Tim Dierkes' MLB Mailbag

This week's mailbag gets into whether Kyle Tucker will sign a shorter-term deal, options for the Rays at catcher, the trade value of controllable Mariners starters, the Tigers' offseason thus far, Dustin May's potential impact with the Cardinals, and much more.

Dave asks:

At this point do you think Kyle Tucker will take a high AAV deal — example: 5 years $250 million with opt outs after years 2 and 4?

I'm writing this on December 17th, and I don't think we're at that point with Tucker.  It's true that long-term free agent deals usually happen in December.  The last free agent deal of 8+ years that didn't happen in December was Bryce Harper in March 2019, with his 13-year deal coming a few weeks after Manny Machado's ten-year pact.

Eric Hosmer got an eight-year deal in February 2018, and Prince Fielder signed for nine years in January 2012.

That's about it, though, so if we get to the new year without a Tucker deal, the odds start shifting toward a shorter term.

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This week's mailbag gets into the Mets' offseason thus far, Craig Breslow's tenure atop Boston's front office, the Munetaka Murakami situation, how an expansion draft works, the Cubs' anti-deferral policy, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s trade value, and much more.

Ed asks:

I'm finding it hard to understand the Mets thinking. I'm scratching my head about the Marcus Semien/ Brandon Nimmo trade. I asked my friend who's a big Mets fan (his last name is Metz) what he thought and he responded that it depends on what outfielder they replace Nimmo with. I told him that unless they break the bank on Kyle Tucker its not going to be a clear upgrade. I'd say Cody Bellinger is an slight upgrade but after looking at their numbers its amazing how similar Bellinger and Nimmo are offensively and I don't see Cody putting up as good numbers in Citi Field.

Then I heard they are shopping Senga, instead of signing Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez to compliment Senga they are looking to move on all together. Again I think both Framber and Ranger are probably a little better than Senga but if you sign one of them and keep Senga he becomes your # 2 which he is much better suited for.

I believe last year was more of a fluke for Devin Williams than the new norm, but would rather have Diaz, especially since William's problem might have been that he just can't handle the New York limelight. The Mets are now going with Williams as closer unless they resign Diaz and yes it probably closes the door on Diaz unless they want to invest over $100 million on two back end of the bullpen guys.

Just curious what you think of these moves. Do you feel the Mets will be stronger in the OF, Starting and Relief pitching in 2026?

Abner asks:

As a NY Mets fan I would love to see a late innings duo of Edwin Díaz & Devin Williams. But knowing how does David Stearns operate, how realistic is the Mets signing Díaz with Williams already in the fold? Will they look for cheaper options getting a guy like Tyler Rogers and/or Emilio Pagán to be the setup man while Williams is the closer? If they decide to invest heavily in Williams and Díaz, does that mean that they will not invest in an ace for the starting rotation this offseason? Thanks in advance.

On the Nimmo/Semien trade, I agree with Ed's friend.  So far, we've seen a portion of the Mets' offseason puzzle.  It's not close to being complete.

At age 33, Nimmo projects as roughly a 2.5 WAR player next year.  It's true that the free agent market is light on outfielders who are capable of that, beyond Tucker and Bellinger.  But it's also true that 34 MLB outfielders were worth 2.5+ WAR this year, including several few saw coming.  And that doesn't account for platoons that combined for 2.5 WAR-type value.

There's also collapse risk with the 33-year-old Nimmo, who is under contract through 2030.  Let's take a quick look at the last five years and see how many 33-year-old outfielders were worth 2.5+ WAR:

• 2025: 2 (Aaron Judge at 33, George Springer at 35)
• 2024: 0
• 2023: 1 (Kevin Kiermaier at 33)
• 2022: 2 (Starling Marte and Mark Canha at 33 - both Mets!)
• 2021: 2 (AJ Pollock at 33, Darin Ruf at 34)

Nimmo's track record is very good, and a projection system is not going to project him to fall off a cliff after a 3-WAR season.  But outfield is a young man's game, and you can see how rare good seasons are at 33+.  With Nimmo, this could be a case of the old adage about trading a player a year too early rather than a year too late.  So I don't mind subtracting a player who probably won't age well, saving some money long-term and bringing in a second baseman with strong defense.  That's not to say Semien doesn't have his own collapse risk at 35, but his speed and defense are holding strong.

