Anthony Franco
- Hey everyone, hope you've had a good week!
- Will need to keep this one right around an hour because Steve's not feeling well and this afternoon has been crazy. Let's get rolling
Bucs fan
- Please evaluate the trade from the Pirates perspective
Ben Cherrington
- WAIT! WAS THAT REALLY ME?
Anthony Franco
- Might as well start with thoughts on the trades since they're top of mind
- I really like the three-team deal for everyone involved. Probably most favorable for it on Pittsburgh's end though. Lowe's a massive offensive upgrade and I'm still very much in on Montgomery even though this year was a disappointment
- There's probably only a 20% chance that Montgomery throws enough strikes to click to his full potential, but if he does, it's top 10 reliever in MLB type stuff. As a developmental second piece, absolutely in on that
- Mangum's a fine extra outfielder. Never really been in on him as a prospect but he's already carved out a better pro career than I assumed he'd have based on the limited physical tools
- I like Burrows quite a bit but they needed to trade a starter for offense and he was always the one who offered the best blend of real trade value without the huge ceiling of Ashcraft, Jones, Chandler etc.
- The Astros needed a cheap mid-rotation arm and got it without giving up Meyers or Cam Smith. I'm lowest on it from the Rays perspective relatively speaking, but they'll be able to get an immediate look at Melton and must love Brito, since he reportedly came up when they were kicking around Baz with Houston. I think it works for all involved
MattStats5
- Orioles need arms, and Baz is a solid pick up. Seems like an overpay to me, though. Your thoughts?
Anthony Franco
- Yeah, this one I just prefer from Tampa Bay's end. I get the appeal with three years of control over Baz but the inconsistency, middling command, and injury history give me enough pause that I would not have gone as far as Baltimore did
- Baltimore needed a starter who has upper mid-rotation ceiling and Baz provides that. I don't know what the ask would have been with Miami on Cabrera or if Gore was feasible given the organizational history, but I'd rather have either of those pitchers than Baz
Mariners
- Do you think this happened because Pittsburgh was told they were out on either Marte or Donovan?
Anthony Franco
- They could still make either of those guys work by using Lowe at DH or kicking Donovan around the diamond, but I never felt like Pittsburgh was the top landing spot for either one
- You've got the intra-division complications with STL. I still remain skeptical that the D-Backs are trading Marte despite all the smoke and even if they do, that's a pretty big contract by Pirates standards to take on while giving up a ton of young pitching talent
Philly A's
- The Phillies trading Strahm is confusing, $7.5m isnt really that much of a salary dump.
Anthony Franco
- Agreed. Felt like they were determined to trade one of the lefty reliever (ideally him) for reasons that were never entirely clear to me
- The velocity has trended down so maybe they just think he's cooked, but like you mentioned, the $7.5M salary is fine. Bowlan was pretty good this year and maybe they build him back into a swing role?
Al
- How likely is it that Jordan Walker will be traded?
Anthony Franco
- I don't see the point of doing it this winter, value is way down. I'd give him one more shot
Bob T.
- It appears that the Angels are following the same script as the last ten plus years. They are still in the same boat as before the Winter Meetings. They still need a CF, 2B, 3B another starter or more and a closer.
will Arte loosen the purse strings or is this the team he intends to field. I can see 100 losses this season. Thoughts?
Anthony Franco
- They've got enough payroll space even relative to last season that I think they'll at least come away with a third baseman and another leverage reliever
- That's still not enough but I'll say that within those restrictions, I'm a little more bullish on the Rodriguez, Manoah and Grissom dice rolls than I have been on their buy-low candidates of the previous few years
Bill
- All of the Braves projected needs seem to have been addressed except for a starter, whom do you think is likely in the remaining group?
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MLB Mailbag: Tucker, Rays, Mariners, Tigers, Dustin May
This week's mailbag gets into whether Kyle Tucker will sign a shorter-term deal, options for the Rays at catcher, the trade value of controllable Mariners starters, the Tigers' offseason thus far, Dustin May's potential impact with the Cardinals, and much more.
Dave asks:
At this point do you think Kyle Tucker will take a high AAV deal — example: 5 years $250 million with opt outs after years 2 and 4?
