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Brewers Interested In Mackowiak

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According to the Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzales, the Brewers have an interest in White Sox utility man Rob Mackowiak.  The White Sox don’t have a lot of room in the outfield for the 30 year-old Oak Lawn native.

Gonzales writes that the Brew Crew would use Mackowiak mainly as a backup at second and third, and may be offering Brady Clark.  Clark doesn’t constitute an upgrade for the Sox, so the clubs would have to keep working to find a fit.  GMs Doug Melvin and Kenny Williams pulled off a major deal in December of 2004 in the Carlos Lee/Scott Podsednik swap.

The Brewers have a fantastic long-term solution at third base in Ryan Braun, if he can only learn to play credible defense.   

Red Sox Scouting Turnbow?

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My apologies for the lack of posts today; I had an all-day fantasy draft.  Back to trade rumors: Adam McCalvy of MLB.com had several Brewers ones in today’s article.

To begin with, 26 year-old righty starter Ben Hendrickson cleared waivers and was sent to Triple A.  He was angry about it, perhaps because he had a 2.45 ERA in five appearances this spring.  Apparently the Nationals and Padres are interested, and both the Brewers and Hendrickson look forward to a trade.  According to Baseball America, Hendrickson has a plus curve and an 88-91 fastball.  He may be a Quad-A type player; PECOTA sees a 5.00 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 109 innings.

The Red Sox had a scout watching Derrick Turnbow on Friday, though Doug Melvin says he’s not shopping the reliever.  Maybe Sox pitching coach John Farrell can fix Turnbow’s walk problem, but it’s a long shot.  Turnbow has two years and $5.5MM left on his contract.  While that extension was ill-advised, it’s not nearly as bad as the Cubs giving Ryan Dempster three years and $15.5MM.  In both cases, fairly small samples of decent control were taken as permanent and rewarded.

McCalvy also mentioned a "lunchroom rumor" that had the Padres looking at Brady Clark. Melvin said he hasn’t heard from the club.  The Crew would love to shed Clark’s $3.8MM salary.      

2007 Milwaukee Brewers

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Brew Crew time!  Let’s check out everyone’s favorite "sleeper" pick for this year.  I should give a shoutout to the two best Brewers blogs, Brew Crew Ball and Al’s Ramblings.  Both were instrumental in this estimate of the 25-man roster.

Doug Melvin’s contract obligations:

C – Johnny Estrada – $3.4MM + incentives
C – Damian Miller – $2.75MM
1B – Prince Fielder – $0.415MM
2B – Rickie Weeks – $1.22MM (estimated)
SS – J.J. Hardy – $0.38MM
3B – Tony Graffanino – $3.25MM/Craig Counsell – $2.8MM
LF – Geoff Jenkins – $7MM
CF – Bill Hall – $3MM
RF – Corey Hart – $0.38MM
OF – Brady Clark – $3.8MM
OF – Kevin Mench – $3.4MM
OF – Gabe Gross – $0.38MM

SP – Ben Sheets – $10MM
SP – Jeff Suppan – $6MM + $0.25MM signing bonus = $6.25MM
SP – Chris Capuano – $3.25MM
SP – Claudio Vargas – $2.5MM
SP – Dave Bush – $0.38MM

RP – Francisco Cordero – $5MM
RP – Derrick Turnbow – $2.3MM + incentives
RP – Brian Shouse – $0.975MM
RP – Matt Wise – $1MM
RP – Jose Capellan – $0.38MM
RP – Greg Aquino – $0.38MM
RP – Carlos Villanueva – $0.38MM

Injured/Minors:

3B – Corey Koskie – $2MM (post-concussion syndrome)
3B – Ryan Braun – $0.38MM
3B – Vinnie Rottino – $0.38MM
RP – Grant Balfour – $0.415MM
SP – Yovani Gallardo – $0.38MM

It’s about $62MM worth of players, up about $5 mil from Opening Day last year.  The payroll has been managed well, and I think management would be willing to make a midseason trade to put the team over the hump.

The middle infield combo just needs to stay healthy for a full season; no one doubts their ability to hit.  Because of the injury possibility, the Crew went out and got Counsell this winter.  They might not have wanted Graffanino to accept arbitration, but he gives them depth to cover third base until Ryan Braun is ready.  Braun has a robust PECOTA forecast of .283/.341/.504.  He should be up by May if he sore elbow is OK.  Koskie, meanwhile, is nowhere near game ready and may never be. It’s not a particularly impressive defensive infield, but the bats should compensate.

The outfield will have Hall and Hart as full-timers.  I’ve currently got six outfielders listed for the Brewers, but a trade of Mench seems in the cards.  That’d clear left field for Jenkins, leave Clark as the CF backup, and open a spot for Gross to make the team.  The division has all sorts of virgin CFs in Hall, Alfonso Soriano, and Chris Burke.  Griffey might move to right, also.   

The Brewers had a poor offense last year.  They’ll get more out of the catcher spot with Estrada, a step forward from Fielder, and a slight downgrade in left compared to Carlos Lee.  A big year from Hart plus a healthy middle infield would move the offense toward the middle of the pack.

The rotation is set, and a major strength.  Sheets will be one of baseball’s best if he’s healthy, and he’s looked good so far.  The team isn’t completely screwed if he goes down – Carlos Villanueva and Yovani Gallardo can step in admirably.  Gallardo doesn’t get a ton of hype, but his PECOTA calls for a 3.92 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 141 innings as a rookie.  That’s ROY material. 

