12:16pm: In a follow-up piece today, Acee writes that the Friars expect to land at a payroll of $130MM to $140MM. Given the team’s existing commitments, that doesn’t leave space to tack on a top-shelf free agent.
Indeed, per Acee, the Friars simply “don’t see a way to fit another mega contract.” With Boras asking for $180MM or more for Strasburg, over a six-year term, the San Diego organization may be tapping out early. Acee does note that Zack Wheeler could still be a consideration, though he seems increasingly likely to top nine figures himself with widespread early interest.
8:16am: We know the Padres are going to do something to get better this winter — or, at least, that’s the strong indication emanating from the club — but it’s still to be seen what, when, and how GM A.J. Preller will strike. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Tribune-Review describes the sense of anticipation in the San Diego organization, explaining that top-level free-agent pursuit and/or major trades involving highly regarded prospects are likely to be pursued vigorously in the coming weeks.
Unsurprisingly, Acee views the trade market as the “most likely way” for the Friars to press the go button. While the team has pounced on major free-agent signings and is expected to explore them again — local product Stephen Strasburg is a particularly enticing possibility — the team already has quite a lot of its payroll committed.
There are still some ways to change that situation. The organization could boost its spending now that it’s ready to win. It could also utilize some of its prospect base to help move unwanted contracts off the books, thus freeing salary space to buy other players. We broke down the many factors and possibilities in our recent preview of the Friars’ offseason.
Regardless, Preller is surely exploring a wide variety of trade scenarios — and doing so with a different mandate than he has previously. Chairman Ron Fowler has already made clear his expectations for the 2020 campaign, and he explained further how the team’s strategy will change as a result.
Fowler explains that the club is now largely finished with assessment of young talent and is ready to view its prospects as “currency.” The Padres, he says, have “a lot of guys we can package and come up with what we need to be a better team that can win a lot more games in 2020, and that’s our objective.”
That statement is laden with possibilities. With loads of talent at all levels of the farm system, as well as younger MLB players that could hold appeal, the Friars have a stock of trade chips that could unlock the doors to an awful lot of quality big leaguers.
But does this mean that rival organizations can expect to command overwhelming early trade packages from the Padres? Preller says the club will stick to its guns. “We have specific value on each one of our players and a value on the guys we have a chance to trade for,” he said at the outset of the GM Meetings. If the numbers don’t match up, Preller says the club will be “patient.”
It’s an interesting mix of public statements from the San Diego brass. Preller’s “rock star” status has waxed and waned over the years; on occasion, he has delivered blockbusters. At other times, heavy rumors of big moves have simply petered out. This winter, there’s an argument for bold early action to get the jump on the market … but also for settling into the kind of plodding staring contest that has characterized the past two hot-stove seasons.
Whatever the process, one thing seems clear: when the season gets underway, Preller’s roster will need to deliver good old fashioned, actual MLB wins. The objective, per Fowler, is to “win a lot more games in 2020.” Otherwise, the San Diego organization could be forced into a much broader overhaul.
as they should. no room for all those prospects, might as well put that depth to use.
Here we go !! Red Sox are the first call.., Mookie trade for some talent to fenway and Pawtucket.
Plenty of room for all those prospects…. especially when those prospects rarely turn into major league talent in San Diego.
to be fair, theyve struck gold on most of the guys theyve traded for in recent years. (Tatis, Paddack, perhaps Naylor, almost Luis Castillo) id be wary of trading for Padres prospects for fear that the ones they are willing to part with will ultimately go bust.
Except there isn’t. The Padres are facing a 40-man roster crunch. If they don’t start moving guys, they’re going to lose them in the Rule 5 draft in a month.
They’ve already protected almost everyone who they had a decent chance of losing. All that’s left is Esteury Ruiz and maybe Buddy Reed and Jorge Oña. Deadline to set the 40-man roster for the Rule 5 draft is a week from tmrw.
The Padres only need to protect 1 maybe 2 players from the Rule 5 draft. Kinsler and Martini are good cuts to make that happen.
I like Martini. He’s a LH contact bat and on-base machine with pretty good OF defense. Just what we need, IMO.
True, BP (before Preller). Towers and others pretty much only drafted and got a star in Tony Gwynn in the first 45 years. This was with approximately 50 rounds per draft—now that is way beyond pitiful. Preller has been here several years now. He pretty much dumped the loser bums drafted by his GM predecessors when he got here. Made one attempt to go with big names in trade his first year here. Those acquired dummy veterans all of a sudden decided they either didn’t want to play anymore or forgot how to perform at levels of prior achievement. So, in summary, Preller either could’ve kept the lame, loser prospects he inherited when he go here and played them or indeed made trades for Johnny-come-lately I-don’t-know-how-to-play-anymore veterans. Either way, the Padres were still losers. That’s a fact. In 2018 and 2019, Preller has had the top-ranked farm in MLB. MLB experts (not you fools) rated Preller’s prospects the best farm system. The same experts rated the farms of all the rest of the clubs as inferior to Preller’s. Think about these facts dummies—Preller has the best farm for 2 years now since his start 5 years ago. He’s only had 4 drafts. In all farm systems, it takes several years for any top prospect to arrive in the majors. Preller is at a minimum on schedule. So, know what you’re talking about before you open that piehole under your nose.
The biggest part of “Preller’s Farm” came through International signings (including a spending spree in 2016 that came with 100% taxes and penalties) and a couple of trades – not the draft.
Yes and the 4 guys who got the biggest signing bonuses from that 2016 spending spree (Adrian Morejon, Jorge Oña, Luiz Almanzar and Michel Baez) have been major disappointments. Then the gem of the class, Luis Patiño, signed for a whopping $120k.
Yeah, and 90% of all “prospects” fail, “Show me”, so what’s your point?
My point is in the results. Preller has done it as a GM building a good farm system. Those results are in.
Can AJP’s system convert prospects into MLB players into wins? Well, 29 other non-World Series winning teams each season are trying to do the same thing. It’s no slam dunk, nor is it an indictment if Preller fails in 2020, where so many in baseball have failed before.
You’ve got some weird baseball arguments, “Show me”.
But remember quality vs quantity.
DISCLAIMER: Not a real world example.
Pretend we have a 20-80 grade scale. Each team gets 6 prospects.
Team a players: 60,50,50,50,50,40
Team b players: 80,80,70,20,20,10
Team a has average rank of 50, and 300 total points.
Team b has average rank of a hair under 47, and 280 total points.
Who’s better? I prefer the tea b that shows 3 elite prospects, rather than team a which just has a big pile of middle road talent.
“Best farm” has a lot of spin. But it’s possible for the inferior farm to have stronger impact talent if the “better farm” is chock full of incomplete players with holes in their game dragging things to replacement level players.
And that’s the question. Preller has accumulated a bunch of….. something. Are enough superstars in the mix? Who knows. But owe ship seems to have said STOP COLLECTING
Dave Winfield May beg to differ on your characterization of those first 45 years.
Peavy in his prime was not in either Gwynn’s league or Winfield’s but would have met or exceeded any franchise’s expectations as well.
And Mat Latos. In spite of being a headcase, he pitched very well for the Pads.
Besides, it’s impossible to talk common sense or reality to any Padres fan who has drunk the Preller Kool-Aid. It’s laughably, regretably, true.
@OldSalt … What results? Farm system rankings are meaningless, so it hardly qualifies as a result. The only thing that counts is winning, and there is nothing to indicate Preller knows anything about that.
Chalk Mat Latos up as another victory for Balsley.
“Draft”, smaft—who cares. He picked/drafted them (think like the Army). He paid them. They were acquired by him. Saavy, Quickdraw? They’re his until he decides they’re not. He even paid penalties, just like your big house stint.
In your “I was in love with all the loser prospects shipped out by Preller when he got here!” mind—get over it. Don’t be jealous of the man’s #1 rated farm.
Your old prospects gone–get over it.
Only drafted one star in 45 years? Dave Winfield, Ozzie Smith and Roberto Alomar are in the Hall of fame. Sandy (Roberto’s brother) is in the Cleveland Indians Hall of fame and was a World Series catcher. Randy Jones, Cy Young award winner and Benito Santiago to name a few. I could go on, but won’t. C’mon man, learn your history!
Padre fans love that badge of honor great farm system
Benito was juicer
Add Gary Sheffield to that list too!
Benito was 6′ 1″ 180 lbs. Don’t think so. If he was on roids he should have taken tips from Barry!
I thought about Sheffield, but Padres got him from the Brewers upon arrival to the majors. He came up in their farm system.
Ill believe it when i see it. They have a great system and can afford to dump some players for a solid return.
Maybe they should work out a trade with the cubs for Bryant.
They have a 3rd baseman
Yes but it seems like Bryant plays just as much left field bc he isn’t a great defender at third
Just my thoughts
Good point.
Yea Bryant can play RF or LF just fine. He moves around because he can. It has nothing to do with his third base defense which is fine. Not great but not a problem.
Bryant actually is a decent defensive 3B.
Not really
He plays OF too.
Where would he play? Tatis and Machado on the left side. I dont see Bryant roaming the huge outfield in Petco either.
I guess 1B(?), but then they’d have to do something with Hosmer. It would seem like a waste to just leave that money on the bench.
They would play him in the outfield or first base while filling in 3rd when needed. Never know when an injury happens
Cubs should ship Bryant to SD for Wil Myers and some prospects (can Myers play 3rd in any fashion still?). Not sure what SD would be willing to toss in prospect-wise but feel like Myers has worn his welcome there and could use a change in scenery. Plus it helps move some money. Haven’t looked into it at all so feel free to poke holes or say why that’s such a bad idea.
Padres will have to eat a significant amount of that contract to move Myers, and i dont think the Cubs would even be interested in a swap like that.
i think it’s Myers or no deal. (and im presuming the Cubs dont want to move him anyway, so id trend well that way regardless) Myers already has no fit on that team, and adding another OF/3B only makes him more of a liability.
Myers is NOT a third baseman.
The would probably have to throw in Mackenzie Gore, Xavier Edwards, and Ryan Weathers as prospects for Bryant
Ryan weathers? Ok
Done
Gore is untouchable
Xavier? Hmm idk
You all look at them at be like ooo top 10. Padres have prospects so deep that they’d be in teams top 30 or lower
Uhhh, that sentence doesn’t say what you think it says.
Ooooo someone is disgruntled
Im also confused.
Weathers is traceable I agree Xavier might be better than the current iteration of Urias, so Urias is probably the guy preller offers Gore, Patino untouchables unless you’re talking Lindor
Our farm isn’t as good as some people think it is. Two prospects who dominated their respective league (especially at lower levels) doesn’t really mean much. Not yet.
Gore is a 2020, TOR rookie stud, who is not going anywhere. 29 other teams wouldn’t trade Gore, why would fans of those teams expect the Padres to do that? Gore is MORE “ready” than Paddack was at this time last year. Gore will be Kershaw-like great. Ya can’t find these guys, and when you do, you don’t trade them, not even for a “guaranteed” 2020 W.S. win.
(The juxtaposition, of course, is that the Padres have so much pitching coming up the pipeline that they could sacrifice Gore to bring a pivotal piece to the 2020 team, and still remain competitive throughout the rest of the decade. That argument is sound, which is why Preller trades Weathers, Patino, or any of the other arms, BEFORE he gives up Gore.)
Fans (and their teams) that demand Gore as part of any trade, much as they demanded Tatis, Jr. when he was ready for the big league roster, are simply saying “don’t trade with the Padres”. That’s OK, but the Padres have prospects below the top 4-5 who can improve other teams; it just won’t be yours. 😉
Gore is a prospect. A prospect that hasn’t pitched that much in AA. He will not be a “2020 TOR stud.” 2021 is much more likely. Being a stud as a rookie SP is even less likely.
$300 million for Xavier Edwards.
Great post. I say Gore will be better than Kershaw. Will be a stud in regular and post-season, especially WS. Three WS Champ rings in his Padres future.
Your name and your words don’t match—RuskieDodgerDawg more accurate.
