Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat, Today 2pm CT
MLBTR's Steve Adams is hosting a live chat today at 2pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
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MLB Mailbag: Hader, Aroldis, Mariners, Rays
This week's mailbag looks at the trade value of Josh Hader and Aroldis Chapman plus other relief targets, Cal Raleigh's struggles and possible Mariners trade options, the Rays' shortstop situation, and much more.
Adam asks:
The Astros are really bad and their season was already in the trash can prior to Correa's injury. He's out for the year and they would be wise to sell everyone who isn't Alvarez. Josh Hader (who is also currently hurt) would have around $46 million and 2.5 years left on his deal if dealt around the deadline. He also has a no trade clause and again, is injured as of right now. Edwin Diaz is the same age as Hader and just signed for 3/67 this offseason and they are very comparable. In theory, if Hader was a free agent this past winter, he likely could have gotten more money than what he had signed for so he has positive value, in theory. If he is open to waving his NTC, what would he fetch at the deadline?
Jeff asks:
I know early season trades are rare, but do you think the Red Sox would be willing to trade Chapman sooner than later? He's having a great start to the season and not a whole lot of games to save in Boston. What do you think the Red Sox would want back?
Mike asks:
Who will be the best closers traded at the deadline?
I decided to lump all my reliever trade questions together.
Hader, 32, made the All-Star team last year but his season ended in mid-August due to a left shoulder capsule strain. As of late November he was expecting a normal spring training, but then biceps inflammation popped up in February. He's on the 60-day IL and is eligible to return to the Astros on May 24th. The lefty has made three scoreless relief appearances so far. We have Statcast data for two of them, and he threw his sinker in the 94-95 mile per hour range. That's not far below the 95.5 he averaged in his excellent '25 season.
At the deadline, Hader will be owed a bit less than $45MM through 2028. And yes, he has a full no-trade clause. So he'll have to be compensated to waive it unless he really just wants out of Houston. Hader is a Maryland native, so it's possible he'd enjoy an East Coast team.
Hader should have more than two months to prove his health pitching for the Astros prior to the August 3rd trade deadline. As a $19MM a year reliever coming off an injury, Hader's trade value may be limited. Throw in his full NTC, and his market will shrink further. He still has elite reliever potential and could be a huge asset in the postseason, but certain contenders may be unable to get involved due to his salary and veto power.
For example, Hader would be a great fit on the Royals or Reds, but those teams would likely balk at his contract even if he'd approve a trade. A big market team would be a cleaner fit. Which big market teams have at least a 40% shot at the playoffs right now? That list includes the Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers. The Yankees and Cubs stand out, with the former possibly holding the East Coast edge.
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Can The Rays Keep This Up?
The regular season has crossed the 25% mark and there's an unexpected team at the top of the American League. The 28-13 Rays have the AL's best record and second-best mark in MLB behind the Braves. The Rays have a history of outperforming expectations, but some of the magic had seemed to wear off with sub-.500 finishes in each of the last two seasons.
Tampa Bay had a slightly busier free agent period than they typically do. They added Nick Martinez and Steven Matz, the latter on a two-year contract. They brought in Cedric Mullins on a reclamation deal. At the same time, they were closer to the "seller" end of their two biggest trades of the winter. They dealt Shane Baz to the Orioles for four prospects and a draft pick. They sent Brandon Lowe, Mason Montgomery and Jake Mangum to the Pirates for two more prospects. Gavin Lux was their most established trade pickup of the offseason, and he has been a complete non-factor due to various injures.
So how have the Rays gotten out to one of the best starts in franchise history? Are they resurrecting a small ball offensive approach in the modern game, and what should be the deadline focus for a team that'll enter the summer more clearly looking to add MLB talent than they have over the past couple seasons?
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope you all enjoyed your weekend!
- Looking forward to another of these, let's get it going
My WS Teams
- Could the Cubbies or Mariners make a big time move for Freddy Peralta seeing that the Mets are out of it? What would it cost?
Coach Wall
- Given their terrible start, is it time for the Mets to deal? Freddy Peralta could bring 2 prospects to replace what they gave up to get him. What say you?
