Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! I'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to start submitting questions ahead of time, as always.
- Good afternoon! Let's get underway
Ewitkows
- Are we past the super 2 point of the season, when is Pratt and Jett coming up for the Brewers?
Steve Adams
- Super Two no longer matters for Pratt. He signed an eight-year extension, buying out all his arb years and multiple free agent years. He started the season really poorly but has been hitting well the past month or so. I have to think he's under consideration for a promotion before too terribly long.
- It could be a modest consideration with Williams, but he also just hasn't hit his way onto the big league roster yet. He looked to be getting going a few weeks ago but has cooled back down. Not necessarily worried about his long-term outlook, but he's not really forcing the issue so the Brewers haven't brought him up yet.
Chief
- How do the Royals turn things around?
Steve Adams
- I'm really not sure they can. 15 under .500, losers of six in a row, lots of key arms on the shelf (Bubic, Ragans, Estevez, Mears), big drop-offs from some key bats (Pasquantino, Perez... Garcia to a lesser extent). I just don't think they're getting back on track this year. I'd be listening on Wacha, Lugo, Strahm, Schreiber ... Bubic, if he's healthy.
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The Struggling Middle Tier Of Free Agent Starters
It's no secret the upcoming free agent class is one of the weakest in recent memory. Aside from Tarik Skubal, who should do very well despite the bone chips surgery that cost him a couple months in his walk year, there's a lack of impact talent. Most of the focus has been on the lackluster hitting group, but there haven't been many impending free agent starters staking a claim to a significant contract either.
Freddy Peralta has been the clear #2 arm in the class. He's having a solid but not exceptional first year with the Mets, struggling to complete six innings while posting a career-low 24% strikeout rate. Peralta still seems on track for the second-largest contract, in large part because none of the prime-aged pitchers have made a strong push to unseat him.
Among impending free agent starters, the top performers through the season's first two months are all on the older side. Kevin Gausman (age 36 in 2027), Michael King (32), and Nick Martinez (36) have been the top performers. 34-year-old Clay Holmes was among that group until a Spencer Jones comebacker broke his right fibula. All those pitchers are trending toward significant annual salaries, but only King has much of a chance at topping three years. Holmes' injury and Martinez's subpar strikeout rate could keep them each at two.
[Related: Which Impending Free Agents Are Actually Improving Their Stock?]
There has been a fairly defined cutoff for the market's willingness to go long term on pitchers. In the past decade, only four free agent starters 32 or older have commanded four or more years: Jacob deGrom, Blake Snell, Hyun Jin Ryu and Nick Pivetta. The Pivetta deal was three-year money spread out over four for luxury tax purposes. Four years at that age has essentially been reserved for aces.
By contrast, there have been 10 free agent contracts of at least four years for 31-year-old starters in that time. Teams have treated that as a meaningful cutoff, leaving the door open for a pitcher in that age range to emerge as the second- or third-best arm in the class.
MLBTR's early April free agent power rankings offer a snapshot of which players we thought had the best chance to push Peralta for the #2 arm available. Let's check in on every 31 and under starter who either made our initial Power Ranking or the honorable mentions. For all but one, the first two months of the season have been bleak.
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Which Impending Free Agent Bats Are Actually Improving Their Stock?
In case you weren't aware, the upcoming offseason's free agent class is ... well, it's... not exactly the stronge-- ok, it's not good. It's a weak class. Despite being headlined by a two-time Cy Young winner, that was always expected to be the case. The fact that said Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal, is currently out following surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow only further dampens the group's overall earning power.
We're due for an update on our Free Agent Power Rankings. That'll likely be published at some point next week. Our power rankings are always based on total earning power rather than individual impact. If you're a 38-year-old ace, you probably won't rank as highly as a 28-year-old regular at third base, because that 28-year-old is going to have access to a much longer (and thus more lucrative overall) contract than said 38-year-old. Sorry Chris Sale, them's the breaks.
That said, it's been a brutal year for most of the names at the top of an already underwhelming free agent class -- pitchers and hitters alike. Skubal, as mentioned, had elbow surgery. He'll be back -- sooner than originally anticipated, by all accounts -- but he's not going to take home a third straight Cy Young Award. Bo Bichette can opt out of his Mets contract ... but he's hitting .225/.273/.317. Trevor Rogers missed time on the injured list and has a nearly 7.00 ERA through nine starts. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been terrific in May, but that only offsets an awful April. Tatsuya Imai came to MLB with plenty of hype and an opt-out-laden contract that potentially set him up to reenter free agency and cash in on a mega-deal next winter -- at least until he posted a 6.17 ERA through his first six MLB starts.
