Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! Hope you're all enjoying some spring and/or WBC games today. (I've got Panama/Cuba on at the moment!)We'll get started around 2pm CT, but feel free to start asking questions ahead of time, as always.
- Let's get underway!
Giolito
- Why isn't Giolito signed? Surely there's a place in the Athletics, Braves, Phillies, Padres or Astros rotations.
Stevie M
- Does Minnesota have a plan at all? The team doesn't strike fear in me. With Pablo out, should they sign Giolito? He's familiar with the Central. I don't know how effective he is anymore, but it's a thought.
Steve Adams
- I imagine Giolito went into the offseason looking for the kind of multi-year deal he might've been in line for were it not for that season-ending elbow scare, and it just wasn't there. Most clubs are probably looking at him as a one-year guy now, since the majority of offseason budgets have been spent.Especially with Profar's money being freed up, I'm surprised Atlanta hasn't signed him. He's a clear upgrade over the guys duking it out for the fifth spot (Joey Wentz, Bryce Elder, Jose Suarez), and the rest of the Braves' rotation is wrought with injury risk.
- All of that applies to Zack Littell, too.
- (Well, not the part about the elbow scare)
- Twins, too, make an easy and obvious fit for either Giolito or Littell. They've lost Lopez. Festa's shoulder is flaring up. Ryan already had a minor back thing. And the Pohlad du jour there, Tom, has spoken openly about wanting to be aggressive since stepping into the executive chair position
- With the other teams listed for Gio... he probably doesn't want a short-term deal to pitch in a hitter-friendly minor league park (A's), and he'd cost the Phillies more than double because of the luxury tax. Padres don't seem to have any money left (hence the cheap nature of all their late signings).Astros, I just disagree that they need him. Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows ... that's a pretty decent top four, and they have Ryan Weiss, Lance McCullers, Spencer Arrighetti, AJ Blubaugh, Colton Gordon and Miguel Ullola as options at the back of the rotation. Their owner, Jim Crane, also doesn't want to pay the luxury tax -- and they're about $10MM shy of it right now.
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Where Can The Orioles Find A Ryan Mountcastle Trade?
The Orioles' decision to tender Ryan Mountcastle an arbitration contract was surprising in November. The already odd fit became all the more so when the O's signed Pete Alonso to a five-year deal at the Winter Meetings. Mountcastle hasn't had a real path to playing time since that signing, yet he remains on Baltimore's roster.
An initial out would have been for the O's to proceed to an arbitration hearing, then release Mountcastle during Spring Training. Arbitration salaries that are determined at a hearing aren't fully guaranteed until Opening Day (whether the player wins or loses). Teams can release those players during Spring Training for 30 or 45 days termination pay, depending on when they make that move.
It wouldn't have been an ideal sequence to drop Mountcastle for a little over $1MM, but that situation isn't without precedent. The Giants' decision to release J.D. Davis in Spring Training two years ago was motivated by the Matt Chapman signing, which didn't take place until after they'd tendered Davis an arbitration contract.
It appears that Mountcastle's camp learned from the Davis situation. Arbitration hearing salaries aren't fully guaranteed during the spring, but settlements are locked in at the time of signing. Mountcastle and the Orioles reached a settlement in the middle of January on a $6.787MM deal for 2026, with a $7.5MM club option for the '27 season. Mountcastle's '26 salary is an exact match for what he earned last year.
That's a savvy move by his representatives, who were clearly aware of the termination pay possibility. Arbitration salaries essentially never decrease year over year, so the $6.787MM number would have been the floor had he gone to a hearing, but it wouldn't have been locked in until Opening Day. By settling, he ensured that money is fully guaranteed. In exchange, the Orioles picked up the club option that gives them control over a potential free agent year. They did something similar with Ryan O'Hearn a couple seasons ago and were rewarded when O'Hearn played well enough to make an $8MM club option an absolute bargain.
None of that addresses the roster glut, though. It's frankly difficult to see a path in which Mountcastle is a near-$7MM value to the Orioles in either of the next two years. Alonso basically never takes a day off, so Mountcastle is not going to get first base reps unless the Polar Bear gets injured. They're likely to divide most of the DH playing time between their two catchers and/or Tyler O'Neill.
Holding Mountcastle as a bench bat isn't ideal for anyone. It's a roster spot they'd probably rather use on a utility infielder. They'd be better off clearing the salary and leveraging it into more payroll flexibility at the deadline. The player is entering a potential walk year and should welcome an opportunity to get more at-bats than will be on the table in Baltimore.
