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Where Do The Cubs Go From Here?

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Last week’s trades of Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Kris Bryant were painful for Cubs fans.  Rizzo had been a Cub for 9.5 years.  Baez was drafted by the Cubs and his tenure lasted a decade.  Bryant was with the team for eight years after being drafted.  By 3pm Friday, all three were in different uniforms.  We can debate separately why it came to this, but today the question is, where do the Cubs go from here?

Let’s take stock of what the Cubs currently have at each position.

Catcher

Willson Contreras, 29, is under team control through 2022.  As Contreras put it recently, “This is the only team I’ve played for, and if they want to rebuild around me, I’m happy to talk.”  Given GM Jed Hoyer’s frustration in failing to lock up Rizzo, Baez, and Bryant, the Cubs may not necessarily be able to match up with Contreras, in which case an offseason trade would make sense.

22-year-old Miguel Amaya, the heir apparent, currently sports an odd Double-A batting line of .215/.406/.304.  FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen recently downgraded Amaya to a 45 grade, on account of a relative lack of power.  He hasn’t played since June 3rd due to an injury.

There are no franchise catchers in the 2021-22 free agent class, so the Cubs have all of 2022 to figure out if their future starter behind the dish will be Contreras, Amaya, or neither.

First Base

Rizzo was a mainstay at first base for the Cubs since 2012, but he was traded to the Yankees last Thursday.  Last March, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported the Cubs offered him a five-year, $70MM extension.  Technically, the Cubs could bring Rizzo back in the offseason, but that will probably only happen if he finds the open market terribly disappointing.  And even in that case, he may prefer to play for a team with a better shot at reaching the playoffs.

In Rizzo’s absence, Patrick Wisdom has been playing first base for the Cubs.  Wisdom, who turns 30 later this month, owns a 142 wRC+ in 186 plate appearances this year.  More time will be needed to determine whether Wisdom is a valuable late bloomer, or if he’s a journeyman having a good couple of months.  Wisdom is nowhere near free agency and won’t even be arbitration eligible until after 2023, so the Cubs can afford to give him regular playing time in 2022.  He’s played more third than first base, so that could be his ultimate spot.  The Cubs could also take a look some point at Alfonso Rivas, who has a 130 wRC+ at Triple-A despite modest power.

This winter the Cubs could hit the market for a veteran placeholder in the mold of Brandon Belt or C.J. Cron, if they decide to play Wisdom mostly at third base in 2022.

Second Base

The Cubs were surprisingly able to land Nick Madrigal from the White Sox for Craig Kimbrel in one of their trade deadline deals.  Madrigal, 25 in March, is under team control through 2026.  He’s out for the season due to a torn hamstring, but figures to be a mainstay in the Cubs’ lineup for years.

Shortstop

In 2019, Baez settled in as the Cubs’ everyday shortstop, a year after he finished second in the MVP voting.  He was a fan favorite, but again, the Cubs couldn’t find common ground on a contract extension.  Baez was traded to the Mets, where he’ll play shortstop until Francisco Lindor returns from an injury, and then switch to second base to finish out the season alongside his friend.

Last April, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported that in spring 2020, the Cubs offered Baez a contract in the range of $160-170MM.  ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested the $180MM range.  That’s not an amount I expect Baez to approach in free agency this winter, especially with significant competition at shortstop.  This is a case where the Cubs keeping the door open to a reunion could potentially matter, but like Rizzo he’d still have to experience a disappointing market first.  The lack of a collective bargaining agreement could further complicate matters.

Under the Theo Epstein regime, the Cubs were not opposed to making a free agent strike if they liked the player, even if their perceived competitive window was not yet open.  The idea worked poorly with Edwin Jackson, and well with Jon Lester.  In that sense, it wouldn’t be crazy to see the Cubs make a run at one of the jewels of the 2021-22 free agent class, Corey Seager or Carlos Correa.  Both are young enough that if 2022 and ’23 turn out to be rebuilding years for the Cubs, they’d still have a portion of the player’s prime.  The players might require a premium to enter into a rebuilding situation.

On the other hand, the Cubs’ $126MM deal for Yu Darvish will be nearly three years in the past when free agency opens, and the Ricketts family has not been flexing financial muscle in the interim.  The Cubs have only about $40MM committed to the 2022 payroll, with Jason Heyward, Kyle Hendricks, and David Bote.

