Rodriguez May Not Challenge Shorter Suspension
With arbitrator Frederic Horowitz reportedly close to ruling on Alex Rodriguez's 211-game suspension, the embattled Rodriguez is weighing his options on how to proceed if his ban is upheld. He may be willing to forego a legal challenge to the suspension if it is substantially reduced, reports Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com.
A source tells Matthews that the magic number could be around 100 games, with a ban at or above that level making a further fight "likely." Presumably, a reduced suspension could result either from Horowitz's ruling or through negotiations with MLB. Sources told the New York Daily News yesterday that 65 games represented the level at which Rodriguez might be willing to back down.
These reports constitute a softening of the public position of Rodriguez's team, which has previously insisted that any suspension would warrant pursuit of relief in federal court. But if Rodriguez can whittle the ban down to a low enough point, the financial balance (and obvious risk of failure in a difficult legal challenge) could shift in favor of dropping his case.
A ruling on Rodriguez's grievance proceeding could come as soon as Friday, according to Matthews. Of course, the ultimate suspension length promises to have a major impact on the Yankees. New York stands to lose Rodriguez from its lineup, while also saving a big chunk of his sizeable salary, over the term of whatever ban is ultimately arrived upon.
Nyjer Morgan Switches Agents, Weighing MLB Return
33-year-old outfielder Nyjer Morgan has switched agents, moving from Turner Gary Sports to Team One and Millenium Sports, according to a report from ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick. After a strong campaign in Japan last season, Morgan is entertaining offers from both MLB and Japanese clubs.
Six to eight MLB teams have expressed interest in Morgan, new representative Jonathan Maurer tells Crasnick. Morgan last played in MLB in 2012 with the Brewers, when he posted a .239/.302/.308 line in 322 plate appearances. He does have two seasons with a better-than-.750 OPS (2009 and 2011), however, and has spent most of his career in center field. Last season, playing for the Yokohama Bay Stars, Morgan notched a .294/.361/.434 line over 424 plate appearances, including his first double-digit home run season as a professional.
Assessing The Impact Of The Phillies’ New TV Deal
We learned recently that the Phillies had reached agreement with Comcast SportsNet on a 25-year, $2.5 billion TV deal that also grants the club an equity stake and rights to ad revenue. (Though the advertising split is not yet known, that is a somewhat unusual provision that could add significant value, note Matt Gelb and Bob Fernandez of the Philadelphia Inquirer.) The deal, which kicks in for the 2016 season, had long been rumored to be in the works.
The new, $100MM average annual revenue stream certainly promises to provide a boost over the $35MM average the club enjoyed under its previous deal. But the cash flow will not jump to nine figures overnight: by my calculations, with somewhere between a 3 and 4% annual bump built into the deal, the Phils will start out drawing something in the realm of $65MM for 2016. (And, of course, the future revenue streams must be discounted in assessing their present value, though that fact is equally true of other teams' deals.)
Comparing the $100MM average across the league, Philadelphia's deal seemingly places it in roughly the position that was expected for the size of its market. (Click here for an earlier update from Wendy Thurm of Fangraphs on league-wide TV deals.) When factoring in revenue, equity, and other components, the Philadelphia pact falls in the realm of the Rangers' and Angels' recent deals, according to Maury Brown of Forbes. Thurm tweets that the terms are "in line" with expectations given the market size, while noting that the MLB franchises in Los Angeles, New York, and Boston all have greater packages when network equity is accounted for. (Twitter links.) Gelb and Fernandez call the deal "commensurate with recent packages across baseball."
Ultimately, however, the deal does not appear to provide a basis for a serious leap in the club's current or future payroll as against the rest of the league's well-off franchises. As Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News wrote just over two months ago, it seemed possible that the new deal would boost the previous $35MM annual revenue figure to over $200MM per year, with an annual figure above $150MM "highly probable." Those kinds of numbers would have outpaced other recent TV contracts.
