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MLBTR Polls: What Early Injury Worries You Most?

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While the sprint of 2020 gave urgency to the regular season, this year brought back the challenge of baseball’s marathon regular season.  The longer season brings greater health challenges. We’re particularly on edge for pitchers attempting to more than double their year-over-year workload. Hamstring injuries to position players have proven to be the more drastic bugaboo in the early going, however. Regardless, less than two weeks into 2021, the landscape has already begun to shift rosters and change odds.

The defending champs just placed Cody Bellinger on the 10-day injured list, while MVP runner-up Mookie Betts has been out of the lineup for a couple of games now. As much as a Dodgers lineup without Bellinger and Betts will boost some heart rates, neither injury appears to be serious – for now. The concern for all injuries, of course, goes beyond the time missed.

The Diamondbacks started the year with ace Zac Gallen on the shelf, and it took only one appearance for offseason addition and candidate-to-close Joakim Soria to join him on the shelf. Starters Nick Ahmed and Kole Calhoun have been out, though both recently returned to the lineup. Gallen should return this week too, but now Ketel Marte is out with a strained hamstring. Marte’s injury hurts all the more, not only because he’s become the face of the franchise in the post-Paul-Goldschmidt era, but because he was off to a rip-roaring start to the season with a 259 wRC+ through six games.

The Padres might have the scariest injury of all this season, as the centerpiece of their organization, Fernando Tatis Jr., dislocated his shoulder at the plate. Shoulder subluxation is the technical term, but a slight tear in his left labrum is the term to make you wince. Tatis is already working his way back, but this is going to be a pins-and-needles situation for the rest of the season, not only for the Padres, but for the league, as Tatis Jr. has rapidly become the face of the “let the kids play” generation. The Padres have also dealt with injuries to Trent Grisham, Dinelson Lamet, Austin Nola, Pierce Johnson, Michel Baez, and others. The Padres offseason spending spree all but guaranteed that they have the depth to contend, but the injuries are piling up.

Bad news has not been unique to the NL West, however. The Nationals started the season with a COVID-19 outbreak, which delayed their opening series and placed nine players on the injured list on Opening Day. Patrick Corbin made his return the other night, but he was rusty, and they still have yet to see Kyle Schwarber, Josh Bell, Josh Harrison, Jon Lester, or Will Harris.

The Mets knew they’d be without Noah Syndergaard for the first half, but Carlos Carrasco has joined him on the injured list, as have key bullpen arms in Dellin Betances and Seth Lugo. J.D. Davis is out now as well, though Jonathan Villar should grant them cover at the hot corner until Davis returns.

In the American League, the White Sox head the list of forlorn head-shakers. Eloy Jimenez tore his pectoral late in spring, forcing the ChiSox to lean early on their questionable depth. First base prospect Andrew Vaughn and spring-training-castoff Billy Hamilton made for a patchwork timeshare, but Hamilton is out now as well. Tim Anderson, mercurial leadoff man and heartbeat of the roster, is also out with – you guessed it – a hamstring injury. How innocent it seemed when the team’s fourth outfielder Adam Engel went on the injured list at the end of Spring Training, but it’s only gotten worse since then.

Like the White Sox, the Blue Jays are a popular pick for the “it” team of 2021, but they’ve been without star pitching prospect Nate Pearson and prized offseason addition George Springer. Robbie Ray has been activated for his season debut, but closer Kirby Yates may never even throw a pitch for the Blue Jays. Yates needs Tommy John surgery, and he’ll miss the season.

The Astros got their injury heartbreak early enough to pivot before the season even started. They knew they’d be without Justin Verlander, but Framber Valdez’s season is now in doubt as well. Losing Valdez particularly smarts, given the breakout he enjoyed in 2020. They’re also without Austin Pruitt, Pedro Baez, Enoli Paredes, Andre Scrubb, and Josh James. They were able to add Jake Odorizzi, but will he be enough?

The A’s got a real punch in the gut with A.J. Puk’s injury news. It might be funny if it weren’t so tragic: Puk shined in his season debut, only to find himself back on the injured list. The same can be said for Trevor Rosenthal, a savvy offseason addition to replace departed closer Liam Hendriks without the long-term financial commitment. It took a season and a half for Rosenthal to re-calibrate after Tommy John surgery, but he seemed to have found the form that made him a star closer for the Cardinals early in his career. Oakland’s $11MM investment is now on the 60-day injured list.

