Francona may cull together a functional group from the arms already in-house, but no matter how you slice it, it’s a far cry from the back-end dependability the AL Central champs have leaned on throughout this current run atop the division. There are other issues at hand for the Indians as well, who are facing a significant amount of roster churn. There’s a leadership void to fill around Francisco Lindor, and it’s unclear at this time who will step up, per Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes. Lindor certainly has the talent to be “the guy” in the clubhouse, but it’s tough for the best on-field producer to also shoulder the load of managing the clubhouse as a lone sheriff. Allen has been a big-time leader in the bullpen, and Rajai Davis a vocal veteran leader who will no longer be with the club as well. They may have more of a fight on their hands for the AL Central crown too, as the Twins added a ton of right-handed power as they look to rebound, and the White Sox rebuild is nearing a crescendo.

Even if they capture their fourth straight division title, the Indians will have a tough time surviving the playoff gauntlet in a top-heavy American League if they don’t get some reliability and shutdown firepower from their bullpen. The Yankees have not been shy about investing heavily in their bullpen for a couple of seasons, and the rest of the league is starting to follow suit, but as of right now, the Indians, as well as some other contenders like the Red Sox and Cubs, are holding steady with the arms they’ve got in-house. In the past it’s been unwise to invest in the bullpen, an area of notoriously fickle year-to-year performance, but the tide has turned and the Indians run the risk of seeming painfully out-of-step. The rotation remains stacked, but given that it only took one year, $8.5MM for LA to lock down Allen, it’s fair to wonder if the Indians are playing a little too fast and loose with their bullpen.

How do you feel about the current state of the Indians pen? (Link for app users).

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