Front Office Originals

Steve Adams

• Greetings! Sorry for the abnormal Thursday FO chat and the suddenness of it. Just being a bit proactive since I may have some conflicts arise tomorrow and I want to be sure I get this week's second FO chat in!This will be in lieu of the standard Friday afternoon chat -- sorry if that causes anyone to miss it, but hey, maybe we get some folks who can't make our usual Mon/Fri ones in here.

  I'll get going at 3pm CT today, but feel free to submit questions in advance, as always. We should be back on our usual Mon/Fri schedule next week.

• Hello!
• Let's get going

Michael

• Why don’t the Yankees or other teams chose not to offer deferred money in contracts?  Sure works for the Dodgers.

Steve Adams

• In short ... they do! I would say the majority of teams throughout the league have leveraged deferrals. Even the Ohtani deal, the most extreme example, was a framework that was amenable to both the Blue Jays and Giants. (Not the Angels, notably)This is largely off the cuff, but here's a quick rundown of some teams' notable deferred contracts over the years...

  Blue Jays (Cease, Santander), D-backs (Burnes, Ketel Marte) Royals (Sal Perez), Mets (Lindor, Devin Williams, Manaea), Reds (Homer Bailey, Nick Castellanos), Nationals (basically like every FA they've ever signed), Orioles (Chris Davis), Brewers (Yelich), Rockies/Cardinals (Arenado), Red Sox (Sale, Devers)

• I'm 100% spacing on plenty of names, but deferrals are extremely common, even if the Yankees haven't gone down that road really.

walterj23

• Cubs are rumored to be in on Gallen . How does he fit in the rotation and is it a smart investment?

Steve Adams

• Not convinced Gallen is enough of an upgrade over their in-house options to justify the price tag. If the Cubs really want another rotation splash, they should just sign Framber Valdez, who fits them better anyhow with that huge ground-ball rate in front of that Chicago infield defense.

Brewers

• We win 97 games, the most in MLB and we trade our ace. How can people say it is the Dodgers are what is wrong with baseball with a straight face.

Anthony Franco

• Hey everyone, hope you had a good weekend! Chat swap this week since Steve wanted off for the holiday, he'll run Friday's instead

Clad in plaid

• Is it possible that Cleveland's lack of free agent activity is because they are concerned about a lockout next spring? And if that is the case, would they keep guys like Bazzana off the 40 man roster this year so they can get another year of development in the minors during a lockout? It seems risky to waste another year of Jose Ramirez. Can they compete for a playoff birth with the current roster?

Anthony Franco

• This is the usual offseason for Cleveland. They're not going to run payrolls that allow them to do much in free agency
• Bazzana should be up pretty early in the year, though I imagine they'd like to get him a little more Triple-A work first (ideally with an early look at Brito there). They're a viable playoff team again for me but that's more about everyone in the AL Central remaining content to be the worst division in baseball for like the 15th straight season

Tough Times In Anaheim

• Jo Adell (2 years of control) and Reid Detmers (3 years of control) for Noah Cameron (5 years of control). Who says no?

Anthony Franco

• This is the rare chat proposal that I think is skewed in favor of the team that you're not a fan of
• I get the logic on both sides but I'd want more than just Cameron in this framework if I were the Angels. He's cheaper but not convinced he's a dramatically better starter than Detmers in 2026

Youkyluptus

• Is the Red Sox rotation top 5 in the sport?  Who’s i n that t ier?

Anthony Franco

• Yeah I'd have them top five, probably top three. Dodgers probably most talented but obviously plenty of injury questions with them. Cincinnati's in there, Pittsburgh's has a crazy high ceiling but it requires a lot of projection on Ashcraft/Chandler to have them in that tier already
• Obviously Seattle would be a pretty popular pick for this and they are very good 1-5, depth behind that just isn't great. Toronto's really well positioned if you assume Bieber's healthy

Dan S.

• Thinking 2/40 or 3/60 with an opt-out for Gallen?

