Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Hey all, hope you're well!
- I've been under the weather all week so going to keep this one right at an hour, let's get it going
NL Central
- I suggested in a previous chat that Nolan Arenado and Wilson Contreras would have the same fate as other hitters leaving STL/Busch, and it was met with skepticism. I had been hurt too often before. Nolan Arenado is running a wRC+ higher than all but one of his seasons in STL. Same for Willson. Is it just Busch or is it the dev team, or the hitting coaches? Seems crazy how often this happens.
Anthony Franco
- Contreras had stretches like this with STL. This is a little above his baseline but he's been a well above-average hitter everywhere he's been
- I think you have more of a case with Arenado's rebound but it's mostly coming at home, where Chase Field definitely plays more hitter-friendly than Busch, and probably has more to do with improved health than anything else
- Interesting debate with how little they've gotten from Gorman if they were better off holding Arenado than giving him away. Felt at the time like everyone needed the clean break, especially with where the organization was going, but you're probably looking at a win or two difference at third base in a season where the Cards are more competitive than they thought they'd be
Mike d
- Thoughts on a trade that would center around Matt McClain and top prospect for Duran? Boston and Cincy players could both use change of scenery.
Anthony Franco
- McLain's not doing anything for me at this point but I wouldn't give up a "top prospect" for Duran so I guess that's the bigger thing
AA
- my braves hit the ground running this year which is rare for my tenure.who do i trade for at the deadline? righty corner OF? starting pitcher? shortstop? bullpen? all seem like options but im ready for the big move. who is it and what will it cost?
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MLB Mailbag: Skubal, Nationals, Rays, Tibbs
This week's mailbag gets into the Tigers' decision points on Tarik Skubal, whether the Nationals can be taken seriously, how the Rays could upgrade, the current trade value of James Tibbs III, and more.
Chuck asks:
With the Tigers collapsing in the absence of Tarik Skubal, even with his return relatively imminent, the national media are salivating at the prospect of his escape from Detroit toward the bright lights (and easier access) of, I guess, the media centers of Los Angeles or New York. Assuming the Tigers don't recover to even .500 by late July, my questions are: (1) Is trading Skubal the only reasonable option the Tigers would have? (2) Is there a real scenario in which it would be better to retain Skubal and let him walk, accepting the sandwich pick instead? (3) If a trade is certain, are there actually any teams likely to give up true top-of-system value in return for two-plus months of Skubal, and which teams would those be? For the final question, please focus on your estimation of the best those teams would likely offer, rather than an estimation of what PBO Scott Harris would accept.
After a 10-6 loss Tuesday evening at the hands of the equally lousy Angels, the Tigers stand at 21-34 wth 34% of their season in the books. The Tigers still play in an AL Central where only the Guardians are projected to finish above .500, and in a league where the third Wild Card team is two games under. There seems to be a decent chance that in the AL this year, a .500 finish could net a playoff spot.
The Tigers have won only three of their last 20 games, yet still hold a 16.5% playoff chance. 68 days remain until the trade deadline, during which time the Tigers will play 58 games. The Tigers could reasonably let another third of their season play out before making a decision on Skubal, even if they need to lay some groundwork in July.
Skubal's last start was April 29th, and today marks the fifth start he's missed. In the immediate aftermath of the injury, I wrote in this mailbag that I found it unlikely we'd see Skubal before the August 3rd trade deadline. Then we learned about the NanoNeedle, a new smaller scope used to remove the loose body in Skubal's elbow. This was the first time this tool was used on an MLB player. Skubal threw a simulated game less than three weeks out from surgery, and there's talk of him returning in June. Remarkably, it seems like Skubal could make, say, nine or so big league starts before the deadline barring any setbacks. To answer Chuck's questions:
No, trading Skubal is not the only reasonable option the Tigers have. The 2024 Tigers didn't look like a playoff team on May 27th either (20.1% chance) and they did indeed have a postseason run. Simply holding onto Skubal for one last playoff push is perfectly reasonable if the team's chances hover in the 1-in-5 range or better. I'm sure Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris will take heat for holding onto Skubal if the Tigers do miss the playoffs, but I'd have no problem with it.
