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MLB Trade Rumors Has A New Agency Database

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We have revamped our agency database!  The database is now mobile-friendly, so you can search for players’ agencies from your phone.  You can search by player name or by agency.

The universe of players in this database is anyone who played in the Majors in the previous three completed seasons, which right now means 2018-20.  Once this season ends, it’ll become 2019-21.  We have agency info for many players, and we’ll continue to do our best to keep it up-to-date.  If you work for an agency and one of your players is blank or incorrect, please drop us a line at mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

You may also recall that in October, I decided to stop doing posts on agency changes on MLBTR, with the exception of significant national stories.  We are still monitoring agency-related news and we will be entering changes into the database.

The agency database is available for all MLBTR readers.  Check it out today!

Which Contract Year Players Are Performing The Best?

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You’ve seen our 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, but which contract year players are actually performing the best at this point in the young season?  These are the top 2021-22 free agents ranked by FanGraphs WAR.  Note: I’m using Baseball-Reference’s excellent Span Finder frequently in this post.  For the full list of 2021-22 MLB free agents, click here.

Hitters

  • Kris Bryant – 1.8 WAR, 180 wRC+ in 124 PA.  As good as Bryant has been, this level of production has plenty of precedent for him.  He’s hit more than eight home runs in a 29-game span many times, including 12 in a stretch in 2019.  It’s not going to be hard to make a case for a huge free agent contract for the 29-year-old Bryant, who may be traded by the Cubs in July.
  • J.D. Martinez – 1.8 WAR, 215 wRC+ in 126 PA.  Like Bryant, the odd 2020 season is the only recent blip in Martinez’s career.  As Boston’s DH continues to light up Statcast, the question becomes whether he should opt out of the remaining $19.375MM on his contract for 2022, which will represent his age-34 season.  The universal DH would help.
  • Buster Posey – 1.4 WAR, 218 wRC+ in 78 PA.  The last time Posey hit seven home runs in 20 games?  Late in the 2014 season, when he finished sixth in the MVP voting.  He hit seven home runs in 114 games in his previous season in 2019.  Clearly, a year off did the 34-year-old Posey good.  A multiyear deal is materializing for the Giants legend.
  • Nick Castellanos – 1.4 WAR, 166 wRC+ in 114 PA.  Castellanos’ early mashing this year is reminiscent of his brief stint with the Cubs, in which he posted a 154 wRC+ in 225 PA.  If he keeps it up, the 29-year-old right fielder might find it easy to opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM left on his contract with the Reds after this season.
  • Starling Marte – 1.0 WAR, 151 wRC+ in 70 PA.  Things were looking up for Marte until he fractured a rib a couple weeks ago, potentially knocking him out until June.  Assuming a healthy return, trade partners will begin knocking on the Marlins’ door at that point.
  • Other impending free agents playing well in the early going: Yadier Molina, Nelson Cruz, Chris Taylor, Josh Harrison, and Corey Dickerson.

Pitchers

  • Clayton Kershaw – 1.3 WAR, 2.95 ERA in 39 2/3 innings.  Even after a clunker Tuesday against the Cubs, Kershaw leads free agent pitchers in WAR.  Is there any way he’d leave the Dodgers heading into his age-34 season?  Max Scherzer is another elder statesman future Hall of Fame pitcher who is off to an excellent start in his contract year.
  • Matt Barnes – 1.0 WAR, 2.12 ERA in 17 innings.  Generally known for high walk rates, Barnes has posted an excellent 5.1 BB% so far this year.  He’s actually had bouts of strong control before, with similar stretches in 2016 and ’17.  He’s also whiffed a phenomenal 49.2% of batters in 2021.  Barnes got off to a great start in 2019 as well, punching out half the batters he faced and walking only 6% over his first 16 games.  He’d go on to walk more than 15% of batters over the remainder of that season.  The point is that Barnes’ start could hardly be better, but these 17 innings do not prove he’s become a completely different pitcher.  At any rate, he’s positioned for one of the better contracts for free agent relievers.  Mark Melancon, Craig Kimbrel, Kendall Graveman, and Ian Kennedy are also getting it done in the early going.
  • Danny Duffy – 1.0 WAR, 0.60 ERA in 30 innings.  Duffy’s velocity is the highest it’s been since 2016.  His peripherals are strong, though he does owe some of his success to a .247 batting average on balls in play and a 6.1% home run per flyball rate.  As you might expect, this has been the best five-start stretch of Duffy’s entire 197-start career.  Duffy, 32, once tweeted, “Bury me a Royal” in response to December 2017 trade rumors.  So you’d think the Royals will find a way to work out a new deal with him.
  • Lance Lynn – 0.9 WAR, 1.82 ERA in 24 2/3 innings.  Lynn missed a couple weeks with a trapezius strain, but before that he whiffed 21 batters against zero walks in a pair of starts.  Lynn turns 34 next week, but if he remains healthy for the rest of the season he’s setting up for at least a three-year deal.
  • Carlos Rodon – 0.9 WAR, 0.72 ERA in 25 innings.  Lynn’s rotation-mate with the White Sox has been one of the offseason’s best signings at just $3MM.  He tossed a no-hitter against the Indians and has given up only two runs all year.  Among those with at least 20 innings, Rodon ranks eighth in baseball with a 37.9 K%.  He’d never previously whiffed batters at this rate over any prior four-start stretch.  Rodon’s 94.9 mile per hour average velocity is the best of his career, and he won’t turn 29 until December.  With a clean bill of health, Rodon could be one of the winter’s most intriguing free agent starting pitchers.
  • Kevin Gausman – 0.8 WAR, 2.04 ERA in 39 2/3 innings.  Gausman, 30, is underlining the fact that his excellent 2020 season for the Giants was no fluke.  In the era of five-inning starts, Gausman ranks fifth in MLB at 6.53 per outing.  Like Lynn, he’ll come free of a qualifying offer.
  • Anthony DeSclafani – 0.8 WAR, 2.00 ERA in 36 innings.  Of the six pitchers who have made starts for the Giants so far this year, five of them will be free agents after the season.  Four of them have an ERA of 2.04 or lower.  The Giants appear to have another successful reclamation project on their hands in DeSclafani.
  • Several other impending free agent starters currently sport a sub-3.00 ERA: Johnny Cueto, J.A. Happ, Alex Wood, Marcus Stroman, Michael Pineda, Trevor Bauer, and Wade Miley.

