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Latest On Carlos Correa’s Market

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With MLB implementing a lockout yesterday, it will likely be some time until fans learn the fate of the sport’s presently unsigned free agents. Per the parameters of the lockout, teams are unable to contact players or make any transactions during this period. Touted by many as the best player on the free agent market, Carlos Correa will have his eventual contract delayed as well, though that doesn’t mean he won’t have his fair share of suitors when the lockout concludes. Prior to yesterday’s announcement, Mark Berman of Fox 26 (KRIV) tweeted a list of teams Correa’s camp has been contacted by at some point this offseason. The Astros and Yankees were teams already known to have reached out, but Berman adds the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, and Braves to the mix as well.

At first glance, some of these newly reported teams may seem like imperfect landing spots for a shortstop who will command a 9-figure salary. Then again, it’s hard to fault any big market team for performing due diligence on a high caliber player like Correa. It’s not presently known when these teams contacted Correa’s agent or how serious these check-ins were, but any team even passingly reported as having communications with Correa’s camp could clue fans into where the star shortstop will end up signing.

Starting alphabetically with one of the more curious fits, Atlanta concluded it’s pennant-winning season with Dansby Swanson entrenched at the shortstop position. While Swanson didn’t quite replicate his production from 2020, he did pop a personal-best 27 home runs and provided defense that was generally regarded as passable or better. The 27-year-old will enter 2022 under his last year of team control, however, perhaps creating a scenario where Correa is signed and Swanson is peddled to a team still in search of a new shortstop. Any movement from Atlanta on the Correa market would likely come after there’s resolution (or, in order to afford Correa, a breakdown) on the Freddie Freeman front.

Boston ended 2021 with a prominent name at shortstop as well, Xander Bogaerts. The 29-year-old Bogaerts continues to rate as one of the league’s more consistent run producers, winnning his fourth Silver Slugger award after a .295/.370/.493 (127 OPS+) showing. Like Swanson in Atlanta, Bogaerts may find himself in his last year of team control if he opts out of the remaining three years on his contract like he is widely expected to do. A Correa pursuit would require some infield shuffling, but would make for an imposing addition to an already strong Red Sox lineup. It would also provide cover for a Bogaerts departure while drastically increasing infield defense.

Chicago has less standing in the way of a Correa run than the previous two teams, as they have the payroll space and an acute need for more offense. Nico Hoerner projects as the current Cubs shortstop following the midseason Javier Baez trade, and to his credit he acquitted himself well to the position. As solid as the former first-rounder was through 44 games though, batting .302/.382/.369 (105 OPS+), he’s only a year removed from a 57 OPS+ showing in a similar amount of games. Hoerner is also defensively adept enough that he could slide to any number of other positions to make room for the more powerful Correa. It remains to be seen if the Cubs are willing to spend additional funds to inch back towards competitiveness or if the Marcus Stroman signing will be their signature offseason acquisition.

Lastly, LA serves as an intriguing landing spot for the All-Star Correa. Like other teams here, the Dodgers have a strong shortstop already in place— Trea Turner. The speedy Turner though can play second base, allowing second basemen Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux to operate in the utility-type roles in which they’ve grown accustomed. One question for the Dodgers front office, however, is if they’d be willing to spend upwards of $300MM on a shortstop when they just let their last superstar shortstop leave for a similarly rich contract. There’s also the 4-year-old elephant in the room, the 2017 World Series in which Correa’s Astros infamously defeated the Dodgers. It’s unlikely any still-lingering weirdness would tank mutual interest (money tends to do the most talking in free agency, after all), but it could serve as a dealbreaker in the event another team were to pursue Correa with the same amount of fervor.

Dodgers Designate Sheldon Neuse For Assignment

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The Dodgers are designating infielder Sheldon Neuse for assignment, tweets Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic. The move clears 40-man roster space for Chris Taylor, whose previously-reported four-year deal has been made official.

The 26-year-old Neuse came over to the Dodgers via trade in February from the Athletics. While Neuse continued to post strong numbers in Triple-A, he struggled to find his footing at the plate while operating as a bench piece for the Dodgers. In 33 games, but just 66 plate appearances, Neuse hit .169/.182/.323 with an alarming 26 strikeouts.

The former second round draft pick will likely draw interest from other teams owing to his history of success in the upper minors, to say nothing of his versatility. Since being drafted in 2016 Neuse has played every position on the field except for catcher, center field, and pitcher. It’s not impossible Neuse returns to the Dodgers, of course, but if this is the end of his tenure in Dodger blue his LA supporters may take solace knowing the Oakland end of the trade has yet to bear much fruit either.

Dodgers Re-Sign Chris Taylor

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The Dodgers are retaining at least one of their top free agents, announcing agreement on a four-year contract with Chris Taylor. It’s reportedly a $60MM guarantee for the Meister Sports Management client that also contains a 2026 club option which could bring the value of the deal as high as $73MM.