Barring an unlikely major free agent signing, the Cubs’ future at shortstop involves Nico Hoerner and Ed Howard.  Hoerner figures to play the position in the immediate future.  Howard, who the Cubs drafted 16th overall out of high school last summer, might be the long-term answer.  Cristian Hernandez may be in that discussion as well, but both teenagers are several years away.

Third Base

Wisdom and Bote should be in the mix for the Cubs at the hot corner next year, with Matt Duffy headed to free agency.  Prospect Christopher Morel hasn’t done much with Double-A pitching so far this year, but if he figures it out he’ll enter the third base picture.  Even if Wisdom works out as a big league regular, the Cubs will be lacking at whichever infield corner he doesn’t play.  The free agent market doesn’t offer any exciting players, aside from Bryant.

Left Field

Ian Happ has drawn the Cubs’ left field assignment of late, though he’s having an abysmal year.  Making $4.1MM through arbitration this year, he won’t get much of a raise this winter, so the Cubs can afford another year to see if he can regain his hitting stroke.  A stopgap veteran addition would also make sense, with free agency featuring Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, and even players the Cubs have already tried like Kyle Schwarber and Joc Pederson.

Center Field

The Cubs are well-covered here, as prospect Brennen Davis was recently ranked 30th in the game by Baseball America.  Davis is playing well at Double-A this year, with a .267/.383/.515 line.  BA has suggested he may eventually move to right field, and at Double-A he’s spent more time in center but a fair bit in right.  You can safely pencil Davis in at one of those two spots – probably in late April next year once he’s done “working on his defense” (wink, wink).

Meanwhile in the Majors, with Happ struggling and Jake Marisnick traded, Rafael Ortega is attempting to win the Cubs’ regular center field job.  After a recent home run binge, the 30-year-old is up to a 144 wRC+ in 123 plate appearances.  Like Wisdom, it’s too early to say whether Ortega will establish himself as an above average big leaguer.  But the Cubs are in good position to let Ortega try for the rest of the year, and into 2022 if it goes well.

Right Field

With a 63 wRC+ this year, Jason Heyward’s offense has been reminiscent of his first year with the Cubs, when he surprisingly slumped to a 72 mark.  If his struggles persist, the Cubs are going to have better uses of the playing time.  Heyward is owed $44MM from 2022-23.  He remains the one large contract on the Cubs’ books, but only two years remain.

Greg Deichmann, who joined the Cubs in the Andrew Chafin trade with Oakland, is a name to watch in the team’s right field mix.  He posted a .433 OBP for the Triple-A Las Vegas Aviators and should be in the Majors soon.  The Cubs have a slew of other outfield prospects in the system, but most of them are further away.

Starting Rotation

Kyle Hendricks continues to be the rock of the Cubs’ rotation.  The low-key veteran can be retained through 2024 if the Cubs pick up his club option.  While Hendricks could be traded this winter, the 31-year-old soft-tosser could also be part of the next Cubs contender.  Hendricks seems like he’ll age gracefully, since he’s not dependent on velocity.

Adbert Alzolay has shown enough to have a rotation spot locked down for next year.  He’s got a 4.85 ERA in 19 starts, which isn’t great, but he probably won’t continue to see a quarter of his flyballs leave the yard.  Alzolay’s struggles against left-handed hitters have been pronounced, however: 19 home runs in 196 batters faced.  Still, the bar is pretty low to be in the Cubs’ 2022 rotation.  Alec Mills will still be around next year to fill a swingman role.

Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson are being stretched out for looks in the Cubs’ rotation down the stretch.  These are not pitchers the prospect hounds get particularly excited about, but the Cubs have plenty of opportunity for anyone who can capitalize.  Prospect gurus do get excited about Brailyn Marquez, who Baseball America ranked as the 99th-best prospect in the game.  However, the 22-year-old has yet to pitch this year due to a shoulder strain. Caleb Kilian, acquired in the Bryant deal, has pitched well at Double-A, so we could see him in the Majors relatively soon.

As it stands now, the Cubs simply don’t have the pitching in-house to get through the 2022 season, let alone compete.  It’s a rotation ripe for opportunistic free agent signings, a place where guys like Dylan Bundy or James Paxton can look to get their careers back on track before getting flipped for prospects.

