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Mariners Notes: Felix, Dipoto, Long

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The latest from Seattle….

  • With Felix Hernandez likely approaching the end of his days in a Mariners uniform, The Athletic’s Corey Brock (subscription required) took a look back at the right-hander’s often-outstanding career.  The piece covers Hernandez’s initial signing with the organization as a 16-year-old in 2002, noting that he rejected overtures from the Braves and Yankees because of his good relationship with Mariners scouts Pedro Avila, Bob Engle and Emilio Carrasquel.  From there, Hernandez cracked the big leagues by the time he was 19, and then embarked on almost a full decade as one of the sport’s best pitchers.  His production has slowed since he began his 30’s, however, due to both injuries and perhaps a hesitance to embrace changes to his conditioning and pitching repertoire.  Hernandez (who turns 34 next April) has indicated that he wants to pitch next season, though it’s hard to see him landing a Major League contract this offseason in the wake of a year that has seen him post a 6.31 ERA in 61 1/3 innings while spending over three months on the injured list.
  • At a recent town hall event for Mariners fans, GM Jerry Dipoto pointed towards 2021 as the potential turn-around date for the team’s rebuild, Larry Stone of the Seattle Times writes.  That said, Dipoto added “There is no scientific answer to the question. I can’t give you a decimal point or a dollar amount or a date and time when it’s all going to crest. But we feel like we’re building talent in a traditional way and we’re adding, let’s call it new, modern techniques of player development and player analysis that we feel make us a little bit different. You got to do something a little bit different in order to beat the teams that are out in front of us.”  Dipoto is known far more for his penchant for trades rather than big-ticket free agents, and the general manager hinted that this reluctance to fully dive into the free agent marketplace will continue even when the M’s have more payroll available.  “We don’t intend to go throw that [money] at the free-agent market, because quite frankly we’re not one player away, as you can see,” Dipoto said.
  • Shed Long is one of several young players who have been given a chance on the young Mariners this season, and Long is making a case for himself as an everyday player in 2020, Adam Jude of the Seattle Times writes.  With three more hits in today’s game against the Pirates, Long is now batting .284/.357/.466 over his first 129 career plate appearances, also filling a void for the M’s as a leadoff man.  It’s been an impressive rookie season for Long, even despite the fact that his Triple-A development was slowed by seven weeks on the IL with a broken finger.  While Long could bounce around the diamond between left field, third base, and second base, he has spent the bulk of time in Seattle as a second baseman, and could be the future at the position if the Mariners were to part ways with Dee Gordon this winter.

Mariners Activate Domingo Santana

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The Mariners announced that they have activated outfielder Domingo Santana from the 10-day injured list. He has missed about a month owing to an elbow injury.

While the M’s are obviously out of contention, they’ll be glad to allow Santana a chance to see some more MLB pitching before the season wraps up. The club surely hoped he’d be joined by Mitch Haniger, but that’s not to be.

Both outfielders had promising campaigns hijacked by injuries. In Santana’s case, he posted a strong .286/.354/.496 batting line over his first 399 trips to the plate this year. But he was bothered by elbow soreness out of the All-Star break and slashed just .131/.240/.250 thereafter before going on the shelf.

The Mariners will bring Santana along slowly upon his return. The hope seems to be that he’ll carry some positive momentum headed into the offseason. Santana will be due a raise on his $1.95MM arbitration salary, with one more arb-eligible campaign still to come in 2021. It’s possible the M’s will discuss Santana in trade talks, though he may hold greater value to the Seattle organization as an affordable part of the outfield rotation and potential 2020 deadline trade piece.

Three Needs: Seattle Mariners

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We’re bringing back our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ll start things up with the Mariners, who opened the season at a sprint before hitting the skids …

[Seattle Mariners Depth Chart]

1. Invest In A Starter Or Two

Seattle’s re-set effort has brought the payroll back under control and added some interesting young talent to the MLB mix. It’d be hard to say this is a club on the cusp of a breakout, but it’s not hard to imagine a major improvement over the 2019 showing.

