In his column today for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo explores the effect of Arizona's controversial immigration law on baseball. He also shares a few notes from around the league:
- The Blue Jays' huge collection of scouts should have them well-prepared to deal at this year's trade deadline. Cafardo names a slew of players who the Jays could try to move if they're out of playoff contention, noting that the club will "likely listen to anything." The list includes Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay, Alex Gonzalez, Scott Downs, Jose Bautista, John Buck and Jose Molina.
- Molina has thrown out eight of 11 basestealers so far this year, a statistic that could intrigue the Red Sox. However, Cafardo says the Sox "will never deal for a catcher who is all defense, no offense."
- Cafardo suggests that Adam Dunn would be a good fit at DH for the Red Sox in the post-David Ortiz era.
- Jarrod Washburn's time off this spring has given him a few extra weeks to recover from offseason knee surgery, though now teams will have to assess how long it will take Washburn to be major league ready. According to Cafardo, the Dodgers' pitching issues make them look every day like a better fit for Washburn.
- A source tells Cafardo that Elijah Dukes' rumored deal with the Tabasco Olmecas of the Mexican League fell through after Dukes failed to show up for a reporting date. Cafardo indicates that the 25-year-old could end up spending the year away from baseball.
Cafardo ought to do at least a little research before he writes these columns – Wells has a full no-trade.
Well no one is calling about Wells, but why would he block a trade?
Cafardo does mention that in the article, though I think the financial part of Wells’ contract will be a much bigger roadblock than the no-trade clause.
“will never deal for a catcher who is all defense, no offense.”
If its all about pitching and defense then you cant let walks and singles turns into doubles because they’re running at will. Either Vmart has to improve, or maybe he needs to be DH in some big games late in the season and let a real catcher (even with no bat) run the show.
They play the Rays and Yankees 16 times after the all star break, giving away base after base is going to hurt you eventually.
I don’t care if the Red Sox get a Catcher who bats below .200, when Vladimir Guerrero is stealing bases, YOU NEED AN UPGRADE.
Adam Dunn would be a BEAST at Fenway. He’d be a perfect DH.
Oh yeah, as far as Sac Flies go, about five years ago, Dunn went almost two years and 1100 Plate Appearances without getting one and this from a guy who hits way more fly balls then ground balls.
Also, in 2008 (I think) when Big Papi was having problems with his offense, Peter Gammons (the Red Sox talking head on ESPN at the time) said that if Boston’s Front Office was going to go out and get somebody to replace David Ortiz, they were MORE interested in Josh Willingham than Dunn.
If you look at those two guys stats, what you will find is that Willingham will give you about 80% of Dunn’s offense but will cost about 1/3 of what Dunn does.
Also, when you look at their stats, you will find that Willingham has played his home games in pitcher friendly parks whereas Dunn, up until he came to Washington, has played his home games in hitter friendly parks. When you look at their ROAD stats, you will find that Willingham, other than Home Runs, produces as much or more than Dunn (and Jermaine Dye and Pat Burrell).
I know this because I wanted the Reds to trade for Willingham in late 2008 and compared all four players stats from 2006 to 2008.
So, instead of Dunn, look for the Red Sox to go after Willingham instead (if Ortiz continues to struggle).
Red Sox media already salivating over players on a team that is higher than the Sox in the standings.
The Adam Dunn speculation was aimed at future seasons, rather than this 2010. Lowell, Ortiz, and Dunn could all be free agents after this year.
Oh, come on now…we’re on MLBTR, you’re allowed to be a little more creative with your stats than that! He’s also walked over 100 times in every full season of his career, which gives him a very strong career OBP of .383, and therefore a career OPS of .902, both pretty nice numbers. And the biggest reason strikeouts are actually not as bad as they sound are because it limits the chance of grounding into double plays. Adam Dunn has only averaged 8 GIDP’s per 162 games. The biggest flaw in his game is his defense, and obviously playing him at DH would eliminate that factor. I think his numbers are definitely worth it as a DH.
The flip side to the strikeout dilhema is that strikeouts mean he’s not hittnig sac flies or rolling a ground ball over to the right side 180 times a year. I would really like to see how many runs high strikeout guys lose for their teams by failling to put the ball in play with runners on.
On a more optimistic note, striking out involves seeing a lot of pitches, which the red sox like.
Contrary to popular belief, Adam “one tool” Dunn would NOT be a good fit for Boston (or any other Play Off contending team). Why? Because he CHOKES under pressure.
Go and read about his time with the University of Texas. How instead of changing positions (like the Coaches wanted him too) that he instead wanted to remain a QB and then totally quit the team when Chris Simms was signed to be the starting QB.
Go look at his 2006 season with the Reds. That year, the Reds were still in contention for the Play Offs (because the Cardinals were trying to give the NL Central away). Then, on September 4, King Griffey Jr. hurt his toe and would only appear in two Games the rest of the way (as a Pinch Hitter late in the month). Guess who was then called on to be the offensive force in the line up? Dunn. Guess who choked? Dunn.
