Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! Hope the weekend treated everyone well. I'll get started at about 2pm CT (give or take a minute or two), but feel free to start asking questions in advance, as always.
- Greetings! Let's begin
cambo
- How do you see the Rockies 1st base gig shaping up all season?
Steve Adams
- I assume you're going to see at least four guys with 20+ starts there: Edouard Julien, Troy Johnston, Blaine Crim and TJ Rumfield. Charlie Condon could be an option later in the year, too. I'll go with Julien as the 1B leader among the guys listed here, with Rumfield in second. Julien can't be optioned and is a poor 2B defender, so I think they'll just stick him at 1B if he hits at all.
Bill G
- Prediction Time: Why is it easier to predict who will come in last in each division than it is those who will come in first?
Steve Adams
- A bad team is only going to get worse due to injuries. Tougher to tell which good team(s) are going to fall victim to that randomness. Plus, most truly bad/last-place teams don't have a lot of depth or good farm systems on which to draw (which is part of why they're predicted last in the first place).
Stealing Home
- I've been listening to fantasy podcasts and one thing I don't understand is the love for Cory Seager and the fear for Trevor Story. Can you explain this? CBS actually went as far as to say even if you only get 3/4 of a season out of Seager it's better than most SS behind him over a full season, where Story landed on their dud list. I know both have great talent, roughly the same age and have been injury prone in their careers, but are they forgetting the great fantasy season Story had? Very similar to Lindor but he's being drafted 10 rounds later. To be fair Seager is being drafted around where Story is. If I knew both would stay healthy, I would be hard pressed to pick one over the other.
Steve Adams
- Story's season last year was both the first time he's taken 400 plate appearances AND the first time he's reached 20 HR or 20 SB since 2021. Last year feels like a ceiling year for Story, who's 33 years old and has the type of K-BB profile that's inherently going to leave him with a much lower floor than someone like Seager.Seager has his own durability concerns, but he's a perennial monster in the batter's box. He strikes out way less, walks way more, hits the ball harder and generally does everything better than Story. He's more than a year younger, too.
- The only way I'd ever take Story over Seager would be if you told me Seager was only going to play 70 games and Story would play 150. Even then, I'd be tempted to take Seager and just piece SS together (or fiendishly use that crystal ball outlook to trade him after 67 games, haha)
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Which Top Prospects Could Be On 2026 Opening Day Rosters?
In the not-too-distant past, it was relatively rare for organizations to break camp with their very best prospects on the roster. It still happened at times, but MLB's service time structure was set up such that keeping a top prospect in the minors for even two weeks to begin the season effectively ensured that he'd be controllable for seven years rather than the standard six. There were obvious exceptions to this thinking -- Atlanta fans surely remember Jason Heyward breaking camp as a 20-year-old and belting a three-run homer on Opening Day -- but there were far more cases of keeping a player in the minors to buy the extra year. Kris Bryant, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and others were all called to the majors just when they'd spent enough time in the minors to give their clubs an extra year of control. There was nothing inherently nefarious about the gambit; teams were operating within the collectively bargained rules and making business decisions.
The 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement sought to implement some real incentives for teams to bring their best players north to begin the season, however, and by and large they've been effective. With the Prospect Promotion Incentives (PPI), any prospect who appears on two recognized top-100 lists and is called up early enough to earn a full service year can net his team a bonus draft pick, either in that season's Rookie of the Year voting or in MVP/Cy Young voting over the next three seasons.
There's also a disincentive to holding a player down. For those same qualified top prospects, a top-two finish in either league's Rookie of the Year voting will net a full year of major league service time, regardless of when they were called up. Said prospects still have around 90% of a season in such instances, which is more than enough time to turn in a ROY-worthy performance.
Teams now know that holding a player down for 15 days or so might lead to him getting a full year of service anyhow and comes with the disadvantage of rendering that player ineligible for future PPI picks. As such, it's become increasingly common for touted prospects to break camp on their teams' rosters.
