MLB Mailbag: Devers, Nationals, DFA Carousels, Guardians, Red Sox
I'm pinch-hitting for MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes on this week's MLB Mailbag! In this edition, we'll get into Rafael Devers' contract and trade value (or lack thereof), the Nationals' unexpectedly strong performance and how it could shape their deadline, the revolving door for "41st men" on 40-man rosters (e.g. Atlanta's Carlos Carrasco), the Guardians' deadline needs, the Red Sox' search for a right-handed bat and more.
Onto the questions...
Peter asks...
With Rafael Devers hitting again (and his defense at first base very good) how would you rate his value on the open market taking into account his remaining contract? What level of return would you expect the Giants might get for him and what teams do you think would be most interested in him? Would the Giants have to pay down any of his remaining contract?
Devers is indeed hitting better after an awful start to the season. Following a disastrous .207/.248/.289 slash and 31% strikeout rate through the end of April (129 plate appearances), he's rebounded with a .257/.321/.500 line over his 165 most recent trips to the plate. It's an encouraging turnaround, but there are some red flags worth mentioning.
First and foremost, that 31% strikeout rate that dogged Devers through his dreadful early slump hasn't abated. Over this stretch of 165 plate appearances, he's fanned at a 30.9% clip -- effectively the exact same rate. The biggest differences have been a modest bump in power (six homers in this stretch) and a huge spike in Devers' batting average on balls in play. His BABIP in that slump was a roughly league-average .288. During this turnaround, he's at .344.
That doesn't all come down to luck. Devers' exit velocity has jumped from an average of 89.8 mph during that cold snap to a huge 93.4 mph in his hot streak. His hard-hit rate has soared from a solid 41.5% to an elite 55.6%. Devers is making better contact, so it only stands to reason that more of his balls in play should be landing for hits.
Be that as it may, however, Devers still isn't walking much. His contact rate on pitches within the strike zone, even during his recent surge, is 75% -- well shy of the league-average 85.9%. And while Devers has been good during this span, he hasn't been his peak self. By measure of wRC+, Devers has been about 27% better than average since early May. That's very good, but it's not close to his best output. Back in 2021-22, for instance, Devers crushed 65 homers in 297 games and did so with rate stats that placed him about 36% better than average: .287/.355/.530. His strikeout rate over those two years was 20.1%. His contact rate on balls in the zone was still below average but was five percentage points higher than during this recent revival.
All of that is to say, Devers has been performing like an above-average but flawed hitter since the beginning of May. That's a nice development after he looked lost to begin the season -- and after he dealt with a disk injury in his lower back last summer -- but does it restore any semblance of trade value? I don't believe so.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! I'll get going at about 2pm CT, but feel free to submit a question(s) ahead of time if you're so inclined. Looking forward to it!
- Good afternoon! I'll get going in one minute here, just wrapping up a long email on our forthcoming Free Agent Power Rankings.
- Ok!
Little Texas
- could you see the Rangers moving in the outfield walls this winter or try signing more power hitters
Steve Adams
- They've already brought in power hitters on both sides of the plate. Neither Joc Pederson nor Jake Burger has had the impact they hoped. I can see them altering the dimensions at some point, yeah. Seems like they're pretty surprised the new Globe Life plays so pitcher-friendly.
Guy Incognito
- Hi Steve. Do you think the uncertainty of the next CBA and possible work stoppage is going to affect trade deadline targets? I was wondering specifically about guys that have extra years of control beyond 2026. Would a guy with 1 extra year be treated as such if 2027 might get washed out? Would a guy with 2+years be affected because of the possible salary cap?
Steve Adams
- It didn't have a major impact last time around, just like the shortened Covid season didn't have a huge impact on the trade deadline. Teams are motivated to win now, and I expect everyone to operate under the assumption that there'll be a lockout but no games lost. I think fans have a more pessimistic outlook on games being played in '27 than a lot of people who work within the sport, which is kind of the point. The league is trying (and succeeding) to rally fan sentiment/support for the cap with a lot of doom-and-gloom narratives but I don't think nearly as many front office people (I'm sure there are some) see it as a foregone conclusion that games will be lost.