That said, the rotation is entirely underwhelming. Marco Gonzales has been good, but the club dealt away its only other starter with even one full win above replacement for the season. There’s good reason to give Yusei Kikuchi more time to adjust to the majors; perhaps the club can throw Justus Sheffield into the staff and hope for the best. But slotting in marginal veterans behind openers can only do so much for a team. There’s a dire need for higher-end starting pitching.

With Felix Hernandez hitting the open market, there’s only $75MM and change on the Mariners’ books, with no enormous arbitration salaries to account for. The club shouldn’t rush to spend, but there’s certainly some cash to work with here for an organization that has had season-ending payrolls of over $170MM in each of the past three seasons.

This is a good offseason for a team in this position. The Rangers have scored by giving somewhat aggressive, but ultimately fairly low-risk three-year deals to starters Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. The Twins once did the same with Phil Hughes. That’s a strategy to consider along with the traditional pillow contract. There are quite a few interesting but not reliably dominant starters floating around on the market this coming winter — ranging from Tanner Roark and Dallas Keuchel to Jake Odorizzi and Zack Wheeler. Old friend Wade Miley is out there, along with names like Kyle Gibson, Rick Porcello, Michael Wacha, and Alex Wood.

2. Use Late-Inning Opportunities To Chase Bullpen Upside

The Mariners would like to rebound right back into competitiveness, so they’ll need to try to form an effective bullpen. At the same time, the aim is rather speculative at this point and the existing unit is all but devoid of established players in key late-inning roles, so it’d be foolhardy to spend wildly on veterans.

Therein lies the opportunity for Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto. With high-leverage spots entirely unclaimed, the M’s can dangle that opportunity — along with the prospect of pitching in one of the league’s stingier home parks — as a means of attracting high-upside bullpen talent. Dellin Betances and Arodys Vizcaino (actually a member of the M’s at the moment) are both intriguing possibilities, with a whole host of somewhat older veterans that could be targeted on the cheap.

3. Consider An Infield Upgrade

The M’s have interesting options in the outfield and behind the dish. They’ve also got quite a few possibilities in the 3-through-6 spots, but perhaps also some room to make an upgrade.

On the left side of the infield, Kyle Seager and J.P. Crawford ought to be in line for the bulk of the work. Dylan Moore probably showed enough promise to serve as the reserve there. He can also factor on the right side of the infield, but that’s where there seems to be greater opportunity.

Dan Vogelbach is a piece of the puzzle in the first base/DH mix, but the club clearly prefers to utilize him as a bat-only player and he fell off hard in the second half. It’s anyone’s guess how Ryon Healy will bounce back from his health woes, so he can’t be relied upon. Austin Nola has been a nice surprise, but it would be hard to assume that the career minor-leaguer will hit enough to warrant significant time at first base. Prospect Evan White is on the rise, adding a righty bat to the mix, but it remains to be seen when and how he’ll transition to the majors. And then there’s veteran second bagger Dee Gordon, who is still a useful player but doesn’t seem likely to return to league-average hitting and shouldn’t be trotted out as a regular.

There are two ways to view this assemblage: as a potentially intriguing array of quality parts that can be maximized by deft deployment, or as an underwhelming outfit of unspectacular talent. No doubt the answer lies somewhere in the middle; to some extent, the Mariners will want to find out by testing. But the trouble with mixing and matching is that you can only do so much of it before running into roster limitations.

Adding a true, everyday piece at first or second base — especially if the M’s aren’t totally sold on White’s ability to become such a player in the immediate future — would greatly improve the overall outlook of the Seattle position-player mix. Perhaps the club could pursue Didi Gregorius and move him or Crawford to second base. Maybe the still-youthful Jonathan Schoop is worth a decent investment. The trade market could well be fruitful.

