MLB Mailbag: Jordan Walker, Cubs, Guardians, Tigers, Riley
This week's mailbag gets into Jordan Walker's hot start, the Cubs' approach to Cade Horton's season-ending injury, the future of the Guardians, and slow starts for the Tigers as well as Braves third baseman Austin Riley.
Sam asks:
I know it way too early to ask this question I cannot help it. Jordan Walker has a 183 wRC+ and is on pace for 39 HRs is he has 456 ABs (ZIPS AB projection). He will cool off a bit—at least. But say he has finally arrived (met his potential, however you want to call it) and settles into being a 130-135 wRC+ and 30-35 HR hitter, how do you think that impacts the Cardinals' short and long term outlook with their rebuild?
Walker, 24 in May, sits at a 181 wRC+ through 44 plate appearances after hitting a solo home run in five trips to the plate Tuesday at Nationals Park.
I pulled up the wRC+ leaderboard last year through April 6th, with a minimum of 40 plate appearances. Here's a list of the top 20, first showing their wRC+ through April 6th and then showing what it was for that player for the rest of the season.
- Aaron Judge - 246 / 202
- Kyle Tucker - 224 / 126
- Kristian Campbell - 207 / 63
- Tyler Soderstrom - 206 / 119
- Jackson Merrill - 201 / 108
- Spencer Torkelson - 193 / 112
- Anthony Volpe - 192 / 75
- Corbin Carroll - 181 / 136
- Nolan Arenado - 178 / 75
- Kyle Schwarber - 178 / 151
- Lars Nootbaar - 171 / 90
- Alex Bregman - 166 / 121
- Fernando Tatis Jr. - 164 / 129
- Sal Frelick - 162 / 110
- Heliot Ramos - 159 / 103
- Brendan Donovan - 157 / 115
- Jose Altuve - 155 / 111
- Teoscar Hernandez - 153 / 97
- Eugenio Suarez - 152 / 123
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 150 / 124
- Jordan Westburg - 149 / 110
- Shohei Ohtani - 148 / 174
- Andres Gimenez - 147 / 60
- Julio Rodriguez - 144 / 125
- Nico Hoerner - 138 / 108
- Jackson Chourio - 136 / 109
- Seiya Suzuki - 135 / 121
- Lawrence Butler - 134 / 93
- Rafael Devers - 134 / 135
- Brice Turang - 134 / 123
Walker came into the 2026 season with 1,039 Major League plate appearances and an 89 wRC+. Every player is different, but the best comp here might be Torkelson, even though the latter had a little more experience and success in his career to that point. But I'd say the range of rest-of-season outcomes on Walker remains very wide: this could be nothing, or a full breakout. Sorry, the truth is often boring.
I also think it's worth asking whether Walker has hit like this in the Majors before. For that, we use the Stathead Span Finder. I'm not a huge OPS guy, but that's probably the best "overall offense" stat in this tool. Walker's OPS is currently 1.014, spanning 11 games and 44 PA. He has had a couple of streaks at least this good, basically in June and August of his 2023 rookie season:
- 6-6-23 to 6-18-23: Walker hit .395/.477/.789 (1.267 OPS) with 4 HR in 44 PA
- 8-22-23 to 9-5-23: Walker hit .432/.488/.838 (1.326 OPS) in 4 HR in 43 PA
Even in his lousy 2025 season, Walker had a 43-PA July run where he hit .342/.419/.500 (.919 OPS) over 43 PA, though he did not homer during that streak.
What kind of evidence is on the breakout side of the ledger?
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Free Agent Power Rankings: Players #11-15
Last week, MLBTR took our first look at the top 10 players (based on predicted earning power) in the 2026-27 free agent class. There's always a lot of volatility this early in players' walk years. That's especially true of next year's group, which has a clear headliner in Tarik Skubal but is otherwise light in high-end talent.
MLBTR's free agent rankings are an attempt at consensus between Steve Adams, Darragh McDonald, Tim Dierkes and myself. There's usually overlap within the top handful of spots, but our individual lists typically start to differ within the back half of the top 10. The second and third tiers of free agents become more muddled and personal preferences come more into play. Skubal was a consensus pick at #1, and we each had Freddy Peralta and Bo Bichette in some order at #2 and #3. It diverged from there.
For example, Steve Adams had Trevor Rogers as his #4 free agent, while I had Rogers outside my personal top 10. (The Baltimore lefty ended up at #5 in the consensus ranking.) There's not much separation between players at the back of the top 10 and the best of the honorable mentions. With that in mind, let's take a look at five players who landed just outside the top 10. Most of these players had some support from at least one MLBTR writer for making the list, and any of them could plausibly jump into future iterations based on their performance over the next few months.