The Rays lost Nick Anderson and large swaths of their bullpen, as have the Yankees, who are down a couple of southpaws and their first baseman. A strained oblique sent Adalberto Mondesi to the injured list on Opening Day. Josh Donaldson doubled in his first plate appearance – and then headed to the injured list. The Rangers have done a full line change in the bullpen, and veterans James Paxton, Dexter Fowler, and Seranthony Dominguez are all out for the year.

The first punches of the 2021 season have been thrown. Some teams have had better luck than others, but all face the reality of a long season. Injuries are not the fun part of the game, but they are a part of baseball. If nothing else, every injury provides an opportunity for somebody else. Narratives change, but baseball continues, and we crown new heroes every day. After all, Adam Wainwright’s iconic strikeout of Carlos Beltran in the 2006 postseason never happens if Jason Isringhausen isn’t injured in September, for example. Tom Brady doesn’t get a chance to start if Drew Bledsoe isn’t injured. And so on.

Which team’s new reality is most disconcerting? Which team’s early injuries have changed their long-term fortunes the most? And who did I leave out? (Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Will Mets Extend Francisco Lindor?

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The Mets are seemingly running out of time to extend their prized offseason acquisition, shortstop Francisco Lindor. The 27-year-old, who earned four All-Star nods with the Indians before joining the Mets in a blockbuster winter trade, has made it clear he will not negotiate a new contract when the regular season begins Thursday. That means he could become the leading free agent on the board next offseason.

Although the Mets and Lindor are closing in on his self-imposed deadline, they’re not yet moving toward an agreement, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv. The Mets have made Lindor a franchise-record offer worth around $325MM over 10 years, Martino writes, and Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets it’s “believed” the club will not make him another proposal before his deadline. Expectations across the industry are that the two sides will hammer out an agreement, Martino relays, though Lindor is looking for a deal in the 12-year, $400MM range, according to Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News. Indeed, Lindor’s camp has made the Mets a 12-year, $385MM counteroffer, Tim Healey of Newsday reports.

It appears there is a wide gap to close, but it should help the Mets’ chances that they have baseball’s richest owner, Steve Cohen, who had dinner with Lindor on Saturday. Cohen addressed the Lindor situation in a pre-recorded online Q&A with Mets announcer Wayne Randazzo and fans (via Ken Davidoff the New York Post), saying, “It takes two people to sign a contract, not one.” He added: “Well, we have a deadline [March] 31, today is the 29th. It either will or won’t in the next two days.” 

What do you think? Will Cohen & Co. get it done? (Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Polls: Padres Versus Blue Jays Bullpen Showdown

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The Toronto Blue Jays uncharacteristically spent much of the offseason in the spotlight, exhausting their Rolodex to add talent in free agency. As a result, their lineup, to borrow a phrase, is in the best shape of its life. Yet, doubts about their status as contenders prevail, largely because of a perceived lack of high-end firepower in the rotation. They brought Robbie Ray back, but otherwise added only Steven Matz coming off a disastrous season in New York. Though Matz has impressed so far, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, the rotation anxiety is warranted. Arguably, however, the bullpen poses a greater threat to the Jays as they attempt to unseat the Rays and Yankees atop the American League East.

GM Ross Atkins landed stud closer Kirby Yates in free agency, and despite just two appearances this spring, they’re ready to commit to the former Padre as their closer, writes Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star. There was little doubt, though the 34-year-old is hardly unblemished. He made just six appearances last year before undergoing surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. Thus, he’s not likely to shoulder a workhorse burden as a 70-80 inning arm out of the pen. So while the glory and the title will belong to Yates, the responsibility of holding leads weighs just as heavily on arms like Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis, Tyler Chatwood and David Phelps.

