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Archives for May 2007

A’s Acquire Snelling For Langerhans

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According to Baseball Digest Daily, the A’s have acquired Chris Snelling from the Nationals for the just-received Ryan Langerhans.  I hope neither guy bought a condo.

Pretty interesting swap between Billy Beane and Jim Bowden.  Snelling, aka Doyle (his middle name) in U.S.S. Mariner world, was a cult favorite for many Mariners fans.  His inclusion in the Jose Vidro deal this winter was met with great disdain.  Oddly, Langerhans shows up as his fifth most comparable player according to Baseball Prospectus. 

Langerhans is a little older, and has done a better job staying healthy.  Both players can handle multiple outfield positions (well, not at once) and know how to draw a walk. They’ve got eerily similar PECOTA projections, so maybe it was just a matter of each GM preferring to bet on the other guy’s outfielder.  I think the best case scenario is that one of these guys develops into Jeromy Burnitz.

Check out Chris Needham’s take on the trade over at Capitol Punishment.

Time For Yankees/Phils Rumors?

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With the Yankees struggling so much to assemble a healthy five-man rotation, it was only inevitable that rumors will begin to surface about a trade between the Yankees and Phillies, given the latter’s surplus of starting pitchers and Brian Cashman’s regret a few years ago at letting Jon Lieber get away.

Not only does Philly have six starters on the big league roster, but J.A. Happ — another lefty — has been dominating International League hitters (2.05 ERA, 10.23 K/9, .194 BAA) providing the appearance of organizational depth when it comes to starting pitching.

But unless the Phillies get a deal that is decidedly in their favor, it’s hard to believe they can afford to move a starter.  The reassignment of Brett Myers to the bullpen has coincided with the team’s stretch of good play, and Freddy Garcia is still struggling to move the radar gun above 90.  While Happ has been good, he’s also walked 13 in 22 innings.

The bottom line is that the Phillies’ depth at starting pitching isn’t as strong as it appears on the surface.  And since the team is winning, perhaps the Phillies shouldn’t fix what ain’t broke.

Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere".

A’s Not Discussing Harden?

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Both Buster Olney and Tim Brown have written about Rich Harden trade possibilities in recent days.  It seemed odd that talks would be going on with such an uncertain player, however.  Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle throws water on the fire, with a team source indicating to her that the A’s are not having trade talks involving Harden.

But usually where there’s smoke, there’s fire.  I would think Billy Beane has had Harden’s name come up in a conversation or two; perhaps back in early April when he was flashing his ace stuff with three quality starts.

It’ll be fun if Billy Beane throws a fire sale this summer (well, not for A’s fans).  It might be hard to get anything near full value for Harden, even though he’s the one with star potential.  Dan Haren, on the other hand…he could challenge for Cy Youngs as a Met. 

Three Teams Interested In Lawrence

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Brian Lawrence couldn’t crack Colorado’s rotation, so the 31 year-old soft-tosser is now a free agent.  Since teams aren’t willing to give up much on May 2nd, Lawrence has multiple suitors.  The Denver Post reports that the Orioles, Tigers, and Padres have interest.

Tim Brown reported yesterday that Detroit is on the prowl for pitching, and the loss of Jaret Wright created a vacancy for the O’s.  Most likely, though, Lawrence returns to the Padres and tries to re-establish himself at Triple A.  He had flirted with San Diego in the offseason before David Wells signed. Boomer has not fared well in the early going.  Nor has Clay Hensley, but both have earned another month to set things right based on past results.

The Padres may feel an extra need for pitching depth if top pitching prospect Cesar Carrillo needs elbow surgery.  A healthy Carrillo likely would’ve been better than Hensley, Wells, or Lawrence (PECOTA called for a 4.63 ERA; ZiPS said 4.21).

Mike Plugh On Kosuke Fukudome

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Mike Plugh is a Japanese baseball guru, and he’s writing quite a bit these days.  I first caught on to his reading with the Matsuzaka Watch.  He also has a Yankees blog called Canyon of Heroes, and has been featured at Baseball Prospectus regularly.   

Following my April 29th post on Japanese right fielder Kosuke Fukudome, I asked Mike whether he thought Fukudome could play third base or center field capably.  Not only did Mike answer that question, but he gave some interesting background on Fukudome in general.  His thoughts are below.

On which positions Fukudome could play:

Fukudome would be an excellent Red Sox outfielder, and he’d hit a million doubles in that park. His days as an infielder are finished, but I think he could play any of the outfield positions. He’s best in right though. Center would be an option, but not the most attractive one from a defensive standpoint.

What we can expect offensively:

He is an on base machine with power to the gaps. He won’t be a home run slugger, but he’ll be standing on first or second base after about 40% of his plate appearances. 

On Fukudome’s personality and attitude:

He’s a competitor too. Kind of a throwback guy. No dyed hair, jewelry, image enhancements. Buzz cut, square jaw, intense eyes. Not that those things make you a good or bad player, but fans will be turned on by his serious approach.

On possible interested teams:

I think it’s premature to say who is or who isn’t interested in Fukudome. I happened to know that several MLB clubs are going to make a serious run at him. I can’t say who those teams are for confidentiality reasons, but it will be a multi-team battle for his services. He should command in the $12-15 million range over 3 or 4 years. It will be a very good buy for whichever team he chooses. The Red Sox would benefit from the additional TV coverage they’d receive, but a lot of clubs would like to break into the Japanese market and have scouts over here on a permanent basis.

