Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Hey all, hope you're doing well!
- Looking forward to another of these, let's get goin
- Going even
- Great start
RoxTalks
- What could the Rockies conceivably get back at the deadline if they actually sell at the deadline, rather than sit on their valuable pieces until they aren't valuable anymore or watch them walk for free like they so often do? Could Goodman get a back-end top 100 prospect despite the strikeout issues given the positional/offensive value? Senzatela two mid-range organizational prospects? Is there anyone else that might entice other teams?
Anthony Franco
- Yeah I think Goodman would pull a back-end Top 100 guy. Three and a half years of a serviceable defensive catcher with 25-30 HR upside is pretty valuable even with the approach questions
- Doubt he'd net a top 50 headliner though, and if the Rockies are looking at something like the #85 overall prospect and a couple mid-tier fliers, I assume they'd again hold. That's a tough sell for ownership
- With you on Senzatela's value and think he's a lock to move as long as he doesn't get hurt
- There's not much beyond that. There'll be teams that love Halvorsen, doubt the Rox move him. Moniak netting a mid-level prospect as a strong side platoon, sure. Center field market might be bleak enough that the Guardians, Astros or Rays view McCarthy as a low-end regular
Chris
- Any concern about Kyle Tucker?
Anthony Franco
- A little bit. Plate discipline is strong enough that the floor should still be an above-average hitter but the exit velocities were always more good than great and have trended down over the past two years
- I'll take the over on his 12-homer pace but could see him settling in as a low 20s HR guy rather than pushing 30 like he did when healthy in Houston
- And if that's where he ends up, he's probably more like 20-25 points better than average offensively rather than 40, which is what the Dodgers paid him for
Nick
- If Sox take Cholowsky 1/1 and they’re still in serious contention in September does he get called up if he’s bashing in the minors?
Anthony Franco
- Higher chance of it with Cholowsky than if they take Vahn Lackey -- can't see any way they'd throw a catcher in that spot -- but would still guess it's a '27 ETA. The infield's pretty well positioned already and you'd be talking about 35-40 games of minor league experience at the end of the longest season of his career
Fenway Yard Sale
- If things continue as they have what pieces do the Red Sox trade and what could come back. Any chance they could also get anything for Bello, or Campbell?
Anthony Franco
- Campbell no. Limited defensive value with a 30% strikeout rate in Triple-A this year and owed $60MM for the next eight seasons. This the quickest any of those early-career top prospect extensions have soured
- I half jokingly proposed that they should've put Campbell on waivers last offseason to shed the contract. They were never going to do that obviously -- nor would I have had the stones to do it if I were running baseball ops -- but I'm pretty confident he'd go unclaimed if they waived him now
- I think that's also true of Bello but could see more of an argument for them paying down some money if they just think everyone involved needs a change of scenery. If the Sox pay him down to $8-10M annually, doesn't seem crazy to get a team like Arizona or Washington that has no real long-term starting pitching to roll the dice
My name?
- What are the cards going to do? They came into the year having signed Stanek and May with the obvious hope that they'd prove some value and be valuable trade assets to offload along with Romero and possibly Noot, Burleson, and O'Brien. But now they're like really in contention? Even if they do not buy, they loose considerable opportunity to improve for the future by holding on to those players. And for what? To have guys like Leahy, Libratore, Pallante, and McCheesey starting playoff games against the Braves or Dodgers or Brewers?
Rebuild or no
- With teams like the Cardinals and white Sox finding themselves in contention instead of rebuilding. And contenders like the Mets, tigers and Red Sox possibly selling how does they affect the deadline?
-
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
BENEFITS- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Free Agent Power Rankings: The Next Five
MLBTR published our updated iteration of the Free Agent Power Rankings on Monday. That includes full breakdowns of our top 10 in the class. Darragh McDonald and Steve Adams also devoted much of this week's podcast to breaking down the process and debates about the back half of that list.