That all makes it unsurprising that Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported in mid-February that the O's were still open to trades involving Mountcastle and Coby Mayo. There's less urgency to trade the latter, who can fill in at third base with Jordan Westburg facing an uncertain timeline due to an elbow ligament injury. Mayo also has a minor league option remaining and could be sent to Triple-A if the infield gets too cluttered. The O's don't have that luxury with Mountcastle.
Most of the trade activity is behind us, but we may yet see one or two deals involving notable players before Opening Day. Mountcastle is among the more accomplished players known to be available. He's coming off a poor season in which he hit .250/.286/.367 while missing two months with a hamstring strain. He was a slightly above-average hitter in each of his first four and a half seasons in the big leagues. Mountcastle has never been a star, but he's usually reliable for 1-2 wins above replacement. He's a career .263/.312/.438 hitter in nearly 2700 trips to the plate.
Which teams might still be in touch with O's president of baseball operations Mike Elias?
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How Could The Braves Pivot Following Another Profar Suspension?
The Braves opened camp in 2026 hoping for a full season from outfielder/designated hitter Jurickson Profar. He'd missed 80 games in 2025 following a PED suspension but was productive upon returning. With designated hitter Marcell Ozuna out the door, Profar and newly signed outfielder Mike Yastrzemski had plenty of runway to frequent playing time.
Of course, we now know that Profar isn't likely to play a single game in 2026. He's staring down yet another PED-related suspension, and the punishment for second-time offenders jumps from 80 games to 162 games. Profar and the MLBPA appear intent on appealing the ban, but there's no precedent for a suspension being completely overturned.
At best, Profar can probably hope for a slight reduction, and even instances like that are rare. Right-hander Michael Pineda saw a 2019 suspension reduced from 80 to 60 games, but only after providing sufficient evidence that the banned diuretic he took was not used as a masking agent for PEDs. Profar didn't test positive for a masking agent but rather exogenous testosterone.
Assuming Profar's season-long ban is upheld, Atlanta will have some decisions to make. The Braves are already down their shortstop and two rotation arms this spring. Ha-Seong Kim required surgery to repair a tendon in his hand after slipping on some ice in the offseason. Righties Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep both underwent elbow surgery to remove loose bodies and/or bone spurs.
The Braves are now also without Profar, who'd been in line for regular at-bats and was hoping to build off the sound .248/.358/.446 batting line (126 wRC+) he logged in 355 plate appearances upon returning from last year's suspension. The veteran switch-hitter walked at a huge 13.2% clip and only struck out in 15.8% of his plate appearances. He connected on 14 home runs, 16 doubles and a triple while contributing nine steals (in 11 tries) on the bases.
Losing Schwellenbach, Profar, Kim and Waldrep before the halfway point in spring training is a rough way to begin the season for an Atlanta club hoping for better health than in an injury-decimated 2025 campaign. If there's a silver lining for Braves fans, however, it's that Profar's suspension sends him to the restricted list and mandates that he will not be paid his $15MM salary. The Braves are not only off the hook for that $15MM -- they're also spared $3MM of associated luxury taxes they'd have paid to the league.
There's obviously no guarantee that Atlanta reinvests the full freight of the money they're now spared. The Braves could opt to lean on in-house solutions to plug their newfound roster gaps, then readdress when the trade deadline rolls around. That's a defensible strategy, though the counterpoint would be that spending some of those funds on immediate additions would bolster the team's chances of making it to late July as a contender.
Much of free agency and the trade market has been picked over, but there are some options for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos to explore with his unexpected $15MM of payroll flexibility late in the winter. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes more briefly touched on this topic in yesterday's mailbag, but let's take a look at some more possibilities.
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MLB Mailbag: Braves, Profar, White Sox, Mariners
This week's mailbag gets into Jurickson Profar's PED suspension and how the Braves might compensate for it, a potential embarrassment of infield riches for the White Sox, the Mariners' rotation depth, and much more.
Jeff asks:
Where do the go after the Profar suspension news? Who is available and what will the trade price be?
Morris asks:
Thank you again for doing a reader mailbag. I wish my question was coming under better circumstances. Let's get the Braves' elephant out of the way: Jurickson Profar.
We don't need to get into the weeds about the suspension. I'm choosing to be an optimist here, so, I'm going to be polite and talk around the situation. I see this development as lineup flexibility. The Yaz signing looks great, and I think Eli White as the primary bench and LHH platoon-bat is not as bad as some might worry.
But it's also payroll flexibility. We just "saved" $18M in commitments and taxes for this season. How should AA allocate that money? Could we get Giolito or Littell for something around 1-year and $10M? Or is that money now dry powder for a possible trade?
