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Sandy Alcantara

Latest On Marlins’ Rotation

By Steve Adams | March 7, 2022 at 3:51pm CDT

It’s been clear throughout the offseason that the Marlins are willing to deal from a deep stockpile of starting pitching that is perhaps unrivaled in terms of quantity. The Fish already moved righty Zach Thompson to the Pirates in the trade that netted them catcher Jacob Stallings, and they’re expected to continue pursuing offensive help after the lockout — be it on the trade market or in free agency. With an enviable stockpile of arms, there’s been plenty of speculation as to who might be on the move, and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald lists righty Elieser Hernandez as one possibility. Perhaps even more notably, Jackson adds that Miami isn’t particularly interested in moving any of its top three starters: Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers and Pablo Lopez.

On Alcantara and Rogers, that’s wholly unsurprising. Miami just signed Alcantara to a five-year, $56MM extension shortly before the lockout, and the possibility of an Alcantara trade evaporated the moment the ink on that deal dried. Rogers, meanwhile, might’ve had a legitimate shot at National League Rookie of the Year had he not stepped away from baseball for a harrowing month of August, during which his mother was placed on a ventilator after contracting Covid-19 and both of his grandfathers passed away. Rogers, now 24, still made the All-Star team and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting after tossing 133 innings of 2.64 ERA ball.

As for Lopez, he seems more like a potential on-paper trade candidate given that he’s now into his arbitration years and the Marlins have so many up-and-coming arms who could potentially offset his loss. He’s more established than the arms behind him but seemingly a tier below Alcantara and Rogers; that ostensibly would make him valuable enough to help fetch a legitimate bat for the lineup but not necessarily irreplaceable to the extent of the organization’s top two rotation members.

That said, Lopez also missed more than two months with a strained rotator cuff, and the Marlins can hardly be blamed if they’re not open to selling low on the talented 26-year-old. Over his past 160 innings, Lopez has notched a 3.26 ERA with a 26.4% strikeout rate, a 6.7% walk rate and a 49% grounder rate — all very strong marks.

As for Hernandez, he’s also 26-year-old righty who, like Lopez, is now into his arbitration years and controlled another three seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn just $1.4MM this coming season, making him overwhelmingly affordable for any team in need of starting pitching. Of course, Hernandez’s own injury troubles, which have suppressed his innings totals, are the reason that projected price tag is so low. Over the past two seasons, he’s missed time with a lat strain, a quad strain and biceps inflammation.

Selected out of the Astros’ organization in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft, Hernandez was clobbered in his first two seasons of big league action before beginning to find success in 2020. The aforementioned injuries have limited him to just 77 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, but he’s logged a tidy 3.84 ERA in that time while posting a sharp 26.3% strikeout rate and an outstanding 5.7% walk rate.

The problem for Hernandez, in addition to his difficulty staying on the field, has been a penchant for serving up the long ball. Hernandez has surrendered an average of 2.09 homers per nine frames — this in spite of the Marlins’ pitcher-friendly home setting. He averages just 91.2 mph on a four-seam fastball that opponents bashed at a .350/.394/.690 pace this past season. It’s a brutal line for plate appearances that culminate with Hernandez’s primary offering being thrown, but working in Hernandez’s favor is that his other two offerings have absolutely flummoxed opposing batters. In 2021, opponents batted .188/.241/.400 with a 30.6% strikeout rate in plate appearances that ended with Hernandez’s slider. They posted an even worse .167/.211/.333 slash against his changeup, going down in 18.2% of those plate appearances.

A team that believes itself capable of optimizing Hernandez’s fastball could feel there’s untapped potential. Given his heater’s lack of velocity and substandard spin rate, Hernandez will probably always be somewhat homer-prone, but even tamping that down to merely higher-than-average levels (as opposed to nearly the highest in the league) could go a long way toward a Hernandez breakout. Even if he simply continues on as a homer-prone fourth starter with injury concerns, his price tag in arbitration is so low that he’d provide surplus value in that capacity.

