Howard Megdal | MLB Trade Rumors

Reliving Rickey Henderson Trades With Alderson

By Howard Megdal | March 28, 2011 at 9:00pm CDT

Current New York Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson described Rickey Henderson as the best player he's ever had in any of his organizations. And yet, Alderson managed to trade Henderson not once, but twice. In between, Alderson re-acquired him and won a World Series with him. Arguably, Alderson managed to come out on top in all three trades.

So during a one-on-one discussion with MLB Trade Rumors this past weekend, Alderson was happy to reminisce about the finest leadoff hitter in baseball history, and his many transactions.

When Alderson first traded Henderson in December 1984, Rickey had completed five-and-a-half seasons as a major leaguer. His career line at that point was .291/.400/.408, good for an OPS+ of 131, and he'd hit more than 10 home runs just once in any season. He was entering his age-26 season.

"Well, probably in 1985, we didn't have a full appreciation of all his talents," Alderson said as we spoke just outside the Mets' spring clubhouse in Port St. Lucie, Florida. "We were a team in need of additional strength at a variety of positions. The players we got for Rickey actually turned out pretty well. And it was one of those things where the contract may have had something to do with it as well."

Indeed, while the Yankees signed Henderson to a five-year, $8.6MM deal after acquiring him, they gave up a ton of talent for the right to do so. New York sent Tim Birtsas, Jay Howell, Stan Javier, Eric Plunk and Jose Rijo to Oakland for Henderson, minor league pitcher Bert Bradley and cash.

Oakland didn't have the resources to re-sign Henderson or the surrounding talent to justify an extension, yet the haul Alderson got for the soon-to-be-free agent was substantial. In Howell, the Athletics added a reliever coming off of a dominant season, just turning 29, who would go on to make the All-Star team in three of his next five seasons. Jose Rijo was one of the finest pitching prospects in the game, though injuries kept him from reaching his potential until he arrived in Cincinnati. Javier was a useful outfield piece, while Birtsas and Plunk were both big, strong pitchers who'd been drafted high by the Yankees – Plunk in the fourth round of the 1981 draft, Birtsas in the second round of the 1982 draft.

"I don't think we knew exactly who would be the centerpiece of that deal,' Alderson recalled. "Jay Howell was an All Star reliever. Jose Rijo beat us up pretty badly in the 1990 World Series. Stan Javier was a good player. Eric Plunk pitched in the major leagues for quite a while. Tim Birtsas had a short career. I don't think we knew, but Rijo was more highly touted than some of the others."

But as Alderson acknowledged, it is uncommon to receive contributions from all five players in a five-for-two deal.

"Sometimes you get a little bit lucky," Alderson said. "You try and identify players in a trade, but these days, even for a quality player, it's tough to get four or five players, and certainly four or five top prospects."

Alderson wasn't ready to take credit for his heist resulting in that reluctance, the way many believe the Herschel Walker deal affected NFL transactions.

"No, I think it's the money now being paid to more experienced players. The fact that a 25-year-old who's controllable is worth a lot more to a team, but also, teams are far less willing to move a player like that."

Fast forward to the summer of 1989, and the Athletics were in a far different place when Henderson publicly expressed a desire to get out of New York. Oakland won the American League pennant in 1988, but lost to the Dodgers in the World Series. So to Alderson, bringing Henderson back had everything to do with finding that final piece, rather than making a move to please the Oakland fans by reuniting them with an Oakland native. Paying the price of Plunk, no longer a prospect, pitcher Greg Cadaret and outfielder Luis Polonia turned out to be a huge move for Oakland in June 1989.

"I don't think it had anything to do with the fans. I think it was about improving the team from '88 to '89", Alderson said. "I don't think there's any doubt that Rickey Henderson was a huge difference between our success in '89 and our loss to the Dodgers in '88. He made us a much better team."

The numbers back up Alderson's contention. Henderson was the 1989 ALCS MVP, putting up a 1.609 OPS and stealing eight bases. In the 1989 World Series, that OPS dropped all the way to… 1.419. He had another three stolen bases, too.

That dominance carried right into the 1990 season, when Henderson captured the AL MVP award, posted an OPS of 1.016 (good for an OPS+ of 188), stole 65 bases in 75 attempts and hit 28 home runs. It might be the finest all-around season any hitter ever enjoyed. As Alderson pointed out, the Reds stymied the Athletics in the 1990 World Series, led by former Oakland pitcher and Henderson transaction veteran Jose Rijo.

Though the Reds denied the A's back-to-back titles, Henderson did his part. Alderson says the A's were ready for him again by 1989.

"I think so, yes, and also taking advantage of an opportunity that presented itself. I don't recall whether they reached out to me, or I read about it and called them. But definitely something we were interested in – we thought he could make a difference. There was a little bit of disagreement in the organization about bringing him back, but I'm glad we did."