Anthony Franco
- Too early. He'd be the best rental pitcher available at the deadline, the return will still be strong in mid-late July
- They're pretty close to cooked but doubt they're ready to wave the white flag yet and waiting until July just allows potential buyers to have a better feel for whether they're going to be in or out. Cubs will be in Peralta two months from now too
- As for the price, similar to what they gave up is about right. Trade value is down a little bit -- acquiring team now can't make him a QO, half-season instead of full, Tobias Myers (presumably) not included -- but Williams/Sproat wasn't a massive package and some of the drop in trade value is counteracted by teams like the Cubs losing a bunch of starters to injury
Jackalope
- How real is the Riley O'Brien breakout? If the cards fall out of contention, will he be a midsummer trade candidate?
Tony
- It's difficult to see the Cardinals hanging on to the race. What would o'brien bring back at the deadline?
Anthony Franco
- He's cheap, building back-end experience, and has the 99-100 MPH sinker that hitters seem to have a really tough time differentiating from the breaking stuff
- I think he's the second- or third-best reliever in a good bullpen, and he's old enough (31) that it saps some of the value of the five remaining years of club control, but he's a good trade chip
- I'd have him below Jose A. Ferrer (and obviously way below Mason Miller) when they got traded but do think they could pull a couple mid-level prospects for him and should at least be open to the conversation
Another Eric Lauer Question
- Could I be a long shot to be DFA'd today when Yaril Rodriguez is added to the 26?
Anthony Franco
- Nice call to the person who sent this question in at 1:40 this afternoon
Jed's Dead
- Giants looking to unload some salary. I don't think the Cubs make sense for any of their position players, but Robbie Ray would be enticing to me. Even if not for another month or two, what sort of package do you think it would take to acquire him?
busted posey
- I am stuck with 4 unlovable and unmove-able contracts (Devers, Chapman, Adames and Jung Hoo Lee). Luis Arraez and Robbie Ray are potentially trade-able rentals. Could I get back more now vs. at August deadline?
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The Mariners’ Latest Pitching Success Story
For years, the Mariners' largely homegrown rotation has been one of the envies of teams around the league. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryan Woo have all made an All-Star team in the past couple years. All three have a career ERA of 3.61 or better with better-than-average strikeout and walk rates alike. Bryce Miller hasn't had as much success relative to his teammates, but he posted a 3.52 ERA with quality strikeout and walk rates in his first 56 MLB starts before an injury-ruined 2025 season (90 1/3 innings, 5.68 ERA, two IL stints for elbow inflammation).
Veteran righty Luis Castillo wasn't signed and developed by the Mariners, but Seattle pried him from Cincinnati in a 2022 trade for a package headlined by infield prospects Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo. The M's quickly extended Castillo on a five-year, $108MM deal. In parts of five seasons with Seattle, his 3.61 ERA is right in line with the previously mentioned group (and a near-identical match to his 3.62 mark in six seasons with the Reds).
No organization in baseball has had more continuity in its major league rotation than the Mariners since this wave of pitchers arrived on the scene at T-Mobile Park. They've been consistent, productive and, with the exception of Miller's recent injury issues, largely durable. That's been key for the Mariners, because one less-talked-about aspect of their strong rotation is that the depth behind the group hasn't been great.
From 2022-25, the quintet of Gilbert, Kirby, Woo, Miller and Castillo started 75% of the Mariners' games. (Castillo wasn't even acquired until July 29 of the 2022 season.) The Mariners had rotation cameos from Robbie Ray (signed to a five-year deal, missed the second season due to Tommy John surgery, then traded to the Giants), Chris Flexen (26 starts on the back end of his low-cost contract) and Marco Gonzales (a holdover from the prior rotation group who was eventually traded while injured). But for the most part, it's been the same group of five, which has helped to mask the fact that the bulk of their top prospects in recent years have all been position players.
One hopeful addition to the group, for years, was right-hander Emerson Hancock. The No. 6 overall pick in 2020, Hancock was never touted as a future ace. He was an advanced college arm with above-average stuff and good command, one whom Baseball America tabbed as a potential No. 3 starter -- "and perhaps better if he refines his breaking pitches."