I don't think there's a scenario where the compensatory draft pick the Tigers would receive is more valuable than the players they'd get from trading for Skubal, in a vacuum. The Tigers are a revenue sharing recipient that will not pay the competitive balance tax this year, and Skubal will almost certainly get more than $50MM in guaranteed money in free agency. That puts the draft pick after the first round next year. I haven't reverse-engineered the 2027 draft too closely yet, but we can safely put that pick in the #29-33 range.
You know I love mini-studies. So I spot-checked the #30 pick for the 20-year period of 2001-2020, adding a few compensatory picks the following year for #30s who didn't sign (like the Dodgers failing to sign J.T. Ginn and drafting Michael Busch 31st in 2019).
I didn't want to get bogged down in control windows, and cutting this off at 2001 does exclude some very good #30s: Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt, as well as David Wells, Jerry Reuss, Travis Fryman, and Brian Jordan. Still, it'd be reasonable to say that the chances the #30 pick amounts to nothing in the Majors might be around two-thirds. Although I will note that if you count Busch, the last few years have provided a relative bounty at this spot, as it also gave us Cole Ragans, Anthony Volpe, and Jordan Westburg.
The Tigers' trade return for Skubal, assuming he returns healthy in June, would come with more certainty and value than a draft pick around #30 would. A multi-player trade package would also diversify Detroit's risk.
What makes this so hard for Harris is that he does not face a simple "#30-ish draft pick vs best possible trade package" choice. That's because the #30-ish draft pick scenario means keeping Skubal for the 2026 season, which adds a big boost to the Tigers' playoff odds. Let's say 25% playoff odds can be boosted to 40% with Skubal. How does that and the draft pick compare to the trade deadline package? This equation becomes much easier for Harris if the Tigers' playoff odds plummet toward 10% by late July.
So, a trade is not certain. A trade is realistic, though, so the Tigers need to be prepared for sell, hold, and possibly even buy scenarios. Would a team give up "top-of-system value" to rent 6-WAR type ace starting pitcher for two months of the regular season plus the playoffs? We can search for precedents, though Skubal's surgery was literally unprecedented, so it won't be perfect.
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Why Can’t The Angels Accept Reality?
We're nearly one third of the way through the 2026 regular season. The Angels have won exactly one third of their games. Despite getting out to a decent start -- the Halos were 11-10 after a win on April 17 -- they're now sitting on a 17-34 record. A resurgent performance from Mike Trout and a breakout from Jose Soriano fueled that early success, but those two alone can't carry the rest of the roster. The Angels have won only six of their past 30 games and just one of their past 10.
The end result doesn't come as a major surprise, although it's nevertheless jarring when any team rattles off a stretch with only six wins in 30 games. Still, the Angels didn't enter the season expected to be contenders. MLBTR readers overwhelmingly voted that their offseason was worthy of a D or F grade. FanGraphs projected what now looks like a charitable 72 wins. PECOTA had them down at 66 wins, which now also looks like it could finish on the high end. My colleague Anthony Franco opened his review of the Halos' offseason by writing that the Angels "did little to improve a 90-loss roster and again enter the season as one of the American League’s worst teams on paper."
It's a familiar refrain. The Angels will extend their playoff drought to 12 years when the current season concludes. They haven't had a winning record since 2015. Owner Arte Moreno has cycled through seven managers since their last winning season. Current skipper Kurt Suzuki is in a virtually unprecedented situation: a rookie manager on a one-year deal. There's a chance that 2027 will bring an eighth manager in 12 years.
To hear Suzuki tell it, the Angels are right on the cusp of turning things around. Sam Blum of The Athletic asked him last week whether he felt this was a cold stretch or reflective of where the Angels are as an organization. Suzuki replied: "I truly do believe that we've hit a cold stretch. Even that being said, there are a lot of games where we're in it. We're one swing away, maybe one pitch away, one out away."
Granted, there's not much Suzuki can say in that situation. It's a perfectly fair question to be asked, but a rookie manager on a one-year contract isn't going to throw the entire organization under the bus. He probably does believe, to an extent, that the players on hand have underperformed, gotten unlucky and that the record could be better. There may even be some truth behind that. The Angels certainly aren't a good team, but a team with Trout, Soriano and Zach Neto probably isn't quite bad enough to be a 54-win team (the Angels' current pace).
