Sandy Alcantara

Marlins Won’t Trade Sandy Alcántara, Open To Other Offers

By Maury Ahram | December 4, 2022 at 3:13pm CDT

Ahead of the Winter Meetings, the Marlins have made it clearly known that Sandy Alcantara will not be traded, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Heyman adds that the Fish will listen to offers on “almost anyone” else.

Fresh off a unanimous Cy Young award, Alcantara seemed likely to remain with Miami through the offseason, with today’s news reaffirming that notion. Nevertheless, the Marlins have previously displayed a willingness to trade from their rotation surplus, sending Zach Thompson to Pittsburgh in exchange for catcher Jacob Stallings. However, the organization has made it clear that the 27-year-old, who is signed through the 2026 season with a 2027 team option, is off the table.

With that being said, the Marlins still boast a plethora of talent that may be moved as the team looks to boost the offensive production.

Pablo Lopez will likely be the next name floated in trade scenarios. The righty pitched to a strong 3.75 ERA in 180 innings with solid strikeout (23.6%), walk (7.2%), and ground ball rates (46.7%) during the 2022 season. Career-wise, Lopez has pitched 510 innings of 3.94 ERA baseball with a 23.2% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, and 47.8% ground ball rate. Lopez, who turns 27 years old in March, is in his second year of arbitration eligibility and will be a free agent after the 2024 season. As of late July, the Marlins had yet to engage in extension discussions with Lopez’s management and were listening to trade offers for the hurler.

Jesus Luzardo is another potential Marlins’ trade candidate. Arriving from Oakland halfway through the 2021 season, Miami sent the hard-throwing lefty down to Triple-A to work on his mechanics before bringing him back to the major league roster as a starting pitcher. Despite missing over two months due to a left forearm strain, the 25-year-old was able to pitch 100 1/3 innings of 3.32 ERA baseball, with a hefty 30.0% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate, and 40.7% ground ball rate. As a super-two eligible player, Luzardo has four years of team control left before reaching free agency. However, despite his strong 2022 season, Luzardo stumbled to a 5.66 ERA in 154 1/3 innings across the 2020 and 2021 seasons, losing his role with the A’s staff before joining Miami.

Trevor Rogers is yet another talented and controllable Miami starter. A rookie All-Star in 2021, Rodgers experienced a sophomore slump with the Fish, pitching to a 5.47 ERA in 107 innings. Perhaps most troubling is that the lefty saw a sharp decline in his strikeout rate compared to his 2021 campaign (28.6% in 2021 compared to 22.2% in 2022). Nevertheless, the 25-year-old is only one year removed from a 2021 season in which he threw 133 innings of 2.64 ERA ball, finishing runner-up in Rookie of the Year voting to Reds’ second baseman Jonathan India. Rogers is only arbitration-eligible after the 2023 season, having missed this year’s super-two cutoff.

Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett are other starting pitchers that may find themselves the subject of trade talks as the offseason continues, but both of them have less than a year of service time and will likely factor into the Marlins’ future plans.

Latest On Potential Trade Scenarios For Marlins’ Rotation

By Steve Adams | November 18, 2022 at 10:20am CDT

It’s been widely reported over the past several months — really, dating back to last offseason — that the Marlins are open to dealing from their wealth of starting pitching depth in order to solidify other needs on the roster. That’s led to righty Pablo Lopez, who drew strong interest from the Yankees and the Dodgers at the trade deadline, being one of the most heavily speculated-upon trade candidates of the 2022-23 offseason. However, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes in his latest Marlins notebook column that the team may be more open to moving left-hander Trevor Rogers than Lopez.

The 25-year-old Rogers is coming off a down year — nowhere near the excellent season enjoyed by Lopez — but would appeal to other teams in a different capacity. While acquiring Lopez would likely require trading a bevy of prospects for a pitcher at his value’s peak, Rogers is more of a buy-low option on the heels of a down 2022 season. The former first-round pick was an All-Star and the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up to Jonathan India in 2021, when he tossed 133 innings of 2.64 ERA ball with a hefty 28.6% strikeout rate and a solid enough 8.4% walk rate.