Looking past Hernandez, there are still other arms to at least consider. The Marlins don’t seem likely to sell low on Sixto Sanchez when his return from shoulder surgery is still unsettled, but he’s just one of many rotation candidates they have. Jesus Luzardo struggled immensely both in Oakland and Miami last year. Edward Cabrera is a touted top prospect himself but battled command issues in last year’s brief MLB debut. Further down the depth chart are fifth starter candidates like Nick Neidert, Braxton Garrett and Cody Poteet. Top prospects like Max Meyer, Jake Eder (recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Eury Perez would presumably only be in play if the Marlins were poised to land a major name on the trade market.

Just how the Marlins will look to fortify their roster after the lockout remains up in the air. Miami is known to be on the hunt for an additional bat to deepen the lineup — ideally one that can play in the outfield. A center fielder would be most prudent, but the club has previously indicated a willingness to play offseason signee Avisail Garcia in center if a prominent corner slugger can be acquired via trade or signed. If the former route is the path they choose to tread, Hernandez would be a sensible part of a package, but there are so many arms in the system that it’s easy to draw up various permutations of deals.

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Miami Marlins Elieser Hernandez Pablo Lopez Sandy Alcantara Trevor Rogers

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Marlins Sign Sandy Alcantara To Contract Extension

By Steve Adams | November 30, 2021 at 4:57pm CDT

After months of back-and-forth, the Marlins and right-hander Sandy Alcantara have agreed upon a long-term deal. The team announced Tuesday they’ve signed the CAA Sports client to a five-year contract extension that also contains a club option covering the 2027 season. Alcantara will reportedly be guaranteed $56MM, including a $2MM buyout on the 2027 option valued at $21MM. He receives a $1.5MM signing bonus as part of the deal.

Sandy Alcantara | Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Alcantara, 26, has been in extension talks at least dating back to July, when reports of negotiations first surfaced. While the Marlins’ first overtures were said to be low enough that Alcantara’s camp considered them a nonstarter, a $55MM+ guarantee would be a record extension for a pitcher with between three and four years of Major League service time, topping the previous highwater mark set by Carlos Martinez in Feb. 2017 (five years, $51MM).

Acquired from the Cardinals alongside Zac Gallen in the 2017 trade that sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis, Alcantara has steadily improved over the course of his four seasons in Miami. He’s always been a hard-throwing sinker specialist, but his strikeout and walk rates early in his career were pedestrian, to say the least. Alcantara racked up 197 innings with the Fish in 2019, but he looked more like a potential innings-eater than a star at that point. Fast forward to 2021, however, and Alcantara looks more like a building block than that stable No. 4 starter he was in ’19.

This past season, Alcantara finished fourth in MLB with 205 2/3 innings thrown, averaged 98.1 mph on his heater and posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (24.0%), walk rate (6.0%) and ground-ball rate (55.3%). All three are vastly better than the league average, so it’s little surprise that Alcantara’s 3.19 ERA was largely supported by fielding-independent marks. This year’s 13.3% swinging-strike rate was easily a career-high, and Alcantara’s gaudy 36.7% opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone ranked third among qualified starters. Alcantara also thrives when it comes to inducing weak contact and ranks above the league average in Statcast’s “expected” ERA, batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA.

Alcantara had been set for his first trip through the arbitration process this winter and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.5MM. He’d have been arb-eligible twice more, securing a pair of additional raises in the process. The proposed deal would buy out two arbitration seasons and, depending on how bullishly one cares to project Alcantara’s would-be raises in years two and three of arbitration, places a value of around $14-15MM per season on those two free-agent campaigns. That, of course, still represents a bargain for Alcantara if he can replicate his 2021 breakout, but that type of tradeoff is commonplace for players signing extensions well before they’d otherwise reach the open market.

The $11MM annual value — a figure which, as with many extensions, is skewed by the arbitration seasons included in the deal — is significant for a typically low-payroll Marlins club. However, Miami doesn’t have a single guaranteed contract on the books after the 2023 season, and second-year GM Kim Ng has been vocal in her desire to spend more money this offseason. Much of that is expected to come via free agency, but locking up one of their current stars to keep him in the fold beyond his previously allotted team control certainly speaks to that increased financial wherewithal as well.

