Front Office Subscriber Chat With Anthony Franco: TODAY At 4:00pm Central
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be holding a live chat today at 4:00 pm Central, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers!
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6 Teams Dealing With Option Crunches
Spring training is in full swing, and various non-roster veterans and top prospects jostling for space on major league rosters. MLBTR's Anthony Franco took a look yesterday at some players who are out of minor league options and could find themselves squeezed off their current roster, depending on spring plays out.
There's another angle with which one can view minor league options, of course: the team side of things. Clubs generally try to avoid stacking too many veteran players who either lack minor league options or have the five-plus years of service needed in order to have say over a potential optional assignment to the minors. Having too many players who can't be optioned can set a club back when there's a player or two who needs a couple days off but does not need a full IL stint.
It's also common in today's game for clubs to aggressively shuffle their bullpens over the course of a season, too; a lack of optionable players can create a headache for clubs after a blowout or marathon extra-inning game that taxes the majority of the pitching staff. Being able to summon a fresh arm or two from Triple-A without needing to pass someone else through waivers is crucial to preserving depth and keeping a team's best arms healthy.
Most clubs have plenty of flexibility when it comes to these situations, but that's not universally true. Around 20% of the league has a very limited number of players who can be sent down without needing to clear waivers, and that could lead to some tough decisions for those clubs as Opening Day draws near. Let's take a run through some of the game's least-flexible rosters and see what sort of decisions they'll be facing as the spring winds down.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon everyone, hope all is well!
- Kind of a boring week in terms of baseball news but hey, we're closing in on meaningful games! Let's discuss
donaldmac3@comcast.net
- What is the first thing the Chisox should do to get back to their winning ways, and I know better pitching is essential. I was born in Chicago nearly 80 years ago, and I have followed the Sox my entire life. Baseball is the best game.
Anthony Franco
- Agreed, pitching's the big hangup here. I still think this is a below-average position player group in 2026 but you can see it coming together with Teel, Montgomery, Quero, the upside play on Murakami, potential solid role players in Meidroth/Acuña
- Pitching's still pretty far behind. I like the Newcomb/Kay fliers well enough to raise the floor, buy Shane Smith as a league average starter. It's a low-upside pitching staff for now, though
- Biggest factor long term is whether one of Schultz and Smith dials in the strikes enough to be a top-of-the-rotation arm. They're eventually going to need to add a stable #2/3 type via free agency or trade, but it's not the time yet to push in for that
LFGM
- Last season the MLBTR team was on point about the Mets biggest issue being SP, as that ended up being their downfall, even if the first two months of the year it looked like a miss, what do you guys think this year’s team biggest weakness is?
Anthony Franco
- I think they're pretty well balanced this year, nothing concerns me quite as much as the lack of high-end starting pitching did at this time last season.
If there is some kind of fatal flaw that tanks the season, it'd probably be the bullpen? It's a solid group but the late innings are heavily reliant on rebounds from Williams/Weaver and if those don't happen, they'd be in some trouble
- Right there with the Phillies as the top teams in the NL East for me though. Not sure if others on the MLBTR staff are a little lower on them
Brewers Fan
- Is there a rhyme or reason to when each teams off-season review comes out? To you wait on ones that you think may still make moves? Or is it just random draw?
Anthony Franco
- Mostly random. We do try to start with the teams that we feel are less likely to make a significant move between when we publish it and Opening Day
- We're basically down to Giolito and Littell as the remaining free agents who'd get more than a cursory mention in an OiR anyway, so it's not as big a deal this year. Was more of a consideration during the "Boras Four" year or certainly the lockout one when we had to drag the series well into the regular season
- There's also just a logistical thing where Mark Polishuk takes around six of these every year and Tim Dierkes usually does the Chicago teams. Neither of them are full-time MLBTR employees -- the site is obviously Tim's focus but he's often tied up with behind the scenes stuff with the developers, web features, etc. -- so the teams that they claim are subject to their other scheduling stuff in a way that mine, Darragh's and Steve's are not
Steve
- If Endy Rodriguez keeps up a good pace this spring, do you see the Pirates keeping him on the roster as a DH/Backup C&1B, or is the roster constructed in a way that blocks him completely?