Any and all of these players have time to turn things around, and while the headline of this particular post is admittedly a bit hyperbolic, it's also true that most of the market's top bats aren't doing much to elevate their case. A big four months would make Chisholm's April a distant memory, but we're not there yet. Daulton Varsho has been better than average at the plate but hasn't shown the same power he did last year. Bichette's start has been dismal. Taylor Ward has followed up his 36-homer 2025 season by hitting two round-trippers through the first third of the 2026 season.
We'll cover a lot of the bigger names on the forthcoming update to our Power Rankings, but here's a look at some bats who probably won't make the list but are nonetheless trending in a positive direction. (Note that I'll be excluding some smaller-sample breakouts/resurgences for this list; Jorge Mateo's .324/.370/.471 slash looks great, but it's 73 plate appearances being propped up by a silly .455 BABIP and combined with a 30% strikeout rate. Let's not get too carried away.)
Brandon Lowe, 2B, Pirates
Pittsburgh's acquisition of Lowe in the three-team trade that sent Mike Burrows to Houston and Jacob Melton to Tampa Bay looks like one of the best moves of the offseason. The 31-year-old (32 in July) is in the midst of arguably the best season of his career. Lowe has belted 14 home runs in only 51 games. His 11.2% walk rate is the second-highest of his career, while his 23.7% strikeout rate is the second-lowest.
Not only are those excellent marks both relative to his career levels and the rest of the league, they both put a halt to some worrying trends. Lowe has always struck out a fair bit, but his 2022 mark of 22.9% looked like it might be a step in the right direction. Instead, it climbed to 27% from 2023-25 and did so while his walk rate plummeted to a career-worst 6.9% last year. Lowe still chases a bit too much, but he's made big gains on his in-zone contact rate and done so without sacrificing much in the way of hard-hit balls.
Durability will be key for Lowe, who played in only 415 of 648 possible games from 2022-25 (64%). However, he's currently on pace to match his career-high 39 home runs, set back in 2021, and he's doing so with the best strikeout-to-walk profile of his career.
If Lowe actually stays healthy and flirts with 40 homers, it's hard to imagine a scenario where he's not in the top 10 on our list. But even if his power output cools down, he's done a nice job improving his stock thus far.
The open market in modern baseball rarely rewards pure second basemen, which is what Lowe is at this point. He's played exactly three innings of outfield since the 2021 season wrapped, and he has all of 155 career innings at first base. It also rarely compensates 32-year-olds on long-term deals. Lowe has an uphill battle based on position and age, but he's still angling for a nice multi-year deal.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Hey all, hope you're well!
- I've been under the weather all week so going to keep this one right at an hour, let's get it going
NL Central
- I suggested in a previous chat that Nolan Arenado and Wilson Contreras would have the same fate as other hitters leaving STL/Busch, and it was met with skepticism. I had been hurt too often before. Nolan Arenado is running a wRC+ higher than all but one of his seasons in STL. Same for Willson. Is it just Busch or is it the dev team, or the hitting coaches? Seems crazy how often this happens.
Anthony Franco
- Contreras had stretches like this with STL. This is a little above his baseline but he's been a well above-average hitter everywhere he's been
- I think you have more of a case with Arenado's rebound but it's mostly coming at home, where Chase Field definitely plays more hitter-friendly than Busch, and probably has more to do with improved health than anything else
- Interesting debate with how little they've gotten from Gorman if they were better off holding Arenado than giving him away. Felt at the time like everyone needed the clean break, especially with where the organization was going, but you're probably looking at a win or two difference at third base in a season where the Cards are more competitive than they thought they'd be
Mike d
- Thoughts on a trade that would center around Matt McClain and top prospect for Duran? Boston and Cincy players could both use change of scenery.
Anthony Franco
- McLain's not doing anything for me at this point but I wouldn't give up a "top prospect" for Duran so I guess that's the bigger thing
AA
- my braves hit the ground running this year which is rare for my tenure.who do i trade for at the deadline? righty corner OF? starting pitcher? shortstop? bullpen? all seem like options but im ready for the big move. who is it and what will it cost?
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MLB Mailbag: Skubal, Nationals, Rays, Tibbs
This week's mailbag gets into the Tigers' decision points on Tarik Skubal, whether the Nationals can be taken seriously, how the Rays could upgrade, the current trade value of James Tibbs III, and more.
