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Mariners Rumors

Orioles Claim Jose Castillo, Designate Carson Ragsdale

By Steve Adams | September 15, 2025 at 3:29pm CDT

The Orioles announced Monday that they’ve claimed left-handed reliever Jose Castillo off waivers from the Mariners. Righty Carson Ragsdale was designated for assignment in a corresponding move. Baltimore also placed righty Albert Suarez on the 15-day IL due to right elbow discomfort and recalled fellow righties Chayce McDermott and Yaramil Hiraldo from Triple-A Norfolk.

Castillo, 29, joins his fourth team of the 2025 season. He’s suited up for not only the Mariners but also the Mets and D-backs. The well-traveled southpaw has pitched 24 2/3 innings and turned in a 4.38 ERA with a 19.5% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate. He’s tallied three holds in five situations, but lefties (.390/.469/.561) and righties (.300/.377/.455) have both hit well against Castillo in limited appearances.

This marks Castillo’s first generally healthy season since his rookie year in 2018, when he pitched 38 1/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball for the Padres. Injuries decimated the lefty’s career; he pitched only 1 2/3 big league innings combined from 2019-24 and didn’t top 37 2/3 innings at the minor league level in any season along the way. Castillo can still be controlled another two seasons beyond the current year, if he sticks on the Orioles’ 40-man roster.

Ragsdale, 27, is a longtime Giants farmhand who made his way to the O’s via waivers earlier this summer. He made his big league debut with Baltimore, tossing three innings but serving up eight runs on nine hits and a walk with two strikeouts. The 2020 fourth-rounder had solid numbers throughout much of his minor league tenure but has stumbled to a 4.87 earned run average with just a 19.7% strikeout rate and a 12% walk rate.

Ragsdale notched a 2.93 ERA in High-A and a 3.49 mark in Double-A, but he’s barely kept his ERA under 5.00 in parts of two Triple-A seasons. He’s sitting 92.6 mph on his four-seamer this year, complementing the pitch with a high-70s curveball and a splitter — the former of which has previously drawn plus grades in scouting reports. Ragsdale has two minor league option years remaining beyond the current season, which could heighten his appeal to clubs in need of pitching depth.

As for the 35-year-old Suarez, this elbow issue will end his season. He’s missed most of the 2025 campaign due to a separate shoulder injury. Suarez pitched well in 11 2/3 big league innings between injuries, logging a 2.31 ERA with a 10-to-2 K/BB ratio. The journeyman righty was a godsend for the O’s in 2024, going from a minor league signee to a key member of the staff who tossed 133 2/3 innings with a 3.70 ERA.

Suarez pitched in the majors with the Giants from 2016-17 and then spent the 2019-23 seasons starring in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (2019-21) and the Korea Baseball Organization (2022-23). The O’s can control him for three more seasons via arbitration, but it’s not clear how severe his current elbow ailment is or how much time it might cause him to miss.

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Baltimore Orioles Seattle Mariners Transactions Albert Suarez Carson Ragsdale Chayce McDermott Jose Castillo Yaramil Hiraldo

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MLBTR Podcast: Talking Mariners With Jerry Dipoto

By Darragh McDonald | September 12, 2025 at 10:27pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to discuss…

  • Seattle’s lack of spending on free agent position players (2:30)
  • The unique challenges of getting players to want to come to Seattle (4:40)
  • The club’s interest in re-signing Josh Naylor (8:15)
  • Do optics matter when making a move such as bringing back Eugenio Suárez or Jorge Polanco? (9:20)
  • The club’s ability to add talent at the deadline (13:25)
  • Does the expanded playoff field make it harder to trade prospects for major league talent? (16:30)

Plus, Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors joins the show to discuss…

  • Anthony Rizzo retiring with the Cubs (20:40)
  • Sean Murphy undergoing hip surgery and how the Braves look going into the offseason (24:45)
  • The Lourdes Gurriel Jr. injury and the outlook for the Diamondbacks prior to the winter (31:35)

And we answer your questions, including…

  • What would it look like if the White Sox locked up their young core by giving extensions to Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel, Edgar Quero and Shane Smith? (42:25)
  • Which version of Pete Crow-Armstrong will the Cubs get going forward, his red-hot first half or recent struggles? (51:40)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Aroldis Chapman, And Offseason Possibilities For The Braves, Rangers, Pirates And Marlins – listen here
  • A Conversation With Pirates GM Ben Cherington — Also The O’s, Zack Wheeler, And The Rangers – listen here
  • The Pohlads Aren’t Selling The Twins, Nathaniel Lowe, And Service Time Manipulation – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Chicago Cubs Chicago White Sox MLB Trade Rumors Podcast Seattle Mariners Anthony Rizzo Jerry Dipoto Josh Naylor Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Sean Murphy

