Neither a gargantuan investment in Manny Machado nor the marvelous rookie introduction of Fernando Tatis Jr. helped the Padres escape from the majors’ basement this season. With a 70-92 mark in 2019, the club’s now mired in a 13-year playoff drought and stuck on nine seasons without at least a .500 finish. Executive chairman Ron Fowler has seen just about enough. As Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes, Fowler apologized to Padres fans Monday for an “embarrassing” season, particularly a 25-47 second-half unraveling that undid the promising 45-45 mark San Diego mustered before the All-Star break.
Fowler also assured fans that “heads will roll, beginning with mine” if the Padres don’t make legitimate progress in 2020. Manager Andy Green already paid the price for this year’s failings, as the club ousted him Sept. 21 and is now seeking someone it believes will be more capable of orchestrating a much-needed 180.
With the Padres having scapegoated the manager for their dismal 2019 showing, GM A.J. Preller could become a realistic candidate to lose his job sometime next year if the tide doesn’t start turning. Preller has helped amass an impressive collection of young talent since his hiring in August 2014, but even when he made a serious effort to build a winner early in his tenure, the roster fell well shy of expectations.
Considering Preller has led the franchise on an extensive rebuild in recent seasons, it’s more understandable that the Padres have continued to wallowed at the bottom of the standings. However, the organization’s attempts to leave its rebuild behind have also come up short so far, thanks in part to multiple questionable signings. The eight-year, $144MM contract the Padres handed Eric Hosmer prior to 2018 has been a disaster. The six-year, $83MM extension the team gave Wil Myers entering 2017 hasn’t worked out much better. And even Machado, whom the Padres inked to a 10-year, $300MM contract in free agency last offseason, wasn’t his typically spectacular self in 2019.
Fowler hasn’t voiced any dissatisfaction in regards to Machado (at least not publicly), whereas the other two big-money Padres have drawn his ire. He “addressed his disappointment” in Hosmer’s defense and Myers’ offense, per Acee, who reports it’s “likely” the Padres would eat half of the money left on the latter’s contract in order to trade him. Myers, who’s cognizant a move could occur, is still owed $60MM for the next three years on his heavily backloaded deal. It remains to be seen whether another franchise would want the 28-year-old for even half of his remaining money, though, as Myers’ offense has only hovered around league average over the past few seasons. Committing $30MM to a corner outfielder/first baseman who’s coming off one of his worst seasons at the plate doesn’t seem like an especially appealing proposition.
While shopping Myers will be on the Padres’ agenda this offseason, they may also be in for an aggressive winter of additions if we’re to take Fowler’s frustration at face value. The Padres’ offense finished this year near the bottom of the majors in runs (27th), wRC+ (24th) and position player fWAR (19th), all of which shows there’s vast room for improvement there. San Diego’s pitching staff was similarly subpar, placing 18th in team ERA and 23rd in FIP, and also figures to be a key area of focus in the coming months.
For now, Fowler told Acee he’s on the heels of his “worst 2½ months of ownership” – a span in which, “There were some days, quite honestly, I didn’t want to get out of bed.”
Way too much talk/hype for way too long re this organization’s talent and its inevitable success. With the passage of time the pressure only mounts to produce a winner.
Padres have had more post season success than the expos/nats and the same goes for the brewers. How about them apples. Those are two are worst than the padres in the playoffs.
That is true, but both are in this season (and have been good for awhile in the Nats case) and the Pads haven’t been in the postseason since W was president, so it’s not really all the relevant to the conversation. Plus none of those teams have much to write home about when it comes to postseason success. Just because you’re better in the playoffs than the Nats or Brewers isn’t saying much.
I don’t really think success from decades ago is very relevant. The Brewers and Nata have consistently put playoffs teams on the field in the past decade. The Padres haven’t sniffed the playoffs since 2006. They’ve done a whole lot of nothing for a long time now. Next year should be the year things change. If they don’t Preller is probably as good as gone.
Especially with Arizona miraculously getting itself out of what looked like a fairly long rebuild after losing Pollock, Corbin, and Goldy.
Thinking Preller might try to trade for Syndergaard this offseason, knowing full well that if the Padres don’t get at least a Wild Card spot in the next 2 seasons he’ll be gone anyway so he won’t have to deal with a post-Syndergaard team.