Now Offering Free Trial For Trade Rumors Front Office

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Many MLBTR readers currently enjoy our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription service.  Aside from supporting the website directly, benefits include the removal of ads, exclusive MLB articles, and members-only live chats.  For those of you who have been sitting on the fence, we’re now offering a free trial!  You can check the service out for a month for free, no credit card required.  Click here and use the “free trial” button if you’d like to give it a try!

Why Subscribe To Trade Rumors Front Office?

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Many regular MLBTR readers have decided to support the website with a subscription.  Sign up or just check out all the benefits here!  Benefits include an ad-free browsing experience on the website and in the app, a weekly mailbag from me, exclusive articles and chats from Steve Adams and Connor Byrne, and a subscriber-only discussion forum.  The cost is $29.89 per year, or you can sign up for $2.99 per month to give it a trial run.  Here are a bunch of real quotes from current subscribers:

Becoming an MLB Front Office suscriber was an easy decision. My favorite benefits are the members-only chats – in which I’ve had at least one question answered every time I’ve submitted – and the exclusive e-mails throughout each week with additional insights from the staff. And this is on top of the standard work they do to keep their audience up to date on all the transactions – real or speculative – in baseball. A $30 annual membership is a bargain for what they provide. – Greg S.

I enjoy all of the extras you get with being a member, but especially the mailbag with Tim. He always gives well thought out, in depth answers to every question. And the couple of times my questions didn’t make his mailbag, it was added into the Friday chat and answered there. Totally worth the minor investment. – Marc B.

For several years, I clicked onto MLB Trade Rumors daily, even in the off-season, reading the jot casts, injury reports, etc. Of all of the fantasy baseball sites (and MLB non-fantasy sites) it was easily my favorite.  But when I became a “Front Office” subscriber, the experience only deepened-having experts answer my questions, reading other insightful questions and answers, and having access to additional information is something easily worth the small investment.  I don’t play any other fantasy sports, but I can attest that MLB Trade Rumors “Front Office” makes you feel like a big-league general manager. I highly recommend! – Randall

Front office has been worth the investment and more so far. I love the weekly mail bags, the chats and all of the interaction with Tim, Steve, etc.. I think supporting and being apart of TRFO is the least I can do as a fan of MLBTR for as long as I can remember. Having the badge is cool too! Check it out, you will not be disappointed! – Zack from Philly

I enjoy the regular e-mails. Honestly, I was happy enough to support MLBTR, a service I was enjoying for years both on the site and using the app, but the e-mails have added even more substance. They’re well-researched and provide topical analysis, but there’s plenty of stuff to chew on regarding prospects, future contracts, etc. as well. – Brian H.

I subscribed to MLBTR Front office originally in order to merely express my support of the site (later than I really should have). I didn’t really consider any of the “perks.”  But I have found that the extra articles are very in-depth and stray from the usual pieces we get. And the members chat forum is another interesting feature.  Mr. Dierkes and the staff have also been very helpful with any specific questions I have had. Completely worth it. – Danny B.

I have read MLBTR for free almost daily since about 2012, so I mostly signed up for the Front Office subscription as a way to support the best baseball website I have ever seen. I didn’t expect to use much of the services, but I have been happily surprised at how entertaining the live chat services are. They are a fun way to relax while on lunch break, and I often read the transcript while eating dinner. The writers are witty and the chatters seem to compete with each other in making jokes and slight references to old baseball films. – Luke G.