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Dipoto: Mariners Interested In Re-Signing Josh Naylor

By Anthony Franco | September 12, 2025 at 7:45pm CDT

The Mariners are riding a six-game win streak that has pulled them into a tie with Houston for the top spot in the AL West. Josh Naylor has eight hits, including a trio of home runs, over that stretch. He’s batting .260/.306/.460 with eight home runs in 41 games since being acquired from Arizona at the deadline. He’s also incredibly 16-16 in stolen base attempts, ranking third in MLB behind Juan Soto and Jazz Chisholm Jr. in steals since he was traded. Unsurprisingly, the Mariners would like to keep the impending free agent in the Pacific Northwest.

“Yeah I think we would (like to retain him),” M’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald on this week’s edition of the podcast. “That remains to be seen how Josh feels about the matter. It’s never easy when you’re in a playoff race to open discussions like that. I know that there is interest on our end, and I believe that there is interest on Josh’s end.”

Naylor hasn’t suffered from Seattle’s home park, which grades as MLB’s most difficult for hitters. He’s batting .338 with five home runs in 19 games at T-Mobile Park since the trade. That’s an extremely small sample, but Naylor also had success against Seattle pitching as a visiting player. He’s a career .283/.319/.535 hitter over 140 plate appearances at T-Mobile Park.

“He’s actually as good as anybody that’s played in the last handful of years at hitting in this ballpark. It doesn’t seem to bother him much. We’ll see if there’s an interest in sticking around as a Mariner,” Dipoto noted. Naylor echoed those sentiments when speaking with the M’s beat earlier this week (link via Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times).

“Every time I was an opponent, this is like the first place I couldn’t wait to come to,” the lefty hitter said. “I feel comfortable everywhere, to be honest, but I just really enjoyed playing here coming here as an opponent. I thought it was a super cool stadium. The fans were always electric. I think you see the ball well here, personally. I like the open roof. When the roof is closed, it’s cool. But I love the feeling of the roof open.”

The Mariners are going to look beyond 36 games of park-specific data when deciding how seriously to pursue a long-term deal with Naylor. His success there provides some comfort on both sides, though. The Mariners haven’t been big spenders on free agent hitters throughout Dipoto’s decade-long tenure atop baseball operations. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Mitch Garver is the only free agent position player to sign for multiple guaranteed seasons in that time. Beyond Garver’s $24MM guarantee, last offseason’s one-year, $7.75MM agreement to bring back Jorge Polanco is their second largest deal for a free agent hitter.

Naylor is headed into his age-29 season. He won’t be attached to draft pick compensation because the midseason trade rendered him ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. He should easily surpass the Garver contract and has a chance to secure a four-year deal despite teams’ general reluctance to sign first basemen to long-term contracts. Naylor carries a .271/.333/.462 slash in more than 2000 plate appearances over the past four seasons. His plus contact skills give him a solid offensive floor and he’s a reasonable bet for 20+ home runs annually. His glove rates around league average, and while he’s one of the sport’s slowest players, this year’s stolen base proficiency demonstrates better baserunning instincts than one would expect based on his physique.

Dipoto spoke generally (not regarding Naylor individually) about the organization’s lack of free agent activity on the offensive side. “I don’t necessarily think it’s a personal plan and certainly not something we discuss here internally. … We just haven’t been able to attract the right player that we feel great about investing more than 2/24 in. We’ve tried and we’ve come up short on a number of occasions in trying to recruit those free agents,” he told MLBTR. “We’re also entering a stage in our development where we’re pretty confident in our system and the ability to start churning position players in a way that we were churning out starting pitchers a handful of years ago.”

Seattle’s farm system indeed has a forthcoming influx of young talent. The M’s already graduated rookie second baseman Cole Young, who showed flashes early before hitting a second half slump. They have five additional position players on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospects. None of those players are first basemen, though, and the M’s dealt Tyler Locklear to the Diamondbacks in the separate deadline trade for Eugenio Suárez. Turning the position back over to Luke Raley, who has battled injuries amid a down year, isn’t ideal.