Miami has reportedly considered trading from its impressive collection of young starting pitchers as the organization eyes long-term options both in the outfield and behind the plate. That said, Alcantara would always have been one of the toughest Marlins starters to obtain — if not the toughest — and a five-year extension would further diminish the already slim chances of him being dealt. The Fish could still dangle any combination of Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez and Jesus Luzardo, while near-MLB prospects like Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera (among many others) would surely carry very strong trade value. Injured youngsters like Sixto Sanchez (shoulder capsule surgery) and Jake Eder (Tommy John surgery) are appealing in their own right — health concerns notwithstanding.

With such a bounty of young arms, the Marlins obviously could have weathered the hit of trading Alcantara, but today’s extension instead likely portends a long-term rotation headed by Alcantara and 2021 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up Trevor Rogers. Who’ll fill the spots behind that dynamic pairing is dependent on how the offseason trade market unfolds, but the Fish are well-positioned to continue making strides thanks largely to that near-unparalleled collection of pitching talent.

Craig Mish of SportsGrid first reported the Marlins and Alcantara were both nearing agreement and had agreed upon on a five-year extension worth more than $56MM. Mish and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reported the presence of a sixth-year club option valued at $21MM, as well as the $1.5MM signing bonus.

Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

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Marlins Considering Trading From Rotation Surplus

By Anthony Franco | November 8, 2021 at 8:36pm CDT

The Marlins have one of the league’s most pitching-heavy rosters, with an established group of young starters and some more well-regarded prospects nearing big league readiness. With the team expected to look for upgrades both behind the plate and in the outfield this winter, the Fish have seemed speculative candidates to make one of their controllable arms available to bolster other areas on the roster.

Miami’s at least debating that possibility, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports (on Twitter) the team is considering whether to trade one of their arbitration-eligible hurlers this offseason. Sandy Alcantara, Pablo López and Elieser Hernández are each controllable through 2024 via arbitration, and Morosi suggests the Marlins could be open to moving someone from that group.

Alcantara would seemingly have the greatest appeal on the trade market, but it’s also possible Miami could make him off limits. There’s reportedly been optimism about their chances of working out an extension with the All-Star hurler, who was one of just four pitchers to eclipse 200 innings this past season. Alcantara, who is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $4.5MM arbitration salary, worked to a stellar 3.19 ERA despite that heavy workload, inducing grounders on over half the balls in play against him.

López has been one of the league’s steadier, more underrated hurlers over the past couple seasons. Going back to the start of 2020, the right-hander has a 3.26 ERA/3.21 FIP across 160 innings. Only projected for a $2.5MM salary, López’s resume should pique the interest of plenty of pitching-needy clubs. But his status could be complicated a rotator cuff strain in his throwing shoulder that cost him essentially the entire second half of 2021. López landed on the shelf in mid-July and didn’t return until the final day of the season, when he tossed 1 2/3 innings in a deliberately brief start.

Hernández is coming off an injury-impacted season of his own. The righty missed two months early in the year with biceps inflammation, then suffered a quad strain in his first start back that cost him another two months. He made eleven starts altogether, posting a 4.18 ERA with quality strikeout and walk numbers but an extremely high home run rate. He’s projected for a $1.4MM salary.

With all three pitchers likely to have bargain salaries in 2022, general manager Kim Ng and her staff needn’t feel any immediate financial pressure to move Alcantara, López or Hernández this winter. But it’s little surprise the Marlins are at least considering that course of action, since trading one of those starters looks to be the most straightforward way to acquire controllable position player talent. Even if Miami moved one of the aforementioned trio, they’d still have Trevor Rogers, Sixto Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett and Zach Thompson among their big league ready rotation options, with top prospect Max Meyer on the doorstep as well after a dominant season in Double-A.

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Marlins Notes: Free Agency, Castellanos, Alcantara

By Anthony Franco | October 2, 2021 at 9:54pm CDT

9:54PM: Marlins CEO Derek Jeter backed up Ng’s comments, telling Bally Sports Florida that “For the first time really since we’ve been here as an ownership group, I expect to be pretty active” in the offseason.  Jeter also said the focus will be on adding hitting to augment “one of the top pitching staffs in baseball.”

7:35AM: The Marlins are wrapping up their 11th losing season in the past 12 years, with last year’s shortened-season playoff berth looking like an aberration. Miami’s young but promising pitching staff actually put together an above-average campaign, but they were let down by a lack of run support. The Marlins’ 615 runs scored is the third-lowest tally in the majors, with the team’s .241/.308/.387 slash line (excluding pitchers) checking in sixth from the bottom.