I’m thrilled to be a member of the MLBTR Front Office! Love the exclusive chats (and that they come straight to my email account)! And going ad-free is always an excellent benefit. – Ross

I really look forward to the recurring mailbag Q&A from Tim Dierkes. It seems like he responds to virtually everybody and his answers are always really thoughtful and insightful. Also, considering that I check MLBTR almost daily, it was important to me to feel like I was supporting the cause and for less than $3 a month, subscribing to MLBTR Front Office was a no-brainer for me. – Russell C.

I love my subscription, especially the mailbag where we can email questions to have them considered and answered directly. I find that email series warrants my Front Office subscription on its own. I also like getting the insider emails with in depth and interesting analysis that you won’t find anywhere else. – Dave

Check out Trade Rumors Front Office today!

Carlos Correa vs. Trevor Story

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In the comment section on my recent 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, there was a lot of debate about the merits of shortstops Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, who seem to clearly fall behind Corey Seager in the upcoming free agent class.  Which player will have greater earning power in free agency?

Some points of comparison:

Age on Opening Day 2022

  • Correa: 27.54 years
  • Story: 29.39 years
  • Difference: 1.85 years

Age is a crucial factor in free agent contract length, as teams want to avoid as many decline years as possible.  Capturing a player’s age 27 season in free agency is a rare thing.  In the cases of Bryce Harper (13 years), Manny Machado (10 years), and Jason Heyward (eight years), teams were actually able to capture age 26.  There are not any other recent cases of free agent deals that included age 26 or 27.

Machado signed for ten years and $300MM, while the Mets recently extended Francisco Lindor for ten years and $341MM, albeit with deferred money.  The players were paid through age 35 and 37, respectively.  A contract running through age 37, as Lindor’s does, is pretty rare.  I think teams will be looking to commit to Correa and Story through age 35 or 36, at most.  Paying through age 35 would mean a nine-year deal for Correa, though that might be a long shot given his inconsistency and injury history.  It’d mean a seven-year deal for Story.  Those terms would only be available if the players are considered highly desirable after strong 2021 seasons.

Offense

Rest of 2021 Season ZiPs/Steamer projections in wRC+

  • Correa: 125 / 118
  • Story: 102 / 103

2019 to present wRC+

  • Correa: 126
  • Story: 117

2018 to present wRC+

  • Correa: 115
  • Story: 121

2018 was Story’s best year (128 wRC+) and one of Correa’s worst (101), so whether you include it makes a big difference.  But it’s pretty clear that Correa has a higher ceiling, with marks of 136 in 2015, 152 in 2017, and 143 in 2019.  As we’ll discuss later, Correa was quite clearly affected after returning from a back injury in 2018, so I think the “2019 to present” numbers are a better reflection of his true ability.

Why use wRC+?  It’s park-adjusted, so it neutralizes the fact that Story has played 50.7% of his games in Coors Field.  If you cite straight-up numbers with no adjustment, you’d clearly prefer Story.  I think any MLB team interested in Story would attempt to neutralize the effects of Coors, though.  It is not as simple as looking at Story’s work on the road and assuming that’s how he’d play for a new team in a neutral ballpark.  But since 2018, Story does have a huge split: a 136 wRC+ at home, and 105 on the road.  In terms of triple slash, Story is at .266/.327/.450 on the road since 2018, and .316/.379/.642 at home.

Story may follow the path of Matt Holliday.  From 2005-07, Holliday posted an even more extreme 166 at home and 108 on the road.  He was not a 108 wRC+ hitter after leaving Coors, however, putting up an excellent 145 mark from 2008-13, mostly for the Cardinals.  Holliday was able to spend all of his 2009 contract year away from Coors, posting a 141 wRC+ for the A’s and Cardinals that likely helped him land the largest contract of the 2009-10 offseason.  DJ LeMahieu is another example of a former Rockie who continued to hit well after posting extreme splits.

In the likely event Story is traded this summer, he’ll have a chance to demonstrate his standard 120 wRC+ production in a more neutral environment for a few months.  That’s more likely than a Correa trade, and being free of a qualifying offer would be an advantage for Story.

It makes little sense to remove park factors, when Minute Maid Park has suppressed offense (outside of 2019) while Coors Field has inflated it by a minimum of 12% during Story’s career.  But for comparison, Correa has hit .276/.352/.483 since 2017 and .258/.334/.453 since 2018.  Story stands at .278/.342/.524 since 2017 and .291/.353/.547 since 2018.  Story has reached the 35 home run mark twice, while Correa’s career-best is 24.

As for Correa, what about the sign-stealing scandal?  According to MLB’s report, the bulk of the Astros’ sign-stealing efforts were in 2017, in which Correa put up a career-best 152 wRC+.  He was excellent both at home and on the road, though the scheme is only thought to have occurred at the Astros’ home park.  MLB’s report suggested the Astros did not utilize trash-can banging in 2018, when Correa dropped down to 101.  That 101 mark may be explained by a back injury, which I’ll get into later.  The Astros also weren’t thought to be cheating in 2019, but Correa bounced back to a 143 mark.

