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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Anthony Franco

  • Hey all, hope you're doing well! We can get going a few minutes early

The Knuder

  • I've been asking this question since before yesterday's ownership news, so maybe the Pads' calculus has changed, but I might as well keep asking: what would an extension for Laureano past 2026 look like, and will the Padres offer it?

Anthony Franco

  • You're buying out ages 32+ on a corner bat coming off a very good year but with a lot of inconsistency. I imagine he'd happily sign up for Profar money (3/42) right now. Three years in the mid-30s seems reasonable if you're making that commitment a year in advance
  • Not sure the Padres really need to do that -- I'd rather let him play it out -- but it's not like it impacts the '26 budget so I guess I wouldn't be super surprised if the team wanted to lock him up

Thank you for the chat!

  • Can Ketel Marte play SS?

Anthony Franco

  • I don't think he can even really play second base haha
  • Dude can rake though

JC

  • Would a package around Seth Hernandez entice the Nats to send Abrams to Pittsburgh? Ditto for Keller to Baltimore for Westburg?

Anthony Franco

  • Hernandez as a starting point on Abrams seems reasonable enough. Teams are going to have varying opinions on guys who are that far away, but if the Nats feel like Hernandez has a chance to be a top-of-the-rotation starter, it'd be tough to pass on the upside
  • I don't think Keller's close to getting Westburg. He's a solid pitcher whose contract has a little surplus value. Westburg's a pre-arb, above-average everyday third baseman. Much rather have the latter

Rickey35

  • The A's need to spend about 30-35 mill this off season.  What do you think they do with the money?  Give Kurtz a Roman Anthony type deal or any trades rumor, free agent rumors that are likely?

Anthony Franco

  • I imagine the A's would be on board giving Kurtz that deal. Skeptical the player would. Kurtz has a longer MLB track record than Anthony did at the time -- though no one doubted that Anthony would be great -- and already has a full service year
  • He's also an Excel client and for all the talk about how Boras doesn't like extensions, I can't find any examples of Excel clients signing a pre-arb extension in the past 20 years. Precedents get broken, but Kurtz already banked a huge signing bonus on draft day and is going to do well in the pre-arb bonus pool
  • A low nine-figure extension for Jacob Wilson seems more viable to me and something I could see the A's pursuing. They'll obviously be in on pitching and a veteran infielder. Feels like they should be able to leverage some short-term payroll space to trade for a costlier starter with upside (e.g. Keller, Ray) if that guy's available

Free Agents

  • When do you expect significant free agents to begin signing contracts?  Any inclination as to who might sign first of the bigger / top 25 names?

Anthony Franco

  • Guessing we'll get two or three around Thanksgiving. A lot of the early smoke has been on relievers, so I'll guess Díaz or Williams to be the first shoe to drop

Bruce

  • Thanks for the chat.  What’s the latest regarding the Rangers and Heim/Garcia? If they tender a contract do they have to either ultimately reach agreement or arbitrate (and the Rangers notoriously never arbitrate).  Does  that mean they probably non-tender both unless they can reach an agreement to cut their salaries prior to the tender deadline?

Anthony Franco

  • They need to decide by next Friday whether to tender a contract. That does then commit them to either agreeing to deals or going to a hearing, yes
  • If they agree to a deal, the contract becomes fully guaranteed. If they go to a hearing, they can still get out of it for 45 days termination pay during Spring Training (which is what happened with the Giants and J.D. Davis a couple years ago)
  • But that's a suboptimal outcome. Termination pay still costs a few million, especially with what García's salary would be, and there presumably aren't great alternatives sitting around in mid-March

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Looking For A Match In A CJ Abrams Trade

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The Nationals are in a new era. Their stalled rebuild led ownership to fire president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez. Paul Toboni is now leading a front office for the first time, while the club brought in a rookie manager in 33-year-old Blake Butera. It's easy to imagine Toboni making a couple significant trades to add a needed influx of talent to the farm system.

