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The Best Fits For Kyle Tucker

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Each offseason at MLBTR, we take a look at the potential markets for some of the top names in free agency. In 2025-26, there's no better place to start than with the man who held the top spot on our Free Agent Power Rankings all season and again took home the top spot on our annual Top 50 Free Agent rankings: outfielder Kyle Tucker.

Selected by the Astros with the No. 5 overall pick back in 2015, Tucker has been an impact hitter dating back to the 2019 season. He's slashed a combined .276/.361/.514 in that time (141 wRC+) and hasn't had any individual season that's seen him check in "worse" than 21% better than the average hitter. That came in 2019, his first partial season. Since 2021, Tucker has consistently shown enough pop to hit 30-plus homers. He's reached 25 steals three times along the way and continually upped his walk rate while also cutting his strikeout rate -- so much so that Tucker has walked more often than he's fanned over the past two seasons (15.3% to 15.2%).

Some weird, if not downright fluky injuries have hampered his reputation a bit. Tucker was playing at a full-fledged MVP level in 2024 before fouling a ball into his shin in mid-June. The Astros initially called it a contusion and then a bone bruise. Tucker's stay on the IL lingered for months, much to the chagrin of Houston fans who were perplexed by how the stated injury could take so long to mend. Finally, in September, the Astros revealed that Tucker had actually been diagnosed with a fracture somewhere along the way. It was the sort of vague, puzzling and frustrating injury absence that has become a recurring theme within the Astros organization.

A similar sequence played out in 2025, following Tucker's trade to the Cubs. He was a behemoth in the season's first three months, hitting .291/.396/.537 (157 wRC+) with 17 homers in his first 366 trips to the plate. Tucker fell into a deep slump, and after a couple months it was reported that he'd actually suffered a small fracture in his hand back in June. He played through it. Whether that injury was directly responsible or not, Tucker still "struggled" (by his standards) through July and August, batting a combined .232/.363/.345 (109 wRC+). He suffered a calf strain in early September and only made it back for the season's final three games. Tucker homered in the playoffs and generally hit well through 32 plate appearances.

It's not the sort of massive platform year a top free agent would want, but Tucker has been 43% better than average, by measure of wRC+, dating back to 2021. He's historically been an above-average right fielder. Tucker has made four All-Star teams, won two Silver Slugger Awards and also has a Gold Glove to his credit. When he's healthy, there's nothing he doesn't do well. He'll also hit the market ahead of his age-29 season.

A deal easily topping $400MM might've been the expectation had Tucker stayed healthy and maintained the production he posted through late June. The question now is more about whether he can reach the $400MM mark or whether he'll .... "only" ... come in with a deal in the mid-300s.

We know some of the teams that are going to be pursuing Tucker, but let's run through his likeliest landing spots, based on roster composition and payroll outlook, and see if there are any viable dark horse candidates to bring him aboard.

Known/Likely Suitors (listed alphabetically)

Blue Jays: The Blue Jays will probably prioritize retaining Bo Bichette first and foremost, not wanting to let a popular homegrown star escape when they have ample long-term payroll space. Executives, agents and pundits alike all expect an active winter from Toronto after the Jays came just two outs from winning their first World Series in more than three decades, however.

It sounds crazy, but the Jays probably have the payroll space to add both players long-term. Obviously, that's not a likely scenario, but it wouldn't be all that dissimilar from the Rangers' half-billion dollar spending spree four years ago, when Texas signed Corey Seager ($325MM), Marcus Semien ($175MM) and Jon Gray ($56MM) all in the same offseason.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon, everyone! Offseason is officially underway and some weird/wildly unexpected things are already happening! (I don't think anyone had "Mets trade Nimmo" on their bingo card, but if you did, kudos to you)
  • We'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to send in your questions ahead of time!
  • Good afternoon! Let's get underway!

Texas two step

  • People are posting Texas is in a rebuild, I say no.

