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Author: Tim Dierkes

MLB Mailbag: Braves Extensions, Injury Concerns, Rangers, Pirates

By | at March 25, 2026 10:59pm CDT

Happy Opening Night!  Logan Webb and the Giants will host Max Fried and the Yankees at 7:05pm central tonight on Netflix.  Until then, we've got a subscriber mailbag that gets into the Braves' series of core player extensions, which teams have the most concerning injury issues, outlooks for the Rangers and Pirates, and much more.

Matthew asks:

As a Mets fan, several years ago all I heard was how the Braves had built the foundation of their next dynasty by convincing multiple players to sign seemingly below-market deals. Acuña, Albies, Murphy, Riley, Olson, Harris, and probably several others I'm forgetting.

Obviously the team was besieged by injuries when they missed the playoffs last year, but looking back now, how are those contracts holding up? Albies and Riley have regressed, Harris was a tale of two halves last year, Acuña is coming off two serious knee injuries, and Murphy's banner year looks like an outlier.

Giving Acuña a pass because injuries are unpredictable (and he's still an MVP candidate when healthy), are there any of these contracts that you think AA would like a do-over on? Or, since they were seen as being below-market rates, are they still showing positive value?

Alex Anthopoulos has sat atop the Braves' front office for more than eight years now.  He's done a whopping 21 extensions in that time.

The biggest extension went to Austin Riley, who signed for $212MM over ten years.  Had the Braves not done this deal, Riley would've been a free agent this past offseason, theoretically coming off a couple of injury-related down years.  But he'd still be a 29-year-old with a three-year, 16.1 WAR run on his resume, so he probably would've signed a high-AAV opt-out deal.  As it stands, the Braves probably paid a bit above market value for Riley's arbitration years.  That's not a big issue, but from this point forward it's as if they signed him to a seven-year, $154MM free agent deal with an eighth-year club option.  That's not really the type of deal Riley would've signed this past offseason, but the $22MM AAV is low enough where there's room for profit if he bounces back in the next couple years.

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Front Office Originals Tim Dierkes' MLB Mailbag

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

By | at March 24, 2026 11:40pm CDT

The Cubs deepened their rotation, rebuilt their bullpen, and made one of the biggest free agent splashes in franchise history.

Major League Signings

2026 spending: $80.525MM ($15MM deferred)
Total future spending: $231.025MM ($70MM deferred)

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Colin Rea, SP/RP: Facing a $6MM club option for 2026 with a $750K buyout, the parties instead agreed to a new deal paying $5.5MM for ’26.  The new deal includes a $7.5MM club option for 2027 with a $1MM buyout, for a $6.5MM guarantee and $5.75MM in new money.

Notable Losses

The Cubs’ offseason kicked off with a series of option decisions regarding starter Shota Imanaga.  Given the team’s lack of faith in Imanaga at the end of last season, those went as expected: the club declined their three-year option, and Imanaga declined his two-year option.

The Cubs’ decision to then issue Imanaga a one-year qualifying offer worth $22.025MM came as a surprise.  With big offseason plans, why risk tying up that much money on him in mid-November? Perhaps the Cubs thought the 32-year-old would find a better deal elsewhere, netting them a mid-70s pick in the 2026 draft.

But the team certainly understood it was possible Imanaga would explore the market and elect to return to Chicago on the QO, and that’s what he did.  Imanaga is a solid mid-rotation starter, one-year deals are rarely a problem, and restored velocity this spring may lead to a season more like his excellent 2024.

The only detriment to the Imanaga gambit would be if the Cubs found themselves pinching pennies elsewhere to make up for it.  On the same day Imanaga became a free agent – before qualifying offers were due – the Cubs did make a financially-motivated move.  Despite several of Craig Counsell’s other trusted relievers entering free agency, the Cubs shipped Andrew Kittredge back to Baltimore rather than pick up his $9MM club option.

Kittredge, 36, was excellent in 21 2/3 innings for the Cubs after coming over at the trade deadline, and was Counsell’s highest-leverage reliever in the playoffs.  He’s been slowed by shoulder inflammation this spring, but back in November, I thought the Cubs would welcome him back to their bullpen.  The Kittredge decision was curious, but 36-year-old pitchers are fickle, and $9MM tends to be the top range of what Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is willing to spend for one season of a reliever.  The Cubs did bring swingman Colin Rea back, throwing him a little extra money to get a club option for 2027.

After an unproductive and injury-marred second half, the Cubs seemed to have little interest in signing Kyle Tucker, whether to the $400MM+ deal he likely hoped for, or the record-setting AAV short-term opt-out deal he eventually signed with the Dodgers.  The Cubs probably wouldn’t have signed Tucker even if his second half had been strong.  But they did make him a qualifying offer to lock in the #75 pick in this year’s draft.

Knowing they’d get that pick likely boosted the Cubs’ willingness to forfeit their second-rounder, had they signed another team’s qualified free agent.  That possibility was on the table throughout the offseason, with the Cubs showing some level of reported interest in Dylan Cease, Michael King, Ranger Suarez, and Zac Gallen.

The Cubs made a legitimate run at Cease, who they drafted out of high school back in 2014.  Cease ultimately reached an agreement on a seven-year, $210MM deal with the Blue Jays on November 26th.  As Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic put it on December 3rd, the Cubs “bowed out as the bidding reached the $200 million mark.”

The thing is, the bidding kind of didn’t reach the $200MM mark on Cease, who deferred $64MM and signed with a net present value of approximately $189.2MM.  Either the Cubs actually drew their line below that range, or Hoyer had not yet convinced the Ricketts family to bend on their recent opposition to deferred money.

With Cease off the board, the Cubs reportedly at least entertained a number of top free agents throughout December beyond the starters mentioned, including Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Tatsuya Imai, and Eugenio Suarez.

Simultaneously, the Cubs set about rebuilding their bullpen through free agency.  They snagged Phil Maton, a soft-tossing righty with a big strikeout rate last year, in November.  Maton’s two-year, $14.5MM deal marked the first multiyear free agent relief signing of Hoyer’s five-year tenure atop the Cubs’ front office, and the club’s first since their disastrous Craig Kimbrel signing in June 2019.  Hoyer saw another target, Ryan Helsley, land with Baltimore, but came away with Maton, Hunter Harvey, Caleb Thielbar, Hoby Milner, and Jacob Webb before the end of the year.

