Mets fans are already in near-revolt mode, so the tweet from Jon Morosi that the Mets likely don't "have a real shot" at Jarrod Washburn will only stoke the fires further.
It isn't necessarily clear that the Mets should want Washburn, of course. He was a disaster in Detroit, posting a 7.33 ERA in 43 innings with unimpressive peripheral stats (16 walks, 21 strikeouts). Now 35, he's projected by ZIPS for a 4.59 ERA in 2010, though if his stint with the Tigers meant his production has fallen off a cliff, he won't approach that.
For comparison, ZIPS has Jon Niese projected with a 4.57 ERA, with Nelson Figueroa checking in at 5.06. While the Mets could have used some additional pitching, it isn't clear that Washburn is enough of an upgrade to justify a contract.
I would revolt more if they signed Washburn. Relax, develop some young players, and wait for next year.
That works…except for those of us who happen to have tickets for THIS year!
;-p
Next year? Wait for the next 5-7 years is more likely. This team is horrible, shut it down, trade what you can and rebuild.
Next year?? right….more like the nex 5-7 years. Trade what you can and rebuild.
I think the repeated NY Mets front office/management statements about plenty of money and payroll room for improvements are now definitely in the BS category.
honestly if they sign washburn to a deal for like 2-3 mill for one year, the fans could be happy cause while itd be high ick high reward, the mets would only be out 2-3 mill is washburn tanks again
Oh yeah. Just more than 5MM and the deal gets bad.
Washburn is fine at the right price. And while people talk about his disaster as a Tiger, they completely forget that he threw 100+ innings of sub 3 ERA baseball for the Mariners. The guy was a rock for the M’s in 09.
The real Washburn is somewhere between his 09 M’s and 09 Tigers season. An ERA in the 4.50 region sounds about right. Nothing wrong with 180 innings at that ERA if the contract is $3-5m.
One of the biggest reasons for Washburn’s great first half is LUCK. Next, would be Seattle’s defense.
Think about Washburn: A fly ball pitcher. You have Jason Bay, A replacement for Beltran for like 2 months and whomever they decide to start in right.
A 4.5 ERA seems generous to me…
Next Year? More like the next 5-7 years. Trade what you can and just try to rebuild. This team is horrible.
Should Mets fans not be upset? Their management is the most poorly run in MLB, especially when compared to their payroll. If anything other fans of other teams should find solace that they don’t have to deal with the constant nonsense Met fans have to and sympathize with them.
As long as Washburn forces Perez out of the rotation and not Niese, all is well.
Niese should be guaranteed a rotation spot, as he is MLB ready and hes actually got a good shot at being above average.
Perez has upside and owed $24M while Washburn is no better than Livan.
Niese is coming off a serious injury and needs to ease back in to pitching in AAA to come up sometime late in the season.
Washburn, even though he is by no means good, is > Livan.
Washburn’s Career FIP = 4.60
Livan’s Career FIP = 4.44
So actually, Livan > Washburn
So based off that logic, you’d rather have Gary Sheffield at this point in his career than say, Curtis Granderson for the upcoming season? Washburn is the better pitcher right now. Livan had some nice seasons while Wash has always been slightly below league average with a few exceptions.
Last season:
Livan = 4.44 FIP
Washburn = 4.58 FIP
Plus, Livan pitched more innings.
Both are projected to have around 4.6-4.8 FIP this season.
Huzzah for ZIPS! With it, we don’t even need to watch the 2010 season!
All I’m gonna say is don’t believe what some numpty with a calculator writes in prediction.
I could write some incredibly long winded explanation about how wrong and dumb you are… but I’ll just go with EPIC FAIL.
3 likes so far, compared to your.. nevermind?
Epic Fail – So says the smiley.
So ZIPS is a pointless stat, but “likes” are proof of something?
That was meant for Indestructible, of course.
Nah of course not. I guess it was pointless making that fact.
It doesn’t surprise me that so many people “like” your numbers hating post. Most of the people on here might crap themselves if they went to fangraphs.com and realized there might be better things than heart, grit, and hustle to measure a players value.
