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Extension Candidates: AL West

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We don’t really know whether or to what extent extension talks will continue during the coronavirus hiatus. But as I wrote recently, it seems reasonable to think they’ll be explored. Some may already have advanced nearly to completion before the global pandemic intervened.

While we may have to wait to learn who the targets are and see what deals get done, there’s a silver lining: more time for rampant speculation! Okay, we’re not going to speculate here; rather, we’ll tick through some interesting possibilities on paper. Remember, we’ve seen an increasing prevalence of deals with less-experienced players (even some without any MLB service) and with new player types (early-career relievers and utilitymen).

In the present MLB environment, value is king and the old forms are fading. We’ve already checked in on the NL East, NL Central, NL West, and AL East. Here are some possible extension candidates from the AL West …

Angels

It seems the Halos have some level of interest in trying to keep peerless defensive shortstop Andrelton Simmons from reaching the open market. He’d be quite an interesting player to value after a down, injury-filled year. If he can continue producing otherworldly defensive work in 2020 while returning to league-average hitting, he’d be a fascinating player to watch in free agency.

There are a few other guys nearing free agency that could be considered. Tommy La Stella had a breakout in an injury-shortened 2019 season. He’s already 31 and there’ll be questions about sustainability. But perhaps the sides could share the risk and upside with a relatively modest accord. Reliever Hansel Robles and starter Andrew Heaney are both two years from free agency, though there’s no particular reason to rush into a commitment in either case.

Things get quite a bit more interesting when you look at players much further from the open market. Shohei Ohtani put a ton of faith in himself when he came to the majors for a pittance of a bonus. His two-way ability and near-limitless upside on the mound make him a highly intriguing extension candidate, though sorting out a fair value won’t be straightforward. There’s a clear map for a deal for elite outfield prospect Jo Adell, if both sides are interested, as the White Sox have reached successive pre-debut pacts with Eloy Jimenez ($43MM) and Luis Robert ($50MM). Beyond Ohtani and Adell, the Angels could consider much more modest pacts with utilityman David Fletcher and/or reliever Ty Buttrey.

Astros

There’s an abundance of star power to contemplate for a Houston organization in turmoil. Most pressing: outfielder George Springer, who’s entering his final year of arbitration. This is the final window to get a deal done; whether that’s a realistic possibility isn’t known. Not far behind him is shortstop Carlos Correa, who is two years from the open market. His huge ceiling and more modest recent play make this a suboptimal time to work out a deal, unless both sides are in the mood for compromise.

The ’Stros have a pair of slugging young left-handed hitters that could conceivably be candidates for aggressive early extensions. Yordan Alvarez burst onto the scene last year, but he has had a balky knee this spring and is mostly viewed as a DH. Meanwhile, Kyle Tucker is a surefire big leaguer with star upside, but he’s rather less established. On the pitching side, the Astros could potentially chase value by holding talks with Jose Urquidy, Josh James, or even Bryan Abreu. It may be early in all of those cases, but this organization did reach a then-unprecedented deal with Jon Singleton.

Athletics

The Oakland org has a bunch of candidates that leap off of the page in just about every service class. After a monster 2019 season, shortstop Marcus Semien is slated to reach free agency at the end of 2020. It would probably take a franchise-record deal to keep him from testing the market. Perhaps there’s more room to work out a palatable price tag with reliever Liam Hendriks, who has emerged as one of the game’s most effective relievers since being designated for assignment and then called back up late in the 2018 season. Outfielder Mark Canha had his own recent breakout; perhaps he’s also a candidate with two years left until free agency.

What the A’s really hoped for was a pair of long-term pacts with corner infielders Matt Chapman and Matt Olson. But both were not wooed by prior efforts and they’re both now within a season of arbitration. There is certainly still a window, but the Oakland organization will really have to open the wallet. Striking major pacts with either or both (not to mention Semien) would mark a big vote of confidence in the team’s plans for a new ballpark.