The M’s pushed their payroll to roughly $166MM with this summer’s additions, as calculated by RosterResource. They have around $77MM committed to next season. An arbitration class featuring Randy Arozarena, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryce Miller will cost roughly $35-40MM. Seattle also has a $6MM option on Andrés Muñoz which they’ll certainly exercise. Polanco will be able to return on a contract option that could reach $8MM, though he’s likely to decline that after one of the best offensive showings of his career.

Seattle isn’t likely to be huge players in free agency, but there appears to be room for an offseason built around re-signing Naylor and making a few supplementary additions. It’s also possible they shop Luis Castillo, who’ll make $22.75MM annually for two more seasons. Castillo, who was the subject of some trade chatter last winter, has generally been a reliable mid-rotation presence but has struggled in the second half.

Naylor’s impending free agency was one of myriad topics that MLBTR and Dipoto discussed this week. Seattle’s baseball ops president also spoke with Darragh about the volume of trades for which he’s gained the “Trader Jerry” nickname, reuniting with Suárez after trading him away two seasons ago, re-signing Polanco despite his injury-plagued first season with the club, and the increasing difficulty of trading prospects for major league talent with fewer teams embarking on five-plus year rebuilds than there were a few seasons ago.

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MLBTR Originals Newsstand Seattle Mariners Josh Naylor

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Mariners Designate José Castillo For Assignment

By Darragh McDonald | September 12, 2025 at 5:55pm CDT

The Mariners announced today that they have recalled right-hander Casey Legumina from Triple-A Tacoma. In a corresponding move, left-hander José Castillo has been designated for assignment. The club’s 40-man roster count drops to 39.

Castillo, 29, was just claimed off waivers from the Mets earlier this month. Since that claim, he has given the Mariners three scoreless innings. This move is likely more a result of circumstances than his performance. The Mariners are seven games into a stretch of ten in a row. The bullpen has been leaned on heavily in recent days. Five different relievers pitched on Tuesday. Then on Wednesday, six relievers were used in a game which went to 13 innings. Three of those six pitchers tossed more than an inning. Last night, the club had another long one, using six relievers in a 12-inning game.

Every reliever in the bullpen pitched at least twice in that three-day span except for Emerson Hancock, who logged two innings on Wednesday. Castillo himself pitched in each of the last two games and has seemingly been nudged out to get a fresh arm into the bullpen.

It’s been that kind of year for Castillo, who has generally pitched well. But since he’s out of options, he has been forced into DFA limbo numerous times. He started the year with the Diamondbacks on a minor league deal. He was added to the big league roster at the start of May. Less than two weeks later, he was designated for assignment and traded to the Mets. The latter club designated him for assignment three times. The first two resulted in him clearing waivers and later getting added back to the roster, but the M’s claimed him on the third.

He’s now back in DFA limbo yet again. Since the trade deadline has passed, he’ll be back on waivers in the coming days. Around all the transactions, he has tossed 24 2/3 innings with a 4.38 earned run average, 19.5% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 55.7% ground ball rate. He has also thrown 16 Triple-A innings this year with a 1.69 ERA, 35.9% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate and 50% grounder rate.

At this time of year, he wouldn’t be postseason eligible with any claiming club, though perhaps some team is in need of a fresh arm for the stretch run. As mentioned, Castillo just appeared in the past two games but will have a chance to rest for a few days while on waivers. He could also be retained for next year via arbitration if he’s on a roster somewhere at the end of the season.

Photo courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images

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Seattle Mariners Transactions Casey Legumina Jose Castillo

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Mariners’ Ryan Bliss Undergoes Season-Ending Meniscus Surgery

By Anthony Franco | September 8, 2025 at 5:12pm CDT

Mariners infielder Ryan Bliss recently sustained a meniscus tear in his right knee, general manager Justin Hollander tells reporters (including Tim Booth of The Seattle Times). He underwent season-ending surgery today.

Bliss is already on the 60-day injured list. Seattle’s Opening Day second baseman suffered a biceps rupture on a swing in the middle of April. He underwent surgery that came with a 4-5 month recovery timeline. Bliss had seemingly made good progress and was healthy enough to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Tacoma on August 28. He was hitting .385 over six games there before suffering the meniscus tear.