The 2022 season was a brutal sophomore campaign for Rogers, however. Back spasms and a lat strain prompted a pair of IL stints for the 6’5″ lefty, and his results when healthy enough to take the mound didn’t even come close to that brilliant rookie output. In 107 innings, Rogers worked to a 5.47 ERA that was more than double his 2021 mark, and his strikeout rate fell by more than six percentage points (to 22.2%) while his walk rate crept up to 9.4%. After allowing just 0.41 homers per nine innings in 2021 (1.1% of his opponents took him deep), Rogers yielded an average of 1.26 homers per nine frames (3.1%).

In addition to the discrepancy between the pair’s 2022 seasons, Lopez is under team control for only two more years and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.6MM in his second year of arbitration. Rogers, meanwhile, is not yet arbitration-eligible and can be controlled for another four seasons. Both players would be highly appealing to the majority of clubs seeking rotation help this offseason, but a win-now club might feel better about plugging the veteran Lopez into its rotation, as he’s coming off a career-high 180 innings and has worked to a combined 3.52 ERA (3.48 FIP, 3.69 SIERA) over his past three seasons.

As was the case last offseason, it’s not a lock that the Marlins will trade any of their current big league rotation options. Many similar rumblings echoed throughout the 2021-22 offseason, but at the end of the day, the most notable arm the Fish had moved was right-hander Zach Thompson, who’d been their fifth starter. That the Marlins are open to moving Lopez and perhaps even more open to moving Rogers is notable, but that hardly means they plan to shop either pitcher and trade him for the best offer.

Rather, Miami appears likely to again set its sights on solidifying its center field vacancy this offseason. That didn’t transpire last year, and the team instead relied entirely on in-house options — most of whom were corner outfielders that were clearly miscast in center. Jesus Sanchez, former top prospect JJ Bleday and Bryan De La Cruz all logged significant time in center, but none of that trio drew particularly strong defensive grades for their efforts there.

Looking ahead to 2023, Miami will have to hope for better results from Avisail Garcia in one corner outfield spot and could again look to the trio of Sanchez, Bleday and De La Cruz as outfield components — though this time more likely in whichever corner is not occupied by Garcia. Jackson writes within his column that the bulk of Jorge Soler’s playing time will likely come at designated hitter next season, so he looks like an occasional outfield option, at best.

While center field is perhaps the most obvious area of need, Miami could also use upgrades at a variety of positions. Third base seems like another possible focus, and Miami lacks an obvious first baseman aside from Garrett Cooper, who’s been a candidate to be traded himself dating back to the deadline.

Of course, most fans salivate over the mere notion of 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara being made available in a trade, but with four years remaining on an affordable contract, there’s little to no hope of such a scenario actually transpiring. Alcantara is a veritable lock to be Miami’s Opening Day starter in 2023, and if Lopez isn’t traded, he’ll presumably slot into the second spot in the rotation. The Marlins will also lean on a resurgent Jesus Luzardo and hard-throwing righty Edward Cabrera — a longtime top prospect who broke out with a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts last year.

Rogers and fellow southpaw Braxton Garrett are the favorites to occupy the fifth spot in the rotation, particularly with top prospects Max Meyer (Tommy John), Jake Eder (Tommy John) and Sixto Sanchez (shoulder) all recovering from surgery. Right-hander Eury Perez reached Double-A at just 19 years of age in 2023 and could be another rotation option before long; he’s widely considered to be among the ten best prospects in all of baseball and, unsurprisingly, is considered squarely off the table (as is the case with Alcantara), per Jackson’s report.

Paul Goldschmidt Wins NL MVP

By Darragh McDonald and Anthony Franco | November 17, 2022 at 5:49pm CDT

Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has been named the National League’s Most Valuable Player, according to an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. He was followed in the voting by Manny Machado of the Padres and his teammate Nolan Arenado.

Though he’s come close many times, this is the first MVP award for the veteran, who just turned 35 in September. Though he’s older than the typical prime years of most athletes, he had arguably the best campaign of his career in 2022. He hit 35 home runs and produced a .317/.404/.578 batting line. That production was an incredible 77% better than the league average hitter, as evidenced by his 177 wRC+. When combined with his solid defense at first base, he was considered to be worth 7.1 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and 7.8 in the estimation of Baseball Reference.

Goldschmidt finished second among qualified NL batters in on-base percentage, trailing only Freddie Freeman. He led the league in slugging and tied for fifth in longballs. Along the way, he was named to his seventh All-Star game. Goldschmidt secured a fifth career Silver Slugger award and has appeared on MVP ballots each season going back to 2015. He’s under contract for two more years on the five-year extension he inked shortly after St. Louis acquired him from the Diamondbacks in a franchise-altering trade.