Further down the line in terms of service class are a host of intriguing candidates. Outfielder Ramon Laureano, catcher Sean Murphy, and prized southpaws Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk all carry eyebrow-raising talent. They’re also already controlled for quite some time. But this may be the optimal point for the A’s to achieve big value with a few of those players.

Mariners

Having already inked lefty Marco Gonzales and pre-MLB first baseman Evan White, the M’s have already accounted for their most obvious candidates. And the best of the rest aren’t likely in consideration this winter. Mitch Haniger still needs to get back to full health; top prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are probably a bit too green for even an aggressive deal.

But there are a few more to consider. Shed Long and J.P. Crawford each had solid showings last year and could make sense at the right price. Perhaps the Mariners could even consider less-experienced outfielders Kyle Lewis and Jake Fraley, though that’d make for a surprise in either case. It’s frankly difficult even to suggest another candidate; reliever Austin Adams could’ve been of some interest but he’s rehabbing a major knee injury.

Rangers

You could make a case for a few guys here. Young slugger Willie Calhoun might be a worthwhile target after a strong 2019 showing, though it took the club some time to find him a spot in the majors and he’s now nursing a broken jaw. Veteran starters Mike Minor and Lance Lynn are nearing free agency, with the former entering his walk year, though the Texas org already took on some pitching risk this winter and may not want to over-extend itself with older hurlers.

Really, the Texas extension situation is all about one man: slugging outfielder/first baseman Joey Gallo. The game’s preeminent three-true-outcomes batter, Gallo is in his first of three arbitration-eligible campaigns, so he has entered the big earning stage of his career but hasn’t yet been paid huge money. He was limited by injury (oblique, hamate) in 2019 but put up monster numbers when available, with 22 long balls and a .253/.389/.598 slash over 297 plate appearances. It’s easy to forget that Gallo is a valuable outfield defender and baserunner, making him one of the higher-ceiling all-around players in the game.

Rookie Radar: AL West

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The delayed start to the 2020 season will obviously have a wide range of massive effects on Major League Baseball. Among them: a totally different promotional timeline for some of the game’s most exciting young players. We will never know how things would’ve unfolded. And we don’t yet even know what the parameters are for an altered season. But there’s no doubting the impact.

Typically, opportunities open as rosters evolve over the course of a grueling, 162-game season. Some top prospects force their way up to the majors; others are called upon because a need arises. In a shorter campaign, there’ll be less attrition … though we may also see relaxed roster rules and changes to allocation of service time that could create opportunities.

Still, with more time to examine rosters and think about the state of the game, there’s an opportunity to stop and appreciate the young talent on the cusp of the majors. We’ll run through the most interesting prospects pressing for near-term MLB action, starting with the American League West:

Angels

There’s loads of excitement at the top of the farm. The Halos have one of the game’s very best overall prospects in Jo Adell. Perhaps their best chance of catching the Astros lies in Adell taking the league by storm and combining with Mike Trout and (a hopefully resurgent) Justin Upton to form one of the game’s best outfields. Another highly regarded young outfielder, Brandon Marsh, is also close. An elbow injury limited him this spring, but he’ll hopefully rehab through that while the game is on pause.

Otherwise, the Angels will certainly hope they get a significant contribution out of lefty Patrick Sandoval. The 23-year-old took some lumps last year but did put up a 13.5% swinging-strike rate in his first ten MLB outings.

Astros

The division’s dominant force enters the season facing a few questions in the MLB staff. Fortunately, there are a bunch of arms coming. Forrest Whitley still has immense upside despite a brutal 2019 season. He’ll be tasked with getting back on track in the upper minors. Having snuck past Whitley, Jose Urquidy will slot right back into the big league rotation. He’s not known for his high-powered arsenal, but he was highly effective late last year — even including a remarkable performance when pressed into postseason duties (one earned run, 12:2 K/BB in ten innings).

High-octane righty Bryan Abreu also got some playoff action after a strong relief showing late in the season. He could be a force in the pen. Fellow right-handers Christian Javier, Enoli Paredes, and Brandon Bielak are also on the rise.