According to reports, Taylor will be paid $15MM salaries in each of the next two seasons, followed by successive $13MM guarantees in 2024-25. He’s also guaranteed at least a $4MM buyout on the 2026 option, which is valued at $12MM. He’d receive a $2MM assignment bonus for every time he’s traded over the course of the deal. Additionally, the value of Taylor’s option season would increase by $3MM if he’s traded within the next two seasons, by $2MM if he’s traded between the end of the 2023 and the end of the 2024 campaigns, or by $1MM if he’s traded between the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2026. The option price would also escalate by $1MM if he tallies 525 plate appearances, earns an All-Star nomination or wins a Silver Slugger Award during the 2025 campaign.

Taylor’s guarantee falls a bit shy of MLBTR’s four-year, $64MM projection entering the offseason. He had hit the market as a fairly atypical free agent, having never settled into one spot on a star-studded Dodgers roster while bouncing around the diamond in a utility capacity. Despite his lack of a settled role, Taylor has gotten into the lineup on a near everyday basis, earning the organization’s trust with rare offensive punch for a utilityman.

The Dodgers acquired Taylor from the Mariners in a seemingly minor 2016 deal. That proved to be one of the more shrewd pick-ups of president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman’s tenure in L.A., though, as Taylor has been a highly productive player essentially from that moment on. The right-handed hitter has posted above-average offensive numbers (by measure of wRC+) in each of the past five seasons.

Taylor gets to that production with a strong blend of plate discipline and power. He rarely chases pitches outside the strike zone, and he’s become especially adept at drawing walks over the past few seasons. He also brings 15-20 home run power to the table despite playing in a pitcher-friendly environment in L.A. That’s helped Taylor offset higher than average strikeout rates to remain a quality offensive player.

Going back to his 2017 breakout, the Virginia native owns a .265/.343/.461 cumulative line. That’s 16 percentage points above the league average output, not far off his numbers in his platform campaign. Taylor hit .254/.344/.438 with 20 homers in 582 plate appearances in 2021, translating to a 113 wRC+ (13 points above average). He started especially hot, posting a .277/.382/.452 mark through the season’s first half en route to his first career All-Star selection.

While Taylor’s multi-year track record always looked likely to pay him handsomely this offseason, he did seem at one point as though he’d hit the market on a down note. The 31-year-old slumped to a .223/.290/.419 line over the regular season’s second half, seeing his strikeout rate spike to 33.1% in the process. But Taylor put any questions about his tough finish to rest with a monster postseason, popping four homers in 43 playoff plate appearances (including a walk-off shot in the National League Wild Card game) to help the Dodgers to the NL Championship Series.

Valuable as Taylor is offensively, he’s perhaps more well-known for his defense. Taylor has functioned as a true utility player over the years, starting games at every position other than first base and catcher. He spends the bulk of his time at the higher-value positions up the middle of the diamond, particularly at second base and in center field.

His return will give skipper Dave Roberts plenty of flexibility, and it’s likely Taylor will continue to assume that rover role now that he’s back in Dodger blue. Looking at the 2022 roster, it seems the bulk of that time could come at second base.

Taylor played very little at the keystone down the stretch after L.A. acquired Trea Turner from the Nationals at the trade deadline. With Corey Seager now in Texas, Turner looks likely to slide back to his typical shortstop position. That’d leave Taylor and Gavin Lux as the favorites for playing time at second, with either player also capable of spelling the presumptive starting outfield of AJ Pollock, Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts.

The specific breakdown of Taylor’s deal has yet to be reported, but the $15MM average annual value is the meaningful figure from a competitive balance tax perspective. Luxury tax calculations are based on deals’ AAV’s as opposed to actual payouts structures. After accounting for the Taylor deal, the Dodgers’ 2022 CBT number sits around $231MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’d have handily exceeded the $210MM first threshold in 2021, although it’s impossible to know precisely where the CBT markers will land in the next collective bargaining agreement.

The Taylor signing also has an indirect effect on the Dodgers’ 2022 draft. He’d received and rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer at the outset of the offseason. The Dodgers won’t directly forfeit a pick for re-signing their own free agent, but they are bypassing the pick they’d have received had they allowed Taylor to sign elsewhere. That’s a small price to pay for a player of Taylor’s caliber, though, particularly for the Dodgers. Because they exceeded the CBT threshold in 2021, they’d have only stood to recoup a pick after the fourth round had they allowed Taylor to walk.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Dodgers and Taylor were making progress on an agreement. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the sides had reached an agreement, as well as first with the contract terms. The Associated Press reported the specific breakdown of terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rangers Sign Corey Seager

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The Rangers’ huge offseason continues, as Texas has agreed to terms with free agent shortstop Corey Seager on a ten-year deal, the team announced today. According to various reports, it’s a massive $325MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client. He’ll reportedly receive a $5MM signing bonus and a $32.5MM salary in 2022. Seager will make $35MM in 2023, $34.5MM in 2024 and $32MM in 2025 before settling in at $31MM annually from 2026-31 as part of the front-loaded pact. The deal also contains limited no-trade protection but does not feature any opt-out clauses.