Romano burst onto the scene as a legitimate weapon with a 1.23 ERA and 36.8 percent strikeout rate in 2020, while Rafael Dolis returned stateside for the first time since 2013 to post an equally impressive 1.50 ERA and 31.0 percent strikeout rate. Both had FIPs roughly a run and a half higher than their ERAs, however, and could be in line for at least a touch of regression in 2021. Newcomers Chatwood and Phelps are pro arms, but they lack the pedigree of high-leverage, first-division bullpen stalwarts.

Julian Merryweather has some potential to pop as a multi-inning option. The Blue Jays aim to get the 29-year-old right-hander around 100 total innings. He’s 29 years old with only 13 career innings in the Majors, but he’s long been an intriguing talent. Armed with a fastball that averages close to 97 mph, Merryweather is at least worth watching as a potential difference-maker. The Jays hoped Tom Hatch might be another sleeper, but they await a status update on elbow inflammation, per Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter).

From the left side, Francisco Liriano, Ryan Borucki, and Anthony Kay are the most likely to make the roster. The 37-year-old Liriano has been in the Majors since 2005, but the 3.47 ERA he posted last season in Pittsburgh was his best ERA or FIP since his first Pirates’ tenure in 2015. Kay has a higher ceiling, but he has yet to establish himself at the big-league level.

On the whole, the Blue Jays very much require Yates to actualize as the guy who locked down 53 saves with a 1.67 ERA/1.93 FIP for the Padres from 2018-19. If he doesn’t return to that form, the bottom could fall out for this group; a rudderless unit is prone to spiral.

Speaking of Yates’ former club, the Padres, too, are working to establish a new pecking order at the back end of the bullpen. Yates left town, but so did his replacement Trevor Rosenthal. The Padres exported another potential closer in Andres Munoz to the Mariners last August. Luis Patiño could have been used out of the bullpen as well, had he not been included in the Blake Snell deal.

Unlike the Blue Jays, however, the Padres have made repeated efforts to replenish their bullpen reserves with veteran, battle-tested arms. While keeping Craig Stammen in the fold, the Padres added Drew Pomeranz and Pierce Johnson in free agency last winter. They supplemented that crew with free agent additions Mark Melancon and Keone Kela this year. President of Baseball Ops and GM A.J. Preller didn’t stop there, however. He exhausted the trade market as well, netting Tim Hill from the Royals and Emilio Pagan from the Rays prior to 2020. Then, in the deal that sent Munoz to the Mariners, Preller acquired Dan Altavilla and Austin Adams, the latter of whom continues to work his way back from injury. Even non-roster invitee Nabil Crismatt has impressed so far this spring.

Should that deep pool of arms prove insufficient, the Padres can fall back on their depth of prospect arms like MacKenzie Gore, Ryan Weathers, Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez, and others. For now, Morejon looks like he’ll start the year in the rotation, notes Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, but roles are certain to change throughout the season.

On a roster that includes 282 career saves, it’s Pagan who appears closest to nabbing the title of closer, writes Acee. Pagan had a difficult 2020, but the team believes right arm pain was a significant mitigating factor in his 4.50 ERA/4.69 FIP. He saved just two games last year, but he is only a year removed from locking down 20 saves for the Rays. He has averaged seven holds per season over the last four.

Granted, Pagan’s fastball velocity was down from 95.5 mph in 2019 to 94.5 mph in 2020. Even dropping velocity, his high-spin four-seamer showed elite vertical rise. He’ll weaponize it up in the zone, contrasting with his cutter, which zags where the fastball zigs.

Bottom line, the Blue Jays and Padres both field strong relief units – but both can reasonably chart a path to future adversity, though differently so. While Pagan isn’t the most experienced arm in the Padres’ pen – that would be Melancon with his 205 career saves – he’s certainly capable closing games. If not, the Padres have no shortage of alternatives, even with the threat of injury looming. The counterpoint: as they say in football, a team with three quarterbacks has none. For the Blue Jays, Yates won’t have nearly as much internal competition breathing down his neck, but that also means less of a safety net. The Jays don’t boast the diversity of options the Padres do –  what they have is three arms in Yates, Romano, and Dolis who posted sub-2.00 ERA’s in their last full season.

