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A'sfaninUK
Can definitely see Gallardo taking a 1 year deal to sign with a team like Seattle, San Diego or Oakland so he can hit next years market and be a top 3 SP – this market this offseason is too stacked and he’s a very good pitcher when he’s on, he still has a very true #2 ceiling or even an ace. IMO the only pitcher better than him in 2016 is Strasburg, and some folks might even prefer Gallardo and his superior health record. Over the last 7 years he’s given between 180-207 IP with a 3.77 FIP and he’s 30 in 2016. I’m not sure he can get $100M this offseason, but absolutely next one he could go huge if he plays his situation right.
trkatl77
The days of Gallardo having the ceiling of an ace are long gone my friend.
Houcorrea
But a rotation of Darvish, Hamels, Holland, Gallardo, and Perez makes a lot of since for the Rangers.
bjsguess
He’s not awful on a one year deal but he’s no value either. A 3/$28 deal is reasonable for a FA contract projection. Personally, I wouldn’t touch him at anything close to that but I’m betting some fool will.
The guy is declining in all the wrong areas. There are red flags everywhere.
K-BB% peaked at 17.1% and was consistently in the 12-15% range. This year it tanked down to 6.7%. K’s down dramatically, BB’s up … that’s never a good sign.
Steamer pegs him at 1.5fWAR and that feels right to me. You are looking at a $10-12M valuation. Paying $16M for one year is steep. Paying up for multiple years is a recipe for disaster.
johnsilver
I really can’t see 10-12m LT deal. He’s a back end innings eating SP now. Think Wade Miley type, only he’s RH and the NE media thinks Miley is the one to get traded? These types are the ones every team needs, just not at QO costs, maybe half that much is it.
Great post BJS.
GoRav114
He should be offered one banking on him not accepting. If he were to accept its not the end of the world, they could trade him next season or offer him another one next year If he has a good season.
Larry D.
The worst case scenario, for the Rangers, is that Gallardo accepts the QO and they have him for another season, coming off a 4.1 WAR year. Admittedly, he’s an expensive middle (or back) of the rotation guy but it wouldn’t be a horrible outcome.
Lance
Gallardo is a 4-5 starter IMO. Yes, offer him a QO to get the draft pick. I doubt he’ll take it but on the oft chance he does, he’s still going to give you five good innings every 5th day and don’t resign Lewis.
neoncactus
Absolutely give him the QO. It’s very likely he doesn’t accept and they get the draft pick. If he does accept, he gives you a year of insurance in case Darvish has any setbacks coming back from surgery, and in case Holland continues to struggle.