“Gore …will not be a “2020 TOR stud.” – SDHotDawg
What did Paddack do in 2018, that Gore did not do better, in 2019? And Gore will be better than Paddack. So, why do you doubt Gore?
The competition for a starting rotation slot in 2020 is higher than 2019, but barring injury, Gore starts on the MLB roster in March, 2020, guaranteed. Patino is going to take a bit longer, as he’s younger and still has some development work to continue, but he could be up before the all star break.
Do you have any idea what an outlier Paddack was? How rare that was for a rookie? And he still had to make some adjustments.
Go back and look at the rookie and second year stats of most pitchers who became dominant, Cy Young pitchers, and you’ll see how foolish it is to make such a prediction.
I’m sure you also know how meaningless minor league stats are as a predictor of ML success?
Please stop with the Mac Gore talk. He is like Tatis…untouchable. And at this point, likely the same for Patino and Abrams. Everyone else is probably available.
@dvming8
Abrams may be the most “tradeable” of those names, simply because the Padres are fairly well covered postitionally, up the middle, and Abrams is at least two years away from being MLB ready. That doesn’t mean he would come cheap, but AJ Preller would move him, I believe, for the right return.
Now, the fans on the team that picked up Abrams would be screaming for the head of their GM, due to Abrams’ price. Their GM is supposed to fleece a team like the Padres, not trade equal value. I’m pretty sure the cost for Abrams in terms of prospects and MLB players, would be steep, but not impossibly steep. Value for value, he could be had. The problem with trading a talent like a Tatis, or a Gore, is who represents a better return? Five “A” level prospects are all suspects until they’ve done it, and Tatis, Jr., has “done it”. Gore has checked every Kershaw&Paddack type box on his way up, from the day he was drafted, representing a TOR pitcher. Another team cannot trade for Gore, because they don’t have the inventory to make that trade. No one does, or at least, only a couple of teams do.
LOL. The cuba dont have 1 player Preller would do strait up for gore.
Baez
Then he is an idiot.
I would trade a pitching prospect for Javy Baez any day of the week. Even Gore.
That’s because you’re stupid.
LOL! Let me know when he wins the Cy Young.
Weathers alone is an overpay. Offer my Padres $1.5 Billion for MacKenzie Gore, plus Baez and I’ll think about it.
Cubs would have no interest in taking on Myers or his salary. The Cubs would want young arms along with a LH hitting leadoff type centerfielder.
Bryant is an above avg OFer.
And my Padres have NO interest in Kris Bryant or what the Cubs need.
1-The Cubs wouldn’t want Myers. They have corner outfielders and a 1B.
2-The Padres wouldn’t want Bryant since they have a 3B and corner outfielders.
3-And the trade wouldn’t work be SD has to throw in enough prospects to cover Myers negative value of ~ $50M, plus two pretty good prospects to cover Bryant. That’s most of their farm system.
Fair points, but Cubs could move Heyward to CF. And Bryant would be an upgrade at a corner OF spot over who SD currently has.
And couldn’t that be worth it to shed salary, sign Stras, get Bryant and still have some pretty good farm pieces. Cubs get a serviceable, albeit expensive, major leaguer who could improve with a change of scenery, plus prospects of which they have none of currently.
Improve with a change of scenery? Lol guy strikes out way to much
I’m trying to figure out what salary they are shedding in order to get Straus. You cancel out salary and add salary come next year in acquiring Bryant. Add on the fact that the padres would have to eat significant money throughout the contract especially in year 3 plus prospects just to move Myers. They can definitely acquire Bryant, but you have to look at both as completely different acquisition costs. The only way said idea comes to light in the way envisioned is if Myers is swapped in a bad contract for bad contract.
The Padres definitely have corner OFs. They’re not good. But I suppose you never qualified them as such when informing us that the Padres have guys currently playing corner OF spots.
But I suppose you never qualified them as such when informing us that the Padres have guys currently playing corner OF spots.
———————————————————–
1-I didn’t say they were good. But when trading for someone, you have to weigh the difference between playing Naylor in LF and playing Bryant in LF, before deciding how much to pay for Bryant.
2-And if you don’t think Renfroe is a good player, then we are just on an entirely different page. I’d love to see him traded to the RS in a package for Betts. Even with the injuries, he still managed a 1.9 WAR.
We San Diegans don’t want Bryant so you ain’t getting nothing. Comprende?
Not going to happen they want guys who get on base and want to cut payroll not take it on
Myers was the worst third baseman I’ve ever seen in the big leagues.
@SDHotDawg
Maybe. Then again, Myers might have been the best 1b/LF/RF/CF playing third baseman in the big leagues, particularly since he hadn’t had a rep at 3rd in at least four years since he played two games there in the minors, and was tossed there in the middle of a big league, MLB season.
He could have played a competent 3B, if the Padres had given him enough time to adapt. He’s a tremendous athlete. In the end, however, I think both sides decided that it was a bit late for a career change, that Myers was a plus defender in LF/RF, and a competent backup at CF. It’s not exactly an insult to be replaced at 3B by Manny Machado.
I guarantee you that if Myers hit up to his .300/30HR/30SB/.350ish OBP expectations, you’d have forgotten all about his dribbled balls at third base. Myers career has gone sideways. It’s in his head, as much as it’s due to the way the Padres have managed him.
I think Myers is the textbook case of a team mismanaging a good player. I don’t know if Myers will ever be the ballplayer he was projected to be. Remember, he isn’t some kid who came in as a walk on from the sand lots. Myers has always had a whole lot of talent. I think he needs a change of scenery, and the club that picks him up, will probably benefit.
Ridiculous. Myers had zero aptitude at third base. He embarrassed himself and the team. Giving him “enough time to adapt” is a lame argument. They might as well have put Bryan Mitchell at third bsse with that logic. Some guys are just not capable of playing certain positions. Especially at the highest level. THINK!
” THINK!” – SDHotDawg
Oh, if only you could take your own advice. Nuff said.
Your choker Dodgers are the worst I’ve ever seen in the WS. We’ve got Myers, you’ve got the chokers—you win.
They’re gonna have to take back Jason Heyward or Yu Darvish to be able to unload Myers in a Bryant trade.
We ain’t taking on any Chicago trash. Myers is our trash, at least until we ship him to Chavez Latrine.
Why in the world would the Cubs want Wil Meyers? In these scenarios I am reading here, people are acting like the Padres are doing a favor taking Bryant off the Cubs hands. The guy is a star, MVP and very young. It’s who you hope your prospect could turn into. Every prospect you all list are still only prospects, they haven’t proven anything at the MLB level and people are acting like they are untouchable. That is a laugh. All of these prospects are tradable and to get guys like Bryant and Contreras, they will need to be.
“Why in the world would the Cubs want Wil Meyers” – shocktop
Because the Cubs would presumably want, some of the Padres better prospects for rebuilding purposes. Myers would come in a trade to a team as part of a potential “win-win” deal of Myers+prospects+maybe cash.
Myers has a ton of upside, for any team willing to take a chance on him. That team is no longer the Padres, who are now in “win mode” for 2020. For other teams, Myers could represent a pretty good “rehab” potential. They happen every year in the MLB.
If the Padres no longer want Myers because they are in “win mode” for 2020, why would the Cubs want him?
You may be able to make that argument for a legitimate rebuilding team that’s trying to “buy prospects” by taking on Myers’ salary, but not a team like the Cubs.
The problem appears to be that your assumption is that Myers value is zero. If the Cubs regard him as such, then of course, they would steer clear of Myers like the plague.
You also seem to value Padres prospects at zero, too, even for a “win now always” club like the Cubs. So, you’re right, the Cubs should avoid Padres prospects not named “Gore”.
The problem is with your base assumptions about the Padres system in general, or perhaps, with my assumptions about the Cubs’ goals. The Cubs would never deal with a MLB system that they undervalue, it goes without saying. No biggie; 28 other teams to trade with.
So Hunter Renfroe “is who he is at this point” because he’ll be 28 for all of next season but Wil Myers, a full year older, has “upside?”
Myers has no upside. He is who he is, and who he’s always been. Remind me again how many years he has in MLB to back that up?
@SDHotDawg- too many
It’s kind of funny how your responses rotate, changing the subject slightly, as you lose each argument, while refusing to respond to the substance of the arguments of others.
Kind of trollish, docha think?
The problem appears to be that you think Myers’ value is greater than zero. It’s not.
Don’t worry about him. Be clearly isn’t too smart.
Bryant and all other players from Chicago are not needed in Petco. In other words—beat it, Cubbies.
I’m sorry but that’s plain idiotic do your homework
A Bryant-for-Myers trade would have to include Jason Heyward coming back to SD and then someone like Taylor Trammell and maybe Reggie Lawson going back to Chicago.
“would have to include Jason Heyward coming back to SD and then someone like Taylor Trammell and maybe Reggie Lawson going back to Chicago” – Show Me Your Tatis
That proposal ignores the Padres priorities. It’s got to be a good matchup for both sides Lawson, sure, he’s put himself high on the prospect map again after getting healthy (probably top 100 next year). Trammell, not unless a MLB ready CF is coming to the Padres. If someone like Franchy Cordero steps up, then yeah, Trammell might become available.
If the Cubs are looking for a 3b, I’d think that they’d be interested in Ty France.
Those were just names I plugged into that baseball trade simulator website. Isn’t Jason Heyward a CF?
No Bryant and no other leftovers from Chicago wanted here. Taylor Trammell is the 2020 Padres CF.
A guy who struggled in AA is our starting CF in 2020?
Get real. He’s got a lot to prove and a lot more development to go. It doesn’t matter how highly “ranked” he is as a “prospect.”
Until Bryant and MLB clear up the case for service time manipulation no team is going to trade for Bryant. Its a moot point.
That is happening this week.
The hearing is starting this week.
If the Cubs want a third baseman, the “buy low/high potential reward” guy they should be looking at is Ty France. Won’t cost a bundle, he was hitting .400 with 30+ dingers in AAA last year, and had a decent introduction in the few games he played for the Padres near the end of the year.
Ty could be a monster for the Cubs at 3rd.
I agree. Ty France will be a stud. Somewhere.
Should make sense to trade for Corey Seager.
I thought SD had a SS that they like?
They could trade Tatis for him.
They could trade Tatis for Seager, but they’d be getting robbed.
Why would they trade Tatis?
smdh x 1000
I doubt the Dodgers are willing to sell on Seager. Even with Lux coming up, either Seager or Lux will become their starting 2B.
Seager would make no sense. They have their infield set for the next 5-10 years with machado, tatis and urias.
Don’t need Humpty Dumpty in our infield. We could use him on the Pad Squad.
SD should trade a bunch of prospects to Detroit for Cabrera. NL could have the DH in 2022. Always wise to plan ahead.
Come-On-Man you can’t really believe any of that.
No kidding… he/she was obviously joking…
Let’s certainly hope so. Anymore on this site you just never know, like trading for Kris Bryant to use as a full time corner outfielder.
Trading for Bryant to be a full time corner outfielder isn’t a bad idea in the right ball park. Petco just isn’t that park. Left field at Fenway he could get by playing every day with not mucb ground to cover
As a RS fan, that’s what I was thinking. The issue becomes that Bryant gets downgraded as a LF. 3B is just a more important position defensively. I was also thinking RF, if it becomes Bryant for Betts.
I think you’re pretty significantly underrating Bryant’s athleticism. He’s not an elite athlete by any means, but I’m fairly certain he could handle a corner outfield spot in any ballpark without concerns. Assuming he’s talented enough to get a good jump (something I believe to be true – especially with more reps), he has more than enough athleticism to cover his position. And no, I’m not a Cubs fan.
Leyland’s Lung is an “it”, not a he or she.
The only plausible trade scenario involving Miguel Cabrera is his agreeing to trade the balance of his Detroit contract for a lifetime supply of arepas. Economists are split roughly 55-45% in favor of the arepas being the higher-cost side of the deal.