Lastly, should we cut Profar this coming offseason? I'm assuming he's probably done in MLB after this, but I know he'd still be owed for the 2027 part of his deal, but, if I'm AA, I'd happily eat that money to have an opening for a dependable guy who won't present this sort of clubhouse issue.
I remember finding the Braves' signing of Mike Yastrzemski a bit superfluous when it occurred in December, but the move is looking wise given Profar's suspension. Yaz's projected platoon partner looks to be Eli White.
White spent all of 2025 in the Majors, winning a utility role with the Braves out of camp. The 31-year-old tallied 271 plate appearances, getting regular duty for about a month until Ronald Acuña Jr. returned from the IL. About 35% of those PA came against lefties, against whom White managed a league average 100 wRC+ even accounting for five homers against lefties Brent Suter, Jeffrey Springs, Shota Imanaga, Colton Gordon, and Jose A. Ferrer in those 96 PA.
White logged more time in the minors in 2023 and '24. Baseball-Reference has unfortunately decided to stop providing minor league splits, so I can only tell you how White hit against lefties across all levels combined. He managed a .281/.337/.494 line against southpaws in 98 PA in 2024, and .258/.365/.581 in 74 PA in '23. So there's a little bit of data suggesting White can maybe be a decent short side platoon partner for Yastrzemski. How about outside options?
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good evening, hope you all enjoyed your weekend!
- Steve needed today off so we're flipping chat schedules this week. He'll run one on Friday afternoon, going to keep this one around an hour
Red Wright Hand
- 4/112 million for Freddy Peralta to sign extension with Mets. You think that gets the deal done?
Anthony Franco
- $28M AAV seems reasonable but I think it's a year light. Have a tough time seeing why he's taking less than Ranger Suarez money without at least seeing what's out there
- If he has another season like 2025, I assume he's getting six years and north of $200M
Youk
- Do you think it’s the right move for the Sox to trade an OF? I’d love to lengthen the lineup with an infielder but it’s really hard to find a fair matchup and I would hate to lose any of the four.
Anthony Franco
- Nah I think they're fine with Durbin and giving Mayer some leeway. I'd keep all four
LeagueWide
- Any predictions for a late offseason trade before Opening Day? The FA market is pretty barren, so teams looking for an impact arm or bat don't have many options left.
Anthony Franco
- Hope I'm wrong but I'm not really seeing anything big at this point. Most teams are at least saying they want to compete this year and as you mentioned, there's no real opportunity to backfill in free agency if you're trading away an impact player
- Feels like a Paredes deal before Opening Day is viable but a long shot. If that doesn't happen, it's probably mostly tinkering at the back of rosters for the next couple months
Giant Hopes
- The Giants have a glut of outfielders. The Royals need outfielders. Is there a match there?
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6 Teams Dealing With Option Crunches
Spring training is in full swing, and various non-roster veterans and top prospects jostling for space on major league rosters. MLBTR's Anthony Franco took a look yesterday at some players who are out of minor league options and could find themselves squeezed off their current roster, depending on spring plays out.
There's another angle with which one can view minor league options, of course: the team side of things. Clubs generally try to avoid stacking too many veteran players who either lack minor league options or have the five-plus years of service needed in order to have say over a potential optional assignment to the minors. Having too many players who can't be optioned can set a club back when there's a player or two who needs a couple days off but does not need a full IL stint.
It's also common in today's game for clubs to aggressively shuffle their bullpens over the course of a season, too; a lack of optionable players can create a headache for clubs after a blowout or marathon extra-inning game that taxes the majority of the pitching staff. Being able to summon a fresh arm or two from Triple-A without needing to pass someone else through waivers is crucial to preserving depth and keeping a team's best arms healthy.
Most clubs have plenty of flexibility when it comes to these situations, but that's not universally true. Around 20% of the league has a very limited number of players who can be sent down without needing to clear waivers, and that could lead to some tough decisions for those clubs as Opening Day draws near. Let's take a run through some of the game's least-flexible rosters and see what sort of decisions they'll be facing as the spring winds down.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon everyone, hope all is well!
- Kind of a boring week in terms of baseball news but hey, we're closing in on meaningful games! Let's discuss
donaldmac3@comcast.net
- What is the first thing the Chisox should do to get back to their winning ways, and I know better pitching is essential. I was born in Chicago nearly 80 years ago, and I have followed the Sox my entire life. Baseball is the best game.