Save for a few minor league deals for depth, Hoyer’s bullpen work was done.  Perhaps emboldened by his success in acquiring Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz, and Kittredge last year, Hoyer brought in four new bullpen options while retaining Thielbar.

In the 2024-25 offseason, five relievers signed for $20MM or more: Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, Blake Treinen, A.J. Minter, and Carlos Estevez.  The first three posted ERAs of 4.37 and up last year, and Minter pitched only 11 innings.  Estevez had success for the Royals, but is showing red flags this spring with a drastic velocity drop.  Given that bust rate – the Cubs were actually the high bidder on Scott – it’s hard to fault Hoyer for letting Keller go to the Phillies for $22MM.  Still, the Cubs’ bullpen, led by holdover and Team Venezuela stopper Daniel Palencia, comes with tons of variance for 2026.

The Cubs went off the beaten path to snag Tyler Austin on a cheap split contract.  The 34-year-old first baseman had a touch of success in the Majors with the 2018 Yankees and Twins, but eventually decamped to Japan for a six-year run with the Yokohama BayStars (where he was teammates with Imanaga).  It seemed that perhaps Austin would take over Justin Turner’s role as Michael Busch‘s caddy against tough lefties.  But after an excellent 2025 season, the Cubs are saying Busch has earned a shot against southpaws.  Part of that may be owed to the patellar tendon debridement procedure Austin underwent in February, expected to keep him out months.  But the commitment to Austin was minimal, he could eventually supplement Moises Ballesteros at DH, and the Cubs still have right-handed options on the active roster in Miguel Amaya and Matt Shaw.

The Cubs’ interest in Cease suggested a desire to add a pitcher to the front of their rotation.  According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, “the Cubs seem to have been the most aggressive suitor” of Japanese righty Tatsuya Imai, but they instead allowed the 27-year-old to sign an opt-out-laden three-year, $54MM deal with the Astros.

Perhaps the Cubs weren’t fans of the opt-out structure of Imai’s contract, after a similar one with Cody Bellinger became a headache.  They instead pivoted to a longtime target, Marlins righty Edward Cabrera.  The Cubs landed Cabrera in a January 7th trade with Miami, surrendering Baseball America’s #43 prospect in Owen Caissie (plus two others) to get him.  The Cubs control the hard-throwing Cabrera for three years, and he comes cheap in 2026 at just $4.45MM.

Cabrera, 28 in April, set a career-high with last year’s 144 2/3 innings (which includes a couple minor league rehab starts).  Dating back even before his 2021 debut, injuries have been a consistent theme in Cabrera’s career.  He dealt with biceps inflammation in ’21, but still reached the Majors in August of that year.  The biceps slowed him again the following year, which also included elbow tendinitis.  A shoulder impingement cost him a month in ’23, which recurred the following spring and again in May of ’24.  That one knocked him out for two months.

Cabrera began 2025 with an IL stint for a blister, another common injury for him.  An elbow injury cropped up in July, but did not necessitate a trip to the IL.  An elbow sprain did put Cabrera on the IL in September, though he returned in less than a month to make two final starts. His velocity was back at full strength in those appearances.

Of all the starting pitching options the Cubs entertained last winter, Cabrera was a high-risk, high-reward choice.  But, particularly after Imanaga accepted the QO, they needed front of the rotation upside more than depth.  The price on Cabrera was high; Caissie might have wound up as the Cubs’ starting right fielder for years otherwise.  Though he throws hard, Cabrera’s fastball is actually ineffective, as Sharma explained.  But he brings an excellent curveball and unique changeup, and he cut his walk rate last year.  Cabrera is the type of starter the Cubs were missing in last year’s playoffs, though whether he’ll be healthy in October is anyone’s guess.

Though there was a bit of stray Zac Gallen talk, the Cabrera acquisition completed the Cubs’ rotation.  They’ll trot out Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Imanaga, Cabrera, and Jameson Taillon to start the season, with Justin Steele hoping to return from surgery around June.  Javier Assad will start the season in Triple-A, with Ben Brown working multi-inning stints out of the MLB bullpen and Rea always ready to take starts as needed.  Jaxon Wiggins, the game’s 78th best prospect according to BA, will be at Triple-A Iowa as well.  Even with Taillon’s shaky spring, the Cubs’ rotation depth looks strong for now.  160+ innings from Horton would still go a long way, after last year’s second-place Rookie of the Year finish.

After last spring’s four-year, $115MM offer to Alex Bregman fell well short, I didn’t expect the Cubs to make a bigger push a year later.  I was wrong.  It turned out the Cubs’ previous failure to push further was more on ownership than Hoyer.  According to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins used the intervening period to meet with higher-ups to “update the club’s philosophy on using deferred money to help finance deals for free agents.”  The fact that the Cubs’ big starting pitching acquisition, Cabrera, added less than $5MM to the payroll likely emboldened Hoyer on Bregman.

As the Chicago Bears were mounting a wild comeback to beat the Packers at Soldier Field to win the NFC Wild Card game – with Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong in attendance – Hoyer was wrapping up a stunning deal with Bregman.  Whereas their 2025 four-year offer covered his age 31-34 seasons, this year’s five-year deal covers age 32-36.  That’s the first time the Cubs have signed a free agent through age 36 since Yu Darvish nearly eight years prior — a contract Hoyer dumped halfway through to get Caissie.

The Bregman deal included $70MM in deferred money, resulting in a net present value a bit shy of $155MM.  Bregman did a bit better than expected, as MLBTR had called for $160MM over six years.  Certainly Bregman brings a clubhouse effect that Kyle Tucker does not.  But though the Cubs didn’t have to include a sixth year (age 37 for Bregman), I was still surprised to see them sign a player for big money that deep into his career.  As Davy Andrews of FanGraphs put it, “He’s not starting out with much margin for error, so things could get ugly when his bat speed or his contact skills start to go. And Bregman is already slow and a below-average baserunner. He already has a weak arm. When the first-step quickness goes, the defense could crater pretty quickly too.”  Long-term pessimism aside, Bregman still projects for 3+ WAR this year.

Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, quietly worth 17.5 WAR over the last four years, had been in trade rumors throughout the winter.  Hoerner’s contract is up after 2026, but the Cubs did not see fit to move him this winter to clear a spot for Matt Shaw.  Shaw, 24, was displaced from his starting third base job by the Bregman signing.  Shaw popped up in rumors as well, but instead the Cubs plan to use him in a super-utility role this year.  For example, he’ll see time in right field early in the season as Seiya Suzuki recovers from a PCL strain suffered in the World Baseball Classic.