I'm writing this on December 17th, and I don't think we're at that point with Tucker. It's true that long-term free agent deals usually happen in December. The last free agent deal of 8+ years that didn't happen in December was Bryce Harper in March 2019, with his 13-year deal coming a few weeks after Manny Machado's ten-year pact.
Eric Hosmer got an eight-year deal in February 2018, and Prince Fielder signed for nine years in January 2012.
That's about it, though, so if we get to the new year without a Tucker deal, the odds start shifting toward a shorter term.
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The Best Fits For Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami will make his decision within the next five days. Japan's premier slugger is expected to sign with an MLB team after being posted by the Yakult Swallows. The 45-day process began on November 8, meaning Murakami has until December 22 to put pen to paper.
Murakami's camp has played things very close to the vest. While they've undoubtedly spent the past month speaking with teams, there hasn't been any reporting about which clubs are involved. It's inherently more difficult from the outside to project the market for players without any major league track record. A lot depends on individual teams' scouting evaluations.
That's particularly true in Murakami's case. Scouts are unanimous in praising his monster power potential. The lefty hitter drilled 56 home runs in his age-22 season a few years back. That's an outlier but he has another four seasons with between 31 and 39 longballs. That doesn't include this year, in which oblique injuries limited him to 69 games. Murakami connected on 24 homers while hitting .286/.392/.659 across 263 plate appearances -- which would have put him on a 55-60 homer pace over a full season. His exit velocities are off the charts. There's a chance he's in the Kyle Schwarber or Shohei Ohtani tier in terms of left-handed raw power.
As is often the case, the bigger question is whether he'll make enough contact to be an impact bat in MLB. Murakami has fanned a near-26% rate in his NPB career. That was up to 28.6% this year and closer to 30% in his last full season in 2024. Hitters can thrive while striking out that often -- Schwarber has gone down on strikes at a 28.8% rate over the last four years -- but Murakami's strikeout rate seems likely to climb against big league competition.
The average pitcher quality and velocity is higher in MLB than it is at the NPB level. Should Murakami be expected to strike out more than 30% of the time in the majors? Do teams expect him to punch out more than a third of the time? Scouts could have differing evaluations on Murakami's pure hitting ability.
There's little doubt that the bat needs to drive the profile. Listed at 6'2" and 213 pounds, Murakami isn't viewed as an especially rangy third baseman. He's likely to end up at first base before the end of his contract. Some teams might project him to the position on day one. Others could feel he'd be a passable third baseman in the short term, but his defense isn't likely to improve with age.
Murakami turns 26 in February. He's younger than essentially any top-tier domestic free agent, who'd need to play six full seasons in the big leagues before they can hit the market. This is a chance to add a potential prime-age superstar, but there's also massive downside given the swing-and-miss and defensive questions. It's likely that whatever deal he signs will come with one or more opt-out chances that allow Murakami to get back to free agency a few years from now if he has proven he can hit MLB pitching.
MLBTR predicted an eight-year, $180MM deal in ranking him the offseason's #4 free agent. That's admittedly without a huge amount of confidence given the challenges of projecting this profile. Let's take a look at which teams are best positioned to make this move.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat, Today 3pm CT
MLBTR's Steve Adams is hosting a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Hey everyone, hope you've all enjoyed your week!
- Looking forward to another of these, let's get it going
Reds
- Four guys under contract (Hayes, Greene, Trevino, Pagan) and less than $80 million in payroll per BR. They can't be serious about not signing anyone, right?
Anthony Franco
- Not sure where you've got the sub-$80M mark but I think they're more like 105 once you factor in arb projections and minimum salary players to build out the roster
- They should've non-tendered Lux and should still shop him and Steer, kick around ideas about swapping Singer for a bat. I don't expect them to do much in free agency, though
- They've never gone beyond $64M on a free agent and Schwarber was a special case from ownership's perspective
Breslow
- There's been rumors that the Dodgers may be looking to unload Teoscar to open up their OF a bit - do you think a swap of Teo for someone like Jordan Hicks would make some sense? Teo could become the RH DH bat the Sox are looking for while dumping Hicks $$ - relatively small net payroll add for Boston and LAD saves some money and gets back a live arm....