Perhaps Alderson's most inventive swapping of Henderson came in July of 1993. The once-great Athletics had fallen on hard times. Henderson had an OPS+ of 182, but his fellow stars on the three-time pennant winners had fallen prey to age and injury. With Oakland headed for a seventh-place finish, and Henderson to free agency, Alderson traded him on July 31, 1993 to Toronto for pitcher Steve Karsay and outfielder Jose Herrera. After Henderson led Toronto to the World Series, he re-signed with Oakland that winter.

"They had an interest in him," Alderson said of Toronto and Henderson. "I think, from our standpoint, we were looking at beginning to rebuild that team. We got a couple of players that we liked – Steve Karsay was one of them."

In other words, Alderson got two of Baseball America's Top 100 prospects in exchange for a few months of Henderson that wouldn't have helped the Athletics, anyway. The deal seems less one-sided because of the World Series title and Karsay's subsequent injuries (Baseball America rated him 12th among MLB prospects). And Herrera, seldom discussed, never broke through in the major leagues, but as recently as 2010, hit .337/.389/.468 for the York Revolution of the Atlantic League.

Alderson added, joking, "I'm not sure if we brought Rickey back again after that," but he did talk about reaching out to Larry Lucchino when he ran the San Diego Padres to recommend that he sign Henderson. In other words, he may have traded him twice, but Alderson did so without malice. And for Mets fans worried that Alderson is about to deal a player many have compared to Henderson – Jose Reyes – it should be reassuring that no matter what side of a Henderson deal Alderson was on, he came out ahead.

Jack Of All Trades: Oliver Perez

By Howard Megdal | March 14, 2011 at 12:20pm CDT

It's been a rough week for Oliver Perez, and given his overall tenure with the Mets, that is no small feat. Thanks to his 9.00 spring ERA and inability to throw strikes or reach 90 miles per hour with his fastball, the Mets removed Perez from consideration for the starting rotation. Those difficulties are likely to lead to Perez's failure in the bullpen, too, and his eventual release.

If this is where it ends, Perez will almost certainly be viewed as a cautionary tale from an acquisition perspective. After all, the Mets signed Perez to a three-year, $36MM contract prior to the 2009 season, only to receive 112 1/3 innings of 6.81 ERA pitching. So it may surprise some to find out that both times teams traded for Oliver Perez, they came out ahead.

The San Diego Padres signed Oliver Perez as an amateur free agent back in 1999. By 2002, he made his big league debut as a 20-year-old, displaying both the now-faded ability to strike batters out in droves and his still-present tendency to walk more than his share of hitters. Nevertheless, he offered tantalizing ability, leading to the Padres' decision to trade Perez, a 24-year-old Jason Bay and minor leaguer Corey Stewart to Pittsburgh for a 32-year-old Brian Giles.

While Giles had a decent-but-costly run of strong offense and diminishing defense for the Padres, Perez and Bay quickly made the deal look like a steal for the Pirates. Perez posted a 2.98 ERA in 196 innings, while Bay posted a .907 OPS and won the NL Rookie of the Year.

Put it wins above replacement terms, Perez earned a WAR of 5.1 in 2004, well above Giles' 3.0 and Bay's 2.2. In fact, Perez's 2004 was a more valuable season than any that anyone in the trade would enjoy, other than Jason Bay's 2009.

But contrast the $8.8MM salary Giles earned in 2004 with the $321K Perez took home, and $305K from Bay, and the gap becomes enormous.

Perez did go on to struggle in 2005 and 2006, with Bay carrying the lion's share of the value for the Pirates in subsequent years. Still, when Pittsburgh decided to unload Perez in 2006, it was the receiving team, the New York Mets, who benefited.

On July 31, 2006, New York traded starting right fielder Xavier Nady to the Pirates for Perez and Roberto Hernandez, a relief pitcher tabbed to replace the injured Duaner Sanchez. And while Perez struggled over the remainder of the 2006 season, he posted a 1.4 WAR in 2007 and a 1.5 WAR in 2008. By contrast, Nady provided -0.9 WAR in 2007 for the Pirates, and 1.9 WAR in 2008. Roberto Hernandez even chipped in another 0.2 WAR for the Mets at the tail end of 2006 to even out Nady and Perez that season.

Naturally, there are Mets fans who blame the trade for the subsequent contract debacle, just as a divorced couple often turns on the person who introduced them. Perez, in an odd bit of symmetry, followed his 1.4 and 1.5 WAR seasons in 2007 and 2008 with a -1.4 mark in 2009 and -1.5 in 2010, as if to erase every bit of good he'd done the team.

Still, all that proves is that signing Oliver Perez to a massive free agent contract hasn't been a good idea. Trading for Perez, on the other hand, is a winning proposition. Let this be a lesson to the other 29 teams, who probably have a few weeks at most before the only way they can acquire Perez is for free.

Jack Of All Trades: Non-Roster Invitees

By Howard Megdal | March 4, 2011 at 3:45pm CDT

We all have that possession we once paid a lot for, but would now have trouble giving away. Maybe it is a suit we wore too many times that sits in a pile at the back of our closet. Perhaps it is a tiara we thought would set off our eyes, with many of the gemstones long since fallen out. It could even be a sleek sports car that had the exterior of a Porsche, but it turns out, the engineering of a Yugo.