Bullpen

The Cubs’ bullpen has been stripped of its three highest-leverage relievers: Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, and Andrew Chafin.  Codi Heuer, acquired in the Kimbrel deal, will take a spot.  Beyond him, I assume the Cubs will look to replicate one of their few successes of the previous offseason: the signings of Tepera and Chafin for a total of $3.55MM.  The goal will be to sign another batch of veteran relievers, coax good first halves out of them, and trade them for prospects at the deadline.

Conclusion

After all the star players were purged, the Cubs are frankly low on present talent.  For 2022, they’ve got massive holes throughout their lineup and pitching staff.  Their farm system has Davis plus various interesting players, but it’s not teeming with blue-chip prospects like the Rays, Mariners, Blue Jays, or Tigers.  Given their market size, it doesn’t seem like the Cubs should be dropping down to a bottom-10 payroll in the game.  But an analysis of the roster and farm system suggests the Cubs cannot spend their way back into contention, at least not in the 2021-22 offseason alone.  Last time it was a three-year rebuild, and to contend again with anything less will be a difficult or expensive feat.

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Padres Acquire Jake Marisnick From Cubs

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The Padres have acquired outfielder Jake Marisnick from the Cubs, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan.  Righty Anderson Espinoza heads to the Cubs in return, tweets Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Marisnick, 30, signed a $1.5MM free agent deal with the Cubs back in February.  He’s got a 95 wRC+ in 144 plate appearances this year.  A right-handed hitter, Marisnick has a 112 wRC+ against lefties in 198 plate appearances from 2019 to present.  Marisnick is known for his center field defense, but seemed to excel more in that area earlier in his career with the Astros.  He’ll supplement a Padres outfield that includes Tommy Pham, Trent Grisham, Wil Myers, and Jurickson Profar.

The Padres were in the mix for big names at the trade deadline, as always, but they came away with Marisnick, Daniel Hudson, and Adam Frazier after falling short on Max Scherzer and Jose Berrios.

Espinoza, 23, was considered one of the 20 best prospects in baseball prior to the 2016 and ’17 seasons.  Before 2016, Baseball America graded Espinoza as a 70 prospect, writing, “Espinoza’s precocious feel for a high-quality, three-pitch mix and efficient delivery are uncommon traits for a teen, to say the least.”  He was traded from the Red Sox to the Padres in July 2016 for Drew Pomeranz, going down for Tommy John surgery a year later and then again in April 2019.  Espinoza has pitched at High-A this year, remarkably his first pro ball work since 2016 – a gap of four years and eight months.  He’s got a 5.02 ERA, 29.4 K%, and 10.3 BB% in a dozen starts so far.

Red Sox Acquire Hansel Robles From Twins

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The Red Sox acquired reliever Hansel Robles from the Twins, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The Twins are including $500k in the deal, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). That should cover much of the remaining money owed to the right-hander, who signed a one-year, $2MM deal with the Twins this past winter. In exchange, the Twins will receive RHP Alex Scherff, the teams announced.

Robles fills a need for Boston as a hard-throwing righty in the pen. He will slot in somewhere behind setup man Adam Ottavino and closer Matt Barnes in the pecking order – though it’s worth noting that bullpen usage is hardly ever that clean, and Robles should no doubt expect some high-leverage work in the heart of the AL East playoff race.

Robles spent three and a half years with the Mets and two and a half years with the Angels before joining the Twins this offseason. He closed for a short time in LA, notching 23 saves in 2019 while tossing 7 2/3 innings and marking a stellar 2.48 ERA/2.88 FIP. He looked like a borderline elite bullpen arm at that point, but he hasn’t matched those run prevention numbers in the two seasons since.

The overall numbers for Robles this season aren’t all that confidence-inspiring: 45 appearances covering 44 innings with a 4.91 ERA/4.82 FIP worth -0.7 rWAR. He does have 10 saves as he stepped up to cover some high-leverage situations throughout the year. He’s struggled of late, however, with an 11.12 ERA in his last 12 appearances dating back to late June. He doesn’t have to be “the guy” in Boston, however, where he’ll make up just one part of manager Alex Cora’s final line of defense to close out games.

For the Twins, they are adding an intriguing bullpen arm to their system. The 23-year-old Scherff has split this year between High-A and Double-A, racking up exceptional strikeout numbers. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs notes that his fastball is “is 92-96 with a good changeup”.

Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com was the first to note that Scherff was the return.

Blue Jays To Acquire Joakim Soria From Diamondbacks

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The Blue Jays are acquiring reliever Joakim Soria from the Diamondbacks, according to John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM.  The Jays will send a pair of players to be named later back to Arizona, according to the team.  Outfielder Jonathan Davis was designated for assignment to open a spot for Soria.

