The Astros’ Ominous Long-Term Outlook
In case you're just tuning into the 2026 season, things aren't going great in Houston. The Astros escaped with a split in a doubleheader with the Orioles yesterday despite allowing a combined 15 runs in those games. They enter play Friday sitting on a 12-20 record. Houston's bullpen has been far and away the worst in baseball, due in no small part to star closer Josh Hader's lengthy stint on the IL to begin the season. Bryan Abreu went from arguably the game's best setup man to a low-leverage middle reliever in short order; his fastball is down more than two miles per hour, and his ERA sits just shy of 13.00. Veterans Enyel De Los Santos and Steven Okert were low-cost pickups last year who played big roles. Both have regressed (and then some) in 2026.
Meanwhile, a rotation that brought in several new arms this winter has only been marginally better. Again, injuries have played a role. Ace Hunter Brown is out with a shoulder strain. Offseason pickup Tatsuya Imai, a star righty in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball, struggled before hitting the IL with arm fatigue. Cristian Javier is sidelined into at least June with his own shoulder strain. Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski are still on the mend from 2025 Tommy John surgery. Neither is expected back before the All-Star break.
The lineup has at least provided good production. Houston hitters are batting .265/.346/.438 as a team. A disproportionate amount of their production has come from slugger Yordan Alvarez, who's decimating opposing pitchers at an MVP-caliber clip, but he's not alone. Christian Walker has more than just righted the ship after an awful start in 2025 -- he's arguably hitting better than he ever has before. Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa have been comfortably better than average at the dish. Isaac Paredes has found his stride after a slow start himself.
Even on this side of the ball, however, the 'Stros have had challenges. Jeremy Peña has been limited to just 10 games thanks to a pair of injuries (broken finger, hamstring strain). Jake Meyers looked solid through a dozen games before an oblique strain sent him to the shelf. The reacquired Joey Loperfido was solid through 20 contests before straining his quad. In recent weeks, Houston has regularly trotted out lineups including players like Braden Shewmake, Daniel Johnson and Dustin Harris, each of whom was acquired simply because the club needed warm bodies and lacked depth.
That's a symptom of a much larger and more concerning trend in Houston -- one that calls into question the club's outlook well beyond the current season.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope all is well!
- Looking forward to another of these, let's get it rolling
Goofy
- What should Dana Brown do at this point? Who should he try to extend? Would love to make Yordan an Astro for life.
Anthony Franco
- Yordan's already signed through 2028 (age 31) at $26MM annually. Incredible hitter but will probably be a full-time DH at that point given the health history. Wouldn't be eager to commit Alonso/Schwarber money on top of that right now
- I doubt they'd kick off a rebuild this summer or next offseason but it's an aging roster and if they're not very good again at the '27 deadline, might be time to think about it with a year and a half of club control over Alvarez and Brown
- Short term there's not much to be done. It's just not a very good team right now given all the injuries and the general lack of depth. Have to hope they play well enough to stay within 5-6 games of a playoff spot once they get healthier
M's Fan
- What is Randy Arozerena worth this offseason? I'd love for the M's to give him the QO, but historically I've felt they're really conservative with QO decisions.
Anthony Franco
- Yeah I think he'll get the QO, though to your point, I also assumed that for Teoscar. Kind of a weird start for Randy because the bat speed's way down and the contact quality is pretty bad but the production is way up thanks to a dip in strikeouts
- Not really sure what to do with that. He feels a little less explosive, which isn't a great sign at 31, but it's tough to ding him too much when he's hitting .289/.381/.439
- If he keeps something like that up all year, I think he'd turn down the QO and get three years and something in the $60-70M range. I'd be hesitant to go beyond two personally but would happily have him back if he accepts the QO
Franco's Fans
- I keep seeing people referring to Sal Stewart as being a RoY favorite in the NL, but to my eyes JJ Wetherholt is exceeding the already high expectations set on him. Kid seems like he is going to be really special for the Cardinals.