A spokesman for arepas indicated his clients have grave market concerns about the swap. “We don’t foresee the world’s supply of arepas ingredients being sufficient to satisfy the daily needs of Mr. Cabrera past 2024.”.
You need to spread your legs apart a little and pull your head out of what your momma gave you.
Myers has to go to AL….DH is best for him. Get him outta here! Meanwhile…boycott Petco and avoid those brown jerseys!!! They look like a bunch of UPS drivers.
UPS drivers look like a bunch of Padres.
Those jerseys are better than what they have had since 1991. The only negative thing is Nike. Mlb is taking a stance by allowing Nike on their product.
Nike. The company that leads the manufacturing circuit in fines from child labor viloations? The one Kaep represents? That Nike?
That was many years ago, and it was their Chinese management. Operating under Chinese laws.
No, the violations are going on now. Operating as Ruskie puppets.
Myers can’t hit…why would he be a good DH?
Its gonna be another last minute (C Kimbrel) like trade when the Pads shock the baseball world again and send their “package” to Boston for M Betts.
Just depends how big the “package” is… they say size doesn’t matter but I’ve heard otherwise… :-p
Red Sox also have such good trade history with Padres
Has Mookie and Price packaged together all over it. Price in a pitcher friendly park, could do him some good. Less of a return for Mookie with Prices salary dump but, meh.
May make sense to try to send Hosmer to Boston in that scenario as an additional bad contract to Price’s. Not sure how the money, prospects, etc would work out, but the Red Sox have a very clear opening for Hosmer and I do agree that Proce could be pretty good at Petco
IMO, Hosmer is untradeable due to the length of his contract. But another under water contract, like Myers, is something that the RS could hold their nose on, at three years.
One of the issues is that their two best prospects are headed towards 1B, and Chavis is still less than a lock at 2B.
But the question is, what do the sox get for taking on myers?
There really isn’t a good opening for him in fenway – RF requires a good CF ability… and CF he is not.
You could say move benny out of LF, but, id think the heir apparent there if mookie is traded is testing JD out. JD has a better bat than myers, and bad as his defense is, JD grades better there too.
I think dalbec gets a look at 1b and would be better there than myers – young, cheap, league minimum contract with lots of power on the bat.
So, what are you left with? Trade price you need another SP to fill the 2/3 role in the rotation. Price minus myers saves about 10-12m, less than a mid level arm costs.
Price/mookie is interesting, but I think the return starts around a mid level mlb ready arm, maybe one or two more near ready prospect arms that show reliever potential in the short term, and back of rotation upside. Beyond that, then you can look at working a myers in with some extra prospects.
Might be a better fit to have the red sox include some cash in 2021/2022 of price’s deal without taking a myers back, focus more on the SP arm and prospects going back.
Good stuff here
“May make sense to try to send Hosmer to Boston in that scenario as an additional bad contract to Price’s.”
That completely defeats the purpose of taking on Price’s contract… Boston would be making that trade to save money (and get a couple prospects). Padres would be making that trade to save prospects (and get Mookie). Adding Myers or Hosmer is a non-starter for Boston.
I like it.
Contreras?
Contreras for Mackenzie Gore / Xavier Edwards might make sense.
Makes no sense. Padres can roll with mejia and keep gore at that cost. They need
Just tossing somethings out here. After all it is the “Hot Stove” time of year. If the Cub’s front office is serious about shaking up the roster and lowering payroll, The Padres are a likely trade partner. The Padres appear to be in a start to win now mode. I agree that Bryant and Contreras may not be the perfect match. But there’s a chance with both. Additionally, a starter like Quintana would help the Padres. With only one year left of control, the Cubs will not get an overwhelming return. Maybe a package deal? Again, there are some possibilities with the Padres.
I don’t see either Contreras or Quintana being good fits. In addition to Mejia, they also have Hedges, who I think is an ideal gamble for a team like the RS. And the Padres have 5-6 Quintana equivalents.
The RS have Vasquez locked up cheaply for the next three years. Both seem superfluous especially since he’s probably a good mixture of both names. C is not an area of need as much as their arms and certain positional aspects.
Gore isn’t going anywhere
Stop with the Gore talk…not getting moved unless its for Trout
While clear hyperbole, the sentiment isn’t crazy. Prospects and cost control are both being highly valued in a stronger analytic league (v. signing older expensive FAs), so Gore is nearly a lock to stay. While he still has a lot to prove at the MLB level, the kid has everything you want in a TOR guy. The only way you move a guy like that is for a cost-controlled position player with a pretty solid upside. SD would move him for G. Torres every day of the week, though obviously the Yankees wouldn’t do that.
As for these Myers to RS offers….the money just doesn’t make sense. The RS are already right up against the lux cap tax and they need to shed money to have ANY flexibility to sign anyone more than a role player. I think the RS will get creative and package Price with a middling prospect to a team who will take on MAYBE $20m of the remaining 3/$96m.
Nope. Gore is not going anywhere.
Contreras for Mike Trout didn’t get accepted, huh?
Would have been interesting to see what San Diego would have offered for one year of Stroman.
This has got Theo wrtitten all over it. It just does.
Theo and Chaim all over it.
Preller isn’t necessary loaded up with great ideas all the time but you gotta admit he’s got some brass balls
And apparently a good sized “package” to go along with them
How many of these jokes are you going to make
He’s desperate and allowed by dumb owners to make moves
Yup, I thought the owner’s outburst was counterproductive. A prospect trade certainly makes sense But when you all but threaten to fire your GM, it makes him more likely to go all-in for 2020, and gives notice to the oppostion that Preller is desperate.
The owners outburst was CHALLENGING, not counterproductive.
MLB, like all professional sports, is intense competition. Not just on the field of play, but from the manager and coaches in the dugout and those in the front office. As Harry said, “If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen”.
Like the Phillies, Preller’s “rebuild” has been sub-standard. Sure, there are a few guys. But does a tear-down for 3-4 years justify that?
The current issue is that unfortunately for Preller, he can’t trade with fans and media people. He has to trade with sharp, cutthroat front offices that all have experienced can’t miss prospects that did. They have accountability to their owners for the results of their actions (which you think is being “counterproductive”).
The bottom line – the Padres well-publicized prospects are not all that good. Most teams have plenty like them. Getting a grab bag of players in trade, knowing that at best one might be an average major league player, is not terribly enticing.
Like the Phillies, Preller’s “rebuild” has been sub-standard.
————————————————————–
IMO, except for payroll capacity, Preller’s rebuild is much better than the Phillies. The Phillies farm has only produced/acquired Hoskins, Segura, Kingery, Realmuto, and Nola. With Heasley and a couple of decent, but not great, prospects.
Admittedly, a couple of the Padres prospects are a work in process, but Tatis, Renfroe, and 5 of their SPs are already better than what Phillies have produced, and the farm is still absolutely loaded.
If SD had Phillies payroll, they’d be way ahead of the Phillies.
JoeBrady;
Neither one has been very good.
The record shows that most rebuilds fail – and even the ones that succeed for a bit aren’t sustainable. Look at the Astros compared to the Cubs.
Preller can’t make moves to help the major league team if his life depended on it. His 2014 offseason and Hosmer is evidence enough to scare Padres fans for the next step of the rebuild
Yes, that’s the scary part. Preller has shown zero aptitude at identifying and acquiring Major League players.
Mookie Betts!? I realize he’s technically a “one-year rental” but can’t make a much bigger splash than that via trade this off-season. And if they are legitimately trying to “win-now” he could be a solid fit. Additionally he’ll require less prospects than trading for someone with several years of control AND if they really will be upping their payroll going forward – who’s to say they can’t resign him?
Lindor would be a bigger splash via trade. Bryant over two years would have considerably more impact than Betts over one year.
Again, except for the fact that SD already has a SS & 3B.
Move Tatis to second, seems to have issues with throwing accuracy anyways
2B = Urias
Bryant is overrated.
Yeah, I think you meant underrated.
I doubt whether Preller is interested in trading with Boston after the Anderson Espinoza fiasco.
I also doubt whether trading for a one-year rental at this point is smart. Betts is probably just going to go back to Boston after one year so SD would basically have to win a championship in 2020 to make trading for Betts worth it.
Kind of a whole new regime there in Boston, no?
I’ve been saying the same thing for a month now. The Padres have two types of prospects and/or young graduates. You have a Gore, Urias and maybe a Patino. Those are your keepers. Everyone other prospect is a trade chip. And once they decide on their rotation, anyone outside of the top 6 SPs, is also trade fodder.
And the #1 short term target is Betts. And, while it is possible to disagree on an appropriate package, the matchup & fit is almost perfect.
So one Betts is going to put them over the Dodgers?
Taking a big Betts there sir.
I think it is time to acknowledge that SD is not beating out the Dodgers next year. They could buy every FA out there, and still not beat them. If you are not going to make any moves unless it puts them over the Dodgers, then you are not making any moves, for a long time.
Correct. I think it’s also time to acknowledge that the LAD are not gonna win a WS for at least 52 years.
Why would team with 1/2 a brain trade prospects for 1year of Betts
Because they want to win this year? It’s the whole basis of the article. In fact, it is almost exactly what Fowler said-“is ready to view its prospects as “currency.”.
Of course, it will be cheaper to trade for Marte, for example, and he will give you two years. But that’s just a matter of taste. Two yeas of a solid upgrade, or one year of a monster upgrade.
But if I am reading Fowler right, he wants to compete for the playoffs in 2020.
I think the Pirates would be an ideal fit for a Marte/Myers contract swap, Marte is under control for 2 seasons at 24 million while Myers for 3 years at 68.5 million. The Padres have a full 40 man roster w/ plenty of young talent as well as a top 30 full of talent. For a Marte/Myers swap + a BP piece should net the Pirates several pieces. The Padres can trade France, Olivares off the 40 man & include Campusano Arias and Cantillo from the farm and get a CFer, a BP piece and free up 10 million in payroll and a 40 man spot. The Pirates would get a 3B to platoon w/ Moran an outfielder in Myers and a 4th OFer w/ Olivares + a young catcher, SS and LHP for the farm.
To win now. You give up the appropriate number and quality that fits a one-year player. You wouldn’t do it?
Exactly. The idea that you can’t trade ANY prospects because Betts is only one year, is kind of far afield. Nobody appreciates a good farm more than me, and is the reason I’d like us to trade Betts, but:
1-Naylor is almost completely expendable since he has no position to play. And if Hedges is going to be a backup, he might also be expendable.
2-They have, imho, they 8 guys on their roster that could be in someone’s rotation. In addition, they also have Gore, Patino, and Morejon that should also get a shot. It would be foolish, imo, to hold onto all 11 SPs.
Padres need to clear 40 man spots. Trading two or three players for Betts is one way to do that. Naylor, Lauer, Quantrill, and Garcia for Betts. Red Sox get a first baseman, two starting pitchers that they need.and a utility guy to replace Brock Holt. Padres get Betts and clear 40 man spots with players that are not their core players and that can be replaced in house.
That trade benefits SD much more than Boston. The Red Sox give up a top 5 MLB player and get nothing elite in return. They’d much rather take a shot at one top young prospect than spare parts.
An offseason trade for Betts will hurt or it won’t happen. Even though it’s only for one year, it will hurt. Names like Patino, Edwards.
For the Padres, that price is too high. We need a 20+ game swing to make the Wild Card next year. That’s Betts + two SP + improvements in the pen + better production from untradeable Hosmer.
They can keep Betts then. It’s not that he isn’t worth the money (if he wasn’t they would just non-tender him) but him being a one-year rental and being projected to get $30m in arbitration really hurts his trade value. Plus the Sox don’t have any leverage there because everyone knows they have been mandated to duck under the luxury tax threshold.
Okay then forget about Betts. We’ll trade him elsewhere.
Go ahead.
Completely agree with you. That’s how preller has to approach offseason
Adam Frazier for Michael Baez.
Where would Frazier play?
@JoeBrady literally any position that isn’t catcher or pitcher. He’s the definition of super-utility guy
2B if they trade Urias, outfield if they want to use him over Wil Myers.