Machado secured a runner-up finish, the highest of his career to date. He’s now gotten into the top five in the voting on four separate occasions, including two of his four seasons in San Diego. He hit .298/.366/.531 with 32 homers and 37 doubles, appearing in 150 games. Machado finished 7th in the NL in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging. He earned his sixth career All-Star nod in the process.

Arenado picked up his 10th straight Gold Glove award this year with a typically excellent season at the hot corner. He also had arguably the best offensive year of his career, putting up a .293/.358/.533 line over 620 plate appearances. Only Goldschmidt and Mookie Betts topped him in slugging, while he finished ninth in on-base percentage. Arenado secured his seventh All-Star selection and fourth top-five MVP finish.

Goldschmidt picked up 22 of 30 first-place votes, while Machado secured seven votes. Arenado was the other player who got a first-place nod. Freeman finished in fourth overall and was penciled into six ballots in second place. Betts rounded out the top five, while Mets star Pete Alonso (who finished eighth) was the only other player to get a second-place vote. Austin Riley, J.T. Realmuto, Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara placed sixth through tenth, respectively.

Full voting breakdown available here.

Sandy Alcantara Wins National League Cy Young Award

By Darragh McDonald and Anthony Franco | November 16, 2022 at 5:49pm CDT

Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara has won the National League Cy Young award, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. It was a unanimous victory, with Alcantara receiving all 30 first place votes. He was followed in the voting by Max Fried of the Braves and Julio Urías of the Dodgers.

Alcantara has been the presumptive favorite for quite some time, and the unanimous voting serves as a particular testament to the caliber of season he put together. The right-hander easily lapped the field in innings, soaking up 228 2/3 frames that cleared second-place finisher Aaron Nola by 23 2/3. Alcantara and Nola were the only Senior Circuit pitchers to throw multiple complete games; Nola went the distance twice, while Alcantara did so six times. He also faced a league-leading 886 batters, with Nola’s 807 batters faced an extremely distant second.

That kind of throwback, workhorse mentality was part of what set Alcantara apart from the rest of the league, but he continued to perform brilliantly on a rate basis. Among NL starters with 100+ innings, he ranked fourth in ERA (2.28) and sixth in ground-ball percentage (53.4%). His 23.4% strikeout percentage was more good than elite, but he rarely issued free passes and kept the ball on the ground while consistently going deep into games.

Along the way, the 27-year-old earned the second All-Star nod of his career. Alcantara had posted an ERA between 3.00 and 4.00 in each of his first four seasons with the Fish to emerge as a top-of-the-rotation caliber arm. Miami inked him to a $56MM extension last offseason, a deal that extended their window of control through 2027. That seemed a strong move for general manager Kim Ng and her staff at the time, and it now stands as an absolute bargain with Alcantara cementing himself upon the game’s top handful of pitchers.

It’s the first Cy Young nod for the native of the Dominican Republic, who’d never previously appeared on an awards ballot. Fried and Urías each picked up some support for the second time. The Atlanta southpaw finished fifth in Cy Young balloting in 2020, while the L.A. hurler placed seventh last year. Both earned a top-three placement for the first time this year, with sub-2.50 ERA showings. Fried twirled 185 1/3 innings of 2.48 ball, while Urías led qualified starters with a 2.16 ERA.

Fried picked up 10 second-place votes, and Urías was the runner-up on seven ballots. Nola, Zac Gallen, Carlos Rodón, Corbin Burnes and Edwin Díaz were the other players to receive at least one second-place vote. Nola and Gallen placed fourth and fifth, respectively. Rodón, Burnes, Díaz, Yu Darvish, Kyle Wright, Logan Webb and Ryan Helsley were the other players to appear on a ballot.

Full voting breakdown available here.

NL East Notes: Alcantara, Marte, Strider

By Mark Polishuk | October 1, 2022 at 6:15pm CDT

Sandy Alcantara’s season is officially over, as Marlins manager Don Mattingly told reporters (including the Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson) today that the star right-hander won’t be pitching in the Marlins’ season finale on Wednesday. Alcantara pitched yesterday and would’ve been lined up to make his 33rd start in Wednesday’s game against the Braves, but Miami will instead close the book on what might end up as a Cy Young Award-winning campaign for the 27-year-old righty.