Non-roster invitees are sometimes like that, too. Teams once demanded small ransoms just for the right to negotiate extensions with these players for 72 hours. But now? Teams essentially say, "We won't get mad if you want to hang out for a while. No guarantees, though."

So who among the 2011 NRIs has fallen the furthest? Let's take a look, shall we?

The list has to start with Bartolo Colon, one of the many plus-sized pitchers found in Yankees' camp. Twice in seven months, teams gave up significant treasure for the chance to employ Colon. The Montreal Expos famously traded Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and Lee Stevens for Colon and Tim Drew in June 2002. That deal, made by GM Omar Minaya, had a lot to do with the contraction threat hanging over the Expos, making the 2002 season something of a last hurrah for Montreal (though the team would spend two more seasons there before moving to Washington).

Seven months later, however, Colon went with Jorge Nunez from the now-reprieved Expos to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Rocky Biddle, Orlando Hernandez, Jeff Liefer and cash. Contrast that with what the Yankees gave up – a chance to be right up close when George Steinbrenner was honored – and just how quickly eight years passed becomes apparent.

The same can be said of fellow Yankee NRI Freddy Garcia. Back in July 1998, Garcia was a key piece, along with Carlos Guillen and John Halama, in the deal that sent Randy Johnson to Houston. But Garcia proved to be the center of a pair of trades himself. First, in June 2004, Garcia and catcher Ben Davis went to the White Sox for Mike Morse, Miguel Olivo and Jeremy Reed. Remember, Reed was a huge prospect then, rather than a failed Mets first baseman (Reed is now an NRI himself, in Milwaukee). Then, in December 2006, the White Sox shipped Garcia to the Phillies for a pair of pretty solid pitching prospects, Gio Gonzalez and Gavin Floyd.

On the hitting side, watching the diminishing return teams received for Casey Kotchman is like watching a falling meteor, except the meteor is a prospect and can't hit much for a first baseman. Back in July 2008, Kotchman and minor leaguer Steve Marek were all that it took for the Angels to pry Mark Teixeira from the Braves. A year later, Kotchman went from Atlanta to Boston, this time for Adam LaRoche. And in January 2010, the Red Sox dealt Kotchman to the Seattle Mariners, this time for Bill Hall coming off of a down year. Now, he's an NRI. But oh, how recently he was so much more.

A similar dynamic played out with Wily Mo Pena, who appears to be the most-traded NRI. In March 2001, the Yankees traded Wily Mo to the Reds for super-prospects Michael Coleman and Drew Henson. (Trust me, it was epic at the time.) As late as March 2006, a Wily Mo could get you Bronson Arroyo and cash from the Boston Red Sox. But by 2007, the bloom was off the Wily Mo – the Red Sox needed to deal Pena and cash to Washington just to bring back Chris Carter (who is a 2011 NRI with the Tampa Bay Rays).

Many of you probably would have given plenty, years ago, for a Wily Mo Pena. But now, like an outfield version of Norma Desmond, Pena is out begging for work. I don't know, maybe Pena is as big as ever – it's just the rosters that have gotten small.

Jack Of All Trades: My First 2011 Pack

By Howard Megdal | February 25, 2011 at 8:30pm CDT

While much of the attention has been focused on the anniversary that Topps is celebrating- 60 years of selling baseball cards- I, too, reached a milestone. I've been collecting baseball cards for 25 years, going back to the first pack of Topps I opened in 1986, with Glenn Wilson there to greet me first.

My collecting isn't as serious as it was when I was growing up, but it still represents a part of me that stubbornly refuses to mature. After all, I don't get the thrill of trading with my friends anymore. My wife doesn't have any cards I want, and my baby daughter offers little for my best cards, other than future considerations in exchange for the chance to chew on one. (Screw-top cases are the thinking father's teether.)

But when this year's Topps came out, I treated myself to a box. If I couldn't trade them myself, I figured, I could write about just which trades I'd find hidden within a random pack of cards. Here's what I found, from my very first pack in the box.

First up was Kevin Kouzmanoff, a participant in two trades. Back in November 2006, the Indians traded Kouzmanoff and Andrew Brown to San Diego for Josh Barfield. Alas, none of the participants in that trade panned out, and San Diego shipped Kouzmanoff and discipline-rich infielder Eric Sogard to the Athletics for outfielders Aaron Cunningham, who was useful in 2010, and Scott Hairston, who really wasn't. Both from a trade and card standpoint, it was kind of a Glenn Wilson way to start.

Next came Brandon Inge, a man who has worked hard to stay out of MLBTR's web, much like a celebrity who tries to avoid TMZ by wearing underwear. He was drafted by the Tigers in 1998, and that is where you'll find him today. Same goes for my third card, Peter Bourjos, a product of the Anaheim organization still in Anaheim. Bourjos is pictured about to either make a sliding catch, or gift someone a triple.