Chuck asks:
With the Tigers collapsing in the absence of Tarik Skubal, even with his return relatively imminent, the national media are salivating at the prospect of his escape from Detroit toward the bright lights (and easier access) of, I guess, the media centers of Los Angeles or New York. Assuming the Tigers don't recover to even .500 by late July, my questions are: (1) Is trading Skubal the only reasonable option the Tigers would have? (2) Is there a real scenario in which it would be better to retain Skubal and let him walk, accepting the sandwich pick instead? (3) If a trade is certain, are there actually any teams likely to give up true top-of-system value in return for two-plus months of Skubal, and which teams would those be? For the final question, please focus on your estimation of the best those teams would likely offer, rather than an estimation of what PBO Scott Harris would accept.
After a 10-6 loss Tuesday evening at the hands of the equally lousy Angels, the Tigers stand at 21-34 wth 34% of their season in the books. The Tigers still play in an AL Central where only the Guardians are projected to finish above .500, and in a league where the third Wild Card team is two games under. There seems to be a decent chance that in the AL this year, a .500 finish could net a playoff spot.
The Tigers have won only three of their last 20 games, yet still hold a 16.5% playoff chance. 68 days remain until the trade deadline, during which time the Tigers will play 58 games. The Tigers could reasonably let another third of their season play out before making a decision on Skubal, even if they need to lay some groundwork in July.
Skubal's last start was April 29th, and today marks the fifth start he's missed. In the immediate aftermath of the injury, I wrote in this mailbag that I found it unlikely we'd see Skubal before the August 3rd trade deadline. Then we learned about the NanoNeedle, a new smaller scope used to remove the loose body in Skubal's elbow. This was the first time this tool was used on an MLB player. Skubal threw a simulated game less than three weeks out from surgery, and there's talk of him returning in June. Remarkably, it seems like Skubal could make, say, nine or so big league starts before the deadline barring any setbacks. To answer Chuck's questions:
No, trading Skubal is not the only reasonable option the Tigers have. The 2024 Tigers didn't look like a playoff team on May 27th either (20.1% chance) and they did indeed have a postseason run. Simply holding onto Skubal for one last playoff push is perfectly reasonable if the team's chances hover in the 1-in-5 range or better. I'm sure Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris will take heat for holding onto Skubal if the Tigers do miss the playoffs, but I'd have no problem with it.
I don't think there's a scenario where the compensatory draft pick the Tigers would receive is more valuable than the players they'd get from trading for Skubal, in a vacuum. The Tigers are a revenue sharing recipient that will not pay the competitive balance tax this year, and Skubal will almost certainly get more than $50MM in guaranteed money in free agency. That puts the draft pick after the first round next year. I haven't reverse-engineered the 2027 draft too closely yet, but we can safely put that pick in the #29-33 range.
You know I love mini-studies. So I spot-checked the #30 pick for the 20-year period of 2001-2020, adding a few compensatory picks the following year for #30s who didn't sign (like the Dodgers failing to sign J.T. Ginn and drafting Michael Busch 31st in 2019).
I didn't want to get bogged down in control windows, and cutting this off at 2001 does exclude some very good #30s: Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt, as well as David Wells, Jerry Reuss, Travis Fryman, and Brian Jordan. Still, it'd be reasonable to say that the chances the #30 pick amounts to nothing in the Majors might be around two-thirds. Although I will note that if you count Busch, the last few years have provided a relative bounty at this spot, as it also gave us Cole Ragans, Anthony Volpe, and Jordan Westburg.
The Tigers' trade return for Skubal, assuming he returns healthy in June, would come with more certainty and value than a draft pick around #30 would. A multi-player trade package would also diversify Detroit's risk.
What makes this so hard for Harris is that he does not face a simple "#30-ish draft pick vs best possible trade package" choice. That's because the #30-ish draft pick scenario means keeping Skubal for the 2026 season, which adds a big boost to the Tigers' playoff odds. Let's say 25% playoff odds can be boosted to 40% with Skubal. How does that and the draft pick compare to the trade deadline package? This equation becomes much easier for Harris if the Tigers' playoff odds plummet toward 10% by late July.
So, a trade is not certain. A trade is realistic, though, so the Tigers need to be prepared for sell, hold, and possibly even buy scenarios. Would a team give up "top-of-system value" to rent 6-WAR type ace starting pitcher for two months of the regular season plus the playoffs? We can search for precedents, though Skubal's surgery was literally unprecedented, so it won't be perfect.
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Why Can’t The Angels Accept Reality?