"We're in the business right now of just bringing in as much value as we can to the organization," the new baseball operations president said from the GM Meetings (link via Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post). "However that may look, we’ll stay disciplined to that." The most obvious place would be to entertain conversations on left-hander MacKenzie Gore and shortstop CJ Abrams. Gore is down to two years of arbitration control and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $4.7MM salary. Abrams' $5.6MM projection is a little higher, but he has three years of remaining control.

This feels like the opportune time to move Gore. Any team in a short-term contention window could be interested. He's at least a mid-rotation arm with the upside of a #2 starter. The Nationals could hear from two-thirds of the league about his availability.

Whether to trade Abrams is a tougher call. The Nats presumably expect to compete for a playoff spot within three years. There's less injury risk with a position player than there is with a pitcher. The Nationals could view the 25-year-old shortstop as the kind of core piece whom they're more or less unwilling to trade. At the same time, Abrams has been maddeningly inconsistent over the past couple seasons. He's a gifted athlete who is nevertheless prone to defensive miscues. This may just depend on how a Toboni-led front office that didn't acquire Abrams views the player.

Abrams is coming off a .257/.315/.433 line with 19 home runs through 635 plate appearances. He has hit between 18-20 longballs in each of the past three seasons. Abrams has stolen 31 bases in consecutive seasons and ranks sixth in MLB with 109 steals since the start of 2023. He won't walk much, but he puts the ball in play with middle-of-the-road exit velocities. At his best, he looks the part of a top-of-the-order spark plug. He's coming off a second straight season in which he was only at that level for a few months. Abrams was a star-level performer in the first half of each of the past two years, but he slumped after the All-Star Break both times.

He's not much easier to pin down defensively. Abrams certainly has the frame and athleticism of a shortstop. He has been far too mistake-prone, however, with only Elly De La Cruz committing more errors over the past few seasons. Most of them have been related to poor accuracy. Abrams was charged with 18 throwing errors this year, three more than anyone else. He has committed 38 throwing errors over the past three seasons. As one might expect given all the easy misses, Statcast has graded Abrams as by far the sport's worst defensive shortstop in that time.

Other teams could have differing views on Abrams' defensive projection. There are presumably some who feel he's non-viable at shortstop and would only consider him at second base or as a potential center field conversion. Others could feel the throwing issues can be cleaned up with mechanical tweaks. They could also be motivated out of some amount of desperation considering the lack of alternatives. Bo Bichette could command upwards of $200MM and faces his own defensive questions. Only one team can sign Ha-Seong Kim, and he doesn't have anywhere near the same offensive ceiling that Abrams has flashed. There aren't many clear options on the trade front.

If the Nationals were to trade Abrams, which clubs should make the biggest push? Let's split them into a few groups. Teams are listed alphabetically within each tier.

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MLB Mailbag: Orioles, Tigers, Trades

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This week's mailbag gets into Orioles starting pitcher targets, whether the Tigers have championship core pieces beyond Tarik Skubal, many hypothetical trade scenarios, and much more.

Tim asks:

I appreciate all the work you put into the Top 50 Free Agent list, as well as the Top 40 Trade Candidates list. My question is: do you really expect the Orioles to pursue any top of the rotation pitchers? I have a hard time believing Mike Elias will pursue such pitchers via Free Agency, as evidenced by his risk-averse history. Please calm my fears that we'll have a repeat of last offseason's lackluster moves.

Ben asks:

After their tepid foray into the starting pitching market last year (Sugano, Morton, Gibson) yielded less than stellar results, do you see Baltimore adjusting their approach on the starting pitching market by targeting more high-end arms? If so, do you think a trade or free agent signing is more likely?

These questions work well together, because we're trying to guess whether Elias will repeat his over-cautious approach to the rotation, or learn from it.

The Orioles were in on all the big names last offseason, but apparently didn't like the prices on any of them.  By January 3rd, the Orioles had committed to Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton.  The only good starting pitcher remaining on the market at that point was Nick Pivetta.

Part of Elias' folly was reliance on Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin.  Injuries have pretty much been constant throughout Rodriguez's big league career.  Eflin had a run of good health from 2023-24, but he was also dealing with chronic knee and back pain.  While he'd pitched really well for the Orioles in nine regular season starts in '24, his success was mostly about strike-throwing.

