Front Office Subscriber Chat With Anthony Franco
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MLB Mailbag: Top Prospect Success Rates, Rangers, Buxton, Abrams
This week's mailbag gets into success rates for top-five prospects, the Rangers' woeful offense, Byron Buxton's willingness to accept a trade, and possible CJ Abrams suitors.
Don asks:
Of the Mariners' top drafted-or-or-traded for hitting prospects, three have been outright failures (Dustin Ackley, Jarred Kelenic, Jésus Montero) and only two (A-Rod and Junior) lived up to expectations. Is the M's experience typical of other teams, or do the M's simply have bad vibes?
I guess what I'm asking is what's the success record for, say, the top five prospects each year?
Let's assess the likelihood of success for a Baseball America preseason top five prospect! For this mini-study, I decided to end with the year 2019. That way, we're capturing players who have mostly had their chance to make a Major League impact, particularly within their six-year control period.
There is subjectivity to this process, but a sample of around 50 different players feels appropriate. To reach that total, I had to look at the time period of 2007-19, since many players are ranked top five in multiple years. For what it's worth, Ackley fell outside this sample because he topped out at #11, while Kelenic was omitted because his highest prospect ranking was in 2021 at #4.
Jesus Montero is on here, while Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr. are not because I didn't extend the study that far back.
My way of assessing this is to look at the player's FanGraphs WAR for his first six years of team control. Finding that window for each player requires some manual legwork, which is why I didn't make the sample larger. Check out my data here!
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The White Sox’ Infield Is Mashing
The White Sox have been one of the pleasant surprises of the 2026 season. Last night's ninth-inning comeback in Seattle pushed them back to two games above .500 at 25-23. They're not far behind the Guardians in the AL Central and one of only four American League teams (the Rays and Yankees being the others) taking a winning record into Wednesday's games.
It's the best stretch of play by the White Sox since the first half of 2023. They're still not a great team overall, but it's the most exciting time for the fanbase in a while. Almost no one would've picked the White Sox as a live playoff threat after one of the worst three-year stretches in MLB history. Even if getting to October still feels like a long shot, they're putting together a legitimate offense.
The Sox are middle of the pack in scoring but land in the top 10 in both OPS and wRC+. Only the Yankees have hit more home runs than Chicago's 67, which is tied with Atlanta for second. They're sixth in slugging percentage and third in ISO (slugging minus average) after the Yankees and Braves. They've hit at this level despite zero at-bats from catcher Kyle Teel, one of their two best hitters in 2025 who hasn't played this season because of hamstring and knee issues. This is suddenly one of the better power-hitting teams in the league. Most of that comes from an infield that has a claim for best in baseball.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! We'll get going in 90 minutes or so, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time if you prefer. Looking forward to it!
- Happy Monday! Let's get going
Rookie Craze
- AJ Ewing or Henry Bolte? Who's ship are you jumping on? I see Ewing as a higher floor more guarantee to be a major league regular. I see Bolte as having a higher ceiling and more chance at All Star status but more risk of being a flop. Am I right?
Steve Adams
- I think Ewing just has a higher ceiling and floor. Bolte probably has more power and obviously has elite speed, but the hit tool is so shaky. Ewing feels both safer and likelier to become an All-Star
Olereb
- Are the Braves stuck with Jurickson Profar? I mean it does not sound fair, the Braves signed him because they felt he could help them for the next 3 years. He cheated not once but twice, he let them down. In my opinion the Braves should be able to void his contract. There’s nobody that’s going to want him and the circus that’s going to follow him.
Steve Adams
- They're not stuck paying him or anything. He's not taking a roster spot or collecting any salary while he's out with his suspension. He hit when he was healthy last year. I suppose they're stuck with him for 2027.I don't think you'll ever see an agreement that a PED suspension should void a player's contract. There are millions (tens of millions, in some cases) on the line. Imagine if ... I don't know, Anthony Rendon tested positive for PEDs last year and had his contract voided, then accused the Angels of giving him some kind of banned substance. It'd be a fiasco, and it flies in the face of the fully guaranteed contracts for which players have fought. I don't see it.
Carter
- Marlins are gearing towards a disappointing season... do you think they will capitalize on the market and sell off starting pitching? Alcantara can warrant a good return while someone like Meyer can get a better one. Any thoughts?