For the month, in about 80 At Bats, Dunn hit about 160 with 2 Home Runs, 5 RBIs and 35 Strike Outs. Meanhwile, in a similiar number of At Bats, Rich Aurilia, (a guy used to playing in pressure situations) hit about .340 with 4 Home RUns and 17 RBIs.
Look at what happened in Arizona after the Diamondbacks traded for Dunn. In the 44 Games AFTER they acquired Dunn, the offense scored FEWER Runs Per Game than they did BEFORE Dunn was on the team. And the WHOLE reason for taking on Dunn’s remaining salary and giving up three players for him was so that he could IMPROVE their offense.
After the season, the D-backs let Dunn walk and they received NO compensation (because they did NOT want to go to Salary Arbitration with him).
Go and look at ALL of Dunn’s Septembers. What you will find is that his offense TANKS when football season starts. How would YOU as a fan of a Play Off contending team like THAT to happen? Your team pays big money for an offensive threat and when you need him most he disappears.
Furthermore, go and read what Dunn said before the 2009 season. You can find it somewhere on this site. He said he did NOT want to go to the AL and be a DH. My guess is because he KNOWS that once the glove is taken away, he has NO EXCUSE to fail on offense.
As it stands now, he has an EXCUSE to get paid the big bucks. People can (rightfully) say that he is AWFUL on defense but his offense makes up for it. But what happens when you take that excuse (having to play defense) away and Dunn’s SOLE value lies in what he gives you on offense? What happens when he comes to the park EVERY DAY and the ownership, front office, manager, coahes, fellow players, sportswriters and fans EXPECT Dunn to produce on offense?
What do you think would happen when THAT does not happen? The fans and media in Boston (or any other major city) would eat Dunn alive.
Look, Dunn’s mother was upset with Reds broadcasters for when they occasionally got on her son and she stopped listening to their braodcasts. What do you think would happen in a major city? People would tear Dunn to shreds.
Nope, based on Dunn’s history, the best thing for him would be to sign a contract with the Kansas City Royals to be their DH (and occasional Outfielder or First Baseman). That way, he can play in games that don’t really matter (no pressure just like in Washington) and wont have to worry about producing in September (when football season starts) because the Royals will be out of contention.
Then he can drink beer, fish, play video games, be overweight and get paid millions of dollars to do so and not have to worry about pressure or the post season.
Well, the reason I pointed out GIDP’s in reference to strikeouts is I remember reading that people -have- done the research you’re wondering about, and it turns out that high strikeout guys often save more runs for their teams then guys who constantly put it in play. Obviously there are exceptions to both sides; there are plenty of strikeout guys who really don’t help their team out at all, and plenty of guys who put the ball in play all the time and yet almost never hit into double plays. But in general, Adam Dunn is a slow guy who will almost never beat the relay in a double play situation. If he strikes out he may have lost a sac fly, but he also didn’t just lose the team two outs.
I agree with the point on seeing more pitches; that will definitely appeal to the Sox. Also the high walk rate should be nice.
Yes, Wells has had a good 96 ABs- that doesnt erase his last 1,000 bad ABs. And he’s played a bad CF the last 2 years.
Wells is owed 86m after this year, Rowand is owed 24m after this year. Why would the Giants take on that salary?
Is that you, JP?
Royals already have two DHs, one is stuck in minors. No thanks.
No.
But I DO find it very interesting that after Dunn said he did NOT want to be a DH that absolutely ZERO American League teams went after him as a Free Agent.
I also find it interesting that NO team in contention went after him either.
It was reported on this site that Dunn publicly said he would like to play for the Dodgers. Did they go after him? No, they continued after Many R.
A couple of weeks later, it was reported on this site that Dunn publicly said he would like to play for the Cubs. Did they go after him? No, they continued after Milton Bradley.
The Rays signed Pat Burrell.
The Phillies signed Raul Ibanez.
The Angels signed Bobby Abreu.
The ONLY reason Dunn was paid as much as he was by the Nationals was because of their idiot GM, Jim Bowden. Bowden had a fixation on Reds players and personnel and he filled the team and Front Office with them. If it weren’t for Bowden, I think Dunn wouldn’t have even gotten a contract as big as what Abreu signed for.
Oh yeah, speaking of Abreu, from 2004 to 2008 combined, he had more Hits, Doubles, Triples, Stolen Bases, Runs scored, RBIs, a higher Batting Average and a higher On Base Percentage than Dunn (and almost as many Walks) and did so while hitting over 100 FEWER Home Runs than Dunn.
Yet, Abreu could only sign a one year, $6 million dollar contract while Dunn was given a two year, $20 million dollar deal.
Oh and just because JP said something stupid in public doesn’t mean he was wrong and that OTHER GM’s don’t think the same thing….
Aaron Rowand: 11:$12M, 12:$12M
Vernon Wells: 11:$23M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$21M
But see, Vernon Wells is NOT a good ballplayer. You can say he was injured, but then why are you going to trade for an injury-prone guy? Even if you want to argue he’s an upgrade over Rowand- he’s not THAT big of an upgrade to have him for ’13 and ’14 paying him whatever the Jays dont pick up.