It's certainly the weakest class in recent memory. That's most acute at the top behind Tarik Skubal and Freddy Peralta. There might not be a third nine-figure player in the class. While that makes it a less exciting group overall, it also leaves the middle tiers more muddled. Some players in the 11-20 range right now could jump into the top five. Others who were arguably near the top of the class a couple months ago (e.g. Bo Bichette, Trevor Rogers) have dropped even more quickly.
As we did after our first version in April, we'll run through the next five players who weren't far off the list. They're ordered here alphabetically, but it also works out that the first name is the player who was our consensus #11.
Kevin Gausman, SP, Blue Jays
Gausman will land among the top 10 in the class in terms of average annual value. There's an argument that he's the second-best player for 2027 alone behind Skubal. His numbers over the past three-plus seasons are at least quite comparable to Peralta's. The only hangup is age.
The two-time All-Star will play all of next season at 36. Max Scherzer is the only free agent starter 36 or older to sign for three years since 2017; Scherzer's $130MM deal with the Mets started at age 37. Nathan Eovaldi was entering his age-35 season when he re-signed with Texas for three years and $75MM. Merrill Kelly signed for two years and $40MM last offseason at 37.
Gausman hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. He carries a 3.60 ERA across 80 innings. He's averaging just under six innings per start and has managed a quality start in half of his outings. He has above-average strikeout and whiff rates while very rarely issuing free passes. He's no longer a Cy Young candidate like Scherzer and Justin Verlander were in their late 30s, but he's probably a tier above Kelly and Chris Bassitt.
The veteran righty should be in the $25-30MM range on an annual basis, which would put him in the Eovaldi bucket. If he gets to three years, he'll very likely wind up with one of the 10 largest contracts in the class. That'd be tough to accomplish on a two-year deal, even in a thin group. Gausman is ineligible for a qualifying offer after receiving one from the Giants in 2020, so he won't be attached to draft compensation.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
MLB Mailbag: Devers, Nationals, DFA Carousels, Guardians, Red Sox
I'm pinch-hitting for MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes on this week's MLB Mailbag! In this edition, we'll get into Rafael Devers' contract and trade value (or lack thereof), the Nationals' unexpectedly strong performance and how it could shape their deadline, the revolving door for "41st men" on 40-man rosters (e.g. Atlanta's Carlos Carrasco), the Guardians' deadline needs, the Red Sox' search for a right-handed bat and more.
Onto the questions...
Peter asks...
With Rafael Devers hitting again (and his defense at first base very good) how would you rate his value on the open market taking into account his remaining contract? What level of return would you expect the Giants might get for him and what teams do you think would be most interested in him? Would the Giants have to pay down any of his remaining contract?
Devers is indeed hitting better after an awful start to the season. Following a disastrous .207/.248/.289 slash and 31% strikeout rate through the end of April (129 plate appearances), he's rebounded with a .257/.321/.500 line over his 165 most recent trips to the plate. It's an encouraging turnaround, but there are some red flags worth mentioning.
First and foremost, that 31% strikeout rate that dogged Devers through his dreadful early slump hasn't abated. Over this stretch of 165 plate appearances, he's fanned at a 30.9% clip -- effectively the exact same rate. The biggest differences have been a modest bump in power (six homers in this stretch) and a huge spike in Devers' batting average on balls in play. His BABIP in that slump was a roughly league-average .288. During this turnaround, he's at .344.
That doesn't all come down to luck. Devers' exit velocity has jumped from an average of 89.8 mph during that cold snap to a huge 93.4 mph in his hot streak. His hard-hit rate has soared from a solid 41.5% to an elite 55.6%. Devers is making better contact, so it only stands to reason that more of his balls in play should be landing for hits.