We're nearly one third of the way through the 2026 regular season. The Angels have won exactly one third of their games. Despite getting out to a decent start -- the Halos were 11-10 after a win on April 17 -- they're now sitting on a 17-34 record. A resurgent performance from Mike Trout and a breakout from Jose Soriano fueled that early success, but those two alone can't carry the rest of the roster. The Angels have won only six of their past 30 games and just one of their past 10.
The end result doesn't come as a major surprise, although it's nevertheless jarring when any team rattles off a stretch with only six wins in 30 games. Still, the Angels didn't enter the season expected to be contenders. MLBTR readers overwhelmingly voted that their offseason was worthy of a D or F grade. FanGraphs projected what now looks like a charitable 72 wins. PECOTA had them down at 66 wins, which now also looks like it could finish on the high end. My colleague Anthony Franco opened his review of the Halos' offseason by writing that the Angels "did little to improve a 90-loss roster and again enter the season as one of the American League’s worst teams on paper."
It's a familiar refrain. The Angels will extend their playoff drought to 12 years when the current season concludes. They haven't had a winning record since 2015. Owner Arte Moreno has cycled through seven managers since their last winning season. Current skipper Kurt Suzuki is in a virtually unprecedented situation: a rookie manager on a one-year deal. There's a chance that 2027 will bring an eighth manager in 12 years.
To hear Suzuki tell it, the Angels are right on the cusp of turning things around. Sam Blum of The Athletic asked him last week whether he felt this was a cold stretch or reflective of where the Angels are as an organization. Suzuki replied: "I truly do believe that we've hit a cold stretch. Even that being said, there are a lot of games where we're in it. We're one swing away, maybe one pitch away, one out away."
Granted, there's not much Suzuki can say in that situation. It's a perfectly fair question to be asked, but a rookie manager on a one-year contract isn't going to throw the entire organization under the bus. He probably does believe, to an extent, that the players on hand have underperformed, gotten unlucky and that the record could be better. There may even be some truth behind that. The Angels certainly aren't a good team, but a team with Trout, Soriano and Zach Neto probably isn't quite bad enough to be a 54-win team (the Angels' current pace).
That said, the Angels are an unequivocally bad team. The organization has been stuck in neutral for more than a decade. Let's take a look at the current state of the roster, what could be done, and why the Halos are spinning their wheels in perpetuity.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope all is well!
- Looking forward to another of these, let's get going
Drew
- If you’re Andrew Friedman, which of the Dodgers outfield prospects are untouchable and which are in the mix in Skubal trade
Sandy at 90
- I know it is early but assuming that Skubal comes back from surgery and the Tigers fall out of the race, opinion on this deal to Dodgers. Skubal to LA for Zyhir Hope, River Ryan and Kellon Lynsey. Who says no?
Scott Harris
- Should I worry about my job or Hinch's? With the season slipping away, what is the max value Tarik Skubal would bring in a trade, once he's pitched effectively in a regular-season game? With Valdez, Mize, Montero, Anderson and some other starters soon to return, pitching isn't the issue - hitting is. Would a Skubal trade for a controllable OF/3B/1B bat be feasible? Perhaps a three-way for Devers if the Giants turn sellers? That might at lease let us improve offensively to compensate for Skubal's loss. Speaking of offense, Tork has produced very little; Keith has a nice BA but 0HR/6RBI isn't a 1B profile, either. Should Tork head to Toledo and Anderson get a shot? Keith to 1B until a trade brings another bat?
Anthony Franco
- Understandably a handful of Skubal questions. Tigers are going to take this to the wire but obviously the odds of a midseason trade keep going up the more they lose. Four-game sweep at the hands of the biggest threat in the division is brutal
- Don't think any of the Dodgers' prospects should be untouchable for Skubal. Assuming he comes back before the deadline, he's the player who'd most single-handedly improve their World Series odds
- De Paula's the one I'd most want to avoid trading, but if the Tigers were insistent on him as the headliner, I'd have a tough time walking away
- Hope + Ryan feels like a reasonable starting point. If Tigers do trade Skubal, it'd be more multiple young players. They're not going to have any interest in Devers
John B
- When Webb comes off the IL does Mahle get waived? I know it's a chunk of money but he's been awful and McDonald has been their best starter so far.