Fourth up was a special card- recognizing Manny Ramirez for putting up the ninth-best OPS of all time. Ramirez has seen his share of moving around, but only one trade bears his name. It is one of the more underrated moves of the past few years. The Dodgers, as part of a three-way deal, sent Bryan Morris and Andy LaRoche to the Pirates, while the Red Sox traded Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss to the Pirates. The Dodgers got Ramirez. The Red Sox got Bay. Leave aside Bay for a moment- that means the Dodgers got 223 games of a 170 OPS+ from Ramirez for Bryan Morris and Andy LaRoche. That was a steal. I'm putting Ramirez in hard plastic.

Batting fifth, a game-used memorabilia card from Josh Hamilton. He earned the honor for finishing with the highest OPS in baseball last year, while Topps earns major plaudits from me for caring so much about expanded stats. (Get me a Topps card with WAR and we'll really be talking.) The Hamilton deal back in December 2007 was one of my favorites. The Reds got back pitchers Edinson Volquez and Danny Herrera. Despite Hamilton's injury struggles since then, he's been significantly more valuable than Volquez, leading to the obvious conclusion: bank on the position ahead of the pitcher in any challenge trade. They are far more projectible.

Batting sixth is Stephen Strasburg, while Andre Ethier takes up the seventh spot. I don't intend to ruin any nights among Nats or Dodgers fans by suggesting that either one has been traded. But I thought of the two as a kind of Hamilton-for-Volquez challenge trade. Which future would you bet on? The smart money is probably on Ethier, even with the dramatically higher ceiling Strasburg offers.

Rounding out the pack was a CC Sabathia card, inviting me to unlock some digital Topps cards. I admit to being confused by the idea of virtual cards-isn't that just eBay cards I look at but can't afford?- but will happily see what the online fuss is all about. Having a virtual CC Sabathia is probably what the Milwaukee Brewers felt like they had after dealing Michael Brantley, Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson and Zach Jackson for him in the summer of 2008, only to see the Yankees snap him up that winter.

Overall, it was not my strongest pack of all time- that would be a 1989 Donruss pack I got on a trip to a bagel establishment long since defunct in Marlton, NJ, which contained eight all stars in 15 cards, if memory serves. But the pack served a vital purpose- by the time I finished looking, baseball season was that much closer.

Jack Of All Trades: My Birthday Edition

By Howard Megdal | February 18, 2011 at 1:40pm CDT

As someone who shares a birthday with Michael Jordan, Lou Diamond Phillips and Paris Hilton, the talents I bring to the table should be obvious. Yet I look to those baseball players born on my birthday constantly for affirmation and for ammunition in my ongoing effort to convince my wife that my birthday team will beat her birthday team, a battle she consistently meets with what I can only assume is an affect of indifference.

I turned 31 on Thursday, February 17, and thought it would be a good time to once again check out my zodiac compatriots. Alas, no one new has emerged since Brian Bruney, who stumbled through the 2010 season. But it also led me to wonder – are teams better off trading for players born on my birthday, or trading them away?

As mentioned before, Bruney doesn't present a strong case. Dealt by the Yankees to the Nationals for Jamie Hoffmann in the winter of 2009, Bruney pitched to a 7.64 ERA over 17.2 innings in 2010 before getting uncermoniously dumped in May. Hoffman, whom the Nationals had acquired in the Rule 5 draft from the Dodgers, was eventually returned by the Yankees to the Dodgers, where he still threatens to break through as a fifth outfielder. In other words, strike one.

Josh Willingham, born exactly one year before me, makes a better case for my people. Acquired by Washington with Scott Olsen from Florida for Jake Smolinski, P.J. Dean and Emilio Bonifacio, Willingham gave the Nats a pair of solid offensive seasons, with a 127 OPS+ in 2009, a 129 OPS+ in 2010. The Athletics traded for him this winter, giving up Corey Brown and promising young pitcher Henry Rodriguez of the close rivals, the Fightin' February Twenty-Fifths. The jury's still out on this one.

Going further back in time, the February 17th connection had a feel-good story in Roger Craig, born on that date in 1930. After a pair of seasons with the Mets in 1962 and 1963, campaigns in which Craig pitched reasonably well, but piled up a combined 46 losses, the Cardinals acquired him for pitcher Bill Wakefield and outfielder George Altman.

While Wakefield was mediocre and Altman was well below that, Craig had a magnificent season in St. Louis, pitching to a 118 ERA+ and even striking out nine over five scoreless innings in the World Series. He is a monument to the best a February 17 trade can work out. His transaction a year later, along with Charlie James to Cincinnati for Bob Purkey, ended with little value on either side. Purkey was born in, of all months, July.

As for the most famous February 17 baseball baby: that would be Wally Pipp back in 1893, who was never traded, only sold. One can imagine the Yankees were able to drive up his price only so far following the 1925 season in which Lou Gehrig established himself, making idle threats about keeping Pipp for another 48 years, then installing him at Designated Hitter. We learn little from Pipp's example in terms of trade value, but it reminds me of an important lesson: never take Tim up on an offer to take the day off. We February 17ths are easily replaced.

Can Teams Find Love On Valentine’s Day?