Anthony Franco
- Agreed, pitching's the big hangup here. I still think this is a below-average position player group in 2026 but you can see it coming together with Teel, Montgomery, Quero, the upside play on Murakami, potential solid role players in Meidroth/Acuña
- Pitching's still pretty far behind. I like the Newcomb/Kay fliers well enough to raise the floor, buy Shane Smith as a league average starter. It's a low-upside pitching staff for now, though
- Biggest factor long term is whether one of Schultz and Smith dials in the strikes enough to be a top-of-the-rotation arm. They're eventually going to need to add a stable #2/3 type via free agency or trade, but it's not the time yet to push in for that
LFGM
- Last season the MLBTR team was on point about the Mets biggest issue being SP, as that ended up being their downfall, even if the first two months of the year it looked like a miss, what do you guys think this year’s team biggest weakness is?
Anthony Franco
- I think they're pretty well balanced this year, nothing concerns me quite as much as the lack of high-end starting pitching did at this time last season.
If there is some kind of fatal flaw that tanks the season, it'd probably be the bullpen? It's a solid group but the late innings are heavily reliant on rebounds from Williams/Weaver and if those don't happen, they'd be in some trouble
- Right there with the Phillies as the top teams in the NL East for me though. Not sure if others on the MLBTR staff are a little lower on them
Brewers Fan
- Is there a rhyme or reason to when each teams off-season review comes out? To you wait on ones that you think may still make moves? Or is it just random draw?
Anthony Franco
- Mostly random. We do try to start with the teams that we feel are less likely to make a significant move between when we publish it and Opening Day
- We're basically down to Giolito and Littell as the remaining free agents who'd get more than a cursory mention in an OiR anyway, so it's not as big a deal this year. Was more of a consideration during the "Boras Four" year or certainly the lockout one when we had to drag the series well into the regular season
- There's also just a logistical thing where Mark Polishuk takes around six of these every year and Tim Dierkes usually does the Chicago teams. Neither of them are full-time MLBTR employees -- the site is obviously Tim's focus but he's often tied up with behind the scenes stuff with the developers, web features, etc. -- so the teams that they claim are subject to their other scheduling stuff in a way that mine, Darragh's and Steve's are not
Steve
- If Endy Rodriguez keeps up a good pace this spring, do you see the Pirates keeping him on the roster as a DH/Backup C&1B, or is the roster constructed in a way that blocks him completely?
Anthony Franco
- Certainly don't think he's blocked. Bart's out of options but Davis and Rafael Flores can both be sent down, so they could roll with Endy as the backup catcher and keep the latter two in Triple-A
- Given how little Endy has played the last two years, my guess is they roll with Davis/Bart and start Rodríguez in Indy, but it's not like Davis has done enough at the major league level that he needs to be on the active roster
Connor with a K
- Given Bob Nutting's historical aversion to giving up control/arn years of young talented players (e.g. Skenes, Chandler), do you think it's realistic that Konnor Griffin actually makes the Opening Day roster even if he has a monster spring?
Bounty
- What do you think the over/under on Konnor Griffin breaking camp with the big club? I really need him to go to the minors so I can select him with the first overall pick in our taxi portion of the roto auction league I'm in.
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Out Of Options Players To Watch This Spring
The final few days of Spring Training always come with a significant amount of roster shuffling. Prospects play their way onto the team. Veterans on minor league deals trigger opt-out or upward mobility clauses that force teams to decide whether to select their contracts or let them go. Each of those unexpected promotions costs someone else an active roster spot.
For players who still have minor league options remaining, that's less likely to spur roster movement. They can be sent down without going on waivers, so they'll only be designated for assignment if they're the final player on the 40-man roster. Teams face a tougher call when deciding on a fringe player who is out of options. Do they shoehorn them onto the bench or in a low-leverage relief role? If not, there's a decent chance they're losing that player via waivers or a trade for a minimal return.
We've already seen a number of players whose out-of-options status has pushed them around the league. Although it's not technically an offseason consideration, an out-of-options player is more likely to be DFA over the winter if the team thinks they'll inevitably be squeezed off the roster at the end of Spring Training.
Jack Suwinski, Vidal Brujan, Ben Rortvedt, Andy Ibáñez and Marco Luciano are among the players who have changed teams at least once (often multiple times) because of their out-of-options status. The Yankees finally succeeded in getting Luciano through waivers unclaimed. The other four players remain on their clubs' respective 40-man rosters, though with the possible exception of Ibáñez, they're all facing uphill paths to avoiding another DFA a month from now.
We'll run through a few more who could be playing for their jobs this spring. This isn't our annual exhaustive list of every out-of-options player on a 40-man roster. That'll also be published soon and will include a number of names (e.g. Edward Cabrera, Jo Adell) who obviously aren't getting cut. This exercise will set aside any players like those aforementioned who have already changed teams this offseason and plenty more who seem most likely to clear waivers and remain with their current clubs in a non-roster capacity.