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The Brewers’ Unrelenting Pitching Pipeline
It's become almost a time-honored tradition. Fretting about the Brewers' pitching depth -- or lack thereof -- only to immediately be made to feel foolish for ever doubting our pitching development overlords. Milwaukee traded Freddy Peralta this offseason. Quinn Priester opened the season on the injured list. Brandon Woodruff's Opening Day status was up in the air for much of the spring. He made six starts, saw his average fastball dip from 92.5 mph to 85.4 mph in the last of them, and is now on the injured list alongside Priester.
With Woodruff and Priester on the injured list, the Brewers have two starters on the 40-man roster with more than a year of big league service time. They have ... zero ... with two full years of major league service. Surely a reckoning is coming. Or at least you'd think.
Instead, the Brewers are humming right along. Thursday's 7-1 drubbing of the Padres bumped them to 24-17. They're second in the NL Central behind the Cubs. Milwaukee has a firm grip on a Wild Card spot, and with the Cubs' own pitching staff increasingly decimated by injuries, the Brewers are gaining ground. Chicago just snapped a four-game losing streak. Milwaukee has won six of its past seven games and nine of its past dozen.
The recent surge isn't due to any sort of juggernaut offense. Milwaukee hadn't scored more than six runs in a game this month prior to Thursday. They're a league-average offense, per measure of wRC+. They're last in the majors with 27 home runs. Oh, and they're also allowing 2.18 runs per game this month -- 24 runs in 11 contests. The Brewers rank third in Major League Baseball with a 3.35 ERA. That includes a 3.27 ERA from the rotation, despite the injuries and lack of experience.
How are they getting it done, and are the key contributors pitching in a sustainable way? Let's take a deeper look.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon, everyone! We'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to ask questions ahead of time, as always.
- Good afternoon! Let's begin
Chris
- What kind of deal would Arraez be looking at next year if his defensive metrics at 2B continue to hold up?
Steve Adams
- The market just doesn't pay second-base-only players even if they can play decent defense. I suppose you could argue Arraez is a second base or first base option, but that's not helping his cause much, particularly not when he's hitting for less power than ever and still never walking.I'd be surprised if he got more than the 3/42 that's been somewhat en vogue in recent offseasons, and I think a two-year deal would be a likelier outcome. Arraez is very good at one thing (hitting singles) and doesn't offer a ton else.
wiseoldfool
- Ildemaro tsunami has subsided. What you project ROS?
Steve Adams
- The legend of Joltin' Joe Ildimaggio will live on fondly in my heart forever, but that was never holding up and I don't see any reason to think that, at 34 years young, he's morphed into a genuinely above average hitter. He's not hitting the ball hard or walking, and he's swinging at everything under the sun.He entered this season a career .249/.289/.357 hitter, and something in that vicinity is probably likely from here on out.
Sandy at 90
- Any chance Dodgers will be in on Skubal at trading deadline?
Ghost of Peanuts Lowery
- Just a wild thought: If, and it's a big "if," the Tigers decide that they needed to trade Skubal now in order to get pitchers in return who can help assure them a spot in the playoffs, would the Dodgers be a good fit? They have some good young pitchers and they wouldn't need Skubal until the postseason. Or would the Tigers decide that if they got into the playoffs, they would need Skubal?
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MLB Mailbag: Hader, Aroldis, Mariners, Rays
This week's mailbag looks at the trade value of Josh Hader and Aroldis Chapman plus other relief targets, Cal Raleigh's struggles and possible Mariners trade options, the Rays' shortstop situation, and much more.
Adam asks:
The Astros are really bad and their season was already in the trash can prior to Correa's injury. He's out for the year and they would be wise to sell everyone who isn't Alvarez. Josh Hader (who is also currently hurt) would have around $46 million and 2.5 years left on his deal if dealt around the deadline. He also has a no trade clause and again, is injured as of right now. Edwin Diaz is the same age as Hader and just signed for 3/67 this offseason and they are very comparable. In theory, if Hader was a free agent this past winter, he likely could have gotten more money than what he had signed for so he has positive value, in theory. If he is open to waving his NTC, what would he fetch at the deadline?