It’s not entirely clear at this stage just how appealing the options will be. And the M’s have a case for holding pat on the whole in the position-player mix. But that’s a nice back-up plan to take into the offseason while pursuing a significant improvement.

Domingo Santana Set To Return On Tuesday

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  • Another early-season star will also return to the field before the end of the season, as Domingo Santana is expected to be activated off the IL on Tuesday, MLB.com’s Greg Johns writes.  The Mariners outfielder was (retroactively) placed on the IL due to right elbow inflammation on August 19, after struggling with elbow problems for roughly a month beforehand.  Santana’s injury problems almost perfectly coincide with the All-Star break, as he hit .286/.354/.496 in 399 first-half plate appearances, but then only .131/.240/.250 in 97 PA in the second half.  That July slump was one of the reasons Santana wasn’t dealt at the trade deadline, despite interest from multiple teams.

Mariners Set Record For Most Players Used In Single Season

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  • The Mariners have set something of an ignoble record in 2019, as Cut4’s Jake Mintz & Jordan Shusterman point out that Seattle has given playing time to an all-time-high 67 players this season (link). While many around baseball are giving attention to the litany of home run records being broken this year, manager Scott Servais and GM Jerry Dipoto have arguably accomplished a much more impressive feat in managing such a revolving door of a clubhouse.

Early Trade Deadline Re-Assessment: AL West

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It has only been a little over five weeks, so it’s too soon to judge with finality how this year’s trade deadline maneuvers will play out. That said, we’re already half of the way through the period — the regular season portion, at least — for which rental players were acquired. Even players with future control are usually added first and foremost for their immediate contributions (though there are some exceptions). It’d be awfully premature to say anything conclusive about the prospect side of any deals, but we do now have some additional information with which to work.

So, that’s why we’re going to take a glance back over our shoulders at the moves (and major non-moves) that organizations made in the run-up to this year’s trade deadline. We already covered the AL Central, NL Central, AL East, and NL East. Now we’ll head out west, starting with the American League …

Astros

The runaway division leaders were already setting up for the postseason at this summer’s trade deadline. As has now become customary, GM Jeff Luhnow pulled a rabbit out of his hat. He came through this year with the summer’s biggest blockbuster.

The Astros’ acquisition of veteran righty Zack Greinke seemingly came out of nowhere, breaking at the last possible moment. But how does it look at this early stage? The 35-year-old Greinke hasn’t been quite as good as he had been in Arizona, but he’s certainly getting the job done as hoped. Through seven starts, he carries a 3.32 ERA. On the prospect side, we haven’t learned much that we didn’t know already. Corbin Martin is still early in his Tommy John recovery, while J.B. Bukauskas only made two starts after the swap. Seth Beer did struggle upon moving to the Snakes’ Double-A affiliate, slashing .205/.297/.318 in 101 plate appearances, though that only puts a bit of a damper on a promising overall campaign. Infielder Josh Rojas, the least-hyped player involved, went on an unreal tear at Triple-A to earn a call-up. He’s holding his own (.250/.337/.382) through 86 MLB plate appearances.

That one will take longer to assess, particularly with regard to what was lost for the Houston org. That’s also true of the team’s other big deal, though in that case the initial results have been a dud for all involved. The Astros were clearly positioned to utilize outfielder Derek Fisher as a trade asset with little need for him, so turned him into a buy-low opportunity on Aaron Sanchez, who came over with reliever Joe Biagini from the Blue Jays. Fisher has not been hitting in Toronto, but the ’Stros have also not gotten anything close to what they might’ve hoped from their side of this bargain. Sanchez tantalized with a gem of an outing but couldn’t sustain it and ended up requiring shoulder surgery (the full details of which remain unclear). Biagini has not thrived after making changes to his repertoire, having now allowed a dozen earned runs and six long balls with a miserable 9:7 K/BB ratio over 13 2/3 innings.