The Cubs’ Opening Day right field start against Nationals righty Cade Cavalli may go to Michael Conforto, as the veteran will make the team folllowing Suzuki’s injury.  Minor league signee Dylan Carlson also claimed a bench spot. At the time of this writing, Scott Kingery and Chas McCormick are vying for the last position player job, with Kingery’s infield versatility probably giving him the leg up.

Late Tuesday, the Cubs put a cherry on top of an exciting offseason by locking up center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong to a long-term extension running through 2032.  PCA, just 24 on Wednesday, cemented himself as a fan favorite with a first half last year that put him in the MVP conversation.  Crow-Armstrong’s second-half flop didn’t deter the Cubs from extending him, though they already controlled him through 2030.  As perhaps the game’s best defensive center fielder, PCA offers a high floor even if he can’t get his batting average up or learn to hit left-handed pitching.

Crow-Armstrong’s six-year extension begins in 2027, so it covers his four arbitration years plus his first two free agent seasons.  If we assume around $40MM in potential arbitration earnings, each free agent year gets valued at around $37-38MM.  That’s a hefty price, but as my colleague Steve Adams put it, the Cubs have a knack for getting players to give up an atypical number of free agent years (as in the cases of Hoerner and Ian Happ).

The PCA deal doesn’t really have a clear comp.  Consider:

  • Crow Armstrong: signed at age 24 with 1.170 Major League service, buys out four arbitration years and two free agent years covering age 25-30 for $115MM
  • Jackson Merrill: signed at age 22 with 1.006 service, buys out one pre-arb year, three arb years, and as many as six free agent years covering age 23-32 for $156MM (if 2035 club option is exercised)
  • Roman Anthony: signed at age 21.25 with 0.058 service, buys out three pre-arb years, three arb years, and as many as three free agent years covering age 22-30 for $160MM (if 2034 club option is exercised)
  • Corbin Carroll: signed at age 22.57 with 0.038 service, buys out three pre-arb years, three arb years, and as many as three free agent years covering age 22-30 for $134MM (if 2031 club option is exercised)
  • Tyler Soderstrom: signed at age 24.1 with 2.053 service, buys out one pre-arb year, three arb years, and as many as four free agent years covering age 24-31 for $111MM (if 2033 club option is exercised)

As you can see, none of these really match up with Crow-Armstrong, who signed a bit later in his career than most, gave up the fewest free agent years, gave up no club options, and like Anthony and Carroll preserved a shot at free agency heading into his age-31 season.

PCA was already part of the Cubs’ long-term outlook, but here’s how that looks at present (relievers excluded):

  • Free agents after 2026: Hoerner, Suzuki, Happ, Imanaga, Taillon, Boyd, Carson Kelly
  • Under control through 2027: Steele
  • Under control through 2028: Cabrera
  • Under control through 2029: Dansby Swanson, Busch, Miguel Amaya
  • Under control through 2030: Bregman, Horton
  • Under control through 2031: Moises Ballesteros, Shaw
  • Under control through 2032: Crow-Armstrong

Barring further extensions, the Cubs might see something on the order of 17 WAR walk out the door after the 2026 season, plus four relievers.  Throw a lockout into the mix, and the 2027 Cubs could look quite different when the dust eventually settles.  They’ve certainly got the payroll flexibility to sign Hoerner and/or Suzuki.  However, Hoerner could be somewhat difficult to value, and I’m not sure the Cubs will want to go further with a 32-year-old Suzuki.  The Cubs may be left seeking a pair of corner outfielders, multiple starting pitchers, and several relievers next offseason.

Those are problems for another day.  Though the PCA signing kicks in next year, the Cubs have pushed their 2026 payroll to new heights, passing the $244MM competitive balance tax threshold.  They’ve built a strong team despite losing Tucker, though they probably face tougher competition from the rest of the NL Central than many realize. That includes needing to find a way to jump the Brewers, who have kept them second in the division for three straight seasons.

How would you grade the Cubs' offseason?

  • B 52% (1,098)
  • A 25% (540)
  • C 16% (348)
  • F 4% (86)
  • D 2% (51)

Total votes: 2,123

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2025-26 Offseason In Review Chicago Cubs MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

By | at March 13, 2026 4:16pm CDT

The White Sox surprisingly landed a slugger out of Japan and won the draft lottery.  The also finally found a trade match for Luis Robert Jr. and added a half-dozen veterans on shorter-term deals.

Major League Signings

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Last year’s White Sox offseason was marked by the Will Venable managerial hire and the franchise-altering Garrett Crochet trade, against the backdrop of owner Jerry Reinsdorf showing some willingness to sell the team.  During the summer we gained clarity on the ownership situation, with a plan in place to transfer ownership to Justin Ishbia at some point from 2029-34.

So executive vice president and general manager Chris Getz was operating from a somewhat more stable place this winter, his third offseason in the big chair.  It was an active one, with the Sox adding larger contracts than which we’ve been accustomed to under Getz.

A day after the 2025 regular season ended, the White Sox announced that pitching coach Ethan Katz and hitting coach Marcus Thames would not be returning, among others.  Katz was initially hired back in the Rick Hahn era, and Thames was an early Getz addition.  With a year under his belt as manager, Venable was able to provide input leading to the early November hires of Zach Bove as pitching coach and Derek Shomon as hitting coach.

Bove had a winding path to the job, and his last position with the Royals was “heavy on analytics, especially pitch design,” according to Anne Rogers of MLB.com.  Shomon, a native of the Chicago suburbs, has an unconventional background as well.  His previous job was with the Marlins, known as an analytical club, and Shomon is often linked to Kyle Stowers‘ success last year.

In a reminder that plans change and GMs don’t always tip their hand, Getz kicked off the winter by downplaying his desire to do multiyear free agent deals and saying the club was planning on center fielder Luis Robert Jr. staying put.

Getz’s first signing was indeed for two years for Anthony Kay, but at a modest $12MM total.  Kay, a southpaw who turns 31 soon, is a former Mets’ first rounder who was dealt to Toronto at the 2019 trade deadline in the Marcus Stroman deal.  He failed to stick in the Majors, bouncing around on waivers before heading to NPB and the Yokohama BayStars for the 2024-25 seasons.  Kay had a nice run for the BayStars, particularly his 1.74 ERA last year.