Anthony Franco
- Don't think it does a lot for the Dodgers. Teoscar's rough out there but so much of the deal was in a signing bonus so the remaining salary commitments (plus option buyout) is 2/33, a lot of it deferred. Hicks is due a straight 2/24 and isn't good. Teoscar should be a DH but he's still at least an offensive contributor
Robert from SC
- How much did the Braves improve with the Suarez and Yaz signings?
Anthony Franco
- Didn't love either move. Would've stopped at two years on Suarez and one on Yaz. The latter's a weird roster fit anyway unless they're trading Profar or more concerned about Murphy's health than they've really let on
- Suarez is a good, not great reliever who's entering his age-35 season. Obviously the bullpen's better with him than without, but if the velocity drops from 98-99 to like 96-97, eh
- Already doesn't have huge swing-and-miss rates because he doesn't throw a breaking ball
Willson Contreras
- Is there a taker for me if I waive the no trade? Mets? Someone else?
Anthony Franco
- Mets make the most sense, Boston could work there. Arizona, San Diego, Texas all fit positionally but probably require the Cards to eat more than half the money
Hmm
- If a team loves the Rule 5 player they chose, but don't really want to keep him on the MLB roster all season per the MLB rules, can they work out a deal with his previous team to keep him or must they pass him through waivers first, and then if he passed through waivers, must offer him back to his previous team?
Anthony Franco
- Needs to go through waivers and get offered back to the original team first. They can then try to trade for him back, which does happen sometimes -- usually for cash
Who signs first?
- Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, or Bo Bichette - who do you think signs first of this trio?
Anthony Franco
- I'll take Bo, largely on the assumption that he goes back to Toronto
Pete Alonso
- Do you think I crack 183 home runs with the Orioles, which would put 10th on the all-time home run franchise leaderboard?
Anthony Franco
- That's an average of 37 per season unless they extend or re-sign him down the line. I'll take the under, think I'd set it more at like 160
Coldstove season
- Has this been one of the slower starts to an offseason in recent memory or am I falling for some recency bias? The Winter Meetings in particular felt much less active than usual.
Anthony Franco
- Agree that the Meetings were quieter than usual. Offseason as a whole maybe a little slower than normal but not dramatically so. I get some version of this question every year
- I think there's been a decent amount of movement overall but it's not all that exciting because so much of it has been the bullpen market
Curious A's Fan
- Your call: Do you overpay for a FA pitcher like Bassitt or M. Kelly (2+ year contract) OR trade Colby Thomas for a rental SP like Singer or Bubic?
Anthony Franco
- I'd trade Thomas for Bubic (assuming the medical review checks out) but not for Singer. I don't think a two-year deal at $16-18M per for Merrill or Bassitt is much of an overpay, so I'm fine with that direction if they want to give Thomas a chance to play his way into the outfield mix again
- I would be out on either of those guys if it got to three years though
Joe from Milwaukee
- The Brewers have made giant trades before when they had other young, controllable pieces in place (Yelich). Do you think they pull off a Ketel Marte/Corey Seager sized trade since almost all of their position players are controllable for at least a few more seasons? Or maybe James Wood if they prefer to get more out of their CF?
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How Might The Mets Replace Pete Alonso?
The biggest news of a relatively quiet Winter Meetings dropped on the final day. Pete Alonso is headed to Baltimore (pending a physical) on a massive five-year deal. His departure from the Mets had been telegraphed by the team's reported reluctance to go beyond three years. It's nevertheless jarring for a team that has spent at the top of the league to be comfortably outbid on the franchise's all-time home runs leader by a mid-market Orioles club.
Alonso's departure came one day after the Mets let Edwin Díaz walk to the Dodgers. They're a few weeks removed from trading Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien. Clearly, president of baseball operations David Stearns and his front office weren't happy to run it all back after the team melted down in the second half. They've signed Devin Williams to replace Díaz. We've yet to see how they'll respond to the losses on the position player side. There's plenty more to come -- no team is complete on December 10 -- but the 2026 Mets will look a lot different than the teams of the past few seasons.