The other MLB piece added has worked out quite nicely. The Astros brought back veteran backstop Martin Maldonado for another run. Acquired for his defense, he has also provided a whopping .246/.319/.585 hitting output over 72 plate appearances. It has been quite the opposite experience for the Cubs, who added utilityman Tony Kemp in the deal. Kemp has just nine base knocks (two for extras) in his 64 trips to the plate with Chicago.

Houston’s other deals were of the roster-clearing variety. The club sent out backstop Max Stassi to make way for Maldonado. Stassi has managed just three hits in 49 trips to the plate with the Angels; it’s still anyone’s guess whether the Astros have anything in the very young outfielders (Rainier Rivas and Raider Uceta) acquired in the deal. Neither do the ’Stros miss Tyler White, who struggled with the Dodgers before getting hurt after being sent there following a DFA. The young reliever added in that deal, Andre Scrubb, continued to show much the same results as before the swap. He ended his season with 64 2/3 Double-A innings of 2.78 ERA pitching with 10.6 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9.

Athletics

To the surprise of nobody, the A’s went for arms over the summer. While the club was rightly pleased with its overall position-player mix, there was an obvious dearth of talent in the staff — the rotation, in particular.

First came Homer Bailey, who held particular appeal since he’d cost only the league-minimum salary. (The Dodgers owe the rest of the tab on Bailey’s extension.) The 33-year-old has eaten innings as advertised, with a 4.98 ERA and 50:11 K/BB ratio over 56 frames. Oakland can’t really have hoped for much more. Infielder Kevin Merrell had been struggling when he was sent to K.C. in the deal and continued to do so after, slashing just .235/.278/.313 in 176 Double-A plate appearances.

The A’s have had much better results from the other starter they picked up, Tanner Roark, who was added in exchange for outfield prospect Jameson Hannah. While his peripherals look much like those of Bailey, Roark has held opposing teams to 3.40 earned runs per nine in his 42 1/3 frames over seven starts. Hannah — like Merrell, one of the team’s loftier recent draft choices — trended down after changing uniforms. He slashed just .224/.325/.299 in 78 trips to the plate at the High-A level.

Oakland swung one other deal with the Royals, giving up prospects Ismael Aquino and Dairon Blanco in exchange for southpaw Jake Diekman. The veteran reliever hasn’t generated the hoped-for results, compiling just 11 strikeouts while issuing nine walks over 14 1/3 innings. Blanco has scuffled mightily since the deal, while Aquino remains a total wild card.

 

You might’ve liked to see a bit more talent come in to the Oakland org, which surely could have stood to add more and/or better pitching pieces. But it’s hard to fault a somewhat conservative course when only a Wild Card was realistically in play.

Rangers

It remains to be seen whether the Texas organization will regret the decision not to move Mike Minor and/or Lance Lynn. Both still look like very nice values now and in the near future. For a team with hopes of a reasonably competitive reset, it was understandable that they held onto these free-agent hits. An offseason deal could yet also be considered. But it’ll be tempting to Monday-morning QB the decision if one or both falter.

The Rangers still look to have added some nice pieces in the deadline moves they did make. Veteran reliever Chris Martin brought back southpaw Kolby Allard, while high-powered but command-challenged reliever Peter Fairbanks netted utilityman Nick Solak. It was easy to part with an older bullpen piece, though Fairbanks has shown well and could still make the club pay. Still, it’s hard not to like what the Rangers have seen from their two new pieces. The 22-year-old Allard may not have an exceptional ceiling, but he has managed to carry a 3.78 ERA through six MLB starts. And Solak has a ridiculous .347/.460/.556 slash through his first 87 trips to the dish at the game’s highest level.

We’ll have to wait to see whether the team gets anything out of veteran reliever Nate Jones (if it exercises an option over him), but taking on his salary via trade allowed the Rangers to add a major international target. That deal did cost two rookie ball pitchers. Joseph Jarneski struggled quite a bit after the swap; while Ray Castro put up solid numbers, he’s already 22 years of age and is still pitching in the Dominican Summer League. The Texas organization has also received 10 1/3 solid innings from righty Ian Gibaut, who was added for a song and could be a part of the bullpen mix in 2020.