Kay developed a sinker in Japan, leading to groundball-centric success.  That might not match up well with the current White Sox infield outside of Colson Montgomery.  Still, 150 innings of 4.50 ball would suffice at this price, as $12MM doesn’t usually buy you one year of a decent fourth starter.  Kay seems unlikely to match Erick Fedde’s initial run with the White Sox (3.11 ERA in 21 starts), which stands as a clear win for Getz given that it netted the team’s starting third baseman in Miguel Vargas plus a couple of infield prospects.

A day after the Kay signing, the White Sox had a monumental win: their 27.73% chance of landing the first overall pick in 2026 came through.  These things can change, but at present the clear favorite to go 1-1 is UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky.  Last September, Carlos Collazo of Baseball America called Cholowsky “the most impressive college shortstop prospect in the last 10 years,” naming top draft picks Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman “reasonable benchmarks.”  Though the White Sox are flush with infield talent hoping to join Montgomery, that presumably won’t stop them from taking Cholowsky if he’s atop their board on July 11th.

Winning the top pick was not the most likely outcome for the White Sox, but we knew the exact odds of it happening.  If you’d asked me back in October to assess their chances of signing Yakult Swallows slugger Munetaka Murakami, I’d have put the odds lower than 28%.  I liked the idea, suggesting as much in my Offseason Outlook as a means of the White Sox planting a flag in the Japanese market after sitting it out for roughly 20 years.  But at the time I expected the 26-year-old to secure $100MM+ and did not think Jerry Reinsdorf would approve that, given that the club has never guaranteed more to a player than Andrew Benintendi‘s disastrous $75MM deal.

It’s unknown what other offers Murakami received, but the White Sox were able to beat out the Red Sox and get it done for just two years and $34MM, plus a $6.575MM posting fee paid to the Swallows.  Murakami didn’t offer much insight as to why he chose Chicago, but it’s safe to assume his market didn’t materialize as expected.

In signing with the White Sox, Murakami enters a low-pressure environment and maintains the ability to re-enter free agency (post-lockout) still a few months shy of his 28th birthday.  He brings 70-grade power with a 40-grade hit tool, with strikeout rates even in NPB approaching 30%.  He also crushed 39 home runs per 650 plate appearances over his last three seasons, and that doesn’t include his 56 homer 2022 campaign (an NPB record for a Japanese-born player).  Murakami “struggles with offspeed and spin,” per Baseball America, but they think he has the bat speed to catch up with the high-velocity fastballs he rarely saw in NPB.

70-grade power is rare, though.  Five years ago, prospects landing that grade by BA included Pete Alonso, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Nolan Gorman, Wander Franco, Jo Adell, and Eloy Jimenez.  Alonso’s hit tool was 45 and Gorman’s was 50, for reference.  There will be plenty of swing and miss with Murakami, but if he can manage a .330 on-base percentage with 30 home runs anyway, it won’t matter.  This is an excellent opportunistic addition by the White Sox, and Murakami adds to the growing excitement around the team that began with Montgomery’s instant success last July.  Even if Murakami goes bust, it will have been a risk worth taking for a team still running the third-lowest cash payroll in the game at $82.17MM (according to Ethan Hullihen).

Just before the holidays, the White Sox added a solid and affordable upgrade to the pitching staff with the signing of 32-year-old southpaw Sean Newcomb for $4.5MM.  Like many pitchers, Newcomb would like to get back to starting if possible, not having done so in any significant capacity since his time with the 2018 Braves.  Newcomb pitched quite well out of the A’s bullpen following a May trade, but he did go 60+ pitches eight times last year and features six different pitches.  Newcomb seems likely to begin the year in the bullpen and is pretty easily the club’s best lefty reliever, but it’s not hard to see a starting opportunity emerge for him.

The White Sox’ next couple moves were minor league signings: outfielder Jarred Kelenic and lefty reliever Ryan Borucki.  Given Getz’s highlighting of these pickups, both seem likely to make the team.  Kelenic, 26, was drafted sixth overall by the Mets in 2018 and was key to the club getting Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz six months later.  Regarded as a top-five prospect in baseball prior to 2021, Kelenic had modest success in Seattle in ’23 and was effectively purchased by the Braves.  The signing might not amount to much, but this is definitely the outfield to join for a former hotshot seeking an opportunity.

A bad White Sox outfield got even worse in mid-January, as Robert’s time with the club came to an unceremonious end with a trade to the Mets.  Robert peaked in 2023, his only season topping last year’s 110 games.  That club won 61 games and fired Hahn for Getz in August.  I wrote in March of 2024, “Luis Robert may be at peak value coming off a healthy 5-WAR season, and he’s controlled through 2027. A case could be made that if his performance is largely irrelevant on bad teams in ’24 and ’25, and the team might just be turning the corner in ’26, the optimal move is to cash him in now for the maximum return. But the White Sox probably don’t see their timeline that way, and keeping Robert simply as a reason to watch the team is defensible.”

So I wasn’t beating Getz up at the time for holding on to his star, but in hindsight keeping Robert all these years was the wrong move.  The main piece of the Mets trade is Luisangel Acuña, younger brother of Ronald and a former top-75 prospect.  Acuña’s star has dimmed considerably, as he’s struggled to hit Triple-A pitching.  He’s out of minor league options and seems ticketed for a long runway trying to replace Robert in center, and otherwise a utility role.  We don’t know what Getz turned down in his two-plus years of fielding offers for Robert, but it had to have been better than the return he ultimately received.

Some might say that within the bounds of this offseason, picking up Robert’s option and swapping him for Acuña and a lottery ticket arm in Truman Pauley was a modest win.  But since the team’s current payroll actually sits lower than it was at the end of the 2025 season, ditching Robert’s $20MM (and his $2MM buyout for 2027) seemed unnecessary if the return was Acuña.  The decision doesn’t line up well with the choice to bring in Murakami on roughly the same terms Robert would’ve had if his ’27 option was picked up.  If you’re moving toward being an interesting and watchable team, why not just keep Robert?

I know fans may say Robert was hardly watchable these last couple years, but he clearly has value as a Major Leaguer if the Mets were willing to take on his entire salary and pay a 110% tax on it.  I wonder if the Mets would’ve surrendered something better had the White Sox eaten money.  All that said, it’s hard to find major beef with moving on from a player who was worth 1.8 WAR over the last two years.