Steve Adams

  • No, they're not. Brandon Nimmo said publicly today (this'll be on the site soon) that he wouldn't have waived his no-trade clause to go to a rebuilding team. The Rangers expressly told him this isn't a rebuild and that they're aiming for a swift return to postseason play.

Th Big Hurt

  • If the White Sox do make one of their catchers available who's a team in need of catching and what would return be?

Steve Adams

  • Rays, Nationals, Guardians, Padres, Rangers all come to mind. If they're trading Edgar Quero or (especially) Kyle Teel, the return has to include controllable, MLB-ready starting pitching.I don't think a team is going to give up a ready-made midrotation arm for Quero, given his defensive struggles and the pedestrian output at the plate, though. And it would take a pretty impactful young pitcher for me to really consider parting with Teel.

    I'm not surprised we've seen reports on both young catchers drawing trade interest, but I lean toward it being likelier that the ChiSox just hang onto both.

AZ

  • I’ve noticed in MLBTR articles that when player acquisition is discussed, the front office executive referenced is sometimes the POBO and sometimes the GM. Does that reflect differing duties within each front office or is it more of a name recognition type reason?

Steve Adams

  • We just reference whatever title the team has given him. In most cases, the top decision-maker in a front office now is the president of baseball operations. But some teams still just have "GM" as the top spot (Yankees/Cashman, White Sox/Getz, Pirates/Cherington to name a few)
  • Also have the Red Sox, who are the only org where "chief baseball officer" is the top title. The Twins originally gave that title to Derek Falvey as well way back in 2016, but they retitled him the more conventional POBO title in conjunction with one of his recent extensions.

Redlegs

  • Andrew Abbott and Chase Petty enuf for Soderstrom?

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Anthony Franco

  • Hey everyone, hope you're well!
  • Going to wrap right at 2:00 Central with the NT deadline but it's still pretty dead right now so we'll get this going a little early

Unclemike1526

  • Players who accept the qualifying offer have some kind of trade protection right? I mean a FA can't be traded for so long after they sign to prevent teams from signing them and trading right? Exactly what are the rules concerning those situations? Thanks

Anthony Franco

  • Yeah this is the same as if the player was a major league free agent who signed an MLB deal. Can't be traded without consent until June 15

A's Fan

  • Do you see any world where the A's could potentially be in the running for a Zac Gallen?  Say they considerably overpay, 5 Years/125 million.

Anthony Franco

  • Yeah I assume that'd get it done. Think it would go pretty badly though
  • I'm already basically out on Gallen. The stuff gets incrementally worse each year, assume the HR rate will continue to climb. He'd be my pick to lead MLB in home runs allowed next season if he signed in that park

Michael

  • I listened to the Podcast, and I feel Tucker is a hard one to predict.  But, it feels like he might be a player the Giants or Angels would seriously consider.  Thoughts?

Anthony Franco

  • Would probably have the Angels a little behind the Jays, Yankees and Giants as likeliest options -- Halos are still a little cluttered in the corner OF and they have so many other needs to address -- but neither would be all that surprising to me

Thompson

  • Final prediction for Jonah Heim and Adolis Garcia?

Anthony Franco

  • I'll go García NT. Heim tendered but traded later in the offseason
  • Hopefully the Rangers at least wait until the end of the chat to prove me wrong haha

Michael

  • Do you see any scenario in which AA is in on Bichette?  Or do you think the Dubón trade ends any other activity at SS for the Braves (Bichette or Kim)?

Anthony Franco

  • Bo would be so out of character for them. I don't see that one. Don't see why Dubón would take them out of the mix on HSK, just offers them cover if the asking price is outlandish
  • I'm not sure the post-surgery version of Kim is all that much better than Dubón frankly, but the league seems to like HSK more than I do

Bruce Stringbean

  • What kind of deals would you expect for Max Kepler and Austin Hays?

Anthony Franco

  • One year each. Around $7M for Kepler and $4-5M for Hays

El Chupacabra

  • Royals need a RH outfielder.  Morel, Fraley, and Bleday were recently DFA’d. Which should they go for?