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This week's mailbag gets into the Grayson Rodriguez-Taylor Ward trade, the four accepted qualifying offers, the trade value of Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu, and much more.

Nick asks:

Hi, what is Mike Elias thinking selling low on Grayson? Ward is a good, not great, hitter, and Rodriguez's ceiling is an ace. You guys have been calling for a Singer-Ward swap and I feel like 4 years of Rodriguez, even with his injuries, would have way more value than one year of Singer.

Zach asks:

For real, what's with trading Grayson Rodriguez?!?

In making this trade, Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias made a big bet against Rodriguez.

When the Orioles drafted Rodriguez 11th overall out of high school in 2018, the club was a few months away from replacing Dan Duquette with Elias as the head of baseball operations.  So Elias wasn't involved with that pick, but he is intimately familiar with Rodriguez's career and health history.

Once one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, Rodriguez's injuries began with a 2022 Grade 2 lat strain that cost him three months and pushed back his expected Major League debut.  He was healthy in 2023, had some success in the Majors, and totaled 165 innings - the only time in his career he's topped 117 frames.

Rodriguez missed 19 days with shoulder inflammation in May 2024, and then saw his season end that year on July 31st due to what was initially called a mild lat strain.  No one could've guessed that quality start against the Blue Jays would close the book on Rodriguez's Orioles career before his 25th birthday.

The big righty supposedly entered 2025 without restrictions, and claimed he wasn't hurt when his velocity was down in spring training.  But in March he was diagnosed with elbow inflammation, compounded in April by another "mild lat strain."  It was initially thought Rodriguez would return in the second half, but he experienced elbow discomfort while rehabbing and was shut down.  After multiple opinions were gathered, Rodriguez's 2025 season ended with right elbow debridement surgery on August 11th.

As Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun reported, Elias described Rodriguez's health this way at the end of September: "There’s nothing medically to suggest that he won’t be ready, and he’s very determined and not happy about what happened last year."  Elias expressed some caution but ultimately said, "I am bullish on the situation."  The procedure involved removing bone chips from Rodriguez's elbow.

Rodriguez spoke to reporters yesterday.  Here's an excerpt from Jeff Fletcher of the OC Register:

"Rodriguez said he is “absolutely” confident that he can pitch a full season this year. He said the bone spurs had been an issue for “three or four years,” and he believes that they led to the lat injuries. “Just being able to get those out of there, my arm feels great right now throwing,” Rodriguez said. “There’s really no question for me to be ready for spring training.”"

I'm searching for an explanation why the pitching-needy Orioles would trade a pre-arbitration mid-rotation type starter with 238 2/3 pretty good big league innings to his name and four years of team control remaining for one year of what looks like, at best, a 2.5 WAR outfielder.

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This week's mailbag gets into Orioles starting pitcher targets, whether the Tigers have championship core pieces beyond Tarik Skubal, many hypothetical trade scenarios, and much more.

Tim asks:

I appreciate all the work you put into the Top 50 Free Agent list, as well as the Top 40 Trade Candidates list. My question is: do you really expect the Orioles to pursue any top of the rotation pitchers? I have a hard time believing Mike Elias will pursue such pitchers via Free Agency, as evidenced by his risk-averse history. Please calm my fears that we'll have a repeat of last offseason's lackluster moves.

Ben asks:

After their tepid foray into the starting pitching market last year (Sugano, Morton, Gibson) yielded less than stellar results, do you see Baltimore adjusting their approach on the starting pitching market by targeting more high-end arms? If so, do you think a trade or free agent signing is more likely?

These questions work well together, because we're trying to guess whether Elias will repeat his over-cautious approach to the rotation, or learn from it.

The Orioles were in on all the big names last offseason, but apparently didn't like the prices on any of them.  By January 3rd, the Orioles had committed to Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton.  The only good starting pitcher remaining on the market at that point was Nick Pivetta.