I've written before in this space that holding on to a well-regarded prospect who ultimately does not pan out is just as bad as trading one who does.  Elias is not exactly going to get fired for holding on to Heston Kjerstad or Coby Mayo last winter, but you have to wonder whether Garrett Crochet or Jesus Luzardo could've become Orioles.  The Orioles gave up Joey Ortiz and DL Hall to get Corbin Burnes, but didn't take a similar chance last winter.

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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! I'll get going at 3pm CT, give or take a minute or two. If you've got questions about our Top 50 agent list, our Top 40 trade candidate list, or anything more broadly pertaining to the offseason, let's discuss!
  • Greetings! Let's get goingn
  • going, eve
  • Oh my
  • Going, even*********
  • Bad omen for the chat today, ha

Rangers13

  • What would Padres want for Campusano?

Steve Adams

  • I assume Campusano can be had for little to no return at this point. He's a non-tender candidate. He demolished AAA pitching all season while the Padres trotted out Elias Diaz and Martin Maldonado ... then traded for another light-hitting, glove-first catcher at the deadline (Freddy Fermin)
  • If they had any faith he could catch in the majors, he'd have gotten another look this summer

Dana Brown

  • what type of return could the Astros get if they pick up half of Christian Walker's salary, and what type of return for Jake Meyers if he is available?

Steve Adams

  • Picking up half of Walker's contract still means he'd cost $20MM over two years, which is more than I think he'd get in free agency right now. I don't think they can move him if they're only eating half the deal (and, if they did find a taker at that price point, there'd be zero return)Meyers is cheap with a solid to good glove in CF, an average-ish bat and above-average baserunning contributions. He's two years from free agency. I don't think he's going to command a massive haul, but I think they could flip him for a back-end option in the rotation that's more or less ready right now.

Blue Jays

  • Aside from Bo, who do you think are the main blue jays targets this offseason (trade or free-agent)?

Steve Adams

  • I fully expect the Blue Jays to be in on basically every prominent free agent, including Kyle Tucker. They can accommodate him on the payroll. They don't have a set option in right field. (Barger can play 3B.) They just came two outs away from a World Series and have a bunch of extra revenue as a result.They also have multiple rotation vacancies -- and they were gifted a playoff-caliber starter when Shane Bieber exercised a player option that was somewhere around 10% of his market value (net $12MM for him). Still can't believe that.

    They're flush with cash, vibes are good, fan support through the roof. Free agents will want to go there after the WS appearance. No one's off the table.

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Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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The 119-loss Rockies were one of the worst teams in baseball history.  Can a front office shakeup (and an unexpected choice as the new baseball operations head) get the organization pointed in the right direction?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Kris Bryant, 1B/OF: $78MM through 2028
  • Ezequiel Tovar, SS: $56.5MM through 2030 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $23MM club option for 2031)
  • Kyle Freeland, SP: $16MM through 2026 (deal contains conditional player option for 2027)
  • Antonio Senzatela, SP/RP: $12MM through 2026 ($14MM club option for 2027)

Option Decisions

2026 financial commitments: $59MM
Total future commitments: $162.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The fact that Colorado is the last Offseason Outlook entry published (even after the World Series teams) speaks to the unusual length of the team's front office search.  The free agent market opened yesterday, and the leaderless baseball operations department has already been making some transactions since the World Series officially ended, though the decisions to decline mutual options on Thairo Estrada and Kyle Farmer were both routine and expected.

The Rockies' struggles are usually attributed to owner Dick Monfort's extreme loyalty to longtime employees, resulting in an organization that has fallen behind the curve in fresh ideas and in most aspects of modern roster construction.  Three straight 100-loss seasons and a gruesome 43-119 record in 2025 was enough to make even the notoriously insular Monfort realize that changes needed to be made.  Manager Bud Black was fired back in May, and GM Bill Schmidt was let go at season's end.