Anthony Franco

  • Fraley and Bleday are lefty hitters and Morel's barely an outfielder, so if you're looking specifically for a righty bat, none of them
  • I think Fraley's the best player of the group and would be fine if they tossed him $3M as a platoon option in LF

Joe from Milwaukee

  • Jarren Duran for Freddy Peralta straight up. Why says no and why?

Anthony Franco

  • Hmm I see the logic for both but I'd pass if I were Milwaukee
  • Duran has the extra control years obviously but he's already around $8M, so the arb price is probably going to be $10-12M by '27 and above $15M two years from now. It's quickly into "should they listen to offers on Duran" territory for them
  • Obviously they could get something back down the line but the costliest arb years are going to have huge surplus value, and they'll get a pick after the first round in '27 if they hold Peralta all year (barring injury). I'd rather have the more valuable player for the upcoming season at that point

The Mayor

  • Could you see the Tigers adding Harrison Bader to the outfield mix?

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MLB Mailbag: Grayson Rodriguez-Taylor Ward Trade, Qualifying Offers, Duran, Abreu

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This week's mailbag gets into the Grayson Rodriguez-Taylor Ward trade, the four accepted qualifying offers, the trade value of Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu, and much more.

Nick asks:

Hi, what is Mike Elias thinking selling low on Grayson? Ward is a good, not great, hitter, and Rodriguez's ceiling is an ace. You guys have been calling for a Singer-Ward swap and I feel like 4 years of Rodriguez, even with his injuries, would have way more value than one year of Singer.

Zach asks:

For real, what's with trading Grayson Rodriguez?!?

In making this trade, Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias made a big bet against Rodriguez.

When the Orioles drafted Rodriguez 11th overall out of high school in 2018, the club was a few months away from replacing Dan Duquette with Elias as the head of baseball operations.  So Elias wasn't involved with that pick, but he is intimately familiar with Rodriguez's career and health history.

Once one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, Rodriguez's injuries began with a 2022 Grade 2 lat strain that cost him three months and pushed back his expected Major League debut.  He was healthy in 2023, had some success in the Majors, and totaled 165 innings - the only time in his career he's topped 117 frames.

Rodriguez missed 19 days with shoulder inflammation in May 2024, and then saw his season end that year on July 31st due to what was initially called a mild lat strain.  No one could've guessed that quality start against the Blue Jays would close the book on Rodriguez's Orioles career before his 25th birthday.

The big righty supposedly entered 2025 without restrictions, and claimed he wasn't hurt when his velocity was down in spring training.  But in March he was diagnosed with elbow inflammation, compounded in April by another "mild lat strain."  It was initially thought Rodriguez would return in the second half, but he experienced elbow discomfort while rehabbing and was shut down.  After multiple opinions were gathered, Rodriguez's 2025 season ended with right elbow debridement surgery on August 11th.

As Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun reported, Elias described Rodriguez's health this way at the end of September: "There’s nothing medically to suggest that he won’t be ready, and he’s very determined and not happy about what happened last year."  Elias expressed some caution but ultimately said, "I am bullish on the situation."  The procedure involved removing bone chips from Rodriguez's elbow.

Rodriguez spoke to reporters yesterday.  Here's an excerpt from Jeff Fletcher of the OC Register:

"Rodriguez said he is “absolutely” confident that he can pitch a full season this year. He said the bone spurs had been an issue for “three or four years,” and he believes that they led to the lat injuries. “Just being able to get those out of there, my arm feels great right now throwing,” Rodriguez said. “There’s really no question for me to be ready for spring training.”"

I'm searching for an explanation why the pitching-needy Orioles would trade a pre-arbitration mid-rotation type starter with 238 2/3 pretty good big league innings to his name and four years of team control remaining for one year of what looks like, at best, a 2.5 WAR outfielder.

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Seven Arbitration Trade Possibilities

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MLBTR published our annual list of non-tender candidates last night. The Astros and Braves already swapped infielders in the Mauricio Dubón/Nick Allen trade with the NT deadline 24 hours away. That indicates both players will be tendered by their new teams but may not have been offered contracts by their original clubs (especially Dubón with Houston).