MetsBlog Talk Radio

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Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog has started up a web/podcast called MetsBlog Talk Radio.  Matthew’s already got some quality guests lined up, including Buster Olney.  Check out the show tonight at 6:00 eastern/5:00 central.  And if you miss it, you can download it from Itunes.

Also, some reading material: Kevin Alderman chats with John Lopez of the Houston Chronicle.  Lopez seems Morgan Ensberg and Luke Scott as some trade candidates later this year.

And you have to check out Cole Hamels Facts (CHF).  Sample fact: "Cole Hamels refers to himself in the fourth person." 

Tim Brown’s Latest

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I hadn’t really noticed the MLB Experts Blog from Tim Brown and Jeff Passan until recently.  Yahoo’s main baseball guys have some quality rumors, and I’ve been missing out.  Let’s catch up by digging through some recent posts:

A’s Shop Harden To Red Sox

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Yahoo’s Tim Brown has a source indicating that Billy Beane has called the Red Sox to see if they’d be interested in oft-injured flamethrower Rich Harden.  Brown also knew some teams Beane didn’t call about Harden: the D’Backs, Dodgers, and Devil Rays.  He speculates that buzzing Boston could be an attempt to lure the Yankees.

Boston’s strength is it’s starting pitching, so it seems an odd area to upgrade.  Most likely this was just Billy and Theo BSing and it somehow turned into a trade rumor.  But can you imagine the Red Sox rotation on paper?

Matsuzaka
Beckett
Schilling
Harden
Wakefield

Then in ’08, the Red Sox could let Schilling walk and plug Lester in, without losing much.  Of course, a healthy Harden is like some sort of mirage.  Seeing Harden on a Major League mound is as rare as seeing me at the office past 4:52.  (What?  I have a 5:09 train I like to catch).

We could throw around a bunch of Red Sox prospect names in speculation, but why?  Nothing’s getting done until Harden strings together five healthy starts.

Brown says Oakland could go for a full-blown fire sale if they’re out of contention in July.  Future free agents Mike Piazza, Milton Bradley, Jason Kendall, and Joe Kennedy would be prime tradin’ chips.

Locking Up Young Stars

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Locking up young potential star players through their arbitration years has become quite trendy in baseball.  Going year-to-year in arbitration with a Joe Mauer type is a thing of the past.  A few might slip through the cracks – an unhappy Ryan Howard might not find common ground with the Phillies through his arb years.  But it appears that most players are willing to sacrifice $5-10MM to set themselves and their families up for life.  Since the deals sometimes steal a year or two of free agency, we can expect even weaker free agent classes in the future despite more money to spend.

Rob Bradford of the Boston Herald has a good discussion of this concept up at his blog.  He’s got some quotes from GMs that may be telling.  Brian Cashman talks about how the Yanks have tried it and haven’t had much success.  That makes me wonder whether some covert talks have gone on with Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang.  J.P. Ricciardi talks about his newfound skepticism of the process, most likely because of Eric Hinske. 

Jonathan Papelbon has talked to his agents about long-term possibilities, but there’s been no dialogue with the Red Sox.  As Bradford writes, he is in a unique place because you don’t find a ton of star rookie closers.  2005 rookies like Jeff Francoeur, Garrett Atkins, Ryan Zimmerman, Felix Hernandez, and Ervin Santana could start talks on long-term deals during or after this season.

O’s Face Rotation Vacancy

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The Orioles are currently 12-14, 5 games out in their division and 2.5 games out for the wild card.  With the Yankees floundering a bit, they can at least allow themselves to dream about a playoff spot.  It’s time to start pondering possible improvements to push the club to the next level.

What they really need is a power bat; the Orioles are 11th in the league with a .392 SLG.  However, management may view starting pitching as a more pressing concern.  The starters collectively have a 4.72 ERA (10th in the league), and Jaret Wright is out indefinitely with shoulder concerns.  Not that Wright would be helping that 4.72 mark if he was out there.

The O’s can take solace in Erik Bedard’s strong peripherals as well as indications (before last night) that Daniel Cabrera had turned a corner with his control.  But Steve Trachsel (0.79 K/BB) and Adam Loewen (0.75 K/BB) are precariously perched atop decent ERAs not built to last.  Loewen at least can blame his abnormally strong opposition, but Trax is a long shot to keep pitching well.

Hayden Penn is undergoing surgery, leaving Jeremy Guthrie and Brian Burres as possible replacements for Wright.  Guthrie, a former first rounder, is a nice gamble under Leo Mazzone.  Still, PECOTA doesn’t see he or Burres coming in under a 5.00 ERA this year.  Jeff Zrebiec mentions past trade discussions about Josh Fogg and Byung-Hyun Kim, options that are none too inspiring.

The Orioles often spin their wheels and tread water, but the Yanks’ struggles could present an opportunity to bring respectability back to the franchise.  To do so, they need to acquire an ace starter.  We’re probably at least a month off from such a possibility, and I doubt the Indians end up trading C.C. Sabathia as speculated here.  Carlos Zambrano could be that available ace, if the O’s would send Loewen to the Cubs.  Dontrelle Willis and Brad Penny are a couple of other names the Orioles could consider to bolster their rotation.  Baltimore certainly has a few young arms the Marlins would covet.

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