Another well-regarded player who debuted in 2019 is third baseman Abraham Toro. He smashed minor-league pitching but didn’t thrive in a 25-game run in the majors. Toro had also struggled in Grapefruit League action this spring, but it’d be a surprise if he isn’t called upon at some point in 2020.

Athletics

There’s loads of talent ready to see action in Oakland. Lefties Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk recovered from injuries and hit the majors last year. They’ll draw loads of attention, and rightly so, but that’s just the start. Righties Daulton Jefferies and James Kaprielian could also push for their debuts.

There are names to watch on the position player side as well. The A’s have a bevy of youthful backstops who’ll be entrusted with holding down the catching duties. Sean Murphy put himself on everyone’s map last year. He could be joined by Austin Allen, but fellow young receiver Jonah Heim is also a factor. Infielders Sheldon Neuse will factor, though he hasn’t hit much this spring and didn’t impress in his 2019 debut. It remains to be seen how the club will handle the out-of-options Jorge Mateo with strong competition at second base. Outfielder Luis Barrera hasn’t yet debuted but earned a 40-man spot after a solid partial season at Double-A.

Mariners

On the pitching side, lefty Justus Sheffield has been on the map for some time and is in need of extended testing at the game’s highest level. Righty Justin Dunn had some struggles in his brief debut last year but is competing for a MLB job in camp. Recent first-rounder Logan Gilbert ran up to Double-A in his first professional season and now stands as a consensus top-100 prospect.

Several position players are sure to factor in the bigs as well. Recently extended first baseman Evan White is obviously slated for a big role. And the M’s may well go ahead and provide long looks to 24-year-old outfielders Jake Fraley and Kyle Lewis, each of whom cracked the bigs last year. The Seattle org will want to get a sense of their outlook. After all, there’s more talent coming up behind. It never seemed likely we’d see much-hyped outfield prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez in 2020. With some or all of the minor-league season now gone, it’s even less likely.

Rangers

Most of the best-regarded Texas farmhands are still queuing up further down the system. But there are a few players vying for immediate playing time.

First and foremost, infielder/outfielder Nick Solak is almost sure to fit … well, somewhere. He has featured in the team’s planning all winter, even if the vision for where and how much he’d play has shifted as the Rangers pursued offseason additions. It’s plausible to imagine Solak appearing at first, second, third, and anywhere in the outfield as needs dictate.

Unless and until there’s an injury, the rotation doesn’t have any space. But lefty Joe Palumbo could be among the first names on call if a need arises, or he could slot into the pen. Righty DeMarcus Evans joined the 40-man after a lights-out 2019 season and seems likely to get a crack at the majors at some point.

Mariners Release Sam Tuivailala

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March 23: Tuivailala has cleared release waivers and is now a free agent, Divish tweets.

March 20: The Mariners have placed reliever Sam Tuivailala on release waivers, per a club announcement. That leaves the team with two 40-man roster openings.

Tuivailala was looking to turn in a full season after a torn Achilles shortened both his 2018 and 2019 campaigns. He hadn’t yet appeared in a spring contest when activities were halted.

Over the offseason, the M’s agreed to a $800K arbitration deal with Tuivailala. He’ll still be entitled to 45 days of termination pay, at least in theory. Just how that will be handled given the delay and near-certain shortening of the 2020 season remains to be seen.

Tuivailala, 27, has mostly been quite effective in his MLB career. Through 127 innings, he carries a 3.33 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. He enjoyed some strong results upon his return in 2019, allowing just six earned runs on 13 hits with a 27:11 K/BB ratio.

In his return last year, Tuivailala delivered his fastballs (four and two-seam) more than two miles an hour slower on average than he had previously. But he still sat just under 94 mph. This spring, however Tuivailala had been limited by shoulder fatigue. When last he took the mound, the hurler was working only in the mid- to upper-80s with his fastball, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (via Twitter). That lack off velocity and ongoing concerns surrounding his shoulder quite likely were the primary factors behind the Mariners’ decision.