It’s the Rangers’ second big-ticket free agent infield pickup of the offseason, as they also agreed to terms with Marcus Semien on a seven-year, $175MM deal. The Rangers announced Semien’s signing at the same press conference. Huge as the Rangers’ investment in Semien is, the Seager deal is on a whole other level. The $325MM guarantee will tie Giancarlo Stanton’s November 2014 extension for the sixth-highest sum in MLB history (and Stanton’s was distributed over a thirteen-year term). The $32.5MM average annual value checks in eleventh all-time.

It’s an incredible investment, although that’s a testament to Seager’s blend of productivity and youth. He’ll turn 28 years old next April, making him one of the younger options available in free agency. More importantly, Seager’s one of the game’s best players — a middle-of-the-order lineup presence capable of playing shortstop. A former first-round pick and top prospect, he’s more than lived up to lofty expectations.

Seager has been an above-average bat in every season of his career, and he’s been far better than most at the plate for the bulk of that time. By measure of wRC+, he’s been at least 27 percentage points above the league average in four of his five seasons with 200+ plate appearances. Seager has been especially productive over the past two years, combining for a .306/.381/.545 line over 641 regular season trips to the plate since the start of 2020. That’s the eighth-best offensive production leaguewide (minimum 500 plate appearances) and that’s before considering Seager’s huge showing in the 2020 postseason. He was perhaps the single greatest driver of the Dodgers’ World Series run that year, winning NLCS and World Series MVP honors after popping seven homers over 57 combined plate appearances between the two rounds.

Those great bottom line results are supported by Seager’s underlying metrics. He has never struck out at a higher-than-average rate in a season, and he rarely chases pitches outside the strike zone. Seager’s 11.7% walk rate in 2021 was the highest of his career, around three percentage points better than the league mark. The left-handed hitter pairs that plate discipline with high-end raw power, consistently rating well above-average in terms of average exit velocity, hard contact rate and barrel rate (essentially how often a hitter makes hard contact at the optimal angles for power).

Any player with Seager’s offensive acumen would be in high demand, but that kind of production is particularly impressive from a shortstop. Aside from a brief stint at third base in his 2015 rookie season, Seager has exclusively played the infield’s most demanding position. Advanced defensive metrics have been mixed on his work. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him just a touch below-average in each of the past few seasons; Statcast’s Outs Above Average rated Seager fairly well in 2019 and 2020 but pegged him as a fair bit below par in 2021.

Those metrics seem to align with the general understanding of Seager’s defense. He’s a competent if unexceptional shortstop, unlikely to either win a Gold Glove nor immediately have to move off the position. His 6’4″, 215-pound frame has led to some speculation he might kick over to third base at some point down the line, but it’s likely the Rangers envision him as a franchise shortstop for at least the next few seasons. Even if Seager eventually has to assume a less demanding defensive role, he should be more than capable of living up to the higher offensive demands of positions further down the defensive spectrum.

While there’s not much to nitpick about Seager as a player, he has dealt with a couple of significant injuries over the past few seasons. He missed the bulk of the 2018 campaign recovering from a UCL sprain that required Tommy John surgery. This past season, he suffered a right hand fracture on a hit-by-pitch that cost him two months. Seager absolutely mashed at a .335/.417/.592 clip upon returning from that most recent issue, though, likely assuaging any fears on the part of teams about his current level of health.

Seager now becomes the centerpiece of an incredible offseason for the Rangers and their fanbase. Texas brass has hinted at the potential for an active winter for months, but it wasn’t until a few weeks ago it became clear ownership might sign off on an historic spending spree. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported earlier this month that the Rangers could add $100MM to their 2022 books alone, and between the recent deals for Seager, Semien, starter Jon Gray (four years, $56MM) and corner outfielder Kole Calhoun (one year, $5.2MM), they’ve added around $76.7MM to next year’s payroll within the past 36 hours alone.

That’s in part due to the wide open payroll outlook the Rangers carried into the winter. José Leclerc ($5.25MM) is the only other player with guaranteed money on the books for 2022; Seager, Semien and Gray are the club’s only long-term commitments. Active as they’ve been, it’s certainly possible the Rangers aren’t done yet. Texas currently has around $125MM in 2022 player expenditures, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. (That assumes the Seager, Semien and Gray deals are paid out relatively evenly; specific contract terms on each have yet to be reported). For a franchise that spent around $160-165MM on players in both 2016 and 2017, there could still be more funds in reserve.