Be that as it may, however, Devers still isn't walking much. His contact rate on pitches within the strike zone, even during his recent surge, is 75% -- well shy of the league-average 85.9%. And while Devers has been good during this span, he hasn't been his peak self. By measure of wRC+, Devers has been about 27% better than average since early May. That's very good, but it's not close to his best output. Back in 2021-22, for instance, Devers crushed 65 homers in 297 games and did so with rate stats that placed him about 36% better than average: .287/.355/.530. His strikeout rate over those two years was 20.1%. His contact rate on balls in the zone was still below average but was five percentage points higher than during this recent revival.
All of that is to say, Devers has been performing like an above-average but flawed hitter since the beginning of May. That's a nice development after he looked lost to begin the season -- and after he dealt with a disk injury in his lower back last summer -- but does it restore any semblance of trade value? I don't believe so.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! I'll get going at about 2pm CT, but feel free to submit a question(s) ahead of time if you're so inclined. Looking forward to it!
- Good afternoon! I'll get going in one minute here, just wrapping up a long email on our forthcoming Free Agent Power Rankings.
- Ok!
Little Texas
- could you see the Rangers moving in the outfield walls this winter or try signing more power hitters
Steve Adams
- They've already brought in power hitters on both sides of the plate. Neither Joc Pederson nor Jake Burger has had the impact they hoped. I can see them altering the dimensions at some point, yeah. Seems like they're pretty surprised the new Globe Life plays so pitcher-friendly.
Guy Incognito
- Hi Steve. Do you think the uncertainty of the next CBA and possible work stoppage is going to affect trade deadline targets? I was wondering specifically about guys that have extra years of control beyond 2026. Would a guy with 1 extra year be treated as such if 2027 might get washed out? Would a guy with 2+years be affected because of the possible salary cap?
Steve Adams
- It didn't have a major impact last time around, just like the shortened Covid season didn't have a huge impact on the trade deadline. Teams are motivated to win now, and I expect everyone to operate under the assumption that there'll be a lockout but no games lost. I think fans have a more pessimistic outlook on games being played in '27 than a lot of people who work within the sport, which is kind of the point. The league is trying (and succeeding) to rally fan sentiment/support for the cap with a lot of doom-and-gloom narratives but I don't think nearly as many front office people (I'm sure there are some) see it as a foregone conclusion that games will be lost.
Steve
- Instead of teaching and encouraging pitchers to throw ungodly MPH. Is it a lost cause to teach pitchers how to pitch instead of throw? This, in my mind, cut down TJ surgeries, especially younger and younger kids getting the operation. I site a prime example of Greg Maddox. It takes strategy. Have a great fastball...that's fine, but there are a few pitchers scattered throughout MLB that are good pitchers and not gifted with speed. I was going to point to a guy like Bailey Ober, but I think even he had the surgery. Any thoughts on any of this. Love the chats. Thanks.
-
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
BENEFITS- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Is It Even Worth It For The Mets To Be Sellers?
The Mets' season spiraled out of control far quicker than anyone could have reasonably anticipated. Even those who thought New York's NL club would miss the 2026 postseason probably weren't forecasting a 27-35 record placing them third from the bottom in the league, trailing a rebuilding Nationals club or a $75MM-payroll Marlins team.
Many Mets fans are -- understandably! -- waving the white flag already and calling for the team to be deadline sellers. The Mets, unsurprisingly, aren't in any rush to part with veteran players. No team is pivoting to sellers in early June. The Mets might very well end up in that bucket come late July/early August, but unless they're 10 or more games back at that point, the expected return doesn't necessarily outweigh the faint playoff chances they might still harbor. That's sure to be an unpopular sentiment among a vocal portion of the fan base, but let's take a look at who and what the Mets could reasonably peddle. The list of appealing trade candidates isn't especially compelling (which is a big reason they're in this mess in the first place).
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope all is well!
- Looking forward to another of these, let's get going
NL West
- How many playoff teams will the division have? SD looks like they are crashing down to earth and Arizona just lost the only rotation help they could afford this season.
