MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be holding a live chat today at 2:00 pm Central, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers!
The A's have made a point of locking up their core players as they target 2028 for their move to Las Vegas. Over the past 14 months, they've signed extensions with Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, Tyler Soderstrom and Jacob Wilson. They're looking to continue that run, as both Martín Gallegos of MLB.com and Mark Anderson of The Associated Press wrote this week that the team could still try to get deals done with Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers.
The extensions serve a couple purposes for the A's. They lock in what could be an elite lineup with less concern among the fanbase about them tearing the roster down the way they did after the 2021 season. They're largely backloaded deals, which raises the team's competitive balance payroll (based on annual value) to avoid a revenue sharing grievance without costing as much in salary while they're playing in Sacramento.
The A's have increased their short-term spending with Luis Severino signing and trades for Jeffrey Springs and Jeff McNeil, but their projected $139MM luxury tax number is dramatically higher than their actual $88MM estimated 2026 payroll (via RosterResource). The bills will come due down the line, at which point the organization is projecting a revenue spike from their new stadium.
All four of the recent extensions look like nice bits of business for the team -- Wilson's in particular. They could have a tougher time finding agreeable price points with Kurtz and Langeliers. Both have strong leverage, and they're represented by a pair of agencies that rarely sign extensions. That said, let's take a look at what kind of prices it might take to get talks rolling.
This week's mailbag gets into the Dodgers' rotation, the Phillies' outfield, my favorite and least favorite moves of the offseason, the Twins' and Tigers' approaches, the Astros' infield logjam, and the Cardinals' return for Brendan Donovan.
Drew asks:
Is there a world where the Dodgers get involved on another SP? Dodgers are clearly planning to "load manage" the starters in addition to running the 6 man and Friedman has publicly stated that in a perfect world he is a seller at the deadline (à la Dustin may last year). Why not sign Giolito, Bassitt, or even Gallen to an above-market 1 year salary and try to flip them at the deadline (I'm assuming that the QO for Gallen is slightly mitigated because of the prior penalties for Diaz and Tucker).
I'm excited to see Stone and Ryan but it's still not clear what they will look like post injuries. This would theoretically be another way to leverage the cash on hand advantage and keep the farm restocked given the current draft pick penalties they have to deal with.
Greg asks:
How in the world will the Dodgers manage to limit the innings of their top starters this season? Will a 6-man rotation be enough?
Let's take a look at the Dodgers' rotation:
Dodgers starters ranked third-lowest in MLB with 783 1/3 regular season innings last year. Clearly that isn't a problem for them; set 800 as the goal and assume you'll need six different guys who can manage 50+ innings in relief. Is the current group set up to reach 800 innings, and is another addition worth pursuing?
Steve Adams
Philly A's
Steve Adams
Arthur Dent
Steve Adams
John B
Steve Adams
I'd love the Bader deal if they'd acquired a more impactful bat somewhere else, but adding him and Arraez to a lineup that already looked a bit light isn't all that encouraging.
wiseoldfool
Yet another offseason of hyperaggressive spending and mind-boggling CBT payrolls from the Dodgers and Mets (and, this winter, the Blue Jays) has led to increased talk of competitive balance ahead of the impending conclusion of the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement. Owners are again expected to push for a salary cap -- though that's a perpetual goal and would absolutely have been the case regardless of how the usual suspects spent in free agency this winter -- and they'll have plenty of fan support in that regard.
Fans, particularly those of small market teams, feel a clear sense of defeatism, knowing their clubs will rarely (or in some cases never) be players for the top names in free agency. The Dodgers were close enough to losing in the World Series that it's not fair to say they can freely buy themselves a championship -- the Mets spent more in 2025 and missed the postseason entirely -- but it's fair to say they're spending enough to give themselves something like a 95% chance of making the postseason and entering as the favorite.