At the beginning of the offseason, Stearns spoke about a need to improve the pitching and defense (link via Will Sammon of The Athletic). Aside from the Williams signing, they've waited out the pitching market so far. Their position player moves, or lack thereof, suggest they're indeed focused on getting more athletic. Semien remains an excellent defensive second baseman. Alonso's lack of defensive value is a big reason they were reluctant to pay him into his mid-30s.
Where do they go from here?
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MLB Mailbag: Gore, Pivetta, Phillies, Santander
As the Winter Meetings start to pick up, this week's subscriber mailbag gets into MacKenzie Gore trade proposals, more trade ideas involving this year's Cy Young winners, the trade value of Nick Pivetta and Anthony Santander, and much more.
Steve asks:
Assuming that MacKenzie Gore has not been traded as I write this, would either of these two deals be likely to work for the teams involved?
1. Gore and Luis Garcia, Jr. to the Giants for Bryce Eldridge and Carson Whisenhunt? or
2. Gore to the Red Sox for Triston Casas and Connelly Early?
Your thoughts?
Gustav asks:
Who’d say no in a Gore & Abrams for Sheehan, Freeland, Ferris & Hope?
Gore, 27 in February, has two more years of team control remaining. He's had a couple of 3-WAR type seasons in 2024 and '25, but they came with extreme volatility.
The lefty made 32 starts in 2024. He had a 14-start stretch in the middle where he posted a 6.18 ERA, 19.8 K%, and 11.4 BB%. That 8.3 K-BB% was the fourth-worst in baseball among qualified starters during that June 3rd-August 17th period. Before and after that, Gore pitched like an ace. His velocity was up early in the season, spiking to 96.6 miles per hour from the beginning of the year through July 1st. It was a full mile per hour slower from that point on.
Similarly, Gore entered a July 20th start against the Padres this year with a 3.02 ERA, 30.5 K%, and 7.7 BB%. His was back in ace form, and earned his first All-Star nod. From that point forward, though, Gore posted a 6.75 ERA, 20.7 K%, and 12.8 BB% over his final 11 starts. This stretch was a bit more concentrated into three or four blow-ups. Gore's velocity was back down to 95.3 this year, but was relatively consistent game-to-game.
A run through Gore's injury history:
- 2018: IL time with blisters and fingernail issues
- August 2019: rested for 26 days to manage workload
- 2020: no minor league season; pitched at Padres' alternate site
- 2021: Started year at Triple-A; moved to Padres' alternate site in June after struggling with blisters; remained there to work on his delivery. Finished the year with two Double-A starts.
- 2022: Made MLB debut in April when Blake Snell got injured. July 26th: landed on IL with elbow soreness. August 2nd: traded to Nationals. Made four minor league rehab starts for the Nats.
- 2023: Exited July start with a blister; made the following one. Removed from August 16th start due to a blister; returned a week later. September 9th: season ended due to blisters.
- 2024: Avoided IL and known blister issues.
- 2025: Exited May start due to leg tightness; made his next one. August 30th: went on IL for shoulder inflammation; ended up going 16 days between starts.
The blister issues didn't seem to pop up after 2023. Gore has never undergone Tommy John surgery. His 2022 elbow soreness and his 2025 shoulder inflammation seemed minor.
So Gore's injury history is not bad, but he's been a pitcher of extremes the last two years. It's difficult to value that, but I'm sure just about every organization would like to bring him in and try to smooth things out.
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The Best Fits For Alex Bregman
Each offseason at MLBTR, we take a look at the potential markets for some of the top names in free agency. We've already taken a look at both Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette and Framber Valdez. Let's move onto star third baseman Alex Bregman, who opted out of the remaining two years and $80MM on his Red Sox contract earlier in the offseason. Bregman was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, having gotten one previously in his career, so he can be signed without any draft forfeitures.
Bregman was a free agent last winter as well, but when the market didn't produce a $200MM+ deal to his liking, he signed for three years and $120MM (with plenty of deferred money) in Boston. That contract allowed him to opt out after each season.