Bolstering the lineup will be an obvious priority for the club this offseason, and general manager Kim Ng acknowledged as much Friday afternoon in an appearance on the MLB Network. Most notably, Ng suggested ownership is prepared to support at least some measure of activity in free agency. “We are going to have some money to spend. … We feel that we are primed to do very well with the pitching set up as it is and with us being able to spend some money on bats this offseason.”

Miami typically runs one of the lowest payrolls in the league, but their ledger is fairly open. Miguel Rojas’ $5.5MM option recently vested, and Anthony Bass’ $3MM salary is the only other guaranteed deal on the books. (Miami also owes the Yankees $3MM as part of the Giancarlo Stanton trade). The Fish will have one of the game’s more significant arbitration classes, with Jesús Aguilar, Brian Anderson, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo López and Elieser Hernández among those in line for raises. Even then, Miami should have a bit of spending capacity before closing in on this year’s estimated $63MM payroll (via Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez).

Ng was unsurprisingly vague about precisely how much money the front office will have to play with, but they’re seemingly at least considering one of the more notable players likely to be on the market. On his Swings and Mishes podcast, Craig Mish of the Miami Herald suggested the Marlins could be in the market for South Florida native Nick Castellanos, who is expected to opt out of the remaining two years and $32MM on his current deal with the Reds.

On the surface, the Marlins certainly seem a long shot to wind up landing Castellanos, as Mish acknowledges. The 29-year-old placed tenth on MLBTR’s most recent free agent power rankings, with a four or five-year deal worth $20MM+ annually seemingly within the realm of possibility coming off a season in which he’s hitting .308/.362/.570 with 33 home runs. For a Miami team that balked at meeting Starling Marte’s reported four-year, $50MM asking price this summer, an earnest Castellanos pursuit would require a significant change in direction, although it’s at least theoretically possible ownership and the front office would be willing to make an exception for one of the younger potential free agents on the market.

While a Castellanos deal would register as a major surprise, the team agreeing to an extension with Alcantara seems entirely plausible. There’s reportedly growing optimism the two sides can get a long-term deal done this winter, and Mish adds that such talks could result in a more team-friendly arrangement than one might expect. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently broke down the factors that could go into an Alcantara extension, although Mish hears the first-time All-Star might be willing to settle for a bit less than his maximum earning power in order to lock in some financial security before the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement on December 1.

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Marlins, Sandy Alcantara Becoming More Optimistic About Possible Extension

By Steve Adams | September 29, 2021 at 9:43am CDT

There’s “growing optimism” between the Marlins and right-hander Sandy Alcantara about a potential extension, reports Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. It’s a notable turn of events after the Marlins’ initial overtures were reported to be on the light side. Talks between the two sides have been ongoing, per Jackson, and both parties feel there’s progress being made.

It’s not clear when a theoretical deal would come together. Such matters are often reserved for later in the offseason or even Spring Training. Progress being made at this point could lead to a rare but not unheard-of September extension for a key player of this nature, or it could simply lay the groundwork for when the two parties pick things back up early in 2022.

What is clear to see is just why Miami is so keen on the idea of keeping Alcantara for the long haul. The 26-year-old righty has steadily improved in parts of four seasons with the Fish and has now emerged as the workhorse leader on the pitching staff. He’s one of just four pitchers in all of Major League Baseball to have reached the 200-inning threshold in 2021, as teams have been even more guarded than usual with pitcher workloads on the heels of the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Alcantara, however, isn’t simply a durable innings eater providing innings in bulk; he’s developed into one of the game’s most effective hurlers.

In 200 2/3 frames this year,  Alcantara boasts a strong 3.09 ERA with a roughly average 24 percent strikeout rate but near-elite walk and ground-ball rates (six percent and 53.4 percent, respectively). He averages 98.1 mph on his four-seamer and 97.5 mph on his sinker, complementing those high-speed offerings with a changeup and slider that both grade out as above-average pitches (the slider in particular). Alcantara’s 13.2 percent swinging-strike rate and huge 36.5 percent opponents’ chase rate are career-bests over a full season. This year’s ERA may look like a mere continuation of his 2020 success (3.00 ERA in 42 innings), but Alcantara has improved across the board in nearly every underlying rate stat of note.

Alcantara will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, which has been an atypical juncture for starting pitchers to agree to extensions in recent years. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco pointed out the last time extension rumors surrounding Alcantara surfaced, there are only two starting pitchers in the past half decade who’ve signed an extension when they were between three and four years of service time: Cardinals righty Carlos Martinez (five years, $51MM plus two club options) and Phillies righty Aaron Nola (four years, $45MM plus one club option).

The two contracts fall in the same realm in terms of total value, but Nola’s comparable guarantee over a shorter term was reflective of his superior results and stronger arbitration case to that point in his career. He likely prioritized a shorter deal as a trade-off, securing some early financial security while still being able to reach the market at a young enough age (31) to command a lucrative free-agent pact. Martinez’s deal surrendered considerably more team control but did so for a slightly larger guarantee that still represents a record sum for a pitcher in this service bracket.

On the surface, Alcantara has pitched well enough to stake a claim to set a new record, although it’d register as something of a surprise for a low-payroll club like Miami to set a new precedent in any service-time bracket. On the other hand, Alcantara has established himself as a high-end, foundational piece in the rotation and is now on the cusp of arbitration. That forthcoming arbitration raise gives him some leverage, as he’s all but locked up a notable salary for the first time in his career.

First-time arb-eligible pitchers have been stuck in a rather staggering rut when it comes to arbitration filings, as the repeatedly cited precedent for teams with first-time-eligible starting pitchers is Dontrelle Willis’ $4.35MM mark all the way back in 2006. David Price matched that sum in his own first-time offseason (2012), but the only first-time-eligible starting pitcher to top that mark was Dallas Keuchel ($7.25MM), who only managed to do so on the heels of being named American League Cy Young winner. Perhaps notably, Nola filed at a hearty $6.7MM before agreeing to his extension; the Phillies had countered with a $4.5MM filing figure, which would have nominally moved the precedent forward regardless of a hearing’s outcome.

Alcantara could struggle to move past that clearly dated precedent in arbitration, but he’s pitched well enough to command a salary in the low-$4MM range at the very least. Even with a step back or a notable injury in 2022, he’d be quite likely to receive a similar salary in 2023, given that a pitcher of Alcantara’s caliber wouldn’t be non-tendered after one poor or injury-marred season. All of that lessens any urgency — at least relative to a pre-arbitration scenario — to take too team-friendly an offer.

Time will tell whether the two parties can hammer out a deal, but it’s notable that the Marlins are making an attempt and are seemingly coming up from their initial proposals. They currently control Alcantara through at least the 2024 season, but even following the Nola trajectory would extend that control through 2026. Of course, we can’t know yet how any tweaks to the collective bargaining agreement might impact the arbitration process and subsequent extension structures, which only adds another layer to a complex set of negotiations.

Regardless, Alcantara looks like a focal point in an increasingly interesting Marlins pitching staff that also features Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Elieser Hernandez, Jesus Luzardo and Zach Thompson. Notable prospects such as Edward Cabrera, Sixto Sanchez, Max Meyer and Jake Eder (who recently had Tommy John surgery) provide the Fish wish a wealth of high-upside depth — depth that could also set the stage for some offseason trades as the club looks to bolster its core of young position players.

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Miami Marlins Sandy Alcantara

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Examining A Potential Sandy Alcantara Extension

By Anthony Franco | August 18, 2021 at 9:43pm CDT

Last month, reports emerged that the Marlins had exchanged offers on a potential contract extension with Sandy Alcantara’s representatives at CAA Baseball. Alcantara recently reiterated his desire to work out a long-term deal with the Fish, but Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald now report that Alcantara’s reps never presented him with specific terms. That seems to indicate the Marlins’ initial proposal wasn’t especially close to what Alcantara’s agents would consider a sufficient price.

It certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if the sides reengage in talks over the upcoming offseason given Alcantara’s seeming amenability to doing so. With that in mind, we’ll take a look at his situation in an attempt to gauge a potential mutually-agreeable price point.