Anthony Franco
- Certainly don't think he's blocked. Bart's out of options but Davis and Rafael Flores can both be sent down, so they could roll with Endy as the backup catcher and keep the latter two in Triple-A
- Given how little Endy has played the last two years, my guess is they roll with Davis/Bart and start Rodríguez in Indy, but it's not like Davis has done enough at the major league level that he needs to be on the active roster
Connor with a K
- Given Bob Nutting's historical aversion to giving up control/arn years of young talented players (e.g. Skenes, Chandler), do you think it's realistic that Konnor Griffin actually makes the Opening Day roster even if he has a monster spring?
Bounty
- What do you think the over/under on Konnor Griffin breaking camp with the big club? I really need him to go to the minors so I can select him with the first overall pick in our taxi portion of the roto auction league I'm in.
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Out Of Options Players To Watch This Spring
The final few days of Spring Training always come with a significant amount of roster shuffling. Prospects play their way onto the team. Veterans on minor league deals trigger opt-out or upward mobility clauses that force teams to decide whether to select their contracts or let them go. Each of those unexpected promotions costs someone else an active roster spot.
For players who still have minor league options remaining, that's less likely to spur roster movement. They can be sent down without going on waivers, so they'll only be designated for assignment if they're the final player on the 40-man roster. Teams face a tougher call when deciding on a fringe player who is out of options. Do they shoehorn them onto the bench or in a low-leverage relief role? If not, there's a decent chance they're losing that player via waivers or a trade for a minimal return.
We've already seen a number of players whose out-of-options status has pushed them around the league. Although it's not technically an offseason consideration, an out-of-options player is more likely to be DFA over the winter if the team thinks they'll inevitably be squeezed off the roster at the end of Spring Training.
Jack Suwinski, Vidal Brujan, Ben Rortvedt, Andy Ibáñez and Marco Luciano are among the players who have changed teams at least once (often multiple times) because of their out-of-options status. The Yankees finally succeeded in getting Luciano through waivers unclaimed. The other four players remain on their clubs' respective 40-man rosters, though with the possible exception of Ibáñez, they're all facing uphill paths to avoiding another DFA a month from now.
We'll run through a few more who could be playing for their jobs this spring. This isn't our annual exhaustive list of every out-of-options player on a 40-man roster. That'll also be published soon and will include a number of names (e.g. Edward Cabrera, Jo Adell) who obviously aren't getting cut. This exercise will set aside any players like those aforementioned who have already changed teams this offseason and plenty more who seem most likely to clear waivers and remain with their current clubs in a non-roster capacity.
- Luis Matos/Jerar Encarnacion (Giants)
The Giants are unlikely to have room on the roster for Matos and Encarnacion. There's a decent chance they both end up squeezed off the roster. They're each right-handed bats with limited defensive value. Matos has played some center field but should be limited to the corners. Encarnacion is a corner outfielder/first baseman.
Matos has the better shot of the two to win a bench job. He's four years younger and not too far removed from being one of the organization's better prospects. Matos has had flashes of capable offense built around his plus bat-to-ball skills, but an aggressive approach has limited his consistency. The 24-year-old owns a .231/.281/.369 batting line with 15 home runs across 593 MLB plate appearances over the past three years. He's a .287/.345/.505 hitter at the Triple-A level.
Encarnacion hasn't produced much in 54 big league games over the past two seasons. His '25 campaign was repeatedly interrupted by injuries. Encarnacion has mashed in Triple-A when healthy and has obvious power upside in a 6'4", 260 pound frame.