Though Lawrence acknowledged that predicting deals based on recent comparables constituted "guesswork," his earlier discussion indicates that the Phils did not ultimately break new ground with their deal. In other words, it does not appear that Philadelphia landed the "Dodgers-esque" deal that some observers thought possible — at least in terms of impact on relative spending capacity. With the club's ratings dropping a remarkable 40% in each of the last two seasons, going from first in the game to seventh in the process, one can't help but wonder what impact the team's on-field downturn may have had on negotiations.
Depending upon one's perspective, then, the deal could be seen as something of a disappointment. But there is value in holding serve, especially with some predicting a looming bubble. It could be that the run-up in the TV deal market is at an end, and at a minimum the Phillies appear to have secured their market position as one of the league's top spenders.
As Lawrence reports, the team seems to be characterizing the deal as a continuation of its current trajectory. According to team president David Montgomery:
"[The new contract] might not represent quite a significant change as what occurred in other markets. But we continue to believe, thanks to the tremendous fan support, that we'll continue to be one of the top five clubs in payroll each year. … But, as we proved last year, payroll alone doesn't guarantee success. We want to focus on making the best player decisions possible."
Montgomery echoed those comments in explaining that the club's payroll was not expected to undergo major changes, as Gelb reports:
"I don't see us going any higher than where we've been. For us, the secret is to spend it well, not necessarily tied to how much. Since we moved in here, we have been able to be a club that is substantial in its payroll. I assume we will continue to be in the top four or five of the game. Hopefully we'll make some good decisions and people will see an improved club in 2014. That's what we believe."
Indeed, as those comments would indicate, Philly has pursued a strategy of fairly measured offseason spending. While time will tell how the new TV deal impacts the Phillies and the broader market, the early indication is that it will not provide a dramatic new infusion of cash into the marketplace, but will allow Philadelphia to retain its foothold amongst the more financially flexible MLB clubs.
Minor Moves: Brandon Wood, Eric Farris, Conrad
We'll keep track of today's notable minor moves here …
- Rounding out a trio of infield depth signings, the Padres have inked Brandon Wood to a minor league deal with no Spring Training invite, according to Corey Brock of MLB.com (via Twitter). The 28-year-old last saw MLB action in 2011. Playing in the Royals and Orioles systems at the Triple-A level last year, Wood .226/.262/.329 line in 252 plate appearances.
- The Twins have re-signed infielder Eric Farris to a minor league deal without an invite to Spring Training, Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDIsh.com tweeted yesterday. Farris, who will turn 28 before the start of the year, has seen very limited MLB action in his career. He registered a .249/.303/.313 line in 452 plate appearances last year across the Double-A and Triple-A levels.
- The Padres have signed infielder Brooks Conrad to a minor league deal that does not include a Spring Training invite, reports FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter). Conrad signed on with the Hanshin Tigers after a tough 2012 MLB campaign, but things failed to pan out in Japan for the soon-to-be 34-year-old. In just 69 plate appearances for Hanshin, Conrad posted a .175/.319/.281 triple-slash.
- You can keep track of any players currently in DFA limbo via MLBTR's DFA Tracker. Three players are still awaiting a final disposition: Santos Rodriguez (White Sox),Rafael Ortega (Rangers), and Adys Portillo (Padres).
AL East Notes: Orioles, Yankees
We'll kick off the first weekend of 2014 with a few quick AL East notes …
- The Orioles have had trade discussions with the Mets involving not only Ike Davis, but also Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda, reports Educardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun. But, as we learned already with regard to Davis, the talks never gained much traction given the Mets' focus on picking up a top young arm from the Orioles' system.
- Baltimore's first priority is adding starting pitching, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, taking precedence over the search for a DH and the possibility of adding a reliever. The O's are not shopping at the top end of that market, however. Meanwhile, the club's interest in Kendrys Morales is "waning," Kubatko senses. When asked whether the Baltimore roster was good enough to challenge for the post-season as presently constructed, executive VP Dan Duquette walked cautiously: "I think we have more work to do to accomplish that, but we're making progress. We added a couple left-handed hitters and there are some opportunities to help our pitching staff."