The other side of the cap argument, of course, is that it would assuredly usher in the implementation of a salary floor -- a level at which teams must spend on payroll or else be subject to some degree of penalization. There's already a weak "floor" in place for revenue-sharing clubs, but it seems to lack any semblance of teeth. The A's felt compelled to spend enough to push their CBT payroll up to $105MM last year -- roughly 1.5 times the amount they receive annually from revenue-sharing -- but that was seemingly because they're the only club to have been actually stripped of revenue-sharing status in the past. The Marlins were supposedly in the same boat this winter, and they've thumbed their nose at the idea of spending, as evidenced by a CBT payroll in the $80MM range.
I can see the arguments for a cap/floor system. I'm skeptical that it would actually force the game's lowest-payroll clubs to spend in meaningful ways, but that's another topic -- and one that we'll surely debate ad nauseum in the year to come as CBA talks intensify.
But whether it's a salary floor, firm penalties for not spending revenue-sharing funds in tangible ways, or greater access to draft/international resources for non-playoff clubs who remain competitive, something has to give. Right now, there's at least one entire division content to sit on its hands as the five respective front offices seemingly embody that same level of defeatism felt by their small- and mid-market fan bases.
If the Dodgers are a budding dynasty, it's unequivocally fair to say that's in part because of their limitless spending capacity. But it's also because there are teams seemingly content to throw their hands up and ask, "why even bother?" At a certain point, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy -- and I'd argue that at least with regard to the AL Central, we've reached that point. Let's look at each AL Central club's offseason to date.
Anthony Franco
Drake
Anthony Franco
Arise, Sir Loin of Beef
Anthony Franco
Joshua
This week's mailbag gets into the Giants' rotation, why Framber Valdez remains unsigned, a thorough look at where Eugenio Suarez could land, the Tigers and Nationals, and more collective bargaining thoughts.
Paul asks:
Who makes sense for the Giants to add to their rotation?
Daryn asks:
Why is Framber Valdez not signed yet? He is the best starting pitcher in the market. Is it his age and asking for a lot of years, or it is the clubhouse thing we hear about?
At present, the Giants' rotation looks like this:
Like every team, they'll need reinforcements for injuries. Ray is 34 and 2025 was his first full season in three years. Houser is 33 and tossed a career-high 164 1/3 innings last year (Triple-A included). Roupp missed 24 days with elbow inflammation and then saw his season end in August with a deep bone bruise to his knee. Mahle missed over three months with shoulder soreness.
On the Mahle conference call, Giants GM Zack Minasian said, "I don’t know if we’re ever done. I think we’re very comfortable with the five that we have and then the bundle of arms behind them. Our depth is in a much better spot than it was at the beginning of the offseason, so we’re happy with where we’re at. We’ll keep working at it, but we do think this is a solid five-man rotation going into the spring." That quote comes via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
That bundle behind the starting five may include Hayden Birdsong, Kai-Wei Teng, Carson Seymour, Blade Tidwell, and Carson Whisenhunt, all of whom made big league starts last year. Trevor McDonald and Keaton Winn are options as well.
The Giants are paying $21MM in AAV for Houser and Mahle this year, but neither can be counted on for a 2-WAR season. I don't know that Zac Gallen would be enough of an improvement over the Giants' existing back-end options, but slotting Framber Valdez in behind Webb would be huge. The Giants have a good team at present, but Valdez could add a crucial three wins over whoever he replaces.
Back in November, Giants owner Greg Johnson expressed reluctance to sign a pitcher to a long-term deal. Just before that, MLBTR predicted a five-year deal for the 32-year-old Valdez. Ranger Suarez signed a five-year deal two weeks ago, so it is possible to get that type of contract in January. That said, we haven't seen a free agent starter get five years on January 28th or later since Yu Darvish in 2018. As we get closer to pitchers and catchers reporting, the chance of Valdez getting a true five-year deal like Suarez decrease.