With that in mind, and with fewer than two weeks to go until Opening Day, it seems worth running through a slate of top prospects who could factor into their teams' Opening Day plans.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope you've all enjoyed your week!
- Less than two weeks from Opening Day! Let's get rolling
Fake Jim Bouton
- Seem to me the Yankees should start the season with Carlos Lagrange in the bullpen - why waste those bullets in the minors? Any reason not to?
Anthony Franco
- I assume they'll start him in Triple-A to try to keep open the long-term possibility that he can start but given how far the control would need to come, I'd be pretty tempted to just throw him in the MLB bullpen as well
- Some of it comes down to how you feel about Cade Winquest, I guess. Tough to carry both of those guys in lower-leverage roles, at least to start the season. Obviously Winquest would need to be offered back to St. Louis if they don't hold him, whereas Lagrange could open in the minors without occupying a 40-man spot and buy them a little more time on the Rule 5 decision
Lysol
- Do you think Casas will be productive for the sox in 2026? Or with Contreras do you think they will trade him?
Anthony Franco
- I feel like a deadline trade is ideal for everyone, needs to get healthy first before that's really an option. Nationals fit is easy with the Toboni connection but also the most sensible one since they've got nothing at first base and plenty of runway
Ben Cherrington
- Glad Tim was able to exonerate me in my inability to decision not to trade for a 3B in this week’s mailbag!
Anthony Franco
- Haha here's Tim's much lengthier breakdown on Pittsburgh's third base situation that this question is referencing
- https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/03/mlb-mailbag-pirates-shortstops-...
- I don't entirely agree with him -- would consider Abrams a pretty clear upgrade over Triolo, for instance -- but I'm also generally alright with them using Triolo as a low-end regular for a while given how many other moves they made offensively
- Will say that if the cost on Donovan was something like Barco, Termarr and Triolo (which Tim loosely floated as a comp to the package they got back from Seattle, not saying St. Louis definitely would've done it), I'd have easily jumped on that if I were the Bucs
Black and Gold
- With the Pirates starting 4 pretty much set in clay. (Skenes, Kellar, Chandler, Ashcraft) Who is the front runner for the 5th spot?
Anthony Franco
- Urquidy needs to be on the MLB roster so I imagine he's pretty well locked in there, at least for a few starts
- If he's carrying a 7.00 ERA with a bunch of homers in the middle of May, they can pull the plug and go to Barco or Harrington
Idiotic Failson
- Any chance we see a breakout from Masyn Wynn this year? He's gotten some games under his belt and used to have a 60 hit tool projection
Anthony Franco
- He's not far off being a 60 bat if you view the hit tool as putting the ball in play and hitting for average. Bigger issue is that it's not all that valuable (at least offensively) when it comes with minimal walks or power
- I do think there's a little more in there than he's shown though. He should be getting to double digit home run totals with 30 doubles annually. Approach is good enough that I'll take the over on his career 6.5% walk rate moving forward. Could see his 2024 numbers being the baseline into his mid-late 20s, which is a really good player when you're a top three defensive shortstop
- Also think some of the slugging can play up just from him being more aggressive when he's fully past the knee issue. He didn't hit any triples last year, which I have to imagine is driven largely by playing through a meniscus injury given the athlete he is. Turning a handful of doubles into triples over the course of the season can juice the slug by a few points without any change in the batter's box
Guest
- Is it my imagination or is Detroit stashing shortstops? 6 of their top 30 players are shortstops starting with McGonigle. I understand that if you play short you’re probably athletic enough to play elsewhere. Can’t play them all at short so do they trade some for pitching?
Still an A
- Does Kevin McGonigle make the Tigers opening day roster?
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Who Will Top Next Winter’s Free Agent Hitting Class?
Tarik Skubal is the overwhelming favorite to be next offseason's top free agent. The two-time defending AL Cy Young winner is probably the best pitcher on the planet. He's almost certainly not signing an extension with the Tigers. As long as he stays healthy during his walk year, Skubal should become MLB's first $400MM+ pitcher.