Essentially everyone who was included on the non-tender list could be a trade candidate. There are a few who are obviously not going to attract any interest at their projected price because of injuries or underperformance (e.g. Nathaniel Lowe, Evan Phillips). Teams could shop any of their more borderline candidates before tomorrow. The Rangers are doing so with Adolis García and Jonah Heim. The Astros would undoubtedly be open to moving on from Jesús Sánchez. Players like Ryan Mountcastle, Jonathan India and Luis García Jr. seem likelier than not to be cut loose if no trade comes together.

They're not the only somewhat costly arbitration-eligible players who could be on the move. There are a few others who didn't strike us at MLBTR as plausible non-tender candidates but wouldn't be especially surprising trade possibilities. These players should have modest surplus value yet still might be better served with a change of scenery or on a team that has more budgetary flexibility to accommodate a mid-level salary. Projected salaries are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Spencer Steer, Reds 1B ($4.5MM projection, controllable through 2028)

Acquired from the Twins as part of the 2022 Tyler Mahle deadline deal, Steer looked like a building block of the Cincinnati lineup a couple seasons ago. He hit .271/.356/.464 with 37 doubles and 23 home runs in his '23 rookie season. Even with questions about his long-term defensive fit, the bat looked like it'd play.

The numbers have backed up over the past two years. Steer has still reached the 20-homer mark in both seasons, but his rate metrics are down across the board. His batting average has respectively landed at .225 and .238. The on-base percentage has been below .320 in both years. Steer's overall slugging output is also down despite the similar home run tallies. He has hit fewer doubles (21 this season) as his batted ball metrics have regressed.

Steer graded well defensively at first base and was a finalist for the NL Gold Glove award. That's a nice development, but he's still limited to bat-first positions that require him to hit to be productive. He came up as a third baseman but hasn't played there in two years. Steer is athletic enough to play some corner outfield, but his grades out there have been poor. He also played through a shoulder injury this year that impacted his throwing, leading the Reds to be cautious about how much work they gave him anywhere other than first base. Cincinnati should be in the market for an impact bat, and first base has free agent possibilities ranging from Pete Alonso to Ryan O'Hearn. That could make Steer expendable. The Marlins, Padres, Rangers, Red Sox and Diamondbacks are speculative trade partners.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

By | at

Anthony Franco

  • Hey all, hope you're doing well! We can get going a few minutes early

The Knuder

  • I've been asking this question since before yesterday's ownership news, so maybe the Pads' calculus has changed, but I might as well keep asking: what would an extension for Laureano past 2026 look like, and will the Padres offer it?

Anthony Franco

  • You're buying out ages 32+ on a corner bat coming off a very good year but with a lot of inconsistency. I imagine he'd happily sign up for Profar money (3/42) right now. Three years in the mid-30s seems reasonable if you're making that commitment a year in advance
  • Not sure the Padres really need to do that -- I'd rather let him play it out -- but it's not like it impacts the '26 budget so I guess I wouldn't be super surprised if the team wanted to lock him up

Thank you for the chat!

  • Can Ketel Marte play SS?

Anthony Franco

  • I don't think he can even really play second base haha
  • Dude can rake though

JC

  • Would a package around Seth Hernandez entice the Nats to send Abrams to Pittsburgh? Ditto for Keller to Baltimore for Westburg?

Anthony Franco

  • Hernandez as a starting point on Abrams seems reasonable enough. Teams are going to have varying opinions on guys who are that far away, but if the Nats feel like Hernandez has a chance to be a top-of-the-rotation starter, it'd be tough to pass on the upside
  • I don't think Keller's close to getting Westburg. He's a solid pitcher whose contract has a little surplus value. Westburg's a pre-arb, above-average everyday third baseman. Much rather have the latter

Rickey35

  • The A's need to spend about 30-35 mill this off season.  What do you think they do with the money?  Give Kurtz a Roman Anthony type deal or any trades rumor, free agent rumors that are likely?