Jeff asks:
I know early season trades are rare, but do you think the Red Sox would be willing to trade Chapman sooner than later? He's having a great start to the season and not a whole lot of games to save in Boston. What do you think the Red Sox would want back?
Mike asks:
Who will be the best closers traded at the deadline?
I decided to lump all my reliever trade questions together.
Hader, 32, made the All-Star team last year but his season ended in mid-August due to a left shoulder capsule strain. As of late November he was expecting a normal spring training, but then biceps inflammation popped up in February. He's on the 60-day IL and is eligible to return to the Astros on May 24th. The lefty has made three scoreless relief appearances so far. We have Statcast data for two of them, and he threw his sinker in the 94-95 mile per hour range. That's not far below the 95.5 he averaged in his excellent '25 season.
At the deadline, Hader will be owed a bit less than $45MM through 2028. And yes, he has a full no-trade clause. So he'll have to be compensated to waive it unless he really just wants out of Houston. Hader is a Maryland native, so it's possible he'd enjoy an East Coast team.
Hader should have more than two months to prove his health pitching for the Astros prior to the August 3rd trade deadline. As a $19MM a year reliever coming off an injury, Hader's trade value may be limited. Throw in his full NTC, and his market will shrink further. He still has elite reliever potential and could be a huge asset in the postseason, but certain contenders may be unable to get involved due to his salary and veto power.
For example, Hader would be a great fit on the Royals or Reds, but those teams would likely balk at his contract even if he'd approve a trade. A big market team would be a cleaner fit. Which big market teams have at least a 40% shot at the playoffs right now? That list includes the Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers. The Yankees and Cubs stand out, with the former possibly holding the East Coast edge.
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Can The Rays Keep This Up?
The regular season has crossed the 25% mark and there's an unexpected team at the top of the American League. The 28-13 Rays have the AL's best record and second-best mark in MLB behind the Braves. The Rays have a history of outperforming expectations, but some of the magic had seemed to wear off with sub-.500 finishes in each of the last two seasons.
Tampa Bay had a slightly busier free agent period than they typically do. They added Nick Martinez and Steven Matz, the latter on a two-year contract. They brought in Cedric Mullins on a reclamation deal. At the same time, they were closer to the "seller" end of their two biggest trades of the winter. They dealt Shane Baz to the Orioles for four prospects and a draft pick. They sent Brandon Lowe, Mason Montgomery and Jake Mangum to the Pirates for two more prospects. Gavin Lux was their most established trade pickup of the offseason, and he has been a complete non-factor due to various injures.
So how have the Rays gotten out to one of the best starts in franchise history? Are they resurrecting a small ball offensive approach in the modern game, and what should be the deadline focus for a team that'll enter the summer more clearly looking to add MLB talent than they have over the past couple seasons?
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope you all enjoyed your weekend!
- Looking forward to another of these, let's get it going
My WS Teams
- Could the Cubbies or Mariners make a big time move for Freddy Peralta seeing that the Mets are out of it? What would it cost?
Coach Wall
- Given their terrible start, is it time for the Mets to deal? Freddy Peralta could bring 2 prospects to replace what they gave up to get him. What say you?
Anthony Franco
- Too early. He'd be the best rental pitcher available at the deadline, the return will still be strong in mid-late July
- They're pretty close to cooked but doubt they're ready to wave the white flag yet and waiting until July just allows potential buyers to have a better feel for whether they're going to be in or out. Cubs will be in Peralta two months from now too
- As for the price, similar to what they gave up is about right. Trade value is down a little bit -- acquiring team now can't make him a QO, half-season instead of full, Tobias Myers (presumably) not included -- but Williams/Sproat wasn't a massive package and some of the drop in trade value is counteracted by teams like the Cubs losing a bunch of starters to injury
Jackalope
- How real is the Riley O'Brien breakout? If the cards fall out of contention, will he be a midsummer trade candidate?
Tony
- It's difficult to see the Cardinals hanging on to the race. What would o'brien bring back at the deadline?
Anthony Franco
- He's cheap, building back-end experience, and has the 99-100 MPH sinker that hitters seem to have a really tough time differentiating from the breaking stuff
- I think he's the second- or third-best reliever in a good bullpen, and he's old enough (31) that it saps some of the value of the five remaining years of club control, but he's a good trade chip
- I'd have him below Jose A. Ferrer (and obviously way below Mason Miller) when they got traded but do think they could pull a couple mid-level prospects for him and should at least be open to the conversation
Another Eric Lauer Question
- Could I be a long shot to be DFA'd today when Yaril Rodriguez is added to the 26?
