Baseball Digest Daily reports that the Brewers have inked Craig Counsell to a two-year deal with a club option for 2009.
Did Doug Melvin really put out this kind of commitment to a utility infielder? Counsell could see a lot of playing time if Rickie Weeks or J.J. Hardy fall out of favor or are hurt again. Hardy in particular will see his playing time drop.
Looks like the Yankees won the bidding to negotiate with Japanese lefty Kei Igawa for $25 million. It was only a matter of time before Cashman threw some money around.
In other news, the Brewers are closing in on a deal with Craig Counsell. (I’m not a fan: once around was enough for me.) That’s right on the heels of hearing that Counsell was destined for San Diego; now, it would seem that Counsell’s original deal–two years of playing second base for the Padres–now will go to Tony Graffanino, who Doug Melvin had wanted to bring back to Milwaukee as a utility guy. The Brewers also resigned Brian Shouse, who was eligible for arbitration.
By Jeff Sackmann
Doug Davis was known to be on the trading block…Johnny Estrada was known to be on the trading block…but I don’t think anybody expected the two of them to switch places.
The Brewers traded Davis, lefty starter Dana Eveland, and center fielder-with-an-attitude Dave Krynzel to the Diamondbacks for Estrada, starter Claudio Vargas, and reliever Greg Aquino. It’s an interesting move for the Crew: apparently Doug Melvin wasn’t comfortable going into spring training with Damian Miller as his starter and Mike Rivera and JD Closser as possible backups. Estrada will, presumably, split time with Miller.
The fascinating part of the deal to me is the pitching swap. Melvin likes to build his bullpens creatively, and it would’ve shocked me if he didn’t pick up at least one high-upside arm like Aquino before March. And both teams gain some years of cheap pitching: the Brewers replace Davis with Vargas, who they’ll have under their control for three more years. Vargas slides into Davis’s rotation spot. Eveland only has about a year of service time, so if he pans out, the D-Backs get him for five more years.
UPDATE: I’ve posted a little more analysis of the deal at my Brewers blog, along with some quotes from Doug Melvin on his three new acquisitions.
By Jeff Sackmann
It looks like Dave Roberts is going to be a Giant. This will save San Francisco fans from self-immolation over their front office’s apparent inability to make stupid deals, and ensure that the Giants theme of "oldsters in the outfield" remains intact even with Steve Finley and possibly Barry Bonds on their way out.
In other news: Woody Williams got a two-year deal with the Astros for $12.5M. That seems remarkably sane, though I wouldn’t plan on drafting Woody for your fantasy team. He had an okay year in Petco, but he’s moving to one of the unfriendliest parks in baseball for pitching. If the short porch in left is going to do wonders for Carlos Lee, it’s going to hurt Williams nearly as much.
Phil Rogers offers a plethora of random thoughts: the Cubs want to move Jacque Jones; Jones or Geoff Jenkins would be an improvement for the White Sox (so he says); and the Sox could send Scott Podsednik and Juan Uribe to San Fran for Omar Vizquel (much less likely after the Roberts signing, I’d imagine). Emphasis on "could": he’s obviously just making stuff up.
Speaking of making stuff up: now that most of the center fielders out there have found homes, it’s time for the second basemen to start falling into place. There’s been more news lately of Adam Kennedy, who is likely to land in St. Louis, or possibly Toronto. The market for Kennedy, Ronnie Belliard, and others may depend on whether Julio Lugo and/or Ray Durham end up as outfielders, which would shrink the market for those teams who need second basemen.
By Jeff Sackmann
Tim sends his best from Cancun and wishes everyone was with him.
Not!
They are still trying to find their honeymoon hotel so he’s not quite sure when he’ll be back. And, no, he didn’t send any Cancun beach shots. Dang..
Speaking about vacations, how about the Astros signing Lee at $100m/6? Wow. My take is this – the power starved Astros obviously felt they were one player away and Lee happened to be available. He’ll probably hit 40 home runs despite all the talk about his lack of power after April last year. Don’t forget Minute Maid is full of hot air.
The Astros also jumped on Woody Williams at $12.5/2. I suppose this is a message to Astros fans that Pupura doesn’t expect the Rocket to resign. Just a guess. At 40-years old, Williams is a huge risk of course.
The Rangers signed Frank Catalanotto to a $13.5m/3 year deal today too. Dan Szymborwski at the Baseball Think Factory believes it is a solid deal for the Rangers, and I agree.
MLBTR’s reader eeleye99 was kind enough to offer up that the Blue Jays are reportedly ready to sign Rod Barajas as their every day receiver around $6m/2. Nice catch eeleye99 – thanks.
Another MLBTR reader – Rayman, found that Dave Roberts is reportedly picking the Giants over the Brewers. Kudo’s for the find Rayman.
At The Plate has started compiling all the teams top 10 prospects by publication. They have done a great job of this for several years now. You might want to bookmark the site.
Bucco Blog has indicated that the most sought out pitcher on the Pirates staff this winter has been southpaw Tom Gorzelanny. There have been rumors that the Braves wanted Gorzelanny and Maholm for LaRoche, and today Tracy Ringolsby, the award winning columnist of the Rocky Mountain News, has indicated that a Rockies Brad Hawpe trade has been discussed with the Pirates who will only give up Maholm. I assume they also want Gorzelanny in any package. I love Tracy’s writing – the guy is flat out kewl.
Interestingly, Ringolsby is also reporting in that article that agents are complaining that the Rockies didn’t offer enough to Francis in his latest $13.5/4 year deal. I suppose the agents had to find a way to say the "C" word this year, despite the soaring value of contracts so far.
Have you ever read the The Carbolic Smoke Ball blog? OMG – it is Hilllll ar ious.
By Jake at Bucco Blog
Happy Thanksgiving from MLB Trade Rumors!
Grab your shopping list — Bucco Blog has posted the Pirates top 10 prospect list.
I initially thought one of the collateral consequences of the increased market value of players this year would be that arbitration values would go up over the next few years, but Jim Callis at Baseball America said he doesn’t think that will happen since arbitration contracts are compared to people with similar service time. Interesting.
Did anyone else see ProTrade’s reaction to the 2006 MVP awards? Talk about blowing out the industry – whew!
USA Today has a couple of nice articles — on the Royals rebuilding plans and the other on the Brewers potential to return to respectability.
Will Steinbrenner’s potential desire to name son-in-law Steve Swindal as the next CEO be sidetracked with Swindal becoming the next operator of the New York’s three major thoroughbred racetracks — Aqueduct, Belmont Park and Saratoga?
By Jake
Rodrigo Lopez has been on the trading block for what seems like years. And anyone who has taken the time to count the Brewers outfielders know that some of them–including Kevin Mench and Geoff Jenkins–will be on the block this offseason. So, it’s only logical that the Brewers and Orioles have chatted about Lopez for Mench.
I wrote about Lopez in a post on my blog when it was first reported that the Brewers had inquired after him–he had a disastrous year last year, posting a 5.90 ERA, but he’s not too old, he’s been a reliable innings eater, and he has had a couple of decent years pitching in the brutal AL East. A switch to the NL Central, with a steady diet of the Pirates and Astros, could do wonders for his fantasy value.
Contract-wise, the deal makes sense: both are entering their final year of arbitration, and both are coming off of years that could make a case for non-tenders. Rosenthal points out in the article that having Lopez would free up the Brewers to trade Doug Davis, another innings eater coming off a so-so year. Their contract situations are the same, but Davis probably has more trade value than Lopez (if only because Davis’s ERA wasn’t near 6 last year).
Posted by Jeff Sackmann
Let’s give the Brew Crew some attention in our next 2007 Team Outlook. I have to give a nod to Brew Crew Ball, the best blog for this club. I definitely read up there before working on this post.
Doug Melvin’s contract obligations:
C – Damian Miller – $2.75MM
C – Mike Rivera – $0.38MM
1B – Prince Fielder – $0.38MM
2B – Rickie Weeks – $2MM
SS – J.J. Hardy – $3.5MM
3B – Corey Koskie – $2MM
IF –
LF – Bill Hall – $0.42MM
CF – Tony Gwynn Jr. – $0.38MM/Gabe Gross – $0.38MM
RF – Corey Hart – $0.38MM/Geoff Jenkins – $7MM
OF – Kevin Mench – $2.8MM
OF – Brady Clark – $3.8MM
SP – Ben Sheets – $10MM
SP – Chris Capuano – $0.45MM
SP – Dave Bush – $0.38MM
SP – Doug Davis – $2.7MM
SP – Carlos Villanueva – $0.38MM
SP – Dana Eveland – $0.38MM
SP – Yovani Gallardo – $0.38MM
RP – Francisco Cordero – $5.4MM
RP – Jose Capellan – $0.38MM
RP – Derrick Turnbow – $2.3MM
RP – Brian Shouse – $0.775MM
RP – Matt Wise – $1MM
RP – Chris Spurling – $0.38MM
RP – Grant Balfour – $0.38MM
The Brewers have roughly $54MM committed before arbitration raises go to Mench, Davis, Capuano, Hall, and Shouse. Word is that the team will push payroll past the $60MM mark. Hopefully that means $70MM, because they could reach $60 mil with the raises. Of course, guys like Mench, Davis, and Jenkins could be traded this winter to free up money. Team owner Mark Attanasio is looking for a "$10 million puzzle piece."