Kevin Gausman, SP, Blue Jays
If we were ranking players by the projected annual value of their next contract, Gausman would probably have landed in the top five. The two-time All-Star should do very well on a per year basis. It's nevertheless difficult to see him getting to a nine-figure deal when he'll turn 36 next January. There hasn't been a four-year deal for a 36-year-old free agent pitcher in almost 20 years.
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What’s Next For Sandy Alcantara?
For the past few years, the Marlins have been shopping pitching almost constantly, even guys with multiple years of club control. Despite persistent rumors, Sandy Alcantara has usually been off the table, for different reasons at different times. As time goes on and we move closer to the end of his contract, the Marlins will have to make a decision, with still several ways for the situation to play out.
The Marlins and Alcantara agreed to an extension in November of 2021, a five-year deal covering the 2022 through 2026 seasons. It guaranteed him $56MM and also came with a $21MM club option for 2027, with a $2MM buyout.
That deal was well-timed from the team perspective, as Alcantara went on to have the best season of his career in 2022. He logged 228 2/3 innings, allowing 2.28 earned runs per nine. He wasn't the most dominant pitcher in terms of strikeouts, but thanks to his strong ground ball rate, no one was more likely to just carve through a lineup for an entire contest. He tossed six complete games that year. From 2018 to the present, no other pitcher has tossed more than three complete games in a season. Alcantara was given the National League Cy Young award for that dominant campaign.
Despite Alcantara's efforts, the Fish were still rebuilding, as they went 69-93 that year. Going into 2023, they were willing to listen to trade offers regarding their pitchers, but Alcantara was reportedly not available. That made plenty of sense at the time. Though the club wasn't in great shape, Alcantara was still under club control for five more seasons and was just coming off that dominant showing.
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Read The Transcript Of Today’s Front Office Chat With Tim Dierkes
MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes held a live chat with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers on Monday. Click the link below to read the transcript.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope you're all well!
- Looking forward to another of these, let's get it going
Brewer Fan
- Is it weird that the Brewers haven't actually announced the Pratt extension? And on that topic, if it does get done, it wouldn't rule out a Made or Pena extension right?
Anthony Franco
- It's a little atypical but I don't think any cause for concern. Adam McCalvy hypothesized yesterday that it's just a logistical holdup on completing the physical
- Which would make sense. He played for Nashville through March 29, the extension report came out on the 30th, and he hasn't played any of their past three games despite being on the active roster. Could just be a travel thing to get him to Milwaukee and get final sign-off on the medical
thebeatlesshow
- Anthony, Thanks again. Is the complete game no hitter on the way to being extinct (if it isn't already)?
Anthony Franco
- I don't think so. Less common, yes, largely because teams are more concerned about pitch counts and there's a decent chance you're running a pretty high number in a no-hitter because it's probably coming with some strikeouts
- But it's still a hell of an accomplishment for a pitcher and managers care about that
- Whoops, just realized I didn't answer the second part of that first Brewers question:
Don't see why Pratt would take a Made or Pena extension off the table, no
Cubbies
- What are the Cubs gonna do with their OF after this season? Happ and Seiya both FAs and Cassie was traded for Cabrera.
Anthony Franco
- QO to both, ideal if one of them accepts and takes that decision off the table. Feels like Happ is the likelier of the two to return if they're signing one to a three-year deal
- If they believe in Kevin Alcántara at all, have to give him a real opportunity next year. He'll be out of options and the strikeout questions aren't getting answered if he's only playing twice a week
Little Texas
- I’m my way to the Rangers home opener to see Gore pitch, Here’s to his CY Young season.
Anthony Franco
- Enjoy!
3D-space ABS
- Why would the Mariners forgo managing a signing like Emerson's so that PPI was still in play?
M
- now that he's signed an extension and thus no longer eligible for the PPI, how long before Emerson is up with the Ms?
-
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Will Any Pre-Arbitration Pitchers Sign Extensions?
From a transaction perspective, this time of the baseball calendar is defined by extensions. Within the past month, we've seen two impending free agents (Nico Hoerner and Jesús Luzardo) come off the board. The Cubs got a deal done with pre-arbitration center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Philadelphia extended Cristopher Sánchez even though he was already potentially signed through 2030.
The Orioles extended arbitration-eligible starter Shane Baz. The Mariners reached the largest pre-debut extension with shortstop prospect Colt Emerson. That's likely to be a brief record with the Pirates reportedly working on a deal with #1 overall prospect Konnor Griffin. Milwaukee infield prospect Cooper Pratt is nearing an eight-year contract of his own despite being a couple tiers below Griffin and Emerson according to scouts.
