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MLBTR Podcast: Firings in Washington, Bad Braves, And An AL East Shake-Up

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images

Mariners Outright Jacob Hurtubise

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The Mariners announced that outfielder Jacob Hurtubise has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Tacoma. There wasn’t any previous indication he had been removed from the 40-man, so Seattle’s count drops to 39.

Hurtubise, 27, hasn’t yet appeared in a major league game with the Mariners. He was claimed off waivers from the Reds a few weeks ago and kept on optional assignment. Since then, he has hit .150/.269/.150 in ten Triple-A games. On the heels of that cold stretch, it seems the M’s decided it would be a good time to pass him through waivers and open a roster spot, which turned out to be correct.

Since Hurtubise has less than three years of big league service time and this is his first outright assignment, he does not have the right to elect free agency. The Mariners will therefore get to keep him as non-roster depth.

He has a small amount of major league experience but without success thus far. He currently sports a .167/.291/.212 batting line in 83 plate appearances with the Reds. But he has hit more in the minors, with some speed to boot. He had 715 plate appearances on the farm over 2023 and 2024 with a .306/.443/.437 batting line. His 15.1% walk rate was almost as high as his 15.7% strikeout rate. Overall, that production translated to a 138 wRC+. He also swiped 62 bags in 72 tries over those seasons.

This year has been a struggle but Hurtubise will try to get back in good form and earn his way back onto the roster. For the Mariners, they are surely happy to be able to hold onto a talented player while opening a roster spot for a future move.

Photo courtesy of Katie Stratman, Imagn Images

MLBTR Podcast: Depleted Mets’ Pitching, The Pirates Are Open For Business, And More!

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • Griffin Canning’s injury dealing another blow to the Mets’ rotation (1:45)
  • Which playoff-caliber starters could be available at the deadline? (6:10)
  • What does Canning’s free agency look like with this injury? (12:55)
  • The Pirates reportedly having almost no one off the table at the deadline (15:10)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Could the Orioles be sellers at the deadline and then make a late-season run for a Wild Card berth? (28:35)
  • Should the Royals make Vinnie Pasquantino available at the deadline? (31:20)
  • Should the Cubs get Eugenio Suárez from the Diamondbacks? (35:30)
  • Should the Mariners get Josh Naylor of the Diamondbacks or Alex Bregman of the Red Sox? (40:10)
  • If the Reds are sellers, should they make TJ Friedl available? (44:20)
  • The constant tough question of when a small-market team should sell a star player (47:05)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Wendell Cruz, Imagn Images

Zach Pop Elects Free Agency

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Zach Pop cleared outright waivers and elected free agency, the Mariners announced. Seattle had designated the righty reliever for assignment over the weekend.

Pop, 28, had a brief run in Dan Wilson’s bullpen. He signed a minor league contract in mid-April and was selected onto the MLB roster on June 13. The Kentucky product made four appearances over the next two weeks. He gave up nine runs (eight earned) on 10 hits and a pair of walks through 5 1/3 innings. Pop recorded only three strikeouts among 30 batters faced with a well below-average 7% swinging strike percentage.

Before his brief run in Seattle, Pop spent a couple seasons as a middle reliever with the Blue Jays. He hasn’t missed many bats but recorded a gaudy 55% ground-ball rate across 48 1/3 innings last year. While hitters had a difficult time elevating the ball, they did a lot of damage when they were able to get it in the air. More than 20% of fly balls cleared the fences, leading to a 5.59 earned run average.

Pop owns a 4.75 ERA in parts of five big league campaigns. He’ll probably be limited to minor league offers but should intrigue teams as a depth option thanks to a sinker that averages around 96 MPH.

Latest On Mariners’ Deadline Approach

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The Mariners are reportedly seeking corner infield and bullpen help as the deadline approaches, and MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer reported recently that ownership has signaled it will approve a payroll increase to facilitate such transactions. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times hears similarly, writing that Mariners ownership will authorize increased spending for the front office to add to the roster while ticking through some potential options.