That said, the Angels are an unequivocally bad team. The organization has been stuck in neutral for more than a decade. Let's take a look at the current state of the roster, what could be done, and why the Halos are spinning their wheels in perpetuity.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope all is well!
- Looking forward to another of these, let's get going
Drew
- If you’re Andrew Friedman, which of the Dodgers outfield prospects are untouchable and which are in the mix in Skubal trade
Sandy at 90
- I know it is early but assuming that Skubal comes back from surgery and the Tigers fall out of the race, opinion on this deal to Dodgers. Skubal to LA for Zyhir Hope, River Ryan and Kellon Lynsey. Who says no?
Scott Harris
- Should I worry about my job or Hinch's? With the season slipping away, what is the max value Tarik Skubal would bring in a trade, once he's pitched effectively in a regular-season game? With Valdez, Mize, Montero, Anderson and some other starters soon to return, pitching isn't the issue - hitting is. Would a Skubal trade for a controllable OF/3B/1B bat be feasible? Perhaps a three-way for Devers if the Giants turn sellers? That might at lease let us improve offensively to compensate for Skubal's loss. Speaking of offense, Tork has produced very little; Keith has a nice BA but 0HR/6RBI isn't a 1B profile, either. Should Tork head to Toledo and Anderson get a shot? Keith to 1B until a trade brings another bat?
Anthony Franco
- Understandably a handful of Skubal questions. Tigers are going to take this to the wire but obviously the odds of a midseason trade keep going up the more they lose. Four-game sweep at the hands of the biggest threat in the division is brutal
- Don't think any of the Dodgers' prospects should be untouchable for Skubal. Assuming he comes back before the deadline, he's the player who'd most single-handedly improve their World Series odds
- De Paula's the one I'd most want to avoid trading, but if the Tigers were insistent on him as the headliner, I'd have a tough time walking away
- Hope + Ryan feels like a reasonable starting point. If Tigers do trade Skubal, it'd be more multiple young players. They're not going to have any interest in Devers
John B
- When Webb comes off the IL does Mahle get waived? I know it's a chunk of money but he's been awful and McDonald has been their best starter so far.
Anthony Franco
- Can't send McDonald down, I agree. Guessing it's Houser to the bullpen given the amount of money they invested in him and Mahle but those guys have both had brutal starts
- Houser's results have been a little better lately but still about an equal number of walks and strikeouts. It's rough
- I was fully out on Mahle but thought Houser would be better than this, even if I would not have gone to 2/22
- With all due respect to Trevor Story, is his injury an opportunity for the Red Sox to make an improvement to the infield on both sides of the ball?
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MLB Mailbag: Top Prospect Success Rates, Rangers, Buxton, Abrams
This week's mailbag gets into success rates for top-five prospects, the Rangers' woeful offense, Byron Buxton's willingness to accept a trade, and possible CJ Abrams suitors.
Don asks:
Of the Mariners' top drafted-or-or-traded for hitting prospects, three have been outright failures (Dustin Ackley, Jarred Kelenic, Jésus Montero) and only two (A-Rod and Junior) lived up to expectations. Is the M's experience typical of other teams, or do the M's simply have bad vibes?
I guess what I'm asking is what's the success record for, say, the top five prospects each year?
Let's assess the likelihood of success for a Baseball America preseason top five prospect! For this mini-study, I decided to end with the year 2019. That way, we're capturing players who have mostly had their chance to make a Major League impact, particularly within their six-year control period.
There is subjectivity to this process, but a sample of around 50 different players feels appropriate. To reach that total, I had to look at the time period of 2007-19, since many players are ranked top five in multiple years. For what it's worth, Ackley fell outside this sample because he topped out at #11, while Kelenic was omitted because his highest prospect ranking was in 2021 at #4.
Jesus Montero is on here, while Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. are not because I didn't extend the study that far back.
My way of assessing this is to look at the player's FanGraphs WAR for his first six years of team control. Finding that window for each player requires some manual legwork, which is why I didn't make the sample larger. Check out my data here!
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The White Sox’ Infield Is Mashing
The White Sox have been one of the pleasant surprises of the 2026 season. Last night's ninth-inning comeback in Seattle pushed them back to two games above .500 at 25-23. They're not far behind the Guardians in the AL Central and one of only four American League teams (the Rays and Yankees being the others) taking a winning record into Wednesday's games.