Over a league-high 228 2/3 innings, Alcantara has looked like an old-school workhorse in a sport increasingly dominated by pitch counts and bullpen usage. Alcantara has a 2.28 ERA, 53.6% grounder rate, and 5.6% walk rate to go along with that big workload, and he earned his second All-Star nod. While Miami is reportedly open to trading from its pitching depth this winter, Alcantara is known be off-limits, as his five-year, $56MM extension signed last November has made him a Marlins cornerstone.

Marlins Open To Trade Offers On Pablo Lopez, Looking To Upgrade Offense

By Anthony Franco | July 26, 2022 at 8:30pm CDT

The Marlins have stumbled out of the All-Star Break, dropping three of their first five contests against below-.500 teams in the Rangers, Pirates and Reds. Paired with a three-game sweep at the hands of the division-rival Phillies to close out the season’s unofficial first half, Miami has dropped six of eight before tonight’s contest with Cincinnati.

Sitting 45-51 and 5 1/2 games out of the National League’s final Wild Card spot, the Marlins look increasingly unlikely to compete for a postseason berth. That’s particularly true with the news that the club’s best position player, Jazz Chisholm Jr., won’t return until September at the earliest due to a stress fracture in his back. In the face of those mounting odds, general manager Kim Ng and her staff are apparently willing to consider dealing notable players from the major league roster.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted this afternoon that the Fish are willing to listen to offers on everyone other than ace Sandy Alcantara. It’s hard to imagine Miami trading Chisholm since he’s controllable through 2026 and currently on the injured list, but it seems the bulk of the team could be available. Aside from Alcantara and Chisholm, perhaps no one else on the roster would draw more interest than starter Pablo López. While Miami hasn’t previously shown much appetite for dealing López, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report that the Marlins are now willing to hear offers on the 26-year-old righty. According to Jackson and Mish, the Fish aren’t actively shopping López, but they’re “no longer dismissing calls” from interested teams.

Assuming Ng and her staff are willing to seriously consider offers on López, he’d be one of the top options available for rotation-needy clubs. After missing most of the second half of last season due to a shoulder injury, he’s stayed healthy this year to take 20 starts. López owns a 3.03 ERA with an above-average 25.5% strikeout rate, a stingy 7.6% walk percentage and a solid 47.4% ground-ball rate. It’s the continuation of a few excellent years for the Venezuelan-born hurler, who has posted a sub-4.00 ERA with better than average strikeout and walk rates in each of the past three seasons.

López is only in his first season of arbitration-eligibility. He’s making an affordable $2.45MM salary, around $974K of which is still to be paid before the end of the season. That’s affordable enough for every club, and López comes with an additional two seasons of control before he can hit free agency after the 2024 campaign. He’s both cheaper and under a longer window of control than any of Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle or Frankie Montas — the three hurlers who have generally been viewed as the top rotation trade candidates on the market.

There’s no need for Ng and her front office to force a deal given that extended window of club control, but they could view this as an opportunity to move him at the peak of his trade value. The Herald writes that the Marlins have not engaged López’s representatives at Excel Sports Management about a possible extension. Miami also has a fair bit of rotation depth and is looking for opportunities to invigorate an offense that carried a meager .238/.302/.376 line into play tonight.

Jackson and Mish write that the Marlins would like to add a left-handed power hitter for the 2023 lineup. Whether that’d come directly in a López deal is unclear — it’s rare for contenders to trade off their big league roster to address another area — but an openness to dealing away one of their top arms while searching for ways to add a controllable hitter suggests Ng and her staff aren’t approaching the deadline as a strict “buyer” or “seller.” Rather, it seems they’ll be one of a handful of teams — the Red Sox, Rangers, Angels and Orioles could be others — approaching the deadline more flexibly, recognizing that competing in 2022 is a longshot while still searching for ways to preemptively add to next year’s roster.

Of course, the rotation depth that could make the Marlins more amenable to parting with López has also been hit hard by injuries. Former top prospect Sixto Sánchez hasn’t thrown a major league pitch in two years. Jesús Luzardo and Edward Cabrera have been on the injured list for months, and rookie Max Meyer joined them over the weekend after leaving the second start of his MLB career with elbow discomfort.