My biggest problem with a potential Syndergaard trade is that, given the position they are in, trading Syndergaard should be the exact opposite of what the Mets do and yet you keep hearing about it anyway. That along with the fact that BVW is his former agent just makes me feel like there’s something he isn’t telling the other GM’s.
We barely lost out in 2010 I think
Mets have no business trading Syndergaard with the other moves they’ve made. They should be making a hard run at wheeler and trying to win at all costs.
I do think Preller is going to be making a lot of win now moves. Because I’m sure he feels like he has to save his job. Which is probably accurate on his part. Makes it a little bit scary for the organization if they really aren’t ready to win this year; that could set them back even further.
But you can’t collect prospects forever. The owner is clearly ready to see results so there’s going to have to be a big splash.
Can’t imagine anyone taking Myers without the Padres taking a ton of bad salary back with him. With a new guy calling the shots in Boston I wonder if there is any potential for something like an Eovaldi for Myers swap of some sort. Kind of outside the box but Boston needs a 1B and SDP could use Eovaldi in some capacity. Just trying to get creative here because I really don’t know what you do with Myers.
Myers for eovaldi wouldn’t be bad, but still hard seeing them trade him
Myers is making more than Eovaldi (same duration tho). The Red Sox are trying to get under the luxury tax line so I don’t see how that works for them.
Only thing the Padres really need at this point is starting pitchers that can go at least 6 innings a start and have ERA’s under 4 and to figure out who stays and who goes in the outfield.
I was thinking along the lines of them getting some sort of prospect back from San Diego as well. The difference is only about 10 MM and the Red Sox are really only concerned w the luxury tax considerations. Eo’s Contract is 4/67 and Myers is 6/83. Myers lux hit is lower.
That seems like the easiest swap to me. The Sox aren’t going to be able to move any significant money off Eovaldi’s deal. This would get them to a lower lux tax point and give them a 1B to replace Moreland. Obviously I don’t expect this deal to come to fruition but it’s an idea.
Ooof! Good catch. I forgot that luxury tax hit was based on AAV.
You might actually be on to something here. But Myers was worth about 1 win more during a down season so I doubt Boston would be getting a prospect back in the trade. If anything they might throw in a prospect in order to get the Padres to eat a bit of Myers’ contract along with taking Eovaldi.
One thing I am not clear on. If another team is paying down part of a contract on your books, does the part they are paying count towards the luxury tax?
Yes
Hosmer for Price saves the Sox $14m on AAV. And also gives a replacement for Moreland.
All else equal I’d rather take a chance on a starter like Eovaldi versus a 1B that didn’t even bat the league average. FG’s has Myers at .6 fWAR. That’s completely useless for a full time player. I think Boston would be an ideal spot for him to hit though and I think Eovaldi would be better served out in SD.
Even with the checkered injury history I would imagine he has more trade value than a 1B. We’ve seen a huge decline in the value of 1B types.
Eovaldi had some more encouraging underlying numbers as well. While not very good his WOBA of .372 was well higher than his xWOBA of .322. He still throws hard and plenty of teams were intrigued last offseason. I think the Pads end up chipping in something small. (40 man crunch guy) to facilitate the move. I really don’t see a market for Myers anywhere. Rebuilding teams don’t need the additional salary and most contending teams aren’t going to buy a 1B who hit like that. Statcast doesn’t look any more favorably on Myers either.
If you look at what teams like the M’s did this year to move defensively limited corner guys it doesn’t give me much hope for what the value is on a guy like Myers.
fWAR has Eovaldi below replacement level. He’s also a 2x Tommy John patient so I don’t buy him as a starter.
Myers also seems to be a serviceable defender in LF. Wherever they do play him, what they need to do is stick to one position.
Neither one had a good year. Statcast paints Eovaldi as a bit unlucky though. He also pitched in the ALE in largely tough ballparks. Corner players value is absolutely in the toilet. I don’t care if it’s 1B or LF teams just don’t pay for defensively limited guys in those slots. Productive ones have not fetched much of anything in trades. Let alone a non productive one who is owed 61 MM.
And I’m really not buying Myers the OF. It appears the Padres aren’t either. He’s not blocking anyone until Trammell’s ready ( Cordero isn’t very good and Naylor is also a 1B) and they don’t seem to have any interest in keeping him out there.
