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Pete Alonso
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The biggest news of a relatively quiet Winter Meetings dropped on the final day. Pete Alonso is headed to Baltimore (pending a physical) on a massive five-year deal. His departure from the Mets had been telegraphed by the team's reported reluctance to go beyond three years. It's nevertheless jarring for a team that has spent at the top of the league to be comfortably outbid on the franchise's all-time home runs leader by a mid-market Orioles club.
Alonso's departure came one day after the Mets let Edwin Díaz walk to the Dodgers. They're a few weeks removed from trading Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien. Clearly, president of baseball operations David Stearns and his front office weren't happy to run it all back after the team melted down in the second half. They've signed Devin Williams to replace Díaz. We've yet to see how they'll respond to the losses on the position player side. There's plenty more to come -- no team is complete on December 10 -- but the 2026 Mets will look a lot different than the teams of the past few seasons.
At the beginning of the offseason, Stearns spoke about a need to improve the pitching and defense (link via Will Sammon of The Athletic). Aside from the Williams signing, they've waited out the pitching market so far. Their position player moves, or lack thereof, suggest they're indeed focused on getting more athletic. Semien remains an excellent defensive second baseman. Alonso's lack of defensive value is a big reason they were reluctant to pay him into his mid-30s.
Where do they go from here?
As the Winter Meetings start to pick up, this week's subscriber mailbag gets into MacKenzie Gore trade proposals, more trade ideas involving this year's Cy Young winners, the trade value of Nick Pivetta and Anthony Santander, and much more.
Steve asks:
Assuming that MacKenzie Gore has not been traded as I write this, would either of these two deals be likely to work for the teams involved?
1. Gore and Luis Garcia, Jr. to the Giants for Bryce Eldridge and Carson Whisenhunt? or
2. Gore to the Red Sox for Triston Casas and Connelly Early?
Your thoughts?
Gustav asks:
Who’d say no in a Gore & Abrams for Sheehan, Freeland, Ferris & Hope?
Gore, 27 in February, has two more years of team control remaining. He's had a couple of 3-WAR type seasons in 2024 and '25, but they came with extreme volatility.
The lefty made 32 starts in 2024. He had a 14-start stretch in the middle where he posted a 6.18 ERA, 19.8 K%, and 11.4 BB%. That 8.3 K-BB% was the fourth-worst in baseball among qualified starters during that June 3rd-August 17th period. Before and after that, Gore pitched like an ace. His velocity was up early in the season, spiking to 96.6 miles per hour from the beginning of the year through July 1st. It was a full mile per hour slower from that point on.
Similarly, Gore entered a July 20th start against the Padres this year with a 3.02 ERA, 30.5 K%, and 7.7 BB%. His was back in ace form, and earned his first All-Star nod. From that point forward, though, Gore posted a 6.75 ERA, 20.7 K%, and 12.8 BB% over his final 11 starts. This stretch was a bit more concentrated into three or four blow-ups. Gore's velocity was back down to 95.3 this year, but was relatively consistent game-to-game.
A run through Gore's injury history:
The blister issues didn't seem to pop up after 2023. Gore has never undergone Tommy John surgery. His 2022 elbow soreness and his 2025 shoulder inflammation seemed minor.
So Gore's injury history is not bad, but he's been a pitcher of extremes the last two years. It's difficult to value that, but I'm sure just about every organization would like to bring him in and try to smooth things out.
Each offseason at MLBTR, we take a look at the potential markets for some of the top names in free agency. We've already taken a look at both Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette and Framber Valdez. Let's move onto star third baseman Alex Bregman, who opted out of the remaining two years and $80MM on his Red Sox contract earlier in the offseason. Bregman was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, having gotten one previously in his career, so he can be signed without any draft forfeitures.
Bregman was a free agent last winter as well, but when the market didn't produce a $200MM+ deal to his liking, he signed for three years and $120MM (with plenty of deferred money) in Boston. That contract allowed him to opt out after each season.
Early in 2025, Bregman played like an MVP candidate. Through May 23, he was hitting .299/.385/.553 with 11 home runs, 17 doubles, an 18.6% strikeout rate and a 9.7% walk rate. He suffered a quad strain that sidelined him for nearly two months, throwing a wrench into one of the hottest starts of his career.
There's a narrative that Bregman struggled down the stretch after returning from injury. That's not entirely true. For the first 130 plate appearances post-injury, Bregman picked up right where he left off. He hit .325/.408/.518 with more walks (11.5%) than strikeouts (8.5%). His bat tanked for the next three weeks (.151/.223/.215, 103 plate appearances), and Bregman then finished out the season hitting .276/.417/.414 in his final 36 trips to the batter's box. The concept of his post-injury "swoon" is largely a misnomer. Bregman was healthy for the final 11 weeks of the season and really only struggled for three of them -- the extent of those struggles was just alarming. Unsurprisingly, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said after the season that Bregman probably came back a bit earlier and wasn't playing at 100%.
On the whole, Bregman hit .273/.360/.462 (125 wRC+) with a revitalized walk rate and improved batted-ball metrics. His defense, even with an ailing quadriceps, graded out better than average. Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference peg him at 3.5 WAR in only 114 games. There’s a pretty easy case that Bregman is a bankable four- to five-WAR player, and while talk of veteran presence/clubhouse leadership/intangibles is often overstated, it seems genuine that front offices are captivated by his leadership skills and personality.