Instead, Hancock's development went the other direction. His command worsened. He lost some life on his fastball as he battled shoulder troubles and a lat strain. In general, he became more hittable. Hancock's strikeout rate plummeted when he reached Triple-A in 2024, though he still posted a mid-3.00s ERA. He was north of 5.00 in 2025.
Between some infrequent and inconsistent big league stints from 2023-25, Hancock totaled 162 2/3 innings with a 4.81 ERA, one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball (15.6%) among pitchers with that many innings and a good-not-great walk rate (7.8%). He looked like a fifth or sixth starter -- the type of arm who oscillates in and out of a rotation before possibly settling into a bullpen role or beginning to bounce around the league as a swingman.
There weren't many tangible signs of a breakout last year. Hancock's average fastball climbed to a career-high 94.9 mph, although that was at least moderately skewed by a move to the 'pen later in the season. He sat 94.6 mph as a starter in 2025 -- still up from his previous career-best 93.4 mph -- and 97.2 mph as a reliever. But even with the velo increase, Hancock's swinging-strike rate fell. His opponents' contact rate climbed. His 8.1% walk rate was a career-worst mark. Hancock had the look of a depth starter and was entering his final option year in 2026. The long-term outlook wasn't great.
And then spring training rolled around.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope all is well!
- Looking forward to another of these, let's get it rolling
Fanthony Aranco
- The MLBTR team was (justifiably) incredibly down on STL, how long would this have to continue for you or the rest of the team to believe?
Guest
- If the Cardinals keep playing like they are now, what will they do are the Trade Deadline?
Anthony Franco
- I'll probably dig into this in more detail for the Front Office post next week. I mostly remain skeptical they can keep this up with that rotation. They're again managing to keep them all healthy but this level of pitching to contact on the starting staff just doesn't seem like it's going to work all season
- Can buy this as a slightly above-average offensive team, especially if Nootbaar looks better post-surgeries. Still out on most of the bullpen in front of O'Brien
- They're seven games over and I think they'll probably land around .500 but the NL playoff field is deep enough that they'd still be my pick to finish last in the Central
- Can't see Bloom pushing in prospect value to make any huge deadline splashes but if they're still 5-7 games above .500 in late July, the front office owes it to the team to at least make a moderate buy in the bullpen, maybe add a fourth OF
4 Sale Cheep
- Who are some players we didn't expect to see on the trading block before the season but might end up moving thanks to their team not digging out of their unexpectedly bad start?
Anthony Franco
- Your mileage may vary on whether the Giants were ever going to be good but sure looks like Robbie Ray and Luis Arraez will be out there in July. Mets are running out of time to get things going, so Freddy Peralta could be the top rental available.Sonny Gray would be a pretty big one (albeit with a complicated contract given the big option buyout)
- Taylor Ward could fit here, though Baltimore felt like a longer shot contender to me from the beginning. Still have a tough time seeing Houston completely blow it up but they're down to a year and a half of arb control over Jeremy Peña and he could bring back a Kyle Tucker-like haul if he's healthy
The Legend
- what might a Drake Baldwin extension look like?
Anthony Franco
- https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/04/will-braves-add-drake-baldwin-t...
- Steve thought I was light there for what it's worth. I'm a little more cautious given the market's trepidation on paying catchers and (to a lesser extent) Atlanta's ability to get a lot of guys to sign below what I would have expected on early-career deals
Power Outage
- Brewers have 1 home run from SS, 3B, LF, and CF combined. I know rushing people isn't great but Pratt or Made or even Brock Wilken so someone needs to get a shot here pretty quick right?
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The Dodgers’ Lineup Depth Is Shining
The Dodgers have raced to a 23-14 start that has them narrowly above the Padres in the NL West. They're the two-time defending champions and entered the season as near locks to make the playoffs. Everyone knew they'd be good, but they're thriving right now despite generally underwhelming starts from their biggest bats.
Mookie Betts has been out since April 5 with a right oblique strain. Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker and Will Smith are all hitting below their career levels, largely because of drops in power. Even Shohei Ohtani hasn't made his usual level of offensive impact. He's still getting on base at a huge .389 clip but is on a 26-homer pace after topping 50 in each of his first two seasons with the team. Ohtani's first full season back on the mound has been exceptional -- he was just named the league's Pitcher of the Month for the first time in his career -- but he has yet to fire on all cylinders at the plate.