Anthony Franco
- Can't send McDonald down, I agree. Guessing it's Houser to the bullpen given the amount of money they invested in him and Mahle but those guys have both had brutal starts
- Houser's results have been a little better lately but still about an equal number of walks and strikeouts. It's rough
- I was fully out on Mahle but thought Houser would be better than this, even if I would not have gone to 2/22
- With all due respect to Trevor Story, is his injury an opportunity for the Red Sox to make an improvement to the infield on both sides of the ball?
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MLB Mailbag: Top Prospect Success Rates, Rangers, Buxton, Abrams
This week's mailbag gets into success rates for top-five prospects, the Rangers' woeful offense, Byron Buxton's willingness to accept a trade, and possible CJ Abrams suitors.
Don asks:
Of the Mariners' top drafted-or-or-traded for hitting prospects, three have been outright failures (Dustin Ackley, Jarred Kelenic, Jésus Montero) and only two (A-Rod and Junior) lived up to expectations. Is the M's experience typical of other teams, or do the M's simply have bad vibes?
I guess what I'm asking is what's the success record for, say, the top five prospects each year?
Let's assess the likelihood of success for a Baseball America preseason top five prospect! For this mini-study, I decided to end with the year 2019. That way, we're capturing players who have mostly had their chance to make a Major League impact, particularly within their six-year control period.
There is subjectivity to this process, but a sample of around 50 different players feels appropriate. To reach that total, I had to look at the time period of 2007-19, since many players are ranked top five in multiple years. For what it's worth, Ackley fell outside this sample because he topped out at #11, while Kelenic was omitted because his highest prospect ranking was in 2021 at #4.
Jesus Montero is on here, while Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. are not because I didn't extend the study that far back.
My way of assessing this is to look at the player's FanGraphs WAR for his first six years of team control. Finding that window for each player requires some manual legwork, which is why I didn't make the sample larger. Check out my data here!
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The White Sox’ Infield Is Mashing
The White Sox have been one of the pleasant surprises of the 2026 season. Last night's ninth-inning comeback in Seattle pushed them back to two games above .500 at 25-23. They're not far behind the Guardians in the AL Central and one of only four American League teams (the Rays and Yankees being the others) taking a winning record into Wednesday's games.
It's the best stretch of play by the White Sox since the first half of 2023. They're still not a great team overall, but it's the most exciting time for the fanbase in a while. Almost no one would've picked the White Sox as a live playoff threat after one of the worst three-year stretches in MLB history. Even if getting to October still feels like a long shot, they're putting together a legitimate offense.
The Sox are middle of the pack in scoring but land in the top 10 in both OPS and wRC+. Only the Yankees have hit more home runs than Chicago's 67, which is tied with Atlanta for second. They're sixth in slugging percentage and third in ISO (slugging minus average) after the Yankees and Braves. They've hit at this level despite zero at-bats from catcher Kyle Teel, one of their two best hitters in 2025 who hasn't played this season because of hamstring and knee issues. This is suddenly one of the better power-hitting teams in the league. Most of that comes from an infield that has a claim for best in baseball.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! We'll get going in 90 minutes or so, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time if you prefer. Looking forward to it!
- Happy Monday! Let's get going
Rookie Craze
- AJ Ewing or Henry Bolte? Who's ship are you jumping on? I see Ewing as a higher floor more guarantee to be a major league regular. I see Bolte as having a higher ceiling and more chance at All Star status but more risk of being a flop. Am I right?
Steve Adams
- I think Ewing just has a higher ceiling and floor. Bolte probably has more power and obviously has elite speed, but the hit tool is so shaky. Ewing feels both safer and likelier to become an All-Star
Olereb
- Are the Braves stuck with Jurickson Profar? I mean it does not sound fair, the Braves signed him because they felt he could help them for the next 3 years. He cheated not once but twice, he let them down. In my opinion the Braves should be able to void his contract. There’s nobody that’s going to want him and the circus that’s going to follow him.
Steve Adams
- They're not stuck paying him or anything. He's not taking a roster spot or collecting any salary while he's out with his suspension. He hit when he was healthy last year. I suppose they're stuck with him for 2027.I don't think you'll ever see an agreement that a PED suspension should void a player's contract. There are millions (tens of millions, in some cases) on the line. Imagine if ... I don't know, Anthony Rendon tested positive for PEDs last year and had his contract voided, then accused the Angels of giving him some kind of banned substance. It'd be a fiasco, and it flies in the face of the fully guaranteed contracts for which players have fought. I don't see it.
Carter
- Marlins are gearing towards a disappointing season... do you think they will capitalize on the market and sell off starting pitching? Alcantara can warrant a good return while someone like Meyer can get a better one. Any thoughts?
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