MLBTR's Steve Adams is hosting a chat this afternoon at 3pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
The Astros have spent the entire offseason looking for a left-handed hitting outfielder. They swapped Jesús Sánchez for Joey Loperfido last week. That saves around $6MM in the difference between Sánchez's arbitration salary and Loperfido's league minimum sum but doesn't change their lineup balance. They added Cavan Biggio on a minor league deal and are reportedly looking at Michael Conforto, who could also settle for a non-roster invite after a rough year in Los Angeles. They're fine depth targets but not locks to even be on the MLB roster -- much less to be a meaningful upgrade.
Free agency only offers those types of reclamation targets at this point. Beyond Conforto, there are also Max Kepler (suspended for the first 80 games after a failed PED test), Jesse Winker and Alex Verdugo. If the Astros are going to make a significant move, it'll have to be via trade. Most of their trade pursuits have been tied to their willingness to field offers on Isaac Paredes given their infield logjam. That's one avenue but obviously not the only way they could trade for a lefty-hitting outfielder.
MLBTR readers are familiar with the top trade targets who fit the bill. Either Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu would be an ideal fit but seem likelier to remain in Boston. The Cardinals could deal Lars Nootbaar this spring but may prefer to hold him until the deadline, as they'd be selling a little low with their left fielder coming off a pair of heel surgeries. Last week's Caleb Durbin/Kyle Harrison swap is a reminder that teams explore various avenues that don't involve players who have been the subject of public trade speculation. It's safe to assume the Astros have had some of those conversations behind the scenes. Let's run through a handful of affordable left-handed bats whom they could look to pry from another club.
Lile made his MLB debut in late May and hit the ground running, at least offensively. He ran a .299/.347/.498 slash line with nine home runs through 351 plate appearances. Lile is an excellent pure hitter. He has advanced contact ability and has always hit a ton of line drives. Although he doesn't have huge power, he should have a strong offensive floor based on the batting average alone. He's a career .273 hitter in the minors and had the highest "expected" batting average in MLB last year (.302), per Statcast.
All that said, the 23-year-old looks more like a quality complementary player than a cornerstone of a rebuilding Nationals team. Lile was a mid-tier prospect during his climb through the farm system. Scouts have never doubted the hit tool but have questioned how much all-around impact he'll make. He has fringe-average power. Although he has plus straight line speed, his reads in the outfield are rough. Defensive Runs Saved had Lile a dismal 14 runs below average in just over 600 innings. He was 10 runs worse than average by Statcast.
Single-season defensive metrics can be fluky, but those grades match the eye test. Here are a handful of examples of Lile turning what should have been easy outs into hits, largely by playing very conservatively at the catch point. Maybe he'll improve with time, but he's not a good outfielder right now. The Astros haven't cared much about left field defense, playing Yordan Alvarez, late-career Michael Brantley, and Jose Altuve out there in recent years. The Nationals have a new front office that played no part in drafting or developing Lile. They'd presumably be open to conversations.
This week's mailbag gets into the Red Sox and their offense, Masataka Yoshida's trade value, how far Jacob deGrom is from Hall of Fame consideration, the Brewers and Christian Yelich's contract, the Phillies' and Braves' rotations, and how revenue sharing money is spent. Now that Bruce Meyer has been named executive director of the MLBPA, I've added thoughts on that news at the bottom of this article.
Christopher asks:
Do the Red Sox have enough offense to make the playoffs?
David asks:
It's two weeks before the trade deadline and the Red Sox are in contention but it's painfully obvious they didn't solve their problem with needing a power hitter. I appreciate it's only February but look into your crystal ball. Who are their likely targets?
Dave asks:
Given the fact Luis Arraez recently signed for $12M year contract, do you still feel there is no value for some team picking up Yoshida? Both have bad marks defensively and Arraez has a higher batting average but Yoshida provides more power, so that may balance out. Worse case someone should take Yoshida for at least $8M.
Lloyd asks:
Boston has an OF glut and Duran is mentioned as the one to most likely be traded. Detroit has an INF glut and Torres is tradeable after June 15. Is there a match here, assuming both players are healthy and productive? Would Boston move Duran for Anderson or Lee, Tiger Top-10 prospects who rank in the lower end of the top 110 MLB prospects? Detroit could use an OF bat for the big push. Assuming salary/contract considerations offer no stumbling block, is this something that would work?
The Red Sox continue to have room for a major addition at second or third base, given that recent addition Caleb Durbin can play either spot. Such a pickup would bump Durbin or Marcelo Mayer to the bench, which already has a pair of infielders in Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Romy Gonzalez. (Or Mayer could return to Triple-A, where he's only played 43 games).
It's worth keeping in mind that the most accurate projection system, The Bat X, has Durbin posting an 85 wRC+ this year, Mayer at 86, and Kiner-Falefa at 69. Gonzalez is at 102, but he's done almost all his damage against left-handed pitching. Even veteran shortstop Trevor Story is only at 97 in that projection system. Throw in catcher Carlos Narvaez at 83 and Ceddanne Rafaela at 88, and there's a pretty good chance five of nine Red Sox lineup spots feature subpar offense.
Certainly, there is room for a Mayer breakout or a Kristian Campbell bounceback (Campbell is outfield-focused). Durbin and Narvaez could sustain more of last year's success. Story may hit like he did from June onward last year. Rafaela flashed brilliance at the plate for a couple months.
But that's quite a few "ifs," and the club is reliant on good health from 33-34-year-olds Story and Willson Contreras.
Offense isn't everything, which is why FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a healthy 60.1 shot at the playoffs this year. The club projects to get a lot of value out of its outfield and DH spots; they're fifth in baseball in total WAR for those four spots. The opposite is true of Boston's infield, which rates 26th. And that does account for the club's likely improved infield defense.