Part of Elias' folly was reliance on Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin.  Injuries have pretty much been constant throughout Rodriguez's big league career.  Eflin had a run of good health from 2023-24, but he was also dealing with chronic knee and back pain.  While he'd pitched really well for the Orioles in nine regular season starts in '24, his success was mostly about strike-throwing.

I've written before in this space that holding on to a well-regarded prospect who ultimately does not pan out is just as bad as trading one who does.  Elias is not exactly going to get fired for holding on to Heston Kjerstad or Coby Mayo last winter, but you have to wonder whether Garrett Crochet or Jesus Luzardo could've become Orioles.  The Orioles gave up Joey Ortiz and DL Hall to get Corbin Burnes, but didn't take a similar chance last winter.

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MLBTR's annual Top 50 Free Agents list comes out Thursday evening!  We'll also be launching our free agent prediction contest at that time.

This week's subscriber mailbag covers possible Freddy Peralta and Sonny Gray trades, how the 2026-27 lockout might affect free agency this winter, where Bo Bichette will sign if not Toronto, the chances the Dodgers land Kyle Tucker, and how the Cubs will approach the loss of Tucker as well as a rotation upgrade.

Morris asks:

What would a realistic trade with Milwaukee for Freddy Peralta look like for the Braves? While I would love to see Cease in a Braves' uni, I think he may get a much better deal elsewhere with Atlanta's seeming insistence on being "logical" with every free agent (cue Friedman's famous quote). Milwaukee has a penchant for really getting something extra out of pitchers, and Peralta is a finished product who will be too expensive for them to keep much longer. Would something like Bryce Elder (Milwaukee could absolutely figure out how to make him better), a top-15 pitching prospect, and a top-30 position-player-prospect get the deal done?

At one point in our free agent deliberations, we had Dylan Cease signing a three-year, $93MM deal with two opt-outs.  We were having a bit of a hard time giving Cease the long-term contract he's likely seeking, mostly because of his 4.55 ERA.  For the most part, we've gotten past those reservations and expect Cease to sign for perhaps seven years, as Aaron Nola did coming off a 4.46 regular season mark.

It should be noted that the Braves were competitive in the bidding for Nola, so we can't completely rule out Alex Anthopoulos going long for the Georgia-native Cease.  But it's also true that in eight years atop the Braves' front office, Anthopoulos' biggest free agent deal in both years and dollars was Marcell Ozuna's four-year, $65MM pact in February 2021.  I agree that Cease feels unlikely in Atlanta.

On September 30th, Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote, "The Braves could use another reliable veteran — someone in the mold of Charlie Morton as a pitcher who can provide steadiness, leadership and consistent innings."  The thinking is that with Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Spencer Strider locked in, the Braves need reliability more than they need a front of the rotation guy.  In my Top 50 picks, I've got the Braves signing Chris Bassitt.  I also find the idea of a paid-down Sonny Gray acquisition to be plausible.

But there's nothing that precludes Anthopoulos from thinking bigger and renting Peralta for a year, regardless of whether they can eventually extend him.

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This week's mailbag gets into Pete Alonso alternatives for the Mets, why many assume the Tigers won't sign Tarik Skubal, whether the Nationals will try to make a leap forward in 2026, and more.

Steve asks:

How long will the Mets give Boras and Pete Alonso to decide if they want to re-sign before shifting their focus to other first basemen, whether it be through a trade or signing?

The Mets have to make a series of decisions:

• Do they want Alonso at all?  The answer would have to be yes, even accounting for being locked into some poor defense in 2026 at either first base or right field, since Alonso and Juan Soto can't both DH.  And perhaps Soto can improve his defense.
• If yes, what's the maximum term?  Last winter, the Mets seemed to prefer three years, but there was probably an amount/opt-out combo where they would've done four years.  If David Stearns tells Boras, "There is no scenario where the Mets sign Pete for four-plus years," then perhaps both parties can have an early answer as to whether the fit is viable.
• If Alonso and the Mets are both willing to do a three or four-year deal, where do opt-outs fit in?  These are obviously not great for the team, because if Alonso's production tanks in the course of the deal, they're stuck with him.