Different approaches, but the same goal: preserve leads and win enough ballgames to make the playoffs and contend for a title. Which bullpen do you trust more? What grade would you give each bullpen heading into 2021? Lastly, in a draft for 2021 comprised only of the veterans in the Padres ’and Blue Jays’ bullpens, I’m curious know what who MLBTR readers trust the most. Between both teams, who is the guy you’d want closing games on a contender?

(links for app users: poll 1, poll 2, poll 3, poll 4)

MLBTR Poll: Projecting The 2021 Rays

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The Rays are one of the more fascinating teams to project almost every year. Next season should be no exception. Tampa Bay went 40-20 in last year’s shortened season, entering the postseason as the American League’s top seed. The Rays made good on that status, knocking off the Blue Jays, Yankees and Astros in successive series to claim their first pennant in twelve years. A six-game defeat at the hands of the Dodgers in the Fall Classic kept the franchise from their first World Series title, but there’s no doubt the 2020 season was a success.

Whether they followed that up with a quality offseason is debatable. Tampa Bay declined a club option on Charlie Morton and traded away Blake Snell, subtracting two of their top three pitchers. Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough are back, likely aided by offseason additions Chris Archer, Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Collin McHugh and Luis Patiño. The bullpen was an area of strength for the Rays in 2020. That figures to again be the case, with Nick Anderson, Pete Fairbanks and Diego Castillo leading a talented group that throws wildly varying profiles and arm angles at opposing lineups.

There’s a lot more continuity on the position player side. The Rays bring back nine of the ten players who took at least 100 plate appearances last year (Hunter Renfroe being the player who departed). Yet while the offense was very good during the regular season in 2020, the bats largely went cold in the playoffs (with postseason star Randy Arozarena an obvious exception). Should we expect a return to form from those regulars who propped up a lineup that was the league’s eighth-best (by wRC+) in the regular season? There’s also the potential for baseball’s top prospect, Wander Franco, to make an impact this year, although that unsurprisingly won’t be at the start of the season.

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system forecasts a season in the 87-win range; their median outcome has Tampa Bay finishing second in the AL East (behind the Yankees) but securing a Wild Card spot. FanGraphs’ Depth Charts aren’t as optimistic, pegging the Rays at 84 wins and behind the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox in the division. Splitting the difference, we’ll set the over/under at 85.5 wins. Should we expect another postseason run for the Rays in 2021?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The AL West?

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George Springer, Marcus Semien, Liam Hendriks, Lance Lynn….it seemed that for much of the offseason, the news out of the AL West focused on what stars were leaving the division, rather than joining.  It has made for an intriguing divisional race as we approach Opening Day, so let’s run down the contenders as per Fangraphs’ projected standings.

The Astros are judged to be the best of the bunch, projected for an 89-73 record despite losing Springer, potentially losing other still-unsigned free agents (i.e. Josh Reddick, Roberto Osuna), and losing Justin Verlander last season to Tommy John surgery.  On the plus side, the Astros brought a couple of key offensive players back into the mix by re-signing Michael Brantley and Yuli Gurriel, and they added Jake Odorizzi to a bolster an injury-hampered rotation.  There are certainly some question marks on Houston’s roster, but the core group of talent might be enough to capture the division.

Clocking in with an 84-78 projection, matching this record would give the Angels their fourth-highest win total since 2012 — Mike Trout’s first full season in the big leagues.  The Halos’ inability to build a winner around their superstar has been a sore point for both Orange County fans and perhaps the baseball world at large, but comparatively speaking, the Angels also didn’t suffer as many major personnel losses this winter as their division rivals did.  While the Angels didn’t make any blockbuster acquisitions, they did aim to get better, adding such second-tier veterans as Raisel Iglesias, Jose Quintana, Alex Cobb, Jose Iglesias, Dexter Fowler, and Kurt Suzuki.  With Trout and Anthony Rendon anchoring the lineup and Shohei Ohtani perhaps healthy again, do the Angels have enough to finally get back to the postseason?

The reigning AL West champion Athletics are projected for a modest 83-79 mark, as Oakland lost some significant veteran talent in Semien, Hendriks, Robbie Grossman, Joakim Soria, and Tommy La Stella.  Of course, the A’s have made a habit of overachieving in the Billy Beane era, and they do have a lot of promising young arms.  If the pitching staff can healthy and even a couple of hurlers make the proverbial leap, the A’s might have one of the sport’s better rotations.  On the offensive side, Oakland is hoping Elvis Andrus thrives with a change of scenery, and that Matt Chapman and Matt Olson hit a bit more like their usual selves.