Regardless of what’s to come, the past two days have marked an incredible turnaround for a franchise coming off three last-place finishes in the past four years. That’s not to say the Rangers are certain to contend in 2022. The roster still has plenty of holes, particularly in the starting rotation. Still, installing Seager and Semien into the middle infield and Gray near the top of the rotation locks in some certainty at key areas of the roster.

At the very least, the 2022 Rangers should be far better than the 60-102 team they trotted out in 2021. And Semien, Seager and Gray will all be key pieces of a club that could legitimately contend in 2023 — particularly if top third base prospect Josh Jung hits the ground running as an above-average player alongside their star middle infield.

Until Jung’s arrival, Isiah Kiner-Falefa looks likely to kick back over to third base. The 26-year-old broke in as a third baseman but acclimated well upon a move up the defensive spectrum to shortstop this past season. While the Rangers likely didn’t see displacing Kiner-Falefa as a must, the opportunity to add two members of this offseason’s stacked shortstop class ultimately proved too tempting to pass up. Semien, meanwhile, looks likely to stay at second base, where he spent the 2021 season with the Blue Jays after a lengthy run as the A’s shortstop.

The Rangers already forfeited their second-highest 2022 draft choice and gave up $500K in international bonus pool space to sign Semien, who rejected a qualifying offer from Toronto. They’ll lose another pick to sign Seager, who declined a QO from the Dodgers. Signing multiple qualified free agents in the same offseason actually makes some amount of sense, though.

Under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement, teams that sign multiple qualified free agents pay a diminishing penalty. A team that already forfeited its second-highest pick on one qualified player (like the Rangers) lose their third-highest pick to sign another qualified free agent. That’s less costly than the second-highest pick other clubs in the Rangers’ revenue bucket would have had to forfeit to land Seager, a small benefit for teams concentrating their big free agent investments in the same offseason.

The primary appeal, though, is in simply adding a pair of star players to the 2022 roster. That’s the position in which the Rangers find themselves, while Seager’s former team finds itself in the opposite situation. The Dodgers have seen both Seager and Max Scherzer (who landed a record-setting three-year deal with the Mets) land elsewhere within the past few days. Los Angeles’ acquisition of Trea Turner from the Nationals at this past summer’s trade deadline gives them another All-Star caliber shortstop capable of stepping into Seager’s place.

Of course, the Dodgers aren’t likely to sit idly by for the rest of the offseason. Particularly as they battle with the Giants (and potentially Padres) in a loaded NL West, it’s likely Los Angeles will continue to explore ways to bolster a still-stacked roster. In the meantime, they’ll receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round in the 2022 draft for Seager’s departure as a team that exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021.

Seager’s signing is the latest in a transactions flurry getting in before the looming expiration of the current CBA on Wednesday night. Seager’s and Scherzer’s departures from L.A. could have a massive impact on the NL West race, while the Rangers’ run of big-ticket acquisitions and the Mariners’ agreement on a nine-figure deal with Robbie Ray will have reverberations in the AL West for years to come.

Finally, Seager’s deal becomes a key data point for the rest of the free agent shortstops remaining, particularly Carlos Correa. While Seager and Correa were the clear top two names in this winter’s class, Correa is generally expected to command a loftier deal based on his superior defense at shortstop. Seager’s guarantee, however, comes in above MLBTR’s ten-year, $305MM estimate entering the winter. In light of the robust market we’ve seen in recent weeks, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Correa also tops his ten-year, $320MM projection whenever he puts pen to paper. That’s particularly true in light of the Rangers signing two of the top five shortstops. The Yankees, Phillies, Mariners and Astros are among the other clubs who could still be motivated to land a long-term infielder.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Rangers and Seager were in agreement on a ten-year, $325MM guarantee. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported the limited no-trade protection and the $5MM signing bonus, as well as the absence of any form of opt-out clause. Levi Weaver of the Athletic was first with the specific contract breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Dodgers Sign Daniel Hudson

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The Dodgers have added a late-game option to the bullpen, announcing a one-year guarantee with free agent reliever Daniel Hudson on Tuesday. It’s reportedly a $7MM guarantee for the Jet Sports Management client, which takes the form of a $6MM salary and at least a $1MM buyout on a 2023 club option valued at $6.5MM. That club option will increase by $100K increments if he finishes 30, 35, 40, 45, and 50 games in 2022, for a total of $500K in potential incentives.

It’ll be Hudson’s second stint in Dodger blue. The right-hander also spent the 2018 season with Los Angeles, tossing 46 innings of 4.11 ERA ball out of the bullpen. He’s been far better in two of the past three years, though, again attracting the attention of the Dodgers’ front office.