Angels

[ENTRY BLANK]

Just kidding. But … yeah, not much action for the Halos, was there? The aforementioned Stassi was added on the heels of even smaller acquisitions of along with Josh Thole (link) and Adam McCreery (link). These moves haven’t really cost much and helped the club make it through the season, but that’s about it.

To be fair, the Angels did not have a ton of obvious trade pieces to work with. Kole Calhoun would’ve held appeal, and perhaps in retrospect should have been dealt, but it’s not clear he’d have brought back enough of a return to justify sacrificing what was then an outside chance at a Wild Card run.

Mariners

There’s always some action when GM Jerry Dipoto is involved. But there could have been more. Dee Gordon was and is a candidate to be moved, as the M’s have no qualms about eating salary when necessary. Mitch Haniger might have been an interesting candidate for a big swap but for an injury. Domingo Santana was also not a factor for similar reasons.

The club did end up making several moves that brought in a volume of prospects. Cashing in veteran slugger Edwin Encarnacion in June netted pitching prospect Juan Then, who got his start in the Seattle system. The 19-year-old worked to a 2.98 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 over 48 1/3 total minor-league frames after the swap, topping out at the Class A level.

In a pair of deals, the Mariners sent relievers Hunter Strickland (link) and Roenis Elias (link) to the Nationals for a series of prospects. Elvis Alvarado had been walking more than a batter per inning before the move but recorded a 13:3 K/BB ratio in a dozen rookie frames thereafter. And Taylor Guilbeau showed enough to get a late call-up. He owns a 4.50 ERA in eight innings over 11 appearances. More importantly, he’s showing well against left-handed hitters … though righties have had no trouble. The third hurler added from the D.C. organization is Aaron Fletcher, a recent 14th-round pick who could soon be on the MLB relief radar. He ran up the Nats ladder with good numbers and ended the season with a 13-inning Double-A run with the Seattle organization, over which he compiled a 3.46 ERA with a 15:3 K/BB ratio.

After a long time trying, the Mariners also found a home for veteran righty Mike Leake, whose no-trade rights complicated matters. Seattle was only able to offload $6MM of salary while picking up infielder Jose Caballero. The M’s gave him a look at the High-A level, where he slashed just .256/.339/.333 over 109 plate appearances. The only other Seattle swap was a minor one. Shipping Kris Negron to the Dodgers netted a younger utilityman in Daniel Castro. He continued to struggle at the plate at Triple-A after the deal.

Jake Fraley Done For Season

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  • Mariners outfielder Jake Fraley will miss the remainder of the season because of sprained ligaments in his right thumb, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. Fraley got his first taste of major league action in recent weeks, though he struggled to a .150/.171/.200 line with no home runs in a span of 41 trips to the plate. The 24-year-old offseason acquisition was far better in the minors, though, as he slashed a combined .298/.365/.545 with 19 long balls in 427 plate appearances between the Double-A and Triple-A levels.

Mariners Outright Ryan Court

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The Mariners announced Wednesday that corner infielder/outfielder Ryan Court cleared waivers and has been outrighted to Triple-A Tacoma. Seattle had designated Court for assignment yesterday in making another wave of September call-ups.

Court, 31, made his MLB debut with the Mariners earlier this season, hitting .208/.240/.375 with a home run, a double and 11 strikeouts in 25 plate appearances. A 23rd-round pick of the Diamondbacks in 2011, Court has also spent time with the Red Sox and Cubs before landing with the Mariners’ top affiliate in 2019. He logged a .258/.364/.505 slash and 11 home runs with Tacoma before his call to the Majors and is a lifetime .262/.355/.423 hitter in 1187 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. He’ll be able to become a minor league free agent at the end of the season.