Clear as the top of the pitching market looks, the #1 spot in the hitting class is wide open. That's a rare position even in March. Each year at MLBTR, we publish our first power ranking of the following winter's free agent class not long after Opening Day.
Over the past five Aprils, the #1 players on our initial free agent ranking were: Corey Seager*, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker. The first four players went on to sign for more than $300MM (well above in Ohtani's and Soto's cases). Tucker had at least one $350MM offer but opted for a shorter deal at a record average annual value. It's usually very easy to identify an upcoming free class's top hitter one or more years in advance.
Since that's not the case for the 2026-27 class, there's room for debate as to which player enters the season in pole position. Their respective '26 performances will naturally play a large role in determining future contracts, but there are only a handful of players who have a real chance to land the biggest deal among next offseason's hitters. Randy Arozarena, for example, is one of the best hitters in the class, but it's safe to assume he's not commanding the biggest contract as a left fielder who'll test the market in his age-32 season. That's just not a profile that lends itself to a nine-figure deal.
Let's run through the more realistic possibilities. The full list of 2026-27 free agents is available here.
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MLB Mailbag: Pirates, Shortstops, Okamoto, Ponce
This week's mailbag gets into the Pirates' third base situation, the best shortstop of 2026, projections for Kazuma Okamoto and Cody Ponce, and thoughts on the Nationals, Cardinals, and Mets.
Don asks:
Is Isaac Paredes the Pirates' best option for a trade upgrade at third base? What might that cost be in prospects/players?
John asks:
I think the Pirates should give some serious prospects up to acquire CJ; the Bucs seem to be one bat short. What do you think? Will Jared Jones do it?
Jared Triolo is the projected starter at the hot corner for the Pirates. The 28-year-old won a utility player Gold Glove in 2024 and will play a strong third base. It's a position where a 96 wRC+ at the plate is average, and Triolo projects around 90. He was able to cut his strikeout rate last year, but hasn't really shown any power since A-ball.
Triolo is a 2-WAR guy per 650 PA. Total value-wise, he's arguably on par with offensive-minded additions Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn. It's just easier to get excited about a 30-homer bat like Lowe, even when he gives a ton of his value back as one of the worst defensive second basemen in the game. And Triolo is making near the league minimum, not eight figures.
I went into this exercise thinking Triolo would be one of the game's worst regular third basemen, but I didn't realize how bleak that landscape is. On a per 650 PA basis - which is quite generous to injury-prone "regulars" such Royce Lewis and Yoan Moncada - Triolo's 2.0 WAR projection from The Bat X ranks 18th. There's no real reason to think guys like Caleb Durbin or Nolan Arenado will out-perform Triolo this year.
Of the three players directly ahead of Triolo - so close as to be considered a wash - two of them are Alec Bohm and Paredes. They both seemed somewhat available this winter, and they make a lot more money than Triolo, but they're not clearly better.
I'd say 14 third basemen represent a clear upgrade on Triolo for 2026. Here they are along with thoughts on whether the Pirates could've acquired them:
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! Hope the weekend treated everyone well. I'll get going around 2:30pm CT, but as usual, feel free to send in questions ahead of time!
- Hey there -- just over two weeks until Opening Day! Let's get going
David
- Hi there! Is it true that an extension signed during the season doesn’t increase the AAV that year? So, if the Mets were to extend Freddy Peralta it would make financial sense, considering the tax hit, to wait till the season begins?
Steve Adams
- The timing doesn't matter -- it's the manner in which it's structured. If the Mets wanted to avoid taking on more luxury tax hits in 2026, they could keep Peralta's salary as is by adhering to the prior contract but set up the extension as a new contract. Doing so means a larger AAV and larger hits in subsequent seasons, though.Garrett Crochet's Boston deal comes to mind as a recent example of someone who went that route.
Ewitkows
- Who's the opening day 3B for the Brewers?