The Red Sox rank first in all of baseball for projected starting pitcher WAR. About 72% of that value is coming from the trio at the top: Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez. While the Sox do have a wealth of solid depth options behind them, it's fair to say a major injury to Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Roman Anthony, or Rafaela could knock them out of the playoff picture. I'm sure you could say that about the top five players of any team, but three of these are pitchers. Crochet and Suarez have lengthy injury histories, and Gray is 36.
Anthony Franco
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Joe from Milwaukee
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el jefe
Thoughts on the Preller extension?
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Half St
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Barron Of th Bullpen
Joey Loperfid'oh!
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Arizona
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Alex Anthopoulus
In the aftermath of the Alex Bregman signing, one of the immediate questions was whether it changed how the Cubs would proceed with Nico Hoerner. Bregman pushed second-year infielder Matt Shaw into a utility role, but he'd be capable of stepping in at second base. The Giants, Red Sox and Mariners were among the teams seeking a trade match for a player of Hoerner's profile. Would the Cubs flip him before his walk year?
That's almost certainly not happening now. There was no reason for the Cubs to entertain the possibility unless they were blown away by the kind of prospect that other teams would not entertain for a rental (e.g. Connelly Early, Bryce Eldridge). Hoerner is a much better player than Shaw in the short term, and the Cubs have as strong a chance as anyone to take the NL Central. Boston traded for Caleb Durbin, while the Giants signed Luis Arraez to play second. Seattle acquired Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals.
As Spring Training gets underway, the focus might now swing to an extension. March is the most common time of year for those conversations. If the Cubs are able to get a long-term deal done with Hoerner this spring, that could make them more comfortable dangling Shaw in deadline talks if any top-of-the-rotation starters come available. Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic wrote this week that Hoerner has emerged as a pillar in the clubhouse. The relationship between team and player is strong enough that it'd be a surprise if they didn't have some conversations before Opening Day about what it'd take to keep him off the market.
Let's try to narrow down what that might cost:
Monday's surprise trade sending Rookie of the Year finalist Caleb Durbin from Milwaukee to Boston plugged a hole in the Red Sox' infield while ostensibly opening one for the Brewers. Not only did the Brewers trade their incumbent third baseman, the deal also sent Andruw Monasterio and Anthony Seigler to Boston -- two of Milwaukee's top options on the third base depth chart. The Brewers picked up speedster David Hamilton in that swap and will give him some spring reps at the hot corner, but he's played all of one game professionally at third base. Hamilton's value is derived primarily from plus second base glovework and his abilities on the basepaths. He's not a natural fit to take the reins at third base.
Though the Durbin trade opened up a hole at third base, it also further deepened the Brewers' already deep collection of starting pitchers. Even after trading ace Freddy Peralta to the Mets for top prospects Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams, the Brewers boast a starting staff that'll include Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski, Quinn Priester and Chad Patrick in the top four spots. Plausible candidates for the fifth spot include Sproat, Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser, DL Hall, Aaron Ashby and newly acquired lefties Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan, who came to Milwaukee alongside Hamilton.
The Brewers are no strangers to putting the finishing touches on their big league roster once spring training is already underway. In fact, it's become almost something of an annual tradition. In 2025, Milwaukee didn't sign Jose Quintana until early March. Even their trade for Priester came a week or so into the season. In 2024, they signed Gary Sánchez and re-signed Brandon Woodruff after camp had opened. Their late signings in 2023 included Luke Voit, Justin Wilson and Jon Singleton.
By the time camp opens, many clubs have finished conducting the bulk of their heavy lifting. That hasn't been the case for the Brewers, and with at least one open question in their infield, it's fair to think president of baseball operations Matt Arnold and his staff are looking into one more finishing piece even as pitchers and catchers travel south to Arizona for the beginning of the Cactus League season.
This week's mailbag gets into the Orioles' and Braves' rotations, whether Nick Castellanos could help the Tigers, and what the Brewers will do at third base after trading Caleb Durbin. It concludes with a bunch of my half-baked "hot takes" for your amusement. I'd love to see yours in the comments.
Michael asks:
Why couldn't the Orioles have signed Ranger Suarez? Seems like they whiffed on this deal.
I don't know that it needed to be Suarez specifically, but Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias has thus far failed to add a front of the rotation starting pitcher. Shane Baz is probably good for 2 WAR and still has breakout potential. But (likely) better pitchers such as Suarez, Dylan Cease, Sonny Gray, Framber Valdez, Michael King, MacKenzie Gore, and Freddy Peralta were available this winter and the Orioles didn't add any of them.
Elias had this to say in a recent press conference: "I think we’ve put together a really strong rotation as it stands right now. We’ll continue to look externally, if we can bolster this group in one way, shape or form. … But I think that this rotation looks good."
Elias could still boost the team by one or even two wins by signing Zac Gallen, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today did name the Orioles as one of four suitors. Still, any of the above would've been better. Elias noted that "late signings can be tricky," implying that his interest in adding a notable free agent starter might diminish by (in my estimation) the end of the month.
FanGraphs projects the Orioles' rotation to be the 17th-best in MLB. That includes 3.1 WAR from Kyle Bradish in 148 innings. I think Bradish is good for more than that, though I'm also not confident Zach Eflin can reach his 146 inning projection, so maybe it's a wash. Eflin underwent lumbar microdiscectomy surgery last August and aims to be ready for Opening Day.
FanGraphs' projections currently calls for five different Orioles pitchers to reach 146 innings. Is there any chance of that happening?
Steve Adams
Duffy
Steve Adams
I'm sure they've looked into that sort of possibility, but it's not something that's going to appeal to many other clubs.
Grump
Steve Adams
Still an A
Anthony Franco
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