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MLB Mailbag: Giolito, Littell, Kopech, White Sox, Mets
This week's mailbag gets into the lingering free agencies of Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell, and Michael Kopech, multiple White Sox questions, a look at the Mets' rotation, and much more.
Marshal asks:
Why do we think Giolito and Littell have yet to sign? Most other FA left have large red flags either in past performance or injuries. These two are a clear cut above the rest (with the exception of Scherzer who reportedly is being picky about which team). Is it that they are being picky about what team, or are they holding out for bigger money? Teams like the Braves, Angels, A's and more could easily fit these guys into the middle/back of their rotation and yet they all seem unwilling to make a move for these two. Is it related to the TV deals collapsing?
Generally when a pitcher is unsigned this late in the offseason, there's a likely mismatch between their expectations and reality.
In terms of late-signing quality free agent pitchers who did not receive a qualifying offer, one recent example was Jordan Montgomery. He went out looking for over $100MM, and wound up signing a one-year deal (with a vesting option) on March 26th of 2024.
A more distant but also more comparable example was Jake Odorizzi. He'd accepted a qualifying offer for 2020, but wound up pitching only 13 2/3 innings for the Twins due to injuries and the shortened season. We pegged him for three years and $39MM nonetheless, and it was later revealed his asking price was indeed in that range. Amid a pandemic, Odorizzi wasn't able to find that, and instead settled for a $23.5MM guarantee from the Astros on March 8th.
We projected two years and $32MM for Giolito back on November 6th. When I was making my own projection in October, I went with three years and $51MM, but didn't mind bringing that down given the uncertain status of his elbow. That injury ended Giolito's season on September 23rd; he wasn't able to make it back for the postseason. The righty professed full health in November. So why is he still unsigned?
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! We'll get going at 2pm CT today. Feel free to submit questions ahead of time, and we'll get going in a bit less than two hours!
- Hello! Let's get underway
Sam
- It seems like consensus that STL is taking a step back, which I why I am picking them for this exercise. If they played in the AL Central instead of the NL would the be competitive?
Steve Adams
- No, I don't think the AL Central is that bad. They'd be in better shape than in the NL Central, but the Tigers would still be heavy favorites and I wouldn't say the Cards are better than Kansas City or Cleveland.In general, I think their pitching is going to struggle, and while they have a lot of very good defenders on that roster, they're also going to be giving regular reps to guys who can only be considered defensive negatives (Walker, Gorman, Herrera).Bullpen is very suspect, too -- especially if they still trade Romero before Opening Day, which is possible.
Zack Littell
- I've been an above-average starter for two years now. Are teams really that scared to give me a deal along the lines of 2 years/25 million? I think at this point, I'd take that.
Steve Adams
- I would be shocked if he gets 2/25 at this point.
- That's about what I would've thought he'd get back in November/December
- At this point, I imagine he's going to take a year in the $8-12MM range?
Coach Chad
- Who do you think the biggest surprise that has had to take a minor league deal so far? And one that will have to get in camp ?
Steve Adams
- Probably Walker Buehler? Which is maybe contradictory, since I wouldn't have guaranteed him a 40-man spot on my fake team, haha, but I thought someone would just based on the name value -- even if it was a $5MM or so guarantee.Mildly surprised that Rhys Hoskins had to take one, but he hasn't been the same since the ACL tear, and the market pretty regularly craps on defensively limited corner bats like this, so that one's not as much of a surprise
- Much of that Hoskins bit applies to Nate Lowe, too (minus the ACL portion, of course, ha)
Springfield Nine
- Hi Steve, lots of comments from Eric Lauer about being a starter this spring. Any chance the Jays pull a trade to make that happen? What kind of return could he get?
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Greetings! Anthony and I flipped the Monday/Friday chats this week since I was off for the holiday, so you're stuck with me today. Apologies in advance!We'll get going around 3pm CT, but feel free to submit a question(s) ahead of time if you prefer!