Teams were intrigued w Eovaldi enough to push his value up to 67 million last season. This could be close enough to do a straight swap. I obviously can’t be certain. But I think the Sox could find a taker a hell of a lot easier.
I could imagine probably 15 teams that would roll the dice on Eovaldi for a heavily discounted price. Can’t imagine anymore than a handful on Myers even if the Pads eat the salary down significantly.
The Padres absolutely buy Myers as a left-fielder and he’s blocking a ton of guys. They’d leave him alone if they didn’t have Naylor, Renfroe, Martini, etc to find PT for. I agree that Naylor should be a 1st baseman but with the Padres being in the NL and having Eric Hosmer you can forget about that unless (until) he is traded.
Signing Eric Hosmer really made things tough for them. And it’s not like people weren’t pointing this out when they were in talks to sign him two years ago.
I can’t imagine Naylor hitting enough to make up for the bad defense in LF. The orioles did with Mancini for a couple years so I guess they can try.
From Fowler’s comments they clearly want this guy gone. I don’t see a market. I know a lot of people (myself included) were surprised to see a guy like Jean Segura go for so little because the demand wasn’t there. I see next to no demand for Myers and that’s your problem.
Also if you’re concerned about guys like Nick Martini, a 29 year old minor league journeyman getting PT over Myers that says a whole lot about Myers. Renfroe has RF to himself if he hits enough. With Reyes gone I don’t really see a gigantic logjam there til Trammel is ready.
It’s not I that is concerned with Nick Martini. It’s the front office. They wanted to see what they had in him. Ditto Josh Naylor. They had four corner outfielders and only 2 spots so they had to juggle playing time, even playing Myers in CF a couple times. I can assure you that if two of the other guys were gone he’d play nowhere but left field.
The Sox are trying to cut payroll. Most likely Chavis moves to 1B and they sign a cheap defensive 2B.
Not in Boston this year, it’s about subtracting salary, not adding it, and They will use first base as a cheap position
Myers does not add salary for luxury tax if you trade Eovaldi. He takes it away.
Get real Boston would eat Myers alive he can barely function here in San Diego
What would the Pads offer the Mets for Syndergaard? I think many people have been oversold on their underwhelming rookies/farm system. Unless they are prepared to give up Paddack and a few others, I doubt the Mets would be interested in that trade.
Why would they give up Paddack, who was BETTER than Syndergaard in 2019 and has 3 more years of control than Thor does?
And only guys from their farm who have really been “underwhelming” relative to expectations are Javy Guerra, Adrian Morejon and Michel Baez.
@Marcus was already taken
“We barely lost out in 2010 I think.”
This is true, with 90 wins no less. That was more wins than either of the Padre NL West division winners in ’05 (82) and ’06 (88).
The Pads also lost out at the end of the season in ’07 with 89 wins, with the famous “Matt Holliday never touched home plate” loss to the Rockies in game 163.
Not that the last decade is any less a lost decade at this point.
Padres would probably offer players like Margot, Luchessi and a few prospects for Thor.
The Mets could use a decent center fielder and Luchessi could take Syndegaard’s place in the rotation,. In addition, the clock is ticking on Manuel Margot’s tenure with the Pads anyway after their acquisition o Taylor Trammel. in the Franmil Reyes / Joe Bauer trade.
Who’s Joe Bauer?
As long as Preller can hide the medical records, sure
Dombrowski hid medical records on Anderson Espinoza
I’d do that trade all day
If you’re thinking Trammel is the Padres’ center fielder of the future, just know that he wasn’t good enough to play CF for the Reds’ AA team in Chattanooga this year.
Javy Guerra is a no-hit shortstop converted to a 99 MPH reliever. He got touched for 4 runs in 2/3 IP in his first ML appearance, and has appeared seven more times in 7-2/3 IP, giving up one run on 2 hits with six strikeouts and three walks. He was just converted to pitching at the end of last year, and has 21-1/3 IP in the minors this year, 30 IP total for his career. That’s not bad for a guy who was playing shortstop in 2018.
Expos had the best record in baseball and a star studded young roster and loaded farm system and were favorites for the World Series when the Baseball Strike killed their Championship Quest and basically killed baseball in Montreal.