So Robert’s salary was duly unloaded, and Getz promised to spend the savings on a bunch of cool stuff.  Seranthony Dominguez was signed for $20MM, effectively consuming the entire savings but over two years.  Dominguez, 31, averages nearly 98 miles per hour on his heater and punched out over 30% of batters faced in 62 2/3 innings last year.  That came with a 13.8% walk rate, sixth-worst in MLB for relievers with at least 50 innings pitched.  Dominguez pitched another 11 1/3 in the postseason for Toronto, issuing free passes to 22% of batters faced and beaning one too.

This was Getz’s first multiyear deal for a free agent reliever; the club had taken about four years off from giving those out.  The White Sox sometimes overspent in this area under Hahn.  In Getz’s case, the Dominguez deal was fairly harmless, in that the club is still below last year’s payroll.  There are only so many places to spend money if you’re a rebuilding team.

More bullpen money was spent on Jordan Hicks, though the White Sox absorbed $16MM of his $24MM over the next two years more as a means of purchasing a 50-grade MLB-ready arm from Boston in the person of David Sandlin.  The White Sox sent back a lesser pitching prospect, Gage Ziehl, in the deal.  Sandlin will start the season in the minors.  I don’t recall this type of trade from the White Sox previously, so props to Getz for using financial flexibility to bolster the farm system.  A change of scenery and full bullpen commitment to Hicks could pay dividends as a cherry on top.  With Dominguez, Hicks, and Grant Taylor, the White Sox have a trio of upper-90s righties in their bullpen, and Jordan Leasure has above-average velocity as well.

The rest of the Robert savings went to Austin Hays, who jumped at the chance to secure regular at-bats for the first time since 2023.  Hays has destroyed lefties for the last couple of years, but has just a 78 wRC+ against righties.  He adds a veneer of credibility to what still projects to be the worst outfield in baseball.  Andrew Benintendi, Acuña, Derek Hill, and Everson Pereira figure to round out the group.  Outfielder Mike Tauchman, the team’s third-best hitter last year, was non-tendered and went to the Mets on a minor league deal.

Unloading Benintendi and some portion of the $31MM owed to him over the next couple years would certainly be fine.  But according to James Fegan of Sox Machine, Getz said in February, “In regards to interest from other clubs, we haven’t had too many conversations about Andrew, so we anticipate he’s going to be on this club come opening day.”  Benintendi has been below replacement level in his three years with the White Sox, and may yet finish his contract in another uniform, but there’s little trade value to be mined here.

The White Sox capped off their offseason by bringing back Erick Fedde on a cheap one-year deal.  Fedde seems to have leapfrogged Newcomb for a rotation job despite being one of the worst regular starters in the game last year.  I assume this is based on the 21 solid starts Fedde gave the White Sox in 2024.  I don’t expect much here, but at $1.5MM it’ll be easy to cut bait if necessary.  Newcomb, Sandlin, Tanner McDougal, Jonathan Cannon, Austin Voth, and others will be on hand to join the rotation as needed.  Drew Thorpe, key to the Dylan Cease deal two years ago, should be back from Tommy John surgery around the All-Star break.

The White Sox may have found something interesting in former Rule 5 pick Shane Smith, who pitched well enough last year to represent them in the All-Star Game and will take the ball against his old team in Milwaukee on Opening Day.  Smith came on particularly strong with a 27.6 K% over his final dozen starts.  The rotation is thin otherwise as the Sox wait to see if top lefty pitching prospects Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith will bounce back from off-years.  Out of the gates, the starting five is likely to be Smith, Davis Martin, Sean Burke, Kay, and Fedde.  As it stands, the White Sox have one of the worst rotations in baseball.

When I see an $82MM payroll and a guy like Fedde filling out the rotation, I wonder why the White Sox couldn’t have found someone more compelling.  The problem is that good free agents generally don’t want to join 60-win teams unless they vastly overpay.  For example, Cody Ponce is more interesting than Anthony Kay, but how much over the Blue Jays’ $30MM offer would the Sox have had to go to lure him away from the defending AL champs?  Lucas Giolito‘s best years came in a White Sox uniform, and he remains unsigned, but the Fedde signing suggests the Sox don’t want to commit decent money to this rotation spot.

The White Sox’s catching depth is worth a mention.  Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero took most of the team’s innings behind the plate in 2025, and both have six years of control remaining.  Teel’s 125 wRC+ ranked sixth in baseball among catchers with at least 250 plate appearances.  Teel seems to be ahead of Quero defensively, though the latter’s struggles with pitch framing may be muted by the implementation of the Automated Ball-Strike Challenge System this year.  Quero managed to hold his own at the plate with a 95 wRC+.

This depth led to some rumored trade inquiries during the offseason, but nothing came of it and the young pair can certainly coexist on the White Sox.  Korey Lee, who is out of minor league options, may wind up traded.  However, Teel’s unfortunate hamstring strain in Italy’s victory over Team USA in the World Baseball Classic should buy Lee some time.

The White Sox haven’t played .500 ball since doing exactly that in 2022, and that streak is likely to extend to four years in ’26.  Their farm system seems to sit middle of the pack or worse, but part of that is due to graduations of quality players.  The team’s core is coming along nicely, and will get a big boost with the first overall pick in July.

Core pieces are emerging in the Majors on the South Side, mainly Montgomery, Teel, and Smith.  The next phase figures to be locking some of these guys up, even if Hahn’s 2019-20 series of extensions didn’t really work out.  All three could make sense in the immediate future.  None are fully proven in the Majors, but the price will go up if they establish themselves.

Though Murakami may end up more of a short-term win, the White Sox franchise is making long-term progress.  They’re looking solid at catcher and shortstop, they’ve got six top-100 prospects, and a plan is in place for better ownership.  Can a team projected to win fewer than 70 games make any kind of noise this year?  Once in a while, a team with this kind of projection flirts with a .500 record, and that’s probably the best case scenario for the 2026 White Sox.

How would you grade the White Sox’ offseason?

How would you grade the White Sox' offseason?

  • B 46% (707)
  • C 31% (468)
  • A 10% (146)
  • D 9% (141)
  • F 4% (66)

Total votes: 1,528

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2025-26 Offseason In Review Chicago White Sox MLBTR Originals

MLB Mailbag: Pirates, Shortstops, Okamoto, Ponce

By | at March 11, 2026 11:59pm CDT

This week's mailbag gets into the Pirates' third base situation, the best shortstop of 2026, projections for Kazuma Okamoto and Cody Ponce, and thoughts on the Nationals, Cardinals, and Mets.