Astros fan Tony Adams analyzed home data for the Astros from 2017, and found 140 total trash can bangs for George Springer and 97 for Correa.  If potential free agent suitors consider Springer and Correa equally complicit in the sign-stealing, it would bode well for Correa, since the scandal didn’t seem to have much effect on Springer’s market.  Ultimately, like Springer, Correa just needs to go out and have a big contract year if he wants to get paid.  There’s a solid argument that in a neutral ballpark, he’s a better hitter than Story.

Defense

By measure of UZR/150, Story is at 3.9 since 2018, while Correa sits at -3.5.  Story also leads in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), though that’s a cumulative stat and he played an additional 1,042 innings in the field – 47% more than Correa did.  Outs Above Average, which is part of Statcast, is more sophisticated than UZR or DRS, but doesn’t necessarily tell a clear story.  Here’s each player’s OAA by year:

  • 2016: Story 4 (823 innings), Correa -17 (1355.6 innings)
  • 2017: Story 7 (1185.3 innings), Correa -3 (946 innings)
  • 2018: Story -5 (1372.6 innings), Correa 17 (959 innings)
  • 2019: Story 18 (1257.3 innings), Correa 9 (642.3 innings)
  • 2020: Story 2 (491.3 innings), Correa 3 (475 innings)

It would appear that Story’s defense slipped to a below-average level in only one season, 2018, on which OAA and UZR/150 agree.  There’s no clear injury in 2018 to explain the lapse, though he miss a few late September games with elbow soreness.  Story was able to improve his range and reduce his errors in 2019, and seems to have settled in as an above-average defender.

We’ll talk about durability in the next section, but with Correa we have a player who has tallied 1,000 innings in the field exactly once, in his 2016 sophomore season.  UZR suggested he was a bit below average that year, while OAA had him as the game’s worst defensive shortstop.

2018 is particularly odd for Correa, where OAA shows him as the game’s fourth-best defensive shortstop while UZR/150 has him as the fourth-worst.  That was a year in which Correa avoided the IL until late June, at which point he missed over a month due to a back injury.  He acknowledged that the injury played a role in his plummeting offense, and his OAA was lower after the injury.  MLB.com’s Mike Petriello suggested to me that the Astros’ frequent shifting, and UZR’s lack of accounting for that, might account for the difference between the two stats.

Correa suffered another major injury toward the end of May 2019 – a cracked rib that cost him two months – as well as more back pain in late August of that year.  Nonetheless, his defense doesn’t seem to have suffered.

Both Story and Correa have been above average defenders since 2019, ranking fourth and ninth respectively in OAA.  Story is carried largely by his 2019 season, for which he was voted a Gold Glove finalist for the first time.  Though he has dropped off so far this year, Story has often ranked among the top 40 in the game in terms of sprint speed, which is a factor in his defense.  I think it’s safe to say that Story is the superior defender.  It’s worth noting that Correa has already expressed a willingness to move to third base if needed, while the topic hasn’t really been broached for Story.

Durability

Story was drafted 45th overall by the Rockies out of high school in 2011.  As a minor leaguer in 2014, he missed roughly a month due to hairline fracture on his left pinky finger.  The Rockies traded longtime shortstop Troy Tulowitzki in July 2015, taking on Jose Reyes in the process.  In 2016, Reyes was suspended through May to begin the year under the league’s domestic violence policy, opening the door for Story to make the team out of camp.  After becoming the Rockies’ starter in 2016, Story’s season ended on July 30th due to a torn UCL in his left thumb that would require surgery.  It was still good for a fourth-place Rookie of the Year finish.

A new injury popped up in May 2017, as Story strained his left shoulder and missed the minimum two weeks.  In late September 2018, Story exited a game with right elbow soreness, but he missed only five games.  In June of 2019, Story injured his right thumb after a headfirst slide, with the resulting IL stint costing him 11 games.

That’s the full extent of Story’s injury history in his five-plus years.  He’s played in 522 games since 2017, 14th in all of MLB.  Story was able to recover quickly from minor injuries in 2017, ’18, and ’19, and can safely be penciled in for 145-150 games annually.

Correa was drafted first overall by the Astros out of high school in 2012.  He dealt with only minor injuries in the minor leagues until June 2014, when he suffered a fractured right fibula sliding into third base and had to undergo surgery.  By January 2015, his ankle was back to 100%.

Correa opened the 2015 season at Double-A, a defensible choice since he’d yet to play at that level.  He reached Triple-A by May and went on to make his big league debut on June 8th.  The timing worked out well for the Astros to receive part of a seventh year of control of Correa and also avoid Super Two status, but his starting the year in the minors was justified.  Correa played 99 dynamic regular season games in 2016, avoiding injury and winning the Rookie of the Year award.