On October 1st, I wrote that Alonso will be seeking at least five years, and therefore the Mets should just let him walk.  I still feel that way, but if there are three or four-year scenarios, the Mets should at least entertain those early on.

On October 14th, I ran through the four different 30+ home run first basemen Stearns found in his seven-year tenure with the Brewers.  But let's look at that differently and see where the Brewers ranked in first baseman WAR while Stearns was in charge:

• 2016: 10th
• 2017: 6th
• 2018: 7th
• 2019: 14th
• 2020: 14th
• 2021: 27th
• 2022: 18th

Now consider that with Alonso as the Mets' first baseman under Stearns, the team ranked 12th in 2024 and 7th this year.

The difference is that the Mets expect more certainty than the Brewers, because as Brewers GM Stearns was not given a budget that allowed for signing a $30MM-ish first baseman.

So while it's easy to say that Stearns should just go find the next Jesus Aguilar, he can't (or perhaps shouldn't) really run the risk of something like 2021, where the Brewers had some of the worst first base production in the game with Daniel Vogelbach, Keston Hiura, and Rowdy Tellez.

What are the Alonso alternatives?

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This week's mailbag includes questions on Tarik Skubal, Nick Castellanos, Ian Happ, Pablo Lopez, and much more.

Abner asks:

The Tarik Skubal trade rumors dominated the news during the past weekend. The NY Mets has been mentioned as a possible destination for the Detroit Tigers' ace. But what would be a realistic prospect capital cost the Mets will have to live with if they really want to get a guy as talented as Skubal (even for just 1 year of team control)? Now, Freddy Peralta could also be available in the trade market, and he for sure should be a more affordable option than Skubal. Knowing the way David Stearns values the farm system of the team and his connection with the Brewers, which trade has more probability to get done , a trade for Peralta or a trade for Skubal? Thanks in advance.

There's never been any indication Skubal and the Tigers were close on a contract extension, nor is there a sign the team's willingness to trade him has changed.  Steve Adams and I differ on the likelihood of an offseason trade happening.  In a discussion last week, Steve pegged the chances of a Skubal trade this winter at 0.25%.  I'm more in the range of 5-10%.

Steve wrote in his live chat yesterday, "I think the Tigers would be crazy to truly make Skubal available. They’re just not going to be better in 2026 without him, regardless of the return, unless you’re just banking on Skubal getting hurt. He’s the best pitcher in baseball (sorry, Paul Skenes, but you can be No. 2 for now). I would absolutely just ride out the year and try to sign him in free agency. The draft pick after the first round isn’t nothing, and if the Tigers are earnest about being in a World Series window right now, then trading Skubal isn’t something I’d spend much time entertaining. Let teams make the crazy offers, sure, but they’d have to be offered something outrageous to consider it."

My stance is that I can't peer into the mind of Tigers owner Christopher Ilitch.  Some owners do trade superstar players in the offseason before their walk year if they determine they cannot sign him.  We've seen it with Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and others.  I think Steve might say that Skubal is different from those players, the teams are in somewhat different spots, and/or their owners had different philosophies.

I find Skubal unlikely to be traded this winter, but it wouldn't shock me.

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This week's mailbag gets into Pete Alonso's reported contract demand, the Tigers and Tarik Skubal, possible Trent Grisham suitors, and much more.

Chris asks:

Alonso saying he is seeking a 7 year deal is essentially him saying that he's out of Queens. So if you're Stearns, is the play to go all out for Murakami? Short-term on a Josh Naylor? Or give the keys to Clifford, strengthen up elsewhere like CF, 3B, DH to supplement the offense now you don't have Pete? Or just really go all in on your "Run Prevention" Plan, go get a Skubal or Skenes, sign Valdez or Cease and fortify the defense. There's a lot of questions for the Mets who honestly feel like they are only a few pieces for being a legit World Series Contender again.