Despite all that activity, there's one demographic that has stayed out of the early-season extension run. There have not been any long-term deals for pre-arbitration pitchers this spring. Teams aren't quite as aggressive in extending pitchers early in their careers as they are with elite position player talents. There's more injury uncertainty with young arms.
However, there are generally a few extensions for pre-arbitration hurlers each season. Tanner Bibee, Brandon Pfaadt and Arizona closer Justin Martinez signed extensions last spring. Brayan Bello agreed to a six-year deal the year before that. Hunter Greene, Spencer Strider, Aaron Ashby, Garrett Whitlock and Emmanuel Clase were among those to sign between 2022-23.
Will any young pitchers sign extensions within the next few weeks? Let's run through a few speculative possibilities in each service class and the kind of money which those pitchers could command.
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MLB Mailbag: Soriano, Ryan, Nats, Extensions, Rays, Cardinals
I'm pinch-hitting for Tim Dierkes one more time on this week's mailbag. In this edition, we'll look at (very) hypothetical trade possibilities surrounding the Angels' Jose Soriano and the Twins' Joe Ryan, some young Nationals, the recent wave of extensions, and some questions on the outlooks for the Rays and Cardinals. Let's begin!
Casey asks...
OK, you're the Angels (sorry). When do you trade Jose Soriano...to whom...and what would be a likely return??
I'll delve into some hypotheticals involving Soriano's trade value and potential suitors shortly, but first and foremost, I'd caution against the idea of the Angels trading him.
That may sound counterintuitive. After all, the Halos obviously aren't expected to contend this season. They're out to a 3-3 start on the year, but the team's bullpen is comprised of rebound candidates, its position player group is littered with strikeout-prone veterans whose best years are behind them, and the rotation has all of two established big league starters: Yusei Kikuchi and Soriano.
FanGraphs projects the Angels to go 71-85 over the rest of the season. Baseball Prospectus/PECOTA is far more bearish, projecting a 66-96 season even after a decent first week of play. Very few expect this team to compete. (Apparently that's OK for owner Arte Moreno, who recently claimed that winning isn't among the top five priorities for Angels fans. Got it, Arte.)
Beyond that grim outlook, the Angels' farm is one of the game's worst. Anaheim's system briefly trended upward several years ago, but that was short-lived. Frequent development misses and prioritization of players who are close to MLB-ready in the draft -- often in place of higher-ceiling talents who are further from the majors -- have left the team without much of a farm. That leads to repeated dice rolls on former top prospects; the current roster includes names like Oswald Peraza, Yoan Moncada, Alek Manoah, Grayson Rodriguez and Vaughn Grissom.
On the surface, all of that would seem to indicate a rebuild is nigh. The Angels haven't reached the playoffs since 2014. They haven't had a winning season since 2015. This is a team in dire need of a rebuild.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good morning! Chatting a bit earlier than usual today, since I need to bring the car in for some work this afternoon. We'll get going at noon CT, but as always, feel free to ask some questions ahead of time if you prefer!
- Good afternoon!
- Let's begin
MarinersMan
- What areas will the Mariners target at the trade deadline, assuming they're performing like people expect them to? SP? RP? Bench depth?
Steve Adams
- Every contending club is in the mix for bullpen help. Seattle's bullpen core -- Munoz, Brash, Speier, Ferrer and to a lesser extent Bazardo -- is great, but they'll still be looking to deepen things. And if either Ferrer or Speier gets hurt, I'm sure they'll specifically target a lefty.I could see a corner OF/DH bat being on the list, as Canzone hasn't hit over a particularly large sample yet and a Raley/Robles platoon isn't exactly a lock to produce.
Rotation depth behind the top guys isn't great, so I can see a starter on the list if they have some health issues -- though they've obviously been pretty good at keeping Gilbert/Woo/Castillo/Kirby healthy (or at least clear of major season-ending issues)
- Broadly, the Mariners don't have a ton of holes though. Which is why they were I think universally picked by our staff to win the West.
Richard
- Hi Steve, When Joyce and Yates are back in May, who closes for LAA? At the end f the year, who has more saves for the Twins, Rogers or Sands?
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope you've all had a good week!
- We've got regular season baseball again, exciting times! Let's get rolling
Mad Max
- Thoughts on Cubs and extensions? Comp to Anthony and Red Sox,what percentage can be applied of regret to Armstrong,Anthony,Merrill in 3 years? Which tema takes a step forward due to locking up young talent versus using up a position and payroll?
Anthony Franco
- I'd order them Anthony, Merrill, PCA on value but I'd happily have done any of them if I were the team. The track record on those extensions for high-end position player prospects who find immediate MLB success is pretty good
- If that guy becomes Ronald Acuña or Corbin Carroll, it's one of the three to five most valuable contracts in the game. Even if they go the Michael Harris II or (worse) Ke'Bryan Hayes path, it's not the end of the world. Risk-reward in these cases almost always points to the team being aggressive if the player is willing to sign early
- Cubs ones are a little weird because they follow a different path than the usual early-career extension. Typically a little shorter commitment that buys out one or two free agent years without attaching club options at the back end.