In a worrisome development, Jackson and Mish report that Tommy John surgery could be on the table for Meyer. The team is still awaiting the results of a recent MRI before determining whether surgery will be required, but a UCL reconstruction would likely cost him all of the 2023 season. Miami is certainly hoping the electric 23-year-old will be able to avoid that fate; the club figures to provide an update on the righty’s status in the coming days.

Whether Meyer eventually goes under the knife or not, the injury serves as a reminder that even teams with a seeming surplus of starting pitching can see that depth thinned out rather quickly. Indeed, Miami’s rotation has largely been propelled by excellent seasons from Alcantara and López. 2021 breakout southpaw Trevor Rogers has had a disappointing follow-up campaign, and the back of the rotation has been hit by the aforementioned injuries along with a woeful showing from Elieser Hernández, who found himself demoted to the bullpen.

If Miami follows through on dealing some veterans, López wouldn’t be the only player on the roster to attract interest. MLBTR examined a few of the club’s other possible trade candidates last week. First baseman/designated hitter Garrett Cooper has a season and a half of remaining control and is hitting .279/.347/.426 on the year. He landed on the 10-day injured list due to a right wrist contusion this afternoon, but he indicated he expects to return when first eligible on August 3 (link via Christina De Nicola of MLB.com). He won’t play again before next Tuesday’s trade deadline, but injured players are able to be dealt, and it stands to reason other clubs will look past the injury if Cooper’s likely to return next week.

Brian Anderson and Jon Berti each looked like potential trade candidates, but they’re on the IL themselves. Anderson suffered a shoulder injury over the weekend, while Berti has yet to begin a rehab assignment after hurting his groin a little less than two weeks ago. They seem less likely than Cooper to be dealt given their longer-term recovery timelines.

Miami also has a handful of veteran relievers who could change hands. Right-hander Anthony Bass is controllable next season via $3MM club option, but he should draw interest with a 1.51 ERA through 41 2/3 innings on the year. Southpaws Steven Okert and Tanner Scott have missed plenty of bats and are controllable for multiple seasons beyond 2022, although each has struggled with his control. Richard Bleier is a more stable ground-ball specialist from the left side, while Dylan Floro is a righty with a broadly similar profile as Bleier.

Latest On Marlins’ Rotation

By Steve Adams | March 7, 2022 at 3:51pm CDT

It’s been clear throughout the offseason that the Marlins are willing to deal from a deep stockpile of starting pitching that is perhaps unrivaled in terms of quantity. The Fish already moved righty Zach Thompson to the Pirates in the trade that netted them catcher Jacob Stallings, and they’re expected to continue pursuing offensive help after the lockout — be it on the trade market or in free agency. With an enviable stockpile of arms, there’s been plenty of speculation as to who might be on the move, and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald lists righty Elieser Hernandez as one possibility. Perhaps even more notably, Jackson adds that Miami isn’t particularly interested in moving any of its top three starters: Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers and Pablo Lopez.

On Alcantara and Rogers, that’s wholly unsurprising. Miami just signed Alcantara to a five-year, $56MM extension shortly before the lockout, and the possibility of an Alcantara trade evaporated the moment the ink on that deal dried. Rogers, meanwhile, might’ve had a legitimate shot at National League Rookie of the Year had he not stepped away from baseball for a harrowing month of August, during which his mother was placed on a ventilator after contracting Covid-19 and both of his grandfathers passed away. Rogers, now 24, still made the All-Star team and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting after tossing 133 innings of 2.64 ERA ball.

As for Lopez, he seems more like a potential on-paper trade candidate given that he’s now into his arbitration years and the Marlins have so many up-and-coming arms who could potentially offset his loss. He’s more established than the arms behind him but seemingly a tier below Alcantara and Rogers; that ostensibly would make him valuable enough to help fetch a legitimate bat for the lineup but not necessarily irreplaceable to the extent of the organization’s top two rotation members.

That said, Lopez also missed more than two months with a strained rotator cuff, and the Marlins can hardly be blamed if they’re not open to selling low on the talented 26-year-old. Over his past 160 innings, Lopez has notched a 3.26 ERA with a 26.4% strikeout rate, a 6.7% walk rate and a 49% grounder rate — all very strong marks.