The 25-year-old Bliss had a slow start to the season. He was batting .200 with a .282 on-base percentage across 11 games. Bliss hasn’t hit much in limited big league playing time, but he had a .269/.377/.456 slash with 50 stolen bases in Tacoma a year ago. The M’s promoted more highly regarded prospect Cole Young to take over second base at the end of May. Young has been mired in a brutal slump since the All-Star Break (.174/.319/.283 in 114 plate appearances). Skipper Dan Wilson has had the 22-year-old on the bench for the past four games. Bliss might’ve been a few days away from retaking the starting second base job.

Instead, the Mariners will continue dividing the playing time primarily between Jorge Polanco and recent call-up Leo Rivas. Polanco is in the lineup every day, but the M’s are reluctant to overwork him on defense as he plays through knee soreness. He’s getting plenty of DH at-bats. The switch-hitting Rivas is in the starting lineup for the third time in four games tonight against St. Louis righty Miles Mikolas. Young remains on the active roster but is out of the lineup for the fifth consecutive game.

The M’s took the final two of a three-game set in Atlanta over the weekend. They’re 1.5 games up on the Rangers for the last Wild Card spot. The Royals and Guardians are also within three games. Seattle trails the Astros by 2.5 games in the AL West picture. They’re back home (where they’ve been far better than on the road over the past two months) for this week’s series against the Cardinals and Angels.

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Seattle Mariners Ryan Bliss

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Jorge Polanco Vests 2026 Player Option

By Nick Deeds | September 6, 2025 at 9:50pm CDT

Mariners infielder Jorge Polanco took his 450th plate appearance of the 2025 season during tonight’s 10-2 win over the Braves, and in doing so he unlocked a player option for the 2026 campaign. Come November, Polanco will now have the opportunity to either return to free agency or stick with Seattle by picking up that option, which is worth $6MM with a $750K buyout. He also unlocked an additional $500K to his incentives added to his salary for the 2025 season by reaching 450 plate appearances this evening.

Polanco, 32, had his $12MM club option declined by the Mariners last offseason in favor of a $750K buyout after he underwent surgery to repair the patellar tendon in his left knee last offseason. He lingered on the open market until February before finally re-signing with Seattle on a one-year deal that guaranteed him $7.75MM between his base salary and the aforementioned buyout on what was then a mutual option. He’s played enough to not only vest that option but also add $2.5MM to his base salary via plate appearance incentives, including the $500K he added today.

That success in terms of staying on the field has been paired with fairly strong production from the veteran. He’s slashing .257/.324/.473 across his 450 trips to the plate after tonight’s game, good for a 125 wRC+ that would actually be the best offensive line of his career. He’s crushed 23 homers, his highest total since 2021, and has done so while striking out just 15.7% of the time. Only 29 qualified hitters have a lower strikeout rate than Polanco this year, and among that group only Jose Ramirez, Cody Bellinger, and Ketel Marte have hit more home runs.

That combination of pop and contact would easily be enough to make Polanco a three-to-four win player if he was playing the infield regularly, even despite his lackluster glove on the infield. He’s primarily served as Seattle’s DH this year, however. Some of that has been due to his recovery from last offseason’s knee surgery and other day-to-day ailments he’s dealt with throughout the year, and part of it is also due to the emergence of top prospect Cole Young at second base and the club’s decision to trade for Eugenio Suarez to man the hot corner. Whatever the reason, Polanco has just 30 appearances in the field (mostly at second base, with brief cameos at both first and third) this season, including just 26 starts.

Even without Polanco playing the field very often, it seems likely that he’ll decline his player option in favor of testing free agency. After all, Polanco landed a larger guarantee than the $5.25MM decision he’ll be making last offseason, coming off a down season where he hit just .213/.296/.355 (92 wRC+) in 118 games. He seems fairly likely to do a good bit better on the market this year. Gleyber Torres is the top name on the second base market this year, with Willi Castro, Amed Rosario, and Luis Rengifo among a handful of utility types also slated to hit free agency this winter. While names like Suarez, Alex Bregman, and Bo Bichette will steal most of the attention among infielders, a well-above average switch hitter like Polanco should get plenty of interest even if viewed as a DH. If viewed as a DH, Polanco would likely join Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna among the second tier of options at the position behind top slugger Kyle Schwarber.

While Polanco is seemingly poised to decline his option in favor of free agency this winter, it ought to be noted that the option does offer him some protection against an injury cropping up that would impact his market. With that being said, it must be noted that Polanco’s contract with Seattle contains language that would block his player option from kicking in if he suffers a lower-half injury that would impact his availability for the start of the 2026 season. Even with that language limiting the scope of his injury protection, however, it’s surely a relief for Polanco to know that he has a contract more or less guaranteed for next season if he wants it.