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MLB Mailbag: Gunnar Henderson, Skubal, Padres
This week's mailbag gets into potential Gunnar Henderson trade timing, the potential of Marlins lefty Braxton Garrett, possible All-Star Game starting pitchers, whether the Tigers might trade injured ace Tarik Skubal, who the Padres might add at the trade deadline, and more.
Drew asks:
Let's play a game, part 1: predict the odds on a Gunnar trade this year, offseason, 2027 pre trade deadline, or not at all. Part 2: What's his actual value in terms of prospect capital given his downturn in performance?
Henderson, 25 in June, is under team control through 2028. This is his first arbitration year, and he's earning $8.5MM. As a Boras client, Henderson isn't seen as a likely extension candidate for the Orioles.
As of Wednesday morning, the 16-20 Orioles have pretty much abandoned their hopes of winning the AL East, but are only one game back for a wild card spot. According to FanGraphs, they have a 31.4% chance of reaching the playoffs this year.
After a 1 for 5 effort against the Marlins on Tuesday, Henderson's wRC+ stands at just 95 through 163 plate appearances. He's shown good power with nine home runs, but is striking out nearly 31% of the time and thus has a .208/.270/.443 line. Henderson's expected batting average is .225, so he's mostly earned his ugly early-season line. In a full season, Henderson has yet to post a wRC+ below last year's 120, and he soared as high as 154 in 2024.
Has Henderson previously posted a .713 OPS over 35 games? Yes - he was notably worse from August 19th through September 27th last year, when he hit .248/.333/.308 (83 wRC+). He also had an early 2023 run of that length with a .684 OPS (.192/.328/.356 for a 94 wRC+). What's happened so far is well within the range of normal variation for Henderson. After that streak ended in '23, he posted a 130 wRC+ the rest of the way.
Henderson has spent ample time at both third base and shortstop in his career, though he's been at short exclusively since his monster '24 season. He's demonstrated roughly average defensive abilities at the position.
The Orioles could reasonably fall out of the playoff race prior to the August 3rd trade deadline. They could trade Henderson for three pennant races, moving on from his final 2 1/3 years of control.
Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias is a pragmatic type, but I expect him to re-load (to a degree) for 2027 and try to win again with Henderson. Henderson projects to be worth 5 WAR this year and is making a fraction of his market value. There's just no good reason to cash him in this summer. I'll put the summer 2026 trade odds at 1%.
As we entertain this hypothetical, it's worth asking who would take over for the Orioles at shortstop. Jeremiah Jackson, getting most of the second base share at present, is one candidate. He was seen as having the athleticism for the position back in his prospect days, before he was traded to the Mets and then later released. Jackson Holliday has five more years of team control remaining and could be a long-term option, though he's been slow to return this year from a broken hamate bone. Jordan Westburg is on the 60-day IL with a partial UCL tear, so he's a major question mark right now. Neither Holliday nor Westburg has played shortstop regularly since 2023.
MLB.com suggests prospect Wehiwa Aloy could stick at shortstop, but he's currently at High-A. Former big leaguer Jose Barrero has been handling shortstop for the Triple-A Norfolk Tides and could be a 2026 stopgap.
Is Holliday the best long-term internal bet to take over at shortstop? He was seen as a plus defensive shortstop coming up, but as a second baseman last year he struggled mightily going to his right and did not demonstrate a strong arm. Holliday has five years of control remaining, but he also has one decent MLB season under his belt and has yet to get going in 2026.
I'm trying to talk myself into the Orioles trading Henderson during the 2026-27 offseason, and I find it to be a major stretch. They just don't have a ready replacement, so trading Henderson would be a huge concession for '27. The Orioles are committed to Pete Alonso and Shane Baz through 2030, the resurgent Adley Rutschman is under control through '27, Westburg through '29, and Holliday through '30. While I don't love that MLB core, pivoting to a reset this winter by trading their best player would be a gut-punch to fans. Throw in a lockout that will likely eat up three-plus months of the offseason, significantly shortening the window to make a franchise-altering trade, and it feels even less likely.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Happy Monday! (Or, happy Bryce Eldridge and/or Joe Mack Day, to those who observe)
- I'll get going in about 90 mins, but feel free to send in some questions ahead of time.