2016, just Correa’s age 21 season, was perhaps the best of his career.  He missed three games in June with an ankle sprain and another four with shoulder inflammation, but avoided the IL.  Correa would play 153 games in the regular season that year, the only time he’s exceeded 110 Major League games in a season.

Correa’s injury history is significant, but also limited to the three-year period of 2017-19.  On July 17th, 2017, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, “Correa left Monday’s 9-7 loss to the Mariners in the fourth inning after injuring the thumb on a swing, the same thumb he originally hurt sliding head-first into home July 4 in Atlanta.”  The torn thumb ligament required surgery and cost him more than six weeks.  He returned successfully in September of that year.

Correa’s next IL stint was in June of 2018 due to a back injury.  Like the thumb the prior year, this injury cost him about a month and a half.  Though he returned in mid-August, the issue lingered and affected his performance for the rest of the season.  From 2015-19, 2018 is Correa’s only season with a wRC+ below 123, and it’s easy to attribute his overall 101 mark that year to his back injury.  Correa had a 128 wRC+ before the injury, and just a 45 mark thereafter.

Correa’s back healed up and he started yoga in the 2018-19 offseason, but a cracked rib suffered in late May 2019 cost him a full two months.  Oddly, Correa said the rib was cracked by what must have been a particularly aggressive massage.  After he’d been back for about a month, he went on the IL again due to a back injury.  Since then, Correa has avoided the IL, playing in 58 of 60 games in 2020.

Both Story and Correa have been starters since 2016.  Story has played in 619 games – 19% more than Correa’s 520.  Is Correa, who has yet to reach his 27th birthday, simply an injury-prone player?  Or might he settle in at 150 games per year if he avoids headfirst slides and rough massages?  If I was looking at signing him, it’s his back that I’d be concerned about, as it cost him roughly two and a half months during the 2018-19 seasons.  150 games this year would go a long way.

Overall Value

Much of Correa’s value is packed into the earlier years of his career, when he put up 13.7 WAR in 361 games from 2015-17.  He’s managed only 6.1 WAR since, roughly the same as what Story did in 2019 alone.  Career-wise, Correa leads Story 19.8 to 17.9.

From 2018 to present, Correa has been good for 3.7 WAR per 650 plate appearances, while Story is at 5.4.  From 2019 to present, those numbers are 4.7 for Correa and 5.5 for Story.  But here’s how each player projects for the rest of the season per 650 PA, according to FanGraphs:

  • Correa ZiPS: 5.0
  • Correa Steamer: 4.1
  • Story ZiPS: 3.5
  • Story Steamer: 2.9

If you buy those projections, Correa will be the better per-game player moving forward, likely due to the age difference.  Aside from the durability question, that is what MLB teams must determine when offering these players contracts: who will be better over the next seven years or so?

With that lengthy comparison of Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, I turn it over to you.

Commenter Mute Button Now Available

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For those looking to customize their commenting experience here at MLB Trade Rumors, the website now has a mute button available.  Once you’re logged in, you’ll see that each comment has the option to like, reply, flag, or mute.  If you decide you would prefer to hide all comments from a specific user, including all comments on a thread they’ve started, hit the mute link.  A box will pop up asking you to confirm.  You can edit your mute list on your profile page.  The Trade Rumors iOS app now has a flag button, but does not yet have the mute button.

Moving forward, the comment section will now be open on political and COVID-19 posts, while remaining closed on those related to domestic violence.  Please review our commenting policy, which still does not allow attacks, insults, trolling, or harassment.  Off-topic commentary is also not allowed, so please do not leave comments that are unrelated to the subject matter of the post.  If you see comments that violate our policy, please flag them, consider muting the person, and do not reply.  We can’t attempt to assess who started it.

We’ve created a “View Comments” button on each post, so that entering the comment section will be a conscious choice.  Consider that you may be better off sitting out certain discussions.  We’ve set up some guard rails, but the comment section reflects the attitudes and opinions of many different people.  We’ll try to review everything that violates our policy, but we can’t moderate out stupidity, insensitivity, and various other subjective things.  We’re hopeful that the mute button will allow MLBTR commenters more control over their experience.

2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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Francisco Lindor is now under contract with the Mets through 2031, and they’ll be cutting him checks for ten years beyond that due to deferred money.  Before accounting for Lindor’s $50MM in deferrals, his $341MM contract ranks third in MLB history behind Mookie Betts and Mike Trout.  But the net present value of Lindor’s deal is $332.39MM, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, and it’s been previously reported that Betts’ $365MM extension actually had a present-day value of $306.66MM.  Fernando Tatis Jr.s’ 14-year, $340MM extension actually outranks Lindor and Betts in that sense, even though Lindor’s final million bucks was clearly tacked on so he and his agents at SportsMeter can at least nominally say he passed the Padres’ shortstop.