As for Hernandez, he’s also 26-year-old righty who, like Lopez, is now into his arbitration years and controlled another three seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn just $1.4MM this coming season, making him overwhelmingly affordable for any team in need of starting pitching. Of course, Hernandez’s own injury troubles, which have suppressed his innings totals, are the reason that projected price tag is so low. Over the past two seasons, he’s missed time with a lat strain, a quad strain and biceps inflammation.

Selected out of the Astros’ organization in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft, Hernandez was clobbered in his first two seasons of big league action before beginning to find success in 2020. The aforementioned injuries have limited him to just 77 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, but he’s logged a tidy 3.84 ERA in that time while posting a sharp 26.3% strikeout rate and an outstanding 5.7% walk rate.

The problem for Hernandez, in addition to his difficulty staying on the field, has been a penchant for serving up the long ball. Hernandez has surrendered an average of 2.09 homers per nine frames — this in spite of the Marlins’ pitcher-friendly home setting. He averages just 91.2 mph on a four-seam fastball that opponents bashed at a .350/.394/.690 pace this past season. It’s a brutal line for plate appearances that culminate with Hernandez’s primary offering being thrown, but working in Hernandez’s favor is that his other two offerings have absolutely flummoxed opposing batters. In 2021, opponents batted .188/.241/.400 with a 30.6% strikeout rate in plate appearances that ended with Hernandez’s slider. They posted an even worse .167/.211/.333 slash against his changeup, going down in 18.2% of those plate appearances.

A team that believes itself capable of optimizing Hernandez’s fastball could feel there’s untapped potential. Given his heater’s lack of velocity and substandard spin rate, Hernandez will probably always be somewhat homer-prone, but even tamping that down to merely higher-than-average levels (as opposed to nearly the highest in the league) could go a long way toward a Hernandez breakout. Even if he simply continues on as a homer-prone fourth starter with injury concerns, his price tag in arbitration is so low that he’d provide surplus value in that capacity.

Looking past Hernandez, there are still other arms to at least consider. The Marlins don’t seem likely to sell low on Sixto Sanchez when his return from shoulder surgery is still unsettled, but he’s just one of many rotation candidates they have. Jesus Luzardo struggled immensely both in Oakland and Miami last year. Edward Cabrera is a touted top prospect himself but battled command issues in last year’s brief MLB debut. Further down the depth chart are fifth starter candidates like Nick Neidert, Braxton Garrett and Cody Poteet. Top prospects like Max Meyer, Jake Eder (recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Eury Perez would presumably only be in play if the Marlins were poised to land a major name on the trade market.

Just how the Marlins will look to fortify their roster after the lockout remains up in the air. Miami is known to be on the hunt for an additional bat to deepen the lineup — ideally one that can play in the outfield. A center fielder would be most prudent, but the club has previously indicated a willingness to play offseason signee Avisail Garcia in center if a prominent corner slugger can be acquired via trade or signed. If the former route is the path they choose to tread, Hernandez would be a sensible part of a package, but there are so many arms in the system that it’s easy to draw up various permutations of deals.

Marlins Sign Sandy Alcantara To Contract Extension

By Steve Adams | November 30, 2021 at 4:57pm CDT

After months of back-and-forth, the Marlins and right-hander Sandy Alcantara have agreed upon a long-term deal. The team announced Tuesday they’ve signed the CAA Sports client to a five-year contract extension that also contains a club option covering the 2027 season. Alcantara will reportedly be guaranteed $56MM, including a $2MM buyout on the 2027 option valued at $21MM. He receives a $1.5MM signing bonus as part of the deal.

Alcantara, 26, has been in extension talks at least dating back to July, when reports of negotiations first surfaced. While the Marlins’ first overtures were said to be low enough that Alcantara’s camp considered them a nonstarter, a $55MM+ guarantee would be a record extension for a pitcher with between three and four years of Major League service time, topping the previous highwater mark set by Carlos Martinez in Feb. 2017 (five years, $51MM).

Acquired from the Cardinals alongside Zac Gallen in the 2017 trade that sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis, Alcantara has steadily improved over the course of his four seasons in Miami. He’s always been a hard-throwing sinker specialist, but his strikeout and walk rates early in his career were pedestrian, to say the least. Alcantara racked up 197 innings with the Fish in 2019, but he looked more like a potential innings-eater than a star at that point. Fast forward to 2021, however, and Alcantara looks more like a building block than that stable No. 4 starter he was in ’19.