Bregman could have more demand than he did last winter. He's a year older now, but there's no QO attached to him and his plate discipline/approach rebounded after an uncharacteristic 6.9% walk rate and .315 OBP in 2024. Let’s run through Bregman's likeliest landing spots, based on roster composition and payroll outlook, and see if there are any viable dark horse candidates to bring him aboard.
Known/Likely Suitors (listed alphabetically)
Cubs: Pitching is the Cubs' primary focus this winter, even after Shota Imanaga accepted his qualifying offer and will now return for the 2026 season. However, the Cubs were in on Bregman last offseason and have already been linked to him again. The fit is clear. Top prospect Matt Shaw didn't solidify himself as an everyday option at the hot corner when handed the reins at the position in 2025. Shaw is still only 24 years old and did have an encouraging month following the All-Star break ... before cratering once again in his final 133 plate appearances (.220/.293/.373). Shaw hit .226/.295/.394 overall. He's still a promising young player, but promising young players don't always become solid big leaguers.
Each offseason at MLBTR, we take a look at the potential markets for some of the top names in free agency. We've already covered the two best free agent hitters, Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette. With Dylan Cease off the board on what is likely to be the biggest pitching contract of the winter, we'll look at the market for the best left-hander: Framber Valdez.
Valdez has been one of the most durable and consistent pitchers in the sport over the past six seasons. This year's 3.66 earned run average was his highest since he established himself as a starter with the Astros in 2020. Valdez has surpassed 175 innings in four straight seasons. He sits in the 95-96 MPH range and is capable of both missing bats and keeping the ball on the ground. Valdez doesn't have the strikeout ceiling that Cease brings to the table, but he has fanned an above-average 23-25% of opponents in four straight years. His true standout trait is a ground-ball rate that annually ranks among the sport's highest, including a huge 58.6% mark this past season.
The plus stuff from the left side and combination of whiffs and grounders makes Valdez fairly similar to Max Fried. He's not going to match the eight-year, $218MM contract that Fried commanded when he was headed into his age-31 season. Valdez, who turned 32 last month, is probably looking at a five- or six-year deal at a premium annual rate. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $150MM contract that made him our #6 free agent. He's tied with Tatsuya Imai for the second-largest predicted contracts among pitchers (behind Cease, whom we had at $189MM over seven years).
Valdez rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros, who are not expected to make much of an effort to bring him back. They'll receive a compensatory pick -- specifics of which won't be determined until MLB finalizes the 2025 luxury tax calculations -- while the signing team will forfeit draft and/or international bonus pool space. That shouldn't be much of a deterrent for arguably the best immediate rotation upgrade available.
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This week's mailbag gets into the Mets' offseason thus far, Craig Breslow's tenure atop Boston's front office, the Munetaka Murakami situation, how an expansion draft works, the Cubs' anti-deferral policy, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s trade value, and much more.
Ed asks:
I'm finding it hard to understand the Mets thinking. I'm scratching my head about the Marcus Semien/ Brandon Nimmo trade. I asked my friend who's a big Mets fan (his last name is Metz) what he thought and he responded that it depends on what outfielder they replace Nimmo with. I told him that unless they break the bank on Kyle Tucker its not going to be a clear upgrade. I'd say Cody Bellinger is an slight upgrade but after looking at their numbers its amazing how similar Bellinger and Nimmo are offensively and I don't see Cody putting up as good numbers in Citi Field.
Then I heard they are shopping Senga, instead of signing Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez to compliment Senga they are looking to move on all together. Again I think both Framber and Ranger are probably a little better than Senga but if you sign one of them and keep Senga he becomes your # 2 which he is much better suited for.
I believe last year was more of a fluke for Devin Williams than the new norm, but would rather have Diaz, especially since William's problem might have been that he just can't handle the New York limelight. The Mets are now going with Williams as closer unless they resign Diaz and yes it probably closes the door on Diaz unless they want to invest over $100 million on two back end of the bullpen guys.
Just curious what you think of these moves. Do you feel the Mets will be stronger in the OF, Starting and Relief pitching in 2026?
Abner asks:
As a NY Mets fan I would love to see a late innings duo of Edwin Díaz & Devin Williams. But knowing how does David Stearns operate, how realistic is the Mets signing Díaz with Williams already in the fold? Will they look for cheaper options getting a guy like Tyler Rogers and/or Emilio Pagán to be the setup man while Williams is the closer? If they decide to invest heavily in Williams and Díaz, does that mean that they will not invest in an ace for the starting rotation this offseason? Thanks in advance.
On the Nimmo/Semien trade, I agree with Ed's friend. So far, we've seen a portion of the Mets' offseason puzzle. It's not close to being complete.
At age 33, Nimmo projects as roughly a 2.5 WAR player next year. It's true that the free agent market is light on outfielders who are capable of that, beyond Tucker and Bellinger. But it's also true that 34 MLB outfielders were worth 2.5+ WAR this year, including several few saw coming. And that doesn't account for platoons that combined for 2.5 WAR-type value.
There's also collapse risk with the 33-year-old Nimmo, who is under contract through 2030. Let's take a quick look at the last five years and see how many 33-year-old outfielders were worth 2.5+ WAR:
Nimmo's track record is very good, and a projection system is not going to project him to fall off a cliff after a 3-WAR season. But outfield is a young man's game, and you can see how rare good seasons are at 33+. With Nimmo, this could be a case of the old adage about trading a player a year too early rather than a year too late. So I don't mind subtracting a player who probably won't age well, saving some money long-term and bringing in a second baseman with strong defense. That's not to say Semien doesn't have his own collapse risk at 35, but his speed and defense are holding strong.
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Next Rangers moves?
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