Steve
- Instead of teaching and encouraging pitchers to throw ungodly MPH. Is it a lost cause to teach pitchers how to pitch instead of throw? This, in my mind, cut down TJ surgeries, especially younger and younger kids getting the operation. I site a prime example of Greg Maddox. It takes strategy. Have a great fastball...that's fine, but there are a few pitchers scattered throughout MLB that are good pitchers and not gifted with speed. I was going to point to a guy like Bailey Ober, but I think even he had the surgery. Any thoughts on any of this. Love the chats. Thanks.
-
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
BENEFITS- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Is It Even Worth It For The Mets To Be Sellers?
The Mets' season spiraled out of control far quicker than anyone could have reasonably anticipated. Even those who thought New York's NL club would miss the 2026 postseason probably weren't forecasting a 27-35 record placing them third from the bottom in the league, trailing a rebuilding Nationals club or a $75MM-payroll Marlins team.
Many Mets fans are -- understandably! -- waving the white flag already and calling for the team to be deadline sellers. The Mets, unsurprisingly, aren't in any rush to part with veteran players. No team is pivoting to sellers in early June. The Mets might very well end up in that bucket come late July/early August, but unless they're 10 or more games back at that point, the expected return doesn't necessarily outweigh the faint playoff chances they might still harbor. That's sure to be an unpopular sentiment among a vocal portion of the fan base, but let's take a look at who and what the Mets could reasonably peddle. The list of appealing trade candidates isn't especially compelling (which is a big reason they're in this mess in the first place).
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope all is well!
- Looking forward to another of these, let's get going
NL West
- How many playoff teams will the division have? SD looks like they are crashing down to earth and Arizona just lost the only rotation help they could afford this season.
Anthony Franco
- Yeah I'll stick with two even though I don't know that I'd pick either Arizona or San Diego to make it individually. Still think their combined playoff chances are above 50% though
The Knuder
- Are the Padres cooked? And, if so, what are they gonna sell at the deadline?
Anthony Franco
- Obviously went into this more here:
- https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/06/padres-trade-rumors-deal-from-b...
- I expect Machado and Merrill to bounce back enough that they'll hang around and won't need to sell, but they clearly need multiple bats and at least one starter no matter what happens with Musgrove and Pivetta
- Don't really see the path to doing all that unless they dangle a reliever -- Estrada or Bradgley make the most sense but you could sell me on Morejon -- in more of a baseball trade
Cat_Herder
- Tigers sweep the Rays and haven't lost in June. Is this is a fluke or are they turning a corner with Torres, Carp, etc. back in the lineup?
-
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
BENEFITS- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
The Padres’ Problems Are Mounting
The past couple weeks have not been kind to the Padres. They now have a season-high five-game losing streak after being swept in today's matinee series finale in Philadelphia. It's their third four-plus game skid of the season and second in as many weeks, as they've dropped nine of ten.
Six of those have come at the hands of the Phillies, who have turned their season around after a brutal April and managerial change. Philadelphia obviously deserves credit for that, but San Diego's recent results have magnified the issues that existed even when they were winning games. They won 18 of 25 games in April despite an underperforming lineup and one of the weakest on-paper rotations in the National League. The roster deficiencies have begun to catch up.
San Diego's early-season success means they're still in playoff position. They're 32-29 and right in the thick of the Wild Card race. Two-thirds of the National League is above .500, so a team's placement in the standings can move quickly.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote about the Padres' struggles this morning, observing that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has never shied away from big swings at the deadline. Unless they go into a freefall over the next two months, they'll likely be tied to a number of big names on the trade market. The needs are stacking up.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
MLB Mailbag: Royals, Cubs, Jordan Walker, Braves
This week's mailbag attempts to find a blueprint for the Royals, considers the Cubs' needs, ponders a Jordan Walker extension, examines Braves trade targets, explains how minor league options work, and much more!