It's the best stretch of play by the White Sox since the first half of 2023. They're still not a great team overall, but it's the most exciting time for the fanbase in a while. Almost no one would've picked the White Sox as a live playoff threat after one of the worst three-year stretches in MLB history. Even if getting to October still feels like a long shot, they're putting together a legitimate offense.
The Sox are middle of the pack in scoring but land in the top 10 in both OPS and wRC+. Only the Yankees have hit more home runs than Chicago's 67, which is tied with Atlanta for second. They're sixth in slugging percentage and third in ISO (slugging minus average) after the Yankees and Braves. They've hit at this level despite zero at-bats from catcher Kyle Teel, one of their two best hitters in 2025 who hasn't played this season because of hamstring and knee issues. This is suddenly one of the better power-hitting teams in the league. Most of that comes from an infield that has a claim for best in baseball.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! We'll get going in 90 minutes or so, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time if you prefer. Looking forward to it!
- Happy Monday! Let's get going
Rookie Craze
- AJ Ewing or Henry Bolte? Who's ship are you jumping on? I see Ewing as a higher floor more guarantee to be a major league regular. I see Bolte as having a higher ceiling and more chance at All Star status but more risk of being a flop. Am I right?
Steve Adams
- I think Ewing just has a higher ceiling and floor. Bolte probably has more power and obviously has elite speed, but the hit tool is so shaky. Ewing feels both safer and likelier to become an All-Star
Olereb
- Are the Braves stuck with Jurickson Profar? I mean it does not sound fair, the Braves signed him because they felt he could help them for the next 3 years. He cheated not once but twice, he let them down. In my opinion the Braves should be able to void his contract. There’s nobody that’s going to want him and the circus that’s going to follow him.
Steve Adams
- They're not stuck paying him or anything. He's not taking a roster spot or collecting any salary while he's out with his suspension. He hit when he was healthy last year. I suppose they're stuck with him for 2027.I don't think you'll ever see an agreement that a PED suspension should void a player's contract. There are millions (tens of millions, in some cases) on the line. Imagine if ... I don't know, Anthony Rendon tested positive for PEDs last year and had his contract voided, then accused the Angels of giving him some kind of banned substance. It'd be a fiasco, and it flies in the face of the fully guaranteed contracts for which players have fought. I don't see it.
Carter
- Marlins are gearing towards a disappointing season... do you think they will capitalize on the market and sell off starting pitching? Alcantara can warrant a good return while someone like Meyer can get a better one. Any thoughts?
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The Brewers’ Unrelenting Pitching Pipeline
It's become almost a time-honored tradition. Fretting about the Brewers' pitching depth -- or lack thereof -- only to immediately be made to feel foolish for ever doubting our pitching development overlords. Milwaukee traded Freddy Peralta this offseason. Quinn Priester opened the season on the injured list. Brandon Woodruff's Opening Day status was up in the air for much of the spring. He made six starts, saw his average fastball dip from 92.5 mph to 85.4 mph in the last of them, and is now on the injured list alongside Priester.
With Woodruff and Priester on the injured list, the Brewers have two starters on the 40-man roster with more than a year of big league service time. They have ... zero ... with two full years of major league service. Surely a reckoning is coming. Or at least you'd think.
Instead, the Brewers are humming right along. Thursday's 7-1 drubbing of the Padres bumped them to 24-17. They're second in the NL Central behind the Cubs. Milwaukee has a firm grip on a Wild Card spot, and with the Cubs' own pitching staff increasingly decimated by injuries, the Brewers are gaining ground. Chicago just snapped a four-game losing streak. Milwaukee has won six of its past seven games and nine of its past dozen.
The recent surge isn't due to any sort of juggernaut offense. Milwaukee hadn't scored more than six runs in a game this month prior to Thursday. They're a league-average offense, per measure of wRC+. They're last in the majors with 27 home runs. Oh, and they're also allowing 2.18 runs per game this month -- 24 runs in 11 contests. The Brewers rank third in Major League Baseball with a 3.35 ERA. That includes a 3.27 ERA from the rotation, despite the injuries and lack of experience.