Anthony Franco
- Yeah they both look great. The idea of a clear-cut favorite 20% of the way through the season doesn't make much sense to me. The margins are super slim, especially for that particular award
- Would rather have Wetherholt long-term given the defensive value but more faith in Stewart to be an all-around masher in year one
Arizona
- What’s the worry meter read right now? They piled wins against the worst teams in MLB throughout April but there isn’t a starting caliber pitcher on the roster on May first!
Anthony Franco
- They've gotten shelled the last couple times through but I don't think Kelly, Gallen, Nelson, E-Rod, Soroka is a disaster of a rotation. Below-average but workable, have more faith in that than in the bullpen
- Broadly speaking, I thought it was a fine April. Their early season is mostly about not getting buried while they wait on Burnes, Martinez and Puk. Never thought this was a great team necessarily, but hanging around .500 seems about right
Duffy
- What should the Red Sox do about Bello? This year has been…yikes
Anthony Franco
- Yeah he has to go down once Gray and Crochet come back. Wouldn't need to see much from Bennett to convince me that he's better than Bello right now, and there's no real case for Bello above Early and Tolle
- Longer term, I don't know. He's throwing the sinker a lot this year, which isn't great because it's always been a hittable pitch (albeit generally on the ground). Now the secondaries are getting pummeled too but I have a little more faith in the cutter/changeup being viable moving forward
- He's actually missing bats at a career-high rate but he's getting fewer chases and throwing fewer first-pitch strikes. Falling behind early in counts and needing to challenge with a mediocre fastball, not ideal
Idiotic Failson
- Is there a better rotation than the Yankees when they get Rodon and Cole back? Warren is arguably their 5th starter in that case, and it seems he'd be a top 2 option for like half the league.
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MLB Mailbag: Cardinals, Mets, Red Sox, Phillies, Mize
This week's mailbag gets into the Cardinals' strong start, the Mets' terrible offense, what a Mets, Red Sox, or Phillies sell-off might look like, Casey Mize's contract year, and more.
Andrew asks:
I came into the year with low expectations for the Cardinals, but we still have a decent record. How long would the Cardinals need to maintain a winning record before I get any hopes up about making the playoffs?
FanGraphs is much more optimistic than PECOTA on this team, so we'll go with their 13.5% playoff odds. The Cardinals have played .552 ball through 17.9% of their season, but FG calls for .462 from here on out. If the Cards instead play .500 ball for their final 129, they'll win 82-83 games, which might put them firmly in the mix for a wild card spot until the end.
At 4.83 runs scored per game, the Cardinals' offense ranks sixth in the NL. If they actually get into the neighborhood of 800 runs, it'd be impressive for any team, not just one that entered the season with low expectations.
Nine Cardinals players have 60+ PA and account for 85% of the team's total:
- Ivan Herrera - 138 wRC+. The Statcast metrics are strong, and even if Herrera can't maintain a 17% walk rate, his .278 xBA and .471 xSLG suggest this is mostly real. If so, the Cardinals have a lineup cornerstone at DH/catcher through 2029.
- JJ Wetherholt - 132 wRC+. The highly-regarded rookie is getting on base and exceeding expectations. He'll slump at some point, but with a 70 hit grade and 55 power, one can make the case for strong production to continue even if it looks different (such as a higher batting average).
- Alec Burleson - 115 wRC+. He has a track record at this level, so this is reasonable.
- Jordan Walker - 153 wRC+. If this holds up, Walker is a top ten hitter in baseball. Maybe that's optimistic, but the breakout is backed by Statcast.
- Nolan Gorman - 81 wRC+. He hasn't really hit since 2023, though he's OK against righties and looks fine at third base this year. If the Astros fall further, could the Cardinals make a trade for Isaac Paredes?
- Masyn Winn - 103 wRC+. He's hitting to expectations.
- Victor Scott II - 39 wRC+. Scott isn't in there for his bat, but seems best-suited for a fourth outfielder role.