By Howard Megdal | February 14, 2011 at 9:05am CDT

That big red day on our calendars has arrived. For some of us, the night will be filled with various distractions to keep our minds from the inescable fact that we are alone in the world. For those of us who are attached, the day can serve as a payment in advance to our spouse, in exchange for the inescable time vacuum to come the moment pitchers and catchers report.

But while we are forced by television show theme episodes and huge pharmacy candy displays to consider the health of our romatic lives, baseball teams have proven to be a surprisingly unsentimental lot. Few transactions occur on February 14th each season- teams have made the incredible decision to sign or trade for players based on need, instead of sprinkling roses across the infield grass to let prospective free agents know that they are, indeed, The One.

For those teams that did in recent years: were they able to find love? Let's take a look.

Last Valentine's Day, not a single transaction occurred. But back in 2009, the Mets signed Livan Hernandez, clearly choosing a partner they knew would stick by them, through good innings and bad. For a while, it appeared a love connection had formed. Hernandez won the fifth-starter spot that spring, and posted a respectable 4.04 ERA through June 28th. But things fell apart quickly after that, with Hernandez putting up an 8.71 ERA in his next eight starts. The Mets told Hernandez they wanted to see other starters, and Livan headed south to the Nationals, where he found a new home. He even came back to face the Mets in April of 2010, pitching seven shutout innings against his former flame. Awkward!

The Mets were also involved with two of the four Valentine's Day signings in 2008: reliever Ricardo Rincon and outfielder Ben Johnson. The team proceeded to stand Johnson up, keeping him in the minors, while Rincon turned out to be a four-inning September fling. 2008's other two Valentine's Day signings, Kent Mercker to the Reds and David Newhan to the Astros, met with some limited success. But King Edward VIII and Wallis Simpson it wasn't.

To find a couple that outperformed the critics, you'd have to go back to 2007, when the Red Sox gave J.D. Drew a five year, $70MM contract on Valentine's Day. (Matchmaker Scott Boras brought them together, though it is unclear if he used the phrase "Kismet!") While some thought it wouldn't last, the Red Sox are entering the final season of Drew's contract, and have to be pretty satisfied with the results so far. Drew has given them an OPS+ of 120 over four seasons and 2,093 plate appearances – a solid record of both performance and durability. Here's hoping Theo Epstein sends Drew flowers today.

But it would be downright coldhearted to overlook the other connection that day in 2007, between the Washington Nationals and Dmitri "More to Love" Young. Brought in merely to compete for the first base job, Young seized it and never looked back, hitting .340 by the All-Star break to earn a selection, and finishing up with a season line of .320/.378/.491. Smitten, the Nationals signed him to a two-year, $10MM contract extension. However, the affair turned as one-sided as the coupling between Lisa Simpson and Ralph Wiggum, with Young playing in just 50 games in 2008 and none in 2009.

Still, who are we to judge this brief flame in our nation's capital? So whatever your intentions, may all of your Valentine's Days be as successful as Dmitri Young's 2007.

The Madoff/Wilpon Mess: A Simple Guide

By Howard Megdal | February 7, 2011 at 10:22am CDT

Maybe you're wondering: why do I need to follow the lawsuit by Irving Picard, trustee for Bernie Madoff victims, against Fred Wilpon and his business partners, who own the New York Mets? Regardless of the outcome, will Luis Castillo hit any better? Will Oliver Perez pitch any better? Will Johan Santana heal any better?

The answer to all three questions is, sadly, no. But the ramifications of the suit, unsealed last Friday, will impact the way the Mets are run for years to come, whether Fred Wilpon is forced to take on a minority owner, sell the entire team, or spend the upcoming months (and possibly years) in litigation.

The Mets' ownership group is being sued for $300MM in fictitious profits, along with another $700MM in damages, for their connection to the Ponzi scheme operated by Bernie Madoff. The impact on the franchise is likely to be immense. Here's what you need to know about the current circumstances:

Fred and Jeff Wilpon said late last month that they would sell 20-25% of the team to guard against any potential Madoff settlement. Since then, settlement talks have broken down, leading to the unsealing of the lawsuit last week.
Picard is seeking $300MM in fictitious profits from Wilpon and his business partners. In addition, Picard seeks an unspecificied amount beyond that (the New York Times reports it "could reach beyond $1 billion") alleging that Wilpon should have known or suspected Madoff's scheme.
The standard by which Picard arrived at the $300MM is pretty common in these cases- fictitious profits are distributed to those who lost money in Ponzi schemes, scams where new backers are consistently recruited to pay off old investors. For the Wilpons to incur losses above $300MM, Picard's standard will be to prove that a "reasonable man" would have suspected something was amiss regarding Madoff's scheme, and alleges numerous instances of the Fred Wilpon and his partner/brother-in-law Saul Katz receiving warnings from both business partners and Katz's own son.
It isn't clear how Wilpon would raise anything approaching even the initial $300MM from a minority sale of the Mets. Forbes valued the team at $845MM in April 2010, but Wilpon has borrowed heavily against the team. Forbes reported this week that the combined book value of the Mets and Citi Field, including debt, is negative $225MM, though Adam Rubin of ESPN New York has cast doubt on that figure. That was before the Mets were named specifically in Picard's suit, giving the team even more potential liability.
Even if someone would pay a premium to own the Mets outright, it is far less clear that someone will pay that same premium for a minority stake and no authority. In other words, a 25 percent stake in the Mets is worth $211.25MM as per April 2010, absent any of the debt or other mitigating factors, and assuming that a 25 percent stake (minority) is actually worth one quarter of 100 percent stake (majority). (It isn't.) Obviously, with all the mitigating factors, 25 percent of the Mets isn't worth close to $211.25MM – which is, itself, far less than the $300MM Picard is likeliest to recover.
SNY is enormously profitable, and would earn a decent amount in a straight sale. However, Wilpon and his partners have borrowed against SNY as well, diluting the value. And far more ominously, the New York Post reported this week that any proceeds from a sale of SNY would be distributed to those lenders. In other words, when Jeff Wilpon described SNY as wholly separate from any sale of the Mets last Friday, he may not have been making a choice.
At the end of the day, no one knows what the maximum amount of money Fred Wilpon and his partners can raise without selling a majority stake in the New York Mets. But there is a number, X, and as long as Picard's settlement would be higher than X, Wilpon will face the choice between fighting in court and losing his team.
It may well be that there is a certain amount of money Wilpon needs to raise to avoid bankruptcy, even including a full sale of the team. If we call that Y, and Picard's settlement would be higher than Y, Wilpon has even greater reason to fight this in court, hoping a judge sees things his way.
Either way, the longer Wilpon doesn't settle, the likelier it is that one of these two scenarios has come to pass. The results would be disastrous for the New York Mets. With cases such as these often taking a year or more, Mets ownership could be in the midst of this battle next November, just as Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes are scheduled to hit free agency.

Jack Of All Trades: Baseball’s Roundest

By Howard Megdal | February 4, 2011 at 9:36am CDT

They are the men who made you question the aspect ratio of your television. They are the men who cried out in the night about the cruel, one-size-fits-all nature of per diem meal money. They are the men who convinced your Uncle Al he was in shape, because he was thinner than a professional athlete.

These are some of baseball's most rotund individuals, and the trades that shaped their careers as surely as those Spanx for Men failed them. I have avoided simply going by weight. After all, Jon Rauch tips the scales at 290, but he's 6'11". Any skinnier, and hordes of mothers would pour out of the stands, Morganna-style, armed with soup.

But Jumbo Brown tipped the scales at 295, stood just 6'4", and stands as the weightiest pitcher ever traded. Brown was sold twice and traded at the end of his career. Near the end of a strong 1941 season out of the bullpen for the Giants – a 113 ERA+ in 57 innings – the Cardinals acquired Brown and a player to be named later for Lefty Sunkel. Sunkel was, you guessed it, a lefty pitcher. He pitched sporadically for the Giants over the next few years, while Brown went on to serve honorably in the United States Navy. I certainly won't judge this trade a failure for St. Louis simply because the team failed to anticipate the attack on Pearl Harbor.

Another player who's been profitable for big and tall shops is C.C. Sabathia, who continues to ply his trade for the New York Yankees. Sabathia was traded just once, by the Cleveland Indians, for Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, Rob Bryson and Zach Jackson. While it is too early to completely judge this trade – Brantley and LaPorta still have bright futures, despite rocky early major league careers – no one would claim that Milwaukee erred by trading for Sabathia. If the Brewers made a mistake, it was letting Sabathia leave as a free agent.

Among portly pitchers, I would be remiss not to mention Fat Freddie Fitzsimmons, of course. Based on his listed measurements, it looks like Fat Freddie got a bad rap – he was just 5'11", 185 pounds. Put it this way – to measure up to the weightiest man in baseball history, he would have to have eaten Freddie Patek.

Fitzsimmons was traded in the midst of his 13th season with the New York Giants, a successful run of 111 ERA+ over 2514 1/3 innings. The Dodgers acquired him for Tom Baker, who had the nickname "Rattlesnake", suggesting Baker cut a very different figure. While Baker soon fizzled, Fitzsimmons actually pitched better with the Dodgers – an ERA+ of 116 over seven seasons – than he did with the Giants. The Dodgers certainly never regretted that deal.

Among hitters, one man casts a shadow over his peers when it comes to sheer tonnage – and it seems fair to wonder if his weight cost him major league jobs he could have filled. Walter Young, all 6'5", 320 pounds of him, did nothing but hit everywhere he went. At age 21, he posted a .953 OPS in Single-A. Still, the Pirates waived him, and Baltimore picked him up. He hit 33 home runs for Baltimore's Double-A team in 2004, and when he got the big league call in 2005, he put up a 115 OPS+ over 37 plate appearances. The Padres picked him up on waivers from Baltimore, however, and Young lost the first base job in the spring of 2006 to some guy named Adrian Gonzalez.

Sure, there have been the Calvin Pickerings, the Joey Meyers, the generations of Fielders… but no one weighed in within 30 pounds of Walter Young among position players. And far lesser hitters got more opportunities to show teams what they could do.