Concerns Over Shoulder Led To Tuivailala's Release

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  • It was something of a surprise to see the Mariners cut ties with right-handed reliever Sam Tuivailala last week, but Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes that shoulder fatigue has troubles 27-year-old since last year. The issue began while Tuivailala was rehabbing from a torn Achilles, and it culminated this spring with an alarming velocity drop. Tuivailala, who averaged 96.4 mph on his heater with the Cardinals in 2015 and 95.2 mph in his last mostly healthy season (2018) sat 85-86 mph and didn’t top 88 mph on the radar gun this spring, per Divish. Because he’s out of minor league options, the Mariners wouldn’t have been able to send him down to the minor leagues to build up arm strength, either.

Mariners Option 4 Players To Triple-A

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The Mariners have reduced their spring training roster to 45 players. The team announced Friday that it optioned two infielders (Patrick Wisdom and Donovan Walton) and a pair of right-handers (Zac Grotz and Taylor Williams) to Triple-A Tacoma.

Every member of the quartet has garnered some major league experience, but Wisdom may be the most notable name in the group. He’s a former high selection of the Cardinals, who took him 52nd overall in the 2012 draft. But Wisdom, now 28 years old, has only totaled 86 major league plate appearances to this point. He spent almost all of last season as a member of the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate, with which he batted .240/.332/.513 (97 wRC+) and hit 31 home runs in 453 plate appearances. Wisdom then joined the Mariners on a minor league contract back in November.

Walton, 25, ranks as the Mariners’ No. 24 prospect at MLB.com. He did appear in seven games with Seattle last season, but he hasn’t even played at the Triple-A level yet. Walton was quite effective in Double-A ball last season, though, as he slashed .300/.390/.427 (134 wRC+) with 11 homers, 10 steals and almost as many walks (63) as strikeouts (72).

As for the optioned pitchers, the 28-year-old Williams became a Mariner in February by way of a waiver claim from the Brewers. He racked up 53 innings out of the Brewers’ bullpen in 2018, parlaying a 95 mph fastball into a respectable 4.25 ERA/3.95 FIP with 9.68 K/9 and 4.25 BB/9. But Williams spent the majority of last season at the highest level of the minors, thanks in no small part to the near-10.00 ERA he posted over 14 2/3 innings in Milwaukee.

Grotz, a former Astros, Dodgers and Mets farmhand, is in his second year in the Seattle organization. He amassed a combined 77 2/3 innings among the Double-A, Triple-A and major league levels last season. In his first 17 1/3 frames in the bigs, Grotz notched 18 strikeouts and allowed eight earned runs on 14 hits and eight walks.

Coronavirus Updates: Draft, ASG, Workouts, Scouting

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We now know that the COVID-19 pandemic may delay the start of the Major League Baseball season until at least June or July. As of now, however, the league hasn’t indicated whether it will postpone the June 10-12 draft or the July 14 All-Star Game at Dodger Stadium, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. Meanwhile, the league and the union have been negotiating on payment for the players during this shutdown. MLB proposed “an initial lump payment” to the players to make up for missed checks early in the season, and then the MLBPA countered that offer, Sherman writes. It’s unclear how much progress the two sides have made in those talks, though. The league plans to turn its attention to payment for minor leaguers and stadium and team personnel once it’s through ironing out how to proceed with players who are on 40-man rosters, per Sherman.

  • Yankees players have been staying in Florida to work out, but manager Aaron Boone admitted Monday that might not be feasible anymore, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com relays. Boone, whose organization had a minor leaguer test positive for coronavirus last week, acknowledged that “it’s getting more and more challenging” to carry out present plans, adding that he’ll likely return to New York in the next couple days. It remains to be seen whether members of the club will follow suit in returning to their homes, but if they do, Boone’s confident they’ll be able to stay in shape by working out on their own.
  • Mariners players have been exiting their facility in Arizona, according to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. The M’s are down to 28 players remaining there, and they sent all of their non-roster invitees home.
  • Count former Mets general manager and current Athletics consultant Sandy Alderson among those dumbfounded that independent workouts are still going on at all. He expects them to end in the immediate future. “I would be surprised if anybody is in camp after the next two or three days, because No. 1 it doesn’t make any sense from a baseball standpoint, if the season is not going to start until maybe June 1,” Alderson told Mike Puma of the New York Post. “And secondly it doesn’t make any sense in terms of setting an example for the rest of the population to have a bunch of athletes running around playing catch. That does not constitute social distancing.”
  • MLB has ceased all scouting activity, both foreign and domestic, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. That’s hardly a surprising development with just about all sports on hiatus at this point. Even in-home and in-person visits have been prohibited, Rosenthal notes.