Anthony Franco
- Nice call to the person who sent this question in at 1:40 this afternoon
Jed's Dead
- Giants looking to unload some salary. I don't think the Cubs make sense for any of their position players, but Robbie Ray would be enticing to me. Even if not for another month or two, what sort of package do you think it would take to acquire him?
busted posey
- I am stuck with 4 unlovable and unmove-able contracts (Devers, Chapman, Adames and Jung Hoo Lee). Luis Arraez and Robbie Ray are potentially trade-able rentals. Could I get back more now vs. at August deadline?
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The Mariners’ Latest Pitching Success Story
For years, the Mariners' largely homegrown rotation has been one of the envies of teams around the league. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryan Woo have all made an All-Star team in the past couple years. All three have a career ERA of 3.61 or better with better-than-average strikeout and walk rates alike. Bryce Miller hasn't had as much success relative to his teammates, but he posted a 3.52 ERA with quality strikeout and walk rates in his first 56 MLB starts before an injury-ruined 2025 season (90 1/3 innings, 5.68 ERA, two IL stints for elbow inflammation).
Veteran righty Luis Castillo wasn't signed and developed by the Mariners, but Seattle pried him from Cincinnati in a 2022 trade for a package headlined by infield prospects Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo. The M's quickly extended Castillo on a five-year, $108MM deal. In parts of five seasons with Seattle, his 3.61 ERA is right in line with the previously mentioned group (and a near-identical match to his 3.62 mark in six seasons with the Reds).
No organization in baseball has had more continuity in its major league rotation than the Mariners since this wave of pitchers arrived on the scene at T-Mobile Park. They've been consistent, productive and, with the exception of Miller's recent injury issues, largely durable. That's been key for the Mariners, because one less-talked-about aspect of their strong rotation is that the depth behind the group hasn't been great.
From 2022-25, the quintet of Gilbert, Kirby, Woo, Miller and Castillo started 75% of the Mariners' games. (Castillo wasn't even acquired until July 29 of the 2022 season.) The Mariners had rotation cameos from Robbie Ray (signed to a five-year deal, missed the second season due to Tommy John surgery, then traded to the Giants), Chris Flexen (26 starts on the back end of his low-cost contract) and Marco Gonzales (a holdover from the prior rotation group who was eventually traded while injured). But for the most part, it's been the same group of five, which has helped to mask the fact that the bulk of their top prospects in recent years have all been position players.
One hopeful addition to the group, for years, was right-hander Emerson Hancock. The No. 6 overall pick in 2020, Hancock was never touted as a future ace. He was an advanced college arm with above-average stuff and good command, one whom Baseball America tabbed as a potential No. 3 starter -- "and perhaps better if he refines his breaking pitches."
Instead, Hancock's development went the other direction. His command worsened. He lost some life on his fastball as he battled shoulder troubles and a lat strain. In general, he became more hittable. Hancock's strikeout rate plummeted when he reached Triple-A in 2024, though he still posted a mid-3.00s ERA. He was north of 5.00 in 2025.
Between some infrequent and inconsistent big league stints from 2023-25, Hancock totaled 162 2/3 innings with a 4.81 ERA, one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball (15.6%) among pitchers with that many innings and a good-not-great walk rate (7.8%). He looked like a fifth or sixth starter -- the type of arm who oscillates in and out of a rotation before possibly settling into a bullpen role or beginning to bounce around the league as a swingman.
There weren't many tangible signs of a breakout last year. Hancock's average fastball climbed to a career-high 94.9 mph, although that was at least moderately skewed by a move to the 'pen later in the season. He sat 94.6 mph as a starter in 2025 -- still up from his previous career-best 93.4 mph -- and 97.2 mph as a reliever. But even with the velo increase, Hancock's swinging-strike rate fell. His opponents' contact rate climbed. His 8.1% walk rate was a career-worst mark. Hancock had the look of a depth starter and was entering his final option year in 2026. The long-term outlook wasn't great.
And then spring training rolled around.
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