Lots to get to on this Monday- so close to spring training, you can taste the grapefruit, or if your team heads to Arizona, the cactus…
- ESPN.com's Rob Neyer takes the Mariners to task for acquiring too many good players. He makes the point that "this is a good problem to have", but that the Mariners might have been better off simply letting Ken Griffey Jr. go. What he's saying makes some sense- there are a finite number of at-bats, of course- but when that is the worst thing you can say about the Seattle offseason, it's been a tremendous offseason.
- The New York Post's Joel Sherman points out that Seattle's GM, Jack Zduriencik, was an employee of the Mets for well over a decade. New York promoted Omar Minaya, Jim Duquette and Gary LaRocque instead, and Zduriencik headed to the Brewers. Sherman also takes the Mets offseason to task in this piece.
- FoxSports.com's Jon Morosi is reporting that despite a 30-day negotiation window closing, the Astros may still be sold. Maury Brown at The Biz of Baseball describes Houston owner Drayton McLane's current position as "make me an offer I can't refuse."
- The Boston Herald's John Tomase discusses the pros and cons of Boston bringing back Josh Beckett.
- Dave Cameron of Fangraphs wants people to calm down about projection systems. My projection is that people won't.
First Odds % Ends of the day…
Rob Neyer doesn’t know what he is talking about when it comes to him saying “let Jr. go”
Garko was a great signing. He could form an effective platoon with either Griffey or Kotchman.
or both.
Took the words right from me.
the mariners only had 3 players with more than 500 Abs. they had 19 with over 100 though. i guess they like that, and it works when you have several spots with inconsistent offensive production.
also, felix threw 238 innings, with washburn gone, no one else threw 100. i realize they added lee, but he is replacing 133 PHENOMENAL innings from washburn. with their other additions and the continued progression of gut and lopez and hopefully snell and RRS and others………..i STILL can’t see how they won 85 last year, and think they’d be lucky to come up with it again this year.
I completely disagree with you. They won last year with great defensive and solid pitching. Their team is improved this year so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win 90 at least.
they won with great defense and a great pitcher. i hope both the rangers and mariners push the angels, but watching the rangers beat on the m’s last year, and them not addressing a big bat makes me skeptical. 216 innings of 2.70 ball from wash and bedard is nothing to snicker at.
lee is great, i just don’t see it getting done in Sea this year. i hope they have the money to re-up with him and put a sustained run of years together, but i don’t know how long they can ignore consistent production from the middle of the order. have to have something to count on when building a lineup everyday (besides penciling in ichiro)
Have you ever heard of Small ball? That style of play can in some ways, beat winning from the long ball. They have Gutierrez, Bradley, and Lopez who could potentially hit 20 homers each and that’s all they need. Stealing bases, racking up 180-200 hits from certain players, pitching pitching and more pitching. You may underestimate that team but trust me, After Felix and Lee, Snell will catch on…As will Ryan Rowland-Smith. I know what you are saying by them not having a home run hitter, but this is Safeco Field…Not Citizens Bank Park or Yankee Stadium. This is why Jack Z is building the team around Pitching and defense, it’s because there is a good shot that most opposing teams will hit the ball on the ground or in the air. A Jarrod Washburn may be needed for their staff but Ian Snell in that 3 hole in that rotation after Felix and Lee will cause a lot of hitters trouble. cutting down runners, going that extra two feet to track the ball down, going from first to third, stealing bases, the hit and run…thats what will make this team win.
well listing things that everyone getting paid to play should be doing is kind of pointless, but if they’re better at the little things than so be it. im by no means saying wash is good, he’s awful and that’s good evidence of the mariner’s great defense. the production he put up can’t be discounted is all im saying.
trusting that snell and RRS are going to catch on I won’t do. ill take a wait and see approach however.
small ball is very viable, watched whitey ball in st. louis for years. im merely stating my opinion that the m’s will have difficulties simply matching what they did last year, while everyone is talking about them improving significantly. im saying even with the tangible improvements they made, luck and other things (besides defense) might make it difficult for them to improve on 85 wins, even if they play well.
Washburn’s Mariner stats could be because of the defense.
I’m just saying I think that they are going to play well. Not because of the quanity of players they have brought in, but the maturation and quality of the players on their team.