Abner asks:

Pete Alonso is asking for a 7 year deal (he will be 31 by the beginning of next season) and David Stearns does not like that type of commitment for players in the wrong side of the 30's. It is known that the Mets are showing interest in NPB player Munetaka Murakami who is a slugger in Japan, but is not yet proven against MLB pitching. Murakami also comes with some concerns (poor plate discipline/not excel with defense), but based on recent Japanese stars that have come to MLB (Roki Sasaki/Yoshinobu Yamamoto/Seiya Suzuki) we could expect him to command a longer and more expensive deal than the one Alonso is looking for. Additionally, there will be no other first basemen of that same caliber available in this offseason free agency class. So, how feasible for the Mets would be to get a deal done with Pete Alonso and how that deal would look like? Thanks in advance.

On Saturday, Mike Puma of the New York Post wrote, "Alonso, who turns 31 in December, is expected to seek a contract of at least seven years — a length consistent with deals the player’s agent, Scott Boras, completed in recent seasons for Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman at the same age (Chapman received a six-year extension from the Giants after his first season with the club on a different contract)."

Start with the fact that both of those comps are a major stretch for Alonso.

Semien did indeed sign a seven-year deal heading into his age-31 season.  This came off a monster 6-WAR campaign, Semien's second in three years.  Alonso has not even reached 4 WAR since he was a rookie.  The gap in defensive value on the two is enormous.  Semien was a Gold Glove second baseman who was also capable of playing shortstop.

Puma makes a case that Alonso's first base defense isn't as bad as the metrics suggest, because he's good at making scoops.  That may be true, but he's still a pretty clear net negative given what two completely different metrics, Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved, say.

More crucially, Semien was an up-the-middle player, not a first baseman who's expected to move to DH soon.  Semien's defensive abilities have sustained 2+ WAR value even as his offense has slipped below league average.  And Semien's seventh year, brought about by a level of free agent competition Alonso is unlikely to have, looks regrettable.

Chapman's deal was not signed on the open market.  It's a six-year extension covering age 32-37.  I suppose a case can be made that if a 32-year-old can get six years, a 31-year-old should get seven.  Like Semien, defense is a huge part of Chapman's game, making him a poor comp for Alonso.

The correct comps are other first basemen, plus designated hitters.  Modern GMs have clearly demonstrated they will not give first basemen and DHs long-term deals.  The fact that no one offered Alonso a good one last year was not entirely due to the qualifying offer.  It has been nearly four years since a free agent first baseman of any age signed for even five years.  That was Freddie Freeman getting six in March 2022.  Freeman clearly a better hitter than Alonso is.

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This week's mailbag gets into the Reds' offense, whether Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, and Jorge Polanco will stay with their respective clubs, trade targets for the Braves' rotation, and whether the Rangers could trade Jacob deGrom.

Bill asks:

What can the Cincinnati Reds possibly do to fix the mess that is their lineup? They need at least one big bat and probably do not have the money to accomplish that.

The Reds' offense ranked eighth in the NL with 4.42 runs scored per game.  Let's examine where the lineup stands after the Reds were eliminated by the Dodgers in the Wild Card round.

• C: Jose Trevino and Tyler Stephenson handled catching duties.
• 1B: Spencer Steer was the regular this year, but rookie Sal Stewart began taking starts after coming up in September.
• 2B: Matt McLain was the typical choice, with Gavin Lux starting occasionally.
• SS: Elly De La Cruz has the full-time job.
• 3B: Ke'Bryan Hayes took most starts, with a few going to Stewart.  Before Hayes was acquired, Santiago Espinal logged innings here.
• LF: Austin Hays was the top choice, followed by Lux and Will Benson.
• CF: TJ Friedl has the full-time job.
• RF: Noelvi Marte took over the starting job.  Jake Fraley spent time here before getting injured, and Benson was also in the mix.
• DH: Of late, it was a Lux/Miguel Andujar time share.  Hays also picked up a good number of ABs here.

No one on the Reds had a stellar offensive season.  Almost every regular fell between a 97 wRC+ and a 109 mark, with 100 being league average.  Where can improvements be found?

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