Anthony Franco

• I'd lean two in the mid-40s probably but neither of these outcomes would surprise me
• Assuming you're also putting an opt-out in the 2/40 deal. Can't see him taking a straight two-year contract

What a Mets

• Does it make sense for the Mets to offer Bellinger a Bichette-type deal- substantial overpay, but short commitment? If so, chances he accepts say 3/126 vs 5/160 from Yankees?
• 

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Anthony Franco

• Good afternoon, hope you're all well!
• Interesting week, let's get rolling

LFGM

• Head spinning! Lost Tucker, got Bichette all in the course of a day. I don’t think the Mets should trade Baty, if Bichette opts out after year 1 you have no 3B, so two questions, how do the Mets work out 1B, LF & DH if they keep Baty. Do you think Vientos, or Mauricio have the value combined with lesser prospects to get the SP the Mets need/want? Maybe Freddy Peralta?

Sam

• Brett Baty on the move?

Lance

• Mets have a roster full of middle infielders and at least 1 poor fielding outfielder, how do you see that shaking out?

Anthony Franco

• A handful of the many Mets questions in here
• I don't think Vientos (or certainly not Mauricio) has the juice to headline a Peralta deal, but it does feel to me that he's getting traded. Seems likelier than Baty, who offers more positional value as a capable defender at second/third (and presumably first)
• Seems like the Mets balked at a Vientos/Robert framework at the deadline but I wonder if that's more workable now if Sox eat a chunk of the money or include a reliever other than Grant Taylor in there

Dave

• How much of this "rush" from a few well-funded teams to spend large sums for short-term contracts is because of the expectation that the impending lockout will force a salary cap into place?

Philly A's

• Are the shorter term but higher AVV contracts because of the possible strike?

Anthony Franco

• I don't think that has much to do with it. Just seems like we had a couple huge spenders that didn't want to go long-term on very good but flawed hitters at the top of the class
• Obviously if you're not keen on committing seven or eight years to either of these guys, you need to compensate by juicing the AAV. Mets had a ton of short-term spending room compared to last season and were running out of players on which they could use it after missing on Tucker

Stott Through The Heart And You're To Blame

• Three years for Realmuto means that Dombrowski is planning on retiring after 2 and letting someone else clean up the mess?

Anthony Franco

• Haha if that were the case, why balk at going to three years in November?
• I'm a little surprised they caved but credit to JTR and his camp for waiting it out. Seemed like Bichette was the last other player for which they were prepared to spend and once he chose elsewhere, they said "screw it, let's get Realmuto done"

Justin

• how do the Tucker and Bichette deals impact Cody Bellinger?

Anthony Franco

• Mets could still accommodate Belli, I guess, but that feels less likely now. Beyond that, not sure it matters much. Dodgers never felt likely there and Yankees never seemed to be in on Tucker. My guess is they get the Yankees to cave on the sixth year and wrap it up

Shatkins

• Did aaron judge just become the most underpaid player in the game (besides arb controlled assets)

Anthony Franco

• It's Ohtani for me but Judge is second. That deal felt like a win for the Yanks at the time and obviously looks dramatically better with where salaries at the top of the market have gone since

Soooo

• What’s next for Boston? I feel like they still need a bat, but I hate to see them lose Early or Tolle. Does some combination of Harrison and Crawford (plus others) get them Paredes?
• 

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Steve Adams

• Good afternoon! I'll get going around 3pm CT, give or take a couple minutes.  Feel free to ask questions ahead of time, as always! Looking forward to another chat.
• Hello! Let's get underway!

Rangers13

• With the Soderstrom extension as a comp, what would a Wyatt Langford extension look like?

Steve Adams

• Both 24-year-old OFs with 2+ years of service and four to go until free agency. I would think a Langfor deal looks relatively similar, though I can see his camp pushing for a bit more since he'd likely have had a larger starting point in arbitration; he's been a productive all-around hitter for two seasons now, while Soderstrom took a few to get there and thus had a weaker pre-arb platform. I don't think the gap should be immense, though.