For you and Chungus, Frazier only works if they trade Urias, which, imo, would be short-sighted. Would he be enough of an improvement over Myers that you’d want to trade Baez? I just don’t see a fit.
Ready for hipster to make more horrendous moves
I realize the Padres have to add a free agent or two to make at a one game wild card run, but they are foolish to trade much of the future in hopes they catch the Dodgers. They are too far away to compete for a division title.
Let the youth grow and wait,
That would take too long and goes totally against what they’ve been trying to do with these huge money deals.
You’re either the Rays or you’re the Yankees and the Padres are trying to be the Yankees with the big stars and their contracts. Or should I say, who they thought would be big stars.
Team like the Rays is totally committed to go with their youth and they sign a couple of guys for decent deals on the free-agent Market.
Team like the Yankees plugs in a few young guys and signs a lot of free agents. (I say both of these descriptions with respect and affection of course. Just my examples.)
This is Preller’s SIXTH full year. He has shown no signs of winning at the big league level, and he’s finally been put on notice.
Which actually hurts team since he’s desperate now here’s a guy who traded Turner and Fried sane now what
well 5th full year but yr 1 I blame ownership for directing him to go all in and trading away Turner AA and Ross AA and Fried A+ and Malleck Smith AA.. as well as Grandal and Alonzo from the MLB roster.. But to his defense he did land Tatis Jr + Paddack and Luis Castillo (the BP one) and Naylor as part of selling off some of those acquisitions (Kimbrel + Shields + Rodney)
Either stop with the “ownership made him do it in 2015” or present your proof. Even if ownership said “be bold,” they did NOT say “trade a great catcher for Matt Kemp” or “trade Trea Turner.” He had lots of choices and he made bad ones.
Which Preller will be making these trades? The one who radically overvalued Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers, and James Shields, or the one who correctly identified Manny Machado as a need and saw the potential in Brad Hand and Kirby Yates?
Check your calendar: this is Preller’s SIXTH full year.
As for the “all-in” in 2015, gathering those contracts at the expense of an already good minor league system may well have been part of his plan. It’s not so far-fetched if you read an article on Fangraphs titled “Is Rebuilding Worth It,” look at what he said about acquiring players “who would have value to other teams,” and firing his manager 60-ish games into the season. Yes, it requires some deductive reasoning, but it’s the only reason that makes any sense for what he did.
Winning in 2015 would have been a happy surprise – especially for Preller. THAT would have made him a “rock star.”
He did not and was never going to get back better prospects for the players acquired during Prellerpalooza than he gave up to get them. 2015 was an attempt to “win now.” A misguided one? Sure. But that was their intention.
He got plenty by eating those contracts.
Read the piece on Fangraphs. He followed it to a tee, first by increasing payroll, then using those contracts as baseball capital.
So then what did he supposedly get by eating them?
Smart. Agree.
I think that they will sign Strasburg.
So do I and then follow that by trading for a #2 SP like Syndergaard.
And then follow that with a little trade for Mookie Betts and the Padres are set.
Paddack is a better #2 than Syndergaard in my mind. If they were to sign Strasburg, that rotation would look pretty solid with Paddack, Lucchesi, Lamet, and Lauer behind him. They could use some prospect pieces to beef up the bullpen or go after a better OF bat; probably a CF.
Pirates could match up. If only we had a GM!
Pirates need catching—will send C Hedges, #6 prospect C Luis Campusano and OF Franchy Cordero for Josh Bell.
Syndergaard and Conforto for
Luchessi, Cordero, Quantrill and Urias
Uh no. Luchessi is a back end rotation guy. Urias is of no interest as the Mets have a glut of a glut of middle infielders. Why bother continuing. This trade is as bad as what the Padres were offering in July.
You got to be realistic when it comes to money and control. The Mets would be lucky to get players that could fill roster spots at a cheap price since they’re spending over their heads and getting negative results.
If the Mets want to trade a starter, Marcus Stroman is the one they should trade.
I still think we should go after Zach Wheeler AND Matz. First proposed this before the 2018 deadline. I think both of these guys have yet to reach their potential, and they would be relatively inexpensive.
LOL, knowing Preller as Padres fans have come to know him, he’s “in” on every starter who can get a ball past home plate.
After all, he took a flyer on Mitchell. (Oopps, poor example. Mitchell couldn’t even hit the proverbial bull behind the plate. 😉 )
Ugh. So true about Mitchell. Then, he ignored the coaches and manager and put him in the starting rotation without earning it! In the post-game pressers, you could sense Green’s frustration growing after every Mitchell start.
Wheeler is someone I’d like to see them target this offseason if they can fit him in the budget. Don’t know too much about Matz.
Padres brass should watch Godfather never let anyone outside family know what you’re thinking this has makings of desperate GM getting schooled again in trades so he can build on his 112 games under .500 GM record
Renfore, Quantrill, Urias, and Trammell for Mookie Betts
I think the RS/Padres match up well, but I would drive Betts out to SD myself for that package. I love Renfroe, I think Quantrill is a mistake waiting to happen, but I also wanted the RS to draft him, but I am assuming that Urias and Trammell are off limits.
Renfroe isn’t worth anything for the red sox.
He strikes out 1/3 of the time, and hit .216 last season. His slash line is .216/.289/.489 meaning he doesn’t hit for average, doesn’t walk much, doesn’t get on base well. Ops of .778
Thats Dan Uggla territory. The guy hits a few hrs in a time when they are cheap and easy to come by due to whatever is going on with those baseballs these days.
SD would be trying to sell extremely high on him, but, there’s no room on a championship caliber team for a slash line like that unless he had exceptional best-at-his position type defense, and even then there would be clamoring to replace his bat.
Nope. RF Renfroe, CF Margot and SP Lamet for RF Betts but ONLY if we reach an agreement on an extension.
Betts has said on MULTIPLE occasions that he isn’t signing an extension.
And even then, if getting him signed long-term is the key to the deal for you, wouldn’t it make more sense to wait a year and sign him as a FA? He’s not going to give them any kind of discount.
Not asking for a discount. But yeah, you’re right, waiting a year is probably smarter.
If Mookie was willing to sign an extension before a trade was completed, just about every team in baseball would be interested, and it’d take significantly more than that package to get him.
Whit merrifield would be my choice. And move urias for pitching.
Move abrams or edwaeds in a deal to unload myers contract. Sign Strasburg and roark
Im in on a portion of this. Reduce the Merrifield prospect price by taking Ian Kennedy back. It also allows for a Yates move and still have a veteran presence to anchor the pen. Something like Lauer, Bolanos, Oliveres and Naylor could all be beneficial pieces to the ML roster immediately or within 6 to 12 month. Probably could even get a rule 5 exposed bullpen arm in there. A quality for quantity deal that would help the 40 man roster crunch. Kennedy would bridge to bullpen of Munoz, Castillo, Strahm, and Baez.
Send Wil and 24M to Toronto along with Cal Quantrill, Reggie Lawson and Jean Cosme
If the Padres trade Yates they have no chance of contending for a playoff spot. They are no longer in rebuild mode. They don’t need to prospects they would get for him.
So trading Lindor doesn’t mean the Indians have no chance of contending, but trading Yates means the Padres have no chance of contending?
I love the idea of Whit Merrifield for the Padres. He is exactly the kind of player they need to be adding. Move on from the “headliner” and “rockstar” types. No single big $$$ player is going to fix this team. They need a series of moves for guys like Merrifield.
Urias will be better than Merrifield soon anyway. Plus then the Padres wouldn’t have to pay a premium in prospects for how warm and fuzzy he makes Royals fans feel.
Urias is never going to hit .304 and .302 in consecutive seasons. NEVER.
If the Padres trade for Merrifield they are getting what he will do. Not what he has done. He’ll be 31 in January which means his best years are behind him.
LOL The Padres have 6 more years to pay Hosmer (who is also 30)
Merrfield will make the same in the next 4 years as Hosmer makes in a single season.
But Merrifield is 30 so you better pass. BRILLIANT.
Early 30’s Merrifield > Any years of Urias
If you say so.
Merrifield is a 31 year old this coming season. He is going to regress each of the next few seasons of his contract. Since so much of his game is based on speed that regression is going to be steep. Ellsbury and Fowler are good examples recently of speed guys falling off the cliff in performance,
Unless you think Merrifield is going to suffer a bunch of injuries, Ellsbury is not a good example at all.
Could and has happened.
its the perfect example. After 30 players suffer many more injuries and most of those are leg injuries. That is why speed guys performance falls so precipitously.
You’re drunk—Merrifield is OLD. Keep your grandpa. Edwards and Abrams will be starters at 2B and LF, respectively. If Urias isn’t traded, he’ll be the back-up at 2B/SS.
Urias isn’t a backup tho
That’s up to Tingler. I like Edwards at 2B more.
.371 OBP in September (once they started using him correctly) on a team that struggled mightily with getting on base. He’s a starter.
I’m probably the high man on Edwards, but he won’t be major league ready until 2021
Edwards is like 2 years away
Padres get: Noah Syndergaard
Mets get: CJ Abrams, Adrian Morejon & Michel Baez
SD gets a solid #2 SP and the Mets get the bullpen help they need for 2020 while getting a future asset in Abrams who’s at least 2-3 seasons away from making it to the majors. Plus the Padres keep Gore, Trammell & Patino.
Pads aren’t getting Syn for those guys it would have to be more like a combo of 2 or more of Gore,Quantrill,Morejon,Mejia,Renfroe,Trammell and Patino some of them
Bro, I’m a Mets fan and I can honestly say that Syndergaard is not worth Gore. If the Mets could get Patino, then great but honestly I think my proposed scenario is more realistic for both teams. Just my opinion. I would love Gore but it’s not happening.
No way they are trading Gore. The proposed deal is pretty good, I could see the Padres trying to wiggle out of including Abrams though.
CJ is better than all except Gore.. lol
If the Mets want to trade a starter, Marcus Stroman is the one they should trade.
Keep your loser blondie. Padres start Abrams at LF, Morejon will be a spot starter and long reliever and Baez a RP (if not traded elsewhere).
It’s obvious that the Friars need rotation help. Here are my questions:
1) how much do they really believe that Urias is the answer at 2B?
2) how much of last year’s offensive struggles were due to players actually being bad and how much was just underperformance?
3) Myers and Hosmer were not much worse than league average by OPS+, is that going to be good enough? If not, is an upgrade going to be worth what they have to eat to get rid of these guys?
4) How much do they believe in Mejia both as a catcher and even as a member of the team going forward?
I dunno, I just look at that lineup and I see a lot of positive regression. Maybe an Ozuna is a good answer? 3/$45MM is the MLBTR projection, seems affordable enough. Grandal, and move Mejia to a corner outfield? Just spitballing.
There are small things that they can do to optimize their lineup that should help it perform better as currently constructed. For example play Mejia over Hedges, platoon Renfroe, fling Kinsler into the sun.
But even with that, plus if you get a full season of Tatis, and Machado performs better, I don’t think that’s enough. They still need a middle of the order OF bat and some offensive production from 2B. I think they have to play Urias though unless they trade him, otherwise they’ll never really know if he’s for real or not, which complicates adding to the infield in my mind.
Excellent post.
* I think it is too early to give up on Urias. A .665 is not the end of the world, and he had a good September. I’d like him on the RS.
* Some positive regression, imho. Renfroe was hurt for a large portion of the season, Margot only just turned 25, and the Tatis injury wiped you out.
* Hosmer is untradeable, imho, but Myers I think is more a matter of how much SD is willing to chip.
If you’re going to argue in favor of positive regression, I think you also have to be realistic and assume Tatis isn’t going to have a .410 BABIP moving forward…
That’s fair, even though his speed may allow him to have an elite BABIP, but I get that .400+ is an outlier and not likely to be repeated. That said, he was a 3.6fWAR player in like half a season, so even if his BABIP goes down, having him on the field the whole year instead of having Ty France at 3rd and Machado at SS is theoretically an improvement worth multiple wins to the team.