Soria, 37, joins the ninth team of his career.  A legendary closer in his first four seasons with the Royals back in 2007-10, Soria is now more of a useful depth piece.  This year the veteran owns a 4.30 ERA, 24.8 K%, and 6.4 BB% in 29 1/3 innings.  He lengthens a Blue Jays bullpen that also added Brad Hand, Adam Cimber, and Trevor Richards this summer.  Blue Jays Executive Vice President, Baseball Operations & General Manager Ross Atkins saved his big splash for the rotation, acquiring Jose Berrios from the Twins for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson.

The Blue Jays, who return to the Rogers Centre in Toronto tonight for the first time in 670 days, are currently 4.5 games out of a wild card spot.

Kris Bryant Rumors: Deadline Day

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With free agency looming in November, Kris Bryant has likely already played his last game as a Cub.  The 29-year-old sports a 132 wRC+ in 374 plate appearances this year, and has shown versatility in playing at least 80 innings at both infield corners and all three outfield positions.  With a $19.5MM salary on the season, Bryant is still owed about $6.5MM this year.  The 2016 NL MVP winner seems quite likely to be traded today, if the Cubs can muster up a return better than a compensatory draft pick.  We’ll put the latest Bryant updates right here…

Latest Updates

  • The Giants and Bryant “are one pairing to watch,” tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network.  The Cubs are making trades left and right, sending Craig Kimbrel to the White Sox and Javier Baez to the Mets today.

Earlier Updates

  • “It’s not a sure thing that [the] Cubs trade Bryant at all,” tweets Andy Martino of SNY.  That would certainly qualify as a surprise.
  • The Rays are talking with the Cubs about both Bryant and Craig Kimbrel, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.  Rosenthal notes that the Cubs may not necessarily package the two together, and a deal does not appear to be close.
  • The Mets and Cubs “remain apart in Kris Bryant talks,” tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

Brewers Acquire Daniel Norris From Tigers

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The Brewers are finalizing a deal to acquire lefty reliever Daniel Norris from the Tigers, tweet Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.  MLB.com’s Jason Beck first broke news of the trade discussions, and he hears that minor league starter Reese Olson is heading back to the Tigers.  The deal is done, according to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.

Norris, 28, has struggled to the tune of a 5.89 ERA, 25.5 K%, and 9.6 BB% in 36 2/3 innings this year for Detroit.  The southpaw has been done in by a .354 batting average on balls in play, so better things may be on the horizon.  Plus, Norris has stifled lefties, whiffing more than 30% of them against a 7% walk rate.  He’s due for free agency after the season, so he’s a clear trade candidate for the Tigers.  Norris is earning $3.475MM on the season.

Norris was drafted in the second round by the Blue Jays back in 2011.  He was the key piece in the Jays’ acquisition of David Price in a deadline deal of six years ago, along with Matthew Boyd.  Back then, Norris was a 60-grade prospect with the potential of a frontline starter.  However, Norris battled numerous injuries in his Tigers career.  He made a career-high 29 starts in 2019, but switched to the bullpen permanently last August when Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize hit the scene.  Though Norris has mostly pitched in low-leverage situations for the Tigers this year, he did work his way up in the bullpen pecking order in July.

This month the Brewers have been relying on Josh Hader and Devin Williams in high leverage situations, with Williams activated from the IL for elbow discomfort on Tuesday.  In addition to Hader, the Brewers’ pen includes lefty Brent Suter.

Olson, 21, was a 13th round pick out of high school by the Brewers back in 2018.  He’s got a 4.30 ERA, 26.9 K%, and 11.9 BB% in 14 High-A starts this year.

White Sox Sign Kyle Crick To Minor League Deal

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The White Sox have signed reliever Kyle Crick to a minor league deal, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Crick, 28, posted a 4.44 ERA, 19.6 K% and 17.8 BB% in 24 1/3 innings this year, though he was able to avoid allowing any home runs.  Crick worked at 92.6 miles per hour this year, up from 2020, but well down from his 95-96 days of 2017-19.  The Pirates designated Crick for assignment and ultimately released him earlier this month.