- Nathan Church - 106 wRC+. The speedy 25-year-old came into the year as just a 40-grade prospect and may also lack the bat to be a starter, but he hit well in the upper minors. I'm not sure I'd want Scott and Church in the same lineup, but they are a strong defensive pair. Thomas Saggese is in this mix, and prospect Joshua Baez could join it if he cuts down on strikeouts.
- Pedro Pages - 106 wRC+. Pages does have a little bit of pop, but he probably can't keep this up.
Lars Nootbaar underwent surgery in October to address deformities in his heels, and could be a great June addition capable of a 115-120 wRC+. If Nootbaar has a setback, a trade for the aforementioned Duran or Marsh could be interesting. You can't help but wonder how good this offense would look had the Cardinals retained Contreras and Brendan Donovan, though.
Bottom line, though: there's something here with this offense, especially if Nootbaar can provide a boost. And this also seems to be one of the better defenses in the NL. What about the pitching side?
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The Reds’ Confusing April
The Reds are out to an early lead in the NL Central. Their 19-10 record is tied with San Diego's for third-best in the Senior Circuit, narrowly behind the Braves and Dodgers. They're on track for their best record in a month since June 2023.
It doesn't necessarily come as a surprise that the Reds have been competitive. They were a playoff team a year ago, and the division is one of the more wide open in MLB. Yet the way they've gotten to this start is more perplexing. Their two best starters haven't thrown a pitch. The back of their rotation has been knocked around. Their bullpen is walking more hitters than any other in MLB. They've had arguably the NL's least productive catching tandem and outfield.
How have they overcome all of that? The lineup has been carried by two players: one established star and a rookie who already looks like an impact slugger. Let's dig in beyond the scorching starts from Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart to gauge what the front office might prioritize when they start sketching out deadline plans 6-8 weeks from now.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! We'll get going at 2:30 CT, but feel free to begin sending in questions ahead of time!
- Greetings! Let's get going
MartiansArrival?
- Waiting to outmaneuver others in my league. When will the transaction to bring The Martian up happen?
Steve Adams
- A bit late now! The Yankees made it official 45 minutes ago, or thereabouts. As I noted this morning though, it could be a quick turnaround. He's a candidate to be optioned later this week when Volpe comes off the IL, especially since the Yankees haven't announced an IL placement for Stanton, which at least suggests they might ride it out in hopes of avoiding an IL stint for him entirely
Beano
- closer question - is A Santazela a potential closer in Denver? E Miller in SF? G Varland in DC? All of these guys are on our waiver wire and I wonder if they might be sneaky good grabs.
Steve Adams
- I did not have "Antonio Senzatela bullpen breakout" on my 2026 bingo card, and yet 18 innings into the season, I'm cautiously buying it. The Colorado bullpen is a mess, and he's probably the best guy they have right now, so yeah I can see him taking over the ninth. He already has two saves.I'm bigger on Keaton Winn in San Francisco than I am Miller, whose command is still pretty wobbly.Varland's durability has been nonexistent in recent years, so while I'm intrigued by the showing thus far, I don't have faith that he'll hold up.
Bradke Hrbek
- Time for Sim W-R to move to the bullpen? He's pretty decent the first time through the lineup, but it's awfully shaky after that...
Steve Adams
- He hasn't even been that great the first trip through the order this year, but yeah, I think that move has to be made eventually. He had a nice finish last season -- 3.00 ERA over his final 14 starts -- but needed a .203 BABIP to get there.His velocity has kind of oscillated throughout his career as a starter. I'd be a little curious to just see him letting loose for an inning or two at a time.Twins haven't had the rotation health to make that move, but if Abel comes back in short order, I could see them going Ryan-Bradley-Ober-Abel-Prielipp, with Rojas the next guy up (or maybe piggybacking with Prielipp).
They've given SWR plenty of chances in the rotation over the years, and it still seems hard to count on him as more than a pretty mercurial fifth starter.