Keep spitting.
Mmmmookie toooo SD?????? Would be fun.
Damn it Fishy! You beat me to it! 🙂
Their best bet I think is to see if the Marlins will take on Hosmer or Myer’s contract, and attach a prospect or two, out of Baez, Ruiz, Marcano or Gabriel Arias for maybe a return of Garrett Cooper and maybe Lewis Brinson or Magneuris Sierra. Then use the money cleared off the books towards signing Zach Wheeler or Gerritt Cole.
Marlins now lol
Is there a precedent in “P”TBNL deals to judge the performance for cash? So, if Myers goes to Seattle and hits .400 that SD isn’t paying 85% of his salary while he MVPs for the Ms?
Just curious.
I think that’s why they call it player to be named later. You don’t have to give us anything now let’s see how he plays for you then we’ll talk.
There’s only upside for the team that trades the guy away cuz it probably having to convince the other team to give something up a value. Then that player does well.. okay send us a decent guy back now.
I think OP is wanting the cash considerations to be contingent.
Sort of like, “ok, we include 20m if he plays like he has. But if he improves we only give 5m salary relief”
I don’t know that I see mlb signing off on that, which, they have to do for any cash considerations deals.
Even PTBNL has a list of guys locked in at the time of the trade.
I think basing the trade on an individuals performance would be something they would reject though because it could be manipulated. There would have to be a set thing he has to do like hit for a .300 average but they could not play him in the final day or days of the season if he was at like .298 so he couldn’t make it and they get the full payment instead of the reduced one. It would have to be something like if he finished in the top 10 of MVP voting or if he qualified wins comback player of the year for MLB to approve it most likely.
My gut feeling is that, since I’ve never heard of it, but it’s probably frowned upon by the union and the league. It would be curious though.
I do recall hearing of trades where it was contingent on an extension being offered and accepted with the new team. Right?
What prospects could be thrown in for a Fowler, carlos martinez swap for myers to work?
I think Fowler has a -$10M to -$20M surplus value, and C-Mart has between $30-45M in surplus value.
I feel like that wouldn’t necessarily require Myers to come back, but could get you a prospect in the 100 range depending the range you assess those two at.
But, you could do a swap of both, and if Myers is included, then some decent prospects could come with. I have Myers at a -$30M value. If we take everyone at their low end values, that’s Myers plus two outside the top 200 prospects in baseball for Fowler and C-Mart. At their highest value, that’s two top 100 prospects.
Just depends how you’d project those guys.
As a baseline though.
That’s Cards sending +$22.5M and the Padres sending -$30M
So total value of $52.5M
Which would be something like Trammel, Patino, and Myers for Fowler and Martinez. And that says no money changes hands.
So Cards would save $7M in each 2020 and 2021, and spend an additional $22.5M in 2022.
Keep those bums in red—no brown for them.
Just make sure that the Padres give you their real sets of medical files and not their fake sets.
Girls, make sure this fool pulls those pants down and hasn’t packed a towel in there before buying in. Bunky is known for modeling a fake set.
Contreras kind of needs to be traded he’s at the peak of his young career he could be a headliner for real high end prospects and if you have to ask if they want Russell. He’s a questionable at best human being but he can play SS or 2B above average. Then trade Bryant (since he wont sign an extension even for 30 mil per year) to the mets for syndergard and other prospects that have high upside and that might make everyone happy. Oh and extend Baez for about 8 years 200ish million and Rizzo 5 years 125 mil area.
IF…if the Red Sox float Mookie Betts out there, is there. Deal to be had with the Padres? Before I get savaged here remember: Payroll, minors rebuilding, and free agency.
I think it would be tricky.
Bloom is new in town, but, recall some of that “currency” the Pads would look to unload were already deemed expendable by the red sox staff in the prior trades that sent then there.
I don’t see renfroe having value to the red sox. People complain to no end about JBJ. Renfroe in his best years and similar PAs gets maybe 10 more hr than JBJ at the expense of worse defense and lower OBP & walk rate.
Last year JBJ hit .225/.317/.422 and there’s been clamoring to get rid of him. Accounting for slightly less slugging due to those couple less HRs, they have a similar line. JBJ walks more, strikes out less, plays better D.
Not really a centerpiece for a deal, given that the idea of HRs continuing at the current ball-assisted rate is a wild card.
Maybe you bundle in an eovaldi coming from the red sox, and SD has to include one or two of those prospects fans consider “untouchable” into the mix, then there may be something. But the common pieces people carry on about, well, if they were so great SD would build around them, not cast them off. Give quality to get quality.
You wanna unload renfroe? Ok, your return is centered around JBJ.
Why would they wanted JBJ when they have his clone in Margot?
@weaselpuppy- exactly my point. SD should NOT want JBJ, which is exactly why the red sox didn’t want margot when they traded him and why they wouldnt want renfroe.
However, the 3 centerpieces usually brought up first in a boston-SD deal are myers, hosmer, and renfroe which leave someone slapping their forhead asking why?
The Red Sox have a two part agenda.. move Mookie and his projected $ 27.5 MM one year deal while improving their club’s pitching (RP) and filling the huge hole left behind by Dustin Pedroia. The Padres have what the Red Sox need (2B in the form of Edwards or Abrams for the future) but not an immediate fill. With only one year remaining on the Betts contract.. at that high of an AAV, the return would from the Padres would have to be remedied financially, either in the form of cash or in the form of taking back a bad contract from the Padres..
Thoughts?..
Sign Strasburg and Wheeler. Move Myers. Find a LF who can hit and get on base on a consistent basis if Bryant would be made available would line up well.
We get that calling them the “Friars” is the too-cool-for-school, ultra-hipster, new generation going old school thing to say but let’s give it a rest lol
Hosmer, Myers, Ryan Weathers & CJ Abrams for David Price & Mookie Betts
Myers and Hosmer are owed too much money, for too long a time, to be worth it – especially on a team without a good spot to play them.
Myers cannot cover CF, and RF is fenway requires CF range and defense. You’d be better putting JDM in LF than Myers if you wanted to shift Benny over to CF. And that’s saying something.
As far as 1b, there’s a guys named dalbec who is pounding on the door for a chance to help the mlb team. He’s probably a superior 1B candidate to Hosmer – young, cheap, more power. It’d be a waste of sorts to put dalbec’s arm at 1b, but the bat should play and the salary is right.
Abrams hasn’t shown much outside of rookie ball yet, and is far from a lock. Weathers hasn’t exactly been spectacular either, and is also a-level. I think the sox need more of a track record, more prospects, and closer to mlb ready.
The salary and lack of performance or need for either a hosmer/myers type really kind of kill that deal on arrival, but the prospects don’t exactly overwhelm either.
Boston would eat Myers alive he can’t handle San Diego
I would say that’s too much to take back salary wise for the Red Sox and not really helping them.
I would modify that trade to Price and Chavis for Myers, Kinsler, Edwards, and Espinosa.
In think this could help both teams.
If the Padres can somehow sign Strasburg. That would make a nice 1,2,3 with Strasburg, Price, Paddack. Chavis would solve the 2B issue and provide some offense for the Padres.
Sox would get salary relief with Price, get a veteran backup for Pedroia. Sox can then put Myers in lF and move Benintendi to CF. Also, the sox get some much needed depth in their minor league system.
What do you think?
I don’t think it’s far off. Edwards would be a nice get, but I’d need to know more about Espinosa’s arm. He could be finished, even though he is still young.
If the Padres can pull off what the Astros have done, acquire top level talent while still holding onto to their top prospects, then I am all for this. I would hate to see Gore, Trammell, Patino or Abrams (maybe even Edwards) dealt, but with the prospect depth the Padres have, they may be able to make something work.
And yes I am a Padre fan, but the Astros have brought in Verlander, Cole and Greinke and did not have to deal Alvarez, Whitley or Tucker, so I am just hoping the Padres can do the same thing.
I think the equivalent to verlander would be price. Highly paid, needs a little work, but the ceiling was there.
The difference with the astros is the work they’ve done/did to take a pitcher to the next level. Had another team taken cole/verlander I don’t think they would be quite as good as they are today.
Cards can send you Carlos Martinez or Kolten Wong in a prospect heavy deal
I like it – I like it a lot
I still like Cashman picking up the phone to dangle Frazier
Cardinals —- Fowler, OF’er prospect and Cmart for one of their top lefty pitching prospects and a low A guy ? We pay 80% of Fowler’s contract ??
Maybe it’s a stretch.
Paging Mr. Bloom.
Mookie to SD for Adrian Morejon, Luis Campusano, Jorge Ona, and Franchy Cordero. Red Sox get an OF, a SP, and two minor league prospects who easily crack their own top ten. San Diego gets an MVP-caliber OF and opens up some 40-man roster space. And Mookie gets to spend a year in one of the most beautiful cities in the country. Win-win-win. This trade works out on baseballtradevalues.com.
Get lost—too much for one year. If he agrees to an extension with San Diego, it’s a go.
Mookie Betts, David Price, Sam Travis, and Brian Johnson for Wil Myers, Luis Urias, Taylor Trammel, and Kirby Yates.
I’m driving Mookie to SD for that package. Mostly a robbery.
Drunken fool.
Have they learned absolutely nothing?
It’s the Padres, whose to say they ever had a plan in the first place?
They spent the least few years “rebuilding” but signing 3 huge contracts at the same time???
Then this year they used up service time on Tatis & Paddack like they wanted to win but totally passed on Kuechel and traded away a 35+ HR outfielder.
Noone knows what the Padres are doing, probably not even the Padres.
LOL
You said it all!
Yeesh. So much Urias hate on here.
How many successful rebuilding teams trade a major league ready top prospect at a position of need when they are right on the cusp of a turnaround?
Before we can answer. can the major league ready top prospect at position of need hit a MLB fastball or no?
Yes.
You see a lot of this in the RSN also. Urias wasn’t half-bad. If I were SD, he’d be one level below untouchable. My guess is that he will be above league average as soon as 2020, with another 4 years of control after that.
He would have 5 more years of control after 2020. He failed to accrue 172 days between 2018 and 2019.
Urias’ biggest (and only) problem was Andy Green. Always taking him in and out of the lineup, playing him out of position, etc.
As a RS fan, I’d be pleased to see SD sell low on him. I doubt he will. He’s made some crazy deals, but trading Urias to plug a hole, only creates another hole. As much as I’d like him, I doubt he is on the table.
i recently wrote about the Padres and Pirates working a deal for Marte. Padres are one of the few teams that could easily pull it of as their farm is pretty darn good.
Gore for marte is pretty much out of the question but. Patino, Campusano, Weathers with someone like hunt or nix for the headline… “should” get it done fairly easily from the pirates side…
from the Padres side they would probably pull one of those and go with a lower ranked prospect… which wouldn’t be the worst given the Padres good farm….
But you know.. the Pirates don’t have a GM right now and if it where up to me for the pirates i’d be a buyer for 3rd, Catcher and a pitcher to make a run and if the run fails mid season they could always trade those three + marte and likely have one of the best farms in baseball “over night”
Patino for Marte is also out of the question. I love Marte for the Padres, and think he is worth a very nice group of prospects, but his age can’t be ignored. For comparison sake consider that Syndergaard is 4 years younger, which one would you rather give up Patino for?
I can see that… but Pirates need Quality Pitching and Catching in the pipeline. Campusano is nice but not enough. Patino would pretty much take care of it from the pirates side….
like i said on the padre’s they’d probably want to pull one of the hire ranks and toss in one or two lower ones.
and Age really isn’t ‘that’ much of a factor… and to get Marte should be difficult + the lack of available center fielders… its not going to be easy… IF they really want him.. they may not….. BUT they definitely have the prospects to get it done.
edit reworded a phrase
Wilson Contreras for Mejia and a top pitching prospect?
That’s a very interesting thought considering that Campusano might be better than Mejia in a few years for the Padres anyhow.