The biggest difficulty in finding that number might be the lack of recent comparable deals. Over the past five years, only two starting pitchers with between three and four years of MLB service (as Alcantara will have this offseason) have signed extensions. In February 2017, the Cardinals and Carlos Martínez reached agreement on a five-year, $51MM guarantee with a pair of club options (valued at $17MM and $18MM, respectively) thereafter. That deal extended St. Louis’ window of control over Martínez an additional four seasons, but the Phillies only picked up an extra two seasons of control over Aaron Nola in their February 2019 extension. Nola was guaranteed $45MM for that briefer term, with his option year valued at $16MM.

Of those two hurlers, Martínez seems a more appropriate reference point for Alcantara.  Both pitchers are hard-throwing sinkerballers who specialize in keeping the ball on the ground while generating whiffs at a rate closer to league average. While it might be easy to forget given his struggles in recent years, Martínez was one of the best young arms in the majors at the time he signed his deal. Between 2014-16, the Cardinals righty worked to a 3.22 ERA over 464 1/3 innings with a 22.7% strikeout rate and a massive 54.7% grounder rate. Opposing hitters batted .246/.320/.353 against Martínez during that three-year stretch.

Since the start of the 2019 campaign, Alcantara has posted a 3.59 ERA over 390 2/3 frames. He’s punched out hitters at a 19.9% clip with a 48.2% groundball percentage and a .233/.307/.378 slash line allowed. Alcantara’s platform season (3.39 ERA, 21.7% strikeout rate, 53% groundball percentage) is similar to Martínez’s 2016 campaign, albeit a tad less impressive (3.04 ERA, 21.5% strikeout rate, 56.4% grounder rate). Martínez, who was also a year younger at the time than Alcantara is now, arguably had a slightly more impressive body of work but looks like a fairly straightforward reference point.

It’s at least worth examining Nola’s pre-extension performance, but it’s clear he’s a less obvious precedent. The Phillies righty had a 3.32 ERA over his three prior seasons — right in line with those of Martínez and Alcantara — but the comparison becomes less apt from there. Nola was a far better strikeout pitcher (26.4%) and had held opposing hitters to a stifling .228/.286/.356 line between 2016-18.

More importantly, Nola’s extension came on the heels of a platform season in which he posted a 2.37 ERA over 212 1/3 frames, earning a third-place finish in NL Cy Young Award voting. Nola’s performance over his first three-plus seasons quite clearly surpasses that of Alcantara — who has been very good but hasn’t had an elite, Cy Young-caliber campaign to this point.

Martínez’s deal paid him $4.5MM for the first of his would-be arbitration seasons, followed by successive $11.5MM salaries for the remaining four years of the guarantee (plus $500K buyouts on the aforementioned pair of options). It’s possible the Marlins would prefer a more gradual escalation of salaries in any Alcantara deal, but the $10.2MM average annual value of the guaranteed years in Martínez’s contract seems a worthwhile goal for Alcantara’s reps.

Since Alcantara’s a year older than Martínez was, he may be more reluctant to sign away a fourth potential free agent year. That said, he probably doesn’t have the track record to sway the Marlins to guarantee him over $10MM per season for the right to buy out only two free agent years — as Nola did with Philadelphia. Splitting the difference, a deal that buys out three free agent seasons seems like the best fit for both parties.

Because Alcantara already has three years of team control via arbitration remaining, buying out three free agent seasons would mean a deal that extends the Marlins’ window through 2027. Miami would likely require the final two seasons to be club option years in such a scenario, given that they’re guaranteeing Alcantara more money up front than they would if they proceeded year-by-year through arbitration.

In that case, we’d wind up with four guaranteed seasons. Using the $10.2MM AAV of Martínez’s deal, that comes out to a guarantee in the $41MM range between 2022-25 with a pair of club options (likely valued around $15-18MM, as those in Martínez’s and Nola’s deals were) covering the 2026 and 2027 campaigns. That’d set Alcantara’s earning potential around $70-75MM over six seasons while positioning him to reach free agency entering his age-32 season if Miami were to exercise the options.

This is, of course, an entirely theoretical exercise. Perhaps Alcantara’s more amenable to signing away additional free agent years for immediate financial certainty. On the other hand, the Martínez extension is almost five years old, so there’s an argument Alcantara’s reps should set their sights higher in an attempt to push the market forward.