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Seattle Mariners Jorge Polanco

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Mariners Outright Joe Jacques

By Nick Deeds | September 6, 2025 at 8:49pm CDT

The Mariners outrighted left-hander Joe Jacques to Triple-A yesterday, according to the transactions log on his MLB.com profile page. Jacques was designated for assignment by the club earlier this week when southpaw Jose Castillo was claimed off waivers from the Mets.

Jacques, 30, was a 33rd-round pick by the Pirates all the way back in 2018. He climbed the minor league ladder with Pittsburgh but ultimately departed the organization following the 2022 season without making it to the big leagues. He signed on with the Red Sox and made his major league debut with the club in 2023, but posted a lackluster 5.06 ERA in 26 2/3 innings of work. He remained on Boston’s 40-man roster throughout the 2023-24 offseason, but ultimately made just one appearance at the big league level in 2024 before he was designated for assignment and plucked off waivers by the Diamondbacks. He made only one appearance with Arizona as well before he was once again DFA’d.

He elected minor league free agency during the offseason and landed with the Dodgers on a non-roster deal last November. His 6.04 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work with the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Oklahoma City left much to be desired and prevented him from making it to the big leagues in L.A., but the Mariners were sufficiently intrigued by his solid underlying metrics to roll the dice on him back in June and acquire him in a minor trade with the Dodgers. His performance at the Triple-A level did not improve with the move to Tacoma, as he has struggled to a 6.93 ERA in 24 appearances with the Rainiers this year. Seattle added him to their 40-man roster a month later, but he was never recalled from Tacoma to make his Mariners debut before being DFA’d earlier this week.

Should Jacques accept his outright assignment, he’ll remain in Tacoma for the remainder of the year as a non-roster depth piece for Seattle before having another chance to elect minor league free agency after the season concludes, if he isn’t added back to Seattle’s 40-man roster before then. If he decides to elect minor league free agency, perhaps he can catch on somewhere as a depth option for the stretch run, though he might also look to get a head start on the offseason market and begin searching for a place to play in 2026.

As for the Mariners, they now have Castillo to join Gabe Speier and Caleb Ferguson as left-handed options in their bullpen at the big league level. Tayler Saucedo is in Triple-A and already on the 40-man roster, likely making him the club’s top depth option for filling that role, but if Jacques remains in the organization he could compete with Austin Kitchen to be the next man up after that quartet.

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Seattle Mariners Transactions Joe Jacques

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Poll: Who Will Round Out The AL Playoff Field?

By Nick Deeds | September 5, 2025 at 10:25am CDT

While most of the league’s postseason races are more or less wrapped up at this point, one highly competitive race remains: that for the final AL Wild Card spot. The Yankees and Red Sox have commanding leads for the first two spots that have pushed their playoff odds (per FanGraphs) to 99.7% and 97.4% respectively, but the rest of the field remains fairly open. Three clubs are within two games of the final spot. Who will make it to October among that group? A look at each of those teams:

Seattle Mariners (73-67)

The Mariners are currently in control of the final AL Wild Card spot. Cal Raleigh is in the midst of an MVP-caliber season behind the plate, and he’s been supported by Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena in the middle of the lineup. Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez were added at the trade deadline to help further bolster the offense. Suarez slumped for his first two-plus weeks back in Seattle but is back to form, hitting .265/.345/.592 over his past 14 games.

The rotation that was widely expected to be the club’s strength, however, has looked fairly pedestrian. Only Bryan Woo has stood out from the crowd as George Kirby, Luis Castillo, and Logan Gilbert have all been closer to average starters than ace-caliber arms. Bryce Miller was injured for much of the year and has struggled when healthy. Still, the bullpen remains elite, and the club is in solid position in the standings even after this week’s sweep at the hands of the Rays. They have an outside shot at winning the AL West, sitting 3.5 games out with a three-game set against the Astros later this month. They’ll need to fend off the Royals in Kansas City for three games as well.

Texas Rangers (72-69)

Sitting just 1.5 games back of the Mariners, Texas is in position to pounce if Seattle falters. A schedule that gives them six games against Houston as they sit five games back in the AL West leaves a small chance at capturing the division or perhaps pushing the Astros far enough down the standings that the Mariners claim the West while the Rangers take the Wild Card for themselves.