Steve Adams
- I just started typing a much longer reply than necessary because I somehow read that as asking who's starting at 3B for the Red Sox (Caleb Durbin!) -- apologies, ha
- For the Brewers it'll almost certainly be Rengifo. They're not displacing Turang at 2B, so you'll get Ortiz at SS for the glove and Rengiffo at 3B after they signed him to the big league deal
Lefty
- Giants lack of proven bullpen commodities is a given. But you never know with relievers. If their patchwork collection of unheralded prospects (Harris, Bednar), non roster FA's (Santos, Fulmer), and mediocre returning arms (Walker, Butto etc) can surprise and be a middle-of-the-pack bullpen, are the Giants a solid wild card candidate?
Steve Adams
- It doesn't take a ton to be in Wild Card contention midseason, so i think they can hang within arm's reach. But even beyond the bullpen -- which is bad and a major concern -- I think the rotation depth is just underwhelming. I didn't like the Houser/Mahle pairing at the back of the staff. It's all extremely dependent on Logan Webb continuing to stay healthy.
- Bottom third or so of the lineup and the bench look bleak, too. A lot can change for most teams if just two to three role players step up ... but the Giants feel like they'll need more than two or three surprise contributors who exceed expectations.
Emmet Sheehan
- Hi Steve do you think I have a role in the dodgers rotation. What about Roky, stone, and Ryan?
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! Hope you're all enjoying some spring and/or WBC games today. (I've got Panama/Cuba on at the moment!)We'll get started around 2pm CT, but feel free to start asking questions ahead of time, as always.
- Let's get underway!
Giolito
- Why isn't Giolito signed? Surely there's a place in the Athletics, Braves, Phillies, Padres or Astros rotations.
Stevie M
- Does Minnesota have a plan at all? The team doesn't strike fear in me. With Pablo out, should they sign Giolito? He's familiar with the Central. I don't know how effective he is anymore, but it's a thought.
Steve Adams
- I imagine Giolito went into the offseason looking for the kind of multi-year deal he might've been in line for were it not for that season-ending elbow scare, and it just wasn't there. Most clubs are probably looking at him as a one-year guy now, since the majority of offseason budgets have been spent.Especially with Profar's money being freed up, I'm surprised Atlanta hasn't signed him. He's a clear upgrade over the guys duking it out for the fifth spot (Joey Wentz, Bryce Elder, Jose Suarez), and the rest of the Braves' rotation is wrought with injury risk.
- All of that applies to Zack Littell, too.
- (Well, not the part about the elbow scare)
- Twins, too, make an easy and obvious fit for either Giolito or Littell. They've lost Lopez. Festa's shoulder is flaring up. Ryan already had a minor back thing. And the Pohlad du jour there, Tom, has spoken openly about wanting to be aggressive since stepping into the executive chair position
- With the other teams listed for Gio... he probably doesn't want a short-term deal to pitch in a hitter-friendly minor league park (A's), and he'd cost the Phillies more than double because of the luxury tax. Padres don't seem to have any money left (hence the cheap nature of all their late signings).Astros, I just disagree that they need him. Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows ... that's a pretty decent top four, and they have Ryan Weiss, Lance McCullers, Spencer Arrighetti, AJ Blubaugh, Colton Gordon and Miguel Ullola as options at the back of the rotation. Their owner, Jim Crane, also doesn't want to pay the luxury tax -- and they're about $10MM shy of it right now.
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Where Can The Orioles Find A Ryan Mountcastle Trade?
The Orioles' decision to tender Ryan Mountcastle an arbitration contract was surprising in November. The already odd fit became all the more so when the O's signed Pete Alonso to a five-year deal at the Winter Meetings. Mountcastle hasn't had a real path to playing time since that signing, yet he remains on Baltimore's roster.
An initial out would have been for the O's to proceed to an arbitration hearing, then release Mountcastle during Spring Training. Arbitration salaries that are determined at a hearing aren't fully guaranteed until Opening Day (whether the player wins or loses). Teams can release those players during Spring Training for 30 or 45 days termination pay, depending on when they make that move.