This winter marked the first time that Monfort had actually done a formal external search for a head of baseball operations.  Dan O'Dowd was already the general manager when the Monfort brothers bought the team in 2005.  O'Dowd continued in the job until 2014, and successors Jeff Bridich and Schmidt were internal promotions.

Walker Monfort's new role as Colorado's executive VP led to some inevitable accusations of nepotism, though reports indicate that the younger Monfort (Dick's son) has been pushing for the Rox to adopt a new approach.  The impact could be seen in Paul DePodesta's hiring as president of baseball operations, plus the fact that the other known candidates for the top job in baseball ops -- Guardians assistant GM Matt Forman, Diamondbacks assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye, Royals assistant GM Scott Sharp, and former Astros general manager James Click -- had no prior ties to Colorado's organization.

In classic Rockies fashion, however, the front office search wasn't exactly routine.  It seemed like Forman and Sawdaye were the finalists, except reports then emerged that the two were out of the running, with Sawdaye reportedly turning down a job offer and Forman taking himself out of the process.  Former Rockies reliever Adam Ottavino unexpectedly then emerged as a known candidate, throwing another curveball into the process that was ultimately ended when yesterday's news broke about DePodesta's hiring.

DePodesta has two decades of MLB front office experience with five different teams, including a two-year (2004-05) run as the Dodgers' general manager and five years working as Billy Beane's chief lieutenant with the Moneyball-era Athletics.  It's the kind of distinguished resume that most Colorado fans were probably hoping to see from the Rockies' hire....except for the oddity of DePodesta spending the last decade working outside of baseball as the Cleveland Browns' chief strategy officer.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald held a live chat today exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

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MLB Mailbag: Freddy Peralta, Sonny Gray, Bichette, Tucker, Cubs

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MLBTR's annual Top 50 Free Agents list comes out Thursday evening!  We'll also be launching our free agent prediction contest at that time.

This week's subscriber mailbag covers possible Freddy Peralta and Sonny Gray trades, how the 2026-27 lockout might affect free agency this winter, where Bo Bichette will sign if not Toronto, the chances the Dodgers land Kyle Tucker, and how the Cubs will approach the loss of Tucker as well as a rotation upgrade.

Morris asks:

What would a realistic trade with Milwaukee for Freddy Peralta look like for the Braves? While I would love to see Cease in a Braves' uni, I think he may get a much better deal elsewhere with Atlanta's seeming insistence on being "logical" with every free agent (cue Friedman's famous quote). Milwaukee has a penchant for really getting something extra out of pitchers, and Peralta is a finished product who will be too expensive for them to keep much longer. Would something like Bryce Elder (Milwaukee could absolutely figure out how to make him better), a top-15 pitching prospect, and a top-30 position-player-prospect get the deal done?

At one point in our free agent deliberations, we had Dylan Cease signing a three-year, $93MM deal with two opt-outs.  We were having a bit of a hard time giving Cease the long-term contract he's likely seeking, mostly because of his 4.55 ERA.  For the most part, we've gotten past those reservations and expect Cease to sign for perhaps seven years, as Aaron Nola did coming off a 4.46 regular season mark.

It should be noted that the Braves were competitive in the bidding for Nola, so we can't completely rule out Alex Anthopoulos going long for the Georgia-native Cease.  But it's also true that in eight years atop the Braves' front office, Anthopoulos' biggest free agent deal in both years and dollars was Marcell Ozuna's four-year, $65MM pact in February 2021.  I agree that Cease feels unlikely in Atlanta.

On September 30th, Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote, "The Braves could use another reliable veteran — someone in the mold of Charlie Morton as a pitcher who can provide steadiness, leadership and consistent innings."  The thinking is that with Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Spencer Strider locked in, the Braves need reliability more than they need a front of the rotation guy.  In my Top 50 picks, I've got the Braves signing Chris Bassitt.  I also find the idea of a paid-down Sonny Gray acquisition to be plausible.

But there's nothing that precludes Anthopoulos from thinking bigger and renting Peralta for a year, regardless of whether they can eventually extend him.