Rounding out the everyday players, I have to mention John Kruk, listed at 5'10", 170, but, well, clearly not. Kruk penned the epic autobiography "I Ain't An Athlete, Lady", but he sure hit like an athlete. The Padres traded Kruk, along with utilityman Randy Ready, to the Phillies for outfielder Chris James during the 1989 season. While James provided value as a fourth outfielder for an array of teams, Kruk was a middle-of-the-order bat for Philadelphia, hitting at a 138 OPS+ clip over six seasons with the Phillies.

Again and again, the men who know plenty about seconds did plenty to help their teams finish first. When evaluating trades in the future, stats like WAR are useful, to be sure. But it may be best to simply use a deli scale.

Jack Of All Trades: Baseball’s Tallest

By Howard Megdal | January 24, 2011 at 7:59am CDT

As Chris Young found out this week, baseball doesn't pay its players by the yard. Though he checks in at 6'10", Young signed a deal for just $1.1MM guaranteed. Meanwhile, noted tiny person Dustin Pedroia will make $5.5MM in 2011, despite checking in at a generous listing of 5'9". (The rule isn't proportionally inverse, however- 3'7" Eddie Gaedel made just $100 for his one plate appearance).

The Young signing got me wondering: how often is the team getting the tallest player in a trade also getting the best player in that transaction? Let's take a look at trades involving some of baseball's best bets to reach that can on the top shelf.

Currently, the tallest player in baseball history is 6'11" Jon Rauch, who has been dealt three times. In July of 2004, Rauch went from the White Sox, along with reliever Gary Majewski, to the Expos for Carl Everett. Over five seasons in Montreal and Washington, Rauch pitched to a strong ERA+ of 132, becoming one of baseball's better relievers. Everett managed a meager OPS+ of 90 over the rest of 2004, and just 94 in 2005. Is it a coincidence that Everett stands just 6'0?

Chicago dealt Rauch after the 2008 season to Arizona for Emilio Bonifacio, who is a full foot shorter than Rauch. While Bonafacio continued his career-long trend of not hitting, Rauch was awful in the desert, pitching to a 6.56 ERA. Arizona finally sent him to Minnesota in August 2009 for the reasonably-tall 6'2" Kevin Mulvey. Rauch once again thrived. It is hard to say any team that traded for Rauch lost the deal. In this case, the tallest turned out to be best.

As for the aforementioned Young, he's also been traded three times. The Pirates shipped him to the Expos for 5'11" Matt Herges in December 2002. While Herges had a middling season with Montreal, Young continued to pitch well in the minors, leading to a second deal in April 2004. This time Young went to the Rangers with 6'2" minor leaguer Josh McKinley for 6'3" Justin Echols and catcher Einar Diaz, who is not only 5'10", but positionally spends much of his time crouching. And while Young wasn't the best player in the six-person deal that brought him, Adrian Gonzalez and Termel Sledge to San Diego for Billy Killian, Akinori Otsuka and Adam Eaton, he was a strong second to Gonzalez, pitching to a 110 ERA+ over five seasons with the Padres. Again, no one lost out by trading for the really tall guy.

And so it was with the other 6'10" major leaguer, Randy Johnson. At no time did Seattle think, "Oh, to have held on to 6'2" Mark Langston!" The Mariners did get decent value when they traded Johnson, about to hit free agency, for John Halama, Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen. But it wasn't equal value, and neither were the heights- Halama at 6'5". Garcia at 6'4" and Guillen just 6'1". (Can't blame them, really- they didn't have the kind of leverage to land a Jon Rauch.)

Believe it or not, the Yankees got the better of their Randy Johnson trade when they acquired him- Brad Halsey, Javier Vazquez and Dioner Navarro did little for the D'backs, not one of them over 6'2"- and got the short end when dealing him back to Arizona two years later for Alberto Gonzalez, Steven Jackson, Ross Ohlendorf and Luis Vizcaino. (Jackson was 6'5" and Ohlendorf 6'4", but both failed to measure up.)

As for the present day, the tallest-player-as-good-luck-charm is present in the person of Kameron Mickolio. A stately 6'9", Mickolio has been involved in two trades. The first saw Mickolio, along with Tony Butler (minors), Adam Jones, George Sherrill and Chris Tillman travel, hopefully with extra leg room, from Seattle to Baltimore in February 2008 in exchange for Erik Bedard. Obviously, Jones has been more valuable to date, but the Mickolio side is well ahead for many reasons on that one. And we'll get to test the theory once again in 2011: Baltimore traded Mickolio last month, along with David Hernandez, to Arizona for Mark Reynolds.

Will the tyranny of the tall hold once more? Or is there something inherent in the Arizona atmosphere that felled Jon Rauch and will do the same to Kameron Mickolio? I can hardly wait for spring training to find out. Tune in next time for analysis of the transactions involving Jumbo Brown and Fat Freddie Fitzsimmons. Working title? Baseball By The Pound.