Guards4Life

• Noah Cameron or Cade Horton. Who are you building a rotation around?

Steve Adams

• I suppose it depends on the context of the rest of this mystery new team I'm starting, haha. What's my payroll?! :)I would take Horton over Cameron in a bubble. I think he has a higher ceiling based on the stuff, but Cameron probably has better command and a higher floor. If you told me: "One of these two is going to be a rock solid No. 4 starter for the next four to five years and the other will end up in the bullpen," I would assume it's Cameron the SP and Horton in the 'pen.

  That said, I also think Horton has the better chance at pitching like a true No. 2-3 starter over a longer period. I'd probably go with him, but if you preferred a more certain, bankable source of innings and felt Cameron was the preferable route, it's defensible enough.

Brewers Fan

• Last night Mark said even after the Cabrera and Bregman deals he's not sure he'd pick the Cubs over the Brewers. You agree? Think the brewers need to make a move to keep pace or are okay standing pat?

• Good afternoon everyone, hope you've enjoyed your week! Steve's off today and it's been pretty busy so I'll probably have to keep this one around an hour

Pudge

• What is Detroit thinking?? Vladdy's final year of Arb was 28Mil. 30 is closer than 19.

Anthony Franco

• Covered this in more detail in the Skubal writeup itself but the $19M is way closer to the precedent we've seen for starting pitchers than $32M -- both in terms of max value and raise relative to the previous season
• Skubal's trying to get a $22M raise, which is unheard of in arbitration. I understand why he's trying to do this -- both in terms of wanting to be valued as a top five player in MLB, which he is -- and to break the ceiling that arbitrators have put on starters

ThePhillyPope

• The Phils don't seem to be "in" on any starting pitching this off season. IMO the rotation after Sanchez & Luzardo is very suspect. Nola is average at best, Walker is worse, Painter is unproven, and we have zero idea how/if Wheeler will come back from his surgery. What are your thoughts?

Anthony Franco

• The budget isn't infinite and they were right to make Schwarber the priority. I'd still like to see them add a swingman (or give Keller a rotation opportunity, but it seems they closed the door on that right away) but I'm alright with the rotation for the moment
• If Painter continues to struggle and/or Wheeler comes back shaky, it becomes the priority at the deadline. I think they're talented enough both at the top end and in the lineup that they can give it a few months to see how things shake out

MetsFan

• Has your projection for Kyle Tucker changed since the beginning of the offseason? I know you guys originally predicted 400/11, curious if that's changed since he's still unsigned so close to spring training.

Anthony Franco

• I'd probably drop into the 350-375 range at this point. Tim Dierkes was there the whole time and deferred to Steve, Darragh and myself in agreeing to 400. Still would be surprised if we're looking at three or four with opt-outs though

jrizz1e

• does the diamond sports group news from yesterday put the market on any sort of hold?

Anthony Franco

• Doubt it matters much at the top end since it's mostly mid-market teams that are fighting the TV stuff. Could see it trickling down a little more to the mid-tier guys, though they're the ones who get the hit the hardest for remaining unsigned close to Spring Training anyway
• I wonder a little bit about the Angels though. They feel like they should've been involved on Suárez (Ranger and Geno, really), Gallen, etc. and a dark horse on Belli. This could be Arte Moreno's excuse to do essentially nothing

Kay

• Rob Manfred HAS to know that a free agency deadline is a non-starter, right??

Anthony Franco

• Yeah I can't imagine the PA's agreeing to that. Players resoundingly hate it
• It's just an opportunity for Manfred to frame it publicly as something he wants that'd be exciting for the sport, and I'm sure there are plenty of fans who agree with that, though his primary motivation (which he leaves unsaid) is cost suppression

Brian

• Is bellinger worth 30 million a year?

Anthony Franco

• For the Yankees or Mets on a four-year deal? Sure. For six or seven? Pass

Dana Brown

• Would Abreu and Blubaugh be enough for Cowser from Orioles?
• 

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