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Will The Dodgers Make The Playoffs?

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With a major league-best 104-58 record, a National League-high plus-190 run differential and their first pennant since 1988, the Dodgers were a juggernaut in 2017. Because most of that great roster returned this year, expectations were that the Dodgers would once again rank among the majors’ so-called super teams. Instead, as the season nears the quarter pole, Los Angeles’ record places it in company with the dregs of the league.

LA dropped to a stunningly poor 16-23 on Saturday when it lost its third straight game to lowly Cincinnati, which at 13-27 is one of just three NL teams with a worse mark. The Dodgers will have to fight Sunday to stave off an embarrassing four-game home sweep and perhaps an even larger deficit in the NL West, a division they already trail by eight games. Not only have the rival Diamondbacks gotten off to the NL’s best start (24-15), but they’ve manhandled the Dodgers in the process, winning eight of 12 matchups. The two teams won’t see each other again until the end of August, and if they maintain something resembling their current pace, the Dodgers will be out of both the division and wild-card races by then.

Given the talent on the Dodgers’ roster, it stands to reason they’ll at least push for a wild card, though they’re already 6.5 games back in a crowded race. Ten of the league’s 15 teams are over .500, and eight of those clubs have posted positive run differentials. LA is among those clubs, having scored one more run than it has allowed (168 to 167) en route to an above-.500 Pythagorean record (20-19). It seems the Dodgers have been the victims of bad luck in the win-loss department, then, and they’ve definitely had poor fortune on the injury front.

LA’s laundry list of ailments began in earnest late in spring training when elite third baseman Justin Turner suffered a broken left wrist and hasn’t subsided since then. Along with Turner – who hasn’t yet debuted in 2018 – Clayton Kershaw, Corey Seager, Yasiel Puig, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Rich Hill, Logan Forsythe, Tony Cingrani and Tom Koehler are among key Dodgers who have spent time on the DL this year. Kershaw has been out for a week with a biceps issue, and it’s unclear when he’ll return. Meanwhile, the groin strain Ryu suffered earlier this month will keep him out until after the All-Star break.

The injuries to Kershaw and Ryu, not to mention the 2017 shoulder surgery young lefty Julio Urias is working back from, have dented an LA rotation that isn’t blessed with as much depth as it had during the team’s NL-winning showing last year. To their credit, Dodgers starters still rank toward the top of the majors in ERA (ninth) and fWAR (sixth), thanks in part to the much-needed emergence of rookie Walker Buehler.

The team’s relief corps has been ineffective, on the other hand, owing to closer Kenley Jansen’s shockingly rough start, a lack of help from offseason acquisitions Koehler (who hasn’t pitched) and Scott Alexander, and the loss of now-Cub Brandon Morrow in free agency. Only nine bullpens have posted a worse ERA than the Dodgers’ 4.49, while just two are short of the unit’s minus-0.1 fWAR. No Dodgers reliever has been a greater source of concern than the 30-year-old Jansen, who was utterly dominant from 2010-17 but has seen his velocity drop this year en route to career-worst numbers in the run prevention, swinging-strike, strikeout, walk and home run categories.

A revival from Jansen would obviously help key a Dodgers turnaround, as would a healthier squad. Fortunately for LA, Turner and Forsythe could return during the upcoming week to bolster a position player group that has actually managed respectable numbers thus far. The Dodgers rank middle of the pack or better in runs (14th), wRC+ (13th) and fWAR (ninth) despite having gone completely without Turner and largely without the excellent Seager, who racked up 115 plate appearances before undergoing season-ending Tommy John surgery in late April.

The loss of Seager was and still is a devastating blow to the Dodgers, who could attempt to fill his shoes via trade (there has been Manny Machado speculation, for instance) if they’re in position to make a splash around the July non-waiver deadline. Any move(s) the Dodgers make may be partially geared toward keeping them under the $197MM competitive-balance tax threshold, which they seemingly worked to avoid during the offseason.. Thanks in part to a low-key winter in which Koehler, Alexander and a seemingly reborn Matt Kemp were their only noteworthy major league acquisitions, the Dodgers sit an estimated $10MM-plus under the CBT after blowing past it in previous seasons.

For its part, Dodgers management insists staying below the CBT isn’t a must, though that’ll be worth monitoring as the season progresses. Of course, the $197MM figure may not matter for the team come late July if it doesn’t do a 180 over the next two-plus months. There’s plenty of work ahead for the Dodgers to get back to .500, let alone firmly in playoff position, but it’s possible we’ll end up looking back on their first-quarter woes as a blip. Last year’s version did lose 16 of 17 games from late August to mid-September, after all, though they’d already banked an incredible 91-36 record prior to that slump. The current Dodgers would need to go 75-13 over their next 88 to match that pace. Not happening. But will the team rebound to earn its sixth straight playoff berth?

(poll link for app users)

Poll: Blake Swihart’s Future

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The Red Sox entered Sunday with the majors’ best record (24-9) and second-ranked run differential (plus-62), feats that are all the more impressive when you consider they’ve received almost no offensive production from their catchers. Boston’s backstops, Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon, have combined for a hideous .169/.226/.202 line with no home runs in 134 plate appearances. That amounts to a wRC+ of 15, which falls well short of 29th-place Baltimore’s mark (41).

Given the dreadful starts Vazquez and Leon have gotten off to at the plate, it stands to reason the Red Sox will give the catcher-capable Blake Swihart an opportunity to grab the reins at some point. There aren’t any signs that’s going to happen, however, as Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston wrote earlier this week.

Although Swihart was a first-round pick (26th overall) in 2011 and was once among the game’s most heralded catching prospects, he hasn’t been able to establish himself in Boston. The switch-hitter looked to be on his way when he amassed 309 PAs and batted a respectable .274/.319/.392 (93 wRC+) as a rookie in 2015, but he has only come to the plate 106 times since then. Of course, there were obvious causes for Swihart’s lack of MLB time from 2016-17, including nagging ankle problems, major questions about his defense and poor production at Triple-A Pawtucket last season. Meanwhile, at the big league level, Leon enjoyed a breakout year in 2016 to grab hold of the Red Sox’s catching job that season. And while Leon took sizable steps backward last year, Vazquez stepped up, thus earning himself a contract extension prior to the current campaign.

Despite the struggles Vazquez and Leon have endured this year, the Red Sox clearly trust those two more than Swihart, who has transitioned to a utility role. The 26-year-old has barely played in the field, though, and has only caught one inning (in a blowout loss to Texas this past Thursday). Although Swihart has been working on bettering his behind-the-plate skills with Red Sox catching coordinator Chad Epperson and retired catcher Jason Varitek, as Drellich details in his piece, pitching coach Dana LeVangie noted that the best way for him to improve is by actually seeing game action at the position.

“He needs to play through failure, he needs to play through success, he needs to get comfortable,” LeVangie told Drellich. “And the only way to do it is to play. And for him to figure it out behind the plate, the only way to get more comfortable is more reps. He can get better in every facet.”

If Boston’s not going to be the team that gives Swihart a shot at catcher this year, he may wind up on another roster soon, Drellich points out. When on-the-mend second baseman Dustin Pedroia returns from offseason knee surgery in the coming weeks, Swihart’s time with the Red Sox could end, given that he’s out of options. Boston has turned down opportunities to trade Swihart in the past, but it might have to either deal him or expose him to waivers soon. For his part, Swihart’s not asking for a trade.

“I don’t think that you do that,” he told Drellich. “That’s my agent’s job to call and do that, you know? Me personally, the player, this is all I know, is the Red Sox. I know there’s other teams that probably tried to call and there’s stuff moving. But I’m not the type of person that’s just going to walk in and say, ‘Hey, I’m not playing, so get rid of me.’ I mean, I want this team to win, and when I’m here, I want to be able to help contribute any way I can.”

Swihart perhaps has the ability to contribute not only at catcher, but in both the corner infield and outfield. The problem is that the Red Sox are set in all of those areas, with Hanley Ramirez and Mitch Moreland at first, Rafael Devers at third and an enviable group of corner outfielders (Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and J.D. Martinez). The club’s embarrassment of riches at those spots has made it that much more difficult for Swihart to emerge as a factor in the majors – evidenced in part by his meager 25 PAs this year – though it’s possible he’ll soon have a chance to return to his natural position with another franchise.

Drellich names Texas as a possible fit for Swihart, which makes sense considering the Rangers have had interest in him the past. Further, they’ve clearly been in the market for a competent backup to Robinson Chirinos, having added Carlos Perez and Cameron Rupp in recent weeks. The Mets have also come up as speculative suitors for Swihart, thanks largely to starting catcher Travis d’Arnaud’s season-ending elbow injury and the fractured left hand backup Kevin Plawecki suffered a few weeks ago. New York hasn’t found anything resembling a solution behind the plate in those players’ absences, as fill-ins Jose Lobaton and Tomas Nido have combined for a mere eight hits (two for extra bases) in 70 PAs.

Regardless of whether he ultimately hooks on with the Rangers, Mets or someone else, it does appear Swihart’s days with the Red Sox are on the verge of concluding. If so, it would bring an end to what has been a disappointing Boston tenure for a player who once looked as if he could be its first long-term answer at catcher since Varitek retired after the 2011 campaign.

(poll link for app users)

Poll: What Last-Place AL Team Is Likeliest To Turn Its Season Around?

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With one day left in April, we’ve already seen a wide gulf emerge within the American League standings.  Three clubs (the Red Sox, Yankees, and Astros) are on pace to surpass 105 wins, while six teams are also currently on pace to win fewer than 70 games.  By comparison, only six teams in all of baseball failed to surpass the 70-win plateau in 2017.

Obviously, it’s still very early, and there’s plenty of baseball still to be played for these struggling teams.  Three teams, however, will head into May in the basement of their respective divisions, and in those cases, a slower start could be much harder to overcome.  The Rangers, Royals, and Orioles all faced rather tricky paths to contention even in the best of circumstances, and their poor April records may force them to make some hard decisions about how long they’re willing to go before considering selling pieces at the trade deadline.

Let’s check in on the three last-place teams to see which has the most potential to make April simply a “slow start” en route to a respectable or even a contending season…

Rangers (11-18): With Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, and Rougned Odor all on the disabled list, Texas fans are beginning to have some unpleasant flashbacks to the team’s disastrously injury-plagued 2014 campaign.  Still, while the injury bug explains the lack of offensive production, the Rangers’ pitching situation has looked as shaky as it appeared to be heading into the season.  Other than the surprise continuation of Bartolo Colon’s late-career renaissance, it’s been mostly bad news for both the rotation and the bullpen, with Martin Perez, Matt Moore, Matt Bush, Alex Claudio, and Kevin Jepsen all getting off to particularly tough starts.

The team’s big infield trio may not all be back until June, so can the Rangers at least tread water until then?  It doesn’t help that the rest of the AL West teams are all at the .500 mark or better, though the Angels (+5), Mariners (-2), and A’s (+3) are all nothing special in terms of run differential.  (Of course, Texas is a miserable -39 in that department.)  The Rangers will need more arms to step up if they are to turn their season around, plus some internal reinforcements have already come in the form of Delino DeShields and Tony Barnette, who are both back after lengthy DL stints of their own.  Top prospect Willie Calhoun could also provide more help for the lineup, though Calhoun is off to a quiet start at Triple-A this year.

Orioles (8-20): The Orioles and Rangers share pretty similar tales of woe.  Baltimore has also been hurt by a tough division, a lack of quality starting or relief pitching, plus several key injuries — Zach Britton and Mark Trumbo have yet to play a game, while Jonathan Schoop, Tim Beckham, and Colby Rasmus are all on the DL.  Manny Machado’s individual brilliance has been tempered by a lack of hitting from almost everyone else on roster, with Chris Davis standing out as the single worst position player by fWAR (-0.6) in baseball so far this season.

Dan Duquette unofficially cited Memorial Day as the date when teams begin to evaluate where they really stand in a season, so the O’s therefore have just under a month to get on track.  That might be enough time to get at least some of the injured parties back, plus it’ll give time for Alex Cobb to hopefully start rounding into form given that the late-to-sign righty has a 13.11 ERA over his first three starts.  On paper, Baltimore has too much hitting talent to be as bad as they are at the plate, so you figure that at least some type of positive correction is in store.

Royals (7-20): The Royals held off on a full-fledged rebuild over the winter, though their decision about whether to try for another playoff run may have been made for them by their lousy April.  The Royals entered Sunday’s play with the fewest runs in the majors, as only Mike Moustakas and Jorge Soler were putting up good numbers at the plate, and some quality returns by the starting rotation have been undermined by arguably baseball’s worst bullpen.  Even with closer Kelvin Herrera still boasting a perfect 0.00 ERA through 9 2/3 innings, the road to Herrera has been plagued by potholes, as the relief corps is collectively at or near the bottom of the list in just about every major statistic.

One bright side for the Royals?  Their competition.  The AL Central has been baseball’s worst division through the first month, with the first-place Indians holding just a 14-12 record.  As bad as Kansas City has been, the Royals are still just 4.5 games back of the second-place Tigers.  Since the White Sox and Tigers are rebuilding and the Twins are struggling to recapture their 2017 form, there is some opportunity for the Royals to regain some ground if they can beat up on their division foes.

Which of the AL’s last-place squads do you think has the best chance of recovering from its shaky April? (Link for app users)

Poll: Should MLB Shorten The Baseball Season?

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Most readers have probably already caught wind of the suggestion that MLB should shave a few games off the incredibly long season. But fewer readers probably realize that it’s actually a topic that’s gained some very real momentum. In a lengthy piece on the subject, Jayson Stark of The Athletic dives into this issue, at one point revealing that the topic of a 158-game season actually made it to the “bargaining table” in the negotiations leading up to the 2011 labor agreement. In 2016, MLB actually did some extensive research on the potential effects of a 154-game season due to a suspicion that the players might bring it up, but the union apparently didn’t bring it up; they were focused on other issues.

While eight games might seem like a trivial percentage of the season, it could actually pose a significant reduction in revenue for MLB clubs. According to statista.com, the Yankees brought in about $278MM in ticket revenue during the 2017 season. A 5% reduction in games would mean losing out on nearly $14MM in ticket sales, not to mention they’d be worth 5% less in terms of a television contract.

Of course, the Yankees are an extreme example in that regard; small market clubs make much, much less on an annual basis when it comes to ticket sales. As such, it’s not surprising to learn that twenty-two MLB clubs reportedly had little or no objection to a 154 season; it seems that a vocal eight-team minority would have likely proved a holdup in negotiations.

It’s also easy to imagine that cutting player salaries would be one of the first orders of business in the event of a shortened season. After all, it’s unfair to expect ownership to pay players the same amount for playing 5% fewer games. While Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo seems to be sympathetic to the idea of making less money in order to play a more comfortable season, it seems awfully likely that there’d be some ruckus from at least some of the players. With all the recent pushback over the idea of something as simple as a pitch clock, you can bet that there’d be some loud voices where millions of dollars are concerned.

The benefits to a shorter season, though, are numerous and logically sound. Stark makes a great point when mentioning that beginning the season in the third week of April rather than the final days of March would lop off a dramatic majority of the games played in uncomfortably cold weather; weather that makes the games less enjoyable for both the players and the fans who come out to the ballpark. It’s fair to imagine that the number of injuries and illnesses increase as a result of playing in extreme cold. The number of postponements due to inclement weather also complicate the season schedule.

Concurrently, a shorter season would mean a better chance that the final games of the playoffs could conclude before cold weather sets in. Stark also suggests a longer All-Star break, as well as making all Mondays off-days. From my vantage point, it’s a bit confusing to see how all these things could be implemented with a reduction of only eight games, even if Stark does mention the idea of a few planned doubleheaders scattered throughout the season.

Perhaps one of the most important benefits to a shortened season with more days off is the health and energy of the players. Stark suggests that pitcher injuries could be reduced, which makes plenty of sense. Not only would fewer games make for fewer physically taxing stretches of baseball, but it would also allow players more time to rest and recuperate from smaller nagging injuries without putting their respective teams at a disadvantage.

On a grander scale, this kind of change could have an impact on gameplay and even roster makeup. More intermittent days off would likely allow teams to get by without a fifth starter for large stretches of the season, potentially eliminating many starting pitcher jobs around the league. It could also allow teams to feel more comfortable rolling with one fewer reliever for extended stretches, and it certainly makes sense to think that teams wouldn’t be forced to reach into their vertical depth at Triple-A for a fresh bullpen arm as often as they are now. Basically, while a shorter season could mean a more comfortable job for the players, it could also make for a game in which a small number of pitchers begin to lose their jobs in favor of bench bats or late-inning defensive replacement types.

With all this in mind, what do you think? Should MLB shorten the baseball season to 154 games, or keep things the way they are? (Poll link for app users)

Poll: How Should The Mets Handle Matt Harvey?

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A recent MLBTR poll asked whether the Mets ought to move Matt Harvey to the bullpen. As poll respondents recommended, the team elected to do just that. For many pitchers, such a move would be disappointing but not otherwise terribly momentous. In Harvey’s case, though, everything occurs against the backdrop of his often-glorious, sometimes-tumultuous history in New York. Let’s take a look at the situation before posing a somewhat different question in a follow-up poll.

There was little reason entering the season to think that Harvey would resemble the ace of old. If anything, the question was whether the Mets ought even to tender him a contract. MLBTR’s Steve Adams examined that question as a disappointing 2017 Mets campaign wound to a close. Despite Harvey’s marginal recent track record, Adams explained, it’d be hard to find a bounceback candidate with a more promising outlook for a lesser price. (Player and team ultimately settled at $5.625MM for Harvey’s final season of arbitration eligibility.)

At the time the tender decision was made, there was still some reason to believe that Harvey could yet emerge from his struggles. After all, he had just completed his first season of work after undergoing surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. A full offseason was available for Harvey to rest and build up normally, rather than rehabbing back from a procedure. And his 29th birthday would not come until just before Opening Day of 2018, putting youth on his side.

Things, clearly, have not turned out as hoped. Through 23 innings in four starts and one relief appearance, Harvey has allowed 15 earned runs on 28 hits (including four long balls) while recording 19 strikeouts and five walks.

There are some conflicting signals when you dig further. Both xFIP and SIERA grade Harvey’s output thus far at sub-4.00 levels, and his .324 BABIP-against and 66.9% strand rate could each be viewed as signals of some poor fortune. Then again, Statcast suggests Harvey has actually been somewhat lucky, as the wOBA he has allowed (.356) trails the xwOBA (.371) indicated by the quality of opponents’ contact.

More importantly, perhaps, those numbers don’t really paint a full picture of the concerns. Harvey, who once worked in the upper nineties with his fastball, has lost nearly a mile-and-a-half off his average heater just in comparison to his 2017 effort. And like last year, he’s generating swinging strikes with less than eight percent of his pitches, well off his previous career mean and well shy of league average.

The Mets neither expected nor demanded that Harvey return to being a front-of-the-rotation starter, though surely the gamble presumed there was real upside left in his arm. There’s always a downside scenario, too, of course, and that seems to be the case here. If the bet isn’t going to pay out, you have to have a backup plan. The Mets certainly did not assume that Harvey (or other talented-but-oft-injured hurlers like Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler) would pan out in 2018. The club knew it needed some additional steadiness on the staff, too, and thus added Jason Vargas. But what to do with Harvey himself?

For the time being, the former star is going to work from the bullpen, where he’ll at least be able to give some length while remaining available if a rotation need arises. The organization will no doubt prefer to bide its time before making any irrevocable decisions, and skipper Mickey Callaway says he expects Harvey will return to the rotation at some point. Still, the long-time starter’s transition to the pen does not appear to have been a smooth one to date. Harvey expressed consternation with his the idea of relief work both before and after the decision was made. And if his outburst to the media yesterday is any indication, plenty of tension remains.

The situation might look quite a bit different if we were discussing a less prominent player with a different track record with a different team. But this is the Dark Knight of Gotham. How would you handle the situation if you were Mets GM Sandy Alderson? (Link for app users.)

Poll: What Should The Mets Do With Matt Harvey?

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Since allowing just one hit across five innings of work against the Phillies in his season debut, Matt Harvey has seemingly reverted back to his 2017 form. He’s allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last three starts, lasting just five innings in two of them. While it’s a good sign that Harvey’s walk rate is down, he’s been prone to the long ball (four homers allowed so far) and hasn’t been particularly impressive in the strikeouts department (7.29 K/9).

It’s an unfortunate extension of Harvey’s recent track record. Since coming off the disabled list in September of last season, the righty sports a cataclysmic 8.72 ERA, and there aren’t any real reasons for optimism surrounding the 29-year-old’s performance. He’s struck out just 30 batters across 43 1/3 innings of work since that time, and he’s allowed at least four runs in six of his nine starts while lasting more than five innings just once. For those interested in pitcher records, Harvey is 1-6 during that time.

It’s becoming more and more clear with each outing that Harvey seems unlikely to turn things around. He was once among the games elite arms and seemed likely to earn nine figures in his then-distant free agent foray, and although a late-2013 Tommy John surgery put that in serious question, he managed to bounce back with an outstanding 4.4 fWAR campaign in 2015. 2016, however, was the start of a tailspin, and Harvey managed to pitch just 92 2/3 innings in both 2016 and 2017 with just 143 total strikeouts and 119 earned runs allowed. With this season’s terrible start, we’re almost to the point where it’s worth asking the question, “Will Harvey pitch himself out of the majors this season?”

While that seems a bit extreme, the subject of bumping Harvey from the rotation has certainly been broached. Jason Vargas is set to return to the rotation soon, and Harvey’s the obvious candidate to give up his spot if performance is the determining factor. Reporters recently asked Harvey if he’d give his consent to be optioned to the minors (he can’t be optioned without his permission due to his five-year MLB tenure), but he wouldn’t comment on the subject.

A more likely scenario would be for the 14-5 Mets to make Harvey a reliever. For his part, Harvey isn’t thinking about a move to a bullpen, and recently told reporters that he considers himself a starting pitcher. In reality, what Harvey considers himself to be doesn’t really matter if he can’t get outs, so the Mets will have a big decision in the impending days.

Many struggling starters have benefitted greatly from a move to the bullpen, and it doesn’t seem likely at this point that Harvey will revive his career as a starter. However, a miraculous return to his 2013/2015 form would provide the Mets with a huge boost to their seemingly strong playoff chances. What do you think New York should do in regards to their former ace? (Poll link for app users)

 

Poll: When Should The Braves Promote Ronald Acuna?

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The topic of whether top prospect Ronald Acuna should be in the Majors or in Triple-A is one of the most oft-discussed topics certainly among Braves fans but also among fans throughout the league. The 20-year-old, after all, has been widely billed as a phenom in the waiting and topped the majority of prospect rankings from major outlets this offseason (with the occasional exception of Shohei Ohtani, when he was deemed eligible for such lists).

Ronald Acuna | Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Acuna opened the 2017 season in Class-A Advanced and skyrocketed to Triple-A by season’s end. The Venezuelan-born slugger didn’t just move up the ladder, though; his numbers actually improved upon each promotion, culminating with a .344/.393/.548 line in Triple-A.

Overall, Acuna slashed .325/.374/.522 with 21 homers, 31 doubles, eight triples and 44 steals across three minor league levels in 2017 — and he did so all before turning 20 years of age this past December. Even before reading any of the many glowing scouting reports on Acuna, it’s abundantly clear that he’s a special talent. Teenagers simply don’t perform that well in pro ball.

Entering the season, the thought was that the Braves, like many teams do with elite prospects, would take advantage of Major League Baseball’s service time infrastructure and hold Acuna in the minors long enough to delay his free agency by a year. Doing so would only require him to be in Gwinnett until mid-April. While some may bristle at the notion, it’s hard to argue, from a front-office standpoint, that the extra two weeks of games in 2018 are worth sacrificing Acuna’s entire 2024 season — his age-27 campaign. Keeping Acuna in the minors for those couple of weeks makes perfect sense from a long-term view.

That date has come and gone, however, meaning the Braves can bring their vaunted wunderkind to the Majors at any point, knowing he’ll be controlled through 2024. Bringing him up now would mean allowing him to reach arbitration four times as a Super Two player rather than the standard three times, but that’s of relatively minimal consequence — at least when juxtaposed with the notion of losing an entire year of club control over his prime.

But although Acuna dominated Grapefruit League play in Spring Training (.432/.519/.727), that hasn’t been the case in the regular season. It’s only nine games and 41 plate appearances, of course, but Acuna is hitting .139/.244/.167 in Triple-A. After striking out at a 19.8 percent clip last season, he’s already whiffed 14 times in 41 plate appearances (34.1 percent).

None of that does anything to change the perception that Acuna is a star in the making, but it stands to reason that the Braves may not relish the idea of taking a struggling 20-year-old and bringing him to the big leagues to face even tougher competition. It doesn’t help that Preston Tucker has filled in capably at the big league level. Even though the 27-year-old likely isn’t a long-term piece, and there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that his start isn’t sustainable, the fact remains that the Braves have gotten some production out of Acuna’s would-be spot in the lineup.

That, of course, isn’t deemed a good enough reason for Acuna to be in the minors for many. Narratives on his brief minor league struggles will suggest that he’s pressing to earn a promotion or not engaged enough by the lack of competition. Atlanta skipper Brian Snitker went with the similarly nebulous explanation that Acuna is “trying too hard” at the moment (link via MLB.com’s Mark Bowman). It’s understandable if Braves fans want to see him up at all costs; it’s been a lengthy rebuilding process down in Georgia, and Acuna’s arrival could in many ways mark a move back toward contention. It’s also true that attendance figures would likely spike, at least in the short term, the moment that Acuna is called upon for his highly anticipated debut. And if he’s anything close to the player that most believe he will be, there’s also an argument to be made that Acuna ought to be added to a ballclub that has played rather well and may yet be a fringe postseason contender.

All of those factors enter into the calculus of when Acuna will be brought to the big leagues. It’s a decision the Atlanta front office won’t make lightly, as the last thing first-year GM Alex Anthopoulos and his staff want to do is have to demote Acuna back to Gwinnett if he struggles out of the gate. At the same time, Anthopoulos & Co. are no doubt cognizant of the fanbase’s desire to see Acuna attack Major League pitching and of the manner in which a strong arrival on the scene would invigorate the Atlanta faithful.

(Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users.)


Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Projecting Shohei Ohtani’s Rookie Season

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This is an especially exciting day for baseball because it marks the first time Angels righty-throwing uber-prospect Shohei Ohtani will start a meaningful major league game as a pitcher. We already got a glimpse of the 23-year-old Ohtani as a hitter on Opening Day, when the Angels slotted him in at DH and the lefty-swinger went 1 for 5 with a single in a loss to Oakland. He’ll turn around Sunday and face the Athletics’ lineup, which features feared sluggers in Khris Davis and Matt Olson.

Ohtani drew Babe Ruth comparisons in his homeland because of his two-way ability, leading nearly every MLB team to vie for his services in free agency over the winter. Although, in his first action with the Angels during the spring, Ohtani was more Brooks Kieschnick than Ruth. On the offensive end, Ohtani went just 4 of 32 with no extra-base hits, 10 walks and three strikeouts. As a pitcher, he gave up eight earned runs on nine hits and two walks, with five strikeouts, during a pair of major league spring training starts.

Needless to say, it was an ugly exhibiton showing for Ohtani, though that’s not necessarily indicative of what’s to come. Ohtani’s adjusting to both a new country and the best baseball league in the world, after all, and he didn’t garner so much pre-major league hype for no reason.

As part of an excellent piece he wrote last May, MLBTR contributor Chuck Wasserstrom spoke with several scouts regarding Ohtani, and the consensus was that he’d parlay his impressive repertoire – including a 95 to 100 mph fastball, a splitter and multiple breaking pitches – into a career as a mid- to front-of-the-rotation starter in the majors. The scouts were less confident in Ohtani’s offense, though they nonetheless believed a year ago that he could serve as a quality big league hitter. He was certainly a threat with the bat in Japan, where he slashed .286/.358/.500 in 1,170 plate appearances.

As Ohtani embarks on his first season with the Angels, the Steamer projection system is calling for a .262/.339/.463 batting line across 249 PAs. That would make for a 116 wRC+, the same figure Joe Mauer posted in 2017 and just above the mark Christian Yelich put up. The Angels would likely be ecstatic with that type of production from the part-time DH, and it’s fair to say they’d also be on board with Steamer’s projection for Ohtani the pitcher. He’s forecast for 145 innings (24 starts) of 3.54 ERA/3.60 FIP ball with 11.17 K/9 and 3.62 BB/9. That output would be worth 3.1 fWAR, matching the 2017 totals of Gerrit Cole, Drew Pomeranz and Mike Leake. All said, if Ohtani were to meet Steamer’s two-way projection, he’d rack up 3.8 fWAR, which would likely put him in the running for American League Rookie of the Year and perhaps help the Halos break their three-year playoff drought.

We’ll begin finding out Sunday what Ohtani will bring as a big league pitcher, but what do you expect from him? Will Ohtani live up to the hype on either end as a rookie? Or will his subpar spring drag into the regular season? Weigh in below (poll links for app users)…

MLBTR Poll: When Will Greg Holland Sign?

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We’ve already seen most of the backlog of high-profile free agents clear out late in camp. But one familiar name remains available: closer Greg Holland, whom we profiled in full back in January. Despite some uncertainties, he was and is quite an accomplished reliever who seemed worthy of a rather large and lengthy contract.

Though it seemed at one point he’d return to the Rockies, and reportedly had a $50MM-or-so offer on the table, Holland’s market has gone dark of late. Over the past month or so, teams such as the Braves, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, and Rangers have been tied loosely to Holland. The Cards seem to be the most obvious match on paper, as a contender with a fairly hefty budget and an unresolved closing situation. But they haven’t yet emerged as a strong pursuer.

On the whole, there’s simply no indication that any of those organizations, or any others, are hot after the veteran righty — let alone willing to make him a significant, multi-year commitment. True, it’s still anyone’s guess what kind of contract Holland will secure. (Remember that Alex Cobb did still score a long-term pact after the similarly placed Lance Lynn did not.)  But the smart money may now be on some kind of creative, one or two-year arrangement not unlike the one he signed last winter when coming off of Tommy John surgery.

Rather than thinking about what Holland will get, though, today’s poll will focus on when he’ll finally put pen to paper.

At this point, there’s no chance that Holland will be on an Opening Day roster. Presumably, though, he’s pitching on his own and wouldn’t require a terribly lengthy window to reach MLB readiness. Perhaps, then, it’s still sensible to believe that he’ll come to agreement in relatively short order and be prepared to pitch for nearly all of the coming season.

In theory, a signing could come in the next few days. Waiting until after the start of the season to sign once was once a strategically meaningful consideration, but is not of ongoing consequence now that repeat qualifying offers have been outlawed as part of the new CBA’s tweaks to the QO system.

Of course, waiting until the season is underway might still hold some appeal for other reasons. There could certainly be some merit to waiting to see how closer situations shape up around the game. Turnover in the ninth inning is hardly a new thing, but it’s not often that a ready-made solution is standing by to be signed whenever the need arises. Organizations that face early-season crises, whether due to injury or performance, would then have an intriguing alternative in Holland.

The question, then, would become whether Holland will wait until after the June draft to ink a new contract. That was the approach taken by fellow Scott Boras clients Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew, who agreed to partial-season deals in 2014 after the draft compensation attached to their signings had dissipated. As a high-leverage reliever, Holland might be even better situated for this approach. Though he wouldn’t be marketing a full season of output, he might still earn well since he’d be valued most for his contributions down the stretch and into a hypothetical postseason run.

So, when do you think Holland will end up finally choosing his new club? (Link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Alex Cobb Signing

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After watching a variety of quality free agents settle for shorter and less-lucrative contracts than expected — including established veteran starter Lance Lynn — it seemed that right-hander Alex Cobb would likewise need to take what he could get and plan to return to the open market in the near future in search of a heftier pact. Instead, he struck a surprising four-year, $57MM deal yesterday with the Orioles.

Of course, that contract wouldn’t have seemed out of line when the offseason got underway. MLBTR tabbed Cobb the 11th-best free agent available and predicted he’d secure a four-year contract with a $48MM guarantee — not far off from where he ultimately landed. But we also guessed four and $56MM for Lynn, who got just $12MM from the Twins despite signing a few weeks before Cobb and carrying a broadly similar overall profile in terms of age and track record. And when we reexamined the market before Lynn’s signing, we downgraded expectations for both hurlers.

Needless to say, this winter’s market has been something of a moving target. At the end of the day, though, Cobb will land a sizable but generally market-rate deal with an organization that came into the winter as perhaps the most pitching-needy would-be contender in baseball. If the deal is finalized, Cobb will join Andrew Cashner and the re-signed Chris Tillman as free-agent additions to a staff that already featured Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman.

There are still questions up and down that five-man crew, but the overall talent base on the pitching staff is quite a bit higher now than at the outset of the offseason. One can argue that the O’s ought not to have made a commitment of this magnitude entering the organization’s final season of control over Manny Machado and Adam Jones. On the other hand, it’s hard to condemn a club for spending to win, especially when so many others are focusing on the future. And while the Cobb contract hardly seems a bargain, it’s roughly in range of his market value and arguably delivers some upside given Cobb’s history as a top-of-the-rotation presence. He was, after all, one of the most effective starters in the AL East in 2013-14 and delivered 179 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA pitching in 2017.

How would you grade the move from the team’s perspective? (Link for app users.)

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