Early in 2025, Bregman played like an MVP candidate. Through May 23, he was hitting .299/.385/.553 with 11 home runs, 17 doubles, an 18.6% strikeout rate and a 9.7% walk rate. He suffered a quad strain that sidelined him for nearly two months, throwing a wrench into one of the hottest starts of his career.
There's a narrative that Bregman struggled down the stretch after returning from injury. That's not entirely true. For the first 130 plate appearances post-injury, Bregman picked up right where he left off. He hit .325/.408/.518 with more walks (11.5%) than strikeouts (8.5%). His bat tanked for the next three weeks (.151/.223/.215, 103 plate appearances), and Bregman then finished out the season hitting .276/.417/.414 in his final 36 trips to the batter's box. The concept of his post-injury "swoon" is largely a misnomer. Bregman was healthy for the final 11 weeks of the season and really only struggled for three of them -- the extent of those struggles was just alarming. Unsurprisingly, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said after the season that Bregman probably came back a bit earlier and wasn't playing at 100%.
On the whole, Bregman hit .273/.360/.462 (125 wRC+) with a revitalized walk rate and improved batted-ball metrics. His defense, even with an ailing quadriceps, graded out better than average. Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference peg him at 3.5 WAR in only 114 games. There’s a pretty easy case that Bregman is a bankable four- to five-WAR player, and while talk of veteran presence/clubhouse leadership/intangibles is often overstated, it seems genuine that front offices are captivated by his leadership skills and personality.
Bregman could have more demand than he did last winter. He's a year older now, but there's no QO attached to him and his plate discipline/approach rebounded after an uncharacteristic 6.9% walk rate and .315 OBP in 2024. Let’s run through Bregman's likeliest landing spots, based on roster composition and payroll outlook, and see if there are any viable dark horse candidates to bring him aboard.
Known/Likely Suitors (listed alphabetically)
Cubs: Pitching is the Cubs' primary focus this winter, even after Shota Imanaga accepted his qualifying offer and will now return for the 2026 season. However, the Cubs were in on Bregman last offseason and have already been linked to him again. The fit is clear. Top prospect Matt Shaw didn't solidify himself as an everyday option at the hot corner when handed the reins at the position in 2025. Shaw is still only 24 years old and did have an encouraging month following the All-Star break ... before cratering once again in his final 133 plate appearances (.220/.293/.373). Shaw hit .226/.295/.394 overall. He's still a promising young player, but promising young players don't always become solid big leaguers.
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The Best Fits For Framber Valdez
Each offseason at MLBTR, we take a look at the potential markets for some of the top names in free agency. We've already covered the two best free agent hitters, Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette. With Dylan Cease off the board on what is likely to be the biggest pitching contract of the winter, we'll look at the market for the best left-hander: Framber Valdez.
Valdez has been one of the most durable and consistent pitchers in the sport over the past six seasons. This year's 3.66 earned run average was his highest since he established himself as a starter with the Astros in 2020. Valdez has surpassed 175 innings in four straight seasons. He sits in the 95-96 MPH range and is capable of both missing bats and keeping the ball on the ground. Valdez doesn't have the strikeout ceiling that Cease brings to the table, but he has fanned an above-average 23-25% of opponents in four straight years. His true standout trait is a ground-ball rate that annually ranks among the sport's highest, including a huge 58.6% mark this past season.
The plus stuff from the left side and combination of whiffs and grounders makes Valdez fairly similar to Max Fried. He's not going to match the eight-year, $218MM contract that Fried commanded when he was headed into his age-31 season. Valdez, who turned 32 last month, is probably looking at a five- or six-year deal at a premium annual rate. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $150MM contract that made him our #6 free agent. He's tied with Tatsuya Imai for the second-largest predicted contracts among pitchers (behind Cease, whom we had at $189MM over seven years).
Valdez rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros, who are not expected to make much of an effort to bring him back. They'll receive a compensatory pick -- specifics of which won't be determined until MLB finalizes the 2025 luxury tax calculations -- while the signing team will forfeit draft and/or international bonus pool space. That shouldn't be much of a deterrent for arguably the best immediate rotation upgrade available.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon everyone, hope you're well!