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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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The Dodgers have won back-to-back World Series. They aren't losing any major contributors to free agency, so they'll go into the winter with a really strong roster and the ability to bolster it further.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH: $560MM through 2033 ($68MM of salary deferred annually)
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP: $260MM through 2035 (deal includes multiple opt-out chances, beginning after 2029 or any season in which he is traded)
  • Mookie Betts, SS: $235MM through 2032 (includes $40MM of signing bonus still to be paid out; $10MM of salary deferred annually in 2026-27, $11MM annually 2028-32)
  • Blake Snell, LHP: $104MM through 2029 ($13.2MM of salary deferred annually; deal includes conditional club option for 2030)
  • Will Smith, C: $83.45MM through 2033 ($5MM of salary is deferred annually)
  • Tyler Glasnow, RHP: $81.5625MM through 2028 (2028 is either $21.5625MM player option or $30MM club option)
  • Tanner Scott, LHP: $56MM through 2028 (includes $15MM of signing bonus still to be paid out; $5.25MM of salary deferred annually; deal includes 2029 conditional option)
  • Freddie Freeman, 1B: $54MM through 2027 ($12MM of salary deferred annually)
  • Tommy Edman, IF/OF: $52MM through 2029 (includes $3MM buyout on $13MM club option for 2030; $6.25MM of salary deferred annually)
  • Teoscar Hernández, OF: $33MM through 2027 (includes $6.5MM buyout on $15MM club option; deal also includes conditional 2029 option; $8MM of salary deferred annually)
  • Blake Treinen, RHP: $13.5MM through 2026 (includes $2.5MM of signing bonus still to be paid out)
  • Hyeseong Kim, IF/OF: $9MM through 2027 (including $1.5MM buyout of $10MM two-year club option for 2028-29)

Other Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

  • Team has $10MM club option on 3B Max Muncy with no buyout
  • Team has $3.65MM club option on LHP Alex Vesia with $50K buyout (Vesia would remain controllable via arbitration even if option is declined)

2026 guarantees (assuming both options are picked up): $283.15MM ($127.7MM deferred)
Total future commitments: $1.559 billion ($792.55MM deferred)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Graterol, Gonsolin, Phillips, Banda, Stewart, Rortvedt, Grove

Free Agents

The Dodgers have a strong willingness to bet on talent and not worry so much about injury concerns. That is partly due to their almost unlimited budget, which allows them to take risks other clubs may not be able to afford. It's also because the lineup is so good that they are almost guaranteed to make the playoffs each year, which gives them the wiggle room to let their players get healthy as opposed to rushing them back during the regular season.

This has led to some inconsistency in how things end up when October rolls around. In 2023, they were so banged up that they were swept out of the ALDS by the Diamondbacks. In 2024, the Dodgers had just enough of a rotation to win the title. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler were the three traditional starters as the club relied heavily on the bullpen. In 2025, that flipped. The bullpen had been stripped down by injuries but the rotation had Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell and Shohei Ohtani all healthy. Manager Dave Roberts tried to avoid his traditional relievers as much as possible. He often allowed his starters to pitch deep into games. In Game Seven of the World Series, he used all four of Ohtani, Glasnow, Snell and Yamamoto.

Going into 2026, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Dodgers target more pitching, but the rotation is actually in good shape. The four starters they were using in this year's playoffs are all healthy and under contract. Roki Sasaki wound up in the bullpen due to some shoulder trouble but he could be stretched back out next year. Guys like Emmet Sheehan, Jack Dreyer, Ben Casparius, Landon Knack, Bobby Miller and Justin Wrobleski worked both as starters and relievers in 2025 and could be in the mix for starts again next year. Each of Kyle Hurt, River Ryan and Gavin Stone spent 2025 recovering from surgery but should be factors next year. Top prospect Jackson Ferris now has 33 Double-A games under his belt and should be in Triple-A next year.

Nick Frasso finished 2025 hurt and his current status isn't clear. Tony Gonsolin will likely be non-tendered since he underwent internal brace surgery and will miss at least the first half of 2026, though the Dodgers could afford to pay him and hope for a late-season return if they wanted to. Michael Grove missed all of 2025 due to shoulder surgery and could also be non-tendered, though he can still be controlled for three more seasons.