Both Ryan O’Hearn of the Orioles and Josh Naylor of the D-backs are viewed as likely trade candidates over the next month. Both would fit the Mariners nicely at first base, allowing Luke Raley to spend more time in the outfield, where he’s more comfortable than at first base. However, early asking prices from both Baltimore and Arizona are quite high, per Jude.

O’Hearn has repeatedly elevated his game in recent seasons and now stands as one of the most productive hitters in the American League. He’s currently sitting on a .295/.383/.471 batting line with 11 homers, 10 doubles, an 11% walk rate and just a 16.3% strikeout rate through 282 plate appearances. He had a tough month in June, but since being traded from Kansas City to Baltimore in the 2022-23 offseason, O’Hearn has proven himself to be a credible middle-of-the-order bat. He hasn’t quite sustained last year’s enormous gains in contact rate, but he’s chasing off the plate at a career-low rate, walking more and showing a bit more power than he did in 2024.

Naylor offers a similar, albeit not identical skill set. Last year’s career-high 31 homers are far more than O’Hearn has ever produced, though some of that is a simple function of playing time. Naylor logged 633 plate appearances in 2024 (a career-high); O’Hearn has never topped last year’s 494 trips to the plate. Both have above-average power with far better contact skills than the prototypical first baseman/designated hitter. Naylor has fanned only 13% of the time he’s come to the plate in 2025. His 8% walk rate is a bit below average, but his overall .304/.359/.474 slash is terrific.

Looking strictly at 2025, O’Hearn has been a bit more impactful in the batter’s box, but the pair’s last three seasons are virtually identical. Naylor has slashed .279/.340/.472 in 1452 plate appearances, while O’Hearn has turned in a .280/.342/.455 line in 1144 plate appearances. They’ve both walked in 8% of their plate appearances. On a rate basis, Naylor has shown a slight bit more power (.193 ISO to .175), but the difference is minimal. The two are compensated similarly, but Naylor is paid a bit more: $10.9MM to O’Hearn’s $8MM. Both are free agents at season’s end.

In a more interesting but also far less plausible scenario, Jude further reports that the Mariners would have interest if the Red Sox were to make Alex Bregman available. That perhaps speaks to ownership’s willingness to add to the payroll, although presumably, the M’s would be looking for the Sox to at least help with some of Bregman’s heavily deferred $40MM annual salary.

The idea of a Bregman trade is interesting in theory but hard to envision in practice. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are rarely traded, and the massive scale of Bregman’s annual salary only further muddies his candidacy.

In broad terms, it’s difficult for two clubs to line up on prospect compensation for a player with multiple years remaining on his contract but the ability to opt back into free agency at season’s end. The acquiring team generally views that player as a rental — typically an expensive one, salary-wise. In a best-case scenario, that player will produce for two-plus months and then head back to free agency. In a worst-case scenario, he’ll suffer a major injury or see his performance tank, only to forgo the opt-out chance and stick the new club with an unwanted additional year (or years) of the contract in question. The acquiring team will understandably try to price that downside into the prospect return, making it difficult for the two parties to align.

On top of the difficulties surrounding Bregman’s salary and opt-out provision, he’s also been away from the field for more than a month. The Red Sox placed Bregman on the 10-day injured list with a strained quadriceps back on May 24. It was clear at the time that he was facing a lengthy absence. Bregman is inching closer to a return and could be back prior to the All-Star break, but an injury absence of nearly two months and a return only about two weeks prior to the trade deadline creates some risk (to say nothing of the potential for Bregman to struggle upon his return, which would only raise further questions).

Prior to his injury, Bregman was enjoying one of the finest starts of his entire career. He’s played 51 games and taken 226 plate appearances, turning in a stout .299/.385/.553 batting line with 11 homers and 17 doubles. His 9.7% walk rate is up three percentage points over last year’s career-low mark. Bregman was also striking out at a career-high 18.6% rate, but that’s still several points shy of league-average and the uptick in swing-and-miss was accompanied by major gains in batted-ball quality. The 31-year-old’s 92 mph average exit velocity is vastly higher than the 88.8 mph career mark he carried into the season. Ditto his 10.3% barrel rate (career 5.7% prior to ’25) and 48.1% hard-hit rate (career 37.7% prior to ’25).