He is better lol.
So let me get this straight. Ownership has told Preller to win in 2020 or else, but they aren’t going to raise their payroll. Why don’t they just fire him now and get it over with?
In fairness to ownership they have spent $527 million the last 3 offseasons.
Their payroll last year was a team record, and this year will surpass that.
It’s time for Preller to win with this much hyped farm.
Why are people bringing up a trade with the Red Sox? You want to trade your prospects for a one year rental? I don’t see the value in trading for Betts unless he is putting you over the top. People both under and overvalue prospects on here all the time.
Shouldn’t the idea of Betts rely on your valuation of the prospects? And if the prospects are both under- and overvalued, then it is easy to make the case for a Betts trade either way. Just figure out who is overvalued and ship them to Boston.
The question is does Preller REALLY want to deal with Boston after they traded him an injured Anderson Espinoza?
Or, more accurately, will preller need to overpay in prospects to get anyone in MLB to be willing to take the risk of dealing with him what-so-ever?
Either way, please bring all versions of the medical records, not just the cooked books.
Please, link to medical evidence of injury that existed at the time of trade? (Foil hat is also in the corner if you don’t have it)
Lmao triggerrrrrrrrrted
What risk? Preller knows that if something like that ever happens again he’ll never have a job in MLB again. Not even cleaning the toilets. If anything trading with him is more safe than anyone else.
Also, the UCL weakens over time. It doesn’t just randomly tear one day.
Pomeranz was not completely healthy either. And Espinoza was healthy enough for another 8 starts that year. My guess is that, if he was injured when the RS traded him, then SD would’ve learned a lot quicker than waiting until the end of the season.
Yes Pomeranz was completely healthy. How many starts did he miss between 2016 and 2017? Then how many did Espinoza miss?
You mean Preller traded Boston and injured Drew Pomeranz. It was not Espinoza who had the fake medical reports.
What injury did Pomeranz supposedly have?
Pomeranz missed how many starts the year he was traded to the Red Sox? Zero you say?
He missed how many starts the next season when he put up the 2nd best ERA on the Red Sox staff? Zero again?
So what is this injury you speak of? .
Pomeranz took ibuprofen for inflammation and it was not reported. That is it. There was no injury that was not disclosed.
What about Colin Rea?
What about Chris Paddack and Carter Capps?
What about them?
I’m not aware of the Padres falsifying their medical records to this point. If/when that becomes public knowledge, I’m sure Preller would get suspended again.
And, for all we know, someone in SD’s system had him change mechanics… or pitch mix… or who knows what, increasing strain on the areas, leading to the issue.
The fact a prospect has needed TJ more than once tends to point towards something more going on than an arm about to blow just before the trade, but not actually happening for months later
Preller is the most in over his head GM in the sport. I wonder sometimes just what does this guy need todo to get fired?
Blowing up a perfectly good farm system to start?
Trading guys like Turner & Grandal?
Getting suspended by MLB?
Signing Wil Myers to an extension?
Spending $100m internationally for an underwhelming class?
Inexplicable drafting Hudson Potts in the 1st round?
Taking back Chase Headley for a chance at Bryan Mitchell?
Giving Hosmer $144m?
Gifting the Twins an out on Hughes contract?
Signing Ian Kinsler for 2 years?
Trading Brad Hand & Adam Cimber for a catcher who can’t catch?
Hiring a manager solely because he is your buddy and former rule 5 pick?
Hiring an infield coach from the worst team in baseball to assist said buddy?
Seriously how is this guy Preller still employed?
For all we know, the Marlins could have had Rea alter his mechanics or pitch mix. Ditto the Red Sox and Pomeranz.
If Preller wasn’t in the wrong why did he agree to taking Rea back and returning Castillo? They kept two sets of medical records. The Red Sox and Marlins did not.
“For all we know, the Marlins could have had Rea alter his mechanics or pitch mix.”
So you think that in the 5 days it took for him to make his last start with the Padres to his first with the Marlins, he did enough damage to his perfectly healthy elbow that he needed TJS? Not even you can be delusional enough to believe that.
So you think that in the first 3 starts Paddack made in the Padres organization, he did enough damage to his perfectly healthy elbow that he needed TJS? Not even you can be delusional enough to believe that.
No… I’m also not the one saying a player got hurt within 5 days of a trade because another organization made him “alter his mechanics or pitch mix.” I’m not the one saying that because it’s absolutely ridiculous.
I’m also not saying the Marlins kept 2 sets of medical records on players to deliberately hide information from other teams. Can you say the same about the Padres?
I know that. It’s just as ridiculous to say that Paddack’s injury was because the Padres made him “alter his mechanics or pitch mix.”
Do we know that the Marlins didn’t hide information on Paddack? He needed TJS after 3 starts in the Padres org despite being “perfectly healthy” when the trade went down. Sounds fishy to me.
Nope. We don’t know that. But we do know for a fact that Preller has been suspended for withholding medical information in the past, so it’d be nothing new.
Boston is the most logical trade partner but how about Tampa? They’re not going to pay Blake Snell in a couple of years so why not throw a slew of top prospects at them for Snell and Kevin Kiermaier? Granted Tampa is in win now mode but I could see that happening. Kiermaier can cover ground in that spacious ballpark. The possibilities are endless when you have a farm system that deep
With their pitching healthy, Tampa has a chance to win the AL East. They are not trading Snell.
Snell is signed through 2023 on a bargain deal, Tampa would be crazy to part with him. Kiermaier hasn’t hit the past 2 years, so unless the Rays are dumping his salary, I don’t see why SD would give up prospects went they have Margot who basically just slightly worse for like 1/10th of the cost.
Trade you the Padres brain trust for the Rays’ staff.
“Once again…information that could’ve been brought to my attention YESTERDAY!”
well with 130-140 if they took on Bryant or Lindor or Bettts (only 1 yr not worth top 10 specs but 11-30 2 or 3 sure)..they almost have to include Myers to offset $$ .. so I can see a Will +Weathers + Morejon + Lucchesi + Ornelas and Arias type a deal for Bryant.. similar package for Lindor but with Patino instead of Morejon .. as far as Betts is concerned more like Weathers + Wil + Naylor + Lucchesi + Hedges + Morejon + Arias for Betts + Benintendi
Sox arent trading Betts AND Benintendi
Especially since they are going to trade or non-tender Jackie Bradley Jr.
What’s Boston’s or Chicago’s incentive? You’re trying to equal out money trading a good contract and adding a pretty bad contract for two teams trying to get under the threshold that would string out their payroll obligations. Both Betts and Bryant are well worth their contractual obligations and quite short term. Myers is a bad contract swap nothing more nothing less. So if you envision such a trade scenario you’re essentially adding in an Eovaldi type contract, with there being some money switching out to even out a situation, but Myers isn’t just a 3 year ~14M type deal a team over or right at the threshold takes back.
Yeah, and I’ll trade you a $1.4 million house for your $110K studio, straight-up swap.
Henry, you love to propose 6 – 8 players for one trades. Teams rarely trade for quantity, they trade for quality. I know that the Indians are looking for quality in a Lindor trade. If I read your post correctly, which is difficult since you do not use punctuation, you are offering Cleveland Patino, Myers, Weathers, Lucchesi, Ornelas, and Arias for Lindor. There is so many things to say so here goes:
1. The Indians are not taking on Wil Myers and his contract. They are a small market team and the reason for having to trade Lindor is that they will not likely be able to sign him long term to the amount of money that it would take.
2. Cleveland’s strength is starting pitching. Their weakness is hitting, which will be weaker without Lindor. So why would they want the main pieces in a Lindor trade to be more pitching? A pitcher may be part of a Lindor trade, just not the main part.
3. Chicago and Boston are both over the luxury tax limit and trying to get under the limit. Neither team is able to take on Wil Myers contract.
4. Teams trading a player like Lindor, Betts, or Bryant want quality back that fits their needs, That player or package of players will vary depending on that teams needs. Boston’s needs are different that those of the Indians.
Indians can’t afford not to keep Lindor at this point. Unless they have decided to tear down and rebuild.
They made a silly high cost move last offseason that’s gonna cost them a lot for years… who was that again? Some kid I believe…
That move is fine, it’s the Hosmer and Myers contracts that are going to hold them back
Thor is not being traded so who exactly is Preller going to target in trades? There are no other TOR starters that are on teams that not contenders. A contending team is not going to trade their Ace.
So what Acee is really saying is that the Padres are not going to bring in anyone good. That would mean the end of Preller as the GM.
Might be a blessing in disguise tbh
Preller going away? That I would agree with, but it would mean we suffered through another year of the Padres losing.
Preller knows he’s on the hot seat. He may be a little desperate. What does he do?
One scenario: He says, “You want to win? OK, here goes.” He (again) decimates the farm to make some so-so trades that don’t pan out. He walks away and we’re left with another losing team, and an even worse farm system. Back to Square One. Again.
This offseason is when we find out who Preller is and how “smart” he really is. I’m skeptical.
That’s what I’m worried about. The team will improve organically if they can be patient and stop misusing Luis Urias and Wil Myers. They are losing no one important to FA this offseason and the rise of their prospects plus improved seasons from Machado and Renfroe will give them a nice boost.
How many more years of losing are you prepared to accept while Preller continues to work on his alleged “plan?”
The way I see it, if they can’t turn a farm system this strong into a winner, it would be an indictment of an organization-wide failure to identify and develop young talent and would mean Preller isn’t long for the job anyway.
After the removal of Darren Balsley as pitching coach. You can officially count me in as a member of the “fire Preller” bandwagon.
Using that very expensive designer from Paris to design the new Uni’s has left the Padres with limited resources to sign big name FA’s. Should of went South of the border and hired El Guapo Clothiers.
If that trade simulator website is any indication, trading Myers (and his entire contract), Abrams and Morejon for an org filler is just about fair. So yeah, that is what the Padres are looking at if they wish to move Myers. If they want to get back something decent in the trade it’ll likely mean parting with one of the untouchables.
so is Weather’s + Potts and Nix .. figure Myers true value about $8-$9 mil.. so 12 × 3 = $36 mil in specs currency owed to take on 100% of Myers.. these 3 fangraphs value is about $46 mil… .. also some teams may not want Nix now so replace him with A ball Catcher Blake Hunt
Why would anyone want Potts or Nix? If I’m a GM and I’m taking Myers whole deal I want a top 100 guy, maybe not Gore or Patino, but the list would start right below them.
Nix has no value considering they were able to DFA him off the 40 man and outright him to AAA, but Hudson Potts is still a legit prospect that would slot into a bunch of team’s organizational top 10s. He definitely has some trade value
They have to consider a move like that if they ever want to spend more $$$ again.
This”trade simulator” in one person’s opinion on what’s fair value. Why employ GM’s when your site can handle all the trades? Why bargain in life and in sales when the simulator can tell you what’s fair. Nobody else gets a say, huh?
I said “if it’s any indication” funny guy. It’s your choice whether or not you think that trade is fair.
I think the best fit for SDP from Sox is not Betts ..but Benintendi + Price packaged together +$37 mil for Myers $20 + Hedges $3 + Weathers + Arias + Morejon + Naylor…
sox get most of the $$ relief they need to stay under (-$14 mil..need like -$20)..best defensive C in baseball who will hit much better in the AL bandboxes vs Petco ..2 promising lefty P who project at worst as #3/4 types with upside Arias who is a very nice looking IF spec and Naylor who is a pure hitter Better suited for the AL and very much profiles into a lefty Nick Castellanos.. a Win/Win trade for both really.. Allows SD to still pursue a Wheeler/MadBum/Orodozzi/Ryu type SP in FA and brings another WS postseason experienced SP to SD in Price and position player Beni to the fold
Myers is dead weight, sox are set at catcher, redsox would laugh at shipping out nearly $40m in payroll assistance, and, if anything happens with benny it’s an extension to stay in boston.
Nice wish list, but time to wake up. I’d give that deal a zero percent chance of happening
We need a backup catcher if we non-tender Leon, and Hedges could be a classic post-hype addition.