Padres have not made the playoffs for 13 years so how about those apples
Better make some moves.
Padres sign either Castellanos, MadBum, or Porcello. Or two of the three. Which ever ones are doomed to be the next huge mistake, those will be the next Padres.
Castellanos makes no sense as a dh type player in the nl
They have to. They have a full 40-man roster, and 11 players on the 60-day IL who have to return to the 40-man when the World Series is over. Plus, they have a Chairman/minority-owner who is threatening to behead people, after he beheads himself first!
Nothing embarrassing about it. It’s just Padres baseball.
when you dig your own grave, you better be prepared to dig your way back out
You better make damn sure a player is going to be good before you shell out millions of dollars to them. Padres either could be a perennial winner or a basement dweller. There’s no in-between for this team given their huge contract deals. That Hosmer deal is absolutely ridiculous.
Padres are cursed. Literally everyone who was productive goes there and the production just falls off. Mannys war last season even with baltimore was twice what it was this season. Padres are forever stuck in rebuild.
because Chicago and Houston had such successful rebuilds everyone expects the same turnaround. it’s not unreasonable that San Diego would have similar results but the process takes a little longer. losing sucks but with these full rebuilds it takes time. I laugh when I see comments calling for full blown rebuilds. they stink but if being a little more patient means the gratification of sustained homegrown contention I say see it through
Its been five years or longer on this rebuilding program, were all tired of the excuses including the big money guy, Fowler when he rips the team you know things are going to change in a big way, you’ll see seven or eight new faces in 2020 on the roster, along with a new Mgr. and four new coaches.
It will have been 4 years as of November 12th (the 4-year anniversary of the day Joaquin Benoit was traded to Seattle).
It took the Royals 9 years so there is still hope.
He’s not the big money guy, just the chairman. The big money guy is Peter Seidler, the Managing General Partner who represents the group that bought out John Moores’ majority of the team. Peter Seidler’s mother and her brother Peter O’Malley, were co-owners of the Dodgers. They are the real owners, Ron Fowler is just the local face of ownership, but he may not have run his outburst past the other owners first.
I would make Preller in charge of scouting. He doesn’t have any talent building a ML team in the capacity hes in right now.
If he can’t build a team, he’s likely a lousy evaluator of talent. Why would you want him as a scout?
You then need to look at all of the ML talent that he signed/found as a scout.. the dude can find players
Take a look at that garbage pitching staff you can’t tell me that team is capable of more than that
That “garbage” pitching staff has an average age of 24. nearly half are rookies, almost all the other half were rookies last year. There were seventeen rookies on the team this year, promoted to the majors to make room for other prospects to move up.
That was a one time deal, to unclog the farm, but AJ Preller miscalculated that they could hold their own. They nearly did, but the offense couldn’t back them up. The Padres finished with 100 fewer runs scored than the league average!
In their final game of the season that they lost 1-0, they were 1 for 10 with runners in scoring position. The one hit didn’t produce a run, it just moved a runner from second to third. You can’t blame rookie pitchers too much with that kind of run support.
Attach prospects to those contacts and see who will bite. Jays would surely look at Myers if you add Patino and another upside arm. Maybe the Rangers for Hosmer, maybe the Padres take back Choo or Odor and add in a lower level prospect like a Bolanos, Head or Lawson…
Add the Padres to the list of teams who jumped the gun on their rebuild, along with the Reds and Phillies. 3 teams many were saying won the offseason and were knocking on the door.
The Twins, and Braves took a lot of preseason heat for being too “cheap” or passive and letting the team’s development to dictate their window of contention.
Hope my White Sox follow the second group’s path to success.
No they didn’t. No one said the padres won the off season. You heard the reds you heard the Mets and you heard the Phillies. The padres are grabbing pieces as they appear which is leading up to this off season.
Rebuild in full effect on Matt Kemp day. The day the traded to cancer to the braves July 2016
Are we going to ignore that Kimbrel was traded a year earlier? For 4 prospects?
Year earlier? You mean the first steps of the rebuild?
The next step was shields for tatis
And rebuild in full swing with kemp for oliveras
Tatis for a 16-35 James Shields. Greatest trade of all-time?
If he can stay healthy, Tatis needs to find a level of his ability without trying to win every game on his own, there’s 24 other players most will be gone in 2020 let’s hope Preller knows what he’s doing on these trades.