Mariners Among Teams Trying To Figure Pitching Plans

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Pitchers are creatures of habit, yet the indeterminate delay to the 2020 season is the biggest possible disruption to any preseason routine.  Like every team, the Mariners are trying to figure out the best way of keeping their pitchers on some type of regular throwing schedule to keep them prepared, while not really knowing when actual games will get underway.  “You don’t want to lose a whole lot of momentum. We also don’t want to build them too quickly,” manager Scott Servais told MLB.com’s Greg Johns and other media.  “Most guys are at three or four innings, at 50-60 pitches, so we’ll try to keep them right there with our starters.  And then we’ll ramp them up once we get closer to knowing what the for-certain Opening Day would be.  For now, we just want guys to stay active, play some catch.  You won’t see anybody throwing sides or catchers with gear on, we’re just going to try to slow it down here for the next few days.”

Latest On MLB, Coronavirus

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11:10am: Teams throughout the league have been sending scouts home this morning, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that “just about every team, if not every team” has taken this step. Meanwhile, in an unlocked article that is not behind the web site’s paywall, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal runs through several potential pandemic-related issues and courses of action for the league.

As for any actual action from the league, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that the league is likely to provide some clarity today. At this point, it feels inevitable that the league will make a statement on the status of Spring Training games and the regular season in the very near future.

1:55am: The coronavirus outbreak led the National Basketball Association to suspend its season on Wednesday. It’s unclear how Major League Baseball will react before its regular season is scheduled to begin March 26, but it’s becoming increasingly likely that the pandemic will have a sizable effect on its plans.

It’s possible, for instance, that some of the league’s teams will start 2020 by playing regular-season games outside of their normal home venues. That already seems to be the case for the Mariners, who are “likely” to host their season-opening series in the Phoenix area instead of in Seattle, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com. But they may not be the only club in that situation. The state of California has recommended limiting public gatherings to 250 people for the rest of March, which means the Dodgers, Padres and Athletics could either play their initial series elsewhere or have those sets postponed, Passan tweets. All three of those teams are scheduled to play at home until early April.

For now, MLB executives aren’t slated to discuss how they’ll proceed until a Friday conference call, per Passan. However, with the NBA shutting itself down and the National Hockey League possibly poised to make a similar announcement on Thursday, perhaps MLB will reach a decision on how it will move forward sooner than expected. The hope is that the league will come up with a plan “within days,” three high-level team officials told Passan.

Carlos Gonzalez Unlikely To Make Mariners’ Roster

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Outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is not expected to make the Opening Day roster of the Mariners, according to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Following up on that, MLBTR’s Steve Adams tweets that Gonzalez has an April 1 opt-out in his minor league deal with Seattle. He can also request his release on the first of the month each month up through August if not on the MLB roster.

The 34-year-old Gonzalez has produced middling numbers this spring, with a slash of .273/.360/.318 across 25 plate appearances. And though that’s an improvement over the .200/.289/.283 line he put up at the MLB level in 2019, it appears that won’t be enough to get him back into the big leagues. Divish spoke to some scouts who commented on his slow bat speed and struggles with velocity. Divish adds that Gonzalez wasn’t viewed as likely to make the club even at the time he signed his deal, calling it more of a “courtesy” audition for a veteran player.

The Mariners seem to have narrowed their outfield competition down to younger players that they want to get long looks at, with Jake Fraley being the favorite to play regularly in right field, alongside center fielder Mallex Smith and left fielder Kyle Lewis. Divish also notes that the utility/bench duties are likely going to other younger players, such as Tim Lopes and Patrick Wisdom. Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty were also seemingly getting more consideration than the veteran Gonzalez before befalling to injuries.

