Front Office Originals News & Rumors

Steve Adams

• Good morning! Chatting a bit earlier than usual today, since I need to bring the car in for some work this afternoon. We'll get going at noon CT, but as always, feel free to ask some questions ahead of time if you prefer!
• Good afternoon!
• Let's begin

MarinersMan

• What areas will the Mariners target at the trade deadline, assuming they're performing like people expect them to? SP? RP? Bench depth?

Steve Adams

• Every contending club is in the mix for bullpen help. Seattle's bullpen core -- Munoz, Brash, Speier, Ferrer and to a lesser extent Bazardo -- is great, but they'll still be looking to deepen things. And if either Ferrer or Speier gets hurt, I'm sure they'll specifically target a lefty.I could see a corner OF/DH bat being on the list, as Canzone hasn't hit over a particularly large sample yet and a Raley/Robles platoon isn't exactly a lock to produce.

  Rotation depth behind the top guys isn't great, so I can see a starter on the list if they have some health issues -- though they've obviously been pretty good at keeping Gilbert/Woo/Castillo/Kirby healthy (or at least clear of major season-ending issues)

• Broadly, the Mariners don't have a ton of holes though. Which is why they were I think universally picked by our staff to win the West.

Richard

• Hi Steve, When Joyce and Yates are back in May, who closes for LAA? At the end f the year, who has more saves for the Twins, Rogers or Sands?

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Anthony Franco

• Good afternoon, hope you've all had a good week!
• We've got regular season baseball again, exciting times! Let's get rolling

Mad Max

• Thoughts on Cubs and extensions? Comp to Anthony and Red Sox,what percentage can be applied of regret to Armstrong,Anthony,Merrill in 3 years? Which tema takes a step forward due to locking up young talent versus using up a position and payroll?

Anthony Franco

• I'd order them Anthony, Merrill, PCA on value but I'd happily have done any of them if I were the team. The track record on those extensions for high-end position player prospects who find immediate MLB success is pretty good
• If that guy becomes Ronald Acuña or Corbin Carroll, it's one of the three to five most valuable contracts in the game. Even if they go the Michael Harris II or (worse) Ke'Bryan Hayes path, it's not the end of the world. Risk-reward in these cases almost always points to the team being aggressive if the player is willing to sign early
• Cubs ones are a little weird because they follow a different path than the usual early-career extension. Typically a little shorter commitment that buys out one or two free agent years without attaching club options at the back end.

  They did something similar with Happ and the first Hoerner deal. It reduces the long-term upside a little bit but they seem to prefer keeping the guarantee comparatively low (PCA would've beaten Merrill money if they went longer)

NL MVP candidates

• Did the MLBTR staff have a chuckle that nobody picked anyone other than Ohtani to win his fourth consecutive NL MVP? Granted the NL might be somewhat light on superstars compared to the AL (Judge, Bobby Witt Jr, Cal Raleigh, Julio, etc)... but nobody thought Juan Soto deserved a nod? He's a 40-40 guy now after all

Anthony Franco

• Ha, we did them all individually. I put mine in last before sending them out but deliberately avoiding looking at anyone else's picks when I wrote them all up. After four or five Ohtani picks, I wondered if it'd be unanimous
• He's so clearly the best player in MLB that I think any of us felt like picking someone else would come off as too contrarian, but I would still take the field. Not like it'd be a huge surprise if Soto, Acuña, Carroll, even Tatis jumped in there

Randy, the destroyer

• Who do you think gets squeezed off the Yankees roster when Volpe returns (assuming everyone stays healthy until then)? Their bench is Goldy, Grichuk, backup C Escarra and Rosario. Do they just drop Grichuk at that point?

Anthony Franco

• They're probably assuming someone's hurt in between (Stanton most likely), but if they avoid any injuries, I'd guess Rosario's the odd man out. Feels a little redundant if you're also carrying Caballero on the bench
• Could also option Volpe if Caballero and all the bench guys are performing. Doubt that's the plan right now but it would preserve all the roster depth and if Volpe looks shaky on the rehab assignment, wouldn't be that hard to justify

To ATL

• I'm a big fan of Ozzie Albies the person, but is he on a short leash if his bat doesn't come to life? .548 OPS in Spring Training, yikes.

Anthony Franco

• Eh I just don't think the Braves believe in Nacho Alvarez at all and I have tough time seeing the argument that even a diminished version of Albies is worse than Jorge Mateo or Kyle Farmer
• The first $7M option was a no-brainer because he played well in the second half and there was the relatively big buyout ($4M). That's not the case for the upcoming option, so I wouldn't be surprised if they move on at the end of the year. Could curtail his playing time once HSK comes back by using Dubón at second, but I don't think Ozzie's getting pushed off the roster in-season

Joe Ryan

• I'm guessing I'm gone shortly after the break. Or are ownership and the FO too directionless to move anyone at the deadline, just like they fumbled the winter?