If the three front-runners all have their weak spots, is there an opportunity for an underdog to emerge?  Fangraphs doesn’t thinks so, as both the Mariners (74-88) and Rangers (72-90) are projected to fall well back of the pack, yet it isn’t as if either team is bereft of talent.  Seattle has a lot of promising young players that could possibly break out early and help Marco Gonzales, Kyle Seager, and bounce-back candidate James Paxton steal some wins.  The Rangers made some interesting additions in Dane Dunning, Nate Lowe, and David Dahl, plus you figure Texas is due for some better offensive luck considering virtually the entire team (even star Joey Gallo) had down years at the plate in 2020.

So, the question remains, who will end up as AL West champions?  (Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Projecting The 2021 Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays were one of the more active teams in baseball this offseason. Rumored to be interested in virtually every high-profile player on the free agent or trade markets, Toronto eventually made a handful of key additions, none bigger than George Springer. The former Astros star was followed by Marcus Semien, who rounds out a potentially star-studded infield of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio. An outfield of Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Teoscar Hernández has the potential to be similarly impressive, at least offensively.

Toronto was also active in adding to the pitching staff, but there’s a lot less certainty in that area. The Jays brought back Robbie Ray and acquired Steven Matz in a trade with the Mets. Those players are coming off down years, though, as are fellow projected rotation members Tanner Roark and Ross Stripling. Only Hyun-jin Ryu looks like a sure bet to provide quality production as a starter.

It’s something of a similar story in the bullpen. Kirby Yates, Tyler Chatwood and David Phelps bring varying degrees of upside as offseason acquisitions. However, due to either injury or poor performance, none of that trio got good results in 2020 (although in Phelps’ case, that seems to be a product of unsustainably dreadful home run luck). Is that enough to make up for a relief corps that, despite strong performances from Rafael Dolis and Jordan Romano, was well below-average by both ERA (4.71) and K% – BB% (10.7 points) in 2020?

Let’s turn to the 2021 projections. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projects the Jays for a typical season in the 85-win range. FanGraphs’ Depth Charts system is more bullish, pegging Toronto as an 88-win team. We’ll split the difference: over or under 86.5 wins for the Blue Jays in 2021?

(poll link for app users)

 

Top Remaining MLB Free Agents

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The Astros’ agreement with Jake Odorizzi on a three-year contract yesterday removed the top remaining free agent from the market. Even into the second week of spring training games, though, there are a few potentially valuable players available to teams.

  • Rick Porcello: MLBTR’s #46 free agent entering the offseason, Porcello made 12 starts for the Mets in 2020. His 5.64 ERA isn’t eye-catching, but Porcello logged a more respectable 4.45 SIERA. The 32-year-old isn’t a particularly exciting option at this stage of his career, but he’s been an extremely durable innings-eater, and we’re entering a year where reliable innings might be more valuable than ever coming off the shortened season.
  • Cole Hamels: Hamels is the other of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents still unsigned, having placed 47th on the list. 2020 was a lost season for Hamels, who was limited to a single start by shoulder issues. He was still plenty productive as recently as 2019, though.
  • Shane Greene: The rumor mill has been surprisingly quiet for the reliable Greene. His peripherals don’t support the 2.60 ERA he put up for the Braves last season, and it’s alarming that his strikeout rate fell by six points last year. Greene has been something of a bullpen workhorse in recent years, though, and he generally does a decent job avoiding hard contact.
  • Maikel Franco: The 28-year-old didn’t live up to expectations as the regular third baseman in Philadelphia. But he had a decent 2020 season after signing with the Royals, hitting .278/.321/.457 with eight home runs in 243 plate appearances. The Orioles are among the teams interested in Franco, whose market is now “heating up” after a slow winter.
  • Jedd Gyorko: Gyorko’s name hasn’t appeared on MLBTR’s pages since the Brewers declined his club option last October. That’s a bit surprising given Gyorko’s performance in limited playing time last season. The 32-year-old hit a very productive .248/.333/.504 and looks like a decent right-handed platoon option at the corner infield spots.