I cant see why the mets cant target a guy like Erik Bedard
i mean hes got ace stuff
and yeah he will probably get injured
but that would have been the same if mets had signed Sheets
I don’t think Bedard has even started throwing yet. Torn labrum is one of the worst injuries for a pitcher to come back from. Anyway, he hates the media and I’m not sure how well he would deal the high-pressure, constant media attention of NYM.
Brad Radke pitched half a season with a torn labrum, including playoff starts…
Just sayin.
I really think this is the kind of pitcher the Mets need (they also need a potential #2 starter like Bedard) but Washburn will eat innings and post a 4.5 ERA. It won’t make for a pretty rotation but it’ll be a helluva a lot better than whatever they have planned for now.
Seriously Omar, did you forget that the team needs to pitch as well? That rotation right now is terrible.
But how is that an upgrade when Niese, Figueroa, and every other pitcher in their minors can post basically the same numbers?
The Mets need quality if they want to get anywhere. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to be coming from this year’s FA pool.
Figueroa, that is debatable. Niese – yes, Niese actually looks pretty promising. But not almost every other pitcher. Washburn eats innings at just below league average – other pitchers from the minors could explode after a few starts because they aren’t able to pitch that many innings, or they aren’t able to adjust to the hitter’s own adjustments. Washburn is enough of a veteran to be able to do that.
I don’t think they contend this year, whether they sign Washburn + Bedard or not.
Again, it’s better to just use minor league pitchers who wouldn’t usually have a chance than spend millions without contending.
You don’t have to give all those innings to one pitcher anyway.
A brilliant strategy if your main goal is to compete with the Nats.
If you want to win games though, then you need to have inning eaters or your rotation and bullpen will be toast by the break.
Right, like one or two games above replacement will be worth the millions he wants?
Inning eaters are useless when they put up 5 ERA innings. Do you know he pitched less innings than Livan last season?
Basically, you would be resigning Livan — and we all know how that turned out.
That money is better spent elsewhere: like maybe a competent medical staff.
(Bleh, I keep pressing the “like” button by accident…)
I don’t think it’s that Washburn would be a bad option, i think it’s that the mets front office doesn’t even seem like it’s trying anymore (minus the Bay signing). It’s like they’ve just had enough. That’s what i would be upset about if i was a mets fan. It’s like they know they won’t make it this season, so they decided just to put out last years team, and hope noone starts a riot. That’s what i would be upset about anyway. If they went for Washburn, at least it would show they’re trying to be aggressive. If i was Omar at this point, even though he’s not making a alot of the decisions anymore, i would try to rebuild. Trade your stars (Wright, Reyes, Santana, and Bay at the deadline or something), and hope you can compete in a few years.
Remember Washburn did have a GREAT first half for the Mariners.
He had an unsustainable first half as shown by his FIP and his LOB%. That is why he fell of a cliff. He was getting lucky as hell. Bjsguess is right, he is around a 4.5-5 era pitcher by seasons end and at 3.5 he is worth it but anything over 5 is an overpay.
Mr. Washburn will take the Twins’ offer by the end of the week. The Twins are gonna look pretty dumb when he does so.
and yes, i realize washburn rejected the 5M offer, but i’m sure the Twins will still negotiate with him..
Agreed.
Next year, i think not. Trade what you can for a decent return and then start to rebuild. Mets will not be in the picture this year or next year with this team. They need tos tart over.
Sorry for 17 of the same comments…..
It isnt missing out on Washburn or Marquix that nearly has us in revolt. It is the blatant mishandling of key players (Beltran and Reyes), the signing of Bay when nobody else was bidding because of his defense when no statistic shows that he is better than Holliday. It’s not offering Piniero 2/18 when a jump in GB% isn’t an unheard of thing. It’s signing Cora for 2 mill when it seems Lopez and Huddy may not cost more than 5 or 6. Tatis wasn’t a bad signing but take his money Cora’s and what we offered to Molina, what Dessens will make when he makes the squad and Francoeur at 5.5 we could have had Lopez and Piniero. It is Jerry and Omar basically annointing Santos our starting C with a career 680 OPS in the minors and giving what could be the worst everyday player in Baseball (minus Betancourt) in Frenchie an everyday job and paying him like a 2 win player. Omar along with GMDM and Wade are easily approaching Bavasi status.