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Steve Adams

• Hello! We'll get underway at 2pm CT, but feel free to ask some questions in advance
• Let's begin!

Still an A

• With Didier Fuentes superior numbers to everyone he was battling 5th spot for, why is he still staying in the bullpen with Strider now on the IL?

Steve Adams

• Fuentes only threw 70 total innings last year between the majors and minors combined. I imagine he'll be in a multi-inning role in the 'pen early on. Given the injury risk associated with basically every starter in Atlanta, I would expect he'll get ample opportunity to start some games this year, probably with a pretty regular cap of five to six innings to keep his overall workload down.Whatever shape the Atlanta rotation takes on Opening Day is going to be more temporary than that of the average club.

Ditto

• Thanks for taking my question - does McGonigle make the Tigers? If so, what does a reasonable season stat wise look like? Same for J Lawlar, feels like he’s been around forever, but what is the stats look like there?

Cat_Herder

• Tigers start on Thursday.  What are the chances we find out McGonigle's next playing location before then?  They can't really send him to Toledo, can they?

Steve Adams

• I'd be extremely surprised if the Tigers sent McGonigle down -- far more so than I was with the Pirates sending Griffin down. McGonigle has been so impressive this spring, and they have no other shortstop options who inspire real confidence. Early in camp, I thought it felt like a longer shot, but as the spring has progressed it's felt increasingly likely and now feels borderline inevitable.
• Steamer and ZiPS have McGonigle hitting .255ish with a .330-.340 OBP and a slugging in the .415 to .440 range. I'll take the over across the board, but I understand that projection systems inherently just aren't going to forecast monster numbers for a 21-year-old who hasn't even played in AAA.I'm taking the significant over on Jordan Lawlar's projections (.235ish, .300ish, .370ish). I think he's going to hit for plenty of power. There'll probably be plenty of strikeouts, so the .235 to .240 average seems fair, but he's walked too much in the minors and has so much raw power. He's been really disciplined this spring, small sample notwithstanding. An OBP in the .330 range and a mid-.400s slugging with real 20-20 upside feels plausible.

  No clue how the OF defense is going to look haha, but I think he'll hit.

buhlake

• With Joc Pederson’s struggles at the plate and in the field (specifically at first base), what do the Rangers do with him if the struggles translate into the regular season too?

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Anthony Franco

• Good afternoon, hope all is well!
• News is starting to pick up and we're a little behind schedule to finish the Offseason Review Series before Thursday, so I'll have to keep this one around an hour
• Let's get it going

Save harry the K’s

• Justin Crawford hasn’t exactly hit the cover off the ball this spring. What are the chances we see more Marsh in CF and Kemp/someone else in left if that continues?

Anthony Franco

• I assume Crawford's got at least two months as an everyday player before the Phillies go there. Marsh is a little stretched in center, they don't have any great alternatives in left, and Crawford doesn't get much out of going back to Triple-A
• Can argue they should've been more aggressive in shoring up the outfield depth but they weren't, and it some point, they do need to give Crawford to work through things at the MLB level

Gavin

• Preller has to trade for a starter right?  Or is content riding the elite bullpen til Musgrove and Canning are ready?
• 

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Steve Adams

• Good afternoon! Hope the weekend treated everyone well. I'll get started at about 2pm CT (give or take a minute or two), but feel free to start asking questions in advance, as always.
• Greetings! Let's begin

cambo

• How do you see the Rockies 1st base gig shaping up all season?

Steve Adams

• I assume you're going to see at least four guys with 20+ starts there: Edouard Julien, Troy Johnston, Blaine Crim and TJ Rumfield. Charlie Condon could be an option later in the year, too. I'll go with Julien as the 1B leader among the guys listed here, with Rumfield in second. Julien can't be optioned and is a poor 2B defender, so I think they'll just stick him at 1B if he hits at all.

Bill G

• Prediction Time:  Why is it easier to predict who will come in last in each division than it is those who will come in first?

Steve Adams

• A bad team is only going to get worse due to injuries. Tougher to tell which good team(s) are going to fall victim to that randomness. Plus, most truly bad/last-place teams don't have a lot of depth or good farm systems on which to draw (which is part of why they're predicted last in the first place).