Crick was drafted 49th overall out of high school back in 2011 by  the Giants as compensation for the loss of free agent Juan Uribe, luring him away from TCU.  Crick was viewed as a potential frontline starter back then.  Never able to work out his control issues, by 2017 Crick was permanently moved to the bullpen.  In January 2018, the Giants traded Crick and Bryan Reynolds to the Pirates for Andrew McCutchen.  Crick had success for the ’18 Pirates as a setup man, but he hit the IL for triceps tightness in April 2019.  At the end of that season, Crick underwent surgery on his right index finger after a fight with Felipe Vazquez, after Crick refused to turn off his music.  He dealt with shoulder and lat strains last year, making only seven appearances.  Crick then landed on the COVID-IL to start this season, and dealt with a triceps strain back in May.

If the White Sox add Crick to the 40-man roster, they’ll be able to control him beyond this year as an arbitration eligible player.  The Sox recently added Ryan Tepera in a trade with the Cubs, who will join Liam Hendriks, Ryan Burr, Garrett Crochet, and Michael Kopech in high-leverage situations.

Phillies, Pirates Swap Minor Leaguers

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The Phillies are acquiring minor league lefty Braeden Ogle from the Pirates, tweets Robert Murray of FanSided.  The Pirates will receive catcher Abrahan Gutierrez, according to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.  Mackey also notes that the trade “likely plays into the Pirates’ impending Rule 5 crunch,” in that Ogle would be more likely to be taken than Gutierrez.  The Phillies have since announced the trade.

Ogle celebrates his 24th birthday today – happy birthday, Braeden!  The southpaw was drafted in the fourth round out of high school by the Pirates back in 2016, signing for above slot.  As of 2019, when he was in A-ball, Ogle moved to a bullpen role.  After finishing 2019 in High-A, Ogle was able to jump to Triple-A this year after the lost 2020 minor league season.  In 31 2/3 innings, he’s punched out nearly 31% of batters, but has also walked nearly 17%.  Ogle hasn’t appeared on a prospect list for a while, but before 2018 Baseball America assigned him a 50 grade on account of a 94-96 mile per hour fastball as well as a decent slider and changeup.

Gutierrez was one of the players the Pirates were to receive in the Tyler Anderson trade with the Phillies that fell through, notes Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  Gutierrez, 21, is hitting .288/.420/.429 in 2019 Low-A plate appearances this year. Prior to the season, Baseball America gave him a 40 grade, noting that Gutierrez “projects as a backup catcher if he can quicken his bat speed and make harder contact.”  He projects as an average defender, according to BA.  Gutierrez originally signed with the Braves out of Venezuela in 2017, but he was one of the 13 prospects who had his contract voided when GM John Coppolella was banned from MLB for life for circumventing international signing rules.  Gutierrez kept his $3.53MM bonus from the Braves, but then was able to sign a new contract with the Phillies.

The Phillies’ bullpen currently sports a 4.57 ERA.  Lefty Ranger Suarez has been their highest-leverage reliever of late.  They have another southpaw in Jose Alvarado, who has an 8.68 ERA and 21 BB% in his last ten appearances.

Rays Acquire Shawn Armstrong From Orioles

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The Rays have acquired reliever Shawn Armstrong from the Orioles, for cash considerations, according to Baltimore.  Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com was first with the news.

Armstrong, a 30-year-old righty, was thought to be a saves candidate for the Orioles back in March.  However, he started his season with trips to the paternity and COVID-19 list.  After that Armstrong struggled mightily, with an 8.55 ERA in 20 innings – including five home runs allowed.  By June Armstrong was designated for assignment by Baltimore, clearing waivers and joining Triple-A Norfolk.  Armstrong spoke to Kubatko about his tumultuous start to the season, a good reminder of the human side of the game.  Things went better for Armstrong in his 17 innings there, as he posted a 3.18 ERA with a 26.6% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate.

The Rays would need to add Armstrong to their 40-man roster to deploy him in their big league bullpen, which has endured significant turnover this year.  Pete Fairbanks has seen the highest-leverage work this month, but he just hit the IL yesterday for shoulder inflammation.  Collin McHugh went on the IL recently as well.  Also yesterday, Diego Castillo was sent to the Mariners, with JT Chargois joining the Rays.  Matt Wisler, acquired in June, has played a prominent role this month.  And Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen were acquired from the Brewers back in the May Willy Adames deal.  Nick Anderson, one of the club’s top relievers from last year, is currently on a minor league rehab assignment.

If the Rays do put Armstrong on their 40-man roster, they’ll retain control of him as an arbitration eligible player, since he entered the season with just over three years of MLB service time.

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