Don asks:

Is Isaac Paredes the Pirates' best option for a trade upgrade at third base? What might that cost be in prospects/players?

John asks:

​I think the Pirates should give some serious prospects up to acquire CJ; the Bucs seem to be one bat short. What do you think? Will Jared Jones do it?

Jared Triolo is the projected starter at the hot corner for the Pirates.  The 28-year-old won a utility player Gold Glove in 2024 and will play a strong third base.  It's a position where a 96 wRC+ at the plate is average, and Triolo projects around 90.  He was able to cut his strikeout rate last year, but hasn't really shown any power since A-ball.

Triolo is a 2-WAR guy per 650 PA.  Total value-wise, he's arguably on par with offensive-minded additions Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn.  It's just easier to get excited about a 30-homer bat like Lowe, even when he gives a ton of his value back as one of the worst defensive second basemen in the game.  And Triolo is making near the league minimum, not eight figures.

I went into this exercise thinking Triolo would be one of the game's worst regular third basemen, but I didn't realize how bleak that landscape is.  On a per 650 PA basis - which is quite generous to injury-prone "regulars" such Royce Lewis and Yoan Moncada - Triolo's 2.0 WAR projection from The Bat X ranks 18th.  There's no real reason to think guys like Caleb Durbin or Nolan Arenado will out-perform Triolo this year.

Of the three players directly ahead of Triolo - so close as to be considered a wash - two of them are Alec Bohm and Paredes.  They both seemed somewhat available this winter, and they make a lot more money than Triolo, but they're not clearly better.

I'd say 14 third basemen represent a clear upgrade on Triolo for 2026.  Here they are along with thoughts on whether the Pirates could've acquired them:

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Front Office Originals Tim Dierkes' MLB Mailbag

MLB Mailbag: Braves, Profar, White Sox, Mariners

By | at March 4, 2026 11:55pm CDT

This week's mailbag gets into Jurickson Profar's PED suspension and how the Braves might compensate for it, a potential embarrassment of infield riches for the White Sox, the Mariners' rotation depth, and much more.

Jeff asks:

Where do the go after the Profar suspension news? Who is available and what will the trade price be?

Morris asks:

Thank you again for doing a reader mailbag. I wish my question was coming under better circumstances. Let's get the Braves' elephant out of the way: Jurickson Profar.

We don't need to get into the weeds about the suspension. I'm choosing to be an optimist here, so, I'm going to be polite and talk around the situation. I see this development as lineup flexibility. The Yaz signing looks great, and I think Eli White as the primary bench and LHH platoon-bat is not as bad as some might worry.

But it's also payroll flexibility. We just "saved" $18M in commitments and taxes for this season. How should AA allocate that money? Could we get Giolito or Littell for something around 1-year and $10M? Or is that money now dry powder for a possible trade?

Lastly, should we cut Profar this coming offseason? I'm assuming he's probably done in MLB after this, but I know he'd still be owed for the 2027 part of his deal, but, if I'm AA, I'd happily eat that money to have an opening for a dependable guy who won't present this sort of clubhouse issue.

I remember finding the Braves' signing of Mike Yastrzemski a bit superfluous when it occurred in December, but the move is looking wise given Profar's suspension.  Yaz's projected platoon partner looks to be Eli White.

White spent all of 2025 in the Majors, winning a utility role with the Braves out of camp.  The 31-year-old tallied 271 plate appearances, getting regular duty for about a month until Ronald Acuña Jr. returned from the IL.  About 35% of those PA came against lefties, against whom White managed a league average 100 wRC+ even accounting for five homers against lefties Brent Suter, Jeffrey Springs, Shota Imanaga, Colton Gordon, and Jose A. Ferrer in those 96 PA.

White logged more time in the minors in 2023 and '24.  Baseball-Reference has unfortunately decided to stop providing minor league splits, so I can only tell you how White hit against lefties across all levels combined.  He managed a .281/.337/.494 line against southpaws in 98 PA in 2024, and .258/.365/.581 in 74 PA in '23.  So there's a little bit of data suggesting White can maybe be a decent short side platoon partner for Yastrzemski.  How about outside options?

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Front Office Originals Tim Dierkes' MLB Mailbag

MLB Mailbag: Giolito, Littell, Kopech, White Sox, Mets

By | at February 25, 2026 11:30pm CDT

This week's mailbag gets into the lingering free agencies of Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell, and Michael Kopech, multiple White Sox questions, a look at the Mets' rotation, and much more.

Marshal asks:

Why do we think Giolito and Littell have yet to sign? Most other FA left have large red flags either in past performance or injuries. These two are a clear cut above the rest (with the exception of Scherzer who reportedly is being picky about which team). Is it that they are being picky about what team, or are they holding out for bigger money? Teams like the Braves, Angels, A's and more could easily fit these guys into the middle/back of their rotation and yet they all seem unwilling to make a move for these two. Is it related to the TV deals collapsing?

Generally when a pitcher is unsigned this late in the offseason, there's a likely mismatch between their expectations and reality.

In terms of late-signing quality free agent pitchers who did not receive a qualifying offer, one recent example was Jordan Montgomery.  He went out looking for over $100MM, and wound up signing a one-year deal (with a vesting option) on March 26th of 2024.

A more distant but also more comparable example was Jake Odorizzi.  He'd accepted a qualifying offer for 2020, but wound up pitching only 13 2/3 innings for the Twins due to injuries and the shortened season.  We pegged him for three years and $39MM nonetheless, and it was later revealed his asking price was indeed in that range.  Amid a pandemic, Odorizzi wasn't able to find that, and instead settled for a $23.5MM guarantee from the Astros on March 8th.

We projected two years and $32MM for Giolito back on November 6th.  When I was making my own projection in October, I went with three years and $51MM, but didn't mind bringing that down given the uncertain status of his elbow.  That injury ended Giolito's season on September 23rd; he wasn't able to make it back for the postseason.  The righty professed full health in November.  So why is he still unsigned?

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Front Office Originals Tim Dierkes' MLB Mailbag

MLB Mailbag: Red Sox, Brewers, Phillies, Braves

By | at February 18, 2026 11:59pm CDT

This week's mailbag gets into the Red Sox and their offense, Masataka Yoshida's trade value, how far Jacob deGrom is from Hall of Fame consideration, the Brewers and Christian Yelich's contract, the Phillies' and Braves' rotations, and how revenue sharing money is spent.  Now that Bruce Meyer has been named executive director of the MLBPA, I've added thoughts on that news at the bottom of this article.