Hudson split the 2019 campaign between the Blue Jays and Nationals, combining for 73 frames with a 2.47 ERA. That didn’t come with nearly as impressive peripherals, but the Nats saw enough to re-sign the Virginia native to a two-year deal. Hudson didn’t pitch well during the shortened 2020 campaign, struggling with both walks and home runs en route to a 6.10 ERA.

The veteran hurler turned things around in 2021, getting off to a sterling start. Hudson made 32 appearances with Washington over the season’s first few months, pitching to a minuscule 2.20 ERA with an elite 37.8% strikeout rate and a tiny 5.5% walk percentage. That made him a desirable trade chip, and the Padres landed him a few days before the deadline.

Hudson didn’t sustain that level of success with San Diego down the stretch. He allowed 13 runs (11 earned) in 19 innings with the Friars, nearly doubling his first-half walk rate. The 34-year-old continued to miss plenty of bats, though, and it seems the Dodgers are betting that kind of swing-and-miss stuff will allow him to find more success keeping runs off the board than he did with San Diego.

Altogether, Hudson tossed 51 2/3 innings with a 3.31 ERA in 2021. His 35.7% strikeout rate and 15.7% swinging strike rate were each career-best marks, while his 97 MPH average fastball velocity tied a personal-high. There’s a chance Hudson’s high-octane arsenal allows him to thrive as a late-game option for manager Dave Roberts, although it’s critical that he continue to miss plenty of bats. Hudson’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who gives up quite a bit of hard contact when batters do the ball in play. That’s led to him surrendering 1.7 homers per nine innings pitched over the past two years, a mark that’s a fair bit worse than that of the league average bullpen arm.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Dodgers and Hudson were nearing agreement on a one-year deal worth around $7MM. The Associated Press reported the presence of the 2023 club option, as well as the specific salary breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

National League Non-Tenders: 11/30/21

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We’ve now passed the deadline for teams to tender contracts to pre-arb and arbitration-eligible players. We’ll keep track of the more minor players non-tendered in the National League here. The American League non-tenders are available at this link.

As a reminder, you can view MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players here:

  • The Cardinals announced they’ve non-tendered utilityman José Rondon. The right-handed hitting infielder tallied 90 plate appearances this past season while suiting up at a handful of position.
  • The Giants announced they’ve non-tendered outfielder Luis González, right-hander Sam Delaplane and southpaw Joe Palumbo. None of that trio was arbitration-eligible, and all three were recently acquired via minor transactions. It wouldn’t be a surprise if San Francisco attempts to work out minor league pacts with one or more of that group now that they’ve been removed from the 40-man roster.
  • The Phillies have non-tendered southpaw Kyle Dohy and re-signed him to a minor league contract, per a team announcement. He’ll remain in the organization but no longer occupies a spot on the 40-man roster. Dohy made on major league appearance in 2021.
  • The Padres announced they’ve non-tendered relievers José Castillo, Trey Wingenter, and Matt Strahm. Castillo and Wingenter haven’t pitched since 2019 because of arm injuries that necessitated Tommy John surgeries. Strahm was limited to just 6 2/3 frames in 2021 by health issues himself.
  • The Cubs are non-tendering reliever Jason Adam, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The southpaw missed much of the season after suffering a gruesome ankle fracture in Triple-A in May, but he made a triumphant late-season return to the big leagues. Adam ultimately tossed 10 2/3 innings over 12 outings. Chicago also announced they’ve non-tendered outfielder Michael Hermosillo, who made a late-season appearance on the big league roster.
  • The Mets have non-tendered outfielder Mark Payton, per a club announcement. The left-handed hitter was acquired from the Reds midseason but never suited up for New York at the major league level.
  • The Reds have non-tendered righty Brandon Bailey, per a team announcement. The 27-year-old made five appearances with the Astros in 2020. He missed all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, the second such procedure of his career. Bailey is re-signing on a minor league deal with a Spring Training invitation but will no longer occupy a spot on the 40-man roster, reports C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic.
  • The Nationals announced three non-tenders: relievers Wander Suero and Ryne Harper and first baseman Mike Ford. Suero is the most notable of the group, having been an effective set-up option at times during his four-season run in D.C. He struggled to a 6.33 ERA across 42 2/3 innings in 2021, though.
  • The Mets have non-tendered reliever Stephen Nogosek, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (on Twitter). The right-hander made just one three-inning appearance at the big league level in 2021. He worked 35 innings of 5.14 ERA ball with Triple-A Syracuse.
  • The Diamondbacks are non-tendering reliever Taylor Clarke, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (on Twitter). The 28-year-old has pitched with the D-Backs in each of the past three seasons. The left-hander worked to a 4.98 ERA over 43 1/3 innings this past season, showing solid control but posting a 20.1% strikeout rate that was about four percentage points below the league average mark for bullpen arms.
  • The Dodgers have non-tendered southpaw Andrew Vasquez, tweets Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic. Vasquez wasn’t eligible for arbitration, but Los Angeles decided to bump him off the 40-man roster without placing him on waivers. Acquired in a minor trade with the Twins, Vasquez made two appearances for the Dodgers in early September. The 28-year-old struck out a massive 37.4% of batters faced in Triple-A in 2021.
  • The Pirates have non-tendered right-hander Chad Kuhl, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link). A productive back-of-the-rotation arm at times, Kuhl has developed escalating control problems over the past couple seasons. The 29-year-old throws in the mid-90s and has posted decent strikeout numbers, but he’s coming off a 4.82 ERA/4.89 SIERA over 28 appearances (including 14 starts)
  • The Mets have non-tendered reliever Robert Gsellman, reports Tim Healey of Newsday (on Twitter). The right-hander has appeared with New York in each of the past six seasons, moving to the bullpen full-time in 2018. While Gsellman showed quite a bit of promise over seven starts as a rookie, he’s yet to find much consistent success in the years since. The 28-year-old did manage a solid 3.77 ERA with a 49.5% ground-ball rate over 28 2/3 innings in 2021, but he also missed a couple months because of a lat strain and only punched out 14.3% of batters faced.

Yankees, Blue Jays Among Teams With Interest In Freddie Freeman

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2020 NL MVP Freddie Freeman is one of the top free agents on the market this winter, and he’s unsurprisingly drawing interest from a few of the game’s higher-spending organizations. The Yankees and Blue Jays are among the teams to have reached out to the five-time All-Star, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link).

Many around the industry expect Freeman will eventually re-sign with the Braves. The star first baseman has been a member of the organization for nearly a decade and a half, and it’d be a bitter pill for the fanbase to swallow if Freeman departs on the heels of Atlanta’s first World Series title since 1995. No deal has yet gotten done, though, with the Braves’ reluctance to offer a sixth guaranteed year reportedly the hold-up in talks so far. Heyman adds that Freeman had been seeking a guarantee in the $180MM range. Entering the offseason, MLBTR indeed projected a six-year, $180MM pact for the three-time Silver Slugger award winner.

It’s certainly not out of the question Freeman and the Braves will eventually bridge their gap. Heyman notes that some other organizations in pursuit are still skeptical about the possibility the 32-year-old leaves Atlanta. There’s no harm for clubs to reach out to Freeman’s representatives at Excel Sports Management in case the Braves aren’t willing to meet his ultimate ask, though.

Were Freeman to seriously entertain the possibility of leaving Atlanta, it stands to reason other clubs would get involved. Both Heyman and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic have floated the possibility of the Dodgers making a run at the Southern California native. Los Angeles has already lost Corey Seager and could see Chris Taylor also depart. Signing Freeman while bumping Max Muncy over from first to second base would go a long way towards replacing the offensive production they’ve lost this winter.

Broadly speaking, any big-market team could poke around the Freeman market. The Jays have no need for a first baseman, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. looking to have made the jump to perennial MVP candidate. Toronto could free up at-bats at designated hitter to accommodate Freeman, though, and other high-spending clubs could similarly move incumbent pieces around to make a signing work. Freeman is one of the game’s most consistently productive hitters, having been at least 32 percentage points better than average at the plate (by measure of wRC+) in each season since 2013.

Chris Taylor Drawing Widespread Interest

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Super utility player Chris Taylor is drawing interest from various teams and could sign in the coming days, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links). He lists the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Angels and Nationals as teams that have been in recent contact with Taylor’s camp. The current CBA expires at 11:59pm ET on Wednesday, December 1, leading to a frenzy of transactions in recent days as teams are trying to tick items of their to-do lists before the lockout and transaction freeze that are expected to follow. Morosi says that Taylor could sign by Wednesday, potentially getting in just under the wire.

The fact that various teams are interested in Taylor’s services is no surprise, given his extreme defensive versatility. Over his career, Taylor has spent time at every position on the diamond except for catcher, pitcher and first base. In 2021, he appeared in at least eight games at six different positions, and more than 23 games at four different spots. He’s also been an above-average contributor on the offensive side of the game for five consecutive seasons now, by measure of wRC+. Over those five years, he has hit 78 home runs, stolen 50 bases and hit .265/.343/.461 for a wRC+ of 116. The combination of those factors makes it hard to imagine a team that wouldn’t be upgraded by adding Taylor to supplant the least-productive non-catcher in their lineup and slotting him into whatever position they happen to play.