There are a handful more who could plausibly claim to be the top free agent remaining. Roberto Osuna, Yasiel Puig, Edwin Encarnación and Homer Bailey are among the others unsigned. How does the MLBTR readership feel about the remaining crop of free agents?

(poll link for app users)

 

MLBTR Poll: Should The Twins Extend Byron Buxton?

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The Twins have high expectations for their offense in 2021. It’s a talented group with veterans Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson playing alongside young players on the rise like Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers, and Luis Arraez. In the middle both metaphorically and positionally, however, centerfielder Byron Buxton undergirds the Twins’ machine in both halves of the inning. He’s the player on the roster with the highest two-way ceiling, and at 27 years old, he’s in his prime. He’s also two years from free agency. Buxton’s agent has been in contact with the Twins about a potential extension, per Phil Miller of the Star Tribune (via Twitter), but there’s a lot for the Twins to consider.

Defense has long been Buxton’s calling card. He is routinely one of the more impressive performers in the grass, and the numbers back it up. He has averaged 18.3 defensive runs saved and 9.8 UZR per 1,200 innings, which roughly amounts to one season. Both are excellent marks. Statcast is similarly complimentary of Buxton’s glovework, crediting him with five outs above average in 2020. That tied with four others for sixth among outfielders, despite only appearing in 39 games. In 2017, when Buxton was healthy enough to play more than 100 games, he racked up 30 OAA, not only topping the field in that season, but setting the bar. It remains the highest single-season mark from any outfielder in the Statcast era by a fair margin.

Buxton entered the league less polished on the other end, but he has nonetheless come into his own over the past two seasons. Early in his career, he was plagued by strikeout rates over 30 percent, only average power, and well-below-average walk rates. The latter still holds true, but the Twins want him swinging the bat because good things happen when he does. His exit velocity has surged from 88.3 mph in 2015-18 to 90.4 mph the past two seasons. His power has climbed into an elite range as well, rising from .157 ISO his first four seasons to .292 ISO in 430 plate appearances across 2019-20. A bat that was 23 percent below average through 2018 has been 13 percent above average since.

Put together, Buxton’s potential is that of a two-way centerpiece at one of the most important positions on the diamond. The Twins have to be tempted to find a way to keep the former number two overall pick in a Twins uniform long-term. Buxton would like to stay in Minnesota, but the Twins are focused on keeping him healthy in 2021, per the Athletic’s Dan Hayes.

Though the idea of Buxton wearing a Twins uniform long-term is tantalizing, the injury concerns are real. The Twins have placed Buxton on the injured list no less than 13 times since he’s been in their organization, with the ailments ranging from concussions to wrist sprains to shoulder issues. The Georgia native hasn’t seen his skills affected, however. He remains one of the fastest players in the game, finishing in the 99th percentile for sprint speed in every season of his career. He turned in a strong batted ball profile in 2020 as well, landing in the 85th percentile for exit velocity, 89th percentile for hard hit percentage, and 88th percentile for barrel percentage.

Finding the right price point for such a high-risk, high-ceiling player will be a challenge for the Twins and Buxton’s representatives at Jet Sports Management. The muddled centerfield market certainly doesn’t help matters. Despite it being one of the weaker positions around the game, Jackie Bradley Jr. struggled to find the kind of deal he was looking for and ultimately settled on a two-year, $24MM offer with an opt-out. Meanwhile, George Springer had no trouble securing a deal, signing in Toronto for six years and $150MM. There were no free agent centerfielders to sign a multi-year deal last winter. The year before it was AJ Pollock joining the Dodgers for five years, $60MM and Andrew McCutchen signing a three-year, $50MM deal with the Phillies. Neither player primarily plays center anymore, however. Lorenzo Cain signed a five-year, $80MM deal with the Brewers the year before that.

Pollock is a natural comp as an oft-injured potential star in center, but he was entering his age-31 season as a free agent, two years younger than Buxton would be after 2022. Cain was also 31, so was Dexter Fowler when he signed with the Cardinals, so will be Springer and Bradley in the first seasons of their new deals. Suffice is to say that it’s hardly a simple task to project what Buxton might find in free agency – especially two years from now under the conditions of a new CBA. The Twins have maintained flexibility in long-term payroll, with their luxury tax payroll falling from ~$147MM this year to ~$66MM in commitments for 2022 and ~$57MM the year after.