In our interpretation, Trout’s ten year, $360MM extension from March 2019 still reigns supreme among baseball contracts.  Though Trout tore up his existing contract and technically put pen to paper on a 12-year, $426.5MM deal with the Angels, he had two years and $66.5MM remaining on his old deal at the time.  The Angels committed $360MM in new money, which is the figure we think matters and allows for accurate comparison.  Baseball’s first true $400MM man has yet to be anointed, and that’s unlikely to happen as part of the 2021-22 free agent class.  MLB Trade Rumors maintains the definitive list of the largest MLB contracts here.

Though he had fallen short of our top ten back in March, Astros righty Lance McCullers Jr. is also off the board.  McCullers signed a five-year, $85MM extension to remain with the Astros, a reminder that Boras Corporation clients don’t always explore free agency.  McCullers had age on his side, as he doesn’t turn 28 until October.  The Astros were willing to grant McCullers a fifth year despite the fact that he has never pitched as many as 140 Major League innings in a single season, postseason included.  That’s partially due to his November 2018 Tommy John surgery, from which McCullers is fully recovered, as well as the shortened 60-game MLB season in 2020.

As a catcher slated to hit free agency in his age 32 season, the Royals’ Salvador Perez also failed to crack my top ten last month.  Perez did better than I thought, with his agents at Beverly Hills Sports Council securing a four-year, $82MM extension.  Perez will be nearly four years younger than Yadier Molina was upon starting his three-year extension, so it makes sense that Perez would command a longer term.  Perez was also able to inch past Molina’s $20MM average annual value, becoming the third catcher to reach that mark along with standard-bearer J.T. Realmuto.

The 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings below represent my estimation of the players’ earning power, with the uncertainty of the expiring collective bargaining agreement set aside.  You can see the full list of 2021-22 MLB free agents here.

1. Corey Seager.  Even with Lindor locked up, the 2021-22 free agent shortstop class still includes seven starting-caliber players in Seager, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Javier Baez, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, and Jose Iglesias.  Everything we said about Seager last time remains true: it’s exceedingly rare to find a shortstop who can hit this well.  It may be foolish to try to read tea leaves based on 49 plate appearances this year, but Seager’s walk rate is higher than ever so far and perhaps this will be the first time he reaches 70 free passes in a season.  Will the Dodgers allow their star shortstop to reach free agency?  Jon Heyman provided an update on March 30th, noting that the Dodgers “made an effort on Seager,” which obviously did not come to fruition.  As he approaches his 27th birthday this month, Seager has a clear benchmark to aim for in Lindor’s $341MM.

2. Trevor Bauer.  The most notable recent development involving Bauer was MLB’s collection of multiple baseballs he threw during his April 7th start at Oakland.  According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, “The balls had visible markings and were sticky, and were sent to the league offices for further inspection, the sources said.”  Rosenthal the baseballs were “brought to the umpires’ attention.”  This occurred only weeks after after MLB sent a memo to teams “alerting them of plans to crack down on pitchers’ use of foreign substances to manipulate pitch movement,” as Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post put it.  Per Janes’ article, the memo said collected baseballs would be tested at a third-party lab and players will be subject to discipline.

Bauer, who has been outspoken about pitchers’ widespread use of foreign substances on baseballs, had choice words in the wake of Rosenthal’s article.  It’s unclear whether Bauer was even being targeted in this instance, and it seems unlikely MLB could make a suspension stick (pun intended).

Most likely, this story is much ado about nothing, and will have no effect on Bauer’s earning power should he decide to opt out after 2021.  Given the structure of his contract, most feel that Bauer is more likely to opt out after 2022.  That’s why we didn’t include him in the snazzy image used in this post.

3. Carlos Correa.  The Astros attempted to extend Correa by his self-imposed Opening Day deadline, offering six years and $120MM or five years and $125MM.  The six-year offer is an exact match for Xander Bogaerts’ contract with the Red Sox, which Bogaerts signed coming off a 133 wRC+, 4.9 WAR season.  That contract,  covering ages 27-32, contains an opt-out after the third year and a very achievable seventh-year vesting option.  The extension still felt a bit light at the time for Bogaerts.  It still seems like a reasonable comparable for Correa at present, who hasn’t topped 110 games in the regular season since 2016 (though he was healthy in 2020).

If Correa is able to hit to his abilities (a 130 wRC+ or better) while playing 140+ games, he’ll prove himself right and probably at least double the Astros’ offer as a free agent.  Such a contract will probably come from another team, as Correa said of the Astros, “We didn’t get close at all.  There were not really any negotiations.”  He added, “Once I hit free agency, I’m going to look for a big, long contract. They made it very clear that they did not believe in that.”  Lindor’s contract is an obvious benchmark, with Correa noting in February, “I’m the one, I feel like with Lindor, that can do both — offensively and defensively — at a high level.  I always have the option of going to third base if it’s needed (for a team).”