Bregman is signed through 2027 on a three-year, $120MM contract. Deferrals bring the present-day annual value down closer to a reported $29MM. He can opt out of the contract both at the end of the current season and after the 2026 season but has spoken openly about his interest in signing a long-term extension that’d keep him in Boston more permanently. That’s not exactly a surprise for a player who entered last offseason seeking a long-term deal worth $200MM or more and wound up pivoting to an opt-out-laden, short-term deal with a lofty AAV once that long-term pact didn’t materialize, however.

Ultimately, while it’s fun to dream on the notion of a major trade involving someone of Bregman’s caliber, the specifics surrounding his contract and health — to say nothing of Boston’s uncertain buy/sell status four weeks out from the deadline — render it more a theoretical discussion than a genuine possibility at this stage.

The Mariners entered the 2025 season with a $146MM payroll — third-highest in franchise history. They’ve already added to that ledger with a surprising May claim of outfielder Leody Taveras, which didn’t pan out as hoped. That claim already showed a willingness from ownership to spend a bit more, however, and it bears mentioning that M’s ownership also green-lit payroll hikes for both the 2024 acquisition of Randy Arozarena and the 2022 acquisition of Luis Castillo (as well as his subsequent extension).

Mariners Select Joe Jacques, Option Emerson Hancock

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12:45pm: The M’s have now announced that they have selected Jacques, with righty Emerson Hancock optioned as the corresponding move. It’s unclear how the club plans to fill that rotation spot. They could recall someone like Logan Evans or perhaps try to get to the All-Star break with a four-man rotation.

12:10pm: The Mariners are calling up left-hander Joe Jacques, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. The southpaw is not currently on Seattle’s 40-man roster but they already have a vacancy there. They will need to make a corresponding move to open an active roster spot.

Jacques, 30, started the season with the Dodgers on a minor league deal. A couple of months into the season, the M’s designated Will Klein for assignment and then flipped him to the Dodgers, with Jacques coming to Seattle as the return in that swap.

Between those two clubs, the lefty has thrown 32 Triple-A innings this year with a 6.19 earned run average. That’s obviously not an inspiring number, but he has other numbers which can provide more optimism. His 23.2% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate this year are both solid figures, while his 58.3% ground ball rate is quite strong. His ERA has been inflated by a .396 batting average on balls in play and a 59.5% strand rate in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. His 4.57 FIP suggests he has deserved far better.

The underlying stats match his previous minor league work. From 2021 to 2024, he tossed 173 innings on the farm with a 3.90 ERA, 22% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and grounders on more than half of the balls in play he allowed. He also has a bit of big league work on his résumé. He tossed 29 2/3 innings over the 2023 and 2024 seasons with a 5.46 ERA, 15.9% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate and 61.9% ground ball rate.

The Seattle pitching staff has been light on left-handers for most of this year, with Gabe Speier being the only southpaw to have thrown more than four innings. Jacques will seemingly get a shot at securing a job as the second lefty. He still has a minor league option remaining, so it’s possible he’ll be shuttled to Triple-A and back, as needed. It’s also possible the M’s look some lefty relievers ahead of the deadline, which could push Jacques down the depth chart.

Photo courtesy of Denis Poroy, Imagn Images

Mariners Designate Zach Pop, Select Juan Burgos

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The Mariners announced that right-hander Zach Pop has been designated for assignment.  Juan Burgos’ contract has been selected from Triple-A in the corresponding move, and Burgos will be making his Major League debut whenever he appears in his first game.

Pop was signed to a minors contract in April, and he was selected to Seattle’s active roster just over two weeks ago.  The brief audition hasn’t gone well, as Pop has allowed three homers over just 5 1/3 innings pitched, resulting in a 13.50 ERA to show for his four appearances in a Mariners uniform.  Most of the damage came on Thursday, when Pop was charged with eight runs (seven earned) during a disastrous inning of work in the Twins’ 10-1 win over the Mariners.

That rough outing might close the book on Pop’s time in the Pacific Northwest.  He is out of minor league options, so the M’s had to designate him for assignment and expose the righty to waivers before attempting to move him to Triple-A and off the 40-man roster.