But let’s put the financial parameters of a deal to the side for now, and consider the question simply. Should the Twins try to sign Buxton to a long-term deal?

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The NL Central?

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The National League Central looks as if it will be the most wide-open division in Major League Baseball when the regular season opens in a few weeks. Minus the Pirates, who figure to contend for the worst record in the league this year, it appears anyone could take the Central. The Cubs, Cardinals, Reds and Brewers were all playoff teams in 2020, and only five games separated the division winner (Chicago) from the fourth-place finisher (Milwaukee).  This past offseason would have been an opportune time for any of the Central’s teams to establish itself as the clear front-runner, but it doesn’t appear anyone separated itself from the pack.

The Cardinals made the biggest move in the division over the winter when they acquired third baseman Nolan Arenado from the Rockies. But other than that and re-signing right-hander Adam Wainwright and catcher Yadier Molina, they were pretty quiet.

The Cubs worsened their rotation when they traded away 2020 NL Cy Young-contending starter Yu Darvish to the Padres in a deal that netted them fellow righty Zach Davies. They also reunited with righty Jake Arrieta, who once won a Cy Young in their uniform but has since devolved into a back-end starter, and swapped out one flawed corner outfielder (Kyle Schwarber) for another (Joc Pederson).

The Reds said goodbye to last year’s Cy Young winner, Trevor Bauer, who signed with the Dodgers. They also cut ties with two accomplished relievers – Raisel Iglesias and Archie Bradley – though their bullpen did gain Sean Doolittle, Noe Ramirez and Cam Bedrosian. On the position player side, it doesn’t appear they adequately addressed shortstop, where they ranked 27th in the majors with 0.1 fWAR last year. Barring last-minute changes, they’re going to rely on some mix of Kyle Farmer, Jose Garcia and Dee-Strange Gordon, which isn’t particularly reassuring.

The Brewers, meanwhile, have reeled in two high-profile free agents in recent weeks, having signed former Cards second baseman Kolten Wong and ex-Red Sox outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. At the very least, they should give the Brewers a pair of average regulars, largely because of the outstanding defense they typically provide. The Brewers are also getting back Lorenzo Cain, who sat out most of last season, and he’ll join Bradley and former MVP Christian Yelich in what should be a strong outfield.

Aside from Pittsburgh, FanGraphs’ preseason odds give every team in the division a realistic chance at coming out on top. The Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs and Reds are all projected to win between 78 and 81 games. Which of those four do you think is the favorite?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The JBJ Signing

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One of the final high-ranked free agents came off the board Thursday when longtime Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. inked a two-year, $24MM contract with the Brewers. Bradley will make $13MM this year, and then he’ll have to decide whether to exercise an $11MM player option for 2022 next winter.

Few would have expected the Brewers to sign Bradley, but now that he’s part of the team, the 30-year-old should further strengthen their outfield. He won’t be their No. 1 center fielder – that job still belongs to Lorenzo Cain, who’s back after opting out of the majority of last season – but will join left fielder Christian Yelich to form a rather promising starting trio. The Brewers also have Avisail Garcia on hand as a fourth outfielder.

In Bradley, the Brewers are getting someone who had one of his most productive offensive years during his last year in Boston (120 wRC+ in 217 plate appearances). However, Bradley has typically been closer to OK than great at the plate, having slashed .239/.321/.412 (93 wRC+) with 98 home runs since he entered the majors in 2013. But Bradley ups his value with well-regarded base running and outstanding work in the field, where he has accumulated 53 Defensive Runs Saved and notched a 36.5 Ultimate Zone Rating across over 7,400 innings in the outfield.

Based on his history, the Brewers seem to have landed at least an average regular in Bradley, and if he’s at peak form, he could certainly amount to much more than that in their uniform. As such, it seems like a reasonable gamble – one that could improve Milwaukee’s chances of winning a wide-open National League Central in 2021. What do you think of the move?

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