It wouldn't have been an ideal sequence to drop Mountcastle for a little over $1MM, but that situation isn't without precedent. The Giants' decision to release J.D. Davis in Spring Training two years ago was motivated by the Matt Chapman signing, which didn't take place until after they'd tendered Davis an arbitration contract.
It appears that Mountcastle's camp learned from the Davis situation. Arbitration hearing salaries aren't fully guaranteed during the spring, but settlements are locked in at the time of signing. Mountcastle and the Orioles reached a settlement in the middle of January on a $6.787MM deal for 2026, with a $7.5MM club option for the '27 season. Mountcastle's '26 salary is an exact match for what he earned last year.
That's a savvy move by his representatives, who were clearly aware of the termination pay possibility. Arbitration salaries essentially never decrease year over year, so the $6.787MM number would have been the floor had he gone to a hearing, but it wouldn't have been locked in until Opening Day. By settling, he ensured that money is fully guaranteed. In exchange, the Orioles picked up the club option that gives them control over a potential free agent year. They did something similar with Ryan O'Hearn a couple seasons ago and were rewarded when O'Hearn played well enough to make an $8MM club option an absolute bargain.
None of that addresses the roster glut, though. It's frankly difficult to see a path in which Mountcastle is a near-$7MM value to the Orioles in either of the next two years. Alonso basically never takes a day off, so Mountcastle is not going to get first base reps unless the Polar Bear gets injured. They're likely to divide most of the DH playing time between their two catchers and/or Tyler O'Neill.
Holding Mountcastle as a bench bat isn't ideal for anyone. It's a roster spot they'd probably rather use on a utility infielder. They'd be better off clearing the salary and leveraging it into more payroll flexibility at the deadline. The player is entering a potential walk year and should welcome an opportunity to get more at-bats than will be on the table in Baltimore.
That all makes it unsurprising that Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported in mid-February that the O's were still open to trades involving Mountcastle and Coby Mayo. There's less urgency to trade the latter, who can fill in at third base with Jordan Westburg facing an uncertain timeline due to an elbow ligament injury. Mayo also has a minor league option remaining and could be sent to Triple-A if the infield gets too cluttered. The O's don't have that luxury with Mountcastle.
Most of the trade activity is behind us, but we may yet see one or two deals involving notable players before Opening Day. Mountcastle is among the more accomplished players known to be available. He's coming off a poor season in which he hit .250/.286/.367 while missing two months with a hamstring strain. He was a slightly above-average hitter in each of his first four and a half seasons in the big leagues. Mountcastle has never been a star, but he's usually reliable for 1-2 wins above replacement. He's a career .263/.312/.438 hitter in nearly 2700 trips to the plate.
Which teams might still be in touch with O's president of baseball operations Mike Elias?
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How Could The Braves Pivot Following Another Profar Suspension?
The Braves opened camp in 2026 hoping for a full season from outfielder/designated hitter Jurickson Profar. He'd missed 80 games in 2025 following a PED suspension but was productive upon returning. With designated hitter Marcell Ozuna out the door, Profar and newly signed outfielder Mike Yastrzemski had plenty of runway to frequent playing time.
Of course, we now know that Profar isn't likely to play a single game in 2026. He's staring down yet another PED-related suspension, and the punishment for second-time offenders jumps from 80 games to 162 games. Profar and the MLBPA appear intent on appealing the ban, but there's no precedent for a suspension being completely overturned.
At best, Profar can probably hope for a slight reduction, and even instances like that are rare. Right-hander Michael Pineda saw a 2019 suspension reduced from 80 to 60 games, but only after providing sufficient evidence that the banned diuretic he took was not used as a masking agent for PEDs. Profar didn't test positive for a masking agent but rather exogenous testosterone.