I like the package a lot, except obviously Myers. The problem is the money. If the RS give up Price + $37M, and absorb Myers, then it is the equivalent of Myers $22.5M + $37M/3= 12.3M, in exchange for Price’s $32M. So we’d be -$3M on that part.
Heck, I would still do it and trade Betts to someone else. FWIW, this is exactly what i am talking about. SD has a gazillion trading chips.
Its not the total dollars that matter to the Red Sox, its the AAV. That is what is counted against the Luxury Tax. Price is $31 million AAV. Myers is $13.833 million AAV. That gives the Red Sox $17 million more in payroll flexibility towards staying under the cap.
Price is owed $96 million and Myers $60 million, so $36 million would even out the money, but it would not lower the Padres payroll which is an issue for them.
Another issue is that Price is entering his age 34 season and was only league average last season. He is not an upgrade for the Padres.
So how do you structure a deal so it lowers the Padres payroll and adds value? Taking on Price at $19 million AAV while getting rid of Myers $20 million AAV doesn’t help enough to add any other pieces and Price is not a top of the rotation starter anymore. Not even a #2. He doesn’t add value to the trade.
Benintendi is a LHB and as such would add value to the Padres, but he was an exactly league average hitter that played below average defense last season. The guys mentioned, “Hedges + Weathers + Arias(???) + Morejon + Naylor”, are worth more than Benintendi is long term. If you meant Urias, then just forget it.
Price & $36 million + Benintendi for Myers, Lucchesi or Lauer, Margot, and Bolanos or Lawson would work value wise and would lower the Padres payroll by another $5 million. That might work.
That trade simulator website says Price and Benintendi for Myers, Lucchesi and Margot with no cash thrown in is fair.
Price does not appear to have any kind of no-trade protection.
Price for Myers straight up appears to be a pretty fair trade as well.
Padres don’t want or need Price or Benintendi, so who cares what your stimulator wants?
A Price for Myers framework could definitely make sense for both teams.
Well, except for the fact Boston needs SP and has no use for a washed up 5th OF.
Meyers can’t handle RF in fenway, there’s a superior league minimum paid bat for 1b who’s about ready to make the jump, and if anyone with unimpressive defense while shifting jbj/benny around goes to LF it’ll be JDM.
So SD gets an experienced SP they want, and the redsox get… Nothing at all?
That 12m you claim boston saves in the swap doesn’t even buy a FA SP to go back in the rotation. That’s the problem.
You need to view the boston ball club as intending to contend in 2020, and, only interested in trades that help in the short/long term to that goal. On paper, the Boston roster is closer to contending than the SD one as it sits as well. To find a good trade you need to give them something that they NEED after all consequences of the trade are added. Not just something that if you squint hard enough at just the right angle there’s a 5% chance they can make work.
Myers trade DOA unless it comes with 2 of the “untouchables” in tow.
Myers is $13.833 million AAV.
———————————–
Good point. Yeah, I’d do that.
Should at least pursue one top FA SP. Then acquire more rotation help with trades.
The Padres should focus on trading with other rebuilding teams. The Blue Jays are looking for pitching and are willing to trade Gurriel Jr. in order to acquire that.
The Tigers are seeking players on the offensive side and willing to trade Boyd in order to acquire that.
The Marlins and Orioles want to excellerate their rebuild and have useful players that could be had.
There is a wealth of opportunities in the bowels of the MLB!!
I like it.
Either JD or Mookie will be moved. Don’t be surprised to see JD’s name surface again to the White Sox. IMO Bloom may like Mookie’s offensive and defensive ability.
Could the RSox get Moncada, Kopech and a prospect for either JD or Mookie?
MLBTR comments have mentioned the Padres, Dodgers, Cards among other candidates for Mookie. Making both players available may open more teams to the bystanders.
Mookie or JD could be the key to a WS appearance
No, they absolutely could not.
They absolutely could not get Moncada OR Kopech for JD, and they couldn’t get Moncada OR Kopech for 1 year of Mookie.
No, JD has another opt out opportunity after 2020 and again after 2021, That will also lessen his return. Moncada and Kopech are part of their future core of the White Sox and will not be traded.
“Word is Preller is also looking to improve the Padres’ catching situation, finding a starter who hits better than Austin Hedges and defends better than Francisco Mejia”
Grandal. He is the only one and he will be too expensive of a FA if the Padres are strapped financially into only spending $130-140 million. Anyone else is a backup. The problem is that catcher is a position that most teams fill with 2-3 guys and don’t really have a starter. Only 4 catchers got enough PA in 2019 to qualify for the batting title Only 14 catchers had 400 PA. Those are the only starters There were only 30 that got 300 PA and even with his bad hitting Hedges was middle of the road among those guys in overall contribution.
“The Padres’ right-handed heavy lineup contributed to their offense being among the worst in the majors against right-handed pitching. A bat who can hit from both sides is considered a must, and it is generally believed that player will be an outfielder. The Padres were involved in trade talks regarding the Rays’ Austin Meadows, the Rangers’ Nomar Mazara and the Dodgers’ Alex Verdugo in July.”
Austin Meadows is a 4 WAR player with 4 years of team control. That will take 2 top 100 prospects plus more to pry him loose. Mazara is a bad player on both offense and defense and he is only controllable through 2021. I don’t think he has ever played even league average ball. No reason to trade for a guy like that. Why would the Dodgers trade a valuable piece like Verdugo with 5 years of control in division? None of those options make sense for the Padres. The best left hand batting fit in the OF is already on the team. Great athlete with a good arm that is just bad at his current position. i will let you guess who it is.
“It has become apparent to the Padres that Luis Urias is not the long-term answer at second base”
To whom has it become apparent after 77 starts that Urias is not the answer? If they have really made that determination, especially after how well he played after being called back up in July, I have to question their ability to make those decisions. Urias is no different in his abilities than he was last offseason. He is a guy that is going to hit .270-.280/.370-.380 with low double digit home runs and play Gold Glove caliber defense at 2B. We saw that all he needs is to play every day so he can make the necessary adjustments. If that is not the future of the team then the Padres have serious issues.
It has become apparent to me that Acee is used as a vehicle for disinformation by the Padres. If anything he said is true then the Padres are in danger of never competing while Preller is the GM and the $50 million per season they are spending on the Machado and Hosmer deals will hamper their ability to ever get a good FA or compete in the NL West if $130-140 million is the top end of payroll.
He traded Grandal for Matt Kemp. That is how valuable Preller thinks Yasmani Grandal is.
Fair. But that was also before Grandal was a consistent 5+ win player…
Preller liked Grandal so much that he traded him for a completely underwater contract when Grandal was PRE-ARB. That means if Grandal was really a problem they could have simply NON-TENDERED him.
Then the Padres are not getting a starting catcher who is more valuable to winning games than the ones they have. Grandal is the only option that would conceivably be available among guys that could be thought of as a starting catcher. Everyone else is a platoon or backup.
They could trade Mejia or move him to LF and sign Castro. He is a plus defensive catcher and he hits RHP well. He is just not an every day type of player. 80 games or so is all you will get from him.
I’m good with Mejia and Hedges for now. Campusano should be ready sometime in 2021.
Urias wont produce like that, looks like a utility player at best. Against major league pitching he looked Extremely mediocre at best, again the best prospect padres didn’t ruin was tatis jr. and the jury is still out of he can replicate what he did last year.
Urias looked pretty darn good in September when they stopped misusing him.
In an interview with Univision last month Urias said that after the Dodger series in late August that Padres hitting coach Johnny Washington told him to do what felt most comfortable to him at the plate. He hit .300/.371/.425/.796 in September.
What Urias needed was for Padres management to stop messing with what works for him and to play every day so he can make adjustments at the plate. The results were great once they did that.
This seems to be a real problem with lots of Padres hitters. Once management/ coaches start tinkering with them everything falls apart. Manuel Margot comes to mind. Guy hits like .270 his rookie year, then proceeds to suck 2018-2019 while the team “improves” his swing.
Which is a big part of why Green was fired. Padres players advanced through the system and then got to the majors and their development took a step backwards.
The system as a whole was the best in plate discipline in baseball, but suddenly all those players lost it in the majors. That was the major league coaching staff’s fault.
Players work to perfect their swing for a decade before they make the majors. You do not even try to make wholesale changes once they are there. Its about day to day adjustments of what is already working for that individual player, not complete overhauls at that level.
Urias, Margot, Renfroe, and others have come up to the majors and struggled because they were being told they had to change what had worked for them all their lives. Another problem for the Padres is the idea Green floated that changing positions should not affect your hitting. They killed Myers by moving him around so much.
I still like Urias, but that .796 September OPS came with an unsustainable .393 BABIP.
re: Urias
Urias has had a couple of opportunities to perform, he hasn’t, He isn’t hitting MLB fastaballs. Whether that means he’s a AAAA player or that he’s still adjusting, he’s not a lock for 2020.
The Padres are a win-now team in 2020. If they can upgrade to a vet at 2b, it makes 2020 a more certain thing. That puts Urias on the trading block. That’s not “dumping” him; it’s getting back value that the Padres need in 2020, and possibly, more than Urias can deliver.
That’s how it works at the MLB level. Yes, it CAN take a couple of 2-3 years for a MLB ballplayer to mature, to contribute fully at the MLB level. And as we’ve seen with Myers and others, those projections are at times vapor. A “win-now” team can’t take chances on Urias developing, if they can fill that roster spot with a steady defensive hand, high OBP, and good AVG/OPS ballplayer. That’s what they need now, and Urias ain’t that now.
Urias is a great pickup for another team, in another situation, and they’ll have to “pay” the Padres price to get him.
Congratulations. You got everything wrong.
Urias has 77 starts in the majors and until he was called back up in late July he had not had 3 starts in a row. Hardly enough playing time to even try to say he has had enough opportunities to prove himself.
Urias has hit FB better than anything else and in the 2nd half he hit .271 off FB. In September he hit .322 off FB and .300 overall so showed incredible progress. That is what teams are looking for in young players.
Urias is providing the one thing the Padres are missing on offense, a guy that gets on base consistently. His .341 OBP in the 2nd half when he had regular at bats was the best on the team of the regulars. Urias plays Gold Glove caliber defense,
Smart teams do not put players like Urias on the block at all and the Padres have made this mistake before with Rizzo so they should be doubly careful.
Urias is the now and the future at 2B for the Padres if they are smart. Preller hasn’t shown he is smart yet.
I get it, I get it. You’re in love with Urias, and simple logic isn’t going to dissuade ya. I’m cool with that. May Urias take his team to the World Series. I’m just pretty sure that by opening day, that team won’t be the Padres, cause he’ll have been traded.
Then you start both the “Fire Preller” and “Old Salt sucks” thread. 😉
@OltSaltUSNR is on his knees BEGGING for another Anthony Rizzo situation.
“Show Me Your Tatis” is just on his knees, and I have no interest in what the heck he’s doing down there. To each their own.
You’re the one BEGGING for another Anthony Rizzo situation.
And Urias was BETTER this year than Rizzo was in 2011. And while playing a more premium position.
Urias will never be another Rizzo not close, if the right trade comes forth for a decent SP and they want Urias I say do the deal now. Unless everyone is happy with another 90 loss season.
You’re right. He’s better. His OPS this year was .132 higher than Rizzo’s was at the same age despite Andy Green’s disgusting misuse of him and while playing a position further to the right on the defensive spectrum.
Yeah, but you’re in love with Myers, right? And he’s got a lot more history than Urias.
We don’t yet know what Urias will become, but he’s shown signs of a tremendous upside.
BUT – for the right deal to improve this team … we can’t afford personal favorites.
The Padres need to add 20+ wins to have a realistic shot at the WC. It’s been done — the Twins added 23 last season, Arizona added 29 from 2010 to 2011. Rare, but not unprecedented.