Anthony Franco

  • I imagine the A's would be on board giving Kurtz that deal. Skeptical the player would. Kurtz has a longer MLB track record than Anthony did at the time -- though no one doubted that Anthony would be great -- and already has a full service year
  • He's also an Excel client and for all the talk about how Boras doesn't like extensions, I can't find any examples of Excel clients signing a pre-arb extension in the past 20 years. Precedents get broken, but Kurtz already banked a huge signing bonus on draft day and is going to do well in the pre-arb bonus pool
  • A low nine-figure extension for Jacob Wilson seems more viable to me and something I could see the A's pursuing. They'll obviously be in on pitching and a veteran infielder. Feels like they should be able to leverage some short-term payroll space to trade for a costlier starter with upside (e.g. Keller, Ray) if that guy's available

Free Agents

  • When do you expect significant free agents to begin signing contracts?  Any inclination as to who might sign first of the bigger / top 25 names?

Anthony Franco

  • Guessing we'll get two or three around Thanksgiving. A lot of the early smoke has been on relievers, so I'll guess Díaz or Williams to be the first shoe to drop

Bruce

  • Thanks for the chat.  What’s the latest regarding the Rangers and Heim/Garcia? If they tender a contract do they have to either ultimately reach agreement or arbitrate (and the Rangers notoriously never arbitrate).  Does  that mean they probably non-tender both unless they can reach an agreement to cut their salaries prior to the tender deadline?

Anthony Franco

  • They need to decide by next Friday whether to tender a contract. That does then commit them to either agreeing to deals or going to a hearing, yes
  • If they agree to a deal, the contract becomes fully guaranteed. If they go to a hearing, they can still get out of it for 45 days termination pay during Spring Training (which is what happened with the Giants and J.D. Davis a couple years ago)
  • But that's a suboptimal outcome. Termination pay still costs a few million, especially with what García's salary would be, and there presumably aren't great alternatives sitting around in mid-March

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Looking For A Match In A CJ Abrams Trade

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The Nationals are in a new era. Their stalled rebuild led ownership to fire president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez. Paul Toboni is now leading a front office for the first time, while the club brought in a rookie manager in 33-year-old Blake Butera. It's easy to imagine Toboni making a couple significant trades to add a needed influx of talent to the farm system.

"We're in the business right now of just bringing in as much value as we can to the organization," the new baseball operations president said from the GM Meetings (link via Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post). "However that may look, we’ll stay disciplined to that." The most obvious place would be to entertain conversations on left-hander MacKenzie Gore and shortstop CJ Abrams. Gore is down to two years of arbitration control and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $4.7MM salary. Abrams' $5.6MM projection is a little higher, but he has three years of remaining control.

This feels like the opportune time to move Gore. Any team in a short-term contention window could be interested. He's at least a mid-rotation arm with the upside of a #2 starter. The Nationals could hear from two-thirds of the league about his availability.

Whether to trade Abrams is a tougher call. The Nats presumably expect to compete for a playoff spot within three years. There's less injury risk with a position player than there is with a pitcher. The Nationals could view the 25-year-old shortstop as the kind of core piece whom they're more or less unwilling to trade. At the same time, Abrams has been maddeningly inconsistent over the past couple seasons. He's a gifted athlete who is nevertheless prone to defensive miscues. This may just depend on how a Toboni-led front office that didn't acquire Abrams views the player.

Abrams is coming off a .257/.315/.433 line with 19 home runs through 635 plate appearances. He has hit between 18-20 longballs in each of the past three seasons. Abrams has stolen 31 bases in consecutive seasons and ranks sixth in MLB with 109 steals since the start of 2023. He won't walk much, but he puts the ball in play with middle-of-the-road exit velocities. At his best, he looks the part of a top-of-the-order spark plug. He's coming off a second straight season in which he was only at that level for a few months. Abrams was a star-level performer in the first half of each of the past two years, but he slumped after the All-Star Break both times.