Taking all this under consideration, as well as the fact that Taylor rejected a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, MLBTR predicted Taylor could earn himself a contract of four years and $64MM, AAV of $16MM. However, the free agent market has been quite robust so far, with the majority of players outearning their projections as teams seem to be rushing to get business done before this week’s expected lockout and subsequent transaction freeze. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Taylor, 31, surpass that estimate, either in length or dollars.

The Dodgers are a fairly logical suitor, given that they’ve been utilizing Taylor’s skills for the past five-plus seasons. Although they still have one more season of Trea Turner, whom they acquired at the trade deadline, they’ve also just seen Corey Seager sign on with the Texas Rangers. At the moment, Gavin Lux would probably be pencilled in as the second baseman, but he also has positional versatility and could be bumped into a bench/utility role. In the outfield, Mookie Betts and AJ Pollock should have two spots accounted for, with Cody Bellinger likely taking up a third. But after Bellinger’s miserable 2021 campaign, adding Taylor could provide some insurance in case he can’t bounce back to his MVP-winning form from a couple years ago.

Just like the Dodgers, the Blue Jays have also just watched one of their best players depart for Texas, as Marcus Semien is now a Ranger as well. Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have two infield spots spoken for, with Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal and Breyvic Valera on hand as options for second or third base. Taylor could potentially take Semien’s spot and bump everyone else down on the depth chart.

The Mariners have already brought Adam Frazier into their infield mix this week, but seem determined to add more. Morosi lists Taylor, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez as infielders they are considering. Baez has since reportedly signed with the Tigers, but Taylor and Bryant both make sense as potential adds at third base, with Abraham Toro then platooning with Frazier at second. Taylor also started his career in Seattle before moving to the Dodgers, which would make for a nice homecoming story. The club has been aggressive in trying to build on a strong 2021 campaign, having also added Robbie Ray in recent days.

Just like Seattle, their division rivals in Anaheim have also been active in gearing up for 2022. They’ve added pitchers Noah Syndergaard, Michael Lorenzen and Aaron Loup, as well as acquiring infielder Tyler Wade from the Yankees. Taylor would be an upgrade over Wade or David Fletcher for the middle infield, as well as providing insurance for an outfield with a few unproven options, as youngsters Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell have shown promise but haven’t locked down jobs just yet.

The Nationals winning the bidding would be a surprise, given that they underwent a huge fire sale at the trade deadline and have been fairly inactive so far this offseason. But they seem determined to avoid a lengthy rebuild and will be aiming to return to contention while they still have the elite production of Juan Soto, whom they control for three more seasons. Other than Soto and Josh Bell, there’s almost no certainty in the team’s lineup, making it very easy for Taylor to be slotted in.

There’s one team that’s apparently not in the mix, however, as Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Red Sox don’t seem to be heavily involved.

Rangers Making Push For Corey Seager

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The Rangers have already agreed to terms with one of the five big free-agent shortstops, hammering out a seven-year, $175MM deal with Marcus Semien. They’re reportedly still in the market for another infield upgrade, however, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that they’re making a “big push” to sign Corey Seager.

Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported last night (Twitter links) that the Rangers were in play for Seager even after agreeing to the Semien deal, with Sherman adding that Seager is hopeful he’ll choose a new club today. And Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote earlier today that the Rangers remained “very much” in the hunt for Seager as of this morning.

SNY’s Andy Martino reported this morning that both the Rangers and Dodgers were more much more involved in the Seager market than the Yankees, who aren’t believed to have been as aggressive on the 27-year-old. That meshes both with the idea of Texas still being a serious player for Seager and with recent reports suggesting that the Yanks might not sign any of the big-name free agent this winter.

It’s far from clear that Seager’s market is a two-horse race between the Dodgers and Rangers at this point. That said, both parties can certainly afford to sign Seager long-term, and the Dodgers did just tap out during the bidding for ace Max Scherzer, who’s headed to the Mets on a record-setting three-year contract. Seager, like Scherzer (and Semien), is represented by the Boras Corporation, so it’s perhaps possible now that with Scherzer and Semien resolved, the focus will turn to finding a landing spot for Seager.

Seager rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer from the Dodgers at season’s end and is widely expected to cash in on a contract that spans upwards of a decade in length. The former first-round pick and NL Rookie of the Year has posted a combined .306/.381/.545 batting line with 31 homers through his past 147 games/641 plate appearances.

While the Rangers already have Semien in tow and have another capable defensive shortstop in Isiah Kiner-Falefa, the defensive flexibility both Semien and Kiner-Falefa bring to the table allows Texas to be rather nimble in its offseason pursuits. Seager could conceivably play either shortstop or third base, while both Kiner-Falefa and Semien can handle any of third, short or second base. Signing Seager would headline what’s been a highly aggressive offseason thus far for a Rangers club that has not only signed Semien but also agreed to deals with righty Jon Gray (four years, $56MM) and outfielder Kole Calhoun (one year, $5.2MM).

