MLB Trade Rumors has debuted a new feature for Front Office subscribers with our Trade Deadline Outlook series. In advance of the July 31 trade deadline, we looked at what each of the 30 teams may have in store for their roster construction plans. This entails buying, selling, or something in between as teams vary between all-in pushes for the 2025 World Series or more long-term looks towards building for the future. The series is now complete, and you can find links to each entry here.
NL West
NL Central
NL East
AL West
AL Central
AL East
Padres had a bad night against the Reds, Dylan Cease looks more and more like a three, he has electric stuff but is a two pitch pitcher and issues a lot of walks. Yuki Matsui has had a rough go of it in June, his second bad outing in a row. Their biggest issue is their inability to score runs. Nick Martinez no hit them through six innings. Is it time to sell in San Diego?
The reds are too streaky, the score will probably be reversed tonight.
It’s lefty Andrew Abbott against Randy Vasquez. Vasquez has pitched well this season but he, like Cease, is a flyball pitcher. The off speed stuff might play well against the Reds in a change of pace to Cease’s game, Spencer Steer lit him up, but it’s a big advantage for the Red’s with Abbott starting.
Padres are .230/.298/.348 against lefties on the season.
8 innings.
Why would they sell at 44-37 and a half game out of a wild card spot?
they played a soft schedule in April and May, they have a tough schedule in July and August.
They are in bad shape on the farm. They lost a lot yesterday with Cease and Matsui both getting exposed.
Trade King and Cease and the bullpen pieces. Sign Arreaz.
When your packing your house with fans and selling out more often then not, it’s typically not a good idea to throw in the towel when you’re in the thick of things.
Below are the records in their last 81 games the past three years. This year they are actually in a better spot record wise then they were either of the previous two season.
2024 – 52-29
2023 – 45-36
2022 – 42-39
have to look towards the bad contracts on your books, but there is always a case to be made for going for it every season and its admirable.
Let off the gas maybe you get rear-ended. But you can win without the players you trade away, you wont have them either way next season. You nailed it with Pivetta. Get some pitching prospects in return for Cease and King and build for ’26. Sign Arreaz long term, he is a great hitter.
Speaking like a fan with no accountability. If you’re the owner or the gm how do you explain it to fans. It’s very difficult to play seller and buyer. Ride it out offer the QO take the picks and hopefully your team makes a run in the playoffs, less risk and teams generally always go the less risky way
Arraez is not a great hitter.
I differ, his OBP and SLG isnt great but he is a great hitter. I like the Padres moving him to the four hole, that is a good spot for him, as untraditional as it may be.
Arreaz is having a down year, he should be hitting .330.
bwmiller79: King has a thoracic nerve issue in his shoulder that likely will keep him out past the deadline, and he can be a free agent after the season.
He has zero trade value until he shows he can actually pitch again this season.
“his OBP and SLG isnt great but”
Pure conjecture. He’s making poor quality contact this year.
You are right, but its a string if bad luck. He should be hitting .330. He is a .330 hitter.
bwnmiller79: But Arraez is a .284 hitter this year, .319 lifetime. Not a.330 hitter.
“You are what your record says you are.”
– Bill Parcells
High OBP and SLG is what makes a hitter great. OPS and OPS+ aren’t ideal stats, but they’re a good first pass when evaluating hitters.
Arraez has a career OPS+ of 116, 95 this year. He’s been good to very good (but not great) hitter for his career and is below average this season.
And right now, both King and Cease are viable candidates to accept the QO based injury (King) and quality of pitching (Cease). Never would have thought it 3-4 months ago but just saying King doesn’t come back until September and is just ok building back up; if Cease stays where he is stats wise.
A 1 year 22 mil contract to go back into FA the next year might be a thought. For King to show injury free and for Cease, he seems to be an even year star so come back in 26 and be too 5 CY like 24 and 22 and then sign big.
Sure, if they both finish off strong this is not a consideration and I hope they do!
Longtimecoming: Unless, of course, either or both don’t get the QO.
Always an option but first never would think they would accept, now do we dare say that neither is even offered?
So long as King returns and gives at least 4-5 starts of similar performance, he is a lock. Cease gets a little worse, maybe not.
They are on pace to win 89 games, a mark they’ve only bested 5 times in their 55 year history. Currently in 3rd wild card spot. Saying they should sell off highly motivated key pieces during the season and in all likelihood throw in the towel makes no sense.
Plus I don’t think it’s in Preller’s DNA to give up if there is a path in plain sight.
Longtimecoming: Dare? Do we dare say?
Is it somehow sacrilegious to speculate that the Padres might not wish to be stuck with one of them next year?
It’s a business decision, not a matter of doctrine or dogma.
Papi, the one thing that is almost a 100% certainty is that AJ will be involved in a trade in the next 30 days.
A big one, a whacky one, something small – but something.
It’s really not even fun to try and guess anymore because there just isn’t any predicting what he might do.
Barring a really bad month I don’t see any way the padres sell at the deadline.
New ownership, spent past the second tax line. A fan base that is propping up the revenue with huge attendance.
Much much more likely to go for it than sell. Now with that said could they trade cease while adding a starter? That’s possible if they can get both king and Darvish back before the deadline.
If (might be a big if) they can get a healthy king and Darvish they should be good on starting pitching. Which means they really need to add a LF/DH/utility guy depending on if sheets is going to play LF. If he does that gives them options on bats they can add. The other spot is catcher. The bottom of the lineup has been really bad. To go along with Tatis not hitting like a star. As is the lineup has real issues and the starting pitching has issues. The next 2-3 weeks like other teams will be huge for this team.
Martinez no-hit them through eight innings.
Martinez is underrated
Offense has been done but really, this isn’t uncommon where a former player has his day against former team.
Nick Martinez no hit them through 8+
So trade Baldwin, Riley, and Olson too? Hilarious. Albies looks washed this season. Hard to make an argument to the contrary, but calling him a “terrible hitter since 2021” is ludicrous. Injuries weakened him last season and it looks like he hasn’t recovered. The broken wrist seems to have sapped his power. His 2023 season—— “In 148 games…..280/.336 /.513. OPS ,849. 167 hits, 33 home runs, 109 rbi, 96 runs scored. Albies led ALL qualified second basemen in homers, rbi, and slugging percentage. He also led ALL qualified MLB hitters vs left handed pitching w/a .391 average (50-128) against them.” You’ve been wrong on Albies since 2021. Too bad that this season has finally allowed you to be “right” about something (for once)—over the first half of this season anyway.
The ball was live for every hitter in 2023. Albies was one of the top hitting 2BMen in 2023 by most measures. You rant about how bad he’s been “since 2021” while failing to mention that he missed over half of 2022 (played in 64 games) w/a broken foot and appeared in 99 games in 2024 sandwiched around a broken wrist and other injuries. His big numbers in 2023 came in 149 games. Yeah, he swings at too many pitches out of the strike zone, but when healthy, he still produces good numbers (especially as a 2Bman.) Could he walk more? Certainly. Do I wish he’d stop swinging at so many pitches out of the strike zone? Absolutely. Very few players don’t have something about their game that could be improved. Your “never” rants are based on the same unrealistic expectations you place on every Brave. Btw—-until this season, Albies has had the one of MLB’s best wrc+ numbers in his career as a right handed hitter. 146 wrc+ vs lefties, 93 wrc+ hitting left handed. One thing I’ve seen you mention before is your wish to see him stop switch hitting. At this point in the season, I’m not sure whether it would help, but I kind of agree w/you on that.
White Sox should trade Luis Robert Jr. A contender could use an injury prone center fielder with a lot of pop and little plate discipline right?