Anthony Franco
- Yeah I'll stick with two even though I don't know that I'd pick either Arizona or San Diego to make it individually. Still think their combined playoff chances are above 50% though
The Knuder
- Are the Padres cooked? And, if so, what are they gonna sell at the deadline?
Anthony Franco
- Obviously went into this more here:
- https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/06/padres-trade-rumors-deal-from-b...
- I expect Machado and Merrill to bounce back enough that they'll hang around and won't need to sell, but they clearly need multiple bats and at least one starter no matter what happens with Musgrove and Pivetta
- Don't really see the path to doing all that unless they dangle a reliever -- Estrada or Bradgley make the most sense but you could sell me on Morejon -- in more of a baseball trade
Cat_Herder
- Tigers sweep the Rays and haven't lost in June. Is this is a fluke or are they turning a corner with Torres, Carp, etc. back in the lineup?
-
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
BENEFITS- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
The Padres’ Problems Are Mounting
The past couple weeks have not been kind to the Padres. They now have a season-high five-game losing streak after being swept in today's matinee series finale in Philadelphia. It's their third four-plus game skid of the season and second in as many weeks, as they've dropped nine of ten.
Six of those have come at the hands of the Phillies, who have turned their season around after a brutal April and managerial change. Philadelphia obviously deserves credit for that, but San Diego's recent results have magnified the issues that existed even when they were winning games. They won 18 of 25 games in April despite an underperforming lineup and one of the weakest on-paper rotations in the National League. The roster deficiencies have begun to catch up.
San Diego's early-season success means they're still in playoff position. They're 32-29 and right in the thick of the Wild Card race. Two-thirds of the National League is above .500, so a team's placement in the standings can move quickly.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote about the Padres' struggles this morning, observing that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has never shied away from big swings at the deadline. Unless they go into a freefall over the next two months, they'll likely be tied to a number of big names on the trade market. The needs are stacking up.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
MLB Mailbag: Royals, Cubs, Jordan Walker, Braves
This week's mailbag attempts to find a blueprint for the Royals, considers the Cubs' needs, ponders a Jordan Walker extension, examines Braves trade targets, explains how minor league options work, and much more!
D.T. asks:
Another season lost for the Royals. Other than BWJ and possibly Caglianone, their draft picks, which have all been very high, have traditionally been complete busts. What will it take to turn this organization around?
To answer this question, I'll start by taking roughly an eight-hour drive from Kansas City to Milwaukee. The Brewers seem to be the model for small market contention. How are they pulling it off?
Let's look at 2023 to present for the Brewers. Their position players have totaled 83.7 WAR since 2023, excluding those who were negative in that metric. Almost three-quarters of that WAR is concentrated in seven players. Here's how they were acquired:
William Contreras: 19.6% of total WAR. The Brewers picked up outfielder Esteury Ruiz as part of the Josh Hader trade at the 2022 deadline. Ruiz was a 45-grade prospect lacking in power who didn't profile as a likely regular. The Brewers then inserted themselves into the Braves-A's Sean Murphy trade a few months later, prying a controllable Contreras loose from Atlanta after a breakout 2022 season. But the Brewers had Ruiz because they first had Hader, an All-Star dominant reliever with a year and a couple months of control left. They had Hader because former GM Doug Melvin snagged him in a deal that sent Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers to the Astros in 2015.
Putting aside the significant work the David Stearns regime did to develop Hader into a star, Stearns was also willing to trade Hader while the Brewers sat in first place with a 90% chance at the playoffs. Aside from the need for bold trades and strong player development, the Brewers willingly put their 2022 playoff chances at risk (and they did miss the playoffs that year) to set in motion of sequence of trades that netted them Contreras, who became crucial in their 2023-26 run.
The Royals had zero playoff shot at the time, but J.J. Picollo did pull off his own masterstroke trade by shipping Aroldis Chapman to Texas for Cole Ragans in 2023 before the calendar turned to July. But assuming Ragans bounces back health and production-wise, he's the type of player the Brewers would be looking at trading this winter or at next year's trade deadline. So my point is that selling high on Ragans, if possible, could help set the Royals up for more sustained success.