When it comes to luck, There is no answer for that…It is a guess that luck will make them bad or good but why not just say that the Red Sox and Yankees will both lose 100 games because of bad luck that will injure Kevin Youkilis, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Jon Lackey, Jacoby Ellsbury, the rest of their team, and the whole Yankees team.
What you are saying is that your opinion is the Mariners strugling because of bad luck and “other things”. What other things? What makes you think the Mariners won’t be better? They didn’t lose more than they gained? They gained a ton more than any team did this off-season.
I just don’t get what makes you think that the Mariners wont win next year. The style of play that Z has brought to the team is a new more expierenced team with two of the top 5 pitchers in Baseball.
im not saying they will struggle due to bad luck at all. im saying they may have benefited by luck to an extent last year.
09 offense was horrible. in al they were last in runs. last in avg. last in walks. last in obp. second last in slugging.
yet the pitching was good, and it shows that the defense was good, because they lead the league in the areas such as runs and hits, which are controlled by defense, yet in walks, ks, hrs, etc they were middle of the pack in the al.
im contending it is difficult to win 85 games like that. they may have been lucky ( i don’t know how i can describe luck, i think you can imagine how luck may play a small role in baseball) to win 85 last year, and even though they are a better team this year, if luck evens out it may not show up in an improvement in the win column.
thats all ive been trying to say this entire time. if that makes sense. could be wrong and they got screwed every game i wasn’t watching last year and they should have won 95, and this year they’ll get 125 with better luck and better talent, hell if i know.
gotcha.
I guess all we have to do is wait and see.
I mean luck last year could even translate into better luck or even quality playing this year. I do think though that the 2010 Mariners are much better than the 2009 Mariners. With that said I honestly think that there will be no fluke’s for the Mariners this year. I think that they will win 90 games to say the least and display quality Baseball.
two disclaimers:
i realize defense shows up more than in stats, its every game, every pitch and its a huge benefit. and the m’s are good at it.
AND if cliff lee remains on the team until after the deadline or even resigns, i acknowledge they are still only that bat away. they added a 2 and a potential 3 (if you’re optimistic) or 5 in figgins and bradley and obviously have speed and great defense. and with lee one of the best font ends in the game.
and maybe even the a’s are trying to get in on this 4 way rumble? should be a good summer
It’s actually not that hard to describe “luck”. We have things like pythg that shows us a teams expected win/loss based on Runs Scored vs Runs Against. For what it’s worth here are the leaders in that category:
Seattle + 10 Wins
Yankees + 8 Wins
San Diego + 8 Wins
Houston + 6 Wins
Detroit + 5 Wins
Angels + 5 Wins
Florida + 5 Wins
Now, some teams consistently outplay their pythg. The M’s historically have not been one of those teams. Sure, things could have changed with new ownership but the amount of luck last year was flat out amazing.
Put another way, let’s pretend that the 09 Mariners were unlucky – the exact opposite of their actual 09 season. Instead of being 85-77 they would have been 65-97. If nothing changes, they could replay their 09 year and be just as likely to win 65 games as they are to win 85.
So, if you strip away luck how good were the M’s heading into this off-season? My guess is that they should have been a 77-80 win team. That still allows for some good luck. They have made a huge addition in Lee. Filled the loss of Beltre leaving in Figgins. If things go well the M’s are an 85 win team. If they are really lucky they could push 90 wins.
I’m still not sure where the pitching is going to come from. Losing Bedard and Washburn is big. They provided a lot of innings (combined) of sub 3 ERA. Lee can replace that but then you have to acknowledge that there was no pitching upgrade.
thank you, fantastic post bjs, attached something real to my rant on luck, and reiterated my feelings on lee replacing two iffy pitchers who had undeniably great production last year, and its tough to replace, regardless of it being a great pitcher in cliff lee.
Hope this is not a dumb question. I am at a complete as to what PYTHG stands for?
Neyer doesn’t realize the impact of leadership and camaraderie JR. has instilled in the younger players and it will be helpful especially when JR. retires!
Did you know that 15 million blood cells are destroyed in the human body every second? 14,999,999 of those are as a result of Omar Minaya’s name crossing paths with the brain and the evil thoughts he brings pass on through the body. The other one is killed because of curing cuts and things pertaining to that.