The catching situation looks set. Yes, Miller slipped drastically in the second half, but Rivera was a capable backup in ’06.
Don’t forget that Fielder will be just 23 next year. There’s a good chance he will improve on his solid rookie showing of .271/.347/.483. Similarly, Weeks will be 24 and more power should develop.
One key to success will be healthy years from Weeks, Koskie, and Hardy. When one is hurt, Hall must move back to the infield and a lesser player will occupy a corner. Hardy is still young and his ankle should be fine for spring. Koskie hit pretty well before his concussion in July.
Another fun situation is that Milwaukee has seven outfielders. Seriously. Seven. However, three of those guys are overpaid and/or undesirable: Jenkins, Mench, and Clark. Clark should stay on as a fourth outfielder. Melvin will do everything he can to trade Jenkins this winter. Just eat half his salary and get him out of there.
Do you even offer Mench arbitration? A major piece of the Carlos Lee trade, Mench was terrible after joining the Brewers. He still stands to make $3MM or more next year. Tough call here. If Hart and Hall are to occupy the corners, there’s no room for Mench.
Gross, Gwynn Jr., Hall, Hart, and Laynce Nix all saw time in CF in 2006. It appears that Gwynn is the favorite after hitting .300/.360/.396 in 112 Triple A games. I’d prefer Gross, personally, if his defense would hold up.
The pitching rotation is deep, though if I had to guess that’s where this "$10 million puzzle piece" would come into play. Davis is after a three-year deal to compensate for his better years, which are behind him.
If Davis stays and Sheets remains healthy, only one spot is available. That will initially go to a fifth-starterish guy like Villanueva. Maybe Eveland joins the ’pen in that case.
The fifth starter would just be a placeholder for Gallardo, who took a huge leap to eat Double A for breakfast. Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein named Gallardo the sixth-best right-handed starting pitching prospect in the game, citing three plus pitches. Will Inman is also very promising.
The back end of the bullpen will again be assembled from minor league free agents and whatever spare parts Melvin can dig up. He’s adept at this, so it should be a solid group.
Brew Crew Ball names some minor league free agents that Melvin could pursue for the bullpen or perhaps a bench spot.
It’s going to be a fun offseason of trading in Milwaukee. This is a team with a lot of promise that could easily take the Central Division if they can keep guys healthy and expel some veterans. Despite the promise of more spending, I don’t really see a glaring need with this club.
Breaking news from ESPN’s Keith Law:
"The Milwaukee Brewers are trading slugger Carlos Lee to the Texas Rangers as part of a multi-player deal, ESPN.com learned Friday.
The Brewers are sending Lee, minor-league outfield prospect Nelson Cruz and a player to be named later to the Rangers for relief pitcher Francisco Cordero and outfielders Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix."
Initial opinion: Jon Daniels got the best of Doug Melvin here. Daniels gets a player comparable to Mench in Cruz, only cheaper. He adds a huge addition to the middle of the lineup for the stretch run in Lee. Mench is at a crossroads, Cordero is really just an OK 31 year-old reliever with saves under his belt, and Nix has been long on promise but short on results. It seems that Melvin is trying to stay competitive and get some players for the future for Lee at the same time, so Brewers fans have to respect that.
Interesting side note: according to Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Mench’s most comparable player is Carlos Lee. I wonder how often a player has been traded for the player most similar to him?
I’ll have fantasy analysis of the trade on RotoAuthority sometime this afternoon.
Doug Melvin, who I think is one of the game’s better GMs, is currently fielding offers for Carlos Lee. According to Ken Rosenthal, Melvin recently offered a four-year, $48MM contract to the slugger, which was immediately rejected.
A source close to Lee tells me that he had planned to come to Chicago on yesterday’s off-day (he owns a house there), but was instructed by his agent and Milwaukee management to sit tight in because he’s close to being traded. Lee mentioned that the Cubs are his number one choice in the offseason.
ESPN’s Jayson Stark indicated that the Twins are definitely an interested party. The Twins have plenty of young pitching depth, so the teams could definitely match up if Terry Ryan is willing. The Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, and Mariners could also come into play.
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