It’s also possible the team’s efforts to broker an Alcantara extension would be contingent on him signing for less than that precedent might suggest, both in light of Miami’s generally low payrolls and their enviable stockpile of other controllable starting pitchers. That said, given the seeming probability the two sides will reengage at some point, it’s worth considering a speculative framework of a potential deal to keep one of the Marlins’ All-Star starters in South Florida for the long haul.

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Roster Notes: Marlins, Phillies, Royals

By TC Zencka | July 25, 2021 at 11:22am CDT

Let’s round up some roster moves made ahead of today’s ballgames…

  • The Marlins will reinstate Sandy Alcantara from the bereavement list today. To create a roster spot, Braxton Garrett will be optioned to Triple-A, per MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola (via Twitter). Garrett made the most of his spot start yesterday, tossing seven innings to get the win against the Padres. He gave up just two earned runs on four hits while walking one and notching 10 strikeouts.
  • The Phillies announced a number of roster moves today. Mickey Moniak has returned to the Major League roster in place of Travis Jankowski, who was placed on the COVID-related injured list. Chase Anderson, meanwhile, was reinstated from the COVID-related IL, and Cristopher Sanchez was optioned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
  • The Royals optioned Tyler Zuber to Triple-A today to make room for Daniel Lynch, who has been recalled to start today’s ballgame, per MLB.com’s Anne Rogers (via Twitter). Lynch is hoping for better results today after getting shelled in his first three career starts. He’s lasted just eight total innings while yielding 14 earned runs on 18 hits and five walks while recording seven strikeouts.
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Kansas City Royals Miami Marlins Notes Philadelphia Phillies Braxton Garrett Chase Anderson Cristopher Sanchez Daniel Lynch Mickey Moniak Sandy Alcantara Travis Jankowski Tyler Zuber

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Marlins Discussing Extension With Sandy Alcantara

By Mark Polishuk | July 25, 2021 at 7:35am CDT

The Marlins and right-hander Sandy Alcantara have exchanged offers about a possible contract extension, Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports.  The latest salvo appears to have come from Alcantara’s representatives at CAA Baseball, who “recently” presented a counter to an earlier Marlins offer.

Sherman reported the item within a larger piece suggesting the the Marlins should actually considering trading Alcantara if they are “overwhelmed” by an offer of young position players, to bolster the team’s overall balance considering that Miami already has several younger arms both on the MLB roster and in the farm system.  That said, the extension negotiations are likely not connected to Alcantara’s availability at the trade deadline, given that past reports have suggested the Marlins aren’t interested in moving any of their young, controllable starting pitchers — namely, the trio of Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, and Pablo Lopez.

Alcantara doesn’t reach arbitration eligibility until this winter, so he isn’t eligible for free agency under after the 2024 season.  There is therefore no real rush to hammer out a deal immediately, though an extension obviously offers some natural appeal to both sides.

An extension would give Alcantara the first major payday of his professional career.  Since he doesn’t turn 26 until September, an extension of even two seasons beyond Miami’s current control would allow him to test free agency heading into his age-31 season, when he could still be at the back edge of his prime.  For the Marlins, locking up a talented young pitcher and gaining cost certainty over his arb years could prove to be a bargain, and the team could count on Alcantara as a cornerstone piece as Miami looks to get back into contention.

There would also some symbolism attached to a deal, as the Marlins have yet to hand out a major extension since Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter took over the franchise in late 2017.  Miguel Rojas’ two-year, $10.25MM deal in September 2019 represents the only extension of any kind in the Sherman/Jeter era, and it’s fair to say that contract was more about rewarding a team leader than it was looking to the future, not that Rojas hasn’t more than lived up to his end of the deal (and could even be a candidate for another extension).  Perhaps even beyond last season’s surprise run to a berth in the expanded playoff field, locking up Alcantara or another young building block would announce to the baseball world that Sherman, Jeter, and general manager Kim Ng are done with rebuilding.

Since the start of the 2019 campaign, Alcantara has a 3.56 ERA, 19.6% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate, and 48.4% grounder rate over 359 innings.  That is the 17th-highest innings total of any pitcher in that span, and Alcantara’s only injury absence was missing most of August 2020 amidst the Marlins’ COVID outbreak.