- We'll get started a few minutes early today and go til a bit after 4
BaseballRadio
- Curious as to how the Cleveland Ownership can justify doing literally nothing to upgrade the offense, while dropping to around 70 million in payroll, pending the Clase/Ortiz situation… literally dead last in MLB ?
Steve Adams
- It's pretty inexplicable. The only significant move they made this winter was extending Ramirez on a deal that saved them $10MM in 2026. They re-signed Austin Hedges and bought a few cheap, one-year relievers.For me, they had far and away the worst offseason in baseball. There are so many glaring holes in that lineup, and they're content to just hope a club that produced an AL-worst .226/.296/.373 batting line (87 wRC+) will become serviceable from an offensive standpoint based solely on in-house improvement and promotions of Bazzana, DeLauter, etc.
- It's an indefensible offseason, and if I were a Cleveland fan, I'd be livid. I joked the other day with colleagues that maybe the Dolans are trying to force people to say "Look! See how badly MLB needs a floor!" ... and while I was mostly kidding, I wonder whether there's some partial truth to that sentiment.
Matt
- Now that Pablo Lopez is out any chance the Twins listen to offers for Byron Buxton?
J. Zoll
- So . . . a lot of Twins fans think trading Joe Ryan ASAP is the right thing to do in the wake of Pablo Lopez's need for TJ. This late in the winter, though, I'm wondering if a guy couldn't get more of a return closer to the deadline. Your thoughts?
Sam
- Hey Steve, thanks as always for the chat! What avenue do you see the Twins taking to address the Pablo replacement while he recovers? Sign Giolito/Littell/Scherzer/another FA, acquire a seasoned innings eater via trade, or work with what they have?
Steve Adams
- Lots and lots of Twins questions post-Pablo
- For starters, no they're not going to trade Ryan now. Demand is down -- though teams would still want him -- and Tom Pohlad has done nothing but talk about how he wants to be aggressive and win now since he took over the executive chair position. They're not going to be good (unless about 15 different things break their way), but it's pretty hard for an owner to pull that kind of about-face when his whole schtick so far has been "I'm going to be accountable, answer tough questions and win back the fans."I don't think that's going to happen, but I don't see any way they trade Ryan before Opening Day. Deadline? Sure. But not before then.
- Ditto Buxton on all that
- I do think there's a realistic chance the Twins give a one-year deal to Giolito or Littell. I guess they could throw a year at Tyler Anderson to bring in some cheaper, fairly durable innings as well.There aren't many teams left with much budget space, but the Twins made a late run at Framber Valdez, so Pohlad clearly isn't married to the payroll staying at its $108MM-ish current level. It wouldn't be exciting, but his comments keep saying he wants to show the fans they'll try and be aggressive under his watch, well ... Gio/Littell is about the closest he can come at this point.
- Even before the report on the Jays/Scherzer picking up talks, there was no way Max was signing in Minnesota. He wants a clear win-now contender.
Tribefan528
- Is it inevitable that Agustin Ramirez moves to 1B? How does his bat project at dh/1b?
Steve Adams
- Guys make crazy improvements all the time, but Ramirez would need seismic gains behind the plate to stay at catcher. He had one of the worst defensive seasons ever for a catcher... -14 DRS and -12 FRV per Statcast -- in only 605 innings!Even if you don't like/trust modern metrics, he had an 8.8% caught-stealing rate and allowed NINETEEN passed balls in 605 frames. Plus 36 wild pitches!
- He has enough power to be a 1B/DH, but he undercuts that power by chasing too much ... if you're going to be a RH 1B/DH, you need more than a 6% walk rate.
- He's only 24, but last season was pretty rough in all aspects, other than ripping 21 homers in 536 PAs.
john
- Why has Giolito to Atl not happened yet?
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Which Clubs Could Provide A Landing Spot For The Top Remaining Starters?