D.T. asks:
Another season lost for the Royals. Other than BWJ and possibly Caglianone, their draft picks, which have all been very high, have traditionally been complete busts. What will it take to turn this organization around?
To answer this question, I'll start by taking roughly an eight-hour drive from Kansas City to Milwaukee. The Brewers seem to be the model for small market contention. How are they pulling it off?
Let's look at 2023 to present for the Brewers. Their position players have totaled 83.7 WAR since 2023, excluding those who were negative in that metric. Almost three-quarters of that WAR is concentrated in seven players. Here's how they were acquired:
William Contreras: 19.6% of total WAR. The Brewers picked up outfielder Esteury Ruiz as part of the Josh Hader trade at the 2022 deadline. Ruiz was a 45-grade prospect lacking in power who didn't profile as a likely regular. The Brewers then inserted themselves into the Braves-A's Sean Murphy trade a few months later, prying a controllable Contreras loose from Atlanta after a breakout 2022 season. But the Brewers had Ruiz because they first had Hader, an All-Star dominant reliever with a year and a couple months of control left. They had Hader because former GM Doug Melvin snagged him in a deal that sent Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers to the Astros in 2015.
Putting aside the significant work the David Stearns regime did to develop Hader into a star, Stearns was also willing to trade Hader while the Brewers sat in first place with a 90% chance at the playoffs. Aside from the need for bold trades and strong player development, the Brewers willingly put their 2022 playoff chances at risk (and they did miss the playoffs that year) to set in motion of sequence of trades that netted them Contreras, who became crucial in their 2023-26 run.
The Royals had zero playoff shot at the time, but J.J. Picollo did pull off his own masterstroke trade by shipping Aroldis Chapman to Texas for Cole Ragans in 2023 before the calendar turned to July. But assuming Ragans bounces back health and production-wise, he's the type of player the Brewers would be looking at trading this winter or at next year's trade deadline. So my point is that selling high on Ragans, if possible, could help set the Royals up for more sustained success.
Christian Yelich: 11.5% of WAR. Stearns made a "go for it" trade to acquire Yelich in January 2018 with five years left on his contract, extending him a couple years later. To do so they gave up a 60-grade medium risk prospect in Lewis Brinson, a 50-grade high risk in Isan Diaz, and a 60 grade high risk in Monte Harrison. So the Brewers gave up their first, fifth, and ninth-ranked prospects, presumably well-regarded around the game, yet none of them panned out. Would the Royals put Blake Mitchell, Kendry Chourio, and another good prospect in a deal for a controllable 4-5 WAR Major Leaguer? They probably haven't drafted well enough to feel they could sacrifice those players.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! I'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to start submitting questions ahead of time, as always.
- Good afternoon! Let's get underway
Ewitkows
- Are we past the super 2 point of the season, when is Pratt and Jett coming up for the Brewers?
Steve Adams
- Super Two no longer matters for Pratt. He signed an eight-year extension, buying out all his arb years and multiple free agent years. He started the season really poorly but has been hitting well the past month or so. I have to think he's under consideration for a promotion before too terribly long.
- It could be a modest consideration with Williams, but he also just hasn't hit his way onto the big league roster yet. He looked to be getting going a few weeks ago but has cooled back down. Not necessarily worried about his long-term outlook, but he's not really forcing the issue so the Brewers haven't brought him up yet.
Chief
- How do the Royals turn things around?