Jack Of All Trades: Bert Blyleven

By Howard Megdal | January 6, 2011 at 10:29pm CDT

Wednesday's announcement that Bert Blyleven and Roberto Alomar earned election to the Hall of Fame was notable not merely for the successful Internet campaign on Blyleven's behalf or Alomar's overcoming last year's snub. In terms of transactional history, Blyleven and Alomar were part of a combined eight trades – not that common for a Hall of Fame class.

Alomar's deals, particularly the one that sent Alomar and Joe Carter to Toronto for Tony Fernandez and Fred McGriff, have been rehashed many times. But Blyleven's five trades have been as overlooked as his strikeout and shutout totals. That. Ends. Here.

The Minnesota Twins drafted Blyleven in the third round of the 1969 draft, but just 123 innings later, he debuted with the Twins in 1970. He quickly acclimated, pitching to a 119 ERA+ in his rookie season over 164 innings. He got better from there, posting a 132 ERA+ over his first seven seasons, though he had just a 108-101 record to show for it. (Cue his detractors.)

But on June 1, 1976, with Minnesota struggling and Texas at 25-18, the Rangers made a big move, trading Mike Cubbage, Jim Gideon, Bill Singer, Roy Smalley and $250K to Minnesota for Blyleven and utility infielder Danny Thompson. Blyleven was his usual self, pitching 202 1/3 innings after the trade at an ERA+ of 131. Thompson faded away during his final season in the majors. As for the return for Blyleven, the Twins got some solid years at third base from Cubbage, a decent half season from Singer, and Smalley became one of the best-hitting shortstops in baseball for the next half-decade.

Still, had the Rangers held onto Blyleven, he provided more value than the players Minnesota received. But the Rangers were intent on creating one of the most convoluted deals in baseball history on December 8, 1977, and Blyleven played a key role following a stellar 1977 (234 2/3 innings, 151 ERA+). Four teams, eleven players, and a large number of moving companies got involved.

The Rangers received Jon Matlack from the Mets, Nelson Norman and Al Oliver from the Pirates. The Mets received Tom Grieve and Ken Henderson from the Rangers, Willie Montanez from the Braves. The Braves received Tommy Boggs, Adrian Devine and Eddie Miller from the Rangers. The Pirates received John Milner from the Mets and Bert Blyleven from the Rangers.

The cheese stands alone.

So how did these four teams do? Well, the Rangers received just one stellar season from Matlack, whose dominant career was ruined by arm troubles. Al Oliver gave the Rangers four splendid years, with a 130 OPS+. Nelson Norman even chipped in with a season starting at shortstop in 1979. The Mets received little from Montanez, Grieve or Henderson. The Braves got a few below-average years out of Boggs, Devine and Miller. And the Pirates got three solid seasons from Blyleven and three from Milner, before Milner was dealt once again, this time to Montreal – for Montanez.

Thankfully for the sanity of this columnist, the remaining deals in Blyleven's career were the simple, two-team variety. After a bit of a down 1980, the Pirates traded the 29-year-old Blyleven and Manny Sanguillen on December 9, 1980, receiving Gary Alexander, Victor Cruz, Bob Owchinko and Rafael Vasquez from the Cleveland Indians. Once again, Blyleven provided the most value of any player in the deal, this time by a wide margin. Sanguillen never played another game in the majors, and the four players the Pirates received gave Pittsburgh little. Blyleven pitched to a 126 ERA+ over five seasons in Cleveland, even though he missed most of the 1982 season due to injury.

But after a rare season with run support – Blyleven went 19-7 for an Indians team that finished 75-87 – Cleveland decided to trade their aging pitcher, intent on adding young players. On August 1, 1985, the Twins re-acquired Blyleven for Rich Yett, Jay Bell, Curt Wardle and Jim Weaver. Blyleven was solidly above-average in 1985, 1986 and 1987 for the Twins – in that third season, helping Minnesota to a World Series crown with three postseason victories. Meanwhile, Cleveland didn't know what they had in Bell, and received the most production from the group out of Yett, a swingman who started 48 games over four seasons with the Indians, with little success to show for it.

Blyleven slumped badly in 1988, pitching to an ERA+ of just 75. About to turn 38, it appeared this could be it for him, but the Angels thought otherwise. They traded Rob Wassenaar, Mike Cook and Paul Sorrento to Minnesota for Blyleven and Kevin Trudeau. One last time, the team that traded Blyleven regretted it. While Blyleven enjoyed a renaissance at age 38, pitching to a 140 ERA+ over 241 innings, the Twins received nothing from Cook, and even Sorrento enjoyed his eventual success in Cleveland.

There are a few ways to look at the Blyleven deals. One is that while the case against him for the Hall of Fame asserted that he wasn't respected during his playing career, teams repeatedly gave up huge packages of players for Blyleven. And yet, again and again, the team trading Blyleven regretted it, usually immediately. Maybe most obviously, while Blyleven has the Internet to thank in large measure for rallying his Hall of Fame support, it is MLBTradeRumors.com that could have used the Blyleven trades. That four-team deal alone would have been the Helen of Troy of trades: the transaction that launched a thousand posts.

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