Hilarious. Probably true. How does that guy keep a job?
There is still time for the M’s to add a starter that will give them the edge on the Rangers. I think that the M’s as they are will finish 2nd at worst.
A Bedard or Wang signing seems possible, but most are suspecting a trade in the near future.
Beckett is one of those guys who always seems to be great, but not the greatest. I personally think he deserved the Cy when he, as the ONLY 20 game winner that season, came up second to a 19 game winner with slightly better overall stats. I believe that the true objective of a pitcher is to win games, not amass statistics. That said, Beckett is worthy of a handsome contract; one that enables him to be set for life, and incentivizes him to become the best in baseball. Here’s my proposed offer to Beckett:
5 yrs., $90 Million base (paid $15MM, $17MM, $18MM, $19MM and $21MM), $100K bonus for each all-star selection, $500K bonus for each 200K+ season, $500K bonus for each season in which he makes at least 25 starts, $500K bonus for each season in which he maintains an ERA under 3.00 after making at least 15 starts, $1MM bonus for each season in which he wins more than 20 games, $2MM bonus for each season in which he comes in 2nd in Cy Young voting, and $5MM bonus for each season in which he wins the Cy.
My guess is that under this package, Beckett would net about $100MM for the five years. Its also my guess that under this package, Beckett would have his most consistent and best 5 years of performance of his career. Maybe one down year and 4 solid top 5 performances.
Let’s hear comments on value, expected performance, the feasibility of the structure, etc. Don’t just throw stones, though. Tell me what you’d offer if you were Theo.
I like it, but I’d set the base at 82.5. Only scare is this, if he wins the Cy-Young your basically guaranteeing him another $7.6 million.
Pretty sure about half of the incentives are illegal under the CBA. Teams can give incentives for playing time and awards but not for statistical accomplishments. (Which is why you see closers getting incentives based on games finished rather than saves, for example.)
“I believe that the true objective of a pitcher is to win games, not amass statistics.”
It is, and the value of a pitcher who provides his team a good chance to win in the vast majority of his starts cannot be overstated.
However, we’re talking about a pitching award. You should not win a pitching award because you happen to be on a team that was better than your competition was, and the only way we have to try and judge such a thing is his other statistics. We can argue about what stats are best used to base such a judgment on, but I would disagree vehemently if you suggested that wins and losses should even enter the discussion.
Imagine this (admittedly completely contrived and wholly impossible) example: A pitcher makes 34 starts, 240 IP, goes 0-34 with 1.30 ERA and 250 K’s. By win-loss, this is a remarkably terrible pitcher. But it’s clear looking at some of his other numbers that he was remarkably dominant, and even without knowing any other hypothetical performances from pitchers around the league, he should probably win the Cy Young. He was almost certainly the best pitcher in baseball that year, regardless of what his team did for him.
Stupid example? Absolutely, but I just wanted to take it as extreme as possible to illustrate why wins and losses simply shouldn’t matter for a pitching award. Now if we’re talking about how much money each guy should make next season or what his value to a team is, that’s another issue entirely.
If sox thinks he’s become legit four-pitch pitcher after first-half the season, the money will be spent.
he had growing pains of adapting both his change-up in 2006 (+ control) and cutter in 2008 (partially 2009).
I have a feeling they’re accumulating pretty good talent and low salaries to trade for a bigger piece.
“So at that moment Phillips, Minaya, Duquette and Zduriencik all had relatively new roles. Three would ultimately hold the title of Mets GM. One would not. That guy looks like, by far, the best of the group.”
I’m torn between how funny and sad that is. I live in NY so I have a place in my heart for the Mets but I couldn’t help laughing at how badly they *****d up.
I love how Sherman basically compares a GM to a prospect in this case. We definitely lost out on Zduriencik.
And I agree with his 1 year deal idea, except I wanted Gomes instead of Cust. I’m not going to say the Bay signing was a waste, but that money could be used elsewhere next off season. Been saying it since before the contract was signed. I am looking forward to seeing him on the field though.
Yes, shame on them for acquiring so many good players. That’s just not fair to the rest of the teams. they should be banend from the league!