Every offseason, at least a handful of free agents linger on the market well into spring training. At times, that's been true even of the top names on the market. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado both signed their free agent contracts in February. Blake Snell, Matt Chapman and Jordan Montgomery all signed contracts in March during the 2023-24 offseason.
Things are a bit different this winter. The very top names among this year's crop of free agents have all come off the board. Framber Valdez and, to a lesser extent, Zac Gallen were the remaining big-ticket items on the market before signing in Detroit and Arizona, respectively.
Though there's no marquee superstar left unsigned, there are still some good starters on the board. Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell and Max Scherzer top the remaining group. In Scherzer's case, it's not entirely clear whether he'll sign prior to Opening Day. Scherzer is healthy and ready to sign at any time, but he told The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal late last month that he's being selective with his next home and would be content to wait to sign midseason if an opportunity on one of his preferred teams does not present itself. It stands to reason that Scherzer prefers a clear win-now club with realistic postseason aspirations. Any preferences beyond that -- be they geographic, monetary or otherwise -- are personal preferences that he has not divulged.
Giolito and Littell, however, are ready-made mid-rotation starters who, unlike their quadragenarian free agent counterpart, seemingly aren't lingering as a means of personal preference. Each has his flaws, certainly, but there's little doubt that either is a big league-caliber starter and that there are teams around the game who'd benefit from adding them to the rotation.
Let's take a look at each pitcher and which teams might have the remaining budget space and/or rotation need to make a play.
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Under-The-Radar Trade Possibilities For The Astros
The Astros have spent the entire offseason looking for a left-handed hitting outfielder. They swapped Jesús Sánchez for Joey Loperfido last week. That saves around $6MM in the difference between Sánchez's arbitration salary and Loperfido's league minimum sum but doesn't change their lineup balance. They added Cavan Biggio on a minor league deal and are reportedly looking at Michael Conforto, who could also settle for a non-roster invite after a rough year in Los Angeles. They're fine depth targets but not locks to even be on the MLB roster -- much less to be a meaningful upgrade.
Free agency only offers those types of reclamation targets at this point. Beyond Conforto, there are also Max Kepler (suspended for the first 80 games after a failed PED test), Jesse Winker and Alex Verdugo. If the Astros are going to make a significant move, it'll have to be via trade. Most of their trade pursuits have been tied to their willingness to field offers on Isaac Paredes given their infield logjam. That's one avenue but obviously not the only way they could trade for a lefty-hitting outfielder.
MLBTR readers are familiar with the top trade targets who fit the bill. Either Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu would be an ideal fit but seem likelier to remain in Boston. The Cardinals could deal Lars Nootbaar this spring but may prefer to hold him until the deadline, as they'd be selling a little low with their left fielder coming off a pair of heel surgeries. Last week's Caleb Durbin/Kyle Harrison swap is a reminder that teams explore various avenues that don't involve players who have been the subject of public trade speculation. It's safe to assume the Astros have had some of those conversations behind the scenes. Let's run through a handful of affordable left-handed bats whom they could look to pry from another club.
- Daylen Lile, Nationals (pre-arbitration, controllable through 2031)
Lile made his MLB debut in late May and hit the ground running, at least offensively. He ran a .299/.347/.498 slash line with nine home runs through 351 plate appearances. Lile is an excellent pure hitter. He has advanced contact ability and has always hit a ton of line drives. Although he doesn't have huge power, he should have a strong offensive floor based on the batting average alone. He's a career .273 hitter in the minors and had the highest "expected" batting average in MLB last year (.302), per Statcast.
All that said, the 23-year-old looks more like a quality complementary player than a cornerstone of a rebuilding Nationals team. Lile was a mid-tier prospect during his climb through the farm system. Scouts have never doubted the hit tool but have questioned how much all-around impact he'll make. He has fringe-average power. Although he has plus straight line speed, his reads in the outfield are rough. Defensive Runs Saved had Lile a dismal 14 runs below average in just over 600 innings. He was 10 runs worse than average by Statcast.