He's not much easier to pin down defensively. Abrams certainly has the frame and athleticism of a shortstop. He has been far too mistake-prone, however, with only Elly De La Cruz committing more errors over the past few seasons. Most of them have been related to poor accuracy. Abrams was charged with 18 throwing errors this year, three more than anyone else. He has committed 38 throwing errors over the past three seasons. As one might expect given all the easy misses, Statcast has graded Abrams as by far the sport's worst defensive shortstop in that time.

Other teams could have differing views on Abrams' defensive projection. There are presumably some who feel he's non-viable at shortstop and would only consider him at second base or as a potential center field conversion. Others could feel the throwing issues can be cleaned up with mechanical tweaks. They could also be motivated out of some amount of desperation considering the lack of alternatives. Bo Bichette could command upwards of $200MM and faces his own defensive questions. Only one team can sign Ha-Seong Kim, and he doesn't have anywhere near the same offensive ceiling that Abrams has flashed. There aren't many clear options on the trade front.

If the Nationals were to trade Abrams, which clubs should make the biggest push? Let's split them into a few groups. Teams are listed alphabetically within each tier.

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MLB Mailbag: Orioles, Tigers, Trades

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This week's mailbag gets into Orioles starting pitcher targets, whether the Tigers have championship core pieces beyond Tarik Skubal, many hypothetical trade scenarios, and much more.

Tim asks:

I appreciate all the work you put into the Top 50 Free Agent list, as well as the Top 40 Trade Candidates list. My question is: do you really expect the Orioles to pursue any top of the rotation pitchers? I have a hard time believing Mike Elias will pursue such pitchers via Free Agency, as evidenced by his risk-averse history. Please calm my fears that we'll have a repeat of last offseason's lackluster moves.

Ben asks:

After their tepid foray into the starting pitching market last year (Sugano, Morton, Gibson) yielded less than stellar results, do you see Baltimore adjusting their approach on the starting pitching market by targeting more high-end arms? If so, do you think a trade or free agent signing is more likely?

These questions work well together, because we're trying to guess whether Elias will repeat his over-cautious approach to the rotation, or learn from it.

The Orioles were in on all the big names last offseason, but apparently didn't like the prices on any of them.  By January 3rd, the Orioles had committed to Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton.  The only good starting pitcher remaining on the market at that point was Nick Pivetta.

Part of Elias' folly was reliance on Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin.  Injuries have pretty much been constant throughout Rodriguez's big league career.  Eflin had a run of good health from 2023-24, but he was also dealing with chronic knee and back pain.  While he'd pitched really well for the Orioles in nine regular season starts in '24, his success was mostly about strike-throwing.

I've written before in this space that holding on to a well-regarded prospect who ultimately does not pan out is just as bad as trading one who does.  Elias is not exactly going to get fired for holding on to Heston Kjerstad or Coby Mayo last winter, but you have to wonder whether Garrett Crochet or Jesus Luzardo could've become Orioles.  The Orioles gave up Joey Ortiz and DL Hall to get Corbin Burnes, but didn't take a similar chance last winter.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! I'll get going at 3pm CT, give or take a minute or two. If you've got questions about our Top 50 agent list, our Top 40 trade candidate list, or anything more broadly pertaining to the offseason, let's discuss!
  • Greetings! Let's get goingn
  • going, eve
  • Oh my
  • Going, even*********
  • Bad omen for the chat today, ha

Rangers13

  • What would Padres want for Campusano?

Steve Adams

  • I assume Campusano can be had for little to no return at this point. He's a non-tender candidate. He demolished AAA pitching all season while the Padres trotted out Elias Diaz and Martin Maldonado ... then traded for another light-hitting, glove-first catcher at the deadline (Freddy Fermin)
  • If they had any faith he could catch in the majors, he'd have gotten another look this summer

Dana Brown

  • what type of return could the Astros get if they pick up half of Christian Walker's salary, and what type of return for Jake Meyers if he is available?