If Tatis never plays in another game, that trade was still a win for the Padres.
Your comment could have been good if you hadn’t cited Shields’ W/L record. That ruined your comment and every other comment you will ever make. Buh bye.
Ryne Sandberg
Tatis had played 0 games at the time and wasn’t considered a top prospect either.
Paddack for Fernando Rodney didn’t turn out too badly either.
Major overhaul is coming get rid of three OF’s please, Urias back to EP, trade off four of those pitchers, dump Myers, Hosmer if you can, get some OF’s who can field and hit a baseball and two SP’s who can go more than five innings.
Urias stays. .371 OBP in September.
Why does everyone hate urias
Because he didn’t immediately produce like Tatis did. But I wouldn’t put too much stock in what nowheretogobutup says. Among our fans on this site, only Padres2019ha and padreforlife beat him or her out in the lack of baseball and grammatical knowledge.
Sounds familiar
Yeah, that should be easy. Why didn’t the Padres think of that.
Preller is over matched as a GM. The all in trading one year and then all out the next. The signings of his free agents, the Mgr hires, and the much ballyhooed farm system who has produced a trickle of what should of been. Time to move on and hire someone who actually knows what they are doing. He is just like the GM who he worked under Jon Daniels in Texas. You never know what direction either club is going and prospects just seem not to pan out. Quality guys just not GM’s
PLEASE tell us which prospects the Padres have that didn’t pan out!
And before someone starts naming guys who flamed out like 10 years ago, I meant which prospects from the Preller era haven’t panned out? I’ll even count the ones that Preller didn’t draft or sign as long as they made it to the majors after he was hired.
Traded for? Logan Allen, Javi Guerra and that fortnight tool. There’s three.
More? There are tons that didn’t work out but there are more that have in the minors.
I like the rockstar but he needs a freaking coaching staff that can take that talent from the minors to the majors. Having Washington and not something knowing what they are doing does nothing.
Quit being cheap on the coaching staff and players.
I’ll give you Javy Guerra. Carlos Asuaje was never supposed to be more than a utility player and Logan Allen needs at least another year before we can write him off as a bust. And even then, he’d be the Indians’ bust.
as a Royals fan I’ve watched a little Padres baseball since they got Hosmer. Padres lack team speed for one.they need people to get on base and put pressure on the opping teams. the main reason Machado didn’t put up the same numbers because Baltimore is a very small ballpark. you need to look at the overall picture before signing free agents. if I was in charge I could have that team in the playoffs next year. I realize several other things the Padres lack
If that were true, you’d be in demand at the major league level.
tell them to call me
Tatis is their “team speed.” If he stays healthy, he’s the best leadoff hitter since Rickey Henderson.
His injury, along with the Reyes trade and a double A pitching staff, were huge factors in San Diego’s poor season this year.
Should be a busy offseason for the Padres because they are 4 or 5 pieces away from contending. Machado didn’t have a great year but even if he did they’d have maybe 3 or 4 more wins. Their pitching was doomed from the start. Hosmer did ok until September and his defense fell apart.
Sounds like bedhead Preller is finally going to have field a winner to stay employed. Nice.
Bryant for Gore and Trammel. You all can play him in the OF.
Does a desperate owner say no?
Lol you can keep Bryant
If Fowler’s going to apologize, he should get on the stadium PA system, a la Ray Kroc.
I was there. he was impressively candid, and was taking questions from the audience. We were pretty surprised that he named names, and even more so that he dropped ‘eating $10m or more’ of Myers’ contract
the most embarrassing thing about that organization is the beer distributor himself.
This ownership group and Preller are garbage. The results speak for themselves.
The Machado signing was odd as they had the players coming. The one thing that made no sense is they seemed to beef up the lineup and didn’t do anything for the rotation.
What 3rd baseman did they have coming?
Potts was one of their top prospects last year. He’s showing, like Trammel and Reed, that he hasn’t been able to hit AA pitching yet.
Hudson Potts had a .696 OPS in AA this year and will likely have to repeat the level. I really hope you weren’t banking on that guy to be their savior at 3rd base.