Stealing Home

• I've been listening to fantasy podcasts and one thing I don't understand is the love for Cory Seager and the fear for Trevor Story.  Can you explain this?  CBS actually went as far as to say even if you only get 3/4 of a season out of Seager it's better than most SS behind him over a full season, where Story landed on their dud list.  I know both have great talent, roughly the same age and have been injury prone in their careers, but are they forgetting the great fantasy season Story had?  Very similar to Lindor but he's being drafted 10 rounds later.  To be fair Seager is being drafted around where Story is.  If I knew both would stay healthy, I would be hard pressed to pick one over the other.

Steve Adams

• Story's season last year was both the first time he's taken 400 plate appearances AND the first time he's reached 20 HR or 20 SB since 2021. Last year feels like a ceiling year for Story, who's 33 years old and has the type of K-BB profile that's inherently going to leave him with a much lower floor than someone like Seager.Seager has his own durability concerns, but he's a perennial monster in the batter's box. He strikes out way less, walks way more, hits the ball harder and generally does everything better than Story. He's more than a year younger, too.
• The only way I'd ever take Story over Seager would be if you told me Seager was only going to play 70 games and Story would play 150. Even then, I'd be tempted to take Seager and just piece SS together (or fiendishly use that crystal ball outlook to trade him after 67 games, haha)

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Anthony Franco

• Good afternoon, hope you've all enjoyed your week!
• Less than two weeks from Opening Day! Let's get rolling

Fake Jim Bouton

• Seem to me the Yankees should start the season with Carlos Lagrange in the bullpen - why waste those bullets in the minors?  Any reason not to?

Anthony Franco

• I assume they'll start him in Triple-A to try to keep open the long-term possibility that he can start but given how far the control would need to come, I'd be pretty tempted to just throw him in the MLB bullpen as well
• Some of it comes down to how you feel about Cade Winquest, I guess. Tough to carry both of those guys in lower-leverage roles, at least to start the season. Obviously Winquest would need to be offered back to St. Louis if they don't hold him, whereas Lagrange could open in the minors without occupying a 40-man spot and buy them a little more time on the Rule 5 decision

Lysol

• Do you think Casas will be productive for the sox in 2026? Or with Contreras do you think they will trade him?

Anthony Franco

• I feel like a deadline trade is ideal for everyone, needs to get healthy first before that's really an option. Nationals fit is easy with the Toboni connection but also the most sensible one since they've got nothing at first base and plenty of runway

Ben Cherrington

• Glad Tim was able to exonerate me in my inability to decision not to trade for a 3B in this week’s mailbag!

Anthony Franco

• Haha here's Tim's much lengthier breakdown on Pittsburgh's third base situation that this question is referencing
• https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/03/mlb-mailbag-pirates-shortstops-...
• I don't entirely agree with him -- would consider Abrams a pretty clear upgrade over Triolo, for instance -- but I'm also generally alright with them using Triolo as a low-end regular for a while given how many other moves they made offensively
• Will say that if the cost on Donovan was something like Barco, Termarr and Triolo (which Tim loosely floated as a comp to the package they got back from Seattle, not saying St. Louis definitely would've done it), I'd have easily jumped on that if I were the Bucs

Black and Gold

• With the Pirates starting 4 pretty much set in clay. (Skenes, Kellar, Chandler, Ashcraft) Who is the front runner for the 5th spot?

Anthony Franco

• Urquidy needs to be on the MLB roster so I imagine he's pretty well locked in there, at least for a few starts
• If he's carrying a 7.00 ERA with a bunch of homers in the middle of May, they can pull the plug and go to Barco or Harrington

Idiotic Failson

• Any chance we see a breakout from Masyn Wynn this year? He's gotten some games under his belt and used to have a 60 hit tool projection

Anthony Franco

• He's not far off being a 60 bat if you view the hit tool as putting the ball in play and hitting for average. Bigger issue is that it's not all that valuable (at least offensively) when it comes with minimal walks or power
• I do think there's a little more in there than he's shown though. He should be getting to double digit home run totals with 30 doubles annually. Approach is good enough that I'll take the over on his career 6.5% walk rate moving forward. Could see his 2024 numbers being the baseline into his mid-late 20s, which is a really good player when you're a top three defensive shortstop
• Also think some of the slugging can play up just from him being more aggressive when he's fully past the knee issue. He didn't hit any triples last year, which I have to imagine is driven largely by playing through a meniscus injury given the athlete he is. Turning a handful of doubles into triples over the course of the season can juice the slug by a few points without any change in the batter's box

Guest

• Is it my imagination or is Detroit stashing shortstops? 6 of their top 30 players are  shortstops starting with McGonigle. I understand that if you play short you’re probably athletic enough to play elsewhere. Can’t play them all at short so do they trade some for pitching?

Still an A

• Does Kevin McGonigle make the Tigers opening day roster?
• 

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