Another club could put in a claim, perhaps figuring that Pop was still a little rusty after dealing with some elbow inflammation near the end of his Spring Training stint with the Blue Jays.  That said, Pop has a 6.42 ERA in 67 1/3 MLB innings with Toronto and Seattle since the start of the 2023 season, as the excellent numbers the grounder specialist posted in 2022 fade further into memory. Opposing batters have gone yard 16 times on Pop in those 67 1/3 frames, translating to a 27.6% home run rate.

The 25-year-old Burgos was an international signing for the Mariners in 2019, and he has booked his ticket to the majors due to a sterling 0.62 ERA over 29 innings at the Double-A and Triple-A levels.  Much of that work has come at Double-A, as Burgos was only just promoted to Tacoma earlier this week, and he made all of one appearance with the Rainiers before getting the call to the majors.

A .129 BABIP has contributed heavily to Burgos’ tiny ERA, but his 27.8% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate have been impressive.  The latter stat is notable since Burgos had some big control problems early in his career, yet his walk rates have steadily improved over time.  Burgos relies heavily (44.4% of the time this season) on his cutter, and his slider has averaged 95.9mph in 2025.  Even if he is up primarily as a fresh arm for Seattle’s pen this weekend, Burgos should get to officially mint himself as a big leaguer and get a chance to show what he can do for the Mariners’ coaching staff.

Mariners Looking For Corner Infield Bats; Ownership Willing To Bump Payroll

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The Mariners are currently 41-38 and in possession of the final American League Wild Card spot, putting them in position to add at the deadline. Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports that the club is looking to add an impact bat at a corner infield spot, though he adds that they could also just get the best bat available and worry about the positioning later. An extra leverage arm for the bullpen is another reported target. Kramer also reports that “ownership will green light increased spending” at this year’s deadline.

The note about the payroll is quite relevant. Throughout the offseason, reporting indicated that the club had about $15MM of spending capacity for upgrading the roster. The M’s then spent a combined $11.25MM on signing Jorge Polanco and Donovan Solano. In early May, they claimed Leody Taveras off waivers from the Rangers, taking on the roughly $3.7MM he had left to be paid out on this year’s salary. The M’s later outrighted Taveras to Triple-A.

Given that the M’s had seemingly spent their budget, it would have been fair to wonder about their ability to make deadline additions. While it’s unclear exactly how much increased spending ownership is willing to approve, any extra pocket money should help the front office pursue external additions.

As for the specific targets, they are not surprising, as the M’s have question marks at both infield corners. Ben Williamson has received the lion’s share of playing time at third base this year and has been solid with the glove, but has hit just .255/.291/.311 for a 77 wRC+. At first base, Rowdy Tellez was the regular there before his subpar bat got him bumped off the roster. He was designated for assignment last week and put on release waivers today.

Solano is now getting most of the playing time at first. He’s not having a great season overall but has been heating up after a dreadful start. He was hitting .131/.156/.148 through May 17th but has a massive .420/.463/.640 line since then. That latter line is a small sample of just 54 plate appearances and inflated by an unsustainable .474 batting average on balls in play but there’s no harm in riding the hot hand in the short term. He also slashed .294/.353/.413 for a 112 wRC+ from 2019 to 2024, so he has a track record of strong offense.

Considering that he’s 37 years old and slumped early in the year, it’s understandable that the M’s may not want to be totally reliant on him. A lot of his damage has also come against lefties in recent years, so they could consider a platoon, though he has reverse splits in this year’s small sample of work.

As for specific targets, Kramer relays that the Mariners have considered a reunion with old friend Eugenio Suárez, currently of the Diamondbacks. Suárez played for Seattle in 2022 and 2023, hitting a bunch of home runs but also striking out a lot. The M’s made a concerted effort to reimagine their offense with fewer punchouts and traded him to Arizona ahead of the 2024 season.

With the Snakes, Suárez got out to a rough start but has been one of the best hitters in baseball for about the past year. He had a .216/.302/.366 line and 87 wRC+ in the first half of 2024 but then exploded for a .307/.341/.602 showing and 153 wRC+ in the second half. Here in 2025, he already has 25 home runs, a .251/.323/.569 line and a 141 wRC+. He’s also been striking out less in the process. He struck out more than 30% of the time as a Mariner but dropped that rate to 27.5% last year and is down to 25.7% so far this year.

His defense isn’t as strong as Williamson’s but he would obviously provide a huge boost to the lineup from the third base spot. Suárez is making a notable salary of $15MM this year, which would leave about $5MM left to be paid out as of the deadline. As mentioned, it’s unknown how much wiggle room the M’s will have to take on money.

It’s possible the Diamondbacks would be willing to eat some of the money but it’s also not entirely clear if they want to make Suárez available at all. Despite a rash of injuries, they are currently 41-39 and just three games out of a playoff spot in the National League. If they fall back in the next few weeks, the possibility of a Suárez trade should increase.

There’s also an argument for Arizona to trade Suárez even in a win-now move. They have lost several arms to injury and could flip him for help on the pitching staff, with Jordan Lawlar then taking over at third. However, there is risk in that path. Lawlar is a top prospect and keeps hitting in the minors but hasn’t yet taken advantage of his major league chances.

Kramer also mentions Arizona first baseman Josh Naylor, noting that he had been linked to the M’s prior to being traded from Cleveland to Arizona in the offseason. Naylor, like Suárez, is an impending free agent. He is making $10.9MM this year while slashing .307/.363/.479 for a 132 wRC+.

Kramer also mentions some other players as possible fits, including Jarren Duran of the Red Sox as well as Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins and Félix Bautista of the Orioles, though those appear to be more speculative suggestions. He also throws out Isiah Kiner-Falefa of the Pirates and Jesús Sánchez of the Marlins as other possibilities.

Duran and Mullins are outfielders but, as mentioned, the Mariners might just grab the best bat they can and figure out the defense later. Luke Raley is currently spending most of his time in the outfield corners but could perhaps spend more time at first base if the M’s added an outfielder.

O’Hearn and Mullins are both impending free agents on a struggling Baltimore club, so they seem likely to be moved. O’Hearn is having a terrific year, with a .301/.384/.485 line and 149 wRC+. His $8MM salary is not nothing but it’s barely half of what Suárez is making. Mullins was hot to start the year but has gone cold lately. He had a .278/.412/.515 line and 168 wRC+ at the end of April but has since put up a line of .167/.201/.348 for a wRC+ of 50. He is making $8.725MM this year.

Duran is still controllable for three years after this one but the Sox have a crowded long-term outfield mix that also includes Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony, Masataka Yoshida and Jhostynxon Garcia. Perhaps the Sox would consider making Duran available as a way to preemptively clear out that logjam while simultaneously adding talent somewhere else. They are currently 40-42 and 2.5 games back of a Wild Card spot.

As for the bullpen, all contenders generally look for upgrades at the deadline. Bautista should be highly attractive if the O’s are willing to make him available but it’s unclear if they would. Unlike Mullins and O’Hearn, he can be retained for two more seasons beyond this one. But given the general volatility of relievers, Baltimore might think about cashing him in during a down year for the club overall.

After missing the 2024 due to Tommy John surgery recovery, Bautista’s control has been a problem, with a 15% walk rate. But he’s still been effective overall, with a 2.60 earned run average and 33.6% strikeout rate. It’s possible he is reining in his command as the season goes along as he has dropped that walk rate to 9.4% in June.

Kiner-Falefa is a glove-first utility guy, hitting .273/.319/.346 this year for the Bucs, which translates to a wRC+ of 85. He is making $7.5MM this season but the Blue Jays are on the hook for part of that as part of the trade that sent him to Pittsburgh at last year’s deadline. Sánchez has generally been a league average hitter for the Marlins. He is in his sixth big league season and has a .240/.309/.425 line and 99 wRC+. He is making $4.5MM this year and can be controlled for two more seasons via arbitration.

There are many possibilities for Seattle, which should make for a very interesting deadline. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has a reputation as being one of the most trade-happy executives in the sport and the Mariners have one of the best farm systems. Reportedly, they wanted to deal prospects for big leaguers during the offseason but found few clubs willing to make that kind of pact since so many teams came into the year hoping to contend. As the season goes along and some clubs fall back in the standings, they might be more willing to take some of those prospects off the Mariners’ hands.

Photo courtesy of Joe Nicholson, Imagn Images.

Mariners Place Rowdy Tellez On Release Waivers

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June 26: The Mariners announced Thursday that Tellez is on unconditional release waivers. Assuming he clears, he’ll be free to sign with any team for the prorated league minimum.

June 20: The Mariners have designated first baseman Rowdy Tellez for assignment, per a team announcement. His spot on the roster will go to outfielder/first baseman Luke Raley, who’s been activated from the injured list after missing seven weeks with an oblique strain.

Tellez, 30, is in his eighth big league season and has popped 11 home runs while serving as Seattle’s primary first baseman. Early in the year, he was expected to see more time at designated hitter for skipper Dan Wilson, but the injury to Raley and ongoing injury issues for infielder Jorge Polanco (who was accordingly relegated to DH work) pushed Tellez into the field on a regular basis.

After a disastrous start to his season, Tellez righted the ship in mid-April and has been a serviceable but flawed source of power in the heart of the Mariners’ order. He reached base just once in his first 23 plate appearances but has since swatted 11 homers and slugged .484. That power comes with a low average and bottom-of-the-barrel OBP, however. Tellez rarely walks, is easy to position against defensively due to his extreme-pull approach, and is measured by Statcast as the slowest player in baseball (eliminating virtually any chance of him reaching via infield hit).

Dating back to April 11, Tellez has taken 162 turns at the plate and is hitting .229/.265/.484. He’s been shielded almost entirely from left-handed pitching, receiving just 14 plate appearances and reaching base only twice (one single, one hit-by-pitch). He’s hitting .219/.257/.463 against right-handed pitching this year.

With Raley nearing a return, it seemed likely that either Tellez or fellow veteran first base option Donovan Solano could be pushed off the roster. Since both Tellez and Raley hit left-handed, the Mariners opted to move on from the veteran who can keep a platoon intact. Solano has helped his cause by hitting better over the past month, albeit in an excessively limited role. He’s batted .333/.394/.467 since May 20 but done so in only 33 plate appearances (26 of them against lefties).

For the time being, Solano and Raley will presumably platoon at first base. That’s not an ideal setup, as Raley is more comfortable in the outfield than at first and Solano has struggled this season overall. The Mariners will, at the very least, likely explore the trade market for righty-swinging options at first base in the weeks ahead. Dominic Canzone has provided slightly better-than-average offense in right field since being called up earlier this month (.233/.303/.400 in 33 plate appearances), but if he struggles like he has in two prior MLB seasons, the Mariners could move Raley to right field. That would set them up to either give prospect Tyler Locklear a run at first base or explore the trade market for a full-time upgrade either at first base or in right field.

The Mariners will have five days to trade Tellez or place him on waivers. He originally signed a minor league contract with Seattle but locked in a $1.5MM salary when he made the roster after a big spring performance. He’s still owed about $806K of that sum, as of this writing.

Any team that claims Tellez off waivers would assume the entirety of that remaining salary. If the M’s find an interested trade partner, they could include some cash to offset the salary in exchange for what would still likely be a nominal prospect return. Since waivers are a 48-hour process, we’ll know the outcome of Tellez’s DFA within a maximum of one week’s time. In the event that he clears waivers, Tellez has enough service time to elect free agency and retain the remaining money on this year’s salary.

Poll: AL MVP Race Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. With an MVP set to be crowned in both leagues after the season, that means two players are already halfway through a year that will earn them the sport’s most prestigious individual award. Who are the frontrunners to claim the trophy for themselves this offseason? We’ll be looking at both leagues over the next two days, starting with the American League:

Aaron Judge

Major stars like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Kyle Tucker have migrated to the National League in recent years, but Judge would arguably have entered the season as the odds-on favorite even if he were still competing with them. The slugger already won the MVP award in both 2022 and ’24. Ohtani won back-to-back MVP awards in 2023 and ’24, but those were for two different teams in two different leagues. Judge would be the first player to win back-to-back MVPs in the same league since Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and ’13. Uncommon as the feat may be, Judge seems well positioned to pull it off. His .367/.468/.727 (225 wRC+) slash line is nothing short of comical, and he already has an absurd 6.0 WAR season according to Fangraphs through just 77 games.

That’s a higher total than stars like Jackson Merrill and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were able to cobble together in a full slate of games last year, and it’s hard to argue with those numbers. Dominant as Judge has been, however, it must be pointed out that he’s currently benefiting from an eye-popping .453 BABIP. That figure is 100 points higher than his career mark, which is already at the high end of the spectrum for sustainable BABIP figures. It would be the highest BABIP by a qualified player since 1871 if he were to maintain it over a full season, and just the second time a player posted a BABIP of even .400 since 2002, joining Yoan Moncada’s 2019 campaign.

Cal Raleigh

If anyone has a chance to challenge Judge for the title, Raleigh likely has the best shot. He’s hit a whopping 31 home runs this season to capture the MLB-wide lead, and his .276/.383/.659 (191 wRC+) slash line is almost as incredible as that of Judge. Raleigh’s 5.1 fWAR is second in the majors to Judge as well, and he’s even managed to chip in on the bases by swiping nine bags in 11 opportunities. Of course, the most impressive thing about Raleigh’s season is that he’s doing all of this while playing the game’s most taxing defensive position. He’s caught 58 of the 75 games he’s appeared in, and if he keeps this up over the full season he’d surpass legendary seasons by Buster Posey in 2012 and Johnny Bench in 1972 to put together the best season behind the plate in MLB history.

The biggest obstacle to Raleigh turning this first-half momentum into an MVP win is, of course, Judge. While Raleigh has the edge in terms of baserunning, defense, home runs, and strikeout rate, Judge is leading in WAR, wRC+, walk rate, all three triple slash categories, and games played. There’s no question about whose season has been more productive when stripping away the context of Raleigh’s position, and Judge might need to cool off significantly in the second half just for their numbers to be comparable when all is said and done.

Bobby Witt Jr.

After finishing second to Judge in 2024 AL MVP voting with a stellar campaign, Witt is back at it this year with another banner year. His elite shortstop glove has made him the second most valuable defender in baseball according to Fangraphs, and he’s already stolen 21 bases after swiping just 31 total last year. With that being said, the power that allowed him to swat 32 homers last year has taken a big step back. The drop off in power has left him with a .286/.343/.490 (123 wRC+) slash line that’s well above average but not quite MVP-caliber, and he would likely need to turn things up a notch in the second half and benefit from steps backward by Judge and Raleigh in order to have a chance at coming home with the trophy.

Jeremy Pena

Perhaps the most surprising entrant into this list, Pena has never so much as made an All-Star appearance in his career but is in the midst of an incredible season. He’s slashed .326/.380/.493 (149 wRC+) in 78 games so far this year with 11 homers and 15 steals in 17 attempts alongside an excellent 16.1% strikeout rate. That wRC+ is seventh-highest among qualified AL hitters, and Pena benefits further from playing a valuable defensive position in shortstop. With that being said, he’s not quite on the level of Witt defensively and his .365 BABIP is elevated well outside the range of his career norms. Like Witt, he’ll likely need a massive slowdown in production from Judge and Raleigh in order to be a serious contender for the award this year.

Other Options

Judge, Raleigh, Witt, and Pena are all more or less in a class of their own at this point in the season, and even Witt and Pena would need a lot to go right in order for them to catch the two front-runners. With that being said, there are some other at least plausible candidates. Tarik Skubal continues to dominate on the mound and his 3.9 fWAR tally matches that of Witt and Pena. Jose Ramirez remains as consistent as ever and could put up another 30-30 season this year. Jonathan Aranda has been one of baseball’s best hitters this year but doesn’t play a premium position. Byron Buxton has flashed all five tools this year with strong defense, elite speed, and a 155 wRC+ but will have trouble garnering much attention with just 60 games played so far.

Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in AL MVP voting? Will Judge reign supreme once again, or could another challenger like Raleigh step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:

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