Christopher asks:

Do the Red Sox have enough offense to make the playoffs?

David asks:

It's two weeks before the trade deadline and the Red Sox are in contention but it's painfully obvious they didn't solve their problem with needing a power hitter. I appreciate it's only February but look into your crystal ball. Who are their likely targets?

Dave asks:

Given the fact Luis Arraez recently signed for $12M year contract, do you still feel there is no value for some team picking up Yoshida? Both have bad marks defensively and Arraez has a higher batting average but Yoshida provides more power, so that may balance out. Worse case someone should take Yoshida for at least $8M.

Lloyd asks:

Boston has an OF glut and Duran is mentioned as the one to most likely be traded. Detroit has an INF glut and Torres is tradeable after June 15. Is there a match here, assuming both players are healthy and productive? Would Boston move Duran for Anderson or Lee, Tiger Top-10 prospects who rank in the lower end of the top 110 MLB prospects? Detroit could use an OF bat for the big push. Assuming salary/contract considerations offer no stumbling block, is this something that would work?

The Red Sox continue to have room for a major addition at second or third base, given that recent addition Caleb Durbin can play either spot.  Such a pickup would bump Durbin or Marcelo Mayer to the bench, which already has a pair of infielders in Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Romy Gonzalez.  (Or Mayer could return to Triple-A, where he's only played 43 games).

It's worth keeping in mind that the most accurate projection system, The Bat X, has Durbin posting an 85 wRC+ this year, Mayer at 86, and Kiner-Falefa at 69.  Gonzalez is at 102, but he's done almost all his damage against left-handed pitching.  Even veteran shortstop Trevor Story is only at 97 in that projection system.  Throw in catcher Carlos Narvaez at 83 and Ceddanne Rafaela at 88, and there's a pretty good chance five of nine Red Sox lineup spots feature subpar offense.

Certainly, there is room for a Mayer breakout or a Kristian Campbell bounceback (Campbell is outfield-focused).  Durbin and Narvaez could sustain more of last year's success.  Story may hit like he did from June onward last year.  Rafaela flashed brilliance at the plate for a couple months.

But that's quite a few "ifs," and the club is reliant on good health from 33-34-year-olds Story and Willson Contreras.

Offense isn't everything, which is why FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a healthy 60.1 shot at the playoffs this year.  The club projects to get a lot of value out of its outfield and DH spots; they're fifth in baseball in total WAR for those four spots.  The opposite is true of Boston's infield, which rates 26th.  And that does account for the club's likely improved infield defense.

The Red Sox rank first in all of baseball for projected starting pitcher WAR.  About 72% of that value is coming from the trio at the top: Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez.  While the Sox do have a wealth of solid depth options behind them, it's fair to say a major injury to Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Roman Anthony, or Rafaela could knock them out of the playoff picture.  I'm sure you could say that about the top five players of any team, but three of these are pitchers.  Crochet and Suarez have lengthy injury histories, and Gray is 36.

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Front Office Originals Tim Dierkes' MLB Mailbag

MLB Mailbag: Orioles, Braves, Castellanos, Brewers, Hot Takes

By | at February 11, 2026 5:55pm CDT

This week's mailbag gets into the Orioles' and Braves' rotations, whether Nick Castellanos could help the Tigers, and what the Brewers will do at third base after trading Caleb Durbin.  It concludes with a bunch of my half-baked "hot takes" for your amusement.  I'd love to see yours in the comments.

Michael asks:

Why couldn't the Orioles have signed Ranger Suarez? Seems like they whiffed on this deal.

I don't know that it needed to be Suarez specifically, but Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias has thus far failed to add a front of the rotation starting pitcher.  Shane Baz is probably good for 2 WAR and still has breakout potential.  But (likely) better pitchers such as Suarez, Dylan Cease, Sonny Gray, Framber Valdez, Michael King, MacKenzie Gore, and Freddy Peralta were available this winter and the Orioles didn't add any of them.

Elias had this to say in a recent press conference: "I think we’ve put together a really strong rotation as it stands right now. We’ll continue to look externally, if we can bolster this group in one way, shape or form. … But I think that this rotation looks good."

Elias could still boost the team by one or even two wins by signing Zac Gallen, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today did name the Orioles as one of four suitors.  Still, any of the above would've been better.  Elias noted that "late signings can be tricky," implying that his interest in adding a notable free agent starter might diminish by (in my estimation) the end of the month.

FanGraphs projects the Orioles' rotation to be the 17th-best in MLB.  That includes 3.1 WAR from Kyle Bradish in 148 innings.  I think Bradish is good for more than that, though I'm also not confident Zach Eflin can reach his 146 inning projection, so maybe it's a wash.  Eflin underwent lumbar microdiscectomy surgery last August and aims to be ready for Opening Day.

FanGraphs' projections currently calls for five different Orioles pitchers to reach 146 innings.  Is there any chance of that happening?

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Front Office Originals Tim Dierkes' MLB Mailbag

MLB Mailbag: Dodgers, Phillies, Twins, Tigers, Astros, Cardinals

By | at February 4, 2026 1:53pm CDT

This week's mailbag gets into the Dodgers' rotation, the Phillies' outfield, my favorite and least favorite moves of the offseason, the Twins' and Tigers' approaches, the Astros' infield logjam, and the Cardinals' return for Brendan Donovan.

Drew asks:

Is there a world where the Dodgers get involved on another SP? Dodgers are clearly planning to "load manage" the starters in addition to running the 6 man and Friedman has publicly stated that in a perfect world he is a seller at the deadline (à la Dustin may last year). Why not sign Giolito, Bassitt, or even Gallen to an above-market 1 year salary and try to flip them at the deadline (I'm assuming that the QO for Gallen is slightly mitigated because of the prior penalties for Diaz and Tucker).

I'm excited to see Stone and Ryan but it's still not clear what they will look like post injuries. This would theoretically be another way to leverage the cash on hand advantage and keep the farm restocked given the current draft pick penalties they have to deal with.

Greg asks:

How in the world will the Dodgers manage to limit the innings of their top starters this season? Will a 6-man rotation be enough?