The bullpen was lousy last year.  It can’t help but improve with the subtractions of Dan Kolb, Geremi Gonzalez, Zach Jackson, Jorge de la Rosa, and Dana Eveland.  A full season of Cordero and a shorter leash for Turnbow should also help.

The Brewers have a good chance of winning the NL Central on the strength of their starting rotation.  If the offense comes together, a core of Fielder/Weeks/Hardy/Braun/Hall/Hart could be above average.  If anything is missing by July, a major trade and the promotion of Gallardo could push them into the playoffs.

Brewers Sign Jeff Suppan

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The Brewers have added righty Jeff Suppan to their rotation at a cost of four years, $42MM.  There’s a club option for 2011.  So much for waiting out Zito.  You can read the press release here.

This is may be the best rotation in the NL Central:

Ben Sheets
Chris Capuano
Dave Bush
Jeff Suppan
Claudio Vargas

Oddly, I am projecting Suppan to be the worst pitcher on the staff.  Overall I expect a 3.95 ERA from these five.

Mets Visit Jeff Suppan, Brewers Make Offer

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It’s old news at this point, but I should mention that the Mets visited with free agent starter Jeff Suppan and his agent in California yesterday morning.

Suppan is the backup plan for teams like the Mets and Giants, one of which won’t get Barry Zito.  A few small-market clubs who can’t afford Zito hope to swoop in and snag Suppan as well.  Also, I forgot to write a soup-related pun so please feel free to do that in the comments.  Have we seen "No Soup For You!" as a headline yet?  Suppan should spurn some team so we can watch sixteen newspapers say that. 

UPDATE: Cheese Soup?  Seriously, that is well done.

Brewers To Make Suppan An Offer

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According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the Brewers will be putting together a proposal for free agent starter Jeff Suppan.  I have heard from a source that the offer could be $33MM for three years plus a fourth year option.  The Crew currently has Sheets, Capuano, Bush, and Vargas in the rotation.  I think that’s quite solid if healthy.

The article also mentions the Giants, Mets, Rockies, Pirates, and Royals as suitors.  And don’t forget the Cards, who could still re-sign him.  I’ve heard that the Bucs only want to go two years on Suppan, offering a higher annual average value.

Jon Lieber Action

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You know it’s a rough year for pitching when Jon Lieber is a hot commodity.  I kid – he’s not that bad.  Liebs turns 37 next April, and figures to be the most expendable of Philly’s six starters.  He’ll make $7.5MM in 2007.

Home runs and hits got the best of Lieber last year, though his command remained elite.  He had a 4.93 ERA overall, but can probably pitch at his second half level (4.53).

The Pirates wanted to bring him back, perhaps hoping they could right the wrong of trading him to the Cubs for Brant Brown.  However, John Perrotto tells us that interest has cooled because the Phillies asked for Salomon Torres.  Seems like a fair deal to me.

Joe Strauss wrote last week that the Cards could pursue Lieber, just as they did at the trading deadline.  For all of Walt Jocketty’s posturing, the team needs one starter.  Not sure if any talks are going on here.

A week ago, the Phils had a deal in place to send Lieber to Milwaukee for Kevin Mench and Derrick Turnbow.  However, talks dried up two days later.  Jim Salisbury threw Texas’s hat into the ring in the same article.  The Rangers were another team trying to trade for him in July.

Speaking of last July, the Mets wanted in at that point too.

Early Evening Rumors

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Rosenthal has dollar amounts for the Greg Maddux deal: the Padres will pay him $10M in 2007, with a player option for 2008.  The option starts at $6M, but if Maddux reaches various plateaus, the option could increase in value to another $10M.

The Arlington Daily-Herald speculates that a Kevin Mench for Jon Lieber deal could be evened out by the Brewers sending along Jose Capellan.  Capellan hasn’t lived up to his potential yet, but he’s still young enough that he could develop into a top-tier setup man.  I’d be very surprised (not to mention disappointed) if Doug Melvin made that deal without getting something else of value in return.

According to Rotoworld, the Mets have offered Julio Lugo $36 million over four years, but Steve Phillips believes the Red Sox will sign him.   Theo Epstein was quoted earlier today saying that Dustin Pedroia could be his opening day shortstop, but it’s hard to believe the Red Sox won’t find some way to upgrade at least one of their middle infield spots.

By Jeff Sackmann, Brew Crew Ball

Machinations for Mench

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There’s been surprising interest in Kevin Mench, according to Doug Melvin, and one of the teams who are known to be looking at the right-handed outfielder is the Philadelphia Phillies.  One deal that was rumored a few weeks ago was Aaron Rowand for Mench and, perhaps, Damian Miller.  The money is about even and Melvin seems to think he needs a proven center fielder, so that seemed plausible, but the Brewers may have balked at including Miller.

So this is interesting: the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (perhaps optimistically) speculates that Mench could be part of a deal for Jon Lieber.  If speculation can lend credence to other speculation, here’s some: the Philadelphia Inquirer mentions that the Phillies could deal Rowand to the White Sox for one of Chicago’s surplus starters, freeing up Lieber for a different deal. 

This all makes plenty of sense: it’s essentially a three-way trade in which the White Sox get the CF they want and make room in the rotation for Brandon McCarthy; the Phillies get the corner bat they want, improve the rotation, and open up center for Shane Victorino; and the Brewers take on a bit of payroll (which they have room for, a least a few million’s worth) and fill their one need at the meetings: a mid-rotation starter to take the pressure off of some combination of Claudio Vargas, Carlos Villanueva, and Zach Jackson.

By Jeff Sackmann, Brew Crew Ball

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