Assuming Profar's season-long ban is upheld, Atlanta will have some decisions to make. The Braves are already down their shortstop and two rotation arms this spring. Ha-Seong Kim required surgery to repair a tendon in his hand after slipping on some ice in the offseason. Righties Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep both underwent elbow surgery to remove loose bodies and/or bone spurs.
The Braves are now also without Profar, who'd been in line for regular at-bats and was hoping to build off the sound .248/.358/.446 batting line (126 wRC+) he logged in 355 plate appearances upon returning from last year's suspension. The veteran switch-hitter walked at a huge 13.2% clip and only struck out in 15.8% of his plate appearances. He connected on 14 home runs, 16 doubles and a triple while contributing nine steals (in 11 tries) on the bases.
Losing Schwellenbach, Profar, Kim and Waldrep before the halfway point in spring training is a rough way to begin the season for an Atlanta club hoping for better health than in an injury-decimated 2025 campaign. If there's a silver lining for Braves fans, however, it's that Profar's suspension sends him to the restricted list and mandates that he will not be paid his $15MM salary. The Braves are not only off the hook for that $15MM -- they're also spared $3MM of associated luxury taxes they'd have paid to the league.
There's obviously no guarantee that Atlanta reinvests the full freight of the money they're now spared. The Braves could opt to lean on in-house solutions to plug their newfound roster gaps, then readdress when the trade deadline rolls around. That's a defensible strategy, though the counterpoint would be that spending some of those funds on immediate additions would bolster the team's chances of making it to late July as a contender.
Much of free agency and the trade market has been picked over, but there are some options for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos to explore with his unexpected $15MM of payroll flexibility late in the winter. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes more briefly touched on this topic in yesterday's mailbag, but let's take a look at some more possibilities.
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MLB Mailbag: Braves, Profar, White Sox, Mariners
This week's mailbag gets into Jurickson Profar's PED suspension and how the Braves might compensate for it, a potential embarrassment of infield riches for the White Sox, the Mariners' rotation depth, and much more.
Jeff asks:
Where do the go after the Profar suspension news? Who is available and what will the trade price be?
Morris asks:
Thank you again for doing a reader mailbag. I wish my question was coming under better circumstances. Let's get the Braves' elephant out of the way: Jurickson Profar.
We don't need to get into the weeds about the suspension. I'm choosing to be an optimist here, so, I'm going to be polite and talk around the situation. I see this development as lineup flexibility. The Yaz signing looks great, and I think Eli White as the primary bench and LHH platoon-bat is not as bad as some might worry.
But it's also payroll flexibility. We just "saved" $18M in commitments and taxes for this season. How should AA allocate that money? Could we get Giolito or Littell for something around 1-year and $10M? Or is that money now dry powder for a possible trade?
Lastly, should we cut Profar this coming offseason? I'm assuming he's probably done in MLB after this, but I know he'd still be owed for the 2027 part of his deal, but, if I'm AA, I'd happily eat that money to have an opening for a dependable guy who won't present this sort of clubhouse issue.
I remember finding the Braves' signing of Mike Yastrzemski a bit superfluous when it occurred in December, but the move is looking wise given Profar's suspension. Yaz's projected platoon partner looks to be Eli White.
White spent all of 2025 in the Majors, winning a utility role with the Braves out of camp. The 31-year-old tallied 271 plate appearances, getting regular duty for about a month until Ronald Acuña Jr. returned from the IL. About 35% of those PA came against lefties, against whom White managed a league average 100 wRC+ even accounting for five homers against lefties Brent Suter, Jeffrey Springs, Shota Imanaga, Colton Gordon, and Jose A. Ferrer in those 96 PA.
White logged more time in the minors in 2023 and '24. Baseball-Reference has unfortunately decided to stop providing minor league splits, so I can only tell you how White hit against lefties across all levels combined. He managed a .281/.337/.494 line against southpaws in 98 PA in 2024, and .258/.365/.581 in 74 PA in '23. So there's a little bit of data suggesting White can maybe be a decent short side platoon partner for Yastrzemski. How about outside options?
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