Lindor’s ten-year, $341MM contract, which has a present-day value of about $332MM, pays him through age 37.  Manny Machado was paid through age 35 on a ten-year deal worth $300MM.  Correa may have a ten-year deal in that price range in his sights, or he could tack on additional years to squeeze out a few extra dollars as Bryce Harper did.

4. Trevor Story.  Is it too early to start the Trevor Story Trade Watch?  The Rockies have virtually no chance of making the playoffs.  Assuming the qualifying offer system and its exemption for traded players remains in place, Story would get a little boost over rival shortstops Seager and Correa, who do not figure to be traded this summer.  Plus, Story would have two months to start building a case that he’s a 120 wRC+ hitter outside of Coors Field.

5. Freddie Freeman.  Asked about progress on a contract extension with the Braves, Freeman told MLB.com’s Mark Bowman on March 24th, “We haven’t been approached yet.”  A week later on Opening Day, Freeman said, “There is nothing to report on.”  For as much of a foregone conclusion Freeman staying with the Braves seems to be, the club appears willing to let the reigning NL MVP reach the open market or at least get weeks away from it.  I could see a sixth year becoming a sticking point.  Paul Goldschmidt signed a five-year extension with the Cardinals in March 2019, but he was new to the team, wasn’t on the open market, and didn’t have an MVP on his résumé.  The Braves haven’t gone past four years in free agency since signing B.J. Upton in November 2012.

6. Kris Bryant.  Bryant has been overshadowed by the shortstops of the 2021-22 free agent class, even though the Cubs and baseball fans have been talking about his free agency since his delayed call-up in 2015.  Less than 7% of the Cubs’ season is in the books, but in 44 plate appearances in 2021 Bryant has begun to erase the ugly 147 PA from 2020.  In a full-length season, Bryant has never posted a wRC+ below 126.  If this is a four or five-win season in the making, Bryant could vault up this list in a hurry.  With the Cubs currently sporting a 12.4% chance at making the playoffs, he’s a prime July trade candidate.

7. Michael Conforto.  With a 132 wRC+ from 2017-20, Conforto’s track record speaks for itself.  That’s why his first seven games of 2021 should be of little concern and shouldn’t affect his free agent value.  Though SNY’s Andy Martino reported on March 19th that the Mets made an offer to Conforto, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo wrote, “Shortly before Lindor signed his deal last week [March 31st], a source said the Mets had yet to exchange numbers with Conforto’s agent.”

The day of Lindor’s agreement, Mike Puma of the New York Post wrote, “With the Mets focused on Lindor, extension talks with Michael Conforto fizzled, with the two sides in different realms regarding contract value, according to a source. Though Conforto in spring training backed away from the idea of Opening Day as a hard deadline to negotiate, the likelihood of him testing free agency is strong.”  With a typical year, Conforto will be the top free agent outfielder on the market.

8. Clayton Kershaw.  There’s nothing new to report on Kershaw, who recently turned 33 years old.  Speculation, including from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, seems to be in the three-year, $90MM range for Kershaw.  The Dodgers remain the favorite, with the Rangers lurking as the hometown pick.

9. Noah Syndergaard.  If McCullers is worth five years and $85MM, Syndergaard deserves a spot on this list.  The Mets’ flamethrowing righty, who turns 29 in August, is currently on the mend from March 2020 Tommy John surgery.  Syndergaard was said to have hit 96 miles per hour in a mid-March bullpen session and remains on track for a mid-June big league return.  That could give Syndergaard more than 20 starts to prove his health prior to free agency.

10.  Dylan Bundy.  The Angels’ Opening Day starter continues to see his stock rise after three strong starts to open the season.  His velocity is up a full two miles per hour from 2020.  In his 14 starts with the Angels dating back to last year, Bundy has a stellar 27.3 K% and 6.4 BB%.  Bundy won’t turn 29 until November, meaning he’s more than a year and a half younger than fellow free agents Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman.  Drafted fourth overall by the Orioles out of high school in 2011, Bundy seems to be realizing his promise at the opportune time.

I missed this last time, but new Cardinal Nolan Arenado said in February that there is a “very, very high chance” that he will not be opting out of the remaining five years and $164MM on his deal, suggesting that staying put is “part of how we made the contract,” where the Redbirds added one year and $15MM to his deal.  So, there’s little reason to include him in these rankings.  Meanwhile, the Mariners’ James Paxton had his hopes for a comeback season dashed, as the need for Tommy John surgery arose 21 pitches into his season.

Aside from the aforementioned Gausman and Stroman, Max Scherzer, Lance Lynn, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Eduardo Rodriguez remain on the outskirts of the top ten.

Youth Baseball Coaches: Try Baseball Force Out Teacher

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I’m Tim Dierkes, the owner of MLB Trade Rumors. If you’ll indulge me for a minute, I want to talk about an app I’ve created for youth baseball and softball coaches that has nothing to do with MLB or rumors.

How many times have you observed this scene in a youth baseball or softball game?