- Looking forward, the Yankees have six deals on the books that are likely to prove a burden, opines Brendan Kuty of NJ.com. The list (with remaining guaranteed years and money): Alex Rodriguez (four years, $90MM), Mark Teixeira (three years, $69.375MM), Ichiro Suzuki (1 year, $6.5MM), C.C. Sabathia (three years, $71MM), Jacoby Ellsbury (7 years, $153MM), and Derek Jeter (1 year, $12MM). Of course, each of these contract situations carries different kinds of concerns. Three are somewhat unsurprisingly problematic back-ends of long-term deals, though there is still some hope that the Yanks will get some value out of the remainder of those contracts. Two appear to be fairly substantial short-term drains for an organization that hoped to get under the luxury tax threshhold, but otherwise will not impact finances past 2014. And one is a freshly-inked long-term contract that could become a problem in the future — much in the way the earlier Rodriguez, Teixeira, and Sabathia contracts have shaken out of late — but which was presumably necessary to lure a top-tier talent to the Bronx.
Minor Moves: Gillespie, Palmer, Ramirez, Blackley, Morgan
Here are some minor moves to pass on …
- The Mariners announced three minor league signings that come with MLB Spring Training invites. Outfielder Cole Gillespie, along with righties Matt Palmer and Ramon Ramirez, will try to impress the Seattle brass in Peoria, AZ. All three players have seen MLB action, though only Ramirez (3.42 ERA in 433 2/3 innings as a reliever) has a history as a big league regular.
- Angels minor league backstop Carlos Ramirez has received a 100 game ban for his third positive test for a "drug of abuse," MLB announced. The 25-year-old has yet to see time above Double-A, and has largely failed to hit in three stints at that level.
- Two former big leaguers experienced status changes in December with regard to their current careers in Japan. Southpaw Travis Blackley reached terms on a one-year deal with the Rakuten Golden Eagles after spending most of last year in the Astros pen, while outfielder Nyjer Morgan has become a free agent after a productive first season with the Yokohama Bay Stars. (All information courtesy of Nikkan Sports, via Yakyu Baka.)
- You can keep track of any players currently in DFA limbo via MLBTR's DFA Tracker. Three players currently await a final disposition: Santos Rodriguez (White Sox), Rafael Ortega (Rangers), and Adys Portillo (Padres).
Rays Claim Pedro Figueroa Off Waivers From Athletics
The Rays have claimed lefty Pedro Figueroa off of release waivers from the Athletics, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The 28-year-old reliever had spent his entire career in the Oakland organization.
Figueroa spent most of the last two seasons throwing at Triple-A, where he compiled a 2.62 ERA in 44 2/3 innings in 2012. That earned him a shot at 19 big league appearances, over which he managed a 3.32 ERA. But Figueroa saw his ERA rise to a 4.10 mark in 59 1/3 innings last year in the upper minors and was bombed in just five MLB outings. The native Dominican suffered a spike in walks (from 3.6 BB/9 to 5.0 BB/9) and became easier to hit (7.1 H/9 against 8.6 H/9) across his two Triple-A campaigns.
AL Notes: Drew, Williams, Carson
Let's take a look at a few American League notes:
- A return of shortstop Stephen Drew to Red Sox seems more and more likely with each passing day, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. Most of his potential landing spots appear to have alternative, in-house options that make it hard to justify a big contract and the sacrifice of a draft pick, says MacPherson: the Mets have Ruben Tejada, the Pirates have Jordy Mercer, the Twins have Pedro Florimon, and the Yankees have Derek Jeter.
- Former Angels swingman Jerome Williams expects to field offers over the next week or two, reports MLBTR's Zach Links, after having already received a few offers during the Winter Meetings. Primary interest in Williams has come from clubs in the AL West and Central. (Links to Twitter.) Williams was non-tendered when the Halos decided they did not want to pay a projected $3.9MM arbitration price tag, though we heard recently that he is expected to beat that figure on the open market.