- Greetings. Sorry to be a couple minutes late -- Skubal news dropped out of nowhere.
- Let's get going!
Mike
- With Grichik DFA do you think Jasson Domínguez will stay with the team as their 4th outfielder?
Steve Adams
- It does no good to have Dominguez sitting more often than not. He should be playing every day, whether that's in Triple-A or in the majors. Shrugging and putting him in a bench role would seemingly be acknowledging that they don't think he has an everyday spot down the line.
Tony
- Nolan gorman? Has he showed enough to get another year? Doesn't seem to be anyone pushing him
Steve Adams
- I guess he has the K% down under 30, so that's something. But in general, he's not walking, not hitting the ball all that hard ... This is a guy who's coming up on four years of big league service and he's a below-average hitter still. I just don't see much cause to keep trotting him out there.They may not have a high-end prospect pushing him, but either of Blaze Jordan or Cesar Prieto could get a look at some point. Jordan's probably more of a 1B, but they're still playing him at the hot corner in AAA.Barring a big surge -- for which there's still plenty of time -- I just don't see why you keep running him out there in a regular role beyond the current season.
Guest
- What are the Braves doing with James Karinchek? With all of their bullpen issues, I think he deserves a chance.
Steve Adams
- ERA looks nice, but he's walking 11-12% of his opponents in AAA with a below-average swinging-stirke and chase rate, and he's sitting 92-93 mph with his fastball. He was 97+ when he debuted.I wouldn't have an issue giving him a look, but my expectations would be pretty tepid even if they did. Or probably, more accurately, "when they do." I'd imagine he gets a look at some point in the not too distant future (no inside intel there -- just saying based on his performance, injuries in the 'pen, fact that he still has an option left once he's selected, etc)
Mariners Rotation
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- When Bryce Miller comes back later this month, who is the odd man out of the Mariners rotation or does Miller start in the pen. No way they would move Hancock to the pen, as he has been the Mariners most consistent starter all year, right?
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The Astros’ Ominous Long-Term Outlook
In case you're just tuning into the 2026 season, things aren't going great in Houston. The Astros escaped with a split in a doubleheader with the Orioles yesterday despite allowing a combined 15 runs in those games. They enter play Friday sitting on a 12-20 record. Houston's bullpen has been far and away the worst in baseball, due in no small part to star closer Josh Hader's lengthy stint on the IL to begin the season. Bryan Abreu went from arguably the game's best setup man to a low-leverage middle reliever in short order; his fastball is down more than two miles per hour, and his ERA sits just shy of 13.00. Veterans Enyel De Los Santos and Steven Okert were low-cost pickups last year who played big roles. Both have regressed (and then some) in 2026.
Meanwhile, a rotation that brought in several new arms this winter has only been marginally better. Again, injuries have played a role. Ace Hunter Brown is out with a shoulder strain. Offseason pickup Tatsuya Imai, a star righty in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball, struggled before hitting the IL with arm fatigue. Cristian Javier is sidelined into at least June with his own shoulder strain. Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski are still on the mend from 2025 Tommy John surgery. Neither is expected back before the All-Star break.
The lineup has at least provided good production. Houston hitters are batting .265/.346/.438 as a team. A disproportionate amount of their production has come from slugger Yordan Alvarez, who's decimating opposing pitchers at an MVP-caliber clip, but he's not alone. Christian Walker has more than just righted the ship after an awful start in 2025 -- he's arguably hitting better than he ever has before. Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa have been comfortably better than average at the dish. Isaac Paredes has found his stride after a slow start himself.
Even on this side of the ball, however, the 'Stros have had challenges. Jeremy Peña has been limited to just 10 games thanks to a pair of injuries (broken finger, hamstring strain). Jake Meyers looked solid through a dozen games before an oblique strain sent him to the shelf. The reacquired Joey Loperfido was solid through 20 contests before straining his quad. In recent weeks, Houston has regularly trotted out lineups including players like Braden Shewmake, Daniel Johnson and Dustin Harris, each of whom was acquired simply because the club needed warm bodies and lacked depth.
That's a symptom of a much larger and more concerning trend in Houston -- one that calls into question the club's outlook well beyond the current season.
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