They did something similar with Happ and the first Hoerner deal. It reduces the long-term upside a little bit but they seem to prefer keeping the guarantee comparatively low (PCA would've beaten Merrill money if they went longer)
NL MVP candidates
- Did the MLBTR staff have a chuckle that nobody picked anyone other than Ohtani to win his fourth consecutive NL MVP? Granted the NL might be somewhat light on superstars compared to the AL (Judge, Bobby Witt Jr, Cal Raleigh, Julio, etc)... but nobody thought Juan Soto deserved a nod? He's a 40-40 guy now after all
Anthony Franco
- Ha, we did them all individually. I put mine in last before sending them out but deliberately avoiding looking at anyone else's picks when I wrote them all up. After four or five Ohtani picks, I wondered if it'd be unanimous
- He's so clearly the best player in MLB that I think any of us felt like picking someone else would come off as too contrarian, but I would still take the field. Not like it'd be a huge surprise if Soto, Acuña, Carroll, even Tatis jumped in there
Randy, the destroyer
- Who do you think gets squeezed off the Yankees roster when Volpe returns (assuming everyone stays healthy until then)? Their bench is Goldy, Grichuk, backup C Escarra and Rosario. Do they just drop Grichuk at that point?
Anthony Franco
- They're probably assuming someone's hurt in between (Stanton most likely), but if they avoid any injuries, I'd guess Rosario's the odd man out. Feels a little redundant if you're also carrying Caballero on the bench
- Could also option Volpe if Caballero and all the bench guys are performing. Doubt that's the plan right now but it would preserve all the roster depth and if Volpe looks shaky on the rehab assignment, wouldn't be that hard to justify
To ATL
- I'm a big fan of Ozzie Albies the person, but is he on a short leash if his bat doesn't come to life? .548 OPS in Spring Training, yikes.
Anthony Franco
- Eh I just don't think the Braves believe in Nacho Alvarez at all and I have tough time seeing the argument that even a diminished version of Albies is worse than Jorge Mateo or Kyle Farmer
- The first $7M option was a no-brainer because he played well in the second half and there was the relatively big buyout ($4M). That's not the case for the upcoming option, so I wouldn't be surprised if they move on at the end of the year. Could curtail his playing time once HSK comes back by using Dubón at second, but I don't think Ozzie's getting pushed off the roster in-season
Joe Ryan
- I'm guessing I'm gone shortly after the break. Or are ownership and the FO too directionless to move anyone at the deadline, just like they fumbled the winter?
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8 Young Players Auditioning At New Positions
The 2026 season has gotten underway for all but six teams. The A's, Blue Jays, Braves, Royals, Rockies and Marlins will kick off their seasons today. The return of meaningful games has revealed or confirmed some usage plans.
There are a few veteran players who are known to be changing their primary positions this season -- in some cases sliding back to spots they've previously played. Brendan Donovan is moving over to third base to begin his Mariners tenure. The Marlins will play Christopher Morel at first base, while the Giants are giving Luis Arraez another chance to play second base. The Blue Jays are moving Andrés Giménez to shortstop after letting Bo Bichette walk. Mike Trout was back in center field for the Angels last night.
Positional movement is even more common for young players breaking in at the MLB level. Some well-regarded prospects are blocked at their natural positions and need to debut elsewhere. Others are moving down the defensive spectrum after struggling at their previous spots.
We'll run through some first- or second-year players taking on new defensive assignments to begin the year. They'll be worth monitoring to see how they take to unfamiliar spots on the diamond. For those who play fantasy baseball, this may also be an opportunity to get an early jump on players whose positional eligibility should expand within the first couple weeks of the season.
Jordan Lawlar, Diamondbacks, LF/CF
Lawlar was a full-time outfielder this spring, playing 14 games in center field and three in left. He made his regular season outfield debut as a left fielder last night. The D-Backs kept incumbent Alek Thomas in center, though they'll probably get Lawlar work up the middle as well. The 23-year-old made a nice play at the wall in his debut, taking a double away from Freddie Freeman in the process.
Throwing accuracy issues pushed Lawlar off third base at the end of the 2025 season. Arizona acquired Nolan Arenado to play alongside Geraldo Perdomo in what should be an excellent left side of the infield defensively. They need more offensive production out of the two outfield spots to the left of Corbin Carroll. Lawlar, a former No. 6 overall pick and .328/.414/.576 hitter in his Triple-A career, is going to get plenty of run out there.
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