Even with the advantage of controlling their own destiny, actually making good on that will be difficult for Texas. Key players like Nathan Eovaldi, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Tyler Mahle and Evan Carter are all on the injured list. Wyatt Langford will be leaned on heavily to help carry the offense. A resurgent Jacob deGrom and deadline acquisition Merrill Kelly are still on hand to lead the rotation, and former No. 2 pick Jack Leiter has been excellent over his past 12 starts (2.89 ERA, 28.2 K%). Will the remaining pieces of the team be enough to push them into the playoffs?

Kansas City Royals (71-69)

Like the Rangers, the Royals have managed to hang around the Wild Card race despite significant injuries. Kris Bubic and Cole Ragans have missed much of the year, and Seth Lugo has now joined them on the shelf. That leaves Michael Wacha and rookie Noah Cameron as the team’s most likely starters for the Wild Card series if they can make it into the postseason.

The good news is that the addition of Mike Yastrzemski has been a game-changer for the lineup. He’s belted seven homers in 107 plate appearances and batted .242/.327/.560 overall in Kansas City, joining Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, and Bobby Witt Jr. to form an impressive top four. Carlos Estevez and Lucas Erceg are a quality duo at the back-end of the bullpen, and three home games against the Mariners give them plenty of control over their fate.

Tampa Bay Rays (71-69)

Baseball’s hottest team has won seven games in a row, including a sweep of the Mariners in Seattle and a Thursday victory over the Guardians that pushed Cleveland 3.5 games out in the Wild Card chase. Junior Caminero is the envy of the league at third base, Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe are as impressive as ever in the middle of the lineup, and Drew Rasmussen (2.66 ERA over his past 10 starts) looks capable of going head-to-head with just about any pitcher as a Game One starter. Thirteen games against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Cubs over the course of the rest of the season leave the Rays with plenty of adversity, but perhaps their young talent can stay hot and push them to October.

Which of these teams will come out on top and join the Blue Jays, Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros in the postseason? Will the Mariners be able to hold on? Will the Royals or Rangers overcome their injury woes to force their way in? Or can the Rays stay hot through the end of the year? Have your say in the poll below:

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Kansas City Royals MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Seattle Mariners Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers

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Poll: Can The Astros Hold On To Win The AL West?

By Nick Deeds | September 3, 2025 at 4:05pm CDT

Fangraphs gives each current division leader at least a 60% chance of maintaining that lead through the end of the regular season, per their latest playoff odds. Not all of those chances are equal, however, and two division leaders are far less likely to hold onto their title than the rest.

One is the Blue Jays, who around 45% of MLBTR readers view as likely to hold onto the division as of yesterday’s poll. The other is the Astros, who took control of the division off the back of a dominant 19-7 month of June but since then have struggled to keep pace. They’re 26-29 since the start of July and 16-21 since July 24. Houston’s managed to fend off the Mariners and Rangers in the AL West until now, however, and actually has a larger lead (three games) over Seattle now than they did in mid-August, when they were briefly tied for the division lead at one point.

That rebound in recent weeks has helped them stay afloat, but there’s still cause for concern. What was once a dominant front two in the rotation has now dropped to one; while Hunter Brown is still excelling amid a campaign that’s likely to earn him legitimate consideration for the Cy Young award, Framber Valdez is struggling badly of late with an ERA north of 6.00 since the start of August. The bullpen took a major hit when Josh Hader was sidelined by a sprained shoulder, and the lineup simply isn’t scoring enough runs. The Astros are 29th in the majors since the start of August when it comes to runs scored, and 21st since the start of July. Cam Smith hasn’t sustained his strong start to the year, Isaac Paredes and Jake Meyers are on the injured list, and Jeremy Pena is no longer hitting like a potential MVP candidate.

All of those flaws in the roster have left Houston vulnerable, and their +14 run differential is not just lower than those of the Mariners and Rangers, it’s the lowest of any team currently in playoff position. With six games against Texas and three more against Seattle still on the schedule for September, they’ll need to duke it out with those teams outright in order to hold onto the division. That provides an opportunity for those clubs to make up a lot of ground in a relatively short amount of time. And with the toughest strength of schedule remaining in the division, Houston can’t necessarily bank on cleaning up against weaker teams in their other games.