However it plays out, it's an impressive collection of talent, even with Clayton Kershaw retiring. The club has been very active in adding pitching in recent offseasons. After their aforementioned rough ending in 2023, they added Ohtani. However, he wasn't an immediate upgrade to the staff since he was recovering from surgery at the time, so they also added Glasnow and Yamamoto. Coming into this year, they signed Snell.

With the depth suddenly looking overwhelming, the Dodgers may not be as aggressive on the free agent starting pitching market. In fact, there are so many names on the chart that they could probably trade some away, though they could also opt to hold and just have lots of depth on hand for the inevitable injuries that will arise.

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Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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After falling painfully short in the World Series, the Blue Jays now face the challenge of keeping their core roster together, starting with the possible departure of cornerstone Bo Bichette.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B: $480MM through 2039
  • Andres Gimenez, 2B/SS: $86.5MM through 2029 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $23MM club option for 2030)
  • Jose Berrios, SP: $66MM through 2028 (Berrios can opt out of contract after the 2026 season)
  • Anthony Santander, OF/DH: $65.5MM through 2029 (includes $5MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2030; Santander has opt-out after 2027 season that Jays can override by increasing salary and exercising 2030 option)
  • Alejandro Kirk, C: $52MM through 2030
  • Kevin Gausman, SP: $23MM through 2026
  • George Springer, OF/DH: $22.5MM through 2026
  • Jeff Hoffman, RP: $22MM through 2027
  • Yariel Rodriguez, RP: $17MM through 2028 (includes $6MM player option for 2028; Blue Jays have $10MM club option if Rodriguez declines)
  • Myles Straw, OF: $8.75MM through 2026 (includes $1.75MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2027; Blue Jays also have $8.5MM club option for 2028 with $500K buyout; Guardians paying $2.75MM to Jays as condition of January 2025 trade)
  • Yimi Garcia, RP: $7.5MM through 2026

Option Decisions

  • Shane Bieber, SP: $16MM player option for 2026 ($4MM buyout)

2026 financial commitments (assuming Bieber declines player option): $164.75MM
Total future commitments (assuming Bieber declines player option): $850.75MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

As devastating as Game 7 was for the Blue Jays and their fans, the rest of the 2025 season was an unqualified success.  The club won its first AL East title in 10 years and its first AL pennant since 1993, in a stunning turn-around for a club that finished in last place in the AL East just a season ago (and held a modest 26-28 record through the first two months of 2025).

Just about every single Toronto hitter improved on their 2024 numbers, turning the Jays into a dangerous all-around offense fueled by putting the ball in play, high-volume and quality contact, and timely (if not always consistent) power.  Bichette was a key element of this formula.  After struggling with injuries and inconsistent play since August 2023, he returned to his old self in 2025 by hitting .311/.357/.483 with 18 home runs over 628 plate appearances.  Those numbers likely would've been even stronger if Bichette wasn't sidelined by a left PCL sprain in early September, which kept him out of action until the World Series.  Even while clearly limited in terms of running or normal flexibility, Bichette still hit .348/.444/.478 over 27 PA during the Fall Classic.

Bichette has stated that he won't need a knee surgery this winter, and while we could perhaps wait a few days to make sure Bichette wasn't just trying to tough it out for the postseason, it would seem like his PCL sprain shouldn't leave him any worse for wear for Opening Day 2026.  That means the Blue Jays and other suitors will probably feel comfortable in bidding normally on the All-Star now that he's hitting the open market.

There has been speculation for years about how the Jays would approach the free agencies of Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. during the 2025-26 offseason, and the Guerrero debate was firmly answered last April when the two sides agreed to a 14-year, $500MM extension.  With such a big commitment made to Guerrero, of course, that only raised fresh questions about Bichette's future.  Especially when coming off a down year in 2024 and with the Jays acquiring Andres Gimenez last winter, it seemed like Toronto was preparing itself to let Bichette walk.