- Luis Matos/Jerar Encarnacion (Giants)
The Giants are unlikely to have room on the roster for Matos and Encarnacion. There's a decent chance they both end up squeezed off the roster. They're each right-handed bats with limited defensive value. Matos has played some center field but should be limited to the corners. Encarnacion is a corner outfielder/first baseman.
Matos has the better shot of the two to win a bench job. He's four years younger and not too far removed from being one of the organization's better prospects. Matos has had flashes of capable offense built around his plus bat-to-ball skills, but an aggressive approach has limited his consistency. The 24-year-old owns a .231/.281/.369 batting line with 15 home runs across 593 MLB plate appearances over the past three years. He's a .287/.345/.505 hitter at the Triple-A level.
Encarnacion hasn't produced much in 54 big league games over the past two seasons. His '25 campaign was repeatedly interrupted by injuries. Encarnacion has mashed in Triple-A when healthy and has obvious power upside in a 6'4", 260 pound frame.
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MLB Mailbag: Giolito, Littell, Kopech, White Sox, Mets
This week's mailbag gets into the lingering free agencies of Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell, and Michael Kopech, multiple White Sox questions, a look at the Mets' rotation, and much more.
Marshal asks:
Why do we think Giolito and Littell have yet to sign? Most other FA left have large red flags either in past performance or injuries. These two are a clear cut above the rest (with the exception of Scherzer who reportedly is being picky about which team). Is it that they are being picky about what team, or are they holding out for bigger money? Teams like the Braves, Angels, A's and more could easily fit these guys into the middle/back of their rotation and yet they all seem unwilling to make a move for these two. Is it related to the TV deals collapsing?
Generally when a pitcher is unsigned this late in the offseason, there's a likely mismatch between their expectations and reality.
In terms of late-signing quality free agent pitchers who did not receive a qualifying offer, one recent example was Jordan Montgomery. He went out looking for over $100MM, and wound up signing a one-year deal (with a vesting option) on March 26th of 2024.
A more distant but also more comparable example was Jake Odorizzi. He'd accepted a qualifying offer for 2020, but wound up pitching only 13 2/3 innings for the Twins due to injuries and the shortened season. We pegged him for three years and $39MM nonetheless, and it was later revealed his asking price was indeed in that range. Amid a pandemic, Odorizzi wasn't able to find that, and instead settled for a $23.5MM guarantee from the Astros on March 8th.
We projected two years and $32MM for Giolito back on November 6th. When I was making my own projection in October, I went with three years and $51MM, but didn't mind bringing that down given the uncertain status of his elbow. That injury ended Giolito's season on September 23rd; he wasn't able to make it back for the postseason. The righty professed full health in November. So why is he still unsigned?
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! We'll get going at 2pm CT today. Feel free to submit questions ahead of time, and we'll get going in a bit less than two hours!
- Hello! Let's get underway
Sam
- It seems like consensus that STL is taking a step back, which I why I am picking them for this exercise. If they played in the AL Central instead of the NL would the be competitive?
Steve Adams
- No, I don't think the AL Central is that bad. They'd be in better shape than in the NL Central, but the Tigers would still be heavy favorites and I wouldn't say the Cards are better than Kansas City or Cleveland.In general, I think their pitching is going to struggle, and while they have a lot of very good defenders on that roster, they're also going to be giving regular reps to guys who can only be considered defensive negatives (Walker, Gorman, Herrera).Bullpen is very suspect, too -- especially if they still trade Romero before Opening Day, which is possible.
Zack Littell
- I've been an above-average starter for two years now. Are teams really that scared to give me a deal along the lines of 2 years/25 million? I think at this point, I'd take that.
Steve Adams
- I would be shocked if he gets 2/25 at this point.
- That's about what I would've thought he'd get back in November/December
- At this point, I imagine he's going to take a year in the $8-12MM range?
Coach Chad
- Who do you think the biggest surprise that has had to take a minor league deal so far? And one that will have to get in camp ?
Steve Adams
- Probably Walker Buehler? Which is maybe contradictory, since I wouldn't have guaranteed him a 40-man spot on my fake team, haha, but I thought someone would just based on the name value -- even if it was a $5MM or so guarantee.Mildly surprised that Rhys Hoskins had to take one, but he hasn't been the same since the ACL tear, and the market pretty regularly craps on defensively limited corner bats like this, so that one's not as much of a surprise
- Much of that Hoskins bit applies to Nate Lowe, too (minus the ACL portion, of course, ha)
Springfield Nine
- Hi Steve, lots of comments from Eric Lauer about being a starter this spring. Any chance the Jays pull a trade to make that happen? What kind of return could he get?
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