Christian Yelich: 11.5% of WAR. Stearns made a "go for it" trade to acquire Yelich in January 2018 with five years left on his contract, extending him a couple years later. To do so they gave up a 60-grade medium risk prospect in Lewis Brinson, a 50-grade high risk in Isan Diaz, and a 60 grade high risk in Monte Harrison. So the Brewers gave up their first, fifth, and ninth-ranked prospects, presumably well-regarded around the game, yet none of them panned out. Would the Royals put Blake Mitchell, Kendry Chourio, and another good prospect in a deal for a controllable 4-5 WAR Major Leaguer? They probably haven't drafted well enough to feel they could sacrifice those players.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! I'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to start submitting questions ahead of time, as always.
- Good afternoon! Let's get underway
Ewitkows
- Are we past the super 2 point of the season, when is Pratt and Jett coming up for the Brewers?
Steve Adams
- Super Two no longer matters for Pratt. He signed an eight-year extension, buying out all his arb years and multiple free agent years. He started the season really poorly but has been hitting well the past month or so. I have to think he's under consideration for a promotion before too terribly long.
- It could be a modest consideration with Williams, but he also just hasn't hit his way onto the big league roster yet. He looked to be getting going a few weeks ago but has cooled back down. Not necessarily worried about his long-term outlook, but he's not really forcing the issue so the Brewers haven't brought him up yet.
Chief
- How do the Royals turn things around?
Steve Adams
- I'm really not sure they can. 15 under .500, losers of six in a row, lots of key arms on the shelf (Bubic, Ragans, Estevez, Mears), big drop-offs from some key bats (Pasquantino, Perez... Garcia to a lesser extent). I just don't think they're getting back on track this year. I'd be listening on Wacha, Lugo, Strahm, Schreiber ... Bubic, if he's healthy.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
The Struggling Middle Tier Of Free Agent Starters
It's no secret the upcoming free agent class is one of the weakest in recent memory. Aside from Tarik Skubal, who should do very well despite the bone chips surgery that cost him a couple months in his walk year, there's a lack of impact talent. Most of the focus has been on the lackluster hitting group, but there haven't been many impending free agent starters staking a claim to a significant contract either.
Freddy Peralta has been the clear #2 arm in the class. He's having a solid but not exceptional first year with the Mets, struggling to complete six innings while posting a career-low 24% strikeout rate. Peralta still seems on track for the second-largest contract, in large part because none of the prime-aged pitchers have made a strong push to unseat him.
Among impending free agent starters, the top performers through the season's first two months are all on the older side. Kevin Gausman (age 36 in 2027), Michael King (32), and Nick Martinez (36) have been the top performers. 34-year-old Clay Holmes was among that group until a Spencer Jones comebacker broke his right fibula. All those pitchers are trending toward significant annual salaries, but only King has much of a chance at topping three years. Holmes' injury and Martinez's subpar strikeout rate could keep them each at two.
[Related: Which Impending Free Agents Are Actually Improving Their Stock?]
There has been a fairly defined cutoff for the market's willingness to go long term on pitchers. In the past decade, only four free agent starters 32 or older have commanded four or more years: Jacob deGrom, Blake Snell, Hyun Jin Ryu and Nick Pivetta. The Pivetta deal was three-year money spread out over four for luxury tax purposes. Four years at that age has essentially been reserved for aces.
By contrast, there have been 10 free agent contracts of at least four years for 31-year-old starters in that time. Teams have treated that as a meaningful cutoff, leaving the door open for a pitcher in that age range to emerge as the second- or third-best arm in the class.
MLBTR's early April free agent power rankings offer a snapshot of which players we thought had the best chance to push Peralta for the #2 arm available. Let's check in on every 31 and under starter who either made our initial Power Ranking or the honorable mentions. For all but one, the first two months of the season have been bleak.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker