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MLBTR Readers’ Mock Hall Of Fame Ballot

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The votes are in, but it remains to be seen who has been elected to baseball’s Hall of Fame. Official results will be revealed this evening. In the meantime, those with interest are left to examine the ballot-counting efforts of Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs). Here’s his updated spreadsheet for reference as to what is publicly known at this time, representing just over half of the total ballots. If you’re interested in what those data points predict, check out this post from Ryan Pollock of The Hardball Times.

While it’s hardly our core area of coverage, we thought we’d get in on the fun and allow our readers a chance to have a quick say as to who ought to be inducted this year. For these purposes, we’ll include only those players who have received more than five percent of the actual tally documented to this point. (That’s also the threshold those players will need to clear to stay on the ballot for another season.) That limits the field a bit, but you’ll have the opportunity to pick as many candidates as you like, whereas BBWAA members are limited to ten selections annually. (Fangraphs recently released the results of its own crowdsourced ballot, unsullied by the ensuing partial release of actual voting results and under conditions much more closely approximating the real thing.)

Here’s the poll, with response order randomized. This is just for fun, of course, but hopefully it’ll still be interesting to see where MLBTR readers land on the story of the day. (Link for app users.)

The poll is now closed. Only two players landed on a high-enough percentage of ballots to crack the 75% barrier:

Mariano Rivera 99.11%
Roy Halladay 76.97%
Edgar Martinez 70.85%
Mike Mussina 55.66%
Barry Bonds 55.07%
Roger Clemens 55.05%
Curt Schilling 43.32%
Fred McGriff 39.45%
Larry Walker 39.12%
Manny Ramirez 27.25%
Todd Helton 23.64%
Omar Vizquel 21.62%
Jeff Kent 21.17%
Billy Wagner 20.80%
Andy Pettitte 18.76%
Andruw Jones 18.72%
Scott Rolen 18.71%
Gary Sheffield 18.46%
Sammy Sosa 15.01%

Poll: How Much Money For Manny?

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As an elite, in-his-prime player, Manny Machado isn’t the type of free agent who comes along very often in Major League Baseball. With that in mind, Machado (and fellow 26-year-old superstar free agent Bryce Harper) no doubt came into the offseason with designs on signing one of the richest contracts in the history of the sport. Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted Machado would eclipse Giancarlo Stanton’s record $325MM extension from 2014. Meanwhile, FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Fancred’s Jon Heyman forecast that Machado would earn less than Stanton, but they did peg him to surpass the $275MM guarantee Alex Rodriguez received as a free agent in 2007.

While Machado may still outdo Stanton or at least Rodriguez, his childhood idol, his future earning power looks far less certain two-plus months into his trip to the open market. Free agency has been a surprisingly protracted process for Machado – who, along with Harper – remains available just a few weeks from spring training. And there has been a stunning lack of publicly reported teams after Machado, who counts the White Sox and Phillies among his most ardent suitors. Reports over the past week have indicated the White Sox issued either a seven-year, $175MM offer or an eight-year, $250MM proposal to Machado, either of which would’ve looked like a light guarantee for him at the beginning of the offseason. However, agent Dan Lozano released a strongly worded statement swatting down those rumors and insisting “reports on the details of the White Sox level of interest in Manny are completely wrong.”

Shortly after Lozano sent his denial to the media, new reports emerged suggesting serious interest in Machado stretches beyond Philadelphia and Chicago. There are supposedly two unnamed teams in the mix for Machado, and one, it seems, has put out the richest offer for the four-time All-Star infielder. Machado is reportedly primed to choose the highest bidder, but it’s unclear how close he is to signing. When the former Oriole and Dodger finally does put pen to paper, though, do you expect him to reel in a record-breaking guarantee?

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Who’ll Land Sonny Gray?

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Often, when reports emerge that a particular player is about to be traded, it isn’t long thereafter that the landing spot is reported. Today, there’s indication that the Yankees are closing in on a deal involving righty Sonny Gray, but it’s still not yet clear where he could be heading. That leaves an opening to do a quick poll to get the final predictions of MLBTR’s readers.

Gray, 29, could fit with quite a few organizations, even after a less-than-inspiring 2018 campaign. He’s an accomplished hurler who is slated to earn a rather reasonable $7.5MM for the coming season — a manageable rate of pay even if he’s not able to get back to producing high-end results.

With Gray having been marketed so heavily all winter long, the list of interested teams is by now well-known, though surely others could yet also be involved. In my chat today, I was asked about the possibility of him landing with at least half of the teams in baseball. Rather than trying to pick a narrower list for this poll, then, I’m throwing them all out there for you to sort through.

Where’ll Gray end up? (Link for app users; response order randomized.)

MLBTR Poll: Best Value On A High-AAV, Two-Year Deal

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Scanning down the board of MLBTR’s top fifty free agents, it’s easy to identify the large group of players who were good enough to command annual salaries approaching or exceeding ten million dollars, but as to whom contract length was in question entering the winter. Many of those players, in fact, have already agreed to terms.

With the dust having settled for such a large portion of the market, I thought it’d be interesting to see how MLBTR’s readership views some of those contracts. In making predictions on these players, we thought long and hard about where the deal would end up, often focusing on the question whether the player could secure a third guaranteed season. Some did; some didn’t.

Here, we’ll focus on those players who ended up with two-year contracts, when it seemed at least possible at the outset of the market that a lengthier deal would be available. The question is: which of these deals looks like the best buy for the team in question? (Response order randomized; link for app users.)

Poll: The LeMahieu And Lowrie Signings

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On Thursday, news broke that the Mets, one of the few teams who’d continued to kindle the Hot Stove throughout the winter, were again firing up, with the signing of 34-year-old Jed Lowrie. And then on Friday, amidst a chaotic deluge of arbitration settlements, the Yankees added to perhaps the league’s most crowded infield mix, signing second baseman (and now, perhaps, utility infielder) DJ LeMahieu.

On the surface, both deals were head-scratchers: the Mets, of course, just replaced a pop-up option at the keystone with a potential hall-of-famer, and already seemed set at third and short. First base was tentatively reserved for a Peter Alonso/Dominic Smith/J.D. Davis mix, and the team had spent much of this month assembling depth options of every sort. So where would Lowrie fit? And why wouldn’t the team have used its (ostensibly) few remaining resources where it needed it most, viz. in center field, or to tighten a loose mid-relief corps?

The Yankees, then, may have seized the enigmatic upper hand with Friday’s LeMahieu signing. Gleyber Torres, an early-season option at shortstop during Didi Gregorius’ absence, looked to have second-base on lock for the next half-dozen years at least, and the team has young, good, and very cheap options at the corner spots.  Plus, there’s the addition of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, brought in to hold down the early-season fort if he can make his way to the field, who seemed interested in New York only because of its clear path to playing time. LeMahieu has played positions other than his native second before, but none since 2014, since which time he’s entrenched himself as (arguably) the game’s premier defender at the position. Utility men don’t typically make $12MM a year, especially on the heels of two below-league-average offensive seasons, so perhaps the signing is a mere precursor to a move on a larger scale.

Lowrie has been excellent over the last two seasons, accruing 8.5 fWAR in 310 games. He appeared in more games last season, though, than he did from 2015-16, and nearly as many games in ’17 as he did from ’10-’12. Injuries have always been a major part of the profile, and the soon-to-be 35-year-old had mostly dropped the utility moniker in recent years, appearing only in cameo roles at positions other than second. So where will the team deploy him?  Third base is an option, but that’d move Todd Frazier to first, where, after three middling offensive seasons, he seems a disjointed fit at best. Such a move, too, would likely keep Peter Alonso in the minors, where the recurrence of a demolition tour would seem of little benefit to anyone. Lowrie probably doesn’t have the range for short at this point in his career, and a utility role wouldn’t be appropriate for someone of his pay grade. Perhaps Frazier will shift full-time to the bench, where the club already has much younger and much cheaper options, or is sent away in a back-page trade, netting a fringe return at best. Steamer, for its part, forecasts Lowrie to be just two percent better offensively than Frazier next season, so hoping for a straight upgrade seems presumptuous.

LeMahieu is part of the rare breed, since Statcast data was made public, to post well-above-average exit velocities and a well-below-average launch angle. The combo works for Christian Yelich, but for most others – Eric Hosmer, Ian Desmond – it spells disaster. If the Yanks can rework LeMahieu’s swing – he already boasts an opposite-field-dominated approach that should fit perfectly in their park – and transplant his defensive wizardry at second to another position(s), the club may have a bargain on its hand, but such an outcome seems unlikely. He doesn’t fit at first, and the club has now lost leverage in a potential Miguel Andujar trade. If the rookie-of-the-year runner-up can shore-up his defensive woes and find a bit better control of the strike zone, the Yankees are looking at a perennial all-star. With a value nowhere near his potential peak, shipping out Andujar now – or moving him to first base – seems altogether shortsighted.

Do you like the respective moves? Pick your answer in the poll below.

Looking At The Best Remaining Landing Spots For A.J. Pollock

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It was far from clear last winter when and where Lorenzo Cain would sign. Still, his status as the lone standout center fielder on the market gave confidence that he’d ultimately find a solid deal. That’s ultimately just what happened, as Cain landed just above MLBTR’s prediction (4/$70MM) with a five-year, $80MM pact.

This time around, A.J. Pollock entered the market without a terribly clear outlook. As with Cain, it was possible to imagine quite a few teams signing him, but hard to point to any particularly obvious fits. Likewise, he’s also obviously the best-available, up-the-middle outfield option. Pollock’s checkered health background led MLBTR to predict a contract of four years and $60MM, even though he has the edge on Cain in age.

So, how do things look now that the calendar has flipped to 2019? Though Pollock remains unsigned, the market has changed shape around him.

Several teams that seemed to be suitors may no longer be. Having signed Michael Brantley, the Astros don’t appear to be much of a fit. While the Mets would surely still like to upgrade, they seem to be limited financially from doing so, with the team evidently choosing to rely on bounceback candidates Juan Lagares and Keon Broxton up the middle. The Reds have added two veteran outfielders; if they were ever a likely suitor, they probably aren’t now.

It’s questionable, perhaps, whether the White Sox are still a plausible landing spot. On the one hand, the club just reached agreement with veteran Jon Jay, who has spent most of his career patrolling center. Of course, he’d also be a plausible corner piece. And it’s fair to wonder what the Chicago front office will do if it fails to land either Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. There still seem to be some scenarios where Pollock fits, depending upon how aggressive the organization ends up being.

Of course, the South Siders’ decisionmaking will surely also include reference to their division rivals in Cleveland. While the Indians have focused to this point on clearing salary, and may not be interested in adding any back, it’s also possible that they’ll find a way to squeeze in a significant contract. Pollock remains a strong roster fit, though the club does not need to focus up the middle specifically with Leonys Martin on hand.

The National League East also has a few possible landing spots. While the Phillies are weighing more significant additions, the team could still check back in after the Harper/Machado situations have further evolved. Innumerable possibilities — and lots of dollars — remain available to the Phils. It is less clear that the Braves will have the need and the willingness to chase down Pollock at this point, though they have been connected in the past. The club has other options up the middle, but could like the idea of utilizing Pollock at times in the corners while forming a ball-hawing, still offensively-capable outfield unit. Given the Atlanta organization’s recent history, though, it seems unlikely that it’ll chase the market.

Out west, the fit is yet more speculative. The Giants have long made some sense but aren’t exactly playing an active role in the offseason to this point. It’s possible to imagine a deal, but new president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi is no doubt realistic about the organization’s immediate outlook and will surely prefer not to tie up future payroll. There’s certainly a way to imagine the division-favorite Dodgers as a landing spot, particularly after the club dealt away a pair of right-handed-hitting outfielders, but signing a sizable deal with Pollock doesn’t really match the front office’s recent approach. Plus, Chris Taylor remains available as a right-handed-hitting center fielder.

Beyond those clubs, there are a few others that could be matches — but only if you squint. Pollock would be a luxury for the Rockies or Angels, but with other priorities and limitations those hopeful contenders likely won’t consider him at full price. The D-Backs would surely like to have Pollock back, but only at a discount. The Tigers or Rangers could still surprise, perhaps, as both have ample spending capacity against their historical levels, but there’s no reason at this point to believe that either club will hand out a long-term deal with little in the way of 2019 hopes and dreams. While the Athletics may or may not believe Ramon Laureano is ready to hold down near-everyday duties in center, they’re unlikely to allocate significant resources to the outfield with so many right-handed-hitting outfield options already available and ongoing rotation needs.

Given those considerations, where do you think Pollock is likeliest to land at this point? (Poll link for app users.)

Poll: The Mariners’ Direction

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The 2018 Mariners piled up 89 wins, their most victories in a season since 2003, but the club still extended its playoff drought to 17 years. No North American pro sports franchise owns a longer postseason-less streak than the Mariners, who have elected to radically reconstruct their major league roster and minor league farm system over the past couple months. Believing the Mariners were neither good enough to compete for a title nor bad enough to bottom out with the talent they had, general manager Jerry Dipoto set out to “re-imagine” their roster this winter. Dipoto has done just that in ultra-aggressive fashion, having traded one familiar veteran after another in hopes of assembling a roster capable of striving for relevance as early as 2020 or ’21.

Dating back to Nov. 8, the Mariners have shipped out catcher Mike Zunino, left-hander James Paxton, second baseman Robinson Cano, shortstop Jean Segura, first baseman Carlos Santana (acquired for Segura), outfielders Ben Gamel and Guillermo Heredia, and relievers Edwin Diaz, Juan Nicasio, Alex Colome and James Pazos. In return, the Mariners have received a few 30-something veterans (first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion, outfielder Jay Bruce and reliever Anthony Swarzak), substantial salary relief (including $64MM from the Cano trade) and a host of potential long-term pieces. The team’s hope is that recently acquired outfielder Mallex Smith, catcher Omar Narvaez, shortstop J.P. Crawford and outfielder Domingo Santana – all major leaguers who are controllable for three or more years – will be part of the solution for the foreseeable future, and it has the same plan for the bevy of prospects it has landed in its multitude of recent trades.

Prior to Dipoto’s November/December transactions spree, the Mariners had the majors’ worst farm system and none of MLB.com’s top-1oo prospects. But they got three such farmhands – lefty Justus Sheffield (No. 31), outfielder Jarred Kelenic (No. 62) and righty Justin Dunn (No. 89) – in those trades. Unsurprisingly, thanks to the additions of Sheffield, Kelenic, Dunn and an array of other prospects, the Mariners now boast one of the majors’ most improved systems, per Jim Callis of MLB.com.

Adding to the long-term optimism, the Mariners made a major strike in free agency to kick off the New Year when they signed Japanese lefty Yusei Kikuchi. While Kikuchi’s not on the level of countryman Shohei Ohtani, whom Dipoto badly wanted last winter before he signed with the division-rival Angels, he could nonetheless be a game-changing acquisition. Kikuchi will slot in near the top of the Mariners’ rotation immediately, and at 27, he’s young enough and controllable for long enough (possibly through 2025) that he could be a key factor for perennially contending Seattle clubs. The same applies to Smith, Narvaez, Crawford, Santana, Sheffield, Kelenic, Dunn (and the other acquired prospects), not to mention outfielder Mitch Haniger and left-hander Marco Gonzales.

Haniger and Gonzales – each controllable for the next handful of years – stand out as the most valuable players remaining from last season’s Mariners team. Both players, especially Haniger, no doubt possess high trade value, but it seems they’ll remain on hand as prominent members of Seattle’s next core. Still, with several other trade candidates on the roster (Encarnacion, Bruce, Swarzak, second baseman Dee Gordon, third baseman Kyle Seager and righty Mike Leake), the ever-active Dipoto may not be done flipping veterans for prospects and/or future salary room in advance of next season.

No matter what happens between now and Opening Day, the Mariners’ 2019 roster will look far different than it did last year, when the club tallied the majors’ 11th-most wins but once again fell short of a playoff spot. Are you on board with Seattle’s decision to take a step back in 2019 with the goal of becoming a perennial contender thereafter? Or should Dipoto & Co. have taken more of a win-now approach this winter in an effort to snap the team’s embarrassing playoff drought next season?

(poll link for app users)

Poll: Yasmani Grandal’s Next Contract

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Yasmani Grandal entered free agency as the clear-cut best catcher on the open market, but he remains without a job nearly two months after the offseason began. Part of that seems to be Grandal’s own doing, as the longtime Dodger reportedly turned down a generous proposal from the Mets – a four-year, $60MM offer. In the wake of Grandal’s rejection, the Mets pivoted to the No. 2 catcher in free agency, Wilson Ramos, whom they reeled in on a two-year, $19MM guarantee.

At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Grandal would score a four-year, $64MM contract and listed the Mets, Nationals, Rangers, Twins, Red Sox, Astros, Angels, Phillies, Braves and Rockies as potential suitors. The Twins, Red Sox, Astros, Philllies and Rockies could still be in the mix for the 30-year-old Grandal, though at least some of those teams may prefer to swing a deal for Marlins trade chip J.T. Realmuto.

It’s doubtful the other clubs are in on Grandal, on the other hand. The Nationals have already added Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki this winter, thus taking them out of the running for free-agent catchers who will garner major league contracts and Realmuto. The Rangers could still use a catcher, having parted with Robinson Chirinos at the start of the offseason and signed the offensively challenged Jeff Mathis, but it would be surprising to see the rebuilding franchise spend big on a 30-something player. The Angels showed interest in Grandal earlier this month, but they may be out of the equation after signing free agent Jonathan Lucroy on Friday. The Braves, meanwhile, re-signed Tyler Flowers toward the end of last season and then reunited with Brian McCann on a $2MM guarantee in free agency, giving them a pair of respected veterans.

While at least a few of the above teams may be eyeing Grandal, the only ones that have actually shown reported interest in him this winter have been the Dodgers, Reds, White Sox and the aforementioned Mets, Astros and Angels. It doesn’t appear Grandal’s going to return to the Dodgers in 2019, though, considering multiple reports have indicated they aren’t keen on bringing him back on anything other than a short-term deal. The White Sox have signed James McCann since they were first publicly connected to Grandal, and they also have capable veteran backstop Welington Castillo on hand. Cincinnati, which selected Grandal 12th overall in the 2010 draft, may still be a candidate to sign him, but it has a passable, low-cost starter in Tucker Barnhart and seems more focused on upgrading its rotation than its situation behind the plate.

The Dodgers already tried to bring Grandal back in 2019 on a $17.9MM qualifying offer, but he declined it, meaning it would cost a team significant major league payroll space, a draft pick and international bonus pool allotments to sign him. Grandal’s status as a QO recipient takes away from his appeal to some degree, yet he has nonetheless been among the majors’ most accomplished catchers over the past several years.

Since 2014, which he spent with the Padres, the switch-hitting Grandal ranks top five at his position in home runs (104; third), wRC+ (115; third) and fWAR (12.2; fifth). And while Grandal had some well-documented problems as a defender in the 2018 postseason, he’s still a highly regarded pitch framer who has thrown out a roughly league-average percentage of base stealers in his career. Clearly, then, Grandal shouldn’t have trouble finding a lucrative contract prior to next season. But it’s an open question whether he erred in saying no to the Mets’ $60MM offer.

(poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: The Padres’ Offseason Approach

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The Padres, owners of one 90-win season in the last two decades, remain mired in the latest iteration of what has amounted, over the club’s 50-year history, to something approximating a near-interminable rebuild.  This time, though, the club hasn’t taken half-measures, having carefully assembled a lot of prospects to rival any in the game’s history: indeed, by FanGraphs’ latest count, San Diego has a staggering 46 players who project to be major league contributors of some sort, including eight of the game’s top 75 prospects.

The major league team, though, has yet to reap the benefits. Highly touted outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot have graduated and quickly sputtered in their first exposures, and the club’s recent mound graduates, with the possible exception of the “churve”-hurling Joey Lucchesi, seem more of the back-end variety. The richly-paid duo of Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer has also failed to impress, with the latter riding his grounder-heavy ways to a near-replacement-level season for the fourth time in seven years, and the former posting a combined 2.3 fWAR since signing a huge extension prior to the 2017 season.

Holes abound elsewhere on the diamond: Myers, at midseason, tried his hand at third, to mostly disastrous results, and the club received meager-at-best production up the middle (though blue-chip prospects Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Urias are knocking loudly at the door). Franmil Reyes did open eyes in limited ’18 action, but he hardly seems suited for a corner-outfield spot, and his minor league numbers, in six seasons before last season’s AAA breakout, leave little by which to be encouraged (ditto Franchy Cordero). Catcher remains an issue, though Austin Hedges did show signs in the season’s second half.

On the mound, the club can hang its hat only on its always-stellar bullpen, with Kirby Yates, Craig Stammen, Jose Castillo, and Matt Strahm (who seems ticketed for a rotation audition in the Spring) all posting brilliant seasons in 2018. The rotation, apart from Robbie Erlin and his microscopic walk rate, was generally awful last season. Lucchesi led the charge with just 1.1 fWAR, while the rest of his rotation mates combined for a sickly 3.0 fWAR altogether. In short, it’s a team that could use an upgrade at very nearly every position on the diamond.

Still, the bleakness of the near-future outlook apparently hasn’t dissuaded the Front Office from scouring the trade market for major, short-term upgrades – in the last two months alone, the club has reportedly targeted Corey Kluber (link), Noah Syndergaard (link), J.T. Realmuto (link), and Marcus Stroman (link), among surely others.  Two of the four have exactly three years of control remaining (with Realmuto and Stroman having just two), but the Padres would be seem to be paying an unnecessary premium on the stars to contribute in 2019 and 2020, years in which the club has seemingly little chance to compete.

Does this strategy make sense?  Could the big-league ready prospects couple with the bonafide stars to form a legitimate contender in the next two seasons?  Or would the club be best-served to wait, see how their current crop progresses in the upcoming season, and re-evaluate in a year from now?  Pick your answer in the poll below.

Poll: Will The Indians Trade Corey Kluber?

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Entering the winter, it seemed to be a rather bleak trade market for starting pitching. That changed a bit when the Mariners opened up James Paxton for bidding. And we’ve seen some chatter on still-excellent but super-expensive D-Backs veteran Zack Greinke, though the latest indications are he could stay put. Ivan Nova and Tanner Roark have been dealt; Sonny Gray will be; and a few other bounce-back candidates (e.g. Marcus Stroman, Robbie Ray) have at least been talked about in negotiations.

There are some quality names on that list, to be sure. But none come with anywhere near the allure of Indians ace Corey Kluber, who checks more boxes than all but a few starters around the game. He’s extremely effective, with outstanding strikeout ability and elite control (career 9.8 K/9 vs. 1.9 BB/9). He’s a proven workhorse who’s rarely sidelined (five-straight 200-inning seasons). And he’s controllable at a very reasonable rate of pay ($52.5MM over three years, two via option). Though he’s already 32 years of age, that’s really the only flaw in the profile.

In some respects, it’s a total surprise to see Kluber’s name continuously run through the rumor mill. In others, it makes sense. The Indians have other needs to address and have already moved some prospect assets in recent seasons. No doubt they see the remainder of their pitching staff as an ongoing strength. And perhaps there’s also a belief that this is a clear opportunity to cash in on a not-youthful star hurler who comes with all the same risks of any other such pitcher. Indeed, at one point, it seemed nearly a fait accompli that Kluber (or rotation-mate Trevor Bauer) would be dealt this winter. Then, the Indians swung some other trades to shave payroll, perhaps enhancing their leverage with their key pitchers.

All things considered, it is presently unclear whether and how a deal might come together,. Recently, the Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, Reds, and Padres have been connected to Kluber to varying extents. It’s certainly not hard to imagine other clubs having interest at this stage of the winter. But the Indians surely won’t move Kluber unless they not only achieve commensurate value but also accomplish their roster goals — presumably, boosting the immediate outfield mix, trimming salary, and enhancing the organization’s long-term outlook. The ask will be high, but it surely ought to be. And teams considering Kluber won’t have any open-market alternatives, with Dallas Keuchel representing the best-available free agent hurler.

So, given where the market stands as a whole, do you think the Indians will end up dealing Kluber? (Link for app users.)

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