Let's take a look at the Dodgers' rotation:

  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto: The 27-year-old made a total of 24 starts as a rookie in 2024, tallying 112 2/3 innings.  He missed nearly three months due to triceps and shoulder injuries.  Not only did Yamamoto avoid the IL in 2025, he pitched 173 2/3 regular season innings over 30 starts and finished third in the NL Cy Young voting.  Then he tacked on another 37 1/3 postseason innings over five starts, capped by a Game 7 no-rest 34-pitch relief outing.  That epic performance won him World Series MVP.  Yamamoto jumped 98 1/3 innings last year and is slated to pitch in the World Baseball Classic.  But it's worth noting that in the regular season, 18 of Yamamoto's starts were on five days rest and the other 12 were on six or more.  That final Game 7 relief performance was his only postseason outing with fewer than five days rest.
  • Blake Snell: Snell, 33, tossed just 61 1/3 regular season innings last year over 11 starts due to a four-month bout with left shoulder inflammation.  He was Dominant Snell upon his return and added 34 postseason innings to bring his total to 109 (including minor league rehab time).  Last week, Jack Harris of the California Post wrote, "Snell and the team decided to have the 33-year-old slow-play his winter throwing program this offseason. The plan, Snell said, is to still be ready for Opening Day in late March. But at this point, that is not seen as a certainty within the organization."  I get the "as long as he's ready for the postseason" outlook here, but Snell has a checkered injury and may start the season on the IL.
  • Tyler Glasnow: Glasnow, 32, is another "good when he's available" type.  He managed 90 1/3 regular season innings over 18 starts, pitched another 8 2/3 on minor league rehab, and then added 21 1/3 in the postseason to reach 120 1/3 last year.  When the Dodgers traded for Glasnow in December 2023, I explored his injury history in an email-only subscriber article.  The upshot was that Glasnow suffered a forearm strain in 2019, avoided surgery, and then "pitched 86 total innings in 2020, a third of them in the high-stress playoff environment. His innings total ranked fourth in baseball that year."  He unsurprisingly went down for Tommy John the following year, and also had to recover from a flexor strain and knee surgery - during the lockout when he couldn't communicate with the Rays medical staff.  He returned from that in 14 months nonetheless.  Glasnow was not treated conservatively by the Rays, in my opinion.  To be fair, I thought he'd hold up better with the Dodgers, but his 2024 season ended on August 11th due to elbow tendinitis and he lost 73 days in 2025 mostly due to shoulder inflammation.  It'd be tough to count on even 140 total innings for Glasnow.
  • I don't need to explain Shohei Ohtani to you.  He was initially handled carefully on the mound post-Tommy John in '25, tallying 47 regular season innings as a sort of MLB rehab and another 20 1/3 in the postseason.  Ohtani reached 140 innings in each of the 2014-16 seasons in Japan and topped out at 166 in MLB in 2022.  He won't be pitching in the WBC.  I'd be reluctant to pencil him in for more than 140 innings total this year, but it's never wise to bet against Ohtani.
  • I haven't surveyed every team, but Emmet Sheehan is probably the best "fifth starter" in baseball.  The 26-year-old had Tommy John surgery in May 2024 and returned in a speedy 13 months.  His August and September were especially dominant last year.  Sheehan was used in relief in the postseason and mostly struggled.  He reached 100 1/3 total innings last year, his second-highest total after 2023's 127 frames.  Sheehan is yet another Dodgers starter you wouldn't want to count on for more than 140 innings.
  • Roki Sasaki projects to have the sixth spot after a rocky MLB debut.  He went on the IL in mid-May with a shoulder impingement, missed more than four months, and returned as a reliever.  Even 100 innings from Sasaki would be a win, and he hasn't yet shown he can be an effective MLB starter.

Dodgers starters ranked third-lowest in MLB with 783 1/3 regular season innings last year.  Clearly that isn't a problem for them; set 800 as the goal and assume you'll need six different guys who can manage 50+ innings in relief.  Is the current group set up to reach 800 innings, and is another addition worth pursuing?

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Front Office Originals Tim Dierkes' MLB Mailbag

MLB Mailbag: Giants, Framber Valdez, Eugenio Suarez

By | at January 28, 2026 11:59pm CDT

This week's mailbag gets into the Giants' rotation, why Framber Valdez remains unsigned, a thorough look at where Eugenio Suarez could land, the Tigers and Nationals, and more collective bargaining thoughts.

Paul asks:

Who makes sense for the Giants to add to their rotation?

Daryn asks:

Why is Framber Valdez not signed yet? He is the best starting pitcher in the market. Is it his age and asking for a lot of years, or it is the clubhouse thing we hear about?

At present, the Giants' rotation looks like this:

Like every team, they'll need reinforcements for injuries.  Ray is 34 and 2025 was his first full season in three years.  Houser is 33 and tossed a career-high 164 1/3 innings last year (Triple-A included).  Roupp missed 24 days with elbow inflammation and then saw his season end in August with a deep bone bruise to his knee.  Mahle missed over three months with shoulder soreness.

On the Mahle conference call, Giants GM Zack Minasian said, "I don’t know if we’re ever done. I think we’re very comfortable with the five that we have and then the bundle of arms behind them. Our depth is in a much better spot than it was at the beginning of the offseason, so we’re happy with where we’re at. We’ll keep working at it, but we do think this is a solid five-man rotation going into the spring."  That quote comes via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.

That bundle behind the starting five may include Hayden Birdsong, Kai-Wei Teng, Carson Seymour, Blade Tidwell, and Carson Whisenhunt, all of whom made big league starts last year.  Trevor McDonald and Keaton Winn are options as well.

The Giants are paying $21MM in AAV for Houser and Mahle this year, but neither can be counted on for a 2-WAR season.  I don't know that Zac Gallen would be enough of an improvement over the Giants' existing back-end options, but slotting Framber Valdez in behind Webb would be huge.  The Giants have a good team at present, but Valdez could add a crucial three wins over whoever he replaces.

Back in November, Giants owner Greg Johnson expressed reluctance to sign a pitcher to a long-term deal.  Just before that, MLBTR predicted a five-year deal for the 32-year-old Valdez.  Ranger Suarez signed a five-year deal two weeks ago, so it is possible to get that type of contract in January.  That said, we haven't seen a free agent starter get five years on January 28th or later since Yu Darvish in 2018.  As we get closer to pitchers and catchers reporting, the chance of Valdez getting a true five-year deal like Suarez decrease.

There are several factors that likely contribute to Valdez being unsigned on January 28th:

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Front Office Originals Tim Dierkes' MLB Mailbag
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