Steve Adams
- I'm really not sure they can. 15 under .500, losers of six in a row, lots of key arms on the shelf (Bubic, Ragans, Estevez, Mears), big drop-offs from some key bats (Pasquantino, Perez... Garcia to a lesser extent). I just don't think they're getting back on track this year. I'd be listening on Wacha, Lugo, Strahm, Schreiber ... Bubic, if he's healthy.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
The Struggling Middle Tier Of Free Agent Starters
It's no secret the upcoming free agent class is one of the weakest in recent memory. Aside from Tarik Skubal, who should do very well despite the bone chips surgery that cost him a couple months in his walk year, there's a lack of impact talent. Most of the focus has been on the lackluster hitting group, but there haven't been many impending free agent starters staking a claim to a significant contract either.
Freddy Peralta has been the clear #2 arm in the class. He's having a solid but not exceptional first year with the Mets, struggling to complete six innings while posting a career-low 24% strikeout rate. Peralta still seems on track for the second-largest contract, in large part because none of the prime-aged pitchers have made a strong push to unseat him.
Among impending free agent starters, the top performers through the season's first two months are all on the older side. Kevin Gausman (age 36 in 2027), Michael King (32), and Nick Martinez (36) have been the top performers. 34-year-old Clay Holmes was among that group until a Spencer Jones comebacker broke his right fibula. All those pitchers are trending toward significant annual salaries, but only King has much of a chance at topping three years. Holmes' injury and Martinez's subpar strikeout rate could keep them each at two.
[Related: Which Impending Free Agents Are Actually Improving Their Stock?]
There has been a fairly defined cutoff for the market's willingness to go long term on pitchers. In the past decade, only four free agent starters 32 or older have commanded four or more years: Jacob deGrom, Blake Snell, Hyun Jin Ryu and Nick Pivetta. The Pivetta deal was three-year money spread out over four for luxury tax purposes. Four years at that age has essentially been reserved for aces.
By contrast, there have been 10 free agent contracts of at least four years for 31-year-old starters in that time. Teams have treated that as a meaningful cutoff, leaving the door open for a pitcher in that age range to emerge as the second- or third-best arm in the class.
MLBTR's early April free agent power rankings offer a snapshot of which players we thought had the best chance to push Peralta for the #2 arm available. Let's check in on every 31 and under starter who either made our initial Power Ranking or the honorable mentions. For all but one, the first two months of the season have been bleak.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Which Impending Free Agent Bats Are Actually Improving Their Stock?
In case you weren't aware, the upcoming offseason's free agent class is ... well, it's... not exactly the stronge-- ok, it's not good. It's a weak class. Despite being headlined by a two-time Cy Young winner, that was always expected to be the case. The fact that said Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal, is currently out following surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow only further dampens the group's overall earning power.
We're due for an update on our Free Agent Power Rankings. That'll likely be published at some point next week. Our power rankings are always based on total earning power rather than individual impact. If you're a 38-year-old ace, you probably won't rank as highly as a 28-year-old regular at third base, because that 28-year-old is going to have access to a much longer (and thus more lucrative overall) contract than said 38-year-old. Sorry Chris Sale, them's the breaks.
That said, it's been a brutal year for most of the names at the top of an already underwhelming free agent class -- pitchers and hitters alike. Skubal, as mentioned, had elbow surgery. He'll be back -- sooner than originally anticipated, by all accounts -- but he's not going to take home a third straight Cy Young Award. Bo Bichette can opt out of his Mets contract ... but he's hitting .225/.273/.317. Trevor Rogers missed time on the injured list and has a nearly 7.00 ERA through nine starts. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been terrific in May, but that only offsets an awful April. Tatsuya Imai came to MLB with plenty of hype and an opt-out-laden contract that potentially set him up to reenter free agency and cash in on a mega-deal next winter -- at least until he posted a 6.17 ERA through his first six MLB starts.
Any and all of these players have time to turn things around, and while the headline of this particular post is admittedly a bit hyperbolic, it's also true that most of the market's top bats aren't doing much to elevate their case. A big four months would make Chisholm's April a distant memory, but we're not there yet. Daulton Varsho has been better than average at the plate but hasn't shown the same power he did last year. Bichette's start has been dismal. Taylor Ward has followed up his 36-homer 2025 season by hitting two round-trippers through the first third of the 2026 season.