This past season, Alcantara finished fourth in MLB with 205 2/3 innings thrown, averaged 98.1 mph on his heater and posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (24.0%), walk rate (6.0%) and ground-ball rate (55.3%). All three are vastly better than the league average, so it’s little surprise that Alcantara’s 3.19 ERA was largely supported by fielding-independent marks. This year’s 13.3% swinging-strike rate was easily a career-high, and Alcantara’s gaudy 36.7% opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone ranked third among qualified starters. Alcantara also thrives when it comes to inducing weak contact and ranks above the league average in Statcast’s “expected” ERA, batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA.

Alcantara had been set for his first trip through the arbitration process this winter and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.5MM. He’d have been arb-eligible twice more, securing a pair of additional raises in the process. The proposed deal would buy out two arbitration seasons and, depending on how bullishly one cares to project Alcantara’s would-be raises in years two and three of arbitration, places a value of around $14-15MM per season on those two free-agent campaigns. That, of course, still represents a bargain for Alcantara if he can replicate his 2021 breakout, but that type of tradeoff is commonplace for players signing extensions well before they’d otherwise reach the open market.

The $11MM annual value — a figure which, as with many extensions, is skewed by the arbitration seasons included in the deal — is significant for a typically low-payroll Marlins club. However, Miami doesn’t have a single guaranteed contract on the books after the 2023 season, and second-year GM Kim Ng has been vocal in her desire to spend more money this offseason. Much of that is expected to come via free agency, but locking up one of their current stars to keep him in the fold beyond his previously allotted team control certainly speaks to that increased financial wherewithal as well.

Miami has reportedly considered trading from its impressive collection of young starting pitchers as the organization eyes long-term options both in the outfield and behind the plate. That said, Alcantara would always have been one of the toughest Marlins starters to obtain — if not the toughest — and a five-year extension would further diminish the already slim chances of him being dealt. The Fish could still dangle any combination of Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez and Jesus Luzardo, while near-MLB prospects like Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera (among many others) would surely carry very strong trade value. Injured youngsters like Sixto Sanchez (shoulder capsule surgery) and Jake Eder (Tommy John surgery) are appealing in their own right — health concerns notwithstanding.

With such a bounty of young arms, the Marlins obviously could have weathered the hit of trading Alcantara, but today’s extension instead likely portends a long-term rotation headed by Alcantara and 2021 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up Trevor Rogers. Who’ll fill the spots behind that dynamic pairing is dependent on how the offseason trade market unfolds, but the Fish are well-positioned to continue making strides thanks largely to that near-unparalleled collection of pitching talent.

Craig Mish of SportsGrid first reported the Marlins and Alcantara were both nearing agreement and had agreed upon on a five-year extension worth more than $56MM. Mish and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reported the presence of a sixth-year club option valued at $21MM, as well as the $1.5MM signing bonus.

Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

Marlins Considering Trading From Rotation Surplus

By Anthony Franco | November 8, 2021 at 8:36pm CDT

The Marlins have one of the league’s most pitching-heavy rosters, with an established group of young starters and some more well-regarded prospects nearing big league readiness. With the team expected to look for upgrades both behind the plate and in the outfield this winter, the Fish have seemed speculative candidates to make one of their controllable arms available to bolster other areas on the roster.

Miami’s at least debating that possibility, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports (on Twitter) the team is considering whether to trade one of their arbitration-eligible hurlers this offseason. Sandy Alcantara, Pablo López and Elieser Hernández are each controllable through 2024 via arbitration, and Morosi suggests the Marlins could be open to moving someone from that group.

Alcantara would seemingly have the greatest appeal on the trade market, but it’s also possible Miami could make him off limits. There’s reportedly been optimism about their chances of working out an extension with the All-Star hurler, who was one of just four pitchers to eclipse 200 innings this past season. Alcantara, who is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $4.5MM arbitration salary, worked to a stellar 3.19 ERA despite that heavy workload, inducing grounders on over half the balls in play against him.