Since Mets fans love blaming the GM for everything..name one GM the Mets have had that made all the right moves. Go ahead we are all waiting. If you been a Mets fan long, you’ll notice this organization is notorious for stuff like this and while the GM’s have changed..the owners HAVENT.
That’s an easy one … Jack Zduriencik.
(Unfortunately, he made all the right moves as GM of the Mariners.)
“Bad GM’s” for $400 please, Alex. Oooooh, the Daily Double!!
Cashen? One of the main reasons why this team has had crap GMs is because of the refusal to acknowledge the advanced metrics crowd. Imagine Andrew Friedman with Minayas payroll. Davey Johnson was an early proponent of sabermetrics and i am sure that rubbed off on the FO
Yes they have, Doubleday sold shares and Wilpon became the head honcho. The mets are horrible, period. They need to go into a rebuilding mode.
No matter how extensive the GM’s duties or how far his reach, he can’t realistically set the agenda or tone for ownership. So if the the Wilpons REALLY want change, they need to rebuild the entire picture – without them in it!
I know Wilpon was also part owner, but now he has total control.
Washburn has shown he can thrive in a big ballpark. This couldn’t have been made more obvious last season, when he had a great ERA in Seattle, then blew up in Detroit. Citi Field is widely regarded as a pitchers park, and I actually think he could be a good fit.
Wrong. He showed he could pitch great with a big ballpark and a tremendous defense.
Met’s defense stinks.
Comerica is actually middle of the pack when it comes to park factors.
Plus, he wasn’t good in Safeco for 3 years prior to 09 so there goes your logic.
The guy had a fluke 1st half and then regressed back into his true form. Happens all the time. Again, as Rodney stated, it also helped Washburn that he had a great defense in Seattle.
I think Sheets was the last legitimate risk to take from the free-agent pool. If the Mets are going to significantly upgrade their pitching before Opening Day it’s going to mean a willingness to package someone like Mike Pelfrey in a trade to a team who has a bona fide #1 or #2 starter with a big contract they’re trying to unload. Perhaps someone like Carlos Zambrano — who would have to waive his no-trade clause and, so far, has said he’s staying in Chicago — or Roy Oswalt who the Mets almost obtained in a trade a couple of years ago. Not sure if the Astros would still be interested. But that’s how it will likely happen, if it happens at all.
Among Met fans there are mixed feelings about being willing to part with Pelfrey. Many feel he is about to have a breakout year and given he is under control for several years it would be nuts to trade him. Others — myself included — believe he will continue to be inconsistent under the microscope in New York (especially as a former #1 pick) and the team should package him now, given his upside, for a bona fide top end starter.
I agree with you on the Pelfrey front. His mental issues could always be a problem in a big market like NY no matter how much he can say he’s over them. We should cash in if possible. Nothing against Big Pelf at all but for the right deal, he can be expendable.
When healthy, I like Maine much better and I’m expecting good things out of him this year.
Completely agree, nothing against Pelfrey but I think you’ve got it nailed. Maine is the kind of guy who actually does well in NY. Comes in with low expectations and wows people. Pitched something like 26 scoreless innings his first year. Stepped up in second to last game of ’07 (when the world was crashing around the team) and pitched a 1-hitter to pull the Mets into a first place tie with Philly, who had lost to the Nats that day. He had already pitched on the big stage in the playoffs, but that really showed me something.
Exactly. Maine produces when put in that position. Plus, seeing him on MLB Network a couple of weeks back gives me alot of confidence in him right now that he’s healthy and ready to compete again.
As the rotation stands now, I would put Maine #2 and Pelfrey #3 just to take the pressure of Mike alittle bit. Besides, the rotation “order” doesn’t matter much in the regular season I think. Anything to help Pelfreys head.
If any remembers the Randy Quaid role from Major League 2, that’s how I feel about the New York Mets right now.
Do you have your Mr. Met shirt with the blackout teeth ready for this season?
Do you have your Mr. Met shirt with the blacked out teeth ready for the start of the season?
the only one that really needs to get traded is OMAR MINAYA worst gm in national and american league, i’m not sure what he looks for in a ballplayer but from his track record it seems to be if youre 34-37 and want millions than he wants them on the roster oh and i left out falling apart.