There are several factors that likely contribute to Valdez being unsigned on January 28th:
The Guardians hammered out their third extension with José Ramírez over the weekend. While the team still hasn't announced the contract as of Wednesday evening, it reportedly runs through his age-39 season. It more or less confirms that Ramírez will be a one-team superstar, but the biggest impact in the short term is that it involved a restructure to give the team some spending room.
Ramírez will reportedly be paid $25MM annually over the next seven seasons. $10MM of each season's salary is deferred until 2036. He'd been slated for a non-deferred $21MM salary this season. They saved $6MM against the 2026 payroll and $8MM and $10MM, respectively, over the following two years.
Any mention of the Guardians spending money is going to be met with sarcasm and skepticism. That's warranted given their usual spending habits, but this year's payroll would be extreme even by their standards. There'll almost certainly be a notable acquisition or two before Opening Day.
Cleveland has 12 players, including their arbitration class, signed for the upcoming season. Their salaries break down as follows:
They'll also pay the Blue Jays $2.75MM as a condition of the Myles Straw trade. It's a total of $66.5MM in commitments, and even that dramatically overstates how much they'll actually spend. Ramírez is being paid $15MM this year, dropping their short-term obligations to $56.5MM.
There's also a strong chance they don't wind up paying anything to Clase. His criminal trial for alleged game-fixing won't begin until May, but it's possible MLB imposes its own discipline before the start of the season. It'd be a shock if the star reliever played another MLB game and Cleveland brass will obviously hope for the league to level a suspension that gets them off the hook for next year's salary.
If that happens, they'll be down to $50.5MM in guaranteed commitments. Filling out the roster with players on near league minimum salaries would push them into the $63-65MM range. According to The Associated Press, the Marlins were the only team with a season-opening payroll below $74.9MM last year. Cleveland ranked 25th in MLB with a $102.5MM mark.
Steve Adams
Mr Redlegs
Steve Adams
Amazins
Steve Adams
Drake
Steve Adams
Al
For much of the offseason, the focus surrounding the Astros was how they'd improve their rotation and general starting pitching depth. It was an understandable qualm. Framber Valdez became a free agent, and while he's still lingering on the market, a reunion with Houston never felt all that likely, given the contract he'll likely command and the team's aversion to long-term deals of that magnitude. Hayden Wesneski had Tommy John surgery late last May. Ronel Blanco followed a couple weeks later. Lefty Brandon Walter was an out-of-the-blue success story ... at least until he also underwent Tommy John surgery -- his in mid-September.
The 'Stros have done well to bolster the starting staff. Their surprise deal with NPB star Tatsuya Imai gives them a potential high-end arm to replace Valdez. A trade acquisition of Pittsburgh righty Mike Burrows plugged a young, controllable arm into the fourth spot on the staff. Cheap rolls of the dice on former top prospect Nate Pearson and former D-backs/Royals farmhand Ryan Weiss, who's coming back over after a terrific two years in the Korea Baseball Organization, added some depth.
A six-man group consisting of Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Imai, Burrows, Weiss and Lance McCullers Jr. could be solid -- particularly if McCullers can be even serviceable. Depth arms abound. Spencer Arrighetti, J.P. France, AJ Blubaugh, Colton Gordon, Jason Alexander and Miguel Ullola are all on the 40-man roster and all have minor league options remaining. Twenty-three-year-old Ethan Pecko had a nice season between Double-A and Triple-A last season and could get a look in 2026.
There are still clearly some question marks, but the Astros added an intriguing young arm (Burrows), a high-upside international star (Imai) and an under-the-radar 29-year-old coming off a big KBO showing (Weiss). Things look much better than they did a few months back.
The same can't be said in the outfield. To this point in the offseason, the biggest move the Astros have made, outfield-wise, is non-tendering Chas McCormick. Unless the Astros plan to use Yordan Alvarez in left field on the regular -- which is very unlikely to be the case -- it's easy to argue that they don't have even one everyday outfielder who can be confidently projected as a league-average hitter.
MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com
Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information
scroll to top