- After being claimed off of waivers by the Angels in mid-October, southpaw reliever Robert Carson will look to harness his big arm and make a run at a MLB relief role, Mike DiGiovanna writes for Baseball America (subscription required). The club likes his live arm and makeup, according to farm director Bobby Scales, leading DiGiovanna to suggest that Carson could follow the path of Dane De La Rosa in combining raw ability with a change of scenery to have a big league impact for the Halos.
Latest On Masahiro Tanaka
The market's most intriguing name, Masahiro Tanaka, will undoubtedly continue to generate ample speculation, rumors, and discussion until he chooses a destination. Here are today's notes on the former Rakuten ace, including multiple accounts that tilt towards a reunion in Seattle with Hisashi Iwakuma, who once fronted the rotation of the Golden Eagles alongside Tanaka:
- Competing executives view the Mariners as a real threat to land Tanaka, tweets ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. The industry perception, says Stark, is that Seattle can make one more big splash to accompany its signing of Robinson Cano.
- Based on his own conversations with industry sources, Baseball America's Ben Badler agrees that Seattle is the odds-on favorite amongst the ten most likely landing spots. Badler believes that the team has the strongest blend of need and available cash with respect to Tanaka. The other top contenders for Tanaka are the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs, says Badler, while the Tigers figure as a "sleeper" team and "lurkers" include the Rangers, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, and Angels
- Looking at things from the perspective of need, rather than handicapping the results of the market, Seattle again comes out in the lead, according to Dave Szymborski of ESPN.com (Insider piece). Adding Tanaka could be the best way for the Mariners to build towards the approximately ten WAR that the club still needs to add to be a full-blown threat in a reloaded AL West, Szymborski says. Other teams that could most use the 25-year-old Japanese hurler include the Phillies and Orioles.
- Attempting to find comparable players for Tanaka, Fangraphs' Dave Cameron argues that his upside may not come with a sufficient floor to justify a nine-figure investment. Given Tanaka's anticipated blend of low walk, average strikeout, and high groundball rates, says Cameron, reasonable expectations should perhaps be that he'll be above average but not great. While a series of attractive starters have thrived with Tanaka's skillset, Cameron explains, there are plenty of other potential comparables who would never receive those kinds of dollars.
Brett Pill Reaches Agreement With KIA Tigers
JANUARY 2, 1:30pm: Pill has passed his physical and been placed on release waivers by the Giants, tweets John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.
DECEMBER 21, 7:46pm: Dan Kurtz of MyKBO tweets that KIA's press release says Pill will receive a $50K signing bonus and a $250K salary.
7:15pm: The Giants have announced the deal, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). Schulman tweets that Pill will remain on the Giants' 40-man roster until the deal is finalized. Pill must pass a physical. Kurtz (Twitter link) reports that the Tigers have also announced the agreement.
8:54am: 29-year-old first baseman Brett Pill has reached agreement on contract terms with the KIA Tigers of the Korean Baseball Organization, reports Kurtz (via Twitter). The Giants had previously agreed to send Pill to the Gwangju-based Tigers for a transfer fee of around $500K, if agreement could be reached between Pill and his prospective new club.
The minor league veteran has posted strong power and on-base numbers for several years running at Triple-A, including a stellar .344/.379/.630 line with 18 home runs in 289 plate appearances last season. Pill was less productive at the MLB level, with a career .233/.279/.404 line, and his increased K% and lower BABIP could point to difficulties in handling big league pitching. On the other hand, he has seen just 259 plate appearances spread over three seasons. The Oliver and Steamer projection systems (via Fangraphs) both see Pill as a roughly league-average hitter in the bigs in 2014.
While his power remains intriguing, Pill's offensive and positional limitations drag down his attractiveness to MLB clubs. Blocked at his natural first base in the Giants' organization, Pill had apparently failed to transition successfully to another position. Already on the downslope of the aging curve, Pill's pop was apparently not enough to entice a big league team to give him a roster spot.