Snoozy
- Tatis. Tell me it's April and this too shall pass.
Steve Adams
- It's April, and this too shall pass. :)I do genuinely think he's fine. Contact rate in the zone is actually up. Bat speed's good. He's hitting too many grounders, so maybe there's something off in his swing mechanics; maybe he's chasing below the zone too much (his case rate is up a bit, although not egregiously so)I'd be more concerned if there were some giant drop in bat speed or if he were chasing at a crazy high level or seeing major contact losses (especially in the strike zone). None of that's happening.
Red Sox
- True or False - Last year in Milwaukee will be the best year of Durbin's career. Follow up. true or false - we got WORKED in that deal.
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Can Any Expected Contenders Escape The Early Holes They’ve Dug?
It's commonplace for at least one postseason hopeful to run into unexpected struggles early in the season. In the past, we've seen World Series aspirants and Wild Card hopefuls alike shoot themselves in the foot with sloppy April sequences that jeopardize their visions of October baseball. In some instances -- the 2022 Phillies, the 2024 Mets and, most notably, the 2019 Nationals -- teams are able to rally and make good on those playoff goals. For those 2019 Nats, they went so far as to win the whole thing. Nary a baseball fan in D.C. will ever forget the significance of the 19-31 record they faced roughly one-third of the way through the season.
More commonly, however, a disappointing April can prove to be a backbreaker. Fans need only look as far back as the 2025 Orioles to see a would-be contender whose awful early performance sunk their season before it ever had a chance to get going in earnest. The Orioles wrapped up April with a 12-18 record. By the midway mark of May, they were 15-27 -- buried by nine and a half games in the American League East and with their postseason hopes all but dashed.
There have been plenty of oddities so far in the 2026 season. Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery are the first pair of teammates in MLB history with active streaks of homers in four or more consecutive games. (Oh, and Miguel Vargas has gone deep in three straight.) We're about one-sixth of the way through the season and Mason Miller has fanned a superhuman 71% of his opponents through 11 1/3 innings. Tigers phenom Kevin McGonigle, who skipped Triple-A entirely and broke camp as a 21-year-old, ranks fourth in the majors in Baseball-Reference WAR or fifth in FanGraphs WAR, if you prefer.
But the strangest development of the 2026 doesn't focus on any one player's individual efforts. To see the most bizarre facet of the season's first month requires a step back and a more macro look at the league as a whole.
Entering play Thursday, the four worst teams in baseball weren't the Rockies, Nationals, Twins or any other widely expected cellar dweller. Instead, the bottom-four records belong to the Royals, Phillies, Mets and Red Sox -- four clubs that entered the season with clear designs on contending. Fifth-worst are the White Sox -- not terribly surprising -- followed by the sixth-worst Astros. One game up in the standings are the Blue Jays and Mariners, last year's ALCS opponents.
In any given year, seeing one or two of these clubs faceplant out of the gate wouldn't be all that remarkable. Teams fall short of expectations all the time -- often well short. But to see seven clubs who entered 2026 as win-now teams populate bottom-10 spots in the leaguewide standings with more than four weeks of the season in the books is fairly incredible.
Is the season lost for any of these clubs? Not quite yet, but the margin for error has all but eroded. For most of these clubs -- especially the bottom four -- it's going to take something close to .600 ball the rest of the way to end up in contention. Let's take a look at this year's most disappointing clubs at the season's one-month mark to see if there's a chance of a rebound and, if not, who they might have to begrudgingly listen on at this year's Aug. 3 trade deadline.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope all is well!
- Looking forward to another of these, let's get it going
M
- Which under .500 teams do you think are most likely to make the post season, and which above .500 teams do you think are most likely to regress and miss out?
Anthony Franco
- Seattle on the positive side. There are a handful of teams a little above .500 that I doubt are playoff teams (A's, Tampa Bay, St. Louis) but most of the teams at the top of the league feel about right
- Cincinnati's the exception, I guess, but they're a viable NL Central threat or Wild Card team even if they're punching above their weight right now
JimJam
- Realistic expectations for Giolito in SD?
Anthony Franco
- Better than Matt Waldron, Germán Márquez and Walker Buehler
- Would guess he's a true talent mid-4.00s ERA pitcher at this point but a fine fifth starter. More intrigued by what they'll get out of Canning once he comes back though
Guest
- How much longer are the Brewers going to let the left side of the infield not hit before making a change?
Anthony Franco
- Just don't have alternatives right now. Jett Williams and Cooper Pratt aren't hitting in Triple-A and they clearly don't trust Tyler Black there defensively
- Calling up 18-year-old Jesús Made straight from Double-A (where he has 23 games played) is too aggressive. Maybe by late season he forces his way into the picture but just have to ride it out for now
Dave Dombrowski
- It's July 15 and the Phillies are 15 games out of a playoff spot. Zach Wheeler, who has promised to retire after the possibly unplayed 2027 season, is pitching reasonably well and improving with each start. Do I trade him for the best available return, or hope '26 is a blip and '27 is actually played?
Anthony Franco
- Can't see any way that Wheeler's getting traded. They have to assume the '27 season is getting played -- would put the odds less than 2% that the entire season gets banged -- and they'll still be all-in even if this year is a complete disaster
Cat_Herder
- All of the off-season talk was Skubal and Framber. Thoughts on Casey Mize? He's looking like a solid mid-rotation starter right now. Especially with Jack not looking reliable and Verlander still rehabbing.
Anthony Franco
- I don't feel much differently about him than I did entering the season. Splitter has gotten much better results than it did last year but that's kind of always been the one plus pitch
- Solid mid-rotation starter seems right. Good player, agree he's their third-best arm with Reese Olson out
RAGBRAI
- Is Curtis Mead anything to be excited about this year or next for Washington?
Anthony Franco
- Probably not given the career production but I don't have a great explanation for why he hasn't at least been a slightly above-average hitter
- He hit throughout his minor league career and the pitch recognition, contact skills and bat speed are all serviceable
- Still not a great overall player given the lack of athleticism and defensive value but I'm not completely out on him being able to carve out a career as a bench bat
- I know I can’t keep THIS up, but can I continue to be REALLY good? Maybe go for the Cy Young?
Arrer Prone
- MLBTR has been saying Soriano is a really good pitcher, but after last year I was beginning to wonder. Clearly I was wrong, but does it surprise you at just how dominant he's been this season so far? And does this put him as the clear Cy Young candidate, or at least in the running, or is it still too early?
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Will Braves Add Drake Baldwin To List Of Early-Career Extensions?
The Braves have had a fantastic start to the 2026 season. They've outscored opponents by 62 runs, the best mark in MLB. Their 18-8 record has them atop the National League.
That's before considering the dismal starts of their two biggest threats in the division. The Mets are eight games under .500 and the Phillies nine. Atlanta has already built a 5.5 game lead in the NL East and is nine games clear of the two other teams that most observers would have considered realistic candidates to win the East. Teams cannot lock up a division in April, of course, but the Braves couldn't have drawn up a better first month.
There are myriad reasons for the hot start. The back of the rotation, easily the biggest weakness on paper given all their injuries, has performed admirably. They've been one of the best defensive teams in the league. No team has scored more runs. While some of that is driven by Mauricio Dubón and Dominic Smith hitting well above previous levels, any regression from those hitters should be offset by Ronald Acuña Jr. shaking off a middling start.
Although Acuña is still the face of the lineup, Drake Baldwin is making a strong case that he's their second-best position player. Last year's NL Rookie of the Year has come out on fire. He's tied with Matt Olson for the team lead with seven home runs while batting .318/.392/.551 over 120 plate appearances. The former third-round pick is up to a .283/.351/.488 slash over his first 561 career trips to the dish.
Baldwin already looks like one of the three to five best catchers in MLB -- no small accomplishment in a time with a lot of excellent young backstops. One would imagine the front office would love to keep him in Atlanta long term. The Braves are notably diligent about keeping their contract talks close to the vest, so there hasn't been any substantive reporting about extension conversations with Baldwin. It seems fair to assume they've at least quietly broached the possibility.
President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has been extremely aggressive on the extension front. What kind of money might it take to add Baldwin to the likes of Acuña, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II as homegrown talents whom the Braves have extended?
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MLB Mailbag: Devin Williams, Braves, Blue Jays, Prospects
This week's mailbag gets into the rough start to Devin Williams' Mets career, the Braves' apparent rotation depth, the Blue Jays' playoff chances, whether Konnor Griffin had a shot at a billion-dollar free agency, and which prospects who have yet to reach MLB may have an impact at the highest level this year.
Charles asks:
As a Yankee fan, I thought Devin Williams was going to have to take a one year show me deal in the 12-15 range, the Mets foolishly gave more than that.
He was having problems locating his fastball, especially up in the zone. This allowed batters to sit on his change up. If the changeup was too far up in the zone or was his flatter B- Change, he became more hittable. As well as giving up walks. Several broadcasters commented on just that..... Surprise surprise......the same thing is happening this year. Yet I kept reading the pundits, based off sabremetrics, say he would be fine and his contract was fine. Are there more advanced stats people were ignoring? What gives?
Before the MLBTR team begins deliberations for our Top 50 Free Agents list, we come up with our own contract projections individually. For Williams, I initially had two years and $24MM with an opt-out, in the range of the contract the Orioles eventually gave Ryan Helsley.
My colleagues rightfully convinced me that Williams was still considered one of the better relievers in the game during the offseason, and I was relatively on board with our four-year, $68MM prediction. Accounting for deferrals, Williams got a deal resembling three years and $45MM. We may have considered three years the least likely outcome, as Williams wouldn't want to be tied down to a less-than-elite contract if he expected to return to elite performance. But it looks like Williams chose to secure the maximum possible guarantee in lieu of returning to the market earlier.
I don't think sabermetrics were required to look at Williams' entire body of work and suggest that 2025 was something of a blip. I believe enough MLB teams mostly agreed with that in their evaluation of him last winter.
Nor is it all that complicated to note that a pitcher typically strands around 72% of his baserunners (Williams entered 2025 around 82%), so Williams stranding only 55.2% of his baserunners with the Yankees was an aberration. With relievers, we're dealing in very small samples, in this case 62 innings. For example, Emmanuel Clase stranded only 60.5% of his baserunners in 2023, and that didn't represent any kind of meaningful trend. Still, there's a lot more to unpack regarding Williams' time in New York.
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6 Potential Breakout Arms To Watch In 2026
The early stages of any major league season are rife with unexpected performances -- be they unexpectedly good or unexpectedly bad -- that leave many fans and onlookers wondering whether an April change in production is the beginning of a trend or simply some small-sample noise that'll even out over a larger slate of plate appearances or innings pitched. Sifting through what's real and what's likelier to be smoke and mirrors is both one of the most exciting and also most frustrating elements of the season's first couple months.
This, as with most everything in baseball, is an inexact science. Teams spend millions to build out data and analytics departments that can develop predictive models in an effort to more accurately quantify these things. Sites like FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, PitcherList, Baseball America and countless others offer heaps of publicly available data that allow those of us on the outside looking in to throw our own hats into the ring as we attempt to decipher whose ostensible breakouts are going to hold up ... and who'll come back down to Earth.
MLBTR's Darragh McDonald took a look last week at Jose Soriano's in-progress breakout in Anaheim -- a huge development for the Halos that could have a broad range of implications. Readers are encouraged to check that out in full, but here are six more arms (plus a couple "honorable mentions," of sorts) whose 2026 strides have piqued my interest. Obviously, this isn't a comprehensive list of every possible breakout arm in the sport, but the arrows here are pointing up. (Players are listed alphabetically, not ranked.)
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