Mets May Be Favorite For Max Scherzer

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9:47PM: The Dodgers remain in the mix for Scherzer but are “not the favorites at the moment,” as per Jorge Castillo of The Los Angeles Times.  Indeed, there are “growing indications” that the Mets will sign Scherzer, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, with the New York Post’s Joel Sherman adding that Scherzer and the Mets have made progress towards an agreement.

8:47PM: The Mets have offered Scherzer a multi-year contract, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, that could be a three-year, $120MM pact.

7:16PM: The Mets’ offer to Scherzer has an average annual value of more than $40MM, according to Martino, but the length of the offer isn’t known.  This would represent the largest AAV for any player in baseball history.

6:58PM: The Dodgers “are perceived as the favorite” to sign Scherzer, Heyman tweets.  However, the “Mets’ full attention at [the] moment” is directed at Scherzer.  If Scherzer does sign elsewhere, New York will likely turn its attention towards Gausman as the backup plan.  SNY’s Andy Martino writes that the Mets hope to have either Scherzer or Gausman signed within the next 24 hours.

11:54AM: Max Scherzer is expected to make a decision about where to play next year before the impending lockout, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Heyman lists the Dodgers, Giants, Angels and Mets as some of the teams that are under consideration.

The current Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and MLBPA expires at 11:59 pm ET on December 1, with the general expectation being that a lockout and transaction freeze will then be implemented if no new deal is in place at that time. That has led to a flurry of activity in recent weeks, as many teams, agents and players seemingly prefer to get their business done now as opposed to waiting until some undetermined date when the lockout is finished. It would appear that Scherzer is in that camp.

The starting pitching market has easily been the busiest so far this year, as Eduardo Rodriguez, Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Verlander, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha have all signed in the past two weeks, with Corey Kluber also signing today. Kevin Gausman is also reportedly planning on signing in the coming days.

Scherzer’s free agency is a very unique case, given his elite skill level and relatively older age, compared to the other top names on the free agent market. Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray, the only two hurlers ahead of Scherzer on MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents, are both currently 30 years old, whereas Scherzer turned 37 in July. But given his tremendous track record of success in his career, his prediction was for a much higher salary on an annual basis, $120MM over three years, AAV of $40MM. That would be a new high for AAV across the league, breaking Gerrit Cole’s record of $36MM. Gausman and Ray, on the other hand, were predicted to get to the vicinity of $25MM annually, but each over a longer term than Scherzer.

Scherzer already has an incredible career resume, with 14 seasons of quality work, including eight All-Star appearances, three Cy Young Awards, a World Series championship and various other accolades. In 2021, he logged 179 1/3 innings between the Nationals and Dodgers. His 2.46 ERA was the lowest of his career. His 34.1% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate were both much better than league average. In short, he would be a huge upgrade for any team in the league. But if he’s going to cost around $40MM per year, budgetary concerns will make him a better fit on some teams than others.

The Mets have already been throwing lots of money around, as they recently signed Mark Canha, Starling Marte and Eduardo Escobar. That spending spree has pushed their 2022 payroll to $225MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s already well beyond last year’s opening day payroll of $195MM, which was itself a franchise high, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. To add someone like Scherzer would require pushing their previous boundaries even further.

The Angels also ran a franchise-high payroll on opening day last year, getting up to almost $182MM, per Cot’s. For 2022, they’re currently sitting at $157MM, per Martinez, about $25MM shy of last year. Adding Scherzer would likely involve blowing past that number, as well as changing their previous avoidance of giving out contracts of any kind of length to starting pitchers. As recently explored by MLBTR’s Steve Adams, they haven’t given a starting pitcher a deal longer than one year since Joe Blanton way back in 2012, and even that was just two years.

The Giants have lots of payroll space, but also lots of holes to fill. Cot’s pegs their 2021 opening day number just shy of $150MM, but they’ve been as high as $200MM before, in 2018. They’re currently sitting around $115MM for next year, per Martinez, but still have many areas of need. Their rotation lost four members from 2021, and though they’ve since re-signed Anthony DeSclafani, they still need to replace Alex Wood, Kevin Gausman and Johnny Cueto. (It was reported a week ago that Wood was close to deal to return, though it doesn’t seem to have been finalized yet.) They could also use a right-handed outfielder, having already been connected to Starling Marte and Seiya Suzuki. It seems more likely that they would spread their budget around to multiple arms, but if they want to make a run at a huge name like Scherzer, they have a payroll situation that could make it doable.

As for the Dodgers, whom acquired Scherzer at last year’s trade deadline, their opening day payroll in 2021 was almost $248MM, per Cot’s, easily the highest such number in the league. They’re currently sitting over $205MM for next year, according to Martinez, and could welcome Scherzer back into the fold if they’re willing to spend at similar levels this year.

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