Single-season defensive metrics can be fluky, but those grades match the eye test. Here are a handful of examples of Lile turning what should have been easy outs into hits, largely by playing very conservatively at the catch point. Maybe he'll improve with time, but he's not a good outfielder right now. The Astros haven't cared much about left field defense, playing Yordan Alvarez, late-career Michael Brantley, and Jose Altuve out there in recent years. The Nationals have a new front office that played no part in drafting or developing Lile. They'd presumably be open to conversations.
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MLB Mailbag: Red Sox, Brewers, Phillies, Braves
This week's mailbag gets into the Red Sox and their offense, Masataka Yoshida's trade value, how far Jacob deGrom is from Hall of Fame consideration, the Brewers and Christian Yelich's contract, the Phillies' and Braves' rotations, and how revenue sharing money is spent. Now that Bruce Meyer has been named executive director of the MLBPA, I've added thoughts on that news at the bottom of this article.
Christopher asks:
Do the Red Sox have enough offense to make the playoffs?
David asks:
It's two weeks before the trade deadline and the Red Sox are in contention but it's painfully obvious they didn't solve their problem with needing a power hitter. I appreciate it's only February but look into your crystal ball. Who are their likely targets?
Dave asks:
Given the fact Luis Arraez recently signed for $12M year contract, do you still feel there is no value for some team picking up Yoshida? Both have bad marks defensively and Arraez has a higher batting average but Yoshida provides more power, so that may balance out. Worse case someone should take Yoshida for at least $8M.
Lloyd asks:
Boston has an OF glut and Duran is mentioned as the one to most likely be traded. Detroit has an INF glut and Torres is tradeable after June 15. Is there a match here, assuming both players are healthy and productive? Would Boston move Duran for Anderson or Lee, Tiger Top-10 prospects who rank in the lower end of the top 110 MLB prospects? Detroit could use an OF bat for the big push. Assuming salary/contract considerations offer no stumbling block, is this something that would work?
The Red Sox continue to have room for a major addition at second or third base, given that recent addition Caleb Durbin can play either spot. Such a pickup would bump Durbin or Marcelo Mayer to the bench, which already has a pair of infielders in Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Romy Gonzalez. (Or Mayer could return to Triple-A, where he's only played 43 games).
It's worth keeping in mind that the most accurate projection system, The Bat X, has Durbin posting an 85 wRC+ this year, Mayer at 86, and Kiner-Falefa at 69. Gonzalez is at 102, but he's done almost all his damage against left-handed pitching. Even veteran shortstop Trevor Story is only at 97 in that projection system. Throw in catcher Carlos Narvaez at 83 and Ceddanne Rafaela at 88, and there's a pretty good chance five of nine Red Sox lineup spots feature subpar offense.
Certainly, there is room for a Mayer breakout or a Kristian Campbell bounceback (Campbell is outfield-focused). Durbin and Narvaez could sustain more of last year's success. Story may hit like he did from June onward last year. Rafaela flashed brilliance at the plate for a couple months.
But that's quite a few "ifs," and the club is reliant on good health from 33-34-year-olds Story and Willson Contreras.
Offense isn't everything, which is why FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a healthy 60.1 shot at the playoffs this year. The club projects to get a lot of value out of its outfield and DH spots; they're fifth in baseball in total WAR for those four spots. The opposite is true of Boston's infield, which rates 26th. And that does account for the club's likely improved infield defense.
The Red Sox rank first in all of baseball for projected starting pitcher WAR. About 72% of that value is coming from the trio at the top: Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez. While the Sox do have a wealth of solid depth options behind them, it's fair to say a major injury to Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Roman Anthony, or Rafaela could knock them out of the playoff picture. I'm sure you could say that about the top five players of any team, but three of these are pitchers. Crochet and Suarez have lengthy injury histories, and Gray is 36.
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