We'll cover a lot of the bigger names on the forthcoming update to our Power Rankings, but here's a look at some bats who probably won't make the list but are nonetheless trending in a positive direction. (Note that I'll be excluding some smaller-sample breakouts/resurgences for this list; Jorge Mateo's .324/.370/.471 slash looks great, but it's 73 plate appearances being propped up by a silly .455 BABIP and combined with a 30% strikeout rate. Let's not get too carried away.)
Brandon Lowe, 2B, Pirates
Pittsburgh's acquisition of Lowe in the three-team trade that sent Mike Burrows to Houston and Jacob Melton to Tampa Bay looks like one of the best moves of the offseason. The 31-year-old (32 in July) is in the midst of arguably the best season of his career. Lowe has belted 14 home runs in only 51 games. His 11.2% walk rate is the second-highest of his career, while his 23.7% strikeout rate is the second-lowest.
Not only are those excellent marks both relative to his career levels and the rest of the league, they both put a halt to some worrying trends. Lowe has always struck out a fair bit, but his 2022 mark of 22.9% looked like it might be a step in the right direction. Instead, it climbed to 27% from 2023-25 and did so while his walk rate plummeted to a career-worst 6.9% last year. Lowe still chases a bit too much, but he's made big gains on his in-zone contact rate and done so without sacrificing much in the way of hard-hit balls.
Durability will be key for Lowe, who played in only 415 of 648 possible games from 2022-25 (64%). However, he's currently on pace to match his career-high 39 home runs, set back in 2021, and he's doing so with the best strikeout-to-walk profile of his career.
If Lowe actually stays healthy and flirts with 40 homers, it's hard to imagine a scenario where he's not in the top 10 on our list. But even if his power output cools down, he's done a nice job improving his stock thus far.
The open market in modern baseball rarely rewards pure second basemen, which is what Lowe is at this point. He's played exactly three innings of outfield since the 2021 season wrapped, and he has all of 155 career innings at first base. It also rarely compensates 32-year-olds on long-term deals. Lowe has an uphill battle based on position and age, but he's still angling for a nice multi-year deal.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Hey all, hope you're well!
- I've been under the weather all week so going to keep this one right at an hour, let's get it going
NL Central
- I suggested in a previous chat that Nolan Arenado and Wilson Contreras would have the same fate as other hitters leaving STL/Busch, and it was met with skepticism. I had been hurt too often before. Nolan Arenado is running a wRC+ higher than all but one of his seasons in STL. Same for Willson. Is it just Busch or is it the dev team, or the hitting coaches? Seems crazy how often this happens.
Anthony Franco
- Contreras had stretches like this with STL. This is a little above his baseline but he's been a well above-average hitter everywhere he's been
- I think you have more of a case with Arenado's rebound but it's mostly coming at home, where Chase Field definitely plays more hitter-friendly than Busch, and probably has more to do with improved health than anything else
- Interesting debate with how little they've gotten from Gorman if they were better off holding Arenado than giving him away. Felt at the time like everyone needed the clean break, especially with where the organization was going, but you're probably looking at a win or two difference at third base in a season where the Cards are more competitive than they thought they'd be
Mike d
- Thoughts on a trade that would center around Matt McClain and top prospect for Duran? Boston and Cincy players could both use change of scenery.
Anthony Franco
- McLain's not doing anything for me at this point but I wouldn't give up a "top prospect" for Duran so I guess that's the bigger thing
AA
- my braves hit the ground running this year which is rare for my tenure.who do i trade for at the deadline? righty corner OF? starting pitcher? shortstop? bullpen? all seem like options but im ready for the big move. who is it and what will it cost?
-
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
BENEFITS- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker