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Poll: AL Cy Young Favorite

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We’re obviously not going to see a repeat Cy Young winner in the American League this year. Rays left-hander Blake Snell took home the award a season ago, but his output has fallen off somewhat since 2018, and he just returned from a several-week absence anyway. There’s another Ray, right-hander Charlie Morton, who may have a case to rack up some votes this season, but it looks as if the winner will be one of his ex-Astros teammates.

Righty aces Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander have arguably outdone every other AL pitcher this year. The numbers entering Wednesday’s action bear it out, as you’ll see below…

  • ERA – Verlander: 2.50 (first in the AL); Cole: 2.62 (second)
  • Innings: Verlander: 212 (first); Cole: 192 1/3 (fifth)
  • Strikeouts per nine: Cole: 13.66 (first); Verlander: 12.01 (second)
  • K/BB ratio: Verlander: 7.08 (first); Cole: 6.49 (second)
  • Wins – Verlander: 19 (first); Cole: 17 (second)
  • bWAR – Verlander: 7.8 (second); Cole: 6.0 (fourth)
  • fWAR – Cole: 6.5 (first); Verlander: 6.1 (tied for second)

Some of those figures have already changed tonight, as Cole is in the midst of a lights-out showing against the Rangers. As of this writing, the 29-year-old has fired six shutout innings of two-hit ball with eight strikeouts and zero walks. Cole now has exactly 300 punchouts on the season, putting him in fairly exclusive company.

Based on Cole’s enormous K total and the rest of the statistics above, it would be tough to make a case against him or Verlander. However, two other Texas-based starters – Mike Minor and Lance Lynn – have also enjoyed elite seasons. Minor ranks first in the league in pitcher bWAR, in fact, with Lynn not far behind. Despite that, the two Rangers are clearly facing long odds if they’re going to earn Cy Young honors over either of the Astros. Likewise, although Morton, Indians starter Shane Bieber and even Athletics closer Liam Hendriks have arguably placed themselves in the race with their marvelous performances, it’s improbable anyone from that trio will come out on top.

A first-time Cy Young win for Cole in 2019 would come at an especially opportune time for him, as he’s under two months from reaching free agency. Cole figures to rake in the largest contract on the open market then – perhaps a deal in excess of $200MM – and it wouldn’t exactly harm his bargaining power to collect the game’s most prestigious honor for a pitcher in the meantime. The 36-year-old Verlander has surprisingly won the Cy Young just once in what should be a Hall of Fame career. The former Tiger also grabbed the AL MVP that season (2011), and though it was eight years ago, Verlander hasn’t slowed down to any noticeable degree since.

Cole, Verlander and the rest only have a couple weeks left to make their Cy Young arguments on the mound. As things stand, which pitcher do you think is in the lead?

(Poll link for app users)

Poll: NL MVP Front-Runner

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We just polled the MLBTR readership regarding the state of the American League Most Valuable Player race. There’s a clear preference for Mike Trout, even if he’s going to miss the last few weeks of the season.

Injuries could well impact the state of the National League MVP voting as well. Not long before Trout hit the shelf, reigning NL player-of-the-year Christian Yelich went out of commission. Javier Baez might also have staked a claim with a big run down the stretch, but he has been out for a while.

Despite his recent injury, Yelich still has a great case to be made to repeat with the top honors. He’s pacing the National League with 7.7 fWAR and a 173 wRC+ while also carrying top-of-the-class counting stats (44 home runs, 30 steals).

The other top candidate is Dodgers stud Cody Bellinger, who has added value with the glove both at first base and in the outfield. He actually leads Yelich handily in rWAR, with an 8.2 to 7.1 advantage. Bellinger is also quite likely to end up with more dingers and is playing for the National League’s best team.

What of the National League’s leader in batting average, Anthony Rendon? The exceedingly quiet star has elevated his game in all respects this year; his .333/.417/.629 batting line has crept past Bellinger’s and Rendon has swatted a career-best 34 home runs. He also plays a mean third base. Oh, and if you want to place added weight on performance down the stretch, Rendon leads the pack in second-half fWAR and wRC+.

If there’s a dark horse, it’s … probably not one of the Braves’ several stars. The club has received big-time output from Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, and Josh Donaldson. But none has performed quite to the individual level of the surprising Ketel Marte, who’s the fourth National League player to carry seven or more wins above replacement by measure of Fangraphs. Marte may not quite have the stature to vault past these better-known players, particularly since more of his value is tied up in his glove, but he’s sitting on an excellent .326/.387/.589 batting line (149 wRC+) with 32 homers.

Who’s your favorite? (Poll link for app users.)

Poll: AL MVP Front-Runner

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The American League Most Valuable Player race took an unfortunate turn over the weekend when the Angels ruled transcendent center fielder Mike Trout out for the rest of the season. The out-of-contention Angels have nothing to left to play for, but the final couple weeks of the year could have helped Trout, a future Hall of Famer, bolster his MVP case. The 28-year-old has already won the award twice (arguably not enough times considering his brilliance to this point), and he looked like the favorite to take home the honors again this season before a foot injury took him down. Trout could still end up as the AL MVP, but given that he’s on a bad team and hasn’t played since Sept. 7, it’s increasingly likely a challenger will rise up and win it.

If we’re to believe Fangraphs’ version of wins above replacement, 10 American League hitters have been worth at least 5.0 fWAR this year. Trout’s easily in first place, having racked up 8.6 fWAR, while Astros third baseman Alex Bregman’s next at 7.4. Underrated Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien (6.6) is one of three players thereafter who have bettered the 6.0 mark, with Red Sox right fielder/reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts (6.3) and shortstop Xander Bogaerts (6.2) filling out the group. Beyond them, there’s Astros outfielder George Springer, A’s third baseman Matt Chapman, Red Sox third bagger Rafael Devers, Yankees utilityman DJ LeMahieu and White Sox third baseman Yoan Moncada with 5.0 fWAR.

There are also six starting pitchers in the bunch with 5.0 or more fWAR – the Astros’ Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, the Rangers’ Lance Lynn, the Rays’ Charlie Morton, the Indians’ Shane Bieber and the White Sox’s Lucas Giolito – for what it’s worth. However, it’s incredibly difficult for a pitcher to earn MVP honors. Verlander pulled it off back in 2011, but he was the first hurler since 1992 to do so. It’s improbable he or any other pitcher will accomplish the feat this year. Likewise, it’s difficult to imagine a player on a non-contender (Trout aside) earning the MVP this year. That may well rule out anyone from the two Sox-wearing teams.

By process of elimination, the MVP race might come down to Trout, Bregman, Semien, Springer (though it’s tough to see him winning when teammate Bregman has clearly been the more valuable player), Chapman (who’d likely lose votes to Semien) and LeMahieu.

Of course, it’s highly doubtful the voters will make the decision largely by the polarizing WAR stat, and understandably so. There will be plenty who place the most value on the dominance of Trout despite his team’s fecklessness. Others will give the nod to Bregman, who has been on an absolute tear in the season’s second half (the same goes for Semien, by the way). Meanwhile, LeMahieu has thrived as a multi-positional player in the game’s biggest market after joining the Yankees last offseason on what now looks like a bargain contract of two years and $24MM.

The Yankees and Astros are heading to the playoffs as elite teams, which could help their MVP contenders’ causes. The A’s are also likely on their way, so the same applies to their prospective MVPs. All said, it’ll be an interesting final couple weeks of the regular season as all of the above vie for the award. As of now, which player do you think should win?

(Poll link for app users)

Poll: Stephen Strasburg’s Opt-Out Decision

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Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg is one of a few major leaguers who will have an interesting opt-out decision to make once the offseason arrives. Strasburg will still have four years and $100MM left on the extension he signed with the Nationals in 2016 then, but he has done well in 2019 to make a case for a raise. However, there are extenuating circumstances that could prevent Strasburg from taking the gamble on entering free agency over the winter.

By now, everyone who follows baseball closely knows Strasburg’s story. He’s a former No. 1 overall pick and uber-prospect who debuted with great fanfare in 2010, has dealt with myriad injuries since then, but has largely been outstanding when healthy enough to take the mound. Now, with a potential trip to the open market looming, the 31-year-old is arguably better than ever.

While Strasburg doesn’t throw as hard as he did in his younger days, it hasn’t served as a detriment to his results. He’s at full strength now, having made 30 starts and amassed 191 innings, and has logged a 3.49 ERA/3.22 FIP with 10.79 K/9 against 2.31 BB/9. Strasburg ranks fourth among qualified starters in innings, seventh in fWAR (5.4), 16th in K/BB ratio (4.67) and 31st among all pitchers in expected weighted on-base average against (.261, which isn’t far from the .270 real wOBA hitters have registered off him). Teammate Max Scherzer rightly gets the lion’s share of attention when it comes to Nats starters, but this year’s version of Strasburg has been lights-out. Previous iterations haven’t been far off, injuries notwithstanding.

Besides Astros co-ace Gerrit Cole, it’s tough to find a better starter than Strasburg who could reach the open market in a couple months. Strasburg, if he opts out, wouldn’t approach the $200MM mark, as Cole could. But Strasburg might be able to outdo the $100MM he’d leave on the table by vacating his current deal. The Boras Corporation client would obviously be taking an enormous risk by heading to free agency, though, as the market hasn’t been enamored of 30-somethings who come with qualifying offers (as Strasburg undoubtedly would) in recent years. That said, there have been over-30 pitchers who have raked in nine figures in free agency in recent years. To name just a couple prominent examples, Zack Greinke got six years and $206.5MM from the Diamondbacks before 2016, when he was set to turn 32. The Cubs gave Yu Darvish $126MM over six years going into 2018, in which he also turned 32.

The Greinke and Darvish deals haven’t worked out swimmingly for the clubs that distributed them, as the D-backs traded a still-highly effective Greinke to the Astros a month and a half ago because they wanted his money off the books. Darvish, meanwhile, has done solid work this season (he struck out 14 in his most recent start Thursday), but 2018 wasn’t a banner year. Overall, he probably hasn’t given the Cubs the type of production they envisioned upon signing him. Those are just a couple cautionary tales that could scare teams away from giving a massive amount of money to an aging Strasburg.

For Strasburg, the recent difficulties accomplished 30-plus starters Jake Arrieta and Dallas Keuchel – both with Cy Youngs on their mantles – have encountered in free agency could scare him away from opting out. Arrieta did land a three-year, $75MM guarantee from the Phillies entering 2018, but that was far less than he sought when he hit the market. Keuchel made out way worse last offseason, sitting without a job until he accepted a one-year, $13MM offer from the Braves this past June.

Of course, it’s quite possible Strasburg could exit his contract and stay with the Nationals. Longtime Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw ended last offseason with an opt-out on the two years and $65MM remaining on his pact, but the two sides quickly struck a new agreement for three years and $93MM. Perhaps the Nationals and Strasburg will come together on a similar arrangement that tacks on another year(s) and more money. In the meantime, they and Strasburg will try to win their first World Series (or at least their first playoff series) in the next couple months. After that, his opt-out choice will be a fascinating story to follow. As of now, how do you expect things to play out?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: AL Wild Card Race

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We just gathered your latest predictions on the National League side, where there are still quite a few scenarios to consider. But the situation in the American League has gained quite a bit of clarity of late. It appears we’re looking at a potentially fascinating three-team race … with only one of those clubs ultimately getting a full divisional series.

Entering play today, the Rays half a half-game lead over the Athletics, who in turn carry another half-game advantage over the Indians. The Red Sox have fallen well out of the picture, removing one possibility for intrigue. Odds are, we’re going to see those three clubs duke it out down the stretch for position.

Okay, there is still one other realistic outcome. The Indians still have an outside chance of catching the Twins in the AL Central. And if that’s the case, then it’s also true that there’s even a possibility that the Twins will fall outside the postseason picture entirely. But even with Minnesota’s recent run of roster woes, the four-game spread gives them a stout advantage. And it’s especially improbable — so say the postseason odds estimators, at least — that the Minny faithful will be left without even a single playoff contest. Fangraphs and 538 both put the odds at less than one percent of that scenario.

Accordingly, we’ll focus on the Tampa Bay-Oakland-Cleveland low-revenue battle royale. There are any number of outrageous late-season scenarios if we end up with various sorts of ties. Regardless, it’s quite likely that only one of those organizations will be left standing when the ALDS begins.

Every minor factor matters at this stage of the season. The quality of the opposition is an especially major consideration. Here’s the remaining schedule for these three teams.

Rays

@ Rangers (1), @Angels (3), @Dodgers (2), vs. Red Sox (4), vs. Yankees (2), @ Blue Jays (3)

Athletics

@ Astros (1), @ Rangers (3), vs. Royals (3), vs. Rangers (3), @Angels (2), @Mariners (4)

Indians

vs. Twins (3), vs. Tigers (3), vs. Phillies (3), @ White Sox (3), @Nationals (3)

How do you think it’ll turn out? (Poll link for app users. Response order randomized.)

MLBTR Poll: Time For Changes In Pittsburgh?

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Tuesday brought the latest ignominious development of 2019 for Pittsburgh, a team that has gone from playoff hopeful to laughingstock in the span of a couple months. The Pirates announced that reliever Kyle Crick underwent season-ending surgery for an injury to his right index finger, which came as a result of a fight with teammate and fellow late-game hurler Felipe Vazquez. While it’s unclear how the fight began or who was truly at fault, it doesn’t really matter – the bottom line is that it’s no way for a pair of teammates to act toward one another.

Unfortunately for the Pirates, the Crick-Vazquez dust-up wasn’t the first instance of in-fighting for the club this year. There have been multiple examples in which members of the organization haven’t been able to coexist. Crick, Vazquez and fellow reliever Keone Kela have been among the sources of conflict. Vazquez and Kela each drew interest leading up to the July 31 deadline, but general manager Neal Huntington didn’t move either (more understandable in the case of Vazquez than Kela, as the former’s an elite closer).

Speaking of Huntington, the roster he has built is well on its way to a fourth straight season without a playoff berth. The Pirates were in the NL wild-card race when the second half of the season commenced, even though they were an unimpressive 43-46 at the time. They’ve gone an abysmal 20-36 since then and now own a 63-82 record that’s good for the eighth-worst mark in baseball. That’s not all Huntington’s fault – it would help if owner Bob Nutting would actually spend some money – but he and-or manager Clint Hurdle could nonetheless be in danger of losing their jobs in the wake of what has turned into an awful season.

While Huntington and Hurdle helped the Pirates to three straight playoff berths from 2013-15, the partnership’s on its way to its third sub-.500 season out of four since then. Between the lack of on-field results in recent years and the behind-the-scenes issues the Pirates have endured this season, perhaps Nutting will decide to move on from one or both of the Huntington-Hurdle tandem when the campaign concludes. Huntington has been in place since 2007, and Hurdle has been at the helm dating back to 2011, but it could be time for a regime change in Pittsburgh. What do you think?

(Poll link for app users)

Poll: Who Will Be The NL’s Wild Card Teams?

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MLBTR’s Connor Byrne asked this same question in a poll just over a month ago, and it was the Nationals (30%) and Mets (22%) who collected the most votes from a field of nine (eight teams and an “other” option).  As we look at the standings today, the Mets have fallen four games back of the Cubs for the second wild card slot, while Washington continues to sit in pretty good shape, with a three-game lead over Chicago for the first wild card spot and the subsequent home-field advantage in the one-game playoff.

With only three weeks of regular-season baseball remaining, let’s alter that original field to seven clubs.  This omits the “other,” and also removes the Giants (7.5 games back) and Reds (10 games back) from contention.  However, we’re also going to add the Cubs into the mix, as they were leading the NL Central at the time of the original poll and thus weren’t included.  The Cardinals have since roared out to a 4.5-game lead over Chicago in the division race, but we’re keeping St. Louis within the field if some voters feel the Cubs can re-claim the NL Central lead — the two rivals still have seven head-to-head games remaining, after all.

The Brewers also could still technically be in the NL Central mix, since they have three games left against the Cardinals but sit 6.5 behind the Redbirds in the standings.  It’s much more likely that Milwaukee’s path to the postseason will go through the wild card game, as the Brewers have gone 7-3 over their last 10 games to move two games behind Chicago.  This also ties Milwaukee with the Phillies, as the two teams have identical 74-68 records.

While the Brew Crew have been hot, however, it hasn’t matched the Diamondbacks’ roll of 11-2 over their last 13 games.  Arizona is closest on the Cubs’ heels, just 1.5 games out of that second and final position.

It makes for a very exciting September finish, and we can’t omit the possibility of some type of multi-team tie that would require a play-in game just to reach the wild card game.  Which two teams do you think will end up holding all the cards once the dust settles? (Poll link for app users)

Poll: NL Cy Young Favorite

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Dodgers left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu was arguably the favorite for the National League Cy Young Award just a couple weeks ago, though he’s now in the throes of a rough stretch that could damage his chances. After shutting out the Diamondbacks over seven innings on Aug. 11, Ryu was the proud owner of an incredible 1.45 ERA for the season. But since then, Ryu has trudged through three subpar starts, in which he allowed 18 earned runs on 25 hits over 13 2/3 innings. For reference, Ryu yielded a combined 18 earned runs across his previous 19 starts prior to his adverse run this mnth.

Despite his recent struggles, there is no question Ryu has been among the most effective hurlers in the NL this year. The pending free agent’s 2.35 ERA through 157 1/3 innings paces all qualified NL starters, while his K/BB ratio of 6.85 comes in second.Ryu’s advanced numbers – a 3.17 ERA, 3.42 xFIP and a 3.84 FIP with 4.2 bWAR/4.0 fWAR – aren’t quite as marvelous, but they still help place him smack dab in the Cy Young conversation with a month remaining in the regular season.

If Ryu’s going to take home the NL’s best pitcher honors on the cusp of a trip to free agency, there are a few starters he’ll have to fend off, including reigning winner Jacob deGrom. While the 31-year-old deGrom hasn’t been as unhittable as he was a year ago, when he posted a 217-inning season with 9.6 bWAR/9.0 fWAR, he he has been tremendous nonetheless. DeGrom has logged a 2.66 ERA/2.77 FIP with 11.4 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 and 5.6 fWAR/5.4 bWAR through 169 frames. As of now, he looks to have a real chance of repeating in the Cy Young race.

Back-to-back Cy Youngs aren’t foreign to Nationals right-hander Max Scherzer, a three-time winner who nabbed the award in consecutive seasons from 2016-17. Scherzer is currently leading NL pitchers in WAR, having notched a 2.46 ERA/2.22 FIP with 12.62 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9, though a relative lack of innings could be his undoing in the race. The 35-year-old has only thrown 142 2/3 after missing large portions of July and August with injuries. If you’re a voter who values dominance over innings, Scherzer should have a legitimate shot. Otherwise, considering health issues have prevented him from turning in a quality start since July 6, collecting a fourth Cy Young this year could be a tough task.

We’d be remiss to ignore that there are a few other potential winners in the NL, including two of Ryu’s teammates (Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw), a couple more Nationals (Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg), a pair of Reds (Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray), and the Braves’ Mike Soroka. Although the rookie Soroka is a ROY long shot because of the prodigious power Mets first baseman Pete Alonso has demonstrated, Cy Young voters may not be able to ignore his excellence. Even lights-out Padres closer Kirby Yates and Pirates game-ending lefty Felipe Vazquez could garner consideration if voters are willing to entertain a reliever winning, though the fact that they’re neither starters nor on contenders should help take them out of the running.

There’s clearly no shortage of candidates, evidenced in part by this top five leaderboard of notable stats among starters:

  • ERA – Ryu: 2.35; Soroka: 2.44; Scherzer: 2.46; deGrom: 2.66; Kershaw: 2.76
  • Innings – German Marquez: 174; Strasburg: 171; Madison Bumgarner: 169 2/3; deGrom: 169
  • Strikeouts per nine – Scherzer: 12.62; Robbie Ray: 11.82; deGrom: 11.4; Yu Darvish: 10.81; Buehler: 10.79
  • K/BB ratio – Scherzer: 7.41; Ryu: 6.85; Buehler: 6.61; deGrom: 5.49; Kershaw: 5.13
  • Wins (if those still matter to you) – Strasburg: 15; Castillo/Kershaw/Dakota Hudson: 13; Ryu: 12
  • bWAR – Scherzer: 5.5; deGrom: 5.4; Soroka: 5.3; Corbin: 5.1; S. Gray: 4.6
  • fWAR – Scherzer: 5.8; deGrom: 5.6; Buehler: 4.6; Strasburg: 4.5; Corbin: 4.3

It’s not easy to find a clear-cut favorite for NL Cy Young honors yet, which should make the last month of the campaign all the more intriguing if you’re interested in who collects season-ending hardware. With only a few weeks to go in 2019, which pitcher do you see as the favorite?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Superstars For Sale?

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ESPN scribe Jeff Passan floated a very interesting tidbit in his latest column Wednesday: There’s a belief among rival executives that the Red Sox, Indians and Cubs will at least be willing to listen to trade offers for their franchise players during the upcoming winter. That means any of Boston’s Mookie Betts, Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor or Chicago’s Kris Bryant could change hands once the offseason rolls around. It’s far from a guarantee anyone from the group will wind up on the move, but the idea that they might should make hot stove season all the more interesting.

The only member of the trio with fewer than two years of team control remaining is Betts, who will enter his final season of arbitration eligibility over the winter. The 26-year-old right fielder is just a season removed from earning AL MVP honors, which helped him land a historic $20MM payday to avoid arbitration last winter. The 2019 version of Betts hasn’t been as stellar as the MVP-winning player, but that’s not a knock on his performance this season so much as a compliment to what he did a year ago, when he amassed an eyebrow-raising 10.4 fWAR. Betts is up to 4.8 in that category this year, having slashed a strong .282/.384/.494 with 21 home runs and 13 stolen bases across 622 plate appearances.

Just a year from winning their latest World Series title, why would the Red Sox possibly move Betts? They’re unlikely to make the playoffs this year, though a trip back to the postseason in 2020 hardly looks out of the question. However, Betts has indicated on multiple occasions that he’d like to test free agency after next season, when he could reel in one of the all-time richest contracts in the sport. For the Red Sox, trading Betts a year before a potential journey to the open market would help the club replenish its farm system to some degree. The Red Sox only came in 22nd place in Baseball America’s most recent talent rankings.

The Indians, on the other hand, boast the game’s 10th-best system, though they’re incapable of spending to the extent the Red Sox can. That means Lindor is quite likely to end up elsewhere in the coming years. Mr. Smile will be a free agent after 2021, but it would behoove the Indians to get something for him prior to then. In the meantime, the 25-year-old Lindor is sure to collect a notable raise over his current $10.55MM salary when he reaches arbitration for the penultimate time during the offseason. Lindor perhaps hasn’t been quite as great as he was in 2018, a career-high 7.6-fWAR campaign, but his 4.3 mark and .300/.353/.532 line with 24 homers and 19 steals through 522 PA are mighty impressive nonetheless. Needless to say, teams will line up for the elite shortstop if small-market Cleveland goes with the agonizing decision to make him available in the coming months.

And then there’s Bryant, yet another former MVP. The Boras client joins Lindor as another all-world performer who’s slated for his second-last trip through arbitration in a few months. Bryant, 27, is well on his way to another raise (he’s currently on a $12.9MM salary), having batted .282/.379/.521 and smashed 29 dingers over 552 trips to the plate. Whether the Cubs would truly consider parting with Bryant is up in the air, but they are amid their second somewhat disappointing season (albeit one that looks as if it will culminate in yet another playoff berth), and waving goodbye to the third baseman/outfielder would go a long way toward aiding them in bolstering their system. It’s definitely a below-average group, according to BA, which places it 29th in baseball.

We’re still a couple months from the offseason rearing its head, but if anyone from this trio hits the block, it should make for an incredibly interesting winter of rumors. Do you expect any of them to actually change teams after the season?

(Poll link for app users)

Can The Red Sox Mount A Late-Season Comeback?

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It has been presumed for some time that the World Series-champion Red Sox were sunk in their quest for a repeat. While the club has easily kept its head above water, it has struggled to bag enough victories in a highly stratified American League.

An eight-game losing streak wrapping the trade deadline — at which Boston held pat — sent the club’s chances plummeting. By August 21st, Fangraphs’ playoff odds tracker gave the Sox a meager 1.8% chance of making the postseason.

But here’s the thing about postseason odds charts: they make for useful, rough gauges as to where a team stands at a given moment. But they can’t and don’t reflect all the nuanced factors that can influence performance swings. And the odds are based upon simulations of how the remainder of the season can play out. Thus, they necessarily change as actual results come in, and can change rather significantly in fairly short periods of time.

(The Red Sox suffered a drop of nearly fifty percentage points from July 27th through August 4th. The Mets did nearly the opposite from July 24th through August 10th — only to quickly shed many of the “gains” with a recent skid.)

With just a month of the season remaining, there are less plausible scenarios. But several of them certainly involve the Red Sox continuing to play once the regular season concludes.

After an 8-3 stretch of play — coupled with middling periods from the Rays and Indians — the BoSox have shot back up to a 9.8% chance by reckoning of the Fangraphs computers. Other systems are less optimistic: 538 puts it at 7%, Baseball-Reference at just 3.1%. But these systems are telling us the same essential thing: there’s a chance, and not just in the Lloyd Christmas sense.

The Indians just lost Jose Ramirez and are still missing some key pitchers, as are the Rays. The Athletics seem to be cresting, but who’s to say the rotation can keep outperforming ERA estimators by such a wide margin? (4.02 ERA; 4.87 xFIP; 4.94 SIERA.) Or that the Red Sox’ opposite fortunes won’t suddenly reverse? (5.02 ERA; 4.44 xFIP; 4.41 SIERA.) David Price is slated for a return, with Michael Chavis perhaps not far behind him. Boston relievers have reversed their fortunes over the past month, perhaps portending good things for high-leverage situations.

Gut out a few extra wins, and those postseason odds will keep lurching forward. Gain some momentum, and perhaps the goal will feel — and even actually be — more attainable than the numbers would suggest. This team has been there before, so there’s no questioning the capacity. And it’s arguably the best of the AL Wild Card contenders from a true-talent perspective.

That’s the argument in favor of a stirring comeback, anyway. But what do you think? Do you agree with the computer simulations, or do you believe the Red Sox will mount a successful charge? (Poll link for app users.)

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