López has been one of the league’s steadier, more underrated hurlers over the past couple seasons. Going back to the start of 2020, the right-hander has a 3.26 ERA/3.21 FIP across 160 innings. Only projected for a $2.5MM salary, López’s resume should pique the interest of plenty of pitching-needy clubs. But his status could be complicated a rotator cuff strain in his throwing shoulder that cost him essentially the entire second half of 2021. López landed on the shelf in mid-July and didn’t return until the final day of the season, when he tossed 1 2/3 innings in a deliberately brief start.

Hernández is coming off an injury-impacted season of his own. The righty missed two months early in the year with biceps inflammation, then suffered a quad strain in his first start back that cost him another two months. He made eleven starts altogether, posting a 4.18 ERA with quality strikeout and walk numbers but an extremely high home run rate. He’s projected for a $1.4MM salary.

With all three pitchers likely to have bargain salaries in 2022, general manager Kim Ng and her staff needn’t feel any immediate financial pressure to move Alcantara, López or Hernández this winter. But it’s little surprise the Marlins are at least considering that course of action, since trading one of those starters looks to be the most straightforward way to acquire controllable position player talent. Even if Miami moved one of the aforementioned trio, they’d still have Trevor Rogers, Sixto Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett and Zach Thompson among their big league ready rotation options, with top prospect Max Meyer on the doorstep as well after a dominant season in Double-A.

Marlins Notes: Free Agency, Castellanos, Alcantara

By Anthony Franco | October 2, 2021 at 9:54pm CDT

9:54PM: Marlins CEO Derek Jeter backed up Ng’s comments, telling Bally Sports Florida that “For the first time really since we’ve been here as an ownership group, I expect to be pretty active” in the offseason. Jeter also said the focus will be on adding hitting to augment “one of the top pitching staffs in baseball.”

7:35AM: The Marlins are wrapping up their 11th losing season in the past 12 years, with last year’s shortened-season playoff berth looking like an aberration. Miami’s young but promising pitching staff actually put together an above-average campaign, but they were let down by a lack of run support. The Marlins’ 615 runs scored is the third-lowest tally in the majors, with the team’s .241/.308/.387 slash line (excluding pitchers) checking in sixth from the bottom.

Bolstering the lineup will be an obvious priority for the club this offseason, and general manager Kim Ng acknowledged as much Friday afternoon in an appearance on the MLB Network. Most notably, Ng suggested ownership is prepared to support at least some measure of activity in free agency. “We are going to have some money to spend. … We feel that we are primed to do very well with the pitching set up as it is and with us being able to spend some money on bats this offseason.”

Miami typically runs one of the lowest payrolls in the league, but their ledger is fairly open. Miguel Rojas’ $5.5MM option recently vested, and Anthony Bass’ $3MM salary is the only other guaranteed deal on the books. (Miami also owes the Yankees $3MM as part of the Giancarlo Stanton trade). The Fish will have one of the game’s more significant arbitration classes, with Jesús Aguilar, Brian Anderson, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo López and Elieser Hernández among those in line for raises. Even then, Miami should have a bit of spending capacity before closing in on this year’s estimated $63MM payroll (via Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez).

Ng was unsurprisingly vague about precisely how much money the front office will have to play with, but they’re seemingly at least considering one of the more notable players likely to be on the market. On his Swings and Mishes podcast, Craig Mish of the Miami Herald suggested the Marlins could be in the market for South Florida native Nick Castellanos, who is expected to opt out of the remaining two years and $32MM on his current deal with the Reds.

On the surface, the Marlins certainly seem a long shot to wind up landing Castellanos, as Mish acknowledges. The 29-year-old placed tenth on MLBTR’s most recent free agent power rankings, with a four or five-year deal worth $20MM+ annually seemingly within the realm of possibility coming off a season in which he’s hitting .308/.362/.570 with 33 home runs. For a Miami team that balked at meeting Starling Marte’s reported four-year, $50MM asking price this summer, an earnest Castellanos pursuit would require a significant change in direction, although it’s at least theoretically possible ownership and the front office would be willing to make an exception for one of the younger potential free agents on the market.

While a Castellanos deal would register as a major surprise, the team agreeing to an extension with Alcantara seems entirely plausible. There’s reportedly growing optimism the two sides can get a long-term deal done this winter, and Mish adds that such talks could result in a more team-friendly arrangement than one might expect. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently broke down the factors that could go into an Alcantara extension, although Mish hears the first-time All-Star might be willing to settle for a bit less than his maximum earning power in order to lock in some financial security before the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement on December 1.

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