An infielder makes an amazing stop on a ground ball. It’s the highlight of the kid’s budding career to date. And then…NOOOOOO!!! Why did you throw it to THAT base? Or…why did you think you could just step on THAT base??! We’ve been over this in practice!

Fundamentals are crucial to understanding and playing baseball or softball. Chief among them: where are the force outs? Our free Baseball Force Out Teacher app for iPhones and iPads is the perfect at-home supplement to any player or watcher’s education.

The eight different baserunner scenarios are randomly presented, and this fun game-like app drills home the correct answers to one crucial question: Where are the force outs? Simply play it over and over until force outs are second nature!

Plus, if you’re a coach looking to freestyle or elaborate on infield scenarios, the app has a handy whiteboard feature.

Download the free app today!

Upcoming Changes To MLBTR Commenting Policy

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My April 6th poll regarding the MLBTR comment section received over 5,800 responses, and the post had over 650 comments.  The MLBTR readership is passionate about how we handle commenting on sensitive topics like domestic violence, COVID-19, and politics.  The poll results:

  • 67.1% would like comments to remain closed on posts related to domestic violence
  • 63.8% would like comments to remain closed on posts related to COVID-19
  • 56.6% would like comments to remain closed on posts related to politics, such as MLB’s decision to move the All-Star Game out of Georgia
  • 74.4% would like MLBTR to continue attempting to remove comments that are unrelated to the topic of the post
  • 73.0% would use a button that allows you to mute specific commenters

I gave this data a lot of thought, and I also gave consideration to the individual comments left on the post.  I’ve gotten emails from people saying that they’re done with MLBTR because we have been closing comments on sensitive topics.  I’ve also gotten emails from people saying they will stop visiting MLBTR if we open comments on sensitive topics.  I hope people don’t leave.  We’re doing the best we can.  It’s clear there’s not a solution that will make everyone happy.

After much deliberation, here is what I’ve decided to do.  These new policies are subject to change.

  • We are going to create a mute button.  You will be able to easily mute all comments from a specific user, which will include the entirety of a thread started by that person.
  • We are going to continue closing comments on domestic violence posts.  I’m glad two-thirds of respondents agree with that choice.  There isn’t really a baseball discussion I want to host on those posts.
  • We are going to open comments on COVID-19 posts.  We started closing these over a year ago, when there was a lot unknown about COVID.  At this point, I hope it’s possible to discuss the implications of baseball COVID cases on rosters without debating the disease itself.  I don’t see why a baseball website should host political opinions or arguments on COVID.  This will be a test to see whether those comment sections can be apolitical.
  • We are going to open comments in cases where baseball and politics intersect, such as MLB’s decision to move the All-Star Game out of Georgia.  This was a difficult decision.  My feeling is that each individual already has the ability to “close” comments on a given post, by not clicking to reveal its comments.  I lean toward putting the power in the hands of readers: if you feel that the comments on certain posts or topics are not worth reading, you should not read them.  And if you do decide to wade into a sensitive topic, that is at your own risk, and you’ll have the ability to mute people you feel are not adding value.  You’ll also have the “flag” button for comments that violate our policy, which will be added to the Trade Rumors iOS app soon.
  • With the above point in mind, I am going to make a few changes to ensure that viewing the comments is an intentional experience.  On desktop web as well as the iOS app, rather than have the comments show automatically below the post, we are going to put in a View Comments button, similar to what we’ve long had on mobile web.  You will have to purposely click View Comments to see them.

As a reminder, our commenting policy still requires that you avoid the following:

  • Attacks, insults, or trolling toward other commenters, the MLBTR staff, journalists, team personnel, players, or agents
  • Otherwise harassing other commenters in any way
  • Commentary that is unrelated to the subject matter of the post.  Take special note of this one.  74% of respondents don’t want off-topic comments, and once comments are open on COVID-19 and political posts, there will be little excuse for that.  A post about a Braves IL move is not an opening to discuss the All-Star Game decision; there will be a contained post for that.
  • Inappropriate language
  • Inappropriate avatars or images
  • Spam links or self-promotion
  • Personal contact information in the comments section

Specifically when it comes to attacks, insults, trolling, and harassment, doing this will still get you banned.  It is also important to note that we don’t try to assess who “started it,” and someone else getting away with a violation doesn’t justify yours.  We catch as much as we can.  If someone trolls or insults you, we ask that you flag their comment and resist the temptation to respond in kind.  Once the mute button is available, we will ask that you flag their comment and then mute them.

As I mentioned, this is subject to change.  If we find that commenting policy violations increase drastically and/or require a greatly increased amount of moderation time from our staff, we may choose to close comments to better focus on the core aspects of running MLB Trade Rumors.

These policy changes will go into effect when our mute button is rolled out on the website, likely by the end of April.  Until then, this policy remains in place.  The mute option will not initially be available in the Trade Rumors app, but we’ll get to work on that.  Once that’s done I intend to turn our focus to other ways we can improve MLBTR, and I’ll be surveying readers on that topic.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

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