This season has seen Alcantara make the changeup a much bigger part of his arsenal, so while he is throwing his sinker (his signature pitch) and his four-seam fastball less often, he has been able to increase his average fastball velocity up to 97.7mph.  Alcantara often approached the 100mph threshold as a prospect in the Cardinals’ farm system, though he has only slowly increased his velo over his three full seasons as a big league starter.

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Miami Marlins Sandy Alcantara

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Marlins Set Rotation For First Three Games Of NLDS

By TC Zencka | October 5, 2020 at 7:09pm CDT

The Marlins are preparing to kick off their NLDS against the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday. This series is non-conventional for a postseason set in that the best-of-five will play out over 5 consecutive days (and of course, because it’s being played in a playoff bubble at a neutral site during a pandemic).

No days off means there will be less of the starters-in-relief that has come to define many recent postseasons, including last year when Nationals’ manager Dave Martinez used each of Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Patrick Corbin out of the bullpen en route to winning the World Series. But there’s still potential for lots of in-series finagling of pitching staffs depending on how the first couple of games play out. For Atlanta, that could mean a bullpen day for game four. Max Fried, Ian Anderson, and Kyle Wright will take the hill for the first three games, and odds are they’d bring Fried back on short rest for a potential winner-take-all game five.

The potential to return on short rest for a deciding game five makes the selection of the game one starter all the more important . The Marlins will start Sandy Alcantara in the series opener, followed by Pablo López in game two and rookie phenom Sixto Sánchez in game three, tweets Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. The Marlins young trio have a real opportunity to add to their pandemic-truncated resumes. Alcantara and López won’t be arbitration eligible until after 2021, so there’s time to build a more comprehensive portfolio before entering the arbitration process. Still, every extra start does help considering the half a season or more lost due to the pandemic. The 25-year-old Alcantara, for example, was only able to make 7 regular season starts because of time spent on the COVID-19 injured list. He added one successful postseason start to that total already, and by starting game one of the NLDS, he could add another pair should the series go the distance.

Sánchez, with just 7 regular season starts to his name, isn’t scheduled to enter arbitration until after the 2023 season. He’ll be pushed back a day after 5 spotless innings against the Cubs in game two of the Wild Card series. Sánchez came out hot against the Cubs, routinely hitting triple-digits in the first couple of innings. His velocity dropped to the 94-to-97 mph range by the fifth inning. A game two start would have put him on track for a regular four days of rest. This way gets the 22-year-old an extra day off after a high-intensity outing at Wrigley Field.

López will take the hill for Wednesday’s game two instead. His last start came all the way back on September 24th. That gives him 12 days off between starts. That last outing also happened to come against these very Braves, one of three times he opposed Freddie Freeman and company during the regular season. The Marlins went 2-1 in those games, though the loss on September 9th was easily López’s roughest (and shortest) outing of the season. He managed just 1 2/3 innings while serving up 4 hits, 4 walks, and 7 earned runs. The 24-year-old went 5 scoreless, striking out 6 while yielding just 2 hits and 2 walks in his final start of the year at Atlanta.

In a vacuum, any of the three would be legitimate options to open the series, but manager Don Mattingly wasn’t troubled by his decision about who to start in game one. Per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, Mattingly said, “Obviously, Sandy’s easy. He’s been our guy, kind of our No. 1.”

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Atlanta Braves Miami Marlins Don Mattingly Pablo Lopez Sandy Alcantara Sixto Sanchez

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Marlins Activate Sandy Alcantara From IL

By Anthony Franco | August 30, 2020 at 10:36am CDT

The Marlins have activated right-hander Sandy Alcantara from the injured list, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (Twitter link). Fellow right-hander Jesús Tinoco has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Alcantara hit the IL for undisclosed reasons amidst Miami’s COVID-19 clubhouse outbreak. The hard-throwing sinkerballer, an All-Star in 2019, has been limited to just one start this season. He’ll start this afternoon’s game against Tampa Bay.

Tinoco, a 25-year-old reliever, has pitched five scoreless innings for Miami this season, albeit with three strikeouts and walks apiece. He has a career 4.17 ERA/7.40 FIP in 41 innings with the Rockies and Marlins over the past two seasons.

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Miami Marlins Transactions Jesus Tinoco Sandy Alcantara

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