Gonzalez, a three-time All-Star, had a terrific run of success with Colorado from from 2009 to 2016, producing a wRC+ above 100 in each of those seasons except for the injury-shortened campaign of 2014. However, he hasn’t been able to get back above the 100 line since.

Gonzalez now seems likely to return to the open market, given the opt-out provisions in his deal and his apparently minimal chances of making the roster in Seattle. He could theoretically decide to stay with the Mariners organization in order to get some playing time down on the farm and further showcase himself for other clubs. But given the organization’s preference to use the 2020 season to look at young talent, Gonzalez may lean toward trying to find a better path back to the show.

Coronavirus Response Will Require MLB Schedule Changes

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1:30pm: The Athletics and Giants have issued statements regarding the coronavirus. An exhibition game between the two that was scheduled to take place at Oracle Park on March 24 has been canceled, the Giants announced. The two clubs are looking into alternate settings.

Meanwhile, the A’s, who are scheduled to open the season at home with a four-game series against the Twins, announced that they will “adhere to any government directives and work with Major League Baseball on all alternative arrangements.” It seems overwhelmingly likely that the series will be played in a different setting than expected — be it a new location or an empty stadium.

12:25pm: As the coronavirus continues to sweep across the globe, it is increasingly apparent that staging Major League Baseball games in the manner anticipated will simply not occur. Already today we have seen several major developments in the response to the deadly disease.

This story is far bigger than sports. But sports have an essential role to play, both in forestalling transmissions that can occur in large gatherings and in signaling the need for community-level precautions.

Today, the World Health Organization formally designated the coronavirus a pandemic. WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that nations “can turn the tide,” but warned not only of “the alarming levels of spread and severity” but also “the alarming levels of inaction” around the globe.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infections Diseases, addressed the matter in relation to basketball. The Ivy League has canceled its conference tournament but others remain on schedule along with the NCAA tourney. And while the NBA has begun preparing for disruption, it hasn’t yet acted.

Fauci says the outbreak is “going to get worse” and left no doubt he sees a need to curtail large-scale gatherings, at minimum in areas in which community spread has been detected. “We would recommend that there not be large crowds,” he said. “If that means not having any people in the audience when the NBA plays, so be it.”

American municipalities are increasingly acting upon the evident need to slow the spread of the coronavirus to limit the strain on health systems to the extent possible. Some of those decisions could directly force MLB to change its plans. To this point the league has instituted various minor changes to regular Spring Training rules — media accessibility, fan interaction, non-essential personnel being kept from traveling or appearing in the clubhouse — but has not limited Spring Training contests or changed its schedule for the upcoming regular season.

The league has indicated an awareness of the gravity of the situation and acknowledged the “fluidity” inherent to it. As the dangers become all the more evident, one might hope that the urgency of the matter will lead the league to taking a proactive, leadership position.

With Seattle serving as one epicenter of the outbreak in the United States, it is now all but certain that the Mariners won’t play there as planned to begin the season. The team now expects its first two home series to be prohibited by decree of the governor, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports on Twitter.

It’s quite likely this is the tip of the iceberg, in Seattle and elsewhere. We’ve seen concepts floated of moving games scheduled for Seattle to Arizona, but that’s premised on the highly questionable premise that it’ll be safe to stage such massive gatherings anywhere within the next several weeks.

Other municipalities are also moving in a similar direction, with more sure to follow as evidence of the virus’s spread increases. San Francisco has banned gatherings of over one thousand people for at least the next two weeks, Connor Letourneau of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. Washington, DC has recommended cancellations of gatherings of one thousand or more people. That was the same guidance issued yesterday by San Francisco; the city boosted it to an outright prohibition after the NBA’s Warriors held a home game.

Whatever the annoyances or disappointments, they’re designed to avoid the awful situations we’ve already seen unfold in China, Italy, and other places. Experts have explained the critical importance of “social distancing” measures to prevent the rapid spread of the disease, which is far more deadly and damaging when overburdened health systems struggle to provide adequate treatment.

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