They had no one. That’s why they wanted a true 3rd baseman
They have some pitching, and they have more on the horizon. None of the FA SPs last year were any better than what they had. Machado, disregarding his price tag, was a really good fit. Their IF won’t change for five years, and there is value to that. And a really good #3 hitter, which they lacked.
the padres suck and will continue to suck
Crumbs Fowler no one cares what you say. Padres going from 90 losses to 90 wins now. What winning organizations talk like this “Heads will roll” mix in a salad Fowler and shut up.
Betts for Renfroe, Patino & Morejon. Who says no?, I assume SD says no, but how close would that be?
If that was legitimate offer from Boston, SD would take that in a heartbeat
Good. I thought it was a reasonable return for one year of Betts. Since this is such pure conjecture, I’m glad to see someone else think that this is his minimum value.
That said, does Betts bring back Gore + Renfroe? That, to me, looks a bit more like Realmuto trade, where one team gets a lower ranked replacement plus an elite prospect.
No @JoeBrady. Neither player is getting traded on their own for a rental. Let alone together.
No.
Embarrassing lol,they were what they were,rebuilding
Buck Showalter will have them in the playoffs as soon as next season.
They need 15 better players and that many new p;ayers will be better ib 2021..
Cut it out with the “Manny Machado is a superstar” and the “Manny Machado is spectacular”.
Manny Machado is a borderline All-Star that plays for himself, and when he wants to. He has a world of talent, but is entitled and expects to be catered to.
The percentage chance that he (and Harper in Philly) play out their long-term contracts in the cities they signed in, is about the same as the average baseball fan remembering the names AJ Preller and Matt Klentak in 5 years.
Harper and Machado WILL finish out their contracts in the cities they signed in. Both have a no-trade clause and no trade value.
No…..
They’ll want to go with a winner at some point. No MLB team competes for 10-12 years.
Hence the “no trade value.” Even if Harper/Machado consents to a trade, the Padres would have to get another team to consent to a trade as well.
Also Machado career .211 postseason hitter never won postseason series with Orioles
REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
I’d expect aggressive promotions within the Padres organization this year as Preller starts to feel the heat.
That could mean Gore, Trammell, and Patino could see big league action next year.
Preller needs to trade Hedges, Myers, and Renfroe to clear ABS in the OF. It’s clear none of them will be pieces of our contending team. Eat literally as much money as it takes to move Myers, he can go pass out at fundraisers with some other organization. I’m embarrassed to even own his jersey.
The Padres are stuck with Myers due to his contract and lack of success.
Hire Dave Dombrowski or another crackerjack GM to win a Championship.
Preller is making ridiculous trades and signings..
Machado was a good signing.
Myers and Hosmer etc…Not so much.
They way over paid for mediocrity.
Someone who knows what he or she is doing needs to fix this roster.
Lots of minor league talent.
Need to mix in some winning Veterans.
Fix the Rotation etc…
Machado was good signing?
Time will tell.
If they surround Manny Machado with the right talent, and if he helps them be a pennant contender for a contending run that includes a World Series, then it will be judged as a good signing.
I read that season ticket sales and individual ticket sales went up significantly after the Machado signing.
Ask me in 6-7 years….
Most major signings and trades cannot be adequately judged until 4-5 years have passed.
That’s the way I see it. It’s not a linear formula. Machado might be an awful signing for the Orioles, but a good signing for the Padres. If Machado pushes the young Padre team to 95 wins, it is a lot more valuable pushing BA or DET to 65 wins.
What’s he “pushed them to” so far?
+4 wins, but it’s only been one year. The idea is to combine cheap youth with good veteran players.
Errors and strikeouts….PADRES were best at something! Pressure will produce panic. Myers to AL. DH is his role. Paddock,Lamet,Richards…SP will be better.
A’s and rays find guys who hit the ball hard. Two of smallest payrolls. Brewers too. You don’t have to outspend Red Sox,Cubs,dodgers,angels to win.
Buy Preller a hairbrush and send him on his way. Bochy,Maddon not going to work for that lightweight.
Bingo
Myers, Weathers, Cantillo, Lawson to the Rangers for Mazara, Choo (who is in the last year and 20M left to offset some of Myers)…
Rangers would likely need to add more but SD unloads Myers Contract and ABs, picks up a buy low talented guy who Peller found when he was with the rangers, and Choo is a productive player who can then he flipped for penny’s on the dollar to clear more money..