Mariners Promote 4 Prospects, Designate Ryan Court

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The Mariners announced the promotion of four prospects: righty Justin Dunn, outfielder Kyle Lewis, infielder Donnie Walton, and righty Art Warren. To create 40-man roster space, the club designated utilityman Ryan Court for assignment.

This multi-part move comes as no surprise, as the Seattle organization was reportedly preparing to call up Dunn (link) and Lewis (link) just yesterday. Both have ranked among the organization’s very best prospects.

Walton and Warren are lesser-known entities, but still hold promise of their own. Both ranked toward the back of the club’s latest top-thirty prospect list at MLB.com, though of course the import of such a designation varies depending upon the depth of a system.

Walton, 25, spent the season turning in good numbers at the Double-A level. Over 558 plate appearances, he slashed a sturdy .300/.390/.427 with 11 home runs. He’d have been eligible to be selected in this year’s Rule 5 draft but for the move to add him to the 40-man.

As for Warren, he already went through a winter of Rule 5 eligibility without being taken. This time, he’ll be protected by the M’s. At 26 years of age, Warren worked to a 1.71 ERA with 11.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 31 2/3 innings as Walton’s teammate.

The 31-year-old Court finally got his first shot at the majors this year in Seattle, but wasn’t able to stake out a claim to a long-term job. It was still a rewarding season, as he logged his first MLB hit and first home run in a brief showing after entering the campaign in the indy ball ranks. Court is a .262/.355/.423 hitter in over a thousand plate appearances at the highest level of the minors.

Mariners Expected To Promote Justin Dunn

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One longtime Mariners top prospect (Kyle Lewis) is already on his way to the big leagues, but Greg Johns of MLB.com writes that the Seattle organization is also expected to call up righty Justin Dunn now that his Double-A season has wrapped up. Dunn came to the Mariners alongside outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic and hard-throwing right-hander Gerson Bautista in the trade that sent Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano to the Mets.

Kelenic, who has breezed through three minor league levels this season and reached Double-A as a 20-year-old, has garnered the most fanfare of the players Seattle picked up in that deal. But Dunn has elevated his own stock in 2019 and now sits 73rd and 98th on the respective midseason leaguewide prospect rankings from MLB.com and Fangraphs. The 23-year-old has spent the season with Double-A Arkansas, where he’s posted a 3.55 ERA with 10.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9 and a 37.2 percent ground-ball rate in 131 2/3 innings (just shy of his career-high 135 1/3 from 2018).

Dunn draws praise for a heater that sits in the 93-95 mph range (but can reach a bit higher), and MLB.com’s report on him touts both a slider and curveball that can be average or better offerings for him in the big leagues. Fangraphs notes that he also made some gains with his changeup late in 2018 and has improved his slider command, making him a “good bet” to be a fourth starter at the MLB level. MLB.com touts him as a potential midrotation arm.

Like the aforementioned Lewis, Dunn is a former first-round pick himself and, in fact, was selected just eight picks after Lewis in 2016. Both now figure to make their MLB debuts at the same time for the same team, and they’re not the only candidates who could be brought up to the Majors. Johns lists shortstop Donnie Walton and righty Art Warren as others who could make the jump. Seattle would need to open one spot on its 40-man roster in order to accommodate that final wave of promotions, but everyone from that group will be selected to the 40-man roster this winter anyhow, as they’d otherwise be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft.

Assuming that group does indeed get the call, it figures to be an exciting glimpse of the future for Mariners fans who’ve endured some rough lows in 2019 — none worse than this past weekend’s 21-to-1 drubbing at the hands of the division-leading Astros. Dunn is the most highly regarded of the bunch, while Lewis is a ways ahead of Walton and Warren, both of whom rank near the back of the Mariners’ top 30 list at MLB.com. All four from that quartet should get opportunities to prove themselves capable as MLB contributors in the very near future.

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