We ended exactly where Pythagoras said we should, so there’s no cheap positive regression. Anyway, we need a lot of help. So much help that it’s likely dumb to say the team is in a win-now mode without being able to spend seriously in FA. I don’t blame the owners for that — Preller’s decision-making on where to spend money is very suspect. But there are too many holes to fill without emptying the farm, and even then, it’s a WC spot, with the Dodgers continuing to dominate for years because we got impatient.
Yes Urias is that now. Whether you like it, or not.
If the Padres are concerned about whether Urias will hit or not, don’t you think that other teams would also have that same concern?
Acee has actually been critical of the Padres. But only occasionally. Typically, you’re right: the Padres use him to spread their propaganda. That’s the problem with such a weak media market.
don’t believe a word Acee says..he is a pond being use to keep Stras/Cole and to an extend Wheeler price down by pretending “not” to be interested.. siedler (owner) was on 97.3 FM the fan last week and said Pads would make financial and prospect currency (both) resources available to bring a winner to SD..Grain of salt man grain of salt
Sure he is. Agents are known to base their negotiations on what beat writers publish but to ignore what owners say on the radio.
Almost owner and GM, every winter, says something like “we can make whatever moves we want if they make sense for us.”
Those three pitchers are going to cost X, and no amount of agitprop by the Padres will have any effect on what X is.
Well you won’t see Stras in a brown and gold uni that’s for sure
Agree with most (maybe all) of what you say, and especially about Urias.
Minor league pitchers throw fastballs every bit as hard as major leaguers, they throw them MORE often, and Urias hit 308/397/433. He did it while being much younger than the competition. He walked as much as he struck out until the tam asked him to hit for more power, and even then his walk rate stayed good. Our team OBP stinks, we strikeout way too much, but the Padres have decided Urias is definitely not an answer? He also gives you another backup SS.
Preller’s financial decisions have put the team in this position. They’re still paying off Kemp (Oliveras). The Myers extension gave Wil security without the team getting any cost savings. The Hosmer contract was a disaster when the ink dried. If he was ever really interested in Mazara except as a lottery ticket, we’re screwed. And not in a fun sweaty way.
“Minor league pitchers throw fastballs every bit as hard as major leaguers, they throw them MORE often”
I’m not going to spend time debunking this, but the average fastball is NOT the same speed in AAA as the MLB. These stats were discussed in SDUT articles about Urias throughout the 2019 season. The average MLB fastball is about 92 MPH, and the average AAA is sub-90’s. maybe as low as 87 mph (that’s the number that sticks in my mind).
I don’t mind the Urias “homers”. Whether he says or goes is not up to me, nor do I care. I just want a winning ball team. We’ll see what the Padres do. If they make a trade, then I was correct in my speculation. If they don’t then you are correct, or maybe a match up wasn’t found that the Padres like. They aren’t “dumping” Urias; he’s a valuable trade chip for something they want now.
Put another way, given a choice between trading Patino or Urias to get the Pitcher they are targeting, I’d expect them to move Urias.
The minor leagues are full of guys who throw in the upper 90’s. They never make it to the majors because they can’t control their pitches, have no secondaries or a combination of the two. If Urias truly just couldn’t catch up to pitches faster than 90 mph as you say, he would have never made it past A-ball.
Urias is good trade bait along with a few top prospects for a good SP maybe a No.2 with at least three yrs before arb.
If they trade Urias who plays 2B? Kinsler?
But not all fastballs are equal.
Late movement, pinpoint control, and elevated spin rate make a MLB fastball more difficult than many minor leaguers to hit.
There is a difference
People say that Urias just can’t catch up to pitches faster than 95 mph. If that were true he would have never made it past A-ball.
This makes the machado and hosmer signings look even worse. Padres arent a contender and wont be with so many holes and no desire of spending cash. If they wanted to compete they need to spend on strasburg and wheeler, then trade some of these prospects for actual positional mlb players. Having players like will meyers, hosmer, renfroe, margot as starters you know your in trouble.
Machado was a good signing. He was only good, not great, in 2019, but he was still worth his money, and the team had nobody coming to play 3b.
The Hosmer signing was dumb in every way, shape, and form.
The Myers deal paid him full FA value for arbitration years. The whole point of signing a player to a pre-arb extension is that the team gets a somewhat lower cost and the player gets security. Preller forgot all about the first part.
Myers, Mejia, Morejon, Baez, Bolanos to KC for Perez, Duffy, Kennedy. SD gets rid of Myers opening up a spot for a more productive player, gets 3 useful players without giving up the farm, frees up 2 roster spots while KC saves about 7 million and gets younger. Sure KC doesn’t want Myers, Mejia wouldn’t be ideal for them either, but they really need the young pitching. They could plug Myers in at 1B and hope for the best. They could possibly turn around and market Mejia immediately or try to work with him. Viloria seems like their catcher of the future and seems pretty good for his age, but Mejia is still worth taking a longer look at for a team that isn’t planning on winning for a few years.
Padres would need to eat half his salary (Hosmer or Myers) in any trade, but I know Myers is gone and his china doll IL over the last years. Some team will take him if he gets his salary down to $8M or $9M a year.
Nothing good anywhere in KC. See Myers and Hosmer as proof.
I was just thinking the last time SD won any kind of award was 2010 when Bud Black got MOY and he played in KC.
Could it be that Pads plan on shipping the full (or vast majority of) salaries of Myers and Hosmer, each along with some enticing prospects that would be top 5-10 in most orgs but don’t sniff top 20 in ours, in return for replacement level-ish OF and 1B, then just spending the Myers/Hosmer dollar amounts on Stras and Wheeler?
Hosmer has a full NTC.
could still be a sound strategy with just Myers then?
What you need is a club like the orioles.
Farm in the gutter, insufficient mlb talent to build around, and no realistic hope to contend for a couple years.
Question is, how much money do you need to include, and how many prospects will it take to get them to bite?
That’s how you dump myers
I’d take Trey Mancini off their hands.
If your expecting Baltimore to take Myers, you are not going to get anything of value back. You will not get Mancini.
He’ll waive it if a trade is agreed upon. The bigger issue is finding someone that would take him.
This is based on what exactly?
If he’d simply “waive it if a trade is agreed upon” no matter the team, he wouldn’t have put a NTC in his contract to begin with. And if he’s that desperate to get out of SD that he doesn’t care where he goes despite having a NTC, the organization is in much worse shape than I thought.
Sorry bro. I just don’t see the NTC as an obstacle to moving Hosmer. Now the money on the other hand…
An NTC is just money. It can be negotiated in the contract, a bonus, or maybe as part of an extension, or picking up a team option early.
If a ballplayer with an NTC isn’t wanted on a team, he’ll deal if another team wants him badly enough to pay his price.
The reason NTC’s aren’t often waived, is because when a team wants to be rid of a player they signed to a long term contract, or a vet with a contract protected by an NTC, the money to buy out an NTC (in some way, shape, or form), just isn’t there.
An NTC is a “$poison pill$” agents negotiate to give the players control over their career.
“Sorry bro. I just don’t see the NTC as an obstacle to moving Hosmer. Now the money on the other hand…”
I don’t disagree with that. The NTC is currently not an obstacle because no team wants any part of that awful contract. But IF a team was dumb/desperate enough to want him, it 100% would become an obstacle – assuming he doesn’t absolutely hate San Diego and want to get out at any cost.
I just don’t see him blocking a trade if he has the chance. I mean it ain’t like he wanted to play in SD from the get-go. He signed here cuz that’s where the money was. So did Machado.
Which bring me to my next point: Machado signed with SD because of the money. Not because they signed Hosmer first. Not because they had Tatis. And not because of the brown uniforms.
Agree. It was an obstacle with Nevin. It was an obstacle with Adam Jones more recently.
It’s hard to think of a realistic scenario in which Hosmer is asked to waive it, at least before he gets cheaper in a few years. He has a great 2020 but the team flounders — you’re still paying part of it, either in money or prospects, and taking a chunky contract back.
I don’t know, I heard Machado really likes the brown uniforms.
The FO should make a remark that Hosmer is not what they expected, let’s crush his ego and get him out of here. Buy out half his contract do what you need also with Myers buy oit 60% of his contract and show him the door as Fowler states, he’s history, make those words stick Fowler.
padre ownership Siedler and Fowler both have said Hosmer is worth his contract for the SDP with all he does (besides performance which is solid just not spectacular).. He is the leader in the clubhouse..he works hard and leads by example ..and he plays the role of big Brother to the youngins.. so NTC or not ..i don’t think Hosmer is going anywhere ..
They’re either ignorant or lying.
Hosmer’s performance on the field has been crap. You don’t even have to get all deeply analytical to see it. I fully expect you to highlight his RBI total in 2019, because you seem to be That Guy, but as a Padre he’s hit like a middle infielder.
Hosmer’s leadership in the clubhouse has not kept Myers focused. It didn’t help Urias adjust to the majors. It didn’t keep the team from floundering after the Reyes trade.
Hosmer may have another 3+ win season in him. At the very least maybe he’ll stop dropping throws. He better, because no one is taking that contract off our hands.
He can’t hit lefties and made 14 errors he needs to be platooned which is good owe guy 100 mil that’s platoon player
Stras is out of the picture, way too much money even if Myers and Hosmer are gone, maybe Wheeler for three yrs. tops
I read it as.. they need to find a way to trade and unload some of Myers salary before they can explore spending more lol. No team will take his contract unless the Padres attach prospects.
Leverage in a word.
Why broadcast that you are going to bolster your staff through trades? Advertising that only weakens your position in regards to leverage in a trade unless…
This may be a smokescreen in order to drive the price for Strasburg into a more reasonable range.
Say if Strasburg privately prefers San Diego On Boras end, information that Strasburg has a deal with Washington lined up is used as leverage against the Pads. On the Pads end the appearance of “bowing out” is a tactic to drive down the price.
Time will tell but this time of year is all just posturing and maneuvering.
Good point can’t be this stupid announcing that they want to trade prospects. I don’t see them again with lithe little to show for 444 mil total last 2 years to Hosmer and Machado going down that road again
They are going to let lame duck GM spend their $ trying to get respectable doubt it
AJ will make some stupid trades this off season just to keep his job in hopes who he gets for one or two years saves his bacon. He should have been booted out the door with Green.
As stated in the latest article Stras is out of the picture no way no how, we blew our Millions on three guys, two are total duds. I don’t care how AJ wants Stras its not going to happen, Save your time and energy and go after some of the other SP’s that can be had for two or three yrs tops.
Stras is not going to ever be a Padre period. Stop dreaming OK.
Too bad they are trading with Preller at the helm. He is a God awful GM.
I prefer the Padres as opportunistic buyers this offseason. Like what Houston did with G. Cole two years ago. Shame that the ownership mandate to win in 2020 probably means Preller is about to do something incredibly… stupid.
So get rid of Hosmer and Myers and go get Stras!
NOBODY in their right mind will trade for Hosmer or Myers were stuck with these two losers, thanks AJ.
Who plays first then? It’s you says Naylor you need to be smacked in the mouth
Naylor
After watching the playoffs and WS were in deep dudu if the fans think we’ll be competitive next year, were not even close. Way to many K’s, low obp, weak pitching staff except for one or two pitchers, OF is in shambles, C is weak I guess that’s all, except for a 1B who makes way too many errors, uncertainly at 2B I better stop that’s almost the whole team. As the team stands now I’d say another 90 loss season.
Sounds like you need to pick out a new team.
That day can’t come soon enough
That’s bc hedges led the catching pack.
Dad’s fans you have Manny and lots of prospects. Enjoy watching Strasberg mow you down for the next four years.
That’s all Padre fans need another strike out machine Kris Bryant with 733 in 5 years.
great. patience from fans and owners is going to completely undo all the time and effort in amassing all that talent. which is what Preller’s specialty is. first of all we don’t need any starters. secondly, if we want one, they need to be a STUD. not just another middle rotation arm. sack up an sign Strasburg or just roll with what we have:
Paddack
Richards
Limet
Gore
Luchessi, Lauer, Patino… etc.
way better than average staff with good depth.