The team's magical run in 2025 may have changed the equation.  Ownership and the front office may have some natural inclination to try and run it back (as much as possible) with a roster that came two outs away from a championship.  The Rogers Communications ownership group is very wealthy and has been comfortable in taking the Blue Jays' payroll into luxury tax territory in both 2023 and 2025, including the team's record high payroll and tax number this season.  (Cot's Baseball Contracts estimates payroll at $254MM and the tax number at roughly $278.8MM, while RosterResource estimates a $257.8MM payroll and a $282.7MM tax number that would put the Jays over the third penalty tier.)

Would the Blue Jays be willing to pay something in the $150MM-$200MM range on Bichette and add yet another long-term deal to a ledger that already has over $850MM in future commitments?  Guerrero alone takes up a big chunk of that $850MM-plus figure, but the Blue Jays also have to factor in other potential expenditures.  As we'll explore later in the outlook, Toronto will again need to make some investments in its rotation, and Kevin Gausman is a free agent next winter.  Extending George Springer didn't seem like a consideration a year ago, but after Springer's big comeback season, the Jays must now at least be thinking about retaining the veteran when his current deal is up next winter.

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Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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The Red Sox finally made it back to the postseason this year, though their third place finish in the AL East and a quick exit in the Wild Card Series at the hands of the Yankees leaves fans hoping for more in 2026.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Garrett Crochet, LHP: $166MM through 2031 (deal includes conditional $15MM club option for 2032; can opt out after 2030)
  • Roman Anthony, OF: $125MM through 2033 (deal includes $30MM club option for 2034)
  • Brayan Bello, RHP: $50.5MM through 2029 (includes $1MM buyout on $21MM club option for 2030)
  • Kristian Campbell, 2B/OF: $47MM through 2032 (includes $4MM buyout on $19MM club option for 2033, deal includes $21MM club option for 2034)
  • Ceddanne Rafaela, OF/2B: $46MM through 2031 (includes $4MM buyout on $16MM club option for 2032)
  • Masataka Yoshida, DH: $36MM through 2027
  • Jordan Hicks, RHP: $24MM through 2027
  • Aroldis Chapman, LHP: $13.3MM through 2026 (includes $300K buyout on $13MM vesting option for 2027)
  • Patrick Sandoval, LHP: $12.75MM through 2026
  • Garrett Whitlock, RHP: $8.25MM through 2026 (includes $1MM buyout on $8.25MM club option for 2027, deal includes $10.5MM club option for 2028)

Option Decisions:

  • Alex Bregman, 3B: Will opt out of $80MM through 2027 ($40MM deferred)
  • Trevor Story, SS: Can opt out of final $50MM through 2027. If opt out exercised, Red Sox can either void it by exercising $25MM club option or pay Story a $5MM buyout.
  • Lucas Giolito, RHP: $19MM mutual option with $1.5MM buyout.
  • Liam Hendriks, RHP: $12MM mutual option with $2MM buyout.
  • Jarren Duran, OF: $8MM club option with $100K buyout. Eligible for arbitration if option is declined.

Total 2026 commitments: $168.9MM
Total future commitments: $662.4MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Much of Boston's offseason will be dictated by the opt out decisions made by the left side of the club's infield. Alex Bregman is already expected to opt out of his contract and return to the open market, but it's not yet clear whether or not Trevor Story will follow in those footsteps. With no locked in starter at second base and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow unwilling to commit to Triston Casas at first base for next year, it's not impossible to imagine a scenario where the Red Sox are looking to reshape their entire infield as they look for defensive upgrades.

At the very least, they'll need to either re-sign or replace Bregman. Re-signing the veteran coming off his third career All-Star appearance may prove to be the most sensible course of action. While he'll be seeking a true long-term deal this winter as he heads into his age-32 campaign, it would be difficult to find the sort of production Bregman offers elsewhere. Just three third basemen (Jose Ramirez, Junior Caminero, and Isaac Paredes) posted a higher wRC+ than Bregman's 125 this year, and Fangraphs' Def metric pegs Bregman as the seventh-most valuable defensive third baseman in baseball this year despite a quad injury limiting him to just 114 games.

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