- There's a lot already queued up so apologies in advance for anything I can't cover. Let's get rolling
Black and Gold Bleeder
- Do the Pirates have a reasonable shot at either Suarez or Okamoto?? They need power from the third base position before anything else.
Anthony Franco
- Yeah it seems like either of those should be viable with their current spending posture, especially if Geno ends up at two years. Not sure how a low-OBP righty bat would play at PNC but agree that third base is a need and they should be after offense wherever they can get it
Giants fan
- As a giants fan im confused on the direction they should go. Signing a pitchers to longterm contracts doesn't seem to be the giants course. The giants have money to spend a knowledgeable fan base too. 10 outfielders on the roster not enough infield depth. The giants as mentioned in your trade rumors comments today lists a solid core of young pitchers but lacking experience. Trades are possible. Please give your thoughts.
Anthony Franco
- Well I think they should sign Kyle Tucker but that's an ownership question more than a front office one. If they're limited to the Gallen/King tier in free agency (I'd prefer the latter for any team), then they're probably leveraging some of those upper level starters for an outfielder
- Nootbaar's available and Cardinals are targeting high level starters. I wouldn't give up Roupp for Noot but if STL likes Whisenhunt or McDonald, maybe that gets the ball rolling
- Similar logic with Ketel (Roupp/Birdsong should be on the table there), but I have a tough time seeing Arizona moving him at all -- much less in division
Mariners
- What/who do you think makes the first major move at the meetings? What team/free agent? Is it a trade or a signing?
Anthony Franco
- Based on my annual last place finishes in the Top 50 contest, I recommend ignoring any of my predictions
- But give me Framber to Baltimore
David
- Stearns says he wants to prioritize defense this off-season which he proved with the Semien trade. However there is always talk of moving Vientos to first which would probably be a drop from Alonso since he’s never played there. What do you think the Mets will do at 1B if they don’t resign Pete to bolster the defense
Anthony Franco
- Disagree a little with the premise, not like Pete's an elite defender there either. I think having Vientos log any meaningful time at 3B would cut against the infield defense priority, so the question is whether they think he'll bounce back enough at the plate to warrant 1B/DH time or whether it's time to move on entirely
- If the goal is solely to upgrade the defense, they'd probably be best off signing Bregman and moving Baty to first. I think that's too far in the other direction and still expect them to get something done with Alonso personally
Gonzo for Gonzo
- Thoughts on the Pirates-Red Sox deal? Losing the best nickname in baseball and a RH OF plus having to dump Criswell seems like a steep price for the Sox, they must believe they can unlock something with Oviedo. Makes lots of sense for Pirates if the Password can hit at the MLB level.
Anthony Franco
- Yeah I like it more for Pittsburgh but I'm not super enamored with either player, so I get the logic on both sides
- Oviedo's probably the seventh-best starter that Pittsburgh had. They ran out Tommy Pham and Alexander Canario in LF for most of last season. I'm concerned about Garcia's approach and still think they should be in the outfield market, but he has minor league options and enough promise (power, youth, upper minors track record) that he's a guy they should absolutely be willing to roll the dice on
- Wasn't going to have the opportunity for everyday reps that he'd need to develop the approach, so I'm fine with Boston moving on. Would've expected them to do better than Oviedo, but Tim Dierkes's immediate response was "not sure why Garcia is considered a Top 100 prospect, but I'll leave that to the experts" and I tend to agree
- I don't think Oviedo's more than a five-and-dive starter unless the Sox can teach him a splitter or something, but he'd be more interesting to me out of the bullpen so maybe he becomes a surprise relief weapon in the playoffs
Matt
- How about Brandon Lowe for one of Roupp/Birdsong?
Anthony Franco
- More than I'd give up for one year of Lowe
- Like the player and fit in SF though
DodgerFan
- Seeing the initial reports that Teoscar Hernández was being discussed on the trade market didn’t sit well with me, but after thinking it over, I can understand why the Dodgers might explore it. Two-part question:
- What kind of return could the Dodgers realistically get for Teo, and would they be able to move his full contract?
- Do you view Bader as a legitimate fit for an everyday center-field role, or is it more likely they fill that spot internally (Edman, Kim, Pages)?
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