Steve Adams

  • Picking up half of Walker's contract still means he'd cost $20MM over two years, which is more than I think he'd get in free agency right now. I don't think they can move him if they're only eating half the deal (and, if they did find a taker at that price point, there'd be zero return)Meyers is cheap with a solid to good glove in CF, an average-ish bat and above-average baserunning contributions. He's two years from free agency. I don't think he's going to command a massive haul, but I think they could flip him for a back-end option in the rotation that's more or less ready right now.

Blue Jays

  • Aside from Bo, who do you think are the main blue jays targets this offseason (trade or free-agent)?

Steve Adams

  • I fully expect the Blue Jays to be in on basically every prominent free agent, including Kyle Tucker. They can accommodate him on the payroll. They don't have a set option in right field. (Barger can play 3B.) They just came two outs away from a World Series and have a bunch of extra revenue as a result.They also have multiple rotation vacancies -- and they were gifted a playoff-caliber starter when Shane Bieber exercised a player option that was somewhere around 10% of his market value (net $12MM for him). Still can't believe that.

    They're flush with cash, vibes are good, fan support through the roof. Free agents will want to go there after the WS appearance. No one's off the table.

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Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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The 119-loss Rockies were one of the worst teams in baseball history.  Can a front office shakeup (and an unexpected choice as the new baseball operations head) get the organization pointed in the right direction?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Kris Bryant, 1B/OF: $78MM through 2028
  • Ezequiel Tovar, SS: $56.5MM through 2030 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $23MM club option for 2031)
  • Kyle Freeland, SP: $16MM through 2026 (deal contains conditional player option for 2027)
  • Antonio Senzatela, SP/RP: $12MM through 2026 ($14MM club option for 2027)

Option Decisions

2026 financial commitments: $59MM
Total future commitments: $162.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The fact that Colorado is the last Offseason Outlook entry published (even after the World Series teams) speaks to the unusual length of the team's front office search.  The free agent market opened yesterday, and the leaderless baseball operations department has already been making some transactions since the World Series officially ended, though the decisions to decline mutual options on Thairo Estrada and Kyle Farmer were both routine and expected.

The Rockies' struggles are usually attributed to owner Dick Monfort's extreme loyalty to longtime employees, resulting in an organization that has fallen behind the curve in fresh ideas and in most aspects of modern roster construction.  Three straight 100-loss seasons and a gruesome 43-119 record in 2025 was enough to make even the notoriously insular Monfort realize that changes needed to be made.  Manager Bud Black was fired back in May, and GM Bill Schmidt was let go at season's end.

This winter marked the first time that Monfort had actually done a formal external search for a head of baseball operations.  Dan O'Dowd was already the general manager when the Monfort brothers bought the team in 2005.  O'Dowd continued in the job until 2014, and successors Jeff Bridich and Schmidt were internal promotions.

Walker Monfort's new role as Colorado's executive VP led to some inevitable accusations of nepotism, though reports indicate that the younger Monfort (Dick's son) has been pushing for the Rox to adopt a new approach.  The impact could be seen in Paul DePodesta's hiring as president of baseball operations, plus the fact that the other known candidates for the top job in baseball ops -- Guardians assistant GM Matt Forman, Diamondbacks assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye, Royals assistant GM Scott Sharp, and former Astros general manager James Click -- had no prior ties to Colorado's organization.

In classic Rockies fashion, however, the front office search wasn't exactly routine.  It seemed like Forman and Sawdaye were the finalists, except reports then emerged that the two were out of the running, with Sawdaye reportedly turning down a job offer and Forman taking himself out of the process.  Former Rockies reliever Adam Ottavino unexpectedly then emerged as a known candidate, throwing another curveball into the process that was ultimately ended when yesterday's news broke about DePodesta's hiring.

DePodesta has two decades of MLB front office experience with five different teams, including a two-year (2004-05) run as the Dodgers' general manager and five years working as Billy Beane's chief lieutenant with the Moneyball-era Athletics.  It's the kind of distinguished resume that most Colorado fans were probably hoping to see from the Rockies' hire....except for the oddity of DePodesta spending the last decade working outside of baseball as the Cleveland Browns' chief strategy officer.

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