All of that may make it seem as though the Astros have their work cut out for them if they want to hold onto their lead in the AL West. While that could certainly be true, it’s not as if they don’t also have significant advantages working in their favor. For one thing, much of that rough injury luck has been balanced out by other players returning. Yordan Alvarez and Cristian Javier, in particular, figure to be impactful pieces for Houston down the stretch. And while players like Smith and Pena have cooled off to varying degrees, Jose Altuve and Christian Walker have turned back the clock in the second half after tough starts to the season. Carlos Correa is already hitting better now that he’s back in Houston than he had been in Minnesota, and perhaps a veteran core of Altuve, Walker, Correa, and Alvarez will be able to turn things around for the offense over the season’s final month.

The other thing working in Houston’s favor is the reality that Seattle and Texas aren’t exactly behemoths, either. While the Mariners lineup has put up respectable numbers led by Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, and Randy Arozarena, their vaunted starting rotation has looked much more vulnerable this season than in previous years. They’ll get help from a flimsy schedule that pits them against the likes of St. Louis, Colorado, and Atlanta over the season’s final weeks, but without George Kirby and Logan Gilbert posting better numbers than their league-average season figures, that might not be enough. As for the Rangers, injuries to Nathan Eovaldi, Marcus Semien, and Corey Seager have dismantled the team’s veteran core for the foreseeable future. The losses of Semien and Seager, in particular, are forcing them to rely on a far less reliable group of position players for the stretch run as they look to take advantage of their aforementioned six games against the Astros this month.

How do MLBTR readers view Houston’s odds of making it to October with the AL West crown in hand? Will their veteran core be able to score enough runs going forward, or will the Mariners or perhaps even the Rangers sneak in to take over? Have your say in the poll below:

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Mariners Claim José Castillo, Designate Joe Jacques For Assignment

By Darragh McDonald | September 3, 2025 at 2:40pm CDT

The Mariners announced that they have claimed left-hander José Castillo off waivers from the Mets. The latter club designated him for assignment a few days ago. To open a 40-man roster spot, fellow lefty Joe Jacques has been designated for assignment. Castillo is out of options, so the M’s will need to make a corresponding active roster move once he reports to the team. Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reported the claim prior to the official announcement.

Castillo, 29, has logged 21 2/3 innings this year between the Diamondbacks and Mets. He has allowed 4.98 earned runs per nine but with better underlying metrics. His 21% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate are both close to average, while his 52.9% ground ball rate is quite strong.

That performance hasn’t been enough to keep him in the majors for an extended stretch. Since he is out of options, he has been designated for assignment multiple times this year. Arizona gave him his first DFA of the season in May and then flipped him to the Mets for cash. Since then, the Mets have given him the DFA treatment three times. The first two resulted in him clearing waivers and sticking with the Mets, later getting selected back to the roster. Around the transactions, he also tossed 16 Triple-A innings with a 1.69 ERA, 35.9% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate and 50% ground ball rate.

On this third Mets DFA, the Mariners have swooped in to grab him. They already have three lefties in their bullpen, with Gabe Speier, Caleb Ferguson and Tayler Saucedo back there, but adding Castillo will give them even more balance in their relief corps. He has between four and five years of big league service time, so they can retain him for 2026 via arbitration if he still has a roster spot at season’s end.

Jacques, 30, signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers in the offseason. He was traded to the Mariners in early July. The M’s added him to their 40-man roster and then immediately optioned him to Triple-A. It’s likely that his deal with the Dodgers had some sort of opt-out or upward mobility clause. The Dodgers evidently weren’t willing to give him a 40-man spot but the M’s were.

In the minors this year, he has posted poor surface-level results with better underlying numbers. He has thrown 47 innings in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League with a 6.51 ERA. His 23.6% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate are close to par while his 59.7% ground ball rate has been quite good. He has seemingly been undone by a .393 batting average on balls in play and 57.7% strand rate, which are both on the unlucky side. His 4.61 FIP this year is far more optimistic than his ERA.

Despite the positive indicators, the M’s are moving on. Jacques is in his final option year and will therefore be out of options going into 2026. That would have made it harder for them to roster him going forward, so they are cutting him loose now.

Since the trade deadline has passed, he’ll be on waivers in the coming days. It some team believes he can post better numbers going forward, perhaps away from the PCL, then they could put in a claim. He can still be stashed in the minors for the rest of this year. He has less than a year of service time and theoretically has years of control, though as mentioned, he’ll be out of options next year. He has 29 2/3 major league innings with a 5.46 ERA, 15.9% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate and 61.9% ground ball rate.

Photo courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images

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