How are they getting it done, and are the key contributors pitching in a sustainable way? Let's take a deeper look.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon, everyone! We'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to ask questions ahead of time, as always.
- Good afternoon! Let's begin
Chris
- What kind of deal would Arraez be looking at next year if his defensive metrics at 2B continue to hold up?
Steve Adams
- The market just doesn't pay second-base-only players even if they can play decent defense. I suppose you could argue Arraez is a second base or first base option, but that's not helping his cause much, particularly not when he's hitting for less power than ever and still never walking.I'd be surprised if he got more than the 3/42 that's been somewhat en vogue in recent offseasons, and I think a two-year deal would be a likelier outcome. Arraez is very good at one thing (hitting singles) and doesn't offer a ton else.
wiseoldfool
- Ildemaro tsunami has subsided. What you project ROS?
Steve Adams
- The legend of Joltin' Joe Ildimaggio will live on fondly in my heart forever, but that was never holding up and I don't see any reason to think that, at 34 years young, he's morphed into a genuinely above average hitter. He's not hitting the ball hard or walking, and he's swinging at everything under the sun.He entered this season a career .249/.289/.357 hitter, and something in that vicinity is probably likely from here on out.
Sandy at 90
- Any chance Dodgers will be in on Skubal at trading deadline?
Ghost of Peanuts Lowery
- Just a wild thought: If, and it's a big "if," the Tigers decide that they needed to trade Skubal now in order to get pitchers in return who can help assure them a spot in the playoffs, would the Dodgers be a good fit? They have some good young pitchers and they wouldn't need Skubal until the postseason. Or would the Tigers decide that if they got into the playoffs, they would need Skubal?
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MLB Mailbag: Hader, Aroldis, Mariners, Rays
This week's mailbag looks at the trade value of Josh Hader and Aroldis Chapman plus other relief targets, Cal Raleigh's struggles and possible Mariners trade options, the Rays' shortstop situation, and much more.
Adam asks:
The Astros are really bad and their season was already in the trash can prior to Correa's injury. He's out for the year and they would be wise to sell everyone who isn't Alvarez. Josh Hader (who is also currently hurt) would have around $46 million and 2.5 years left on his deal if dealt around the deadline. He also has a no trade clause and again, is injured as of right now. Edwin Diaz is the same age as Hader and just signed for 3/67 this offseason and they are very comparable. In theory, if Hader was a free agent this past winter, he likely could have gotten more money than what he had signed for so he has positive value, in theory. If he is open to waving his NTC, what would he fetch at the deadline?
Jeff asks:
I know early season trades are rare, but do you think the Red Sox would be willing to trade Chapman sooner than later? He's having a great start to the season and not a whole lot of games to save in Boston. What do you think the Red Sox would want back?
Mike asks:
Who will be the best closers traded at the deadline?
I decided to lump all my reliever trade questions together.
Hader, 32, made the All-Star team last year but his season ended in mid-August due to a left shoulder capsule strain. As of late November he was expecting a normal spring training, but then biceps inflammation popped up in February. He's on the 60-day IL and is eligible to return to the Astros on May 24th. The lefty has made three scoreless relief appearances so far. We have Statcast data for two of them, and he threw his sinker in the 94-95 mile per hour range. That's not far below the 95.5 he averaged in his excellent '25 season.
At the deadline, Hader will be owed a bit less than $45MM through 2028. And yes, he has a full no-trade clause. So he'll have to be compensated to waive it unless he really just wants out of Houston. Hader is a Maryland native, so it's possible he'd enjoy an East Coast team.
Hader should have more than two months to prove his health pitching for the Astros prior to the August 3rd trade deadline. As a $19MM a year reliever coming off an injury, Hader's trade value may be limited. Throw in his full NTC, and his market will shrink further. He still has elite reliever potential and could be a huge asset in the postseason, but certain contenders may be unable to get involved due to his salary and veto power.
For example, Hader would be a great fit on the Royals or Reds, but those teams would likely balk at his contract even if he'd approve a trade. A big market team would be a cleaner fit. Which big market teams have at least a 40% shot at the playoffs right now? That list includes the Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers. The Yankees and Cubs stand out, with the former possibly holding the East Coast edge.
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